If House votes determined which presidential candidate won each state, the Electoral College map would’ve looked like this:
North Carolina is only blue on account of its 12th district. Incumbent Alma Adams ran unopposed, but if a Republican sacrificial lamb had received even half the paltry vote the 2018 challenger did, North Carolina would be red as well.
It could conceivably be a consequence of fraud, but the null hypothesis should be the one with empirical backing. The Fox News/AP Voter Analysis survey showed 8% of Republicans voting for Biden compared to 4% of Democrats voting for Trump. The Edison Research exit poll found only a marginal Biden advantage, with 6% of Republicans voting for the former vice president and 5% of Democrats voting for Trump. Both polls, however, found independents breaking hard for Biden. If those independents roughly split at the congressional level, there’s the explanation.
Trump energized friend and foe alike. This likely benefited Republicans more than Democrats down ballot. The excess turnout for Trump compared to 2016 will have seen voting for the president’s party in congressional races as an extension of supporting Trump. The marginal voters who expended the effort to kick Trump out of office, though, wouldn’t necessarily feel like that sentiment had to extend to the congressional contests.
If the GOP holds at least one of the Georgia Senate seats in January, Trump will remain the implicit leader of the Republican party. The major media will do its best to portray Mitch McConnell as the head of the opposition, but the Republican rank-and-file will listen to him about as much as they listen to Mitt Romney now. If Republicans lose both seats, however, Trump will be the undisputed king of the party, Republican minorities in House and Senate taking their public cues for criticism from him.
While Barack Obama is the most revered and respected Democrat in the country, he is and always has been a product of the system. Trump is not. He will feel no obligation to defer to Republicans in formal positions of power like Obama has for Democrats since leaving office. Trump will continue to have the most viewed and engaged with Twitter feed in the country as Biden is sworn in, as he is carted out, and every day in between.
Unless Twitter bans Trump, that is. We’re going to get a big real world test of whether Big Tech puts profits or ideology first in the next couple of months.