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There is some evidence that support for Trump appears to be stronger among younger blacks than among older ones. To the extent that is true, though, it does not appear to be carrying over to the GOP more broadly. From GoToQuiz.com, self-identified partisan affiliation among American blacks, by age, in a two-option format (Republican or Democrat):

 
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  1. Tusk says:

    What’s with the noticibly higher 40-49 range support?

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  2. SFG says:

    I think this is probably all statistical noise. You’ve got about 15% of the sample of 13,315, or 1,997; assume each of the six age buckets is the same size for a ballpark estimate (they’re not, but the smaller ones should have even more variation); square root of 333 (2000/6) is about 18, so your standard deviation for a Poisson variable will be about 5% of the total, easily enough to explain these small variations.

  3. What about by sex?

    Oh here is White Women Under 18 Two Way Results

    Alabama – 71.2%
    Wyoming – 69.2%
    Georgia – 68.2%
    Louisiana – 66.3%
    Nebraska – 62.1%
    New Mexico – 62%
    South Carolina – 61.3%
    Texas – 60.5%
    North Dakota – 60%
    Mississippi – 59.6%
    Idaho – 58.8%
    Utah – 58.6%
    South Dakota – 58.3%
    Arizona – 56.2%
    Nevada – 56.1%
    Missouri – 56%
    Tennessee – 55.2%
    Kansas – 55.2%
    Ohio – 54.7%
    Florida – 54.5%
    West Virginia – 53.9%
    Arkansas – 53.3%
    Oklahoma – 52.3%
    Indiana – 50.6%
    Virginia – 50.6%
    New Jersey – 50.3%
    North Carolina – 48.1%
    Wisconsin – 48.1%
    New Hampshire – 47.2%
    Colorado – 47%
    Rhode Island – 45.4%
    Kentucky – 44.8%
    Minnesota – 43.9%
    Pennseviyans – 43.5%
    Michigan – 43.4%
    Maryland – 42.5%
    Illinois – 42.4%
    Iowa – 42.1%
    Delaware – 40.8%
    California – 40.8%
    Oregon – 38.9%
    Montana – 36.8%
    New York – 35.8%
    Maine – 35.2%
    Washington – 34.1%
    Connenecut – 33.3%
    Hawaii – 33.3%
    Alaska – 31.25%
    Massachusetts – 28.9%
    DC – 25%
    Vermont – 20.8%

    • Replies: @James Bowery
  4. I’ll be looking at black women Under 18 two way by state next when home again

    At end of everything plan on making another Gen Z election map based off this. States like North Carolina and Colorado are hard to map because Gen Z is grossly unaffiliated party reg/id there, unlike the close partisanship of states like Florida

  5. Anon[100] • Disclaimer says:

    The GOP will not get any appreciable non-white support until it becomes more economically populist. The republicans need to be seen as getting to some big economic issue first and being its champion instead of being the party of no and of Wall Street. I think 2020 could be a blowout for the democrats as Trump may very well struggle to keep many of his working class voters in swing states like Pennsylvania.

    Healthcare, UBI, childcare, anti-usury, college loan reduction, reparations/relocation (I favor a plan shipping poor blacks from swing states to deep blue states like Illinois and California in exchange for cash payments) … etc are all issues the GOP should be leading on. But of course the stupid party is corrupt and inept, so they’ll do nothing as Sanders and Cortez pass anti-usury legislation and the democrats get all the credit for it.

    Trump’s reelection plan seems to be shaping up as scaring boomers with the specter of socialism and social issues like Israel, then going full Herbert Hoover in 2021. I think that could kill the republican party. There’s a high chance of a recession by Q4 of 2020. This could be 2008 all over again and since they staked the election on socialism nonsense, the democrats would have a very powerful mandate to enact all of those popular economic reforms (minus relocation) in 2021 and garner all the credit for themselves, making them nearly unstoppable electorally for a decade and beyond the point where republicans are electorally competitive on the national level anymore or have any shot of passing their own legislation and garnering support with it. 2020 could be the GOP’s Waterloo.

    • Replies: @Endgame Napoleon
  6. @SFG

    Black Women under 18 two-way split %GOP

    Washington – 24%
    Colorado – 18.1%
    Mississippi – 16.6%
    Oklahoma – 16.6%
    Texas – 16.1%
    Arizona – 14.7%
    South Carolina – 14.5%
    Arkansas – 14.2%
    Tennessee – 13%
    Iowa – 12.5%
    California – 11.1%
    Ohio – 10.5%
    Kansas – 10.5%
    Pennsylvania – 9.6%
    Massachusetts – 9.6%
    Alabama – 9.5%
    Virginia – 9%
    North Carolina – 8.1%
    New York – 7.6%
    Kentucky – 7.6%
    Florida – 7.1%
    Missouri – 7.1%
    Illinois – 7%
    New Jersey – 6.5%
    Michigan – 6.25%
    Louisiana – 6%
    Wisconsin – 6%
    Minnesota – 5.6%
    Nevada – 4.5%
    Maryland – 4.1%
    Indiana – 3.3%
    Georgia – 2%
    Delaware – 0%
    Connenecut – 0%

    Black Men under 18 two way split %GOP

    Kentucky – 56.2%
    DC – 42.8%
    Alabama – 36.3%
    Colorado – 33.3%
    Delaware – 33.3%
    Arizona – 31%
    Georgia – 29.8%
    Wisconsin – 29.7%
    Iowa – 28.5%
    California – 27.3%
    New Jersey – 25.3%
    Nevada – 25%
    Arkansas – 25%
    Texas – 24.7%
    Mississippi – 23.5%
    Florida – 22.7%
    Missouri – 22.2%
    OkLAHOMA – 22.2%
    Louisiana – 21.5%
    Minnesota – 20.7%
    Virginia – 19.6%
    Illinois – 19.2%
    New York – 19.1%
    Oregon – 18.75%
    North Carolina – 17.3%
    Michigan – 17.7%
    Maryland – 16.8%
    Kansas – 16.6%
    Pennsylvania – 16.6%
    Ohio – 15.9%
    Connecticut – 15%
    South Carolina – 14.8%
    Massachusetts – 14.2%
    Washington – 14.2%
    West Virginia – 11%
    Indiana – 9%
    Tennessee – 9%

  7. Hispanic Women under 18 two-way %GOP

    Kentucky – 62.5%
    New Mexico – 50%
    Idaho – 40%
    Utah – 40%
    Indiana – 35.7%
    Ohio – 32.3%
    Texas – 30.7%
    Tennessee – 30.7%
    South Carolina – 28.5%
    Nebraska – 28.5%
    Florida – 27.7%
    Arizona – 24.7%
    Minnesota – 24.1%
    North Carolina – 24.4%
    Georgia – 24%
    Colorado – 23.4%
    Connecticut – 23.3%
    Michigan – 23%
    Missouri – 22.2%
    Virginia – 20.9%
    Wisconsin – 20%
    New Jersey – 18.3%
    Iowa – 16.6%
    Maryland – 16.6%
    Illinois – 16.2%
    Nevada – 15.3%
    Washington – 14%
    Massachusetts – 13.7%
    California – 13.3%
    Pennsylvania – 13.3%
    Arkansas – 12.5%
    New York – 11.9%
    Oregon – 9%
    Kansas – 7.1%

    Hispanic Men under 18 two-way %GOP

    Tennessee – 65%
    Mississippi – 62.5%
    Alabama – 60%
    Louisiana – 60%
    South Carolina – 59%
    Florida – 58.3%
    Ohio – 55%
    Maryland – 54.9%
    Kentucky – 54.5%
    Oklahoma – 54.5%
    New Jersey – 54.4%
    Missouri – 53.3%
    Utah – 53.3%
    Massachusetts – 52.4%
    Texas – 51%
    New Mexico – 50.9%
    Virginia – 50.7%
    North Carolina – 50.7%
    Kansas – 48%
    DC – 43%
    Idaho – 42.8%
    New York – 42.1%
    Arizona – 41.9%
    Georgia – 41.8%
    Nebraska – 41.6%
    Minnesota – 40%
    Connecticut – 37.6%
    Pennsylvania – 37.5%
    California – 37.1%
    Washington – 36.6%
    Colorado – 36.2%
    Indiana – 33.3%
    Iowa – 32.1%
    Arkansas – 30%
    Illinois – 29.7%
    Michigan – 29%
    Nevada – 28.9%
    Wisconsin – 26.9%
    Oregon – 25.4%

  8. Gen Z Midwest by % GOP

    WW = white women, HM = Hispanic men et cetra

    Iowa
    WM – 68.9
    WW – 42.1
    BW – 12.5
    BM – 28.5
    HW. 16.6
    HM – 32.1

    Ohio –
    WM- 68.5
    WW – 54.7
    BW – 10.5
    BM – 15.9
    HW – 32.3
    HM- 55

    Indiana
    WM – 68.2
    WW – 50.6
    BW – 3.3
    BM – 9
    HW – 35.7
    HM – 33.3

    Pennsylvania
    WM – 66.7
    WW – 43.5
    BW – 9.6
    BM – 16.6
    HW – 13.3
    HM – 37.5

    Michigan
    WM – 66.5
    WW – 43.4
    BW – 6.25
    BM – 17.7
    HW – 23
    HM – 29

    Illinois
    WM – 66.3
    WW – 42.4
    BW – 7
    BM – 19.2
    HW – 16.2
    HM – 29.7

    Wisconsin
    WM – 64.9
    WW – 48.1
    BW – 6
    BM – 29.7
    HW – 20
    HM – 26.9

    Minnesota
    WM – 62.9
    WW – 43.9
    BW – 5.6
    BM – 20.7
    HW – 24.1
    HM – 40

  9. 216 says:

    O/T

    Polls, Germany

    We need our own intersectionality to combine immigration and the environment.

    The left already has issued the diktat that the evil white man destroyed the pristine Environment of Color.

  10. 216 says:

    Easter worshippers

    Note that she doesn’t single out the denomination, or use evangelical as a perjorative.

    Whoever runs her account understands the KKKrazy glue quite well.

    She runs circles around the Right, while among Dissidents we purity spiral when a certain religion isn’t “named”.

    • Replies: @iffen
  11. @Oblivionrecurs

    Living on a border county between Iowa and Nebraska, I find the contrast to be not unexpected. The longitudinal exists within Iowa and probably reflects not only population density but proximity to Chicago.

    • Replies: @Oblivionrecurs
  12. @Tusk

    Randomness. Every decadel cohort is within the margin of error of every other one.

    • Replies: @Oblivionrecurs
  13. @James Bowery

    Sioux County area? The GOP has done very well among Gen Z there

  14. @Audacious Epigone

    Like admittedly most of these are for fun considering the abysmal small sample sizes, but we can compare to other Gen Z polls like Hispanic Heritage, Reuters tracking, and state mock elections

    Definitely does give a generally sense of white men everywhere shifting GOP

  15. iffen says:
    @216

    while among Dissidents we purity spiral when a certain religion isn’t “named”.

    Aaahhh.

  16. AE – serious question.

    Did you get threatened by tptb? Threaten to dox you, or shut you down (or worse?)

    I’ve just noticed a changing energy coming from you, Unz, and Sailer, all at the same time. Even Derbyshire has changed.

    Anyways, I hope to be off the “moderated” list soon.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  17. The China angle will play very well with blacks. Left-wing economic nationalism is what is required to peel off more than 10% of the African-American votes.

    Blacks have no love for the Chinese, and I think that Trump standing up to them is something that will rouse the average black, even if they don’t understand why. “We bein’ tough on de Chynese!”

    Trump will never win a majority of the black vote. Too many blacks are violently anti-white and anti-America. But not all are like that. A sizeable portion (20%) do pay attention, and have/had a blue collar job that isn’t an affirmative action Gov. job. These people are noticing what Trump is doing. They might come out an support him in 2020.

    • Replies: @Oblivionrecurs
  18. @UrbaneFrancoOntarian

    Masculinity is a critical thing in black youth

    We definitely do see evidence of millennial/gen z blacks having more unique views

    • Replies: @216
  19. 216 says:
    @Oblivionrecurs

    The Hispanic male/female gap is intriguing.

    Women still expect machismo, or think it is still demanded (in the Old Country?). Hispanic men are statistically tied with white men in terms of expectations.

    • Replies: @MikeatMikedotMike
  20. @216

    I think the Trump victory validated the Sailer Strategy that R candidates running for executive office (mayoral excluded) should worry more about securing the white vote than wasting time and money on persuading minority groups.

    Further, negros as a whole will never be convinced to leave the Democratic welfare plantation, short of all the members of the DNC showing up at the next convention shrouded in white pointy hoods. Even then, it’s not a guarantee.

    Negros have yet to understand that every position they support – Immigration, taxation, welfare entitlements, affirmative action, abortion – have all had catastrophic effects on their lives and livelihood. Democratic politicians push all of the above relentlessly, but the negros (that actually vote) still vote for them in droves.

  21. 216 says:
    @MikeatMikedotMike

    I think the Trump victory validated the Sailer Strategy that R candidates running for executive office (mayoral excluded) should worry more about securing the white vote than wasting time and money on persuading minority groups.

    The null hypothesis is that the GOP lost the popular vote. I’m an obviously biased conspiracist, so I think Trump actually won the popular vote. But we would be best served to use the null hypothesis.

    Romney-Clinton voters are a statistical reality, as are Gary voters. Are these people moving back into the GOP camp?

    Trump did marginally better among non-whites than Romney, and their turnout was lower in ’16 vs. ’12. That tipped the balance in WI, MI and PA.

    The GOP has done f’ all to address healthcare/education.

    WWC voters are low turnout compared to UMC, don’t expect the GOP to run registration drives.

    How does the GOP win CO, NV, NM, OR, MN, IL, NH, ME???

    • Replies: @Oblivionrecurs
  22. @216

    People really underestimate how much of Trump’s victory was geting non-educated white turnout to go up

    And how much the Education turnout-gap is going to shift the importance of the electorate to women

    And to black women most of all

    https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/20190404/take-notice-long-ignored-black-women-voters-gaining-power-in-florida

    • Replies: @Feryl
  23. @MikeatMikedotMike

    Black Men as voters don’t carry the same weight as Black Women

    And i honestly suspect a lot of the rise in Trump/GOP support for young black men is a consequence of the decline of the black church

    http://www.indianapolisrecorder.com/recorder_headlines/article_22c59d7c-045f-11e9-84c2-ffc9307e8714.html

  24. I’m friends with a great deal of very pro-Trump supporting blacks (though evidence to suggest blacks play up conservatism support to white interviews) that said many of them have attended multiple rallies with us

    None of them are registered Republican or Democrat.

  25. @MikeatMikedotMike

    Something overlooked in the Hispanic Heritage Gen Z poll is candidate preference

    Overwhelmingly by each state blacks who identified GOP did so via Ben Carson, Latinos did so via Ted Cruz or Rubio et cetra

    I’ll do a more in state by state look one day, but it’ll come to the same conclusion, skin games matter.

  26. @UrbaneFrancoOntarian

    No, not specifically, but something I have in common with those other guys you mentioned is the capacity to notice. Deplatforming is occurring all over the place, and not just on the top level like social media–also payment processors, hosting providers, etc.

    We can pretend to totally ignore the obvious trend and then wake up one morning to find that our hosting provider has booted us or paypal won’t process donations to Steve Sailer anymore, etc, or we can try to make accommodations. It’s easier to be cavalier about it when there is little at stake.

    • Agree: 216
  27. @Oblivionrecurs

    Re: the decline of the black church, that makes sense intuitively. The near-monolithic black vote is something that almost cannot happen organically. As a central organizing institution like the church loses influence, voting patterns will shift.

    Whites, Hispanics, and Asian churchgoers are significantly more likely to vote Republican. While I’m not sure the opposite is the case for blacks, blacks don’t follow the same trend. Something I need to look at in more detail.

  28. @Audacious Epigone

    The 36/38 elections are seriously underappreciated for how they shifted Blacks from split/lean-GOP to an all-Dem bloc and Southern Whites from economically liberal to the economic conservative powerhouse

    That said back during my high-school leftism days we found it incredibly hard to motivate traditional blacks to support us despite the polling indicating that they should be our primary recruitment.

    Usually our leftism left a sour note as it was too white, too idealistic, and violent so each time they left not for the burning of the system, but they’d be lining up for church sponsored souls to the polls

    And everyone attended at church would march to go vote and they’d all vote the same. No one dared support anyone but the Democrats. I wonder if black church attendence is going down in certain states and that’s inadvertently helping us

    Southern blacks activist where usually the most impoverished and primary focused on job opportunities. Where Midwest politically charged blacks are far more of the intelligentsia and black nationalist crowd like Nation of Islam, New Black Panthers, Vice Lords, and African Blood brotherhood to name a few. Which partially explains the gap in Southern and Midwest Black support for Sanders.

    Oddly enough thanks to my objectively Neo-Nazi family in the 90s we’re really close friends with many of the Midwest Black gang-stars despite the vast ideological differences between us, so I’ve plenty of opportunity to meet very high ranking Chicago Vice Lords or Black Panthers, even music stars, and i can say they’re definitely far more read than our southern blacks. They’re also far more proud of re-segregating areas

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  29. Blexit or ‘left vs right’. All chimera.

    It comes down to “Is it good for Jews?” in matters of ideology. Blacks will stick to Democrats unless something BIG happens. It is possible IF Democrats become essentially an Immigrant Party.

    The problem of ‘left vs right’ dichotomy is that even ‘leftist’ voices such as BDS are shut down IF they go against Jewish interests. And notice that the current ‘left’ is almost bereft of anti-war voices. Why? They’ve been marginalized by the Jews who pose as the ‘left’ but are really tribalists.

    This is a good video below, but it yammers about the ‘left’ than about the Jewish Power.

  30. Wency says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    Are you or is anyone else aware of any good writing that describes how exactly black political consensus forms?

    I can get behind this intuition that black churches are important, but are there really so many black ministers telling congregants exactly how to vote (and being followed)? Plenty of people in the pews, of all races and denominations, will refuse listen to moral instruction coming directly from the Bible — how is it that they suddenly, ironically, will take the preacher’s political views as gospel?

    And what are those ministers responding to? How are they coordinating with other black ministers? Is any other black media important in opinion-forming?

    I’ve highlighted a number of times for people the fact that Hillary was beating Obama in polls for the 2008 SC primary as late as December, only to lose to him by 30 points 2 months later as black consensus formed around Obama. If you can understand the precise process whereby that happened, you can probably go a long way towards predicting Democratic primary contests and the future of blacks in the Democratic party.

  31. LondonBob says:

    Still think the key with blacks is not getting them to vote against you, clear that a lot of black men didn’t mind Trump so took the easy option and didn’t bother to vote. Even Obama put a lot of effort in to riling up the blacks to vote for him with the Ferguson and Trayvon stuff. This opinion poll Kevin MacDonald tweeted out is instructive.

  32. 216 says:
    @Wency

    I can get behind this intuition that black churches are important, but are there really so many black ministers telling congregants exactly how to vote (and being followed)? Plenty of people in the pews, of all races and denominations, will refuse listen to moral instruction coming directly from the Bible — how is it that they suddenly, ironically, will take the preacher’s political views as gospel?
    And what are those ministers responding to? How are they coordinating with other black ministers? Is any other black media important in opinion-forming?

    Ed Klein’s The Amateur is a pulp-nonfiction book created for the ’12 election. It has an amusing part where he interviewed Rev. Jeremiah Wright, where it is explained to the clueless white reader how the black church operates.

    The black churches run turnout drives, and “souls to the polls” for elderly voters.

    • Replies: @Feryl
    , @iffen
  33. MBlanc46 says:

    I certainly hope that support for Trump among young white men doesn’t carry over to the GOP more broadly, either.

  34. Feryl says:
    @Oblivionrecurs

    Younger people are amazingly indifferent to voting, regardless of putative “radical” activity among kids. Some kids get into politics to have an excuse to make trouble*, but overall interest in politics/civics is extremely low among teens and younger adults. See also the extremely gray audience of cable news; other forms of news outlets, to the extent that they target younger people, are mainly appealing to rather niche audience; both the Alt-Right and the SJW Left are pretty dominant trends among younger people, but only about 40-50% of people under 45 are all that interested in politics in the first place**.

    *Activism among college kids is often a sign of being bitter, alienated, and troll-ish, while older people who get involved in political activity often have a genuine sense of responsibility to help society out.

    **Normies notice things like crime levels, drug use levels, the availability of good jobs, the cost of goods, the use/misuse of the military, and so forth, but generally don’t buy into the idea that The Left or The Right is some kind of maestro that magically dictates the direction of society. If it was really that simple, then 100% of people would vote for the “good” party or candidate to improve society. It’s only when a president is an overwhelming failure to improve or at least maintain basic Quality of Life indicators (e.g., Hoover, LBJ, Carter, and GW Bush) that many normies buy into the idea that we have to get someone else in there to patch things up.

  35. @Feryl

    Then why don’t people notice that Negroids, Australoids and mestizos tend to cause crime regardless of ideology? Under leftism they cause problems. Under rightism they still cause problems. Under segregation there was a lot of Negroid crime. After integration the amount of Negroid crime even increased.

    • Replies: @Feryl
  36. Feryl says:
    @216

    I read a recent article that talked about the dominance of DNC house candidates among older black women. Turnout spurts by black church ladies basically dictate the outcome of Dem primaries, something for which there is great embarrassment or ignorance among the young SJW Left in particular. Old black women keep cock-blocking RadLibs, which ought to spark a movement among the “true” Left to emphasize early primary elections in the Western (e.g., very non-black) states. As it currently stands, the centrists favored by old black ladies can run up lots of financial, cultural, and electoral momentum by running the table in the Eastern black dominated primaries (the South is quite black to begin with, while the “urban” e.g. black communities of the Northeast and Midwest exert a major influence on Dem primaries).

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/05/joe-biden-winning-big-older-voters/589555/

    The general thrust is that older voters are Dem loyalists will do anything to “beat Trump”, including supporting Reaganite veterans like Biden (whose views on crime control, foreign policy etc. are totally out of step with Millennials). The young Left is bored by the idea of installing yet another politician who still thinks it’s 1993.

  37. Feryl says:
    @EastKekistani

    The point was about Quality of Life indicators relative to the era; nobody expected Reagan to bring back 1950’s level of safety, it’s just that the Jimmy Carter era was so horrible that people were eager to, if anything, exaggerate the goodness of Reagan and his America to try and advance beyond what a dumpster fire 1977-1980* was (illegal drug use peaked, abortion peaked, the murder rate peaked, and so on).

    *America was a much whiter country in the late 70’s than it is now, so obviously it’s idiotic for white people (or anyone else) to attribute every negative quality in society to a particular ethnic group. The generation born from about 1955-1965 is itself a dumpster fire compared to other generations, and most of those people are white! Let’s not forget just who made the late 70’s such a train wreck (hint: it wasn’t GI generation judges and bureaucrats, it was late Boomers).

    I can’t emphasize enough the generational differences within ethnic groups; early Millennials like myself grew up with neon clothes, hit Disney movies, Just Say No to drugs, stranger danger, and the like. Late Boomers grew up with practically non-existent guidance on what constituted good or bad behavior**. The behavior of children drastically improved in the 1990’s (when for the first time, America’s children were quite non-white), whereas the mostly white children of the 1970’s and 80’s were often obnoxious delinquents.

    **By the late 1970’s, older generations reported that they were truly alarmed by the violence, drug use, and poor academic performance of America’s youth; these trends only got slightly better in the 80’s, some of them got worse in the early 90’s. But these trends have all improved significantly since the late 90’s, because Millennials are much better behaved than Boomers and X-ers.

  38. Feryl says:
    @Wency

    The SJW Left never points out the elephant in the room (that older black people decide the primaries), because that would be racist. Or something.

    American culture is still mostly “sourced” from the East, which is much blacker than the West. Verily, the classic American Civil Rights narrative centered around blacks is still relevant in the East, but might as well be Sci-Fi to Westerners (where whites get along well with Mexicans and Asians).

    At some point, you’d think that the New Americans born after circa 1970 would get tired of blacks hogging everything*. But just as Audacious points out that the holocaust-centric narrative of post-WW2 culture is going to decline from generational attrition, it’s safe to say that a similar fate might await the conventional Civil Rights narrative, because America is demographically, not the conventional America anymore.

    *Black centric ID politics led to stuff like BLM, which helped cause Hilary to lose an election; at this point much of the Left (perhaps not consciously) is going to try as much as possible to play up other angles besides the War on Black people, to gain more electoral clout. BLM appears to have been put on the shelf since 2017; whether BLM was a grassroots spontaneous out-burst of rage that burnt itself out, or whether it was an astro-turf operation by several misguided liberal elites, isn’t entirely clear (I think it was both things to some degree), but it obviously was a black eye on the Obama era.

  39. @Oblivionrecurs

    I would venture a guess that one reason black women carry more weight as voters is due to the large amount of black male convicts who cannot vote.

  40. Feryl says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    I saw a survey which said that lower class Trump voters were much less likely to attend church; “racially” conscious white voters tend to avoid going to church.

    Comfortable/civically active whites/Asians/Hispanics appear to be fine with multi-culturalism*; perhaps Asians and Hispanics who attend church don’t see politics as a racial spoils system, whereas blacks of all types are the most aware of, and supportive of, the notion that politics is all about racial spoils. Naturally, the “minorities” who see things through the lens of race vote Democrat; on the other hand, there’s obviously a growing level of tension between well-off/generally older Republicans who are highly religious and optimistic about race relations, and poorer/younger de-churched white people** who want the GOP to a vehicle for the advancement of nationalism and mono-culturalism.

    *Reaganism is partly rooted in the idea that tribal interests will be sublimated to the “wholesome” values of hard work and respect for the market, and said market will promote multi-culturalism as a way of warding off tribal battles. This is all well and good when the middle class is strong, but absent economic good cheer, a lot of alienated “losers” will lose patience with corporate multi-culturalism (sing Kumbaya and open the borders up).

    Ultimately, trying to relive the mid-80’s, again and again, is just not going to work. There’s been a massive rise in ID politics (which the neo-libs have unsuccessfully tried to suppress or co-opt). “They” want to stop this, but too many people are now invested in the idea that their ID politics are better.

    **Rather than lie to ourselves that more religion will be the solution (which is what the Reaganites have been lying about for decades), it’s clear that a secular/agnostic GOP run by X-ers and Millennials will make a lot more progress toward nationalism***. Neither mainline Christianity nor even the splinter sects (Evangelicals, mainly) has proven to have any backbone against globalism, because ultimately The Church under the guidance of Silents and Boomers exists primarily to make money and ward off tribal conflict; compare that to dominant strains of Islam that emphasize the supremacy of Islamic culture and people. Christianity/The West is complacent and corrupt, Islam is rolling up it’s sleeves and wants to get down to the business of “settling” who is best.

    ***The surge of nationalism/tribalism that happened in the 1930’s and 40’s was motivated by emphasizing one’s duty to one’s nation, not one’s religion; of course, at this time some elites commandeered religion to emphasize tribal/national loyalty, a vastly different approach to Reaganism commandeering religion to promote multi-culturalism.

  41. Feryl says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    The traditional GOP does abysmally bad among secular whites, and mainstream Western culture has been downplaying religion since the mid-century, with each passing generation being less religious.

    It would seem that a “Kumbaya coalition” of Evangelical whites/Asians/Hispanics makes as much sense electorally as a screen door on a submarine. The Reaganite GOP stinks to high heaven among secular whites born after 1970. The GOP can’t expect to do it’s traditional song and dance about God, Guns, and low taxes forever; they don’t have demographics on their side, anyway.

    Since the Dems are more likely to place success above “principles”, they’re going to start playing cards like a debt jubilee, or a massive government program to employ more people, or a big raise in the minimum wage.

    The GOP and it’s richest (and oldest) donors is far too committed to the illusory charms of Reaganism to get off it’s damn high horse and recognize the demographic apocalypse looming* (while the GOP does happy talk WRT race and religion, it treats secularism like a third rail, even though Reaganite Christianity and the demographics who bought into it are withering away)

    *Reaganite Christianity brought about the West’s downfall, anyway, since it promotes dithering about tribal conflicts, feel good horseshit, instead of facing the grim reality that tribes need to follow rites of unity and strength to stay healthy and fend off rival tribes. The West since 1980 has become a bunch of fat, slow, weak degenerates who just want to feel good and possess superficial status totems, rather than put any honest effort into staying in cultural and physical shape. First it was the elites in the 60’s and 70’s failing to explain the necessity of fitness, then a growing number of middle class and working class people succumbed to the degeneracy from the mid-70’s thru mid 90’s. We’ve gotten fatter and lazier by the year, and those who promote this complacency need to be retired.

  42. @Anon

    Democrats have already passed a healthcare bill, and in its wake, life expectancy fell, especially for middle-aged whites.

    Until very recently, childcare was the responsibility of parents except in cases of extreme wealth. Parents, not low-wage daycare workers and not elderly grandparents, raised the kids they produced.

    This was the standard, even in eras with far more full-time jobs and real demand for labor.

    As the need for full-time labor has dwindled—even in high-wage jobs where moms in dual-earner households enjoy libertine absenteeism privileges—we hear one call after another for more free childcare, as if these moms were working a lot of hours.

    …..as if these moms were needed to work more hours……..

    They’re not. Many work officially part time, and many work unofficially part time in Voted Best For Moms absenteeism-gang office jobs. They’re not needed more at work. When you’re needed at work, your boss is on it, demanding that you be there.

    They’re not needed at work, so goverment needs to pay for…………..childcare.

    Logical.

    In an era when the average employed person works part time, it is even more ludicrous for goverment to pay for childcare, particularly since most of the part-time workers are married moms, working part time to add keeping-up-with-the-Jones’ income to a household-supporting spousal income.

    Or, they are single moms who work part time to stay under the earned-income limits for welfare programs that cover their food expense, their housing expense and their electricity expense, with monthly cash assistance and up to $6,431 in refundable child tax credit cash, given to the moms on the premise that….they….use…it for………….childcare, even though many spend it on Florida beach trips with boyfriends or expensive tattoos.

    Many moms also already have monthly help with childcare from Uncle Sam.

    Unbeknownst to our legislators at $174k, there’s an entire department for that at the Department of Human Services.

    And no, moms aren’t just working part time because they want to. It is because of the welfare-rigged Neoliberal labor market that sculpted itself around the crappy, anti-work welfare “reform” bill of 1996.

    Moms also work the temp jobs in this churn-job economy, dropping their welfare during months when their income goes over the welfare programs’ limits.

    So, let’s create one more Childcare Welfare Program, adding departments to give part-time and temp mommies even more childcare-related cash than their up to $6,431 in refundable child tax credit cash.

    Let’s give married moms and divorced moms with rent-covering child support checks more than the thousands in non-redundable child tax credit cash that they add to spousal income, using the extra kid-related money from government on kitchen redos or one more lengthy family-friendly trip, approved by their equally absentee crony-mom manager who fires the few, childless, single people hired for 5 minutes of absenteeism, even when they meet the quotas every month and never miss a day (or an afternoon) of work.

    Crony-corrupt momma manager fires them, even though it is the single, childless employees and the single moms with over-18 kids who live on earned-only income from one source.

    Moms like collusion in absenteeism.

    One reason why corrupt crony parents get away with this is the advanced software that does more and more of their work, whether they’re working in a low-wage mom-dominated position or in most higher wage fare.

    This is one more reason why more Childcare assistance is the least needed thing in the world.

    If US employers were creating more full-time job openings at rent-covering wages than they could fill, it might make some sense. But that could not be further from the case.

    Just as it is illogical cubed for goverment to bend over backwards to make sure that the wealth-concentrating moms in dual-high-earner households, with two household-supporting jobs hoarded under one roof while low-wage NannyCam-surveilled babysitters do the work of raising the couple’s kids, are above firing, no matter how much time they take off from work (far beyond their PTO and pregnancy leave), it is super-ludicrous for goverment to pay even more to keep up this pretense of “career” moms in low-wage, temp, part-time and churn jobs insufficient to support a household.

    Wonen used to be under social pressure to marry a man who would work—full time—letting them do the work of raising the kids they created. Now, government is the entity under social pressure to raise the kids.

    Families were more mobile then, not chained to cities where at-their-beck-and-call grandparents are there to accomodate the dual earners’ work lives and their extensive, above-firing vacationing schedules.

    The mom did the work of raising the kids, freeing up the man to follow every opportunity for higher pay, more job stability and advancement possibilities.

    Far, far more moms who never worked outside the home retired into paid-for homes than will today’s working moms, and labor market conditions were not so brutal for the women who have….to….work: the ones without access to unearned income from government or spousal income.

    While others run around doing the work of raising their kids for free or for a pittance, top 20%er mommas take it all now, retiring with two streams of SS income and two 401ks in many cases or with a 401k and goverment pension money from mom-dominated jobs, like teaching, while most of the single women will face rent for a one-room apartment at $900 per month (or more) with nothing but $1,400 per month (or less) in SS-retirement money. Half of the checks are even smaller, and those are mostly going to the single women who never held an above-firing, family-friendly, absenteeism-friendly, high-paying job for 5 or more years (per requirement for the bigger SS checks).

    Democrats, no more and no less than Republicans, are not the friends of single, childless, non-rich women or single moms after their kids turn 18, no matter how much they trot out the womb-productivity-based fake feminist themes.

    If more moms raised their own kids, there would be plenty of jobs for the 95 million US citizens of working age out of the labor force and the approx. 7 million more each month, submitting new UC applications and (thus) counted as unemployed.

    There would be plenty of new household formation, too, with no need for government support. Because, there would be more demand for labor, including from those without unearned income streams from a spouse, an ex spouse or welfare and child tax credits that make it easy to work few hours per week, in a temp capacity and for low pay.

    There would be fewer Barbie-feminist-princess palaces, but there would be more modest homeownership. There would be fewer dual-high-earner parents able to live the lifestyle reserved for the high-rolling, risk-taking or old-money rich in past eras, including trips to Europe every few months, constant posh dining out, private schools for all kids, etc.

    It makes absolutely no sense to add one more layer of pay-per-birth mom benefits, expecting different results.

    You will just see the same gigantic lack of labor-force participation, the same economic stagnation and the same wealth concentration at the top.

    That is what our paid-off politicians in both parties want, though, since that is what the Cheap Labor Lobby wants.

  43. @Oblivionrecurs

    You were a liberal from a neo-nazi family?

    I think I’m a little lost!

    • Replies: @Oblivionrecurs
  44. @Wency

    I’m not aware of one. I thought leveraging that intuitively would give me an inside edge on predicting the 2020 nominee, but Kamala Harris is floundering (to put it mildly), so I’m in as much need of such an article as you are.

    • Replies: @Oblivionrecurs
    , @iffen
  45. @Feryl

    Its worth mentioning that among those without college educations we only really get politically active when we get married, have a house, and children

    Something we should have been seeing with millennials but obviously they’re lagging behind

    Worse is that younger conservative millennials have pathetically low turnout

  46. @Audacious Epigone

    Family is very diverse ideologically – shoulda seen us during the 60s and 70s with Appalachian households members belonging to the Rainbow coalitions, out in out communist parties, or some Klan group. I’ve got footage of my Polish family members singing dixie at a George Wallace rally in Michigan

    Even small divisions such as Nixonite v Reagan Republicans are huge in the family.

    And yet somehow despite these divisions still none of us are mass killing each other like certain very hegemonic groups lmao

    That said during my initial years in high-school i was an edgy communist youth with too many books, who had little exposure to blacks, and when i preached communism to them none of the messaging really stuck.

    During my post-high school started hanging out with more not exteme-leftist (and men in general) and this actually lead to more exposure to blacks, this was largely spurred on by hanging out with my older Neo Nazi cousin, who thanks to them i actually found out that oddly enough blacks where more willing to hang out with my Neo-Nazi cousin’s crew than any of my SJW communist friends. Hell I’ve found it odd that the leftist whites seem the most uncomfortable among blacks or feel to need to apologise when we say racist-shit (meanwhile the black men are laughing up a storm)

  47. @Audacious Epigone

    I’m not so sure Harris is out of the game

    Her campaign crowds are exactly the type to pull a Gillum and sweep the primary unexpectedly.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  48. iffen says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    but Kamala Harris is floundering (to put it mildly)

    I think that she could work around the “not black enough” problem. I think that it is her personality; she has no charisma. She’s actually never had to campaign by herself and on her own merits. I should have taken a clue from the Kavanaugh hearings when she swelled up like a toad that she did not have a public “political persona.” Which is, of course, not the same as being 99 and 44/100% pure political opportunist.

  49. iffen says:
    @216

    The black churches run turnout drives, and “souls to the polls” for elderly voters.

    Walking around money talks the talk and walks the walk.

    Millions in campaign contributions are funnelled to voter registration and voter turnout and all perfectly “legal.”

  50. @Oblivionrecurs

    She’s received some black endorsements in South Carolina. She has to avoid getting clobbered in Iowa and New Hampshire–no way she’ll win either, but she needs to come in the top 4 in both, probably–and then win in South Carolina.

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @Oblivionrecurs
  51. @Audacious Epigone

    She has a shot at New Hampshire considering how well she polls with college educated whites again something Gillum had

    Nevada too is possible

  52. Jimi says:

    If you’re under 25 and black, you are much more likely to be an immigrant of recent immigrant descent compared to older blacks and thus less likely to vote in solidarity with African American community.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  53. Analysing voter files for blacks in Florida, Louisiana, and North Carolina

    Something worth mentioning is that Republicans make very little tangible gains. At 65+ blacks in all three states where 1% Republican, at the 16-17 year old pre-registration for Florida and North Carolina blacks they where 3% Republican

    That said only 65% of Gen Z blacks identified as Democrat in all 3 states, a dramatic drop-off from the 95-99% Democrat highs olders 65+ blacks went for, and we know that unaffilated blacks vote significantly less and more often right of traditional African Americans i.e Haitian voters in Florida

  54. @Jimi

    Interesting point, thanks.

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