Commentary coming from the outside is really bad. Punditry on the modern left has largely devolved into little more than histrionic virtue signalling and moral posturing. Though the relevant data is seconds away, 0.4 minutes for verification is too much to ask as the same nonsense shows up over and over in the mouths of major media and in the feeds of the blue checkmarks.
– Kobach is an extremist who only appeals to a subset of the right. Kansas has a lot of moderates. He can’t win the entire state!
In 2010, Kobach won the statewide election for secretary of state, beating Democrat Chris Biggs 59%-37%. That was the same election in which Sam Brownback dominated Democrat Tom Holland, 63%-32%.
Four years later he won it again, this time beating Jean Kurtis Schodorf 59%-41%. His reelection was especially impressive as it happened alongside governor Brownback’s narrow 50%-46% reelection victory against Democrat Paul Davis.
During this time Kobach was writing laws for states and municipalities designed to give them tools to deal with the illegal invasion the federal government refused to do anything about. Though the mendacious media dropped this “breaking story” days before the 2018 gubernatorial primary, Kansans have known about Kobach’s activities for the better part of a decade. That’s why it didn’t move the needle then and it won’t move it in November.
– Kobach is Brownback on steroids!
Jeff Colyer was Brownback’s running mate in 2010 and again in 2014. He was twice elected lieutenant governor, sworn in alongside Brownback both times.
The Democrat Governors Association, the outfit feeding this mantra to clueless commentators, had the cue cards ready to go for Colyer. As Brownback’s right-hand man he was going to continue to former governor’s disastrous policies. When Kobach primaried sitting governor Colyer, the DGA simply replaced all instances of “Colyer” with “Kobach” in the scripts and carried on as if nothing else had changed.
When someone makes this accusation–that Kobach is Brownback’s successor–point out that Kobach literally defeated Brownback’s successor in the primary. Chances are you’ll get a deer-in-the-headlights reaction. Lots of people outside the state simply have no idea.
Colyer is Brownback’s solemn simulacrum. Brownback and Kobach couldn’t be further apart on the National Question, however. Brownback was a reliable, consistent voice for “comprehensive immigration reform” as senator in the 2000s and did nothing to discourage illegal aliens from squatting in the state he was governor of from 2010 through 2018.
– Kobach brought in new electronic voting machines for this election! We need paper ballots! A hard copy is insurance against digital shenanigans!
The new voting machines used in the August primary printed out a paper copy of each electronic ballot that was cast. Voters were able to review the paper ballot themselves before handing it over to an election official.
– More than twice as many people voted in the Kansas 2018 Democrat gubernatorial primary as voted in the 2010 or 2014 primaries! Impending blue wave!
While technically true, the Democrat candidates in both 2010 and 2014 ran unopposed for their respective nominations. This time around there were five people on the Democrat ballot for governor.
In 2018 there were 153,865 votes cast on the Democrat side compared to 316,887 on the Republican side. Republican turnout was more than twice as high as Democrat turnout was.
I’d be remiss not to note that this white pill contains some impurities. There are a fair number of people in the state–nobody knows the figure for certain, but I’ve now verified three people in my own real life social network who fit the bill–who are genuine RINOs. They are registered Republicans only for the sake of participation in Republican primaries. In general elections, they reliably vote D down the line. Because Kansas is such a heavily Republican at the state level, this allows them to always have some actual electoral influence at the voting booth.
But even if we assume that 1-in-3 non-Kobach votes were cast by RINOs intending on voting D in November, Kobach still wins 57%-43% among combined primary votes.
And Colyer is throwing his support (at least publicly) to Kris. He could have pulled the pin on the recount grenade to try and blow up Kobach’s chances in November. Instead, he honorably conceded. Two days after that–tonight–Kobach and Colyer held a joint rally to thank their supporters and to showcase a united front. The internecine fighting that happened during the primary will be a distant memory in twelve weeks.
Parenthetically, to understand the mindset of the modal Kansas Republican voter, listen to Colyer’s concession speech. Bear this in mind when watching the general election campaign from afar. Kobach is rock solid where it counts, but he does have an election to win and he is going to have to calibrate his message accordingly to do that.
There is also Greg Orman, a rich cosmopolitan businessman running as an independent. He is essentially a chamber of commerce-approved leftist. He is an open borders zealot who is likely to steal more votes from Democrat Laura Kelly than from Kobach. In 2014, Orman challenged Republican senator Pat Roberts in the general election after Democrat Chad Taylor withdrew to make it possible for Roberts to be unseated. Roberts was reelected, but Orman got 43% of the vote. As a consequence he is now a known entity with a lot of name recognition.
Transitioning away from standard attacks against Kris Kobach for Kansas (they’re so clever, aren’t they? Hey, hey, hey), here’s another reason this election is so important. Kobach, a white goy from the midwest, went to Harvard for his BA, Oxford for his PhD, and Yale for his JD. He emerged from those three anti-white immersion centers as an unapologetic America First father of five with middle American sensibilities.
He’s as sharp as a tack and intellectually unshakable. Unlike a pugilistic Trump or a holy-rolling Ted Cruz, Kobach’s the type a moderate white professional is not embarrassed to vote for. He’s a guy they can imagine as a trusted lawyer or accountant. The Democrats are trying through sheer force of will to paint him as an incompetent boob, but five minutes of hearing him speak dispels that notion:
Notice how sharp he is on the language. They’re “illegal aliens”, not undocumented whatevers. It doesn’t matter if they “work hard”, they have no claim to squat on American soil.
The rapidity with which Kobach and Colyer have buried the hatchet could be seen as an indication that Kobach is going to cuck.
In my estimation, though, it is far more likely that this is an early indication of what the Republican party’s realignment is going to look like: America First hard-edged civic nationalism assuming the senior position in the party’s internal coalition, while the chamber of commerce libertarianism that has characterized the GOP since Reagan gets demoted to junior partner.