That’s the more sensationalist reading of the results, anyway. Presumably, “influenced the outcome” should necessarily be interpreted as “changed the outcome”, else the “influence” is immaterial. But it is conceivable some of these voters think fraud tipped one state or kept another state from flipping without changing who made it to 270 electoral votes. In other words, it changed the electoral score but not the electoral victor. It’s possible, but it seems doubtful most people smelling a rat think that.
In the first few days after the election, the establishment talking point was that no evidence of fraud existed. Though the walls had crumbled, the gate keepers were sitting in their parapets, forbidding anyone from passing through while everybody walked by. Those with access to the internet experienced a few days of surreality as the corporate media denied what they saw with their own lying eyes. The emperor was in a birthday suit, but CNN swore his were the most beautiful clothes:
When you watch cable news, all you hear is how illegitimate these claims are. “There’s no evidence!” Meanwhile, here on the internet everyone is sharing hundreds of videos of blatant voter fraud.
— Jon Miller (@MillerStream) November 10, 2020
Despite the best efforts of the ring-kissing, bootlicking journalistic class to squelch truth on behalf of power, by the time this poll was conducted awareness of the shenanigans was ubiquitous. Even among Biden voters, fewer than 1-in-3 believe the election was a clean one.
This blogger guesses the assessment of most Biden voters is the correct one. Of course every election includes some level of fraud, but this time it wasn’t a trivial amount. If I can be proven incorrect, I hope to be. The audacity of an establishment that spent the better part of four years disputing the results of the 2016 election without any credible evidence now demanding uncertified election results be hastily certified and the apparent outcome accepted immediately in the face of credible evidence of fraud, irregularities, and errors is truly staggering.
The inauguration is over two months away. If there is nothing to find, what’s the harm in looking? Isn’t convincing those sixty million highly skeptical voters that Trump lost fair and square the first step towards achieving the unity we’ve heard so many calls for over the last several days?
Parenthetically, two cheers for YouGov’s consistency. The outfit regularly oversamples Democrats. It consequently tends to predict outcomes on the left end of the polling consensus, a consensus that itself is to the left of reality. Biden is set to win the popular vote by about 5 points. YouGov’s survey was comprised of 797 Biden voters and 597 Trump voters, though, a distribution suggesting Biden won the popular vote by 14 points. See, consistent! The crosstabs are good and the sub-group information has a lot of utility, so we’re sticking with them.