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Turkey

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At the end of the day, the battle was lost in 1453. The best chance there was to reclaim Constantinople for Christendom was in 1917. Admiral Kolchak was to command an amphibious assault on the Bosphorus, spearheaded by regiments named after Tsargrad and Admiral Nakhimov (amongst others). Instead, it was Russia that was taken over... Read More
This, at least, is the result of an instructive poll carried out recently amongst Turks. Here's the three main takeaways: 1. Erdogan's popularity is at a relative low point. 2. 49% of Turks don't want their military in Idlib, vs. 31% who do. 3. 60% don't think refugees will return home after the war, 71%... Read More
Map of Greeks and Armenians in Turkey, before and after the genocides/expulsions of the 1910s-20s, and consequent demographic growth (via /r/Mapporn). As I noted before, I can't think of any other major region where the strategic population balance changed so drastically during the course of the past century. Around 1914, there were 15.0 million Muslims... Read More
Kiev Pechersk Lavra. This is what Nicetas, Archbishop of Nicomedia, wrote in the 12th century about the Great Schism (1054) between Catholicism and Orthodoxy: Difference between then and now? A millennium ago, the Vicar of Christ presided over a flock that was about as demographically predominant within Christendom as the Russian Orthodox Church is within... Read More
My very busy period has mostly come to an end so I should have more material soon. One of the best blogs on the Ukraine a few years ago was The Austere Insomniac (even if at least one commenter here will beg to differ). Good news! It's been resurrected: *** * Bolsonaro is now 90%... Read More
It's the end of summer. Time to have a proper Open Thread at last (with links). I should be moving into a new apartment by late September. It was in a dreadful state when I acquired it, and the remont (refurbishment) has used up most of my savings - and I still need to furnish... Read More
So the results are in, and... Erdogan wins 52.4%, winning the Presidency - a much more powerful position after the 2017 referendum - on the first round. The AKP just failed to get a majority of seats, though it comfortable clears that level in coalition with the nationalist MHP. Was there fraud? No hard statistical... Read More
You will have to excuse the paucity of posting this month. Many things going on. But I hope to get the Romania post out today. I predicted that Russia would win against Saudi Arabia and Egypt (both happened), but would lose against Uruguay. We'll see what happens tomorrow. * Turkey Presidential & legislative elections. My... Read More
The results are in and YES has won a narrow 51.4% victory in the Turkish referendum on making the country into a Presidential republic. This map I found (via Turkish Wikipedia) is the only one to show regional gradations. It shows the percentage of people voting NO. It is electorally very typical for Turkey, which... Read More
I realize everyone is obsessed with North Kora right now, but the Turkish referendum that is set for April 16 may turn out to be even more significant. Erdogan's AKP and the MHP nationalists have proposed a set of amendments to the Turkish constitution that would remove the office of the Prime Minister, annul a... Read More
... far better than we ever could. Anyhow, how fast is the Muslim population growing? It's long been clear that official statistics aren't quite hacking it, and the situation is likely considerably worse. Recent observation from Emil Kirkegaard gleaned from his meanderings through demographic statistics: So, what’s next? There’s a lot to do, but one... Read More
I might just turn my blog into the Internet's number 1 Erdogan fansite. Seriously, I don't got what all the fuss is about. Western politicians love pushing their snouts where they don't belong - observe the flurry of European and American dignitaries sulking the streets in the runup to Euromaidan (immortalized in the Nuland Cookies... Read More
From Turkey's PISA 2015 National Report: In 2015, Richard Lynn and coauthors did one of their standard national IQ analyses on Turkey (based on the results of PISA 2012). Summary: There are seven points of interest in the results. First, the total PISA scores adopted as IQs were significantly positively correlated with per capita income... Read More
Turkey has a proud and rich history of military coups. As analysts tirelessly point out, they are even sanctioned by the Constitution as a means of preserving secularism. However, those days have come to an end. The abortive coup of the past few days was in all likelihood the dying gasp of 20th century Turkey.... Read More
The only two major world political factions that ever seem to be willing to shed their own blood for their beliefs are nationalists and Islamists. In Ukraine it was the hardened Neo-Nazi thugs of Right Sector who hammered in the last few nails in the Yanukovych regime. They were also reliably the best units of... Read More
Three hours after this story began to break it's increasingly clear that we are seeing the biggest Happening of 2016 to date, far overshading the Nice terrorist attacks yesterday. As Lenin purportedly said, "Sometimes decades pass and nothing happens; and then sometimes weeks pass and decades happen." The initial regime response was to blame the... Read More
My latest for the US-Russia Experts Panel and VoR. In this latest Panel, Vlad Sobell asks us supposed Russia “experts” whether Freedom House’s “alarmist stance” towards Russia is justified. Well, what do YOU think? I don’t think you need to be an expert to answer this; it’s an elementary issue of common sense and face... Read More
One of the most common tropes against Russia is that critical (independent, democratic, etc) journalists there are dying like flies, presumably because of the "culture of impunity" created by Putin or even on his express orders. It is rarely mentioned that the statistical chances of a Russian journalist dying by homicide is an order of... Read More
That title sure caught you attention? Good. Now for the 1000-words-in-a-picture evidence. Human capital refers to educational attainment, as measured by the results of the PISA and TIMMS standardized tests*. As you can see, there is a very close correlation between human capital and GDP (PPP) per capita. The exceptions all confirm the rule. For... Read More
The Press Freedom Index issues by Reporters Without Borders is a good starting point for assessing journalistic freedoms in global comparative perspective. However, much like all attempts to measure democracy or Transparency International's assessment of corruption perception, their methodology relies on tallying a number of intangibles that cannot be objectively estimated: Censorship, self-censorship, legal framework,... Read More
This is the Karlin Freedom Index for 2012, a political classification system I formulated more than a year ago in response to systemic bias on the part of traditional "freedom indices" such as Freedom House and The Economist Democracy Index (hint: they give massive bonus points for neoliberalism and pro-Western foreign policy orientations). The explanation:... Read More
As was inevitable, the commentary on Israel's raid / high seas piracy / legal blockade enforcement / call-it-what-you-will has degenerated into a polarized flame-war between the blind and the deaf, which although very entertaining is also pretty useless*. By far the best analytical article on this issue I've found that really cuts through the partisan... Read More
So given that it's the only game in town, let's start provocative? The only group who behaved rationally are the Israeli commandos and the Americans. And perhaps the Turkish government. The Israeli position on the Gaza blockade is understandable (which is not to say optimal). The Palestinians elected Hamas, a militant group to Israel that... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.