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Charles Pewitt on how by playing with the dollar, the powers that be are playing with fire:

Continuity bias is strong in the Upper Middle Class White Boob American and in a lot of other Americans and the only thing holding this thing in the USA together is monetary extremism from the privately-controlled Federal Reserve Bank.

The asset bubbles in stocks and bonds and real estate are what keep these White boob bastards fat and happy and in a zombie state of Continuity Bias Bliss.

When the monetary extremism music is over those sonofabitches are gonna turn out the lights on the dreams of a fat and happy future.

I say raise the federal funds rate to 20 percent like it was in 1981 and pop all these damn asset bubbles in stocks and bonds and real estate.

The TreasureFed knows there is no way out the way it came in. The only option is forward. The official inflation target has been calibrated upwards, the pretense of even considering tightening over the next several years is gone, the Fed is urging fiscal stimulus to pair with monetary stimulus, the institution is staring down an additional infinitely expensive mandate to End Racism, trade deficits are hitting all time records, and the DXY is down 10% over the last few months. If this doesn’t destroy the dollar, nothing will.

Unlike Pewitt though, I say we see if the dollar really is impervious. If it is, or at any rate its destruction is decades down the road as many here maintain, forget raising rates to call in fire on our location. Open up the cash cannons and let them rip. Instead of just the White boob bastards being fat and happy, let’s spread that happiness around. Go big or go home, as the president says. Forget another single shot of $1200, double the amount and make it monthly for everyone. If a $2400 per month UBI is free, why isn’t Congress giving us one?

Either the dollar isn’t strong or the stingy bastards are lying to us (or both). Time to call them on it.

 
• Category: Culture/Society, Economics, Ideology • Tags: COTW 
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  1. I’ve got another ten or twelve years. Things are going to be bad enough as it is. Can you please hold off playing chicken with the American economy until I’ve checked out?

    • Replies: @Brian Reilly
    @MBlanc46

    MBlanc, That attitude is a prime contributing factor of the mess we are in the midst of. It is shared by many tens of millions of otherwise decent people. All over the country people who know better just say and vote for getting theirs while the getting is good, and the Hell with things after that person is dead. "Just let me get mine!!". When Madoff blew up, people who knew better, and had gone with the scam for years were saying the same thing.

    So Joe the government worker has to get his juiced pension, Mary the banker needs easy money to lend and make a buck on, and Tom the social worker (unemployed) needs jobless "pay" even though he has no family to provide for, and won't move for work.

    Yep, MBlanc, just play that string out for another 10 years, then burn the whole shithouse gown. Nice. Glad to see you care.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    , @Supply and Demand
    @MBlanc46

    The eternal boomer, not once thinking about the future he leaves the world with, strikes again.

    Replies: @MBlanc46

  2. If a $2400 per month UBI is free, why isn’t Congress giving us one?

    That’s something like three-quarters of a Trillion bucks a month, man. That money could be going to the really needy, you know, the big banks and big business in general. I know, it’s all going down anyway. I agree on that, Audacious.

    I could be wrong, but I’m assuming Candidate Pewitt is in favor of busting the dollar via a huge interest rate hike instead of helicopter money so that it gets the big guys along with everyone else. I think the big guys are needy right now so they can get set up for bugging out properly. They’ve gotta know what’s coming, right?

  3. DXY down 10%? Pfft. Before the USD goes tits up, all the other currencies have to go first.

    No, the EUR won’t work (tons of debt/regs, no common debt between the nations), no the CHF won’t work, it’s too small for the world to hide in, no the RMB won’t work, China has it’s own debt problem (it’s all off the cooked books)…

    It’s the cleanest dirty shirt.

    • Agree: JL
    • Replies: @A123
    @Ash Williams


    No, the EUR won’t work (tons of debt/regs, no common debt between the nations), no the CHF won’t work, it’s too small for the world to hide in, no the RMB won’t work, China has it’s own debt problem (it’s all off the cooked books)…
     
    You are correct.

    I have made this point in prior discussions. There is no credible replacement for the USD.

    Commodities, such as Gold, are also a terrible choice. There are huge costs associated with physical storage. Plus, Gold foil wrapped tungsten bars make the "money supply" unknowable. One of the reasons why the RMB is struggling is the number of major Chinese banks that have accepted fake gold as collateral. For example: (1)

    The city of Wuhan, China, is hitting the headlines again – this time as the place of origin for what could be one of the largest gold counterfeiting scams in recent times.

    According to multiple industry reports published this week, the Wuhan-based, NASDAQ-listed Kingold Jewelry issued 83 tonnes of alleged gold -- valued at $4.2 billion and the equivalent to 22 percent of the country's gold -- as collateral to obtain loans from at least 14 Chinese money lenders and trust banks.

    Except the "gold" in the bars is suspected of being gilded copper.

    "This is hardly surprising; most of the fakes we see in our business are coming out of China," Michael Wittmeyer, a gold expert for JMBullion.com. "There are replica products of what we sell online, and while people pay good money, they are essentially worthless."
     
    Until a credible replacement is available, the USD will continue us to be the global reserve currency.

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://www.foxnews.com/us/wuhan-company-now-at-the-center-of-one-of-the-biggest-fake-gold-scandals

    Replies: @Ash Williams, @The Wild Geese Howard, @Audacious Epigone

    , @AnotherDad
    @Ash Williams


    It’s the cleanest dirty shirt.
     
    Exactly. Thank you Ash.

    I don't know why this simple common sense continues to elude so many people. There's a bunch of folks commenting her on Unz, who continually predict disaster. (And i've lost some money myself expecting more inflation than we've had.)

    But the bottom line is the US dollar looks ridiculous--especially given our "nation of immigrants" demographic disaster--.... except that everyone else looks worse!

    Europe? Even worse native fertility. Even worse immigration in terms of breaking social cohesion. Not to mention all the issues around the Euro itself.

    China? Well they are clearly the long term bet. One assumes they--not confused with minoritarian nonsense--will eventually work out a plan (incentives) to move toward eugenic fertility and a gentile deflation of the population to a reasonable number or ever more highly productive Chinese. But what allows them to do that is the Chicom dictatorship. Do you trust anything regarding them? Would you park money there and have any confidence that your asset is safe and you can dispose of it where and when you want.

    Anybody else? Sure there are some better managed places, but not capable of being the world's reserve currency.

    That's the deal. The US dollar is still the world's reserve currency *despite* the incredible mismanagement of both the dollar--and more importantly--the nation. It still wins, because while it sucks ... so do all the alternatives!

    Replies: @Ash Williams

    , @Audacious Epigone
    @Ash Williams

    In an environment of the international financial system becoming unraveled, I'm skeptical that a currency with such net negative production capacity--trade deficits are skyrocketing now, post global Covid shock--is going to be able to remain the most resilient. But if it is going to remain that way, not shower it on Americans?

  4. The “continuity bias” or complacency is everywhere. You really can’t expect anything else from a country that’s had it so good for so long. I mean, you’d have to be over 80 years old to have any memories of really hard times and turmoil that affected the majority of Americans. Not many people understand that you can’t be forever blessed.

    45 years too early, but, well, it’s a great song:

    • Agree: Mark G., Realist
  5. stimulus, schmimulus; what is mostly talked about is whether the dying patient deserves a band-aid or a tourniquet

    what is needed is a national program to restore defunct capacities on a fundamental level. people need skilled and semi-skilled work, which is to say that the means of efficiently producing and improving valuable goods and services has become terminally fucked in america if not the whole of the western world on account of the ability and willingness of our decadent overclass to extract money vampirically through social and financial engineering. at present the capacity to understand this dynamic- let alone the will and means to correct it- is lacking.

    it will not arise unless the lord God deigns to intervene or catastrophe inevitably occurs and disrupts the mechanics of the stasis dynamic.

    • Agree: Brian Reilly
  6. As the famous maxim goes, the markets can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.

    • Agree: Realist
    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    @JL


    As the famous maxim goes, the markets can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.
     
    Rule #1) Never fight the Fed

    Rule #2) BTFD
  7. … I say we see if the dollar really is impervious. If it is, or at any rate its destruction is decades down the road as many here maintain, forget raising rates to call in fire on our location. Open up the cash cannons and let them rip….

    I cannot tell how facetious, so let me play the straight man.

    Cash cannons would not end well, I don’t think. What ever happened to the more moderate idea that the U.S. negotiate a gradual transfer, staged over a period of a few decades, of international transactions from the dollar to Special Drawing Rights (SDR)? That’s a win for the U.S.—and while it might make U.S. stocks a drab investment for a long time, it would strengthen U.S. manufacturing without great shocks to the economy.

    (Then we need an immigration moratorium to make U.S. real estate a drab investment for a long time; but that’s another topic.)

    Not an economist, I do not pretend to understand such things well, but cash cannons seem dramatic. Besides, we tried UBI this year, did we not? Neat idea. The result was nationwide riots.

    • Replies: @iffen
    @V. K. Ovelund

    Besides, we tried UBI this year, did we not? Neat idea. The result was nationwide riots.

    You should write for the MSM. Your conclusions and facts bob along together without any casual connections.

    Replies: @V. K. Ovelund, @V. K. Ovelund

    , @dfordoom
    @V. K. Ovelund


    Cash cannons would not end well, I don’t think.

     

    Nobody cares about the long term.

    What ever happened to the more moderate idea that the U.S. negotiate a gradual transfer, staged over a period of a few decades, of international transactions from the dollar to Special Drawing Rights (SDR)? That’s a win for the U.S.—and while it might make U.S. stocks a drab investment for a long time, it would strengthen U.S. manufacturing without great shocks to the economy
     
    .

    Why would anyone want to strengthen U.S. manufacturing? That would require long-term planning and hard work and would only benefit ordinary people, who don't count. And the benefits would be very long term. What matters is lots of short-term benefits (to win elections) and short-term profits (to help those who are really suffering, like billionaires and bankers and mega-corporations).

    We need to party like there's no tomorrow because tomorrow might never happen. We can all have free money now.

    Replies: @Rosie

    , @Audacious Epigone
    @V. K. Ovelund

    The oligarchy isn't going to allow anything happen that is bad for equities. The corptocracy gets to be the Good Guys by putting out rainbow flags, conducting racial sensitivity seminars, and paying peanuts to organizations like BLM. In return they get control of the monetary system. These last six months have been very good for them.

  8. America’s and the Dollar’s Minsky Moment might be just around the corner. Systems are stable until they aren’t.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @JL
    @The Alarmist

    Why is it right around the corner, why does a Minsky Moment even have to happen at all? Deflationary tailwinds are so huge that even massive money printing can't stop them, only slow them down. I see Japan as the future for the US, indeed, all developed economies. So, increasing debt, an overpriced currency and persistent, unbeatable deflation.

    There will be speculative bubbles blown and popped, like the Japanese stock and real estate markets, but this won't destroy the economy. Look at a long term chart of JGBs, there's a reason that shorting them is called the widow-maker trade.

    There are certainly threats to USD hegemony, but I think they are more political and geopolitical than economic and financial. If the US can keep it together on the home front, and avoid a military humiliation (like getting a CSG destroyed, at which point the USD would be the least of our worries), then I don't see why this system can't continue for decades.

  9. As another blogger often says: Hug your gold coins!

  10. @V. K. Ovelund

    ... I say we see if the dollar really is impervious. If it is, or at any rate its destruction is decades down the road as many here maintain, forget raising rates to call in fire on our location. Open up the cash cannons and let them rip....
     
    I cannot tell how facetious, so let me play the straight man.

    Cash cannons would not end well, I don't think. What ever happened to the more moderate idea that the U.S. negotiate a gradual transfer, staged over a period of a few decades, of international transactions from the dollar to Special Drawing Rights (SDR)? That's a win for the U.S.—and while it might make U.S. stocks a drab investment for a long time, it would strengthen U.S. manufacturing without great shocks to the economy.

    (Then we need an immigration moratorium to make U.S. real estate a drab investment for a long time; but that's another topic.)

    Not an economist, I do not pretend to understand such things well, but cash cannons seem dramatic. Besides, we tried UBI this year, did we not? Neat idea. The result was nationwide riots.

    Replies: @iffen, @dfordoom, @Audacious Epigone

    Besides, we tried UBI this year, did we not? Neat idea. The result was nationwide riots.

    You should write for the MSM. Your conclusions and facts bob along together without any casual connections.

    • Replies: @V. K. Ovelund
    @iffen


    Your conclusions and facts bob along together without any casual connections.
     
    I've a bad habit often of writing too long, so (emulating your practice) was trying to be brief. Pardon. Is there a particular connection you would like me to make? I'd do my best to make it.
    , @V. K. Ovelund
    @iffen

    Oh, I see what you were asking. Your correction is accepted: one merely suspects that the stimulus money materially provoked the riots. The suspicion is based on nothing more than circumstances and a rough sense of human nature.

    I lack proof.

    Do you suspect that the stimulus money did not materially provoke the riots?

    Replies: @iffen, @botazefa

  11. @V. K. Ovelund

    ... I say we see if the dollar really is impervious. If it is, or at any rate its destruction is decades down the road as many here maintain, forget raising rates to call in fire on our location. Open up the cash cannons and let them rip....
     
    I cannot tell how facetious, so let me play the straight man.

    Cash cannons would not end well, I don't think. What ever happened to the more moderate idea that the U.S. negotiate a gradual transfer, staged over a period of a few decades, of international transactions from the dollar to Special Drawing Rights (SDR)? That's a win for the U.S.—and while it might make U.S. stocks a drab investment for a long time, it would strengthen U.S. manufacturing without great shocks to the economy.

    (Then we need an immigration moratorium to make U.S. real estate a drab investment for a long time; but that's another topic.)

    Not an economist, I do not pretend to understand such things well, but cash cannons seem dramatic. Besides, we tried UBI this year, did we not? Neat idea. The result was nationwide riots.

    Replies: @iffen, @dfordoom, @Audacious Epigone

    Cash cannons would not end well, I don’t think.

    Nobody cares about the long term.

    What ever happened to the more moderate idea that the U.S. negotiate a gradual transfer, staged over a period of a few decades, of international transactions from the dollar to Special Drawing Rights (SDR)? That’s a win for the U.S.—and while it might make U.S. stocks a drab investment for a long time, it would strengthen U.S. manufacturing without great shocks to the economy

    .

    Why would anyone want to strengthen U.S. manufacturing? That would require long-term planning and hard work and would only benefit ordinary people, who don’t count. And the benefits would be very long term. What matters is lots of short-term benefits (to win elections) and short-term profits (to help those who are really suffering, like billionaires and bankers and mega-corporations).

    We need to party like there’s no tomorrow because tomorrow might never happen. We can all have free money now.

    • Agree: TG
    • LOL: Yahya K.
    • Replies: @Rosie
    @dfordoom


    That would require long-term planning and hard work and would only benefit ordinary people, who don’t count.
     
    I know the elites see it that way, but I'm not convinced this is true. Henry Ford didn't think so. National capitalism worked fine for the elites, and was more sustainable. The elites we have now just don't care about sustainability. They'll loot the economy for all its worth and then move on to the next host.

    I think the party is starting to wind down for labor arbitrage in American retail. Chinese manufacturers are increasingly selling their products under their own brands, cutting out the middleman.

    I'm still not seeing any signs of inflation, though. I recently completed my annual Fall handbag purchase. It's a big deal, kind of like a New Year's ritual. You have to think about what your hustle is going to look like for the next year and choose the right bag for that. The choices get better, cheaper, and more varied every year. I'm spending half what I did even 10 years ago. A quality bag is a semidurable good, and I guess it's one of the few really profitable markets in fashion anymore.

    Replies: @dfordoom

  12. @MBlanc46
    I’ve got another ten or twelve years. Things are going to be bad enough as it is. Can you please hold off playing chicken with the American economy until I’ve checked out?

    Replies: @Brian Reilly, @Supply and Demand

    MBlanc, That attitude is a prime contributing factor of the mess we are in the midst of. It is shared by many tens of millions of otherwise decent people. All over the country people who know better just say and vote for getting theirs while the getting is good, and the Hell with things after that person is dead. “Just let me get mine!!”. When Madoff blew up, people who knew better, and had gone with the scam for years were saying the same thing.

    So Joe the government worker has to get his juiced pension, Mary the banker needs easy money to lend and make a buck on, and Tom the social worker (unemployed) needs jobless “pay” even though he has no family to provide for, and won’t move for work.

    Yep, MBlanc, just play that string out for another 10 years, then burn the whole shithouse gown. Nice. Glad to see you care.

    • Agree: V. K. Ovelund
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Brian Reilly

    I've read Mr. Blanc's comments for some years now. You are taking his comment here completely wrong. How could a guy reading (and writing under) Steve Sailer, Audacious Epigone, maybe Paul Kersey? on unz.com and an avid Peak Stupidity reader and commenter be the guy that only cares about "getting his"?

    Mr. Blanc just sees the cultural, political, and financial destruction going on and would rather not see it all the way through. Some of us have seen America as it was. We find it painful to even see what's become of it. He's not in quite the shape to fight it out on the streets (just guessing Mr. Blanc!), and I'm not in a great position on that either due to family.

    You may be a new commenter or reader, Brian, so I understand where you're coming from. I have been on here almost 4 years so I kind of know who's about what, of the commenters.

    Replies: @Jus' Sayin'..., @MBlanc46, @Brian Reilly

  13. @iffen
    @V. K. Ovelund

    Besides, we tried UBI this year, did we not? Neat idea. The result was nationwide riots.

    You should write for the MSM. Your conclusions and facts bob along together without any casual connections.

    Replies: @V. K. Ovelund, @V. K. Ovelund

    Your conclusions and facts bob along together without any casual connections.

    I’ve a bad habit often of writing too long, so (emulating your practice) was trying to be brief. Pardon. Is there a particular connection you would like me to make? I’d do my best to make it.

  14. @iffen
    @V. K. Ovelund

    Besides, we tried UBI this year, did we not? Neat idea. The result was nationwide riots.

    You should write for the MSM. Your conclusions and facts bob along together without any casual connections.

    Replies: @V. K. Ovelund, @V. K. Ovelund

    Oh, I see what you were asking. Your correction is accepted: one merely suspects that the stimulus money materially provoked the riots. The suspicion is based on nothing more than circumstances and a rough sense of human nature.

    I lack proof.

    Do you suspect that the stimulus money did not materially provoke the riots?

    • Replies: @iffen
    @V. K. Ovelund

    Do you suspect that the stimulus money did not materially provoke the riots?

    I suspect that the stimulus money had no more to do with the riots than did the phase of the moon.

    Replies: @Jus' Sayin'...

    , @botazefa
    @V. K. Ovelund

    I share your suspicion. covid lockdowns caused low pay service workers (mostly) to lose paying work.

    Same workers, now unemployed, are likely younger on average.

    Pay 'em $2400/mo (equiv to $15/hr) not to work. Probably that's more than they earned working, especially if they elected not to have income tax withheld.

    Youngsters tend to be more liberal. They tend to be more mobile. They are more active on social media. They are more gullible, lacking wisdom.

    Rioting/looting was not done by Republicans.

    We may lack proof, but the circumstantial evidence that the $2400/mo unemployment payout enabled the widespread rioting, looting, and protesting seems pretty strong to me:

    1. Younger
    2. Paid more not to work
    3. Free time
    4. higher mobility
    5. easily manipulated by social media
    6. liberal leaning
    7. poor impulse control of lesser IQ

    The above is the union of characteristics of rioters/looters and a large portion of those receiving the $2400/mo

  15. @Ash Williams
    DXY down 10%? Pfft. Before the USD goes tits up, all the other currencies have to go first.

    No, the EUR won't work (tons of debt/regs, no common debt between the nations), no the CHF won't work, it's too small for the world to hide in, no the RMB won't work, China has it's own debt problem (it's all off the cooked books)...

    It's the cleanest dirty shirt.

    Replies: @A123, @AnotherDad, @Audacious Epigone

    No, the EUR won’t work (tons of debt/regs, no common debt between the nations), no the CHF won’t work, it’s too small for the world to hide in, no the RMB won’t work, China has it’s own debt problem (it’s all off the cooked books)…

    You are correct.

    I have made this point in prior discussions. There is no credible replacement for the USD.

    Commodities, such as Gold, are also a terrible choice. There are huge costs associated with physical storage. Plus, Gold foil wrapped tungsten bars make the “money supply” unknowable. One of the reasons why the RMB is struggling is the number of major Chinese banks that have accepted fake gold as collateral. For example: (1)

    The city of Wuhan, China, is hitting the headlines again – this time as the place of origin for what could be one of the largest gold counterfeiting scams in recent times.

    According to multiple industry reports published this week, the Wuhan-based, NASDAQ-listed Kingold Jewelry issued 83 tonnes of alleged gold — valued at $4.2 billion and the equivalent to 22 percent of the country’s gold — as collateral to obtain loans from at least 14 Chinese money lenders and trust banks.

    Except the “gold” in the bars is suspected of being gilded copper.

    “This is hardly surprising; most of the fakes we see in our business are coming out of China,” Michael Wittmeyer, a gold expert for JMBullion.com. “There are replica products of what we sell online, and while people pay good money, they are essentially worthless.”

    Until a credible replacement is available, the USD will continue us to be the global reserve currency.

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://www.foxnews.com/us/wuhan-company-now-at-the-center-of-one-of-the-biggest-fake-gold-scandals

    • Replies: @Ash Williams
    @A123


    Until a credible replacement is available, the USD will continue us to be the global reserve currency.
     
    Agree, at least as long as the USD remains the least corrupt of the bunch.

    That said, there could come a period of where PMs, Bitcoin, & other fungibles become "money good". In effect no reserve currency, just assets that are used as collateral and occasionally changing hands. Awkward (not nearly so much in the case of Bitcoin), but doable.

    Not good for global trade, but IMO we could all use a lot more Autarky.

    Side note: I find it hard to imagine a bank would take delivery of millions/billions in gold w/o spending few $100k on precious metals analyzers.
    , @The Wild Geese Howard
    @A123


    Until a credible replacement is available, the USD will continue us to be the global reserve currency.
     
    Remember when they used to talk about the BRICS basket of currencies as the reserve currency replacement for the USD?

    Look at the USD appreciate vs the South African Rand (ZAR) over 10 years:

    https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=ZAR&view=10Y

    Or the Brazilian Real (BRL):

    https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=BRL&view=10Y

    Perhaps the Indian Rupee (INR) fared better:

    https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=INR&view=10Y

    Er, no. How about our Russia bros?

    https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=10Y

    Natch. Chinese yuan renminbi (CNY) then?

    https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=CNY&view=10Y

    Essentially a dead heat, even after 40+ years of selling prime US industrial capacity and intellectual property to China so our oligarchs could get rich.
    , @Audacious Epigone
    @A123

    Okay but there is a major political 'problem' with that analysis. If the dollar is essentially unbreakable, why not conjure a bunch of it up for people? There is an obvious electoral advantage in doing so for no cost, isn't there?

  16. @Brian Reilly
    @MBlanc46

    MBlanc, That attitude is a prime contributing factor of the mess we are in the midst of. It is shared by many tens of millions of otherwise decent people. All over the country people who know better just say and vote for getting theirs while the getting is good, and the Hell with things after that person is dead. "Just let me get mine!!". When Madoff blew up, people who knew better, and had gone with the scam for years were saying the same thing.

    So Joe the government worker has to get his juiced pension, Mary the banker needs easy money to lend and make a buck on, and Tom the social worker (unemployed) needs jobless "pay" even though he has no family to provide for, and won't move for work.

    Yep, MBlanc, just play that string out for another 10 years, then burn the whole shithouse gown. Nice. Glad to see you care.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    I’ve read Mr. Blanc’s comments for some years now. You are taking his comment here completely wrong. How could a guy reading (and writing under) Steve Sailer, Audacious Epigone, maybe Paul Kersey? on unz.com and an avid Peak Stupidity reader and commenter be the guy that only cares about “getting his”?

    Mr. Blanc just sees the cultural, political, and financial destruction going on and would rather not see it all the way through. Some of us have seen America as it was. We find it painful to even see what’s become of it. He’s not in quite the shape to fight it out on the streets (just guessing Mr. Blanc!), and I’m not in a great position on that either due to family.

    You may be a new commenter or reader, Brian, so I understand where you’re coming from. I have been on here almost 4 years so I kind of know who’s about what, of the commenters.

    • Replies: @Jus' Sayin'...
    @Achmed E. Newman

    I'd just add that people like Mr. Blanc, you, I, and many others have seen the coming crisis coming for decades. We've been ignored and we continue to be ignored. There is nothing further we can do to prevent the eventual crash of the dollar. There is nothing further we can do to prevent, slow down, or mitigate the ongoing collapse of US society. Therefore, it's eminently reasonable for us now to retire from our past futile endeavors and collect as many benefits as we can from the current situation before the mutually sustaining US dollar and US evil empire go down the tubes together.

    Replies: @Audacious Epigone

    , @MBlanc46
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Thanks, A.E.

    , @Brian Reilly
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Achmed, The operative phrase there is "...otherwise decent...". An old person's (man? Do not know) fear of discomfort isn't supposed to trump staying on a principled path for the sake of oneself, and one's Posterity. When fear of discomfort, especially the fear of a person who has likely (not certain) lead a physically comfortable life, draws all attention from the first principles, nothing good can be said about it. So you and MBlanc can sit down with your kids, grand kids, that nice couple next door, and express your thoughts. Tell them you are getting yours, and good luck to them. You really do wish them well.

    That is why this formerly great nation is going to Hell in a pushcart. When good men (like Mblanc, presumably) do nothing, that is all Evil needs to prevail. We don't deserve liberty or comfort, and I will not be surprised to see them disappear for a while.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  17. @V. K. Ovelund
    @iffen

    Oh, I see what you were asking. Your correction is accepted: one merely suspects that the stimulus money materially provoked the riots. The suspicion is based on nothing more than circumstances and a rough sense of human nature.

    I lack proof.

    Do you suspect that the stimulus money did not materially provoke the riots?

    Replies: @iffen, @botazefa

    Do you suspect that the stimulus money did not materially provoke the riots?

    I suspect that the stimulus money had no more to do with the riots than did the phase of the moon.

    • Replies: @Jus' Sayin'...
    @iffen

    The riots were a predictable consequence of the Covid-19 lockdown, the dismal economic prospects of younger Americans, and chaos-generating groundwork by George Soros, starting about two decades ago. Back in late March and early April, I was predicting that the USA would experience large and widespread urban riots starting in late May or early June as the weather warmed up.

    Beyond that, from a broader prospective, the current unrest is part of a cyclical pattern with a period of about a century, which has existed in modernized societies, at least since the Industrial Revolution, and which results from a complex interplay of demographic, economic, social, and political factors. Peter Turchin developed a model of these phenomena, which over a decade ago predicted that in 2020 the USA would experience a major upsurge in domestic violence and political disorder and that this presaged several decades of social and political upheaval along with major increases in economic distress.

    Replies: @iffen

  18. @V. K. Ovelund
    @iffen

    Oh, I see what you were asking. Your correction is accepted: one merely suspects that the stimulus money materially provoked the riots. The suspicion is based on nothing more than circumstances and a rough sense of human nature.

    I lack proof.

    Do you suspect that the stimulus money did not materially provoke the riots?

    Replies: @iffen, @botazefa

    I share your suspicion. covid lockdowns caused low pay service workers (mostly) to lose paying work.

    Same workers, now unemployed, are likely younger on average.

    Pay ’em $2400/mo (equiv to $15/hr) not to work. Probably that’s more than they earned working, especially if they elected not to have income tax withheld.

    Youngsters tend to be more liberal. They tend to be more mobile. They are more active on social media. They are more gullible, lacking wisdom.

    Rioting/looting was not done by Republicans.

    We may lack proof, but the circumstantial evidence that the $2400/mo unemployment payout enabled the widespread rioting, looting, and protesting seems pretty strong to me:

    1. Younger
    2. Paid more not to work
    3. Free time
    4. higher mobility
    5. easily manipulated by social media
    6. liberal leaning
    7. poor impulse control of lesser IQ

    The above is the union of characteristics of rioters/looters and a large portion of those receiving the $2400/mo

    • Thanks: V. K. Ovelund
  19. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Brian Reilly

    I've read Mr. Blanc's comments for some years now. You are taking his comment here completely wrong. How could a guy reading (and writing under) Steve Sailer, Audacious Epigone, maybe Paul Kersey? on unz.com and an avid Peak Stupidity reader and commenter be the guy that only cares about "getting his"?

    Mr. Blanc just sees the cultural, political, and financial destruction going on and would rather not see it all the way through. Some of us have seen America as it was. We find it painful to even see what's become of it. He's not in quite the shape to fight it out on the streets (just guessing Mr. Blanc!), and I'm not in a great position on that either due to family.

    You may be a new commenter or reader, Brian, so I understand where you're coming from. I have been on here almost 4 years so I kind of know who's about what, of the commenters.

    Replies: @Jus' Sayin'..., @MBlanc46, @Brian Reilly

    I’d just add that people like Mr. Blanc, you, I, and many others have seen the coming crisis coming for decades. We’ve been ignored and we continue to be ignored. There is nothing further we can do to prevent the eventual crash of the dollar. There is nothing further we can do to prevent, slow down, or mitigate the ongoing collapse of US society. Therefore, it’s eminently reasonable for us now to retire from our past futile endeavors and collect as many benefits as we can from the current situation before the mutually sustaining US dollar and US evil empire go down the tubes together.

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    @Jus' Sayin'...

    Derision about predicting nine of the last two recessions being what it is, your admonishments were appreciated even though I didn't see the end of the system being near until late 2018 when it became clear that the Fed was out of options. After being beaten back multiple times in the past, the beast has reappeared. This time, though, the Fed is completely out of ammo before the fight even begins.

  20. @iffen
    @V. K. Ovelund

    Do you suspect that the stimulus money did not materially provoke the riots?

    I suspect that the stimulus money had no more to do with the riots than did the phase of the moon.

    Replies: @Jus' Sayin'...

    The riots were a predictable consequence of the Covid-19 lockdown, the dismal economic prospects of younger Americans, and chaos-generating groundwork by George Soros, starting about two decades ago. Back in late March and early April, I was predicting that the USA would experience large and widespread urban riots starting in late May or early June as the weather warmed up.

    Beyond that, from a broader prospective, the current unrest is part of a cyclical pattern with a period of about a century, which has existed in modernized societies, at least since the Industrial Revolution, and which results from a complex interplay of demographic, economic, social, and political factors. Peter Turchin developed a model of these phenomena, which over a decade ago predicted that in 2020 the USA would experience a major upsurge in domestic violence and political disorder and that this presaged several decades of social and political upheaval along with major increases in economic distress.

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @iffen
    @Jus' Sayin'...

    Peter Turchin developed a model of these phenomena,

    I have read quite a bit of his work and find it very interesting and somewhat compelling, but remain unconvinced. People "want to see" cycles and patterns. It comes from thousands of years of observing the heavens and looking for casual factors in physical phenomena. Human flourishing and complexity of society is linear, albeit with some detours and wrong turns here and there.

  21. Gold is up about 20% in the last year which is substantial but given all that has happened, I am surprised it isn’t more. CPI is up just 1.4% year-over-year.

    The DXY is down about 5% year over year, but it seems to be squarely in the middle of its 30 year average.

    I agree with you, AE, that we are seeing some alarming things but the dollar has been on a slow, controlled burn for the last 100 years. We’ve had a slow inflation for generations. US GDP is down 4% y/y but Europe is down closer to 10% y/y. I am not seeing shortages of things or spikes in prices. Where food spiked a bit earlier in the year, it seems to have settled back down.

    The economy is a crap sandwich for many and a few giga-companies have most of the profits. But some would argue that this is a good thing. If tons of people are working very hard for crap wages doesn’t that help the empire?

    People need help and they aren’t getting it. Isn’t that great for the national bottom line?

    You talk about how the Fed is conjuring out of thin air — and if that worked, why don’t they just do that endlessly. Well they aren’t doing it endlessly. It seems gold went to $2000, they stopped printing, and it settled back down to $1900.

    I mean, are we really trashing the dollar worse than we always have, a little bit at a time, over the last 100 years?

    Biden is campaigning on a big tax INCREASE, right? I hate Biden because he slurs heritage America with every sentence and he is apparently up to his eyeballs in pay-for-play corruption but that sounds like fiscal responsibility. Clinton actually got to a surplus with tax increases.

    Maybe Democrats are better positioned to deliver austerity because they control the narrative. Trump is tap dancing as fast as he can for blacks and for what? Dems can deliver a shit sandwich of austerity for blacks and the poor and have the media sell it. Trump has actually delivered pay increases and low unemployment and for what?

    • Replies: @Not my economy
    @Dan

    >Maybe Democrats are better positioned to deliver austerity

    Woke austerity
    Green austerity
    Screenshot this

    , @Audacious Epigone
    @Dan

    Corporate tax increases will crash the equity markets. Interest rate increases will crash the equity markets. An extended pause in monetary stimulus will crash the equity markets. Maybe things can keep getting worse forever--we are currently experiencing record trade deficits and a record percentage of the federal budget being debt-financed--and if so, let's make the most of it.

  22. @dfordoom
    @V. K. Ovelund


    Cash cannons would not end well, I don’t think.

     

    Nobody cares about the long term.

    What ever happened to the more moderate idea that the U.S. negotiate a gradual transfer, staged over a period of a few decades, of international transactions from the dollar to Special Drawing Rights (SDR)? That’s a win for the U.S.—and while it might make U.S. stocks a drab investment for a long time, it would strengthen U.S. manufacturing without great shocks to the economy
     
    .

    Why would anyone want to strengthen U.S. manufacturing? That would require long-term planning and hard work and would only benefit ordinary people, who don't count. And the benefits would be very long term. What matters is lots of short-term benefits (to win elections) and short-term profits (to help those who are really suffering, like billionaires and bankers and mega-corporations).

    We need to party like there's no tomorrow because tomorrow might never happen. We can all have free money now.

    Replies: @Rosie

    That would require long-term planning and hard work and would only benefit ordinary people, who don’t count.

    I know the elites see it that way, but I’m not convinced this is true. Henry Ford didn’t think so. National capitalism worked fine for the elites, and was more sustainable. The elites we have now just don’t care about sustainability. They’ll loot the economy for all its worth and then move on to the next host.

    I think the party is starting to wind down for labor arbitrage in American retail. Chinese manufacturers are increasingly selling their products under their own brands, cutting out the middleman.

    I’m still not seeing any signs of inflation, though. I recently completed my annual Fall handbag purchase. It’s a big deal, kind of like a New Year’s ritual. You have to think about what your hustle is going to look like for the next year and choose the right bag for that. The choices get better, cheaper, and more varied every year. I’m spending half what I did even 10 years ago. A quality bag is a semidurable good, and I guess it’s one of the few really profitable markets in fashion anymore.

    • Replies: @dfordoom
    @Rosie


    I know the elites see it that way, but I’m not convinced this is true. Henry Ford didn’t think so. National capitalism worked fine for the elites, and was more sustainable. The elites we have now just don’t care about sustainability. They’ll loot the economy for all its worth and then move on to the next host.
     
    The best way to make the elites behave better is to make them feel fear. From the end of the 19th century to around the early 1960s our elites were terrified there'd be a socialist revolution and that they'd be lined up against a wall and shot. As a result they made an effort to ameliorate the sufferings of the working class.

    There's nothing like fear to give the elites a sense of social responsibility.

    The elites no longer feel that fear because in the 1960s the Economic Left (which was a genuine threat to the elites) was replaced by the New Left (which was elite-friendly and elite-funded and controlled).
  23. Mr Epigone says:

    Charles Pewitt on how by playing with the dollar, the powers that be are playing with fire:

    I say:

    Monetary policy used to be a front-and-center political question in the USA going back to Andrew Jackson and the Second Bank of the United States but now the Ruling Class of the American Empire has silenced and squashed all questions about the privately-controlled Federal Reserve Bank and Fed chairmen are mostly thrown batting practice questions at congressional testimony and the corporate propaganda apparatus mostly just does public relations boosterism for the central bank.

    The Wall Street Journal is notorious for being something of a mouth piece for the Fed and the WSJ only nibbles around the edges when dealing with who benefits from all the monetary extremism engaged in by the Fed.

    The greedy and treasonous Ruling Class of the American Empire is deliberately using this BAT SOUP FEVER globaloney as a pretext to clam rake more loot out of the financialization of the USA.

    I wrote this in March of 2020 about the monetary extremism keeping some Americans fat and happy and stuffed to the rafters with ill-gotten gains provided by the monetary machinations of the Fed:

    The asset bubbles in stocks and bonds and real estate — commercial and residential — must be allowed to undergo PRICE DISCOVERY unhindered by the anti-capitalist machinations of the globalized central banker shysters.

    This is the third frigging asset bubble, starting in the 1990s, that the plutocrat- and privately-controlled Federal Reserve Bank has inflated using monetary extremism — low or zero or negative interest rates, asset purchases, quantitative easing, dollar swaps, direct central bank purchases of sovereign and corporate debt, balance sheet ballooning, bailouts…etc. — and enough is enough, DAMMIT!

    A lot of sonsofabitches are saying they want this thing that is so-called “capitalism” and I say give it to ’em with both barrels. Stop the monetary extremism from the Fed and you greedy stupid boneheads will get your damn “capitalism.”

    There is no “capitalism,” you damn dirty ape fools, there is only globalized central banker shysterism. You can’t have any damn thing called “capitalism” when you have a debt-based fiat currency system. The greedy and immoral and evil ones will always use the electronics of an electronic debt-based fiat currency system to their advantage and they don’t give a frigging damn about what is in the best interests of the nation as a whole.

    The hostile and evil and immoral JEW/WASP ruling class of the American Empire is actively engaged in attacking and destroying the USA using globalization and fiancialization and mass legal immigration and mass illegal immigration and globalized trade deal scams and monetary policy and foreign policy and tax policy as a political weapon to kill the historic American nation and to attack and destroy the European Christian ancestral core of the USA.

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/taleb-on-why-panic-is-good/#comment-3774628

  24. @A123
    @Ash Williams


    No, the EUR won’t work (tons of debt/regs, no common debt between the nations), no the CHF won’t work, it’s too small for the world to hide in, no the RMB won’t work, China has it’s own debt problem (it’s all off the cooked books)…
     
    You are correct.

    I have made this point in prior discussions. There is no credible replacement for the USD.

    Commodities, such as Gold, are also a terrible choice. There are huge costs associated with physical storage. Plus, Gold foil wrapped tungsten bars make the "money supply" unknowable. One of the reasons why the RMB is struggling is the number of major Chinese banks that have accepted fake gold as collateral. For example: (1)

    The city of Wuhan, China, is hitting the headlines again – this time as the place of origin for what could be one of the largest gold counterfeiting scams in recent times.

    According to multiple industry reports published this week, the Wuhan-based, NASDAQ-listed Kingold Jewelry issued 83 tonnes of alleged gold -- valued at $4.2 billion and the equivalent to 22 percent of the country's gold -- as collateral to obtain loans from at least 14 Chinese money lenders and trust banks.

    Except the "gold" in the bars is suspected of being gilded copper.

    "This is hardly surprising; most of the fakes we see in our business are coming out of China," Michael Wittmeyer, a gold expert for JMBullion.com. "There are replica products of what we sell online, and while people pay good money, they are essentially worthless."
     
    Until a credible replacement is available, the USD will continue us to be the global reserve currency.

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://www.foxnews.com/us/wuhan-company-now-at-the-center-of-one-of-the-biggest-fake-gold-scandals

    Replies: @Ash Williams, @The Wild Geese Howard, @Audacious Epigone

    Until a credible replacement is available, the USD will continue us to be the global reserve currency.

    Agree, at least as long as the USD remains the least corrupt of the bunch.

    That said, there could come a period of where PMs, Bitcoin, & other fungibles become “money good”. In effect no reserve currency, just assets that are used as collateral and occasionally changing hands. Awkward (not nearly so much in the case of Bitcoin), but doable.

    Not good for global trade, but IMO we could all use a lot more Autarky.

    Side note: I find it hard to imagine a bank would take delivery of millions/billions in gold w/o spending few $100k on precious metals analyzers.

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
  25. Side note: I find it hard to imagine a bank would take delivery of millions/billions in gold w/o spending few $100k on precious metals analyzers.

    We are talking about Chinese banks. It seems likely that bank staff knew they were being defrauded. However, in true Orwellian fashion, they were unable to object.

    Obeying the CCP is mandatory.

    PEACE 😇

  26. @Ash Williams
    DXY down 10%? Pfft. Before the USD goes tits up, all the other currencies have to go first.

    No, the EUR won't work (tons of debt/regs, no common debt between the nations), no the CHF won't work, it's too small for the world to hide in, no the RMB won't work, China has it's own debt problem (it's all off the cooked books)...

    It's the cleanest dirty shirt.

    Replies: @A123, @AnotherDad, @Audacious Epigone

    It’s the cleanest dirty shirt.

    Exactly. Thank you Ash.

    I don’t know why this simple common sense continues to elude so many people. There’s a bunch of folks commenting her on Unz, who continually predict disaster. (And i’ve lost some money myself expecting more inflation than we’ve had.)

    But the bottom line is the US dollar looks ridiculous–especially given our “nation of immigrants” demographic disaster–…. except that everyone else looks worse!

    Europe? Even worse native fertility. Even worse immigration in terms of breaking social cohesion. Not to mention all the issues around the Euro itself.

    China? Well they are clearly the long term bet. One assumes they–not confused with minoritarian nonsense–will eventually work out a plan (incentives) to move toward eugenic fertility and a gentile deflation of the population to a reasonable number or ever more highly productive Chinese. But what allows them to do that is the Chicom dictatorship. Do you trust anything regarding them? Would you park money there and have any confidence that your asset is safe and you can dispose of it where and when you want.

    Anybody else? Sure there are some better managed places, but not capable of being the world’s reserve currency.

    That’s the deal. The US dollar is still the world’s reserve currency *despite* the incredible mismanagement of both the dollar–and more importantly–the nation. It still wins, because while it sucks … so do all the alternatives!

    • Thanks: Mark G., Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @Ash Williams
    @AnotherDad


    Exactly. Thank you Ash.
     
    My pleasure.

    I don’t know why this simple common sense continues to elude so many people. There’s a bunch of folks commenting her on Unz, who continually predict disaster. (And i’ve lost some money myself expecting more inflation than we’ve had.)
     
    To quote Vox Day: "MPAI (Most People are Idiots). Even the demonstrably bright ones - because the totality of the system is nigh-impossible to grasp by any single person, and every aspect is diabolically obfuscated in very credible fashion to obscure it's true purpose and goals. But history provides some insight, human nature a bit more, and learning to read between the lines/source good information allows you to start to grasp what's really going on.

    But the bottom line is the US dollar looks ridiculous–especially given our “nation of immigrants” demographic disaster–…. except that everyone else looks worse!

    Europe? Even worse native fertility. Even worse immigration in terms of breaking social cohesion. Not to mention all the issues around the Euro itself.

    China? Well they are clearly the long term bet. One assumes they–not confused with minoritarian nonsense–will eventually work out a plan (incentives) to move toward eugenic fertility and a gentile deflation of the population to a reasonable number or ever more highly productive Chinese. But what allows them to do that is the Chicom dictatorship. Do you trust anything regarding them? Would you park money there and have any confidence that your asset is safe and you can dispose of it where and when you want.

    Anybody else? Sure there are some better managed places, but not capable of being the world’s reserve currency.

    That’s the deal. The US dollar is still the world’s reserve currency *despite* the incredible mismanagement of both the dollar–and more importantly–the nation. It still wins, because while it sucks … so do all the alternatives!
     

    Agree, it will be for some time. But it will need another devaluation against all other assets. "The Great Reset" is an attempt to grab this power from the USA, there's talk of a "New Bretton Woods", which will probably be a continuation of the current systems (with reforms). I expect the USD to take a hit, but it will be a process, not an event.

    Empires collapse from the periphery inward.

    But, every empire also goes through an attempted reform. I think Trump is that reformer. The bad news is each empire went on for at least three generations past the reform attempt (but not much longer, with the exception of the Roman Empire). The good news is it won't be as sudden, chaotic, and dangerous as many expect, and the clever, observant ones won't be surprised and will be in much better shape than the rest.

    ...But what the hell do I know?

    DYOR

  27. @MBlanc46
    I’ve got another ten or twelve years. Things are going to be bad enough as it is. Can you please hold off playing chicken with the American economy until I’ve checked out?

    Replies: @Brian Reilly, @Supply and Demand

    The eternal boomer, not once thinking about the future he leaves the world with, strikes again.

    • Replies: @MBlanc46
    @Supply and Demand

    You lead, pal.

  28. @Dan
    Gold is up about 20% in the last year which is substantial but given all that has happened, I am surprised it isn't more. CPI is up just 1.4% year-over-year.

    The DXY is down about 5% year over year, but it seems to be squarely in the middle of its 30 year average.

    I agree with you, AE, that we are seeing some alarming things but the dollar has been on a slow, controlled burn for the last 100 years. We've had a slow inflation for generations. US GDP is down 4% y/y but Europe is down closer to 10% y/y. I am not seeing shortages of things or spikes in prices. Where food spiked a bit earlier in the year, it seems to have settled back down.

    The economy is a crap sandwich for many and a few giga-companies have most of the profits. But some would argue that this is a good thing. If tons of people are working very hard for crap wages doesn't that help the empire?

    People need help and they aren't getting it. Isn't that great for the national bottom line?

    You talk about how the Fed is conjuring out of thin air -- and if that worked, why don't they just do that endlessly. Well they aren't doing it endlessly. It seems gold went to $2000, they stopped printing, and it settled back down to $1900.

    I mean, are we really trashing the dollar worse than we always have, a little bit at a time, over the last 100 years?

    Biden is campaigning on a big tax INCREASE, right? I hate Biden because he slurs heritage America with every sentence and he is apparently up to his eyeballs in pay-for-play corruption but that sounds like fiscal responsibility. Clinton actually got to a surplus with tax increases.

    Maybe Democrats are better positioned to deliver austerity because they control the narrative. Trump is tap dancing as fast as he can for blacks and for what? Dems can deliver a shit sandwich of austerity for blacks and the poor and have the media sell it. Trump has actually delivered pay increases and low unemployment and for what?

    Replies: @Not my economy, @Audacious Epigone

    >Maybe Democrats are better positioned to deliver austerity

    Woke austerity
    Green austerity
    Screenshot this

  29. @JL
    As the famous maxim goes, the markets can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    As the famous maxim goes, the markets can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.

    Rule #1) Never fight the Fed

    Rule #2) BTFD

  30. @A123
    @Ash Williams


    No, the EUR won’t work (tons of debt/regs, no common debt between the nations), no the CHF won’t work, it’s too small for the world to hide in, no the RMB won’t work, China has it’s own debt problem (it’s all off the cooked books)…
     
    You are correct.

    I have made this point in prior discussions. There is no credible replacement for the USD.

    Commodities, such as Gold, are also a terrible choice. There are huge costs associated with physical storage. Plus, Gold foil wrapped tungsten bars make the "money supply" unknowable. One of the reasons why the RMB is struggling is the number of major Chinese banks that have accepted fake gold as collateral. For example: (1)

    The city of Wuhan, China, is hitting the headlines again – this time as the place of origin for what could be one of the largest gold counterfeiting scams in recent times.

    According to multiple industry reports published this week, the Wuhan-based, NASDAQ-listed Kingold Jewelry issued 83 tonnes of alleged gold -- valued at $4.2 billion and the equivalent to 22 percent of the country's gold -- as collateral to obtain loans from at least 14 Chinese money lenders and trust banks.

    Except the "gold" in the bars is suspected of being gilded copper.

    "This is hardly surprising; most of the fakes we see in our business are coming out of China," Michael Wittmeyer, a gold expert for JMBullion.com. "There are replica products of what we sell online, and while people pay good money, they are essentially worthless."
     
    Until a credible replacement is available, the USD will continue us to be the global reserve currency.

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://www.foxnews.com/us/wuhan-company-now-at-the-center-of-one-of-the-biggest-fake-gold-scandals

    Replies: @Ash Williams, @The Wild Geese Howard, @Audacious Epigone

    Until a credible replacement is available, the USD will continue us to be the global reserve currency.

    Remember when they used to talk about the BRICS basket of currencies as the reserve currency replacement for the USD?

    Look at the USD appreciate vs the South African Rand (ZAR) over 10 years:

    https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=ZAR&view=10Y

    Or the Brazilian Real (BRL):

    https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=BRL&view=10Y

    Perhaps the Indian Rupee (INR) fared better:

    https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=INR&view=10Y

    Er, no. How about our Russia bros?

    https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=10Y

    Natch. Chinese yuan renminbi (CNY) then?

    https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=CNY&view=10Y

    Essentially a dead heat, even after 40+ years of selling prime US industrial capacity and intellectual property to China so our oligarchs could get rich.

  31. Indeed things are crazy.

    But as regards deficits: it is impossible for a closed society to live beyond its means. Everything that is consumed, has to have been produced. Got it?

    So back pre-1970 when the US was a functional autarky (The pre-depression Smoot Hawley tariffs get a lot of flack, but back then foreign trade was about 3% of GNP if that i.e. trivial) deficits really didn’t matter.

    Someone can’t go broke owing money to themselves, can they?

    Given that our national debt is denominated in dollars, who cares, we can stiff our foreign creditors, right? And when the US was self sufficient, it often did and it got away with it just fine.

    But. Now that we have exported our industrial capacity, at the same time that we have vastly expanded domestic demand via massive third-world immigration, we can’t survive without external supplies. So in principle yes we can stiff our foreign creditors – and they can stop shipping us stuff.

    So yes, monetary foolishness is foolishness, but never forget the bottom line of the real physical economy of real production. If the United States had significant real physical productive assets, we could at least in theory manage any lunatic financial collapse. But if we just can’t produce what we need? No amount of financial juggling or ‘austerity’ will fix that.

    John Maynard Keynes is often vilified today (though considering how well the United States did using his policies in the 1940’s and 1950’s, really?) but what is forgotten is that he always said the core of economics is physical reality. Perhaps we would do well to remember this approach.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @A123
    @TG


    Now that we have exported our industrial capacity, at the same time that we have vastly expanded domestic demand via massive third-world immigration, we can’t survive without external supplies
     
    And this points the way out of the problem:

    -- Trump's plan to bring manufacturing back
    -- Trump's plan to reduce migration
    -- Trump's plan to maintain energy independence

    Ending SJW Globalism is the answer.

    PEACE 😇
    , @V. K. Ovelund
    @TG


    But as regards deficits: it is impossible for a closed society to live beyond its means. Everything that is consumed, has to have been produced....
     
    Yours is the best macroeconomic comment of the month. The entire comment is recommended to all readers.

    When this election is over and things have quieted down, consider expanding the comment into an entire article.

    Replies: @usNthem

  32. So, AE, what the real deal? You sound like you are rooting against the dollar. Is that accurate?

    Your point is actually pretty juvenile, if I’m understanding you correctly, like a really extreme straw man.

    No one is saying printing infinite money works. Who exactly are you arguing against, then?

    Stimulus gets us through a crisis. Making sure everyone has dollars prevents a deflationary depression. These are basically economic facts.

    If they were taken to extremes, would they fail? Yeah, everybody knows that. That’s why they aren’t taken to extremes. What exactly is your point?

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    @Jedi Night

    What is the mechanism that causes things to fail when taken to the most extreme extremes that doesn't apply in the current case--which is extreme by just about every historical measure (trade deficits, debt-financing, monetary stimulus)?

  33. @TG
    Indeed things are crazy.

    But as regards deficits: it is impossible for a closed society to live beyond its means. Everything that is consumed, has to have been produced. Got it?

    So back pre-1970 when the US was a functional autarky (The pre-depression Smoot Hawley tariffs get a lot of flack, but back then foreign trade was about 3% of GNP if that i.e. trivial) deficits really didn't matter.

    Someone can't go broke owing money to themselves, can they?

    Given that our national debt is denominated in dollars, who cares, we can stiff our foreign creditors, right? And when the US was self sufficient, it often did and it got away with it just fine.

    But. Now that we have exported our industrial capacity, at the same time that we have vastly expanded domestic demand via massive third-world immigration, we can't survive without external supplies. So in principle yes we can stiff our foreign creditors - and they can stop shipping us stuff.

    So yes, monetary foolishness is foolishness, but never forget the bottom line of the real physical economy of real production. If the United States had significant real physical productive assets, we could at least in theory manage any lunatic financial collapse. But if we just can't produce what we need? No amount of financial juggling or 'austerity' will fix that.

    John Maynard Keynes is often vilified today (though considering how well the United States did using his policies in the 1940's and 1950's, really?) but what is forgotten is that he always said the core of economics is physical reality. Perhaps we would do well to remember this approach.

    Replies: @A123, @V. K. Ovelund

    Now that we have exported our industrial capacity, at the same time that we have vastly expanded domestic demand via massive third-world immigration, we can’t survive without external supplies

    And this points the way out of the problem:

    — Trump’s plan to bring manufacturing back
    — Trump’s plan to reduce migration
    — Trump’s plan to maintain energy independence

    Ending SJW Globalism is the answer.

    PEACE 😇

  34. @AnotherDad
    @Ash Williams


    It’s the cleanest dirty shirt.
     
    Exactly. Thank you Ash.

    I don't know why this simple common sense continues to elude so many people. There's a bunch of folks commenting her on Unz, who continually predict disaster. (And i've lost some money myself expecting more inflation than we've had.)

    But the bottom line is the US dollar looks ridiculous--especially given our "nation of immigrants" demographic disaster--.... except that everyone else looks worse!

    Europe? Even worse native fertility. Even worse immigration in terms of breaking social cohesion. Not to mention all the issues around the Euro itself.

    China? Well they are clearly the long term bet. One assumes they--not confused with minoritarian nonsense--will eventually work out a plan (incentives) to move toward eugenic fertility and a gentile deflation of the population to a reasonable number or ever more highly productive Chinese. But what allows them to do that is the Chicom dictatorship. Do you trust anything regarding them? Would you park money there and have any confidence that your asset is safe and you can dispose of it where and when you want.

    Anybody else? Sure there are some better managed places, but not capable of being the world's reserve currency.

    That's the deal. The US dollar is still the world's reserve currency *despite* the incredible mismanagement of both the dollar--and more importantly--the nation. It still wins, because while it sucks ... so do all the alternatives!

    Replies: @Ash Williams

    Exactly. Thank you Ash.

    My pleasure.

    I don’t know why this simple common sense continues to elude so many people. There’s a bunch of folks commenting her on Unz, who continually predict disaster. (And i’ve lost some money myself expecting more inflation than we’ve had.)

    To quote Vox Day: “MPAI (Most People are Idiots). Even the demonstrably bright ones – because the totality of the system is nigh-impossible to grasp by any single person, and every aspect is diabolically obfuscated in very credible fashion to obscure it’s true purpose and goals. But history provides some insight, human nature a bit more, and learning to read between the lines/source good information allows you to start to grasp what’s really going on.

    But the bottom line is the US dollar looks ridiculous–especially given our “nation of immigrants” demographic disaster–…. except that everyone else looks worse!

    Europe? Even worse native fertility. Even worse immigration in terms of breaking social cohesion. Not to mention all the issues around the Euro itself.

    China? Well they are clearly the long term bet. One assumes they–not confused with minoritarian nonsense–will eventually work out a plan (incentives) to move toward eugenic fertility and a gentile deflation of the population to a reasonable number or ever more highly productive Chinese. But what allows them to do that is the Chicom dictatorship. Do you trust anything regarding them? Would you park money there and have any confidence that your asset is safe and you can dispose of it where and when you want.

    Anybody else? Sure there are some better managed places, but not capable of being the world’s reserve currency.

    That’s the deal. The US dollar is still the world’s reserve currency *despite* the incredible mismanagement of both the dollar–and more importantly–the nation. It still wins, because while it sucks … so do all the alternatives!

    Agree, it will be for some time. But it will need another devaluation against all other assets. “The Great Reset” is an attempt to grab this power from the USA, there’s talk of a “New Bretton Woods”, which will probably be a continuation of the current systems (with reforms). I expect the USD to take a hit, but it will be a process, not an event.

    Empires collapse from the periphery inward.

    But, every empire also goes through an attempted reform. I think Trump is that reformer. The bad news is each empire went on for at least three generations past the reform attempt (but not much longer, with the exception of the Roman Empire). The good news is it won’t be as sudden, chaotic, and dangerous as many expect, and the clever, observant ones won’t be surprised and will be in much better shape than the rest.

    …But what the hell do I know?

    DYOR

  35. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Brian Reilly

    I've read Mr. Blanc's comments for some years now. You are taking his comment here completely wrong. How could a guy reading (and writing under) Steve Sailer, Audacious Epigone, maybe Paul Kersey? on unz.com and an avid Peak Stupidity reader and commenter be the guy that only cares about "getting his"?

    Mr. Blanc just sees the cultural, political, and financial destruction going on and would rather not see it all the way through. Some of us have seen America as it was. We find it painful to even see what's become of it. He's not in quite the shape to fight it out on the streets (just guessing Mr. Blanc!), and I'm not in a great position on that either due to family.

    You may be a new commenter or reader, Brian, so I understand where you're coming from. I have been on here almost 4 years so I kind of know who's about what, of the commenters.

    Replies: @Jus' Sayin'..., @MBlanc46, @Brian Reilly

    Thanks, A.E.

  36. @Supply and Demand
    @MBlanc46

    The eternal boomer, not once thinking about the future he leaves the world with, strikes again.

    Replies: @MBlanc46

    You lead, pal.

  37. @Rosie
    @dfordoom


    That would require long-term planning and hard work and would only benefit ordinary people, who don’t count.
     
    I know the elites see it that way, but I'm not convinced this is true. Henry Ford didn't think so. National capitalism worked fine for the elites, and was more sustainable. The elites we have now just don't care about sustainability. They'll loot the economy for all its worth and then move on to the next host.

    I think the party is starting to wind down for labor arbitrage in American retail. Chinese manufacturers are increasingly selling their products under their own brands, cutting out the middleman.

    I'm still not seeing any signs of inflation, though. I recently completed my annual Fall handbag purchase. It's a big deal, kind of like a New Year's ritual. You have to think about what your hustle is going to look like for the next year and choose the right bag for that. The choices get better, cheaper, and more varied every year. I'm spending half what I did even 10 years ago. A quality bag is a semidurable good, and I guess it's one of the few really profitable markets in fashion anymore.

    Replies: @dfordoom

    I know the elites see it that way, but I’m not convinced this is true. Henry Ford didn’t think so. National capitalism worked fine for the elites, and was more sustainable. The elites we have now just don’t care about sustainability. They’ll loot the economy for all its worth and then move on to the next host.

    The best way to make the elites behave better is to make them feel fear. From the end of the 19th century to around the early 1960s our elites were terrified there’d be a socialist revolution and that they’d be lined up against a wall and shot. As a result they made an effort to ameliorate the sufferings of the working class.

    There’s nothing like fear to give the elites a sense of social responsibility.

    The elites no longer feel that fear because in the 1960s the Economic Left (which was a genuine threat to the elites) was replaced by the New Left (which was elite-friendly and elite-funded and controlled).

  38. @Jus' Sayin'...
    @iffen

    The riots were a predictable consequence of the Covid-19 lockdown, the dismal economic prospects of younger Americans, and chaos-generating groundwork by George Soros, starting about two decades ago. Back in late March and early April, I was predicting that the USA would experience large and widespread urban riots starting in late May or early June as the weather warmed up.

    Beyond that, from a broader prospective, the current unrest is part of a cyclical pattern with a period of about a century, which has existed in modernized societies, at least since the Industrial Revolution, and which results from a complex interplay of demographic, economic, social, and political factors. Peter Turchin developed a model of these phenomena, which over a decade ago predicted that in 2020 the USA would experience a major upsurge in domestic violence and political disorder and that this presaged several decades of social and political upheaval along with major increases in economic distress.

    Replies: @iffen

    Peter Turchin developed a model of these phenomena,

    I have read quite a bit of his work and find it very interesting and somewhat compelling, but remain unconvinced. People “want to see” cycles and patterns. It comes from thousands of years of observing the heavens and looking for casual factors in physical phenomena. Human flourishing and complexity of society is linear, albeit with some detours and wrong turns here and there.

  39. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Brian Reilly

    I've read Mr. Blanc's comments for some years now. You are taking his comment here completely wrong. How could a guy reading (and writing under) Steve Sailer, Audacious Epigone, maybe Paul Kersey? on unz.com and an avid Peak Stupidity reader and commenter be the guy that only cares about "getting his"?

    Mr. Blanc just sees the cultural, political, and financial destruction going on and would rather not see it all the way through. Some of us have seen America as it was. We find it painful to even see what's become of it. He's not in quite the shape to fight it out on the streets (just guessing Mr. Blanc!), and I'm not in a great position on that either due to family.

    You may be a new commenter or reader, Brian, so I understand where you're coming from. I have been on here almost 4 years so I kind of know who's about what, of the commenters.

    Replies: @Jus' Sayin'..., @MBlanc46, @Brian Reilly

    Achmed, The operative phrase there is “…otherwise decent…”. An old person’s (man? Do not know) fear of discomfort isn’t supposed to trump staying on a principled path for the sake of oneself, and one’s Posterity. When fear of discomfort, especially the fear of a person who has likely (not certain) lead a physically comfortable life, draws all attention from the first principles, nothing good can be said about it. So you and MBlanc can sit down with your kids, grand kids, that nice couple next door, and express your thoughts. Tell them you are getting yours, and good luck to them. You really do wish them well.

    That is why this formerly great nation is going to Hell in a pushcart. When good men (like Mblanc, presumably) do nothing, that is all Evil needs to prevail. We don’t deserve liberty or comfort, and I will not be surprised to see them disappear for a while.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Brian Reilly

    What da heck makes you think that Mr. Blanc and I have been doing nothing? You don't know that. I can't speak for the guy, but besides having the Peak Stupidity blog going for 4 years (with over 1,600 posts up), I've voted L since the time right after Ronald Reagan, excepting for Trump, went to rallies here and there, and went to Trump's rally in my state in the summer of '16 with a nice humorous sign (got me some free shots of whiskey from some young guys too, and an interview with some dude who probably just deleted it...)

    I may have been keeping up with politics since before you were alive, Brian. Another thing more important than voting, rallies, and all that is that I've lived my life according to Libertarian/Constitutionalist principles, even when it's cost me in time, money, and lost jobs. "Ya' gotta know when to tell people to fuck off" is my motto.

    I've never really been a guy to go all out to "get mine". I'm doing OK with my work now, but it was a long road to get there (not gonna explain for anon. reasons). Matter of fact, I've never gotten any government benefits. Even when I was laid off, turned out for a while, I went down to the unemployment office years ago, got disgusted by the bureaucracy in there, and walked right back out.

    You made a bad assumption about my life and likely the same about Mr. Blanc. As for me, yeah, I hate to see this all out, just because, being a family man, I have to think about what will happen if I get out there in the streets mixing it up. When I was younger I would have been kind of thrilled for all this to be happening. I knew things were going way wrong by 1995, but it was not time for anything like what's going on now. I really wonder whether current Americans are even worth fighting for, the common people, that is. As Socialist-thinking and non understanding of what freedom even means as the young people are, maybe it's time to leave....

  40. @TG
    Indeed things are crazy.

    But as regards deficits: it is impossible for a closed society to live beyond its means. Everything that is consumed, has to have been produced. Got it?

    So back pre-1970 when the US was a functional autarky (The pre-depression Smoot Hawley tariffs get a lot of flack, but back then foreign trade was about 3% of GNP if that i.e. trivial) deficits really didn't matter.

    Someone can't go broke owing money to themselves, can they?

    Given that our national debt is denominated in dollars, who cares, we can stiff our foreign creditors, right? And when the US was self sufficient, it often did and it got away with it just fine.

    But. Now that we have exported our industrial capacity, at the same time that we have vastly expanded domestic demand via massive third-world immigration, we can't survive without external supplies. So in principle yes we can stiff our foreign creditors - and they can stop shipping us stuff.

    So yes, monetary foolishness is foolishness, but never forget the bottom line of the real physical economy of real production. If the United States had significant real physical productive assets, we could at least in theory manage any lunatic financial collapse. But if we just can't produce what we need? No amount of financial juggling or 'austerity' will fix that.

    John Maynard Keynes is often vilified today (though considering how well the United States did using his policies in the 1940's and 1950's, really?) but what is forgotten is that he always said the core of economics is physical reality. Perhaps we would do well to remember this approach.

    Replies: @A123, @V. K. Ovelund

    But as regards deficits: it is impossible for a closed society to live beyond its means. Everything that is consumed, has to have been produced….

    Yours is the best macroeconomic comment of the month. The entire comment is recommended to all readers.

    When this election is over and things have quieted down, consider expanding the comment into an entire article.

    • Replies: @usNthem
    @V. K. Ovelund

    I wouldn’t necessarily count on any quieting down after the election.

  41. @Brian Reilly
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Achmed, The operative phrase there is "...otherwise decent...". An old person's (man? Do not know) fear of discomfort isn't supposed to trump staying on a principled path for the sake of oneself, and one's Posterity. When fear of discomfort, especially the fear of a person who has likely (not certain) lead a physically comfortable life, draws all attention from the first principles, nothing good can be said about it. So you and MBlanc can sit down with your kids, grand kids, that nice couple next door, and express your thoughts. Tell them you are getting yours, and good luck to them. You really do wish them well.

    That is why this formerly great nation is going to Hell in a pushcart. When good men (like Mblanc, presumably) do nothing, that is all Evil needs to prevail. We don't deserve liberty or comfort, and I will not be surprised to see them disappear for a while.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    What da heck makes you think that Mr. Blanc and I have been doing nothing? You don’t know that. I can’t speak for the guy, but besides having the Peak Stupidity blog going for 4 years (with over 1,600 posts up), I’ve voted L since the time right after Ronald Reagan, excepting for Trump, went to rallies here and there, and went to Trump’s rally in my state in the summer of ’16 with a nice humorous sign (got me some free shots of whiskey from some young guys too, and an interview with some dude who probably just deleted it…)

    I may have been keeping up with politics since before you were alive, Brian. Another thing more important than voting, rallies, and all that is that I’ve lived my life according to Libertarian/Constitutionalist principles, even when it’s cost me in time, money, and lost jobs. “Ya’ gotta know when to tell people to fuck off” is my motto.

    I’ve never really been a guy to go all out to “get mine”. I’m doing OK with my work now, but it was a long road to get there (not gonna explain for anon. reasons). Matter of fact, I’ve never gotten any government benefits. Even when I was laid off, turned out for a while, I went down to the unemployment office years ago, got disgusted by the bureaucracy in there, and walked right back out.

    You made a bad assumption about my life and likely the same about Mr. Blanc. As for me, yeah, I hate to see this all out, just because, being a family man, I have to think about what will happen if I get out there in the streets mixing it up. When I was younger I would have been kind of thrilled for all this to be happening. I knew things were going way wrong by 1995, but it was not time for anything like what’s going on now. I really wonder whether current Americans are even worth fighting for, the common people, that is. As Socialist-thinking and non understanding of what freedom even means as the young people are, maybe it’s time to leave….

  42. @V. K. Ovelund
    @TG


    But as regards deficits: it is impossible for a closed society to live beyond its means. Everything that is consumed, has to have been produced....
     
    Yours is the best macroeconomic comment of the month. The entire comment is recommended to all readers.

    When this election is over and things have quieted down, consider expanding the comment into an entire article.

    Replies: @usNthem

    I wouldn’t necessarily count on any quieting down after the election.

  43. @The Alarmist
    America’s and the Dollar’s Minsky Moment might be just around the corner. Systems are stable until they aren’t.

    Replies: @JL

    Why is it right around the corner, why does a Minsky Moment even have to happen at all? Deflationary tailwinds are so huge that even massive money printing can’t stop them, only slow them down. I see Japan as the future for the US, indeed, all developed economies. So, increasing debt, an overpriced currency and persistent, unbeatable deflation.

    There will be speculative bubbles blown and popped, like the Japanese stock and real estate markets, but this won’t destroy the economy. Look at a long term chart of JGBs, there’s a reason that shorting them is called the widow-maker trade.

    There are certainly threats to USD hegemony, but I think they are more political and geopolitical than economic and financial. If the US can keep it together on the home front, and avoid a military humiliation (like getting a CSG destroyed, at which point the USD would be the least of our worries), then I don’t see why this system can’t continue for decades.

  44. Deflationary tailwinds…

    In things you don’t actually need or in things that give you purchasing power. Watch things like food, which are quite inflationary lately. Now, hold those prices constant while your wages deflate, or lower food prices at a slower rate than wage deflation.

    That is your future in a world where dollars not created by unlocking human capital to create supply of goods chase after goods produced in decreased supply.

    • Replies: @JL
    @The Alarmist

    Real wages in the US started to make significant gains the past few years, the first time in decades, actually. Inflation was still nonexistent. The recent spike in food prices was likely corona related and prices probably won't remain elevated once supply issues are sorted out. But even if they do, it's not the end of the world, wages in the US are high enough to absorb it.

  45. @The Alarmist

    Deflationary tailwinds...
     
    In things you don’t actually need or in things that give you purchasing power. Watch things like food, which are quite inflationary lately. Now, hold those prices constant while your wages deflate, or lower food prices at a slower rate than wage deflation.

    That is your future in a world where dollars not created by unlocking human capital to create supply of goods chase after goods produced in decreased supply.

    Replies: @JL

    Real wages in the US started to make significant gains the past few years, the first time in decades, actually. Inflation was still nonexistent. The recent spike in food prices was likely corona related and prices probably won’t remain elevated once supply issues are sorted out. But even if they do, it’s not the end of the world, wages in the US are high enough to absorb it.

  46. @Ash Williams
    DXY down 10%? Pfft. Before the USD goes tits up, all the other currencies have to go first.

    No, the EUR won't work (tons of debt/regs, no common debt between the nations), no the CHF won't work, it's too small for the world to hide in, no the RMB won't work, China has it's own debt problem (it's all off the cooked books)...

    It's the cleanest dirty shirt.

    Replies: @A123, @AnotherDad, @Audacious Epigone

    In an environment of the international financial system becoming unraveled, I’m skeptical that a currency with such net negative production capacity–trade deficits are skyrocketing now, post global Covid shock–is going to be able to remain the most resilient. But if it is going to remain that way, not shower it on Americans?

  47. @V. K. Ovelund

    ... I say we see if the dollar really is impervious. If it is, or at any rate its destruction is decades down the road as many here maintain, forget raising rates to call in fire on our location. Open up the cash cannons and let them rip....
     
    I cannot tell how facetious, so let me play the straight man.

    Cash cannons would not end well, I don't think. What ever happened to the more moderate idea that the U.S. negotiate a gradual transfer, staged over a period of a few decades, of international transactions from the dollar to Special Drawing Rights (SDR)? That's a win for the U.S.—and while it might make U.S. stocks a drab investment for a long time, it would strengthen U.S. manufacturing without great shocks to the economy.

    (Then we need an immigration moratorium to make U.S. real estate a drab investment for a long time; but that's another topic.)

    Not an economist, I do not pretend to understand such things well, but cash cannons seem dramatic. Besides, we tried UBI this year, did we not? Neat idea. The result was nationwide riots.

    Replies: @iffen, @dfordoom, @Audacious Epigone

    The oligarchy isn’t going to allow anything happen that is bad for equities. The corptocracy gets to be the Good Guys by putting out rainbow flags, conducting racial sensitivity seminars, and paying peanuts to organizations like BLM. In return they get control of the monetary system. These last six months have been very good for them.

    • Thanks: V. K. Ovelund
  48. @A123
    @Ash Williams


    No, the EUR won’t work (tons of debt/regs, no common debt between the nations), no the CHF won’t work, it’s too small for the world to hide in, no the RMB won’t work, China has it’s own debt problem (it’s all off the cooked books)…
     
    You are correct.

    I have made this point in prior discussions. There is no credible replacement for the USD.

    Commodities, such as Gold, are also a terrible choice. There are huge costs associated with physical storage. Plus, Gold foil wrapped tungsten bars make the "money supply" unknowable. One of the reasons why the RMB is struggling is the number of major Chinese banks that have accepted fake gold as collateral. For example: (1)

    The city of Wuhan, China, is hitting the headlines again – this time as the place of origin for what could be one of the largest gold counterfeiting scams in recent times.

    According to multiple industry reports published this week, the Wuhan-based, NASDAQ-listed Kingold Jewelry issued 83 tonnes of alleged gold -- valued at $4.2 billion and the equivalent to 22 percent of the country's gold -- as collateral to obtain loans from at least 14 Chinese money lenders and trust banks.

    Except the "gold" in the bars is suspected of being gilded copper.

    "This is hardly surprising; most of the fakes we see in our business are coming out of China," Michael Wittmeyer, a gold expert for JMBullion.com. "There are replica products of what we sell online, and while people pay good money, they are essentially worthless."
     
    Until a credible replacement is available, the USD will continue us to be the global reserve currency.

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://www.foxnews.com/us/wuhan-company-now-at-the-center-of-one-of-the-biggest-fake-gold-scandals

    Replies: @Ash Williams, @The Wild Geese Howard, @Audacious Epigone

    Okay but there is a major political ‘problem’ with that analysis. If the dollar is essentially unbreakable, why not conjure a bunch of it up for people? There is an obvious electoral advantage in doing so for no cost, isn’t there?

  49. @Jus' Sayin'...
    @Achmed E. Newman

    I'd just add that people like Mr. Blanc, you, I, and many others have seen the coming crisis coming for decades. We've been ignored and we continue to be ignored. There is nothing further we can do to prevent the eventual crash of the dollar. There is nothing further we can do to prevent, slow down, or mitigate the ongoing collapse of US society. Therefore, it's eminently reasonable for us now to retire from our past futile endeavors and collect as many benefits as we can from the current situation before the mutually sustaining US dollar and US evil empire go down the tubes together.

    Replies: @Audacious Epigone

    Derision about predicting nine of the last two recessions being what it is, your admonishments were appreciated even though I didn’t see the end of the system being near until late 2018 when it became clear that the Fed was out of options. After being beaten back multiple times in the past, the beast has reappeared. This time, though, the Fed is completely out of ammo before the fight even begins.

  50. @Dan
    Gold is up about 20% in the last year which is substantial but given all that has happened, I am surprised it isn't more. CPI is up just 1.4% year-over-year.

    The DXY is down about 5% year over year, but it seems to be squarely in the middle of its 30 year average.

    I agree with you, AE, that we are seeing some alarming things but the dollar has been on a slow, controlled burn for the last 100 years. We've had a slow inflation for generations. US GDP is down 4% y/y but Europe is down closer to 10% y/y. I am not seeing shortages of things or spikes in prices. Where food spiked a bit earlier in the year, it seems to have settled back down.

    The economy is a crap sandwich for many and a few giga-companies have most of the profits. But some would argue that this is a good thing. If tons of people are working very hard for crap wages doesn't that help the empire?

    People need help and they aren't getting it. Isn't that great for the national bottom line?

    You talk about how the Fed is conjuring out of thin air -- and if that worked, why don't they just do that endlessly. Well they aren't doing it endlessly. It seems gold went to $2000, they stopped printing, and it settled back down to $1900.

    I mean, are we really trashing the dollar worse than we always have, a little bit at a time, over the last 100 years?

    Biden is campaigning on a big tax INCREASE, right? I hate Biden because he slurs heritage America with every sentence and he is apparently up to his eyeballs in pay-for-play corruption but that sounds like fiscal responsibility. Clinton actually got to a surplus with tax increases.

    Maybe Democrats are better positioned to deliver austerity because they control the narrative. Trump is tap dancing as fast as he can for blacks and for what? Dems can deliver a shit sandwich of austerity for blacks and the poor and have the media sell it. Trump has actually delivered pay increases and low unemployment and for what?

    Replies: @Not my economy, @Audacious Epigone

    Corporate tax increases will crash the equity markets. Interest rate increases will crash the equity markets. An extended pause in monetary stimulus will crash the equity markets. Maybe things can keep getting worse forever–we are currently experiencing record trade deficits and a record percentage of the federal budget being debt-financed–and if so, let’s make the most of it.

  51. @Jedi Night
    So, AE, what the real deal? You sound like you are rooting against the dollar. Is that accurate?

    Your point is actually pretty juvenile, if I'm understanding you correctly, like a really extreme straw man.

    No one is saying printing infinite money works. Who exactly are you arguing against, then?

    Stimulus gets us through a crisis. Making sure everyone has dollars prevents a deflationary depression. These are basically economic facts.

    If they were taken to extremes, would they fail? Yeah, everybody knows that. That's why they aren't taken to extremes. What exactly is your point?

    Replies: @Audacious Epigone

    What is the mechanism that causes things to fail when taken to the most extreme extremes that doesn’t apply in the current case–which is extreme by just about every historical measure (trade deficits, debt-financing, monetary stimulus)?

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