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Demographics

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This is Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's assessment of global excess mortality from COVID-19 from the beginning until May 3, 2021. (h/t Ron Unz) You can read about the methodology here. All in all, this sadly comports with the "millions" prediction I made in February 24, 2020. While at the end of last year... Read More
Population is power, so it pays to keep track of it (along with national IQ and GDPcc), for those with an interest in geopolitics and futurism. I used to spend way too much time poring over statistics almanacs and the CIA World Factbook during my school years, so I have a pretty good fix on... Read More
(h/t @popdemography) Anyhow, very good/comprehensive map, with almost surprises. The only thing that was a real TIL to me was the increase in Belgorod oblast, which is the green region next to Kharkov oblast in Ukraine. Its TFR is low like in most central Russian regions, but it's apparently a popular destination for Russians from... Read More
From Twitter demographer Cicerone (now @BirthGauge): For some countries, this is the last update (November) for which realized births still reflect fertility decisions taken before the onset of Corona - which, judging from anecdotal reports, will crater them further, but we'll see*. Broadly, this continues a trend I have already observed of most of the... Read More
In this "summary" post on Corona 2020, I will cover some of the following. Recap what we know about Corona, what we have learned in the past year, and what policies should have been undertaken; The big picture of global excess mortality that is emerging for 2020; Discuss the vaccines, "vaccine geopolitics", and Corona's impact... Read More
This the news from the latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), covering the years 2019-20. (h/t Cicerone, now Tweeting as @BirthGauge): Previous NFHS surveys at Wikipedia stretching to 1981. India overall is now at TFR = 2.1 children per woman. Kerala, long one of the lowest TFR states (as well as one of the most... Read More
A correspondent brought this new paper to my attention: Binder, Seth, Ethan Holdahl, Ly Trinh, and John H. Smith. 2020. “Humanity’s Fundamental Environmental Limits.” Human Ecology, April. This is in the same order of magnitude as my ~100 billion estimate. Our results also approximate those of models tied to current technologies. De Wit (1967) and... Read More
Time for this year's update, now that 2019 preliminary stats are out. I am not going to write much for this one, since there's nothing new or interesting. For the most part, updating the graphs should suffice. For extended commentary, you'd be better off reading the last one. None of the main trends have changed:... Read More
Subregional map of mean ideal number of children for women (of reproductive age: 15-49) in Sub-Saharan Africa. Source: DHS Program (map it yourself) The UN projects that while Europe stagnates, Sub-Saharan Africa's population will explode from ~one billion today to almost four billion souls by the end of the century. Steve Sailer famously calls this... Read More
World map of mean ideal number of children for women (of reproductive age: 15-49). Source: DHS Program (map it yourself) See also my region specific posts on fertility preferences in: Europe Russia Africa This map fills in the spots elsewhere. South America: Constricting the sample to surveys performed in the 2010s, it seems the region... Read More
One of the nicest sites on the Internet for data freaks is Max Roser's Our World in Data, which produces lavishly illustrated graphs on a wide variety of political, economics, and society-related topics. The links to the original data sources are also very useful. I found something similar (if much smaller scale) for Russia at... Read More
New census finds that there are 37.3M people in the Ukraine, down by almost 30% relative to their Soviet era peak of 52M. This means that at least semi-officially, the Ukraine now has a lower population than Poland for the first time in recorded history. In reality, even this is probably a significant overestimate: Official... Read More
While we wait for the last data to trickle in to update Russian Demographics in 2019 for the new year, I would note that Rosstat released a new demographic forecast at the end of December. Here is the TLDR on what they project for 2035: As usual, there is a Low, Medium, and High scenario.... Read More
As I have written in prior posts, Russian demographics continues to improve as it has throughout the Putin era (Russian Demographics in 2019). Life expectancy is going up very rapidly, constituting a new record of 73.6 years as of the first eight months of this year. Deaths from external causes continue to plummet, including homicide... Read More
I am not going to cover things that well-informed normies already know: How Israel is a weird outlier in fertility by First World standards, and the collapse of fertility in the Islamic world; how life expectancy has been soaring nearly everywhere; the "Great White Death" in the US and how all races in the US... Read More
As commenter Reykur recently pointed out - citing the work of the blogger denalt, there is a rather curious phenomenon occurring in a few ethnic Russian regions, where rural fertility has exploded in the past decade. There are precisely four of these regions - Arkhangelsk, Komi, Kirov, and Karelia - and they are all located... Read More
This is yet another question that excites much heated commentary in the "Ukraine debates." There is a "school" of thought amongst the more ideological Russophiles that the Ukraine has completely emptied out. Here is an article by Andrey Fomin in which he argues that it only has 22-24 million people versus the official figure of... Read More
In my tradition of rescuing sufficiently fine comments from the relative oblivion that are long comments sections, I am reprinting Thulean Friend's detailed comment on Israel's prospects in the last Open Thread. *** I got into a discussion with Dmitry some time ago about emigration patterns from Israel. His postion was that it was an... Read More
In one of my posts on the Age of Malthusian Industrialism, I pointed out that groups such as the Amish and the Mormons will be some of the first to become saturated with genotypic breeders: Now, here is a map of how this may look like, courtesy of /pol/*: Projecting forwards another century after 2100,... Read More
Graph of air accidents in Russia 1923-2019 (via the blogger genby). Thin red line - deaths per year; Thick red line - deaths averaged over 5 years. Thin blue line - accidents per year; Thick blue line - accidents averaged over 5 yeas. Mishaps regardless, flying continues to become much safer in Russia, just like... Read More
This was a very nice livestream in which JF Gariépy gave my the chance to concisely set out my views on the intersection of Russia, the Alt Right, Russian foreign policy, and the Western media (amongst other things).
I have sometimes made the point that All-Russian improvements in mortality/life expectancy lag the City of Moscow (or the Baltics) by around a decade. There are some good, relevant graphics that reinforce it from a recent paper: Щур, Алексей Евгеньевич. 2019. “Города-миллионники на карте смертности России.” Демографическое обозрение 5 (4): 66–91. GRAPH: Life expectancy [male/female]... Read More
(Foreign-owned) Moscow Times: Russia Will Be One-Third Muslim in 15 Years, Chief Mufti Predicts I hope my readers are well acquainted enough with my reporting on Russian demographics to identify this for the BS this is. But if not, here is a refresher: Russia Becoming *More* Russian From Russia to Russabia? Not Anytime Soon
I keep citing Twitter demographer @Cicerone1973. I don't know if he is a professional analyst, but his own projections of Russian TFR and LE usually match mine to the decimal point, so I am sure that he knows what he's doing. And what I try to do for Russia he does for most of the... Read More
So far as Western media tropes on Russia go, this one is in the almost entirely false category. See my most recent comprehensive debunking here: The Nth Wave of Russian Emigration. The "increase" in question almost exclusively accrued to greater numbers of Central Asians leaving Russia after the 2014 devaluation made working in Russia as... Read More
Last year’s summary: Russian Demographics in 2018 [2016; 2014]. Preliminary data for 2018 is in. Births, deaths, and natural increase in Russia, 1946-2018. There were about 1,599,316 (10.9/1,000) births in 2018, a decline of 5.4% relative to the 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017. There were about 1,817,710 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2018, a decline of 0.4%... Read More
This is the fourth in a series of posts about the demographics of the coming Age of Malthusian Industrialism. In the decades and centuries to come, technological progress will slow to a crawl, as dysgenic reproduction patterns deplete the world's remaining smart fractions (assuming that there are no abrupt discontinuities in humanity's capacity for collective... Read More
This is the third in a series of posts about the demographics of the coming Age of Malthusian Industrialism. In the decades and centuries to come, technological progress will slow to a crawl, as dysgenic reproduction patterns deplete the world's remaining smart fractions (assuming that there are no abrupt discontinuities in humanity's capacity for collective... Read More
Cicerone comments: All valid, excellent points. The UK was still a bit in front of Germany, though I agree that it's really France that stands out. Fertility rates in UK, Germany, France 1800-2015. There's a huge variety of other factors to consider, for instance: 1. Starting genotypic fertility preferences (e.g. during the medieval age and... Read More
This is the second in a series of posts about the demographics of the coming Age of Malthusian Industrialism. In the decades and centuries to come, technological progress will slow to a crawl, as dysgenic reproduction patterns deplete the world's remaining smart fractions (assuming that there are no abrupt discontinuities in humanity's capacity for collective... Read More
This is a Russia-specific offshoot to my previous post Where Do Babies Come from? For reference purposes, here is how Russia's actual TFR has developed since the end of WW2. Since I last posted substantially on the topic of Russia fertility preferences in 2009-2010, a lot more data has come in. Here is a survey... Read More
I have always been fascinated by the blogger Audacious Epigone's theory about Generation Zyklon - the surprising and counterintuitive idea that America's youngest cohort are rejective progressive propaganda in the schools and media, and becoming as "based" as their Silent forefathers. It's an important question, after all, and one that will determine to what extent... Read More
Brockhaus and Efron Encyclopedic Dictionary (1890-1907) on illegitimate births: Illegitimate births / 100 births in Russia in 1892: St. Petersburg 15.92 Smolenskaya 1.93 Moscow 13.65 Kazan 1.90 Lifland 6.36 Mogilev 1.89 Estland 4.46 Vladimirskaya 1.86 Arkhangelsk 4.33 Kharkiv 1.84 Kovno 4.12 Tverskaya 1.82 Perm 4.07 Olonets 1.79 Yaroslavskaya 4.03 Kaluzhskaya 1.75 Pskovskaya 3.98 Bessarabian 1.74... Read More
The Commieblock: Hopefully AquariusAnon appreciates this. I am very happy to see that Guillaume Durocher has joined The Unz Review. Only the best people! Here is a short intro to what he'll be writing about: You can browse his archives at Occidental Observer, Counter-Currents, and Radix. I a
Hot on the heels of the Center for Immigration Studies report comes a study from the PEW polling organization, which estimates that there were 250,000 births to illegal immigrants in the US in 2016. Given the vast challenges in estimating births to illegals, the degree of agreement between the two organizations - which have rather... Read More
Guillaume Durocher has an English language write-up of the disquieting conclusions reached by researchers at the nationalist French website Fdesouche. These assertions are based on the percentage of Muslim first names granted at birth, statistics for which can be downloaded from INSEE (France) and Statbel (Belgium). Here are the original articles: Baromètre 2018 du taux... Read More
Couple of telling Breitbart headlines. * 42% of children in West Germany comes from migrant background It's a double whammy. While the US continues to remains very attractive for white Americans, this doesn't seem to be the case for Germany and native Germans. Not only are immigrants coming in, but Germans are going out. That,... Read More
Map of Greeks and Armenians in Turkey, before and after the genocides/expulsions of the 1910s-20s, and consequent demographic growth (via /r/Mapporn). As I noted before, I can't think of any other major region where the strategic population balance changed so drastically during the course of the past century. Around 1914, there were 15.0 million Muslims... Read More
If you're interested in real time demographics updates, you could do worse than follow Cicerone1973. Every couple of months, he provides an update of the fertility situation in those countries that maintain up to date statistics (s0, mostly the developed world and ex-socialist bloc). Anyhow, something pretty weird is happening. Fertility is plummeting across pretty... Read More
Global Times: China may reward families with more children next year: demographers. It's funny to see China going from a rigid One Child Policy to Russian/Hungarian-style pro-natalism within the space of no more than four years. However, such turnarounds aren't exactly unprecedented in the history of Communist regimes. Mao was a pro-natalist. The One Child... Read More
Can the Ukrainians really be trusted? Andreev, E. et al (2013) - Comparing alcohol mortality in Tsarist and contemporary Russia: is the current situation historically unique? This is the question that arose on finding that paper. Probably not! Anyhow, AP, you're welcome to this latest nugget of Ukrotriumphalism. Fig. 1. The rate of sudden male... Read More
Vasily Vereshchagin. Apotheosis of War (1871). There have recently been discussions on Mesoamerican civilizations prior to the Spanish incursions on this blog, in light of the recently unearthed racks of thousands of skulls sacrificed in honor of the blood gods. Interesting fact about Tenochtitlan, capital of the Aztec Empire: With a population of 250,000 in... Read More
Commenter Betlo alerts us to an interesting development in Sweden. In a recent school election, the Sweden Democrats got 57% of the vote, in the largest secondary school of Kristianstad Municipality. The neoliberal but moderately anti-immigration Moderate Party came second, with 19%. "Peer pressure" is cited as one explanation, though according to one pupil, a... Read More
The blogger Audacious Epigone has done yeoman's work over the past couple of years documenting the surprising "basedness" of Generation Z(yklon). With the collapse of the Alt Right and Trump turning out to be a damp squib, it might well be that Gen Z is the last best hope for America to remain a somewhat... Read More
Belated comment on the Kemerovo fire that killed 64 people, including 41 children. 1. Tragedies like this are inevitable and will always happen, the best that could be done is working to minimize and mitigate them (personally I favor legislating exorbitant compensation for victims, since money > ethics so far as almost all businesses are... Read More
Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun... Read More
Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the... Read More
PEW has just made three different projections of the Islamic percentage of Europe's population in 2050. Map of Muslim share of each European country today and in 2015 (High scenario). Here are the assumptions behind each of them: Low: All migration into Europe stops from 2016. Muslims still increase from 4.9% to 7.4% by 2050... Read More
Results of the Pakistan Census are out and show that the population has reached 207,774,520 people as of 2017. After hurtling past Russia around 2000, Pakistan has now just about converged with Brazil, which has approximately 207,932,000 people as of this year. Considering that Pakistan increases by 4 million every year to less than 2... Read More
Credit: Ivan Musinov. There is this strange dichotomy with respect to Russia. The Western elites like Hillary Clinton and many Russophile right-wingers believe that it is a paragon of fascist/conservative and white supremacist/traditionalist values, respectively. (The main difference being that the former think that this is Bad, while the latter think it's Good). On the... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.