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Elections

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I have said most of what I wanted to say about Belarus in two recent threads, which have since been enriched by many informative comments: The Belarus Horseshoe Why Belarus Isn't Ukraine Hopefully this constitutes a useful background what looks to a pretty dramatic turn in Belorussian politics, as voters head to the polls on... Read More
Here's a map of how Russian citizens abroad voted. (Blue = yes; red = no; via @14ws) As with most expats, Russians abroad skew younger and more liberal, hence the orange/red throughout the West as well as China (e.g. expat heavy/more lib Shanghai expats vote NO, while more diplomat-dominated & vatnik Beijing and Harbin voted... Read More
So the Russians have become the "state-forming people" of the Russian Federation following the completely unsurprising victory of YES. Putin also gets the option of running for two more 6 year terms come 2024. It also happens to be the case that this is very likely the most falsified election/referendum in modern Russian history, though... Read More
Polish Presidential elections currently ongoing. Results of first round now 99%+ counted, with: Duda/PiS: 44% (normiecon) Trzaskowski/Civic Platform - 30% (lib) Hołownia - 14% (SJW) Kosak/Konfederacja - 7% (nationalists, in alliance with that Korwin meme person) Almost all Bosak voters should go to Duda, so he should win in the second round, but it will... Read More
I am a very big supporter of PUTLER's powerful amendments to the Russian Constitution, and have vigorously shilled for them to my Russian followers. That said, in demographic terms, I am an exception. As a young(ish), university educated, self employed (sort of) person, I am in a decided minority amongst my "peer" group, if not... Read More
It was always a longshot. But the Russians who believed that ethnic Russians should have some official status within their putative country persevered. The Russians who believed that Russians, who constitute 85% of Russia's citizens, are not inferior to and do not deserve any less than Jews, who proclaim Israel to be the Jewish State... Read More
As I wrote in my post on the Moscow Duma elections, which took place on September 8, the electoral strategy of the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) - the main pro-Western opposition front to Putin headed by Navalny and his campaign manager Leonid Volkov - was the so-called "Smart Vote." Claiming that many of their candidates had... Read More
One curious point of agreement between anti-imperialist "Western Russophiles" and the most deranged Russophobes (e.g. Arkady Babchenko, who had called him Russia's "future liberal Fuhrer") is the idea that Navalny is a nationalist. This is despite almost no actual, self-identified Russian nationalists considering him as such, and Navalny himself energetically signalling against Russian identity and... Read More
The most notable developments in the 2019 European elections have been: 1. The continued collapse of the center-left (Social Democrats) and center-right (Christian Democrats), the traditional lynchpins of postwar European politics. The Left is also in stagnation, with Corbyn's Labour, Greece's Syriza, Spain's Podemos, and France's Melenchon all having done poorly. 2. The continued rise... Read More
Zelensky [green] vs. Poroshenko [red] via @vybory_91 Raw results here. With 99.74% of votes counted as of the time of writing, Zelensky is at 73.22% to 24.46% to Poroshenko. The sole region where Poroshenko won was in Lvov oblast. Zelensky [green] vs. Poroshenko [red] abroad via @vybory_91. Raw results here. Poroshenko's best performance: Canada, where... Read More
The second round of the Ukrainian elections are this Sunday. * Zelensky is almost certainly going to win (PredictIt has had him at ~95% for weeks now). It looks like he is going to blow Poroshenko out, probably something like Zelensky 67% vs. Poroshenko 30%. * Unless plans change I'll be discussing the Ukrainian elections... Read More
It seems to be the one *major* country where the more intelligent - on average, and adjusting for the east/west gradient - vote for the "nationalist" candidate, Poroshenko. And just to be clear, he has for all intents and purposes captured the nationalist niche, however unlikely. His slogan: "Army, Language, Faith." Meanwhile, Zelensky talks of... Read More
So it's pretty clear from the exit polls that Zelensky and Poroshenko are going to be the ones duking it out in the second round. It's also very likely that the next Ukrainian President is almost certainly going to be Zelensky. The former might have had a chance if there was only 5% separating Poroshenko... Read More
Now that the midterms have panned out as the predictions market expected, here's what we can now expect: *** Good Things: 1. It was mostly GOPe cucks getting slaughtered, not Trumpist nationalists (e.g. Steve King stayed, though on a razor thin margin). At least this means that nationalism has real staying power. 2. Cabinet picks... Read More
Odds of Republicans winning according to: House Senate FiveThirtyEight 13.0% 84.2% PredictWise 34% 78% Hypermind 20% 92% Oddschecker 33% PredictIt 36% 88% Augur 36%
You can discuss the Brazilian elections in this thread. The polls say that it will almost certainly be Bolsonaro. PredictIt is giving him a 95% chance. *** Brazil seems to be an exception to the pattern in the rest of the world where the richest and most intelligent reject the Far Right. But is this... Read More
Every so often I get so comment so good that it needs to be published as its own post (e.g. see Ethiopia). Well, here's one from a Brazilian, Alin: *** 1- Bolsonaro = Macri? No. Macri is a standard vintage neoliberal, Bolsonaro is an actual conservative. Macri just tried (and failed) to legalize abortion in... Read More
Bolsonaro's 46% is just shy of the 50% he needed to win the Brazilian Presidency, while Workers' Party candidate Haddad is at just 29%. While most or all of the rest of the candidates are against Bolsonaro, I still find it difficult to see Haddad winning with these numbers. PredictIt is giving Bolsonaro almost 80%... Read More
Though they remain a solid majority, fewer and fewer Russians are getting their news from TV. . 2009 2013 2018 TV 94% 88% 73% Internet (journals, websites, etc) 9% 21% 37% Friends 26% 24% 18% Social networks 6% 14% 28% Radio 41% 16% 15% Newspapers 37% 20% 13% Journals 8% 4% 3% Other 0% 1%... Read More
Electoral fraud in Russia exists, and is quite prevalent, tilting Putin's and United Russia's results upwards of where "they should up" by up to 10% points since the mid-2000s. That said, Russian electoral fraud has generally not been banana republic tier for a couple of reasons: Electoral fraud usually happens in the counting stages, instead... Read More
On September 9, Moscow is electing its Mayor. The undoubted winner will be Sergey Sobyanin, who is poised to achieve about 70% of the vote. The main "challenger" is KDPR candidate Vadim Kumin, who is slated to do at least twice better than LDPR candidate Mikhail Degtyarev. There are two factors favoring him. First, there... Read More
So the results are in, and... Erdogan wins 52.4%, winning the Presidency - a much more powerful position after the 2017 referendum - on the first round. The AKP just failed to get a majority of seats, though it comfortable clears that level in coalition with the nationalist MHP. Was there fraud? No hard statistical... Read More
Haven't been following it closely, so will refrain from commenting on it myself. Polls: Matt Forney (who is currently living in Hungary) is optimistic on Fidesz/Orban. Some comments from region expert reiner Tor during the past month: 1 The most reputable Hungarian analyst thinks Fidesz will win a narrow majority on Sunday. But because of... Read More
It's 51.4% Zeman vs. 48.6% Drahos. Things seemed dire for Zeman ten days ago, but he scraped by thanks to Drahos having the charisma of a damp rag and the appearance of a low-grade bank clerk (to steal a phrase from Farage). Map. Drahos got 68.8% in Prague, and 90.3% amongst Czechs voting abroad (including... Read More
One hundred years ago (Jan 19, 1918) the Bolsheviks forcibly dissolved the Russian Constituent Assembly, kickstarting the Russian Civil War. Source: @welections Russian Constituent Assembly election, 1917: Brown = Social Revolutionaries; Red = Bolsheviks; Green = Regional SR’s; Yellow = Local parties. More germane reason: The Bolsheviks had only gotten 24.5% of the vote, getting... Read More
The next Czech President will probably be the guy who signed a "scientists against fear and hatred" in response to Zeman's "Islamophobia" and expressed concern about Russian elections hacking. Not only did the tipsy, politically incorrect Zeman underperform his poll numbers by around 4% points in the first round of the elections, but current polls... Read More
Yet more evidence for the theory that Communism "deep froze" social attitudes. Now yes, you can rejoinder with a comparison to Nazi voting patterns. But look... 1. The borders of the former DDR are very cleanly delineated. The AfD's share of the vote there ranged from 19% in Mecklenburg-Vorprommern to 27% in Saxony. In contrast,... Read More
In my coverage of the French elections, I've been vaccilating between optimism and pessimism. Obviously, Le Pen's result - 34% of the vote - was unprecedentedly good, and her popularity seemed to be especially strong amongst French youth. On the other hand, it was perhaps not as good a result as could have been expected,... Read More
So the new President of the Fifth Republic is a cocaine-snorting, Bilderberg-attending, Rothschild bank-employed "outsider" and bisexual gigolo with offshore accounts in the Cayman Islands who believes there is no such as French culture (but let's import infinity Moslems just to make sure). We are reaching levels of globalism that shouldn't even be possible! ***... Read More
I don't have much to add to my previous posts on this matter: The French Elections 2017 (Round One) Le Pen Is Out of Ink The French Blackpill, Quantified Stark Truth: On the French Elections Global Opinion of Marine Le Pen An n=8,200 Ipsos poll from May 5 gave Emmanual Macron 63% to Le Pen's... Read More
I haven't been able to locate any international surveys on Macron vs. Le pen like there were for Trump, unsurprisingly so, since France is after all less important than the US. Still, I have been able to find polls from Germany, Russia, and the UK. *** According to a ZDF poll of who would be... Read More
My latest podcast with Robert Stark, co-host and proponent of Asian-Aryanism pilleater, and Alt Right legend Guillaume Durocher, who has written for Counter-Currents, Radix, and Occidental Observer. We mostly talked about the French elections and French demographics. Here's a link: The final election round between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron The French Elections 2017... Read More
One of the reasons that I consider the results of these elections to have been strongly disappointing for the Front National is that it represents not just a stunting but a reversal of their upwards trend since the late 2000s. For instance, back in December 2015, the Front National almost doubled their share of the... Read More
france-elections-2017-whos-who
François Hollande, widely considered to be a failure with single digit approval ratings, has - unusually for French politics - decided not to run for a second term. The polls are now split almost evenly between four canditates: The neoliberal Emmanuel Macron; the hard left Jean-Luc Mélenchon; the conservative François Fillon; and the nationalist Marine... Read More
The results are in and YES has won a narrow 51.4% victory in the Turkish referendum on making the country into a Presidential republic. This map I found (via Turkish Wikipedia) is the only one to show regional gradations. It shows the percentage of people voting NO. It is electorally very typical for Turkey, which... Read More
I realize everyone is obsessed with North Kora right now, but the Turkish referendum that is set for April 16 may turn out to be even more significant. Erdogan's AKP and the MHP nationalists have proposed a set of amendments to the Turkish constitution that would remove the office of the Prime Minister, annul a... Read More
So this was pretty bad. Wilders' PVV did increase its share of the vote by 3% points relative to the last elections, but considering the hopes and fears getting pum pumped up, this was certainly a defeat for populism - as Hollande, Merkel, Juncker, Macron, and all the other Respectable Politicians recognized as they rushed... Read More
Simon Hix has published graphs showing the percentage share accruing to different ideological families in European elections since 1918. The first thing that strikes one is how constant things have been, all things considered. There was a Radical Right spike in the early 1930s, and a longer-term Radical Left resurgence following the war that petered... Read More
As I've pointed out, support for the pro-Western agenda in Russia is highly circumscribed, usually in the low single digits, never higher than 10%. However, much like with divisions in Europe, Britain, and the US - where the globalist agenda (HRC, "Stay," etc) are supported by multinational and cosmpolitan rich elites in the big cities... Read More
(1) United Russia was polling at around 40% according to different pollsters (both state-owned FOM and VCIOM, as well as independent Levada) in the run-up to the elections. However, adjusting for undecideds would raise it to 55%. This is in line with United Russia's official tally of 54.14%. That said, it should be noted that... Read More
Unless there is a truly stunning reversal soon, a victory for Remain is increasingly looking to be mathematically impossible. England outside London is voting 60% Leave. The two biggest Remain hotspots, London and Scotland, do not have the numbers to make up for it. Meanwhile, Wales and Northern Ireland are too evenly divided and too... Read More
Source: Ben Garrison - Abandon Ship In recent days the Brexit debate has suddenly gone from boring to interesting, with opinion polls swinging from a comfortable lead for Remain to a neck and neck race between staying in and leaving the EU. One of the most recent polls has even seen Leave take a ten... Read More
An absolute majority - 51.5% - of French policemen and soldiers planned to vote for the Front National in the recent regional elections, according to a poll by CEVIPOF. This is far more impressive than the oft quoted 20% of Greek policemen who support Golden Dawn (though to be sure Golden Dawn is far more... Read More
Here are my US Presidential elections of 2016 results from what is possibly the most comprehensive quiz/polling site on the issue: I have to say that this tool is quite accurate. For instance, in my 2012 results, it identified Barack Obama as the (realistically) best candidate I could support. If I was 100% American I... Read More
The map above (adapted from Wikipedia) shows the changes in Syriza's and New Democracy's electoral fortunes between the elections in January, 2015 and the new elections yesterday. A couple provinces flipped to Syriza, and three turned to ND. In short, no meaningful change at all, a fact also reflected in both the number of seats... Read More
The results for all 650 constituencies in, time to make some brief observations. (1) Almost everyone was wrong (including myself). It is 1992 all over again, with opinion polls massively understating Conservative support. (2) Regionally, the story was essentially one of Conservative and SNP triumph in England and Scotland, respectively. Miliband (Labour), Clegg (LibDem), and... Read More
As voting gets underway - and by all accounts, it seems to be overwhelmingly heading for the pro-secession choice - it's worthwhile to dispel four common but erroneous beliefs about it. (1) The referendum is unconstitutional. This is true enough, as all of Ukraine would have to vote on it. But there is one big... Read More
1. The CEC results Here they are. The turnout was 32%. Sergey Sobyanin – 51.37% Alexei Navalny – 27.24% Ivan Melnikov – 10.69% Sergey Mitrokhin – 3.51% Mikhail Degtyaryov – 2.86% Nikolai Levichev – 2.79% Invalid ballots – 1.53% 2. Pre-elections opinion polls: Navalny's support - among those who indicated a clear preference for one... Read More
According to a roundup of all the major exit polls by Kommersant, it appears that although Navalny's performance was massively better than expected, Acting Mayor Sobyanin still managed to avoid a second tour. In Moscow, voting has finished for the new Mayor. According to exit polls carried out at the doors of the election stations... Read More
A couple of polls to provide the fodder for the subsequent discussions. Feel free to provide an exact figure (to one decimal place) for Navalny's percentage share in the comments and we can have a little competition along the lines of the one we had for the Presidential elections. Background - Sobyanin vs. Navalny in... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.