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State-level polling doesn’t bode well for president Trump’s reelection chances, at least as of May 19, 2020:

But how did Donald Trump’s election chances look at the same point in time during the 2016 campaign? Only modestly better:

On the eve of election night, polling prognostications appeared much better for him than they had six months previously:

In late May 2016, Trump had just become the de facto nominee. Indiana, for all intents and purposes the state that settled the GOP nomination in Trump’s favor, voted on May 3. The NeverTrumper wounds were still fresh a few weeks later. Many of these bow ties ended up coming around to the GOP nominee by November. That dynamic is largely missing in 2020. Many of those late joiners now pass themselves off as Trump’s strongest supporters. They’re already on board. So what are the demographics Trump will bring over down the final stretch this time?

 
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  1. nebulafox says:

    Well, either way, we have an inept, corrupt septuagenarian possibly dealing with early onset dementia in the White House, so I personally couldn’t care less about this election. Apres moi, le deluge really is the governing motto for our Silent/early Boomer-dominated ruling class.

    I’d be very surprised if Trump even comes close in this election after how he’s handled this pandemic. There’s no polishing his record here. Saying the Democrats have mostly been unhelpful is true, but pointless, as is pointing out that the real root of our problems lies at the decision of America’s bipartisan elites to systematically de-industralize us from the end of the Cold War onward. Nobody forced The Donald to pull another George W. Bush in prioritizing preserving CEO bonuses over the fate of ordinary Americans, or rejecting Prestige Ameritech’s offer in January for political reasons, or any other of the venal decisions he’s made in the context of this crisis.

    Yes, ordinary Americans should be much, much more fiscally responsible and physically healthy, and the pandemic wouldn’t be so deleterious if that were the case. But when you don’t set basic consequences for the leadership of society-economic, political, or otherwise-and will visibly bail them out at every turn, nagging the masses for their failings rings very hollow.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @Rosie
    , @anonymous
    , @Cloudbuster
  2. Rosie says:
    @nebulafox

    But when you don’t set basic consequences for the leadership of society-economic, political, or otherwise-and will visibly bail them out at every turn, nagging the masses for their failings rings very hollow.

    Not only that, but I’m not sure it’s possible for people to be fiscally responsible. I have never liked the dismal science, but I find myself developing more of an interest in it lately. I have a sense that the game is rigged, but I don’t know how. I suspect it has to do with information asymmetry, at least to some extent.

    People make bad decisions because they don’t have the information to make good ones. You see this especially with education. Parents get glossy brochures from colleges promising financial security for their children, and they fork over the money. This has led to the colleges capturing for themselves any marginal increase in the value created by educated workers.

    I don’t pllay poker, but this has always stuck with me: Look around the table, and if you don’t see the sucker, you’re it.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
  3. Daniel H says:

    Trump hasn’t a chance.

    1) The margin in PA, WI, MI, FL is dead, buried, moldering in the ground.

    2) Maximum prole turnout is necessary for a Trump victory. The proles aren’t riled up. What has Trump delivered? Why should the proles show up? Proles stay home, Trump loses. And today it is announced that that dirty, down-low Mitch McConnell will obstruct anymore extended UI benefits going forward. Stick it to the proles but give Wall Street everything they demanded. Way to go.

  4. @Daniel H

    The number of white deaths vs. new voters turning 18, since 2016, alone is enough to doom Trump in those states with thin margins.

    Trump didn’t support a pro white agenda so fewer whites will turn out for him this time.

    Dems will stuff the ballot box since Trump did nothing to fight voter fraud.

    It’s over.

    • Agree: Rosie
    • Replies: @Rosie
  5. indocon says:

    At this point, maybe we are all really better off with Trump implosion over next few months and eventual loss. In that scenario, I do believe Republicans will hang on to the Senate because enough squishy middle and right leaning voters will vote to keep trifecta away from Queen Stacey Abrams while voting for Biden. If the election is tossup but Trump still losers, then I see the reverse happening with the squishy types voting for the Democratic candidate hoping to keep a check on Trump. At this point it is very clear what Trump will do, everything for billionaires and Israel while throwing some crumbs to the rubes, and a whole lot of noise with it, we can’t deal with that for 4 more years. Immigration is a perfect example, he comes up with this immigration moratorium while green cards are being handed non-stop to Indian H1B’s, and a new batch of almost 300k temporary workers is about to hit the depression era job market. Stopping these temporary work visas is it as easy of a layup as there is policy wise, fact that Trump has not done it speaks volumes.

    I think we can survive Stacey Abram or Kamala Harris defecto presidency if we keep the Senate, if we can’t keep the Senate then all bets are off. The worst thing policy wise Democratic president could do is to up the refugee numbers and cut border enforcement. In this job market (which by the way is not getting better anytime soon), I can’t think of a better way to get more people to our side than that. Sure they get to replace RBG and maybe Breyer, to me it really does not matter.

  6. MattinLA says:

    It ‘s important to remember that on the eve of the election, almost every state poll in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan had shown Clinton ahead for months straight. This was the basis for elite pollster confidence about the sureness of a Clinton victory in those states. Turns out the state polls in those states (particularly Michigan) were notoriously bad that year. Will history repeat itself? Who knows. Also, keep in mind the new innovation of “battleground state” polls that several outlets (CNN and MSNBC) are running this year, which aggragate th ose states. So far, Trump is leading those battleground polls. Will they be better than the state polls, or worse, this year?

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  7. Daniel H says:

    I think we can survive Stacey Abram or Kamala Harris defecto presidency i

    We can survive Harris and Abrams but we cannot survive faithless, traitorous cucks and Chamber of Commerce types. November promises to be a great cleansing (though the cleaning agent will be quite toxic).

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
  8. nebulafox says:
    @Rosie

    >Not only that, but I’m not sure it’s possible for people to be fiscally responsible. I have a sense that the game is rigged, but I don’t know how.

    Whether the game is rigged or not, it doesn’t matter: life’s not fair and you gotta play it anyway. The neo-feudal vision doesn’t come true without masses of immiserated debtors.

    Inevitably, some people are going to struggle more than others, because part of innate intelligence-along with other factors, such as upbringing, mental health, etc-is an easier time delaying gratification. That’s why some people need stricter guidance from society to be functional. But I don’t buy the idea that the majority of adults who aren’t mentally retarded cannot learn at least a basic level of fiscal responsibility. It helps to realize that you are being manipulated constantly to spend more money than you need to, even on the basics: being hungry for a few hours wouldn’t have been considered unnatural for most of human history. It’s mundane stuff: if you are in debt, do everything in your power to shred it immediately. Once you are out of debt, save up emergency fund. Etc, etc. The fiscal health prescription will vary with your circumstances, but the general outline is the same.

    Two little hacks I’m trying to implement: wait 1 minute before buying anything not on the schedule compiled earlier that day, and record every transaction you make throughout the day on a small pad of paper. You’d be stunned what that does.

  9. anonymous[880] • Disclaimer says:
    @nebulafox

    Well, either way, we have an inept, corrupt septuagenarian possibly dealing with early onset dementia in the White House

    Biden isn’t corrupt. His son Hunter tried to get business deals off his family name but that shouldn’t be considered Biden’s own actions.

    • LOL: Cloudbuster, 22pp22
    • Replies: @res
    , @nebulafox
  10. Rosie says:
    @nebulafox

    But I don’t buy the idea that the majority of adults who aren’t mentally retarded cannot learn at least a basic level of fiscal responsibility.

    I don’t disagree with that. I just wonder if, supposing everyone did that, the result would be that people just have less income. In other words, does saving help you without hurting anyone else, or does it just mean more for you and less for someone else?

    I’ve heard the theory that saving funds investment, but is that true? What’s the straight dope?

    • Replies: @Yahya K.
  11. Rosie says:
    @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    It’s over.

    The working-class White women who swung for Trump will not bother turning out for him this time. WCWW are the largest voting block by race/gender/class.

  12. A123 says:

    what are the demographics Trump will bring over down the final stretch this time?

    Beneficiaries of “Red” governor, common sense policies. FL and most likely GA will be “Red”. DeSantis removed WUHAN-19 patients from nursing homes and immediately sent them to hospitals, saving thousands of lives.

    Victims of “Blue” governor lockdowns. PA, WI, MI are all “Red” States that are being miss reported.

    Cuomo’s debacle in NY may put that state into play. Children and grandchildren don’t want their loved ones put to death through government incompetence. 5,000+ avoidable deaths and growing.

    Biden’s situation is hopeless. The DNC would need to fabricate millions of ballots, and the GOP is watching for that level of industrial scale fraud. The American people will not accept a corrupt election result for mentally incapable Biden.

    PEACE 😷

    • Agree: Dutch Boy
    • Thanks: Manfred Arcane
  13. @nebulafox

    “Whether the game is rigged or not, it doesn’t matter: life’s not fair and you gotta play it anyway. … But I don’t buy the idea that the majority of adults who aren’t mentally retarded cannot learn at least a basic level of fiscal responsibility.”

    Those are true, but to Rosie‘s point, it does seem that sneaky paths to failure are multiplying while clear paths to success narrow ever further, the global house arrest being only the most recent and surreal example.

    For the lower class, getting ahead a little bit means that everyone around you swarms in to wet their beaks in your “good fortune”, and some may be violent about it. For the aspiring middle class, a good job offer may mean moving to a more expensive location with a more expensive commute, taking on some debt to do these things (to go along with the debt you already took to get the necessary credentials in the first place), and then once there the after-tax revenue turns out to be less than hoped while the expenses turn out to be more than anticipated, so you’re on a precarious path of razor thin surpluses with steep precipices for any errors/misfortunes. For the upper-middle and upper class, tort laws, divorce lawyers, SJW lynch gangs, ambitious prosecutors, weird tax penalties and other assorted hazards of post-modernity routinely grind up and spit out formerly productive members of society. One guy I know, former UMC professional, good job, house, family, worked hard, delayed gratification, saved for college, doing everything “right”, … his wife decides to step out on him because he spends too much time at work or maybe she’s just like that, I don’t know the details, anyhow, one divorce later, ex and lawyers have walked off with his life savings, he’s laid off because divorce distracted him from work, he’s chronically underemployed and in debt, paying off legal bills with credit cards. His damaged resume and terrible credit score keep him on the immiserated debtor treadmill. He says he feels like a chump. It’s hard to disagree. He did all that deferred gratification and saving for the future, but it just got taken by others for their gratification and future, while he got stuck with their bills. From the state’s or society’s point of view, one of their former pistons of prosperity is now just another economic drag pulling everyone else down. It’s hard to see how this situation is a net benefit to the state or society, but apparently state and society ceased caring about net benefit some time ago. As far as I can tell, everything is just determined by elite virtue signalling at this point, to the detriment of everyone.

    I might not go so far as Rosie saying “I’m not sure it’s possible for people to be fiscally responsible”, but we’re getting there. She says she has “a sense that the game is rigged”. Maybe. Or it may just be that the means for the parasites to prey on the productive have ramified, which from the point of view of the parasite’s victims looks a lot like it was rigged. And maybe the difference is just rhetorical anyway.

    As I say, in the past, this situation would cause alarm among the elite, not necessarily for any moral reason, but simply for the same reason that a farmer is alarmed when his crops blight or his livestock destroy each other: ultimately his own yields are hurt. But this is not our current elite, who seem to enjoy the carnage, … perhaps they themselves are the blight.

  14. @Almost Missouri

    Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

    That’s why I don’t really see a point to trying to maintain the current system. It’s rotten anyways. We can vote Trump, but Trump is just trying to save the white status quo, which is… shit… anyways.

    Personally I’m kind of excited about President Abrams. A real bitch who hates all whites equally. SWPL will no longer get a pass just because they’re “liberal” and “nice”.

  15. @A123

    I’d like to believe this, but…

    “Cuomo’s debacle in NY may put that state into play.”

    Despite his criminal incompetence, Cuomo’s approval ratings are at all-time highs. New Yorkers will again vote exactly how their betters tell them to. And it won’t be red.

    “The DNC would need to fabricate millions of ballots”

    Swing states were won in 2016 by a few thousand votes. Cancelling those out is easily within the capacity of a single precinct captain in Detroit, or a single ballot wrangler in Hispanic Arizona.

    “the GOP is watching for that level of industrial scale fraud.”

    When has this ever happened? The only time I can think of is sixty years ago when the GOP watched for, and observed, industrial scale fraud in Chicago and Texas stealing a national election. And they … did nothing. And this was under ruthless street fighter Nixon. Today’s cuck-champ GOP doesn’t watch sh*t except their insider-traded stock portfolios.

    How many GOP poll watchers dare go into today’s Detroit or can follow a ballot collector around Southwestern farm worker camps? Approximately zero. And if there is such a hero, what will happen? The GOP elite will look away, embarrassed, sweeping it under the rug.

    “The American people will not accept a corrupt election result for mentally incapable Biden”

    I’ve spent the last decades in increasing awe of what the American people will accept almost without complaint.

    I see no reason for optimism.

    • Agree: MBlanc46, HammerJack
  16. @Daniel H

    This “cleaning agent” will be dirtier than the dirt it was supposed to remove. Nothing ever got clean that way.

    • Replies: @Daniel H
  17. @nebulafox

    What is Trump supposed to have done wrong with the pandemic? The US is doing pretty well as far as the pandemic itself. It is winding down, and likely would have done so no matter what Trump or anyone did. The most harmful policies have been implemented at the state level, where Trump has no power to stop them. I just don’t see that there was a lot that could have been done much differently by Trump. We’ve had all the requisite expert panels and advice that everyone seems to want. We’ve had the international travel bans. I’m at a loss.

    • Replies: @Alexander Turok
  18. @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    You can’t make women happy.

    • Replies: @Rosie
    , @Anonymous
  19. @Cloudbuster

    Did you forget the FDA’s epic fail with testing?

    He should have apologized and held somebody responsible. Instead, he just blamed the Obama administration. Three years in and anything that goes wrong is the previous administration’s fault. Who does that remind you of?

    • Replies: @Cloudbuster
  20. @Alexander Turok

    Massive bureaucracies don’t completely change on a dime under new administrations. In fact, they barely change at all. The FDA today was decades in building. Putting the blame directly at Trump’s feet, or Obama’s, is just partisan posturing.

    Expecting a massive, unprecedented undertaking to be completely without mistakes is unrealistic. As I said, the US is doing fine. The virus apocalypse wasn’t. Trump performed about as well as many would have, and better than many would have.

  21. Daniel H says:
    @Almost Missouri

    This “cleaning agent” will be dirtier than the dirt it was supposed to remove. Nothing ever got clean that way.

    Republicans are the greater problem. There is no going forward until they are swept away.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
  22. looks about right. for 2 years now i’ve predicted Trump will lose by over 100 electoral votes.

    no need to repeat my arguments why. people who think otherwise are the ones who will need to do gymnastics to explain how Trump gets re-elected.

    Brad Parscale is a classic grifter. something the Never Trumpers and Lincoln Projecters are not wrong about about. dickwads pointing out the truth, only when it benefits them. they were happy to pay the same grifters the previous 30 years.

  23. here’s the real question. after Trump leaves office in January 2021, will Democrats continue to pursue him and his family? or will they figure that’s enough, America is defeated and conquered, no reason to spend time or energy going after our defeated enemies.

    i can see that going either way. Democrats may consider going after the last few Republicans as an essential mop up operation. if you have total power, what good is if if you don’t wield it. go ahead, humiliate your defeated opponents.

  24. @prime noticer

    95 year old Nazi soldiers are still being tried and convicted. Why wouldn’t the same happen to the Trumps?

    • Replies: @prime noticer
  25. @indocon

    “I think we can survive Stacey Abram or Kamala Harris defecto presidency”

    America didn’t even survive Obama despite Republicans holding the Senate and eventually House and nominally the Supreme Court. is this the same country as before Obama? upon further review, no. no it’s not. the America we knew is mostly gone from a single counter-American President.

    Vice President, then later President Abrams or Harris could call for the destruction of Mount Rushmore with terrified Republican pussies running away in fear. that’s how things are gonna be by 2030.

    going forward, one of the most important things probably is a strong campaign to convince young european men to not join the military. i think that’s what one of our goals should be after Trump leaves office. stop serving, stop joining. do something else with your life. educate them that they aren’t defending anything. don’t help the Empire that hates you. don’t be a Mule.

    • Replies: @indocon
  26. indocon says:
    @prime noticer

    “going forward, one of the most important things probably is a strong campaign to convince young european men to not join the military.”

    The problem is that the places from which future canon fodder for Israel aka recruits in American forces come from, have nothing else going on job prospects wise.

  27. Thomm says:

    Again, Trump wins easily. Remember that in 2016 he had no political track record, and there is no one who voted for him who now likes Biden more.

    For the most part, I am extremely satisfied with what he has done, and count myself among his enthusiastic supporters. He has delivered well for functional whites (80%). He was never meant to cater to the defective subrace (20%) who always have left-wing economic views anyway.

  28. Rosie says:
    @Cloudbuster

    You can’t make women happy.

    You tell yourself this to justify being an asshole.

  29. My gut tells me Trump will win. And no, I don’t know how to square this with the electoral map. I do have an idea of what might happen, though.

    Perhaps the “vote by mail” thing will be declared uncconstituional or invalid. That means people will have to find a way to actually break social distancing and go out and vote, at great inconvenience to themselves. That means the millions of Democratic canaille, who do not know where their polling place is and don’t know how to find out and aren’t even registered to vote anyway, will be too adled and distracted to actually vote on Election Day. Only the most motivated and competent people will put themselves through that ordeal, and they will be—by a slim majority—Trump voters.

    The Democrats will spin this into a narrative that Trump “supressed” the minority/poor/immigrant/homeless/junky/black/hispanic/transsexual/female vote and his election will be seen as extremely illigitimate by the entire Leftist establishment. It will be like the Florida recount, only nationwide, and will last throughout the remainder of his presidency.

    Trump may have to assume dictatorial powers just to keep the country functioning. The economy will crash, the debt will explode, social unrest will grow to riotous proprotions, and actual foreign wars with a peer power (almost certainly China) will be on the horizon. 2020 will be the last barely legitimate election we’ll ever have. After that, the country will be ruled incompetently by oligarchs until the Caesar comes.

  30. Rosie says:
    @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    What did he do to displease WCWW?

    It’s what he didn’t do, as in everything he promised. Why do you think they voted for him by a much wider margin than college-educated White men?

    No matter, though. You will go on hating women without regard do what we do or do not do because you’re an irrational misogynist pig.

    • Replies: @Rosie
  31. res says:
    @anonymous

    Biden isn’t corrupt. His son Hunter tried to get business deals off his family name but that shouldn’t be considered Biden’s own actions.

    Not sure if that is trolling or sincere (I sincerely hope the former).

    And Biden helping get the prosecutor who was investigating his son’s company fired is not corruption.
    https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/ukraine-judge-orders-joe-biden-be-listed-alleged

    Thanks for the laugh. What is not funny is that there are people who don’t seem to get this while flinging all sorts of bogus accusations at Trump. Not to mention our MSM doing the same.

  32. res says:
    @Intelligent Dasein

    My gut tells me Trump will win. And no, I don’t know how to square this with the electoral map. I do have an idea of what might happen, though.

    I’m amazed people seem to be declaring Biden the winner while he is still stuck in his basement.

    At this point I suspect the primary reason to keep the lockdowns going will be to prevent the respective campaigns from functioning as normal. Remember the comparison between 2016 Trump and Clinton rallies? Do people think Biden will do better or worse than Hillary at that? Then there are the debates. Assuming they aren’t either canceled or proceduralized into triviality.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @anon
    , @Alexander Turok
  33. Rosie says:
    @Rosie

    Although WCWW are still much more likely to support Trump than college-educated White men, the margin of support has gone down from about 20% to 14%. College White men are split.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/05/trump-winnowing-down-his-base/611902/

    I would imagine that the reduced support among WCWW will be enough to seal his fate, along with ongoing demographic change.

  34. A123 says:
    @res

    Remember the comparison between 2016 Trump and Clinton rallies? Do people think Biden will do better or worse than Hillary at that?

    Trump rallies were strong in 2019 with no GOP primary opposition.

    There is something seriously wrong with anyone who believes the intentionally deceptive Fake Media push polls. Everyone objective knows that they are detached from reality.

    PEACE 😷

  35. anon[199] • Disclaimer says:
    @res

    Plus the New York primary is still scheduled for June 23, therefore Biden has not even locked down the D nomination. Not yet, anyway. Probably he’s going to get it, but it isn’t done yet. The videos that are being served up of Biden do not look good, and that’s why the VP choice matters so much.

    Despair is not a good thing, and it’s too bad so many people are giving in to it.

    @Rosie, the Atlantic is a part of the megaphone. Their function now is the same as it was in 2016: to induce Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD) in Deplorables and to induce optimism and hope in urban goodwhites. It is propaganda as surely as Pravda was in the old USSR. Read carefully, or do not read at all, because it is specifically intended to demoralize women just like you.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  36. @Daniel H

    Yeah I remember how much we were winning in 2009-2011 when the Dems had a lock on the House, Senate and Presidency. Good times, good times.

    • Replies: @Daniel H
  37. Rosie says:

    See what I mean?

    Another manosphere jerk bowls us over with hard-hitting empirical analysis.

    • Replies: @Cloudbuster
  38. res says:
    @A123

    There is something seriously wrong with anyone who believes the intentionally deceptive Fake Media push polls. Everyone objective knows that they are detached from reality.

    Especially after having just lived through 2016. I do think it is worth comparing the different outlets with different biases though. It is also worth looking at the temporal trajectories. Especially close to the election where they generally want to have their final values be close enough to reality to allow plausible deniability.

    • Replies: @A123
  39. @Rosie

    Rosie, I am a working class white man. I do not think that voting for POTUS is important in anything but entertainment value. Like a poll on which pro wrestler yu like or hate more. I voted against Hillary in 2016. I found (from long before her candidacy) to be a loathsome, contemptible piece of trash, and Trump was more entertaining. The Dems can not carry Mr. Biden over the line, they can’t steal enough votes. Even with the four-square backing of every member of the media, it is impossible to disguise Biden’s unfortunate cognitive decline. He simply is not even remotely qualified to be President, and even the doctored election we will have will turn up a result confirming same.

    Will the Dems move Biden out of the way in favor of a black woman? If they don’t move Biden, they lose. If they move him for Stacy, Michelle, or Kamala, will the Bradley Effect come into play wiht the WCWW you refer to? Oh yeah. You betcha. Biden won’t poll and neither will any of the only candidates that the Dems can put up without an internecine war. So they can lose to Trump (a clown) with Biden, r lose to him with a black female. Talk about Hobson’s chice.

    Please write any other actually possible scenaris. I don’t see any for the Dems. No Bernie, Fauxcahontas, Mikey, Kasich, Klobachar, or Gabbard (who is actually the fittest of the litter by far) will be aceptable to the DIE Dems. So Good Luck!!

    • Replies: @Rosie
  40. Daniel H says:
    @Almost Missouri

    Yeah I remember how much we were winning in 2009-2011 when the Dems had a lock on the House, Senate and Presidency. Good times, good times.

    And we are winning with Trump? Were we winning with Bush, Bush Sr., Reagan. Man, you are so used to abuse from Republicans. You delight at the scraps that they sweep off the table and leave you to fight over.

    You have no idea what winning is like because it has never been tried with the Republicans, and it never will be.

  41. Dutch Boy says:
    @A123

    I suspect that the extended and arbitrary lockdowns in Democratic-controlled states will work in Trump’s favor and may be his only hope. If so, it will be a sweet irony, for those policies were intended to assure Trump’s defeat.

    • Agree: LondonBob
  42. A123 says:
    @res

    It is also worth looking at the temporal trajectories. Especially close to the election where they generally want to have their final values be close enough to reality to allow plausible deniability.

    Hmmmm…. I wonder if we will see a break in that pattern for some outlets.

    Plausible deniability is a protection to credibility. Those at 0%, a total lack of credibility, will have little motivation to ‘fig leaf’ something that does not exist.

    Also, Trump Derangement Syndrome will keep some of the rabid, low-IQ, mouth breathers in total outrage mode well past Trump’s inevitable victory.

    PEACE 😷

  43. @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    going after “Nazis” for 70 years was a Jewish campaign to psychologically condition europeans. and it largely worked. europeans in the US see any expression of self interest or identity as Nazism.

    defeating America and smashing any sense of American identity or resolve was the goal of that “Nazi” hunting campaign. always keep it in the media, always talk about it. make it the central event of human history. educate every school kid on it.

    once Trump is out of office, that goal will have been achieved and America 1.0 will have been successfully destroyed. no such further campaign will be necessary.

    enemy defeated, the KKKrazy glue that keeps the Democrats together will then start to fray. Democrats may pursue defeated Republicans after 2021 in a helter skelter manner as a mop up operation, but it won’t be in the same spirit or any kind of coordinated attack. triumphant and victorious vibrant “Americans” don’t care about that stuff. europeans will have be routed, that’s all they care about. the campaign to prosecute europeans for being europeans is a very Jewish thing that the other Democrats don’t share or want to spend time and energy on. all the vibrants care about is taking our country and our stuff and making us pay for it. they’ll have that. actually going after Republicans is too much like work, and they aren’t interested in working.

  44. Arclight says:

    It’s easy to tell someone who reaches you by phone that you support this guy or that guy, it’s a different matter to get off the couch and show up at a polling station or remember to mail in your ballot on time.

    It is possible Trump loses, but I also think this is the best Biden will ever look – he hasn’t been in public for a great while and even Dems concede his interviews and statements online are not great. Over the next 6 months the odds are very high that he has repeated moments that go viral of him dozing off, speaking incoherently, etc. This will probably dull whatever enthusiasm current Biden voters have and there are probably millions of people who if reached by phone would tell an interviewer they support Biden, but aren’t going to actually vote in November.

    It’s possible he still has enough people who do bother to vote to get over the finish line, but I am guessing that there will be more attrition in turnout for Biden over Trump since 2016 and that will save Trump’s bacon, barely.

  45. @A123

    Wow, so many white people gathered together with a common goal. So much white anger. No wonder this scares the heck out of the elites.

    Of course, Orange Man soothes this anger, then gives tax cuts to wall street and more aid to Israel. He throws his base a bone like a “60 day green card ban” and “100 miles of border fence”.

    • Replies: @A123
  46. A123 says:
    @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    Given that Trump has Jewish family, White Nationalists revile him.

    Trump has improved GOP favorability with both male blacks and male hispanics. Bernie’s vision of pajama wearing snowflakes, living in their parent’s basements are a turn off to these groups.

    Pro-War SJW Globalist DNC irrationality is scaring large numbers of voters into the Independent and Red camps. The pollsters intentionally do not see it, because they are paid to ask deliberately misleading questions.

    PEACE 😷

    • Replies: @Cloudbuster
    , @Anonymous
  47. Rosie says:
    @Brian Reilly

    Please write any other actually possible scenaris. I don’t see any for the Dems. No Bernie, Fauxcahontas, Mikey, Kasich, Klobachar, or Gabbard (who is actually the fittest of the litter by far) will be aceptable to the DIE Dems. So Good Luck!!

    The Dems have the exact same problem the Republicans have: finding a candidate that will be acceptable to both the voters and the donors, and yes, that may save Trump. I find this very unfortunate, because all it does is reinforce the idea that White voters can be taken for granted.

  48. @Rosie

    Lady Nancy Astor: “Winston, if you were my husband, I’d put poison in your coffee.”
    Winston Churchill: “Nancy, if you were my wife, I’d drink it.”

    • Replies: @Rosie
  49. @A123

    Claims which can be made without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.

    • Replies: @A123
  50. @res

    Bernie Sanders had more enthusiastic rallies than Clinton or Biden. He lost both times.

  51. A123 says:
    @Alexander Turok

    Claims which can be made without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.

    This is a step forward. You finally understand why everyone dismisses your baseless, evidence free claims.

    Congratulations on making personal progress.

    PEACE 😷

  52. @A123

    Given that Trump has Jewish family, White Nationalists revile him.

    Not all White Nationalists are anti-Semitic. Many of us wish them well … in their own nationalist country.

  53. @Intelligent Dasein

    Only the most motivated and competent people will put themselves through that ordeal, and they will be—by a slim majority—Trump voters.

    Trump voters were in 2016 only very slightly smarter than Clinton voters. Considering Trumpers have spent the last two months attacking science, often explicitly saying they don’t trust it, and courting the crackpot crowd, I’d wager that will be reversed by November. The Dems will still have an edge on the really stupid crowd though.

    The Democrats will spin this into a narrative that Trump “supressed” the minority/poor/immigrant/homeless/junky/black/hispanic/transsexual/female vote

    What “narrative?” It seems like suppressing those voters is exactly what you say will happen. I guess you could say that yes, I want to do X and yes, that will benefit my party, but it’s a big f***ing coincidence, right? Here’s an idea, why not trying to actually appeal to some of those voters? Sure, some just want a handout, but not all. Even with the homeless, a big part of that problem could be solved by legalizing flophouses. It’d be a win-win, the homeless get a better place to live and normal people don’t have to deal with them camping in the parks. Though win-win solutions like that wouldn’t allow you to signal how “based” you are.

  54. Yahya K. says:
    @Rosie

    Envy-driven consumption generates economic growth.

    Bernard Mandeville’s The Fable of The Bees: or, Private Vices, Publick Benefits (1714):

    A Spacious Hive well stock’d with Bees,
    That lived in Luxury and Ease;
    And yet as fam’d for Laws and Arms,
    As yielding large and early Swarms;
    Was counted the great Nursery        5
    Of Sciences and Industry.
    No Bees had better Government,
    More Fickleness, or less Content.
    They were not Slaves to Tyranny,
    Nor ruled by wild Democracy;        10
    But Kings, that could not wrong, because
    Their Power was circumscrib’d by Laws.

    The “hive” is corrupt but prosperous, yet it grumbles about lack of virtue. A higher power decides to give them what they ask for:

    But Jove, with Indignation moved,
    At last in Anger swore, he’d rid       230
    The bawling Hive of Fraud, and did.
    The very Moment it departs,
    And Honesty fills all their Hearts;

    This results in a rapid loss of prosperity, though the newly virtuous hive does not mind:

    For many Thousand Bees were lost.
    Hard’ned with Toils, and Exercise
    They counted Ease it self a Vice;
    Which so improved their Temperance;    405
    That, to avoid Extravagance,
    They flew into a hollow Tree,
    Blest with Content and Honesty.

    The poem ends in a famous phrase:

    Bare Virtue can’t make Nations live
    In Splendor; they, that would revive
    A Golden Age, must be as free,
    For Acorns, as for Honesty.

  55. Are you now or have you ever been a supporter of Donald J. Trump?

    Deplorables need plausible deniability. The Deep State hears EVERY word you say. How do pollsters adjust for MAGA in the closet?

    The so called left loves the lock down in theory. By November will they still love the lock down in practice? Blue State dictators in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia are in trouble at home.

    AG Barr and company don’t seem inclined to actually indite anybody. But we have a steady drumbeat of revelations and Ms. Lindsey is promising many subpoenas before the election. Can the media really ignore all that testimony?

    Joe Biden is not Trump. That is the ONLY thing he has going for him.

    When it comes to the 2020 presidential election I trust the gamblers more than I trust the pollsters.

  56. Virus response:

    1. On deaths per population the USA as a whole is doing comparable to other European countries.
    2. The USA minus NYC is doing better than many countries, about on par with Switzerland
    3. Democrat governors ordered infected seniors out of hospitals and ordered them back into nursing homes, which is about 75% of deaths
    4. Perception is reality, and same blue state governors have the entire establishment media machine running air support to create perception that their response has been good and Trump has been a disaster

    Absolute losers posting “muh GOP will never win another election again”:

    1. All a GOP presidential candidate has to do is tack left on economics and resist moving left on drag queen story hour, etc. Do this and the GOP can easily win elections even (OR ESPECIALLY) as the hispanic population rises.
    2. If the GOP does not do this, then it doesn’t matter whether they win or not, because their platform will be garbage.
    3. Shut up

    • Replies: @nebulafox
  57. MBlanc46 says:
    @A123

    They don’t need to fabricate millions of ballots, because they only require a few tens of thousands of votes in PA, MI and WI.

    • Replies: @A123
  58. MBlanc46 says:
    @prime noticer

    I think that they’re in too deep to back off after the election. They’ll be looking for revenge, and not just against Trump.

    • Agree: HammerJack
  59. Anonymous[299] • Disclaimer says:
    @A123

    WNs were mostly fine with Trump’s Jewish family before he became President.

    WNs are, like everyone on the anti-establishment Right, divided on the question of Trump by intelligence. Whenever there is a primary challenger to one of these anti-establishment Republicans, Trump almost without exception endorses the establishment republican. To believe that Trump is opposing the establishment Republicans requires a certain lack of intelligence that few leading WNs posses.

  60. Anonymous[299] • Disclaimer says:
    @Cloudbuster

    Group X is impossible to please is something you say after you’ve done a lot in an attempt to please them. Trump’s done nothing. If Trump was actually delivering, I’d be right there with you telling people that voting on his personality is madness. But he isn’t. He’s running on the Trump brand and if women find him a borrish asshat, I’ve got nothing against them.

  61. A123 says:
    @MBlanc46

    They don’t need to fabricate millions of ballots, because they only require a few tens of thousands of votes in PA, MI and WI.

    I hope you correctly anticipate feeble DNC efforts. When they only cheat by 10,000’s and the vote swings by 100,000’s in angry lockdown states like PA, MI and WI, the vote fraud will fail.

    Biden is awful as a candidate. There is no way for Dems to identify how weak and precisely where in advance. So, they are stuck trying massive fraud in multiple locations in the millions of ballots. And, if even one case of fraud is detected, this goes to the courts.
    ____

    Did you catch today’s news? (1)

    The US Attorney’s Office in Philadelphia obtained a guilty plea from a Democratic Party elections judge, who admitted to taking bribes to stuff ballot boxes in favor of Democratic candidates in 2014, 2015 and 2016.

    According to the Department of Justice, 73-year-old Domenick J. DeMuro was indicted for “conspiracy to deprive Philadelphia voters of their civil rights by fraudulently stuffing the ballot boxes for specific Democratic candidates,” as well as violating the Travel Act, which “forbids the use of any facility in interstate commerce (here, a cell phone) with the intent to promote certain illegal activity (here, bribery).”

    PEACE 😷
    _______

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/political/democratic-party-official-admits-he-took-bribes-stuff-ballot-boxes

    • Replies: @MBlanc46
  62. nebulafox says:
    @Not My Economy

    >1. All a GOP presidential candidate has to do is tack left on economics and resist moving left on drag queen story hour, etc. Do this and the GOP can easily win elections even (OR ESPECIALLY) as the hispanic population rises.

    Exactly what I’ve been saying all along.

    Now, tell me: after what you’ve seen over the last few years, do you think there is remotely a chance in hell Donald Trump is going to do this?

  63. nebulafox says:
    @anonymous

    Apart from Biden’s nepotism involving his FailSon being open knowledge, Biden has been recorded at earning over 15 million dollars after leaving the Vice Presidency from the Washington Post (not exactly a source hostile to the Democrats), and his ties to Goldman Sachs, Google, etc are pretty well documented. It’s standard issue iron triangle stuff. “Not being more corrupt than Trump or Hillary” != not corrupt.

    For what it is worth, I’ve never disliked Joe Biden in the way I’ve come to truly despise some other politicos (McConnell, Hillary Clinton) from that generation: more or less always considered him your standard issue post-Watergate grifter whose grifting got more explicit in the 1990s, certainly not clean, but not the most egregious offender around. As annoyed as I am by the corruption, though, that’s not the deepest issue: his mental acuity at his age is every bit as much an open guess as Trump’s. At best, he’s going to be malleable, and he’s going to be surrounded by the Democratic equivalents of Kushner and Mnuchin. He’s not exactly what America needs right now, any more than Trump.

  64. They’ll continue to pursue him and his family to discourage any other billionaire with unconventional political views and aspirations. He should issue a blanket pardon for himself, his family and all political appointees of his administration. But that won’t protect him against state charges so perhaps a refuge in Slovenia is a good Plan B.

  65. dfordoom says: • Website
    @nebulafox

    Two little hacks I’m trying to implement: wait 1 minute before buying anything not on the schedule compiled earlier that day, and record every transaction you make throughout the day on a small pad of paper. You’d be stunned what that does.

    Keeping track of everything you spend is an incredibly good idea. It’s tiresome but it’s worth it.

    • Replies: @iffen
  66. iffen says:
    @dfordoom

    Keeping track of everything you spend is an incredibly good idea. It’s tiresome but it’s worth it.

    Ah, yes, a life spent pinching and counting pennies is Heaven on earth.

    • Replies: @dfordoom
  67. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Almost Missouri

    He says he feels like a chump. It’s hard to disagree. He did all that deferred gratification and saving for the future, but it just got taken by others for their gratification and future, while he got stuck with their bills.

    That’s definitely a problem. Deferred gratification and saving for the future don’t bring the same rewards that they brought half a century ago. People look around them and it seems like the folks who’ve gone for instant gratification and not saving for the future are better off.

  68. dfordoom says: • Website
    @iffen

    Keeping track of everything you spend is an incredibly good idea. It’s tiresome but it’s worth it.

    Ah, yes, a life spent pinching and counting pennies is Heaven on earth.

    What it actually means is that you end up spending less on dumb stuff so you have more money to buy yourself really nice things. It’s not a matter of being penny-pinching, it’s a matter of spending your money on things that really give you pleasure. You actually end up with more money to indulge yourself.

    But you do need to be able to think more than thirty seconds ahead.

    • Replies: @iffen
  69. @Rosie

    “You can’t make women happy.”

    Medieval German peasants worked that one out.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fisherman_and_His_Wife

    • Replies: @Rosie
  70. iffen says:
    @dfordoom

    Matthew 6
    19 Lay not up for yourselves treasures on earth, where moth and rust does corrupt, and where thieves break through and steal: 20 But lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust does corrupt, and where thieves do not break through nor steal: 21 For where your treasure is, there will your heart be also.

    I think that we have a mix of short-term and long-term time preference. Most of us are near the middle with the rest bell curved toward one pole or the other. If I understand evolution correctly, the variation should be a continuum because sometimes one approach is optimal and sometimes the other.

    • Replies: @dfordoom
  71. dfordoom says: • Website
    @iffen

    I think that we have a mix of short-term and long-term time preference. Most of us are near the middle with the rest bell curved toward one pole or the other. If I understand evolution correctly, the variation should be a continuum because sometimes one approach is optimal and sometimes the other.

    That’s true of course. But whether you’re talking short-term or long-term time preference it still helps to think first and to think carefully. Sometimes going for short-term pleasure is the best thing to do, but it’s wise to think first. Some short-term pleasures are worth every bit of the cost, and some aren’t. This even applies to delayed gratification – you should make sure the gratification you’re delaying is going to be worth the wait.

    But maybe I’m just a strange mixture of impulsiveness and caution. I agonise over spending decisions but I still spend pretty freely. I love spending but I’m not rich enough to do it without thinking about it, and I like to know where my money goes to.

    My SO hates shopping with me. I obsess over saving money by buying generic brands and looking for the specials and then with the money I’ve saved I’ll buy something ridiculously extravagant (but it’s something we really want).

  72. Rosie says:
    @YetAnotherAnon

    “You can’t make women happy.”

    Medieval German peasants worked that one out.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fisherman_and_His_Wife

    Well if a children’s folk tale says so, It must be God’s honest truth. Meanwhile, in the real world, we all know damned well that men are far more greedy and acquisitive than women, and more obsessed with status, too.

  73. Lowe says:
    @indocon

    If Biden’s team wants him to win, Abrams is a poor choice. Good choices include Val Demings, Klobuchar, or Warren. Harris might be okay.

    If you look in the press, other names are floated too, but those others are bad choices. The idea is to pick a known winner who projects gravitas, not some divisive person who excites SJWs.

    • Replies: @Cloudbuster
  74. @Lowe

    The idea that a bunch of mediocrities like that are suitable to be next in line for the presidency behind a demented degenerate is sad.

  75. Lowe says:
    @Almost Missouri

    Whether he is a chump depends on whether the woman gave him any children, before ruining him.

    No children and he’s a chump. Even one child, and it was worth it. Two or more, and he definitely got the best of it.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
  76. Lot says:
    @prime noticer

    “Democrats may consider going after the last few Republicans as an essential mop up operation.”

    If you want to see what the American left does with complete power, look at the colleges they run. Speech codes, mandatory anti-white indoctrination, renaming and erasing symbols of their founders, whites banned from “POC spaces” and certain dorms, secret trials for “date rapists,” large numbers of fake make-work jobs reserved for leftists with postgraduate degrees.

    To a lessor degree, the same thing is happening in giant corporations with safe monopolies. “Mop up operation” is the extract phrase I used for purges of conservatives at universities and people like James Damore.

    • Agree: Almost Missouri
  77. Ximenes says:
    @Daniel H

    The proles are riled up– about the lockdowns. This issue is a godsend for Trump. Today the Catholic church is lining up with Trump against the Dem governors. Who could have imagined it?

    • Replies: @dfordoom
  78. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Ximenes

    The proles are riled up– about the lockdowns.

    Is it actually the proles who are riled up? I don’t know, I’m just asking. How many of the protestors are actual proles?

  79. @nebulafox

    Two little hacks I’m trying to implement: wait 1 minute before buying anything not on the schedule compiled earlier that day, and record every transaction you make throughout the day on a small pad of paper. You’d be stunned what that does.

    I dunno, it sounds risky, like giving up booze. You might forget your reason for living.

  80. @indocon

    I thought that the economy usually makes the difference. If unemployment is 10% on election day – is there really any precedent for winning an election as an incumbent? I don’t see why the senate wouldn’t also flip in that scenario

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
  81. Dr. Doom says:

    All of you underestimate how DUMB Joe Biden really is…

    He has many mistakes yet to make.

    His party is an angry hive of scum and villainy.

    They CANNOT please the crazy quilt they got.

    Whomever the VP is, they will lose more votes than gain.

    Never Trump is Always a LOSER.

  82. @krustykurmudgeon

    If unemployment is 10% on election day – is there really any precedent for winning an election as an incumbent?

    FDR 1936 and 1940.

    • Replies: @krustykurmudgeon
  83. @Lowe

    One. And yes, he has explicitly said that made it worth it.

    But sheesh, this is no way to run a country.

  84. @MattinLA

    The swing-voters-in-battleground-states polls are a weird innovation. They make for good media coverage but they don’t provide much predictive information.

  85. @Almost Missouri

    true but the unemployment then was lower than it was in 1932. The unemployment rate in 2020 would be higher than it was in 2016.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
  86. @Intelligent Dasein

    It’s clear that Democrats are fearful of and worry about coronavirus far more than Republicans do at this point. Will that still be the case in five months? If so and in-person voting happens, that could be one way Trump pulls off the upset.

  87. @anon

    Biden continues to gaffe, probably more frequently than before though he has always done so, but he’s not the bumbling trainwreck he’s often made out to be. He can function fine for a couple of hours in a debate.

    • Replies: @res
  88. res says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    He can function fine for a couple of hours in a debate.

    Even with Trump making an effort to get under his skin? My big question is how will Biden do if he has to think on his feet? I suspect the debates will be intentionally structured to minimize how much he needs to do that.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
  89. @krustykurmudgeon

    Okay agreed, but then unemployment in 1940 was barely lower than 1936 and had FDR not just reinstated the draft, it would have been noticeably worse. And even back in the 1930s, public officials were already learning to cook the books to get the numbers they wanted to pass to their friendly media.

    Well, long story short: if you’re the Prez going into an election, you don’t want a) high unemployment, or b) things on a downward spiral.

    Right now, Trump’s got both. Five months to the election.

    Dem media talkers can barely conceal their glee. There’s a bull market in schadenfreude.

    • Replies: @indocon
  90. MBlanc46 says:
    @A123

    The DNC probably won’t be the ones doing the stealing. It will be done by the likes of my lot, the Cook County Regular Democratic Organization. They’re so good at it that there practically aren’t Repubs here any more.

  91. indocon says:
    @Almost Missouri

    Trends are Trends until they are not a trend, until 2012 I believe no president had won reelection in modern era when unemployment was over 8%, Obama broke that. With the stock market roaring and lots of money being thrown around especially at unemployment programs, I do think Trump can pull this out against Biden, the question on our side should be do we want him to do that? Are we not setting ourselves for a perfect repeat of 2004 election where W’s created issues caught up big time and gave us Obama. In Trump’s second term, Israel could annex rest of West Bank creating an unnecessary and permanent war with the Muslim world, Indian temporary workers would keep coming in unabated, no real manufacturing rebound, nonstop daily noise for all of us to deal with, and a bubble that will pop in his second term resulting in President Kamala, VP Stacey, Senate Majority Leader Corey Booker, and House Speaker Clyburn in 2024!!!!!

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