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Mortality

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As data has crept in over the past few months, it has become incontrovertibly clear what we already kind of knew since the Princess Diamond days - that IFR is ~1%. Consequently, unless Corona mortality "hotspots" were a figment of our collective imaginations, the percentage of people who have been infected with the novel coronavirus... Read More
According to an analysis by Luca Dellanna in Italy, a huge number of Italian deaths have been going unregistered. Comparing death rates in Corona-afflicted towns in North Italy this March with the statistics from March during previous years, he estimates that the differential could be as high as a factor of 5. If this can... Read More
The novel coronavirus is a long disease. That's one of the things that makes it so problematic. Apart from having being at least 10x as lethal as the standard flu, and people having no herd immunity against it (so potentially up to 5x as many infectees as during a typical flu season), the average hospital... Read More
Permanent 2.5 Year Drop in US Life Expectancy - It's Just Like the Flu, Brah!
There is a three in a million chance that a Boeing 737 MAX won't arrive at its destination in one piece. At the end of the day, this isn't that big of a deal - as late as the 1980s, this was the average for the commercial airline industry, and risks were twice as high... Read More
I wrote about how this winter was the warmest on record in Moscow, Saint-Petersburg, and many other places in Russia. This is having salubrious effects on public health: Alcohol Deaths Plummet as ‘Warmest Winter’ Hits Russia My regular readers will know that alcohol consumption has long been a very strong contributing factor to many other... Read More
Time for this year's update, now that 2019 preliminary stats are out. I am not going to write much for this one, since there's nothing new or interesting. For the most part, updating the graphs should suffice. For extended commentary, you'd be better off reading the last one. None of the main trends have changed:... Read More
Graph of air accidents in Russia 1923-2019 (via the blogger genby). Thin red line - deaths per year; Thick red line - deaths averaged over 5 years. Thin blue line - accidents per year; Thick blue line - accidents averaged over 5 yeas. Mishaps regardless, flying continues to become much safer in Russia, just like... Read More
I have sometimes made the point that All-Russian improvements in mortality/life expectancy lag the City of Moscow (or the Baltics) by around a decade. There are some good, relevant graphics that reinforce it from a recent paper: Щур, Алексей Евгеньевич. 2019. “Города-миллионники на карте смертности России.” Демографическое обозрение 5 (4): 66–91. GRAPH: Life expectancy [male/female]... Read More
The Boeing 737 Max's current failure rate of ~1% of all airframes in the mere three years it has been flying commercially is, obviously, astoundingly bad. But it's worth noting that this comes on the back of astounding improvements in air safety over the past century. According to Steven Pinker's data in Enlightenment Now, it... Read More
Last year’s summary: Russian Demographics in 2018 [2016; 2014]. Preliminary data for 2018 is in. Births, deaths, and natural increase in Russia, 1946-2018. There were about 1,599,316 (10.9/1,000) births in 2018, a decline of 5.4% relative to the 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017. There were about 1,817,710 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2018, a decline of 0.4%... Read More
Belated comment on the Kemerovo fire that killed 64 people, including 41 children. 1. Tragedies like this are inevitable and will always happen, the best that could be done is working to minimize and mitigate them (personally I favor legislating exorbitant compensation for victims, since money > ethics so far as almost all businesses are... Read More
Since the release of the paper by Anne Case and Angus Deaton showing that mortality rates amongst middle-aged White American males increased from 1999-2013, there has been a lot of anguished hand-wringing about the sorts of further regression or even collapses that it might portend. Comparisons have been made to the Soviet Union, which also... Read More
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The newly released paper by Anne Case and Angus Deaton showing that mortality rates amongst middle-aged White American males (MAWAM) increased from 1999-2013 has been generating a lot of discussion of late. This mortality increase was concentrated amongst MAWAMs with a high school degree or less ("Fishtown," to borrow from Charles Murray's archetype of a... Read More
This is the first of my promised Last Three Posts on DR. It's been a bit more than a year since my last update on Russia's demographic turnaround, and believe it or not, the cause of this was more than just laziness and lack of time on my part. A different question started bugging me:... Read More
Here it is, for those who read Russian. The May data also has emigration data, which is not included in the prelimary estimates - that is here. The main points to take away: Births fell 0.3% and deaths fell 0.5%; as a result, the overall natural decrease has fallen from -57,000 in 2012 to -53,000... Read More
But first, a note about those two articles published here this morning: As I hope many (if not all) of you guessed, it was a scheduling accident. In particular, as regards the piece "Russia’s Economy Is Now Europe’s Largest," this is what I expected to see once the World Bank released its PPP-adjusted GNI figures... Read More
One of the standard memes about Russia's demographic trajectory was the "Russian Cross." While at the literal level it described the shape of the country's birth rate and death rate trajectories, a major reason why it entered the discourse was surely because it also evoked the foreboding of the grave. But this period now appears... Read More
In my previous demography post, I argued that for all intents and purposes, Russia's "demographic crisis" can be reasonably argued to have ended. Population growth is now consistently positive since 2009, and as of last year, the country's natural decrease was a mere 131,000. This is a massive improvement over the 500,000-1,000,000 annual natural decrease... Read More
Sometimes a single picture is worth a thousand words. This is one. Though Russia remains a highly dangerous country by developed country standards, it has improved immeasurably in the past decade. Fewer Russians today die from alcohol poisonings, homicides, suicides, and even - despite a near doubling of car ownership rates - transport accidents that... Read More
Sergey Zhuravlev is a Russian economist who runs a wonky but eminently readable and very useful, interesting blog and writes for Expert (author profile), which I may add is an excellent publication. You have met him previously on my blog as the inventor of a clever - if, in my opinion, flawed - argument that... Read More
In summary, the excess deaths from the once-in-10,000-years heatwave canceled out most of the increase in births, causing the rate of natural decrease to fall by only 7,400 relative to 2009. Adding in the 82,500 drop in net immigration for Jan-Nov 2009, and we can estimate that Russia's population will fall by about 50,000 this... Read More
This post is a meta-commentary on media coverage of Russia's drought and wildfires. Now make no mistake, I admire the yeoman work of some journalists in covering Russia burning: no doubt a few will even make their way into the classical cannon such as The Saga of the Burned Foot (Miriam Elder) or The Tale... Read More
During the past two years, Russian "dissident" liberals Boris Nemtsov and Vladimir Milov have produced a frankly maniacal quantity of so-called "Independent Expert Reports" (there are now seven of them) that purport to debunk the "persistent myths imposed by official [Kremlin] propaganda". The authors say that their latest exegesis, melodramatically entitled "Putin. The Results. 10... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.