The following table, created from results of Democrat primary survey data in the most recent Quinnipiac poll, shows the correlation in relative support by demographic group between the top seven candidates. The demographic categories considered are political orientation (very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate/conservative), sex (men, women), race (white, black), age (18-29, 30-44, 45-64, 65+) and annual income (less than $50k, $50k-$100k, over $100k). Positive correlations indicate similar demographic support profiles, negative correlations indicate dissimilar ones:
To make the information easier to digest, here is how the rest of the field compares to each candidate, from most similar to least similar.
Pairing the top three candidates up with the one most dissimilar to him/herself for a potential full ticket, with the more popular one at the top, yields the following:
A Warren/Bloomberg ticket is implausible, but the other two are quite conceivable. Though I’m still eating Harris Crow leftovers, I’ll go ahead and audaciously predict a Biden/Yang nomination now.
On the other side of things, the most demographically similar candidates stand to gain the lion’s share from said similar candidates dropping out. The progressive cannibalization from Sanders and Warren is the most salient illustration of this. Less often discussed but potentially critical in ending the nominating process in a brokered convention instead of giving it to Biden is Bloomberg’s attempt to garner high single-digit support by buying the airwaves. If Bloomberg’s primary (heh) concern is keeping the nomination away from Warren and especially Sanders, it seems as likely to backfire as it is to succeed. The voters Bloomberg buys will mostly come at Biden’s expense.
Parenthetically, the poll also shows the percentages of likely primary/caucus voters who say they’ve made up their minds on who they are going to vote for and who say they may yet change their minds before primary/caucus day. The figures have remained remarkably steady over the last several months. In September of last year, 34% had decided and 63% remained up in the air. Today, 35% say they have decided while 63% remain up in the air. The last several months of debates and campaigning have done little more than winnow away the weakest candidates.
It remains to be seen whether or not Iowa and New Hampshire provide enough anti-Biden momentum to sink him in Nevada and South Carolina, but it’s safe to expect little change between now and the Iowa caucus in three weeks.