Using the The Cook Political Report’s nifty Swingometer, 2020 Electoral College results if only whites without college degrees voted:
To those lacking both melanin and credentials, a reminder you didn’t need that the establishment really, really hates you:
In 2016, college-educated whites narrowly favored Trump over Clinton, 48%-45%, but polling suggests Biden will be able to overcome Trump’s edge this time around. Results if only whites with college degrees voted:
Though Trump appears to be doing worse with whites and better with non-whites than generic Republicans do, if only whites of all levels of educational attainment voted he would still enjoy an electoral landslide:
On the other hand, if people of color were given exclusive control of the outcome, Biden would turn Jeb Bush’s pipe dream into reality:
Speaking of electoral landslides, if the 2020 election were occurring with the nation’s demographics in 1984, a Trumpslide would indeed be on the horizon:
Apropos a recent post about the confidence Trump voters have in the president’s reelection chances, this goes a long way in explaining why so many Boomers think he’ll waltz into a second term. If the country looked like it did when they were settling into adulthood, he would. But it doesn’t, so he won’t.
At least it will look like a contest. If the country’s contemporary demographics looked like they’re projected to in 2036, the result would be a Biden blowout:
Reorienting on the present and within the confines of reality, if the combined efforts of Kanye West, Ice Cube, 50 Cent, and Candace Owens manage to get Blexit off the ground to such an extent that Trump garners 12% of the black vote while non-black support remains constant, the president will get four more years:
This outcome would cause Narrative writers’ heads to explode. Sadly, it’s unlikely to occur.