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Percentages of Americans, as of the end of April, who say restaurants should probably or definitely re-open, with the 6% answering “not sure” excluded so that the residuals are those why say they should probably or definitely remain closed:

Though a sizable minority wants to open back up, most people want to keep things closed. This is truly remarkable. Voluntary support for this kind of massive social disruption will shift the trajectory of the future in ways that can only be speculated about–and upon–now. They say it’s hard to identify a historical inflection point in anything other than retrospect. Not here. Not this time. This one is obvious.

The only major demographic distinction is along partisan lines. Though the survey does not break down responses by both race and partisan affiliation, it looks as though the most trenchant divide is between white people. White Democrats overwhelmingly want things to remain locked down. Most Republicans, who are mostly white, want to open back up. Though non-whites lean Democrat, they fall in between white Democrats and white Republicans.

 
• Category: Culture/Society, Economics, Ideology • Tags: Coronavirus, Polling 
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  1. As I’ve been at pains to point out, a matter of fact, science, medicine has become a political wedge issue. How ridiculous. Right wants things open, left closed. How mind-bogglingly obtuse. What especially charms me is how the conservatives all think they’re such incredibly radical radicals fighting for an end to quarantine when that is exactly what their owners want them to fight for.

    Who am I kidding. As if that isn’t the way it’s always been.

    • Replies: @SFG
    Oh yeah. Further spread of the virus will kill a disproportionate amount of legacy Americans--it targets the old after all.
  2. Democrats want to keep everything locked down but not pay the costs involved. Democrat run California was just given 350 million dollars by the federal government to pay their state unemployment benefits with another 10 billion to come. Democrat run Illinois is in line right behind them. So the Republican states that open up will reduce their state unemployment benefit costs and start paying taxes again on economic activity and then the tax money will be given to Democrat states that have decided to keep everything closed so they can give unemployment benefits to everyone in their state out of work.

    This is going to create a moral hazard problem in the future. Once states know they can engage in reckless spending and have the federal government bail them out it will encourage more of them to do so. Eventually every state will want to be bailed out and there will be no states left to do the bailing.

    • Replies: @SFG
    This is an excellent point overall, but you should note it's usually the blue states that have been net taxpayers.
    , @Realist
    Democrats want to continue the shut down to cause as much damage to the economy as possible...and blame it on Trump. The Democrats couldn't care less about the Ameicans hurt by the shut down.
    , @Audacious Epigone
    By pledging to do "whatever it takes", the Fed and Treasury have already created a moral hazard. If the monetary regime is able to navigate through this crisis, it can handle anything. I don't think it can handle this, though.
  3. AE’s assessment that 2020 is a historical inflection point is right on the money. I think historians will eventually label COVID-19 as the “virus that drove humanity mad.”

  4. A123 says:

    SJW Globalists are science deniers. These are the loonies that accept fabricated numbers from the Global Cooling / Warming / Change scam.

    Globalists want to crush all but the largest multinational firms. Is it anyone surprised that the submissive science deniers are blindly obeying their Globalist masters and accept the “must close” WUHAN-19 scam?

    PEACE 😷

    • Replies: @dfordoom

    Is it anyone surprised that the submissive science deniers are blindly obeying their Globalist masters and accept the “must close” WUHAN-19 scam?
     
    The fault lines revealed by the COVID-19 thing aren't as clear-cut as that. It seems to be as much a psychological divide as an ideological one. Some people are just inclined to believe in scientific-sounding supposed catastrophes. Others are just psychologically inclined to scepticism. There are Corona Panickers across the political/ideological spectrum.

    Your claim doesn't really make sense. The Corona Panic is not in the interests of the globalists. Quite the opposite. It's very much in the interests of the globalists to get the lockdowns lifted and the economy up and running again.
  5. @obwandiyag
    As I've been at pains to point out, a matter of fact, science, medicine has become a political wedge issue. How ridiculous. Right wants things open, left closed. How mind-bogglingly obtuse. What especially charms me is how the conservatives all think they're such incredibly radical radicals fighting for an end to quarantine when that is exactly what their owners want them to fight for.

    Who am I kidding. As if that isn't the way it's always been.

    Oh yeah. Further spread of the virus will kill a disproportionate amount of legacy Americans–it targets the old after all.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
    I always found it bizarre that Hannity and the rest of the FOX ditto-heads (minus Tucker Carlson) parroted the initial White House line that the pandemic was no big deal. Their viewers were the ones most at risk of dying.
  6. @Mark G.
    Democrats want to keep everything locked down but not pay the costs involved. Democrat run California was just given 350 million dollars by the federal government to pay their state unemployment benefits with another 10 billion to come. Democrat run Illinois is in line right behind them. So the Republican states that open up will reduce their state unemployment benefit costs and start paying taxes again on economic activity and then the tax money will be given to Democrat states that have decided to keep everything closed so they can give unemployment benefits to everyone in their state out of work.

    This is going to create a moral hazard problem in the future. Once states know they can engage in reckless spending and have the federal government bail them out it will encourage more of them to do so. Eventually every state will want to be bailed out and there will be no states left to do the bailing.

    This is an excellent point overall, but you should note it’s usually the blue states that have been net taxpayers.

    • Replies: @iffen
    it’s usually the blue states that have been net taxpayers.

    Thanks for pointing this out, Schumer For God.

    People who are all in on progressive taxation should accept that it is more than just for the wealthiest states to pay more, much, much, more.

    , @Anonymous
    What demographic information about red states might you be eliding?
    , @Almost Missouri
    Paying Social Security taxes from your metro zip while you work, then collecting Social Security benefits from your exurb zip after you retire can cause that appearance.
  7. @Mark G.
    Democrats want to keep everything locked down but not pay the costs involved. Democrat run California was just given 350 million dollars by the federal government to pay their state unemployment benefits with another 10 billion to come. Democrat run Illinois is in line right behind them. So the Republican states that open up will reduce their state unemployment benefit costs and start paying taxes again on economic activity and then the tax money will be given to Democrat states that have decided to keep everything closed so they can give unemployment benefits to everyone in their state out of work.

    This is going to create a moral hazard problem in the future. Once states know they can engage in reckless spending and have the federal government bail them out it will encourage more of them to do so. Eventually every state will want to be bailed out and there will be no states left to do the bailing.

    Democrats want to continue the shut down to cause as much damage to the economy as possible…and blame it on Trump. The Democrats couldn’t care less about the Ameicans hurt by the shut down.

    • Replies: @Truth

    Democrats want to continue the shut down to cause as much damage to the economy as possible…and blame it on Trump
     
    Has the Commie in Chief come out and unilaterally stated the the Republicans are in favor of re-opening the country, and that only the democrats are in favor of the shutdown?

    Great, so do us all a favor, go to you favorite grassy knoll for lunch, and fill your mouth with as much greenery as possible so that you will stop bleating this phony left-right paradigm nonsense over the internet.
  8. @SFG
    This is an excellent point overall, but you should note it's usually the blue states that have been net taxpayers.

    it’s usually the blue states that have been net taxpayers.

    Thanks for pointing this out, Schumer For God.

    People who are all in on progressive taxation should accept that it is more than just for the wealthiest states to pay more, much, much, more.

  9. vok3 says:

    “Blame it on Democrats” ignores the more fundamental point. You can re-open, but that won’t get you anywhere, because the general public is going to be extremely cautious for a while. We’ve surpassed deaths from a bad flu YEAR in just six weeks, with only a fraction of the country exposed. “Resolved cases” in all countries with a major outbreak has been converging toward 20% dead – this neglects asymptomatic and minor/never-tested cases, of course, but that still leaves a very noticeable fraction. We’re guaranteed at this point to hit 100K deaths in the USA, with 200K fairly probable and 2M still very much in play. Until there’s some indication this thing is getting under control and/or has reliable treatment available, people will continue to be cautious.

    Sailer has a story up about an axe-throwing place that reopened and got 2 customers for the whole weekend.

    You can reopen the beaches and parks (and should) but that won’t fix the “but muh conomy” problem. Beaches and parks don’t drive the velocity of money up noticeably. Having somebody else prepare your food for you is a huge luxury. Running everything on debt works as long as you never stop running. Theme parks and cruise ships are pure disposable income. “Normal” life involves a huge amount of luxuries that, as a matter of plain fact, people don’t NEED to get by. The muhconomy is going to stay devastated until this gets taken into account.

    Adjustments will have to be made and the sooner they get made the better. To borrow a line from H. Beam Piper, it is easier to banish a habit of thought than a piece of knowledge.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    Yes, but there's more. While the economy opens up to small crowds, those relatively more open states (or countries in the case of Sweden) aren't hit much harder than the places where the lockdowns remain in place. It's a weird sort of stasis we're in. How it resolves, I'm not sure, but this isn't sustainable.
    , @dfordoom

    “Normal” life involves a huge amount of luxuries that, as a matter of plain fact, people don’t NEED to get by.
     
    That's true. But life without those unnecessary luxuries would be very grey and miserable. Having the bare necessities means having a pretty awful life.

    Unnecessary luxuries are a good thing because they're unnecessary. They're the things that make life worth living.

    Taking away the luxuries means taking the fun and the joy out of life. And taking the fun and the joy out of life is exactly what a lot of people seem to want. Welcome to the New Puritanism. It's just as miserable as the Old Puritanism.
  10. Make
    America
    Sick
    Again !

    MASA TRUMP 2020!

    Please Massa’ Trump, end de lachkdowns. We poors need de walk.

  11. res says:

    It is amazing to see such a narrow spread for every demographic group except Democrats and Republicans (36-45) when Democrats (19) and Republicans (60) are almost 2x the width of that range away from its max/min.

    Any thoughts on what that might mean? The sample size is probably not enough to drill down into the crosstabs even if we had the data, so I think all we can do is speculate.

    P.S. AE, have you seen results remotely like this before?

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    No, not that I'm able to recall.
  12. vok3 says:

    The Dem/Rep split is very easy to explain. Democrats are largely urban. Republicans are largely rural. The virus spreads easier in cities, so Reps can pretend it out of existence more successfully.

    Also, Dems think government oversight is good, Reps think it’s bad, and there’s a prisoner’s dilemma at work here – “I need money so my business is staying open and my sincere regrets for anybody who gets sick as a result BUT I NEED MONEY” is a motivation that is fairly compelling, and governmental mandates are the only way to force general cooperation as opposed to selfish defections (“selfish” in the sense of the prisoner’s dilemma, not as a value judgement). Dems will naturally be more favorable to that, and Reps less so.

    It’s a perfect storm. Logic and evidence will not enter into it until after the fact.

    • Replies: @res
    True, but it is still surprising all of the other categories split so evenly.

    Looking at the underlying data a bit (this is question 54F in the poll). AE left out some of the categories (Education, Region, Ideology), but those mostly seem to conform to the same patterns.

    One thing which caught my eye is Republican primary voters were even more emphatic about reopening restaurants (about 65%).

    Sadly, YouGov does not seem to break things out by urban/rural/etc.

    BTW, one fun trend in this is to notice the proportion of Not Sure responses is linear by education level.
    HS or less 9%, Some college 6%, College grad 3%, Postgrad 1%
    , @Almost Missouri

    "The Dem/Rep split is very easy to explain. Democrats are largely urban. Republicans are largely rural. The virus spreads easier in cities, so Reps can pretend it out of existence more successfully."
     
    It's not just pretense that makes Reds less concerned. Detached single-family homes, no public transport, fewer enclosed spaces, plenty of natural UV sunlight to disinfect everything: rural populations really do have less to worry about. Have there been any serious COVID outbreaks in rural areas?

    Simultaneously, Reds know the Govt-Media-Complex won't be making any extra effort to help them, either against the virus or against the self-inflicted economic collapse, so why should they burn their savings waiting for the Blues who hate them to get their own act together, when they probably never will?

    Reds are being perfectly rational.
    , @Audacious Epigone
    It's weird to mock them for needing the money. Reds do need it more than blues because blues are more likely to be in government, including education--where this whole thing has been a boon, with less working and a stimulus on top of uninterrupted paychecks--living primarily off welfare, or college-aged kids who are able to live at home.
  13. res says:
    @vok3
    The Dem/Rep split is very easy to explain. Democrats are largely urban. Republicans are largely rural. The virus spreads easier in cities, so Reps can pretend it out of existence more successfully.

    Also, Dems think government oversight is good, Reps think it's bad, and there's a prisoner's dilemma at work here - "I need money so my business is staying open and my sincere regrets for anybody who gets sick as a result BUT I NEED MONEY" is a motivation that is fairly compelling, and governmental mandates are the only way to force general cooperation as opposed to selfish defections ("selfish" in the sense of the prisoner's dilemma, not as a value judgement). Dems will naturally be more favorable to that, and Reps less so.

    It's a perfect storm. Logic and evidence will not enter into it until after the fact.

    True, but it is still surprising all of the other categories split so evenly.

    Looking at the underlying data a bit (this is question 54F in the poll). AE left out some of the categories (Education, Region, Ideology), but those mostly seem to conform to the same patterns.

    One thing which caught my eye is Republican primary voters were even more emphatic about reopening restaurants (about 65%).

    Sadly, YouGov does not seem to break things out by urban/rural/etc.

    BTW, one fun trend in this is to notice the proportion of Not Sure responses is linear by education level.
    HS or less 9%, Some college 6%, College grad 3%, Postgrad 1%

    • Replies: @anon
    BTW, one fun trend in this is to notice the proportion of Not Sure responses is linear by education level.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVyRkl5qNb8
    , @The Alarmist

    BTW, one fun trend in this is to notice the proportion of Not Sure responses is linear by education level.

    HS or less 9%, Some college 6%, College grad 3%, Postgrad 1%
     

    Proof that indoctrination and propaganda really work. Josef Goebbels could only dream of this sort of event: He needed an actual total war to get away with asking the people to pitch in for a total war.

    The banner then: "TOTALER KRIEG – KÜRZESTER KRIEG"

    The banner now: "STAY HOME, STAY SAFE, SAVE LIVES"

    , @Audacious Epigone
    And yet, internet handle aside, that's probably the best answer available.
  14. Anonymous[257] • Disclaimer says:
    @SFG
    This is an excellent point overall, but you should note it's usually the blue states that have been net taxpayers.

    What demographic information about red states might you be eliding?

  15. @vok3
    The Dem/Rep split is very easy to explain. Democrats are largely urban. Republicans are largely rural. The virus spreads easier in cities, so Reps can pretend it out of existence more successfully.

    Also, Dems think government oversight is good, Reps think it's bad, and there's a prisoner's dilemma at work here - "I need money so my business is staying open and my sincere regrets for anybody who gets sick as a result BUT I NEED MONEY" is a motivation that is fairly compelling, and governmental mandates are the only way to force general cooperation as opposed to selfish defections ("selfish" in the sense of the prisoner's dilemma, not as a value judgement). Dems will naturally be more favorable to that, and Reps less so.

    It's a perfect storm. Logic and evidence will not enter into it until after the fact.

    “The Dem/Rep split is very easy to explain. Democrats are largely urban. Republicans are largely rural. The virus spreads easier in cities, so Reps can pretend it out of existence more successfully.”

    It’s not just pretense that makes Reds less concerned. Detached single-family homes, no public transport, fewer enclosed spaces, plenty of natural UV sunlight to disinfect everything: rural populations really do have less to worry about. Have there been any serious COVID outbreaks in rural areas?

    Simultaneously, Reds know the Govt-Media-Complex won’t be making any extra effort to help them, either against the virus or against the self-inflicted economic collapse, so why should they burn their savings waiting for the Blues who hate them to get their own act together, when they probably never will?

    Reds are being perfectly rational.

    • Replies: @Jedi Night

    Have there been any serious COVID outbreaks in rural areas?
     
    Navajo reservation
    , @Twinkie

    It’s not just pretense that makes Reds less concerned. Detached single-family homes, no public transport, fewer enclosed spaces, plenty of natural UV sunlight to disinfect everything: rural populations really do have less to worry about. Have there been any serious COVID outbreaks in rural areas?

    ... Reds are being perfectly rational.
     
    I hate to say this, but they are not being rational. A part of the explanation is their distrust of authority and experts, and, unfortunately, of their lower education/intelligence level.

    Take Iowa as an example. Initially, the infection rate was extremely low - not surprising, given the insularity of the state and its population. But it now has over 10,000 confirmed cases and climbing. And one would expect the Des Moines area, its capital and the largest city, to have the highest infection rate. Polk County, which contains Des Moines, has 374.9 cases per 100,000 (and a death rate of 8.9 per 100,000). However, it is far surpassed by more rural counties, such as:

    Black Hawk County 1,036 cases per, 100,000 (13.5 deaths per 100,000)
    Tama County, 1,733.2 per 100,000 (64.2 deaths per 100,000)
    Marshall County, 1,606.6 per 100,000 (5 deaths per 100,000)
    Poweshiek County, 392.4 per 100,000 (26.9 deaths per 100,000)
    Woodbury County 1,265.6, per 100,000 (2.9 deaths per 100,000)
    Woodbury's neighboring Dakota County in Nebraska has staggering 4990.9 cases per 100,000 people (14.8 deaths per 100,000)

    Pandemics tend not to spread to rural areas quickly, due to lower population density and distance from metropolitan areas. However, once they reach such areas, there are additional concerns that relate to scarcity of public health and hygiene programs as well as lack of urgent/intensive medical care (hundreds of rural hospitals have closed in the past couple of decades due to consolidation and financial woes). This is normally not a big problem - the odd accident victim or two are transported by air to the nearest large hospital in urban areas or college towns. But it becomes a significant problem when the urgent cases appear all at once or in a short period of time.

    Moreoever, the populations in the rural areas are considerably older and sicker, which appears to be a greater problem with this virus than is usual.
  16. @SFG
    This is an excellent point overall, but you should note it's usually the blue states that have been net taxpayers.

    Paying Social Security taxes from your metro zip while you work, then collecting Social Security benefits from your exurb zip after you retire can cause that appearance.

    • Replies: @res
    It would be interesting to quantify that effect. My guess is it does not explain that much of the Red/Blue state net federal transfers differences. But it would be good to have a real estimate.

    As far as I am aware this is the best data we have on the balance of payments for states.
    https://rockinst.org/issue-areas/fiscal-analysis/balance-of-payments-portal/
    Be sure to change the graphic to per capita to make it more meaningful.

    P.S. One thing I had not realized before is how much more VA and MD take in than they pay out. I guess that is from proximity to DC.
  17. res says:
    @Almost Missouri
    Paying Social Security taxes from your metro zip while you work, then collecting Social Security benefits from your exurb zip after you retire can cause that appearance.

    It would be interesting to quantify that effect. My guess is it does not explain that much of the Red/Blue state net federal transfers differences. But it would be good to have a real estimate.

    As far as I am aware this is the best data we have on the balance of payments for states.
    https://rockinst.org/issue-areas/fiscal-analysis/balance-of-payments-portal/
    Be sure to change the graphic to per capita to make it more meaningful.

    P.S. One thing I had not realized before is how much more VA and MD take in than they pay out. I guess that is from proximity to DC.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    Yeah, it's actually more complicated, but I was just making a quick one-liner. A fuller treatment of the subject would include:

    • The Old South red states include large tranches of underclass blacks, who soak up a lot of federal aid money. These citizens vote blue, but get outvoted by their red neighbors. But they still give their red states a blue-appearing appetite for fed funds.

    • Military spending is one of the biggest categories of fed spending. Most military bases are in red states. One can argue that "spending is spending", and that's true to a certain extent, but I think a distinction can also be drawn between disbursements directly to citizens (welfare, soc. sec.) vs. massive orders of jet fuel and tank parts that just happen to be booked in red states and do not directly enter citizens' pockets.

    • The pay-soc-sec-tax-urban/collect-soc-sec-benefits-rural cycle, already mentioned.

    • What I think the biggest driver of the blue-net-pay-red-net-take meme is the accounting artifact of how corporate organizations report revenues and pay taxes. Example: Colgate-Palmolive is headquartered in New York City, yet it sells toothpaste and other stuff in every state of the union. How many of the products that it sells are made in NYC? Probably none. Yet every time it cuts a check for federal taxes, that check comes from NYC and goes to the local IRS office where it is recorded as "Federal Taxes from New York". But in reality, very little of the production (or even consumption) happened in New York, yet the entire tax payment is credited there. So if Colgate-Palmolive paid $100m in fed taxes "in NY", probably $99m of that activity actually happened elsewhere. Multiply that by all corporate headquarters gravitating to cities bluer than where their actual production happens, and you have the mass illusion of blue productivity.

    Anyhow, there's probably even more to it, but I didn't intend to get this deep into it when I made the original remark.

    P.S. Thanks for the interesting map link. Yeah, proximity to DC apparently has something to do with Federal largesse. Note that top Federal trough slurpers MD is a deep blue state, while VA is a bluing shade of purple.

  18. The American left always needs to have a white-knuckled grip on some Big Lie. The Big Lie is perennial, when one has been thoroughly trashed another must surely arise.

  19. vok3 says:

    Almost Missouri –

    “Have there been any serious COVID outbreaks in rural areas? ”

    Depends on what you mean by serious. Where I’m at, a Trump-voting agricultural area where the county seat is a city of ~50K, we had our first case mid-March, passed 400 cases a week or so back, with 20 deaths so far. The graph is a perfect exponential. Just need to see how long it tracks that.

    I’m convinced that rural areas haven’t seen major problems yet just because it spreads slower there, not because it spreads slow enough for the people there to be safe. Things will become clearer in 2-3 months, I think. I’ll be perfectly willing to admit error if it fizzles. In the meantime, I’m working on the garden.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri

    "city of ~50K, ... 20 deaths so far"
     
    Hmmm ... IFR = 0.04%.

    Meh. Lemme know when it crosses the flu-season-bogie of 0.1%. If it's exponential, that shouldn't be long.

    In the meantime, SW Georgia has almost an order of magnitude lead on you. [See my reply to Twinkie, above.]
  20. “They say it’s hard to identify a historical inflection point in anything other than retrospect. Not here. Not this time. This one is obvious.”

    been posting about this for 2 months. this is the moment the cold civil war became totally obvious.

    democrat voters are extremely happy to send the US into a depression if it means getting rid of Trump, and Republicans in general, forever. and why wouldn’t they be? that makes all the sense in the world. an economy can recover from a depression. killing your enemy is permanent.

    • Replies: @Elmer's Washable School Glue
    You've picked an extremely strange issue upon which to claim the "cold civil war has become obvious" considering 40% of Republicans (which I would say implies at least a third of Trump voters) agree with the restaurant lockdown.

    If it weren't for Trump's initial skeptical comments on the virus, this wouldn't even be a partisan issue to begin with. As it is there is still way more intraparty ideological diversity than on stuff like immigration.
  21. Crisis is how Rome was transitioned from a Republic to an Imperial Realm.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    We did some ruminating on that a couple of years ago.
  22. @res
    True, but it is still surprising all of the other categories split so evenly.

    Looking at the underlying data a bit (this is question 54F in the poll). AE left out some of the categories (Education, Region, Ideology), but those mostly seem to conform to the same patterns.

    One thing which caught my eye is Republican primary voters were even more emphatic about reopening restaurants (about 65%).

    Sadly, YouGov does not seem to break things out by urban/rural/etc.

    BTW, one fun trend in this is to notice the proportion of Not Sure responses is linear by education level.
    HS or less 9%, Some college 6%, College grad 3%, Postgrad 1%

    BTW, one fun trend in this is to notice the proportion of Not Sure responses is linear by education level.

  23. @res
    True, but it is still surprising all of the other categories split so evenly.

    Looking at the underlying data a bit (this is question 54F in the poll). AE left out some of the categories (Education, Region, Ideology), but those mostly seem to conform to the same patterns.

    One thing which caught my eye is Republican primary voters were even more emphatic about reopening restaurants (about 65%).

    Sadly, YouGov does not seem to break things out by urban/rural/etc.

    BTW, one fun trend in this is to notice the proportion of Not Sure responses is linear by education level.
    HS or less 9%, Some college 6%, College grad 3%, Postgrad 1%

    BTW, one fun trend in this is to notice the proportion of Not Sure responses is linear by education level.

    HS or less 9%, Some college 6%, College grad 3%, Postgrad 1%

    Proof that indoctrination and propaganda really work. Josef Goebbels could only dream of this sort of event: He needed an actual total war to get away with asking the people to pitch in for a total war.

    The banner then: “TOTALER KRIEG – KÜRZESTER KRIEG”

    The banner now: “STAY HOME, STAY SAFE, SAVE LIVES”

  24. There is an entire psychiatric literature on “anticipatory anxiety.” Perhaps Democrats have higher levels of this personality aspect than do Republicans. I have seen a few articles on how anticipatory anxiety is at play these days, but these have only been at the “psychology today” level. Fauci, Birx, and various other docs have opined on this, even though it is not their expertise. This is a poor practice, the public obeisantly listens to them, and this has had severe consequences. By contrast, I have not heard any psychiatrists opining on virology or molecular biology. Docs tend to deride psychiatrists until they have a family member with a psychiatric problem, at which point they quickly approach a psychiatric colleague for advice.

  25. AE’s assessment that 2020 is a historical inflection point is right on the money.

    2020 will end up being an inflection year for a great many things. I think the whole globalist attitude along with the idea of giving free rein to the banks and the corporate kleptocracy is also coming to an end. It’s dawning on the masses that they’ve been well and truly screwed by just about every large societal institution, public and private. This is not going to end well, but it’s damn sure going to end.

    Back in the early ’90s when I was a wee lad of about 11 or 12, I also predicted that 2020 would be an inflection point for something else—computer usage. It occurred to me then that this was the year that we would reach the limits of what computers can do. I do not mean raw computational power as in Moore’s Law (although this is also declining; Moore’s Law is no longer a law), but rather the ability for societies to economically utilize computers for self-evidently beneficial and constructive purposes. There is a point of diminishing returns when adding more layers of technology becomes a net cost rather than a benefit. I think that not only have we reached this level in 2020, we’ve overshot it. This is going to become evident soon.

    • Replies: @iffen
    I think the whole globalist attitude along with the idea of giving free rein to the banks and the corporate kleptocracy is also coming to an end.

    ROFLMAO
    , @Johnny Rico
    I agree with you on many levels. But computing has not reached its limits necessarily.

    I tend to believe that 2007 was the peak year, however, with the starting widespread use of smartphones and Facebook.

    I think the United States from a power and economic standpoint peaked around 1969-72 with the Vietnam War and the peak in American (conventional) oil-production.

    I believe we have been in very slow decline since then.

    Robert Gordon's "The Rise and Fall of American Growth" makes a decent case that the numerous advances in multiple fields between say 1920 and 1940 were much more game-changing than all the advances of computing and technology and their effect on productivity from 1980 til the present.

    The speed of penetration and effects of air-conditioning, refrigeration, and television were truly amazing but don't get much attention these days. And of course there is still the question of "what's next?"

    This is a decent article by John Gray

    https://www.newstatesman.com/international/2020/04/why-crisis-turning-point-history

  26. @Intelligent Dasein

    AE’s assessment that 2020 is a historical inflection point is right on the money.
     
    2020 will end up being an inflection year for a great many things. I think the whole globalist attitude along with the idea of giving free rein to the banks and the corporate kleptocracy is also coming to an end. It's dawning on the masses that they've been well and truly screwed by just about every large societal institution, public and private. This is not going to end well, but it's damn sure going to end.

    Back in the early '90s when I was a wee lad of about 11 or 12, I also predicted that 2020 would be an inflection point for something else---computer usage. It occurred to me then that this was the year that we would reach the limits of what computers can do. I do not mean raw computational power as in Moore's Law (although this is also declining; Moore's Law is no longer a law), but rather the ability for societies to economically utilize computers for self-evidently beneficial and constructive purposes. There is a point of diminishing returns when adding more layers of technology becomes a net cost rather than a benefit. I think that not only have we reached this level in 2020, we've overshot it. This is going to become evident soon.

    I think the whole globalist attitude along with the idea of giving free rein to the banks and the corporate kleptocracy is also coming to an end.

    ROFLMAO

  27. @Realist
    Democrats want to continue the shut down to cause as much damage to the economy as possible...and blame it on Trump. The Democrats couldn't care less about the Ameicans hurt by the shut down.

    Democrats want to continue the shut down to cause as much damage to the economy as possible…and blame it on Trump

    Has the Commie in Chief come out and unilaterally stated the the Republicans are in favor of re-opening the country, and that only the democrats are in favor of the shutdown?

    Great, so do us all a favor, go to you favorite grassy knoll for lunch, and fill your mouth with as much greenery as possible so that you will stop bleating this phony left-right paradigm nonsense over the internet.

    • Replies: @Che Blutarsky
    That was the stupidest post I've read in a while, maybe since the last time I read one of your posts.
  28. By the time Republicans hit their 60s, they have learned the hard way that they’re supposed to die already rather than take money from the transfer programs funding the anti-American womb war. In particular from their 50s to age 65, they learn that a job as Walmart stocker is their lot in life. When Republicans are younger, their masters lead them around by the burdizzos in “jobs” because the poor suckers think they aren’t “entitled” to anything unless they serve their masters despite enjoying far less support for their replacement reproduction than negro slaves enjoyed in the antebellum south. So what’s the surprise when Democrats are all for staying home, safe in the assurance that they are “entitled” to support of greater than replacement reproduction? They serve their masters at the ballot box and generally intimidating their “oppressors”. We can ignore white Democrats who are either independently wealthy limousine liberals or so ethnomasochistic that they’re fine with sacrificing themselves on the altar of their Diverse moral betters.

  29. @Almost Missouri

    "The Dem/Rep split is very easy to explain. Democrats are largely urban. Republicans are largely rural. The virus spreads easier in cities, so Reps can pretend it out of existence more successfully."
     
    It's not just pretense that makes Reds less concerned. Detached single-family homes, no public transport, fewer enclosed spaces, plenty of natural UV sunlight to disinfect everything: rural populations really do have less to worry about. Have there been any serious COVID outbreaks in rural areas?

    Simultaneously, Reds know the Govt-Media-Complex won't be making any extra effort to help them, either against the virus or against the self-inflicted economic collapse, so why should they burn their savings waiting for the Blues who hate them to get their own act together, when they probably never will?

    Reds are being perfectly rational.

    Have there been any serious COVID outbreaks in rural areas?

    Navajo reservation

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
  30. @prime noticer
    "They say it’s hard to identify a historical inflection point in anything other than retrospect. Not here. Not this time. This one is obvious."

    been posting about this for 2 months. this is the moment the cold civil war became totally obvious.

    democrat voters are extremely happy to send the US into a depression if it means getting rid of Trump, and Republicans in general, forever. and why wouldn't they be? that makes all the sense in the world. an economy can recover from a depression. killing your enemy is permanent.

    You’ve picked an extremely strange issue upon which to claim the “cold civil war has become obvious” considering 40% of Republicans (which I would say implies at least a third of Trump voters) agree with the restaurant lockdown.

    If it weren’t for Trump’s initial skeptical comments on the virus, this wouldn’t even be a partisan issue to begin with. As it is there is still way more intraparty ideological diversity than on stuff like immigration.

  31. @Mark G.
    Democrats want to keep everything locked down but not pay the costs involved. Democrat run California was just given 350 million dollars by the federal government to pay their state unemployment benefits with another 10 billion to come. Democrat run Illinois is in line right behind them. So the Republican states that open up will reduce their state unemployment benefit costs and start paying taxes again on economic activity and then the tax money will be given to Democrat states that have decided to keep everything closed so they can give unemployment benefits to everyone in their state out of work.

    This is going to create a moral hazard problem in the future. Once states know they can engage in reckless spending and have the federal government bail them out it will encourage more of them to do so. Eventually every state will want to be bailed out and there will be no states left to do the bailing.

    By pledging to do “whatever it takes”, the Fed and Treasury have already created a moral hazard. If the monetary regime is able to navigate through this crisis, it can handle anything. I don’t think it can handle this, though.

  32. @res
    It is amazing to see such a narrow spread for every demographic group except Democrats and Republicans (36-45) when Democrats (19) and Republicans (60) are almost 2x the width of that range away from its max/min.

    Any thoughts on what that might mean? The sample size is probably not enough to drill down into the crosstabs even if we had the data, so I think all we can do is speculate.

    P.S. AE, have you seen results remotely like this before?

    No, not that I’m able to recall.

  33. @vok3
    "Blame it on Democrats" ignores the more fundamental point. You can re-open, but that won't get you anywhere, because the general public is going to be extremely cautious for a while. We've surpassed deaths from a bad flu YEAR in just six weeks, with only a fraction of the country exposed. "Resolved cases" in all countries with a major outbreak has been converging toward 20% dead - this neglects asymptomatic and minor/never-tested cases, of course, but that still leaves a very noticeable fraction. We're guaranteed at this point to hit 100K deaths in the USA, with 200K fairly probable and 2M still very much in play. Until there's some indication this thing is getting under control and/or has reliable treatment available, people will continue to be cautious.

    Sailer has a story up about an axe-throwing place that reopened and got 2 customers for the whole weekend.

    You can reopen the beaches and parks (and should) but that won't fix the "but muh conomy" problem. Beaches and parks don't drive the velocity of money up noticeably. Having somebody else prepare your food for you is a huge luxury. Running everything on debt works as long as you never stop running. Theme parks and cruise ships are pure disposable income. "Normal" life involves a huge amount of luxuries that, as a matter of plain fact, people don't NEED to get by. The muhconomy is going to stay devastated until this gets taken into account.

    Adjustments will have to be made and the sooner they get made the better. To borrow a line from H. Beam Piper, it is easier to banish a habit of thought than a piece of knowledge.

    Yes, but there’s more. While the economy opens up to small crowds, those relatively more open states (or countries in the case of Sweden) aren’t hit much harder than the places where the lockdowns remain in place. It’s a weird sort of stasis we’re in. How it resolves, I’m not sure, but this isn’t sustainable.

  34. @res
    True, but it is still surprising all of the other categories split so evenly.

    Looking at the underlying data a bit (this is question 54F in the poll). AE left out some of the categories (Education, Region, Ideology), but those mostly seem to conform to the same patterns.

    One thing which caught my eye is Republican primary voters were even more emphatic about reopening restaurants (about 65%).

    Sadly, YouGov does not seem to break things out by urban/rural/etc.

    BTW, one fun trend in this is to notice the proportion of Not Sure responses is linear by education level.
    HS or less 9%, Some college 6%, College grad 3%, Postgrad 1%

    And yet, internet handle aside, that’s probably the best answer available.

  35. @vok3
    The Dem/Rep split is very easy to explain. Democrats are largely urban. Republicans are largely rural. The virus spreads easier in cities, so Reps can pretend it out of existence more successfully.

    Also, Dems think government oversight is good, Reps think it's bad, and there's a prisoner's dilemma at work here - "I need money so my business is staying open and my sincere regrets for anybody who gets sick as a result BUT I NEED MONEY" is a motivation that is fairly compelling, and governmental mandates are the only way to force general cooperation as opposed to selfish defections ("selfish" in the sense of the prisoner's dilemma, not as a value judgement). Dems will naturally be more favorable to that, and Reps less so.

    It's a perfect storm. Logic and evidence will not enter into it until after the fact.

    It’s weird to mock them for needing the money. Reds do need it more than blues because blues are more likely to be in government, including education–where this whole thing has been a boon, with less working and a stimulus on top of uninterrupted paychecks–living primarily off welfare, or college-aged kids who are able to live at home.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
    Blue collar workers seldom have occupations that allow them the option of working from home.

    TBH, this whole experience has led me to reflect on what really keeps a society functioning and who is really deeply necessary. It isn't people like me. It is people who usually don't have the luxury of staying home all day.

  36. @The Alarmist
    Crisis is how Rome was transitioned from a Republic to an Imperial Realm.

    We did some ruminating on that a couple of years ago.

    • Replies: @another anon
    What lesson? In your meditations, people you cite are sure that we are "following" trajectory of ancient Rome, but are unsure about minor details whether "we are" in time of Gracchus, Sulla, Caesar, Caligula or Diocletian.

    Assuming, we are "destined" to repeat fate of Roman Empire, and not Assyrian, Mongol , Zulu or any other numerous empires of history.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_empires
  37. Liberals see their ideological heroes in Western Europe doing the big oppressive lockdowns so they think it’s best to copy them. These people literally cannot think for themselves. But then you mention Sweden and they erupt. “Oh, Fox News’ new favorite country” they sneer, as they no longer view Sweden as a sovereign country, with an interesting story to tell, but rather as a political tool for Fox News. They’re psychopathic.

    • Replies: @216
    If we imposed partisan quotas in academia, I suspect this problem would go away.

    There's something wrong when the only major university that is "right wing" is BYU.
  38. vok3 says:

    AE – mocking? Well, maybe. Yes, now I think about it, people living paycheck to paycheck, running everything on credit cards, finding home schooling their own freaking children to be an intolerable burden, completely unable to stick a “GONE FISHING” sign on the front door for a couple months, and absolutely willing to tempt others into danger as compensation for their own utter inability to prepare for bad times, are definitely a topic I find worthy of mockery. And it’s not weird at all.

    I realize the entire country has been operating like this for living memory. That’s a reason. It’s not an excuse. I heard enough from the old folks about the 1930s to know what I ought to be doing, even when I wasn’t doing it. When I was a part-time retail shelf stocker in rural nowhere, or when I was deep in Blue America living the rootless urbanite life, no matter what, I had a pantry with several months’ worth of canned goods and a certain amount of cash and other necessities. That took me just a couple pay periods to set up, each time. I’ve wasted a crapload of money on stupid stuff, but I always made sure the basics were taken care of first. Anybody paying for a smartphone and a cable subscription has absolutely zero grounds to claim they can’t do the same.

    This disease has not only revealed the fecklessness and incompetence of the American government. It has also revealed the fecklessness, incompetence, and self-indulgence of the American people, across the political spectrum.

    When I was, I think, 17 or 18, I went to a young writers’ summer camp type thing. I remember the guys in my suite talking amazedly about something one of the girls was telling them about. She got tons of credit card offers, and she used them, and she’d buy herself all sorts of hugely expensive things with them – stereos, TVs, huge quantites of music, vacation trips, whatever. She’d pair them off: put an expense on one credit card, then pay it off with a second card next month, then the following month pay the second card off with the first, repeat forever. “And whenever I want something new, I just get another pair of credit cards!” The guys in my suite knew there had to be a catch somewhere but they couldn’t figure out what.

    All America has been living like that girl. It’s goddamned stupid and it’s high time it stopped.

    Mockery? Yes, absolutely. If they’re in a bad spot, it is their own damn fault.

    For some crazy reason I expected the right wing to be better prepared for a situation of this sort. There was even a song about it – “A Country Boy Can Survive.” Well, for most of these jokers, THAT was a goddamned lie.

    Do I sound annoyed? I guess I am.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    I had a pantry with several months’ worth of canned goods and a certain amount of cash and other necessities. That took me just a couple pay periods to set up, each time. I’ve wasted a crapload of money on stupid stuff, but I always made sure the basics were taken care of first. Anybody paying for a smartphone and a cable subscription has absolutely zero grounds to claim they can’t do the same.
     
    Hear hear! Live like the Mormons (just don't follow their wacky theology). Eat modestly and exercise (in other words, be fit), tithe to the local parish and/or contribute in some way to the community, save a percentage of the income no matter how small, and be prepared for emergencies (water, food, medical supplies, batteries, and, yes, guns and ammo). Stay married, don't live on debt, and raise self-reliant children. Basic stuff, really.

    This disease has not only revealed the fecklessness and incompetence of the American government. It has also revealed the fecklessness, incompetence, and self-indulgence of the American people, across the political spectrum.
     
    Yes, it's true, there is much blame to go around, but self-serving leaders tend to foster a feckless, incompetent, and self-indulgent population. Our upper class has nourished a culture of non-judgment to the ill effects for the lower classes that imbibed this culture of no shame and no dignity, all the while the elite class has worked hard to make itself more educated and economically competitive. One might almost think that was intentional.
    , @nebulafox
    I didn't own a credit card until last year. Back when my life was a complete trainwreck, this probably saved things from getting far worse than they needed to be.

    >Mockery? Yes, absolutely. If they’re in a bad spot, it is their own damn fault.

    Learning personal responsibility on your own after a lifetime of bad habits, vice, and learned helplessness is not impossible to do as an adult, so I do agree with you to a point. But I can vouch for the fact that it is significantly more difficult than it would be if you had the right environment as a child or an adolescent. And most people are, by definition, average with average willpower and reflect the societal average around them. Mocking them might be cathartic, but it is seldom productive.

    A fish rots from the head. The quickest way to see broader societal changes is the behavior of the elites and what they encourage from society: and this needs to be done with actions, not words.

    , @Audacious Epigone
    Sagacious words regarding personal responsibility.

    In defense of Joe Sixpack, decades of easy money have made it impossible for him to save without being stolen from. When the safest investment vehicles can't even get a 0% real return, something is very wrong.

    The two things--people working and the supply chain--are inextricably linked. Hospitals exceeding capacity was the justification given for the lock down. Americans wouldn't accept any other reason. If exceeding capacity happens anywhere, it looks like it's going to be the exception rather than the rule.
  39. @Almost Missouri

    "The Dem/Rep split is very easy to explain. Democrats are largely urban. Republicans are largely rural. The virus spreads easier in cities, so Reps can pretend it out of existence more successfully."
     
    It's not just pretense that makes Reds less concerned. Detached single-family homes, no public transport, fewer enclosed spaces, plenty of natural UV sunlight to disinfect everything: rural populations really do have less to worry about. Have there been any serious COVID outbreaks in rural areas?

    Simultaneously, Reds know the Govt-Media-Complex won't be making any extra effort to help them, either against the virus or against the self-inflicted economic collapse, so why should they burn their savings waiting for the Blues who hate them to get their own act together, when they probably never will?

    Reds are being perfectly rational.

    It’s not just pretense that makes Reds less concerned. Detached single-family homes, no public transport, fewer enclosed spaces, plenty of natural UV sunlight to disinfect everything: rural populations really do have less to worry about. Have there been any serious COVID outbreaks in rural areas?

    … Reds are being perfectly rational.

    I hate to say this, but they are not being rational. A part of the explanation is their distrust of authority and experts, and, unfortunately, of their lower education/intelligence level.

    Take Iowa as an example. Initially, the infection rate was extremely low – not surprising, given the insularity of the state and its population. But it now has over 10,000 confirmed cases and climbing. And one would expect the Des Moines area, its capital and the largest city, to have the highest infection rate. Polk County, which contains Des Moines, has 374.9 cases per 100,000 (and a death rate of 8.9 per 100,000). However, it is far surpassed by more rural counties, such as:

    Black Hawk County 1,036 cases per, 100,000 (13.5 deaths per 100,000)
    Tama County, 1,733.2 per 100,000 (64.2 deaths per 100,000)
    Marshall County, 1,606.6 per 100,000 (5 deaths per 100,000)
    Poweshiek County, 392.4 per 100,000 (26.9 deaths per 100,000)
    Woodbury County 1,265.6, per 100,000 (2.9 deaths per 100,000)
    Woodbury’s neighboring Dakota County in Nebraska has staggering 4990.9 cases per 100,000 people (14.8 deaths per 100,000)

    Pandemics tend not to spread to rural areas quickly, due to lower population density and distance from metropolitan areas. However, once they reach such areas, there are additional concerns that relate to scarcity of public health and hygiene programs as well as lack of urgent/intensive medical care (hundreds of rural hospitals have closed in the past couple of decades due to consolidation and financial woes). This is normally not a big problem – the odd accident victim or two are transported by air to the nearest large hospital in urban areas or college towns. But it becomes a significant problem when the urgent cases appear all at once or in a short period of time.

    Moreoever, the populations in the rural areas are considerably older and sicker, which appears to be a greater problem with this virus than is usual.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    Thanks. I thought I was going to have to stand corrected here, so I did what I should have done before posting my original comment: looked for a county-level per capita virus map. I did eventually find one, but it was only per capita for cases, which statistic is strongly artifacted from testing. What I really wanted was a COVID death per capita map. Yes, COVID death coding has its own problems, but these are probably less severe than the testing skew. Anyhow, long story short, couldn't find any, so finally downloaded county-level death and pop data from https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/ and rolled my own.

    What did it show?

    Out of 3000-odd US counties, most have yet to record a single COVID death. All of the counties at zero COVID deaths are rural (average pop ~20,000).

    Unsurprisingly, the NYC cluster really is the national hotspot. The NYC-metro counties are all at IFR of 0.1% or above. (Bronx County highest at about 0.25%.) How much of this is aggressive coding? Who knows? However much, there are a lot of deaths in the NYC area. Indeed the NYC-metro counties by themselves account for nearly half of all the US COVID deaths.

    The secondary hotspots are New Orleans and Wayne County MI, aka Detroit, at about 0.1% IFR. So no surprise there.

    The per capita view did yield a surprise but it wasn't in Iowa or Navajo country, but in Georgia. Specifically, these nine counties, all of which I had never heard of and have populations less than 100,000, have IFRs above 0.1%:

    Randolph County, GA
    Terrell County, GA
    Early County, GA
    St. John the Baptist Parish, LA
    Mitchell County, GA
    Dougherty County, GA
    Turner County, GA
    Wilcox County, GA
    Clay County, GA

    Eight of the nine are Southwestern Georgia "Black Belt" counties. The Louisiana parish is in the state's toe so its deaths are probably due to proximity to NOLA.

    So yes, there is a rural outbreak that rivals the big three urban outbreaks, but it is not in Iowa (0.003%-0.06% IFR) or the Navajo Nation (0.02% IFR), but in SW Georgia (>0.1% IFR). I didn't know that, and now stand corrected.
  40. @vok3
    AE - mocking? Well, maybe. Yes, now I think about it, people living paycheck to paycheck, running everything on credit cards, finding home schooling their own freaking children to be an intolerable burden, completely unable to stick a "GONE FISHING" sign on the front door for a couple months, and absolutely willing to tempt others into danger as compensation for their own utter inability to prepare for bad times, are definitely a topic I find worthy of mockery. And it's not weird at all.

    I realize the entire country has been operating like this for living memory. That's a reason. It's not an excuse. I heard enough from the old folks about the 1930s to know what I ought to be doing, even when I wasn't doing it. When I was a part-time retail shelf stocker in rural nowhere, or when I was deep in Blue America living the rootless urbanite life, no matter what, I had a pantry with several months' worth of canned goods and a certain amount of cash and other necessities. That took me just a couple pay periods to set up, each time. I've wasted a crapload of money on stupid stuff, but I always made sure the basics were taken care of first. Anybody paying for a smartphone and a cable subscription has absolutely zero grounds to claim they can't do the same.

    This disease has not only revealed the fecklessness and incompetence of the American government. It has also revealed the fecklessness, incompetence, and self-indulgence of the American people, across the political spectrum.

    When I was, I think, 17 or 18, I went to a young writers' summer camp type thing. I remember the guys in my suite talking amazedly about something one of the girls was telling them about. She got tons of credit card offers, and she used them, and she'd buy herself all sorts of hugely expensive things with them - stereos, TVs, huge quantites of music, vacation trips, whatever. She'd pair them off: put an expense on one credit card, then pay it off with a second card next month, then the following month pay the second card off with the first, repeat forever. "And whenever I want something new, I just get another pair of credit cards!" The guys in my suite knew there had to be a catch somewhere but they couldn't figure out what.

    All America has been living like that girl. It's goddamned stupid and it's high time it stopped.

    Mockery? Yes, absolutely. If they're in a bad spot, it is their own damn fault.

    For some crazy reason I expected the right wing to be better prepared for a situation of this sort. There was even a song about it - "A Country Boy Can Survive." Well, for most of these jokers, THAT was a goddamned lie.

    Do I sound annoyed? I guess I am.

    I had a pantry with several months’ worth of canned goods and a certain amount of cash and other necessities. That took me just a couple pay periods to set up, each time. I’ve wasted a crapload of money on stupid stuff, but I always made sure the basics were taken care of first. Anybody paying for a smartphone and a cable subscription has absolutely zero grounds to claim they can’t do the same.

    Hear hear! Live like the Mormons (just don’t follow their wacky theology). Eat modestly and exercise (in other words, be fit), tithe to the local parish and/or contribute in some way to the community, save a percentage of the income no matter how small, and be prepared for emergencies (water, food, medical supplies, batteries, and, yes, guns and ammo). Stay married, don’t live on debt, and raise self-reliant children. Basic stuff, really.

    This disease has not only revealed the fecklessness and incompetence of the American government. It has also revealed the fecklessness, incompetence, and self-indulgence of the American people, across the political spectrum.

    Yes, it’s true, there is much blame to go around, but self-serving leaders tend to foster a feckless, incompetent, and self-indulgent population. Our upper class has nourished a culture of non-judgment to the ill effects for the lower classes that imbibed this culture of no shame and no dignity, all the while the elite class has worked hard to make itself more educated and economically competitive. One might almost think that was intentional.

  41. @Twinkie

    It’s not just pretense that makes Reds less concerned. Detached single-family homes, no public transport, fewer enclosed spaces, plenty of natural UV sunlight to disinfect everything: rural populations really do have less to worry about. Have there been any serious COVID outbreaks in rural areas?

    ... Reds are being perfectly rational.
     
    I hate to say this, but they are not being rational. A part of the explanation is their distrust of authority and experts, and, unfortunately, of their lower education/intelligence level.

    Take Iowa as an example. Initially, the infection rate was extremely low - not surprising, given the insularity of the state and its population. But it now has over 10,000 confirmed cases and climbing. And one would expect the Des Moines area, its capital and the largest city, to have the highest infection rate. Polk County, which contains Des Moines, has 374.9 cases per 100,000 (and a death rate of 8.9 per 100,000). However, it is far surpassed by more rural counties, such as:

    Black Hawk County 1,036 cases per, 100,000 (13.5 deaths per 100,000)
    Tama County, 1,733.2 per 100,000 (64.2 deaths per 100,000)
    Marshall County, 1,606.6 per 100,000 (5 deaths per 100,000)
    Poweshiek County, 392.4 per 100,000 (26.9 deaths per 100,000)
    Woodbury County 1,265.6, per 100,000 (2.9 deaths per 100,000)
    Woodbury's neighboring Dakota County in Nebraska has staggering 4990.9 cases per 100,000 people (14.8 deaths per 100,000)

    Pandemics tend not to spread to rural areas quickly, due to lower population density and distance from metropolitan areas. However, once they reach such areas, there are additional concerns that relate to scarcity of public health and hygiene programs as well as lack of urgent/intensive medical care (hundreds of rural hospitals have closed in the past couple of decades due to consolidation and financial woes). This is normally not a big problem - the odd accident victim or two are transported by air to the nearest large hospital in urban areas or college towns. But it becomes a significant problem when the urgent cases appear all at once or in a short period of time.

    Moreoever, the populations in the rural areas are considerably older and sicker, which appears to be a greater problem with this virus than is usual.

    Thanks. I thought I was going to have to stand corrected here, so I did what I should have done before posting my original comment: looked for a county-level per capita virus map. I did eventually find one, but it was only per capita for cases, which statistic is strongly artifacted from testing. What I really wanted was a COVID death per capita map. Yes, COVID death coding has its own problems, but these are probably less severe than the testing skew. Anyhow, long story short, couldn’t find any, so finally downloaded county-level death and pop data from https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/ and rolled my own.

    What did it show?

    Out of 3000-odd US counties, most have yet to record a single COVID death. All of the counties at zero COVID deaths are rural (average pop ~20,000).

    Unsurprisingly, the NYC cluster really is the national hotspot. The NYC-metro counties are all at IFR of 0.1% or above. (Bronx County highest at about 0.25%.) How much of this is aggressive coding? Who knows? However much, there are a lot of deaths in the NYC area. Indeed the NYC-metro counties by themselves account for nearly half of all the US COVID deaths.

    The secondary hotspots are New Orleans and Wayne County MI, aka Detroit, at about 0.1% IFR. So no surprise there.

    The per capita view did yield a surprise but it wasn’t in Iowa or Navajo country, but in Georgia. Specifically, these nine counties, all of which I had never heard of and have populations less than 100,000, have IFRs above 0.1%:

    Randolph County, GA
    Terrell County, GA
    Early County, GA
    St. John the Baptist Parish, LA
    Mitchell County, GA
    Dougherty County, GA
    Turner County, GA
    Wilcox County, GA
    Clay County, GA

    Eight of the nine are Southwestern Georgia “Black Belt” counties. The Louisiana parish is in the state’s toe so its deaths are probably due to proximity to NOLA.

    So yes, there is a rural outbreak that rivals the big three urban outbreaks, but it is not in Iowa (0.003%-0.06% IFR) or the Navajo Nation (0.02% IFR), but in SW Georgia (>0.1% IFR). I didn’t know that, and now stand corrected.

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @Twinkie
    My Iowa example wasn’t intended to highlight a significant hot spot - it was rather intended as a comparison between a blue urban area (Des Moines/Polk County) with some of the red rural areas in the same state where, once the pandemic spreads, are surprisingly high in infections and deaths.

    The trends are broadly similar in several other states.
  42. @res
    It would be interesting to quantify that effect. My guess is it does not explain that much of the Red/Blue state net federal transfers differences. But it would be good to have a real estimate.

    As far as I am aware this is the best data we have on the balance of payments for states.
    https://rockinst.org/issue-areas/fiscal-analysis/balance-of-payments-portal/
    Be sure to change the graphic to per capita to make it more meaningful.

    P.S. One thing I had not realized before is how much more VA and MD take in than they pay out. I guess that is from proximity to DC.

    Yeah, it’s actually more complicated, but I was just making a quick one-liner. A fuller treatment of the subject would include:

    • The Old South red states include large tranches of underclass blacks, who soak up a lot of federal aid money. These citizens vote blue, but get outvoted by their red neighbors. But they still give their red states a blue-appearing appetite for fed funds.

    • Military spending is one of the biggest categories of fed spending. Most military bases are in red states. One can argue that “spending is spending”, and that’s true to a certain extent, but I think a distinction can also be drawn between disbursements directly to citizens (welfare, soc. sec.) vs. massive orders of jet fuel and tank parts that just happen to be booked in red states and do not directly enter citizens’ pockets.

    • The pay-soc-sec-tax-urban/collect-soc-sec-benefits-rural cycle, already mentioned.

    • What I think the biggest driver of the blue-net-pay-red-net-take meme is the accounting artifact of how corporate organizations report revenues and pay taxes. Example: Colgate-Palmolive is headquartered in New York City, yet it sells toothpaste and other stuff in every state of the union. How many of the products that it sells are made in NYC? Probably none. Yet every time it cuts a check for federal taxes, that check comes from NYC and goes to the local IRS office where it is recorded as “Federal Taxes from New York”. But in reality, very little of the production (or even consumption) happened in New York, yet the entire tax payment is credited there. So if Colgate-Palmolive paid $100m in fed taxes “in NY”, probably $99m of that activity actually happened elsewhere. Multiply that by all corporate headquarters gravitating to cities bluer than where their actual production happens, and you have the mass illusion of blue productivity.

    Anyhow, there’s probably even more to it, but I didn’t intend to get this deep into it when I made the original remark.

    P.S. Thanks for the interesting map link. Yeah, proximity to DC apparently has something to do with Federal largesse. Note that top Federal trough slurpers MD is a deep blue state, while VA is a bluing shade of purple.

    • Replies: @anon
    Yeah, proximity to DC apparently has something to do with Federal largesse. Note that top Federal trough slurpers MD is a deep blue state, while VA is a bluing shade of purple.

    Again, break that down to the county level and the effects of proximity to the Imperial City are even more obvious. Northern Virginia counties made a huge difference in the last 2 to 4 elections on a statewide basis. NoVa is the reason VA is trending "purple to blue". The Imperial Capitol attracts grifters, hangers -on and a whole lot of immivaders.
    , @prime noticer
    have had similar thoughts for decades.

    we found out how productive New York City is this year - that is to say, NYC produces nothing of value, and is totally dependent on the rest of the country for everything.

    these days it's just a finance money extraction center and nothing else. it's one of the least productive places in the country. and is now in deep debt. demographically it's also turned into a third world country.

    it is amusing to watch the governor of the "Empire State", supposedly the most productive state that keeps the rest of us backwards mouthbreathers alive, begging for supplies, medicine, food, and now begging for our tax dollars as a state budget bailout.

    the governor is now flailing around saying the virus is not just a Democrat state thing, when we can all clearly see that yes it is.

  43. @vok3
    Almost Missouri -

    "Have there been any serious COVID outbreaks in rural areas? "

    Depends on what you mean by serious. Where I'm at, a Trump-voting agricultural area where the county seat is a city of ~50K, we had our first case mid-March, passed 400 cases a week or so back, with 20 deaths so far. The graph is a perfect exponential. Just need to see how long it tracks that.

    I'm convinced that rural areas haven't seen major problems yet just because it spreads slower there, not because it spreads slow enough for the people there to be safe. Things will become clearer in 2-3 months, I think. I'll be perfectly willing to admit error if it fizzles. In the meantime, I'm working on the garden.

    “city of ~50K, … 20 deaths so far”

    Hmmm … IFR = 0.04%.

    Meh. Lemme know when it crosses the flu-season-bogie of 0.1%. If it’s exponential, that shouldn’t be long.

    In the meantime, SW Georgia has almost an order of magnitude lead on you. [See my reply to Twinkie, above.]

  44. @vok3
    AE - mocking? Well, maybe. Yes, now I think about it, people living paycheck to paycheck, running everything on credit cards, finding home schooling their own freaking children to be an intolerable burden, completely unable to stick a "GONE FISHING" sign on the front door for a couple months, and absolutely willing to tempt others into danger as compensation for their own utter inability to prepare for bad times, are definitely a topic I find worthy of mockery. And it's not weird at all.

    I realize the entire country has been operating like this for living memory. That's a reason. It's not an excuse. I heard enough from the old folks about the 1930s to know what I ought to be doing, even when I wasn't doing it. When I was a part-time retail shelf stocker in rural nowhere, or when I was deep in Blue America living the rootless urbanite life, no matter what, I had a pantry with several months' worth of canned goods and a certain amount of cash and other necessities. That took me just a couple pay periods to set up, each time. I've wasted a crapload of money on stupid stuff, but I always made sure the basics were taken care of first. Anybody paying for a smartphone and a cable subscription has absolutely zero grounds to claim they can't do the same.

    This disease has not only revealed the fecklessness and incompetence of the American government. It has also revealed the fecklessness, incompetence, and self-indulgence of the American people, across the political spectrum.

    When I was, I think, 17 or 18, I went to a young writers' summer camp type thing. I remember the guys in my suite talking amazedly about something one of the girls was telling them about. She got tons of credit card offers, and she used them, and she'd buy herself all sorts of hugely expensive things with them - stereos, TVs, huge quantites of music, vacation trips, whatever. She'd pair them off: put an expense on one credit card, then pay it off with a second card next month, then the following month pay the second card off with the first, repeat forever. "And whenever I want something new, I just get another pair of credit cards!" The guys in my suite knew there had to be a catch somewhere but they couldn't figure out what.

    All America has been living like that girl. It's goddamned stupid and it's high time it stopped.

    Mockery? Yes, absolutely. If they're in a bad spot, it is their own damn fault.

    For some crazy reason I expected the right wing to be better prepared for a situation of this sort. There was even a song about it - "A Country Boy Can Survive." Well, for most of these jokers, THAT was a goddamned lie.

    Do I sound annoyed? I guess I am.

    I didn’t own a credit card until last year. Back when my life was a complete trainwreck, this probably saved things from getting far worse than they needed to be.

    >Mockery? Yes, absolutely. If they’re in a bad spot, it is their own damn fault.

    Learning personal responsibility on your own after a lifetime of bad habits, vice, and learned helplessness is not impossible to do as an adult, so I do agree with you to a point. But I can vouch for the fact that it is significantly more difficult than it would be if you had the right environment as a child or an adolescent. And most people are, by definition, average with average willpower and reflect the societal average around them. Mocking them might be cathartic, but it is seldom productive.

    A fish rots from the head. The quickest way to see broader societal changes is the behavior of the elites and what they encourage from society: and this needs to be done with actions, not words.

    • Agree: iffen
  45. @Audacious Epigone
    It's weird to mock them for needing the money. Reds do need it more than blues because blues are more likely to be in government, including education--where this whole thing has been a boon, with less working and a stimulus on top of uninterrupted paychecks--living primarily off welfare, or college-aged kids who are able to live at home.

    Blue collar workers seldom have occupations that allow them the option of working from home.

    TBH, this whole experience has led me to reflect on what really keeps a society functioning and who is really deeply necessary. It isn’t people like me. It is people who usually don’t have the luxury of staying home all day.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
  46. @SFG
    Oh yeah. Further spread of the virus will kill a disproportionate amount of legacy Americans--it targets the old after all.

    I always found it bizarre that Hannity and the rest of the FOX ditto-heads (minus Tucker Carlson) parroted the initial White House line that the pandemic was no big deal. Their viewers were the ones most at risk of dying.

    • Replies: @A123

    I always found it bizarre that Hannity and the rest of the FOX ditto-heads (minus Tucker Carlson) parroted the initial White House line that the pandemic was no big deal. Their viewers were the ones most at risk of dying.
     
    The #1 cause of death is the NY subway system. I do not imagine that Hannity is that popular on the MTA.

    Mass Transit Kills 😷
  47. @Almost Missouri
    Thanks. I thought I was going to have to stand corrected here, so I did what I should have done before posting my original comment: looked for a county-level per capita virus map. I did eventually find one, but it was only per capita for cases, which statistic is strongly artifacted from testing. What I really wanted was a COVID death per capita map. Yes, COVID death coding has its own problems, but these are probably less severe than the testing skew. Anyhow, long story short, couldn't find any, so finally downloaded county-level death and pop data from https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/ and rolled my own.

    What did it show?

    Out of 3000-odd US counties, most have yet to record a single COVID death. All of the counties at zero COVID deaths are rural (average pop ~20,000).

    Unsurprisingly, the NYC cluster really is the national hotspot. The NYC-metro counties are all at IFR of 0.1% or above. (Bronx County highest at about 0.25%.) How much of this is aggressive coding? Who knows? However much, there are a lot of deaths in the NYC area. Indeed the NYC-metro counties by themselves account for nearly half of all the US COVID deaths.

    The secondary hotspots are New Orleans and Wayne County MI, aka Detroit, at about 0.1% IFR. So no surprise there.

    The per capita view did yield a surprise but it wasn't in Iowa or Navajo country, but in Georgia. Specifically, these nine counties, all of which I had never heard of and have populations less than 100,000, have IFRs above 0.1%:

    Randolph County, GA
    Terrell County, GA
    Early County, GA
    St. John the Baptist Parish, LA
    Mitchell County, GA
    Dougherty County, GA
    Turner County, GA
    Wilcox County, GA
    Clay County, GA

    Eight of the nine are Southwestern Georgia "Black Belt" counties. The Louisiana parish is in the state's toe so its deaths are probably due to proximity to NOLA.

    So yes, there is a rural outbreak that rivals the big three urban outbreaks, but it is not in Iowa (0.003%-0.06% IFR) or the Navajo Nation (0.02% IFR), but in SW Georgia (>0.1% IFR). I didn't know that, and now stand corrected.

    My Iowa example wasn’t intended to highlight a significant hot spot – it was rather intended as a comparison between a blue urban area (Des Moines/Polk County) with some of the red rural areas in the same state where, once the pandemic spreads, are surprisingly high in infections and deaths.

    The trends are broadly similar in several other states.

  48. @A123
    SJW Globalists are science deniers. These are the loonies that accept fabricated numbers from the Global Cooling / Warming / Change scam.

    Globalists want to crush all but the largest multinational firms. Is it anyone surprised that the submissive science deniers are blindly obeying their Globalist masters and accept the "must close" WUHAN-19 scam?

    PEACE 😷

    Is it anyone surprised that the submissive science deniers are blindly obeying their Globalist masters and accept the “must close” WUHAN-19 scam?

    The fault lines revealed by the COVID-19 thing aren’t as clear-cut as that. It seems to be as much a psychological divide as an ideological one. Some people are just inclined to believe in scientific-sounding supposed catastrophes. Others are just psychologically inclined to scepticism. There are Corona Panickers across the political/ideological spectrum.

    Your claim doesn’t really make sense. The Corona Panic is not in the interests of the globalists. Quite the opposite. It’s very much in the interests of the globalists to get the lockdowns lifted and the economy up and running again.

    • Replies: @A123

    The Corona Panic is not in the interests of the globalists. Quite the opposite. It’s very much in the interests of the globalists to get the lockdowns lifted and the economy up and running again.
     
    Globalist multinationals are able to stay open (think Walmart). Small businesses are closed will be forced into bankruptcy. The lockdown itself is very much in favor of Wall Street SJW Globalists and against Main Street Citizens. Competition is being eradicated.

    Ultimately, it is short sighted and will backfire. In the long run, national security & national resource independence will lead to deglobalization.

    PEACE 😷
    , @Brian Reilly
    dfor, You write about the globalist's interest being served best by reopening. Yes but only on terms defined by the globalists which further their agenda. Their agenda is primarily economic, but cannot move forward fast or far enough without the social and political control they now seem to have a call on. Remember that they (the globalists) have a real and achievable plan to take ownership and direction of every significant asset class. They have been working diligently and successfully to increase dependency on "government", and are using the huge multinationals to actually deliver the services. No mom and pops need apply.

    This is an all-in game. If the globalists lose control of too many of the various situations in place that matter, they will lose their chance to run it all right now. They are desperate to keep the global machine running, but only under their specific direction. Turn the toilet paper off, now turn it back on. Turn the beef off, turn it back on. Open your shop, now close it again. Make people cede responsibility to the Stare and their rigged "market". It is all part of a planned implementation, and will culminate in the end of our current monetary/finance system and the imposition of the globalist owned and run New system.

    All in. If they lose, if too many of the wrong people (deploreables in the US, yellow vests in France, etc,) get wise and resist or actually shut the system down, the globalists are revealed as paper tigers or they have to get the cops to really start killing at scale. If they are revealed, look for a bloodbath. Gates, Bezos, Trump, Pelosi, Macron, CCP leaders, AMLO, the Pope... and another ten thousand or so. More than a couple million deplorables and collaterals as well.

    So think about that when you speculate about the interest of the globalist crew. Remember that the minions of the globalists are many, and deeply entrenched.
    , @Audacious Epigone
    Even that's not clear cut. Eventually it will be in their interests to do so, but not until their pesky competitors are taken out. Right now, everyone is still under water. The globalists have big lungs and huge oxygen tanks so they can stay under for a long time. The small operations have drowned and the faces of the more robust mid-sized and private operations are turning blue. Coming up for air now will still save a lot of them, so it's imperative to keep them under water for another month or two.
  49. @vok3
    "Blame it on Democrats" ignores the more fundamental point. You can re-open, but that won't get you anywhere, because the general public is going to be extremely cautious for a while. We've surpassed deaths from a bad flu YEAR in just six weeks, with only a fraction of the country exposed. "Resolved cases" in all countries with a major outbreak has been converging toward 20% dead - this neglects asymptomatic and minor/never-tested cases, of course, but that still leaves a very noticeable fraction. We're guaranteed at this point to hit 100K deaths in the USA, with 200K fairly probable and 2M still very much in play. Until there's some indication this thing is getting under control and/or has reliable treatment available, people will continue to be cautious.

    Sailer has a story up about an axe-throwing place that reopened and got 2 customers for the whole weekend.

    You can reopen the beaches and parks (and should) but that won't fix the "but muh conomy" problem. Beaches and parks don't drive the velocity of money up noticeably. Having somebody else prepare your food for you is a huge luxury. Running everything on debt works as long as you never stop running. Theme parks and cruise ships are pure disposable income. "Normal" life involves a huge amount of luxuries that, as a matter of plain fact, people don't NEED to get by. The muhconomy is going to stay devastated until this gets taken into account.

    Adjustments will have to be made and the sooner they get made the better. To borrow a line from H. Beam Piper, it is easier to banish a habit of thought than a piece of knowledge.

    “Normal” life involves a huge amount of luxuries that, as a matter of plain fact, people don’t NEED to get by.

    That’s true. But life without those unnecessary luxuries would be very grey and miserable. Having the bare necessities means having a pretty awful life.

    Unnecessary luxuries are a good thing because they’re unnecessary. They’re the things that make life worth living.

    Taking away the luxuries means taking the fun and the joy out of life. And taking the fun and the joy out of life is exactly what a lot of people seem to want. Welcome to the New Puritanism. It’s just as miserable as the Old Puritanism.

  50. A123 says:
    @dfordoom

    Is it anyone surprised that the submissive science deniers are blindly obeying their Globalist masters and accept the “must close” WUHAN-19 scam?
     
    The fault lines revealed by the COVID-19 thing aren't as clear-cut as that. It seems to be as much a psychological divide as an ideological one. Some people are just inclined to believe in scientific-sounding supposed catastrophes. Others are just psychologically inclined to scepticism. There are Corona Panickers across the political/ideological spectrum.

    Your claim doesn't really make sense. The Corona Panic is not in the interests of the globalists. Quite the opposite. It's very much in the interests of the globalists to get the lockdowns lifted and the economy up and running again.

    The Corona Panic is not in the interests of the globalists. Quite the opposite. It’s very much in the interests of the globalists to get the lockdowns lifted and the economy up and running again.

    Globalist multinationals are able to stay open (think Walmart). Small businesses are closed will be forced into bankruptcy. The lockdown itself is very much in favor of Wall Street SJW Globalists and against Main Street Citizens. Competition is being eradicated.

    Ultimately, it is short sighted and will backfire. In the long run, national security & national resource independence will lead to deglobalization.

    PEACE 😷

  51. A123 says:
    @nebulafox
    I always found it bizarre that Hannity and the rest of the FOX ditto-heads (minus Tucker Carlson) parroted the initial White House line that the pandemic was no big deal. Their viewers were the ones most at risk of dying.

    I always found it bizarre that Hannity and the rest of the FOX ditto-heads (minus Tucker Carlson) parroted the initial White House line that the pandemic was no big deal. Their viewers were the ones most at risk of dying.

    The #1 cause of death is the NY subway system. I do not imagine that Hannity is that popular on the MTA.

    Mass Transit Kills 😷

  52. @dfordoom

    Is it anyone surprised that the submissive science deniers are blindly obeying their Globalist masters and accept the “must close” WUHAN-19 scam?
     
    The fault lines revealed by the COVID-19 thing aren't as clear-cut as that. It seems to be as much a psychological divide as an ideological one. Some people are just inclined to believe in scientific-sounding supposed catastrophes. Others are just psychologically inclined to scepticism. There are Corona Panickers across the political/ideological spectrum.

    Your claim doesn't really make sense. The Corona Panic is not in the interests of the globalists. Quite the opposite. It's very much in the interests of the globalists to get the lockdowns lifted and the economy up and running again.

    dfor, You write about the globalist’s interest being served best by reopening. Yes but only on terms defined by the globalists which further their agenda. Their agenda is primarily economic, but cannot move forward fast or far enough without the social and political control they now seem to have a call on. Remember that they (the globalists) have a real and achievable plan to take ownership and direction of every significant asset class. They have been working diligently and successfully to increase dependency on “government”, and are using the huge multinationals to actually deliver the services. No mom and pops need apply.

    This is an all-in game. If the globalists lose control of too many of the various situations in place that matter, they will lose their chance to run it all right now. They are desperate to keep the global machine running, but only under their specific direction. Turn the toilet paper off, now turn it back on. Turn the beef off, turn it back on. Open your shop, now close it again. Make people cede responsibility to the Stare and their rigged “market”. It is all part of a planned implementation, and will culminate in the end of our current monetary/finance system and the imposition of the globalist owned and run New system.

    All in. If they lose, if too many of the wrong people (deploreables in the US, yellow vests in France, etc,) get wise and resist or actually shut the system down, the globalists are revealed as paper tigers or they have to get the cops to really start killing at scale. If they are revealed, look for a bloodbath. Gates, Bezos, Trump, Pelosi, Macron, CCP leaders, AMLO, the Pope… and another ten thousand or so. More than a couple million deplorables and collaterals as well.

    So think about that when you speculate about the interest of the globalist crew. Remember that the minions of the globalists are many, and deeply entrenched.

    • Replies: @dfordoom

    It is all part of a planned implementation
     
    I'm not convinced that it's quite such an organised conspiracy.

    Globalists do stuff that is in their own interests. You don't need a conspiracy theory to explain it.

    And globalisation hasn't been all bad. Economically it's efficient. Autarky is inefficient. Scrap globalisation completely and you'll be looking at lower living standards. You'l be looking at a lot of economic pain.

    Globalisation is like capitalism. It's both good and bad. Like capitalism it needs to be brought under control.
  53. @Brian Reilly
    dfor, You write about the globalist's interest being served best by reopening. Yes but only on terms defined by the globalists which further their agenda. Their agenda is primarily economic, but cannot move forward fast or far enough without the social and political control they now seem to have a call on. Remember that they (the globalists) have a real and achievable plan to take ownership and direction of every significant asset class. They have been working diligently and successfully to increase dependency on "government", and are using the huge multinationals to actually deliver the services. No mom and pops need apply.

    This is an all-in game. If the globalists lose control of too many of the various situations in place that matter, they will lose their chance to run it all right now. They are desperate to keep the global machine running, but only under their specific direction. Turn the toilet paper off, now turn it back on. Turn the beef off, turn it back on. Open your shop, now close it again. Make people cede responsibility to the Stare and their rigged "market". It is all part of a planned implementation, and will culminate in the end of our current monetary/finance system and the imposition of the globalist owned and run New system.

    All in. If they lose, if too many of the wrong people (deploreables in the US, yellow vests in France, etc,) get wise and resist or actually shut the system down, the globalists are revealed as paper tigers or they have to get the cops to really start killing at scale. If they are revealed, look for a bloodbath. Gates, Bezos, Trump, Pelosi, Macron, CCP leaders, AMLO, the Pope... and another ten thousand or so. More than a couple million deplorables and collaterals as well.

    So think about that when you speculate about the interest of the globalist crew. Remember that the minions of the globalists are many, and deeply entrenched.

    It is all part of a planned implementation

    I’m not convinced that it’s quite such an organised conspiracy.

    Globalists do stuff that is in their own interests. You don’t need a conspiracy theory to explain it.

    And globalisation hasn’t been all bad. Economically it’s efficient. Autarky is inefficient. Scrap globalisation completely and you’ll be looking at lower living standards. You’l be looking at a lot of economic pain.

    Globalisation is like capitalism. It’s both good and bad. Like capitalism it needs to be brought under control.

  54. @Audacious Epigone
    We did some ruminating on that a couple of years ago.

    What lesson? In your meditations, people you cite are sure that we are “following” trajectory of ancient Rome, but are unsure about minor details whether “we are” in time of Gracchus, Sulla, Caesar, Caligula or Diocletian.

    Assuming, we are “destined” to repeat fate of Roman Empire, and not Assyrian, Mongol , Zulu or any other numerous empires of history.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_empires

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    Could be those too, sure. We know the most by far about Rome though.
    , @Lars Porsena
    At the moment it's looking like the Xhosa.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nongqawuse
  55. anon[250] • Disclaimer says:
    @Almost Missouri
    Yeah, it's actually more complicated, but I was just making a quick one-liner. A fuller treatment of the subject would include:

    • The Old South red states include large tranches of underclass blacks, who soak up a lot of federal aid money. These citizens vote blue, but get outvoted by their red neighbors. But they still give their red states a blue-appearing appetite for fed funds.

    • Military spending is one of the biggest categories of fed spending. Most military bases are in red states. One can argue that "spending is spending", and that's true to a certain extent, but I think a distinction can also be drawn between disbursements directly to citizens (welfare, soc. sec.) vs. massive orders of jet fuel and tank parts that just happen to be booked in red states and do not directly enter citizens' pockets.

    • The pay-soc-sec-tax-urban/collect-soc-sec-benefits-rural cycle, already mentioned.

    • What I think the biggest driver of the blue-net-pay-red-net-take meme is the accounting artifact of how corporate organizations report revenues and pay taxes. Example: Colgate-Palmolive is headquartered in New York City, yet it sells toothpaste and other stuff in every state of the union. How many of the products that it sells are made in NYC? Probably none. Yet every time it cuts a check for federal taxes, that check comes from NYC and goes to the local IRS office where it is recorded as "Federal Taxes from New York". But in reality, very little of the production (or even consumption) happened in New York, yet the entire tax payment is credited there. So if Colgate-Palmolive paid $100m in fed taxes "in NY", probably $99m of that activity actually happened elsewhere. Multiply that by all corporate headquarters gravitating to cities bluer than where their actual production happens, and you have the mass illusion of blue productivity.

    Anyhow, there's probably even more to it, but I didn't intend to get this deep into it when I made the original remark.

    P.S. Thanks for the interesting map link. Yeah, proximity to DC apparently has something to do with Federal largesse. Note that top Federal trough slurpers MD is a deep blue state, while VA is a bluing shade of purple.

    Yeah, proximity to DC apparently has something to do with Federal largesse. Note that top Federal trough slurpers MD is a deep blue state, while VA is a bluing shade of purple.

    Again, break that down to the county level and the effects of proximity to the Imperial City are even more obvious. Northern Virginia counties made a huge difference in the last 2 to 4 elections on a statewide basis. NoVa is the reason VA is trending “purple to blue”. The Imperial Capitol attracts grifters, hangers -on and a whole lot of immivaders.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    Again, break that down to the county level and the effects of proximity to the Imperial City are even more obvious. Northern Virginia counties made a huge difference in the last 2 to 4 elections on a statewide basis. NoVa is the reason VA is trending “purple to blue”. The Imperial Capitol attracts grifters, hangers -on and a whole lot of immivaders.
     
    This is a shallow conventional wisdom on the right that is at odds with some inconvenient facts. For example:

    1. Northern Virginia benefits greatly from federal contracting rather than entitlements, yes. But so does the Hampton Roads area on the southeastern part of the state due to the massive military and shipbuilding and maintenance infrastructure there. The federal presence in that region is considerably older and more pervasive. What has changed over the past decade is that federal dollars are increasingly spent on services, with information technology being the most obvious sector, rather than on (military) hardware in the traditional sense.

    2. Although immigration has changed the landscape of Northern Virginia dramatically, most of the immigrants cannot vote yet. The demographic aspect of the leftward political shift of the once reliably Republican Virginia exurbs of DC is not due to foreign immigrants, but internal migration from northern states, accompanied by exodus of native Virginians from the region to other southern states (rather than to more rural Virginia counties).

    3. Although state-wide elections are highly affected by the demographic growth of Northern Virginia, that does not explain why the Democrats took control of the VA Senate and the House of Delegates in the last election - those were local elections. For that, we need to examine other causes, namely, court-mandated restricting, polarization of urban vs. rural (white) voters, and collapse of the RPV (the Republican Party of VA) from the infighting between economic conservatives and social conservatives (which has now morphed into conservatives vs. Trumpian populists).

    4. The increasing rural vs. urban (and suburban) white political divide has hit Virginia hard. As I mentioned before, the Republican backstop to large Democratic votes in the DC suburbs had been the suburban-exurban area around Richmond. However, the GOP has all but collapsed in the suburbs and exurbs populated by educated, upper middle class voters. GOP in Virginia is increasingly the party of the disaffected, less educated rural voters. In a state that is increasingly becoming more suburbanized and where the rural population is declining rapidly, the political realignment - of populism vs. technocratism - is clear for all to see, and it’s also obvious who has the upper hand.

  56. @Almost Missouri
    Yeah, it's actually more complicated, but I was just making a quick one-liner. A fuller treatment of the subject would include:

    • The Old South red states include large tranches of underclass blacks, who soak up a lot of federal aid money. These citizens vote blue, but get outvoted by their red neighbors. But they still give their red states a blue-appearing appetite for fed funds.

    • Military spending is one of the biggest categories of fed spending. Most military bases are in red states. One can argue that "spending is spending", and that's true to a certain extent, but I think a distinction can also be drawn between disbursements directly to citizens (welfare, soc. sec.) vs. massive orders of jet fuel and tank parts that just happen to be booked in red states and do not directly enter citizens' pockets.

    • The pay-soc-sec-tax-urban/collect-soc-sec-benefits-rural cycle, already mentioned.

    • What I think the biggest driver of the blue-net-pay-red-net-take meme is the accounting artifact of how corporate organizations report revenues and pay taxes. Example: Colgate-Palmolive is headquartered in New York City, yet it sells toothpaste and other stuff in every state of the union. How many of the products that it sells are made in NYC? Probably none. Yet every time it cuts a check for federal taxes, that check comes from NYC and goes to the local IRS office where it is recorded as "Federal Taxes from New York". But in reality, very little of the production (or even consumption) happened in New York, yet the entire tax payment is credited there. So if Colgate-Palmolive paid $100m in fed taxes "in NY", probably $99m of that activity actually happened elsewhere. Multiply that by all corporate headquarters gravitating to cities bluer than where their actual production happens, and you have the mass illusion of blue productivity.

    Anyhow, there's probably even more to it, but I didn't intend to get this deep into it when I made the original remark.

    P.S. Thanks for the interesting map link. Yeah, proximity to DC apparently has something to do with Federal largesse. Note that top Federal trough slurpers MD is a deep blue state, while VA is a bluing shade of purple.

    have had similar thoughts for decades.

    we found out how productive New York City is this year – that is to say, NYC produces nothing of value, and is totally dependent on the rest of the country for everything.

    these days it’s just a finance money extraction center and nothing else. it’s one of the least productive places in the country. and is now in deep debt. demographically it’s also turned into a third world country.

    it is amusing to watch the governor of the “Empire State”, supposedly the most productive state that keeps the rest of us backwards mouthbreathers alive, begging for supplies, medicine, food, and now begging for our tax dollars as a state budget bailout.

    the governor is now flailing around saying the virus is not just a Democrat state thing, when we can all clearly see that yes it is.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri

    "we found out how productive New York City is this year – that is to say, NYC produces nothing of value, and is totally dependent on the rest of the country for everything."
     
    Well put. Thanks. I'm gonna start annoying libs with that point.

    "these days it’s just a finance money extraction center and nothing else."
     
    It does do one other thing: it is the mass media brainwashing center. It pumps propaganda poison out through its million prolefeed tentacles into the eyes and ears of the nation and the world.

    So yes, there are two faces to the New York vampire squid: the one that sucks value out, the other that squirts soul-poison in.


    "the governor is now flailing around saying the virus is not just a Democrat state thing"
     
    He is actually partly correct, but not in a way that does him any credit. Republican Georgia and Louisiana and swing state Michigan all have outbreaks, but the outbreaks are almost exclusively in Democrat counties, even in Republican states.

    In Michigan and New York, for example, nine tenths of the counties (by "coincidence" all the red ones) have no significant outbreaks, yet they are being held hostage in quarantine to the fortunes of the half dozen filthy, crowded, incompetent counties (by "coincidence" all blue), which are unlikely ever to be healthy again. For some "mysterious" reason, the blue governors insist on this terribly inequitable policy.

  57. @prime noticer
    have had similar thoughts for decades.

    we found out how productive New York City is this year - that is to say, NYC produces nothing of value, and is totally dependent on the rest of the country for everything.

    these days it's just a finance money extraction center and nothing else. it's one of the least productive places in the country. and is now in deep debt. demographically it's also turned into a third world country.

    it is amusing to watch the governor of the "Empire State", supposedly the most productive state that keeps the rest of us backwards mouthbreathers alive, begging for supplies, medicine, food, and now begging for our tax dollars as a state budget bailout.

    the governor is now flailing around saying the virus is not just a Democrat state thing, when we can all clearly see that yes it is.

    “we found out how productive New York City is this year – that is to say, NYC produces nothing of value, and is totally dependent on the rest of the country for everything.”

    Well put. Thanks. I’m gonna start annoying libs with that point.

    “these days it’s just a finance money extraction center and nothing else.”

    It does do one other thing: it is the mass media brainwashing center. It pumps propaganda poison out through its million prolefeed tentacles into the eyes and ears of the nation and the world.

    So yes, there are two faces to the New York vampire squid: the one that sucks value out, the other that squirts soul-poison in.

    “the governor is now flailing around saying the virus is not just a Democrat state thing”

    He is actually partly correct, but not in a way that does him any credit. Republican Georgia and Louisiana and swing state Michigan all have outbreaks, but the outbreaks are almost exclusively in Democrat counties, even in Republican states.

    In Michigan and New York, for example, nine tenths of the counties (by “coincidence” all the red ones) have no significant outbreaks, yet they are being held hostage in quarantine to the fortunes of the half dozen filthy, crowded, incompetent counties (by “coincidence” all blue), which are unlikely ever to be healthy again. For some “mysterious” reason, the blue governors insist on this terribly inequitable policy.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    the outbreaks are almost exclusively in Democrat counties, even in Republican states.
     
    I already demonstrated that this is not completely true in the case of Iowa (and several other states). Once the pandemic reaches the rural areas, some of them have higher infections and deaths per capita than blue-run cities.
  58. @anon
    Yeah, proximity to DC apparently has something to do with Federal largesse. Note that top Federal trough slurpers MD is a deep blue state, while VA is a bluing shade of purple.

    Again, break that down to the county level and the effects of proximity to the Imperial City are even more obvious. Northern Virginia counties made a huge difference in the last 2 to 4 elections on a statewide basis. NoVa is the reason VA is trending "purple to blue". The Imperial Capitol attracts grifters, hangers -on and a whole lot of immivaders.

    Again, break that down to the county level and the effects of proximity to the Imperial City are even more obvious. Northern Virginia counties made a huge difference in the last 2 to 4 elections on a statewide basis. NoVa is the reason VA is trending “purple to blue”. The Imperial Capitol attracts grifters, hangers -on and a whole lot of immivaders.

    This is a shallow conventional wisdom on the right that is at odds with some inconvenient facts. For example:

    1. Northern Virginia benefits greatly from federal contracting rather than entitlements, yes. But so does the Hampton Roads area on the southeastern part of the state due to the massive military and shipbuilding and maintenance infrastructure there. The federal presence in that region is considerably older and more pervasive. What has changed over the past decade is that federal dollars are increasingly spent on services, with information technology being the most obvious sector, rather than on (military) hardware in the traditional sense.

    2. Although immigration has changed the landscape of Northern Virginia dramatically, most of the immigrants cannot vote yet. The demographic aspect of the leftward political shift of the once reliably Republican Virginia exurbs of DC is not due to foreign immigrants, but internal migration from northern states, accompanied by exodus of native Virginians from the region to other southern states (rather than to more rural Virginia counties).

    3. Although state-wide elections are highly affected by the demographic growth of Northern Virginia, that does not explain why the Democrats took control of the VA Senate and the House of Delegates in the last election – those were local elections. For that, we need to examine other causes, namely, court-mandated restricting, polarization of urban vs. rural (white) voters, and collapse of the RPV (the Republican Party of VA) from the infighting between economic conservatives and social conservatives (which has now morphed into conservatives vs. Trumpian populists).

    4. The increasing rural vs. urban (and suburban) white political divide has hit Virginia hard. As I mentioned before, the Republican backstop to large Democratic votes in the DC suburbs had been the suburban-exurban area around Richmond. However, the GOP has all but collapsed in the suburbs and exurbs populated by educated, upper middle class voters. GOP in Virginia is increasingly the party of the disaffected, less educated rural voters. In a state that is increasingly becoming more suburbanized and where the rural population is declining rapidly, the political realignment – of populism vs. technocratism – is clear for all to see, and it’s also obvious who has the upper hand.

    • Replies: @216
    A bit of a tangent, but here I go anyways

    The survival of the Right in this country is dependent on its revival as a scaled-up Singaporean PAP in urban areas.

    Rural libertarianism is always co-opted by the urbane lolbertarians, bereft of the former's cultural conservatism. Such that the authoritarian glove is the only option left. Our people have too much inertia in the older generations to get it.

    Long ago I said that in certain perma-Bluestan, the GOP should just dissolve and let a DSA party emerge to the left of the Democrats.

    The problem with Belarus or Bust, is that you end up living in Belarus if you win.
  59. @Almost Missouri

    "we found out how productive New York City is this year – that is to say, NYC produces nothing of value, and is totally dependent on the rest of the country for everything."
     
    Well put. Thanks. I'm gonna start annoying libs with that point.

    "these days it’s just a finance money extraction center and nothing else."
     
    It does do one other thing: it is the mass media brainwashing center. It pumps propaganda poison out through its million prolefeed tentacles into the eyes and ears of the nation and the world.

    So yes, there are two faces to the New York vampire squid: the one that sucks value out, the other that squirts soul-poison in.


    "the governor is now flailing around saying the virus is not just a Democrat state thing"
     
    He is actually partly correct, but not in a way that does him any credit. Republican Georgia and Louisiana and swing state Michigan all have outbreaks, but the outbreaks are almost exclusively in Democrat counties, even in Republican states.

    In Michigan and New York, for example, nine tenths of the counties (by "coincidence" all the red ones) have no significant outbreaks, yet they are being held hostage in quarantine to the fortunes of the half dozen filthy, crowded, incompetent counties (by "coincidence" all blue), which are unlikely ever to be healthy again. For some "mysterious" reason, the blue governors insist on this terribly inequitable policy.

    the outbreaks are almost exclusively in Democrat counties, even in Republican states.

    I already demonstrated that this is not completely true in the case of Iowa (and several other states). Once the pandemic reaches the rural areas, some of them have higher infections and deaths per capita than blue-run cities.

    • Troll: A123
    • Replies: @A123
    What is the difference between:

    -- AM -- almost exclusively
    -- Tw -- not completely

    It sounds like you are so conceding the point that "Blue" citizens are taking the brunt of the WUHAN-19 virus.

    Yes. "Red" citizens have also been hit. However, these are a substantial minority of the case load.

    Quibbling over the precise split (90/10, 88/12, 86/14...) does not alter the core thrust of AM's narrative.

    PEACE 😷
    , @Almost Missouri
    As discussed, the red "outbreaks" are well below the seriousness of the blue outbreaks.
  60. A123 says:
    @Twinkie

    the outbreaks are almost exclusively in Democrat counties, even in Republican states.
     
    I already demonstrated that this is not completely true in the case of Iowa (and several other states). Once the pandemic reaches the rural areas, some of them have higher infections and deaths per capita than blue-run cities.

    What is the difference between:

    — AM — almost exclusively
    — Tw — not completely

    It sounds like you are so conceding the point that “Blue” citizens are taking the brunt of the WUHAN-19 virus.

    Yes. “Red” citizens have also been hit. However, these are a substantial minority of the case load.

    Quibbling over the precise split (90/10, 88/12, 86/14…) does not alter the core thrust of AM’s narrative.

    PEACE 😷

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    It sounds like you are so conceding the point that “Blue” citizens are taking the brunt of the WUHAN-19 virus.
     
    Cities are always going to suffer first since they are transport hubs and have higher density. But, imagine if there weren’t a lockdown. Once the pandemic reached the rural areas, poor demographic factors and lack of infrastructure issues take a toll. What some of you seem not to understand is that the overall lower rates of infection and deaths in rural areas masks large disparities within those rural areas, some of which is demographic in nature and some of which is luck (or “accessibility” to the virus). We are only a few weeks into this pandemic - the pattern is still in flux.
  61. @Twinkie

    the outbreaks are almost exclusively in Democrat counties, even in Republican states.
     
    I already demonstrated that this is not completely true in the case of Iowa (and several other states). Once the pandemic reaches the rural areas, some of them have higher infections and deaths per capita than blue-run cities.

    As discussed, the red “outbreaks” are well below the seriousness of the blue outbreaks.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    As discussed, the red “outbreaks” are well below the seriousness of the blue outbreaks.
     
    The reason I keep bringing up my Iowa example is to compare apples to apples.
  62. @A123
    What is the difference between:

    -- AM -- almost exclusively
    -- Tw -- not completely

    It sounds like you are so conceding the point that "Blue" citizens are taking the brunt of the WUHAN-19 virus.

    Yes. "Red" citizens have also been hit. However, these are a substantial minority of the case load.

    Quibbling over the precise split (90/10, 88/12, 86/14...) does not alter the core thrust of AM's narrative.

    PEACE 😷

    It sounds like you are so conceding the point that “Blue” citizens are taking the brunt of the WUHAN-19 virus.

    Cities are always going to suffer first since they are transport hubs and have higher density. But, imagine if there weren’t a lockdown. Once the pandemic reached the rural areas, poor demographic factors and lack of infrastructure issues take a toll. What some of you seem not to understand is that the overall lower rates of infection and deaths in rural areas masks large disparities within those rural areas, some of which is demographic in nature and some of which is luck (or “accessibility” to the virus). We are only a few weeks into this pandemic – the pattern is still in flux.

    • Replies: @A123
    Absent supernatural abilities, there is a fatal logical flaw in your construct.

    We are only a few weeks into this pandemic – the pattern is still in flux.
     
    The future is uncertain. OK.

    Once the pandemic reached the rural areas, poor demographic factors and lack of infrastructure issues take a toll.
     
    The future is certain. Twinkie can ignore 'pattern flux' and has near perfect knowledge of statistical level, future outcomes in rural areas.
    ____

    Do you have supernatural abilites?

    If not, it is just as likely that WUHAN-19 will not aggressively spread in rural areas due to high temperatures and lack of plague bearing mass transit.

    PEACE 😷

  63. A123 says:
    @Twinkie

    It sounds like you are so conceding the point that “Blue” citizens are taking the brunt of the WUHAN-19 virus.
     
    Cities are always going to suffer first since they are transport hubs and have higher density. But, imagine if there weren’t a lockdown. Once the pandemic reached the rural areas, poor demographic factors and lack of infrastructure issues take a toll. What some of you seem not to understand is that the overall lower rates of infection and deaths in rural areas masks large disparities within those rural areas, some of which is demographic in nature and some of which is luck (or “accessibility” to the virus). We are only a few weeks into this pandemic - the pattern is still in flux.

    Absent supernatural abilities, there is a fatal logical flaw in your construct.

    We are only a few weeks into this pandemic – the pattern is still in flux.

    The future is uncertain. OK.

    Once the pandemic reached the rural areas, poor demographic factors and lack of infrastructure issues take a toll.

    The future is certain. Twinkie can ignore ‘pattern flux’ and has near perfect knowledge of statistical level, future outcomes in rural areas.
    ____

    Do you have supernatural abilites?

    If not, it is just as likely that WUHAN-19 will not aggressively spread in rural areas due to high temperatures and lack of plague bearing mass transit.

    PEACE 😷

    • Troll: Twinkie
  64. @Almost Missouri
    As discussed, the red "outbreaks" are well below the seriousness of the blue outbreaks.

    As discussed, the red “outbreaks” are well below the seriousness of the blue outbreaks.

    The reason I keep bringing up my Iowa example is to compare apples to apples.

    • Replies: @A123

    The reason I keep bringing up my Iowa example is to compare apples to apples.
     
    Whoa! Let me fix that for you:

    The reason you keep trying to use Iowa to distract from your deceptive fallacies is because you are lying Troll.

    Much better.

    PEACE 😷

  65. @Twinkie

    As discussed, the red “outbreaks” are well below the seriousness of the blue outbreaks.
     
    The reason I keep bringing up my Iowa example is to compare apples to apples.

    The reason I keep bringing up my Iowa example is to compare apples to apples.

    Whoa! Let me fix that for you:

    The reason you keep trying to use Iowa to distract from your deceptive fallacies is because you are lying Troll.

    Much better.

    PEACE 😷

    • Troll: iffen
  66. @Truth

    Democrats want to continue the shut down to cause as much damage to the economy as possible…and blame it on Trump
     
    Has the Commie in Chief come out and unilaterally stated the the Republicans are in favor of re-opening the country, and that only the democrats are in favor of the shutdown?

    Great, so do us all a favor, go to you favorite grassy knoll for lunch, and fill your mouth with as much greenery as possible so that you will stop bleating this phony left-right paradigm nonsense over the internet.

    That was the stupidest post I’ve read in a while, maybe since the last time I read one of your posts.

    • Replies: @Truth
    What's stupid about it? I'm curious.

    Has the "Conservative", "businessman." Commander in Chief said that he is in favor of all US business re-opening immediately?

    Please let me know, I do not have a television so I don't watch the nightly news.

  67. @vok3
    AE - mocking? Well, maybe. Yes, now I think about it, people living paycheck to paycheck, running everything on credit cards, finding home schooling their own freaking children to be an intolerable burden, completely unable to stick a "GONE FISHING" sign on the front door for a couple months, and absolutely willing to tempt others into danger as compensation for their own utter inability to prepare for bad times, are definitely a topic I find worthy of mockery. And it's not weird at all.

    I realize the entire country has been operating like this for living memory. That's a reason. It's not an excuse. I heard enough from the old folks about the 1930s to know what I ought to be doing, even when I wasn't doing it. When I was a part-time retail shelf stocker in rural nowhere, or when I was deep in Blue America living the rootless urbanite life, no matter what, I had a pantry with several months' worth of canned goods and a certain amount of cash and other necessities. That took me just a couple pay periods to set up, each time. I've wasted a crapload of money on stupid stuff, but I always made sure the basics were taken care of first. Anybody paying for a smartphone and a cable subscription has absolutely zero grounds to claim they can't do the same.

    This disease has not only revealed the fecklessness and incompetence of the American government. It has also revealed the fecklessness, incompetence, and self-indulgence of the American people, across the political spectrum.

    When I was, I think, 17 or 18, I went to a young writers' summer camp type thing. I remember the guys in my suite talking amazedly about something one of the girls was telling them about. She got tons of credit card offers, and she used them, and she'd buy herself all sorts of hugely expensive things with them - stereos, TVs, huge quantites of music, vacation trips, whatever. She'd pair them off: put an expense on one credit card, then pay it off with a second card next month, then the following month pay the second card off with the first, repeat forever. "And whenever I want something new, I just get another pair of credit cards!" The guys in my suite knew there had to be a catch somewhere but they couldn't figure out what.

    All America has been living like that girl. It's goddamned stupid and it's high time it stopped.

    Mockery? Yes, absolutely. If they're in a bad spot, it is their own damn fault.

    For some crazy reason I expected the right wing to be better prepared for a situation of this sort. There was even a song about it - "A Country Boy Can Survive." Well, for most of these jokers, THAT was a goddamned lie.

    Do I sound annoyed? I guess I am.

    Sagacious words regarding personal responsibility.

    In defense of Joe Sixpack, decades of easy money have made it impossible for him to save without being stolen from. When the safest investment vehicles can’t even get a 0% real return, something is very wrong.

    The two things–people working and the supply chain–are inextricably linked. Hospitals exceeding capacity was the justification given for the lock down. Americans wouldn’t accept any other reason. If exceeding capacity happens anywhere, it looks like it’s going to be the exception rather than the rule.

  68. @dfordoom

    Is it anyone surprised that the submissive science deniers are blindly obeying their Globalist masters and accept the “must close” WUHAN-19 scam?
     
    The fault lines revealed by the COVID-19 thing aren't as clear-cut as that. It seems to be as much a psychological divide as an ideological one. Some people are just inclined to believe in scientific-sounding supposed catastrophes. Others are just psychologically inclined to scepticism. There are Corona Panickers across the political/ideological spectrum.

    Your claim doesn't really make sense. The Corona Panic is not in the interests of the globalists. Quite the opposite. It's very much in the interests of the globalists to get the lockdowns lifted and the economy up and running again.

    Even that’s not clear cut. Eventually it will be in their interests to do so, but not until their pesky competitors are taken out. Right now, everyone is still under water. The globalists have big lungs and huge oxygen tanks so they can stay under for a long time. The small operations have drowned and the faces of the more robust mid-sized and private operations are turning blue. Coming up for air now will still save a lot of them, so it’s imperative to keep them under water for another month or two.

    • Replies: @dfordoom

    Even that’s not clear cut. Eventually it will be in their interests to do so, but not until their pesky competitors are taken out. Right now, everyone is still under water. The globalists have big lungs and huge oxygen tanks so they can stay under for a long time. The small operations have drowned and the faces of the more robust mid-sized and private operations are turning blue. Coming up for air now will still save a lot of them, so it’s imperative to keep them under water for another month or two.
     
    Yes, that's quite true.

    But I don't see any of this as any kind of organised globalist conspiracy. Some globalist corporations are certainly acting opportunistically and they're undoubtedly delighted to see competitors wiped out. But I don't see a conspiracy.

    What I see are a lot of politicians, media people and scientists displaying incompetence, cowardice, cynicism and sheer blind panic and as a result making very very bad decisions. And what I also see are a lot of ordinary people, especially young people, displaying symptoms of irrational fear and panic are therefore supporting these very bad decisions.

    And as well as that I see a depressing number of people (including a large number of ordinary people) who are having a great time at the moment because they love the idea of telling people what to do. They want more social control. They like the idea of fun being outlawed (especially the kind of fun that appeals to people they don't approve of).

    And lastly (and I am being semi-facetious here), for autistic people it's the chance of imposing an Autistic New World Order on the non-autistic. You see a lot of that here at UR, the online home of autism.
  69. @Bragadocious
    Liberals see their ideological heroes in Western Europe doing the big oppressive lockdowns so they think it's best to copy them. These people literally cannot think for themselves. But then you mention Sweden and they erupt. "Oh, Fox News' new favorite country" they sneer, as they no longer view Sweden as a sovereign country, with an interesting story to tell, but rather as a political tool for Fox News. They're psychopathic.

    If we imposed partisan quotas in academia, I suspect this problem would go away.

    There’s something wrong when the only major university that is “right wing” is BYU.

  70. @another anon
    What lesson? In your meditations, people you cite are sure that we are "following" trajectory of ancient Rome, but are unsure about minor details whether "we are" in time of Gracchus, Sulla, Caesar, Caligula or Diocletian.

    Assuming, we are "destined" to repeat fate of Roman Empire, and not Assyrian, Mongol , Zulu or any other numerous empires of history.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_empires

    Could be those too, sure. We know the most by far about Rome though.

  71. 216 says:
    @Twinkie

    Again, break that down to the county level and the effects of proximity to the Imperial City are even more obvious. Northern Virginia counties made a huge difference in the last 2 to 4 elections on a statewide basis. NoVa is the reason VA is trending “purple to blue”. The Imperial Capitol attracts grifters, hangers -on and a whole lot of immivaders.
     
    This is a shallow conventional wisdom on the right that is at odds with some inconvenient facts. For example:

    1. Northern Virginia benefits greatly from federal contracting rather than entitlements, yes. But so does the Hampton Roads area on the southeastern part of the state due to the massive military and shipbuilding and maintenance infrastructure there. The federal presence in that region is considerably older and more pervasive. What has changed over the past decade is that federal dollars are increasingly spent on services, with information technology being the most obvious sector, rather than on (military) hardware in the traditional sense.

    2. Although immigration has changed the landscape of Northern Virginia dramatically, most of the immigrants cannot vote yet. The demographic aspect of the leftward political shift of the once reliably Republican Virginia exurbs of DC is not due to foreign immigrants, but internal migration from northern states, accompanied by exodus of native Virginians from the region to other southern states (rather than to more rural Virginia counties).

    3. Although state-wide elections are highly affected by the demographic growth of Northern Virginia, that does not explain why the Democrats took control of the VA Senate and the House of Delegates in the last election - those were local elections. For that, we need to examine other causes, namely, court-mandated restricting, polarization of urban vs. rural (white) voters, and collapse of the RPV (the Republican Party of VA) from the infighting between economic conservatives and social conservatives (which has now morphed into conservatives vs. Trumpian populists).

    4. The increasing rural vs. urban (and suburban) white political divide has hit Virginia hard. As I mentioned before, the Republican backstop to large Democratic votes in the DC suburbs had been the suburban-exurban area around Richmond. However, the GOP has all but collapsed in the suburbs and exurbs populated by educated, upper middle class voters. GOP in Virginia is increasingly the party of the disaffected, less educated rural voters. In a state that is increasingly becoming more suburbanized and where the rural population is declining rapidly, the political realignment - of populism vs. technocratism - is clear for all to see, and it’s also obvious who has the upper hand.

    A bit of a tangent, but here I go anyways

    The survival of the Right in this country is dependent on its revival as a scaled-up Singaporean PAP in urban areas.

    Rural libertarianism is always co-opted by the urbane lolbertarians, bereft of the former’s cultural conservatism. Such that the authoritarian glove is the only option left. Our people have too much inertia in the older generations to get it.

    Long ago I said that in certain perma-Bluestan, the GOP should just dissolve and let a DSA party emerge to the left of the Democrats.

    The problem with Belarus or Bust, is that you end up living in Belarus if you win.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    Long ago I said that in certain perma-Bluestan, the GOP should just dissolve and let a DSA party emerge to the left of the Democrats.
     
    In some of West Coast state cities, local elections are contests between different wings of the Democratic Party or, in some funny cases, that between the Democrats and Greens/Socialists.
  72. @216
    A bit of a tangent, but here I go anyways

    The survival of the Right in this country is dependent on its revival as a scaled-up Singaporean PAP in urban areas.

    Rural libertarianism is always co-opted by the urbane lolbertarians, bereft of the former's cultural conservatism. Such that the authoritarian glove is the only option left. Our people have too much inertia in the older generations to get it.

    Long ago I said that in certain perma-Bluestan, the GOP should just dissolve and let a DSA party emerge to the left of the Democrats.

    The problem with Belarus or Bust, is that you end up living in Belarus if you win.

    Long ago I said that in certain perma-Bluestan, the GOP should just dissolve and let a DSA party emerge to the left of the Democrats.

    In some of West Coast state cities, local elections are contests between different wings of the Democratic Party or, in some funny cases, that between the Democrats and Greens/Socialists.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    Indeed, in 2018 the GOP did not run an opposition candidate in 40 congressional races. So that strategy is already in effect in almost one-tenth of the country.
  73. @Audacious Epigone
    Even that's not clear cut. Eventually it will be in their interests to do so, but not until their pesky competitors are taken out. Right now, everyone is still under water. The globalists have big lungs and huge oxygen tanks so they can stay under for a long time. The small operations have drowned and the faces of the more robust mid-sized and private operations are turning blue. Coming up for air now will still save a lot of them, so it's imperative to keep them under water for another month or two.

    Even that’s not clear cut. Eventually it will be in their interests to do so, but not until their pesky competitors are taken out. Right now, everyone is still under water. The globalists have big lungs and huge oxygen tanks so they can stay under for a long time. The small operations have drowned and the faces of the more robust mid-sized and private operations are turning blue. Coming up for air now will still save a lot of them, so it’s imperative to keep them under water for another month or two.

    Yes, that’s quite true.

    But I don’t see any of this as any kind of organised globalist conspiracy. Some globalist corporations are certainly acting opportunistically and they’re undoubtedly delighted to see competitors wiped out. But I don’t see a conspiracy.

    What I see are a lot of politicians, media people and scientists displaying incompetence, cowardice, cynicism and sheer blind panic and as a result making very very bad decisions. And what I also see are a lot of ordinary people, especially young people, displaying symptoms of irrational fear and panic are therefore supporting these very bad decisions.

    And as well as that I see a depressing number of people (including a large number of ordinary people) who are having a great time at the moment because they love the idea of telling people what to do. They want more social control. They like the idea of fun being outlawed (especially the kind of fun that appeals to people they don’t approve of).

    And lastly (and I am being semi-facetious here), for autistic people it’s the chance of imposing an Autistic New World Order on the non-autistic. You see a lot of that here at UR, the online home of autism.

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @nebulafox
    >But I don’t see any of this as any kind of organised globalist conspiracy. Some globalist corporations are certainly acting opportunistically and they’re undoubtedly delighted to see competitors wiped out. But I don’t see a conspiracy.

    I like the concept of "Schelling Points": there doesn't need to be an preexisting organized conspiracy, if enough people act on their own in the same direction, you get similar results.
  74. @Che Blutarsky
    That was the stupidest post I've read in a while, maybe since the last time I read one of your posts.

    What’s stupid about it? I’m curious.

    Has the “Conservative”, “businessman.” Commander in Chief said that he is in favor of all US business re-opening immediately?

    Please let me know, I do not have a television so I don’t watch the nightly news.

  75. @another anon
    What lesson? In your meditations, people you cite are sure that we are "following" trajectory of ancient Rome, but are unsure about minor details whether "we are" in time of Gracchus, Sulla, Caesar, Caligula or Diocletian.

    Assuming, we are "destined" to repeat fate of Roman Empire, and not Assyrian, Mongol , Zulu or any other numerous empires of history.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_empires

    At the moment it’s looking like the Xhosa.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nongqawuse

  76. @Intelligent Dasein

    AE’s assessment that 2020 is a historical inflection point is right on the money.
     
    2020 will end up being an inflection year for a great many things. I think the whole globalist attitude along with the idea of giving free rein to the banks and the corporate kleptocracy is also coming to an end. It's dawning on the masses that they've been well and truly screwed by just about every large societal institution, public and private. This is not going to end well, but it's damn sure going to end.

    Back in the early '90s when I was a wee lad of about 11 or 12, I also predicted that 2020 would be an inflection point for something else---computer usage. It occurred to me then that this was the year that we would reach the limits of what computers can do. I do not mean raw computational power as in Moore's Law (although this is also declining; Moore's Law is no longer a law), but rather the ability for societies to economically utilize computers for self-evidently beneficial and constructive purposes. There is a point of diminishing returns when adding more layers of technology becomes a net cost rather than a benefit. I think that not only have we reached this level in 2020, we've overshot it. This is going to become evident soon.

    I agree with you on many levels. But computing has not reached its limits necessarily.

    I tend to believe that 2007 was the peak year, however, with the starting widespread use of smartphones and Facebook.

    I think the United States from a power and economic standpoint peaked around 1969-72 with the Vietnam War and the peak in American (conventional) oil-production.

    I believe we have been in very slow decline since then.

    Robert Gordon’s “The Rise and Fall of American Growth” makes a decent case that the numerous advances in multiple fields between say 1920 and 1940 were much more game-changing than all the advances of computing and technology and their effect on productivity from 1980 til the present.

    The speed of penetration and effects of air-conditioning, refrigeration, and television were truly amazing but don’t get much attention these days. And of course there is still the question of “what’s next?”

    This is a decent article by John Gray

    https://www.newstatesman.com/international/2020/04/why-crisis-turning-point-history

  77. @dfordoom

    Even that’s not clear cut. Eventually it will be in their interests to do so, but not until their pesky competitors are taken out. Right now, everyone is still under water. The globalists have big lungs and huge oxygen tanks so they can stay under for a long time. The small operations have drowned and the faces of the more robust mid-sized and private operations are turning blue. Coming up for air now will still save a lot of them, so it’s imperative to keep them under water for another month or two.
     
    Yes, that's quite true.

    But I don't see any of this as any kind of organised globalist conspiracy. Some globalist corporations are certainly acting opportunistically and they're undoubtedly delighted to see competitors wiped out. But I don't see a conspiracy.

    What I see are a lot of politicians, media people and scientists displaying incompetence, cowardice, cynicism and sheer blind panic and as a result making very very bad decisions. And what I also see are a lot of ordinary people, especially young people, displaying symptoms of irrational fear and panic are therefore supporting these very bad decisions.

    And as well as that I see a depressing number of people (including a large number of ordinary people) who are having a great time at the moment because they love the idea of telling people what to do. They want more social control. They like the idea of fun being outlawed (especially the kind of fun that appeals to people they don't approve of).

    And lastly (and I am being semi-facetious here), for autistic people it's the chance of imposing an Autistic New World Order on the non-autistic. You see a lot of that here at UR, the online home of autism.

    >But I don’t see any of this as any kind of organised globalist conspiracy. Some globalist corporations are certainly acting opportunistically and they’re undoubtedly delighted to see competitors wiped out. But I don’t see a conspiracy.

    I like the concept of “Schelling Points”: there doesn’t need to be an preexisting organized conspiracy, if enough people act on their own in the same direction, you get similar results.

    • Agree: dfordoom
  78. @Twinkie

    Long ago I said that in certain perma-Bluestan, the GOP should just dissolve and let a DSA party emerge to the left of the Democrats.
     
    In some of West Coast state cities, local elections are contests between different wings of the Democratic Party or, in some funny cases, that between the Democrats and Greens/Socialists.

    Indeed, in 2018 the GOP did not run an opposition candidate in 40 congressional races. So that strategy is already in effect in almost one-tenth of the country.

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