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Polls Oversample Democrats Part CXXVIII
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Whether the methodology is fatally flawed or a consequence of the shy Trump voter phenomenon, the post-election polls do not inspire much confidence that the problem has been adequately addressed. If calibration is required, that hasn’t been done either. From a poll released yesterday from SurveyUSA concerning the Georgia Senate runoff elections in January comes this information about the composition of the respondent pool:

Of the Georgia registered voters polled, 47% reported voting for Biden and 43% for Trump. Barring changes from additional recounts or disqualified ballots, Biden will have narrowly edged Trump by 0.2% in the state, not a full 4%.

That the poll finds both Democrat Senate challengers in the lead, Ossoff up by 2 points and Warnock up by 7 points, is entirely unsurprising in this context. So unsurprising that given how recently the presidential election occurred it would seem advisable to randomly cull Biden voter responses until the composition of the respondent pool is at parity with regards to the presidential vote. The blog is downstream of the polling operations. We want clean water, not this detritus!

 
• Category: Culture/Society, Ideology • Tags: Media Bias, Polling 
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  1. The polls were weaponised. It is that simple.

  2. I got polled about 2 weeks ago by Gallup. I was on the phone (cell) for at least 1/2 an hour. From the questions asked, I lost some of what confidence I may have had in this polling process.

    It was a matter of stupid questions, repetitive questions (were they asked to see if I were lying in order to possibly throw out the whole thing if so?), questions that didn’t get to any point that I could even imagine, and a lot more of them to possibly establish who I am than to find out what I think.

    I just wrote a Peak Stupidity post about my experience. Read here for my take on it before I forget the whole thing.

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @Realist
    @Achmed E. Newman


    I got polled about 2 weeks ago by Gallup.
     
    We've all been poled by the Deep State

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    , @Anon
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Thanks for the Peak Stupidity description of what a long Gallop Poll call is like. I have always wondered what it entails, but have never done it myself. I recommend your post to everyone who might be curious to get a feel for the process.

    I feel I owe you something now, so I will reveal my most successful technique for getting a phone solicitor to hang up instantly, rather than switch to a new approach. (I hate to hang-up on anyone.) I say “That sounds great, but I’m in bankruptcy and the judge has to approve any new contract. Let me give you the judge’s phone number.”

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    , @dfordoom
    @Achmed E. Newman


    I got polled about 2 weeks ago by Gallup. I was on the phone (cell) for at least 1/2 an hour. From the questions asked, I lost some of what confidence I may have had in this polling process.
     
    I've been polled a couple of times. I found that I was being asked a lot of questions on subjects about which I honestly don't give a rat's arse so my answers, inevitably, were either totally arbitrary or flippant.

    In some cases there's just no way I could give an honest answer. If you asked me if I agreed or disagreed with any particular aspect of the Australia Government's climate change policies my actual truthful answer would be that I don't believe the Australian Government should have any climate change policies. But there's no option to give such an answer so whatever answer I give creates an entirely false assumption.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  3. Tweets from 2015:

    The Republican Party CHEAP LABOR FACTION politician whores got poled by some greedy, money-grubbing donors and they have jump-started the mass legal immigration and mass illegal immigration attack on the European Christian ancestral core of the historic American nation. Nasty three dollar whore politicians in the rancid Republican Party have kept the mass legal immigration floodgates wide open and they have refused to deport the upwards of 30 million illegal alien invaders in the USA.

    White Men Without College Degrees are some of the worst, greedy, money-grubbing Mammonite slobs when it comes to benefiting form the cheap labor of mass legal immigration and mass illegal immigration and these non-college educated slobs must be financially liquidated and forcibly exiled to sub-Saharan Africa for their participation in the mass illegal immigration flood that is pouring into the USA and there are at least 30 million illegal alien invaders in the USA and the number is growing massively.

    Not all Whites Without College Degrees are innocent little lambs; to the contrary, some are treasonous money-grubbing scum of the worst kind.

    DESTROY THE REPUBLICAN PARTY NOW!

    All the polling is rigged and so are the asinine claims that corporate propaganda whores are somehow “objective” in their rancid outgassing and scribbling.

    Do the polls oversample Democrat Party politician whores?

    YES!

    Has Billy Sample been underrated by baseball fans for his very fine career?

    YES!

    The problem is that the rancid Republican Party is in bed with the polling companies and the mass media corporations and the JEW/WASP Ruling Class of the American Empire.

    Partisan Propaganda Outlets and Partisan Polling Outfits and the recognition that the current tw0-party tyranny in the USA is a TOTALITARIAN attack on the historic American nation leads one to the realization that Civil War II has only been forestalled by the monetary extremism of the privately-controlled Federal Reserve Bank.

  4. Pollsters do not work for the public, they work for their paying clients.

    Pollsters do not struggle with accuracy, private “internal” polling commissioned by campaigns is spot-on.

    The same exact polling companies supposedly “get it wrong” on polls commissioned by media companies, but in fact they deliver exactly what the contract specifies–media companies are VERY specific about what polling “methodology” (read: results) they want the polling company to deliver.

    Are the New York Times and CNN “disappointed” that the polling companies they hired showed Biden ahead by double digits? Of course not! If the polls had shown him roughly EVEN with an incumbent, he would have had a much harder time fundraising, and the public would be even MORE skeptical of the eventual election result.

    After two consecutive elections in which “the pollsters got it wrong,” are the New York Times and CNN planning to switch polling companies next time? Of course not!

    The industry works as intended. The only issue is the naive expectation that this industry works for the public, for free, and is measured by how accurately they inform the public. Nope. They work for their clients, for money, and are measured by how well they meet client expectations.

  5. @Achmed E. Newman
    I got polled about 2 weeks ago by Gallup. I was on the phone (cell) for at least 1/2 an hour. From the questions asked, I lost some of what confidence I may have had in this polling process.

    It was a matter of stupid questions, repetitive questions (were they asked to see if I were lying in order to possibly throw out the whole thing if so?), questions that didn't get to any point that I could even imagine, and a lot more of them to possibly establish who I am than to find out what I think.

    I just wrote a Peak Stupidity post about my experience. Read here for my take on it before I forget the whole thing.

    Replies: @Realist, @Anon, @dfordoom

    I got polled about 2 weeks ago by Gallup.

    We’ve all been poled by the Deep State

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Realist

    Hey, buddy, you weren't the only way to come upon that joke. That's already in my PS blog post, at the beginning. You are quite right though.

  6. @Realist
    @Achmed E. Newman


    I got polled about 2 weeks ago by Gallup.
     
    We've all been poled by the Deep State

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Hey, buddy, you weren’t the only way to come upon that joke. That’s already in my PS blog post, at the beginning. You are quite right though.

    • LOL: Realist
  7. Anon[240] • Disclaimer says:
    @Achmed E. Newman
    I got polled about 2 weeks ago by Gallup. I was on the phone (cell) for at least 1/2 an hour. From the questions asked, I lost some of what confidence I may have had in this polling process.

    It was a matter of stupid questions, repetitive questions (were they asked to see if I were lying in order to possibly throw out the whole thing if so?), questions that didn't get to any point that I could even imagine, and a lot more of them to possibly establish who I am than to find out what I think.

    I just wrote a Peak Stupidity post about my experience. Read here for my take on it before I forget the whole thing.

    Replies: @Realist, @Anon, @dfordoom

    Thanks for the Peak Stupidity description of what a long Gallop Poll call is like. I have always wondered what it entails, but have never done it myself. I recommend your post to everyone who might be curious to get a feel for the process.

    I feel I owe you something now, so I will reveal my most successful technique for getting a phone solicitor to hang up instantly, rather than switch to a new approach. (I hate to hang-up on anyone.) I say “That sounds great, but I’m in bankruptcy and the judge has to approve any new contract. Let me give you the judge’s phone number.”

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Anon

    You're quite welcome, #240. Haha, thank you for that suggestion. The only thing is the robocalls. They are so clever that sometimes I end up asking a real person more than once whether he is a computer, just to make sure.

    Bill collectors aside, I do feel I own a human more than just hanging up, too. Long ago, when it was a human on the line, I'd some times interrupt near the beginning, and tell him to hang on just a minute. I'd set the phone down, continue what I'd been doing, and check back in 5 or 10 minutes to see if he was still on the line. That was kind of mean, I guess.

  8. @Achmed E. Newman
    I got polled about 2 weeks ago by Gallup. I was on the phone (cell) for at least 1/2 an hour. From the questions asked, I lost some of what confidence I may have had in this polling process.

    It was a matter of stupid questions, repetitive questions (were they asked to see if I were lying in order to possibly throw out the whole thing if so?), questions that didn't get to any point that I could even imagine, and a lot more of them to possibly establish who I am than to find out what I think.

    I just wrote a Peak Stupidity post about my experience. Read here for my take on it before I forget the whole thing.

    Replies: @Realist, @Anon, @dfordoom

    I got polled about 2 weeks ago by Gallup. I was on the phone (cell) for at least 1/2 an hour. From the questions asked, I lost some of what confidence I may have had in this polling process.

    I’ve been polled a couple of times. I found that I was being asked a lot of questions on subjects about which I honestly don’t give a rat’s arse so my answers, inevitably, were either totally arbitrary or flippant.

    In some cases there’s just no way I could give an honest answer. If you asked me if I agreed or disagreed with any particular aspect of the Australia Government’s climate change policies my actual truthful answer would be that I don’t believe the Australian Government should have any climate change policies. But there’s no option to give such an answer so whatever answer I give creates an entirely false assumption.

    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @dfordoom

    There were plenty of questions like that too, Mr. Doom. When the premise is just stupid, the answer means nothing.

  9. @dfordoom
    @Achmed E. Newman


    I got polled about 2 weeks ago by Gallup. I was on the phone (cell) for at least 1/2 an hour. From the questions asked, I lost some of what confidence I may have had in this polling process.
     
    I've been polled a couple of times. I found that I was being asked a lot of questions on subjects about which I honestly don't give a rat's arse so my answers, inevitably, were either totally arbitrary or flippant.

    In some cases there's just no way I could give an honest answer. If you asked me if I agreed or disagreed with any particular aspect of the Australia Government's climate change policies my actual truthful answer would be that I don't believe the Australian Government should have any climate change policies. But there's no option to give such an answer so whatever answer I give creates an entirely false assumption.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    There were plenty of questions like that too, Mr. Doom. When the premise is just stupid, the answer means nothing.

  10. @Anon
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Thanks for the Peak Stupidity description of what a long Gallop Poll call is like. I have always wondered what it entails, but have never done it myself. I recommend your post to everyone who might be curious to get a feel for the process.

    I feel I owe you something now, so I will reveal my most successful technique for getting a phone solicitor to hang up instantly, rather than switch to a new approach. (I hate to hang-up on anyone.) I say “That sounds great, but I’m in bankruptcy and the judge has to approve any new contract. Let me give you the judge’s phone number.”

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    You’re quite welcome, #240. Haha, thank you for that suggestion. The only thing is the robocalls. They are so clever that sometimes I end up asking a real person more than once whether he is a computer, just to make sure.

    Bill collectors aside, I do feel I own a human more than just hanging up, too. Long ago, when it was a human on the line, I’d some times interrupt near the beginning, and tell him to hang on just a minute. I’d set the phone down, continue what I’d been doing, and check back in 5 or 10 minutes to see if he was still on the line. That was kind of mean, I guess.

  11. Interesting note, in most years the GSS has shown bias in favor of the winner of the presidential election in 2016 it didn’t, the other case of winner under-preforming in the GSS is Reagan in 1980(after correcting for deliberate black over samples). As of now there is only one year and the GSS normally samples each election three or four times.

  12. There is one undeniable fact that Kamala Harris is not liked in this country, ok excluding visible minority. DNC backroom manipulation in primaries to push unpopular Biden (initially 1%) coupled with picking Harris for the VP position turned off many voters even from the Dem Party. Consequently, Biden getting historical record vote is a blatant fraud accomplished by deceiving mailing ballots. The Supreme Court should wake up and should stop this assault on American democracy.

  13. There are probably valid reasons for Ds being over-sampled compared to Rs. The real issue is whether the pollsters (or someone else) can accurately gauge the size of this effect, and weigh their results accordingly. My guess is that personality type is a significant factor here.

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