For various reasons I am upping my probability of intense fighting in the Donbass this year (probably this summer) to over 50%. The Ukrainian buildup on the border continues. Wheeling in all those guns and equipment and letting them stand idle is expensive. The Americans have sent a cargo ship which is unloading more equipment... Read More
Currently jostling in the top rankings: Jeff Bezos (Amazon) and Elon Musk (Tesla), both at around $200B. Amazon is a mature company that dominates the US e-commerce market and has substantial fingerprints abroad (about a third of revenue). Also not to be underrated is AWS, which accounts for a third of the global cloud computing... Read More
Plus Ă§a change... Just like three years ago on March 26, 2017, the protest "Freedom to Navalny!" tomorrow is to start on Pushkin Square (see above) and march down the central Tverskaya Boulevard down to Manezh Square, which is right next to the Kremlin. I attended that prior protest (as an informal observer, not a... Read More
In this "summary" post on Corona 2020, I will cover some of the following. Recap what we know about Corona, what we have learned in the past year, and what policies should have been undertaken; The big picture of global excess mortality that is emerging for 2020; Discuss the vaccines, "vaccine geopolitics", and Corona's impact... Read More
Prior to the 2020 US elections, I ran a predictions tournament. Given that the Electoral College has now formally voted, putting the matter to rest - at least so far as non-ideologues are concerned - it is now time to run the results. *** Best performance in terms of deviation of EC votes from Biden's... Read More
Where will Chinese GDP end up: At ~US level, or 2-3x the US level? Very important question - after all, it will determine whether the world will remain unipolar (if China ~= US, the latter will remain dominant thanks to its alliance system and soft power) or "bifurcated" between a US-Western sphere and a Sino-centric... Read More
How much bigger will the Chinese economy be relative to the US in the year of 2050? We'll both presumably be near retirement, but OK, it's on. What are we betting on? Bottle of Laphroaig 30-year-old? The amount of ethereum needed to buy the computing costs of simulating a single human em? Suggestions welcome. If... Read More
Many people have remarked that Trump has been an incredibly polarizing President. What's less remarked upon is that the effect doesn't isn't just work across the population, but across time within the hearts of his supporters. Come to think of it, wouldn't Qanon be the very immanentization of a zrada-peremoga cycle, where each "victory" (peremoga)... Read More
Make your predictions here. I want to do this in a standard way, so for your contribution to be counted: Navigate over to Color in the map (only red/blue, no toss ups or gradients) Click "share map" Click on the image URL and paste the link to the .png file Paste the png file into... Read More
So as of today there is an 88% chance on the Metaculus predictions market that Lukashenko remains in power to January 31, 2021, which is up from less than 50% at the lowest points this August. By all indications, Tikhanovskaya's call from her Lithuanian exile for a general strike has resulted in a damp squib.... Read More
Am I a so-called "COVID merchant" peddling fear and BS, as several conspiracy-minded people from both the Left and the Right have alleged? Or have most of my predictions, such as they were, actually (and unfortunately) panned out? As such, I think it would be useful to have a "tallying up" reference sheet that I... Read More
On April 15, BTC was ~$5k. Now it's around $13k. You can make good money by reading me. My long-term prediction is that Bitcoin will remain within the $10-20k range for the next couple of years, but will converge to an ultimate price of $100k within five years.
My predictions for 2018. As usual, I am calibrating my predictions by comparing the percentage of predictions I got right at each probability level versus their probability (e.g., for predictions at the 70% confidence level, perfect calibration would represent getting 7/10 of them correct). Predictions with a probability rating of less than 50% are converted... Read More
Now that the midterms have panned out as the predictions market expected, here's what we can now expect: *** Good Things: 1. It was mostly GOPe cucks getting slaughtered, not Trumpist nationalists (e.g. Steve King stayed, though on a razor thin margin). At least this means that nationalism has real staying power. 2. Cabinet picks... Read More
I am not aware of any active Russian political predictions markets, apart from "Will Vladimir Putin be president of Russia at the end of 2018?" at PredictIt (currently at 93% FWIW). I suppose there are three main reasons for this: 1. Interesting American fads only reach Russia with a lag time of several times, if... Read More
Previous predictions/calibrations: 2017: Predictions - Calibration 2016: Predictions - Calibration Please note that my "Blackpill Timeline" is a what-if scenario, not a prediction. While percentages for existing predictions will remain fixed, I reserve the right to add more predictions during the next couple of days. Oil prices (WTI Crude) are higher than $70: 50% BTC... Read More
In the spirit of #SkinInTheGame, Talebâ€™s idea that pundits should at least stake their reputations on the strength of their knowledge, last year I made some predictions about 2017. See also predictions and results for 2016. As usual, I am calibrating my predictions by comparing the percentage of predictions I got right at each probability... Read More
Might as well get this out of the way now so as not to sully the New Year cheer. Here's a pessimistic (for some) but plausible (I think) way things will develop in the next couple of years. 1. Trump cedes key positions to globalists and neocons. This has already happened; for all intents and... Read More
Last year, I resumed my New Year's tradition of posting annual predictions. I recently analyzed the success rate of those predictions for 2016, the year when meme magic became real. Here are my predictions for 2017: No major conflict (>50 deaths) in East Asia/SE Asia that involves China and/or the US: 95%. US will not... Read More
In the spirit of #SkinInTheGame, Taleb's idea that pundits should at least stake their reputations on the strength of their knowledge, last year I made some predictions about what has come to be known as The Current Year. Like Scott Alexander, I am calibrating my predictions by comparing the percentage of predictions I got right... Read More
Final EC Prediction - Will be very happy to be wrong. I do think there is a Shy Trumpist factor, which will really make itself felt in rustbelt Michigan, but I fear that it might be canceled out by higher Hispanic turnout, especially in Florida and Nevada. The person who likes to bomb a couple... Read More
I like predictions. Part of that is related to my passion for quantifying everything, but another is philosophical, and borne of my antipathy towards charlatanism (I am extremely sympathetic to N.N. Taleb on this issue). In 2005, U.C. Berkeley psychologist Philip Tetlock published a study on expert fallibility spanning 18 years, 284 experts and 82,361... Read More
I have always loved falsifiable predictions. Let's look at some that Ukrainian policians have made for Ukraine. President Leonid Kravchuk, 1991: In 10 years, we will become the richest country in Europe. We will be a second France! President Viktor Yushchenko, 2004: In 10 years, we will live like Poland! Leader of the Opposition and... Read More
I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. Iâ€™m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.
One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if itâ€™s really necessary, I suppose â€śliberal-conservative neoreactionaryâ€ť would be close enough.
Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.