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This week’s COTW duo is especially self-serving. Twinkie soberly urges patience and caution:

What seems to matter more than restrictive vs. less restrictive is the time of intervention. Early intervention of preventing the obvious mass transmission events (e.g. conventions, sporting events, etc.) appear to be crucial. However, once there is significant community tranmission, “selective” measures are too little, too late.

We should, however, caution ourselves that this is all still very early in terms of gathering comprehensive data. The peaks seem to have passed in early outbreak areas (e.g. Italy, NYC, etc.), but there could still be flare-ups in other areas.

Also, China revised its death toll in Wuhan with a 50% increase.

It’s obvious China has been underreporting its numbers for several weeks–even after adding around 1,500 Wuhan coronavirus deaths to the country’s total death count, the number of confirmed cases remained unchanged. The cases had been identified from the beginning but no one noticed until the other day that thousands of them ended not in recovery but in death?

Similarly, New York City added 3,700 deaths last week. The deceased had gone uncounted as coronavirus victims at the time they died. They were never tested and now never will be, but they were reported to have had coronavirus symptoms when they expired.

These reports may well be made in good faith, but it’s not hard to see how skeptics are going to become more skeptical by a box of death certificates being discovered in the utility closet of the coroner’s office.

Out of the blue New York retroactively adds more deaths than any state other than New Jersey has tallied through the whole of the pandemic up to this point. How are we supposed to make sense of what is going on?

Attributing deaths to coronavirus when the deceased had not been tested presents all kinds of obvious problems, not least of which is that it makes standardization impossible since most jurisdictions aren’t counting deaths in this way, and there isn’t any conceivable way they could reliably do so.

This is endlessly frustrating for anyone who is trying to get a quantitative handle on what is going on. While I’m too skittish to definitively pronounce on something of this import that I may later come to regret, I will give the other COTW over to Intelligent Dasein, whose sentiments are directionally similar but notably more intense and certain than my own:

You need some kind of touchstone wherewith to disentangle the politics, incompetence, and outright lying from the reported data. The only way to do that is the total number of deaths from all causes. Nevermind the Covid-19 numbers, whether we’re speaking about virus-positive, sero-positive, deaths with, deaths from, total cases, IFR, CFR—they’re all garbage.

We can only infer how reliable the rest of the data are from the number of extra people dying. But we also have to subtract from that number the number of people whose deaths were caused by iatrogenic effects of the lockdown (e.g. suicides, elderly people being abandoned in nursing homes, people not receiving routine medical care because of coronavirus restrictions, vulnerable people being herded into crowded ERs, etc.). Once this is done, coronavirus does not seem to account for any statistically significant number of excess deaths. As Hail has written about in several recent posts, we are unable to reject the null hypothesis.

And no, this is not a success story for social distancing. The half-assed social distancing measures that we’ve adopted, which ought rather to be called Potemkin Social Distancing or Social Distancing Theater, would not have been effective enough to stop the spread of the virus if it really had a mind to spread. It is not possible to impose medical grade prophylaxis upon all of society when so many places of business still remain open, and plenty of people still have to interact.

The case numbers and death numbers will always be revised higher, never lower, because more corona means more stimulus money and more lucrative security theater for governments. But it has already become abundantly clear that this occurred only because corona miraculously cures every other disease. No one dies of anything else when corona is in town, and people who would have died anyway are especially pitiable when dying of corona.

While ID notes there have been and will continue to be deaths-with or deaths-suspected-of counted as deaths-from, there are also deaths from unrelated causes that are being reduced from widespread shelter-in-place orders. Automobile accidents, for instance. Ultimately, though, comparing total monthly deaths year-over-year is probably going to be the most convincing evidence one way or the other.

Regarding shelter-in-place, Sweden has received a lot of attention as a control country for what coronavirus will do with minimal social restrictions in place. At this point, the country is being hit harder than neighboring Norway or Finland, but not devastatingly so.

In the US, there are five states–Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota–that never issued orders for residents to stay at home. So far, these states have suffered among the least of all in the US. They are collectively pretty fat, which putatively puts them at high risk. On the other hand, they are not very densely populated. So does that mean any metro area no larger than Des Moines is ready to get back in the game? Probably not, but what do I know?

It’s hard to tell for sure, but South Dakota looks to be the closest thing we have to a Sweden. Not only have no shelter-in-place orders been issued, businesses have also been allowed to remain open.

 
• Category: Culture/Society, Ideology • Tags: Coronavirus, COTW 
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  1. China appears to have crushed the curve?

  2. If Gringos are too ill disciplined to stay at home because of muh freedoms, what makes you think they can achieve 99.999999% mask compliance and social distancing?

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    As a Gringo myself, I am so glad that there are still lots of people like me who don't have your slave mentality. I've seen "muh freedoms" used to denigrate those who point out minor unConsitutional details or those who rightly exercise the right to open carry and get people's panties in a wad.

    Your statement just takes the cake, though, assuming you are allowed to have cake. You try to insult people who balk at being told when the cannot leave their homes, with this "muh freedoms" crap. You wouldn't even know "muh freedoms", if it came up to your cell and bit you in the ass, slave boy.
    , @Audacious Epigone
    Whatever the lack of compliance rate is among gringos, it will be higher among non-gringo Americans.
  3. Here in the Netherlands, we have had approximately a 66% excess mortality rate for two/three weeks now. In the hardest hit region (the provinces of Noord-Brabant and Limburg) the excess mortality has been 100% for a couple of weeks. This while deaths from at least some other causes should be down, incl. deaths related to automobile accidents.

    Perhaps 1/4th of those excess deaths are officially declared as corona-related deaths.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    The EuroMomo figures

    http://www.euromomo.eu/outputs/zscore_country_total.html

    (you might need to go to www.euromomo.eu to get to it)

    Show excess deaths since January 2016. Generally, it's like a very bad flu season (worse than 2016-7 or 2017-8) in some countries - but most of those countries are locked down.

    Some countries (Portugal, Estonia, Austria, most of Germany, Denmark, Ireland) mortality is better than average. I assume fewer are getting flu.
  4. It’s obvious China has been lying about its numbers for several weeks–even after adding around 1,500 Wuhan coronavirus deaths to the country’s total death count, the number of confirmed cases remained unchanged.

    It’s not obvious. Sick people die at home and are not counted. During the middle of the crisis in January/February I assume overwhelmed hospitals did not test the dead. The worst hit provinces of Lombardy did not test the dead and the actual death count can only be inferred through the overall number of dead in March. Do you consider the death toll published in Italy to be lies?

    The “China is lying” narrative is heavily influenced by US spy agencies speaking through the US media, giving it the official US government imprimatur. Trump at corona press conferences is tepid or not endorsing it. Trump is not categorically anti-China, just tough on trade, and also not stupid enough to embrace the machinations of spy agencies, who last year made an institutional effort to destroy his presidency.

    • Replies: @Realist
    My comment #10 was meant for you.
    , @Audacious Epigone
    The term "lying" is loaded and it would've been more prudent to have written that the official Chinese numbers over the last few weeks were obviously inaccurate.
    , @dfordoom

    The “China is lying” narrative is heavily influenced by US spy agencies speaking through the US media, giving it the official US government imprimatur.
     
    Yep.

    To be honest I don't think any governments are actually lying about COVID-19. I suspect that there is simply no reliable data. There's data, arguably too much data. But the data has huge gaps, data from different places is collected differently and therefore there can be no valid comparisons made, much of the data may well be very shaky, the data is confusing and contradictory, much of it is subjective.

    Governments, particularly in the West, are panic-stricken and they're often making irresponsible and foolish decision based on unreliable data, but that's not the same as deliberately lying.

    There are plenty of crackpots on the internet (including crackpot scientists and doctors) making ludicrous claims based on dubious interpretations of the unreliable data, but crackpots are more likely to genuinely believe the nonsense they spout rather than actively lie.

    Even the media may not be so much lying as simply having no idea how worthless many of the figures they quote really are.

    The sources I'd be most suspicious of are American sources because in the US the issue is hopelessly politicised (because in the US everything is hopelessly politicised). But even American sources are probably mostly guilty of putting political spins on dubious data.
  5. The most reliable numbers in Europe can be found on the Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring) site, which measure excess numbers of deaths from all causes. Not all countries are in the Euromomo data base, but it shows excess mortality in countries such as Spain, Italy and England. But even in those countries, the excess mortality appears more in line with a bad flu season than a reappearance of the Plague of Justinian.

    Being told the precise number of COVID-19 deaths in the last 24 hours is borderline irresponsible and is clearly intended to frighten the pubic. I looked, for example, at the CDC site for the 2009 influenza epidemic. The CDC estimated that about 12,000 people in the U.S. died of the H1N1 influenza virus, but admitted that the number could have been as low as about 8,000 or as high as 16,000, within the 95% confidence interval. And that’s for data that the CDC has had ten years to analyze.

    Intelligent Dasein is right; there’s no reason at all to have any confidence in the numbers that are being reported. Public policy based on those numbers will be badly flawed.

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    Great source, thanks. Good to see clear confirmation that coronavirus really does appear not to be at all fatal to kids.
    , @Corvinus
    There is certainly reason to have confidence that the data is being reported by experts who know more about such matters than you or me. The fact is that Covid 19 is NOT the flu. It is at the bare minimum 7 to 10 times deadlier and 2.5 times more contagious than the seasonal flu...with no vaccine.
  6. But even in those countries, the excess mortality appears more in line with a bad flu season

    If the excess mortality during a lockdown is in line with a bad flu season, is it reasonable to assume excess mortality would be many times greater without radical mitigation?

  7. What are some good data vis or tracker sites? Anything that you guys recommend?

  8. The virus isn’t deadly for people under 65.

    Everybody under 65 must put their lives on hold to save some fat boomers who already have one foot in the grave.

    Quarantine nursing homes and nursing home staff. And let’s open everything else back up

    • Replies: @Realist

    Everybody under 65 must put their lives on hold to save some fat boomers who already have one foot in the grave.
     
    Hopefully...you don't get anywhere near that age.
    , @WorkingClass
    I agree with what you are saying. But the way you say it makes you a candidate for an atomic wedgie. You are well named. I hope we never meet.
    , @anon
    The virus isn’t deadly for people under 65.

    Unless they have certain health issues such as obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, lung problems. Those people can die. Your sweeping generalizations are long on emotion and short on facts. This makes you just part of the noise, and little more. You are not unique in this, however.

    The binary emoting of "Just the flu, bro!" vs. "We're all gonna die" has been really tedious and counterproductive. As Epigone pointed out, we cannot get good data now, partly because of emotion ruling over reason around the world.

    The empirical approach works best to solve many problems. When people reject reason in favor emotionalism they are obviously not part of any solution. Something to bear in mind going forward: a number of innumerate, emotionally incontinent people who cannot follow an elementary syllogism are worth remembering, and remembering by name. Because they have revealed their true nature.
  9. It’s obvious China has been lying about its numbers for several weeks–even after adding around 1,500 Wuhan coronavirus deaths to the country’s total death count, the number of confirmed cases remained unchanged. The cases had been identified from the beginning but no one noticed until the other day that thousands of them ended not in recovery but in death?

    Similarly, New York City added 3,700 deaths last week. The deceased had gone uncounted as coronavirus victims at the time they died. They were never tested and now never will be, but they were reported to have had coronavirus symptoms when they expired.

    It’s obvious China lied…but not NYC?

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    China's number didn't budge for a month. I doubt any of the numbers are correct and suspect all will be subject to revisions of some sort in the future, but China was especially obvious.
  10. @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    The virus isn't deadly for people under 65.

    Everybody under 65 must put their lives on hold to save some fat boomers who already have one foot in the grave.

    Quarantine nursing homes and nursing home staff. And let's open everything else back up

    Everybody under 65 must put their lives on hold to save some fat boomers who already have one foot in the grave.

    Hopefully…you don’t get anywhere near that age.

    • Replies: @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    Chicom shills are everywhere encouraging panic.

    This is a bait and switch by China... overhype the severity, through their own draconian measures, knowing western elites are weak, and then watch as the world economy crumbles.

    People over 65 should be taking precautions to every virus, fall, slip, and illness, regardless of coronavirus being around.

    Breaking news: old and unhealthy people more likely to die from things.
    , @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    At our moderator, AE

    Shouldn't horseshit like this post by Realist be banned? The guy is openly wishing death on another poster.

    , @MBlanc46
    He might not, if I get my hands on him.
  11. It’s not obvious. Sick people die at home and are not counted. During the middle of the crisis in January/February I assume overwhelmed hospitals did not test the dead. The worst hit provinces of Lombardy did not test the dead and the actual death count can only be inferred through the overall number of dead in March. Do you consider the death toll published in Italy to be lies?

    Excellent points. The author is promoting US Propaganda.

  12. I have sporadically strongly disagreed with Mr. I.D. in the past. His writings on the Kung Flu Infotainment Panic-Fest, however, have been very valuable to the cause of truth and non-hysteria. Commenter Hail, who may not post here as much as on iSteve (there’s a lot of x-over) has also done a bang-up job.

    It’s amazing that all the amateur and (unfortunately) profession armchair mathematical modelers have come to all have these predictions that don’t pay out, based around one BASIC RATIO, this rate of death for infected people, that has an uncertain numerator and an even more uncertain denominator. Yet, those who don’t buy it all are the ignorant “hoaxers”.

    The denominator, the number of people infected with the new version of Corona virus, may be estimated on the low side by an order-of-magnitude, maybe more! The numerator is based on, just as you wrote here, A.E. the word of people in the medical field who are evaluating, for the very large part, people who have multiple serious health problems. There are various incentives for the “COVID-one-niner deaths” to be goosed to the high side. The factor could be 2 or 3, and we have seen it vary widely from place to place, country to country.

    A.E. and I.D. have identified some of these factors that should make skeptics of all of us who like accurate information. I have not yet read anyone else on another factor, so I’ll call it a scoop by the Peak Stupidity blog. The question is: “Are Kung Flu death counts being goosed for insurance reasons?”.

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
  13. @Realist

    Everybody under 65 must put their lives on hold to save some fat boomers who already have one foot in the grave.
     
    Hopefully...you don't get anywhere near that age.

    Chicom shills are everywhere encouraging panic.

    This is a bait and switch by China… overhype the severity, through their own draconian measures, knowing western elites are weak, and then watch as the world economy crumbles.

    People over 65 should be taking precautions to every virus, fall, slip, and illness, regardless of coronavirus being around.

    Breaking news: old and unhealthy people more likely to die from things.

    • Agree: Sean
    • Replies: @Realist

    This is a bait and switch by China… overhype the severity, through their own draconian measures, knowing western elites are weak, and then watch as the world economy crumbles.
     
    That has crossed my mind. China sees the contingency to overstate the severity of Covid-19 and takes the opportunity to attack the US economy.
  14. Democrats try to blame Republicans but the overwhelming reality is that Democrats have spread this disease to Republicans rather than the reverse.

    Meanwhile red states keep the food supply going and feed the hateful blue areas even as disease spreads outward from the blue to the red areas.

    The data are pretty overwhelming. Of course Democrat New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts dominate in terms of cases. But in states that Trump won such as PA and Michigan, it is Philadelphia and Detroit that spread the disease.

    I think if you actually look at the data on a county level, you will see that this disease is a blue county disease in the extreme.

    Crowded living, globalism, nightlife, public transport, dirty cities, global travel, failure to follow rules — these are all the hallmarks the blue part of America that spreads this disease. I say this is as a resident of a fairly blue area. Masks are required in Maryland now. I have been to a few restaurants recently for takeout, which is still allowed. I look back into the kitchen and 0% of the kitchen staff of any restaurant is wearing masks as they prepare everyone’s takeout, while the front-facing hosts and hostesses wear masks to put on a show. Remind me again who is spreading this.

    Correlations between Clinton counties and case incidence would be incredibly strong.

    The vicious lie that Trump and his supporters are behind this is the lie that must be destroyed with data! In fact it is the blue areas bringing death and destruction to the red areas, all over America.

    When the final accounting is done, it should show that the Democratic regions inflicted this destruction on Republican regions and America as a whole. If you drill down to an individual level, and looked at who was spreading this disease — from New York subway riders to college-age partiers at Mardi Gras to international travelers, you would would have a group that is utterly dominated by Democrats.

    Conservatives must push back mightily on where blame for this disease actually lies.

    Could Trump have shut down New York, LA, Seattle and Boston back on March first? Not a chance! He couldn’t even shut them down now!

    • Thanks: Manfred Arcane
    • Replies: @Realist

    Meanwhile red states keep the food supply going and feed the hateful blue areas even as disease spreads outward from the blue to the red areas.
     
    Red states can live without the blue states...the reverse is not true.
    , @Lurking
    Give it about 6 months to settle down. Then the red areas can start raising a ruckus and demanding reparations from the blue areas for infecting them with the Corona! Will it be the hottest political issue by 2022??? Personally, I'd love to watch the GOP try to co-opt the reparations issue.
  15. @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    Chicom shills are everywhere encouraging panic.

    This is a bait and switch by China... overhype the severity, through their own draconian measures, knowing western elites are weak, and then watch as the world economy crumbles.

    People over 65 should be taking precautions to every virus, fall, slip, and illness, regardless of coronavirus being around.

    Breaking news: old and unhealthy people more likely to die from things.

    This is a bait and switch by China… overhype the severity, through their own draconian measures, knowing western elites are weak, and then watch as the world economy crumbles.

    That has crossed my mind. China sees the contingency to overstate the severity of Covid-19 and takes the opportunity to attack the US economy.

  16. In the inflation / deflation debate there is another datapoint:

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/US-Oil-Prices-Fall-To-11-Per-Barrel-In-Historic-Crash.html

    AE — You are an intellectual north star in an incredibly dim world. For the sake of your family I would urge you to follow the data on prices. They are going DOWN! Oil is the primary cost input for food, from fertilizer to plowing and planting and harvesting, to transport. It is at the cusp of single digits.

    • Replies: @res
    Thanks for the link. This 70 year price history chart (note the log y axis!) helps put this in perspective.
    https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

    One thing that is interesting is how much more the oil price has crashed than it did in late 2008 while gasoline prices have not crashed as far yet.

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=m

    One thing to remember is that this oil price crash is largely the result of a temporary glut (and lack of storage capacity). The WTI futures curve (which has not been updated yet for today, need to keep following this) indicates the future prices are not crashing in the same fashion.
    https://www.erce.energy/graph/wti-futures-curve

    P.S. If anyone heats their home with oil, the near future might be a good time to fill your tank.
    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPD2F_PRS_NUS_DPG&f=M
    , @Audacious Epigone
    I appreciate the heads-up. Trust me when I say I am following them and crude will come back up--obviously it's not staying negative for long!--and the crushing of domestic oil production is going to make consumer prices a lot more expensive in the coming months.
    , @DanHessinMD
    Oil closed at minus $40 just now.

    I want to remark on that but I can't think of anything to say.
  17. @china-russia-all-the-way

    It’s obvious China has been lying about its numbers for several weeks–even after adding around 1,500 Wuhan coronavirus deaths to the country’s total death count, the number of confirmed cases remained unchanged.
     
    It's not obvious. Sick people die at home and are not counted. During the middle of the crisis in January/February I assume overwhelmed hospitals did not test the dead. The worst hit provinces of Lombardy did not test the dead and the actual death count can only be inferred through the overall number of dead in March. Do you consider the death toll published in Italy to be lies?

    The "China is lying" narrative is heavily influenced by US spy agencies speaking through the US media, giving it the official US government imprimatur. Trump at corona press conferences is tepid or not endorsing it. Trump is not categorically anti-China, just tough on trade, and also not stupid enough to embrace the machinations of spy agencies, who last year made an institutional effort to destroy his presidency.

    My comment #10 was meant for you.

  18. @DanHessinMD
    Democrats try to blame Republicans but the overwhelming reality is that Democrats have spread this disease to Republicans rather than the reverse.

    Meanwhile red states keep the food supply going and feed the hateful blue areas even as disease spreads outward from the blue to the red areas.

    The data are pretty overwhelming. Of course Democrat New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts dominate in terms of cases. But in states that Trump won such as PA and Michigan, it is Philadelphia and Detroit that spread the disease.

    I think if you actually look at the data on a county level, you will see that this disease is a blue county disease in the extreme.

    Crowded living, globalism, nightlife, public transport, dirty cities, global travel, failure to follow rules -- these are all the hallmarks the blue part of America that spreads this disease. I say this is as a resident of a fairly blue area. Masks are required in Maryland now. I have been to a few restaurants recently for takeout, which is still allowed. I look back into the kitchen and 0% of the kitchen staff of any restaurant is wearing masks as they prepare everyone's takeout, while the front-facing hosts and hostesses wear masks to put on a show. Remind me again who is spreading this.

    Correlations between Clinton counties and case incidence would be incredibly strong.

    The vicious lie that Trump and his supporters are behind this is the lie that must be destroyed with data! In fact it is the blue areas bringing death and destruction to the red areas, all over America.

    When the final accounting is done, it should show that the Democratic regions inflicted this destruction on Republican regions and America as a whole. If you drill down to an individual level, and looked at who was spreading this disease -- from New York subway riders to college-age partiers at Mardi Gras to international travelers, you would would have a group that is utterly dominated by Democrats.

    Conservatives must push back mightily on where blame for this disease actually lies.

    Could Trump have shut down New York, LA, Seattle and Boston back on March first? Not a chance! He couldn't even shut them down now!

    Meanwhile red states keep the food supply going and feed the hateful blue areas even as disease spreads outward from the blue to the red areas.

    Red states can live without the blue states…the reverse is not true.

  19. On the other side of the border, Saskatchewan and Manitoba have peaked at 8 people hospitalised at the same time, and have 0-2 new cases a day. Agriculture, forestry, manufacturing, communications, construction, daycares (in MB with a limit of 8 kids) kept working, gatherings under 10 people are allowed. Blocking access to remote North, that is, poor and unhealthy people in reservations, seems to be the key measure to success.

    I’m in a hotspot and my family members are taking turns coughing since mid-March. This is unusual since we’ve already had our round of colds around Christmas, but no one will test us so whatever. We’re avoiding people and wearing masks outside to not spread it, whatever it is. Ontario is very undertested. It would probably look as embarrassing as the plague zone of Quebec if they did it more.

    • Replies: @DanHessinMD
    Toronto Russian --

    You can help yourself and your family very easily: Ramp up humidification at home -- especially where you and your family sleeps. Zinc and vitamin C are important also.

    In very dry air (typical indoors in winter) the mucus membrates in the respiratory tract get dried out, as is well explained in https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-virology-012420-022445 and respiratory tract cilia cannot carry out their function.

    Two generations ago, everyone knew to treat respiratory infections with humidity. If your family has covid, this may save lives!

  20. @Toronto Russian
    On the other side of the border, Saskatchewan and Manitoba have peaked at 8 people hospitalised at the same time, and have 0-2 new cases a day. Agriculture, forestry, manufacturing, communications, construction, daycares (in MB with a limit of 8 kids) kept working, gatherings under 10 people are allowed. Blocking access to remote North, that is, poor and unhealthy people in reservations, seems to be the key measure to success.

    I'm in a hotspot and my family members are taking turns coughing since mid-March. This is unusual since we've already had our round of colds around Christmas, but no one will test us so whatever. We're avoiding people and wearing masks outside to not spread it, whatever it is. Ontario is very undertested. It would probably look as embarrassing as the plague zone of Quebec if they did it more.

    Toronto Russian —

    You can help yourself and your family very easily: Ramp up humidification at home — especially where you and your family sleeps. Zinc and vitamin C are important also.

    In very dry air (typical indoors in winter) the mucus membrates in the respiratory tract get dried out, as is well explained in https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-virology-012420-022445 and respiratory tract cilia cannot carry out their function.

    Two generations ago, everyone knew to treat respiratory infections with humidity. If your family has covid, this may save lives!

    • Replies: @Toronto Russian
    Thanks. I use a humidifier in the heating season.
  21. @Realist

    Everybody under 65 must put their lives on hold to save some fat boomers who already have one foot in the grave.
     
    Hopefully...you don't get anywhere near that age.

    At our moderator, AE

    Shouldn’t horseshit like this post by Realist be banned? The guy is openly wishing death on another poster.

    • Replies: @Realist

    Shouldn’t horseshit like this post by Realist be banned? The guy is openly wishing death on another poster.
     
    Grow up pussy boy.
    , @Audacious Epigone
    He's not advocating anything illegal. Spiteful sentiment returned with spiteful sentiment isn't anything laudable, but the ban hammer is used sparingly here. The schoolmarm is more tolerant than she gets credit for!
    , @ploni almoni
    Trolls will do anything to silence truth. Not that I am wishing you drop dead or anything like that.
  22. @DanHessinMD
    In the inflation / deflation debate there is another datapoint:

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/US-Oil-Prices-Fall-To-11-Per-Barrel-In-Historic-Crash.html

    AE -- You are an intellectual north star in an incredibly dim world. For the sake of your family I would urge you to follow the data on prices. They are going DOWN! Oil is the primary cost input for food, from fertilizer to plowing and planting and harvesting, to transport. It is at the cusp of single digits.

    Thanks for the link. This 70 year price history chart (note the log y axis!) helps put this in perspective.
    https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

    One thing that is interesting is how much more the oil price has crashed than it did in late 2008 while gasoline prices have not crashed as far yet.

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=m

    One thing to remember is that this oil price crash is largely the result of a temporary glut (and lack of storage capacity). The WTI futures curve (which has not been updated yet for today, need to keep following this) indicates the future prices are not crashing in the same fashion.
    https://www.erce.energy/graph/wti-futures-curve

    P.S. If anyone heats their home with oil, the near future might be a good time to fill your tank.
    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPD2F_PRS_NUS_DPG&f=M

    • Replies: @Mr. Rational
    Definitely.  Propane, too.  Top off that tank.

    Funny thing about diesel; it's about 30¢ cheaper on my side of the "big" city than on the other side.
  23. A problem with finding evidence is that evidence is often slanted or absent. It is common for a conservative to make a statement and then provide some evidence to support it. A liberal then says the evidence is just anecdotal and demands a study be provided to support that. The problem with this is that most studies are done in an academic setting. Academia is controlled by liberals and it is unlikely they are going to do a study where there might politically incorrect results. If such a study actually is done it is also unlikely the liberal controlled mainstream media is going to publicize the results so such studies are going to be difficult for the average person to find. This makes it more difficult for those on the right to provide evidence for their beliefs.

    So anytime the liberal mainstream media says most of the experts and studies support their point of view you need to be a little bit skeptical. This is true when they are talking about the coronavirus or anything else.

    • Replies: @Justvisiting

    It is common for a conservative to make a statement and then provide some evidence to support it.
     
    I actually agreed with your statement until the CV hit.

    The conservative web sites (where I normally hang out) have gone totally rabid at this point--picking and choosing data that supports their views and attacking data that disagrees with it.

    I understand that someone who has a small business crushed by this thing cannot be expected to be the most rational person in the room, so I do have sympathy for what is happening to these folks.

    But the whining about "unconstitutional" this and "unconstitutional" that totally ignores the 1918 spanish flu which clearly established detailed law supporting local .gov control over citizens in the time of an epidemic.

    Conservatives need to get a grip and do their homework.

    As for the liberals, they ignored this thing until it was here and out of control in several big cities--now they have gotten hysterical as well.

    Everyone should start acting and thinking like adults--or be ignored by rational people.
  24. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    At our moderator, AE

    Shouldn't horseshit like this post by Realist be banned? The guy is openly wishing death on another poster.

    Shouldn’t horseshit like this post by Realist be banned? The guy is openly wishing death on another poster.

    Grow up pussy boy.

  25. These reports may well be made in good faith, but it’s not hard to see how skeptics are going to become more skeptical by a box of death certificates being discovered in the utility closet of the coroner’s office.

    Heh! A.E., even though (you may be a reader) Zerohedge’s commenting is not what it used to be, there was a good one under an article about ALLOWING people to be on the beach in Jax, Florida, like this. He compared this coming up with new COVID death certificates to finding boxes of absentee ballots that always seem to put D candidates over the edge in big cities.

    Now they can get a two-fer – another Kung Flu victim to add to the rolls to keep this hysteria going and keep the Police State in place, and have another guy who I’m sure would have voted Democrat for that single-payer health care that would have surely kept him healthy, so no point striking him off those rolls, right?

    • Replies: @A123
    The partial re-opening of Jacksonville (Duval County) beaches is apparently going well. Family groups are staying separated from each other.

    https://www.jacksonville.com/photogallery/LK/20200419/PHOTOGALLERY/419009995/PH/1

    A plane with a banner reading: “Do Your Part Stay 6 Feet Apart Help Keep Beaches Open!” shortly after the beaches opening on a limited basis during the coronavirus pandemic Friday, April 17, 2020 on Jacksonville Beach, Florida. The beaches are open from 6 a.m. to 11 a.m. and then 5 p.m. to 8 p.m. for activities such as walking, running, surfing, swimming, fishing and other activities. No sunbathing or sitting is allowed. [Will Dickey/Florida Times-Union]
     
    St. Augustine (St. John's County) is following suit.

    https://www.staugustine.com/news/20200417/st-johns-county-authorizes-partial-reopening-of-beaches

    I am not sure if this will work for more heavily populated areas.

    Also, beaches popular with Spring Breakers are likely to be the hardest to control. I don't want to say that college students break rules....

    PEACE 😷
    , @Audacious Epigone
    I've never read Zero Hedge despite having heard a lot about it. I'm perpetually backlogged in my regular reading queue and that's not a part of it. When it comes to finance and economics, I don't read anyone or anything that confirms my priors. Make of that what you will (maybe that I'm an ignoramus spouting nonsense--plenty of readers here think that is the case).
  26. I’m not that much of a raw data nerd, so I don’t have the hookup to get the primo, uncut Colombian numbers. Consequently I don’t even try. One thing I do know is the media has never gotten the numbers right, except maybe on page 33 after all the interest is gone. Swine flu, SARS 1, Zika, airborne ebola and human transmissible bird flu (neither of which actually existed), not just these but everything else, Y2k, 3 Mile Island, Chernobyl, Fukushima. Polar Bears. They never have the right numbers while it’s happening. It’s always sensational, hysterical even.

    Even when they cover mass shootings, it seems for the last several years, every time there is a lone nut mass shooting, they spend the first 36-48 hours reporting rumors of multiple shooters. They never get numbers right.

    And there are so many numbers being bandied about and skewed this way and that, everyone has the chance to cherry pick the data that supports their preconceived notions or reflects their emotional state.

    We won’t have reliable numbers until it’s over. I’m not really paying attention to numbers until it’s over. Even then, you should probably wait 6 months.

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes

    One thing I do know is the media has never gotten the numbers right, except maybe on page 33 after all the interest is gone. Swine flu, SARS 1, Zika, airborne ebola and human transmissible bird flu (neither of which actually existed), not just these but everything else, Y2k, 3 Mile Island, Chernobyl, Fukushima. Polar Bears. They never have the right numbers while it’s happening.
     
    They are not interested in being right.

    That's the error people make: they think

    "How can someone as objectively smart as Bill Kristol be so wrong about literally everything?"
     
    Simple: he's not paid to be right - he's paid to generate partisan rhetoric. At some stage in his career he either worked out, or was informed, that he could have a cushy gig spewing out pablum at an income 3σ above comparable people.

    More broadly: "if it bleeds, it leads" and other media tropes are relevant.

    Media no incentive to refuse to cry "Wolf!" when all the other children are doing so. In fact they have plenty of incentive to do join the chorus. If they twist the wrong nose, they know they will go to the back of the queue for pharma and government ad-spend.

    Informing the audience is not the primary role of journalism: the primary role of journalism is to get eyeballs to meet with ads, and to pander to important advertiser constituencies (including government).

    Frisson gets eyeballs; eyeballs determine ad-slot prices; ad-slot prices determine profitability.

    Michael Crichton nailed it when he coined the term "Gell-mann Amnesia Effect":


    “Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.

    In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.”

     

    Judith Miller and Jayson Blair are far more representative of 'journalism', than Julian Assange, Glenn Greenwald, John Pilger or Matt Taibbi. Or Mencken or I.F. Stone.
  27. @128
    If Gringos are too ill disciplined to stay at home because of muh freedoms, what makes you think they can achieve 99.999999% mask compliance and social distancing?

    As a Gringo myself, I am so glad that there are still lots of people like me who don’t have your slave mentality. I’ve seen “muh freedoms” used to denigrate those who point out minor unConsitutional details or those who rightly exercise the right to open carry and get people’s panties in a wad.

    Your statement just takes the cake, though, assuming you are allowed to have cake. You try to insult people who balk at being told when the cannot leave their homes, with this “muh freedoms” crap. You wouldn’t even know “muh freedoms”, if it came up to your cell and bit you in the ass, slave boy.

  28. @DanHessinMD
    Toronto Russian --

    You can help yourself and your family very easily: Ramp up humidification at home -- especially where you and your family sleeps. Zinc and vitamin C are important also.

    In very dry air (typical indoors in winter) the mucus membrates in the respiratory tract get dried out, as is well explained in https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-virology-012420-022445 and respiratory tract cilia cannot carry out their function.

    Two generations ago, everyone knew to treat respiratory infections with humidity. If your family has covid, this may save lives!

    Thanks. I use a humidifier in the heating season.

  29. I meant to add this in that previous comment to A.E. directly. I have been concentrating on my blog and other articles here and there, trying to argue the case against the ridiculous over-response we’ve been living with under.

    What I hope you will do is put up more posts that speculate on the financial and other medium and long-term consequences of this Infotainment Panic-Fest. I liked those ones and recall lots of good back and forth discussion. Most of the rest of the articles/posts on this whole show have been about “muh models” and such.

    • Replies: @WorkingClass
    Yup. As soon as you get out your calculator I'm gone. Crunching data is a useful skill. Crunching bullshit is a waste of time.
  30. @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    The virus isn't deadly for people under 65.

    Everybody under 65 must put their lives on hold to save some fat boomers who already have one foot in the grave.

    Quarantine nursing homes and nursing home staff. And let's open everything else back up

    I agree with what you are saying. But the way you say it makes you a candidate for an atomic wedgie. You are well named. I hope we never meet.

  31. @Achmed E. Newman
    I meant to add this in that previous comment to A.E. directly. I have been concentrating on my blog and other articles here and there, trying to argue the case against the ridiculous over-response we've been living with under.

    What I hope you will do is put up more posts that speculate on the financial and other medium and long-term consequences of this Infotainment Panic-Fest. I liked those ones and recall lots of good back and forth discussion. Most of the rest of the articles/posts on this whole show have been about "muh models" and such.

    Yup. As soon as you get out your calculator I’m gone. Crunching data is a useful skill. Crunching bullshit is a waste of time.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    Indeed. Worrying that you're spending your finite time on this earth crunching bullshit is psychologically painful.
  32. Not all countries are in the Euromomo data base, but it shows excess mortality in countries such as Spain, Italy and England. But even in those countries, the excess mortality appears more in line with a bad flu season than a reappearance of the Plague of Justinian.

    Not sure about the other countries, but recently it was said that data from Italy, general mortality from January-April in the whole of Italy was LOWER than last year. That’s right, LESS people died in the whole country than in the same period last year. However, there was an exception in the regions of Lombardy where the virus peaked and mortality there was 4 times greater than normal.

    Anyway, I think this virus is, perhaps not a hoax, but much less dangerous than it is being said, and I am also sure that the real objective was the “lockdown” and the economic pillage. The virus was just the perfect excuse.

    (Another possible theory is that this was engineered by Bill Gates, Amazon and Netflix, who seem to be the big winners with Corona – Netflix no longer has competition from movie theatres, Amazon has no competition from normal shops, and Bill Gates will sell us all a vaccine).

  33. What really worries me, though, is the crescent animosity and heated rhetoric against China by all sides, from Trump to New Zealand’s lesbian liberal prime minister, to many European politicians. It seems to indicate that the next phase in the NWO 2020 project might be war with China or at least increasing friction.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    War with China would be disastrous and tragic.

    Global divestment from China, on the other hand, needs to happen.
    , @Mr. Rational
    Oh, I wouldn't worry about that.  Nobody's going to try to invade China.  OTOH, refusing to let the Chinese buy real estate in the rest of the world or occupy all the university seats would reverse the colonization they've been doing over the last decade or two.  A renewed Chinese Exclusion Act would do the USA a lot of good... especially if India was added to it.  We need nationals from neither of them, nor do we need to let them buy up our assets.  That goes triple for Australia and NZ.
  34. Don’t look now, but WTI is trading at negative $35.00 per barrel.

    If I were being glib, I would say the terror bird is on the menu. But since I’m not being glib, I will just say that if we don’t get this lockdown lifted right away, we are in some pretty deep trouble.

    • Replies: @WorkingClass
    Don’t look now, but WTI is trading at negative $35.00 per barrel.

    I live in Texas. I know this is bad news. But it's funny too. And not that surprising in this era of anti-knowledge and negative IQ.
    , @anon
    Don’t look now, but WTI is trading at negative $35.00 per barrel.

    Because the WTI futures close tomorrow, and the traders have no way to take delivery of the physical. Therefore they are paying other people to take oil off of their hands. It is a one-day event, and likely unique even though some equity traders got scared.

    If I were being glib, I would say the terror bird is on the menu.

    Instead of that, you could consult your catechism on the topic of "pride" or "pridefulness". It would be to your benefit.
    , @Audacious Epigone
    Lots of production requires oil. In fact, almost everything does in one form or another. That oil is so cheap it literally can't be given away is an indication that global production is cratering and that economic contraction is going to be much worse than even the most pessimistic people are predicting. Meanwhile, central banks the world over are flooding the planet with cash.

    Consumer price inflation is coming in a big way.

    , @Kratoklastes
    It's futures-expiry related - May CL expired.

    The amount of oil sitting in parked tankers (and 'supertankers') is astonishing, and the resultant increase in the price of tanker space has tipped "Take delivery and park it at sea" off the table. When the short end dropped after the Russian response to Saudi attempts to jawbone oil marlets, the big guys took delivery and parked it - expecting to be able to sell it profitably when the front end of the curve whipped back up. That's always worked before.

    This is one of those expirations that gave an "easy layup" that small-fry traders get handed from time to time: at one stage the 2-year contango was crazy - almost as good a reversal signal as VIX above 55 (or below 10) in equities. (selling vol above 55 gets super-painful every now and then, but always works... buying vol below 10 never fails).

    Anyone who bought May CL yesterday would be feeling pretty good right now (I didn't).
  35. @Achmed E. Newman

    These reports may well be made in good faith, but it’s not hard to see how skeptics are going to become more skeptical by a box of death certificates being discovered in the utility closet of the coroner’s office.
     
    Heh! A.E., even though (you may be a reader) Zerohedge's commenting is not what it used to be, there was a good one under an article about ALLOWING people to be on the beach in Jax, Florida, like this. He compared this coming up with new COVID death certificates to finding boxes of absentee ballots that always seem to put D candidates over the edge in big cities.

    Now they can get a two-fer - another Kung Flu victim to add to the rolls to keep this hysteria going and keep the Police State in place, and have another guy who I'm sure would have voted Democrat for that single-payer health care that would have surely kept him healthy, so no point striking him off those rolls, right?

    The partial re-opening of Jacksonville (Duval County) beaches is apparently going well. Family groups are staying separated from each other.

    https://www.jacksonville.com/photogallery/LK/20200419/PHOTOGALLERY/419009995/PH/1

    A plane with a banner reading: “Do Your Part Stay 6 Feet Apart Help Keep Beaches Open!” shortly after the beaches opening on a limited basis during the coronavirus pandemic Friday, April 17, 2020 on Jacksonville Beach, Florida. The beaches are open from 6 a.m. to 11 a.m. and then 5 p.m. to 8 p.m. for activities such as walking, running, surfing, swimming, fishing and other activities. No sunbathing or sitting is allowed. [Will Dickey/Florida Times-Union]

    St. Augustine (St. John’s County) is following suit.

    https://www.staugustine.com/news/20200417/st-johns-county-authorizes-partial-reopening-of-beaches

    I am not sure if this will work for more heavily populated areas.

    Also, beaches popular with Spring Breakers are likely to be the hardest to control. I don’t want to say that college students break rules….

    PEACE 😷

    • Replies: @Jedi Night
    Everyone always social distances from other families on the beach anyway. Nobody ever lays their towels down within 6 feet of another group. The whole beach closure thing is a joke.

    The most obnoxiously stupid aspect of the outdoor closures is that UV radiation is quick death for viruses. Outdoors is the absolute safest place to be.
  36. @128
    If Gringos are too ill disciplined to stay at home because of muh freedoms, what makes you think they can achieve 99.999999% mask compliance and social distancing?

    Whatever the lack of compliance rate is among gringos, it will be higher among non-gringo Americans.

  37. @china-russia-all-the-way

    It’s obvious China has been lying about its numbers for several weeks–even after adding around 1,500 Wuhan coronavirus deaths to the country’s total death count, the number of confirmed cases remained unchanged.
     
    It's not obvious. Sick people die at home and are not counted. During the middle of the crisis in January/February I assume overwhelmed hospitals did not test the dead. The worst hit provinces of Lombardy did not test the dead and the actual death count can only be inferred through the overall number of dead in March. Do you consider the death toll published in Italy to be lies?

    The "China is lying" narrative is heavily influenced by US spy agencies speaking through the US media, giving it the official US government imprimatur. Trump at corona press conferences is tepid or not endorsing it. Trump is not categorically anti-China, just tough on trade, and also not stupid enough to embrace the machinations of spy agencies, who last year made an institutional effort to destroy his presidency.

    The term “lying” is loaded and it would’ve been more prudent to have written that the official Chinese numbers over the last few weeks were obviously inaccurate.

  38. @Diversity Heretic
    The most reliable numbers in Europe can be found on the Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring) site, which measure excess numbers of deaths from all causes. Not all countries are in the Euromomo data base, but it shows excess mortality in countries such as Spain, Italy and England. But even in those countries, the excess mortality appears more in line with a bad flu season than a reappearance of the Plague of Justinian.

    Being told the precise number of COVID-19 deaths in the last 24 hours is borderline irresponsible and is clearly intended to frighten the pubic. I looked, for example, at the CDC site for the 2009 influenza epidemic. The CDC estimated that about 12,000 people in the U.S. died of the H1N1 influenza virus, but admitted that the number could have been as low as about 8,000 or as high as 16,000, within the 95% confidence interval. And that's for data that the CDC has had ten years to analyze.

    Intelligent Dasein is right; there's no reason at all to have any confidence in the numbers that are being reported. Public policy based on those numbers will be badly flawed.

    Great source, thanks. Good to see clear confirmation that coronavirus really does appear not to be at all fatal to kids.

  39. @Realist

    It’s obvious China has been lying about its numbers for several weeks–even after adding around 1,500 Wuhan coronavirus deaths to the country’s total death count, the number of confirmed cases remained unchanged. The cases had been identified from the beginning but no one noticed until the other day that thousands of them ended not in recovery but in death?

    Similarly, New York City added 3,700 deaths last week. The deceased had gone uncounted as coronavirus victims at the time they died. They were never tested and now never will be, but they were reported to have had coronavirus symptoms when they expired.
     
    It's obvious China lied...but not NYC?

    China’s number didn’t budge for a month. I doubt any of the numbers are correct and suspect all will be subject to revisions of some sort in the future, but China was especially obvious.

  40. @DanHessinMD
    In the inflation / deflation debate there is another datapoint:

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/US-Oil-Prices-Fall-To-11-Per-Barrel-In-Historic-Crash.html

    AE -- You are an intellectual north star in an incredibly dim world. For the sake of your family I would urge you to follow the data on prices. They are going DOWN! Oil is the primary cost input for food, from fertilizer to plowing and planting and harvesting, to transport. It is at the cusp of single digits.

    I appreciate the heads-up. Trust me when I say I am following them and crude will come back up–obviously it’s not staying negative for long!–and the crushing of domestic oil production is going to make consumer prices a lot more expensive in the coming months.

    • Replies: @WorkingClass
    All true. But shale was doomed anyway. Like fat boomers. The so called economy was doomed anyway. The virus was just the last straw.

    Today I'm thinking about the lock down protesters or social distancing deniers if you prefer. I'm thinking the virus is radicalizing way more people than it is killing. And facebook de-platforming said protestors will help them identify their enemies.

    And while I'm here. Please keep up the good work.
  41. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    At our moderator, AE

    Shouldn't horseshit like this post by Realist be banned? The guy is openly wishing death on another poster.

    He’s not advocating anything illegal. Spiteful sentiment returned with spiteful sentiment isn’t anything laudable, but the ban hammer is used sparingly here. The schoolmarm is more tolerant than she gets credit for!

    • Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    Fair enough.
    , @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    Really, you consider this "spiteful sentiment"?

    I consider it spiteful of the Boomers to shut down the entire economy so that they can live forever "o they think".
  42. @Intelligent Dasein
    Don't look now, but WTI is trading at negative $35.00 per barrel.

    If I were being glib, I would say the terror bird is on the menu. But since I'm not being glib, I will just say that if we don't get this lockdown lifted right away, we are in some pretty deep trouble.

    Don’t look now, but WTI is trading at negative $35.00 per barrel.

    I live in Texas. I know this is bad news. But it’s funny too. And not that surprising in this era of anti-knowledge and negative IQ.

    • Replies: @A123
    Do not let the current number concern you too much. It is an artificial result of rules on the finance side:

    -- Trading volume is low. Therefore, volatility is high.
    -- Financial firms that cannot accept delivery must close out futures contracts.
    -- Margin calls are forcing additional selling.

    PEACE 😷
  43. anon[209] • Disclaimer says:
    @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    The virus isn't deadly for people under 65.

    Everybody under 65 must put their lives on hold to save some fat boomers who already have one foot in the grave.

    Quarantine nursing homes and nursing home staff. And let's open everything else back up

    The virus isn’t deadly for people under 65.

    Unless they have certain health issues such as obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, lung problems. Those people can die. Your sweeping generalizations are long on emotion and short on facts. This makes you just part of the noise, and little more. You are not unique in this, however.

    The binary emoting of “Just the flu, bro!” vs. “We’re all gonna die” has been really tedious and counterproductive. As Epigone pointed out, we cannot get good data now, partly because of emotion ruling over reason around the world.

    The empirical approach works best to solve many problems. When people reject reason in favor emotionalism they are obviously not part of any solution. Something to bear in mind going forward: a number of innumerate, emotionally incontinent people who cannot follow an elementary syllogism are worth remembering, and remembering by name. Because they have revealed their true nature.

    • Replies: @dfordoom

    The binary emoting of “Just the flu, bro!” vs. “We’re all gonna die” has been really tedious and counterproductive.
     
    Agreed.

    But every issue these days is treated the same way. Especially on UR.
  44. Nobody knows anything, and the highly credentialed experts know even less.

  45. anon[209] • Disclaimer says:
    @Intelligent Dasein
    Don't look now, but WTI is trading at negative $35.00 per barrel.

    If I were being glib, I would say the terror bird is on the menu. But since I'm not being glib, I will just say that if we don't get this lockdown lifted right away, we are in some pretty deep trouble.

    Don’t look now, but WTI is trading at negative $35.00 per barrel.

    Because the WTI futures close tomorrow, and the traders have no way to take delivery of the physical. Therefore they are paying other people to take oil off of their hands. It is a one-day event, and likely unique even though some equity traders got scared.

    If I were being glib, I would say the terror bird is on the menu.

    Instead of that, you could consult your catechism on the topic of “pride” or “pridefulness”. It would be to your benefit.

  46. @DanHessinMD
    In the inflation / deflation debate there is another datapoint:

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/US-Oil-Prices-Fall-To-11-Per-Barrel-In-Historic-Crash.html

    AE -- You are an intellectual north star in an incredibly dim world. For the sake of your family I would urge you to follow the data on prices. They are going DOWN! Oil is the primary cost input for food, from fertilizer to plowing and planting and harvesting, to transport. It is at the cusp of single digits.

    Oil closed at minus $40 just now.

    I want to remark on that but I can’t think of anything to say.

  47. @WorkingClass
    Don’t look now, but WTI is trading at negative $35.00 per barrel.

    I live in Texas. I know this is bad news. But it's funny too. And not that surprising in this era of anti-knowledge and negative IQ.

    Do not let the current number concern you too much. It is an artificial result of rules on the finance side:

    — Trading volume is low. Therefore, volatility is high.
    — Financial firms that cannot accept delivery must close out futures contracts.
    — Margin calls are forcing additional selling.

    PEACE 😷

  48. @Audacious Epigone
    I appreciate the heads-up. Trust me when I say I am following them and crude will come back up--obviously it's not staying negative for long!--and the crushing of domestic oil production is going to make consumer prices a lot more expensive in the coming months.

    All true. But shale was doomed anyway. Like fat boomers. The so called economy was doomed anyway. The virus was just the last straw.

    Today I’m thinking about the lock down protesters or social distancing deniers if you prefer. I’m thinking the virus is radicalizing way more people than it is killing. And facebook de-platforming said protestors will help them identify their enemies.

    And while I’m here. Please keep up the good work.

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @A123

    ... shale was doomed anyway. Like fat boomers. The so called economy was doomed anyway. The virus was just the last straw.
     
    Over leveraged, poorly run companies die. There were a bunch of those in the “shale rush” that went under. However, in much of the U.S. the business proposition is sound.

    Look at the graph below. With highest possible labor cost and highest possible equipment rental fees, break-even ~$40/bbl were common. With skilled labor and equipment available at a much lower expense rate, break-even is now ~$30/bbl.
    .
    https://images2.imgbox.com/50/26/Ie7Lt9Ak_o.jpg
    .

    The current situation is largely a “mistake” by all parties.

    Sides were ramping up production to push each other for share % and then the pandemic caused a surprise demand drop. The Saudi economy cannot tolerate $20 oil for very long. They are chewing up investment principal at an alarming rate. No oil producing nation wants oil a $20/bbl or less. The price will go up as demand recovers.

    Some of the highest cost operations to the right of the chart will close if the “new normal” is in the $40-45/bbl range. Eyeballing the chart, (adjusting for lower current labor and equipment expenditures) probably 75% or so of production will be sound “at the wellhead”.
    ______

    Natural Gas is a very different industry from Oil. It will be a decade until pipeline capacity catches up to the need. Until then, new gas production will be very constrained.

    PEACE 😷
  49. @WorkingClass
    All true. But shale was doomed anyway. Like fat boomers. The so called economy was doomed anyway. The virus was just the last straw.

    Today I'm thinking about the lock down protesters or social distancing deniers if you prefer. I'm thinking the virus is radicalizing way more people than it is killing. And facebook de-platforming said protestors will help them identify their enemies.

    And while I'm here. Please keep up the good work.

    … shale was doomed anyway. Like fat boomers. The so called economy was doomed anyway. The virus was just the last straw.

    Over leveraged, poorly run companies die. There were a bunch of those in the “shale rush” that went under. However, in much of the U.S. the business proposition is sound.

    Look at the graph below. With highest possible labor cost and highest possible equipment rental fees, break-even ~$40/bbl were common. With skilled labor and equipment available at a much lower expense rate, break-even is now ~$30/bbl.
    .

    .

    The current situation is largely a “mistake” by all parties.

    Sides were ramping up production to push each other for share % and then the pandemic caused a surprise demand drop. The Saudi economy cannot tolerate $20 oil for very long. They are chewing up investment principal at an alarming rate. No oil producing nation wants oil a $20/bbl or less. The price will go up as demand recovers.

    Some of the highest cost operations to the right of the chart will close if the “new normal” is in the $40-45/bbl range. Eyeballing the chart, (adjusting for lower current labor and equipment expenditures) probably 75% or so of production will be sound “at the wellhead”.
    ______

    Natural Gas is a very different industry from Oil. It will be a decade until pipeline capacity catches up to the need. Until then, new gas production will be very constrained.

    PEACE 😷

    • Replies: @WorkingClass
    "The shale industry faces an uncertain future as drillers try to outrun the treadmill of precipitous well declines."

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Shale-Boom-Is-About-To-Go-Bust.html

    You seem to be up on all things oil. What is your take on this?

    PEACE
  50. @A123

    ... shale was doomed anyway. Like fat boomers. The so called economy was doomed anyway. The virus was just the last straw.
     
    Over leveraged, poorly run companies die. There were a bunch of those in the “shale rush” that went under. However, in much of the U.S. the business proposition is sound.

    Look at the graph below. With highest possible labor cost and highest possible equipment rental fees, break-even ~$40/bbl were common. With skilled labor and equipment available at a much lower expense rate, break-even is now ~$30/bbl.
    .
    https://images2.imgbox.com/50/26/Ie7Lt9Ak_o.jpg
    .

    The current situation is largely a “mistake” by all parties.

    Sides were ramping up production to push each other for share % and then the pandemic caused a surprise demand drop. The Saudi economy cannot tolerate $20 oil for very long. They are chewing up investment principal at an alarming rate. No oil producing nation wants oil a $20/bbl or less. The price will go up as demand recovers.

    Some of the highest cost operations to the right of the chart will close if the “new normal” is in the $40-45/bbl range. Eyeballing the chart, (adjusting for lower current labor and equipment expenditures) probably 75% or so of production will be sound “at the wellhead”.
    ______

    Natural Gas is a very different industry from Oil. It will be a decade until pipeline capacity catches up to the need. Until then, new gas production will be very constrained.

    PEACE 😷

    “The shale industry faces an uncertain future as drillers try to outrun the treadmill of precipitous well declines.”

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Shale-Boom-Is-About-To-Go-Bust.html

    You seem to be up on all things oil. What is your take on this?

    PEACE

    • Replies: @A123

    “The shale industry faces an uncertain future as drillers try to outrun the treadmill of precipitous well declines.”

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Shale-Boom-Is-About-To-Go-Bust.html

    You seem to be up on all things oil. What is your take on this?
     
    I don't know that I am up on all things oil, but Thanks.

    It is a rather poor headline & summary for an article that makes valid points on specific errors. For example:

    Last year, major shale gas driller EQT drilled a lateral that exceeded 18,000 feet. The company boasted that it would continue to ratchet up the length to as long as 20,000 feet. But EQT quickly found out that it had problems when it exceeded 15,000 feet. “The decision to drill some of the longest horizontal wells ever in shale rocks turned into a costly misstep costing hundreds of millions of dollars,”
     
    Poorly managed companies that make risky decisions will fail.

    That is entirely consistent with the estimate that I provided.... if the “new normal” is in the $40-45/bbl range. ... 75% or so of production will be sound “at the wellhead”.

    If 75% is sound, then 25% is marginal or unsound. Companies relying on that 25% are in a great deal of trouble. However, the bankruptcy of those firms should not be mis-labelled with the term "Bust".

    PEACE 😷
  51. @WorkingClass
    "The shale industry faces an uncertain future as drillers try to outrun the treadmill of precipitous well declines."

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Shale-Boom-Is-About-To-Go-Bust.html

    You seem to be up on all things oil. What is your take on this?

    PEACE

    “The shale industry faces an uncertain future as drillers try to outrun the treadmill of precipitous well declines.”

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Shale-Boom-Is-About-To-Go-Bust.html

    You seem to be up on all things oil. What is your take on this?

    I don’t know that I am up on all things oil, but Thanks.

    It is a rather poor headline & summary for an article that makes valid points on specific errors. For example:

    Last year, major shale gas driller EQT drilled a lateral that exceeded 18,000 feet. The company boasted that it would continue to ratchet up the length to as long as 20,000 feet. But EQT quickly found out that it had problems when it exceeded 15,000 feet. “The decision to drill some of the longest horizontal wells ever in shale rocks turned into a costly misstep costing hundreds of millions of dollars,”

    Poorly managed companies that make risky decisions will fail.

    That is entirely consistent with the estimate that I provided…. if the “new normal” is in the $40-45/bbl range. … 75% or so of production will be sound “at the wellhead”.

    If 75% is sound, then 25% is marginal or unsound. Companies relying on that 25% are in a great deal of trouble. However, the bankruptcy of those firms should not be mis-labelled with the term “Bust”.

    PEACE 😷

    • Replies: @WorkingClass
    If 75% is sound, then 25% is marginal or unsound.

    Thank you. I could be missing something but I think you are still talking about price. I am asking about "treadmill of precipitous well declines.” Or are you saying that only 25% of operators need be concerned about precipitous well declines?

    I did some court house work for a group of land men and their pet geologist over in Louisiana. That's as close as I ever got to the oil business. All I know is what I read on the internet and what I have been reading is that shale operators have a problem with short lived wells. What say Ye?

    I have business elsewhere so if I am slow it's not because I'm not interested in your response.

    Thanks again.
  52. @Audacious Epigone
    He's not advocating anything illegal. Spiteful sentiment returned with spiteful sentiment isn't anything laudable, but the ban hammer is used sparingly here. The schoolmarm is more tolerant than she gets credit for!

    Fair enough.

  53. @Audacious Epigone
    He's not advocating anything illegal. Spiteful sentiment returned with spiteful sentiment isn't anything laudable, but the ban hammer is used sparingly here. The schoolmarm is more tolerant than she gets credit for!

    Really, you consider this “spiteful sentiment”?

    I consider it spiteful of the Boomers to shut down the entire economy so that they can live forever “o they think”.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    Boomers are between 56 and 74 years old. Does a 60 yo really have one foot in the grave?
    , @MBlanc46
    We didn’t shut it down, you ninny. It was shut down by a lot of pols, mostly rather younger than the oldest of us.
    , @Realist

    Really, you consider this “spiteful sentiment”?
     
    Yes, dumbass I do.

    The fact that we have any economy at all is do to boomers and pre boomers.

    , @dfordoom

    I consider it spiteful of the Boomers to shut down the entire economy so that they can live forever “o they think”.
     
    Boomers did not shut down the economy. Panic-stricken incompetent governments shut down the economy. I'm a Boomer and I don't want the economy shut down.

    Seeing things in generational terms is simplistic, childish and counter-productive.
  54. @A123

    “The shale industry faces an uncertain future as drillers try to outrun the treadmill of precipitous well declines.”

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Shale-Boom-Is-About-To-Go-Bust.html

    You seem to be up on all things oil. What is your take on this?
     
    I don't know that I am up on all things oil, but Thanks.

    It is a rather poor headline & summary for an article that makes valid points on specific errors. For example:

    Last year, major shale gas driller EQT drilled a lateral that exceeded 18,000 feet. The company boasted that it would continue to ratchet up the length to as long as 20,000 feet. But EQT quickly found out that it had problems when it exceeded 15,000 feet. “The decision to drill some of the longest horizontal wells ever in shale rocks turned into a costly misstep costing hundreds of millions of dollars,”
     
    Poorly managed companies that make risky decisions will fail.

    That is entirely consistent with the estimate that I provided.... if the “new normal” is in the $40-45/bbl range. ... 75% or so of production will be sound “at the wellhead”.

    If 75% is sound, then 25% is marginal or unsound. Companies relying on that 25% are in a great deal of trouble. However, the bankruptcy of those firms should not be mis-labelled with the term "Bust".

    PEACE 😷

    If 75% is sound, then 25% is marginal or unsound.

    Thank you. I could be missing something but I think you are still talking about price. I am asking about “treadmill of precipitous well declines.” Or are you saying that only 25% of operators need be concerned about precipitous well declines?

    I did some court house work for a group of land men and their pet geologist over in Louisiana. That’s as close as I ever got to the oil business. All I know is what I read on the internet and what I have been reading is that shale operators have a problem with short lived wells. What say Ye?

    I have business elsewhere so if I am slow it’s not because I’m not interested in your response.

    Thanks again.

    • Replies: @A123
    Yes. Price is in the news, and that is what I was talking about. Higher prices will keep more plays (leased areas with multiple wells) above break-even and therefore in operation. The Saudis cannot afford to keep oil under $40-45/bbl for any length of time, so that is my preferred guess for the new "normal" range.

    If the new "normal" is $30-35/bbl, every producing region will lose in the short run. U.S. production will drop much more that the 75%/25% case. However, the Shale Oil will stay in the shale and remain available when prices improve.

    The biggest risk to Shale Oil is rapid improvement in Tar Sand extraction. For example: (1)

    It is demonstrated that bitumen can be separated from “water-wet” Alberta oil sands and “oil-wet” Utah oil sands using a so-called analogue ionic liquid (IL) based on deep eutectic mixtures of choline chloride and urea (ChCl/U) together with a diluent such as naphtha. Unlike conventional ILs, these eutectics are relatively cheap and environmentally friendly.
     
    This type of technique has not made from the lab into the field, but the research continues.
    ______

    Individual well runoff is a complex question. I have related background, but I am not currently in the fracking industry. The biggest issue that I have observed is confusing Shale Gas and Shale Oil. The names are similar, but that is about it.

    -- For Natural Gas, essentially all fracked wells have rapid runoff. Getting 80% of the NG within the first 2-3 years is common. This is expected and factored into competently written business plans.

    -- For Oil, each well should last considerably longer but there is still run-off. Year 2 will be less than Year 1. There are cases where an operator, picks the wrong technique for the geology or, makes a mistake during the fracking process. At that point, an oil well can run-off quickly.

    The article implies that the most aggressive operators were counting on technology continuing to rapidly improve yields. The plateau in the learning curve is going to create its own set of casualties.

    PEACE 😷
    _______

    (1) From 2015 -- https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291166454_Extraction_of_Bitumen_from_Oil_Sands_Using_Deep_Eutectic_Ionic_Liquid_Analogues
  55. My reply to res from another thread concerning the prevalence of non-specific immunity to coronavirus:

    Hey res,

    This thread is getting old by now; I’m sure we’ll pick this up again in a newer thread.

    I don’t really have any data at the moment. I’m just inferring from what seems apparent. I would guess that the number of exposed true seronegatives is one Pareto greater than exposed true seropositives. Ergo, if 6% of the population is seropositive, an additional 24% have been exposed and are seronegative.

    • Replies: @res
    I haven't heard the phrase "one Pareto greater" before. That's an interesting way to put it. I assume you are referring to the 80/20 rule ratio.

    That is a big difference with important implications for trying to estimate whether herd immunity has been achieved. I have not seen any attempt to quantify these things in other cases (anyone?).

    In some cases, antibody production does not imply immunity:
    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-the-tipping-point/

    But could one make an argument that someone who has been exposed and recovered without producing antibodies is likely to do the same on later exposure?

    One thing that the COVID-19 debacle has really driven home to me is just how much of our "understanding" of the seasonal flu and epidemic disease in general is powered by guesswork and crude estimates.
  56. @Achmed E. Newman

    These reports may well be made in good faith, but it’s not hard to see how skeptics are going to become more skeptical by a box of death certificates being discovered in the utility closet of the coroner’s office.
     
    Heh! A.E., even though (you may be a reader) Zerohedge's commenting is not what it used to be, there was a good one under an article about ALLOWING people to be on the beach in Jax, Florida, like this. He compared this coming up with new COVID death certificates to finding boxes of absentee ballots that always seem to put D candidates over the edge in big cities.

    Now they can get a two-fer - another Kung Flu victim to add to the rolls to keep this hysteria going and keep the Police State in place, and have another guy who I'm sure would have voted Democrat for that single-payer health care that would have surely kept him healthy, so no point striking him off those rolls, right?

    I’ve never read Zero Hedge despite having heard a lot about it. I’m perpetually backlogged in my regular reading queue and that’s not a part of it. When it comes to finance and economics, I don’t read anyone or anything that confirms my priors. Make of that what you will (maybe that I’m an ignoramus spouting nonsense–plenty of readers here think that is the case).

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    It's not the same site as it was in '11-14 when I read it a whole lot, anyway. Right now, the site is mostly political rather than about global finance and pretty sensational at that. It will also take down a hotel lobby computer, it's so loaded up with ad scripts and the like. It used to have some of the most humorous informed commenters, but that's not what it used to be either. You're not missing much now.
  57. @WorkingClass
    Yup. As soon as you get out your calculator I'm gone. Crunching data is a useful skill. Crunching bullshit is a waste of time.

    Indeed. Worrying that you’re spending your finite time on this earth crunching bullshit is psychologically painful.

  58. @Dumbo
    What really worries me, though, is the crescent animosity and heated rhetoric against China by all sides, from Trump to New Zealand's lesbian liberal prime minister, to many European politicians. It seems to indicate that the next phase in the NWO 2020 project might be war with China or at least increasing friction.

    War with China would be disastrous and tragic.

    Global divestment from China, on the other hand, needs to happen.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
    I completely agree: as Twinkie once commented, a lot of high-up private sector individuals with political heft did pseudo-treasonous things with China back in the 1990s when they were busy hollowing out the American economy, things that would deeply shock the American public. But undoing the damage caused by the last quarter century would take a degree of political foresight, skill, patience, planning ability and willpower that I deem beyond Donald Trump or Joe Biden.

    One other thing to note is that on manufacturing, China has been "China-ed" in many ways: it has its own Rust Belt in centered up in the northeastern part of the country, around Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces. A lot of the old factory jobs are now in Vietnam or Indonesia, two countries that have a "complicated" history with China themselves. But the Chinese government has responded to this with the sort of infrastructure investment that I've commented on here-nuclear plants, high-tech research centers, high-speed rail, etc. Whatever you think about the PRC, it can't be denied that this approach was far wiser than the one we took a few decades ago: the sheer fragility of the American socioeconomic structure is being put on full display by the pandemic.

    Put simply, I'm not going to blame the Chinese for fighting for their side and taking advantage of easy pickings: I would do nothing different if I was in their shoes. American sellouts are a different story, be they baizuo or MBAs.

  59. @Intelligent Dasein
    Don't look now, but WTI is trading at negative $35.00 per barrel.

    If I were being glib, I would say the terror bird is on the menu. But since I'm not being glib, I will just say that if we don't get this lockdown lifted right away, we are in some pretty deep trouble.

    Lots of production requires oil. In fact, almost everything does in one form or another. That oil is so cheap it literally can’t be given away is an indication that global production is cratering and that economic contraction is going to be much worse than even the most pessimistic people are predicting. Meanwhile, central banks the world over are flooding the planet with cash.

    Consumer price inflation is coming in a big way.

    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
    American usage has fallen from 22mbpd to 14 in one month. We still use 50% of the gasoline and 30% of the jet fuel we used to.

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_wpsup_k_w.htm

    So we solved climate change.

  60. @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    Really, you consider this "spiteful sentiment"?

    I consider it spiteful of the Boomers to shut down the entire economy so that they can live forever "o they think".

    Boomers are between 56 and 74 years old. Does a 60 yo really have one foot in the grave?

    • Replies: @Mark G.

    Boomers are between 56 and 74 years old. Does a 60 yo really have one foot in the grave?

     

    I'm a 60 year old. I think of myself as having only one toe in the grave.
  61. @Audacious Epigone
    War with China would be disastrous and tragic.

    Global divestment from China, on the other hand, needs to happen.

    I completely agree: as Twinkie once commented, a lot of high-up private sector individuals with political heft did pseudo-treasonous things with China back in the 1990s when they were busy hollowing out the American economy, things that would deeply shock the American public. But undoing the damage caused by the last quarter century would take a degree of political foresight, skill, patience, planning ability and willpower that I deem beyond Donald Trump or Joe Biden.

    One other thing to note is that on manufacturing, China has been “China-ed” in many ways: it has its own Rust Belt in centered up in the northeastern part of the country, around Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces. A lot of the old factory jobs are now in Vietnam or Indonesia, two countries that have a “complicated” history with China themselves. But the Chinese government has responded to this with the sort of infrastructure investment that I’ve commented on here-nuclear plants, high-tech research centers, high-speed rail, etc. Whatever you think about the PRC, it can’t be denied that this approach was far wiser than the one we took a few decades ago: the sheer fragility of the American socioeconomic structure is being put on full display by the pandemic.

    Put simply, I’m not going to blame the Chinese for fighting for their side and taking advantage of easy pickings: I would do nothing different if I was in their shoes. American sellouts are a different story, be they baizuo or MBAs.

  62. @Intelligent Dasein
    My reply to res from another thread concerning the prevalence of non-specific immunity to coronavirus:

    Hey res,

    This thread is getting old by now; I’m sure we’ll pick this up again in a newer thread.

    I don’t really have any data at the moment. I’m just inferring from what seems apparent. I would guess that the number of exposed true seronegatives is one Pareto greater than exposed true seropositives. Ergo, if 6% of the population is seropositive, an additional 24% have been exposed and are seronegative.
     

    I haven’t heard the phrase “one Pareto greater” before. That’s an interesting way to put it. I assume you are referring to the 80/20 rule ratio.

    That is a big difference with important implications for trying to estimate whether herd immunity has been achieved. I have not seen any attempt to quantify these things in other cases (anyone?).

    In some cases, antibody production does not imply immunity:
    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-the-tipping-point/

    But could one make an argument that someone who has been exposed and recovered without producing antibodies is likely to do the same on later exposure?

    One thing that the COVID-19 debacle has really driven home to me is just how much of our “understanding” of the seasonal flu and epidemic disease in general is powered by guesswork and crude estimates.

    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein

    I haven’t heard the phrase “one Pareto greater” before. That’s an interesting way to put it. I assume you are referring to the 80/20 rule ratio.
     
    Yes, indeed.

    One thing that the COVID-19 debacle has really driven home to me is just how much of our “understanding” of the seasonal flu and epidemic disease in general is powered by guesswork and crude estimates.
     
    Heartily agree.
  63. @WorkingClass
    If 75% is sound, then 25% is marginal or unsound.

    Thank you. I could be missing something but I think you are still talking about price. I am asking about "treadmill of precipitous well declines.” Or are you saying that only 25% of operators need be concerned about precipitous well declines?

    I did some court house work for a group of land men and their pet geologist over in Louisiana. That's as close as I ever got to the oil business. All I know is what I read on the internet and what I have been reading is that shale operators have a problem with short lived wells. What say Ye?

    I have business elsewhere so if I am slow it's not because I'm not interested in your response.

    Thanks again.

    Yes. Price is in the news, and that is what I was talking about. Higher prices will keep more plays (leased areas with multiple wells) above break-even and therefore in operation. The Saudis cannot afford to keep oil under $40-45/bbl for any length of time, so that is my preferred guess for the new “normal” range.

    If the new “normal” is $30-35/bbl, every producing region will lose in the short run. U.S. production will drop much more that the 75%/25% case. However, the Shale Oil will stay in the shale and remain available when prices improve.

    The biggest risk to Shale Oil is rapid improvement in Tar Sand extraction. For example: (1)

    It is demonstrated that bitumen can be separated from “water-wet” Alberta oil sands and “oil-wet” Utah oil sands using a so-called analogue ionic liquid (IL) based on deep eutectic mixtures of choline chloride and urea (ChCl/U) together with a diluent such as naphtha. Unlike conventional ILs, these eutectics are relatively cheap and environmentally friendly.

    This type of technique has not made from the lab into the field, but the research continues.
    ______

    Individual well runoff is a complex question. I have related background, but I am not currently in the fracking industry. The biggest issue that I have observed is confusing Shale Gas and Shale Oil. The names are similar, but that is about it.

    — For Natural Gas, essentially all fracked wells have rapid runoff. Getting 80% of the NG within the first 2-3 years is common. This is expected and factored into competently written business plans.

    — For Oil, each well should last considerably longer but there is still run-off. Year 2 will be less than Year 1. There are cases where an operator, picks the wrong technique for the geology or, makes a mistake during the fracking process. At that point, an oil well can run-off quickly.

    The article implies that the most aggressive operators were counting on technology continuing to rapidly improve yields. The plateau in the learning curve is going to create its own set of casualties.

    PEACE 😷
    _______

    (1) From 2015 — https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291166454_Extraction_of_Bitumen_from_Oil_Sands_Using_Deep_Eutectic_Ionic_Liquid_Analogues

    • Replies: @WorkingClass
    Thanks 123. You have been very helpful.
  64. @A123
    The partial re-opening of Jacksonville (Duval County) beaches is apparently going well. Family groups are staying separated from each other.

    https://www.jacksonville.com/photogallery/LK/20200419/PHOTOGALLERY/419009995/PH/1

    A plane with a banner reading: “Do Your Part Stay 6 Feet Apart Help Keep Beaches Open!” shortly after the beaches opening on a limited basis during the coronavirus pandemic Friday, April 17, 2020 on Jacksonville Beach, Florida. The beaches are open from 6 a.m. to 11 a.m. and then 5 p.m. to 8 p.m. for activities such as walking, running, surfing, swimming, fishing and other activities. No sunbathing or sitting is allowed. [Will Dickey/Florida Times-Union]
     
    St. Augustine (St. John's County) is following suit.

    https://www.staugustine.com/news/20200417/st-johns-county-authorizes-partial-reopening-of-beaches

    I am not sure if this will work for more heavily populated areas.

    Also, beaches popular with Spring Breakers are likely to be the hardest to control. I don't want to say that college students break rules....

    PEACE 😷

    Everyone always social distances from other families on the beach anyway. Nobody ever lays their towels down within 6 feet of another group. The whole beach closure thing is a joke.

    The most obnoxiously stupid aspect of the outdoor closures is that UV radiation is quick death for viruses. Outdoors is the absolute safest place to be.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
  65. There is relatively good data and it comes from the Cruise ships. There everyone was tested. It shows around 20 % infection rate of all passengers/crew and 2 – 2,5 % death rate (% dead from all infected).

    Sweden has something called volunary lockdown – that is – people stay at home on their own will. 50 + people gatherings are also banned.

    Still it has 5 times bigger death rate per population than Norway and 9 times bigger death rate per population than Finland.

  66. @Realist

    Everybody under 65 must put their lives on hold to save some fat boomers who already have one foot in the grave.
     
    Hopefully...you don't get anywhere near that age.

    He might not, if I get my hands on him.

  67. “Imputation of missing data” is a competence many, even the hoi polloi, are coming to appreciate. Of course, the problem is that it is only recently that the principled application the power of Moore’s Law to the imputation of missing data has started to be recognized by the machine learning community, let alone the moribund intellects of the social sciences — a half century after the principle was understood in the published literature.

    The proximate cause of humanity’s suffering is such stupidity.

    The ultimate cause of humanity’s suffering is the cause of such stupidity: the misapplication of intelligence toward making other people stupid so as to gain a power advantage. This, for example, is what the social pseudoscientists have been doing with their abuse of Moore’s Law via inadequate information criteria such as AIC, BIC, and mealy-mouthed versions of MDL and MML, rather than strict algorithmic information (the Turing-complete version of MDL). But, hey, whatever gets a prof laid by a midwit coed, eh?

  68. @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    Really, you consider this "spiteful sentiment"?

    I consider it spiteful of the Boomers to shut down the entire economy so that they can live forever "o they think".

    We didn’t shut it down, you ninny. It was shut down by a lot of pols, mostly rather younger than the oldest of us.

  69. @Audacious Epigone
    I've never read Zero Hedge despite having heard a lot about it. I'm perpetually backlogged in my regular reading queue and that's not a part of it. When it comes to finance and economics, I don't read anyone or anything that confirms my priors. Make of that what you will (maybe that I'm an ignoramus spouting nonsense--plenty of readers here think that is the case).

    It’s not the same site as it was in ’11-14 when I read it a whole lot, anyway. Right now, the site is mostly political rather than about global finance and pretty sensational at that. It will also take down a hotel lobby computer, it’s so loaded up with ad scripts and the like. It used to have some of the most humorous informed commenters, but that’s not what it used to be either. You’re not missing much now.

  70. @res
    I haven't heard the phrase "one Pareto greater" before. That's an interesting way to put it. I assume you are referring to the 80/20 rule ratio.

    That is a big difference with important implications for trying to estimate whether herd immunity has been achieved. I have not seen any attempt to quantify these things in other cases (anyone?).

    In some cases, antibody production does not imply immunity:
    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-the-tipping-point/

    But could one make an argument that someone who has been exposed and recovered without producing antibodies is likely to do the same on later exposure?

    One thing that the COVID-19 debacle has really driven home to me is just how much of our "understanding" of the seasonal flu and epidemic disease in general is powered by guesswork and crude estimates.

    I haven’t heard the phrase “one Pareto greater” before. That’s an interesting way to put it. I assume you are referring to the 80/20 rule ratio.

    Yes, indeed.

    One thing that the COVID-19 debacle has really driven home to me is just how much of our “understanding” of the seasonal flu and epidemic disease in general is powered by guesswork and crude estimates.

    Heartily agree.

    • Agree: Johnny Rico
    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
    The medical/scientific/University/hospital complex marketed themselves as having knowledge and understanding of things far beyond reality because they can do heart transplants and created Viagra.

    This distracted the world from the reality that cures for cancer, the common cold, and baldness are still largely beyond reach...but always "just around the corner."

    The last big advance advance in technology was the smartphone in 2007. Is anybody still pushing for robot cars anymore?

    It turns out medical sciences' numbers data on COVID-19 are orders of magnitude BETTER than any seasonal flu.

    So if when comparing it is largely comparing decent guesswork to worse guesswork.

    It amazes me how many questions about the virus and its spread that both professionals and the public understood to be crucial in answering in order to deal best with the crisis 30 days ago are still unanswered and yet these mysteries are now ignored or obscured. Like the efficacies of different types of masks or contact/droplet/aerosol or viral load.

    When numbers for certain or most seasonal flus are given as 30-60,000 or 18-26 million it is pretty obvious nobody was really doing any comprehensive testing and hospital clerical and administrative types were just checking any box with no worries about follow-up or investigations.

    Making models and estimates using previous bouts of wild speculation and guesswork.

    The decision to lockdown was made with very little data or knowledge. Now the powers that be say we need or know certain things to safely reopen. Yet there is no effort or plan to ascertain these things.

    A certain percentage of around 25% of people tested test positive. New cases are a simple function of how many people are tested. With at most 0.3% of the population tested on any day at usually closer to 0.1%, we can only theorize on the rate of spread or how many people have had it.

    Logic and practicality necessitate that we open up some places and states to see what happens.
  71. @DanHessinMD
    Democrats try to blame Republicans but the overwhelming reality is that Democrats have spread this disease to Republicans rather than the reverse.

    Meanwhile red states keep the food supply going and feed the hateful blue areas even as disease spreads outward from the blue to the red areas.

    The data are pretty overwhelming. Of course Democrat New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts dominate in terms of cases. But in states that Trump won such as PA and Michigan, it is Philadelphia and Detroit that spread the disease.

    I think if you actually look at the data on a county level, you will see that this disease is a blue county disease in the extreme.

    Crowded living, globalism, nightlife, public transport, dirty cities, global travel, failure to follow rules -- these are all the hallmarks the blue part of America that spreads this disease. I say this is as a resident of a fairly blue area. Masks are required in Maryland now. I have been to a few restaurants recently for takeout, which is still allowed. I look back into the kitchen and 0% of the kitchen staff of any restaurant is wearing masks as they prepare everyone's takeout, while the front-facing hosts and hostesses wear masks to put on a show. Remind me again who is spreading this.

    Correlations between Clinton counties and case incidence would be incredibly strong.

    The vicious lie that Trump and his supporters are behind this is the lie that must be destroyed with data! In fact it is the blue areas bringing death and destruction to the red areas, all over America.

    When the final accounting is done, it should show that the Democratic regions inflicted this destruction on Republican regions and America as a whole. If you drill down to an individual level, and looked at who was spreading this disease -- from New York subway riders to college-age partiers at Mardi Gras to international travelers, you would would have a group that is utterly dominated by Democrats.

    Conservatives must push back mightily on where blame for this disease actually lies.

    Could Trump have shut down New York, LA, Seattle and Boston back on March first? Not a chance! He couldn't even shut them down now!

    Give it about 6 months to settle down. Then the red areas can start raising a ruckus and demanding reparations from the blue areas for infecting them with the Corona! Will it be the hottest political issue by 2022??? Personally, I’d love to watch the GOP try to co-opt the reparations issue.

  72. The peaks seem to have passed in early outbreak areas (e.g. Italy, NYC, etc.), but there could still be flare-ups in other areas.

    The COTW response to to this (The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown) comes at roughly ten minutes into this, but the whole interview is an interesting take from Professor Johan Giesecke:

    More about him here: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/strategic-and-technical-advisory-group-for-infectious-hazards/members/biographies/en/index2.html

  73. @Ashwin
    Here in the Netherlands, we have had approximately a 66% excess mortality rate for two/three weeks now. In the hardest hit region (the provinces of Noord-Brabant and Limburg) the excess mortality has been 100% for a couple of weeks. This while deaths from at least some other causes should be down, incl. deaths related to automobile accidents.

    Perhaps 1/4th of those excess deaths are officially declared as corona-related deaths.

    The EuroMomo figures

    http://www.euromomo.eu/outputs/zscore_country_total.html

    (you might need to go to http://www.euromomo.eu to get to it)

    Show excess deaths since January 2016. Generally, it’s like a very bad flu season (worse than 2016-7 or 2017-8) in some countries – but most of those countries are locked down.

    Some countries (Portugal, Estonia, Austria, most of Germany, Denmark, Ireland) mortality is better than average. I assume fewer are getting flu.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    Beware of those graphs - they've scrunched up the SD lines for hard-hit places like Italy and Spain. A cursory glance could give the impression that Sweden and Spain were similarly affected.

    The shape's the same for Sweden, but that peaks at 8 SD, whereas the graphs for England, Spain, Italy go way beyond 8 SD and the graphs have been compressed to get the deviation in.
  74. @YetAnotherAnon
    The EuroMomo figures

    http://www.euromomo.eu/outputs/zscore_country_total.html

    (you might need to go to www.euromomo.eu to get to it)

    Show excess deaths since January 2016. Generally, it's like a very bad flu season (worse than 2016-7 or 2017-8) in some countries - but most of those countries are locked down.

    Some countries (Portugal, Estonia, Austria, most of Germany, Denmark, Ireland) mortality is better than average. I assume fewer are getting flu.

    Beware of those graphs – they’ve scrunched up the SD lines for hard-hit places like Italy and Spain. A cursory glance could give the impression that Sweden and Spain were similarly affected.

    The shape’s the same for Sweden, but that peaks at 8 SD, whereas the graphs for England, Spain, Italy go way beyond 8 SD and the graphs have been compressed to get the deviation in.

  75. @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    Really, you consider this "spiteful sentiment"?

    I consider it spiteful of the Boomers to shut down the entire economy so that they can live forever "o they think".

    Really, you consider this “spiteful sentiment”?

    Yes, dumbass I do.

    The fact that we have any economy at all is do to boomers and pre boomers.

  76. @Audacious Epigone
    Boomers are between 56 and 74 years old. Does a 60 yo really have one foot in the grave?

    Boomers are between 56 and 74 years old. Does a 60 yo really have one foot in the grave?

    I’m a 60 year old. I think of myself as having only one toe in the grave.

  77. @A123
    Yes. Price is in the news, and that is what I was talking about. Higher prices will keep more plays (leased areas with multiple wells) above break-even and therefore in operation. The Saudis cannot afford to keep oil under $40-45/bbl for any length of time, so that is my preferred guess for the new "normal" range.

    If the new "normal" is $30-35/bbl, every producing region will lose in the short run. U.S. production will drop much more that the 75%/25% case. However, the Shale Oil will stay in the shale and remain available when prices improve.

    The biggest risk to Shale Oil is rapid improvement in Tar Sand extraction. For example: (1)

    It is demonstrated that bitumen can be separated from “water-wet” Alberta oil sands and “oil-wet” Utah oil sands using a so-called analogue ionic liquid (IL) based on deep eutectic mixtures of choline chloride and urea (ChCl/U) together with a diluent such as naphtha. Unlike conventional ILs, these eutectics are relatively cheap and environmentally friendly.
     
    This type of technique has not made from the lab into the field, but the research continues.
    ______

    Individual well runoff is a complex question. I have related background, but I am not currently in the fracking industry. The biggest issue that I have observed is confusing Shale Gas and Shale Oil. The names are similar, but that is about it.

    -- For Natural Gas, essentially all fracked wells have rapid runoff. Getting 80% of the NG within the first 2-3 years is common. This is expected and factored into competently written business plans.

    -- For Oil, each well should last considerably longer but there is still run-off. Year 2 will be less than Year 1. There are cases where an operator, picks the wrong technique for the geology or, makes a mistake during the fracking process. At that point, an oil well can run-off quickly.

    The article implies that the most aggressive operators were counting on technology continuing to rapidly improve yields. The plateau in the learning curve is going to create its own set of casualties.

    PEACE 😷
    _______

    (1) From 2015 -- https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291166454_Extraction_of_Bitumen_from_Oil_Sands_Using_Deep_Eutectic_Ionic_Liquid_Analogues

    Thanks 123. You have been very helpful.

    • Thanks: A123
    • Replies: @A123
    Here is a more current break-even graphic for U.S. oil fields:

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1252591987250864128?s=20

    PEACE 😷
  78. @WorkingClass
    Thanks 123. You have been very helpful.

    Here is a more current break-even graphic for U.S. oil fields:

    PEACE 😷

  79. In the US, there are five states–Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota–that never issued orders for residents to stay at home. So far, these states have suffered among the least of all in the US.

    This is misleading. Despite no formal stay at home orders, the cities are closed down by the mayors. They are effectively living the same as anyone else in the country.

  80. @Intelligent Dasein
    Don't look now, but WTI is trading at negative $35.00 per barrel.

    If I were being glib, I would say the terror bird is on the menu. But since I'm not being glib, I will just say that if we don't get this lockdown lifted right away, we are in some pretty deep trouble.

    It’s futures-expiry related – May CL expired.

    The amount of oil sitting in parked tankers (and ‘supertankers’) is astonishing, and the resultant increase in the price of tanker space has tipped “Take delivery and park it at sea” off the table. When the short end dropped after the Russian response to Saudi attempts to jawbone oil marlets, the big guys took delivery and parked it – expecting to be able to sell it profitably when the front end of the curve whipped back up. That’s always worked before.

    This is one of those expirations that gave an “easy layup” that small-fry traders get handed from time to time: at one stage the 2-year contango was crazy – almost as good a reversal signal as VIX above 55 (or below 10) in equities. (selling vol above 55 gets super-painful every now and then, but always works… buying vol below 10 never fails).

    Anyone who bought May CL yesterday would be feeling pretty good right now (I didn’t).

  81. @Lars Porsena
    I'm not that much of a raw data nerd, so I don't have the hookup to get the primo, uncut Colombian numbers. Consequently I don't even try. One thing I do know is the media has never gotten the numbers right, except maybe on page 33 after all the interest is gone. Swine flu, SARS 1, Zika, airborne ebola and human transmissible bird flu (neither of which actually existed), not just these but everything else, Y2k, 3 Mile Island, Chernobyl, Fukushima. Polar Bears. They never have the right numbers while it's happening. It's always sensational, hysterical even.

    Even when they cover mass shootings, it seems for the last several years, every time there is a lone nut mass shooting, they spend the first 36-48 hours reporting rumors of multiple shooters. They never get numbers right.

    And there are so many numbers being bandied about and skewed this way and that, everyone has the chance to cherry pick the data that supports their preconceived notions or reflects their emotional state.

    We won't have reliable numbers until it's over. I'm not really paying attention to numbers until it's over. Even then, you should probably wait 6 months.

    One thing I do know is the media has never gotten the numbers right, except maybe on page 33 after all the interest is gone. Swine flu, SARS 1, Zika, airborne ebola and human transmissible bird flu (neither of which actually existed), not just these but everything else, Y2k, 3 Mile Island, Chernobyl, Fukushima. Polar Bears. They never have the right numbers while it’s happening.

    They are not interested in being right.

    That’s the error people make: they think

    How can someone as objectively smart as Bill Kristol be so wrong about literally everything?”

    Simple: he’s not paid to be right – he’s paid to generate partisan rhetoric. At some stage in his career he either worked out, or was informed, that he could have a cushy gig spewing out pablum at an income 3σ above comparable people.

    More broadly: “if it bleeds, it leads” and other media tropes are relevant.

    Media no incentive to refuse to cry “Wolf!” when all the other children are doing so. In fact they have plenty of incentive to do join the chorus. If they twist the wrong nose, they know they will go to the back of the queue for pharma and government ad-spend.

    Informing the audience is not the primary role of journalism: the primary role of journalism is to get eyeballs to meet with ads, and to pander to important advertiser constituencies (including government).

    Frisson gets eyeballs; eyeballs determine ad-slot prices; ad-slot prices determine profitability.

    Michael Crichton nailed it when he coined the term “Gell-mann Amnesia Effect”:

    “Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.

    In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.”

    Judith Miller and Jayson Blair are far more representative of ‘journalism’, than Julian Assange, Glenn Greenwald, John Pilger or Matt Taibbi. Or Mencken or I.F. Stone.

  82. @Intelligent Dasein

    I haven’t heard the phrase “one Pareto greater” before. That’s an interesting way to put it. I assume you are referring to the 80/20 rule ratio.
     
    Yes, indeed.

    One thing that the COVID-19 debacle has really driven home to me is just how much of our “understanding” of the seasonal flu and epidemic disease in general is powered by guesswork and crude estimates.
     
    Heartily agree.

    The medical/scientific/University/hospital complex marketed themselves as having knowledge and understanding of things far beyond reality because they can do heart transplants and created Viagra.

    This distracted the world from the reality that cures for cancer, the common cold, and baldness are still largely beyond reach…but always “just around the corner.”

    The last big advance advance in technology was the smartphone in 2007. Is anybody still pushing for robot cars anymore?

    It turns out medical sciences’ numbers data on COVID-19 are orders of magnitude BETTER than any seasonal flu.

    So if when comparing it is largely comparing decent guesswork to worse guesswork.

    It amazes me how many questions about the virus and its spread that both professionals and the public understood to be crucial in answering in order to deal best with the crisis 30 days ago are still unanswered and yet these mysteries are now ignored or obscured. Like the efficacies of different types of masks or contact/droplet/aerosol or viral load.

    When numbers for certain or most seasonal flus are given as 30-60,000 or 18-26 million it is pretty obvious nobody was really doing any comprehensive testing and hospital clerical and administrative types were just checking any box with no worries about follow-up or investigations.

    Making models and estimates using previous bouts of wild speculation and guesswork.

    The decision to lockdown was made with very little data or knowledge. Now the powers that be say we need or know certain things to safely reopen. Yet there is no effort or plan to ascertain these things.

    A certain percentage of around 25% of people tested test positive. New cases are a simple function of how many people are tested. With at most 0.3% of the population tested on any day at usually closer to 0.1%, we can only theorize on the rate of spread or how many people have had it.

    Logic and practicality necessitate that we open up some places and states to see what happens.

  83. @Audacious Epigone
    Lots of production requires oil. In fact, almost everything does in one form or another. That oil is so cheap it literally can't be given away is an indication that global production is cratering and that economic contraction is going to be much worse than even the most pessimistic people are predicting. Meanwhile, central banks the world over are flooding the planet with cash.

    Consumer price inflation is coming in a big way.

    American usage has fallen from 22mbpd to 14 in one month. We still use 50% of the gasoline and 30% of the jet fuel we used to.

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_wpsup_k_w.htm

    So we solved climate change.

    • Replies: @Mr. Rational

    So we solved climate change.
     
    No we didn't.  Solving it requires OTOO -300 million barrels per day CO2equiv for a period of decades.
  84. @Mark G.
    A problem with finding evidence is that evidence is often slanted or absent. It is common for a conservative to make a statement and then provide some evidence to support it. A liberal then says the evidence is just anecdotal and demands a study be provided to support that. The problem with this is that most studies are done in an academic setting. Academia is controlled by liberals and it is unlikely they are going to do a study where there might politically incorrect results. If such a study actually is done it is also unlikely the liberal controlled mainstream media is going to publicize the results so such studies are going to be difficult for the average person to find. This makes it more difficult for those on the right to provide evidence for their beliefs.

    So anytime the liberal mainstream media says most of the experts and studies support their point of view you need to be a little bit skeptical. This is true when they are talking about the coronavirus or anything else.

    It is common for a conservative to make a statement and then provide some evidence to support it.

    I actually agreed with your statement until the CV hit.

    The conservative web sites (where I normally hang out) have gone totally rabid at this point–picking and choosing data that supports their views and attacking data that disagrees with it.

    I understand that someone who has a small business crushed by this thing cannot be expected to be the most rational person in the room, so I do have sympathy for what is happening to these folks.

    But the whining about “unconstitutional” this and “unconstitutional” that totally ignores the 1918 spanish flu which clearly established detailed law supporting local .gov control over citizens in the time of an epidemic.

    Conservatives need to get a grip and do their homework.

    As for the liberals, they ignored this thing until it was here and out of control in several big cities–now they have gotten hysterical as well.

    Everyone should start acting and thinking like adults–or be ignored by rational people.

  85. @china-russia-all-the-way

    It’s obvious China has been lying about its numbers for several weeks–even after adding around 1,500 Wuhan coronavirus deaths to the country’s total death count, the number of confirmed cases remained unchanged.
     
    It's not obvious. Sick people die at home and are not counted. During the middle of the crisis in January/February I assume overwhelmed hospitals did not test the dead. The worst hit provinces of Lombardy did not test the dead and the actual death count can only be inferred through the overall number of dead in March. Do you consider the death toll published in Italy to be lies?

    The "China is lying" narrative is heavily influenced by US spy agencies speaking through the US media, giving it the official US government imprimatur. Trump at corona press conferences is tepid or not endorsing it. Trump is not categorically anti-China, just tough on trade, and also not stupid enough to embrace the machinations of spy agencies, who last year made an institutional effort to destroy his presidency.

    The “China is lying” narrative is heavily influenced by US spy agencies speaking through the US media, giving it the official US government imprimatur.

    Yep.

    To be honest I don’t think any governments are actually lying about COVID-19. I suspect that there is simply no reliable data. There’s data, arguably too much data. But the data has huge gaps, data from different places is collected differently and therefore there can be no valid comparisons made, much of the data may well be very shaky, the data is confusing and contradictory, much of it is subjective.

    Governments, particularly in the West, are panic-stricken and they’re often making irresponsible and foolish decision based on unreliable data, but that’s not the same as deliberately lying.

    There are plenty of crackpots on the internet (including crackpot scientists and doctors) making ludicrous claims based on dubious interpretations of the unreliable data, but crackpots are more likely to genuinely believe the nonsense they spout rather than actively lie.

    Even the media may not be so much lying as simply having no idea how worthless many of the figures they quote really are.

    The sources I’d be most suspicious of are American sources because in the US the issue is hopelessly politicised (because in the US everything is hopelessly politicised). But even American sources are probably mostly guilty of putting political spins on dubious data.

  86. @anon
    The virus isn’t deadly for people under 65.

    Unless they have certain health issues such as obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, lung problems. Those people can die. Your sweeping generalizations are long on emotion and short on facts. This makes you just part of the noise, and little more. You are not unique in this, however.

    The binary emoting of "Just the flu, bro!" vs. "We're all gonna die" has been really tedious and counterproductive. As Epigone pointed out, we cannot get good data now, partly because of emotion ruling over reason around the world.

    The empirical approach works best to solve many problems. When people reject reason in favor emotionalism they are obviously not part of any solution. Something to bear in mind going forward: a number of innumerate, emotionally incontinent people who cannot follow an elementary syllogism are worth remembering, and remembering by name. Because they have revealed their true nature.

    The binary emoting of “Just the flu, bro!” vs. “We’re all gonna die” has been really tedious and counterproductive.

    Agreed.

    But every issue these days is treated the same way. Especially on UR.

  87. @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    Really, you consider this "spiteful sentiment"?

    I consider it spiteful of the Boomers to shut down the entire economy so that they can live forever "o they think".

    I consider it spiteful of the Boomers to shut down the entire economy so that they can live forever “o they think”.

    Boomers did not shut down the economy. Panic-stricken incompetent governments shut down the economy. I’m a Boomer and I don’t want the economy shut down.

    Seeing things in generational terms is simplistic, childish and counter-productive.

  88. @res
    Thanks for the link. This 70 year price history chart (note the log y axis!) helps put this in perspective.
    https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

    One thing that is interesting is how much more the oil price has crashed than it did in late 2008 while gasoline prices have not crashed as far yet.

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=m

    One thing to remember is that this oil price crash is largely the result of a temporary glut (and lack of storage capacity). The WTI futures curve (which has not been updated yet for today, need to keep following this) indicates the future prices are not crashing in the same fashion.
    https://www.erce.energy/graph/wti-futures-curve

    P.S. If anyone heats their home with oil, the near future might be a good time to fill your tank.
    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPD2F_PRS_NUS_DPG&f=M

    Definitely.  Propane, too.  Top off that tank.

    Funny thing about diesel; it’s about 30¢ cheaper on my side of the “big” city than on the other side.

  89. @Dumbo
    What really worries me, though, is the crescent animosity and heated rhetoric against China by all sides, from Trump to New Zealand's lesbian liberal prime minister, to many European politicians. It seems to indicate that the next phase in the NWO 2020 project might be war with China or at least increasing friction.

    Oh, I wouldn’t worry about that.  Nobody’s going to try to invade China.  OTOH, refusing to let the Chinese buy real estate in the rest of the world or occupy all the university seats would reverse the colonization they’ve been doing over the last decade or two.  A renewed Chinese Exclusion Act would do the USA a lot of good… especially if India was added to it.  We need nationals from neither of them, nor do we need to let them buy up our assets.  That goes triple for Australia and NZ.

  90. @Johnny Rico
    American usage has fallen from 22mbpd to 14 in one month. We still use 50% of the gasoline and 30% of the jet fuel we used to.

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_wpsup_k_w.htm

    So we solved climate change.

    So we solved climate change.

    No we didn’t.  Solving it requires OTOO -300 million barrels per day CO2equiv for a period of decades.

    • Thanks: Johnny Rico
    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
    I was kidding.
  91. @Mr. Rational

    So we solved climate change.
     
    No we didn't.  Solving it requires OTOO -300 million barrels per day CO2equiv for a period of decades.

    I was kidding.

  92. Clerks this morning not wearing gloves or masks for the first time in a month or so.

  93. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    At our moderator, AE

    Shouldn't horseshit like this post by Realist be banned? The guy is openly wishing death on another poster.

    Trolls will do anything to silence truth. Not that I am wishing you drop dead or anything like that.

  94. @Diversity Heretic
    The most reliable numbers in Europe can be found on the Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring) site, which measure excess numbers of deaths from all causes. Not all countries are in the Euromomo data base, but it shows excess mortality in countries such as Spain, Italy and England. But even in those countries, the excess mortality appears more in line with a bad flu season than a reappearance of the Plague of Justinian.

    Being told the precise number of COVID-19 deaths in the last 24 hours is borderline irresponsible and is clearly intended to frighten the pubic. I looked, for example, at the CDC site for the 2009 influenza epidemic. The CDC estimated that about 12,000 people in the U.S. died of the H1N1 influenza virus, but admitted that the number could have been as low as about 8,000 or as high as 16,000, within the 95% confidence interval. And that's for data that the CDC has had ten years to analyze.

    Intelligent Dasein is right; there's no reason at all to have any confidence in the numbers that are being reported. Public policy based on those numbers will be badly flawed.

    There is certainly reason to have confidence that the data is being reported by experts who know more about such matters than you or me. The fact is that Covid 19 is NOT the flu. It is at the bare minimum 7 to 10 times deadlier and 2.5 times more contagious than the seasonal flu…with no vaccine.

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