In the previous post it was noted that according to exit polling data the entire increase in Hispanic turnout in the 2016 election compared to the 2012 election was accounted for–and then some–by an increase in California’s Hispanic turnout.
Though the effect of Loretta Sanchez on the ballot may have helped Hispanic turnout in California, the numbers I saw before election day from early voting in North Carolina showed “other race” and “multi-racial” turnout up reasonably strongly …
I suspect Florida and Nevada had higher Hispanic turnout, as well, though that Hispanic turnout was also more pro-Trump than it was pro-Romney in 2012, at least, in Nevada.
I didn’t make it clear enough that I’m skeptical of the veracity of the conclusion. While it’s unavoidable given the data, it presumes that the data is accurate. There are reasons for skepticism. For example, nationally the percentage of voters without a college degree apparently declined by 25% between 2012 and 2016. That strikes me as almost literally incredible.
On election day, I heard, read, and saw several reports about huge lines at voting locations. All the people I talked to who voted on election day, though, said the lines and the wait times were minimal or nonexistent. Given that turnout was flat from 2012 and down from 2008 and that a record number of ballots were cast before election day, I suspect this anecdotal evidence scales better than the media accounts do.
Parenthetically, exit polls show North Carolina’s electorate was 70% white this time around, unchanged from 2012. Hispanic turnout in Florida and Nevada was flat to 2012 (up 1 point and down 1 point, respectively). For what it’s worth, the state exit polls mesh with the story that the national exit poll appears to tell.
Speaking of the California senate race (still another reason for Calexit!), it was nice to see that Loretta Sanchez, the candidate who was beaten decisively, actually won among Hispanics. It was also nice to see the winner, who is black, won the black vote by a 4-to-1 margin. When there isn’t a badwhite to unite the Coalition of the Fringes, the various parties comprising that precarious coalition turn on each other in a flash. Diversity is a wonderful thing! Lee Kuan Yew knew.
And speaking of Hispanics, Steve Sailer has noted that, relative to their IQs, Hispanics tend to be underachievers. They’re less likely to go to college or vote than blacks are, for instance. They’re also less likely to read. From Pew, the percentages of people, by race, who have not read a single book in any format in the last year:
Hispanics — 42%
Blacks — 31%
Whites — 24%