The Unz Review: An Alternative Media Selection
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 TeasersAudacious Epigone Blog
Democrat Candidate Correlates
🔊 Listen RSS
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • BShow CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeThanksLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Thanks, LOL, or Troll with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

The following table, created from results of Democrat primary survey data in the most recent Quinnipiac poll, shows the correlation in relative support by demographic group between the top seven candidates. The demographic categories considered are political orientation (very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate/conservative), sex (men, women), race (white, black), age (18-29, 30-44, 45-64, 65+) and annual income (less than $50k, $50k-$100k, over $100k). Positive correlations indicate similar demographic support profiles, negative correlations indicate dissimilar ones:

To make the information easier to digest, here is how the rest of the field compares to each candidate, from most similar to least similar.

Biden:

1) Bloomberg
2) Klobuchar
3) Buttigieg
4) Warren
5) Sanders
6) Yang

Sanders:

1) Yang
2) Warren
3) Buttigieg
4) Bloomberg
5) Biden
6) Klobuchar

Warren:

1) Yang
2) Sanders
3) Klobuchar
4) Buttigieg
5) Biden
6) Bloomberg

Klobuchar:

1) Bloomberg
2) Buttigieg
3) Biden
4) Warren
5) Yang
6) Sanders

Buttigieg:

1) Klobuchar
2) Yang
3) Bloomberg
4) Sanders
5) Warren
6) Biden

Yang:

1) Sanders
2) Warren
3) Buttigieg
4) Bloomberg
5) Klobuchar
6) Biden

Bloomberg:

1) Biden
2) Klobuchar
3) Buttigieg
4) Yang
5) Sanders
6) Warren

Pairing the top three candidates up with the one most dissimilar to him/herself for a potential full ticket, with the more popular one at the top, yields the following:

Biden/Yang
Sanders/Klobuchar
Warren/Bloomberg

A Warren/Bloomberg ticket is implausible, but the other two are quite conceivable. Though I’m still eating Harris Crow leftovers, I’ll go ahead and audaciously predict a Biden/Yang nomination now.

On the other side of things, the most demographically similar candidates stand to gain the lion’s share from said similar candidates dropping out. The progressive cannibalization from Sanders and Warren is the most salient illustration of this. Less often discussed but potentially critical in ending the nominating process in a brokered convention instead of giving it to Biden is Bloomberg’s attempt to garner high single-digit support by buying the airwaves. If Bloomberg’s primary (heh) concern is keeping the nomination away from Warren and especially Sanders, it seems as likely to backfire as it is to succeed. The voters Bloomberg buys will mostly come at Biden’s expense.

Parenthetically, the poll also shows the percentages of likely primary/caucus voters who say they’ve made up their minds on who they are going to vote for and who say they may yet change their minds before primary/caucus day. The figures have remained remarkably steady over the last several months. In September of last year, 34% had decided and 63% remained up in the air. Today, 35% say they have decided while 63% remain up in the air. The last several months of debates and campaigning have done little more than winnow away the weakest candidates.

It remains to be seen whether or not Iowa and New Hampshire provide enough anti-Biden momentum to sink him in Nevada and South Carolina, but it’s safe to expect little change between now and the Iowa caucus in three weeks.

 
• Category: Culture/Society, Ideology • Tags: Election 2020 
Hide 66 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
    []
  1. Thomm says:

    Though I’m still eating Harris Crow leftovers,

    Your next two servings of pheasant and Greater Adjutant, after the appetizer of crow :

    2) That Biden will destroy Trump in the general election. In reality, Trump wins easily, against Biden or any other Democrat.

    3) That a stock market correction will *increase* inflation in other parts of the economy, even without new Fed printing, due to ‘leakage’ of inflation out of stock to other places. This is just so completely the opposite of what will happen that this is a main course.

    You will have to consume the Greater Adjutant (in one sitting) :

    https://download.ams.birds.cornell.edu/api/v1/asset/160191381/1800

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_adjutant

  2. songbird says:

    I’d like to play the Odd Couple music for Warren and Bloomberg because I think that would make a funny dynamic. It would be like Carrie Nation and Al Capone teaming up. I mean if Carrie secretly worked for the bootleggers.

  3. Anon[143] • Disclaimer says:
    @Thomm

    I agree Trump will win reelection easily. Biden has the best chance, but even he will lose. There’s lots of hype regarding Sanders, but I think Sanders would get crushed, and would be among the worst candidates for the Dems to face Trump. Sanders in the general would be like Corbyn’s recent big loss against Boris Johnson. Sanders has a small intense base, but that’s it. They’re trying to meme him into having lots of appeal to normal Americans, but most normal Americans don’t like him or his brand of old school NYC Jewish socialism. Lots of Jews on the right like Lion of the Blogosphere, Dave Pinsen, and even Sailer like to promote him because on the surface he and his messaging don’t come across as aggressively anti-American like most Jews, but he and his politics are just as bad.

    You’re also right that a stock market correction will not increase inflation but rather produce the opposite. Corrections produce a negative wealth effect which causes people, even those without money in the market, to spend less. Also the wealthy with lots of money to plow into the market don’t spend much on consumer goods anyway, so if they stopped buying stocks, they wouldn’t spend much on consumer goods. They would just shift to other financial and real assets, not consumer goods, And even if they did tend to spend on consumer goods, there’s only so many ordinary consumer goods like burgers, toothpaste, toilet paper, etc. the wealthy can purchase anyway. The wealthy buy luxury goods and investment assets.

    • Replies: @SFG
    , @Audacious Epigone
  4. Usually Yang gets left off these sorts of things, but this time it was Tulsi Gabbard.

    • Agree: houston 1992
    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  5. ‘I’ll go ahead and audaciously predict a Biden/Yang nomination now.’

    Nah. Biden will want a woman of color as his running mate, while — particularly given Biden’s age –our handlers will want someone who is explicitly subservient to Israel in that slot.

    I’ll suggest Biden is going to drag Kamala Harris up onto the stage. It’s gotta be someone non-white, it’s gotta be a woman, and it’s gotta love Israel the bestest. Who else?

  6. Nodwink says:

    Pocahontas just blew up her campaign by going for Bernie that way. Such an obvious fabrication, desperate and dishonest.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  7. @Thomm

    That a stock market correction will *increase* inflation in other parts of the economy, even without new Fed printing, due to ‘leakage’ of inflation out of stock to other places.

    I agree with you on Trumpslide 2020, but here it appears you assert that cash raised from selling will be spent into the economy.

    It won’t. If there is an actual gain it will sit in cash and wait to buy more stawks, or go into some other investment vehicle (real estate, commodities, currencies, etc.). Asset price inflation will continue until the currency detonates.

    • Replies: @216
  8. SFG says:
    @Anon

    The polls all say Biden has the best chance, followed by Sanders; the other two lose. Of course we all know how trustworthy the polls are.

    Is Sailer promoting Sanders? He just seems to see him as less disgusting than the rest of the field. (I haven’t followed Pinsen or LOTB closely).

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  9. It remains to be seen whether or not Iowa and New Hampshire provide enough anti-Biden momentum to sink him in Nevada and South Carolina, but it’s safe to expect little change between now and the Iowa caucus in three weeks.

    I want Sanders and Warren and Buttigieg to rhetorically bash the living Hell out of Joe Biden at tonight’s debate. Klobuchar can pick her nose for all I care about what that baby boomer boob does. I’d rather watch a YouTube video about Alligator Gars than pay attention to the antics of Klobuchar. You don’t scream at staffers for forgetting the plastic forks, Amy! That’s not very NICE NICE NICE Midwestern NICE, is it?

    The reason is that I want the Sanders voters and some small portion of the Warren voters to get so disenamoured of Biden that they’ll support the Green Party when Biden wraps up the Democrat Party presidential nomination on March 3.

    Biden will use the AUNT JEMIMA STRATEGY to knock the stuffing out of any sonofabitch candidate who thinks that they’re going to get so-called “momentum” out of narrowly winning Iowa or New Hampshire. They’re all gonna be bunched up in Iowa and New Hampshire and Bernie Sanders is not going to run away with a massive victory like he got over baby boomer bastard Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.

    Big Beautiful Black Church Ladies(BBBCL) in South Carolina are putting lead weights in their large and stylish black handbags and they are going to use their big, beefy upper arms and strong Black backs to electorally pound the stuffing out of the political enemies of Joe Biden.

    BBBCL are gonna vote for some Brooklyn-born Vermont Bolshevik Jew who sounds like that cartoon aardvark? Bull-sheetrock!

    BBBCL are gonna vote for that baby boomer Tennessee Militia Woman who says she’s an Amerindian Harvard Snot? NOPE!

    You say BBBCL gonna go for Buttplug? Pull that thing out of your ear and listen to what you’re saying? NEVER!

    Biden wins the Democrat Party presidential nomination on March 3 and that sets in motion a big movement of voters to the Green Party and the surge in support for the Green Party leads to a near simultaneous surge in support for the new political party called WHITE CORE AMERICA that advances the interests of Whites — as Whites — and that will be the political situation as we head inevitably for Civil War II.

  10. A123 says:

    Would Biden take any of Yang’s ideas onboard? If not, having someone like that as a VP choice may create execution problems.

    In a brokered convention, Biden/Warren seems a likely outcome. They need each other to out flank Sanders.

    Biden has gaffe problems, so Biden/Harris seems unlikely. The DNC desperately wants to capture Georgia, so Biden/Abrams could happen. Abrams provides a 3-way balance for gender, race, & geography (critical state).

    PEACE 😇

  11. nymom says:

    I don’t see Biden and Yang…not woke enough.

    Additionally, I think most blacks will stay home and not bother voting as they did in 2016 due to being angry that another black candidate isn’t running for President…

    • Replies: @216
    , @Jay Fink
  12. How about Biden/Buttigieg?

    Biden brings in the Black vote and Buttigieg brings in the White.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  13. @Colin Wright

    Biden will have to pick someone who can gain him votes in the industrial midwest that cost Hillary the election–and agreed, someone who knows how to obey their master.

    I predict the Democratic equivalent of a Dan Quayle, someone laughably stupid who will make Biden look like a statesman. That probably means no “minorities” or women–it will probably be a Senator or Governor that has kept a low profile.

    Since they have a low profile, I don’t know who they will be!

  14. It remains to be seen whether or not Iowa and New Hampshire provide enough anti-Biden momentum to sink him in Nevada and South Carolina, but it’s safe to expect little change between now and the Iowa caucus in three weeks.

    Biden will emerge from the Iowa brawl and the New Hampshire scuffle with the AUNT JEMIMA STRATEGY in full force and Biden will blast to victory in South Carolina and Nevada.

    The AUNT JEMIMA STRATEGY is to win the votes of Black lady voters in the South and other areas of high Black population concentration. Hillary Clinton used the AUNT JEMIMA STRATEGY to fend of Bernie Sanders in the 2016 Democrat Party presidential primary campaign.

    Biden has been born to use the AUNT JEMIMA STRATEGY against his political enemies and no one else can claim the allegiance of the beautiful Black lady voters who make the AUNT JEMIMA STRATEGY such a full force gale of nature and God’s nature and Mother Nature and all the other great Gods of this infinite universe.

    A reminder that I stated the obvious about the paramount importance of the AUNT JEMIMA STRATEGY in October of 2018:

    Whichever Democrat Party presidential primary aspirant uses the AUNT JEMIMA STRATEGY the most effectively will win the Democrat Party nomination for president in 2020.

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/new-yorker-warren-promotes-insidious-ideas-about-race-and-dna/#comment-2578737

    California will be captured by Biden on March 3 and that’s that.

    Right now, Biden and Warren and Sanders are all bunched up about 20 percent in California, but Biden will grab all those votes and the Bernie Bros and the Bernie Broads will be heading for the Green Party like bastards. A lot of Warren voters will be strolling over to the Green Party too.

    The Democrat Party presidential nomination will be Biden’s on March 3 and that is when the Democrat Party implodes.

    Trump and the Republican Party will not benefit from the Biden-induced implosion of the Democrat Party because Trump and the Republican Party will be simultaneously challenged for WHITE voter support by the WHITE CORE AMERICA political party.

    Whites born after 1965 will flock to the proud and patriotic WHITE CORE AMERICA political party and the Republican Party will lose plenty of decent European Christian American voters born before 1965. WHITES will proudly vote for a political party that explicitly advances the interests of White people as White people.

    Biden’s use of the AUNT JEMIMA STRATEGY will bring about the formation of the new political party called WHITE CORE AMERICA.

    Beauty is SYMMETRY.

    • Replies: @SFG
  15. 216 says: • Website
    @Ash Williams

    I would not be surprised to see Trump win re-election, including the popular vote, MN and NH, maybe even ME if Bernie supporters vote third party or stay home.

    But at the same time the Democrats would retain control of the House, and win the Senate. This would be the result of running an “EconomyFirst” campaign focused on retaining the two-time Obama switchers of ’16, and finding the “Trump Democrat” independent voters that like the economy but won’t vote GOP elsewise.

    • Agree: houston 1992
  16. 216 says: • Website
    @nymom

    In 2020 Obama will be able to campaign full time with the Dem nominee, which he was not able to do in ’16 as lame duck.

    He retains tremendous personal popularity in this country, and could outperform Bill Clinton’s involvement in his 2012 re-election.

  17. I’ll go ahead and audaciously predict a Biden/Yang nomination now.

    = Trump shoo-in.

    So I hope you’re right (though I highly doubt it).

  18. gman says:

    Andrew Yang for VP is getting the AE Bounce on MSNBC of ALL Places!!

    At the 3:20 mark, Stephanie Ruhle floats the idea

    https://www.msnbc.com/stephanie-ruhle/watch/analysis-yang-s-message-connecting-with-men-who-feel-forgotten-76701765544

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  19. 216 says: • Website

    o/t

    Tortious interference?

  20. Hail says: • Website

    I can see Stacey Abrams as a possible Vice President pick.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
  21. 216 says: • Website

    o/t

    Meghan, our Neo-Victorian Feminist Qween

  22. @Thomm

    2) A hedge: I suspect Biden will beat Trump and will be Trump’s toughest potential matchup, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Trump won. I’d put the odds at 2:1 in Biden’s favor. Trump beats Warren or Buttigieg. Sanders is hard to tell, though I think Trump would also beat him. There is no one who would get reluctant Republicans and Never Trumpers to rally behind Trump than Sanders.

  23. @Thomm

    3) We’re in QE4 now. The Fed is pumping tens of billions of dollars of new money into the economy each month.

    • Replies: @Thomm
  24. @Anon

    The dollar is going to weaken substantially. That will overwhelm the effects from modestly shifting consumer preferences among the affluent.

  25. @Hail

    Stacy Abrams is a possibility.

    She’s been taking care to avow her love for Israel lately. Will past sins be forgiven?

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/what-does-stacey-abrams-primary-win-mean-for-democrats-and-israel/

  26. @Lockean Proviso

    If you’ve read the blog much over the last year, you’ll know we like Tulsi Gabbard. Unfortunately, her polled support is abysmal. These sorts of metrics don’t work when we’re talking about support levels in the 0%-5% range, and that’s where all of Tulsi’s demographic categories are.

    • Replies: @216
  27. @Colin Wright

    Does it have to be a POC woman? Yang is the tamest kind of ‘diversity’–young and Asian–but it’s still more diversity than Trump/Pence.

  28. @Nodwink

    Unfortunately for Sanders, the presumably mendacious charge will stick, because that’s the zeitgeist his supporters have helped create.

    • Replies: @Nodwink
  29. @SFG

    Maybe they’ll chime in here. Pinsen reads with regularity, LOTB does at least occasionally. Hello old friends!

  30. @Ris_Eruwaedhiel

    That’s as safe an establishment ticket as can be had. Blacks really don’t like Buttigieg. They’ll stick with Biden if he goes with someone they view as neutral, like Yang, but stick a thumb in their eye with someone like Buttigieg and I’m not so sure.

    • Replies: @gman
  31. @216

    How are Democrats going to win the Senate?

    • Replies: @216
  32. @gman

    Perfectly dovetails with this post. The guy even mentions that Yang’s support is coming from a similar place as Sanders’ and Warrens’.

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @gman
  33. Thomm says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    Yes. So?

    It is boosting the stock market, but also other indicators (jobs, etc.). In no way does that mean that a stock market crash would cause high inflation in different asset classes as a result of the crash. That is just not how inflation works. A plunging sense of wealth lowers inflation.

    A formidable, huge, cantankerous fowl lies in your culinary future :

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRnEe96pmbKwvxtTTBE0s7Z9yeu7k5AtK7YIjZoAfoqsQ5Oz0RhJw&s

  34. 216 says: • Website
    @Audacious Epigone

    AZ, CO, ME, NC, GA (2)

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  35. SFG says:
    @Charles Pewitt

    Charles, you can use Capitalized First Letters to discuss a key concept that requires multiple words to specify appropriately. Unlike German, we are not able to stick words together without looking Reallypedanticsilly, but a series of words in Capitalized First Letters, like ‘White Core America’, looks substantially less ‘screamy’ than ‘WHITE CORE AMERICA’. 😉

    As for your actual argument…unfortunately third parties don’t do well in this country. The Republicrats make ballot access requirements impossibly high. I myself wouldn’t mind seeing a Capitalist Party, a Populist Party, and an SJW Party competing for votes, but hey, that’s the way things work. (I’m sure that it winds up benefiting elitist social liberals and economic conservatives is just a coincidence…)

    • Replies: @Charles Pewitt
  36. 216 says: • Website
    @Audacious Epigone

    Other than her (surgery?) looks, Gabbard doesn’t have much going for her. Personality wise, she’s grating, not surprising from a military officer background. She’s far too ambitious and fame-hungry, and unwilling to actually put in the legislative work.

    And lest we forget, she’s a divorced and remarried woman that valued career over family. She’s 3/4ths white and pretends to be brown.

    Her utility begins and ends with causing division in the left. But she’s just a Kucinich that our people simp for.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  37. gman says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    If Sanders lost, I don’t think it would be because of “Never-Trumpers” failing to rally behind Sanders

    It would be the Democratic establishment (Clinton world, Obama world), CEOs, corporate media, etc. undermining his campaign.

    I think of the 4 major candidates, Sanders would get by far the worst media coverage.

    A Sanders win (unlike an even Warren win) would bring in new staff (from non-establishment places) and, more importantly, would be a rebuke to their world view. The Clinton people are still in “Blame anything including Russia rather than Hillary”-mode. Their heads would explode if Sanders would be able to win where Hillary lost.

  38. gman says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    Yup

    Still really surprised MSNBC had a segment that was actually somewhat positive to Yang; It’s definitely been the most anti-Yang of the three networks (excluding him from polling/fundraising graphics, calling him john yang, etc.) It was so bad he boycotted the network for a while

  39. gman says:

    I’m still forming this idea but I think an inflection point on identity politics might be coming

    There seems to be quite a few Sanders supporters who are more loyal to him than identity politics.

    This from TYT’s Emma Vigeland

    Some seem to appreciate that identity politics concerns could trip up Sanders. Earlier in primary, some were worried that Harris would go after Sanders and he would look bad due to his race/gender.
    The mainstream media will primarily use identity politics to attack Sanders. The View recently portrayed him as sexist, irritating Sanders supporters.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  40. JL says:

    Considering that UBI is the center of Yang’s platform, not to mention appeal, taking him on as a VP candidate doesn’t make any sense unless the main candidate also adopts this position, which is pretty much impossible. I tend to wonder if he’d even be interested. I agree with the commenter above that there will not be a ticket made up of two candidates from the current primary field.

    The dollar is going to weaken substantially.

    Are you just saying this, or do actually have a position? Because short DXY is looking a lot like the short JGB trade, infamously known as the “widow maker”.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  41. Lets hope you eat crow

    * I have a lot more state specific data

    Trump currently has a personal rating of 46% favorable and 52% unfavorable among registered voters. The president’s personal rating has grown slightly more positive since news of the Ukraine call first broke, but the shifts so far are not statistically significant. He had a 44%-54% rating in November and a 43%-56% rating in late September. Moreover, there continues to be a wide net negative gap among those who have a strong opinion of the president – 33% very favorable versus 47% very unfavorable.

    The leading Democratic contenders to take on the president in 2020 have also seen little change in their own personal ratings over the past month. Biden has a rating of 43% favorable and 50% unfavorable among all registered voters (identical to his 43%-50% rating in November), Sanders has a rating of 41% favorable and 54% unfavorable (identical to his 41%-54% rating in November), and Warren has a rating of 40% favorable and 50% unfavorable (slightly more negative than her 42%-44% rating in November). South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg gets a 34% favorable and 35% unfavorable rating, which is a slight improvement from his 27%-34% rating in November.

    Among validated CCES voters, 87% of Trump’s ultimate vote share showed up in pre-election vote intent question, compared to 91% for Clinton. In most states, Clinton’s vote showed up more among actual voters in pre-election CCES than Trump’s. True Undecideds or shy Trumpers?

    Overall Sanders voters gave 75% of support to Hillary, Meanwhile Cruz voters gave 86%, Kasich 50%, and 72% from Rubio to Trump. Meaning that Bernie Sanders and his supporters rallied behind Hillary more than Republicans did with Trump

    67% of white evangelical Christian voters approve of President Trump in the new Fox News poll, down *horrifically* from ~70% in November 2016 (VOTER survey)

    86% of white evangelicals voted for him in 2016 regardless of disapproval. Georgia governor Kemp got 89% in 2018 (I don’t currently know his approval pre-election day) and did you know only 83% of eligible white evangelicals are registered to vote, hence why Trump referenced the evangelical registration drive.

    I’m honestly surprised the enthusiasm dems are giving the fox poll, it is Biden’s worst numbers in several months, and Trump has a 24% black approval and maintains above 15% against all his competitors (possible)

    But the interesting thing is white catholics polled put approval/intend to vote Trump at around an average 67% each, above the CCES approval numbers of 58% in CCES 2018 and the 59% who reported voting for him in the CCES 2016. Its worth noting Data for Progress polls in 2018 showed 60% of white catholics intended to vote Trump in 2020 and Non-White Catholic support jumped from 27% to 33%

    Now if we look at that on top of Catholic vote in 2018 and well we see why Wisconsin is polling to the right of national polls. –
    Catholic vote 2018

    It is also important to note that an estimated 23.4 million eligible Catholics did not vote in the 2018 midterms. The Catholic voting eligible population (VEP) totals 49 million (Catholic voting age population, including non-citizens and others ineligible to vote, is 53 million). Catholics made up 23% of all voters, which is larger than the share of self-identified Catholics among U.S. adults (21%). While the 2018 results offer some insight into what might happen in 2020 it is also important to consider that some of the Senate and gubernatorial election dynamics (e.g., Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin winning in West Virginia) are unlikely to be reproduced in a national contest and more Catholics will likely go to the polls in 2020.

    Now combine this with NYTs poll of the Midwest

    To my knowledge, no public pollster adjusts for this–either in terms of sampling or weighting.
    Now, here’s Trump approval in PA/WI/MI, by vote history:
    Voted 2016 and 2018: 47-51
    Voted 2016 not 2018: 55-43
    Didn’t vote 2016, voted 2018: 38-61
    Neither: 52-45

    Estimates based on an amalgamation of the Census’s various 2016 CPS data.

    Estimates of eligible citizens who didn’t vote in 2016, non-whites vs. whites w/o college degrees (in thousands):

    AZ: 904 / 684

    GA: 1,303 / 1,172

    TX: 4,274 / 2,665

    FL: 2,565 / 2,566

    MI: 643 / 1,564

    MN: 259 / 786

    NC: 834 / 1,105

    PA: 695 / 2,290

    WI: 306 / 819

    IA: 90 / 612

    ME: 34 / 207

    NV: 325 / 387

    NH: 25 / 220

    OH: 580 / 2,051

    I am skeptical any D can replicate HRC’s performance with Latinos. Though national exit polling said Trump did better than Romney with Latinos overall, he unarguably did worse in FL where they are much more conservative Both exit polls and county results can easily show that.

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
  42. @Audacious Epigone

    Our two way senate vote in 2018 in MI/MN/WI relative to the country overall was R+1/D+1.1/D+1. Pretty clear we’d have been favored to lose in each of those states in an open race in a neutral year.

    I still find it baffling that people make the case Minnesota isn’t shifting Republican in the face of the fact that her margin narrowed by 10 pts btwn her 1st and 2nd reelections despite 2018 being 7 points more D-leaning than 2012.

    Democrat vote share in Minnesota peaked in 1972. More accurately, it’s related to how liberal Minnesota was immediately after the Vietnam war when the Hmong were resettled.

    Worth remembering that relative to national mean, the Midwest was roughly as bad for Democrats in 2018 as 2016. Basically every midwestern race came in below public expectations. They lost OH-Gov, OH and MI senate ended up being substantially closer than people had thought (and that was due to late movement in the final weeks of the campaign), Wisconsin governor was tied in a D+8 year, Minnesota was D+7 in a D+8 year, the house races in WI/MN were awful

  43. SafeNow says:

    Maybe a deadlocked convention, which serious columnists like Rove now consider. If that occurs, I think then-current polling might predict that none of the candidates is able to beat Trump. This would preclude shifting votes from one to the other. Instead, an outsider would be nominated — Michelle. The latest poll has her beating Trump by only 3 points, but that would increase.

  44. Here’s another way of looking at the candidates. What subreddits do the candidate’s fans use? (Using https://anvaka.github.io/redsim/ )

    JoeBiden
    MacGyverThis
    LetsGetLaid
    sapiosexual
    Sanda
    Hispanic
    … sexually frustrated “intellectuals” and Hispanics.

    SandersForPresident
    politics
    atheism
    technology
    conspiracy
    progressive

    ElizabethWarren
    EasternCT
    NutCases
    VeryImportantPlace
    Millennials

  45. Jay Fink says:
    @Colin Wright

    I would hope Biden wouldn’t select Harris after she tried to destroy him by branding him a racist over school bussing. He should hold a grudge over that.

  46. Jay Fink says:
    @nymom

    We might have overestimated how much blacks care about voting for other blacks. If it was that important to them they would have latched on to either Harris or Booker.

    Perhaps Obama is the reason for this. Blacks know, some consciously some subconsciously, that their lives didn’t change under Obama.

  47. @SFG

    Charles, you can use Capitalized First Letters to discuss a key concept that requires multiple words to specify appropriately. Unlike German, we are not able to stick words together without looking Reallypedanticsilly, but a series of words in Capitalized First Letters, like ‘White Core America’, looks substantially less ‘screamy’ than ‘WHITE CORE AMERICA’. 😉

    WHITE CORE AMERICA is a patriotic political party that celebrates the British Protestant colonizers and settlers and pioneers and founders of the USA.

    WHITE CORE AMERICA leadership always has some colonial American ancestry and some blood ancestors who fought in the American Colonial Secessionary War From The British Empire.

    WHITE CORE AMERICA pledges to implement an immigration moratorium and WHITE CORE AMERICA pledges to immediately deport the upwards of 30 million illegal alien invaders in the USA.

    WHITE CORE AMERICA cares not one whit about the appearance of so-called “screamy” rhetoric or propaganda since we are a vanguard party of conquerors who want to appeal to decent and honorable people, not go-along-to-get-along upper middle class striver type slobs with no integrity whatsoever.

    WHITE CORE AMERICA is aristocratic and ancestral and we despise the dishonorable corporate managerial type people that are destroying the USA with mass legal immigration and mass illegal immigration and other anti-White attacks on the European Christian ancestral core of the USA.

    WHITE CORE AMERICA will defeat duplicitous Trump and the rancid donor-controlled politician whores in the Republican Party and that is a sacred pledge.

    The evil and immoral Republican Party is slouching off to the political boneyard of all dodo and defunct political parties.

    It’s OKAY To Be German!

    It’s OKAY To Be White!

    I love GERMANS!

    There were a lot of Germans in the South at the time of the American Secessionry War from the British Empire.

    Some of my ancestors had surnames of Rader and Andes and Reinhard.

    God Bless The USA And To Hell With The Rancid Republican Party!

  48. Tulip says:

    Yang is a political outsider who’s highest appeal is with the political fringes. He will never be offered the VP slot by Biden. On the other hand, if Biden selected Warren, he’d have the historic first woman VP, and it would gain him some traction with the Progressive wing of the party. Get your box wine and your pussy hat on and go celebrate! So if anything Biden/Warren would be my guess for a ticket.

  49. Nodwink says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    I would say the zeitgeist was created by Hillary’s team. Even the Bezos Post couldn’t bring themselves to endorse it. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/02/24/these-6-charts-show-how-much-sexism-hillary-clinton-faces-on-twitter/

  50. Leopold says:

    Of course Trump will win. AE is like a cuckservative, in that he wants to insist that Republicans will lose, and doesn’t seem happy that Trump is doing well.

    • Disagree: Gman
  51. @Leopold

    Audacious is an empiricist though, too much reliance on data can be fatal though.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
  52. “Of course Trump will win. AE is like a cuckservative, in that he wants to insist that Republicans will lose, and doesn’t seem happy that Trump is doing well.”

    That’s an interesting take and while the author and I have our disagreements, from what i understand the term means, the evidence is mighty thin.

    This election remains one for the current executive to lose. The agenda for I voted and he claimed to represents has been carpet rolled by the side show of impeachment and every month some new international, crisis noncrisis . . . meanwhile —–

    a wall is nowhere in existence and neither is the policy on immigration —
    disappointing to say the least.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Audacious Epigone
  53. A123 says:
    @EliteCommInc.

    a wall is nowhere in existence

    The deep state establishment has been resisting border security. Did you see the most recent funding news? (1)

    President Donald Trump will … use his national emergency powers to divert an additional $7.2 billion in Pentagon funding for border wall construction this year, five times what Congress authorized him to spend on the project in the 2020 budget, according to internal planning figures obtained by The Washington Post.

    The Pentagon funds would be extracted, for the second year in a row, from military construction projects and counternarcotics funding. According to the plans, the funding would give the government enough money to complete [a total of] approximately 885 miles of new fencing by spring 2022, far more than the 509 miles the administration has slated for the U.S. border with Mexico.

    We all want more, but let us recognize Trump’s incremental wins. He is grinding out yards in a battle of field position. His track record of Judicial appointments is helping everywhere.

    With 4 more years, a great deal can be accomplished.

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2020/01/13/washington-post-donald-trump-transfer-7-2-billion-border-wall/

  54. Anonymous[211] • Disclaimer says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    Reluctant republicans are something like 4% of 33% of the electorate. Trump doesn’t need them.

    • Agree: Gman
  55. Anonymous[211] • Disclaimer says:
    @216

    I’d hate to be such a pessimist. None of those are going D

  56. gman says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    I actually think Biden/Buttigieg is on the less safe side of establishment picks. I think a Booker, Klobuchar, etc. are safer picks

    Also, young voters, incl. young progressives loathe Pete Buttigieg (think TYT types); with a biden/buttigieg ticket, dems would have to worry about the green party taking a few percent. Abrams might help with progressives to be honest (e.g. I could see AOC campaigning with Abrams but not Buttigieg)

    Recent Black Favorability Numbers Among Dem Black Leaners from
    https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/f29d2c36-fd27-495d-89e3-e97bc41dafd6/note/f96a8ca9-6927-4e12-9739-d551b83cca3d.pdf#page=1

    Candidate Fav/Unfav (net)
    Biden 78/11 (+67)
    Warren 58/10 (+48)
    Sanders 71/13 (+58)

    Buttigieg 30/17 (+13)
    Bloomberg 33/23 (+10)
    Yang 32/13 (+19)
    Klobuchar 25/12 (+13)
    Booker 49/12 (+37)

    And Yang (in addition to his rapidly improving favorables among Dems of all races, i.e. see latest DMR Iowa, national Monmouth polls), has recently got the endorsements from donald glover and dave chappelle so that could be a positive for blacks (particularly younger blacks)

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
  57. “We all want more, but let us recognize Trump’s incremental wins. He is grinding out yards in a battle of field position. His track record of Judicial appointments is helping everywhere.

    With 4 more years, a great deal can be accomplished.”

    Laughing. First of all there is no peace. The war has been afoot for more than forty years and my side has squandered some easy wins. Immigration being top of the list. He is building a fence not a wall.

    His graciousness after winning the election – exceeded it’s usefulness after 6 months. I voted for someone with audacity to stand and govern, instead what has been delivered haphazard, in some cases nonsense.

    I voted for a reinvestment in the US. if we are going to go bankrupt, let’s least do so spending the money, time and effort investing in the citizens of the US.

    I knew the candidate of my choice was a situational leader, and i knew that would make for some very strange, interesting and even exciting politics , , , but fruitless is hardly exciting.

    I make room for the obnoxious and noxious environment he walked into in DC. I appreciate the olive branches he has offered. And I certainly get the hyperbolic extreme partisan opposition of the press and media — perhaps, unprecedented.

    However, I am not convinced his performance has been on behalf of the US citizen, who are not within his sphere of influence. I even get he has a quirky sense of humor and h is joking a lot. And despite the revelations that what many suspected about the leadership is seen the light of day — hardly the result of astute governance, thus far. Cutting taxes, regulation all fine and dandy, but does not it get to reducing government spending . . .

    no comment on the judicial front

    My support for this executive is first and foremost on policy . . . likability, and what nots . . . are secondary. I think it’s great that so many people of faith support him — and that is not just about Israel – everyone needs a good dose of Christ.

    There are no alternatives in my view

  58. Biden/Warren ticket, but Bloomberg actually makes all the important decisions.

    Biden sells Bloomberg’s agenda to moderates and Blacks, Warren sells Bloomberg’s agenda to socialists and women.

    Just like Trump sells Adelson’s agenda to conservatives and nationalists.

    • Replies: @SFG
  59. SFG says:
    @John Gruskos

    So what is Bernie doing?

    • Replies: @John Gruskos
  60. @SFG

    Bernie provides a veneer of respectability to the Antifa scum, who in turn harass the critics of the Adelson/Bloomberg consensus.

  61. @216

    But at the same time the Democrats would retain control of the House, and win the Senate.

    Extremely unlikely. It’s even highly unlikely they’ll keep the house.

  62. @216

    The division she sews, though, comes from being a proponent of the most admirable and honest parts of the left. She’s (relatively) anti-war and pro-free speech. These are both things the American left aspires to be but is increasingly not.

  63. @gman

    It’s good to see, but they can’t possibly stand up to the monster they helped create.

    This is why successful dissidence must come from the right. The corporate neo-liberal establishment can execute anyone on the left with charges of unwokeness. Those targeted for destruction can survive, but only by utterly bending to the corporate neo-liberal establishment’s will (ie Ralph Northam).

  64. @JL

    I don’t do currency trading, but I’m positioned to benefit from a weakening.

  65. @Leopold

    In my defense, I was predicting Trump would win the nomination in 2015, months before the first caucus. My reasons were unorthodox, but empirical–he was dominating in crowd size, social media follows, and internet engagement.

    The idea that 15,000 people in some second city would show up to see him on a day’s notice but wouldn’t both voting for him in the primary a couple of months down the road struck me as absurd. And it was, yes professionals like Nate Silver kept pushing it.

  66. @EliteCommInc.

    Now I’ll really waffle like a cuck, but I’m not necessarily predicting a Trump loss. I’d put it at roughly 50/50 now. If it’s Biden vs Trump, I’d say 80/20 in Biden’s favor. Sanders is 50/50, Warren and Buttigieg both 20/80 in Trump’s favor.

Comments are closed.

Subscribe to All Audacious Epigone Comments via RSS