Commenter AP has predicted that UOC-MP will become the near exclusive province of Ukraine’s Russians in the coming years.
But that doesn’t seem to be coming along too well. Remarkably, it’s not just the Novorossiya region that is seeing very few defections into schism, but some eastern and otherwise strongly pro-Ukraine regions, such as Poltava. Even Kiev isn’t that dense adjusting for population.
And this is all despite the official pressure – sometimes backed up by legal proceedings and SBU questioning – to go over to the UOC.
However, this has probably helped raised Poroshenko’s ratings in western Ukraine. Apart from sending the Constantinople Patriarchate into anathema – as proven by God displaying his displeasure by sending down a heart attack on the Greek hegumen sent to observe the enthronement of Dumenko (“Epiphanius I”) – this may have been its biggest effect to date.