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The following graphs compare the last YouGov poll taken on the eve of the 2016 election with the most recent YouGov poll in mid-January of 2020 by race. One major distinction, of course, is that the 2020 Democrat candidate has yet to be determined. We are thus making a Clintons-to-Generics comparison.

From a Trumpian perspective, things appear woeful among whites:

Better among blacks:

Happier among Hispanics:

And astonishing among others:

Trump’s point gain (loss) in 2020 relative to 2016, by race:

Seeing is believing, sure. These are merely polling prognostications. But the potential wrenches they throw in both conventional and contrarian narratives is fascinating.

 
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  1. gman says:

    The white shift away from Trump is not surprising

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/13/20960203/black-voices-for-trump-african-american-polling

    https://nationalpolicy.institute/2019/12/15/whexit-and-the-new-class/

    The most anti-trump people are certainly whites (i.e. the types of people who have “hate has no home here” signs)

    • Replies: @indocon
  2. SFG says:

    Eh, I get it.

    Whites thought they were getting an alt-Right champion (at least the ones who turned on him).

    Latinos thought they were all going to get deported (the rhetoric out of the left had him deporting citizens), but after it was just illegals they were like, ‘Whatever’.

  3. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again. The old GOPe strategy of appealing to minority voters was the correct one, they just never fielded a candidate with the huevos to pull it off until Trump came along. Trump is following the anti-Sailer strategy and he’s making it pay off, bigly.

    The reason the Sailer strategy does not work is because it is not really a strategy, it’s just a description of conditions. “If three percent more whites voted Republican, the GOP would win in a landslide”—Yeah, and if a frog had wings he wouldn’t bump his ass when he hopped. The question is, What are you going to do about it?

    You won’t ever get that additional white support because whites do not vote as a block, and a solid plurality of them are never going to vote for a Republican. Trump picks up votes the only places he can get them, and right now a lot of that is among minorities.

  4. indocon says:
    @gman

    If the changes above do manifest on election day 2020, Trump will lose handily to the Democrat, similar to 2012 Romney loss. Gone will be the Big 10 states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Iowa, and most likely Arizona, no new states will come over. The huge “Other” move will make squat of a difference in place like CA where Trump may loose by 25 points instead of 35 points. And with this GOP has a real chance of losing the Senate where their candidates in Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Arizona would go down, even with Jeff Sessions coming back in Alabama, Stacy Abrams will be the Senate decider as vice president. Jesus Christ the future looks frightening.

  5. neutral says:

    The most anti-trump people are certainly whites (i.e. the types of people who have “hate has no home here” signs)

    I think that it is the white nationalists that are the most anti Trump. His betrayal on immigration (basically now doing what Jeb Bush would have done), his endless arse licking of Israel and his total failure on the anti white front that accelerated under his regime – these are all damning.

  6. @neutral

    White nationalists are about 0.1% of the vote.

    What’s driving the decline in white support is the incessant need for whites to virtue signal their support for whatever the dominant trend is. Especially white women. Uh oh. CNN says everyone thinks orange man bad. Don’t wanna be the only Drumpf supporter!

    Whites just don’t have any balls. The ones most vociferously woke are all white.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
    , @Rosie
    , @Thomm
  7. @Intelligent Dasein

    Minorities respect a strongman leader and somebody with confidence, more than whites do. That’s why Trump did better with Hispanics than Romney even after basically calling them rapists. They know the truth.

    That said, the GOPe strategy can only win by picking up enough minority votes on top of the 55% white vote. You’re never going to get Hispanics and blacks voting a majority for the small government, individual responsibility parties.

    The correct approach is to push an unapologetically anti-anti-white agenda, slow down the demographic change, and pick up minority votes along the way who recognize that a POC-ruled America will be like Venezuela on woke steroids.

    Drumpf might go from 14 to 20% black vote but that wont mean shit when theres no longer a large enough white bloc voting at 55-60% R.

    • Agree: Mark G.
    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    , @Lot
  8. neutral says:

    White nationalists are about 0.1% of the vote.

    That is the neocon voting number, the number of people who voted for Trump because of racial reasons is much higher than that.

  9. @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    Intelligent people of all creeds oppose Donald Trump because he is borderline retarded and has accomplished nothing a buffoon couldn’t do. If he gained minority support it’s because his McDonald’s jobs economy primarily benefitted Blacks and Hispanics, and Asians in STEM got tax cuts and less competition from his H1b rollback. He is still going to lose to Joe Biden in November, assuming he isn’t removed from office before then.

    • Replies: @Realist
  10. @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    Minorities respect a strongman leader and somebody with confidence ….

    Confidence? Maybe. Strongman? Hardly!

    Trump’s all Sturm und Drang, with occasional timid action which, when rebuffed by District Judges, results in him crawling beneath his desk and saying, “Oh yeah? We’ll see you in a higher court!” Hardly the stuff of a strongman.

    If he were a strongman, the number of suicides and mysterious deaths among former government officials would approach the bodycount of the Clinton era. Hell, Trump’s body count doesn’t even approach Reagan’s Iran-Contra bodycount.

    Trump is a piker!

    • Replies: @Hail
  11. @Intelligent Dasein

    I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again. The old GOPe strategy of appealing to minority voters was the correct one, they just never fielded a candidate with the huevos to pull it off until Trump came along. Trump is following the anti-Sailer strategy and he’s making it pay off, bigly.

    Trump did not appeal to non-whites in 2016. Their turnout was down (way down in the case of blacks, who are the heaviest Democratic voters) in 2016 vs 2008 or 2012. But the ones who did turn out overwhelmingly voted for Clinton.

    https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2017/05/voting_in_america.html

  12. iffen says:

    More polls that support my beliefs!

    We don’t need to separate;
    we just need to agitate for a % here and a % there.

  13. White Nationalists are the largest voter bloc.

    Hillary Clinton is a White Nationalist who moved to the mostly White town of Chappaqua, New York, in order to avoid having to live around Blacks and other non-Whites.

    Barack Obama is a Mulatto with White Nationalist leanings who moved to a wealthy and White part of Swamp City DC and to the mostly White island of Martha’s Vineyard. I don’t want to hear no guff about no Inkwell crud about some Black enclave that the Methodist morons dragged onto the island either. Harrumph!

    Charles Schumer is a Jew Nationalist who puts the interests of the Jew Nation ahead of the interests of the USA — that is TREASON. Charles Schumer is a Jew Nationalist who does the bidding of JOG — JEWS ORGANIZED GLOBALLY.

    When the beautiful young White broad with husband in tow tells the real estate agent that she wants to see homes in towns with “good schools” what she really means is towns that are mostly White if not all White. That young White lady is a White Nationalist.

    When the Whites and Asians and Jews in New York City fight against the Kraut bonehead mayor and his Mestizzo stooge school head honcho over selective schools what they really mean is that they don’t want their kids to have to be cheek by jowl with lower IQ Black and Mestizzo kids who can’t think too good and can’t behave too good. Those Asians and Jews and Whites are displaying sneaky WHITE NATIONALIST leanings.

    Trump is a disgusting politician whore for Jew billionaires such as Shelly Adelson and Paul Singer.

    Jew billionaire Shelly Adelson is a JEW NATIONALIST who funds and belongs to JOG — JEWS ORGANIZED GLOBALLY.

    Jew billionaire Paul Singer is a JEW NATIONALIST who funds and belongs to JOG — JEWS ORGANIZED GLOBALLY.

    Trump is a rancid politician whore for JOG — JEWS ORGANIZED GLOBALLY.

    Trump is screaming about dramatically increasing mass legal immigration.

    Trump is calling for the USA to be flooded with mass legal immigration “in the largest numbers ever.”

    Trump is refusing to deport the upwards of 30 million illegal alien invaders in the USA.

    Trump and the rancid Republican Party will be obliterated in the upcoming election at all levels.

    The treasonous politician scum in the Republican Party are slouching towards the boneyard of all defunct and decadent and depraved and duplicitous and decaying political parties.

    White Core America is the new political party that will advance the interests of Whites as Whites.

    White Core America Immigration Policy Pledge:

    IMMIGRATION MORATORIUM NOW!

    DEPORT ALL ILLEGAL ALIEN INVADERS NOW!

    FORCIBLY REMOVE THE FOREIGNERS NOW!

    220 BY 2040 OR FIGHT! White Core America Pledges To Get The Population Of The USA Back Down To 220 Million Like It Was In 1978.

    THE FOREIGNERS WILL BE GONE and so will plenty of White Globalizer Treasonites!

    • Replies: @sarz
    , @Rosie
  14. @Intelligent Dasein

    There is no long-term strategy for the GOP – or whites. The Sailer Strategy was a rear-guard action to slow the eventual. The GOP’s only hope was to shut down immigration in the 1990s. They didn’t. Therefore, they will go the way of the GOP in California.

    We’re not voting our way out of this. Whites who don’t hate themselves and their people need to understand that. What was our country will be taken over, as will our government. Our only hope is the long, slow process of carving out a community for ourselves in the coming multi-everything society.

  15. @Citizen of a Silly Country

    I wish, Citizen, that I could improve on your comment, but I can’t. Well and succinctly said, sir!

  16. Hail says: • Website
    @The Alarmist

    I agree with your first two paragraphs but would lean also towards saying it was more DJT’s never having his heart in it at all. It was like a high-stakes, high-profile form of barstool ranting about immigrants and foreign countries to him.

    One part weakling, two parts classic demagogue. Much more the picture of the con-artist than of the ideological insurgent like a 1990s-era Pat Buchanan was (would have been).

    LoutishAngloQuebecker is right that low-info voters don’t realize quite what a demagogue / con-man he was/is, and can be funneled into believing the failures (to the extent they are aware of them) are because of Democrats.

  17. Hail says: • Website
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    There is no long-term strategy for the GOP – or whites. The Sailer Strategy was a rear-guard action to slow the eventual

    From a Steve Sailer comment in Oct. 2019:

    The Sailer Strategy…assumes a Solid South for the R-team

    Here is a question: What comes after the Sailer Strategy?

    If Texas (38 EVs) and Georgia (16 EVs), maybe North Carolina (15 EVs), soon follow once-solid Virginia (13 EVs) on the sad path of “Solid R –> Likely D” in presidential voting, the Sailer Strategy as we have understood it in the 2000s and 2010s (and actually since the Nixon Coalition) begins to come apart.

    What then?

    In related news, Ann Coulter yesterday called for dissolution of the United States.

    SunBakedSuburb says:
    October 23, 2019 at 7:31 pm GMT

    “dissolution of the United States”

    This is inevitable. We should now be in the design phase of the new republic.

    Might it be starting right now in Virginia?

    Who would have guessed, in the 1990s or 2000s, or even the early and mid 2010s, that it would start in Virginia?

    • Replies: @WorkingClass
    , @Cloudbuster
  18. sarz says:
    @Charles Pewitt

    Trump himself is a Jew nationalist pretending, like his father before him, to be a Christian heritage American. Who says? Trump’s late older brother Freddy, to his Jewish fraternity frat brothers at Lehigh, who told the New York Times. This is the missing piece of the Trump puzzle.

  19. I wounder what percent of white voters are afraid to admit that they support Orange Man. How would you poll a question like that? I’m thinking that if you were afraid you would answer “not sure” or just decline to take the poll. But I’m asking the room anyway.

    Rod Dreher @ The American Conservative
    Commissars in STEM

    https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/commissars-in-stem/

  20. @Hail

    It started in 2016 when the blue team refused a peaceful transition of power. There is no going back.

  21. @Intelligent Dasein

    Actually, I honestly think that an anti-Black strategy would pull off more minority voters than a Sailer Strategy

    • Replies: @silviosilver
  22. Dutch Boy says:
    @neutral

    All true but I will still vote for him since all the Democrats are lunatics. Then again, I live in California and my vote counts for zilch.

  23. Rosie says:
    @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    What’s driving the decline in white support is the incessant need for whites to virtue signal their support for whatever the dominant trend is. Especially white women.

    Blah, blah, blah.

    White nationalists are about 0.1% of the vote.

    That’s only of you count the explicit ones. Implicitly, there are many, many more than that, and they will determine the outcome of the election.

    http://www.occidentaldissent.com/2018/08/19/new-survey-what-exactly-does-a-white-nationalist-look-like/

    White women voters will punish Trump for his abandonment of national populism. White men will go crawling back like they always do.

  24. Rosie says:
    @Charles Pewitt

    When the beautiful young White broad with husband in tow tells the real estate agent that she wants to see homes in towns with “good schools” what she really means is towns that are mostly White if not all White. That young White lady is a White Nationalist.

    Truth bomb!

  25. We’ve seen evidence that Congress, the FBI, the CIA, the DOJ and now the GAO are corrupt and partisan. But the polling companies? They are totes honest!

    • LOL: Twodees Partain
  26. @Hail

    Who would have guessed, in the 1990s or 2000s, or even the early and mid 2010s, that it would start in Virginia?

    I bet if you could go back and ask George Washington, James Madison or Thomas Jefferson, that’s what they would have guessed. The Adams’ and Hancock would of course have insisted it would be Massachusetts.

  27. @Rosie

    White women voters will punish Trump for his abandonment of national populism. White men will go crawling back like they always do.

    White male Republican Party money-grubbing oafs of the worst sort are the sonofabitches who infest and control the Republican Party Cheap Labor Faction. They push mass legal immigration and mass illegal immigration.

    White Republican Party boob boys are the bastards who are the owners of a lot of real estate assets and they are the damn avaricious scum who want to flood and pour all the mass legal immigration and mass illegal immigration into the USA to grab as much profit as they can.

    I wrote this in 2017:

    White lady voters know that open borders mass immigration lowers wages, displaces US workers, increases housing costs, swamps schools, overwhelms hospitals and harms the environment. White women voters know that open borders mass immigration brings Islamic terrorism to the USA and brings in foreigners who have ingrained anti-Women attitudes. White women know that foreign women are being rewarded with luxury benefits from the government.

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/wsj-h-1b-visas-keep-down-u-s-tech-wages-study-shows/#comment-1801066

    Tweet from 2015:

  28. Jay Fink says:

    I am surprised nobody mentioned that the black and Hispanic unemployment rate is at all time low. Trump brags about this and it has to be helping him with minorities. Yes I know it’s a bubble economy but few blacks and Hispanics understand this. neither do most white liberals or white Trump fans for that matter.

    My guess is most of Trump’s Hispanic support is among those who are English dominant and have lived in the U.S their entire lives (or since they can remember). I know a lot of these Hispanics and you would be surprised how different they see themselves from immigrant Hispanics. Some can only speak English and have had negative encounters with immigrants who yell at them and get angry at them for not speaking Spanish. These are the types of Hispanics who like Trump , even if he hasn’t done anything to stop immigration.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Lot
  29. Michael S says:

    Keep in mind, on the eve of the 2016 election, a lot of Bernie bros broke for Trump. Since he is still seen as a viable candidate for 2020, they will not be breaking for Trump in current polls.

    They may not break for him again in the 2020 election either, but we’ll see.

    Who knew that the key to winning black and Hispanic votes is to be the strong horse? Oh wait, we’ve always known that.

    He’ll never win the AWFL vote, though.

    • Replies: @A123
  30. A123 says:
    @Jay Fink

    My guess is most of Trump’s Hispanic support is among those who are English dominant and have lived in the U.S their entire lives (or since they can remember). I know a lot of these Hispanics and you would be surprised how different they see themselves from immigrant Hispanics.

    Hispanic is a poor way to aggregate for analysis. However, it winds up being used because it is an available data point from multiple sources.

    You point out one group that I missed (multi generation domestic). So a master list would break out like this:

    — Multi generation mainland — U.S. Citizens
    — Puerto Rican — U.S. Citizens
    — Cuban — Anti-Communist / Privileged Dry Foot migration status
    — Other Caribbean Islands
    — Mexican
    — Brazilian — Portuguese language (not Spanish),
    — Venezuelan — Recent migrants likely anti-Communist
    — Other South and Central American

    Depending on the issue, you can combine some of these groups.

    Also, these blocks have internal divides. Younger Cubans and older Cubans have significant differences.

    PEACE 😇

  31. A123 says:
    @Michael S

    Keep in mind, on the eve of the 2016 election, a lot of Bernie bros broke for Trump. Since he is still seen as a viable candidate for 2020, they will not be breaking for Trump in current polls.

    The #NeverWarren / #WarrenIsASnake, phenomenon is very dangerous for Dems if she is on the ticket. The DNC manipulated the system against Bernie in 2016. If there is any perception of bias by the DNC (again), it could easily create a firestorm.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Michael S
  32. Lot says:
    @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    Trump needs far more than 55% of the white vote. More like 63%.

    The YouGov poll is trash though.

    Not looking forward to another wave of “Trump’s gonna get 15% of the black vote!” based on low quality polls.

    • Replies: @Hail
  33. Lot says:
    @Jay Fink

    Hispanics who vote GOP:

    Cubans and Venezuelans fleeing communism
    Married into red-state White families
    Evangelicals
    Military and law enforcement
    Assimilated and live in 70+% GOP areas

    Those not meeting any of these vote 90% dem, when they actually vote. For example, the PR/Dominican parts of New York.

  34. @Intelligent Dasein

    The old GOPe strategy of appealing to minority voters was the correct one, they just never fielded a candidate with the huevos to pull it off until Trump came along.

    I don’t think it’s The Correct Strategy. But it is a better idea than the internet right gives credit for.
    You’re exactly right, it’s never been tried by somebody with balls. Same with DR3. No argument sounds good coming from a whiny nerd.

    On this note, I bet that a lot of GOP’s low performance with minorities comes from the fact that a lot of GOP politicians are personally unlikeable losers. And even those that aren’t, don’t have what it takes to maintain a cool frame.

    The reason the Sailer strategy does not work is

    It worked in 2016

    • Replies: @216
  35. Michael S says:
    @A123

    I don’t think Trump needs the bump, but yes, the current infighting within the Democrats is already causing defections and likely to cause more, or at least suppress their turnout. Blacks won’t vote for Pocahontas, nor will white Bernie bros.

    Biden probably gets a pass, but a very unenthusiastic one, and he is becoming so incoherent that he will get destroyed in the general debates. And Bloomberg is really eating into the support of 2nd-tier candidates.

    As I’ve pointed out before, Dem support looks much higher when comparing ${GENERIC_DEMOCRAT} to Trump, because pollees are thinking of their ideal platform, not the actual candidate with a specific platform. Individually they all have much worse prospects in the general election.

  36. Michael S says:
    @Rosie

    Do you just squat on this blog waiting to pounce on anyone who dares to suggest anything negative about women? It’s rare to see such flagrant examples of boundary-policing being tolerated in these spaces.

    Take that crap to the David French wing. Race and sex are both important; you don’t get to tell us that one matters more than the other, especially when the actual statistics point to the other mattering far more in absolute terms.

    • Agree: MBlanc46
    • Replies: @Rosie
  37. ariel says:

    in 2016 Trump won 21% of the minority vote , even if he wins 30% ( while losing 5% of white voters), he loses both the popular vote and the electoral college

  38. ariel says:

    about 20 % of hispanics have a white spouse , a significant percentage of these hispanics will vote for the GOP

  39. Hail says: • Website
    @Lot

    The YouGov poll is trash though.

    Not looking forward to another wave of “Trump’s gonna get 15% of the black vote!” based on low quality polls.

    Lot is right:

    Black Americans deeply pessimistic about country under president who more than 8 in 10 describe as ‘a racist,’ Post-Ipsos poll finds
    January 17, 2020 | Philadelphia Inquirer

    […] The findings come from a Washington Post-Ipsos poll of African Americans nationwide, which reveals fears about whether their children will have a fair shot to succeed

    A version of the idea that Blacks are about to defect from the D’s for [reasons], real soon, pops up every four years or so; every single time in my experience observing US politics through at least five full presidential cycles (2020 is the sixth), Blacks end up voting up to 10-to-1 Democrat in the end.

    The focus on/prediction of Black (and other Diverse) defection to the R’s is consistently wrong but consistently pushed; it must be lucrative to someone pushing it.

    (Also, this from the article: Is it a good time to be Black, under Donald “Lowest Black Unemployment Ever” Blompf?)

    A 65 percent majority of African Americans say it is a “bad time” to be a black person in America. That view is widely shared by clear majorities of black adults across income, generational and political lines. By contrast, 77 percent of black Americans say it is a “good time” to be a white person

    • Replies: @216
  40. 216 says: • Website
    @Hail

    It should be openly stated that such behavior by blacks is disgusting.

    Morally shaming.

    It works.

    If only Conservative Inc would try it.

  41. 216 says: • Website
    @Not My Economy

    On this note, I bet that a lot of GOP’s low performance with minorities comes from the fact that a lot of GOP politicians are personally unlikeable losers.

    Maybe.

    In practice, it has a lot more to do with the GOP’s fiscal and tax policies.

    The lone achievement of this otherwise scandal-plagued administration was a tax cut widely perceived as benefitting the rich and corporations.

    • Replies: @dfordoom
  42. 216 says: • Website

    Re: Neo-Victorian Feminists

    Tbh, I don’t get why the term “femcel” must be used in place of “spinster”.

    • Replies: @Rosie
  43. MBlanc46 says:
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Trump’s 2016 victory gave us a little breathing room in which to start getting organized for whatever comes next. A Trump victory—which seems unlikely—would give us a little more. After Trump, le deluge.

  44. MBlanc46 says:
    @Rosie

    White women voters will punish Trump because they’re mostly congenital Leftists.

    • Replies: @Rosie
  45. Rosie says:
    @MBlanc46

    White women voters will punish Trump because they’re mostly congenital Leftists.

    No, we’re not. Otherwise, Hillary Clinton would be president right now. The whole media establishment in the tank for her, and she still couldn’t get a majority of White women. How that adds up to “congenital Leftism” is beyond me.

  46. Rosie says:
    @Michael S

    Take that crap to the David French wing. Race and sex are both important; you don’t get to tell us that one matters more than the other, especially when the actual statistics point to the other mattering far more in absolute terms.

    1. I get to tell you whatever I damned well please, unless and until AE says otherwise.

    2. Let’s see some of those statistics.

    Contra Mblanc46, White women have voted for the Republican candidate in all but two presidential elections since 1952.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/white-women-gop/576586/

    But by all means, keep sucking up for allies among brothers of color and see where that gets you.

  47. portending a total wipeout for The Donald then, as i’ve been predicting for years. unfortunately.

    people who think africans will vote anything other than 90% democrat in November are just idiotic morons at this point. how many times do they have to be wrong?

    Donald Trump won the election by 100,000 votes between 3 states. millions of european voters have dumped him or literally died between 16 and 20. for practical purposes, he’s gained ZERO NEW VOTERS.

    these voting margins were thin before 16. by 12, a Republican candidate could not afford to lose more than 2% or 3% of the european vote, or they’d lose a national election. that’s what happened to Romney. i’d wager Trump has lost 5% of his european voters from 16, conservatively. probably more.

    he’s totally dead in the water. it would take a miracle for him to win. this is just the numbers, without getting into political developments like Trump allowing most of his online support to be deleted, the left’s absolute determination to rig state by state voting and introduce massive voter fraud in 18, enable ex-cons to vote, bring in more Mexicans and Puerto Ricans, and so forth.

    allowing Motor Voter, illegal alien driver’s licenses, which the Trump administration has done nothing about, is just the coup de grace.

    • Replies: @Hail
  48. Rosie says:
    @216

    Tbh, I don’t get why the term “femcel” must be used in place of “spinster”.

    But then why “incel” instead of “bachelor”?

    • Replies: @216
  49. 216 says: • Website
    @Rosie

    “Incel” refers to a specific cult, rather than a condition.

    “Bachelor” implies choice, and the possibility that said male could still marry. Such as why we coined “bachelorette”.

    “Spinster” is perjorative, except for some lesbian communes that positively identify with it.

    The data does show an increase in “female sexlessness” for under 30s, but nowhere near as high as the jump in male sexlessness.

    So Incel are very skeptical that “femcel” exist, seeing them as an attempt to invade a male space, and that women can more easily get sexual validation.

    The FDS Neo-Victorian community denies it now, but they did have a lot of “femcel” influence.

    • Replies: @Rosie
  50. Hail says: • Website
    @prime noticer

    Good comment. Trump has been terrible. I was for him from about Aug. 2015 to 2017, lingering against better judgment in 2018.

    I am puzzled by those of his core supporters who still support him. (I would define core supporters as whites, esp. those of Middle America mentality, who supported him on ethnonationalist grounds, as an insurgent specifically to overturn the moneychangers’ tables and make a real ‘go’ at reversing the decades of negative trends.)

    Even if he does win in Nov. 2020, it’s highly unclear whether that would be a good thing. I think I have firmly come around to the view that it is best if he lose, because he has been so bad that winning would mean, at best, nothing — plus the damocletian sword of the inevitable Second Term Amnesty. It seems almost certain he’d try it. A least-worst-option Democrat would be preferable and would unite opposition.

    • Replies: @Rosie
  51. Thomm says:
    @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    White nationalists are about 0.1% of the vote.

    Not just that, but their leftist-socialist economic views make someone like Bernie Sanders (at least before he did a 180 in favor of open borders) their first choice.

    The only reason some WNs vote Republican is because they hate black people slightly more than they hate white Libertarians.

  52. Rosie says:
    @216

    So Incel are very skeptical that “femcel” exist, seeing them as an attempt to invade a male space, and that women can more easily get sexual validation.

    And as I keep trying to tell folks, it doesn’t matter to us that it’s easier for us to get what men want.

  53. the problem is that the GOP plays that card all the time. they can play on those fears overt and sublime . . . and win. But that card is becoming increasingly less effective.

    The republicans and whites ride that train well — yet the society continues to degrade. It accomplishes nothing to win an election then squander the same . . . stop blaming conservatives, there has not been a conservative agenda in leadership since Pres Nixon and even then . . .

  54. Rosie says:
    @Hail

    Even if he does win in Nov. 2020, it’s highly unclear whether that would be a good thing.

    I have been thinking for some time now it would be better if he loses. If he wins, the takeaway will be that Whites can still be taken for granted we have been these past decades.

  55. @John Arthur

    Actually, I honestly think that an anti-Black strategy would pull off more minority voters than a Sailer Strategy

    This is a key component of the Sailer Strategy, not an alternative to it. Sailer has long urged Republicans to frame the Democrats as the “Black party.”

  56. Lol you cuckservatives won’t have a voice in 2024. #Trumpcult can’t do math in basic demographic shifts.

    Yes I am in the 8% category. And of course, that is no accident that “campaign ZoGnald” sounded a hell of a lot differently that “POTUS ZOGNALD” Israel first boys and girls.

    It is just a shame that so few Euro-blooded Americans ‘get it.’ Well, if you don’t get it now, it’s going to kick you square in the f’cking teeth in about a half decade. You got 5 years to realize you boned yourselves (assuming Zion-Don gets re-elected.)

    #NoPoliticalSolution American Politics is a uniparty of Pro-Corporatists owned by Zionists.

    Two wings of the same Jew-bird (right/left) vote all you want, the flight path stays the same.

    • Replies: @216
  57. 216 says: • Website
    @ChristusInvictus

    Have you considered Belarus? Or is Kazakhstan more to your liking?

  58. dfordoom says: • Website
    @216

    In practice, it has a lot more to do with the GOP’s fiscal and tax policies.

    It’s a shocking idea isn’t it, that maybe people don’t want to vote for a party that has made it clear that it hates anyone who isn’t rich.

    Trump managed to convince a lot of people that he actually did care about them, even if they weren’t rich. He’s going to have a much tougher job convincing them in 2020.

  59. Realist says:
    @JohnPlywood

    He is still going to lose to Joe Biden in November, assuming he isn’t removed from office before then.

    If Biden wins the Presidency the hilarity will begin. Biden is a doofus…a doddering dumbass.

  60. From the polling I’ve seen Trump has maintained non-college white support in key swing states and has increased enthusiasm

  61. NYT Polling

    CNN Polling

    Trump v Bernie (National White Vote) – 56% Trump, 42% Clinton

    Trump v Biden (National White Vote) – 54% Trump, 45% Biden

    Battleground polling + enthusiasm polling is very fascinating.

    2020 USA GDP estimates are right now in-line with a Trump re-election

    Atlanta Fed – 2%
    Blue Chip Economist – 2%
    Federal Reserve – 2%
    Federal Open Market Committee – 1.8%
    The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the U.S – 2.2%
    Dr. Bill Conerly – 2.5%
    Chicago Fed – 1.9%
    St.Louis Fed – 2.2%
    U.S Bureau of Economics – 2.5%
    Goldman Sachs – 2.3%
    IHS – 2.1%
    H. Plecher, – 2.1%
    Stock Market Forecasters – 3%

    At that the fundamental model supports that Trump must maintain -15% Approval to get 271 EC at 2% growth or -10% approval at 1.5% growth (Trump according to 538 hes at -12, -10 with likely voters, RCP -8, Gallup -9, CNN -9, Monmouth -9, Civics -8, Fox -8)

    2016 CCES Post-election survey (only) vs NYT Polling

    Arizona Whites (CCES) – 54% Trump, 39% Clinton |
    Arizona Whites (NYT) – 52-55% Trump, 39-44% Dem

    Arizona Latinos (CCES) – 56% Clinton, 34% Trump
    Arizona Latinos (NYT) – 63-70% Dem, 19-23% Trump

    Florida Whites (CCES) – 57% Trump, 39% Clinton
    Florida Whites (NYT) – 55% Trump, 34-37% Dem

    Florida Latinos (CCES) – 56% Clinton, 40% Trump
    Florida Latinos (NYT) – 46-56% Dem, 36-39% Trump

    Florida Blacks (CCES) – 84% Clinton, 9% Trump
    Florida Blacks (NYT) – 66-78% Dem, 11% Trump

    Iowa Whites (CCES) – 51% Trump, 40% Clinton
    Iowa Whites (NYT) – 48-50% Trump, 39-42% Dem

    Iowa Hispanics (CCES) – 47% Trump, 47% Clinton
    Iowa Hispanics (NYT) – 57-73% Dem, 20-22% Trump

    Michigan Whites (CCES) – 52% Trump, 42% Clinton
    Michigan Whites (NYT) – 49-51% Trump, 33-39% Dem

    Michigan Blacks (CCES) – 89% Clinton, 4% Trump
    Michigan Blacks (NYT) – 64-74% Dem, 15-18% Trump

    North Carolina Whites (CCES) – 59% Trump, 36% Clinton
    North Carolina Whites (NYT) – 60% Trump, 33% Dem

    North Carolina Blacks (CCES) – 88% Clinton, 10% Trump
    North Carolina Blacks (NYT) – 78-85% Dem, 7-9% Trump

    Pennsylvania Whites (CCES) – 53% Trump, 42% Clinton
    Pennsylvania Whites (NYT) – 50-51% Trump, 39-40% Dem

    Pennsylvania Blacks (CCES) – 91% Clinton, 6% Trump
    Pennsylvania Blacks (NYT) – 75-91% Den, 1-7% Trump

    Pennsylvania Latinos (CCES) – 76% Clinton, 18% Trump
    Pennsylvania Latinos (NYT) – 59-68% Dem, 27-32% Trump

    Wisconsin Whites (CCES) – 48% Trump, 44% Clinton
    Wisconsin Whites (NYT) – 48% Trump, 44% Dem

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