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The racial distribution of those who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 but for a Democrat congressperson in 2018:
Those who presumably experienced voter’s remorse are whiter than the electorate as a whole is. That is not the case for those who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 but for a Republican congressperson in 2018:
Has the Democrat electorate become more white over the last four years? Has the Republican electorate become less so? The relatively large share of Hispanics in the faction that shifted towards the GOP from 2016 to 2018 is especially interesting. Trump is probably more relatable to non-whites than Ted Cruz, John Kasich, or Jeb Bush are, despite the latter’s Mexican wife.
On the other hand, maybe I have it backwards. Perhaps the large share of Trump-to-Democrat whites are union member type Democrats who took a chance on Trump and then moved back home in response to a corporate tax cut being Trump’s biggest first term accomplishment. And perhaps a large share of the Clinton-to-GOP non-whites are small business non-traditional Republicans turned off by Trump’s rhetorically hard line immigration stance but ready to back their Chamber of Commerce local Republican representative.
CCES18 variables used: CC18_317(1-2), CC18_412(1-2), RACE
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Does the database allow you to search by educational attianment.
Clinton2016 to GOP2018:
No HS -- 4.0
High school graduate -- 26.6
Some college -- 17.5
2-year -- 12.8
4-year -- 24.3
Post-grad -- 14.8
Trump2016 to Dem2018:
No HS -- 5.7
High school graduate -- 28.6
Some college -- 21.0
2-year -- 12.4
4-year -- 20.6
Post-grad -- 11.6
Not much of one:
From a social point of view, this is bad because it makes a mockery of equality before the law. From a lobbyist's, tax attorney's or consultant's point of view, though, it is very, very good.Replies: @Wency
The idea Trump’s only achievement is a tax cut for the rich is a Democrat talking point with little basis in reality.
Doesn’t seem surprising. When you’re a minority, group solidarity is important for survival. So minorities are more wont to vote consistently and as a bloc. Majorities can afford the luxury of factions and ideologies.
What’s interesting is whether (non-elite) whites are starting to think that way too — even if not actually a minority, being treated like one may prompt the same reaction.
Trump to Democrat whites probably voted for him because they were anti Clinton, but still supported their local Dem congressman. That population will probably go for Biden this time around since he’s much less detestable than Hillary.
I’m a little unclear: are the “swing voters” the first chart (disproportionately white) or the second chart (disproportionately Asian-Hispanic)? Or both?
The one thing that is clear is that blacks are disproportionately not swing voters, so Kuschnerism = FAIL. If Trump wants to square the circle to keep his son-in-law on staff but still win, he can just continue to solicit Jared’s advice but then do the exact opposite of whatever he says.
The mousy juden and his thot wife attached to Trump haven't done shit though. You're right about that.Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Libre
The nominal tax rate, and the nominal corporate tax rate in particular, in the US is a little misleading. The US has more exemptions, credits and other jiggery-pokery than any other developed country, so it is rare that anyone actually pays the nominal US tax rate.
From a social point of view, this is bad because it makes a mockery of equality before the law. From a lobbyist’s, tax attorney’s or consultant’s point of view, though, it is very, very good.
"I brought in $5 billion by closing tax loopholes and used it to offer a tax break to hard-working families!"
It's so obvious that politicians would prefer to operate this way, that I guess I don't understand how they operate any other way in other countries. Maybe Federalism also encourages it somewhat; you end up with more complicated deals, even within the same party.
It’s possible that the second is not just people supporting their chamber of commerce candidate, but people who realized the Trump is Nazi rhetoric of the election was BS. It’s hard to remember now, but the “literally Hitler” meme really was widespread and earnest in 2016.
Or maybe they are “national greatness” Republicans who were worried that Trump would actually get us out of Middle East wars but then realized there was no such danger of that.
What's interesting is whether (non-elite) whites are starting to think that way too -- even if not actually a minority, being treated like one may prompt the same reaction.Replies: @Hapalong Cassidy
Call it the Mississippification of white Americans. If all whites voted the way those in Mississippi did, no Democrat would be elected in any area that is at least 50% white.
Biden just tried to blame Trump for the riots.
Senile Biden really is that stupid.
Biden has many more stupid things to come out of his old mouth.
Trump just needs to stay the course to victory.
Biden will destroy himself and his down vote comrades.
From a social point of view, this is bad because it makes a mockery of equality before the law. From a lobbyist's, tax attorney's or consultant's point of view, though, it is very, very good.Replies: @Wency
I mean, it also works well for politicians, as a way to reward your supporters and punish your enemies. If people are doing something you like, it’s a tax exemption. If they’re doing something you don’t like, it’s a tax loophole that needs to be closed.
“I brought in $5 billion by closing tax loopholes and used it to offer a tax break to hard-working families!”
It’s so obvious that politicians would prefer to operate this way, that I guess I don’t understand how they operate any other way in other countries. Maybe Federalism also encourages it somewhat; you end up with more complicated deals, even within the same party.
The one thing that is clear is that blacks are disproportionately not swing voters, so Kuschnerism = FAIL. If Trump wants to square the circle to keep his son-in-law on staff but still win, he can just continue to solicit Jared's advice but then do the exact opposite of whatever he says.Replies: @Wyatt
Normally, I would agree, but there seems to be a small stirring among blacks due to the media overplaying their hand, Joe Biden being a fuckin’ retard and Trump keeping his mouth shut about the dark folk. I assume that it’s the smarter, less black blacks who realize what’s going on and will either stay home or just go full hog and vote Trump. There aren’t many of them, but shifting 2% of blacks might change the outcome of some elections.
The mousy juden and his thot wife attached to Trump haven’t done shit though. You’re right about that.
The only narrative I can see that justifies the massive prioritization of black voters, is that it is a bankshot way of appealing to the peculiar psychology of fence-sitting white voters, who want to feel that they are doing something Good for the Negroes. So talking up the blackism is meant to tip in a few ambivalent whites in places that actually matter. But Jeez, I gotta think Trump could pick up three white votes by just talking straight for every one nuanced vote he gets with this weird bankshot.Replies: @Nico
The mousy juden and his thot wife attached to Trump haven't done shit though. You're right about that.Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Libre
I can’t say I’ve checked the demographics of every swing state, but my impression is that, with possible exception of Virginia, none of them have an electorally decisive black population. Given that black voters are also the least persuadable, while the recent shift to Trump is welcome, if it has any noticeable effect at all, it will only be in states that are electorally irrelevant.
The only narrative I can see that justifies the massive prioritization of black voters, is that it is a bankshot way of appealing to the peculiar psychology of fence-sitting white voters, who want to feel that they are doing something Good for the Negroes. So talking up the blackism is meant to tip in a few ambivalent whites in places that actually matter. But Jeez, I gotta think Trump could pick up three white votes by just talking straight for every one nuanced vote he gets with this weird bankshot.
The PJs of the East Coast are probably hopeless but if there’s any shift at all in Pennsylvania and Michigan it would be welcome.
Even so, Trump needs to play the race card to whites because that’s really the best card the right has to play.
The only narrative I can see that justifies the massive prioritization of black voters, is that it is a bankshot way of appealing to the peculiar psychology of fence-sitting white voters, who want to feel that they are doing something Good for the Negroes. So talking up the blackism is meant to tip in a few ambivalent whites in places that actually matter. But Jeez, I gotta think Trump could pick up three white votes by just talking straight for every one nuanced vote he gets with this weird bankshot.Replies: @Nico
A small black shift in places like Georgia and Texas could make a difference, though, in keeping those states red for a cycle or two, and that is not a matter to be taken lightly.
The PJs of the East Coast are probably hopeless but if there’s any shift at all in Pennsylvania and Michigan it would be welcome.
Even so, Trump needs to play the race card to whites because that’s really the best card the right has to play.
Is he? Or is he differently detestable?
The mousy juden and his thot wife attached to Trump haven't done shit though. You're right about that.Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Libre
Most of the pro Trump blacks have been blacker than a bag, while BLM seems more a mulatto thing. When your identity is confused, you go crazy and lash out. I know a mulatto who was called white trash and ni–er on the same day.
good finding.
the first graph you have it right on the disgruntled union white bros. although i may also add, perhaps even in larger numbers, the amount of white women that increasingly are the main consumers of the msm feminist and pro-colored propaganda on orange man (and these white women’s suffering husbands). also, the debased white youth trends pro-colored, until they grow out of the nwa records… although increasingly too many don’t grow up, or go insane clown posse wignat and become just as bad if not worse.
on the second one, you also must mention that those small-biz nonwhites were scared by all the fear-mongering of 2016, but then turned around not only due to low taxes but also because orange man wasn’t so bad to the colored (lowest unemployment ever and all that). and in fact, orangey’s law and order stance is increasingly appreciated by these working/middle to upper class nonwhites. closing the border to illegals and building the wall also doesn’t affect these nonwhites as much, as they tend to come legally.
thus it’s a hard balance that Trump tries to achieve if he wants a big coalition, specially if Javanka’s influence throws in more cucking than needed to nonwhites, and the fact that whites are quite split between the based and the cucked. thus we can’t go promising the dissidence everything they want, but perhaps still point in that direction, since whites are still the majority, and the gop-friendly nonwhites will follow to a certain degree. true, some rich Miamians may stay home or go independent if Trump raises tariffs or cancels payroll tax or ups wages or cancels college loan usury (just few easy quick ones that shouldn’t mess with much elites’ panties), and some more may bemoan that their greatgrandma or second cousins can’t all be brought in and be given dollars; however, most of them and other gop-nonwhites will be okay voting again for Trump as long as they aren’t kept outside the wall, and as long as BLM isn’t replaced by Dylan Roofs or whatever, but rather squashed – so all can live, perhaps not the silly Reaganomics dream, but at least a more realistic Trumpian nationalist-populist one.
also, fwiw, the GOP had worse 2018 Congress candidates than the Dems, specially on white issues, where many cucked, while popular near-dissidents were put down even by their own gop party establishment (Moore, Kobach, Sessions).
Yes. The differences are modest, but the Clinton-to-Republican cohort is more educated than the Trump-to-Democrat cohort is.
Clinton2016 to GOP2018:
No HS — 4.0
High school graduate — 26.6
Some college — 17.5
2-year — 12.8
4-year — 24.3
Post-grad — 14.8
Trump2016 to Dem2018:
No HS — 5.7
High school graduate — 28.6
Some college — 21.0
2-year — 12.4
4-year — 20.6
Post-grad — 11.6
Not only, but biggest.
Texas is the only state in the country where whites vote more Republican than non-whites vote Democrat. The Texas strategy writ large would work… for another generation or so, anyway.