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If House votes determined which presidential candidate won each state, the Electoral College map would’ve looked like this:

North Carolina is only blue on account of its 12th district. Incumbent Alma Adams ran unopposed, but if a Republican sacrificial lamb had received even half the paltry vote the 2018 challenger did, North Carolina would be red as well.

It could conceivably be a consequence of fraud, but the null hypothesis should be the one with empirical backing. The Fox News/AP Voter Analysis survey showed 8% of Republicans voting for Biden compared to 4% of Democrats voting for Trump. The Edison Research exit poll found only a marginal Biden advantage, with 6% of Republicans voting for the former vice president and 5% of Democrats voting for Trump. Both polls, however, found independents breaking hard for Biden. If those independents roughly split at the congressional level, there’s the explanation.

Trump energized friend and foe alike. This likely benefited Republicans more than Democrats down ballot. The excess turnout for Trump compared to 2016 will have seen voting for the president’s party in congressional races as an extension of supporting Trump. The marginal voters who expended the effort to kick Trump out of office, though, wouldn’t necessarily feel like that sentiment had to extend to the congressional contests.

If the GOP holds at least one of the Georgia Senate seats in January, Trump will remain the implicit leader of the Republican party. The major media will do its best to portray Mitch McConnell as the head of the opposition, but the Republican rank-and-file will listen to him about as much as they listen to Mitt Romney now. If Republicans lose both seats, however, Trump will be the undisputed king of the party, Republican minorities in House and Senate taking their public cues for criticism from him.

While Barack Obama is the most revered and respected Democrat in the country, he is and always has been a product of the system. Trump is not. He will feel no obligation to defer to Republicans in formal positions of power like Obama has for Democrats since leaving office. Trump will continue to have the most viewed and engaged with Twitter feed in the country as Biden is sworn in, as he is carted out, and every day in between.

Unless Twitter bans Trump, that is. We’re going to get a big real world test of whether Big Tech puts profits or ideology first in the next couple of months.

 
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  1. Anonymous[112] • Disclaimer says:

    What we’ll see in 2020-2024 won’t be fundamentally different from what we saw in 2016-2020. First, Trump tweeted that he was gonna do things, got mass praise from the fan base, then didn’t do them. Next, he’ll tweet that things should be done, get mass praise from the fan base, and they won’t get done. “Nothing will fundamentally change-” Joe ‘Who Took My Record Player?’ Biden

    • Replies: @Realist
    @Anonymous

    As always the only things that will get done will be those things the Deep States wants done.

  2. whether Big Tech puts profits or ideology first in the next couple of months

    The thing is that ideology increasingly is what is going to determine profits going forward, that is why “get woke go broke” is false. You cannot separate Big Tech from the regime any more one could say the Soviet tractor industry was independent of the politburo.

    • Agree: dfordoom
    • Replies: @red6020
    @neutral


    The thing is that ideology increasingly is what is going to determine profits going forward, that is why “get woke go broke” is false.
     
    I gently disagree with this. "Get woke go broke" is false, but for other reasons.

    Personally, I think monopoly power is far more relevant. There's just not competition in the marketplace in almost every sector of the economy. What "competition" exists is usually between a handful of firms. Twitter has no real social media competitors. If you're looking for a short-message social medium, you have Gab and Parler. Those platforms are essentially dead and experience short bursts of life only when Twitter makes some new step in censorship, then swiftly die down again.

    For what it's worth, I think the solution is to make Twitter interoperable with other networks, much like Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile must be interoperable in phone networks.

    If you don't break up these monopolies, they'll be a government unto themselves pushing leftist degeneracy on us all.
  3. There is known widespread violence (up to and including murder), doxxing, harassment, and disemployment of Trump supporters. Now after you vote, a stranger with a clipboard approaches you and asks who you voted for. How will you answer?

    Of course, most AE commenters are brass-balled alpha males, so the answer would be “Trumphitler!” followed by a choice vulgarity, then getting the pollstress’s digits. But consider that not all voters are the same. Your wife, for instance, may not fancy the soyface pollster writing down her license plate for later use.

    Multiple studies have shown the Shy Tory is real and substantial, and perhaps never more substantial than today. And now we’re going to take exit polls seriously? How can we talk about 3% or 4% exit poll variances when Shy Tories could be double or triple that?

    Trump will remain the implicit leader of the Republican party. … If Republicans lose both seats, however, Trump will be the undisputed king of the party, Republican minorities in House and Senate taking their public cues for criticism from him.

    I dunno man. Many (most?) Republicans seemed to do their best to avoid taking any cues from Trump when he was in the Oval Office. Now they’re going to pay obeisance when he’s gone?

    I mean, you’re right in the sense that historical GOPe-ism has no future, while populism remains popular. So if they knew what was good for them, the GOP certainly would be more Trump-ist (2016 edition) if not actually deferential to the man himself. But if the GOP knew what was good for them, they would not have done most of what they did in the last thirty years.

    • Agree: V. K. Ovelund
    • Replies: @Diversity Heretic
    @Almost Missouri

    There's a reason that Sam Francis referred to the GOP as the stupid party. The most likely course of action is a McConnell-Romney purge of Trump supporters from Republican ranks;

    , @Achmed E. Newman
    @Almost Missouri

    Almost Missouri, your comment here (good comment in general, as usual) hit upon 2 things that I will be writing on shortly:

    1) I got talked to by a cop for my actions and alleged vulgarity* and trashing of my kid's face mask outside the school. Yeah, I thought it would be better not to show up anymore, but had to go today, and was still surprised the Brit lefty bitch I offended had to call in the law (excuse me, "School Resource Officer"). We had a pretty good chat, really.

    2) I got polled by Gallup on the phone for 45 minutes, by my estimate. It was interesting, and I'll write more about that here under the next thread it applies to. Just the gist of my take on it is that most of the questions are either only being asked to establish who I am, or are just plain stupidly made questions. There were only 1 or 2 that were real questions that made me think "that's my opinion". That's out of a hundred or more. Stupidity in polling.

    .


    * Truly, I don't remember using bad words, but women have those memories that pick up a lot of things that may or may not have been said...

    Replies: @Adam Smith

    , @obwandiyag
    @Almost Missouri

    The adjusted exit polls or the real exit polls.

    , @MBlanc46
    @Almost Missouri

    As long as corporate America keeps financing the Repubs, the Repubs will do corporate America’s bidding. Populists only have votes, not large campaign donations.

  4. One problem Trump will have as leader of the opposition is the fact that he will face a large number of civil suits and criminal prosecutions as a warning to any other billiionaire who fancies doing what Trump did. These prosecutions may extend to his children and I think that you’ll see an effort to purge former Trump staffers and political appointees from “polite” Washington society. I don’t think that it’s impossible that Trump will be forced into exile. I wonder if he can seek political asylum in Slovenia based on his marriage to Melania? Or maybe Vladimir Putin can offer him asylum in Russia and he can have an appartment next to Edward Snowden!

    • Agree: Rosie
    • Replies: @brabantian
    @Diversity Heretic

    The question of Trump perhaps needing exile is a good one

    But it is likely part of whatever hidden Deep State 'deal' is going down right now, that Trump and his family will not be prosecuted, just as Biden and his family would not be prosecuted if the Deep State decision was to have the judges acknowledge vote fraud and let Trump win ... just as Hillary and the Clintons were not prosecuted under Trump ... The Deep State would honour a secret Trump-immunity deal so that various kinds of other operatives could trust 'deals' offered to them

    But if exile is needed, my candidate for the destination of Trump's plane whilst in flight on noon of inauguration day, is Belarus:
    (1) Still Slavic, so Melania and Barron would be comfortable, with a cousin language;
    (2) Outside the EU and any EU-indulged legal / administrative actions;
    (3) Lukashenko also being an anti-lockdown covid sceptic, and also like Trump, a personal target of the hate of George Soros; and
    (4) Implicitly under Putin's protection without actually being in Russia

    Replies: @Realist

    , @MBlanc46
    @Diversity Heretic

    Anyone making book on whether Trump ends up in prison?

  5. If the GOP holds at least one of the Georgia Senate seats in January, …

    As if the Dem machine is. goiing to let that happen.

    … Trump will remain the implicit leader of the Republican party.

    From Sing Sing? You think they’re going to let Trump breathe free air?

    Trump should resign in early January if his Hail Mary doesn’t pan out on January 6. He might get a pardon from President Pence, but more importantly it will screw up all the Inaugural stuff celebrating Biden as POTUS 46.

    • LOL: nokangaroos
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @The Alarmist

    Hunter Biden, '46? Will we call him by his olde American name, or his real Chinese name, Bie Dien Hun Tua, 'scuse me, CHAIRMAN Bi Dien?

  6. @Diversity Heretic
    One problem Trump will have as leader of the opposition is the fact that he will face a large number of civil suits and criminal prosecutions as a warning to any other billiionaire who fancies doing what Trump did. These prosecutions may extend to his children and I think that you'll see an effort to purge former Trump staffers and political appointees from "polite" Washington society. I don't think that it's impossible that Trump will be forced into exile. I wonder if he can seek political asylum in Slovenia based on his marriage to Melania? Or maybe Vladimir Putin can offer him asylum in Russia and he can have an appartment next to Edward Snowden!

    Replies: @brabantian, @MBlanc46

    The question of Trump perhaps needing exile is a good one

    But it is likely part of whatever hidden Deep State ‘deal’ is going down right now, that Trump and his family will not be prosecuted, just as Biden and his family would not be prosecuted if the Deep State decision was to have the judges acknowledge vote fraud and let Trump win … just as Hillary and the Clintons were not prosecuted under Trump … The Deep State would honour a secret Trump-immunity deal so that various kinds of other operatives could trust ‘deals’ offered to them

    But if exile is needed, my candidate for the destination of Trump’s plane whilst in flight on noon of inauguration day, is Belarus:
    (1) Still Slavic, so Melania and Barron would be comfortable, with a cousin language;
    (2) Outside the EU and any EU-indulged legal / administrative actions;
    (3) Lukashenko also being an anti-lockdown covid sceptic, and also like Trump, a personal target of the hate of George Soros; and
    (4) Implicitly under Putin’s protection without actually being in Russia

    • Replies: @Realist
    @brabantian

    You are correct the Deep State is in total control.

  7. @Almost Missouri
    There is known widespread violence (up to and including murder), doxxing, harassment, and disemployment of Trump supporters. Now after you vote, a stranger with a clipboard approaches you and asks who you voted for. How will you answer?

    Of course, most AE commenters are brass-balled alpha males, so the answer would be "Trumphitler!" followed by a choice vulgarity, then getting the pollstress's digits. But consider that not all voters are the same. Your wife, for instance, may not fancy the soyface pollster writing down her license plate for later use.

    Multiple studies have shown the Shy Tory is real and substantial, and perhaps never more substantial than today. And now we're going to take exit polls seriously? How can we talk about 3% or 4% exit poll variances when Shy Tories could be double or triple that?

    Trump will remain the implicit leader of the Republican party. ... If Republicans lose both seats, however, Trump will be the undisputed king of the party, Republican minorities in House and Senate taking their public cues for criticism from him.
     
    I dunno man. Many (most?) Republicans seemed to do their best to avoid taking any cues from Trump when he was in the Oval Office. Now they're going to pay obeisance when he's gone?

    I mean, you're right in the sense that historical GOPe-ism has no future, while populism remains popular. So if they knew what was good for them, the GOP certainly would be more Trump-ist (2016 edition) if not actually deferential to the man himself. But if the GOP knew what was good for them, they would not have done most of what they did in the last thirty years.

    Replies: @Diversity Heretic, @Achmed E. Newman, @obwandiyag, @MBlanc46

    There’s a reason that Sam Francis referred to the GOP as the stupid party. The most likely course of action is a McConnell-Romney purge of Trump supporters from Republican ranks;

    • Agree: iffen, dfordoom
  8. The Orange One will pull bank when he hits the post-presidential speaking circuit. I’d love to know how much he gets per speech as compared to the other former presidents.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @res
    @Talha


    The Orange One will pull bank when he hits the post-presidential speaking circuit. I’d love to know how much he gets per speech as compared to the other former presidents.
     
    I'm not so sure about that. It makes for an interesting question. Will the people who pay for speakers value an interesting speaker more than virtue signalling and trying to punish Trump?

    Replies: @Talha

  9. @Almost Missouri
    There is known widespread violence (up to and including murder), doxxing, harassment, and disemployment of Trump supporters. Now after you vote, a stranger with a clipboard approaches you and asks who you voted for. How will you answer?

    Of course, most AE commenters are brass-balled alpha males, so the answer would be "Trumphitler!" followed by a choice vulgarity, then getting the pollstress's digits. But consider that not all voters are the same. Your wife, for instance, may not fancy the soyface pollster writing down her license plate for later use.

    Multiple studies have shown the Shy Tory is real and substantial, and perhaps never more substantial than today. And now we're going to take exit polls seriously? How can we talk about 3% or 4% exit poll variances when Shy Tories could be double or triple that?

    Trump will remain the implicit leader of the Republican party. ... If Republicans lose both seats, however, Trump will be the undisputed king of the party, Republican minorities in House and Senate taking their public cues for criticism from him.
     
    I dunno man. Many (most?) Republicans seemed to do their best to avoid taking any cues from Trump when he was in the Oval Office. Now they're going to pay obeisance when he's gone?

    I mean, you're right in the sense that historical GOPe-ism has no future, while populism remains popular. So if they knew what was good for them, the GOP certainly would be more Trump-ist (2016 edition) if not actually deferential to the man himself. But if the GOP knew what was good for them, they would not have done most of what they did in the last thirty years.

    Replies: @Diversity Heretic, @Achmed E. Newman, @obwandiyag, @MBlanc46

    Almost Missouri, your comment here (good comment in general, as usual) hit upon 2 things that I will be writing on shortly:

    1) I got talked to by a cop for my actions and alleged vulgarity* and trashing of my kid’s face mask outside the school. Yeah, I thought it would be better not to show up anymore, but had to go today, and was still surprised the Brit lefty bitch I offended had to call in the law (excuse me, “School Resource Officer”). We had a pretty good chat, really.

    2) I got polled by Gallup on the phone for 45 minutes, by my estimate. It was interesting, and I’ll write more about that here under the next thread it applies to. Just the gist of my take on it is that most of the questions are either only being asked to establish who I am, or are just plain stupidly made questions. There were only 1 or 2 that were real questions that made me think “that’s my opinion”. That’s out of a hundred or more. Stupidity in polling.

    .

    * Truly, I don’t remember using bad words, but women have those memories that pick up a lot of things that may or may not have been said…

    • Replies: @Adam Smith
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Perhaps your alleged vulgarity was letting the holy facerag touch the ground?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  10. @The Alarmist

    If the GOP holds at least one of the Georgia Senate seats in January, ...
     
    As if the Dem machine is. goiing to let that happen.

    … Trump will remain the implicit leader of the Republican party.
     
    From Sing Sing? You think they’re going to let Trump breathe free air?

    Trump should resign in early January if his Hail Mary doesn’t pan out on January 6. He might get a pardon from President Pence, but more importantly it will screw up all the Inaugural stuff celebrating Biden as POTUS 46.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Hunter Biden, ’46? Will we call him by his olde American name, or his real Chinese name, Bie Dien Hun Tua, ‘scuse me, CHAIRMAN Bi Dien?

  11. The House results and the possibility that Republicans will maintain control of the Senate give me a bit of optimism that we might have a few more years to try and stall the ship of destruction, if not start a slight turning about.

  12. AE,

    Have you seen specific statistics on “under-voting” where the only the Presidential race was marked?

    It would be interesting to compare the count and split of “under-vote” ballots from 2016 versus 2020.
    ____

    For Georgia 2020 there were 97,600 “under-vote” ballots cast only for the Presidency. The split is: (1)
    — 96,800 — Biden
    —       800 — Trump

    No one rational can possibly believe that a 99.2%/0.8% split is the result of a human voting behaviour.

    PEACE 😇

    • Agree: follyofwar
    • Replies: @Alexander Turok
    @A123

    Source? All I found is something saying Biden got 100,000 more votes than Ossoff. That's not the same as "under-voting," as that would also include anyone who voted for Biden but Republican down-ballot.

  13. There’s another possibility in the Republican gains Down ticket with the Trump loss on top. I think it’s obvious in states like PA that there was a massive number of unreal votes by Mail: the differential between Biden and Trump was more than 3x the average of about a 15% Biden advantage in Mail-in balloting nations wide. With that advantage, the Democrats should have taken the legislature in PA, but didn’t come close.

    This suggests a pretty deep conspiracy involving the Republicans as well. The fraud in some states is obvious, but it was directed only (or mostly) at Trump. Perhaps the fraudsters get the R’s to sign off on it by promising that it will only take out Trump, whom many GOPe types hate anyway, while they continue to be able to wet their beaks in the part of the elite scam that allocates funding to the Stupid Party.

  14. @Anonymous
    What we'll see in 2020-2024 won't be fundamentally different from what we saw in 2016-2020. First, Trump tweeted that he was gonna do things, got mass praise from the fan base, then didn't do them. Next, he'll tweet that things should be done, get mass praise from the fan base, and they won't get done. "Nothing will fundamentally change-" Joe 'Who Took My Record Player?' Biden

    Replies: @Realist

    As always the only things that will get done will be those things the Deep States wants done.

  15. You’d have to be a nut to deny the fraud.

    I’ll wait till Richard Baris weighs in, but I have a dang hard time believing that independents broke hard for Trump in Florida, Iowa, and Ohio but not Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. It makes zero sense; it’s never happened before either. Independents in Florida, a state mixed between Southerners and cultural Easterners, are representative of independents in Georgia as well as PA an the Midwest. Independents in Iowa are representative of Wisconsin, and the rest of the Midwest. Independents in Ohio are representative of PA. The very idea that Iowa and Ohio could break hard one way, cutting totally against WI, MI, and PA is completely unprecedented and statistically hokum.

    These states always go close together. Now, Ohio’s tendencies are a bit goofy, but they’re at least clear: when it goes Republican, it usually goes by several points. When it goes Democrat, it usually goes by a very close margin. But, either way, the rest of the Big Ten country follows it closely. When Ohio is a big Republican blowout, PA is a close Republican win. This year makes zero sense, and I find it basically impossible that Mahoning County and Lorain County would flip red while Trump (supposedly) lost some ground in parts of rural western PA while also losing Erie. These voters represent each other! But the reason is obvious: Ohio has cleaned up its voting act in Cleveland, etc, while the PA State Supreme Court and Secretary of State basically legalized mail-in fraud.

    On that note, just yesterday the PA State Supreme Court ruled that it’s okay for ballots to be illegal as long as they’re illegal in a “technical” sense. https://triblive.com/local/pa-supreme-court-says-undated-mail-in-ballots-in-ziccarelli-case-can-be-counted/

    And that’s before I get to a whole host of other statistical impossibilities that happened in 2020, and 2020 alone. My personal favorite being the fact that black turnout was meh pretty much everywhere except for, you know, the most important cities in GA, PA, WI, and MI. There it was higher than it was for Obama. This from a demographic that is HIGHLY representative of itself nationwide, and which has NEVER acted that way before.

    Tell you something else: right now I’m working on figuring out bellwether county accuracy in the 1960 election. I think it’s gonna be around 5o to 60%. That’s really bad; the 150 or so best bellwether counties usually average around 85%, and the best average over 98%. But it would make sense for them to go to about 50% in 1960, because JFK and Nixon were both mobbed up an both were stealing votes; JFK stole Texas and Chicago, and Nixon was very good friends with Santo Trafficante in Florida and Mickey Cohen in LA.

    This year we had the 19 most accurate counties (since 1980) go 1/18, with the 1 being a Washington state county that probably had an influx of wealthy liberals escaping the chaos of Seattle. And the 174 most accurate counties since 1976 dropped from an average of 85% to 16%. Simply amazing that anyone could believe this crap.

    In reality, in a fair election, Trump probably loses NH and MN, but he wins NV (even with the fraud, NV voted well to the right of the national average), MI (by a close margin), WI, and PA – the latter by at least 100,000 votes. AZ, I think, would have been close since voter registration trends within the 2016-20 cycle favored Dems there. Also, the AZ Democrats brilliantly put weed on the ballot.

    Speaking of voter registration trends, those are highly predictive and have pretty much never have been wrong – you know, except for this year, in like 4 states. Ridiculous – how could anyone believe this nonsense?

    Sorry for the length, sorta, but it was worth it.

    • Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    By the way, the Wall Street Journal claimed that bellwether accuracy inexplicably fell apart this year because of "polarization."

    This is one of the worst and most amateurish explanations, perhaps in all of human history.

    1) Why were bellwethers of sterling accuracy in 2016? You mean to say that 2016 wasn't equally, or nearly as, polarized as 2020? Absurd.
    2) Why were bellwethers accurate in 1860? 1860 was so polarized (far more than 2020, no matter what anyone says) that Lincoln wasn't even on the ballot in more than a fourth of the US!!

    No, the only two times bellwether states or counties have been thrown off have been 1960 and 2020. In 1960 (the last time Florida and Ohio were both "wrong"), you had two mobbed up candidates, and bellwethers reflected that by falling to around 50% accurate. In 2020, you had a candidate (Trump) who was pretty strong despite being fairly inept and a candidate (Biden) who was just straight up cheating like Hell. And that's why bellwether accuracy was implausibly bad for the first time ever.

    , @Corvinus
    @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    Hat Tips --> Anon[314], Jack D., Ali Choudhury

    (There own words and ideas, which are relevant here and make critical points)

    The huge numbers of absentee votes have thrown conservatives for a loop, because they’ve made the vote counting process much less intuitive than it was in previous elections. The procedures for counting the absentee votes vary substantially between states, between counties in the same state, and even between municipalities in the same county. So the timing and granularity of vote count reports was different from one place to the next, generating suspicion and confusion.

    The confusion was exacerbated because it just took way longer to count the vastly larger numbers of these ballots. Laws that absentee ballots could not be counted before election day suddenly were much more relevant and resulted in delayed reporting. Some of these “late night vote dumps” were in fact reports of votes counted by large numbers of people working continuously from the moment they were legally allowed to start counting. It just took them a long time to finish.

    The real story may turn out to be that mass absentee balloting is just inherently better for the Democrats. It will be hard to put that genie back into the bottle. [And] Trump knew that the mail in votes favored Democrats so even before the election he started sowing [doubt] about them, knowing that in the swing states he would “win” on election night and then lose later on once the absentee ballots were counted.

    The problem with this is that, despite all the hand waving, no one has any substantial proof that this actually happened on a large scale. If there was some kind of vast conspiracy, someone would have talked by now. All the “evidence” offered by Trump and by conspiracy theorists here and elsewhere has not really panned out or was just blowing smoke to begin with. It is desirable to yell the election was stolen since it keeps the angry base more inclined to give donations.

    Replies: @V. K. Ovelund, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @anon

  16. @brabantian
    @Diversity Heretic

    The question of Trump perhaps needing exile is a good one

    But it is likely part of whatever hidden Deep State 'deal' is going down right now, that Trump and his family will not be prosecuted, just as Biden and his family would not be prosecuted if the Deep State decision was to have the judges acknowledge vote fraud and let Trump win ... just as Hillary and the Clintons were not prosecuted under Trump ... The Deep State would honour a secret Trump-immunity deal so that various kinds of other operatives could trust 'deals' offered to them

    But if exile is needed, my candidate for the destination of Trump's plane whilst in flight on noon of inauguration day, is Belarus:
    (1) Still Slavic, so Melania and Barron would be comfortable, with a cousin language;
    (2) Outside the EU and any EU-indulged legal / administrative actions;
    (3) Lukashenko also being an anti-lockdown covid sceptic, and also like Trump, a personal target of the hate of George Soros; and
    (4) Implicitly under Putin's protection without actually being in Russia

    Replies: @Realist

    You are correct the Deep State is in total control.

  17. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    You'd have to be a nut to deny the fraud.

    I'll wait till Richard Baris weighs in, but I have a dang hard time believing that independents broke hard for Trump in Florida, Iowa, and Ohio but not Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. It makes zero sense; it's never happened before either. Independents in Florida, a state mixed between Southerners and cultural Easterners, are representative of independents in Georgia as well as PA an the Midwest. Independents in Iowa are representative of Wisconsin, and the rest of the Midwest. Independents in Ohio are representative of PA. The very idea that Iowa and Ohio could break hard one way, cutting totally against WI, MI, and PA is completely unprecedented and statistically hokum.

    These states always go close together. Now, Ohio's tendencies are a bit goofy, but they're at least clear: when it goes Republican, it usually goes by several points. When it goes Democrat, it usually goes by a very close margin. But, either way, the rest of the Big Ten country follows it closely. When Ohio is a big Republican blowout, PA is a close Republican win. This year makes zero sense, and I find it basically impossible that Mahoning County and Lorain County would flip red while Trump (supposedly) lost some ground in parts of rural western PA while also losing Erie. These voters represent each other! But the reason is obvious: Ohio has cleaned up its voting act in Cleveland, etc, while the PA State Supreme Court and Secretary of State basically legalized mail-in fraud.

    On that note, just yesterday the PA State Supreme Court ruled that it's okay for ballots to be illegal as long as they're illegal in a "technical" sense. https://triblive.com/local/pa-supreme-court-says-undated-mail-in-ballots-in-ziccarelli-case-can-be-counted/

    And that's before I get to a whole host of other statistical impossibilities that happened in 2020, and 2020 alone. My personal favorite being the fact that black turnout was meh pretty much everywhere except for, you know, the most important cities in GA, PA, WI, and MI. There it was higher than it was for Obama. This from a demographic that is HIGHLY representative of itself nationwide, and which has NEVER acted that way before.

    Tell you something else: right now I'm working on figuring out bellwether county accuracy in the 1960 election. I think it's gonna be around 5o to 60%. That's really bad; the 150 or so best bellwether counties usually average around 85%, and the best average over 98%. But it would make sense for them to go to about 50% in 1960, because JFK and Nixon were both mobbed up an both were stealing votes; JFK stole Texas and Chicago, and Nixon was very good friends with Santo Trafficante in Florida and Mickey Cohen in LA.

    This year we had the 19 most accurate counties (since 1980) go 1/18, with the 1 being a Washington state county that probably had an influx of wealthy liberals escaping the chaos of Seattle. And the 174 most accurate counties since 1976 dropped from an average of 85% to 16%. Simply amazing that anyone could believe this crap.

    In reality, in a fair election, Trump probably loses NH and MN, but he wins NV (even with the fraud, NV voted well to the right of the national average), MI (by a close margin), WI, and PA - the latter by at least 100,000 votes. AZ, I think, would have been close since voter registration trends within the 2016-20 cycle favored Dems there. Also, the AZ Democrats brilliantly put weed on the ballot.

    Speaking of voter registration trends, those are highly predictive and have pretty much never have been wrong - you know, except for this year, in like 4 states. Ridiculous - how could anyone believe this nonsense?

    Sorry for the length, sorta, but it was worth it.

    Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Corvinus

    By the way, the Wall Street Journal claimed that bellwether accuracy inexplicably fell apart this year because of “polarization.”

    This is one of the worst and most amateurish explanations, perhaps in all of human history.

    1) Why were bellwethers of sterling accuracy in 2016? You mean to say that 2016 wasn’t equally, or nearly as, polarized as 2020? Absurd.
    2) Why were bellwethers accurate in 1860? 1860 was so polarized (far more than 2020, no matter what anyone says) that Lincoln wasn’t even on the ballot in more than a fourth of the US!!

    No, the only two times bellwether states or counties have been thrown off have been 1960 and 2020. In 1960 (the last time Florida and Ohio were both “wrong”), you had two mobbed up candidates, and bellwethers reflected that by falling to around 50% accurate. In 2020, you had a candidate (Trump) who was pretty strong despite being fairly inept and a candidate (Biden) who was just straight up cheating like Hell. And that’s why bellwether accuracy was implausibly bad for the first time ever.

  18. @Talha
    The Orange One will pull bank when he hits the post-presidential speaking circuit. I’d love to know how much he gets per speech as compared to the other former presidents.

    Peace.

    Replies: @res

    The Orange One will pull bank when he hits the post-presidential speaking circuit. I’d love to know how much he gets per speech as compared to the other former presidents.

    I’m not so sure about that. It makes for an interesting question. Will the people who pay for speakers value an interesting speaker more than virtue signalling and trying to punish Trump?

    • Replies: @Talha
    @res

    He might even get a show on Fox or something. The guy is already a media personality, he knows how to handle TV.

    I am genuinely interested in how this plays out. I think all this prosecution stuff is bunk. Even if the Orange One is convicted, Biden will pardon him because that's how the deal works; that way he is also protected from any liability for anything he does (including potential war crimes) during his presidency.

    Peace.

    Replies: @dfordoom

  19. @res
    @Talha


    The Orange One will pull bank when he hits the post-presidential speaking circuit. I’d love to know how much he gets per speech as compared to the other former presidents.
     
    I'm not so sure about that. It makes for an interesting question. Will the people who pay for speakers value an interesting speaker more than virtue signalling and trying to punish Trump?

    Replies: @Talha

    He might even get a show on Fox or something. The guy is already a media personality, he knows how to handle TV.

    I am genuinely interested in how this plays out. I think all this prosecution stuff is bunk. Even if the Orange One is convicted, Biden will pardon him because that’s how the deal works; that way he is also protected from any liability for anything he does (including potential war crimes) during his presidency.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @dfordoom
    @Talha


    He might even get a show on Fox or something.
     
    No major media outfit is going to take the risk of employing Trump. They'd be risking losing all their advertising revenue.

    Biden will pardon him because that’s how the deal works; that way he is also protected from any liability for anything he does (including potential war crimes) during his presidency.
     
    Yep.

    Trump will simply be punished by being cancelled.
  20. I don’t think Twitter bans Trump. They already went way past the line in an effort to defeat Trump at all costs. With Trump gone it would just be a blue-haired echo chamber.

    Hardly any other Republicans politicians say anything interesting.

    Cernovich and Posobiec remain. If either of those two get banned, all bets are off.

    • Replies: @dfordoom
    @DanHessinMD


    I don’t think Twitter bans Trump. They already went way past the line in an effort to defeat Trump at all costs. With Trump gone it would just be a blue-haired echo chamber.
     
    Somehow I think the people who run Twitter will see that as a feature rather than a bug.
  21. Trump went with Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell to Republican Party Conservative Island and they did unspeakable things and a good amount of White male centrists and White male independents and White male moderates and White male middle-of-the-roaders and White male ordinary voters and White Core American male voters refused to vote for Trump and that sank Trump.

    Trump went Republican Conservative Mammonite and White Core American male voters said screw off.

    Biden got almost 80 million votes and Trump got almost 74 million votes but Biden beat the Hell out of Trump on voter share and the voter share in the crucially important Electoral College states.

    Trump and Kushner and the Republican Party Ruling Class told a certain WHITE MALE CENTRIST INDEPENDENT voter cohort to screw off and that voter cohort stayed at home or voted heavily for the shady money-grubbing law firm of Biden Harris.

    The law firm of Biden Harris only represents the donors and the clients of Biden Harris and all other non-client factions are forgotten or attacked by the sweet and lovely lawyers at Biden Harris.

    White Core America will challenge the evil Globalizer Mammonites in the Republican Party and the Democrat Party and White Core America will represent the interests of the historic American nation and the future American nation and the United States of America.

    • Replies: @Authenticjazzman
    @Charles Pewitt

    " Biden got almost 80 million votes"

    Any fool who believes this nonsense is not intelligent enough to be voting period.

    Counting only LEGAL votes JB did not get half as many.

    AJM "Mensa" qualified since 1973, airborne trained US Army vet, and pro Jazz artist.

    Replies: @Charles Pewitt, @Tom Rogers

  22. So the America First agenda– immigration controls, no foreign wars, reverence for the historic American nation– will be yoked to the elderly orange man and all his baggage for the next decade or so. That means America First will have a real hard time bringing in the white women who will never get past the Access Hollywood tape.

    • Replies: @216
    @Ximenes

    Right-populism across the Western world does worse with women and white-collar voters than it does with men and blue-collar voters.

    , @TomSchmidt
    @Ximenes

    A higher percentage of white women voted for Trump this time than last time. If only white women voted, Trump wins in a landslide. I know a few who held their noses and voted for him, because the crime wave unleashed by BLM scared the crap out of them.

    Trump dropped amongst white men,the only group where his percentage went down. Maybe if he had shut down critical race theory i 2017? Banned H1B?

    Replies: @ThreeCranes

    , @V. K. Ovelund
    @Ximenes


    That means America First will have a real hard time bringing in the white women who will never get past the Access Hollywood tape.
     
    Gentlemanly behavior is good. President Trump is no gentleman. That's bad. However, as a rule, women are unwilling and unable to explain how women perceive something like the Access Hollywood tape.

    A man that takes at face value a woman's verbalized reaction—especially her verbalized reaction before an audience—to the Access Hollywood tape will have difficulty understanding how women actually think and behave.

    How many stories have you read about female prison guards (or female attorneys) having affairs with maximum-security male prison inmates? Why did the novel and movie Fifty Shades of Grey (which I have neither read nor seen) retain such a huge audience? Who were Plutarch's Sabine women anyway, and why did they side with their Roman ravishers?

    The modern world would be kinder and less confusing if modern people would respect the extent to which men and women fundamentally differ, and to which men and women do not and will never think alike.

    In short, I wouldn't worry too much about the future effects of the Access Hollywood tape. Except for men like you and me that worry about the general coarsening of the culture, no one will much care about it.

  23. Anon[240] • Disclaimer says:

    It would be interesting to see a map that displays in red only the congressional districts that voted most lopsidedly in favor of of Republicans and Trump. This would serve as a reference for places one might relocate to. Of course it would not constitute a complete guide, because area X would have a different kind if society than area Y. One person viewing the map might place importance upon good hunting and fishing, whereas others would be drawn to decent schools or health care. Everyone would want to have it all; sorry, but Norway is not available.

  24. @Talha
    @res

    He might even get a show on Fox or something. The guy is already a media personality, he knows how to handle TV.

    I am genuinely interested in how this plays out. I think all this prosecution stuff is bunk. Even if the Orange One is convicted, Biden will pardon him because that's how the deal works; that way he is also protected from any liability for anything he does (including potential war crimes) during his presidency.

    Peace.

    Replies: @dfordoom

    He might even get a show on Fox or something.

    No major media outfit is going to take the risk of employing Trump. They’d be risking losing all their advertising revenue.

    Biden will pardon him because that’s how the deal works; that way he is also protected from any liability for anything he does (including potential war crimes) during his presidency.

    Yep.

    Trump will simply be punished by being cancelled.

  25. @Charles Pewitt
    https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/1331044277573578752?s=20

    Trump went with Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell to Republican Party Conservative Island and they did unspeakable things and a good amount of White male centrists and White male independents and White male moderates and White male middle-of-the-roaders and White male ordinary voters and White Core American male voters refused to vote for Trump and that sank Trump.

    Trump went Republican Conservative Mammonite and White Core American male voters said screw off.

    Biden got almost 80 million votes and Trump got almost 74 million votes but Biden beat the Hell out of Trump on voter share and the voter share in the crucially important Electoral College states.

    Trump and Kushner and the Republican Party Ruling Class told a certain WHITE MALE CENTRIST INDEPENDENT voter cohort to screw off and that voter cohort stayed at home or voted heavily for the shady money-grubbing law firm of Biden Harris.

    The law firm of Biden Harris only represents the donors and the clients of Biden Harris and all other non-client factions are forgotten or attacked by the sweet and lovely lawyers at Biden Harris.

    White Core America will challenge the evil Globalizer Mammonites in the Republican Party and the Democrat Party and White Core America will represent the interests of the historic American nation and the future American nation and the United States of America.

    Replies: @Authenticjazzman

    ” Biden got almost 80 million votes”

    Any fool who believes this nonsense is not intelligent enough to be voting period.

    Counting only LEGAL votes JB did not get half as many.

    AJM “Mensa” qualified since 1973, airborne trained US Army vet, and pro Jazz artist.

    • Troll: Corvinus
    • Replies: @Charles Pewitt
    @Authenticjazzman

    I said:


    "Biden got almost 80 million votes..."

     

    Mr. Authenticjazzman says:

    Any fool who believes this nonsense is not intelligent enough to be voting period.

    Counting only LEGAL votes JB did not get half as many.

    Some guy on the internet says:

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1331261330859438080?s=20

    Replies: @Authenticjazzman

    , @Tom Rogers
    @Authenticjazzman

    You're "Mensa qualified [sic]" but can't spell and you are not familiar with the basics of grammar.

    What exactly does "Mensa qualified" actually mean, anyway? To my knowledge, Mensa don't offer qualifications and membership of Mensa is not, in itself, a qualification.

    Which national Mensa are you in? American Mensa? American Mensa is not a high IQ organisation. Unlike British Mensa, they accept academic scores as evidence of IQ, which means that many [most?] of their members have not actually undertaken an IQ test.

  26. @DanHessinMD
    I don't think Twitter bans Trump. They already went way past the line in an effort to defeat Trump at all costs. With Trump gone it would just be a blue-haired echo chamber.

    Hardly any other Republicans politicians say anything interesting.

    Cernovich and Posobiec remain. If either of those two get banned, all bets are off.

    Replies: @dfordoom

    I don’t think Twitter bans Trump. They already went way past the line in an effort to defeat Trump at all costs. With Trump gone it would just be a blue-haired echo chamber.

    Somehow I think the people who run Twitter will see that as a feature rather than a bug.

  27. GOPe taking a dive in the Georgia runoffs. Makes sense when you realize the other side has Wall Street, Big Tech and Woke Capital as a whole. Also the FBI and CIA if you’re a Republicans who is blackmailable.

    Looks like Kemp and Raffensperger want to lose the runoffs too. https://t.co/I8le1BubYx— Scott Greer 6’2” IQ 187 Whitepilled (@ScottMGreer) November 24, 2020

  28. @A123
    AE,

    Have you seen specific statistics on "under-voting" where the only the Presidential race was marked?

    It would be interesting to compare the count and split of "under-vote" ballots from 2016 versus 2020.
    ____

    For Georgia 2020 there were 97,600 "under-vote" ballots cast only for the Presidency. The split is: (1)
    -- 96,800 -- Biden
    --       800 -- Trump

    No one rational can possibly believe that a 99.2%/0.8% split is the result of a human voting behaviour.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Alexander Turok

    Source? All I found is something saying Biden got 100,000 more votes than Ossoff. That’s not the same as “under-voting,” as that would also include anyone who voted for Biden but Republican down-ballot.

  29. Trump will be the undisputed king of the party

    Trump is an old man. Do you really think he still has long-term political ambitions? And he has the attention span of a six-week-old kitten. Do you think he’s even capable of having long-term political ambitions?

    Over the next few years I expect Trump to play a lot of golf.

  30. Conservatives are making a mistake to not accept the loss, and then try to sever the center and far left.

    In 2010 the GOP benefited from high base turnout, and divisions within the Dem party leading to low turnout.

    If not for flawed candidates, the GOP could have taken the Senate as well that year.

    Dem House 2016 61 mln
    Dem House 2018 60 mln

    GOP House 2016 63 mln
    GOP House 2018 50 mln

    Trump 2020 74 mln

    If 70 mln show up in 2022, its an easy victory

  31. 2008 Dem House 65 mln
    2010 Dem House 39 mln

  32. @Ximenes
    So the America First agenda-- immigration controls, no foreign wars, reverence for the historic American nation-- will be yoked to the elderly orange man and all his baggage for the next decade or so. That means America First will have a real hard time bringing in the white women who will never get past the Access Hollywood tape.

    Replies: @216, @TomSchmidt, @V. K. Ovelund

    Right-populism across the Western world does worse with women and white-collar voters than it does with men and blue-collar voters.

  33. @Ximenes
    So the America First agenda-- immigration controls, no foreign wars, reverence for the historic American nation-- will be yoked to the elderly orange man and all his baggage for the next decade or so. That means America First will have a real hard time bringing in the white women who will never get past the Access Hollywood tape.

    Replies: @216, @TomSchmidt, @V. K. Ovelund

    A higher percentage of white women voted for Trump this time than last time. If only white women voted, Trump wins in a landslide. I know a few who held their noses and voted for him, because the crime wave unleashed by BLM scared the crap out of them.

    Trump dropped amongst white men,the only group where his percentage went down. Maybe if he had shut down critical race theory i 2017? Banned H1B?

    • Replies: @ThreeCranes
    @TomSchmidt

    Maybe white women voted for Trump because they were scared straight by Antifa thuggery while as many white men didn't vote for Trump because he refused to take a firm stand against them, as in call in the National Guard and order them to fire live rounds into their sorry asses.

    Men and women being who they are and all, women cringing and men respecting a show of strength.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

  34. @Almost Missouri
    There is known widespread violence (up to and including murder), doxxing, harassment, and disemployment of Trump supporters. Now after you vote, a stranger with a clipboard approaches you and asks who you voted for. How will you answer?

    Of course, most AE commenters are brass-balled alpha males, so the answer would be "Trumphitler!" followed by a choice vulgarity, then getting the pollstress's digits. But consider that not all voters are the same. Your wife, for instance, may not fancy the soyface pollster writing down her license plate for later use.

    Multiple studies have shown the Shy Tory is real and substantial, and perhaps never more substantial than today. And now we're going to take exit polls seriously? How can we talk about 3% or 4% exit poll variances when Shy Tories could be double or triple that?

    Trump will remain the implicit leader of the Republican party. ... If Republicans lose both seats, however, Trump will be the undisputed king of the party, Republican minorities in House and Senate taking their public cues for criticism from him.
     
    I dunno man. Many (most?) Republicans seemed to do their best to avoid taking any cues from Trump when he was in the Oval Office. Now they're going to pay obeisance when he's gone?

    I mean, you're right in the sense that historical GOPe-ism has no future, while populism remains popular. So if they knew what was good for them, the GOP certainly would be more Trump-ist (2016 edition) if not actually deferential to the man himself. But if the GOP knew what was good for them, they would not have done most of what they did in the last thirty years.

    Replies: @Diversity Heretic, @Achmed E. Newman, @obwandiyag, @MBlanc46

    The adjusted exit polls or the real exit polls.

  35. @Almost Missouri
    There is known widespread violence (up to and including murder), doxxing, harassment, and disemployment of Trump supporters. Now after you vote, a stranger with a clipboard approaches you and asks who you voted for. How will you answer?

    Of course, most AE commenters are brass-balled alpha males, so the answer would be "Trumphitler!" followed by a choice vulgarity, then getting the pollstress's digits. But consider that not all voters are the same. Your wife, for instance, may not fancy the soyface pollster writing down her license plate for later use.

    Multiple studies have shown the Shy Tory is real and substantial, and perhaps never more substantial than today. And now we're going to take exit polls seriously? How can we talk about 3% or 4% exit poll variances when Shy Tories could be double or triple that?

    Trump will remain the implicit leader of the Republican party. ... If Republicans lose both seats, however, Trump will be the undisputed king of the party, Republican minorities in House and Senate taking their public cues for criticism from him.
     
    I dunno man. Many (most?) Republicans seemed to do their best to avoid taking any cues from Trump when he was in the Oval Office. Now they're going to pay obeisance when he's gone?

    I mean, you're right in the sense that historical GOPe-ism has no future, while populism remains popular. So if they knew what was good for them, the GOP certainly would be more Trump-ist (2016 edition) if not actually deferential to the man himself. But if the GOP knew what was good for them, they would not have done most of what they did in the last thirty years.

    Replies: @Diversity Heretic, @Achmed E. Newman, @obwandiyag, @MBlanc46

    As long as corporate America keeps financing the Repubs, the Repubs will do corporate America’s bidding. Populists only have votes, not large campaign donations.

  36. @Diversity Heretic
    One problem Trump will have as leader of the opposition is the fact that he will face a large number of civil suits and criminal prosecutions as a warning to any other billiionaire who fancies doing what Trump did. These prosecutions may extend to his children and I think that you'll see an effort to purge former Trump staffers and political appointees from "polite" Washington society. I don't think that it's impossible that Trump will be forced into exile. I wonder if he can seek political asylum in Slovenia based on his marriage to Melania? Or maybe Vladimir Putin can offer him asylum in Russia and he can have an appartment next to Edward Snowden!

    Replies: @brabantian, @MBlanc46

    Anyone making book on whether Trump ends up in prison?

  37. @TomSchmidt
    @Ximenes

    A higher percentage of white women voted for Trump this time than last time. If only white women voted, Trump wins in a landslide. I know a few who held their noses and voted for him, because the crime wave unleashed by BLM scared the crap out of them.

    Trump dropped amongst white men,the only group where his percentage went down. Maybe if he had shut down critical race theory i 2017? Banned H1B?

    Replies: @ThreeCranes

    Maybe white women voted for Trump because they were scared straight by Antifa thuggery while as many white men didn’t vote for Trump because he refused to take a firm stand against them, as in call in the National Guard and order them to fire live rounds into their sorry asses.

    Men and women being who they are and all, women cringing and men respecting a show of strength.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    @ThreeCranes

    My wife was all in favor of crushing AntiFA under tanks. I thought it a trap set by the left to show that Trump was really the dictator they seem to want.

    Really, forget about calling in the National Guard. How hard would it have been to indict a few people? That's entirely within the bounds of law and generally unquestioned and never happened. And now, never will.

    I hope JohnDurham enjoys the money he made.

    Replies: @dfordoom

  38. @Ximenes
    So the America First agenda-- immigration controls, no foreign wars, reverence for the historic American nation-- will be yoked to the elderly orange man and all his baggage for the next decade or so. That means America First will have a real hard time bringing in the white women who will never get past the Access Hollywood tape.

    Replies: @216, @TomSchmidt, @V. K. Ovelund

    That means America First will have a real hard time bringing in the white women who will never get past the Access Hollywood tape.

    Gentlemanly behavior is good. President Trump is no gentleman. That’s bad. However, as a rule, women are unwilling and unable to explain how women perceive something like the Access Hollywood tape.

    [MORE]

    A man that takes at face value a woman’s verbalized reaction—especially her verbalized reaction before an audience—to the Access Hollywood tape will have difficulty understanding how women actually think and behave.

    How many stories have you read about female prison guards (or female attorneys) having affairs with maximum-security male prison inmates? Why did the novel and movie Fifty Shades of Grey (which I have neither read nor seen) retain such a huge audience? Who were Plutarch’s Sabine women anyway, and why did they side with their Roman ravishers?

    The modern world would be kinder and less confusing if modern people would respect the extent to which men and women fundamentally differ, and to which men and women do not and will never think alike.

    In short, I wouldn’t worry too much about the future effects of the Access Hollywood tape. Except for men like you and me that worry about the general coarsening of the culture, no one will much care about it.

  39. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    You'd have to be a nut to deny the fraud.

    I'll wait till Richard Baris weighs in, but I have a dang hard time believing that independents broke hard for Trump in Florida, Iowa, and Ohio but not Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. It makes zero sense; it's never happened before either. Independents in Florida, a state mixed between Southerners and cultural Easterners, are representative of independents in Georgia as well as PA an the Midwest. Independents in Iowa are representative of Wisconsin, and the rest of the Midwest. Independents in Ohio are representative of PA. The very idea that Iowa and Ohio could break hard one way, cutting totally against WI, MI, and PA is completely unprecedented and statistically hokum.

    These states always go close together. Now, Ohio's tendencies are a bit goofy, but they're at least clear: when it goes Republican, it usually goes by several points. When it goes Democrat, it usually goes by a very close margin. But, either way, the rest of the Big Ten country follows it closely. When Ohio is a big Republican blowout, PA is a close Republican win. This year makes zero sense, and I find it basically impossible that Mahoning County and Lorain County would flip red while Trump (supposedly) lost some ground in parts of rural western PA while also losing Erie. These voters represent each other! But the reason is obvious: Ohio has cleaned up its voting act in Cleveland, etc, while the PA State Supreme Court and Secretary of State basically legalized mail-in fraud.

    On that note, just yesterday the PA State Supreme Court ruled that it's okay for ballots to be illegal as long as they're illegal in a "technical" sense. https://triblive.com/local/pa-supreme-court-says-undated-mail-in-ballots-in-ziccarelli-case-can-be-counted/

    And that's before I get to a whole host of other statistical impossibilities that happened in 2020, and 2020 alone. My personal favorite being the fact that black turnout was meh pretty much everywhere except for, you know, the most important cities in GA, PA, WI, and MI. There it was higher than it was for Obama. This from a demographic that is HIGHLY representative of itself nationwide, and which has NEVER acted that way before.

    Tell you something else: right now I'm working on figuring out bellwether county accuracy in the 1960 election. I think it's gonna be around 5o to 60%. That's really bad; the 150 or so best bellwether counties usually average around 85%, and the best average over 98%. But it would make sense for them to go to about 50% in 1960, because JFK and Nixon were both mobbed up an both were stealing votes; JFK stole Texas and Chicago, and Nixon was very good friends with Santo Trafficante in Florida and Mickey Cohen in LA.

    This year we had the 19 most accurate counties (since 1980) go 1/18, with the 1 being a Washington state county that probably had an influx of wealthy liberals escaping the chaos of Seattle. And the 174 most accurate counties since 1976 dropped from an average of 85% to 16%. Simply amazing that anyone could believe this crap.

    In reality, in a fair election, Trump probably loses NH and MN, but he wins NV (even with the fraud, NV voted well to the right of the national average), MI (by a close margin), WI, and PA - the latter by at least 100,000 votes. AZ, I think, would have been close since voter registration trends within the 2016-20 cycle favored Dems there. Also, the AZ Democrats brilliantly put weed on the ballot.

    Speaking of voter registration trends, those are highly predictive and have pretty much never have been wrong - you know, except for this year, in like 4 states. Ridiculous - how could anyone believe this nonsense?

    Sorry for the length, sorta, but it was worth it.

    Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Corvinus

    Hat Tips –> Anon[314], Jack D., Ali Choudhury

    (There own words and ideas, which are relevant here and make critical points)

    The huge numbers of absentee votes have thrown conservatives for a loop, because they’ve made the vote counting process much less intuitive than it was in previous elections. The procedures for counting the absentee votes vary substantially between states, between counties in the same state, and even between municipalities in the same county. So the timing and granularity of vote count reports was different from one place to the next, generating suspicion and confusion.

    The confusion was exacerbated because it just took way longer to count the vastly larger numbers of these ballots. Laws that absentee ballots could not be counted before election day suddenly were much more relevant and resulted in delayed reporting. Some of these “late night vote dumps” were in fact reports of votes counted by large numbers of people working continuously from the moment they were legally allowed to start counting. It just took them a long time to finish.

    The real story may turn out to be that mass absentee balloting is just inherently better for the Democrats. It will be hard to put that genie back into the bottle. [And] Trump knew that the mail in votes favored Democrats so even before the election he started sowing [doubt] about them, knowing that in the swing states he would “win” on election night and then lose later on once the absentee ballots were counted.

    The problem with this is that, despite all the hand waving, no one has any substantial proof that this actually happened on a large scale. If there was some kind of vast conspiracy, someone would have talked by now. All the “evidence” offered by Trump and by conspiracy theorists here and elsewhere has not really panned out or was just blowing smoke to begin with. It is desirable to yell the election was stolen since it keeps the angry base more inclined to give donations.

    • Agree: dfordoom
    • Replies: @V. K. Ovelund
    @Corvinus


    If there was some kind of vast conspiracy, someone would have talked by now. All the “evidence” offered by Trump and by conspiracy theorists here and elsewhere has not really panned out or was just blowing smoke to begin with.
     
    That is my impression, too.

    The problem with this is that, despite all the hand waving, no one has any substantial proof that this actually happened on a large scale.
     
    After a Democrat has purposely arranged matters to make it impractical or impossible to detect whether he cheats, one may reasonably assume that he cheats.

    Would one agree to play tennis with these Democrats? No? Why not?

    Because they hit the ball out while insisting that it was in and then, when you object, start cutting holes in the net.

    I did not even especially want Donald Trump to win reëlection (though I did vote for him), but this election has been unfair on multiple levels. The whole four years of resistance against Trump has been unfair—not just to him but to the millions of us that felt in 2016 that we had no one else to whom to turn. Trump is vulgar, undisciplined, incontinent and fat; but the Russia hoax, the Ukraine impeachment and the COVID election swindle have all been undeserved.

    It's not right. Why should I be happy about it? Democracy requires opponents that are moderately sportsmanlike and are willing to play by the rules.

    Replies: @Corvinus

    , @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    @Corvinus

    Those people you cite are wrong, if these are actually their ideas.


    The huge numbers of absentee votes have thrown conservatives for a loop, because they’ve made the vote counting process much less intuitive than it was in previous elections.
     
    Let me ask you: if there is no problem with signature matching, then why have county and state officials in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada refused to let signatures be matched?

    And why, exactly, was it necessary for the Pennsylvania Secretary of State - in defiance of PA state law - to order counties to cure ballots, accept late ballots, accept unverified ballots, and commit various other infractions of that state's laws? Why did Democrats in Wayne County feel obliged to threaten officials who demanded an audit?


    The problem with this is that, despite all the hand waving, no one has any substantial proof that this actually happened on a large scale.
     
    This is a thoroughly faggoty claim. https://hereistheevidence.com/

    It just took them a long time to finish.
     
    My gosh, this is asinine. They did not work continuously. They stopped the count, for hours at a time, or days in the case of Nevada.

    If there was some kind of vast conspiracy, someone would have talked by now.
     
    Do you know how a criminal conspiracy works?

    Moreover, it doesn't take a "vast conspiracy" to harvest or fraudulently submit enough ballots to make a dent in a race. It takes what happened in, say, Pennsylvania: state officials tacitly legalizing ballots that are IMPOSSIBLE TO VERIFY. That allows for very local people in Democrat counties to submit fraudulent ballots without having to talk to anyone else.

    It's been three weeks. How long did it take us to find out what happened with 9/11, or with the Kennedy assassination? A lot longer than three weeks. Gee, I wonder if that's why courts and Biden are trying to run out the clock?

    You also have no ability to answer the statistical impossibilities.

    Replies: @Corvinus, @A123, @iffen

    , @anon
    @Corvinus

    . If there was some kind of vast conspiracy, someone would have talked by now.

    Lol, why? Why would people who have committed multiple state and Federal felonies blab about it long before the statute of limitations has run out?

    Oh, and what's "vast" mean in this context? There are multiple conspiracies from the 20th century that involved fewer than 100 people, are they "vast"? There are others that involved thousands, are they "vast"? What's the numeric threshold for "vast"?

    Is your commentary vast? Or only half vast?

    lol.

    Replies: @Corvinus

  40. @neutral

    whether Big Tech puts profits or ideology first in the next couple of months
     
    The thing is that ideology increasingly is what is going to determine profits going forward, that is why "get woke go broke" is false. You cannot separate Big Tech from the regime any more one could say the Soviet tractor industry was independent of the politburo.

    Replies: @red6020

    The thing is that ideology increasingly is what is going to determine profits going forward, that is why “get woke go broke” is false.

    I gently disagree with this. “Get woke go broke” is false, but for other reasons.

    Personally, I think monopoly power is far more relevant. There’s just not competition in the marketplace in almost every sector of the economy. What “competition” exists is usually between a handful of firms. Twitter has no real social media competitors. If you’re looking for a short-message social medium, you have Gab and Parler. Those platforms are essentially dead and experience short bursts of life only when Twitter makes some new step in censorship, then swiftly die down again.

    For what it’s worth, I think the solution is to make Twitter interoperable with other networks, much like Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile must be interoperable in phone networks.

    If you don’t break up these monopolies, they’ll be a government unto themselves pushing leftist degeneracy on us all.

  41. @Corvinus
    @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    Hat Tips --> Anon[314], Jack D., Ali Choudhury

    (There own words and ideas, which are relevant here and make critical points)

    The huge numbers of absentee votes have thrown conservatives for a loop, because they’ve made the vote counting process much less intuitive than it was in previous elections. The procedures for counting the absentee votes vary substantially between states, between counties in the same state, and even between municipalities in the same county. So the timing and granularity of vote count reports was different from one place to the next, generating suspicion and confusion.

    The confusion was exacerbated because it just took way longer to count the vastly larger numbers of these ballots. Laws that absentee ballots could not be counted before election day suddenly were much more relevant and resulted in delayed reporting. Some of these “late night vote dumps” were in fact reports of votes counted by large numbers of people working continuously from the moment they were legally allowed to start counting. It just took them a long time to finish.

    The real story may turn out to be that mass absentee balloting is just inherently better for the Democrats. It will be hard to put that genie back into the bottle. [And] Trump knew that the mail in votes favored Democrats so even before the election he started sowing [doubt] about them, knowing that in the swing states he would “win” on election night and then lose later on once the absentee ballots were counted.

    The problem with this is that, despite all the hand waving, no one has any substantial proof that this actually happened on a large scale. If there was some kind of vast conspiracy, someone would have talked by now. All the “evidence” offered by Trump and by conspiracy theorists here and elsewhere has not really panned out or was just blowing smoke to begin with. It is desirable to yell the election was stolen since it keeps the angry base more inclined to give donations.

    Replies: @V. K. Ovelund, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @anon

    If there was some kind of vast conspiracy, someone would have talked by now. All the “evidence” offered by Trump and by conspiracy theorists here and elsewhere has not really panned out or was just blowing smoke to begin with.

    That is my impression, too.

    The problem with this is that, despite all the hand waving, no one has any substantial proof that this actually happened on a large scale.

    After a Democrat has purposely arranged matters to make it impractical or impossible to detect whether he cheats, one may reasonably assume that he cheats.

    Would one agree to play tennis with these Democrats? No? Why not?

    Because they hit the ball out while insisting that it was in and then, when you object, start cutting holes in the net.

    I did not even especially want Donald Trump to win reëlection (though I did vote for him), but this election has been unfair on multiple levels. The whole four years of resistance against Trump has been unfair—not just to him but to the millions of us that felt in 2016 that we had no one else to whom to turn. Trump is vulgar, undisciplined, incontinent and fat; but the Russia hoax, the Ukraine impeachment and the COVID election swindle have all been undeserved.

    It’s not right. Why should I be happy about it? Democracy requires opponents that are moderately sportsmanlike and are willing to play by the rules.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @V. K. Ovelund

    "The whole four years of resistance against Trump has been unfair"

    He brought it upon himself.

    "but the Russia hoax, the Ukraine impeachment and the COVID election swindle have all been undeserved."

    Not a hoax, he was impeached, and Covid is definitively real. Now, Epstein didn't kill himself, but Trump lost the election.

  42. @Corvinus
    @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    Hat Tips --> Anon[314], Jack D., Ali Choudhury

    (There own words and ideas, which are relevant here and make critical points)

    The huge numbers of absentee votes have thrown conservatives for a loop, because they’ve made the vote counting process much less intuitive than it was in previous elections. The procedures for counting the absentee votes vary substantially between states, between counties in the same state, and even between municipalities in the same county. So the timing and granularity of vote count reports was different from one place to the next, generating suspicion and confusion.

    The confusion was exacerbated because it just took way longer to count the vastly larger numbers of these ballots. Laws that absentee ballots could not be counted before election day suddenly were much more relevant and resulted in delayed reporting. Some of these “late night vote dumps” were in fact reports of votes counted by large numbers of people working continuously from the moment they were legally allowed to start counting. It just took them a long time to finish.

    The real story may turn out to be that mass absentee balloting is just inherently better for the Democrats. It will be hard to put that genie back into the bottle. [And] Trump knew that the mail in votes favored Democrats so even before the election he started sowing [doubt] about them, knowing that in the swing states he would “win” on election night and then lose later on once the absentee ballots were counted.

    The problem with this is that, despite all the hand waving, no one has any substantial proof that this actually happened on a large scale. If there was some kind of vast conspiracy, someone would have talked by now. All the “evidence” offered by Trump and by conspiracy theorists here and elsewhere has not really panned out or was just blowing smoke to begin with. It is desirable to yell the election was stolen since it keeps the angry base more inclined to give donations.

    Replies: @V. K. Ovelund, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @anon

    Those people you cite are wrong, if these are actually their ideas.

    The huge numbers of absentee votes have thrown conservatives for a loop, because they’ve made the vote counting process much less intuitive than it was in previous elections.

    Let me ask you: if there is no problem with signature matching, then why have county and state officials in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada refused to let signatures be matched?

    And why, exactly, was it necessary for the Pennsylvania Secretary of State – in defiance of PA state law – to order counties to cure ballots, accept late ballots, accept unverified ballots, and commit various other infractions of that state’s laws? Why did Democrats in Wayne County feel obliged to threaten officials who demanded an audit?

    The problem with this is that, despite all the hand waving, no one has any substantial proof that this actually happened on a large scale.

    This is a thoroughly faggoty claim. https://hereistheevidence.com/

    It just took them a long time to finish.

    My gosh, this is asinine. They did not work continuously. They stopped the count, for hours at a time, or days in the case of Nevada.

    If there was some kind of vast conspiracy, someone would have talked by now.

    Do you know how a criminal conspiracy works?

    Moreover, it doesn’t take a “vast conspiracy” to harvest or fraudulently submit enough ballots to make a dent in a race. It takes what happened in, say, Pennsylvania: state officials tacitly legalizing ballots that are IMPOSSIBLE TO VERIFY. That allows for very local people in Democrat counties to submit fraudulent ballots without having to talk to anyone else.

    It’s been three weeks. How long did it take us to find out what happened with 9/11, or with the Kennedy assassination? A lot longer than three weeks. Gee, I wonder if that’s why courts and Biden are trying to run out the clock?

    You also have no ability to answer the statistical impossibilities.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    "Those people you cite are wrong, if these are actually their ideas."

    Actually, their thoughts are on the mark.

    "Let me ask you: if there is no problem with signature matching, then why have county and state officials in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada refused to let signatures be matched?"

    It depends if it has been codified into law. Basically, there are different philosophies about examining signatures.

    Source --> https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/key-battleground-states-dont-require-signature-matching-mail-voting


    In Wisconsin, "You don’t need to worry about if your signature is going to match and making your signature perfect," Magney explained. "That’s not what we do in Wisconsin, when you request an absentee ballot, you provide a copy of your photo ID and that’s our security involved in it."

    In North Carolina, the executive director of the North Carolina State Board of Elections, wrote in a memo to all local county boards that a voter's signature "shall not be compared with the voter's signature on file because this is not required by North Carolina law. County boards shall accept the voter's signature on the container-return envelope if it appears to be made by the voter, meaning the signature on the envelope appears to be the name of the voter and not some other person. Absent clear evidence to the contrary, the county board shall presume that the voter's signature is that of the voter, even if the signature is illegible."
     

    Why did I illustrate North Carolina? Well, in Pennsylvania, the State Supreme Court concluded that there was no clause in the state’s election code that allowed ballots to be rejected based on signature comparisons, and if the state’s lawmakers wanted one, they would have included it. “It is not our role under our tripartite system of governance to engage in judicial legislation and to rewrite a statute in order to supply terms which are not present therein, and we will not do so in this instance,” the court wrote.

    What about Georgia? Well, under state law, the identification or signature of voters is checked twice during the absentee voting process, and an accepted ballot can’t be traced back to a signed envelope once the two are separated. The process protects ballot secrecy.

    In Nevada, "signature verification is performed on every ballot received. If the signature is missing or if the signature on the ballot return envelope does not match the signature on file for the voter, the ballot will not be counted until the voter verifies their signature." But the state has procedures in place to rectify the problem, apparently allowing the voter to come down and handle the situation themselves.

    A point to NOTICE--A political scientist at Carroll College found that 97 percent of rejected signatures are likely to be authentic—or, for every invalid ballot, 32 valid ones are thrown out.

    https://lawyerscommittee.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Ohio.pdf

    "And why, exactly, was it necessary for the Pennsylvania Secretary of State – in defiance of PA state law – to order counties to cure ballots, accept late ballots, accept unverified ballots, and commit various other infractions of that state’s laws?"

    An accusation that has yet to be proven in a court of law.

    "Why did Democrats in Wayne County feel obliged to threaten officials who demanded an audit?"

    Not Democrats, but radicals who are Democrats. There is a difference.

    https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/24/attorney-general-investigating-threats-wayne-county-canvassers/6405964002/

    I am certain you have the same level of disgust with similar threats made in Georgia, right, by Trump radicals towards two lifelong GOP officials there?

    https://www.11alive.com/article/news/politics/elections/gabriel-sterling-threats-georgia-election-official/85-42ad50cb-f123-4b35-938e-9b513cecefb1

    Regarding the hereistheevidence site, here is one source found there.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyrCLH8YtzI&feature=emb_title

    It is a news report about a woman who was concerned about “ballot envelopes visibly identify the voter’s party affiliation”. Except it is a code to make sure the people get their ballots for the proper primary according to Florida State Law. There was no proof here that the ballots themselves were compromised or discarded by election officials. In other words, it is “suggested” that “possibly” there was some sort of malfeasance. So, while a concern about this labeling is legitimate, it does NOT constitute evidence in a court of law of voter suppression, tampering, or removal.

    Here is another source found there.

    https://justthenews.com/sites/default/files/2020-11/JessyJacobAffidavit.pdf

    It is an affidavit. The person says “I directly observed, on a daily basis, City of Detroit election workers and employees coaching and trying to coach voters to vote for Joe Biden and the Democrat party. I witnessed these workers and employees encouraging voters to do a straight Democrat ballot. I witnessed these election workers and employees going over to the voting booths with voters in order to watch them vote and coach them for whom to vote.”

    This individual has made an accusation. That is NOT evidence. Had this person supplied audio or video recordings, then that would be proof. So, this person would be subject to cross examination in a court of law to determine her credibility.

    "They did not work continuously. They stopped the count, for hours at a time, or days in the case of Nevada."

    Right, it just took them a long time to finish.

    But that's OK, because your side is going to win. Next week is HUGE. After all, Sidney Powell--who wasn't let fired by the Trump team, but is just "doing her grrl pwr thang" on her own--told radio host Glenn Beck she heard that our forces confiscated the server of an electronic voting system company in Germany with alleged ties to the president’s voter fraud accusations. “The servers at Scytl in Germany were confiscated the other day,” Powell told Beck during a 15-minute conversation related to voter fraud claims made by President Trump. “I’m hearing it was our forces that got those servers, so I think the government is now working on an investigation of what really happened.” And, of course, Trump won in a landslide by earning 410 electoral college votes, and even winning California and Minnesota!

    Wait, what?

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/dominion-servers-germany-seized/


    This rumor referenced a claim that computer servers belonging to the Dominion Voting Systems and/or Scytl Secure Electronic Voting companies had supposedly been seized by the U.S. Army in Frankfurt, Germany, and the served data showed that Trump had actually won a landslide victory in the Nov. 3 election. The rumor was one no reliable news outlet gave any credence to, but nonetheless, the far-right, pro-Donald Trump OANN cable channel devoted some airtime to it, as narrated by U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert of Texas…Indeed, the claim echoed by Gohmert was a completely fabricated one. In response to that rumor, Scytl noted that they had no servers or offices in Frankfurt, nor had anything of theirs been seized from them by the U.S. military.
     
    , @A123
    @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    JB,

    Corvinus (a.k.a. Alexander Turok) is a known TROLL.

    There is a consistent cyclical pattern to his deranged & irrational behaviour. He:

    -1- Demands Evidence
    -2- Ignores Presented Facts
    -3- Refuses to Provide Evidence

    I have added both of his ID's to my Blocked Commenters list. Life is much more pleasant with his evidence-free ranting reduced to a soothing grey bar.

    PEACE 😇

    , @iffen
    @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    let signatures be matched?

    Maybe because the idea that signatures can be "matched" is nonsense. Handwriting analysis is nonsense.

    Replies: @anon

  43. anon[328] • Disclaimer says:
    @Corvinus
    @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    Hat Tips --> Anon[314], Jack D., Ali Choudhury

    (There own words and ideas, which are relevant here and make critical points)

    The huge numbers of absentee votes have thrown conservatives for a loop, because they’ve made the vote counting process much less intuitive than it was in previous elections. The procedures for counting the absentee votes vary substantially between states, between counties in the same state, and even between municipalities in the same county. So the timing and granularity of vote count reports was different from one place to the next, generating suspicion and confusion.

    The confusion was exacerbated because it just took way longer to count the vastly larger numbers of these ballots. Laws that absentee ballots could not be counted before election day suddenly were much more relevant and resulted in delayed reporting. Some of these “late night vote dumps” were in fact reports of votes counted by large numbers of people working continuously from the moment they were legally allowed to start counting. It just took them a long time to finish.

    The real story may turn out to be that mass absentee balloting is just inherently better for the Democrats. It will be hard to put that genie back into the bottle. [And] Trump knew that the mail in votes favored Democrats so even before the election he started sowing [doubt] about them, knowing that in the swing states he would “win” on election night and then lose later on once the absentee ballots were counted.

    The problem with this is that, despite all the hand waving, no one has any substantial proof that this actually happened on a large scale. If there was some kind of vast conspiracy, someone would have talked by now. All the “evidence” offered by Trump and by conspiracy theorists here and elsewhere has not really panned out or was just blowing smoke to begin with. It is desirable to yell the election was stolen since it keeps the angry base more inclined to give donations.

    Replies: @V. K. Ovelund, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @anon

    . If there was some kind of vast conspiracy, someone would have talked by now.

    Lol, why? Why would people who have committed multiple state and Federal felonies blab about it long before the statute of limitations has run out?

    Oh, and what’s “vast” mean in this context? There are multiple conspiracies from the 20th century that involved fewer than 100 people, are they “vast”? There are others that involved thousands, are they “vast”? What’s the numeric threshold for “vast”?

    Is your commentary vast? Or only half vast?

    lol.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @anon

    "Lol, why? Why would people who have committed multiple state and Federal felonies blab about it long before the statute of limitations has run out?"

    Because certain people cannot keep their mouth shut. I mean, haven't you heard the news?


    I don’t want to say too much, except that the suit alleges some really, really bad things in the form of what amounts to basically bribes and pay-to-play schemes and implicates high level DNC operatives and GOP members in Georgia. There is some really meaningful witness testimony, including a couple of whistle blowers (DNC ops that worked on this campaign) that actually admit to being complicit with vote switching and ballot stuffing.
     
    http://voxday.blogspot.com/2020/11/if-it-is-another-pol-larp.html

    "What’s the numeric threshold for “vast”?"

    In order for what the Trump team is saying occurred, we are looking at up to a thousand people in on the "steal", whether it be boots on the ground, Biden's team, and state officials.

    "Is your commentary vast? Or only half vast?"

    Mine is vastly underrated. You? Mindnumbingly overrated.
  44. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    @Corvinus

    Those people you cite are wrong, if these are actually their ideas.


    The huge numbers of absentee votes have thrown conservatives for a loop, because they’ve made the vote counting process much less intuitive than it was in previous elections.
     
    Let me ask you: if there is no problem with signature matching, then why have county and state officials in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada refused to let signatures be matched?

    And why, exactly, was it necessary for the Pennsylvania Secretary of State - in defiance of PA state law - to order counties to cure ballots, accept late ballots, accept unverified ballots, and commit various other infractions of that state's laws? Why did Democrats in Wayne County feel obliged to threaten officials who demanded an audit?


    The problem with this is that, despite all the hand waving, no one has any substantial proof that this actually happened on a large scale.
     
    This is a thoroughly faggoty claim. https://hereistheevidence.com/

    It just took them a long time to finish.
     
    My gosh, this is asinine. They did not work continuously. They stopped the count, for hours at a time, or days in the case of Nevada.

    If there was some kind of vast conspiracy, someone would have talked by now.
     
    Do you know how a criminal conspiracy works?

    Moreover, it doesn't take a "vast conspiracy" to harvest or fraudulently submit enough ballots to make a dent in a race. It takes what happened in, say, Pennsylvania: state officials tacitly legalizing ballots that are IMPOSSIBLE TO VERIFY. That allows for very local people in Democrat counties to submit fraudulent ballots without having to talk to anyone else.

    It's been three weeks. How long did it take us to find out what happened with 9/11, or with the Kennedy assassination? A lot longer than three weeks. Gee, I wonder if that's why courts and Biden are trying to run out the clock?

    You also have no ability to answer the statistical impossibilities.

    Replies: @Corvinus, @A123, @iffen

    “Those people you cite are wrong, if these are actually their ideas.”

    Actually, their thoughts are on the mark.

    “Let me ask you: if there is no problem with signature matching, then why have county and state officials in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada refused to let signatures be matched?”

    It depends if it has been codified into law. Basically, there are different philosophies about examining signatures.

    Source –> https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/key-battleground-states-dont-require-signature-matching-mail-voting

    In Wisconsin, “You don’t need to worry about if your signature is going to match and making your signature perfect,” Magney explained. “That’s not what we do in Wisconsin, when you request an absentee ballot, you provide a copy of your photo ID and that’s our security involved in it.”

    In North Carolina, the executive director of the North Carolina State Board of Elections, wrote in a memo to all local county boards that a voter’s signature “shall not be compared with the voter’s signature on file because this is not required by North Carolina law. County boards shall accept the voter’s signature on the container-return envelope if it appears to be made by the voter, meaning the signature on the envelope appears to be the name of the voter and not some other person. Absent clear evidence to the contrary, the county board shall presume that the voter’s signature is that of the voter, even if the signature is illegible.”

    Why did I illustrate North Carolina? Well, in Pennsylvania, the State Supreme Court concluded that there was no clause in the state’s election code that allowed ballots to be rejected based on signature comparisons, and if the state’s lawmakers wanted one, they would have included it. “It is not our role under our tripartite system of governance to engage in judicial legislation and to rewrite a statute in order to supply terms which are not present therein, and we will not do so in this instance,” the court wrote.

    What about Georgia? Well, under state law, the identification or signature of voters is checked twice during the absentee voting process, and an accepted ballot can’t be traced back to a signed envelope once the two are separated. The process protects ballot secrecy.

    In Nevada, “signature verification is performed on every ballot received. If the signature is missing or if the signature on the ballot return envelope does not match the signature on file for the voter, the ballot will not be counted until the voter verifies their signature.” But the state has procedures in place to rectify the problem, apparently allowing the voter to come down and handle the situation themselves.

    A point to NOTICE–A political scientist at Carroll College found that 97 percent of rejected signatures are likely to be authentic—or, for every invalid ballot, 32 valid ones are thrown out.

    https://lawyerscommittee.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Ohio.pdf

    “And why, exactly, was it necessary for the Pennsylvania Secretary of State – in defiance of PA state law – to order counties to cure ballots, accept late ballots, accept unverified ballots, and commit various other infractions of that state’s laws?”

    An accusation that has yet to be proven in a court of law.

    “Why did Democrats in Wayne County feel obliged to threaten officials who demanded an audit?”

    Not Democrats, but radicals who are Democrats. There is a difference.

    https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/24/attorney-general-investigating-threats-wayne-county-canvassers/6405964002/

    I am certain you have the same level of disgust with similar threats made in Georgia, right, by Trump radicals towards two lifelong GOP officials there?

    https://www.11alive.com/article/news/politics/elections/gabriel-sterling-threats-georgia-election-official/85-42ad50cb-f123-4b35-938e-9b513cecefb1

    Regarding the hereistheevidence site, here is one source found there.

    It is a news report about a woman who was concerned about “ballot envelopes visibly identify the voter’s party affiliation”. Except it is a code to make sure the people get their ballots for the proper primary according to Florida State Law. There was no proof here that the ballots themselves were compromised or discarded by election officials. In other words, it is “suggested” that “possibly” there was some sort of malfeasance. So, while a concern about this labeling is legitimate, it does NOT constitute evidence in a court of law of voter suppression, tampering, or removal.

    Here is another source found there.

    https://justthenews.com/sites/default/files/2020-11/JessyJacobAffidavit.pdf

    It is an affidavit. The person says “I directly observed, on a daily basis, City of Detroit election workers and employees coaching and trying to coach voters to vote for Joe Biden and the Democrat party. I witnessed these workers and employees encouraging voters to do a straight Democrat ballot. I witnessed these election workers and employees going over to the voting booths with voters in order to watch them vote and coach them for whom to vote.”

    This individual has made an accusation. That is NOT evidence. Had this person supplied audio or video recordings, then that would be proof. So, this person would be subject to cross examination in a court of law to determine her credibility.

    “They did not work continuously. They stopped the count, for hours at a time, or days in the case of Nevada.”

    Right, it just took them a long time to finish.

    But that’s OK, because your side is going to win. Next week is HUGE. After all, Sidney Powell–who wasn’t let fired by the Trump team, but is just “doing her grrl pwr thang” on her own–told radio host Glenn Beck she heard that our forces confiscated the server of an electronic voting system company in Germany with alleged ties to the president’s voter fraud accusations. “The servers at Scytl in Germany were confiscated the other day,” Powell told Beck during a 15-minute conversation related to voter fraud claims made by President Trump. “I’m hearing it was our forces that got those servers, so I think the government is now working on an investigation of what really happened.” And, of course, Trump won in a landslide by earning 410 electoral college votes, and even winning California and Minnesota!

    Wait, what?

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/dominion-servers-germany-seized/

    This rumor referenced a claim that computer servers belonging to the Dominion Voting Systems and/or Scytl Secure Electronic Voting companies had supposedly been seized by the U.S. Army in Frankfurt, Germany, and the served data showed that Trump had actually won a landslide victory in the Nov. 3 election. The rumor was one no reliable news outlet gave any credence to, but nonetheless, the far-right, pro-Donald Trump OANN cable channel devoted some airtime to it, as narrated by U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert of Texas…Indeed, the claim echoed by Gohmert was a completely fabricated one. In response to that rumor, Scytl noted that they had no servers or offices in Frankfurt, nor had anything of theirs been seized from them by the U.S. military.

    • Troll: GeneralRipper
  45. @Authenticjazzman
    @Charles Pewitt

    " Biden got almost 80 million votes"

    Any fool who believes this nonsense is not intelligent enough to be voting period.

    Counting only LEGAL votes JB did not get half as many.

    AJM "Mensa" qualified since 1973, airborne trained US Army vet, and pro Jazz artist.

    Replies: @Charles Pewitt, @Tom Rogers

    I said:

    “Biden got almost 80 million votes…”

    Mr. Authenticjazzman says:

    Any fool who believes this nonsense is not intelligent enough to be voting period.

    Counting only LEGAL votes JB did not get half as many.

    Some guy on the internet says:

    • Replies: @Authenticjazzman
    @Charles Pewitt

    Look you bloody nitwit : You are believing their propaganda. Do you not understand this?

    AJM

    Replies: @Tom Rogers

  46. @V. K. Ovelund
    @Corvinus


    If there was some kind of vast conspiracy, someone would have talked by now. All the “evidence” offered by Trump and by conspiracy theorists here and elsewhere has not really panned out or was just blowing smoke to begin with.
     
    That is my impression, too.

    The problem with this is that, despite all the hand waving, no one has any substantial proof that this actually happened on a large scale.
     
    After a Democrat has purposely arranged matters to make it impractical or impossible to detect whether he cheats, one may reasonably assume that he cheats.

    Would one agree to play tennis with these Democrats? No? Why not?

    Because they hit the ball out while insisting that it was in and then, when you object, start cutting holes in the net.

    I did not even especially want Donald Trump to win reëlection (though I did vote for him), but this election has been unfair on multiple levels. The whole four years of resistance against Trump has been unfair—not just to him but to the millions of us that felt in 2016 that we had no one else to whom to turn. Trump is vulgar, undisciplined, incontinent and fat; but the Russia hoax, the Ukraine impeachment and the COVID election swindle have all been undeserved.

    It's not right. Why should I be happy about it? Democracy requires opponents that are moderately sportsmanlike and are willing to play by the rules.

    Replies: @Corvinus

    “The whole four years of resistance against Trump has been unfair”

    He brought it upon himself.

    “but the Russia hoax, the Ukraine impeachment and the COVID election swindle have all been undeserved.”

    Not a hoax, he was impeached, and Covid is definitively real. Now, Epstein didn’t kill himself, but Trump lost the election.

    • Troll: GeneralRipper
  47. @Charles Pewitt
    @Authenticjazzman

    I said:


    "Biden got almost 80 million votes..."

     

    Mr. Authenticjazzman says:

    Any fool who believes this nonsense is not intelligent enough to be voting period.

    Counting only LEGAL votes JB did not get half as many.

    Some guy on the internet says:

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1331261330859438080?s=20

    Replies: @Authenticjazzman

    Look you bloody nitwit : You are believing their propaganda. Do you not understand this?

    AJM

    • Replies: @Tom Rogers
    @Authenticjazzman

    Learn to spell before you call other people nitwits, dickhead. I'd ask Mensa for a refund.

  48. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Almost Missouri

    Almost Missouri, your comment here (good comment in general, as usual) hit upon 2 things that I will be writing on shortly:

    1) I got talked to by a cop for my actions and alleged vulgarity* and trashing of my kid's face mask outside the school. Yeah, I thought it would be better not to show up anymore, but had to go today, and was still surprised the Brit lefty bitch I offended had to call in the law (excuse me, "School Resource Officer"). We had a pretty good chat, really.

    2) I got polled by Gallup on the phone for 45 minutes, by my estimate. It was interesting, and I'll write more about that here under the next thread it applies to. Just the gist of my take on it is that most of the questions are either only being asked to establish who I am, or are just plain stupidly made questions. There were only 1 or 2 that were real questions that made me think "that's my opinion". That's out of a hundred or more. Stupidity in polling.

    .


    * Truly, I don't remember using bad words, but women have those memories that pick up a lot of things that may or may not have been said...

    Replies: @Adam Smith

    Perhaps your alleged vulgarity was letting the holy facerag touch the ground?

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Adam Smith

    Sacre' Bleu!

    Replies: @Adam Smith

  49. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    @Corvinus

    Those people you cite are wrong, if these are actually their ideas.


    The huge numbers of absentee votes have thrown conservatives for a loop, because they’ve made the vote counting process much less intuitive than it was in previous elections.
     
    Let me ask you: if there is no problem with signature matching, then why have county and state officials in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada refused to let signatures be matched?

    And why, exactly, was it necessary for the Pennsylvania Secretary of State - in defiance of PA state law - to order counties to cure ballots, accept late ballots, accept unverified ballots, and commit various other infractions of that state's laws? Why did Democrats in Wayne County feel obliged to threaten officials who demanded an audit?


    The problem with this is that, despite all the hand waving, no one has any substantial proof that this actually happened on a large scale.
     
    This is a thoroughly faggoty claim. https://hereistheevidence.com/

    It just took them a long time to finish.
     
    My gosh, this is asinine. They did not work continuously. They stopped the count, for hours at a time, or days in the case of Nevada.

    If there was some kind of vast conspiracy, someone would have talked by now.
     
    Do you know how a criminal conspiracy works?

    Moreover, it doesn't take a "vast conspiracy" to harvest or fraudulently submit enough ballots to make a dent in a race. It takes what happened in, say, Pennsylvania: state officials tacitly legalizing ballots that are IMPOSSIBLE TO VERIFY. That allows for very local people in Democrat counties to submit fraudulent ballots without having to talk to anyone else.

    It's been three weeks. How long did it take us to find out what happened with 9/11, or with the Kennedy assassination? A lot longer than three weeks. Gee, I wonder if that's why courts and Biden are trying to run out the clock?

    You also have no ability to answer the statistical impossibilities.

    Replies: @Corvinus, @A123, @iffen

    JB,

    Corvinus (a.k.a. Alexander Turok) is a known TROLL.

    There is a consistent cyclical pattern to his deranged & irrational behaviour. He:

    -1- Demands Evidence
    -2- Ignores Presented Facts
    -3- Refuses to Provide Evidence

    I have added both of his ID’s to my Blocked Commenters list. Life is much more pleasant with his evidence-free ranting reduced to a soothing grey bar.

    PEACE 😇

    • Troll: Corvinus
  50. @Adam Smith
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Perhaps your alleged vulgarity was letting the holy facerag touch the ground?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Sacre’ Bleu!

    • Replies: @Adam Smith
    @Achmed E. Newman

    https://mk0blogmtbakervv1q9c.kinstacdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/shockedwoman-1020x510.jpg

    Qui est-ce undiapered homme?

    https://s3-prod.tirebusiness.com/s3fs-public/Bib-Mask_i.jpg

  51. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Adam Smith

    Sacre' Bleu!

    Replies: @Adam Smith

    Qui est-ce undiapered homme?

    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman
  52. @anon
    @Corvinus

    . If there was some kind of vast conspiracy, someone would have talked by now.

    Lol, why? Why would people who have committed multiple state and Federal felonies blab about it long before the statute of limitations has run out?

    Oh, and what's "vast" mean in this context? There are multiple conspiracies from the 20th century that involved fewer than 100 people, are they "vast"? There are others that involved thousands, are they "vast"? What's the numeric threshold for "vast"?

    Is your commentary vast? Or only half vast?

    lol.

    Replies: @Corvinus

    “Lol, why? Why would people who have committed multiple state and Federal felonies blab about it long before the statute of limitations has run out?”

    Because certain people cannot keep their mouth shut. I mean, haven’t you heard the news?

    I don’t want to say too much, except that the suit alleges some really, really bad things in the form of what amounts to basically bribes and pay-to-play schemes and implicates high level DNC operatives and GOP members in Georgia. There is some really meaningful witness testimony, including a couple of whistle blowers (DNC ops that worked on this campaign) that actually admit to being complicit with vote switching and ballot stuffing.

    http://voxday.blogspot.com/2020/11/if-it-is-another-pol-larp.html

    “What’s the numeric threshold for “vast”?”

    In order for what the Trump team is saying occurred, we are looking at up to a thousand people in on the “steal”, whether it be boots on the ground, Biden’s team, and state officials.

    “Is your commentary vast? Or only half vast?”

    Mine is vastly underrated. You? Mindnumbingly overrated.

  53. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    @Corvinus

    Those people you cite are wrong, if these are actually their ideas.


    The huge numbers of absentee votes have thrown conservatives for a loop, because they’ve made the vote counting process much less intuitive than it was in previous elections.
     
    Let me ask you: if there is no problem with signature matching, then why have county and state officials in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada refused to let signatures be matched?

    And why, exactly, was it necessary for the Pennsylvania Secretary of State - in defiance of PA state law - to order counties to cure ballots, accept late ballots, accept unverified ballots, and commit various other infractions of that state's laws? Why did Democrats in Wayne County feel obliged to threaten officials who demanded an audit?


    The problem with this is that, despite all the hand waving, no one has any substantial proof that this actually happened on a large scale.
     
    This is a thoroughly faggoty claim. https://hereistheevidence.com/

    It just took them a long time to finish.
     
    My gosh, this is asinine. They did not work continuously. They stopped the count, for hours at a time, or days in the case of Nevada.

    If there was some kind of vast conspiracy, someone would have talked by now.
     
    Do you know how a criminal conspiracy works?

    Moreover, it doesn't take a "vast conspiracy" to harvest or fraudulently submit enough ballots to make a dent in a race. It takes what happened in, say, Pennsylvania: state officials tacitly legalizing ballots that are IMPOSSIBLE TO VERIFY. That allows for very local people in Democrat counties to submit fraudulent ballots without having to talk to anyone else.

    It's been three weeks. How long did it take us to find out what happened with 9/11, or with the Kennedy assassination? A lot longer than three weeks. Gee, I wonder if that's why courts and Biden are trying to run out the clock?

    You also have no ability to answer the statistical impossibilities.

    Replies: @Corvinus, @A123, @iffen

    let signatures be matched?

    Maybe because the idea that signatures can be “matched” is nonsense. Handwriting analysis is nonsense.

    • Replies: @anon
    @iffen

    Maybe because the idea that signatures can be “matched” is nonsense. Handwriting analysis is nonsense.

    Banks and other institutions still maintain signature records on accounts in order to defend against fraud. Are you opposed to this also? Should anyone be able to sign off on charges to your credit accounts?

    Your objection is nonsense.

    Replies: @V. K. Ovelund

  54. anon[418] • Disclaimer says:
    @iffen
    @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    let signatures be matched?

    Maybe because the idea that signatures can be "matched" is nonsense. Handwriting analysis is nonsense.

    Replies: @anon

    Maybe because the idea that signatures can be “matched” is nonsense. Handwriting analysis is nonsense.

    Banks and other institutions still maintain signature records on accounts in order to defend against fraud. Are you opposed to this also? Should anyone be able to sign off on charges to your credit accounts?

    Your objection is nonsense.

    • Replies: @V. K. Ovelund
    @anon


    Banks and other institutions still maintain signature records on accounts in order to defend against fraud. Are you opposed to this also? Should anyone be able to sign off on charges to your credit accounts?

    Your objection is nonsense.
     
    Is it?

    That's more than I know.

    I have never known @iffen to raise a nonsensical objection before. Is there a banker in the thread? If so, how do banks do it? How well does it work?
  55. @anon
    @iffen

    Maybe because the idea that signatures can be “matched” is nonsense. Handwriting analysis is nonsense.

    Banks and other institutions still maintain signature records on accounts in order to defend against fraud. Are you opposed to this also? Should anyone be able to sign off on charges to your credit accounts?

    Your objection is nonsense.

    Replies: @V. K. Ovelund

    Banks and other institutions still maintain signature records on accounts in order to defend against fraud. Are you opposed to this also? Should anyone be able to sign off on charges to your credit accounts?

    Your objection is nonsense.

    Is it?

    That’s more than I know.

    I have never known to raise a nonsensical objection before. Is there a banker in the thread? If so, how do banks do it? How well does it work?

  56. @ThreeCranes
    @TomSchmidt

    Maybe white women voted for Trump because they were scared straight by Antifa thuggery while as many white men didn't vote for Trump because he refused to take a firm stand against them, as in call in the National Guard and order them to fire live rounds into their sorry asses.

    Men and women being who they are and all, women cringing and men respecting a show of strength.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

    My wife was all in favor of crushing AntiFA under tanks. I thought it a trap set by the left to show that Trump was really the dictator they seem to want.

    Really, forget about calling in the National Guard. How hard would it have been to indict a few people? That’s entirely within the bounds of law and generally unquestioned and never happened. And now, never will.

    I hope JohnDurham enjoys the money he made.

    • Thanks: V. K. Ovelund
    • Replies: @dfordoom
    @TomSchmidt


    My wife was all in favor of crushing AntiFA under tanks. I thought it a trap set by the left to show that Trump was really the dictator they seem to want.
     
    I think you were almost certainly correct.
  57. @TomSchmidt
    @ThreeCranes

    My wife was all in favor of crushing AntiFA under tanks. I thought it a trap set by the left to show that Trump was really the dictator they seem to want.

    Really, forget about calling in the National Guard. How hard would it have been to indict a few people? That's entirely within the bounds of law and generally unquestioned and never happened. And now, never will.

    I hope JohnDurham enjoys the money he made.

    Replies: @dfordoom

    My wife was all in favor of crushing AntiFA under tanks. I thought it a trap set by the left to show that Trump was really the dictator they seem to want.

    I think you were almost certainly correct.

  58. @Authenticjazzman
    @Charles Pewitt

    Look you bloody nitwit : You are believing their propaganda. Do you not understand this?

    AJM

    Replies: @Tom Rogers

    Learn to spell before you call other people nitwits, dickhead. I’d ask Mensa for a refund.

  59. @Authenticjazzman
    @Charles Pewitt

    " Biden got almost 80 million votes"

    Any fool who believes this nonsense is not intelligent enough to be voting period.

    Counting only LEGAL votes JB did not get half as many.

    AJM "Mensa" qualified since 1973, airborne trained US Army vet, and pro Jazz artist.

    Replies: @Charles Pewitt, @Tom Rogers

    You’re “Mensa qualified [sic]” but can’t spell and you are not familiar with the basics of grammar.

    What exactly does “Mensa qualified” actually mean, anyway? To my knowledge, Mensa don’t offer qualifications and membership of Mensa is not, in itself, a qualification.

    Which national Mensa are you in? American Mensa? American Mensa is not a high IQ organisation. Unlike British Mensa, they accept academic scores as evidence of IQ, which means that many [most?] of their members have not actually undertaken an IQ test.

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