I am by no means a Serbia expert, and have to rely on other, more informed people – e.g., a couple of Serbian nationalist acquaintances – to tell me what is really going on there.
Anyhow, here’s the critical part which they are all agreed upon.
Despite his “reputation” in the West, Vucic is not a Serbian nationalist. He is actually hated amongst many Serbian nationalists, because they believe that he plays to them while planning to sell out on Kosovo. For instance, back in September, he relieved Chief of the General Staff Bratislav Dikovic, who is a veteran of the 1999 war against NATO and represents the hardcore pro-Russian wing in the military. Cleaning out or cowing patriotic officers would necessarily need to happen before any moves to stop resisting the final secession of Kosovo.
At the very least, Vucic is held to have no strong political convictions of his own, who can be expected to take the path of least resistance. That path, given Serbia’s position, is quite obvious. It leads to Brussels.
In this sense, he would appear similar to Milosevic, who was not the rabid, foaming at the mouth Kebab Remover of Western fantasy, but a typical sovok apparatchik forced along into nationalist projects, but whose half-hearted commitment to them ensured their failure – and eventually, his own political demise at the hands of nationalist insurgents. With said Bulldozer Revolution getting promptly hijacked by liberals.
In this sense, the Russian state – which from Serbian Sputnik up to Putin himself have slavishly backed Vucic, one suspects largely on account of his quasi-Russophile rhetoric and because he triggers Western journalists into writing op-eds on how he is an evil Putler puppet and Serbian SWPL-LGBT into demonstrating on the streets – may have set itself up for a rude awakening.
Having just received the Order of Alexander Nevsky from Putin – the first foreign head of state to be so honored – now is perhaps as good a time as any to repay him with a knife in the back. If Serbia is to recognize Kosovo, Russia will be put in an impossible position, hardly able to veto it (not after sinking so much political capital into Vucic). Serbian nationalists, much weaker than they were a couple of decades – the current protests are dominated by liberals, unlike in 2000 – will be even further demoralized. NATO membership to round things off and definitely lock Russia out of the Balkans in another decade.
At the very least this is the Blackpill Scenario (Serbian Edition). Perhaps it might not pan out – not yet, anyway. Apparently, the biggest champion of the Kosovo betrayal is Macron, and he has some minor issues of his own right now.