Agnostic wonders if a DACA amnesty is suicide for Republicans… or if it is actually suicide for Democrats. He is one of the most original and perspicacious thinkers out there. It would be folly not to take him seriously here.
That said, there are some questionable assumptions in the argument he makes:
Most immigrants, legal or illegal, are heavily concentrated in safe states — mostly deep blue ones like California and New York, but also deep red ones like Texas and Utah. Millions more newly legalized citizens with voting rights in California will be no big loss to the GOP there, as the party effectively no longer exists in that state.
Of the 30 states Trump won in 2016, his margin of victory was wider in 21 of them than it was in Texas. It was narrower in just eight. Texas is still reliably Republican for now, but it is hardly a “deep red” state.
It can’t be dismissed as a one off instance, either, the consequence of a socially moderate, non-traditional Republican candidate. Iowa, too, is a tradcon state–and generally considered a toss-up in 21st century presidential elections–and Trump won it more decisively than he won Texas.
Romney’s Texas margin of victory of 16 points was larger than Trump’s 9 points, but it too was among the more narrow of red state wins. In 2008, McCain’s Texas margin was 12 points.
Compare California, which a generation ago was a reliably red state, too. As demographics have turned it reliably blue, its remaining whites have not jointed together to form a Republican bloc. On the contrary, they have become more supportive of Democrats over time.
The more that demographics change toward non-white, the more whites will vote as a bloc.
Who are the most reliable non-white Democrat voters? Blacks. Where are blacks the largest share of the population? In the South. What region is completely off the table for Democrats? Also the South, because whites said “fair is fair” and began voting as a bloc like the blacks.
Texas would do the same thing if Hispanic immigrants poured in enough to make them a near-majority.
Putting aside that the cavaliers and highlanders in the South are not the Puritans, Quakers, and Teutons out West, Texas’ whites already strongly vote Republican, at about 75%-25%. That’s far and away the most Republican-skewed white population among states with large Hispanic populations in the country.
It’s possible white Texans will move towards an Alabama or Mississippi levels of white electoral solidarity, but as the Austinization–Hillary won Travis county by a margin of more than 2-to-1 even though non-Hispanic whites make up half the population–of the state continues, that may not be the way to bet.
Now that the DACA people are going to be amnestied, the next move by globalists will be to broaden it to other groups who are slightly lower on the sympathy scale, potentially including all 20 million illegals by the final round.
Immigration hardliners argue that mass amnesty is suicide for the GOP, since immigrants lean so heavily Democrat. They are trying to argue to Republican party leaders that, even if they despise their voters, they should at least back off of amnesty in order to ensure their own survival as a major party.
This is a naive argument, which explains why it is never listened to by the GOP.
Every legislative amnesty that has been attempted in the last couple of decades has been stopped by Republican congressmen. Things go the way they do until they don’t, but why should we expect this time around to be different?
In 2007, Democrats controlled both houses of congress–and amnesty got crushed. In 2013, Republicans controlled both houses of congress–and amnesty got crushed.
Throughout 2015 the GOPe thought the idea Trump had any chance at the nomination, let alone the presidency, was–to put it very mildly–naive. It’s called the stupid party for a reason.
There is no 4D chess being played here. Republican congressmen are pushed by their donors to support amnesty and pulled by their voters to oppose it. The donors are proactive, the voters reactive. The donors make the marionette congressmen dance a furious jig in favor of amnesty. Seeing this, the congressmen’s voters go for the scissors and cut the strings before the amnesty dance can work its magic.
This has been the case since 1986. At some point it will cease to be the case, but America’s demographics in 2017 are not that different from 2013 or even 2007, and we have a president who–whatever the exact nature of his true feelings–is less receptive to amnesty than Bush or Obama were.
We also now have a vastly interconnected virtual network with tens of thousands of nodes that reach hundreds of millions of people in aggregate. If we can get guys like Stefan Molyneux and Mike Cernovich imploring people to light up the congressional switchboards, we can stop a DACA amnesty.
Agnostic’s fatalism is irritating because we need not be passive observers as this plays out. Trump is positioning himself well politically no matter how things turn out–he’s rescinded DACA as promised and now has kicked it to the ‘people’s elected representatives’. The people will decide, you see, and that’s democracy in action!
If we, the voters who have gently rested the tips of our spears on the backs of our congressmen so they have no choice but to face forward, let our guard down here, our front lines will break and we’ll be routed by the forces of amnesty.
It’s not hard to see why Trump isn’t eager to die on this hill alone. If we don’t join him to storm it, he’ll wave the other side by instead of engaging them.
DACA is an unconstitutional executive action enacted against the will of the American public and without the consent of our elected representatives. It should never have taken effect and should never go back into effect again.
Illegal aliens must not be rewarded for violating the laws of the land, whether they’re sixteen or sixty years old. We have our own problems to deal with. We do not need to be creating more. America first!
Call, write, email, fax, whatever. Keep it even simpler if you’d prefer–“No DACA amnesty. It’s time we stopped forgetting about our own children. America first!”
Amnesty this time is more likely b/c it’s not comprehensive but just for the DACA people — say 1 million max, vs. the 10-20 million total — and they’re chosen to be the most sympathetic cases, vs. any illegal no matter how awful.
The more I think about it, the more the conclusion becomes unavoidable that this battle is huge, the most monumental one of the Trump presidency thus far. If a DACA amnesty is stopped, the least objectionable variation of amnesty will have been stopeed by the judiciary, the executive, and the legislature.
If it passes in congress, the judicial and executive stops are negated and reversed, respectively. A new precedent will be set, one that hasn’t existed in a generation. The thin end of the wedge will be in and attempts at more expansive amnesties will trail close behind.