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Applying the same happiness index as before (% very happy – % not too happy), the following graph shows self-reported happiness by frequency of religious service attendance. For contemporary relevance responses are from 2000 onward and to avoid racial confounding only non-Hispanic whites are considered:

As in the case of marital status, controlling for age does not attenuate the relationship. To the contrary, it actually modestly strengthens it, especially among younger cohorts.

Okay, but belonging to a church creates a sense of community. Maybe the benefits are entirely secular rather than spiritual.

Yeah, maybe. Score one for Pascal, then.

On the other hand, belief alone is associated with higher levels of self-reported happiness. Happiness indices by theistic orientation using the same parameters:

Ignorance is bliss? Again, maybe. Score one for Lisa, then.

Destroy marriage, destroy the church, destroy theism–if I didn’t know better, I might think immiseration was the objective. Time to start painting everything blue.

GSS variables used: ATTEND(0)(1-2)(3-4)(5-6)(7-8), GOD(1)(2)(3-5)(6), RACECEN1(1), HISPANIC(1), HAPPY, AGE

 
• Category: Culture/Society, Ideology, Science • Tags: Community, God, GSS, Religion 
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The progression of events following a Muslim terrorist attack are predictable: Extremist shoots, bombs, or runs over a bunch of civilians. Blue checkmarks preempt a backlash by executing a frontlash. The bolder ones even use the opportunity to point out how the victimized population is the real problem.

The same sort of progression followed the Christchurch massacre, albeit on a smaller scale and mostly by deplorables unworthy of verification. One especially bold Aussie even flipped the script.

That the major media obviously does not treat these things as opposite sides of the same coin is not evidence of a double standard, as is often asserted. Sure, some of the duller media mouths are so lacking in self-awareness they genuinely can’t comprehend what the comparative reactions look like to an objective observer. But in the cases of most of them, it should be taken as even more confirmation of a single standard, a standard which is arrived at by asking Who? Whom? and assigning blame and moral culpability accordingly.

Increasingly, actions don’t matter–a person’s identity is the only thing that does.

Parenthetically, this is the type of response that can only come from someone–assuming it is sincerely put forward–who has never experienced any violence in her entire life:

In a violent situation, the operative assumption of the one being attacked should never be that deescalation has been achieved before confirmation that it has been can be made. When someone is hit from behind with a hard object and an unknown liquid substance, one should not immediately assume it is an innocuous egg but instead assume it is something like a glass vial of acid. Assuming the former is how a person gets himself killed.

Someone who has never so much as been shoved to the ground on the playground at recess is not going to be able to instinctively understand that, though. Elite white privilege, you might call it.

 
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Predicting Kamala Harris years before she was recognized as a legitimate contender was fun. As she has become a top-tier candidate however, my confidence in the success of her candidacy has actually weakened rather than strengthened. It’s mostly on account of my not doing my homework earlier. When I first started making the prediction, I’d admittedly mostly just read her history, not watched her in action. Some readers tried to warn me but I waved them off. She’s exotic and there isn’t an Original Sin she doesn’t lambaste heritage America for. It was obvious she wanted to run. How could she not win if she did?

Through a combination of political flatfootedness and rhetorical overextension. Referring to America as a historical crime scene is the kind of thing an endangered pale male trying to outdo a member of the POC ascendancy should go for. When a black woman says it, though, normies get nervous.

Speaking of black, let’s get to the real reason I’m getting hot under the collar. A recurring theme here for over a decade now is how the path to the Democrat nomination goes through black primary voters. Their vote is close to monolithic, both in the primaries and in the general. Hillary beat Obama among whites and Hispanics in 2008 but he crushed her among blacks and so he got the nomination. A remarkably similar thing happened in 2016, when Sanders narrowly beat Hillary among whites but got destroyed by her among blacks. Well, here are current approval ratings among blacks for the top Democrat candidates:

The daughter of a mixed Jamaican father and a south Asian mother who is now married to a wealthy Jewish man and who grew up in Canada and has spent her adult life in a state with a relatively small and shrinking black population may not be legitimate enough for South Carolinian blacks. Who knew?

Approval ratings among Democrat pols are reliably high across the board among blacks. It’s conceivable that Harris’ resonance as “one of us” has yet to resonate with blacks, but will do so between now and South Carolina. We’re still further out from the 2020 election today than we were when Trump descended the elevator in 2015, so a lot could happen. I must admit I thought she’d be the de facto black candidate by now, though, and she’s obviously not there yet.

Additionally, Beto’s cuttlefish routine is going to fail. There will not be an American Justin Trudeau. That moment has passed. Parenthetically, he’s going to have to pull Trump’s rhetorical shiv out of his figurative rib cage:

“I think he has a lot of hand movement. I’ve never seen so much hand movement,” President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday. “Is he crazy or is that just the way he acts?”

Andrew Yang’s campaign captures the existential angst of those on the left and the right who’ve come to the realization that the neo-liberal world order has no place for them, quite an accomplishment on his part given that he is very much part of that neo-liberal world order. If Trump’s 2016 candidacy was the first step towards a real political realignment, it will be by way of providing populists on the right with real buy-in into the federal government–not in a proxy role like the one the military has provided Conservatism, Inc but as a guarantor of subsistence even after the most thorough kinds of un-personings.

 
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In trying to track down convincing evidence for the claim that female happiness is in a state of secular decline, I stumbled into a chasm of self-reported happiness by marital status. The General Social Survey regularly asks respondents about how happy they are. The three potential responses are “very happy”, “pretty happy”, and “not too happy”.

The following graphs depict what I’ll call a happiness index, calculated by simply taking the “very happy” percentage and subtracting from it the “not too happy” percentage. For contemporary relevance, responses are from 2000 onward. To avoid racial confounding, only non-Hispanic whites are evaluated:

Correlation does not necessarily indicate causation, of course. And Tennyson’s assertion that it is better to have loved and lost than to never have loved at all deserves skepticism.

That said, this is prima facie evidence that the Western world’s increasingly anti-marital zeitgeist is making people miserable.

In anticipation of the objection that older people tend to be happier than younger people are, here are the results by marital status and age cohort:

Oh how our putative moral progress takes away what forever took to find.

GSS variables used: HAPPY, MARITAL(1)(3-4)(5), SEX, AGE(18-34)(35-49)(50-64)(65-89), RACECEN1(1), HISPANIC(1)

 
• Category: Culture/Society 
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To express his skepticism about the existence of any morally valid proof for the formula:

Somali Muslim + criticism of Jewish influence = white gentiles are evil

, Alabama representative Mo Brooks voted against the anti-ism resolution in the House on account of its failure to condemn anti-white and anti-Christian hate, both of which are hate crime categories tracked by the FBI (to be precise, “anti-Christian” is further divided into several denominational categories, but the point remains).

While there is no apparent reason to doubt Brooks’ sincerity on both accounts–whites and Christians have been on the receiving end of a lot of hate over the millennia!–“anti-white” causes more uncomfortable squirming among normies than “anti-Christian” does.

Consequently, it makes rhetorical sense to marry the two. Even though blacks are more likely to identify as Christian in the US than whites are, when the ideological totalitarians think of Christians, it’s hidebound whites clinging to guns and bibles who come to their minds.

The larger the basket of deplorables is, the better chance those deplorables have in withstanding the onslaught against them.

GSS variables used: RACECEN1(1)(2), HISPANIC(1), RELIG

 
• Category: Culture/Society, Ideology • Tags: Christianity, Politics 
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The Derb:

Had you even heard the expression “asylum-seeker” five years ago? (In an American context, I mean. In Europe, where the asylum racket has been general knowledge for much longer, everyone’s long since used to hearing “asylum-seeker.”)

He nailed it. From Trends, first in the US:

And then for the UK:

Guess which American state generates the highest relative search volume. Hint: It’s not representative Omar’s, which comes in tied for thirteenth. It’s much more deplorably white even than that–the whitest in the country, in fact (for a few more years, anyway).

 
• Category: Culture/Society, Ideology, Race/Ethnicity • Tags: Immigration 
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In a recent post on LGBTQ+ identity among those under thirty years old, in going back to look at another figure I realized miscalculated the figure for white women, understating it. I sincerely apologize for the screw up. I’m generally diligent about checking and double-checking but this one fell through the cracks. I’ve updated the post accordingly. I’ve also broken out Jews from non-Jewish whites. Comment there (unless it’s just to give me grief for the mistake–you can do that here or there!).

 
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From Trends, search volume in the US for “hate speech” as a percentage of search volume for “free speech” by year:

Extrapolating from 2014 through to the present, a fourth slogan will roll out around 2030: Free speech is hate speech.

Dragonfly isn’t dead, it has just been hidden underground. Intellectual totalitarianism is scaling and strengthening. The great disease Bill Lind warned about two decades ago has metastasized. It now afflicts virtually every institution in the West. Putatively anonymous discussions on internet forums are increasingly being compromised. Hushed whispers in places devoid of smart devices are the last redoubts.

In addition to the rhetorical question of whether or not the US actually won the Cold War, there is another acute angle to the clampdown. Support for free speech correlates strongly with intelligence. Although he didn’t intend it as alternative narration to the opening vignette of Idiocracy, it could have been:

The people in charge will go to the mat to defend pornography freely available on-line, but scream bloody murder if Facebook lets someone talk about biology on their platform. Scientists are losing their careers, while pornographers are celebrated. It’s close to a 180 degree change from thirty years ago. In 1985, retailers were still keeping smut in the back room, away from the general public. Video rental places had a secret room for porn. Today, porn is so ubiquitous no one notices.

The power of the formal state isn’t the issue. To the contrary, the state–at least in the US–is currently a net defender of free speech, if an ineffective and unmotivated one. It’s not the state that splashes pornography everywhere while banishing those who talk about biology. It’s tech companies like Twitter that do. Simply searching “porn videos” yields an endless stream of hardcore fornicating, while a tweet about IQ, a subject buttressed by a century’s worth of scientific literature, is here today and gone tomorrow.

 
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++Addition++In going back to look at Jewish figures I realized I miscalculated the figure for white women, understating self-reported LGBTQ+ membership substantially. My sincere apologies for the oversight. I’m usually quite diligent in double-checking everything but this one slipped through the cracks. The errant text has strikethrough to document my mistake for posterity, but I’ve updated the graph (including separating Jews out from non-Jewish whites). As is the case in other surveys, Jews are less likely to identify as heterosexual or straight than members of other groups are.

Following on from the previous post, the percentages of those under the age of 30 who identify their own sexual orientations as something other than heterosexual or straight:

 

White men are marginally more deviant than white women are, the only racial group in which women report being straighter than men. This appears to conflict with what Feryl found in the GSS. The survey shows white millennial men reporting substantially fewer same-sex partners than non-white millennial men do. Stated orientation and actual behavior are not the same thing, of course.

Maybe there’s a budding gay incel phenomenon occurring. Or, as was speculated about in the previous comments, some percentage of frustrated incels end up identifying as non-hetero out of spite.

It’s not a novel observation to note the dysfunctional nature of the sexual market Zeds inhabit. Theirs is the first generation to come of age with social media, ubiquitous pornography, and ‘dating’ apps like tinder undercutting normal, healthy face-to-face coed interaction–the kind that allowed our species to survive up to this point.

 
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From an enormous Reuters-Ipsos poll, the percentages of people by age and by political orientation who identify their sexual orientations as something other than heterosexual or straight*:

More than one-in-four liberals under the age of 30 are gay (I wish!), bisexual, or beyond. There is steady but modest generational growth in deviancy from silents through millennials, but the spike with Zs is remarkable. On the current trajectory, deviancy among young liberals in the subsequent generation will be the minority of them who are heterosexual. Assuming a next generation, that is!

* For the purposes of this post, “very liberal” or “moderately liberal” = liberal; “lean liberal” or “lean conservative” = moderate; and “very conservative” or “moderately conservative” = conservative. LGBTQ+ = “gay”, “lesbian”, “bisexual”, or “other orientation”.

 
• Category: Culture/Society • Tags: Generational gap, Homosexuality, Polling 
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The only reason there is a modest correlation between age and support for Donald Trump among men is because older generational cohorts are whiter than younger ones are. Once race is taken into account, the relationship vanishes among whites, is revealed to be weak among Hispanics and Asians, and acutely inverts among blacks and Jews. From an enormous ongoing Reuters-Ipsos that commenced a month into Trump’s presidency, his approval among men by age and race:

The stark generational contrast among blacks and Jews is remarkable. Black and Jewish men under 35 years old are twice as likely to support Trump as black and Jewish men over 65 are. Among Jewish men under 50, it’s a coin toss as to whether they’ll be pro- or anti-Trump. R-I doesn’t query about community type, but given that Jews are significantly more heavily concentrated in urban areas than white gentiles are, it’s conceivable that urban/suburban/rural Jewish men express greater support for Trump than urban/suburban/rural white gentile men do.

And as the subsequent graph reveals, there is a chasm separating the way young Jewish men and young Jewish women feel about the president. A similar gap exists among young white gentile men and women.

The conventional narrative about opposition to the right from younger people holds up better among women, with blacks the only ones to buck the trend (and from such a small base of support anyway):

My conjecture about to the primary force driving what is beginning to look like a paradigmatical shift in the relationship between age and political orientation among men: The increasing ideological and intellectual totalitarianism of the left. To be on the left increasingly means demanding you not say this, you not think that, you not question this, you not test that, you not consider this, you not challenge that. Doubly so if you are a man, doubly so if you are white, and quadruply so if you are a white man.

It is, in short, to repeat over and over and over again “This is NOT okay“. The life of a bitter vinegar-drinking scold is not one that appeals much to young men.

 
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One curious aspect of hate crime, which we are told is on the rise in Trump’s America, is how it is predominantly a blue state phenomenon. The inverse correlation between Trump’s share of the vote and the rate of reported hate crime incidents is .60.

That strikingly robust relationship is buoyed by the District of Columbia, the most hate-filled place in the country by far. DC extended it’s lead in hate between 2016 and 2017. While the total number of reported incidents increased 17% during Trump’s first year in office, the number of reported incidents in the capital increased a staggering 68%!

Even when DC is removed from the calculation, though, an inverse correlation of .28 remains:

State Hate per 100,000 people
1) Mississippi 0.15
2) Nevada 0.17
3) Arkansas 0.25
4) Georgia 0.30
5) Alabama 0.31
6) Iowa 0.35
7) Alaska 0.54
8) Pennsylvania 0.61
9) Illinois 0.67
10) Texas 0.68
11) Louisiana 0.69
12) Florida 0.71
13) Wyoming 0.72
14) Maryland 0.79
15) Wisconsin 0.80
16) Oklahoma 0.94
17) New Hampshire 1.00
18) Rhode Island 1.04
19) New Mexico 1.25
20) Montana 1.43
21) North Carolina 1.62
22) Missouri 1.72
23) South Carolina 1.74
24) Colorado 1.90
25) West Virginia 1.95
26) North Dakota 1.99
27) Tennessee 2.03
28) South Dakota 2.13
29) Virginia 2.28
30) Maine 2.40
31) Indiana 2.40
32) Nebraska 2.41
33) Utah 2.55
34) Minnesota 2.65
35) California 2.77
36) New York 2.80
37) Kansas 2.86
38) Delaware 3.01
39) Connecticut 3.09
40) Idaho 3.12
41) Oregon 3.74
42) Arizona 3.91
43) Ohio 3.92
44) Michigan 4.59
45) Vermont 5.45
46) New Jersey 5.50
47) Massachusetts 6.37
48) Washington 6.90
49) Kentucky 8.51
50) District of Columbia 27.81

The anticipated retort that blue state hate is higher on account of MAGA men lashing out in places where they feel numerically besieged is hard to square with the significant overrepresentation of blacks among hate crime offenders. Hate crime participation rates relative to population representation by race, with anything over 100% indicating disproportionately high hate crime perpetration and anything under 100% indicating disproportionately low hate crime perpetration:

Hispanic or non-Hispanic is broken out separately from race, so the figure for “whites” includes many Hispanics, inflating the apparent non-Hispanic white figure given that Hispanics, when broken out separately, or more hate crime-inclined than non-Hispanics are.

Parenthetically, I dug into the uselessness of hate crime reporting several years ago in greater detail. Little has changed in the intervening decade.

 
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From R-I, percentages who blocked a “family member or close friend on social media for reasons related to” the 2016 presidential election:

It’s conceivable that non-white Trump supporters have taken even more abuse from their social circles than white Trump supporters have. That may go some way in explaining that high figure. Or it could be that in The Current Year white non-leftists tend to be the most intellectually tolerant people of all, while white leftists are the least so.

One thing that clearly does not bode well for the prospect of some sort of future national reunification is how blocking those with differing views from one’s own is so strongly inversely correlated with age. This is not merely a consequence of younger people leaning more Democrat than older ones, either (a trend that is weakening significantly anyway)–the figures are virtually identical among Clinton and Trump voters under the age of 35. Political dissolution is on the horizon.

 
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An R-I poll asking Republicans and independents who they would vote for in a 2020 GOP primary illustrates that one thing Donald Trump has done since June of 2015 is make the Republican electorate his own. The Republican base has subsequently embraced him as their champion by an overwhelming margin:

The GOPe favorites are now would-be insurgents without any troops to lead into battle.

Parenthetically, Ted Cruz’s exclusion from the list of candidates in this poll is pretty sloppy. Yes, technically he could be included in “other”, but only the most politically engaged Cruz supporters are going respond that way.

What comes after Trump will not be cut from the McCain/Romney cloth barring a spectacularly rigged primary process. An aspiring Republican running on open trade, corporate tax cuts, and ‘comprehensive’ immigration reform will get crushed by someone aping Trump’s populist bent. There is no future at the top of the ticket for the Koch Brothers’ man. Those days are over.

This is what I’m getting at when I so frequently refer to Trump as a transitional figure. Will the savvier, more disciplined successor to Trump be the often hoped for transformational figure, or is the god-emperor stuff nothing more than Heritage America’s Prester John?

 
• Category: Culture/Society, Ideology 
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Steve Sailer:

The sidesplitting Jussie Smollett fake noose story is a classic example of the hate-hoax phenomenon that I’ve been explicating since 2004. So, I’m going to take another victory lap to review what I’ve figured out about hate hysteria over the past fifteen years.

It looks as though the country is at last beginning to figure out what Steve’s been explicating for a decade and a half. The Jussie Smollett hate hoax really is the mother of all hoaxes up to this point:

Parenthetically, given the uniqueness of the actor’s first name and the fact that it becoming household is attributable in its entirety to the fast one he tried pull, his name is primed to be turned into a noun or verb that becomes shorthand for identifying hate hoaxes in the future (ie, “I don’t buy it, I think he’s pulling a jussie” or “He’s not telling the truth; we’re being jussied”).

 
• Category: Culture/Society 
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The percentages of respondents in a Reuters-Ipsos poll that ran from late 2016 through early 2017, by selected demographics, who say “all” or “most” illegal aliens should be deported:

The sharpest fault lines emerge along partisan affiliation, with other demographic categories that proxy for it like race and marital status rather predictably distributed.

A pattern consistently revealed in US opinion polling–whether the polls mention politicians and political parties or not (this one did not)–is blacks tending to be the least restrictionist group of all. Even though Hispanics and Asians are themselves considerably more likely to be immigrants than blacks in the US are, it is blacks who express the strongest support for unfettered immigration, legal or illegal.

Another pattern is the one Steve Sailer first pointed out several years ago–the marriage gap is consistently wider than the gender gap is.

 
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Was president Trump’s assertion that Bernie Sanders’ time had passed in 2016 on the money? By riffing off the MLK legacy as conventionally understood, Sanders is revealing himself to be woefully out of sync with the POC ascendancy:

“We have got to look at candidates, you know, not by the color of their skin, not by their sexual orientation or their gender and not by their age. I mean, I think we have got to try to move us toward a nondiscriminatory society, which looks at people based on their abilities, based on what they stand for.”

Sanders is not merely incorrect, he is morally wrong. Some might say his divisive rhetoric borders on hate speech:

Will a sizable number of “Bernie Bros” defect again in 2020? While Trump appears to have turned some formerly toss-up/lean-D states like Iowa reliably red, his poll numbers in the upper Midwestern states where he flipped a lot of counties in 2016 that Obama won in 2008 and 2012 are currently trending against Trump.

But the Democrat candidates these ‘swing’ voters are most favorably inclined towards–Sanders and Joe Biden–are defenseless against the charge of being straight white men in The Current Year. If they talk about the systematic oppression of POCs and women, they cede the moral high ground to the POCs and women they are running against. If they do what Sanders did here, well, they get the treatment that Sanders got here. Heads I win, tails you lose.

The primaries are going to be very interesting.

 
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The following three things strike me as necessary (if not necessarily sufficient):

1) A moratorium on immigration lasting at least a generation
2) The repatriation of non-citizens unauthorized to be in the country
3) The return of native fertility to at least replacement level

If these things do not happen–and it seems unlikely that any, let alone all, of them will–political dissolution is probably inevitable.

 
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Source.

Even Islam tolerates Israel (though the Muslim sample, at just 66, is the smallest one represented here by far). Only in America!

Parenthetically, is the post’s title anti-Semitic? If not, good. Let free expression be. If so, would it be more, less, or equally anti-Semitic to assert that AIPAC is bad at what it does?

 
• Category: Foreign Policy, Ideology • Tags: Israel, Jews, Polling 
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This hate crime counts among its victims some 63 million Americans. The blue checkmark brigade’s reaction did what SE Cupp asserted it would–made it harder for groups on the receiving end of such hate to ‘report’ it without being subjected to mockery and ridicule.

However Freud be assessed in his entirety, the concept of psychological projection is his greatest contribution:

Imagine the reaction if Steve King had written Protect the mind, heart and spirit of you and your people at all costs. This is what White Privilege looks like in The Current Year, I guess.

Less cynically, despite the putative victim aegises afforded by his being black and gay, it looks like Smollett is going to be held to account. He was too clever by half. Had he merely fabricated the whole incident, he’d still be being celebrated right now.