2020 electoral maps based on RCP general election polling for Trump vs Biden, Sanders, and Warren through December 9th, 2019 follow.
The Biden brutalization:
The RCP average has Trump beating Biden in Texas by less than one point, and Texas was one of eleven states where Trump performed worse in the actual election than polling predicted he would in 2016. If Biden wins Texas in this scenario, the electoral blowout intensifies to 406-132.
Texas’ time is near. Being the only state in the country where whites vote more Republican than non-whites vote Democrat is not going to be enough in a place that is 41% white and falling and where just one-in-three births are to white babies.
On the other hand, Trump could have traded mighty Texas to Hillary in exchange for tiny New Hampshire and still won in 2016.
On the other other hand, Georgia may flip before Texas does, and once both have gone blue the GOP will have to take both Minnesota and Maine to fight to a 269-269 draw.
From the GOP’s perspective, Texas and Georgia are terminal but the party’s electoral winter need not necessarily set in during the 2020s. If the party is able to sustain its 2016 gains in the upper Midwest while additionally picking off a couple of small New England states like Maine and New Hampshire, Republicans could continue to win presidential elections into the 2040s.
Polling up to this point shows Trump not only getting crushed in Michigan and Pennsylvania but also beaten in Ohio, so seeing the path to continued electoral relevance and managing to walk down it are two very different things.
The Sanders savaging:
The Warren whipping:
Polling is incomplete for the rest of the Democrat field. Several states also have results for Buttigieg, but a few do not. He falls in between Sanders and Warren in how he fares against Trump in the states he’s included in.
Though the polls portend Republican disaster, the markets have general election chances at close to a coin flip, Republicans at 47% to Democrats at 54%.
Why? Polling modestly understated Trump’s performance in 2016, but they are a lot worse for him at this point in 2020 than they were at the same point in 2016.
Part of it is that Trump is a known quantity. Barring a market collapse, he’s at his floor. Though Biden and Sanders are familiar to low-information voters, they’ve not been fully scrutinized, so both are likely to come down upon getting the nomination if either does.
Warren’s situation is worse. She starts lower than her fellow Democrats yet she has farther to fall than they do. Many low-information voters don’t know who she is. They don’t know about her pretending to be non-white to game the affirmative action system, they don’t know she used to be a Republican, they don’t know what her voice sounds like. She is surely Trump’s best matchup in the Democrat field.