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Polling and Prediction Markets on 2020 Presidential Election
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RCP state polling averages as of May 19, 2020: state favorites as of May 19, 2020:

Polling shows Biden winning Ohio and Florida. Bettors think Trump will hold onto both of them.

The states both polling and greenskin in the game see flipping from 2016 to 2020 are Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The three Trump ripped out of the blue column and gave to Republicans for the first time since the 1980s are ideological battlegrounds. Trump’s deviation from GOP orthodoxy on trade and immigration earned him those states.

Arizona, in contrast, is an inevitable outcome of the numbers game. It is a state right now transitioning into majority-minority status. It may officially have done so once the 2020 census results are released.

On the eve of the 2016 presidential election, RCP state polling averages predicted Hillary Clinton winning 273-265. Trump ended up dominating electorally, 306-232 (faithless electors notwithstanding). If Trump gets another favorable 41-point swing, he’ll still come up far short of reelection. He needs the polls–at least at this point–to be twice as far off this time around as they were in 2016.

The optimistic take from a Trumpian perspective: If the president is able to hold what he won in 2016, he need only carry one of the three ‘surprise’ states in 2020 to win reelection. If I’m Brad Parscale, I’m expending the most time, effort, and resources in retaining Wisconsin and holding Arizona for one more election cycle. Managing that gives Trump the electoral college by a whisker, 270-268.

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  1. Thomm says:

    Barring massive vote fraud, Trump wins, period.

  2. MattinLA says:

    Very hard to win with unemployment at 30% Maybe if it gets to 7% he would have a shot.

  3. MattinLA says:

    Also, is there a similar map you could show from May 2016 for comparison’s sake?

  4. If Trump had actually done what he said in 2015 that he was going to do, then the country could have been visited by the Ten Plagues of Egypt and he still would have won handily. But he did not do a single thing that he proposed to do, and now he will lose in a massive rout to a babbling bribe-taking accused-rapist dementia patient; there will never again be a Republican president, and there will never again be a non-castrato White president of either party. Sic terminat res publica. And the gloating and cheering of the media Jews that the White man is dead forever in American politics will be so loud you could hear it on Neptune.

    Trump was never serious because he never prepared the battle space in advance: his enemies saw him coming a mile away, a hundred miles away, he was Custer blissfully riding into ambush at Little Big Horn. A profoundly unserious man, an embarrassingly unserious man, and he will go down in history as the last, contemptible, example of his kind.

    Trump was the last chance to avert a civil war, and he pissed away the chance like a kid behind the bleachers at a Little League game. Whether he was a clueless Boomer who didn’t understand what sort of position he was in, or whether he was just an opportunistic egotist, I am not qualified to say. But thanks to him, our unlucky children will now know either civil war, or else the auction block.

  5. Nodwink says:

    The people who pull the strings have already won. The only real goal for establishment Democrats was to stop Bernie, and thus keep the $$$ flowing. Biden winning would be a bonus, but as long as certain Congressfolk keep drawing a salary, even that doesn’t matter much.

  6. Any Republican that sees a realistic electoral college map and does not feel at least a hint of despair simply doesn’t understand the situation.

  7. A123 says:

    The top level # for shows Trump 50 / Biden 44.

    TRUMP 284 / BIDEN 244

    The explanation for the discrepancy between the more accurate top line and the less accurate state by state is low volume & trading limits. Due to market inefficiencies, Lockdown states of PA and MI show as light blue when they are actually red. Those two states alone are 36 delegates. There may be other lagging light blue states, such as WI’s 10 delegates.

    The only way for Biden to gain ground would have been a great convention that healed wounds and re-motivated the DNC base. WUHAN-19 has made that impossible.

    Obamagate and other SJW Globalist DNC abuses of power will be in the public eye for months. The need to “Stop Blue Crime” and “Save the Constitution!!!” will motivate a great deal of Red voting by those who are not particularly fond of Trump.

    The U.S. is facing great danger due to out of control Trump Derangement Syndrome [TDS]. The SJW Globalist DNC crazies may try to overthrow Trump’s certain victory. If Biden gains office, there will never be another election in the U.S. Fortunately, it looks like there are 5 Justices that would stop Biden from stealing the election, but with Roberts one can never be 100% sure.

    I still hope for the most peaceful & unifying national result. A win for Trump so big that the TDS driven, inevitable SJW Globalist DNC vote fraud does not place the outcome in doubt.

    PEACE 😷

    • Replies: @MBlanc46
  8. Anonymous[249] • Disclaimer says:
    @The Germ Theory of Disease

    Why would there be a civil war? I keep hearing this civil war / balkanization meme. but it is never explained. What is the timeline from May 20, 2020 to the date of the civil war, what are the events that happen in between?

    • Replies: @anon
  9. Mail-in voting makes this an academic exercise. If most states run with mail-in voting, ballot harvesting will make this a slam-dunk Dem landslide.

    • Replies: @Justvisiting
  10. Such a weird time to project forward from. Bidenserving as POTUS? No way, no how. Simply physically unfit, and no way to make him appear so. It would take the full cooperation of the entire Trump re election operation to (maybe) allow the media to rag a dead Joe and his black female VP (the person who is intended to serve the POTUS term) over the electoral college line, AND the fraudulent manufacture or handling of millions of ballots. I just cannot see that happening, no way.

    Trump is a clown who was nominated out of sheer disgust with the craven, corrupt, useless Republican Establishment. He was selected POTUS out of sheer disgust with Hillary Clinton. Clinton disappointed or scared the powers-that-be, so Trump got the nod and they refused to steal enough votes for her in PA, MI, And WI. Trump can easily lose if anyone barely tolerable runs against him. If anyone barely tolerable is nominated in Biden’s place, that person will be the next POTUS.

    Can the POTUS makers and their minions in the media pull off a switcheroo in the Dem party that will not result in open political warfare, and still get enough old white people out to vote for a black woman like Michelle Obama? I am sure that the rules and regulations allow for substituting right up until the time that ballots are printed, but whether the politics come anywhere near working is another question entirely. Lots and lots of people voted for Barack Obama hoping to bury racism, and realized that it will never happen. Will they vote to support Michelle Obama? Kamala Harris?? No way for Stacy Abrams. Anyone else?? Bueller?? Anyone??

    Name the Biden replacement, and the results of the next Presidential selection will be pretty clear. Right this minute, it looks like Trump, but that could and may well change.

  11. @MattinLA

    The lecherous and despicable Masonic war criminal FDR won in 1935 with an economic disaster that was, at that point anyway, worse because it had gone on for longer.

  12. @The Germ Theory of Disease

    But thanks to him, our unlucky children will now know either civil war, or else the auction block.

    The auction block. Gosh, American whites today are such hysterical whiners, conditioned by years of propaganda and frequently self-inflicted defeat.

    You should listen to more Serbian war music to get the appropriate defiant energy.

  13. UK says:

    Canada has registered official deflation. This is the first time ever

    Europe and the UK are very close to that.

    The UK’s government has just sold a bond to investors whereby the investors pay for the privilege of lending and the government is paid to borrow!

    Yes, a minute but nonetheless actual negative interest rate!

    Demand was even two thirds in excess of supply!

    This is all unsurprising.

    Aggregate demand has been cut by government action for everything (except a safe place to store money.) Yet supply has remained strong, at least on things that can actually be consumed.

    Although, supply has also disappeared on things that can’t be consumed in quarantine and therefore the price of those things is both zero and infinite and not included in the figures.

    That supply which is no longer supplied has even shifted a bit to areas that it can produce in. Hence deflation.

    It seems that we are dead set on the money printing route. No one is going to want to argue against the government being paid to borrow and therefore doing lots of borrowing. Free money for all is a fact, for the moment.

    Again, money is everywhere but with nowhere to go. The question is whether it is waiting to go into future attempts to gain a yield and boost supply further in the future and therefore maintain deflation or it will be used for consumption and to avoid work. Or even will it just sit and gather value by doing nothing at all…and for how long? Mountains and mountains of it exist.

    I suspect, at some point in the future, the huge heaped piles of money collapse into the economy and serious inflation becomes a reality, but, for now, the incentive to keep piling it higher and higher is irresistibly strong. People are even paying the government to mind their piles.

    And the incentive is self-reinforcing:

    As people pile their money higher, doing little with it, it appreciates in value because everything else becomes worth less of it because the like is obscured – ironically except the stock market, as it just yields less, because it too is a safe store of money…it is wholly backed by the government, as events have shown, it is just another totally secure pile of money but with returns!

    So how does this end?

    It perhaps ends when inflation substantially outstrips yield or appreciation and then money will topple into the economy sending inflation to extreme levels. But why would this happen? What’s the supply shock?

    Or perhaps it ends when the security of the money is compromised, either by government or social action. So what’s the political shock? And what party wants to produce it and therefore create the mad inflationary bust? And be responsible for it?

    So you need inflation for inflation to happen or huge political insecurity for huge politics insecurity to happen for then inflation to happen…

    The supply shock ending therefore seems much more likely. It is simpler. Maybe, when we re-open, supply will fail to scale back up and that’ll kick things off. Or maybe, with all of the piles of money, a lot of people will just not be bothered to do much supplying? (This latter one is a long-term issue and a potential explanation for the decline of the West but it has decades more to play out potentially.)

    Meanwhile, the first effect is short-term, and actually self-rectifying in the long-run, unless everyone gets carried away. Supply will get it right pretty quick and because of competition, can hardly price gouge for long.

    In other words, the only types of organisations that might take advantage of the huge piles of money to boost their prices would be true monopolies or cartels. After all, they could restrict supply. And this is why luxury goods are hardly in deflation. But luxury goods are luxuries and don’t threaten the underlying value.

    People call the tech companies monopolies, but they aren’t actually. Google, Facebook, Twitter and all, are competitors to provide advertising. They are in strong competition on this front. They do not produce “search” or “social media” or Google or Facebook or whatever, those are merely factories where they produce eyeballs. Calling them monopolies is like calling Ford a monopoly for being the only company to produce Ford car manufacturing plants.

    So…that leaves long-term phased deflationary decline, a mystery shock, exploitation by a genuine monopoly or political crisis.

    In other words, it leaves OPEC+ to successfully strike now – somehow massively cut supply – price gouge – topple the pikes of money – topple the stock market and then buy it up cheap…or long-term deflationary decline.

    A revolution of the Netflix generation isn’t happening -just print money for them, and printing even more money solves temporary mystery shocks (i.e Coronavirus.)

    With US shale producers in temporary turmoil and a proven ability to makes deals and cut supplies, the only time for OPEC+ is now.

    Whether their price gouging will actually be enough to set off inflation…I have no idea…but the higher the piles of money, perversely, the more incentive and weight they have to stay in place.

    So maybe it’ll just be when the baby boomers all die, everyone else inherits, and huge spending begins.

    Or not. It is all very hard to predict. The inheritees may also sit on it.

    Or maybe a government will just come in and confiscate it all? Or topple it into the economy by accident in the process?

    There’s a lot to play for and no obvious end. Once you have deflation, it has its own staying power. And no one strong wants to topple it and no one weak can. And events cause the strong to just support it. The higher you build the piles of money the harder they will fall and so the more incentive you have to to keep building them to make them formidable so they can’t be pushed over.

    Shale production was precisely that. A defence of money against legitimate producers. That’s why shale was only profitable under conditions of free money for shale producers. And the Sauds and the Russians had bought into the system already.

    Tldr: watch for either OPEC+ price gouging, some other potential monopoly (can’t think of any), or a messed up adjustment period back to normal to see everything topple.

    Or await long-term decline until political revolution by the confiscatory (and probably minoritarian) left in decades (?).

    Until then, and these are small probabilities or perhaps lifetimes away, sit back and enjoy the Japanese experience. It isn’t going away (until it does) and since all of the rich and powerful understand that’s there no way out without their pikes of money being confiscated or hyper-inflationary collapse, this isn’t likely to change.

    And if you’re looking for somewhere to put your money…the stock market is one hundred percent backed by the state. That’s totally secure….until it isn’t. Or maybe OPEC+ will somehow organise among themselves to make the sale of the century? I’m betting on the latter…because it has the biggest upside (-; but then I might wuss out as they might too, after some success.

  14. @The Alarmist

    This is a classic turn-out election. Biden will have a lot of trouble mobilizing Dem voters, but if he can “dig up the vote” from the cemeteries then you would have to give him the edge.

  15. A123 says:

    Trump is announcing new measures guaranteed to appeal to Red voters: (1)(2)

    Trump signed the order in a cabinet meeting. Before he signed the order, he explained that it involves “instructing federal agencies to use any and all authority to waive, suspend, and eliminate unnecessary regulations that impede economic recovery.”

    With a stroke of his pen, President Trump has given American businesses and industries some light on the horizon in the form of freedom from burdensome regulations that could save millions who are teetering on the brink financially. It is too much to hope that we’ll ever be free of federal over-regulation, but this is very much worth celebrating.

    — Let AMerica Expire [LAME] blue, versus
    — Make America Great Again [MAGA] red

    Only the truly delusional will side with the cryin’ blue boo hoo team.

    PEACE 😷



  16. Daniel H says:
    @Diversity Heretic

    Any Republican that sees a realistic electoral college map and does not feel at least a hint of despair simply doesn’t understand the situation

    Yep. And why should I care about the fate of the Republicans? They have provided zero true resistance to the left. They believed that they could finesse things forever, just go a teeny bit to the right of the Dems on most matters, feed Wall Street, feed the Chamber of Commerce types. Screw them. The Republicans are finished, and that ‘s a good thing.

  17. @Diversity Heretic

    It’s over. Well, almost over. It’s possible Trump pulls out a victory, but for 2024 and beyond, it’s over.

    It’s a demographic inevitability that Texas, Florida and Arizona will flip. Georgia and North Carolina also will turn at some point. Then the fun begins. It’ll probably take the Dems a couple of presidential elections to figure out that they can’t lose the general election and thus the real election is the Dem primary, which is ludicrously liberal and woke.

    In the next 20 years, we’ll see:

    1. Gov’t mandated affirmative action for all businesses over 10 employees
    2. Housing programs that will put blacks and Hispanics on your street
    3. Wealth tax
    4. Reparations for non-whites
    5. No jail time for violent criminals who commit those crimes against whites due to historic racism
    6. Big time Hate Crimes legislation that will make any public discussion of race or even talk of a white community illegal
    7. FBI surveillance of any group suspected of Hate Crimes, which means any group
    8. Severe gun control

    I used to worry that the United States would turn into Brazil, but, now, I think that we’d be lucky to get that.

    Of course, I could be wrong. California is our future and while a mess, it’s not dystopic. But the national Dem leaders seem much more racially antagonistic, so my guess is that we’re looking at something much nastier than California.

    • Replies: @Neuday
    , @Diversity Heretic
  18. If Orange Man is re-elected we are in for a very long and very deep depression. If Sleepy Joe is elected we are in for a very long and very deep depression. Take your pick.

  19. dfordoom says: • Website
    @The Germ Theory of Disease

    But thanks to him, our unlucky children will now know either civil war, or else the auction block.

    I very much doubt it. I think you’re getting a tad paranoid.

  20. Neuday says:
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    California is our future and while a mess, it’s not dystopic.

    Not dystopic? Go take a tour of the towns and cities along Hwy 99 in the San Joaquin Valley. Visit the schools and the hospital ERs. Check out Riverside County. When you’re at a stoplight, be sure to make eye contact with the young men in the car next to you.

  21. Neuday says:

    The way it’s shaping up, regardless of who wins, the other side will not accept the results. The Left already doesn’t accept the 2016 results because feels, and with cheat-by-mail, the Right will smell fraud, with good reason. If Biden wins, then his sassy black female VP takes over due to Biden’s senility, the resulting Gibsmedat Boogaloo could easily be all the acceleration we need toward some spicy times.

  22. @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Good comment, Citizen! That future is a big part of the reason why I’m an expat living in France. France also has big problems, but I don’t have to remember what it used to be like.

  23. @Daniel H

    There’s no reason that you should care about Republican prospects in presidential elections. I don’t care; my comment was observational and empirical. But, like Citizen, you need to think about how the United States will be governed in a one-party state and take appropriate personal action.

  24. I swear that on election day 2016 there were mainstream franchises like 538 saying it was 19-1, 29-1, that Clinton would win. The only credibility guy who gave Trump a chance was Rush Limbaugh. I don’t listen to Rush much but I tuned in to his show on a whim on Tuesday morning and then was when I got my shock as he was saying it was way too early to give up and Trump really does have a shot to win this.

    His logic: polls are one thing, turnout can be something totally different. Trump’s supporters have enthusiasm. At Trump rallies the place is packed and everyone is having a good time. Clinton can’t fill a school auditorium and her supporters don’t even like her.

    I was shocked hearing Limbaugh say this. In the morning. Later that night my friends were all dying of shock and incoherence and I had to control myself and thinking, “how about that?”

    (Yankees radio guy voice.)

    Also all those people who were saying Trump had no chance forgot they ever said any such thing.

  25. anon[181] • Disclaimer says:

    The case for civil war:
    The crazy left takes full power and batters whites with repressive laws. We already have one foot in this door. The dollar finally crashes, everyone is equally poor, so the one-party Wall Street Left government increases the blame whitey propoganda. When the formerly middle class white populace gets angry and hungry enough they stop caring if someone calls them racist. If they are unemployed long enough they start using their guns.

    The case against civil war:
    All of the above, except people don’t start using their guns. People will endure just about anything rather than risk death. You don’t have wars unless you force people to become soldiers. So Americans become poor and just kind of lay there and take it, like Brazilians.

  26. A123 says:

    Slightly OT humor:

    Is it a bad sign when Pratchett’s Discworld sounds like an improvement? (1)


    The Patrician is the ruler (read: “dictator for life”) of Ankh-Morpork …

    Upon the death (or perceived disability) of the Patrician, a council of guild leaders elects a new one immediately, without any sort of campaign or overt search for candidates. They will have had their replacement in mind for some time. Quite often the change is accelerated by the intervention of the Assassins’ Guild.

    Havelock Vetinari is the current Patrician of Ankh-Morpork. He has been the supreme ruler for some years …

    Vetinari did ban street theatre and tends to hang mime artists upside down in a scorpion pit opposite a sign reading “Learn The Words,” but this is generally taken by the population as simply an amusing character trait.

    PEACE 😷


  27. @Guy Cabellero

    “Lighten up Francis” has gotten to be kind of a worn-out ref.

    But your moniker ref, on the other hand is pure gold! Bravo!

    Man, I miss those guys.

  28. MBlanc46 says:
    @The Germ Theory of Disease

    I’m pretty sure that he will lose, but it’s a bit of a stretch to blame him for whatever is to come. It was coming in any case. At least he us a four year reprieve.

  29. MBlanc46 says:

    The Dem base has been motivated since the Wednesday after the election 2016.

  30. MattinLA says:

    Interestingly, two recent polls of “battleground” states (CNN and MSNBC) show Trump leading there in the aggregate. These polls don’t show up in the RCP average because they are not purely “state” polls.

  31. Bill H says:

    Democrats think that all of their repugnant insanity has swayed voters to their side. I suspect it has merely caused opposing voters to go underground. I never admit to being a Republican, because it brings forth too much vitriol and hatred if the person I admitted it to happens to be a Democrat. That doesn’t mean I won’t still vote Republican.

  32. I’m very pessimistic about the election.

    even if there’s no new voters whatsoever (obviously not true), trump may still lost if everyone voted the same way as 2016?

    too many older voters died in the last four years. in some states the number of those dead that voted for him is much higher than the margin that he won.

    he may keep some states like iowa and ohio, but the others dont. may be also the last presidential election that republicans may won ever (texas, georgia, north carolina, etc)

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