State-level polling doesn’t bode well for president Trump’s reelection chances, at least as of May 19, 2020:
On the eve of election night, polling prognostications appeared much better for him than they had six months previously:
In late May 2016, Trump had just become the de facto nominee. Indiana, for all intents and purposes the state that settled the GOP nomination in Trump’s favor, voted on May 3. The NeverTrumper wounds were still fresh a few weeks later. Many of these bow ties ended up coming around to the GOP nominee by November. That dynamic is largely missing in 2020. Many of those late joiners now pass themselves off as Trump’s strongest supporters. They’re already on board. So what are the demographics Trump will bring over down the final stretch this time?