So it emerges that I was justified in posting this graph so often. At the end of the day, the blunt and banal facts of the matter were as follows: In 1992-94, Azerbaijan was a disorganized, demoralized, and dysfunctional state with a <50% advantage in comprehensive military power (CMP) over Armenia. In 2020, Azerbaijan was... Read More
The Karabakh War 2020 (archive) has drawn to an end with a complete Armenian military collapse only averted by a last-minute Russian intervention. Considering the battlefield situation, what is essentially still a return to the Madrid Principles (if on conditions much less favorable to the Armenians than would have been the case otherwise) was by... Read More
Other things have occupied our attention, but Karabakh War II - currently by far the world's most intense conflict - continues unabated. Bad news for the Armenians. The Azeris have advanced to the edges of Sushi and the Corridor that connects Armenia to Stepanakert, the capital of its Artsakh enclave. Its capture will mean that... Read More
FOM poll: 12% with Armenia, 2% with Azerbaijan, 71% with neither/equally. Armenophilia tends to increase with: Higher education Wealth Muscovites But the effects aren't that big. Probably the single most interesting result is that Azerbaijan doesn't enjoy elevated sympathy in neither the North Caucasus (10% pro-Armenia, 0% pro-Azeri) nor in the Volga region (11% pro-Armenian,... Read More
The Azeris appear to have seized large chunks of southern Karabakh, including (Armenian-populated) Artsakh proper. Hopes they'd be slowed down by the mountainous terrain have proven forlorn, the advance has to the contrary accelerated ever since the Armenian lines in the south were broken. It's too soon to call it an Armenian collapse. The retreat... Read More
I'm not a huge YouTube person, but this genre of "day by day"'s for various historical events has become a popular genre and one of my favorites. Certainly a useful visual guide to reading about it. And in this case useful as a comparator to what's happening today. First observation - Armenia started off in... Read More
It's been 16 days since the start of Karabakh War II. 524 Armenian dead As mentioned, the Azeris are keeping their losses under wraps, but 619 have been ID'ed from social media. Since social media analysis isn't going to catch all the Azeri losses, we can conclude that the Azeri losses are twice as high... Read More
Just like the Balkan Wars before World War I, there are interesting lessons to be drawn from the conflict, and as such I find it rather fascinating - if not surprising, given the quality of our chattering class - that it has receiving such scant journalistic and analytical attention. This is not just an insurgency... Read More
Who should Russia support in this conflict? By treaty, Russia is not obliged to do anything, at least so long as Azerbaijan (or Turkey) do not violate Armenia's internationally recognized borders, of which Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh is not a part. And while neither Azerbaijan nor Turkey can be remotely considered Russia's friends, they both have a substantial... Read More
2020 keeps getting more powerful as the clashes in July have suddenly crescendoed with reports of large-scale Azeri attacks on the Artsakh frontlines and Azeri shelling of the Armenian enclave's capital of Stepanakert. This now seems to be a bigger thing than your typical serious border scuffle, which happens once every few years and kills... Read More
I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.
One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.
Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.