Five years ago the US Census, in an announcement that was joyfully picked up by a host of media outlets, announced that non-Hispanic white (from hereon just “white”) births constituted a minority of all births in the US for the first time ever.
The claim came from the annual population estimates the bureau produces every non-decennial year, in this instance from 2011. They announced that whites constituted 49.6% of all births that year. With estimation comes error, and the Census appeared to miss the mark by several points.
HHS, which tallies all reported live births for each calendar year and releases them in late Spring the following year, shows that the Census report from five years ago claiming that whites made up fewer than half of all births has yet to go through the formality of actually occurring.
The following chart shows the racial birth distribution for 2015, the latest year for which there is complete data:
That’s 0.3 points closer to giving truth to the Census estimates than in 2014 when whites made up 54.0% of all births, and also virtually unchanged from 2007, when whites constituted 53.5% of all births. As far as natural population increase is concerned, we’re nearly holding the line.
That’ll be for naught in the face of a continual stream of reinforcements for the other side in the form of foreign-born settlers calling our country their own, of course.
Still, to falsely believe that things are worse than they actually are runs the risk of perpetuating an avoidable self-fulfilling prophecy. We’re not licked yet.
A simple (if not easily realizable) three-part prescription to effectively treat the National Question:
1) A moratorium on immigration
2) The repatriation of non-citizens
3) An increase in native fertility to at least replacement
Of related interest, the subsequent map shows in white the states where white births make up over 50% of all births. White births make up less than 50% of all births in the states shaded brown:
Politically, Arizona, Georgia, Florida, and especially Texas are swords of Damacles’ hanging over the GOP. Effectively addressing the National Question is the preferred way to remove the blades from the rafters. Barring that, the Sailer Strategy that Trump executed successfully in 2016–flipping the mostly white upper Midwestern states red–is the only other viable alternative to permanent Democrat rule at the national level.
For those interested in the state-by-state differences, the following 51 pie charts depict the same at the state level as the graph presented above does for the country as a whole: