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Beats me:

The price spike at the end of 2017 corresponded to a surge in search volume interest about how to get in on the action. Many of the people who drove that surge in search interest were immediately wiped out for their trouble. A fool and his money…

The ability for whales to manipulate the market is hard to definitively prove, but it must be a factor. The latest push, dive, and push hasn’t generated anything like the excitement among novices that the winter of 2017 did. Is that an indication of the start of a genuine bull rally? That’s not a rhetorical question. Again, it beats me.

 
• Category: Economics • Tags: Economics 
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  1. fwh says:

    Bitcoin may have short term value according to greater fool theory, but it lacks 2 essential features that I believe a crypto **currency** needs. Transaction speed and privacy by default.

    1. Transaction Speed – bitcoin can only process ~10 transactions per second and this while consuming a noticeable fraction of the earth’s entire power supply. Visa is ~30,000 per second and ~70,000/s around Christmas.

    2. Privacy by default – bitcoin is a *public ledger*. That’s crazy. Everyone in the entire world can see if I bought a coke or I went to the strip club. You can apply a fig leaf of anonymity with “tumblers”, but that is literally a word taken from laundering money and it isn’t a cryptographic solution. Silly. It is just a version of the shell game. Where’d the money go??!?! Turns out computers can follow every transaction and figure it out. I can’t find the article on which exchange theft was traced back to a yahoo fencing his ill gotten gains using tumblers, but they did it.

    The only crypto **currencies** attempting transaction speed and cryptographic transaction anonymity are ZCash and Monero.

    But, in the end, they’ll be outlawed by the government, as Moldbug wrote. Too bad I didn’t listen to him then when it was $12/BTC. There are a great many other fools to mine.

  2. I never bought cryptocurrency and I never got into it. I stick to the “normal” investment vehicles, as I know my way around them and because they just make more sense to me. Cryptos seem too susceptible idk…remember when Rodman wore a shirt for some minor crypto and it just hit the roof after? Plus, it’s way too luck based and the people in the game who discuss it heavily…yikes. the ones who market them sound like scams

  3. Michael S says:

    I have always seen, and continue to see, both gold and cryptocurrency as being somewhere in between an extreme long-term investment that might not become important until your great-grandchildren grow up, and a hedge against the slowly-eroding financial empire of fiat currency and debt.

    There will probably be many short-term bull markets and deflations of these assets, but they’re all basically noise to me. If you enjoy short-term speculation/gambling then penny stocks and naked options still yield the highest ROI… if you guess right.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  4. I don’t understand how running some mysterious software on your computer can eventually give you the ability to claim real goods and services costing millions of dollars. What equivalent value have you produced to exchange for that tangible wealth?

    Cryptocurrency looks like a rent-seeking scam.

  5. Sean says:

    The recent bubble is allegedly related to an Australian who claims to be Satoshi registering a US patent, which cost him less than 50 bucks. No country stands behind Bitcoin, indeed the original white paper is ideologically anti-national. Difficult to see how it could continue to survive on that basis unless the nation state system disappears. A long wait for that, rely on it.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  6. @advancedatheist

    Pretty much techno-usury.
    Although I sincerely wish I had gotten in when I heard about it, and not just when it got easy to mine and value went down. The technobabble confused me and the software and hardware were behind. Guess one could have used a leap of faith lol…

  7. @advancedatheist

    What value is there in those green pieces of extra-rugged paper with soon-to-be pictures of Aunt Jemima on them? They don’t even serve well as toilet paper. The idea of crytpo currency, AA, is that (supposedly, per the mathematicians that created it) it takes more and more computing power to create more of it – the whole blockchain thing. You cannot say the same for green banknotes and bits in a computer that are supposed to mean dollars.

    Now, I’ve got my doubts too, as you could probably tell by “supposedly”. There’s a big worry for me. If there is some mathematician who has the extra insight or additional brainpower to know that there is a way to crack the whole thing, would he tell anyone now, or wait until he creates 5 billion dollars worth of it and cashes out first? Then, as I’m sure he’ll want the credit, he’ll wait a year and then publish a paper.

    The only REAL MONEY is gold and silver – pretty hard to make more, until we can mine the asteroids, but as soon as anyone really knows of the mineral being in one, and has a solid plan to get it, guess what? The value of it will go down accordingly, as only the 2nd time in Western history, after the Spanish conquest and looting of those pre-Columbian savages that totally deserved it anyway. If you’re just gonna decorate the Sun King’s palace with the stuff, then you don’t deserve to keep it. A cannibal and his money … etc.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  8. @Sean

    No country stands behind Bitcoin, indeed the original white paper is ideologically anti-national.

    What governments HATE HATE HATE about cryptocurrencies is that they are hard to tax, and money can be transferred around the world without them stopping it or getting their grubby hands on some.

    What I don’t see crypto as, is a store of value, so much as just a currency.

  9. @Michael S

    I love the idea but I’ve never been able to pull the trigger.

  10. @advancedatheist

    So does MMT, ‘quantitative easing’, and a host of other money creation schemes.

  11. @Achmed E. Newman

    Harriet Tubman has been bumped back to the late 2020s. Appreciate the small victories where they can be found.

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