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Per t and res, a poll from a few weeks ago with an order of magnitude more respondents concerning net support for California’s Proposition 16 gets a substantially different result:

Compare to the more recent SurveyUSA poll highlighted yesterday:

On the backs of conservative white men, perhaps isonomy will yet be carried forward in California.

Neither Betwise nor PredictIt have markets open on Prop 16, so this is a difficult one to handicap. The webzine’s proprietor has made a thoughtful attempt. He suspects it will fail.

 
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  1. 216 says:

    White conservatives cannot vote their way out of this perma-Bluestan.

    We are constantly told that the fate of Kurds is worth endless, fiscally ruinous war.

    But what of our self-determination?

    Why do liberals have any right to rule us?

    • Replies: @Wyatt
    , @anonymous
  2. Wyatt says:
    @216

    Because our founders didn’t bother to retard proof the Constitution and enshrine political franchise exclusively to responsible people. So now we have irresponsible people doing whatever they goddamn please to the responsibles.

  3. MarkU says:

    Affirmative action – Combating racism by treating people differently depending on what race they are. I really don’t want to live in a world where that is supposed to make sense.

    • Agree: Mr. Rational
  4. res says:

    Thanks, AE. One other disconnect between the two was Survey USA had a dramatic slope by age while Berkeley IGS was almost flat (which I found surprising).

    I am amazed just how different the results of the two polls are. As I said before, hopefully we get another large sample poll on Prop 16.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  5. songbird says:

    I’m actually not 100% opposed to affirmative action. I am just opposed to its core tenets it the West, the ideas that:
    1.) whites owe blacks (and other groups) anything – American whites might owe Indians something but not surly anti-white ones, and not self-abnegation. And, not within the contiguous states, anyone else, and nobody at all within Europe.
    2.) the sexes are interchangeable. They are not.
    3.) Jews should not be subject to it, even when they support it against whites. Any Jew who supports it, should be subject to it, as a Jew, not as a “fellow white person.”
    4.) it’s good for society to have this diversity industry – all these wasted man-hours
    5.) anything dysgenic (encouraging smarter minorities to go to grad school and have low fertility) is ever a sensible economic policy.
    6.) People don’t have a right to self-association within the private sphere.
    7.) That racial grifters don’t degrade the dignity of their own people and others.
    8.) That we can’t acknowledge HBD, or brain drain, or IQ shredders

    So, I’m pretty much against 99% of it, but the idea, often advanced, that nobody anywhere, in any sphere, deserves any special treatment I find to be morally questionable. For instance, I don’t think Hawaiians should have their rents raised until they can’t afford to live in Hawaii. Pretty sure there are plenty of places in the world where someone could make better use of the land – doesn’t mean that everyone should be uprooted everywhere, on every square mile, but the top global performers.

    • Replies: @Rosie
    , @MarkU
  6. @res

    D’oh, I forgot to note why I didn’t include age distributions from the IGS poll–there is virtually no difference by age. That strikes me as a potential mark against the reliability of the IGS poll, but if it’s accurate and younger, less white Californians are as unenthusiastic about affirmative action as older white Californians are, that’s encouraging.

    • Replies: @res
  7. Rosie says:
    @songbird

    I’m actually not 100% opposed to affirmative action.

    Me neither. In fact, I think you almost have to have it in a diverse society. People are going to demand proportional representation in the elite, and nevermind what colorblind conservatives have to say about it. It is what it is. Of course, to acknowledge this is to deny that diversity is a strength rather than a source of mistrust and conflict. Affirmative action is a symptom.

    As far as sex is concerned, I think people are much more accepting of disparities. Noone is seriously going to doubt that the over representation of women in, say, veterinary school, is anything other than a manifestation of aggregate preferences in the population. Demands for parity in tech fields are also silly, and seen as such by most people.

    • Replies: @216
  8. MarkU says:
    @songbird

    I have no issues with extending a little extra help to people from deprived backgrounds or from the lower end of the socioeconomic spectrum. I do however have issues with making such help entirely dependent on skin colour, you don’t have to be black to be poor, neither do you need to be white (or asian) to be wealthy.

  9. Twinkie says:

    Okay, the first graph makes more (intuitive) sense to me.

    This is yet another demonstration that polling or survey results can be manipulated based on numerous variables, including sampling size. They prey on the human desire to glimpse into the future.

    This is why I distrust opinion polls and only trust revealed preferences (including actual voting patterns in elections) in determining what people actually want.

  10. A123 says:

    Does either polling team have an agenda to push?

    This might be on a different issue, as the Berkeley poll had questions on multiple California Propositions.
    _____

    Did anyone compare the sampling to look for underlying differences?

    Oversampling Democrats is a known method the the Fake Stream Media uses to generate fantabulous results for their preferred victor.

    PEACE 😇

  11. 216 says:
    @Rosie

    I don’t feel that white resentment against A/A is winning votes any longer, concern is higher that higher ed is too expensive vis a vis getting dinged at a selective institution.

    The best move for the Right is to demand that it be shifted to class based, so that wealthy minorities don’t benefit, and poor whites will.

    Otherwise, its better that whites accept A/A as a “tax” that we pay out of the (foolish) hope in a fairer society.

  12. res says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    I forgot to note why I didn’t include age distributions from the IGS poll–there is virtually no difference by age.

    I was wondering about that. My inclination is to throw in everything including the kitchen sink, but I think you tend to be better with graphic design choices than I am.

    but if it’s accurate and younger, less white Californians are as unenthusiastic about affirmative action as older white Californians are, that’s encouraging.

    I was pondering that. How about this as a possibility? Suppose there are multiple age related trends involved.

    – How much Prop 16 affects someone. I think the young and less established are much more affected and so likely to be less favorable.
    – How indoctrinated someone is in “diversity uber alles.” Making the young more favorable.

    These two roughly cancel leaving a small peak in the middle which is people who are well established in their careers, but still young enough to be fairly indoctrinated.

    There is some demographic counterargument. For example, young Hispanics and especially blacks would expect to be affected positively so should be more favorable–and there are many young Hispanics. But I think my basic idea is sound.

    What do you (or others) think?

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
  13. res says:

    I think it is worth reemphasizing the point t made in the other thread about the wording of poll questions being influential. Here is a link to my comment with details of the wording in the different polls.
    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/the-end-of-isonomy/#comment-4201105

    As I said there, I suspect the Survey USA wording:

    6 The next statewide ballot measure, Proposition 16, would allow diversity to be considered as a factor in public employment, education, and contracting decisions. Are you …?

    Would be more likely to generate a reflexive “diversity is good” response than the Berkeley IGS presentation of the ballot text.

  14. anonymous[200] • Disclaimer says:
    @216

    They don’t. It’s not just race or sex, they want to discriminate based on national origin, too. There will endless ways to prevent whites from obtaining employment or college admission.

    What they’re doing is going to eventually lead to war. Sri Lanka’s civil war was precipitated by their racist affirmative action policies. Affirmative action policies enacted in various countries like Malaysia, Sri Lanka, South Africa mostly benefit those elites and connected cronies. The vast majority of the poor stay poor and the economy tends to go to hell thanks to the promotion of incompetence and corruption thanks to quotas. Malaysia has weathered better than the rest but that’s because they didn’t interfere that much in the Chinese dominance in the business sector but there has been a major brain drain due to severe college admission discrimination. A lot of Malay political rhetoric is based on racial/religious identity, some similar to the anti-white demagoguery in the US.

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