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RCP’s averages have Trump ceding Arizona, Florida, Maine’s second congressional district, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from 2016 without flipping any states of his own:

Biden’s prospects have never been better. The betting markets similarly have him winning in a landslide:

When we last visited the trading floor back in May, Biden was favored more modestly, at 290-248. That was after the coronavirus catastrophe but before civil unrest set America’s cities on fire.

Trump appears to have realized that his current trajectory is that of a one-term president. Over the last several days he has issued the first executive order of his time in office that significantly reduces legal immigration into the country, blasted pictures of rioters involved in the attempted toppling of the Andrew Jackson statue near the White House, and gave a fiery, unapologetic speech on the eve of the nation’s independence. Sample quote:

We must protect and preserve our history, our heritage, and our great heroes. Here tonight, before the eyes of our forefathers, Americans declare again–as we did 244 years ago–that we will not be tyrannized. We will not be demeaned. And we will not be intimidated by bad, evil people.

Our prediction of a Biden victory stands, but this reversion to 2016 campaign Trump stands a chance of turning things around. How much of a chance? More than Jared Kushner’s counsel was yielding him. More than zero percent, in other words.

 
• Category: Culture/Society, Ideology • Tags: Election 2020, Polling 
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  1. Given the increasing demonization of Trumpist views, I think polling is becoming more and more unreliable. On the one hand, many people – including those who voted for him – are disenchanted and disappointed with Trump. On the other hand, the excesses of the radical left and would-be revolutionaries and their mainstream institutional supporters have struck fear into many apolitical people and they may vote for him, viewing him their best chance to check the power of the former.

    November is untold news cycles from now – we won’t know until the vote.

    • Replies: @Mr. Rational
    @Twinkie


    Given the increasing demonization of Trumpist views, I think polling is becoming more and more unreliable. On the one hand, many people – including those who voted for him – are disenchanted and disappointed with Trump.
     
    Some of that appears to be changing.  Some long-overdue actions are finally happening.

    On the other hand, the excesses of the radical left and would-be revolutionaries and their mainstream institutional supporters have struck fear into many apolitical people and they may vote for him, viewing him their best chance to check the power of the former.
     
    That does appear to be the case.

    November is untold news cycles from now – we won’t know until the vote.
     
    It looks like the Trumpists are playing that cycle like a violin.  Ghislane Maxwell was finally arrested for pedophilic crimes associated with Epstein.  Give things another month and see what happens, eh?

    Replies: @nebulafox, @Realist, @dfordoom

  2. So voters want to reward riots? This is strange.

    • Replies: @Ash Williams
    @Reg Cæsar


    So voters want to reward riots? This is strange.

     

    Agreed.

    Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs FTW https://www.simplypsychology.org/maslow.html

    The Woke Inc. provide Esteem Needs

    Trump Inc. provide Security, Food, & Shelter, which are Basic (AKA survival) Needs

    This is literally very basic stuff, people.

    Replies: @Not Only Wrathful

  3. A123 says:

    Trump Derangement Syndrome has consumed the “Media Polls”. They are now intentionally turning out fake results as ground work for massive ballot fabrication. The New Jersey election with 20%+ fraudulent ballots is an leading indicator of the magnitude of DNC fabrication that will occur in November.

    The “Election Markets” are somewhat more concerning. However, they openly admit that traders take positions for potential short-term gains. Historically, the party conventions have offered profit opportunities unrelated to the final election outcome.

    There is huge & inevitable move away from Biden as soon as he picks a VP that offends one (or more) faction of the SJW Democrat Party coalition.

    Biden’s mental limitations will be hammered for the next four months. He could accidentally invade Iowa instead of Iran…. after all they both have four letters and begin with “I”. Swing voters will be unwilling to give nuclear strike authority to a mental invalid.

    PEACE 😇

  4. @Twinkie
    Given the increasing demonization of Trumpist views, I think polling is becoming more and more unreliable. On the one hand, many people - including those who voted for him - are disenchanted and disappointed with Trump. On the other hand, the excesses of the radical left and would-be revolutionaries and their mainstream institutional supporters have struck fear into many apolitical people and they may vote for him, viewing him their best chance to check the power of the former.

    November is untold news cycles from now - we won’t know until the vote.

    Replies: @Mr. Rational

    Given the increasing demonization of Trumpist views, I think polling is becoming more and more unreliable. On the one hand, many people – including those who voted for him – are disenchanted and disappointed with Trump.

    Some of that appears to be changing.  Some long-overdue actions are finally happening.

    On the other hand, the excesses of the radical left and would-be revolutionaries and their mainstream institutional supporters have struck fear into many apolitical people and they may vote for him, viewing him their best chance to check the power of the former.

    That does appear to be the case.

    November is untold news cycles from now – we won’t know until the vote.

    It looks like the Trumpists are playing that cycle like a violin.  Ghislane Maxwell was finally arrested for pedophilic crimes associated with Epstein.  Give things another month and see what happens, eh?

    • Replies: @nebulafox
    @Mr. Rational

    I mean, I could be wrong. It has happened before. Remember 2016?

    But I'd be more willing to buy the idea that Trump's support is being underrported enough that he pulls off another Rust Belt victory, with the way the Democrats are going... if it wasn't for COVID. Look at incumbent Presidents who lost elections in modern history: Carter, Bush I. Neither of them presiding over anything that impacted Americans to this degree. No amount of left-wing misbehavior can hide the fact that Trump screwed the pooch on it big-time, especially during the first few months. But even recently: holding a massive closed-door rally without any masks? Really?

    Yes, Carlson called COVID while Kushner labeled it "fake news", so this isn't about the populists getting it wrong-they were the ones to get it right, on both sides of the political spectrum if you look at guys like Stoller. But who appointed Kushner to a position of authority in the first place? That the protests are responsible for the current surge is true, but irrelevant: Trump's going to get the first portion of the political blame, because the buck did stop with him earlier this year and he failed to rise to the challenge.

    Replies: @Intelligent Dasein, @Jane Plain, @SFG

    , @Realist
    @Mr. Rational


    Some of that appears to be changing. Some long-overdue actions are finally happening.
     
    Name one....that is action...not talk.

    It looks like the Trumpists are playing that cycle like a violin. Ghislane Maxwell was finally arrested for pedophilic crimes associated with Epstein. Give things another month and see what happens, eh?
     
    This country's problems are a hell of a lot more significant than Ghislaine Maxwell. Let me know when asshole Trump has Hillary arrested.
    , @dfordoom
    @Mr. Rational

    Has there ever been a case, in any country, of an incumbent leader or government being re-elected with an economy completely in the toilet? Whether it's fair not not, when the economy goes down the gurgler the voters take it out on the incumbent government.

    So unless Trump can produce an economic miracle before November it's hard to see him being re-elected.

    When the economy goes really bad then the economy becomes overwhelmingly the most important election issue.

    Trump's COVID-19 bungling is of course one of the main reasons for the economic disaster so in that respect his mishandling of that issue is going to cost him.

    Replies: @Diversity Heretic, @Louis Renault

  5. @Mr. Rational
    @Twinkie


    Given the increasing demonization of Trumpist views, I think polling is becoming more and more unreliable. On the one hand, many people – including those who voted for him – are disenchanted and disappointed with Trump.
     
    Some of that appears to be changing.  Some long-overdue actions are finally happening.

    On the other hand, the excesses of the radical left and would-be revolutionaries and their mainstream institutional supporters have struck fear into many apolitical people and they may vote for him, viewing him their best chance to check the power of the former.
     
    That does appear to be the case.

    November is untold news cycles from now – we won’t know until the vote.
     
    It looks like the Trumpists are playing that cycle like a violin.  Ghislane Maxwell was finally arrested for pedophilic crimes associated with Epstein.  Give things another month and see what happens, eh?

    Replies: @nebulafox, @Realist, @dfordoom

    I mean, I could be wrong. It has happened before. Remember 2016?

    But I’d be more willing to buy the idea that Trump’s support is being underrported enough that he pulls off another Rust Belt victory, with the way the Democrats are going… if it wasn’t for COVID. Look at incumbent Presidents who lost elections in modern history: Carter, Bush I. Neither of them presiding over anything that impacted Americans to this degree. No amount of left-wing misbehavior can hide the fact that Trump screwed the pooch on it big-time, especially during the first few months. But even recently: holding a massive closed-door rally without any masks? Really?

    Yes, Carlson called COVID while Kushner labeled it “fake news”, so this isn’t about the populists getting it wrong-they were the ones to get it right, on both sides of the political spectrum if you look at guys like Stoller. But who appointed Kushner to a position of authority in the first place? That the protests are responsible for the current surge is true, but irrelevant: Trump’s going to get the first portion of the political blame, because the buck did stop with him earlier this year and he failed to rise to the challenge.

    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
    @nebulafox


    That the protests are responsible for the current surge is true, but irrelevant:
     
    1) There is no surge, and; 2) You are drastically overestimating the size of the protests, justifying fake news with fake news.
    , @Jane Plain
    @nebulafox


    But I’d be more willing to buy the idea that Trump’s support is being underrported
     
    Or that a lot of his supporters are enraged at his fumbling of COVID and lack of response to the riots, but they can be persuaded back when they see Demented, Feeble Old Uncle Joe, and continued unrest drives them back.

    About COVID, I think he fumbled something that could have been leveraged to his advantage but it's a done deal. What will be, will be. Americans are, despite their reputation for being soft, tough and stoic.

    About the riots, I was enraged at his lack of response but I'm more forgiving now. If one hair on the head of a demonstrator had been harmed, he would have been Worse Than Hitler. So I think he was right to let the Democratic cities burn, and draw the line at Old Hickory in Lafayette Park.

    Now. We haven't seen Joe Biden come out of his basement, have we? He will have to do so eventually, and his feebleness will be crushingly apparent. Hopefully we'll have a few debates and Trump will lay him out.

    And then there are unforeseen events. Like more of this. They stopped and interrogated white motorists. Maybe next time someone will respond.

    https://twitter.com/tariqnasheed/status/1279584122956988418

    Replies: @HallParvey

    , @SFG
    @nebulafox

    Unfortunately, the mainstream right picked the wrong side of the mask controversy.

    Sure lots of dissident right bloggers were calling for masks early, but that's not the way it panned out once this became a culture-war issue (because EVERYTHING is left versus right in this country now). There were lots of blue-collar red-state people protesting for their right to reopen because this was only affecting New York. Trump gained temporary advantage by standing with them on this issue...but now this thing's spread to the red states and, well, Trump looks foolish.

    He's still got four months to turn it around I guess. He's really good at shifting with the winds. Unfortunately, 100K+ dead people are hard to undo.

  6. We must protect and preserve our history, our heritage, and our great heroes. Here tonight, before the eyes of our forefathers, Americans declare again–as we did 244 years ago–that we will not be tyrannized. We will not be demeaned. And we will not be intimidated by bad, evil people.

    Lol this isn’t fiery or unapologetic||

  7. @Reg Cæsar
    So voters want to reward riots? This is strange.

    Replies: @Ash Williams

    So voters want to reward riots? This is strange.

    Agreed.

    Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs FTW https://www.simplypsychology.org/maslow.html

    The Woke Inc. provide Esteem Needs

    Trump Inc. provide Security, Food, & Shelter, which are Basic (AKA survival) Needs

    This is literally very basic stuff, people.

    • Replies: @Not Only Wrathful
    @Ash Williams


    The Woke Inc. provide Esteem Needs
     
    It provides a very empty illusion of esteem needs. This is why the treadmill has to spin ever faster.

    Replies: @Ash Williams

  8. @Ash Williams
    @Reg Cæsar


    So voters want to reward riots? This is strange.

     

    Agreed.

    Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs FTW https://www.simplypsychology.org/maslow.html

    The Woke Inc. provide Esteem Needs

    Trump Inc. provide Security, Food, & Shelter, which are Basic (AKA survival) Needs

    This is literally very basic stuff, people.

    Replies: @Not Only Wrathful

    The Woke Inc. provide Esteem Needs

    It provides a very empty illusion of esteem needs. This is why the treadmill has to spin ever faster.

    • Replies: @Ash Williams
    @Not Only Wrathful


    It provides a very empty illusion of esteem needs. This is why the treadmill has to spin ever faster.
     
    Yes, but I think it's even worse than that because of why the treadmill has to increase in speed. It's more like a crackhead jonesing for his next hit. Once one goal is met, another more extreme one is created, ad infinitum.

    This is likely due to Marx popularizing the idea of "permanent revolution", and instilling the principle of never being satisfied in the shriveled hearts and minds of Communists everywhere.

    Replies: @dfordoom, @Not Only Wrathful, @HallParvey

  9. The problem for at least some of us who supported Trump in 2015-2016 is that we’ve had three and a half years of Jeb Bush with an aggressive Twitter account. I’m reminded of Eliza Doolittle’s outburst at Freddy Eysnford-Hill in My Fair Lady:

    “Words, words, words, I’m so sick of words!”

    • Agree: Realist, YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @Lowe
    @Diversity Heretic

    In order to get any more than we got, Trump would have had to arrest Federal judges throughout the land. In order to do that, he would need to ignore SCOTUS and Congress completely, which would require arresting some of them too.

    Which means he would need to control the FBI. Which would require making appointments based on loyalty from the beginning. Which he did not do, even remotely. Trump was not prepared or willing to take extralegal measures. Who can blame him?

    Consider though, that the Wokeist liberals in the service of Deep State and Big Capital, were more than willing to stretch the law to its fullest extent, using FISA wiretaps, leaking classified information, and railroading Trump cabinet officials for nothing-burger crimes. This on top of Federal judge seeing fit to override the Executive.

    You have to admire the tactics and will-to-power of the modern left. There will be no fighting them without going outside the law, just like the Founding Fathers, Lincoln, or FDR. Trump just is not that man.

    Replies: @Diversity Heretic

    , @YetAnotherAnon
    @Diversity Heretic

    "we’ve had three and a half years of Jeb Bush with an aggressive Twitter account"

    On the other hand, Jeb might have started yet more wars, as Hillary would.

    You have to wonder now, if the C-in-C ordered a complete exit from Syria and Afghanistan, would the military obey him?

    , @Jay Fink
    @Diversity Heretic

    I agree but the question is would Biden as President be the same or worse?

  10. Trump appears to have realized that his current trajectory is that of a one-term president. Over the last several days he has issued the first executive order of his time in office that significantly reduces legal immigration into the country, blasted pictures of rioters involved in the attempted toppling of the Andrew Jackson statue near the White House, and gave a fiery, unapologetic speech on the eve of the nation’s independence.

    Way too little…way too late.

  11. @Mr. Rational
    @Twinkie


    Given the increasing demonization of Trumpist views, I think polling is becoming more and more unreliable. On the one hand, many people – including those who voted for him – are disenchanted and disappointed with Trump.
     
    Some of that appears to be changing.  Some long-overdue actions are finally happening.

    On the other hand, the excesses of the radical left and would-be revolutionaries and their mainstream institutional supporters have struck fear into many apolitical people and they may vote for him, viewing him their best chance to check the power of the former.
     
    That does appear to be the case.

    November is untold news cycles from now – we won’t know until the vote.
     
    It looks like the Trumpists are playing that cycle like a violin.  Ghislane Maxwell was finally arrested for pedophilic crimes associated with Epstein.  Give things another month and see what happens, eh?

    Replies: @nebulafox, @Realist, @dfordoom

    Some of that appears to be changing. Some long-overdue actions are finally happening.

    Name one….that is action…not talk.

    It looks like the Trumpists are playing that cycle like a violin. Ghislane Maxwell was finally arrested for pedophilic crimes associated with Epstein. Give things another month and see what happens, eh?

    This country’s problems are a hell of a lot more significant than Ghislaine Maxwell. Let me know when asshole Trump has Hillary arrested.

  12. PredictIt is betting with play money (max allowed total amount, I believe, is $800). It’s where you go to root for your candidate. You should check the betting sites in Great Britain (still illegal for US citizens, but for others, the bet size is not limited). A couple of weeks ago they had Trump slightly ahead.

    • Replies: @Pericles
    @Jamie_NYC

    Betting or prediction markets are too thin to make honest predictions so I tend to ignore them, for that purpose at least.

  13. The status of the Covid virus in November may be the decisive factor. Turnout is going to be affected and if the virus is rampant the Democrats are going to have trouble getting the black underclass to the polls. Mail in ballots in Dem run states can get around this but it doesn’t matter if the Dems get 90% of the vote in NY or California but they can’t get away with this in the swing states. The death toll matters too as the highest toll is taking place in Democrat cities. Trump carried Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by the slimmest of margins . As of today Philadelphia has 1610 dead, Detroit 1448 and Milwaukee 391 Those are likely Democrat voters who will not be voting in November.

    Then there is the economic impact. The moratorium on evictions and foreclosures are going to end and play havoc with voting. If you are evicted you may not be able to vote without re-registering at a new address. The Democrats will try and cheat but if you ain’t living where you used to and the Democrats don’t know where you are currently living its going to be hard to send you a ballot. Millions of people could be evicted by November. If colleges and universities remain closed how many students can be rounded up to vote and where will they be registered?

    • Replies: @Hibernian
    @unit472


    As of today Philadelphia has 1610 dead, Detroit 1448 and Milwaukee 391
     
    All of whom will continue voting for years to come.
  14. Republicans can win the presidency by running as representatives of the middle class but Trump can’t do that now because the goal of his economic program for the last four years has been to boost stock prices. That primarily benefits the wealthy since the wealthiest ten percent of the population own eighty percent of the stocks. He combined this with continuing to waste several hundred billion dollars a year on a bloated military the country can no longer afford and picking warmongers like Bolton to staff his administration.

    The country had actually been trending away from both liberalism and mainstream conservatism in recent years. This started in 2008 with the surprising enthusiasm for a Ron Paul candidacy in the primaries, followed by the tea party movement, followed by the Republicans gaining control of the House in 2010. The Republicans probably would have won the presidency in 2012 but they picked a poor candidate so they had to wait until they got a better one in 2016.

    There is still a middle class in this country the Republicans can appeal to but Trump with his now tarnished reputation isn’t the one to do it. The window of opportunity is closing, though, because the Democrats are attempting to destroy what is left of the middle class. The lockdowns of businesses were aimed at destroying the small business owners who make up a lot of the middle class and this was followed by the Democrats encouraging the inner city underclass to loot and burn down these same businesses. At the same time they are doing this, they are also increasing their voter base with their welfare and immigration policies.

  15. I’m actually surprised Joe Not Trump Biden isn’t more ahead in the betting markets, maybe something like 3 or 4 to 1 at this point. But for my wager on predictit I made sure to bet against Trump winning, not a bet for Biden to win because I still feel its possible for someone else to be the actual Dem nominee.

  16. Lowe says:
    @Diversity Heretic
    The problem for at least some of us who supported Trump in 2015-2016 is that we've had three and a half years of Jeb Bush with an aggressive Twitter account. I'm reminded of Eliza Doolittle's outburst at Freddy Eysnford-Hill in My Fair Lady:

    "Words, words, words, I'm so sick of words!"

    Replies: @Lowe, @YetAnotherAnon, @Jay Fink

    In order to get any more than we got, Trump would have had to arrest Federal judges throughout the land. In order to do that, he would need to ignore SCOTUS and Congress completely, which would require arresting some of them too.

    Which means he would need to control the FBI. Which would require making appointments based on loyalty from the beginning. Which he did not do, even remotely. Trump was not prepared or willing to take extralegal measures. Who can blame him?

    Consider though, that the Wokeist liberals in the service of Deep State and Big Capital, were more than willing to stretch the law to its fullest extent, using FISA wiretaps, leaking classified information, and railroading Trump cabinet officials for nothing-burger crimes. This on top of Federal judge seeing fit to override the Executive.

    You have to admire the tactics and will-to-power of the modern left. There will be no fighting them without going outside the law, just like the Founding Fathers, Lincoln, or FDR. Trump just is not that man.

    • Replies: @Diversity Heretic
    @Lowe

    There"s a lot of truth in your comment, but I demur on a couple of points. Trump didn't need to arrest federal judges, just ignore them. The Repulican Party controlled both houses of Congress for the first two years so there would have been no impeachment; And Trump staffed from the swamp and then wondered why he couldn't drain it. I understand Bolton; Sheldon Adelsonson forced that on him. But Nicky Haley was a Never Trumper! For me the most telling appointment was Calista Gingrich to be ambassadress to the Vatican: a Washington insider whose only qualification was her marriage to Newt Gingrich (his 3rd, IIRC). At that point I knew Trump wasn't serious about any genuine change.

    Your point about having to act outside the law is, sadly, correct. I think the Left is fully prepared to do this (and probably already has). We'll have a Pinochet of the Left.

    Replies: @Mr. Rational

  17. Nation of Settlers: “Can we discuss whether I want to include you in my body politic after you’ve stopped raping me?”

    Nation of Immigrants: “STFU racist.”

    Nation of settlers: {disables life support infrastructures until demographics permit a political voice}

    • LOL: Mr. Rational
  18. @nebulafox
    @Mr. Rational

    I mean, I could be wrong. It has happened before. Remember 2016?

    But I'd be more willing to buy the idea that Trump's support is being underrported enough that he pulls off another Rust Belt victory, with the way the Democrats are going... if it wasn't for COVID. Look at incumbent Presidents who lost elections in modern history: Carter, Bush I. Neither of them presiding over anything that impacted Americans to this degree. No amount of left-wing misbehavior can hide the fact that Trump screwed the pooch on it big-time, especially during the first few months. But even recently: holding a massive closed-door rally without any masks? Really?

    Yes, Carlson called COVID while Kushner labeled it "fake news", so this isn't about the populists getting it wrong-they were the ones to get it right, on both sides of the political spectrum if you look at guys like Stoller. But who appointed Kushner to a position of authority in the first place? That the protests are responsible for the current surge is true, but irrelevant: Trump's going to get the first portion of the political blame, because the buck did stop with him earlier this year and he failed to rise to the challenge.

    Replies: @Intelligent Dasein, @Jane Plain, @SFG

    That the protests are responsible for the current surge is true, but irrelevant:

    1) There is no surge, and; 2) You are drastically overestimating the size of the protests, justifying fake news with fake news.

  19. There is one simple thing that Trump could do right now which would absolutely guarantee him a second term. All he has to do is apologize.

    He just needs to tell his base that he’s sorry that he misunderstood their concerns and that he didn’t fight for them harder. If he does that, he’s a lock.

    I know Trump has a thing about apologizing, but there is a Q-anon-like faction here who insists that Tucker Carlson reads this blog and that Tucker has Trump’s ear, so just in case that’s true, I’m going to send this message in a bottle out to the world.

    Donald Trump, please apologize and promise to represent your supporters better in the future. Do this and you will win a second term.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Intelligent Dasein


    There is one simple thing that Trump could do right now which would absolutely guarantee him a second term. All he has to do is apologize.

    He just needs to tell his base that he’s sorry that he misunderstood their concerns and that he didn’t fight for them harder. If he does that, he’s a lock.
     
    Unfortunately, the Fake Stream Media makes that impossible. Any Trump "apology" would be misrepresented and weaponized against him.

    Trump's better strategy is to finishing locking in the H1B/OPT restrictions for the long haul. That is the #1 campaign point from 2016 that remains unfulfilled. He will reenergize his base with this one action.

    Temporary limits are already helping the salary of U.S. Citizens (1):

    With H1B visas out of the picture, something has to give. Initially, that something is likely to be pay at banks, which will need to be competitive to win students back from technology firms. However, over time technology firms are likely to hike pay too. It’s good news if you’re the sort of highly technical U.S. student everyone wants to hire now.
     
    Trying to work on trade (China) and visas (India) simultaneously had huge risks if the two nations coordinated their resistance. The recent hostility in China-India relations gives Trump the opportunity to restrict/end the visa classes that U.S. employers are abusing.

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/07/03/report-trumps-visa-suspension-to-drive-up-wages-for-u-s-professionals/
    , @Diversity Heretic
    @Intelligent Dasein

    Fool me once, shame on you! Fool me twice, shame on me!

    Actions speak louder than words.

  20. A123 says:
    @Intelligent Dasein
    There is one simple thing that Trump could do right now which would absolutely guarantee him a second term. All he has to do is apologize.

    He just needs to tell his base that he's sorry that he misunderstood their concerns and that he didn't fight for them harder. If he does that, he's a lock.

    I know Trump has a thing about apologizing, but there is a Q-anon-like faction here who insists that Tucker Carlson reads this blog and that Tucker has Trump's ear, so just in case that's true, I'm going to send this message in a bottle out to the world.

    Donald Trump, please apologize and promise to represent your supporters better in the future. Do this and you will win a second term.

    Replies: @A123, @Diversity Heretic

    There is one simple thing that Trump could do right now which would absolutely guarantee him a second term. All he has to do is apologize.

    He just needs to tell his base that he’s sorry that he misunderstood their concerns and that he didn’t fight for them harder. If he does that, he’s a lock.

    Unfortunately, the Fake Stream Media makes that impossible. Any Trump “apology” would be misrepresented and weaponized against him.

    Trump’s better strategy is to finishing locking in the H1B/OPT restrictions for the long haul. That is the #1 campaign point from 2016 that remains unfulfilled. He will reenergize his base with this one action.

    Temporary limits are already helping the salary of U.S. Citizens (1):

    With H1B visas out of the picture, something has to give. Initially, that something is likely to be pay at banks, which will need to be competitive to win students back from technology firms. However, over time technology firms are likely to hike pay too. It’s good news if you’re the sort of highly technical U.S. student everyone wants to hire now.

    Trying to work on trade (China) and visas (India) simultaneously had huge risks if the two nations coordinated their resistance. The recent hostility in China-India relations gives Trump the opportunity to restrict/end the visa classes that U.S. employers are abusing.

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/07/03/report-trumps-visa-suspension-to-drive-up-wages-for-u-s-professionals/

  21. Its too late for trump.

    He ignored and belittled his base in a futile attempt to appeal to his enemies.

    The people who put him into office in 2016 no longer trust him.

    And Biden, for all the very real (and very dangerous) failings of his potential presidency, is not hated or despised by anyone. Not even the right.

    At least trump got to meet kanye, though. That’s something.

    • Replies: @Justvisiting
    @allahu akbar

    Trump's greatest asset--and what imho makes it likely he gets re-elected--is Joe Biden.

    Biden is non compos mentis--totally, completely, absolutely.

    The US has never seen a presidential candidate like this--not even close.

    Biden has had mass media protection to this point.

    When Biden emerges from his basement, he will make Trump look brilliant and inspirational by comparison.

    This election will be a race to the bottom--and Biden will be the bottom b*&^% when it is over.

    (For those who claim the Democrats will figure it out, and replace Biden before election day--they need to do their homework on the way ballots work in the various states--as long as Trump holds off the serious attacks until well into October, it will be too late for the Democrats to get a new name on most ballots.)

    , @Hibernian
    @allahu akbar


    And Biden, for all the very real (and very dangerous) failings of his potential presidency, is not hated or despised by anyone. Not even the right.
     
    I wouldn't be so sure about that.
    , @Twinkie
    @allahu akbar


    And Biden, for all the very real (and very dangerous) failings of his potential presidency, is not hated or despised by anyone. Not even the right.
     
    But he might be universally pitied if he were to look like a senile imbecile in a public appearance (debate, rally, speech, etc.).

    And being pitied is worse than being hated or despised in politics.
    , @follyofwar
    @allahu akbar

    "Biden ... is not hated or despised by anyone."

    I won't use the word hate, as I try not to hate anyone.

    But I definitely DESPISE Biden!

  22. @Diversity Heretic
    The problem for at least some of us who supported Trump in 2015-2016 is that we've had three and a half years of Jeb Bush with an aggressive Twitter account. I'm reminded of Eliza Doolittle's outburst at Freddy Eysnford-Hill in My Fair Lady:

    "Words, words, words, I'm so sick of words!"

    Replies: @Lowe, @YetAnotherAnon, @Jay Fink

    “we’ve had three and a half years of Jeb Bush with an aggressive Twitter account”

    On the other hand, Jeb might have started yet more wars, as Hillary would.

    You have to wonder now, if the C-in-C ordered a complete exit from Syria and Afghanistan, would the military obey him?

  23. Time to see what the latest regs say about losing US citizenship.

  24. @unit472
    The status of the Covid virus in November may be the decisive factor. Turnout is going to be affected and if the virus is rampant the Democrats are going to have trouble getting the black underclass to the polls. Mail in ballots in Dem run states can get around this but it doesn't matter if the Dems get 90% of the vote in NY or California but they can't get away with this in the swing states. The death toll matters too as the highest toll is taking place in Democrat cities. Trump carried Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by the slimmest of margins . As of today Philadelphia has 1610 dead, Detroit 1448 and Milwaukee 391 Those are likely Democrat voters who will not be voting in November.

    Then there is the economic impact. The moratorium on evictions and foreclosures are going to end and play havoc with voting. If you are evicted you may not be able to vote without re-registering at a new address. The Democrats will try and cheat but if you ain't living where you used to and the Democrats don't know where you are currently living its going to be hard to send you a ballot. Millions of people could be evicted by November. If colleges and universities remain closed how many students can be rounded up to vote and where will they be registered?

    Replies: @Hibernian

    As of today Philadelphia has 1610 dead, Detroit 1448 and Milwaukee 391

    All of whom will continue voting for years to come.

  25. @Lowe
    @Diversity Heretic

    In order to get any more than we got, Trump would have had to arrest Federal judges throughout the land. In order to do that, he would need to ignore SCOTUS and Congress completely, which would require arresting some of them too.

    Which means he would need to control the FBI. Which would require making appointments based on loyalty from the beginning. Which he did not do, even remotely. Trump was not prepared or willing to take extralegal measures. Who can blame him?

    Consider though, that the Wokeist liberals in the service of Deep State and Big Capital, were more than willing to stretch the law to its fullest extent, using FISA wiretaps, leaking classified information, and railroading Trump cabinet officials for nothing-burger crimes. This on top of Federal judge seeing fit to override the Executive.

    You have to admire the tactics and will-to-power of the modern left. There will be no fighting them without going outside the law, just like the Founding Fathers, Lincoln, or FDR. Trump just is not that man.

    Replies: @Diversity Heretic

    There”s a lot of truth in your comment, but I demur on a couple of points. Trump didn’t need to arrest federal judges, just ignore them. The Repulican Party controlled both houses of Congress for the first two years so there would have been no impeachment; And Trump staffed from the swamp and then wondered why he couldn’t drain it. I understand Bolton; Sheldon Adelsonson forced that on him. But Nicky Haley was a Never Trumper! For me the most telling appointment was Calista Gingrich to be ambassadress to the Vatican: a Washington insider whose only qualification was her marriage to Newt Gingrich (his 3rd, IIRC). At that point I knew Trump wasn’t serious about any genuine change.

    Your point about having to act outside the law is, sadly, correct. I think the Left is fully prepared to do this (and probably already has). We’ll have a Pinochet of the Left.

    • Replies: @Mr. Rational
    @Diversity Heretic


    Nicky Haley was a Never Trumper!
     
    She was maneuvered out of a governorship into a do-nothing UN post, and then replaced.  That was a masterful piece of gamesmanship.
  26. @Intelligent Dasein
    There is one simple thing that Trump could do right now which would absolutely guarantee him a second term. All he has to do is apologize.

    He just needs to tell his base that he's sorry that he misunderstood their concerns and that he didn't fight for them harder. If he does that, he's a lock.

    I know Trump has a thing about apologizing, but there is a Q-anon-like faction here who insists that Tucker Carlson reads this blog and that Tucker has Trump's ear, so just in case that's true, I'm going to send this message in a bottle out to the world.

    Donald Trump, please apologize and promise to represent your supporters better in the future. Do this and you will win a second term.

    Replies: @A123, @Diversity Heretic

    Fool me once, shame on you! Fool me twice, shame on me!

    Actions speak louder than words.

  27. Anon[336] • Disclaimer says:

    If Biden wins, but we go into a real depression after 9 months of corona-suppression anyway, plus real conflicts with Russia/Syria/China/Venezuala/Iran/Ukraine, Israel annexes the West Bank, and corporate America resumes shuttering plants and sending production back to Asia. ………….
    ………..I wonder if some of BLM/antifa folks will begin to feel used like a old pair of work shoes?

    • Replies: @Diversity Heretic
    @Anon

    There are only a very few Antifa/BLM protestors who know what "work shoes" are.

    And no, they won't feel used by TPTB; they'll simply continue directing their hatred towards whites, who will be accused of secretely sabotaging the system.

  28. @Mr. Rational
    @Twinkie


    Given the increasing demonization of Trumpist views, I think polling is becoming more and more unreliable. On the one hand, many people – including those who voted for him – are disenchanted and disappointed with Trump.
     
    Some of that appears to be changing.  Some long-overdue actions are finally happening.

    On the other hand, the excesses of the radical left and would-be revolutionaries and their mainstream institutional supporters have struck fear into many apolitical people and they may vote for him, viewing him their best chance to check the power of the former.
     
    That does appear to be the case.

    November is untold news cycles from now – we won’t know until the vote.
     
    It looks like the Trumpists are playing that cycle like a violin.  Ghislane Maxwell was finally arrested for pedophilic crimes associated with Epstein.  Give things another month and see what happens, eh?

    Replies: @nebulafox, @Realist, @dfordoom

    Has there ever been a case, in any country, of an incumbent leader or government being re-elected with an economy completely in the toilet? Whether it’s fair not not, when the economy goes down the gurgler the voters take it out on the incumbent government.

    So unless Trump can produce an economic miracle before November it’s hard to see him being re-elected.

    When the economy goes really bad then the economy becomes overwhelmingly the most important election issue.

    Trump’s COVID-19 bungling is of course one of the main reasons for the economic disaster so in that respect his mishandling of that issue is going to cost him.

    • Replies: @Diversity Heretic
    @dfordoom

    Colman Young was elected again and again as mayor of Detroit as the economy of the city spiraled down. And the economy wasn't all that great shakes in 1940 at the time of Franklin Roosevelt's election for a third term. Most historians think that the threat of war, and the relatively weak candidacy of Wendell Willkie provided the impetus for the third term.

    Replies: @dfordoom

    , @Louis Renault
    @dfordoom

    Has there ever been an example where a country shut off it's entire economy - of individual business owners - over an over hyped health issue? How many of the 4 million or so we expect to die every 6 months (8 million per year, check the CDC) have been killed by this virus? That is not what that shut down was over, getting trump removed is.

  29. @Not Only Wrathful
    @Ash Williams


    The Woke Inc. provide Esteem Needs
     
    It provides a very empty illusion of esteem needs. This is why the treadmill has to spin ever faster.

    Replies: @Ash Williams

    It provides a very empty illusion of esteem needs. This is why the treadmill has to spin ever faster.

    Yes, but I think it’s even worse than that because of why the treadmill has to increase in speed. It’s more like a crackhead jonesing for his next hit. Once one goal is met, another more extreme one is created, ad infinitum.

    This is likely due to Marx popularizing the idea of “permanent revolution”, and instilling the principle of never being satisfied in the shriveled hearts and minds of Communists everywhere.

    • Replies: @dfordoom
    @Ash Williams


    This is likely due to Marx popularizing the idea of “permanent revolution”, and instilling the principle of never being satisfied in the shriveled hearts and minds of Communists everywhere.
     
    Actual it's a function of liberalism (and I mean liberalism in the broadest sense so that includes most modern "conservatives"). The very essence of liberalism is the cult of social progress. Pretty much all "conservatives" are devotees of that cult as well.
    , @Not Only Wrathful
    @Ash Williams

    Marx didn't invent trying to complete yourself through politics. That's silly. Nor did he invent trying to complete yourself through ideology, or externalising your issues.

    Interestingly though, Marxism is well-suited as a metaphor for a theory of the mind. This is maybe why it is so effective at attracting people who do.

    For example, its identifying of the substructure of material relations as the unknown driving force for all of the abstract rationalisation, which we think creates society, has parallels with the unconscious and the conscious.

    So too, does its stages of development have parallels with the stages of individual human development.

    Feudalism is a natural, infantile state typified by organic power relations, as with the family. This then inevitably grows up into something more abstract and alienating.

    Capitalism is the stage of the extreme division of labour and rationalism. It is necessary because it builds the persona and the society which needs to be sacrificed later.

    Socialism is the dark night of the soul, in which the spirit reasserts itself, in a seeming dictatorship, but which is for the best of every part of the person. It is a traumatic restoration.

    Communism is a utopian state full of enlightened beings, where the spirit is fully restored but within the structure of awareness that often comes with maturity. The people therefore need no political structure because they can just be and get along. They are the new Communist man, full of spirit and conscious of everything.

    , @HallParvey
    @Ash Williams


    This is likely due to Marx popularizing the idea of “permanent revolution”,
     
    That is the same as the concept of ongoing evolution. There is nothing that forbids evolution running in circles. i.e. the cycles of life. One thing leads to another, more or less, like clockwork.

    The phases of political existence are well known, except in the University Industry of the west. Just as nature abhors a vacuum, so too does she abhor a static condition.

    Change is inevitable. The best we can hope for is that it leads to improvement. Unfortunately, that happens only half the time. Maybe. If we're lucky.
  30. @Ash Williams
    @Not Only Wrathful


    It provides a very empty illusion of esteem needs. This is why the treadmill has to spin ever faster.
     
    Yes, but I think it's even worse than that because of why the treadmill has to increase in speed. It's more like a crackhead jonesing for his next hit. Once one goal is met, another more extreme one is created, ad infinitum.

    This is likely due to Marx popularizing the idea of "permanent revolution", and instilling the principle of never being satisfied in the shriveled hearts and minds of Communists everywhere.

    Replies: @dfordoom, @Not Only Wrathful, @HallParvey

    This is likely due to Marx popularizing the idea of “permanent revolution”, and instilling the principle of never being satisfied in the shriveled hearts and minds of Communists everywhere.

    Actual it’s a function of liberalism (and I mean liberalism in the broadest sense so that includes most modern “conservatives”). The very essence of liberalism is the cult of social progress. Pretty much all “conservatives” are devotees of that cult as well.

  31. @allahu akbar
    Its too late for trump.

    He ignored and belittled his base in a futile attempt to appeal to his enemies.

    The people who put him into office in 2016 no longer trust him.

    And Biden, for all the very real (and very dangerous) failings of his potential presidency, is not hated or despised by anyone. Not even the right.

    At least trump got to meet kanye, though. That's something.

    Replies: @Justvisiting, @Hibernian, @Twinkie, @follyofwar

    Trump’s greatest asset–and what imho makes it likely he gets re-elected–is Joe Biden.

    Biden is non compos mentis–totally, completely, absolutely.

    The US has never seen a presidential candidate like this–not even close.

    Biden has had mass media protection to this point.

    When Biden emerges from his basement, he will make Trump look brilliant and inspirational by comparison.

    This election will be a race to the bottom–and Biden will be the bottom b*&^% when it is over.

    (For those who claim the Democrats will figure it out, and replace Biden before election day–they need to do their homework on the way ballots work in the various states–as long as Trump holds off the serious attacks until well into October, it will be too late for the Democrats to get a new name on most ballots.)

  32. All garbage. I think Trump is doing well, and will have no problem being re-elected (barring vote fraud). Audie Baby’s track record of predictions is so bad that his predictions are almost a perfect contrarian indicator (sort of like Paul Krugman).

    If the election is fair, Trump will win, as he should.

    At no time in recent memory has a VP choice mattered more than it will in Biden’s case, and he is certain to choose someone terrible that tanks his prospects.

    Plus, incumbents usually get most or all of the votes that the third-party candidate got the previous time. Gary Johnson got 3% of the vote, which was larger than the margin between Trump and Hillary in a couple of states Hillary narrowly won. I think Trump will carry those states on top of all his previous ones.

  33. @nebulafox
    @Mr. Rational

    I mean, I could be wrong. It has happened before. Remember 2016?

    But I'd be more willing to buy the idea that Trump's support is being underrported enough that he pulls off another Rust Belt victory, with the way the Democrats are going... if it wasn't for COVID. Look at incumbent Presidents who lost elections in modern history: Carter, Bush I. Neither of them presiding over anything that impacted Americans to this degree. No amount of left-wing misbehavior can hide the fact that Trump screwed the pooch on it big-time, especially during the first few months. But even recently: holding a massive closed-door rally without any masks? Really?

    Yes, Carlson called COVID while Kushner labeled it "fake news", so this isn't about the populists getting it wrong-they were the ones to get it right, on both sides of the political spectrum if you look at guys like Stoller. But who appointed Kushner to a position of authority in the first place? That the protests are responsible for the current surge is true, but irrelevant: Trump's going to get the first portion of the political blame, because the buck did stop with him earlier this year and he failed to rise to the challenge.

    Replies: @Intelligent Dasein, @Jane Plain, @SFG

    But I’d be more willing to buy the idea that Trump’s support is being underrported

    Or that a lot of his supporters are enraged at his fumbling of COVID and lack of response to the riots, but they can be persuaded back when they see Demented, Feeble Old Uncle Joe, and continued unrest drives them back.

    About COVID, I think he fumbled something that could have been leveraged to his advantage but it’s a done deal. What will be, will be. Americans are, despite their reputation for being soft, tough and stoic.

    About the riots, I was enraged at his lack of response but I’m more forgiving now. If one hair on the head of a demonstrator had been harmed, he would have been Worse Than Hitler. So I think he was right to let the Democratic cities burn, and draw the line at Old Hickory in Lafayette Park.

    Now. We haven’t seen Joe Biden come out of his basement, have we? He will have to do so eventually, and his feebleness will be crushingly apparent. Hopefully we’ll have a few debates and Trump will lay him out.

    And then there are unforeseen events. Like more of this. They stopped and interrogated white motorists. Maybe next time someone will respond.

    • Replies: @HallParvey
    @Jane Plain


    Or that a lot of his supporters are enraged at his fumbling of COVID and lack of response to the riots
     
    True. But let's be honest. Trump is NOT Jesus, or God, or even the King. He aint perfect.

    But what's the alternative? Joe Biden? His Vice Presidential nominee?

    Replies: @Jane Plain

  34. @allahu akbar
    Its too late for trump.

    He ignored and belittled his base in a futile attempt to appeal to his enemies.

    The people who put him into office in 2016 no longer trust him.

    And Biden, for all the very real (and very dangerous) failings of his potential presidency, is not hated or despised by anyone. Not even the right.

    At least trump got to meet kanye, though. That's something.

    Replies: @Justvisiting, @Hibernian, @Twinkie, @follyofwar

    And Biden, for all the very real (and very dangerous) failings of his potential presidency, is not hated or despised by anyone. Not even the right.

    I wouldn’t be so sure about that.

  35. @Diversity Heretic
    The problem for at least some of us who supported Trump in 2015-2016 is that we've had three and a half years of Jeb Bush with an aggressive Twitter account. I'm reminded of Eliza Doolittle's outburst at Freddy Eysnford-Hill in My Fair Lady:

    "Words, words, words, I'm so sick of words!"

    Replies: @Lowe, @YetAnotherAnon, @Jay Fink

    I agree but the question is would Biden as President be the same or worse?

  36. @Ash Williams
    @Not Only Wrathful


    It provides a very empty illusion of esteem needs. This is why the treadmill has to spin ever faster.
     
    Yes, but I think it's even worse than that because of why the treadmill has to increase in speed. It's more like a crackhead jonesing for his next hit. Once one goal is met, another more extreme one is created, ad infinitum.

    This is likely due to Marx popularizing the idea of "permanent revolution", and instilling the principle of never being satisfied in the shriveled hearts and minds of Communists everywhere.

    Replies: @dfordoom, @Not Only Wrathful, @HallParvey

    Marx didn’t invent trying to complete yourself through politics. That’s silly. Nor did he invent trying to complete yourself through ideology, or externalising your issues.

    Interestingly though, Marxism is well-suited as a metaphor for a theory of the mind. This is maybe why it is so effective at attracting people who do.

    For example, its identifying of the substructure of material relations as the unknown driving force for all of the abstract rationalisation, which we think creates society, has parallels with the unconscious and the conscious.

    So too, does its stages of development have parallels with the stages of individual human development.

    Feudalism is a natural, infantile state typified by organic power relations, as with the family. This then inevitably grows up into something more abstract and alienating.

    Capitalism is the stage of the extreme division of labour and rationalism. It is necessary because it builds the persona and the society which needs to be sacrificed later.

    Socialism is the dark night of the soul, in which the spirit reasserts itself, in a seeming dictatorship, but which is for the best of every part of the person. It is a traumatic restoration.

    Communism is a utopian state full of enlightened beings, where the spirit is fully restored but within the structure of awareness that often comes with maturity. The people therefore need no political structure because they can just be and get along. They are the new Communist man, full of spirit and conscious of everything.

  37. @allahu akbar
    Its too late for trump.

    He ignored and belittled his base in a futile attempt to appeal to his enemies.

    The people who put him into office in 2016 no longer trust him.

    And Biden, for all the very real (and very dangerous) failings of his potential presidency, is not hated or despised by anyone. Not even the right.

    At least trump got to meet kanye, though. That's something.

    Replies: @Justvisiting, @Hibernian, @Twinkie, @follyofwar

    And Biden, for all the very real (and very dangerous) failings of his potential presidency, is not hated or despised by anyone. Not even the right.

    But he might be universally pitied if he were to look like a senile imbecile in a public appearance (debate, rally, speech, etc.).

    And being pitied is worse than being hated or despised in politics.

    • Agree: Hibernian
  38. @Jamie_NYC
    PredictIt is betting with play money (max allowed total amount, I believe, is $800). It's where you go to root for your candidate. You should check the betting sites in Great Britain (still illegal for US citizens, but for others, the bet size is not limited). A couple of weeks ago they had Trump slightly ahead.

    Replies: @Pericles

    Betting or prediction markets are too thin to make honest predictions so I tend to ignore them, for that purpose at least.

  39. For what it’s worth, which admittedly may not be not much, my middle class globalist managerial striver acquaintances in Sweden, who have hated Trump since the election, are now openly gloating. So I guess they are hearing it’s a done deal.

    • Replies: @Hibernian
    @Pericles

    Was there similar open gloating in October 2016?

    Replies: @Pericles

  40. SFG says:
    @nebulafox
    @Mr. Rational

    I mean, I could be wrong. It has happened before. Remember 2016?

    But I'd be more willing to buy the idea that Trump's support is being underrported enough that he pulls off another Rust Belt victory, with the way the Democrats are going... if it wasn't for COVID. Look at incumbent Presidents who lost elections in modern history: Carter, Bush I. Neither of them presiding over anything that impacted Americans to this degree. No amount of left-wing misbehavior can hide the fact that Trump screwed the pooch on it big-time, especially during the first few months. But even recently: holding a massive closed-door rally without any masks? Really?

    Yes, Carlson called COVID while Kushner labeled it "fake news", so this isn't about the populists getting it wrong-they were the ones to get it right, on both sides of the political spectrum if you look at guys like Stoller. But who appointed Kushner to a position of authority in the first place? That the protests are responsible for the current surge is true, but irrelevant: Trump's going to get the first portion of the political blame, because the buck did stop with him earlier this year and he failed to rise to the challenge.

    Replies: @Intelligent Dasein, @Jane Plain, @SFG

    Unfortunately, the mainstream right picked the wrong side of the mask controversy.

    Sure lots of dissident right bloggers were calling for masks early, but that’s not the way it panned out once this became a culture-war issue (because EVERYTHING is left versus right in this country now). There were lots of blue-collar red-state people protesting for their right to reopen because this was only affecting New York. Trump gained temporary advantage by standing with them on this issue…but now this thing’s spread to the red states and, well, Trump looks foolish.

    He’s still got four months to turn it around I guess. He’s really good at shifting with the winds. Unfortunately, 100K+ dead people are hard to undo.

  41. @allahu akbar
    Its too late for trump.

    He ignored and belittled his base in a futile attempt to appeal to his enemies.

    The people who put him into office in 2016 no longer trust him.

    And Biden, for all the very real (and very dangerous) failings of his potential presidency, is not hated or despised by anyone. Not even the right.

    At least trump got to meet kanye, though. That's something.

    Replies: @Justvisiting, @Hibernian, @Twinkie, @follyofwar

    “Biden … is not hated or despised by anyone.”

    I won’t use the word hate, as I try not to hate anyone.

    But I definitely DESPISE Biden!

  42. @Pericles
    For what it's worth, which admittedly may not be not much, my middle class globalist managerial striver acquaintances in Sweden, who have hated Trump since the election, are now openly gloating. So I guess they are hearing it's a done deal.

    Replies: @Hibernian

    Was there similar open gloating in October 2016?

    • Replies: @Pericles
    @Hibernian

    Not so much gloating as there was ridicule of the unsuitable and clownish candidate Trump. As I judged it, mostly echoing what they heard in the media and from US-based managers.

  43. @Anon
    If Biden wins, but we go into a real depression after 9 months of corona-suppression anyway, plus real conflicts with Russia/Syria/China/Venezuala/Iran/Ukraine, Israel annexes the West Bank, and corporate America resumes shuttering plants and sending production back to Asia. .............
    ...........I wonder if some of BLM/antifa folks will begin to feel used like a old pair of work shoes?

    Replies: @Diversity Heretic

    There are only a very few Antifa/BLM protestors who know what “work shoes” are.

    And no, they won’t feel used by TPTB; they’ll simply continue directing their hatred towards whites, who will be accused of secretely sabotaging the system.

  44. @Ash Williams
    @Not Only Wrathful


    It provides a very empty illusion of esteem needs. This is why the treadmill has to spin ever faster.
     
    Yes, but I think it's even worse than that because of why the treadmill has to increase in speed. It's more like a crackhead jonesing for his next hit. Once one goal is met, another more extreme one is created, ad infinitum.

    This is likely due to Marx popularizing the idea of "permanent revolution", and instilling the principle of never being satisfied in the shriveled hearts and minds of Communists everywhere.

    Replies: @dfordoom, @Not Only Wrathful, @HallParvey

    This is likely due to Marx popularizing the idea of “permanent revolution”,

    That is the same as the concept of ongoing evolution. There is nothing that forbids evolution running in circles. i.e. the cycles of life. One thing leads to another, more or less, like clockwork.

    The phases of political existence are well known, except in the University Industry of the west. Just as nature abhors a vacuum, so too does she abhor a static condition.

    Change is inevitable. The best we can hope for is that it leads to improvement. Unfortunately, that happens only half the time. Maybe. If we’re lucky.

  45. @dfordoom
    @Mr. Rational

    Has there ever been a case, in any country, of an incumbent leader or government being re-elected with an economy completely in the toilet? Whether it's fair not not, when the economy goes down the gurgler the voters take it out on the incumbent government.

    So unless Trump can produce an economic miracle before November it's hard to see him being re-elected.

    When the economy goes really bad then the economy becomes overwhelmingly the most important election issue.

    Trump's COVID-19 bungling is of course one of the main reasons for the economic disaster so in that respect his mishandling of that issue is going to cost him.

    Replies: @Diversity Heretic, @Louis Renault

    Colman Young was elected again and again as mayor of Detroit as the economy of the city spiraled down. And the economy wasn’t all that great shakes in 1940 at the time of Franklin Roosevelt’s election for a third term. Most historians think that the threat of war, and the relatively weak candidacy of Wendell Willkie provided the impetus for the third term.

    • Replies: @dfordoom
    @Diversity Heretic


    Colman Young was elected again and again as mayor of Detroit as the economy of the city spiraled down.
     
    People, rightly or wrongly, are most likely to blame the federal government for economic woes.

    And the economy wasn’t all that great shakes in 1940 at the time of Franklin Roosevelt’s election for a third term. Most historians think that the threat of war, and the relatively weak candidacy of Wendell Willkie provided the impetus for the third term.
     
    Maybe the threat of war with China will propel Trump to a second term. A bit ironic given that the US is the aggressor, but then Americans seem to like being the aggressor. You can never ever under-estimate the stupidity of voters.

    But I still think that it's a monumental task to get re-elected with an economy circling the drain. Roosevelt in 1940 could argue that the economy might not have been great but that things had improved. That's the difficulty for Trump - persuading voters that the economy is getting better.
  46. @Jane Plain
    @nebulafox


    But I’d be more willing to buy the idea that Trump’s support is being underrported
     
    Or that a lot of his supporters are enraged at his fumbling of COVID and lack of response to the riots, but they can be persuaded back when they see Demented, Feeble Old Uncle Joe, and continued unrest drives them back.

    About COVID, I think he fumbled something that could have been leveraged to his advantage but it's a done deal. What will be, will be. Americans are, despite their reputation for being soft, tough and stoic.

    About the riots, I was enraged at his lack of response but I'm more forgiving now. If one hair on the head of a demonstrator had been harmed, he would have been Worse Than Hitler. So I think he was right to let the Democratic cities burn, and draw the line at Old Hickory in Lafayette Park.

    Now. We haven't seen Joe Biden come out of his basement, have we? He will have to do so eventually, and his feebleness will be crushingly apparent. Hopefully we'll have a few debates and Trump will lay him out.

    And then there are unforeseen events. Like more of this. They stopped and interrogated white motorists. Maybe next time someone will respond.

    https://twitter.com/tariqnasheed/status/1279584122956988418

    Replies: @HallParvey

    Or that a lot of his supporters are enraged at his fumbling of COVID and lack of response to the riots

    True. But let’s be honest. Trump is NOT Jesus, or God, or even the King. He aint perfect.

    But what’s the alternative? Joe Biden? His Vice Presidential nominee?

    • Replies: @Jane Plain
    @HallParvey

    That's my point - as the reality of the election nears, the thought of voting Biden/Kamala will push a lot of people who are pissed off at Trump into his camp. She's good at putting people in jail, isn't she? Like you? Like Karen?

    Not to mention what will transpire as Joe is smoked out of his basement. He's clearly semi-incapacitated. Trump is a fat boy now, but his energy level is kind of awesome. Look for him to play that up and mock Joe relentlessly.

    I know that "my friend says" is laughable statistically, but I have several friends who've told me they are voting Trump because of the BLM riots. None of them would have said the same on May 30.

  47. @dfordoom
    @Mr. Rational

    Has there ever been a case, in any country, of an incumbent leader or government being re-elected with an economy completely in the toilet? Whether it's fair not not, when the economy goes down the gurgler the voters take it out on the incumbent government.

    So unless Trump can produce an economic miracle before November it's hard to see him being re-elected.

    When the economy goes really bad then the economy becomes overwhelmingly the most important election issue.

    Trump's COVID-19 bungling is of course one of the main reasons for the economic disaster so in that respect his mishandling of that issue is going to cost him.

    Replies: @Diversity Heretic, @Louis Renault

    Has there ever been an example where a country shut off it’s entire economy – of individual business owners – over an over hyped health issue? How many of the 4 million or so we expect to die every 6 months (8 million per year, check the CDC) have been killed by this virus? That is not what that shut down was over, getting trump removed is.

  48. @Diversity Heretic
    @dfordoom

    Colman Young was elected again and again as mayor of Detroit as the economy of the city spiraled down. And the economy wasn't all that great shakes in 1940 at the time of Franklin Roosevelt's election for a third term. Most historians think that the threat of war, and the relatively weak candidacy of Wendell Willkie provided the impetus for the third term.

    Replies: @dfordoom

    Colman Young was elected again and again as mayor of Detroit as the economy of the city spiraled down.

    People, rightly or wrongly, are most likely to blame the federal government for economic woes.

    And the economy wasn’t all that great shakes in 1940 at the time of Franklin Roosevelt’s election for a third term. Most historians think that the threat of war, and the relatively weak candidacy of Wendell Willkie provided the impetus for the third term.

    Maybe the threat of war with China will propel Trump to a second term. A bit ironic given that the US is the aggressor, but then Americans seem to like being the aggressor. You can never ever under-estimate the stupidity of voters.

    But I still think that it’s a monumental task to get re-elected with an economy circling the drain. Roosevelt in 1940 could argue that the economy might not have been great but that things had improved. That’s the difficulty for Trump – persuading voters that the economy is getting better.

  49. @Hibernian
    @Pericles

    Was there similar open gloating in October 2016?

    Replies: @Pericles

    Not so much gloating as there was ridicule of the unsuitable and clownish candidate Trump. As I judged it, mostly echoing what they heard in the media and from US-based managers.

  50. @Diversity Heretic
    @Lowe

    There"s a lot of truth in your comment, but I demur on a couple of points. Trump didn't need to arrest federal judges, just ignore them. The Repulican Party controlled both houses of Congress for the first two years so there would have been no impeachment; And Trump staffed from the swamp and then wondered why he couldn't drain it. I understand Bolton; Sheldon Adelsonson forced that on him. But Nicky Haley was a Never Trumper! For me the most telling appointment was Calista Gingrich to be ambassadress to the Vatican: a Washington insider whose only qualification was her marriage to Newt Gingrich (his 3rd, IIRC). At that point I knew Trump wasn't serious about any genuine change.

    Your point about having to act outside the law is, sadly, correct. I think the Left is fully prepared to do this (and probably already has). We'll have a Pinochet of the Left.

    Replies: @Mr. Rational

    Nicky Haley was a Never Trumper!

    She was maneuvered out of a governorship into a do-nothing UN post, and then replaced.  That was a masterful piece of gamesmanship.

  51. @HallParvey
    @Jane Plain


    Or that a lot of his supporters are enraged at his fumbling of COVID and lack of response to the riots
     
    True. But let's be honest. Trump is NOT Jesus, or God, or even the King. He aint perfect.

    But what's the alternative? Joe Biden? His Vice Presidential nominee?

    Replies: @Jane Plain

    That’s my point – as the reality of the election nears, the thought of voting Biden/Kamala will push a lot of people who are pissed off at Trump into his camp. She’s good at putting people in jail, isn’t she? Like you? Like Karen?

    Not to mention what will transpire as Joe is smoked out of his basement. He’s clearly semi-incapacitated. Trump is a fat boy now, but his energy level is kind of awesome. Look for him to play that up and mock Joe relentlessly.

    I know that “my friend says” is laughable statistically, but I have several friends who’ve told me they are voting Trump because of the BLM riots. None of them would have said the same on May 30.

  52. I mean, I’m still going to vote for him in 2020.

    I’m just not going to be excited about it. A shame. At this point my vote will be more for stephen miller and my hate for his opponents than anything he’s done.

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