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Who should Russia support in this conflict? By treaty, Russia is not obliged to do anything, at least so long as Azerbaijan (or Turkey) do not violate Armenia's internationally recognized borders, of which Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh is not a part. And while neither Azerbaijan nor Turkey can be remotely considered Russia's friends, they both have a substantial... Read More
If Russiagate fantasies were real and they had the vote in US elections - at least as suggested by this FOM poll. This is not to say that Russians like Trump - their short post-elections honeymoon was soon after undermined by Russiagate sanctions and foreign policy erraticism, such as the strikes on Russian mercenaries in... Read More
KMIS poll on Ukrainian attitudes to Lukashenko vs. protesters from: It was carried out on 12-16 September, i.e. after the breakdown of Belorussian-Ukrainian relations following Lukashenko's about turn on extraditing the Russian mercs to Ukraine. Across the Ukraine, 31% support Lukashenko while 45% support the protesters. I would actually probably similar to figures for Belarus... Read More
2020 keeps getting more powerful as the clashes in July have suddenly crescendoed with reports of large-scale Azeri attacks on the Artsakh frontlines and Azeri shelling of the Armenian enclave's capital of Stepanakert. This now seems to be a bigger thing than your typical serious border scuffle, which happens once every few years and kills... Read More
From the start I refrained from speculating too much about what precisely happened to Navalny. Thing is, several weeks on, we are collectively none the wiser. Though Novichok seems to have done him good in the looksmaxxing department: But reality is rarely as important as the narratives around it, and so far as narratives are... Read More
As the protests become more marginal and zmagar-dominated, they are also drawing an ever increasing mass of Russian Bioleninists. Not very important in the grand scheme of things, but it's amusing to observe. *** The Encounter: The liberal hipster Yuri Dud', who was recently in Poland, also ran into some Based Polish Nationalists there: But... Read More
There have been no important developments since the last Belarus Sitrep. The protests continue to periodically simmer, but they are massively down from their peak several weeks ago. The pro-Russian orientation has become progressively clearer: Chairman of the Standing Commission on International Affairs Andrey Savinykh has openly stated that Belarus' prior "multivector" foreign policy no... Read More
Today I have been granted the GREAT OPPORTUNITY and PRIVILEGE of serving Russia and President PUTIN as guinea pig for Gam-COVID-Vac, that is, the SPUTNIK V vaccine. Accounting for Phase I-II participants, I calculated I'm the 503rd person in the world (officially) testing it, out of perhaps hundreds of millions to come. Assuming, that is,... Read More
This has not been a good year for Russian nationalists mortality-wise. The NazBol Eduard Limonov died in March, while the natsdem (liberal nationalist) Konstantin Krylov passed away in May. And now, the OG of Russian Neo-Nazism, "Tesak" (lit. "Hatchet", real name: Maxim Martsinkevich), a skinhead of Polish-Russian ancestry who can be said to have invented... Read More
h/t "Horace Finkelstein" for the meme What I think is a major missed market opportunity: Bring poutine to Russia. Cheap, satiating calories Latitudinal compatibility (Canada) - as with technologies and many other things, it's often been observed that culinary foodways tend to spread most successfully across latitudes Fast food Can make Putin-related puns There are... Read More
Lukashenko and Putin are meeting today in Sochi to hammer whatever it is they are going to hammer out. I assume that the Kremlin denial that the talks will focus on "mergers" is an obfuscation. There were two valid approaches to Lukashenko's recent problems in Belarus: Non-interference based on sanctity of the (Soviet) state borders,... Read More
At any rate, the paper in question was published in The Lancet, which isn't exactly the most obscure medical journal. Logunov, Denis Y., Inna V. Dolzhikova, Olga V. Zubkova, Amir I. Tukhvatullin, Dmitry V. Shcheblyakov, Alina S. Dzharullaeva, Daria M. Grousova, et al. 2020. “Safety and Immunogenicity of an rAd26 and rAd5 Vector-Based Heterologous Prime-Boost... Read More
People want me to comment on Navalny. I have avoided doing so because I just don't know. There are plenty of other people who don't know either but are writing about it anyway so why would I waste my time and your time on this. I don't know what the poison was. It probably was... Read More
Toews, Gerhard, and Pierre-Louis Vézina. 2018. “Enemies of the People.” Working Paper. (h/t Emil) The presence of Gulag prisoners - especially concentrations of "enemies of the people", i.e. "politicals" who overwhelmingly hailed from the Tsarist-era educated elites in the professions, aristocracy, and kulaks - had positive long-run effects on development in those regions. This is... Read More
This is a quick addendum to this post about Poland's cultural/electoral geography. Everybody who has spent time in our corner of the Internet is familiar with the basics, in which the territories formerly controlled by Russia and Austria-Hungary vote conservative while the Prussian-controlled areas vote liberal. (With adjustment for liberal tilt in big cities). However,... Read More
From Gerard Toal and John O’Loughlin in The Washington Post, who have in general done some very useful and objective (at least, quantitative) work on geopolitical attitudes in Russia's Near Abroad over the years. Here is the key observation: While allowances may be made for youngsters drifting towards more conservative positions with age, the divide... Read More
There's some people who seem to believe that displaying or posting the white-red-white flag commonly used in Belorussian opposition protests is supposed to "trigger" Russians and/or Russian nationalists, or something. But really, why should even - or especially - Russian nationalists prefer one larp flag - that of the BSSR from 1951-1991... ... over another... Read More
The centrality of "pipeline diplomacy"/"energy blackmail" to Russian FP is a common trope amongst journalists and "geopolitics analysts", alongside more recent buzzwords ("hybrid war", "Gerasimov doctrine", dezinformatsiya...). But it's always useful to pin down some hard facts/stats. (1) Share of natural gas as percentage of Russian exports: 6%. Historically hovers between 5%-10%. This isn't altogether... Read More
Now to preface this, I have argued extensively that many factors make it unlikely that Belarus institutes a hard anti-Russian zmagarist regime in the event of a successful color revolution against Lukashenko. However, there are also some arguments to that effect which are if not outright false then significantly flawed. Perhaps the biggest one is... Read More
Stunning age differential on Russian view of events in Belarus, according to VCIOM poll. 33% of 60+ y/o's believe Lukashenko's 80% result was fully authentic, vs. just 3% of 18-24% y/o's. General background note: The past couple of years have seen an awning divide in chronological terms. While Putin was actually marginally more popular amongst... Read More
Any Russian policy towards Belarus should take into account the following considerations: Lukashenko is not an ally or a friend. This does not describe a person who has accepted $100 billion worth of Russian oil/gas subsidies over the past decade, to end up doing military exercises with the Brits while denying Russian an airbase it... Read More
It's become glaringly evident that Western societies (unfortunately, Russia "qualifies") do not have the state capacity or social discipline to contain Corona. Not high IQ enough to solve it through technological silver bullets like ubiquitous testing. Not imaginative enough to do large-scale variolation, as Robin Hanson proposed. Nor do they have the fortitude to "power... Read More
"Listva" Bookshop Opens Up in Russian Capital
Black Hundreds CEO Dmitry Bastrakov giving the opening speech. On August 8, 2020 Moscow saw the opening of the bookshop Listva in Moscow. This is their first expansion outside the original Listva bookshop in Saint-Petersburg, where - incidentally - I had been invited to give a lecture on dysgenics last November. There will now be... Read More
I have said most of what I wanted to say about Belarus in two recent threads, which have since been enriched by many informative comments: The Belarus Horseshoe Why Belarus Isn't Ukraine Hopefully this constitutes a useful background what looks to a pretty dramatic turn in Belorussian politics, as voters head to the polls on... Read More
Night in Novogrudok, Belarus (2017) by Pavel Gamburg. Even though we tend to take it as a given, it isn't exactly obvious why Belarus should be so much more "Russophile" than the Ukraine. The lands of White Russia were "regathered" into the Russian Empire well more than a century after Left-Bank Ukraine (the lands east... Read More
Protest meeting in Minsk on July 30. The images of massive protests coming in from Belarus on the eve of their Presidential elections on August 9, in which Alexander Lukashenko is widely expected to rubber stamp himself another term, have provoked talk of a new color revolution/Maidan. The original social contract offered by Lukashenko since... Read More
Belarus was being used as a transport hub by Wagner - in this case, to Sudan - because Russian airports are currently closed to most international foreign travel, with the Belarus leadership and KGB was appraised of it. The arrest of the 32 Wagner mercenaries and publication of their identities is a very hostile move... Read More
The wages of relying on hostile foreigners for your IT infrastructure: Tsargrad TV has been permanently kicked off YouTube. This isn't just some random blogger or streamer - it's an accredited Russian media organization with its own TV channel, a central office in central Moscow, and as of yesterday, around a million subscribers on YouTube.... Read More
A few weeks ago, I appeared on Post-Politika, a small Russian liberal debate/discussion YouTube channel with a thousand subscribers. A friend produced a highlight of my takes; the full video can be found here - Unfortunately it was all in Russian, with no translation. But the gist of it was that they invited three people... Read More
What happened: Russia arrested the popular LDPR governor of Khabarovsk oblast, Sergey Furgal. He won against United Russia's Salva Schport in 2018 and has been governor since, making it one of the few (nationalist) opposition-ruled regions in Russia. He is alleged to have ordered hits on local businessmen in 2004, when Russia was still rife... Read More
Didn't blog about it at the time, but just a bit more than a week ago, Putin formally signed Russia's new immigration law easing citizenship requirements for Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, and Kazakhstan nationals (something that I long advocated). It's not an open borders project (the kneejerk hysterics of a few anti-Putin Russian nationalists aside). It's... Read More
No, the other kind of Caucasian. The ones who live between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. А couple of weeks ago, Cherkess activists were successful in forcing the removal of a newly unveiled monument to the Russian soldiers who conquered the region in the 19th century in Adler, a city close to Sochi.... Read More
The US has a problem. It has too many statues of evil white men, such as the Confederate generals, the Founding Fathers, Columbus, and even the first governor of Russian Alaska, Alexander Baranov. You may not personally consider it a problem, but plenty of your compatriots do, and they're usually more influential than you. Sucks... Read More
Here's a map of how Russian citizens abroad voted. (Blue = yes; red = no; via @14ws) As with most expats, Russians abroad skew younger and more liberal, hence the orange/red throughout the West as well as China (e.g. expat heavy/more lib Shanghai expats vote NO, while more diplomat-dominated & vatnik Beijing and Harbin voted... Read More
As I keep saying, it's really cool how Russians took over America just by shitposting online and set it off on a widening gyre of insanity. This "Lincoln Project" seems to be the latest weird neocon/neolib NeverTrump symbiosis, with WaPo's George Conway and cuckservative figurehead Rick Wilson playing prominent roles in it. It seems a... Read More
So the Russians have become the "state-forming people" of the Russian Federation following the completely unsurprising victory of YES. Putin also gets the option of running for two more 6 year terms come 2024. It also happens to be the case that this is very likely the most falsified election/referendum in modern Russian history, though... Read More
New monument to the Soviet soldiers who perished in the Battles of Rzhev (1942-43) during the Great Patriotic War. Putin and Lukashenko attended the opening ceremony in Rzhev yesterday. The lower half of the statue dissipates into a flock of cranes, referencing a famous song that is based on a poem by Dagestani writer Rasul... Read More
Recent Levada poll asking 14-29 year old Russians and non-Russians how often they feel discriminated against. Non-Russians: 77% say never discriminated against. Also 78% of women say there were never discriminated against on account of their sex. This succinctly answers the question of whether there is racism and sexism in Russia. There isn't, so far... Read More
Yandex.Taxi is Russia's Uber. According to its terms of service, a driver can refuse a passenger a ride for any reason; he or she is deducted a fine and that's the end of the matter. But, like many laws and regulations, this apparently no longer applies to Black passengers. Drivers are obligated to give them... Read More
I am a very big supporter of PUTLER's powerful amendments to the Russian Constitution, and have vigorously shilled for them to my Russian followers. That said, in demographic terms, I am an exception. As a young(ish), university educated, self employed (sort of) person, I am in a decided minority amongst my "peer" group, if not... Read More
As of today, voting has started on the Putin amendments to the 1993 Russian Constitution, which was imposed on us under tank barrels and sponsored by the US State Department. As a result of the coronavirus, the voting will run from June 25 to July 1, with people being given the chance to vote from... Read More
Soon after my shadowbanning on Twitter, I made some comments on this issue to Artyom Alexandrov, a journalist for a Russian news website: As I also told the journalist, Russia doesn't have any principled position on Internet freedom of speech - Roskomnadzor already blocks bookmakers (including predictions markets like PredictIt), some political websites (mostly nationalist),... Read More
Here it is: Vladimir Putin: The Real Lessons of the 75th Anniversary of World War II It is a translation from the Russian on Rossiyskaya Gazeta. Summary from Bryan MacDonald at RT. It's TL;DR for me. But quick perusal, seems like a standard modern Russian attempt to reconcile the Soviet version of history, including battling... Read More
The Cathedral of the Armed Forces at Patriot Park was consecrated yesterday. Though I'd say its interior aesthetics look more like something out of Morrowind, not Warhammer 40K.
Here's a map of Fentanyl Floyd protests in Eurasia with more than 100 members (h/t Jack Posobiec): As I pointed out, in epidemiological terms, we may consider English language knowledge and pro-Western geopolitical orientation to be the main "vectors" through which American cults such as #BLM spreads. Few surprises. Perhaps more in Italy than I... Read More
May 26, 2020 saw the death of Jon Hellevig, one of the most interesting and colorful figures at the intersection of the Moscow expat and "Russia watching" worlds. (Before you ask, as it's topical in the news - no, not COVID-19). The Swedish-Finnish descendant of three Tsarist generals - his great-great-grandfather Gripenberg was a governor... Read More
What you have in #BlackLivesMatter is an emerging religion, complete with its own pantheon of saints and martyrs and the latest iteration of what some have called negrolatry, or the Cult of the Magical Negro.. The latest "saint" in this religion was a highly flawed human being, to put it charitably. Career criminal, drug dealer,... Read More
I didn't comment the story at the time because it seemed so absurd on the face of it, but who knows? Anyhow: Fact of the matter is, Russian intelligence services are not cool enough (and perhaps not competent enough, either) to take out hits on foreign Russophobes. Who are a dime a dozen, anyway.
The other day, Russian libertarians launched a #RussianLivesMatter action today in response to a police shooting. (The history behind this remains murky). But there were misunderstandings with Ameriburgers for "appropriating" the BLM hashtag, which were supported by Russian SJWs. So, Russian libertarians vs. US #BLM + Russian SJWdom. But also involved in the conflict were... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.