The great polymath Razib Khan put together a fairly conventional Electoral College map prediction on social media that generated a lot of commentary:
my final map so i can say "i told u so" if i turn out to be right. i put 5 seconds of thought into this…figure i'd make it a little different than the polls so i wouldn't be crowded out by others. pic.twitter.com/ExC6gKNPMb
— Razib 😈 Khan (@razibkhan) October 23, 2020
In response, Razib noted:
i made a casual election prediction. never got so many comments in response before! the interesting thing is ppl assume that my prediction reflects my preferences. that is, reality as i think it will be is driven by what i want it to be.
reasonable, tho that's not how i roll
— Razib 😈 Khan (@razibkhan) October 24, 2020
Whether he is voting at all and if so for whom is unknown, but his observation is nevertheless a perspicacious one. The following graph shows who voters expect to win the election by whether they are voting for Trump or for Biden:
Objectivity is becoming impossible. Even when good faith attempts at it are made, they will be received cynically by nearly everyone whose priors they potentially challenge. It’s difficult to see how free speech survives this.
Separation is the way out of this if there is one. Political separation is an aspect of it, but it’s not everything. Virtual separation is becoming a necessity. If Biden/Harris wins, as we–members of the 4%–expect they will, Silicon Valley will own the next administration. Challenges to Section 230 protections aren’t going anywhere in that environment. They want the broad right off their platforms. They’re not going to stop pushing until we’re gone, so why not leave? That the alternatives are currently much weaker is in large part a function of the network effect, but that problem isn’t any easier to overcome by begging to be a second-class members of it.