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Consumer prices beat consensus estimates for the fifth consecutive month. Again, we're told it's transitory. It was another bad month of weather for the harvests just like it's another bad month for the cost of cars. Even if the annualized rate falls back from 6% to 2%--which it won't--it wouldn't be transitory. Transitory requires the... Read More
Dfordoom wants to abolish the intelligence agencies: They do a lot of bad things, like violate civil liberties, assassinate foreigners, frame citizens, and lie countries civilization-destroying wars. On the other hand, they're woke. You're not a white supremacist, a sexist, a nativist, a homophobe, an anti-Semite, and an ableist are you? Then you'll stand in... Read More
Search interest in the term "inflation" is so far 50% higher this May than it has been in any other month since Google began tracking query data nearly two decades ago: Nothing to see here. It hasn't anything to do with ordinary people seeing consumer prices going up in their everyday lives, no siree!
Rather than asserting that without slavery the United States would not have become as wealthy and technologically advanced as it is today, it seems the opposite is true--without ending slavery, the United States would not have ever become as wealthy and technologically advanced as it is today. And the perverse incentives and retarding aspects of... Read More
The Ron Paul moment may not have passed. Perhaps after lying dormant for a decade it is poised to return with a vengeance: Or perhaps having non-Democrats split and most of the left arrayed in opposition is too hostile an environment for the moment's renaissance. If it's not an idea whose time has yet come,... Read More
Wency on how below replacement fertility, Woke Capital, and high anxiety are just some of the blessings modern status striving has given us: Caspar von Everec offers speculation as to why foreign policy doesn't have the domestic purchase it used to have: Americans nowadays simply don’t care about foreign policy that much. That was a... Read More
If you have not yet reached forty years of age, you had not until this last month experienced the rate of consumer price increases Americans experienced in April. We have to journey all the way back to 1981 for that. How, with the labor force participation rate so low and so many jobs unfilled, can... Read More
Personal income in the US grew over 20% from February to March. March of 2021, the last month for which full data are available, was the most lucrative month in American history in terms of personal income--by a long shot! Not at all unrelatedly, March also set a new all time record trade deficit. The... Read More
Wency shares his impressions of aspiring members of the managerial class: My experience with actual top corporate leadership has been limited outside of extremely formal contexts, but I went to a reasonably elite MBA school, and most of my classmates went on to corporate work. None are CEOs of Fortune 500 companies yet (I follow... Read More
In the process of sleuthing through political campaign donations by industry to show how absurd the idea that Republicans are the party of Corporate America is, we stumble across an interesting albeit small industrial category: "Pro-Israel". Given the pro-Palestinian sentiments among many rank-and-file Democrat voters, the influence of Christian Zionism among rank-and-file Republicans, president Trump's... Read More
Like everything else in modern America, the Covid poke or parry is highly partisan: If there is a Covid kill switch, too many deplorables are going to escape it. If refusing to take the jab is playing Russian roulette with one's health, too many deplorables are going to... die? That doesn't sound like an outcome... Read More
Big business and the culture wars, a marriage made in heaven: Forget Democratic Socialism, the arc of history bends towards Woke Capitalism:
The latest expiration date for the national eviction moratorium, set by the CDC (!) is July 1. Over the last six months, an average of 5.9% of renters have failed to make rent. Over the same six month period one year ago, 4.0% failed to do so. That's a nearly 50% increase in payment delinquencies... Read More
All the corporatocracy had to do to neutralize the Occupy Wall Street movement was signal support for Wokeism. We'll cheer on transgender athletes and BIPOC Ivy League graduates, you let us grind the working and middle classes into the dirt while enacting the largest upward transfers of wealth in the history of the world. Deal?... Read More
Twinkie on health care: That sounds a lot like auto insurance. If companies provided auto insurance and in turn auto insurance covered oil changes and tire rotations, it'd be a lot more expensive, too. What about the relatively novel subscription model? It has exploded from nothing to hundreds of primary care facilities in the span... Read More
If it is necessary to calibrate the climate, calibrating it through technology rather than by Luddism is the preferable way to go about it: On the other hand, Bill Gates is critical of cryptocurrencies. Energy is a big cost to the blockchain: If the sun provides less light, electricity will have to provide more! Elon... Read More
Percentages professing support for maximum pro-choice permisiveness, defined as making it legal for a woman to have an abortion "for any reason", by social class: GSS variables used: ABANY, CLASS, YEAR(2008-2018)
Wency shares an interesting observation: Belief or lack thereof in God strongly correlates with belief or lack thereof in the sanctity of the unborn: This provides a pretense to dig a little deeper into the GSS to shed some light on an admittedly mostly academic question. Pro-choice percentages, defined as agreeing that a woman should... Read More
It's easier to eat a bowl of M&Ms than a bowl of broccoli, easier to watch TV than hit the gym, easier to fap to a screen than find a mate who knows what you mean. But from pressure comes power, from stress comes strength. Nothing happens to any man that he is not fitted... Read More
Conservatism is liberalism's shadow, part XXVIII: There is a lot of talk about how the socially conservative, economically leftist quadrant of the political compass is drastically underserved (while the socially liberal, economically 'conservative' is full of corporately-funded chiefs who don't have any indians). Maybe, but one thing that becomes apparent when sifting through social survey... Read More
Almost Missouri on the beta testing of the corporatist neo-liberal establishment that was the Trump presidency: The State of the Union will be a heavily militarized event. Trump was mocked for wanting a military parade through the capital during his term; now Joe Biden is getting a permanent one. The left used to recoil in... Read More
In a week we will have confirmation that January 2021 was the best month for American incomes in history, surpassing the old record set in April of 2020 at the epidemiological nadir and economic zenith of the Covid crisis. This miraculous feat will occur in spite of record trade deficits and weekly jobless claims being... Read More
If the UR commentariat thinks it's a bridge too far, dfordoom suspects the prospects elsewhere are grim: AaronB on how the elite uses the archetypal racist white prole in their morality play: It is the elites that are playing divide and conquer. They are trying to get you to focus on race and not on... Read More
There is a substantial amount of pushback against hiking the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour and some resistance to student debt loan forgiveness, but the rest of the wish list is electoral catnip: Remember, Mitch McConnell lost the GOP the Senate by refusing to sign onto the promised $2000 $1400 stimulus premium Trump... Read More
Arclight on how it is mourning in America: The wheels are coming off of the international credit system. The crash is going to be spectacular. Assuming some semblance of elective government remains in place, it's better not to be behind the wheel when it happens. Almost Missouri offers a somber postmortem on the Trump presidency:... Read More
As the saying goes, nothing is more permanent than a temporary government program. Support for extending the pause on federal student loan payments is broad and overwhelming. With the 13% of "not sure" responses excluded: For those with federal student loan debt there's a good chance forgiveness is coming. Risk tolerance will vary, but the... Read More
Everything the neo-liberal establishment doesn't like is "white supremacy". Kind of funny how the actual supremacists have weaponized accusations of white supremacy as a way to roll roughshod over any threat to their power, but it's effective so they do: This unprecedented mania, the ultimate in blow off tops, is a Trump residual, you see:... Read More
You're a hedge fund client. That means there's a good chance you make the rules or own those who do. Among those rules are those about Covid--the restrictions, the severity, who is impacted, how long the disruptions will last, how long the fear will linger--not because you know the specifics from the beginning, but because... Read More
Christopher Chantrill on a member of the Establishment who tried, and tried, and tried again--in vain--to tell that Establishment it was steering the ship of state into an iceberg: He gave them an answer predating Andrew Yang by over a decade. Instead of following his advice and instituting a UBI, they're going to raise the... Read More
Almost Missouri views localism and agorism as dead ends: Several states tried this in 1861. It turned out the the President did indeed have that power, that power and more, so much more, never mind it wasn’t in the Constitution. A couple of generations ago a few school districts tried to go their own way,... Read More
Other companies will stop spreading money around to politicians of either party: It's hard to have any hope for the Republican party, but if any can be had it is this. Despite the Democrat party having vastly outraised the GOP in corporate donations since 2004, the hapless GOP continues to allow itself to be portrayed... Read More
The year has brought breathtaking inflation as the term is traditionally defined--an increase in the money supply--with price increases flood into all kinds of asset classes. The only thing holding back mass evictions from occurring across the country is government legislation and the expectation of more transfer payments in the near future, yet residential real... Read More
If interest rates go up, the markets will crash in a way that makes 2008 look like foreplay. The Fed gently tried to tighten up in late 2018 and it sent the market off a cliff. But the international credit system needs to perpetually add to the world's ever-increasing levels of debt to fuel the... Read More
Unfortunately the latest iteration of the World Values Survey does not include responses to this question from either India or China, but it does sample 48 countries. Hong Kong and Taiwan are among them. They presumably shed some light on how the Han feel about open borders. They're opposed. The following table shows the percentages... Read More
With the House passing the first ever bill to decriminalize marijuana usage at the federal level, it's worth noting how overwhelming public support for legalization is: The graph depicts net support, measured by subtracting the percentages opposed to legalization from the percentages in favor of it. Any of the bars could hypothetically be negative, but... Read More
Rosie on the populist $100 bill lying on the sidewalk: That's being charitable to the donor plutocracy. Wokeism is a bastardized form of social progressivism and corporatist easy money crony capitalism is a bastardized version of fiscal conservatism. The voters don't even get a clean version of what they don't want. What's one benjamin when... Read More
Most Americans do not see a federal mandate to wear masks as a violation of their civil liberties: The American Civil Liberties Union presumably sides with that majority. The right to fresh air is not a right at all, and it has nothing to do with personal liberty. Recirculated carbon dioxide is perfectly functional, thank... Read More
Twinkie on how an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure: When they've secured the high ground and the longbow, an uphill charge by the flower of the American deplorability isn't enough to win the day no matter how heroic the charge. Nebulafox on how populist American nationalism will progress one funeral at... Read More
Granting for sake of argument that we need "to get the virus under control", she's not wrong: If a lockdown is mandated, it needs to be accompanied by a UBI. It's cruel to deprive people of a source income by government dictate without making up the difference in aid. The US effectively had a means-tested... Read More
Janet Yellen is being floated as one of the top two potential Treasury Secretary nominations in a Biden administration. Recall she was Obama's Fed chair. She would be only the second person in American history to have held both positions. The other person to do it was William Miller of the Carter administration, one of... Read More
And it's a good thing they don't, else we wouldn't be in the midst of a V-shaped recovery: It's a good thing the government spending $9.5 billion a day, or $400 million an hour, or $6.5 million a minute, or over $100,000 a second beyond what it vacuums up in taxes doesn't matter, because if... Read More
- There is no reason for Donald Trump to concede. The next presidential swearing in is over two months away. They've spent the better part of four years contesting the 2016 election on flimsier evidence than what has materialized over the last few days. We can spend four weeks ensuring election integrity. - Another indication... Read More
Net responses to the question of whether the family's financial situation has gotten better or gotten worse over the last year, by state: Trump will win all of the net better and net no change states, but he'll need to win several net worse states as well to be reelected. That's tough. The campaign strategy... Read More
Charles Pewitt on how by playing with the dollar, the powers that be are playing with fire: The TreasureFed knows there is no way out the way it came in. The only option is forward. The official inflation target has been calibrated upwards, the pretense of even considering tightening over the next several years is... Read More
Tens of millions of lost jobs, the largest trade deficits in history, the sharpest GDP decline in modern American history--and yet business applications are booming. The figures are staggering: Nationwide, business applications are up over 82% from the same time last year, with every single state recording double-(or triple-)digit percentage increases. Seems a little strange,... Read More
Extrapolating from these poll results, well over 100 million Americans do not expect the Trump administration to go gently into that good night after Joe Biden is declared the president-elect: The 12% of respondents who answered "not sure" are included in these results of the residuals that are not shown. Among those with an opinion,... Read More
The Democrats are increasingly the party of the rich and poor, Republicans of the middle and those at risk of sliding out of it: Like other demographic trends--racial, educational, religious, marital--this bodes well for Democrat electoral prospects in the future. The ranks of the top are growing a little, the ranks of the bottom are... Read More
the Fed stands alone, hi low the dollar goes, the Fed stands alone: China may gradually reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds to about $800 billion from the current level of more than $1 trillion, as the ballooning US federal deficit increases default risks and the Trump administration continues its blistering attack on China,... Read More
Sharing the COTW consulship, dfordoom raises an objection familiar to proponents of American political dissolution: I’m unsure of how political dissolution leads to "Whitestan" (or Whiteland, to hew closer to its cultural antecedents and has already been imagined in the future). The closest thing to an active independence movement in the US is explicitly multiracial.... Read More
216's COTW suggests a more palatable term for political dissolution than "secession": It will be especially rhetorically effective with Biden as president. His signature foreign policy plan in the late aughts was to softly partition Iraq into three federalized states so each could function effectively on its own instead of trying to force three separate... Read More