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Age of Malthusian Industrialism

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Why Western SJWs are the Real Racists
Bold but not entirely trollish interpretation of the Great Awokening. Western - White American - culture remains hegemonic around the world, even as its economic and military preponderance slips away. Assuming this cultural hegemony remains intact, cultural "innovations" that arise in the imperial metropolis inevitably seep their way into the colonies. This is obviously correct... Read More
A correspondent brought this new paper to my attention: Binder, Seth, Ethan Holdahl, Ly Trinh, and John H. Smith. 2020. “Humanity’s Fundamental Environmental Limits.” Human Ecology, April. This is in the same order of magnitude as my ~100 billion estimate. Our results also approximate those of models tied to current technologies. De Wit (1967) and... Read More
I am not going to cover things that well-informed normies already know: How Israel is a weird outlier in fertility by First World standards, and the collapse of fertility in the Islamic world; how life expectancy has been soaring nearly everywhere; the "Great White Death" in the US and how all races in the US... Read More
In my Age of Malthusian Industrialism concept (see archive), I explore the possibility of a future scenario in which technology stagnates due to problems becoming harder and dysgenic reproduction patterns. Meanwhile, the demographic transition will be reversed, since fertility preferences are heritable, and ultra-competitive in a post-Malthusian world. This may eventually bring the world population... Read More
Sweden (Yes!) comes in for a hard time with the Alt Right and the /pol/ crowd on the Internet where it has basically become a meme. However, there's something Sweden - and the Nordics - are doing right. According to Twitter demographer Cicerone's calculations, the Nordics are the only major world region where fertility rates... Read More
Spolaore, Enrico, and Romain Wacziarg. 2019. “Fertility and Modernity.” Working Paper Series. National Bureau of Economic Research. As hbd*chick points out, this suggests that the fertility transition in Europe was substantially independent of the Industrial Revolution, and was a process of cultural diffusion that emanated from France (where it began before 1830).
reiner tor comments: Anyway, regardless of Nobel laureates, it’s pretty likely that East Asians are somewhat deficient in the nonconformism department, and so while they’re likely to excel (and overtake whites) in the “add together existing technologies and make them stronger” type of activities, not that many truly original inventions are likely to come from... Read More
In one of my posts on the Age of Malthusian Industrialism, I pointed out that groups such as the Amish and the Mormons will be some of the first to become saturated with genotypic breeders: Now, here is a map of how this may look like, courtesy of /pol/*: Projecting forwards another century after 2100,... Read More
Since the end of the Malthusian era, science-based technological growth has been the source of almost all long-term economic growth. However, we also know that it didn't accrue in all regions evenly. For instance, Charles Murray in Human Accomplishment showed that the vast majority of "eminent" figures in science and the arts hailed from Europe,... Read More
Recent paper (h/t @whyvert). Kim, Yuri, and James J. Lee. 2018. “The Genetics of Human Fertility.” Current Opinion in Psychology 27 (August): 41–45. There's basically two classes of people having more kids: Interesting to see who will win out by the time of the Age of Malthusian Industrialism. (Certainly the former would be more successful... Read More
There are 10^23 to 10^24 neurons on the planet. The human brain has around 86 billion neurons. World population * human neurons = 10^~10*11^~10 = 10^~21 (slightly less, but let's round up). This means the human population can "safely" increase by at least two more orders of magnitude to 1 to 10 trillion, so the... Read More
This is the fourth in a series of posts about the demographics of the coming Age of Malthusian Industrialism. In the decades and centuries to come, technological progress will slow to a crawl, as dysgenic reproduction patterns deplete the world's remaining smart fractions (assuming that there are no abrupt discontinuities in humanity's capacity for collective... Read More
In my third post on the Age of Malthusian Industrialism, I suggested: Happily, it looks like some people have already started doing that. Barban, Nicola et al. (2017) - Genome-wide analysis identifies 12 loci influencing human reproductive behavior Here's a very interesting graph from the paper:
This is the third in a series of posts about the demographics of the coming Age of Malthusian Industrialism. In the decades and centuries to come, technological progress will slow to a crawl, as dysgenic reproduction patterns deplete the world's remaining smart fractions (assuming that there are no abrupt discontinuities in humanity's capacity for collective... Read More
Cicerone comments: All valid, excellent points. The UK was still a bit in front of Germany, though I agree that it's really France that stands out. Fertility rates in UK, Germany, France 1800-2015. There's a huge variety of other factors to consider, for instance: 1. Starting genotypic fertility preferences (e.g. during the medieval age and... Read More
This is the second in a series of posts about the demographics of the coming Age of Malthusian Industrialism. In the decades and centuries to come, technological progress will slow to a crawl, as dysgenic reproduction patterns deplete the world's remaining smart fractions (assuming that there are no abrupt discontinuities in humanity's capacity for collective... Read More
This is the first in a series of posts about the demographics of the coming Age of Malthusian Industrialism. In the decades and centuries to come, technological progress will slow to a crawl, as dysgenic reproduction patterns deplete the world's remaining smart fractions (assuming that there are no abrupt discontinuities in humanity's capacity for collective... Read More
Pursuant to the discussions at the last big thread, I am making a quick post with my assessments of how realistic various "transhumanist" spheres of technology are. *** Has been, is, and will continue to happen - and will affect lower-IQ occupations sooner. Since it takes IQ to design and maintain the robots, this will... Read More
The population of the world's major regions according to the UN's World Population Prospects 2017 report. World Population Prospects (2017) 2015 2050 2100 WORLD 7,383,008,820 9,771,822,753 11,184,367,721 Sub-Saharan Africa 969,234,251 2,167,651,879 4,001,755,801 East Asia 1,635,150,365 1,586,491,284 1,198,264,520 South Asia 1,823,308,471 2,381,796,561 2,230,668,781 South-East Asia 634,609,846 797,648,622 771,527,666 MENA & C. Asia 551,964,576 850,895,914 1,045,856,658 Europe... Read More
Kong, Augustine et al. - 2016 - Selection against variants in the genome associated with educational attainment This paper makes the case that there has been a decline in the prevalence of genes increasing propensity for more education (POLYEDU) in Iceland from 1910-1975. Here are some of the key points: The main mechanism was greater... Read More
manyukhin-tower-of-sin
Fundamentally solve the “intelligence problem,” and all other problems become trivial. The problem is that this problem is a very hard one, and our native wit is unlikely to suffice. Moreover, because problems tend to get harder, not easier, as you advance up the technological ladder (Karlin, 2015), in a “business as usual” scenario with... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.