The Unz Review: An Alternative Media Selection
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 TeasersAudacious Epigone Blog
Obama's Loyal Lieutenant
🔊 Listen RSS
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • BShow CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Troll, or LOL with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

Intentioned or instinctive, this is tactically brilliant:

Sensing the corporate media’s attempt to anoint Elizabeth Warren, Trump is ensuring Biden’s black support rallies around Obama’s right-hand man. As VP, Biden was no George HW Bush to Ronald Reagan. By all accounts, he was a steadfast lackey. Blacks largely support Biden for precisely that reason.

Tangentially, boy did I misread who the 2020 black candidate was going to be. From the latest Fox News poll, net favorability (favorable – unfavorable) among black voters of the Democrat candidates the survey inquired about:

Biden: +57
Sanders: +55
Warren: +37
Booker: +27
Harris: +26
Yang: +22
O’Rourke: +15
Buttigieg: +6

Pivoting again, the share of top candidates’ supporters who say they are not paying a lot of attention to the campaign:

Sanders — 69%
Harris — 67%
Yang — 67%
Biden — 42%
Warren — 42%
Buttigieg — 38%

From the candidates’ perspectives, high percentages are a good thing. They serve as a good proxy for who has already made their minds up on who they’ll be voting for.

Harris and Yang have modest support bases, but Sanders’ is large. That more than two-thirds of them are not paying close attention to the campaign is an indication of their electoral loyalty. They will be donating to and voting for him in primaries and caucuses through the end of the nominating process.

If Warren solidifies her position as the corporate media’s preferred candidate, Biden is able to hold onto his black support, and Sanders is able to reliably pull in ~20% in state after state, there’s a real possibility of a contested convention.

 
• Category: Culture/Society, Ideology • Tags: Election 2020 
Hide 22 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
  1. Contra

    Here we see the weakness of the intellectual Right. Despite the growing popular support for regulation and antitrust against Big Tech, the intellectual firepower is entirely on the left. Heritage and AEI, even Niskansen won’t go for this, lest it upset donors.

    The complaint really is that Facebook doesn’t gatekeep *more*, because OldMedia will deny Trump the permission to run certain ads (a power which should be stripped, given their FCC regulation).

    It’s silly to think that Facebook is making anything other than token revenue from Trump ads, but its grist for the mill on their side.

    • Replies: @El Dato

    We intentionally made a Facebook ad with false claims
     
    Yeah, this sounds like a direct attack ad with false claims, and someone might be looking at a lawsuit here.

    Warren Team: "Oh God, who put that out? Someone will go to the wall for this... let's pretend we were just 'testing Facebook'. Yeah."
  2. Speaking of gatekeeping.
    I closed the gate on my computer to keep anything from facebook out. (/etc/hosts)
    Can’t see Warren’s ad.
    Warren’s desperate, clutching at whatever brings attention and her name in the media.

  3. If there is a contested convention, who do you believe is favored for the nominee and vp positions? Why?

  4. @216
    Contra

    https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1183019897804197888

    Here we see the weakness of the intellectual Right. Despite the growing popular support for regulation and antitrust against Big Tech, the intellectual firepower is entirely on the left. Heritage and AEI, even Niskansen won't go for this, lest it upset donors.

    The complaint really is that Facebook doesn't gatekeep *more*, because OldMedia will deny Trump the permission to run certain ads (a power which should be stripped, given their FCC regulation).

    It's silly to think that Facebook is making anything other than token revenue from Trump ads, but its grist for the mill on their side.

    We intentionally made a Facebook ad with false claims

    Yeah, this sounds like a direct attack ad with false claims, and someone might be looking at a lawsuit here.

    Warren Team: “Oh God, who put that out? Someone will go to the wall for this… let’s pretend we were just ‘testing Facebook’. Yeah.”

    • Replies: @SFG
    They could go freedom of speech as a defense--and since they said it was false in the ad itself, they could argue there was no intention to deceive. I honestly have no clue which way the law would turn out. I suspect it would depend on the judge.
    , @Jon

    Yeah, this sounds like a direct attack ad with false claims, and someone might be looking at a lawsuit here.
     
    The intentional "fake ad" is the one in her tweet. The lie is that Zuckerberg endorsed Trump, but she clearly states that that is not actually true in the third sentence and then explains the whole thing. I don't really see why she thinks Facebook was supposed to refuse this ad.
  5. If ya really wanna know gatekeeping, look at Tulsi

  6. @El Dato

    We intentionally made a Facebook ad with false claims
     
    Yeah, this sounds like a direct attack ad with false claims, and someone might be looking at a lawsuit here.

    Warren Team: "Oh God, who put that out? Someone will go to the wall for this... let's pretend we were just 'testing Facebook'. Yeah."

    They could go freedom of speech as a defense–and since they said it was false in the ad itself, they could argue there was no intention to deceive. I honestly have no clue which way the law would turn out. I suspect it would depend on the judge.

    • Replies: @216
    Warren's promise to use antitrust against Big Tech has them apparently afraid, perhaps enough to quietly back Trump (or a Gary-like splinter candidate)

    In that case, it may be time for "The Alt-Right case for Elizabeth Warren"
  7. @SFG
    They could go freedom of speech as a defense--and since they said it was false in the ad itself, they could argue there was no intention to deceive. I honestly have no clue which way the law would turn out. I suspect it would depend on the judge.

    Warren’s promise to use antitrust against Big Tech has them apparently afraid, perhaps enough to quietly back Trump (or a Gary-like splinter candidate)

    In that case, it may be time for “The Alt-Right case for Elizabeth Warren”

  8. @El Dato

    We intentionally made a Facebook ad with false claims
     
    Yeah, this sounds like a direct attack ad with false claims, and someone might be looking at a lawsuit here.

    Warren Team: "Oh God, who put that out? Someone will go to the wall for this... let's pretend we were just 'testing Facebook'. Yeah."

    Yeah, this sounds like a direct attack ad with false claims, and someone might be looking at a lawsuit here.

    The intentional “fake ad” is the one in her tweet. The lie is that Zuckerberg endorsed Trump, but she clearly states that that is not actually true in the third sentence and then explains the whole thing. I don’t really see why she thinks Facebook was supposed to refuse this ad.

  9. Based Gen Z

    Empirically verified???

    I’ve been a critic of the thesis, but here’s an instance where it actually appeared (Canada polls are the other, at least with men)

    Otoh, K15 did well in this bracket in the last elecrion. Has basically vanished now, merged with other parties after the leadership cucked.

    In other news, the results in Hungary were bad.

    • Replies: @Hail

    the results in Hungary were bad.
     
    What results? How bad?
  10. I can’t remember if it was you, another site, or a comment but it was pointed out that Black Virginians were most behind Ralph Northam (more than White Democrats)

    Following the accusations of black face, Northam began his apology tour, started reading Ta Nehisi Coates, talked about the legacy of racism, etc. I believe this was viewed favorably by African Americans as it meant for the rest of his term, he would have to bend over backward for them.

  11. @216
    Based Gen Z

    Empirically verified???

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1183487205605609473

    I've been a critic of the thesis, but here's an instance where it actually appeared (Canada polls are the other, at least with men)

    Otoh, K15 did well in this bracket in the last elecrion. Has basically vanished now, merged with other parties after the leadership cucked.

    ---

    In other news, the results in Hungary were bad.

    the results in Hungary were bad.

    What results? How bad?

    • Replies: @ariel
    Fidesz lost the budapest mayoral election
  12. The elderly Sanders had a brush with passing away due to a possible heart attack. He might not make it through the campaign. Biden and Warren are also over 70 years old and could have medical emergencies at any time. If Bernie passes away where will his supporters jump to?

    • Replies: @anon
    Even if Bernie stays alive, he probably won't be able to campaign as much as in 2016, so he's effectively out already. I have zero insight where his supporters are likely to go, at a guess I'd say Warren.
  13. @Hail

    the results in Hungary were bad.
     
    What results? How bad?

    Fidesz lost the budapest mayoral election

    • Replies: @Hail

    John Morgan @licht_alberich
    Oct 14, 2019

    If Budapest could survive the Turks and Stalin, it can certainly survive five years of having an incel for a Mayor.
     
    , @216
    The importance has to be seen in three dimensions. By losing control of the cities, its possible that the new liberal mayors will likely expose corruption that the previous mayors participated in.

    For those familiar with Euro politics, think back to Chirac's time as Paris Mayor. By virtue of being elected President, he was immune from prosecution for the corruption he oversaw. But once the right lost control of Paris, the left exposed it, and the right hasn't come close to sniffing power ever since.

    Strangely, the Gyor mayor caught in the sex scandal was re-elected.

    ---

    Spinning back to the US, I once discussed in Karlin's thread on the Moscow City Council elections that the importance of the opposition controlling the symbolic municipal offices. The Hungarian liberals were prior to yesterday a joke, in the same way that the GOP is perceived in most cities of this country because of its absence on city councils and among mayors.

    The Right would do well to change city council elections to include proportional representation, rather than having all seats elected either with single-member districts or at-large.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia_City_Council

    Not to praise that city's government structure, but it's a rare example of a de-facto proportional system, which is also mirroed with PA county commissioners. (Historic appearance has somewhat been negative, due to the rather corrupt nature of PA)
  14. @ariel
    Fidesz lost the budapest mayoral election

    John Morgan @licht_alberich
    Oct 14, 2019

    If Budapest could survive the Turks and Stalin, it can certainly survive five years of having an incel for a Mayor.

  15. @ariel
    Fidesz lost the budapest mayoral election

    The importance has to be seen in three dimensions. By losing control of the cities, its possible that the new liberal mayors will likely expose corruption that the previous mayors participated in.

    For those familiar with Euro politics, think back to Chirac’s time as Paris Mayor. By virtue of being elected President, he was immune from prosecution for the corruption he oversaw. But once the right lost control of Paris, the left exposed it, and the right hasn’t come close to sniffing power ever since.

    Strangely, the Gyor mayor caught in the sex scandal was re-elected.

    Spinning back to the US, I once discussed in Karlin’s thread on the Moscow City Council elections that the importance of the opposition controlling the symbolic municipal offices. The Hungarian liberals were prior to yesterday a joke, in the same way that the GOP is perceived in most cities of this country because of its absence on city councils and among mayors.

    The Right would do well to change city council elections to include proportional representation, rather than having all seats elected either with single-member districts or at-large.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia_City_Council

    Not to praise that city’s government structure, but it’s a rare example of a de-facto proportional system, which is also mirroed with PA county commissioners. (Historic appearance has somewhat been negative, due to the rather corrupt nature of PA)

    • Replies: @anon
    The Soros orgs have been pushing their candidates into the offices of Secretary of State and certain District Attorney elections for a few cycles.

    In the US, elections within each state are controlled by and certified by the Secretary of State. It is much easier to create false ballots, especially the provisional ones, if you control the Sec of State. This is how Stuart Smalley became a Senator from Minnesota, for example.

    The typical US District Attorney is the gatekeeper for criminal prosecution. One doesn't need to control all the DA's, just those in certain cities. One reason Antifa controls the streets of Portland and Seattle at will is selective prosecution - the D.A. ignores certain crimes.

    The Republican Stupid Party sorely needs to contest those offices in general, but especially in key states such as Oregon, Washington, Colorado and so forth.
  16. @anonymous
    The elderly Sanders had a brush with passing away due to a possible heart attack. He might not make it through the campaign. Biden and Warren are also over 70 years old and could have medical emergencies at any time. If Bernie passes away where will his supporters jump to?

    Even if Bernie stays alive, he probably won’t be able to campaign as much as in 2016, so he’s effectively out already. I have zero insight where his supporters are likely to go, at a guess I’d say Warren.

  17. anon[333] • Disclaimer says:
    @216
    The importance has to be seen in three dimensions. By losing control of the cities, its possible that the new liberal mayors will likely expose corruption that the previous mayors participated in.

    For those familiar with Euro politics, think back to Chirac's time as Paris Mayor. By virtue of being elected President, he was immune from prosecution for the corruption he oversaw. But once the right lost control of Paris, the left exposed it, and the right hasn't come close to sniffing power ever since.

    Strangely, the Gyor mayor caught in the sex scandal was re-elected.

    ---

    Spinning back to the US, I once discussed in Karlin's thread on the Moscow City Council elections that the importance of the opposition controlling the symbolic municipal offices. The Hungarian liberals were prior to yesterday a joke, in the same way that the GOP is perceived in most cities of this country because of its absence on city councils and among mayors.

    The Right would do well to change city council elections to include proportional representation, rather than having all seats elected either with single-member districts or at-large.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia_City_Council

    Not to praise that city's government structure, but it's a rare example of a de-facto proportional system, which is also mirroed with PA county commissioners. (Historic appearance has somewhat been negative, due to the rather corrupt nature of PA)

    The Soros orgs have been pushing their candidates into the offices of Secretary of State and certain District Attorney elections for a few cycles.

    In the US, elections within each state are controlled by and certified by the Secretary of State. It is much easier to create false ballots, especially the provisional ones, if you control the Sec of State. This is how Stuart Smalley became a Senator from Minnesota, for example.

    The typical US District Attorney is the gatekeeper for criminal prosecution. One doesn’t need to control all the DA’s, just those in certain cities. One reason Antifa controls the streets of Portland and Seattle at will is selective prosecution – the D.A. ignores certain crimes.

    The Republican Stupid Party sorely needs to contest those offices in general, but especially in key states such as Oregon, Washington, Colorado and so forth.

    • Replies: @216
    While those are useful points, it has little to do with what I wrote.

    Most states elect the SoS, some appoint. Given the reduced nature of ticket-splitting, you no longer get bipartisan state Cabinets that checks electoral tomfoolery. In Wisconsin, IIRC, a bipartisan board runs the elections. This is also the practice with many county-level board of elections.

    The Soros backed District Attorneys often won contested Dem primaries against the police-union backed incumbents. In most cases the GOP is washed out because these counties are so heavily blue, locally in Cuyahoga County the GOP didn't even run.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Satterberg

    The King County Prosectuor was nominally a Republican until 2018.

    The secretary of state in Oregon is actually a Republican. The GOP hasn't won the Oregon governor since the 1980s, the GOP did win the Washington Governor in 2004, but was robbed while a Republican was SoS.

    ---

    My point was about switching city councils to proportional representation, so as to rebuild a GOP base of elected officials in perma-blue cities. These council members would then have a higher profile to have better chances of election to mayor and county offices.
  18. @anon
    The Soros orgs have been pushing their candidates into the offices of Secretary of State and certain District Attorney elections for a few cycles.

    In the US, elections within each state are controlled by and certified by the Secretary of State. It is much easier to create false ballots, especially the provisional ones, if you control the Sec of State. This is how Stuart Smalley became a Senator from Minnesota, for example.

    The typical US District Attorney is the gatekeeper for criminal prosecution. One doesn't need to control all the DA's, just those in certain cities. One reason Antifa controls the streets of Portland and Seattle at will is selective prosecution - the D.A. ignores certain crimes.

    The Republican Stupid Party sorely needs to contest those offices in general, but especially in key states such as Oregon, Washington, Colorado and so forth.

    While those are useful points, it has little to do with what I wrote.

    Most states elect the SoS, some appoint. Given the reduced nature of ticket-splitting, you no longer get bipartisan state Cabinets that checks electoral tomfoolery. In Wisconsin, IIRC, a bipartisan board runs the elections. This is also the practice with many county-level board of elections.

    The Soros backed District Attorneys often won contested Dem primaries against the police-union backed incumbents. In most cases the GOP is washed out because these counties are so heavily blue, locally in Cuyahoga County the GOP didn’t even run.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Satterberg

    The King County Prosectuor was nominally a Republican until 2018.

    The secretary of state in Oregon is actually a Republican. The GOP hasn’t won the Oregon governor since the 1980s, the GOP did win the Washington Governor in 2004, but was robbed while a Republican was SoS.

    My point was about switching city councils to proportional representation, so as to rebuild a GOP base of elected officials in perma-blue cities. These council members would then have a higher profile to have better chances of election to mayor and county offices.

  19. If Warren solidifies her position as the corporate media’s preferred candidate, Biden is able to hold onto his black support, and Sanders is able to reliably pull in ~20% in state after state, there’s a real possibility of a contested convention.

    All of which is already leading the “We Want Hillary” factions to demand that Hillary gets a piece of the action. Hillary can’t make the entire campaign, primaries included, especially the past year’s festivities. But sure as hell, they could wheel chair her through a three-month National campaign and across the finish line to the White House from the convention if the other candidates are going to be in a deadlock with one another and/or found wanting vs. Trump.

    Tanned, Rested and READY! We haven’t heard the last of her and her presence in the election will be one more reminder we haven’t gotten much out of Trump’s many promises, one of which was to jail Hillary. These IG reports, Grand Juries, slam-dunk evidence of their espionage, security violations, the server, the NGO corruptions via the Global Initiative, the Clinton Foundation and of course, Bill’s depravities with Epstein, raping young girls at Lolita South (even HILLARY went down there, she likes licking young pussy, apparently), she’s going to get past all of it with no consequences. If she’s that powerful, then she can dispense with Sanders, Liz and the rest of them with a wave of her magic wand and run on whim. Hillary’s The One in the Democratic Party. Always was, always will be til she croaks. You heard it here first, starting about 11-9-2016.

  20. this is tactically brilliant

    Maybe; seems more like preaching to the choir to me — but it’s definitely boorish, and reinforces/confirms the (fairly wide) perception that Trump is a buffoon — tabloid politics — the freak show of Wash DC — all of that getting worse seemingly by the day — people chained to it by the coercive tax system (otherwise I honestly would not give a damn) — it’s not sustainable.

    • Replies: @Justvisiting
    Trump understands the Democratic primary system and he is trying to cause trouble.

    The reality is that it is almost impossible to have a brokered convention under the modern system. The reason is that the winners of the early states (Iowa, NH, SC) have a huge fund-raising advantage over their rivals--and most campaigns will be over after those three states.

    Bernie may be gone at that point, and Warren and Biden may be the only two candidates left standing.

    Democrats pay attention to major media (while Republicans hate and ignore the mass media) so they will be impressed by the horse race coverage.

    Trump is betting that the numbers will favor Warren after Iowa and NH, and Biden will need to be propped up or Warren will coast to victory.

    Trump wants Warren to waste time and money fighting Biden.

    That is a winning strategy. Winners of a messy Democratic nominating process have generally failed in the general election.

    This is because the Democratic primary voter is generally strongly in favor of their candidate, and takes it personally when another Democrat attacks them.

    If you don't believe me just talk to serious Democrats you know.

    Many Sanders voters stayed home in 2016, because they were angry at the way he was treated by fellow Democrats.

    Stirring up chaos in the Democratic primary is a brilliant strategy--it would be a major error to underestimate Trump as a strategist and tactician. Folks should have figured that out by this time.
    , @eah
    https://twitter.com/vdare/status/1183892982996619269
  21. @eah
    this is tactically brilliant

    Maybe; seems more like preaching to the choir to me -- but it's definitely boorish, and reinforces/confirms the (fairly wide) perception that Trump is a buffoon -- tabloid politics -- the freak show of Wash DC -- all of that getting worse seemingly by the day -- people chained to it by the coercive tax system (otherwise I honestly would not give a damn) -- it's not sustainable.

    Trump understands the Democratic primary system and he is trying to cause trouble.

    The reality is that it is almost impossible to have a brokered convention under the modern system. The reason is that the winners of the early states (Iowa, NH, SC) have a huge fund-raising advantage over their rivals–and most campaigns will be over after those three states.

    Bernie may be gone at that point, and Warren and Biden may be the only two candidates left standing.

    Democrats pay attention to major media (while Republicans hate and ignore the mass media) so they will be impressed by the horse race coverage.

    Trump is betting that the numbers will favor Warren after Iowa and NH, and Biden will need to be propped up or Warren will coast to victory.

    Trump wants Warren to waste time and money fighting Biden.

    That is a winning strategy. Winners of a messy Democratic nominating process have generally failed in the general election.

    This is because the Democratic primary voter is generally strongly in favor of their candidate, and takes it personally when another Democrat attacks them.

    If you don’t believe me just talk to serious Democrats you know.

    Many Sanders voters stayed home in 2016, because they were angry at the way he was treated by fellow Democrats.

    Stirring up chaos in the Democratic primary is a brilliant strategy–it would be a major error to underestimate Trump as a strategist and tactician. Folks should have figured that out by this time.

  22. @eah
    this is tactically brilliant

    Maybe; seems more like preaching to the choir to me -- but it's definitely boorish, and reinforces/confirms the (fairly wide) perception that Trump is a buffoon -- tabloid politics -- the freak show of Wash DC -- all of that getting worse seemingly by the day -- people chained to it by the coercive tax system (otherwise I honestly would not give a damn) -- it's not sustainable.

Comments are closed.

Subscribe to All Audacious Epigone Comments via RSS