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COTW is originally from SSC but made it’s way here via Anatoly Karlin, the silver standard in journalism on human intelligence. Scott Alexander wrote this in the Fall of 2016:

One more warning for conservatives who still aren’t convinced. If the next generation is radicalized by Trump being a bad president, they’re not just going to lean left. They’re going to lean regressive, totalitarian, super-social-justice left.

Everyone has already constructed the narrative: Trump is the anti-PC, anti-social-justice candidate. If he wins, he’s going to be the anti-PC, anti-social-justice President. And he will fail. First of all, because he doesn’t really show much sign of knowing what he’s doing. Second of all, because all presidents fail in a sense – 80% of Americans consistently believe the country is headed the wrong direction and the president is the natural fall guy for this trend. And third of all, because even if by some miracle Trump avoids the first two failure modes, the media will say he failed and people will believe them. And when the anti-PC, anti-social-justice President fails, the reaction will be a giant “we told you so” from the social justice movement, and a giant shift of all the disillusioned young people right into their fold.

Trump is all set to be the biggest gift to the social justice movement in history. They thrive on claims of persecution, claims that they’re the ones fighting a stupid hateful regressive culture that controls everything. And people think that bringing their straw man to life and putting him in the Oval Office is going to help?

Maybe. From someone who spends an inordinate amount of time combing through surveys and polling, though, there is a glaring problem–the Great Awokening began years before Trump announced his candidacy, let alone won the presidency. It’s detectable in the GSS in 2012 and definitely by 2014. Did Trump send SJWs into high tension mode or was he made possible by it?

Trump also thrives on claims of persecution. Almost uniquely among Republicans, he instinctively understands that we are in neither an honor culture nor a dignity culture. We are in a victim culture. “So unfair!”, “Presidential harassment!”, “Witch hunt!”. Wokeists claim they’re being persecuted, but so does Trump–and it works.

At some point very soon, those on the right will have to start responding to accusations of racism, etc not with impotent denials or lame accusations about how it’s really the Democrats who are racist against non-whites, but by firing back that the left hates white people. There are fairly mainstream black figures who’ve been quite successful doing this–Candace Owens, Jesse Lee Peterson, Jon Miller–and mainstream white conservatives will start doing the same.

 
• Category: Culture/Society • Tags: COTW, Donald Trump, Election 2020 
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  1. As I wrote under that comment under your other post, A.E. that 3rd failure mode is bogus. The 2nd one by Scott Alexander is not even understandable to me. The 1st failure mode is enough though. “He doesn’t really show much sign of knowing what he’s doing.”

    Yes, as you say, the guy can speak back in the victimization language of the times and doesn’t concern himself with honor and dignity too much. That’s fine, but he fails by not backing up what he says with any action. One thing a sense of honor does is have you keeping your word. President Trump hardly ever keeps his word. (I know, it’s not like the last 4 guys have either.)

  2. 216 says: • Website

    There are fairly mainstream black figures who’ve been quite successful doing this–Candace Owens, Jesse Lee Peterson, Jon Miller–and mainstream white conservatives will start doing the same.

    The key here is black.

    Electorally this has some significance, as younger blacks (lower turnout, higher incarceration) are less hostile to the GOP than their elders.

    Raising the GOP take from ~10% to ~15% is significant enough to lock up the Midwest. ~20% is enough to make Illinois or Bust work.

    But that only black voices are doing this is significant. Hispanic and Asian voices have yet to join. Possibly because “revealed preference white guilt” that benefits “based blacks” doesn’t work for them.

    Otoh, there could be “revealed preference neoliberalism” at work here, silently condemning whites for not working hard enough.

    But the GOP establishment really doesn’t want to accomodate any more working class voters, IMO. Increased black votes for the GOP will inevitably draw the party leftwards on fiscal policy, a cause to which I have some sympathy.

    The GOP badly wants to be the party of the upper middle class striver, and pretended for decades that Hispanics would become this. The Asians who actually represent this strand of thinking now appear more leftist than ever.

    • Replies: @indocon
    @216

    "Raising the GOP take from ~10% to ~15% is significant enough to lock up the Midwest. ~20% is enough to make Illinois or Bust work."

    Will not happen brother, never.

    , @Audacious Epigone
    @216

    In case it's not clear, I'm referring to blacks accusing the Democrat party of being racist against whites, not racist against blacks (though of course they do this as well).

    , @nymom
    @216

    Actually I think it may be the opposite.

    Younger black population is much more hostile to the GOP (and the white population) in general than the older black generation ever was...

    The older black population is starting to realize if we continue along our current trajectory listening to the younger generation, both black and white, the US could become another Haiti or even South Africa...I'm not sure which will ultimately prove to be worse.

    Remember when this started in the 60s, no state in Africa had been on its own for any length of time and Haiti was seen as an aberration... So there was nothing to measure majority black rule by except history; which, clearly was written by historians wearing rose-colored glasses, to say the least.

    A quick glance at every major city in the US controlled by a significant black population even now shows the dysfunction pretty clearly as every one of them from NY to LA is a complete and utter mess.

    So I don't think your analysis correct. Worse it could be more serious than we realize as the older black population ages out of the picture and the younger one takes over, things could get a whole lot worse....ie., ANC under Nelson Madela versus EFF under Julius Malema...

  3. 216 says: • Website

    Contd

    “Illinois or Bust” was expanded by our host to “Illinois, Oregon and Washington or Bust”

    I note that “New England or Bust” has not attracted the same attention, focusing less on the Presidency versus concentrating on the Senate.

    Are the shifts possible for the GOP to see an opening in these three states in 2024? What makes them different from Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota?

    • Replies: @indocon
    @216

    Mainly the composition of their white voters outside the big cities of Seattle and Portland, who are much more secular, and couple of other unique factors.

    Illinois is another matter, the state has been democlyposed (a term that I have been using for couple of years). GOP is probably doing much better than 1988 (last time Reps won) outside of Chicago metro, but getting drowned out by the demographic change and emergence of soccer mom crowd, which by the way is the same reason why GOP has not won states like New Jersey and Connecticut since 1988.

    1988 elections is interesting, GHWB barely won Illinois along with a whole bunch of other states (which later became the blue wall) but he lost 10 states including Washington, Oregon, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Mass, RI, West Virginia (!!!!), New York, and Hawaii. The reason for Dukakis winning these states were different, ranging from farm crisis in Iowa, to last stronghold of union influence in West Virginia, to strong base Democratic strength in Mass and New York. Washington and Oregon are interesting as there was no real major economic crisis going on in these states, only reason I could think of is that the soccer mom crowd plus secularization of whites had shown up here before it did in places like Chicago and Philadelphia.

    One unique factor to Washington is that it has no income tax, as such the state legislature is pretty impotent to squeeze money from white suburbanites, although the Democrats are trying their best now that they have a trifecta of power. White suburbanites can safely vote Democratic, this by the way is also similar to Colorado which has Tax Payer Bill of Rites (TABOR) which limits the legislature power power to tax and spend. If by miracle TABOR goes and income tax comes to WA, I would not be surprised if Republicans overnight became relevant.

    Replies: @Jay Fink

  4. @216
    Contd

    "Illinois or Bust" was expanded by our host to "Illinois, Oregon and Washington or Bust"

    I note that "New England or Bust" has not attracted the same attention, focusing less on the Presidency versus concentrating on the Senate.

    Are the shifts possible for the GOP to see an opening in these three states in 2024? What makes them different from Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota?

    Replies: @indocon

    Mainly the composition of their white voters outside the big cities of Seattle and Portland, who are much more secular, and couple of other unique factors.

    Illinois is another matter, the state has been democlyposed (a term that I have been using for couple of years). GOP is probably doing much better than 1988 (last time Reps won) outside of Chicago metro, but getting drowned out by the demographic change and emergence of soccer mom crowd, which by the way is the same reason why GOP has not won states like New Jersey and Connecticut since 1988.

    1988 elections is interesting, GHWB barely won Illinois along with a whole bunch of other states (which later became the blue wall) but he lost 10 states including Washington, Oregon, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Mass, RI, West Virginia (!!!!), New York, and Hawaii. The reason for Dukakis winning these states were different, ranging from farm crisis in Iowa, to last stronghold of union influence in West Virginia, to strong base Democratic strength in Mass and New York. Washington and Oregon are interesting as there was no real major economic crisis going on in these states, only reason I could think of is that the soccer mom crowd plus secularization of whites had shown up here before it did in places like Chicago and Philadelphia.

    One unique factor to Washington is that it has no income tax, as such the state legislature is pretty impotent to squeeze money from white suburbanites, although the Democrats are trying their best now that they have a trifecta of power. White suburbanites can safely vote Democratic, this by the way is also similar to Colorado which has Tax Payer Bill of Rites (TABOR) which limits the legislature power power to tax and spend. If by miracle TABOR goes and income tax comes to WA, I would not be surprised if Republicans overnight became relevant.

    • Replies: @Jay Fink
    @indocon

    I am in conservative central Washington and people here are worried that a state income tax is coming sooner or later. The other state taxes are excessively high here so the last thing they want is an income tax.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  5. @216

    There are fairly mainstream black figures who’ve been quite successful doing this–Candace Owens, Jesse Lee Peterson, Jon Miller–and mainstream white conservatives will start doing the same.
     
    The key here is black.

    Electorally this has some significance, as younger blacks (lower turnout, higher incarceration) are less hostile to the GOP than their elders.

    Raising the GOP take from ~10% to ~15% is significant enough to lock up the Midwest. ~20% is enough to make Illinois or Bust work.

    But that only black voices are doing this is significant. Hispanic and Asian voices have yet to join. Possibly because "revealed preference white guilt" that benefits "based blacks" doesn't work for them.

    Otoh, there could be "revealed preference neoliberalism" at work here, silently condemning whites for not working hard enough.

    But the GOP establishment really doesn't want to accomodate any more working class voters, IMO. Increased black votes for the GOP will inevitably draw the party leftwards on fiscal policy, a cause to which I have some sympathy.

    The GOP badly wants to be the party of the upper middle class striver, and pretended for decades that Hispanics would become this. The Asians who actually represent this strand of thinking now appear more leftist than ever.

    Replies: @indocon, @Audacious Epigone, @nymom

    “Raising the GOP take from ~10% to ~15% is significant enough to lock up the Midwest. ~20% is enough to make Illinois or Bust work.”

    Will not happen brother, never.

  6. I don’t think I could disagree more with everything in the comment. Trump hardly seems much like an SJW antithesis. He loves gays, loves government spending, does nothing about the wall, etc. The left still vilifies him, but not because he’s doing much different than they would do in his place, only because he has the power and they don’t. He’s General Hospital not General Franco.

    The real question is, “What do the Republicans do after Trump?” There is no going back to the old GOPe, and there is nothing holding the party together except the personal magnetism of the Orange Man. It would be nice if someone were to run with the explicit aim if actually fulfilling Trump’s 2016 campaign promises. The message has already proved to be a winner, so you would think somebody would have enough brains to pick it up and run with it.

    • Agree: Tusk
    • Replies: @WorkingClass
    @Intelligent Dasein

    “What do the Republicans do after Trump?”

    Oh yeah. Republicans! I had completely forgotten about them.

    , @Mr. Rational
    @Intelligent Dasein


    The real question is, “What do the Republicans do after Trump?”
     
    Tucker Carlson, with Don Jr. as veep.

    Replies: @Arthur Pierce, @follyofwar, @Achmed E. Newman

    , @Thea
    @Intelligent Dasein

    It’s not really Trump they hate, it’s his voters.

    The dems will have a turnout problem that will counteract demographic changes. Who will get excited about voting for Buttegiege or Biden the other assorted oddballs?

    , @Audacious Epigone
    @Intelligent Dasein

    Alexander's point is that Trump is an antithesis strawman--a Goldstein who talks tough but has no actual power.

  7. “Trump is all set to be the biggest gift to the social justice movement in history. They thrive on claims of persecution, claims that they’re the ones fighting a stupid hateful regressive culture that controls everything. And people think that bringing their straw man to life and putting him in the Oval Office is going to help?”

    It seems to me this conclusion was drawn before the actual reasons for it were conceived. The first reason is purely subjective. The second reason is purely rhetorical and the third one pure conjecture. So is there any shred of hard evidence, like a specific event or action, that validates the conclusion? Because the one thing Trump has been able to do with relative success is reveal how unhinged the SJW left really is, and contrary to the above contention, the MSM has unwittingly assisted Trump with that.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    @MikeatMikedotMike

    I think the evidence is perceived as being how far socially left Democrats (white Democrats, anyway) have swung since Trump's election.

  8. Winter is coming Y’all. Think Maslow. When the SJW’s are knocked down to physiological needs they will be too busy surviving to make society conform to their anger dreams. Hunger clarifies the mind.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @follyofwar
    @WorkingClass

    Hey, WC, winter is already here and we've had no snow in Southwestern PA. The weather has generally been between 45-55 degrees, so no one is freezing to death. Snow storms might still come, but, if you count from Dec. 1, we're already 6 weeks in and Nada.

    Regarding Mr. Trump, who makes war and threats of war by Tweet, without so much as consulting Congress first, I think the GOP head honchos in the Senate will have finally had their fill of him if his poll numbers take a serious nose dive. They are not about to stand by a seemingly deranged president, and allow him to take down the republican Senate with him. One wonders, with the Senate trial still pending, if the "night of the long knives" may soon be at hand. Even McConnell will shrink from his support, as he is also up for re-election this year, and doesn't want to switch places with Schumer, and become the minority leader again.

    Replies: @Curmudgeon

  9. @Intelligent Dasein
    I don't think I could disagree more with everything in the comment. Trump hardly seems much like an SJW antithesis. He loves gays, loves government spending, does nothing about the wall, etc. The left still vilifies him, but not because he's doing much different than they would do in his place, only because he has the power and they don't. He's General Hospital not General Franco.

    The real question is, "What do the Republicans do after Trump?" There is no going back to the old GOPe, and there is nothing holding the party together except the personal magnetism of the Orange Man. It would be nice if someone were to run with the explicit aim if actually fulfilling Trump's 2016 campaign promises. The message has already proved to be a winner, so you would think somebody would have enough brains to pick it up and run with it.

    Replies: @WorkingClass, @Mr. Rational, @Thea, @Audacious Epigone

    “What do the Republicans do after Trump?”

    Oh yeah. Republicans! I had completely forgotten about them.

  10. Again, another pointlessly defeatist premise. “The only plausible option forward presents risks, better not to try.”

    Trump was the only even conceivably positive option (outside of totally absurd fantasies, of which political commentators have plenty I guess), anyone who pretends otherwise is a liar or a delusional who thinks waiting for a deus ex machina to save us is a better strategy.

    And just apply this argument to ANY other president, did Obama being a mediocrity even according to what his base wanted totally discredit the “nation of immigrants” or “the arc of history” nonsense, or even just the new strain of rabid social justice? Of course the implacable defeatist will proclaim “but the media wasn’t against him!” Well the media, justice system, etc. were ALWAYS going to be against anyone, so again options narrow to “don’t try, just keep impotently complaining.”

    And of course the tried and true “he doesn’t seem to know what he’s doing,” sure, we all expected more, and he could do better for his supporters, but which president ever looked like he knew what he was doing to his armchair critics? This was always going to be the case, and as much as it pains the midwit political theorist to ever admit any of his flaws, none of you have a plausible alternative that couldn’t be impeded by the status quo ten times more effectively than they’ve impeded the very reasonable goal of securing their own damn southern border. So making it so that an invading army can’t just walk into your country is beyond the pale, but if it weren’t for Drumph then an ethnic nationalist government or partition of the United States into mini countries was right around the corner? Yeah right.

    • Agree: MikeatMikedotMike
    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    @Athletic and Whitesplosive

    While Scott Alexander is several cuts above the run-of-the-mill leftist, he is a leftist and so his advice to his erstwhile ideological opponents shouldn't be viewed uncritically.

  11. And people think that bringing their straw man to life and putting him in the Oval Office is going to help?

    Sorry, that commenter doesn’t have a gold star, I really can’t take him seriously 🙂

    But yes. Exposing the left’s insanity is very useful and highly entertaining. We just need someone to take what Trump started (and promised) and actually make it happen. Who will that person be?

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    @Bragadocious

    It's entertaining until you get thrown into a reeducation camp.

  12. @Intelligent Dasein
    I don't think I could disagree more with everything in the comment. Trump hardly seems much like an SJW antithesis. He loves gays, loves government spending, does nothing about the wall, etc. The left still vilifies him, but not because he's doing much different than they would do in his place, only because he has the power and they don't. He's General Hospital not General Franco.

    The real question is, "What do the Republicans do after Trump?" There is no going back to the old GOPe, and there is nothing holding the party together except the personal magnetism of the Orange Man. It would be nice if someone were to run with the explicit aim if actually fulfilling Trump's 2016 campaign promises. The message has already proved to be a winner, so you would think somebody would have enough brains to pick it up and run with it.

    Replies: @WorkingClass, @Mr. Rational, @Thea, @Audacious Epigone

    The real question is, “What do the Republicans do after Trump?”

    Tucker Carlson, with Don Jr. as veep.

    • Replies: @Arthur Pierce
    @Mr. Rational

    Don Jr. makes his old man look like a veritable Isaac Newton.

    Replies: @Mr. Rational

    , @follyofwar
    @Mr. Rational

    Tucker - YES
    Don, Jr - HELL NO

    How about a fusion ticket of Carlson/Gabbard? Now that's a ticket which would get votes from both sides of the divide.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    , @Achmed E. Newman
    @Mr. Rational

    Tucker would be fantastic, Mr. Rational. Would you accept Ann Coulter as VP?

    Replies: @Mr. Rational

  13. Trump has delivered on none of his promises, except the ones to Israel. He has energized the anti-White establishment and their enforcers (the so-called “social justice warriors”, despite their hatred of any real justice and their devotion to destroying any real society), but what has he done to help Whites, or even American citizens generally (apart from the (((dual))) citizens, of course)? To date he has bizarrely tied the implicitly White identitarian 2016 Trumpism to the extreme Neocon 2017-2020 Trumpism.

    “What will the Republican Party do”
    End, hopefully

  14. @Mr. Rational
    @Intelligent Dasein


    The real question is, “What do the Republicans do after Trump?”
     
    Tucker Carlson, with Don Jr. as veep.

    Replies: @Arthur Pierce, @follyofwar, @Achmed E. Newman

    Don Jr. makes his old man look like a veritable Isaac Newton.

    • Replies: @Mr. Rational
    @Arthur Pierce

    OK, boomer.

  15. so does Trump–and it works.

    How does it work? It may solidify his following among his “deplorable” base, who also see themselves as victims, but it tends to alienate Trump from normal hardworking white conservatives. So far Trump has been an unprecedented failure, unless you were one of those people who just wanted Trump to break stuff. The deficit is sky high, woke culture is stronger than ever, demographic shift keeps moving steadily away from the founding population, and America’s ability to influence world affairs is at an all time low. Even Trump’s attempt to play tough guy by whacking an Iranian scumbag seems to be blowing up in his face because Trump doesn’t think things through. I think Scott was on to something.

    • Replies: @Difference Maker
    @Peter Akuleyev

    You are pretty dense if you never noticed the Left gearing up for a permanent totalitarian dark age. You needed to wait until literally today for freakin' Scott Alexander to startup some spark in your brain cells.

    It will be the end of science, beauty, the middle class. It is for this that I vote for Trump

    , @Audacious Epigone
    @Peter Akuleyev

    It works for Trump.

  16. So Alexander is basically saying we shouldn’t fight back against SJWs because that will just get them riled up. I guess he thinks lay down and take it is a better strategy.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
  17. @WorkingClass
    Winter is coming Y'all. Think Maslow. When the SJW's are knocked down to physiological needs they will be too busy surviving to make society conform to their anger dreams. Hunger clarifies the mind.

    Replies: @follyofwar

    Hey, WC, winter is already here and we’ve had no snow in Southwestern PA. The weather has generally been between 45-55 degrees, so no one is freezing to death. Snow storms might still come, but, if you count from Dec. 1, we’re already 6 weeks in and Nada.

    Regarding Mr. Trump, who makes war and threats of war by Tweet, without so much as consulting Congress first, I think the GOP head honchos in the Senate will have finally had their fill of him if his poll numbers take a serious nose dive. They are not about to stand by a seemingly deranged president, and allow him to take down the republican Senate with him. One wonders, with the Senate trial still pending, if the “night of the long knives” may soon be at hand. Even McConnell will shrink from his support, as he is also up for re-election this year, and doesn’t want to switch places with Schumer, and become the minority leader again.

    • Replies: @Curmudgeon
    @follyofwar


    Regarding Mr. Trump, who makes war and threats of war by Tweet, without so much as consulting Congress first,...
     
    Are you saying that Clinton, Bush, and Obama didn't? Bolton and Killary threatened everyone they could think of, so did Kerry.
    Until the stupidity of blowing up an Iranian government official invited to Baghdad, he hadn't started any wars. Continued, yes, but not started.
    There's plenty not to like about Trump, but let's not pretend he's done things his predecessors haven't.
  18. “But that only black voices are doing this is significant. Hispanic and Asian voices have yet to join. Possibly because “revealed preference white guilt” that benefits “based blacks” doesn’t work for them.”

    Then you really haven’t been paying attention. The entire immigration debate is predicated on social justice, the entirety of the hispanic gambit is predicated on how the the US stole the southwest from latinos —

    As for the general comment that the current ethos is something new since 2012 or so. This would not be the case for anyone involved in education at any level. These battles began there and were initially discussion points and when the US failure in Iraq was manifest, the liberals came out in force in nearly every areas to attack traditionalists —

    and having spent so much energy advocating for war, when that turned south traditionalists were uncovered as hypocrites, disengenuous, in cahoots with liars —- and the game was on as the catholics were hit first and the hardest, then sexual conduct as favored sons and daughters of conservatives supposedly

    “came out” and the same had no response but loving embrace and equivocation — uggggg And so began a slow but definitive slide by the republican party into strategizing getting latino votes, more advocacy for outsourcing . . .

    and the corporate world feigning capitalism was demonstrated to be a mercantilists dream . . . the wheels came off as conservative leaders along with their supposed rivals jumped on the bailout wagon and healthcare advocacy became relevant.

  19. “Regarding Mr. Trump, who makes war and threats of war by Tweet, without so much as consulting Congress first, I think the GOP head honchos in the Senate will have finally had their fill of him if his poll numbers take a serious nose dive.”

    Interventionists have the executive right where they want him.

  20. @Mr. Rational
    @Intelligent Dasein


    The real question is, “What do the Republicans do after Trump?”
     
    Tucker Carlson, with Don Jr. as veep.

    Replies: @Arthur Pierce, @follyofwar, @Achmed E. Newman

    Tucker – YES
    Don, Jr – HELL NO

    How about a fusion ticket of Carlson/Gabbard? Now that’s a ticket which would get votes from both sides of the divide.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @follyofwar

    No, Tulsi is a Socialist and is quite up for taking the guns away. It'd work if Tucker and his family were bulletproof. He could set her up to deal with foreign policy only.

    Replies: @MBlanc46

  21. @Mr. Rational
    @Intelligent Dasein


    The real question is, “What do the Republicans do after Trump?”
     
    Tucker Carlson, with Don Jr. as veep.

    Replies: @Arthur Pierce, @follyofwar, @Achmed E. Newman

    Tucker would be fantastic, Mr. Rational. Would you accept Ann Coulter as VP?

    • Replies: @Mr. Rational
    @Achmed E. Newman

    No, I would not.  Coulter is a strong asset but has three disqualifiers.  Everyone ought to know them and I'm not going to list them.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  22. @follyofwar
    @Mr. Rational

    Tucker - YES
    Don, Jr - HELL NO

    How about a fusion ticket of Carlson/Gabbard? Now that's a ticket which would get votes from both sides of the divide.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    No, Tulsi is a Socialist and is quite up for taking the guns away. It’d work if Tucker and his family were bulletproof. He could set her up to deal with foreign policy only.

    • Replies: @MBlanc46
    @Achmed E. Newman

    I find the fascination of many on the Right with that dreadful woman to be simply unfathomable.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  23. @Intelligent Dasein
    I don't think I could disagree more with everything in the comment. Trump hardly seems much like an SJW antithesis. He loves gays, loves government spending, does nothing about the wall, etc. The left still vilifies him, but not because he's doing much different than they would do in his place, only because he has the power and they don't. He's General Hospital not General Franco.

    The real question is, "What do the Republicans do after Trump?" There is no going back to the old GOPe, and there is nothing holding the party together except the personal magnetism of the Orange Man. It would be nice if someone were to run with the explicit aim if actually fulfilling Trump's 2016 campaign promises. The message has already proved to be a winner, so you would think somebody would have enough brains to pick it up and run with it.

    Replies: @WorkingClass, @Mr. Rational, @Thea, @Audacious Epigone

    It’s not really Trump they hate, it’s his voters.

    The dems will have a turnout problem that will counteract demographic changes. Who will get excited about voting for Buttegiege or Biden the other assorted oddballs?

  24. @Arthur Pierce
    @Mr. Rational

    Don Jr. makes his old man look like a veritable Isaac Newton.

    Replies: @Mr. Rational

    OK, boomer.

  25. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Mr. Rational

    Tucker would be fantastic, Mr. Rational. Would you accept Ann Coulter as VP?

    Replies: @Mr. Rational

    No, I would not.  Coulter is a strong asset but has three disqualifiers.  Everyone ought to know them and I’m not going to list them.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Mr. Rational

    You know the first the VP Coulter would get to work on, Mr. Rational? It's a Constitutional Amendment to repeal Amendment XIX. I guess you read her stuff, but I cannot dismiss someone I agree with over 98% of the time.*

    .

    * It's her little quirk about Affirmative Action and some silliness about "the pot". Maybe there was one more small point over the last 15 years.

  26. @Mr. Rational
    @Achmed E. Newman

    No, I would not.  Coulter is a strong asset but has three disqualifiers.  Everyone ought to know them and I'm not going to list them.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    You know the first the VP Coulter would get to work on, Mr. Rational? It’s a Constitutional Amendment to repeal Amendment XIX. I guess you read her stuff, but I cannot dismiss someone I agree with over 98% of the time.*

    .

    * It’s her little quirk about Affirmative Action and some silliness about “the pot”. Maybe there was one more small point over the last 15 years.

  27. At some point very soon, those on the right will have to start responding to accusations of racism, etc not with impotent denials or lame accusations about how it’s really the Democrats who are racist against non-whites, but by firing back that the left hates white people.

    There are fairly mainstream black figures who’ve been quite successful doing this–Candace Owens, Jesse Lee Peterson, Jon Miller–and mainstream white conservatives will start doing the same.

    EXPLICIT WHITEY TRAIN rolling around the bend.

    EXPLICIT WHITEY TRAIN rolling around the bend.

    Well it took the Republican Party and it ran over it dead.

    The soon-to-be-dodo Republican Party will not explicitly advance the interests of the European Christian ancestral core of the USA.

    The dead-political-party-walking Republican Party will not advance the interests of the historic American nation.

    The rotting and stinking carcass of the Republican Party will not advance the interests of the White Core of the USA.

    Whites must allow the Republican Party to be crushed in November by refusing to support or vote for the treasonous cowards in the Republican Party.

    Martin Scorsese filmed The Last Waltz movie sometime around 1978. The USA had a population of 220 million in 1978. The USA now has a population of 330 million and the majority of the births are to non-Whites and Whites are now a minority in public schools.

    The Republican Party is a corrupt pack of bought and paid for swindlers — led by baby boomer Trump — and the Republican Party is controlled by Jew billionaires and other money-grubbers who push mass legal immigration and mass illegal immigration and multicultural mayhem.

    White Americans born after 1965 have to turn their back on the nation wrecking politician whores in the Republican Party and give their allegiance and vote to the new political party called White Core America.

    White Core America will explicitly advance the interests of the European Christian ancestral core of the USA.

    White Core America will defend and protect the White Core of the USA.

    It’s OKAY to be WHITE.

    It’s OKAY to be GERMAN AMERICAN.

    It’s OKAY to be a WHITE CORE AMERICAN.

    Mystery Train — The Last Waltz:

  28. @follyofwar
    @WorkingClass

    Hey, WC, winter is already here and we've had no snow in Southwestern PA. The weather has generally been between 45-55 degrees, so no one is freezing to death. Snow storms might still come, but, if you count from Dec. 1, we're already 6 weeks in and Nada.

    Regarding Mr. Trump, who makes war and threats of war by Tweet, without so much as consulting Congress first, I think the GOP head honchos in the Senate will have finally had their fill of him if his poll numbers take a serious nose dive. They are not about to stand by a seemingly deranged president, and allow him to take down the republican Senate with him. One wonders, with the Senate trial still pending, if the "night of the long knives" may soon be at hand. Even McConnell will shrink from his support, as he is also up for re-election this year, and doesn't want to switch places with Schumer, and become the minority leader again.

    Replies: @Curmudgeon

    Regarding Mr. Trump, who makes war and threats of war by Tweet, without so much as consulting Congress first,…

    Are you saying that Clinton, Bush, and Obama didn’t? Bolton and Killary threatened everyone they could think of, so did Kerry.
    Until the stupidity of blowing up an Iranian government official invited to Baghdad, he hadn’t started any wars. Continued, yes, but not started.
    There’s plenty not to like about Trump, but let’s not pretend he’s done things his predecessors haven’t.

  29. “mainstream white conservatives will start doing the same.”

    i wouldn’t bet on it. it’s possible. but thanks to their (donors), (handlers), and putative (allies), mainstream conservatives are highly conditioned to never do that. it’s ingrained in them since birth that they’re NEVER to take their own side in a fight. they are so conditioned this way, that they can only get into an us versus them, group versus group battle mode if it’s to defend their (allies) or their precious africans or their saintly homosexuals. in fact, they are SO conditioned by their (allies), that they automatically attack any conservative who does start to defend europeans as europeans.

    what was it the guy said? american politics today is Democrats accusing Republicans of being racist, with Republicans occasionally interrupting and accusing Democrats of hating Jews.

    within the Republican party, the resistance to identity politics for europeans is VERY STRONG. instituted from the top down, and run by you know who, as always. it continues during Trump – almost every MAGA grifter operation is explicitly hostile to identity politics for europeans – and will continue after Trump.

  30. ” . . . within the Republican party, the resistance to identity politics for europeans is VERY STRONG. . . .”

    I have been a republican voter since I could vote and a conservative longer and your comment ignores the history of the party.

    Stop panicking, we are not at war yet. And even if we were given media twist in the wind on the issues, I doubt it would change the public’s view. And the democrats are going to be split on the issue, as they are already demonstrating.

  31. I’m not fussed about being called racist or sexist, as I’m sure my comment history indicates, but I find it’s more effective a conversation-stopper to call the game out for what it is: something along the lines of “fuck off, you hypocritical grifter, you only claim to care about these people because they vote for your team, you actually just want to kill me and loot my corpse, and the second one of them goes off the reservation, you want to kill them and loot their corpse too.”

    I reject the frame that race actually has anything to do with their insatiable envy and lust for power; it’s just a convenient NPC excuse. And this has the benefit of being universally applicable to Marxists whether they are currently babbling about blacks, women, gays, trannies or nutobs who identify as two-headed dragons.

    • Agree: Mr. Rational
  32. @indocon
    @216

    Mainly the composition of their white voters outside the big cities of Seattle and Portland, who are much more secular, and couple of other unique factors.

    Illinois is another matter, the state has been democlyposed (a term that I have been using for couple of years). GOP is probably doing much better than 1988 (last time Reps won) outside of Chicago metro, but getting drowned out by the demographic change and emergence of soccer mom crowd, which by the way is the same reason why GOP has not won states like New Jersey and Connecticut since 1988.

    1988 elections is interesting, GHWB barely won Illinois along with a whole bunch of other states (which later became the blue wall) but he lost 10 states including Washington, Oregon, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Mass, RI, West Virginia (!!!!), New York, and Hawaii. The reason for Dukakis winning these states were different, ranging from farm crisis in Iowa, to last stronghold of union influence in West Virginia, to strong base Democratic strength in Mass and New York. Washington and Oregon are interesting as there was no real major economic crisis going on in these states, only reason I could think of is that the soccer mom crowd plus secularization of whites had shown up here before it did in places like Chicago and Philadelphia.

    One unique factor to Washington is that it has no income tax, as such the state legislature is pretty impotent to squeeze money from white suburbanites, although the Democrats are trying their best now that they have a trifecta of power. White suburbanites can safely vote Democratic, this by the way is also similar to Colorado which has Tax Payer Bill of Rites (TABOR) which limits the legislature power power to tax and spend. If by miracle TABOR goes and income tax comes to WA, I would not be surprised if Republicans overnight became relevant.

    Replies: @Jay Fink

    I am in conservative central Washington and people here are worried that a state income tax is coming sooner or later. The other state taxes are excessively high here so the last thing they want is an income tax.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Jay Fink

    I hope Washingtonians vote against it no matter what BS the proponents say about lowering other taxes. That ratcheting business is something I've seen around my parts too, and I'm onto it. Of course, you have millions of loonie Seattlelites to overcome.

  33. @Jay Fink
    @indocon

    I am in conservative central Washington and people here are worried that a state income tax is coming sooner or later. The other state taxes are excessively high here so the last thing they want is an income tax.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    I hope Washingtonians vote against it no matter what BS the proponents say about lowering other taxes. That ratcheting business is something I’ve seen around my parts too, and I’m onto it. Of course, you have millions of loonie Seattlelites to overcome.

  34. @Peter Akuleyev
    so does Trump–and it works.

    How does it work? It may solidify his following among his "deplorable" base, who also see themselves as victims, but it tends to alienate Trump from normal hardworking white conservatives. So far Trump has been an unprecedented failure, unless you were one of those people who just wanted Trump to break stuff. The deficit is sky high, woke culture is stronger than ever, demographic shift keeps moving steadily away from the founding population, and America's ability to influence world affairs is at an all time low. Even Trump's attempt to play tough guy by whacking an Iranian scumbag seems to be blowing up in his face because Trump doesn't think things through. I think Scott was on to something.

    Replies: @Difference Maker, @Audacious Epigone

    You are pretty dense if you never noticed the Left gearing up for a permanent totalitarian dark age. You needed to wait until literally today for freakin’ Scott Alexander to startup some spark in your brain cells.

    It will be the end of science, beauty, the middle class. It is for this that I vote for Trump

  35. @216

    There are fairly mainstream black figures who’ve been quite successful doing this–Candace Owens, Jesse Lee Peterson, Jon Miller–and mainstream white conservatives will start doing the same.
     
    The key here is black.

    Electorally this has some significance, as younger blacks (lower turnout, higher incarceration) are less hostile to the GOP than their elders.

    Raising the GOP take from ~10% to ~15% is significant enough to lock up the Midwest. ~20% is enough to make Illinois or Bust work.

    But that only black voices are doing this is significant. Hispanic and Asian voices have yet to join. Possibly because "revealed preference white guilt" that benefits "based blacks" doesn't work for them.

    Otoh, there could be "revealed preference neoliberalism" at work here, silently condemning whites for not working hard enough.

    But the GOP establishment really doesn't want to accomodate any more working class voters, IMO. Increased black votes for the GOP will inevitably draw the party leftwards on fiscal policy, a cause to which I have some sympathy.

    The GOP badly wants to be the party of the upper middle class striver, and pretended for decades that Hispanics would become this. The Asians who actually represent this strand of thinking now appear more leftist than ever.

    Replies: @indocon, @Audacious Epigone, @nymom

    In case it’s not clear, I’m referring to blacks accusing the Democrat party of being racist against whites, not racist against blacks (though of course they do this as well).

  36. @Achmed E. Newman
    @follyofwar

    No, Tulsi is a Socialist and is quite up for taking the guns away. It'd work if Tucker and his family were bulletproof. He could set her up to deal with foreign policy only.

    Replies: @MBlanc46

    I find the fascination of many on the Right with that dreadful woman to be simply unfathomable.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @MBlanc46

    From the FFT facebook group (that's Fapping For Tulsi), I hear tell it's because she's got by far the only decent looking ass of the presidential candidates. Well, from a man's perspective that is... but then, to confuse the situation more, there's The Honorable Mayor of South Bendova, Indiana.

    Replies: @Audacious Epigone

  37. Yo Audie, all the homies together; guess who is behind the camera…

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    @Truth

    You'll have to tell me.

    via GIPHY

    Replies: @Truth

  38. @MBlanc46
    @Achmed E. Newman

    I find the fascination of many on the Right with that dreadful woman to be simply unfathomable.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    From the FFT facebook group (that’s Fapping For Tulsi), I hear tell it’s because she’s got by far the only decent looking ass of the presidential candidates. Well, from a man’s perspective that is… but then, to confuse the situation more, there’s The Honorable Mayor of South Bendova, Indiana.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    @Achmed E. Newman

    In a world where hardcore porn is always a click away, it's not her status as a moderately attractive middle aged woman that makes her interesting--it's that she is against invading the world and she's the most vociferous supporter of legally protecting political speech on social media among the Democrat field. It's also that she's taken out Kamala and spit in Hillary Clinton's face.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  39. @216

    There are fairly mainstream black figures who’ve been quite successful doing this–Candace Owens, Jesse Lee Peterson, Jon Miller–and mainstream white conservatives will start doing the same.
     
    The key here is black.

    Electorally this has some significance, as younger blacks (lower turnout, higher incarceration) are less hostile to the GOP than their elders.

    Raising the GOP take from ~10% to ~15% is significant enough to lock up the Midwest. ~20% is enough to make Illinois or Bust work.

    But that only black voices are doing this is significant. Hispanic and Asian voices have yet to join. Possibly because "revealed preference white guilt" that benefits "based blacks" doesn't work for them.

    Otoh, there could be "revealed preference neoliberalism" at work here, silently condemning whites for not working hard enough.

    But the GOP establishment really doesn't want to accomodate any more working class voters, IMO. Increased black votes for the GOP will inevitably draw the party leftwards on fiscal policy, a cause to which I have some sympathy.

    The GOP badly wants to be the party of the upper middle class striver, and pretended for decades that Hispanics would become this. The Asians who actually represent this strand of thinking now appear more leftist than ever.

    Replies: @indocon, @Audacious Epigone, @nymom

    Actually I think it may be the opposite.

    Younger black population is much more hostile to the GOP (and the white population) in general than the older black generation ever was…

    The older black population is starting to realize if we continue along our current trajectory listening to the younger generation, both black and white, the US could become another Haiti or even South Africa…I’m not sure which will ultimately prove to be worse.

    Remember when this started in the 60s, no state in Africa had been on its own for any length of time and Haiti was seen as an aberration… So there was nothing to measure majority black rule by except history; which, clearly was written by historians wearing rose-colored glasses, to say the least.

    A quick glance at every major city in the US controlled by a significant black population even now shows the dysfunction pretty clearly as every one of them from NY to LA is a complete and utter mess.

    So I don’t think your analysis correct. Worse it could be more serious than we realize as the older black population ages out of the picture and the younger one takes over, things could get a whole lot worse….ie., ANC under Nelson Madela versus EFF under Julius Malema…

  40. @Intelligent Dasein
    I don't think I could disagree more with everything in the comment. Trump hardly seems much like an SJW antithesis. He loves gays, loves government spending, does nothing about the wall, etc. The left still vilifies him, but not because he's doing much different than they would do in his place, only because he has the power and they don't. He's General Hospital not General Franco.

    The real question is, "What do the Republicans do after Trump?" There is no going back to the old GOPe, and there is nothing holding the party together except the personal magnetism of the Orange Man. It would be nice if someone were to run with the explicit aim if actually fulfilling Trump's 2016 campaign promises. The message has already proved to be a winner, so you would think somebody would have enough brains to pick it up and run with it.

    Replies: @WorkingClass, @Mr. Rational, @Thea, @Audacious Epigone

    Alexander’s point is that Trump is an antithesis strawman–a Goldstein who talks tough but has no actual power.

  41. @MikeatMikedotMike
    "Trump is all set to be the biggest gift to the social justice movement in history. They thrive on claims of persecution, claims that they’re the ones fighting a stupid hateful regressive culture that controls everything. And people think that bringing their straw man to life and putting him in the Oval Office is going to help?"

    It seems to me this conclusion was drawn before the actual reasons for it were conceived. The first reason is purely subjective. The second reason is purely rhetorical and the third one pure conjecture. So is there any shred of hard evidence, like a specific event or action, that validates the conclusion? Because the one thing Trump has been able to do with relative success is reveal how unhinged the SJW left really is, and contrary to the above contention, the MSM has unwittingly assisted Trump with that.

    Replies: @Audacious Epigone

    I think the evidence is perceived as being how far socially left Democrats (white Democrats, anyway) have swung since Trump’s election.

  42. @Athletic and Whitesplosive
    Again, another pointlessly defeatist premise. "The only plausible option forward presents risks, better not to try."

    Trump was the only even conceivably positive option (outside of totally absurd fantasies, of which political commentators have plenty I guess), anyone who pretends otherwise is a liar or a delusional who thinks waiting for a deus ex machina to save us is a better strategy.

    And just apply this argument to ANY other president, did Obama being a mediocrity even according to what his base wanted totally discredit the "nation of immigrants" or "the arc of history" nonsense, or even just the new strain of rabid social justice? Of course the implacable defeatist will proclaim "but the media wasn't against him!" Well the media, justice system, etc. were ALWAYS going to be against anyone, so again options narrow to "don't try, just keep impotently complaining."

    And of course the tried and true "he doesn't seem to know what he's doing," sure, we all expected more, and he could do better for his supporters, but which president ever looked like he knew what he was doing to his armchair critics? This was always going to be the case, and as much as it pains the midwit political theorist to ever admit any of his flaws, none of you have a plausible alternative that couldn't be impeded by the status quo ten times more effectively than they've impeded the very reasonable goal of securing their own damn southern border. So making it so that an invading army can't just walk into your country is beyond the pale, but if it weren't for Drumph then an ethnic nationalist government or partition of the United States into mini countries was right around the corner? Yeah right.

    Replies: @Audacious Epigone

    While Scott Alexander is several cuts above the run-of-the-mill leftist, he is a leftist and so his advice to his erstwhile ideological opponents shouldn’t be viewed uncritically.

    • Agree: iffen
  43. @Bragadocious

    And people think that bringing their straw man to life and putting him in the Oval Office is going to help?

     

    Sorry, that commenter doesn't have a gold star, I really can't take him seriously :)

    But yes. Exposing the left's insanity is very useful and highly entertaining. We just need someone to take what Trump started (and promised) and actually make it happen. Who will that person be?

    Replies: @Audacious Epigone

    It’s entertaining until you get thrown into a reeducation camp.

  44. @Peter Akuleyev
    so does Trump–and it works.

    How does it work? It may solidify his following among his "deplorable" base, who also see themselves as victims, but it tends to alienate Trump from normal hardworking white conservatives. So far Trump has been an unprecedented failure, unless you were one of those people who just wanted Trump to break stuff. The deficit is sky high, woke culture is stronger than ever, demographic shift keeps moving steadily away from the founding population, and America's ability to influence world affairs is at an all time low. Even Trump's attempt to play tough guy by whacking an Iranian scumbag seems to be blowing up in his face because Trump doesn't think things through. I think Scott was on to something.

    Replies: @Difference Maker, @Audacious Epigone

    It works for Trump.

  45. @Truth
    Yo Audie, all the homies together; guess who is behind the camera...

    https://www.henrymakow.com/upload_images/traitors-scoundrels.jpg

    Replies: @Audacious Epigone

    You’ll have to tell me.

    via GIPHY

    • Replies: @Truth
    @Audacious Epigone

    Welph, there's only one spouse missing from the rogues gallery.

    Replies: @iffen, @Audacious Epigone

  46. @Achmed E. Newman
    @MBlanc46

    From the FFT facebook group (that's Fapping For Tulsi), I hear tell it's because she's got by far the only decent looking ass of the presidential candidates. Well, from a man's perspective that is... but then, to confuse the situation more, there's The Honorable Mayor of South Bendova, Indiana.

    Replies: @Audacious Epigone

    In a world where hardcore porn is always a click away, it’s not her status as a moderately attractive middle aged woman that makes her interesting–it’s that she is against invading the world and she’s the most vociferous supporter of legally protecting political speech on social media among the Democrat field. It’s also that she’s taken out Kamala and spit in Hillary Clinton’s face.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Audacious Epigone

    OK, my FFT bit was in jest, of course, based on some meme I recently saw. However, as much as I appreciate those 2 admirable policy positions and what I wish was a more literal thing with the Hildabeast, I checked out her web site a few weeks back and was disgusted by most of her positions. Hey, if she helps thin out the field of the worst of them, more power to her. Tulsi would never get my vote, unless she changed her position so drastically that the Democrats would spit on HER.

    Replies: @Audacious Epigone

  47. @Audacious Epigone
    @Truth

    You'll have to tell me.

    via GIPHY

    Replies: @Truth

    Welph, there’s only one spouse missing from the rogues gallery.

    • Replies: @iffen
    @Truth

    You have discovered the truth, Truth. We just play act as enemies. When you people are not around, we are BFFs and we spend all our time plotting how to keep our feet on your necks.

    , @Audacious Epigone
    @Truth

    Where and in what context? Is Bill Clinton still a member of one of Trump's private golf club?

  48. @Audacious Epigone
    @Achmed E. Newman

    In a world where hardcore porn is always a click away, it's not her status as a moderately attractive middle aged woman that makes her interesting--it's that she is against invading the world and she's the most vociferous supporter of legally protecting political speech on social media among the Democrat field. It's also that she's taken out Kamala and spit in Hillary Clinton's face.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    OK, my FFT bit was in jest, of course, based on some meme I recently saw. However, as much as I appreciate those 2 admirable policy positions and what I wish was a more literal thing with the Hildabeast, I checked out her web site a few weeks back and was disgusted by most of her positions. Hey, if she helps thin out the field of the worst of them, more power to her. Tulsi would never get my vote, unless she changed her position so drastically that the Democrats would spit on HER.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Hawaiians do know how to roast a pig!

  49. @Truth
    @Audacious Epigone

    Welph, there's only one spouse missing from the rogues gallery.

    Replies: @iffen, @Audacious Epigone

    You have discovered the truth, Truth. We just play act as enemies. When you people are not around, we are BFFs and we spend all our time plotting how to keep our feet on your necks.

  50. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Audacious Epigone

    OK, my FFT bit was in jest, of course, based on some meme I recently saw. However, as much as I appreciate those 2 admirable policy positions and what I wish was a more literal thing with the Hildabeast, I checked out her web site a few weeks back and was disgusted by most of her positions. Hey, if she helps thin out the field of the worst of them, more power to her. Tulsi would never get my vote, unless she changed her position so drastically that the Democrats would spit on HER.

    Replies: @Audacious Epigone

    Hawaiians do know how to roast a pig!

  51. @Truth
    @Audacious Epigone

    Welph, there's only one spouse missing from the rogues gallery.

    Replies: @iffen, @Audacious Epigone

    Where and in what context? Is Bill Clinton still a member of one of Trump’s private golf club?

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