I am not going to stick my neck out with concrete predictions, except to the extent that I agree with the betting markets that it’s close to 50/50 with the edge going to Biden.
- Trump has incumbent advantage, but Biden is not Hillary, so the two cancel out.
- Like it or not, blame for Corona was successfully refocused on China, at least amongst conservatives. So it’s not going to be a big issue.
- Trump has lost support amongst boomers, gained a bit amongst youth.
- Trump has lost support amongst Whites, gained them amongst Blacks and especially Latinos. This is really hilarious, but quite logical, as I already observed in 2016 US elections are going the way of Latin American ones and they like their caudillos. Castizo futurism FTW.
- Trump has massively lost support amongst college-educated Whites, not that he had much of it in the first place.
None of these necessarily mean that Trump was dealt a losing hand. The Republican base of support is tilting strongly towards the poor and lower-IQ across all races, while the Dems have become the party of the moneyed cosmopolitans. Trumpism plays better with Latinos and even Blacks (relative to previous Republicans). In line with the Latinization of US politics, one can draw a comparison with “Trump of the Tropics” Bolsonaro – so should we now call Trump “Bolsonaro do Norte?” – who got much fewer votes from the educated elites who had traditionally voted conservative in Brazil… but many more from “based” mulattoes, etc. I wrote about this fascinating phenomenon in Brazil here.
However, what’s actually bad for Trump is that the White, boomer support he is losing is concentrated in the vital swing Rust Belt states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota. It also hurts him in New Hampshire and Maine’s 2nd congressional district, which may not be inconsequential in a close election.
Sure, Florida seems to be a cinch. (If it’s not, he’s very likely doomed anyway). Letting the felons vote actually favors Trump, because the low IQ vote for him; although tons of Black felons will vote for Biden, the effect from White felons who favor Trump will be bigger. And the Hispanic shift in Trump’s favor further reinforces him in Florida and Arizona. Otherwise, though, there are no swing states where greater support amongst Latinos (or Blacks) translates into the real possibility of an electoral shift.
Anyhow, I expect the election to be extremely close, with Trump taking Florida and Arizona, but getting challenged much more strongly by Biden in the Rust Belt (recall that even HRC only lost Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan by <1% – taking all of them would have been enough to win, and considering their similar demographics, this means that the 2/3 odds she was getting before the election were quite reasonable, even in retrospect). In terms of political stability, at least in the medium-term, the best result would be either a strong Biden win or a strong Trump win.
But more likely any result will not be known for weeks (close election + coronavirus delaying counting in some states). And we could even see a contingent election along the lines of the above map. Considering the Republican allegations of Democratic fraud, Trump refusing to commit to leaving the White House in the event of an election loss, and counter-insinuations of color revolution from the Dems, it would be very interesting to observe such a result play out.