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++Addition++With 98% of the votes counted, Trump is going to win Kenosha by about 3 points. The answer to the Rittenhouse question, then, would appear to be “no”.

In 2016, Trump won the county by less than one point. As this is typed, he is winning it by 30 points with nearly half the expected total in.

Did Kyle Rittenhouse win Trump a second term?

Is this blogger eating crow for predicting a Biden win? Were a slew of commenters correct in calling BS? Give it to me good and hard. Never take a prediction I make seriously again, just come for the data we present!

 
• Category: Culture/Society • Tags: Election 2020 
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  1. t says:

    I still think Biden will win narrowly. Pennsylvania is going to be a mess.

  2. t says:

    Another important thing to remember when following results is that different states report mail-in votes differently, in some the mail-in votes end up getting reported first in others they are counted last. I know in PA they go in last not sure about WI.

  3. A123 says:

    The % reporting may be highly misleading. That could be for votes cast today.

    In 2016 Kenosha was nearly tied at 36K each, total 72K.

    In 2020 the current count shows Kenosha 95% reporting:
    — 27K — Trump
    — 15K — Biden

    That is a huge drop of 72K versus 42K (down 40%). I have a hard time believing that the # of voters dropped that much.
    ___

    Something seems off in the Wisconsin numbers as a whole, and my guess it is due to mail-in ballots.

    PEACE 😇

  4. Jay Fink says:

    It’s still early but so far I am pleased. It looks like a repeat of 2016. Arizona looks like the only state that might flip blue.

  5. t says:

    Prop 16 is losing, granted if it’s close we won’t know who won until Christmas:

  6. Look at the district by district totals for house races, AE. I noticed two flips from R to D, and at least 7 flips from D to R, at least races where incumbents are behind. It looks like two NYC-area districts will go R fromD, which means that even though the Presidential election was never going to be contested here, the turnout driven by Trump might have reduced the D headcount in the House.

    Arizona now majority-D in House races, with a flip there. What happened in AZ?

  7. I was wrong, they are just stealing it the old fashioned way

    PA, MI, WI all say no results for a few days… …. okay…

    • Agree: Chrisnonymous
  8. Jay Fink says:
    @TomSchmidt

    Huge Hispanic population and tons of California transplants.

    • Agree: Cauchemar du Singe
    • Replies: @LondonBob
  9. Dr. Doom says:

    Your data comes from bad sources. GIGO is the problem.

    Those that fund these pollsters want a certain result and get it.

    Science this is not. Just shinola and payola.

    Biden hopes to still steal this election with “found votes”.

    Its SOP for the Democrats to find trash bags full of votes.

    I predict a Civil War will be the result of these kind of shenanigans.

    Will you bet against it now?

  10. Anon[182] • Disclaimer says:

    Trump may win or he may lose, but polls aren’t data. You are too smart not to have known this.

  11. Twinkie says:

    Never take a prediction I make seriously again

    The future is stochastic, and there are many, many contingent factors that shape its course.

    Don’t play the prediction game. You can act like a genius when you are right once or twice, but Fate is liable to teach you humility for those moments of Hybris. By all means, present those contingent factors that you think are important and how they may weigh the outcomes, but don’t make definitive pronouncements – only God knows the future and those mortals who claim to see it clearly are fools, crazies, frauds, or some combination thereof.

    As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

    In that vein, let me repeat what I wrote earlier: https://www.unz.com/anepigone/polling-and-prediction-markets-on-2020-election-eve/#comment-4260460

    I am not in the prognostication game (and find it foolish), but I see two major possibilities here.

    One, the polls will be more accurate as modelers learned their lessons from 2016, in which case Trump loses badly.

    Two, Trump voters are even more “shy” than last time, given the relentless demonization in the media and the institutional society at large, and thus polls are even wider off the mark than in 2016, in which case Trump has a very good chance of winning.

    We’ll find out. I will say one other thing: if it turned out that the pollsters were wrong again, there is going to be (aside from the usual gnashing of teeth about Americans being “secret racists!”) some reckoning about the media.

    I surely hope so.

    No matter what the outcome, it does seem that the pollsters were badly off again and ought to face some reckoning.

  12. “Will you bet against it now?”

    I vote against it.

    I am not sure what went down in Az. But I do know this, I sent my entire ballot in via registered mail. I don’t buy the mantra that democrat voted early as a rule. I am dubious and the extent of COVID. And given the poll predictions — in a legitimate race, the current executive wins and does so convincingly.

    And while violence is out of the question — under these circumstances,there’s every reason to doubt the results, should the executive lose.

  13. LondonBob says:
    @Jay Fink

    Much will be made of ethnic European Latinos in Florida voting Trump but by and large looks like a repeat of 2016, just the demographic shift is seen more clearly in Arizona and Georgia, whilst the rust belt stays white. Crazy the vote share for Trump in SW Virginia, issue is how to replicate that elsewhere.

    Still remarkable achievement for Trump, given the all out warfare against him.

  14. Never take a prediction I make seriously again, just come for the data we present!

    It’s relying on data that led you astray in the first place. No survey can possibly capture all relevant factors; you’ll always be flying blind. (To say nothing of incompetence, poor methodology, and outright lies on the part of pollsters.)

  15. Twinkie says:

    The lead just flipped in WI. Biden now leads by 0.3% as of 4:48 EST.

    Trump has to win the remaining four states he currently leads: MI, PA, NC, and GA. As close as the votes are in the latter two, they are almost all counted (95% and 92%, respectively, in NC and GA), so I think Trump is likely to maintain the lead.

    Michigan is 77% votes in, with Trump up 5% (about 235K votes). I think this, too, is a nearly insurmountable lead.

    That leaves PA. About half of PA mail-in ballots uncounted so far? With a quarter of the estimated total votes left, Trump leads by about 680K votes. I think Trump should still win, but I have no clue what the composition of the mail-in ballots is. Ordinarily this would be a shoe-in, but the current situation (esp. with mail-in ballots) is unprecedented, so who knows?

    There is ample room for skullduggery in all four, but I think the most obvious one would be, paradoxically given the largest Trump lead of the four, in PA.

    It would be most amusing, and just deserts, if Scranton, PA put the final dagger in Joe Biden’s political life.

  16. Dumbo says:

    It looks now like I was wrong and Biden and the Demon Rats will win, by hook or crook.

    White people are f**ked. Expect more wars in the Middle East, Europe flooded with refugees, and even more explicit COVID tyranny. It’s a disaster of epic proportions.

    The end times are near! Repent.

  17. Nodwink says:
    @Dumbo

    What will Biden do, though? My impression (from Australia) is that Gropey is going to sit in the White House and do fuck-all for four years.

  18. Jay Fink says:

    AEs prediction could turn out to be correct afterall unfortunately. We are losing WI now and MI has just gotten a lot closer. They saved Detroit for last. If Trump loses MI it’s President Biden (and soon to be President Harris).

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
  19. @Dumbo

    White people carried Joe to victory.

    • Replies: @fnn
    , @Achmed E. Newman
  20. Jay Fink says:

    The Democrats on my Facebook are bummed at how close the election was. What caught my attention is their emphasis on racism. “I can’t believe half the country is racist”. Everyone piled on. It was all “racism racism racism”. No talk whatsoever of economic populism.

  21. LondonBob says:

    Explain why Trump lost that Nebraska point, that is where the issue is, we know why Arizona, Georgia are drifting.

    • Replies: @Jay Fink
  22. Jay Fink says:
    @LondonBob

    Isn’t that Omaha? It’s not as white as you may think it is. Any city that is even remotely cosmopolitan votes Dem.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
  23. fnn says:
    @Supply and Demand

    White people too mentally damaged to realize they were voting for endless riots at home and war with Russia.

  24. @Dumbo

    Republicans hold the senate. It will be two years, if Harris wins, before the apocalypse.

  25. LondonBob says:
    @Jay Fink

    That bad even in Nebraska now?

    Looking at Georgia and Michigan blexit clearly didn’t happen, establishment commentators have published all their Trump wins thanks to ethnic voters articles already here, amusingly enough. I guess ethnic Spanish from Cuba and Venezuela know what happens when the Amerindians and blacks takeover, not really the same as they wish to claim.

    I await better analysis from more knowledgeable folk but seems Trump held his white rural and working class vote, made no progress in the suburbs, did a little better with ‘hispanics’ whilst doing the same with blacks. Given the demographic shift in four years just not enough

  26. Yep on schedule with what i thought

    Late ballots will be found in mi to flip it, then ga, then NC, and eventually they will just steal pa.

    Dont you realize the dnc/ccp are literally all in. They just need to steal this one thing then shut everythint else down.

  27. anonymous[126] • Disclaimer says:

    With 100% of Kenosha County now reporting

    Donald Trump 50.8%
    Joe Biden 47.7%

    In 2016

    Hillary: 46.9%
    Trump: 47.2%

    Really strange. I guess white people don’t find racial rioting encouraged by Democrats as repugnant as we all thought. Perhaps white conservative America has come to believe that sometimes it deserves a whipping at the hands of blacks to atone for the original sin of 1619.

  28. I debated posting, but it seems it is already happening

    Dems are cheating to try and win, and we will stop them. How dare you overlook this perfidy of the Democrats, when they even announced their strategy weeks ahead of the election to prepare the way. Even more imagination is needed

    Of course, I always expected them to cheat. Theoretically there exists a possibility that this is not the case, but given the nature of the true believers, the party machine,and the Deep State, I wouldn’t bet on it.

    Their efforts must be disrupted now. They will not succeed.

    We will crush them. This will be our gift, to future generations

    • Replies: @Supply and Demand
  29. t says:

    As of 7:21 central time:

    California

    Biden: 7,728,329 votes
    Trump 3,898,683

    Prop 16

    Yes 5,011,876
    No 6,388,744

    2.5 million people voted for Biden and against affirmative action, maybe the GOP should try to win those people over. There are still about 4 million votes out, that means yes will need to win 2/3 of them to win.

  30. t says:

    I think the Biden with a Republican Senate might be better for an America First agenda than 4 years of Trump. The GOP is too Reaganite and that won’t change as long as they control the White House, a Biden Presidency will lead Republican gains in 2022 and a time for an America First agenda to gain steam.

  31. @Difference maker

    Just punched in at Langley, have we?

    • Replies: @Difference maker
  32. LondonBob says:

    Surprised Joe managed this level of enthusiasm. I guess if there were fraud I would look at this first.

    • Replies: @Jay Fink
  33. @Supply and Demand

    Hey, that was one of your few correct comments, S&D. I agree. Some people under iSteve posts have been saying that the “Sailer Strategy”, meaning concentrating on the white vote, has been debunked. I say BS and will have a Peak Stupidity post out on this today, but don’t hold me to it.

    If Trump had gotten just 5% more white people (likely discouraged from such things as giving away $500,000,000,000 of their money directly to black people) had come out to vote, this would be pretty much a blow-out, electoral-vote-speaking.

    • Replies: @Supply and Demand
  34. @Achmed E. Newman

    Thank you for your kind words, Mr. Newman.

    • LOL: Achmed E. Newman
  35. @Twinkie

    pollsters were badly off again and ought to face some reckoning.

    There was no reckoning against pollsters in 2016 and there won’t be today, because pollsters’ job is not to predict elections. Their job is to create plausibility space for Dem cheating. And they did their job in both elections. But in 2016 the Dem cheaters thought it was already in the bag so they took the year off. This year the cheaters are following through.

  36. @TomSchmidt

    ANSWER:
    Demographics Are Destiny.

  37. res says:
    @Almost Missouri

    I think in 2016 they just misjudged how much fraud was needed. Like the way they shut MI down after realizing it would not be enough even if flipped.

    This time there are plenty of states close enough to tip if necessary (and with thought provoking reticence about making calls for them). It will be interesting to see how many do flip in the final count. It looks like WI and MI (your plots) should be enough so they don’t really need to flip them, but maybe TPTB think Biden needs more of a mandate than a squeaker victory would imply.

    At this point I think the interesting question is: What does Trump do? My guess is try to find compelling evidence of fraud somewhere.

    P.S. Article about 2016 and MI, WI, and PA recounts.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/07/us-election-recount-halted-michigan-jill-stein

  38. Octavian says: • Website
    @Almost Missouri

    Uncanny how nature does that.

    __________________________

    These images should be as twin buckets of ice water over the heads anyone harboring lofty sentiments about the integrity of American elections.

    Should the former vice-president navigate his way into the White House, it will only be as the Pretender, the False-Dmitri, the Fake President.

  39. Mr Epigone says:

    Did Kyle Rittenhouse win Trump a second term?

    I say:

    Rittenhouse ain’t old enough to vote to my knowledge, although he tripoded himself pretty good when he needed a stable platform on his can to defend himself.

    What is the final count or best estimate on the final count of White Core American Gentlemen Voters is a question to be answered in the coming days and weeks.

  40. Jay Fink says:
    @LondonBob

    Biden voters had no enthusiasm for Biden. They had high turnout because they are consumed with hatred towards Trump. The MSM has been in an anti-Trump stupor his entire term. Many people were influenced by this. TDS is a real thing.

  41. Steve Sailer’s appellation CONQUISTADOR-AMERICAN explains the so-called “hispanic” or “latino” swing to Trump and some guy on the internet says the Amerindians and Mestizos on the Rio don’t like the BLM crud and they abandoned Biden.

    Tweet from 2017:

    I wrote this in 2019:

    The Mexican ruling class is vile, but viler still is the JEW/WASP ruling class of the American Empire.

    Where is that Canadian DUMMY with the cocaine boogers to sing about Cortez and the Conquistadors?

    Calling them CONQUISTADORS is good stuff, but we’ll never get any Republican Party politician with enough balls to call them that.

    I called them Spaniards and Peninsular Spaniards. Peninsulares is another one.

    None of them have the rhetorical pop of CONQUISTADORS.

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/mexican-foreign-minister-swears-by-the-blue-blood-of-his-conquistador-ancestors-to-crush-white-supremacy-in-america/#comment-3464010

    Tweet from 2015:

  42. Jay Fink says:

    I continue to be amazed that my 50% Hispanic county in WA state still votes Red. Although the margin was down Trump won my county by 3 points and Republicans swept across the board for Governor, Congress and other offices. The exact opposite of what the state did as a whole.

    I can’t think of anywhere else where the most ethnic part of the state votes more Republican than the state it’s located in. This is because whites are almost uniformly Republican here ( we have bad whites while the much higher populated Seattle metro has good whites), Hispanics have low voter turnout and a sizable number of English speaking Hispanics who grew up here have similar political opinions as the whites in the area.

  43. Were Thomm, Intelligent Dasein, and a slew of other commenters correct in calling BS?

    Sadly, at the moment it appears not. This is a very bad turn of events. The country is in serious trouble if this result holds. While I am certainly not happy about being wrong, it would be rather cold comfort to be right about this.

    I wish I had something more to offer. This just isn’t good.

  44. Never take a prediction I make seriously again, just come for the data we present!

    I didn’t think that your prediction was meant to be serious. I thought that you were just posting it for fun.

    Nevertheless, at this hour, your prediction is looking fairly solid. It holds up better than mine, at any rate.

  45. @Intelligent Dasein

    There are only 3 solutions:

    – trump loses in court
    – trump wins in court
    – not suitable to print online but you can guess

    They are just making up numbers. Trump’s 2.6m ballots in Michigan and 3.2m in Pennsylvania are historic. Biden needs 2008 Obama levels of enthusiasm to beat Trump.

    They’ve given up on respectability – they stop the count and then come back with 100,000 votes going 100% for Biden. Might as well pick straws. It just happened in Nevada too.

    They are going for the hail mary + colour revolution- this time the USA domestics get the benefits not some 3rd world backwater across the ocean.

  46. anonymous[895] • Disclaimer says:
    @Intelligent Dasein

    The country will finally get to clam down. But there will be a higher rate of non-white immigration. So the tipping point of majority-minority will be reached sooner, maybe 2040.

  47. Is this blogger eating crow for predicting a Biden win?

    Not to worry: The Dems are still “finding” votes. 2018, when more than a few R Congressional district wins were flipped days after the election by ”found” ballots was a dress rehearsal for this.

  48. “Trump miscalculated stupendously with his ridiculous pandering attempts to left-voting demographics.”

    Dubious.

    The reason he may lost some white voters (male in this case)

    1. pandering to same sex conduct

    2. seeming ineffectively addressing immigration

    3. and he simply caved on too many issues early on.

    But even with that he still won the election. The turn COVID an the mail-in ballots, which in my view is probably where the fraud is located. The tell,

    the comments even before the election regarding democrats as mail ins — there was simply no way to tell how may of those were democrats vs republicans. There is no way to confirm whether the registered voters by mail are in act citizens and why every democratic governor pushed for the mail in ballots.

    On Fox News as even I could not beg off not watching the returns: the statistician make this interesting comment — that the votes would or would reflect the polls —-

    That was a stunning and telling admission because the polling data was just as incorrect this election as they were the previous.

    ——————————————–

    I suggest two other factors:

    1. the loss of support within the party for the current executive – via their disappointment in his tenure

    2. and the jump ship effect of republicans as part of the established system.

  49. @Intelligent Dasein

    I don’t think you were wrong. The results for Trump were stunning, and some of the numbers for Biden do look like fraud.

  50. Rosie says:

    It looks like I wasn’t far wrong. I predicted that working-class White women would punish Trump for his broken promises and cost him the election.

    WWC women did indeed sour on Trump, supporting him at “only” 60% rather than 67%. On the other hand, WWC men also soured on Trump, and, I believe, a little more.

    On the other hand, the gender gap among college Whites disappeared altogether, with about 50% of both groups voting for Trump. The loss of college White men to Biden was the coup de grace. Trump did nothing on H1Bs and frankly directly threatened this group with his talk of merit-based immigration reform, which would have been catastrophic for them.

    I suspect the increase in WMC women voting for Trump had to do with two things: (1) diminished feelings of shame in connection with voting for a “racist” who turned out to be no such thing, and (2) the riots.

    The relative weight of these factors, or any other factors, is entirely unknown.

    https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/11/politics/election-analysis-exit-polls-2016-2020/

    Of course, I think Trump actually won, but as I said over on Striker’s thread, it was close enough that they’ll get away with it, and no strapping young White men will take to the streets to rally for him after the Charlottesville fiasco and his failure to go to bat for his most enthusiastic supporters.

    • Thanks: V. K. Ovelund
    • Replies: @Twinkie
    , @Twinkie
  51. One obvious conclusion: many white voters are cucks.

  52. Twinkie says:
    @Intelligent Dasein

    I sincerely wish you weren’t wrong, but you were wrong about COVID and you were wrong to be so certain that Trump would win. Don’t confuse reality with your heart’s desires. And don’t think you have the crystal ball – no human being does.

    We can all cry about the Democrats’ shenanigans, but 1) they try it all the time and this isn’t new and 2) it’s on the GOP to watch for it, prevent it, and/or prove it.

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
  53. Twinkie says:
    @Chrisnonymous

    The results for Trump were stunning

    He outdid himself in many areas, but he also lost ground in others. Politics is a lot like prize-fighting. You can be the dignified good guy (“face” in pro wrestling lingo) or you can be a trash-talking, misbehaving “heel.” At the end of the day, you have to be able to fight well to last in the sport. Well, it’s like that with Trump. He did certain things very well (immigration did decline dramatically under his watch, he gave us three pretty conservative SCOTUS picks, etc.), but he fumbled on some crucial issues (most notably COVID, but also on gun control).

    Most importantly, he wasted the first two years when the GOP had a total control of the federal government (Obama achieved ACA with only two branches). He gave us a “tax cut,” but passed nothing of import when he had a huge mandate, largely because of poor personnel management and lack of personal discipline.

    Say what you will of the left, it does “shadow government” very well. Conservatism, Inc. is pretty good at it too, but populist-nationalists need to get much better at it to have a lasting influence on governance. Winning protest elections is not enough, populist-nationalists have to be able to win and then carry out meaningful, effective policies.

    I still maintain that Trump is a transitional figure. Even The Wall Street Journal is saying that even with a possible loss, the Trump electoral coalition has proved to be durable. With luck, he will have paved the way for a much more politically attractive and, God-willing, more effective populist-nationalist leader in the future.

    If not, well, I await for an American Franco.

    • Agree: Johann Ricke
    • Replies: @RSDB
  54. Is this blogger eating crow for predicting a Biden win? Were a slew of commenters correct in calling BS? Give it to me good and hard. Never take a prediction I make seriously again, just come for the data we present!

    You can look at the results in two ways. On the one hand, the polls were clearly not just wrong, but wrong to a significantly greater extent and in a similar direction as in 2016. The fact that the election looks like a toss-up rather than a Biden landslide can obviously can be construed as discrediting many forecasts…but on the other hand, it looks increasingly likely that Biden will still narrowly win. In that sense, the inference of many forecasters including AE that Biden was a favorite because he could survive a greater error than in 2016 seems potentially still valid. (And, as the 2012 election demonstrates, polling errors can cut both ways.)

    I think that prediction/betting on beliefs/skin in the game is extremely important (read the works of Philip Tetlock and Nassim Taleb, as well as the philosophers of science they reference, for more on this). Most pundits don’t do/have this, which makes their bloviations all so much breath in the wind. However, I find the fixation on accurately forecasting elections somewhat mystifying, because 1) I don’t see why it’s very important and 2) There are fundamental reasons why elections are hard to predict.

    On 1), I just don’t see why it matters that much to know who will win an election ahead of time. Sure, it matters—it often matters a great deal— who wins an election, but why does it matter if you predict the outcome beforehand? I guess making accurate predictions about elections is relevant to being confident that an electoral strategy will be successful, but that doesn’t seem to be how most people approach the topic. It seems more like, as AE wittily pointed out, an instance of the is-ought fallacy, in that people seem to think that their candidate winning an election is a key demonstration of their candidate deserving to win an election. But those seem to me to be two very different things.

    On 2), as Steve Sailer has pointed out, (democratic) politics naturally tends to polarize around roughly 50/50 lines. This is because what is almost constitutive of politics is the set of issues that voters are divided on. Opposing parties and politicians constantly adjust their positions to cross the 50% threshold, so parties naturally tend to shift up and down within a certain band. (Somewhat similarly, Sailer says, to sports and the stock market.) So it tends to inherently be somewhat hard to predict who will win elections.

    Furthermore, at least to my more philosophically-empiricist minded way of looking at the world, the essence of knowledge is usually experience/reference cases. (Which is why I have a Burkean/Chestertonian/Möserian appreciation for proven, long-standing traditions.) The more reference cases you have, the more confident you can be in induction based on them. US Presidential elections only happen once every 4 years, so there aren’t all that many datapoints to extrapolate from, so induction about their outcomes is difficult. (A point made by Zeynep Tufecki in a recent NYT essay.)

    By contrast, Sailer points out that he can extremely accurately predict, say, the rank order by race of SAT scores at most American high schools/school districts (i.e. Asian>white>Hispanic>black). That’s a prediction that I think has a lot of very important implications for the future of the US, yet people seem to find it less interesting than predicting the outcome of presidential elections.

    • Agree: Yahya K., Twinkie
    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @dfordoom
  55. @Supply and Demand

    My silly man

    Trump has won the election. The Democrats are merely cheating in hopes of stealing the election

    I like my first world society and am not interested in the war, crime, taxes, and (gay) totalitarianism of a Democrat administration.

    China may be doing well, but it is not my country. You are blinded by your wife’s ethnicity, which is only natural. If China can be like the Qin or the Tang dynasties then they will be worthy of admiration.

  56. @Chrisnonymous

    I don’t think you were wrong. The results for Trump were stunning, and some of the numbers for Biden do look like fraud.

    That’s what I mean. Trump obviously won the election. I never thought that the Democrats would be so blatant and obvious in their vote thievery and get away with it. If this happens—if this really happens—then we are living in a lawless land and things are going to get very scary.

    • Replies: @V. K. Ovelund
  57. I have not the God Emperor’s boundless energy and can only skim right now, but you guys give up too easily

    The correct frame is that Trump won and Dems are cheating. It should not be a surprise at all.

    Even if it may not be pleasant to contemplate. That is where my low neuroticism and low agreeability come in handy. And it seems I also tend to assume others are like me

    Never underestimate the deviousness of the rulers

    • Replies: @Twinkie
  58. @Twinkie

    Please.

    I was not in any sense wrong about Covid and I was not wrong about the electoral outcome either. This is something quite different than an election. This is a full court press media coup which requires a whole new evaluation.

    In effect, we have just been informed that the real power in this country is held by social media tycoons. They can censor a president, the can steal an election, they can do anything they want. It’s not exactly a new idea, but now it’s a new reality that I don’t think anyone was prepared for.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
  59. Twinkie says:
    @Intelligent Dasein

    I was not in any sense wrong about Covid and I was not wrong about the electoral outcome either.

    Keep living in denial.

    This is a full court press media coup which requires a whole new evaluation.

    Very predictable. 1) You turn out to be right – “See! I’m a genius! You all should listen to me!” 2) You turn out to be wrong – “I’m actually right, but the other side cheated, it’s a conspiracy, blah, blah, blah…” What you have is a religious mantra, not a logical argument that can be debated. Now, I don’t have a problem with religion (indeed I love mine), but YOU are neither God, a prophet, nor even a saint. Don’t ascribe to your opinion the power of religious faith. What you are doing is sacrilege.

    In effect, we have just been informed that the real power in this country is held by social media tycoons.

    I got news for you. The left wing media has had a powerful thumb on the political scale going back at least decades and longer. However, the country and its people have had center-right impulses for just as long. Capable and effective rightist politicians – as rare as they are – leverage this natural advantage and overcome the massive leftist media thumb on the scale (e.g. President Reagan gets a good rep these days, but the media in his day relentlessly attacked him as a stupid, illiterate warmongering tool of business interests who was going to start a nuclear war, yet he still won twice, the second time more massively than the first).

  60. Twinkie says:
    @Difference maker

    you guys give up too easily

    It’s true the fat lady hasn’t sung yet. I hope he wins NV and holds onto PA. Could still happen, but looks increasingly unlikely. Still, it ain’t over until it’s over. And it’s not over yet. And then there is still the fight on the senate…

  61. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Stolen Valor Detective

    the polls were clearly not just wrong, but wrong to a significantly greater extent and in a similar direction as in 2016.

    Isn’t it likely that the failure of the polls was entirely due to abnormally high voter turnout?

    And that abnormally high voter turnout happened because many people who had never previously considered voting by mail suddenly realised that it was an option? So a lot of people who usually don’t vote did vote this time?

    The polls are based on certain expectations of voter turnout. A huge increase in turnout was always going to throw everyone’s predictions out the window.

    • Replies: @anon
  62. @Intelligent Dasein

    I do not challenge but merely ask:

    I never thought that the Democrats would be so blatant and obvious in their vote thievery….

    Is there significant vote thievery?

    I do not know what other media organs are reporting, but The Wall Street Journal mentions some potential trouble in Detroit which probably adds up to too few votes to swing Michigan. The Journal reports no significant trouble in other states.

    Democrats do not merit the benefit of the doubt in this. I was sort of expecting more fraud, but I still do not see credible reportage of massive actual fraud. What did I miss, please?

    • Replies: @A123
    , @dfordoom
  63. That is where my low neuroticism and low agreeability come in handy.

    Is it possible to learn this power?

  64. A123 says:
    @V. K. Ovelund

    I discuss the obvious Michigan fraud here:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/habbening-us-elections-2020/#comment-4263827
    ____

    And, the highly suspicious Wisconsin numbers here:

    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/preliminary-vote-change-by-state-from-2016-to-2020/#comment-4265303

    No one has presented the proverbial “smoking gun” for Wisconsin. However, the situation is so statistically disharmonious there must be one or more underlying problems.

    PEACE 😇

  65. Dr. Doom says:

    Stupid Joe Biden hopes you are gullible enough to believe this FRAUD.

    Do you believe that he got THE MOST VOTES EVER? Even more than Obama?

    What a RETARD this senile old crook actually is in reality.

    Some frauds are doable, and then there’s FULL RETARD.

    Stupid Joe Biden is FULL RETARD.

    Lets segue into a War now, shall we? What is the 2nd Amendment for?

  66. anon[264] • Disclaimer says:
    @dfordoom

    Isn’t it likely that the failure of the polls was entirely due to abnormally high voter turnout?

    No.

  67. dfordoom says: • Website
    @V. K. Ovelund

    but I still do not see credible reportage of massive actual fraud. What did I miss, please?

    You’ll never be a real dissident rightist because you don’t understand how they work. They don’t need evidence (evidence is for cucks). They know there was fraud because, well just because.

    It’s ironic that dissident rightists hate women so much because they have a very female way of thinking. If you don’t agree with them you must be a bad person (probably a Jew or a Bolshevik). If Trump loses there must be fraud because it’s just so wrong that he didn’t win. Because feelings.

    What’s really amusing is that Trump supporters are so butt-hurt when Trump hasn’t even lost yet. He may well win. But they’re crying like girls because so many people (bad people) didn’t vote for him.

    • Replies: @V. K. Ovelund
    , @TomSchmidt
  68. @dfordoom

    You’ll never be a real dissident rightist because you don’t understand how they work.

    I never sought to be a dissident, but thought that circumstances had made me one; so I hope that I am wrong and you are right.

    Because feelings.

    Heh. You may have a point.

    I do not judge, though. Everyone’s circumstance is different, but as for me, this was my tenth time to vote in a U.S. presidential election. I was more engaged in the previous nine; I just didn’t really have a preference this time. I understand what it’s like to get carried away in the political moment.

  69. Dr. Doom says:

    We’re not crying dfordud. Some things are too obvious to be ignored.

    You’re all HOPING that this won’t trigger the Civil War.

    How’s your life in Brooklyn? Is it getting hot there?

    I do not have to have armies looking for you.

    You and your kind have MILLIONS of enemies nearby.

    They just need a period of non policing to find you and square up.

    This defund the police is an interesting idea.

    Perhaps they just need a reminder of who REALLY PAYS them?

  70. Twinkie says:
    @Rosie

    WWC women did indeed sour on Trump, supporting him at “only” 60% rather than 67%. On the other hand, WWC men also soured on Trump, and, I believe, a little more.

    Almost twice as big of a drop.

    White women without college degree went from +27 Trump to +21, a loss of 6 percentage points, but white men without college degree went from +48 to +37, a loss of 11 percentage points.

    On the other hand, white women with college degree went from +7 Clinton to Trump +1, a gain of 8 percentage points.

    White men with college degrees went from Trump +14 to Biden +2, a big loss of 16 percentage points.

    Meanwhile, non-white, no college was a gain of 6 for Trump, those with college degree was a gain of 10.

    The greatest decline in support for Trump was among white men with at least college degrees.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  71. @dfordoom

    I don’t think any Trump supporters cried in 2016 because Hillary crushed him by 3MM popular votes. CA voted more strongly for the D this time, while NY looks to have dropped to an 8% spread. That latter result is interesting, and maybe indicates that Cuomo is done.

    Trump seems to have done especially worse in PA, WI, and MI. Maybe that was deserved. Maybe it was fraud.

  72. @Twinkie

    Genuinely interesting. Had thought college-educated whites voted against Trump but they broke 50/50 for him. Do you have a link to the source of your stats?

    I cannot tell you the number of white, college-educated men I know who cannot find permanent work, the sort of work that David Stockman called breadwinner jobs. They don’t complain much, they don’t garner any sympathy, but they did just deliver the USA to Biden, it appears.

    Maybe if he had shut down H-1b back in 2017 he might not have lost this group.

    • Agree: Mark G.
    • Replies: @Twinkie
  73. Twinkie says:
    @TomSchmidt

    From Rosie’s link of CNN in the thread.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  74. @Twinkie

    Ah, Ill have to follow that. It’s fascinating data if true. thanks.

  75. @Twinkie

    In retrospect, it looks like my prediction was just about spot on. It appears I’ll miss in Wisconsin and Georgia, both of which I predicted for Trump, but both will be within a single point. In 2016, the polls overestimated Clinton by 1-2 points. It looks like in 2020 the polls will have overestimated Biden by 3-4 points.

  76. RSDB says:
    @Twinkie

    If you’re waiting for an American Franco, does that make Trump an American Gil Robles?

    On that timeline (even lengthening the time-scale to account for four-year rather than two-year intervals) things are not looking that great for the near future. Anyway even Spain had to go (rather fortuitously) through a Sanjurjo and a Mola to get to a Franco.

    • Replies: @V. K. Ovelund
  77. @RSDB

    If you’re waiting for an American Franco, does that make Trump an American Gil Robles?

    I do not know who Gil Robles is, unfortunately, but your comment is so picturesque that it got a laugh out of me, anyway.

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