Gender Doesn't Matter, Marriage Does
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Steve Sailer’s perspicacity is like a fine wine, starting off good and getting even better over time.
In a Reuters-Ipsos two-way generic 2018 mid-term congressional ballot (N = 61,712), Republicans garner 53.9% of the married vote compared to only 34.3% of the unmarried vote.
Republicans get 47.3% of the vote among men of any marital status compared to 42.6% among women of any marital status.
The marital gap is 19.6 points. The gender gap is just 4.7 points.
Okay, the post’s title is hyperbolic. Gender matters some, but matrimony matters a lot more–over four times as much.
Tearing down borders and tearing down marriages are both quite good for the left’s electoral prospects.
(Republished from The Audacious Epigone by permission of author or representative)
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Stop lying. (Even if it's by force of habit and custom.)
Words have gender. People have sex.
Gender is an entirely imaginary property arbitrarily applied to certain words. It exists only by convention; it has no independent reality. Sex is inherently tied to specific physical structure and function.
This is precisely WHY the left pushed the use of the word "gender" in the first place – to obfuscate what specifically they were talking about.
Gender doesn't matter at all.
Sex does.
hello American friends. I know the polls are rigged, but we could beat them at their own game.
How ? I had go to the wiki election page, watching the contested seats (house, senate, governors) and, for each seat, I choose between all pundit (cook, 538, etc., but not fox) the one wich favorise the most the R candidate.
For the house :
safe R : 167 (1 pu)
safe D : 166
likely R : 28 (1 pu)
likely D : 19 (3 pu)
lean R : 14 (1 pu)
lean D : 12 (5 pu)
tilt R (I have to admit I don’t know what it mean, and if it’s more or less close than “lean”) : 1
titl D : 4 (3pu)
total D : 201 (11 pu)
total R : 210 (3 pu)
there is only so 24 PURE tossup (23 R, 1 D) : I use the same system, the poll the more favorable to R is take in balance.
Michigan 11 =
Kansas 2 D1
Nevada 3 D2
New York 22 D2
Minnesota 2 D3
New Jersey 7 D3
California 10 D5
California 45 D5
Minnesota 3 D5
Kansas 3 D6
Illinois 6 R1
Kentucky 6 R1
New York 19 R1
California 39 R10
Colorado 6 R10
Washington 8 R10
Iowa 3 R16
California 25 R2
California 48 R2
Florida 27 R2
New Jersey 3 R2
Michigan 8 R3
Virginia 7 R4
Maine 2 R5
So, on tossup seats, the OFFICIAL left-wing pundit predict 9 seats for D and 14 for R (without MI11, wich is historically deeply R)
so, even with left-wing pundit, I optain :
225 R (net losses from 2016 : 16)
210 D (net gain from 2016 : 16)
**************************************
SENATE :
Mississippi Safe R
Mississippi 2 Safe R
Nebraska Safe R
Utah Safe R
Wyoming Safe R
North Dakota Likely R
Tennessee Likely R
Texas Likely R
Arizona Tossup
Florida Tossup
Indiana Tossup
Missouri Tossup
Montana Tossup
Nevada Tossup
West Virginia Tilt D
Minnesota 2 Lean D
New Jersey Lean D
Ohio Lean D
Wisconsin Lean D
Michigan Likely D
Pennsylvania Likely D
I give AZ, IN, FL, MO and NV for R
net gain R : 4 (and real chances in MT, WV, NJ)
so, next senate : R 55, D 45 (potentially R 58, D 42)
**************************
governors :
12 safe R
2 safe D (Hawaii, NY)
Arizona Likely R
Oklahoma Likely R
South Dakota Likely R
Alaska Lean R
Georgia Lean R
Kansas Lean R
Ohio Tilt R
Connecticut Tossup
Florida Tossup
Iowa Tossup
Maine Tossup
Nevada Tossup
Oregon Tossup
Wisconsin Tossup
Colorado Lean D
Michigan Lean D
Minnesota Lean D
New Mexico Lean D
Rhode Island Lean D
California Likely D
Illinois Likely D
Pennsylvania Likely D
I give generously (by fairness, using the same method than with House, better polls for R in september and october, even if I think FL will be R) 6 PU for Dem (IL, NM, MI, ME, IA, FL)
before Nov 6 : D 17, R 33
after Nov 6 : D 22, R 28 (5 D net gain)
*********************
in conclusion, EVEN with left-wing pundit, pollsters, and WITHOUT expecting the cold anger vote, and the net advantage in term of voting by the R electorate (old, white), I optain a TOTAL R VICTORY ON THE 3 ELECTIONS.
I hope the state legislatures will go in the same way.
O/T
It begins
http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-fg-immigration-trek-america-tijuana/
I feel like when Trump fails to turn things around (civic nationalism is a dead end), he just paves the way for Bolsanaro types, who pave the way for the people we really want in charge.
Brazil is where we'll be in 40 years.
Gender is a synonym for sex and dates back to 1300.
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/gender
Word Origin and History for gender
n.
c.1300, "kind, sort, class," from Old French gendre (12c., Modern French genre ), from stem of Latin genus (genitive generis ) "race, stock, family; kind, rank, order; species," also (male or female) "sex" (see genus) and used to translate Aristotle's Greek grammatical term genos .
The grammatical sense is attested in English from late 14c.; the male-or-female sense from early 15c. As sex took on erotic qualities in 20c., gender came to be the common word used for "sex of a human being," often in feminist writing with reference to social attributes as much as biological qualities; this sense first attested 1963. Gender-bender is first attested 1980, with reference to pop star David Bowie.
That depends on poll. On the majority of recent polls i have seen, the US gender gap, including the white gender gap, is large.
For example according to Civics it is 29 %.
https://www.civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2018?annotations=true&net=true&uncertainty=true&race=White&gender=Female
Moreover, the gender gap is properly estimated by looking at both Dem and Rep support, not only at Rep support.
Example: Lets say that 53 percent of men will vote for Reps and 40 will vote for Dem.
53 percent of women will vote Rep and 47 percent will vote Dem. The others won't vote of don't know.
Does this mean that there is no gender gap here, just because equal percentages will vote Republican? No. Do they vote the same? No. Thus there is a gender gap. The gap is estimated by looking at both Rep support and Dem support, not only at Rep support. So in reality, the gender gap here in this case is not zero, but it is (+13) – (+ 6) = 7.
The Gender gap in this hypothetical case is 7 percent, not zero.
In the 2016 election, the gender gap was: white men 62 R | 31 D = +31 , and white women 52 R 43 D = +9 –> (+31) – (+9) = 22%, in other words it was relatively large.
Here you can see an example of how a gender gap is estimated. And no, it is not estimated by only looking at republican support, but by looking at both republican and democtratic support.
https://www.npr.org/2016/11/04/500539396/the-gender-gap-in-this-election-could-be-the-biggest-in-at-least-60-years
Let's make a bet, AE. If the gender gap among whites in the Novermber US election is less than 10 percentage points, i buy you a beer. If it is more than 10 percentage points, you buy me a beer.
Could be made into a nice propaganda.
Happily married women vote for Republicans, single one vote for Democrats. Republicans wants you to be happily married, Democracts wants you to be single.
OTOH I tried this one in Poland with "the right wants you to be rich, because rich vote for the right" and it didn't work.
In other news: 23% whites in USA notice the racist reality.
https://familyinequality.wordpress.com/2018/10/22/survey-says-23-of-whites-think-whites-are-more-intelligent-than-blacks/#comments
In other news: 23% whites in USA notice the racist reality.
https://familyinequality.wordpress.com/2018/10/22/survey-says-23-of-whites-think-whites-are-more-intelligent-than-blacks/#comments
That kind of thing really depresses me. If you can't convince more than 23% of this, how are you ever going to get anywhere with stuff that is counter-intuitive or difficult to conclusively demonstrate?
There's a general sense around the dissident right that ;everyone knows this stuff, but is just too scared to admit it'. Apparently not. Predictably the higher your level of education the less likely you are to believe it.
More like, the higher your level of education the more you have to lose by letting it slip that you believe it.
Also, you rub elbows with a much more select fraction of Blacks the higher up you go in education; people exposed only to highly biased samples are going to reach inaccurate conclusions. It's the people with high school or less educations who tend to come into regular contact with average and sub-average Blacks and see their deficiencies and dysfunctions up close and personal.
What, pray tell, is the parent gap? I know marriage correlates to fecundity somewhat, but it's a weak proxy, and I could see the bastardy set being more intensely pro-government. But I could also see even those poor souls understanding on some level that voting to rob your children of their national patrimony is evil. Without kids, what skin is in the game? Okay, the eternal soul, but belief in that correlates massively with having children and voting to not impoverish them anyway.
OT: There may be something to your Gen Z theory. Middle school students in Maine voted for the Republican candidate for governor in a statewide mock election.
Back in my (Millennial) school days, the Democrat would take 70% and the only race would've been between the Republican, Libertarian and Green for second.
I have no doubt that the far left wants to keep preventing families from happening, but everybody in this comment thread is giving the political right way too much credit.
Just because the left is doing something bad, doesn't mean the right is doing something good. In fact, the right is doing nothing to actually help families stay traditional. Going on and on about gays, trannies, and abortion isn't going to help normal families. None of you "alt-right" white conservatives are actually helping normal families. You know what would actually help people stay in traditional families? Ban frivolous divorce. You can only leave your wife/husband if they cheated, beat you, or deserted you. You only get a favorable divorce settlement if you were not at fault. We need social shaming for people who have kids out of wedlock. End the welfare state. Mandatory paternity testing – this would have the effect of punishing promiscuous men AND women. Equal social shaming for promiscuity – give the feminists and leftists no space to argue.
But let's be honest: none of you "alt-right" white conservative men are actually willing to do any of these things. You want to prevent women from frivolously divorcing their husbands but you want men to be able to leave their aging wives for a younger model. You want to end female promiscuity but not male promiscuity. You want women to get shamed for sleeping around, but you yourselves want to be able to sleep around without any consequences.
This is why traditional white American families are going to fail. The left wants equal opportunity promiscuity for everyone, and the right only wants to shame Colored folk, gays/trannies, and white women. No white person in America wants to end divorce and illegitimacy across the board.
This is really silly. People who marry are different on average, genetically, from those who don't. Those differences cause both marriage and voting Republican.
Anon,
Any politician, GOP or otherwise, that proposes ending the keystone of feminism, will meet a hellstorm. Not to mention that it's a larder for the Bar Association.
The changes you favor cannot be implemented with the current demographics and electoral system, you'd need a Muslim majority or the undemocratic overthrow of the liberal system.
Good luck
@216
I disagree. Middle Eastern Muslims are not the only people who support traditional families. According to Wikipedia, "Out-of-wedlock births are less common in Asia: in 1993 the rate in Japan was 1.4%; in Israel, 3.1%; in China, 5.6%; in Uzbekistan, 6.4%; in Kazakhstan, 21%; in Kyrgyzstan, 24%."
Maybe white Americans are beyond help, but East Asians, Subcontinentals, and Central Asians might vote to ban frivolous divorce, go back to a fault-only system, and socially shame their neighbors for promiscuity and illegitimacy.
Even non-American blacks seem to have good values. Nigeria's illegitimacy rate is only 6%. White Americans love to blame genetics on the way black Americans are. I blame culture and welfare. If you change the culture and get rid of the welfare you CAN make black Americans behave like Nigerians.
What America would need to save the traditional family are Middle Eastern Muslims, East Asians, Subcontinentals, Central Asians, and black Africans. White Americans should rightfully be ashamed of their behavior.
@ 216 and Anon:
Banning frivolous divorce would be good, if we could get it.
Another, perhaps less contentious approach, could be to concentrate our fire on divorces where under-age kids are left hanging.
What if we forced kids of such divorces to be put into some sort of foster care, such that both divorcees' visitation would be regulated, instead of the current system of usually giving mothers sole custody?
And, while we're at it, how about doing same to unwed mothers?
If we gave (married!!) foster-parents big enough tax breaks, they'd likely be better stewards of these kids, than the Murphy Brown etc. princesses who now have the Power.
@aNanyMouse
Giving mothers sole custody is default for *illegitimacy*, not divorce. At least where I live, shared custody after a divorce is the norm, but not 50/50. It's more like 40/60, but it's still better than nothing. But yes, 50/50 custody should be the default for illegitimacy.
Also foster care is even worse than divorce and illegitimacy for kids. If you compare foster care kids to divorce kids or illegitimate kids, the foster care kids do worse by far.
Ananymouse,
I don't see that system working in a religiously pluralist society, if you think "kids in cages" was bad, this would be that several times over. As a deterrent is too draconian.
The easy thing to do is to put more restrictions on marriage, and transform divorce from an adversarial process to and administrative process. We also could make marriages automatically dissolve within two years unless they are renewed. None of these will attract opposition from feminists, but will attract significant opposition from the Bar.
I don't believe incentivizing adoptions (except by extended family) is a good public policy. International adoptions should be banned, again unless it is an extended family within one degree.
vok3,
When I was proofreading, I changed the instances of "sex" to "gender". I agree with the sentiments and respect the criticism. The confusion comes in with sex being both an act and a biological description. "The sex gap" in a political context sounds like it may have to do with incels and alphas.
John Derbyshire has written about exactly this. I'm following his convention for the sake of clarity, not for the sake of any kind of political correctness.
Philippe,
Interesting. We'll make it here for reference. It should be noted that the polling outfits didn't miss much nationally, though they all calibrated to a more competitive election as the day approached. On a state level, they tended to predict that 'deep' blue and red states would be more closer than they actually were.
216,
Indeed. Latin America is an annoyance, but they're low-energy with low TFRs and they create crummy but not especially dangerous societies (central America excepted). The real civilizational threat comes from Africans. They're an ocean away though, right? Maybe not.
Anon,
In forty years we'll demographically be where Brazil is, too. Has to be faster than that!
Passer by,
I computed all the Republican support levels in a two-way among voters, so the residual Democrat support gets each to 100%. If X is 55%R, 45% D and Y is 45%R, 55% D, I do describe that as a 10 point rather than a 20 point gap. If not, then if X is 80%R, 20% white Y is 20%R, 80%D, we're talking about a 120 point gap, which is pretty confusing.
I'll watch it with interest, but I'm not betting. I only do that when I'm confident I'm going to win! What I am confident of: The 2018 mid-term marriage gap will be larger than the gender gap is.
szopen,
Good to see more and more people using the GSS.
Even blacks, on average, rate whites as more intelligent than blacks.
Gabriel,
The more people who point out that the emperor is naked, the more people will realize he's been naked all along. Genetics is on the cusp of rendering a belief in no average differences in intelligence by group a clearly anti-science position to hold.
Mr. Rational,
Z-Man, who lives and works in Baltimore, talks about this all the time. When I was in my early twenties, I played basketball for hours at a time in a section 8 housing complex across from the place I worked at the time. It's so, so obvious in situations like that.
Kipling,
I'm interested in that as well, but R-I only asks if respondents have children currently living at home, which is suboptimal.
Restricting to under 60 to avoid the problem of empty nesters, there is a modest advantage for Rs among people with children. Interestingly, having children correlates with greater support for Ds than not having them does among the unmarried, while the opposite is true for those who are married. Among marrieds, having children correlates with greater support for R. May post on that but I'll have to work around the obvious racial confounds (i.e. black women don't marry much at all and they all vote D).
snorlax,
Interesting, though a little disappointing to see all the incumbents prevail. Probably can only expect so much from middle schoolers–name recognition probably counts for a lot.
Anon,
We Returners are an eclectic collection. Yeah, we have our Edgars but we also have our Cyans.
I am one such white person. I have three kids and a wife. I would never cheat on any of them–and infidelity is cheating on all of them, not just the wife.
As for maternity/paternity testing, we're not far from that being an effective reality. In another decade, everyone will get their genomes sequenced. You'll know when your wife's baby is a few days old–or before it's even born!–if it's not yours.
Anon,
Women move closer to their husbands, politically, when they marry than men move towards their wives. For voting behavior to be unrelated to marital status, we'd have to assume that political conservatism is substantially more correlated with marriage in women than in men, which seems odd.
I'm admittedly biased. My wife voted for Obama in '08 (before I met her). When we were dating in '12, she voted for Gary Johnson. In '16, she of course voted for Trump, and next month she is going to vote for Kobach. These last two things horrify her family but she's been convinced that they're *good* for our family, so that's what she does. I suspect that is far more common a marital dynamic than a moderately conservative man being convinced by his feminist wife to vote for The Cunt.
Basted…
https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1055622965587599360
Nevertheless, a better optics than going after the sportsballers (who've had a remarkable recovery in public opinion since going "woke").
Turning Point apparently had a "Black Youth Amren".
Textbook example of why the term "controlled opposition" exists, and Boomercons literally pay them for the privilege.
https://twitter.com/CR/status/1055587346110922752
"fine…responsibly…gradually"
Have any of them ever shamed a non-white into voting Republican?
A good visual demonstration of "generational eclipse" and "demographic eclipse"
https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1055542364805259270
Boomers: one fifth of voters, but one-half of votes cast.
216 –
One half of early votes. Very different.
Even non-American blacks seem to have good values. Nigeria's illegitimacy rate is only 6%. White Americans love to blame genetics on the way black Americans are. I blame culture and welfare.
This is true as far as it goes. While western culture (i.e. leftism) is debilitating to white people, it's absolutely deadly to blacks who need strong social controls from cradle to grave. But with that said…
If you change the culture and get rid of the welfare you CAN make black Americans behave like Nigerians.
Not much of an incentive really. If that's your goal, why bother?
What America would need to save the traditional family are Middle Eastern Muslims, East Asians, Subcontinentals, Central Asians, and black Africans. White Americans should rightfully be ashamed of their behavior.
You already observed that when ethnics come to America they adopt liberal mores with the results being worse the lower down the IQ spectrum you go. You need to think this one through more.
@Gabriel M
Ok, then I suggest the alternate option: White Americans should go to live in countries with more conservative moral values. If people tend to pick up the values of the majority culture, maybe white Americans would stop being such fatass divorced unwed parents if they moved to Japan.
Anon@5:53 –
The Japanese don't seem particularly on board with that idea. And if people pick up the values of the majority culture, white Americans who move to Japan wouldn't become parents at all.
@snorlax
I come from a SWPL family and live in a SWPL area. It has always been an unspoken rule in elite white America that while the highest status people are married to their first spouse and have kids with him/her, single people have higher status than divorcees and childless people have higher status than parents of illegitimates.
You can get married and not have kids, but you must never ever have kids without being married.
216,
It makes boomers feel good and it further destabilizes the Coalition of the Fringes. It's not getting many black votes, though, I suspect.
Anon,
You can get married and not have kids, but you must never ever have kids without being married.
Continue the species or don't, what is imperative is that you not let your publicly perceived social status ever slip!
o/t
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45988854
https://dawum.de/Hessen/
Interesting to see if this year's last Blue Banana election delivers on the jourolist speculations.
Certain "swing voters" have shown a tendency to desert the AFD when hit with moral shaming, and the alleged promise that voting FDP is "useful"
No two party coalition could be possible, according to the polls in the second link, the SPD base will be screaming for a three-party coalition with the Communist party that has never had power in West Germany.
Add on to the previous:
A leftist victory in Hesse means a Muslim becomes the new Governor, in the most demographically overrun state. As symbolism it doesn't get much better than that, but Sadiq Khan never seems to have scared anyone at the other end of the Blue Banana.