The following graphs compare the last YouGov poll taken on the eve of the 2016 election with the most recent YouGov poll in mid-January of 2020 by race. One major distinction, of course, is that the 2020 Democrat candidate has yet to be determined. We are thus making a Clintons-to-Generics comparison.
From a Trumpian perspective, things appear woeful among whites:
Better among blacks:
Happier among Hispanics:
And astonishing among others:
Trump’s point gain (loss) in 2020 relative to 2016, by race:
Seeing is believing, sure. These are merely polling prognostications. But the potential wrenches they throw in both conventional and contrarian narratives is fascinating.