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Fertility

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Shows zero signs of letting up, according to Twitter demographer Cicerone: "Birth data for the first months of 2020: Slight recovery or flatline in Western Europe, Easternmost Europe continues its sharp decline, Hungary stronk, South Korea ever more doomed." My observations: Uzbekistan now has as many births as France & 50% of Russia's. South Korea... Read More
So even after Corona is done genociding the boomers, we might still have a lingering problem. Here's one English language paper about this: Fan, Caibin, Kai Li, Yanhong Ding, Wei Lu Lu, and Jianqing Wang. 2020. “ACE2 Expression in Kidney and Testis May Cause Kidney and Testis Damage After 2019-nCoV Infection.” Urology. medRxiv. In December... Read More
Time for this year's update, now that 2019 preliminary stats are out. I am not going to write much for this one, since there's nothing new or interesting. For the most part, updating the graphs should suffice. For extended commentary, you'd be better off reading the last one. None of the main trends have changed:... Read More
Subregional map of mean ideal number of children for women (of reproductive age: 15-49) in Sub-Saharan Africa. Source: DHS Program (map it yourself) The UN projects that while Europe stagnates, Sub-Saharan Africa's population will explode from ~one billion today to almost four billion souls by the end of the century. Steve Sailer famously calls this... Read More
World map of mean ideal number of children for women (of reproductive age: 15-49). Source: DHS Program (map it yourself) See also my region specific posts on fertility preferences in: Europe Russia Africa This map fills in the spots elsewhere. South America: Constricting the sample to surveys performed in the 2010s, it seems the region... Read More
Gebremedhin, Samson. 2015. “Multiple Births in Sub-Saharan Africa: Epidemiology, Postnatal Survival, and Growth Pattern.” Twin Research and Human Genetics: The Official Journal of the International Society for Twin Studies 18 (1): 100–107. The rate of multiple births in Sub-Saharan Africa is 1.7x that of European levels (h/t Emil Kirkegaard): The multiple birth rate in SSA... Read More
As I have written in prior posts, Russian demographics continues to improve as it has throughout the Putin era (Russian Demographics in 2019). Life expectancy is going up very rapidly, constituting a new record of 73.6 years as of the first eight months of this year. Deaths from external causes continue to plummet, including homicide... Read More
I am not going to cover things that well-informed normies already know: How Israel is a weird outlier in fertility by First World standards, and the collapse of fertility in the Islamic world; how life expectancy has been soaring nearly everywhere; the "Great White Death" in the US and how all races in the US... Read More
As commenter Reykur recently pointed out - citing the work of the blogger denalt, there is a rather curious phenomenon occurring in a few ethnic Russian regions, where rural fertility has exploded in the past decade. There are precisely four of these regions - Arkhangelsk, Komi, Kirov, and Karelia - and they are all located... Read More
Sweden (Yes!) comes in for a hard time with the Alt Right and the /pol/ crowd on the Internet where it has basically become a meme. However, there's something Sweden - and the Nordics - are doing right. According to Twitter demographer Cicerone's calculations, the Nordics are the only major world region where fertility rates... Read More
Spolaore, Enrico, and Romain Wacziarg. 2019. “Fertility and Modernity.” Working Paper Series. National Bureau of Economic Research. As hbd*chick points out, this suggests that the fertility transition in Europe was substantially independent of the Industrial Revolution, and was a process of cultural diffusion that emanated from France (where it began before 1830).
In one of my posts on the Age of Malthusian Industrialism, I pointed out that groups such as the Amish and the Mormons will be some of the first to become saturated with genotypic breeders: Now, here is a map of how this may look like, courtesy of /pol/*: Projecting forwards another century after 2100,... Read More
Recent paper (h/t @whyvert). Kim, Yuri, and James J. Lee. 2018. “The Genetics of Human Fertility.” Current Opinion in Psychology 27 (August): 41–45. There's basically two classes of people having more kids: Interesting to see who will win out by the time of the Age of Malthusian Industrialism. (Certainly the former would be more successful... Read More
I keep citing Twitter demographer @Cicerone1973. I don't know if he is a professional analyst, but his own projections of Russian TFR and LE usually match mine to the decimal point, so I am sure that he knows what he's doing. And what I try to do for Russia he does for most of the... Read More
Last year’s summary: Russian Demographics in 2018 [2016; 2014]. Preliminary data for 2018 is in. Births, deaths, and natural increase in Russia, 1946-2018. There were about 1,599,316 (10.9/1,000) births in 2018, a decline of 5.4% relative to the 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017. There were about 1,817,710 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2018, a decline of 0.4%... Read More
Female earnings decline after the birth of their first child. But according to a new paper released a few days ago: Kleven et al. (2018): Child Penalties Across Countries ... it happens to markedly different extents across different countries and cultural blocs. Robert Dur summarizes: The earnings hit is surprisingly well correlated to public opinion... Read More
In my third post on the Age of Malthusian Industrialism, I suggested: Happily, it looks like some people have already started doing that. Barban, Nicola et al. (2017) - Genome-wide analysis identifies 12 loci influencing human reproductive behavior Here's a very interesting graph from the paper:
Cicerone comments: All valid, excellent points. The UK was still a bit in front of Germany, though I agree that it's really France that stands out. Fertility rates in UK, Germany, France 1800-2015. There's a huge variety of other factors to consider, for instance: 1. Starting genotypic fertility preferences (e.g. during the medieval age and... Read More
This is the second in a series of posts about the demographics of the coming Age of Malthusian Industrialism. In the decades and centuries to come, technological progress will slow to a crawl, as dysgenic reproduction patterns deplete the world's remaining smart fractions (assuming that there are no abrupt discontinuities in humanity's capacity for collective... Read More
This is a Russia-specific offshoot to my previous post Where Do Babies Come from? For reference purposes, here is how Russia's actual TFR has developed since the end of WW2. Since I last posted substantially on the topic of Russia fertility preferences in 2009-2010, a lot more data has come in. Here is a survey... Read More
This is the first in a series of posts about the demographics of the coming Age of Malthusian Industrialism. In the decades and centuries to come, technological progress will slow to a crawl, as dysgenic reproduction patterns deplete the world's remaining smart fractions (assuming that there are no abrupt discontinuities in humanity's capacity for collective... Read More
Brockhaus and Efron Encyclopedic Dictionary (1890-1907) on illegitimate births: Illegitimate births / 100 births in Russia in 1892: St. Petersburg 15.92 Smolenskaya 1.93 Moscow 13.65 Kazan 1.90 Lifland 6.36 Mogilev 1.89 Estland 4.46 Vladimirskaya 1.86 Arkhangelsk 4.33 Kharkiv 1.84 Kovno 4.12 Tverskaya 1.82 Perm 4.07 Olonets 1.79 Yaroslavskaya 4.03 Kaluzhskaya 1.75 Pskovskaya 3.98 Bessarabian 1.74... Read More
Hot on the heels of the Center for Immigration Studies report comes a study from the PEW polling organization, which estimates that there were 250,000 births to illegal immigrants in the US in 2016. Given the vast challenges in estimating births to illegals, the degree of agreement between the two organizations - which have rather... Read More
A recent Center for Immigration Studies report estimates that 297,073 of the 3,971,146 births in the US in 2014 accrued to illegal immigrants, or 7.5% of the total. This is a primarily Latino phenomenon. This is obvious just from the five states which, at more than 10%, have the highest percentage of births accruing to... Read More
Global Times: China may reward families with more children next year: demographers. It's funny to see China going from a rigid One Child Policy to Russian/Hungarian-style pro-natalism within the space of no more than four years. However, such turnarounds aren't exactly unprecedented in the history of Communist regimes. Mao was a pro-natalist. The One Child... Read More
Via Cicerone, based on data from the CDC for 2016. Audacious Epigone has already written a post to which I have little to add in way of political analysis. You can compare these figures to native European TFR's here.
Convenient summary h/t Ivan Vladimirov. Ireland and Iceland look to be in the best shape. While Ireland is one of Europe's most religious countries, Iceland is one of the least ("0% of Icelanders aged 25 or younger believe world was created by God"). Adjusting for fertility non-EU immigrants also substantially smooths - indeed, probably almost... Read More
Audacious Epigone: This is indeed very encouraging and surprising. The main "problem" with religious high fertility is that they are duller than average. But if reproduction trends within those groups are themselves highly eugenic, then that might cancel things out. However, some questions we need to ask before we rush off to adopt the Theocracy... Read More
Partridge, Emily et al. - 2017 - An extra-uterine system to physiologically support the extreme premature lamb *** Abstract: This is really cool. I have been ad
Now that we have established that immigration is not much good, let's take a look at another component undergirding our transition to Idiocracy - the differential fertility rates of different IQ groups. This is a highly contentious topic, and not just on account of the usual political kurfuffles, but also on real disagreements as to... Read More
When I posted a 2007 map of the share of European children born out of wedlock from Reddit to Twitter, it generated considerably discussion, including a discussion at Razib Kan's blog. There are many rather interesting patterns here: The Nordics, France, The Former GDR, Estonia, Bulgaria all have high rates out of wedlock births. Most... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.