– Multiple people have balked at Trump’s apparent Mormon support. This comment at Heartiste’s is illustrative:
45.5% of Utahns voted for Trump, but you’re claiming that 72% of Mormons voted for Trump? Sorry, but those results don’t line up. There’s definitely some sampling error in there.
Keep in mind the results were in the context of a two-way race. Evan McMullin, the Mormon who was futilely pushed by cuckservatives in a ridiculously far-fetched attempt to send the election to the House of representatives, sucked up a lot of Mormon support. He got 21.5% of the vote in Utah. If we back this out and just compare Trump vs Hillary, we see that Trump crushed her, 62.4%-37.6%.
One-third of Utah’s population isn’t Mormon. Given that Mormons are the most reliably Republican demographic in the country, it’s probably reasonable to assume that Utah’s non-Mormon population was less likely to vote for Trump than its Mormons were. If we estimate non-Mormons in Utah went 50/50 for Trump/Hillary, we get a Mormon Utahan result of 68.6%-31.4% in Trump’s favor, close to the Reuters-Ipsos result of 71.6%-28.4% among Mormons nationwide.
While Utah is majority-Mormon, the majority of America’s Mormons do not live in Utah. Of the 6.5 million Mormons in the US, 2 million live in Utah. Since most McMullin voters, if forced to choose between Trump and Hillary likely would have gone with Trump, it’s reasonable to assume that relative to Mormons in Utah, non-Utahan Mormons in states where McMullin wasn’t on the the ballot–like California, which has the second-largest population of Mormons in the country after Utah–were more likely to vote for Trump than for Hillary.
So if Mormons outside of Utah went for Trump 73%-27% in a two-way contest with Hillary–which seems quite plausible–we’d be exactly in line with the R-I result.
– Similarly, there have been assertions that the marriage gap is actually just a disguised age gap. Again, from a commenter at Heartiste’s:
If you had broken all your groups down by age, you’d find that young white women are more likely to be single and that single white manginas who voted for thecunt were…young!
Age is positively correlated with the likelihood of being married, but the marriage gap is present within age cohorts (at least among women). Among whites under 35, Trump’s support among whites breaks down as follows:
Young single white men were marginally more supportive of Trump than young married white men were, though the difference is within the margin of error. The difference between young single and young married white women, however, is yuge.
Now let’s look at whites aged 35-65 (beyond 65 we start running into widow confounding):
Here, too, the marriage gap is more of a chasm among women.
We might want to refine our focus on the marriage gap to an emphasis on the female marriage gap in particular.
Note too that age isn’t much of a factor here. Younger and older single white women vote pretty much the same, as do younger and older married white women, etc. Among whites, it’s mostly single women on one side and everyone else on the other.