The Democratic Florida exit polls (msnbc has a very user-friendly listing of exit poll data organized by state and by party) show the same demographic patterns as were seen in Nevada and South Carolina, with Hillary doing better relative to Edwards than she did in his home state.
In Nevada, Hillary took 64% of the Hispanic vote. In Florida, she took 59% of it.
In SC, Obama took 78% of the black vote. In Florida, he took 73% of it. Also in SC, Obama took 24% of the white vote. In Florida, he took 23% of it. The big difference, of course, is that in SC blacks comprised 55% of the participants on the Democratic side, while in Florida they only made up 19%. The country looks more like Florida than SC.
Hillary is going to dominate in the Southwest and the South, and she has control of big Northeastern states like New York. She will be the Democratic nominee.
The Obama hype has been overblown from the beginning. I had wondered why Hillary hadn’t earlier tapped into the Jeremiah Wright/Dreams from my Father goldmine to bury him. Well, she never needed to. As attuned to the demographic realities on the ground as I tried to be, I still gullibly began to waver, influenced by the media bunk.
Edwards departure furthers my certainty. Had he hung around through ‘Super Tuesday’, the delegates he picked up could’ve been pledged to Obama. Although they are not obligated to vote for their candidate’s endorsement once that original candidate bows out (though 10 of Edwards’ delegates will be dispersed among Obama and Hillary in accordance to party rules), traditionally they do. Edwards’ crop of state delegates that he still ‘controls’ represent less than half of one percent of the total delegate pool, and so are not a determining factor. Had he bumped that up to 300 or so, they could’ve potentially meant something.
But what if Edwards endorses Obama, won’t the effect be the same as if he’d pledged those future delegates to Obama? No. His supporters back Hillary over Obama by more than a 3-to-2 margin. His endorsement one way or another will not significantly change that.