(millions of current Int$)
|—||European Union[n 3]||18,377,114|||
Not a big deal. It already happened in 2013. And Russia came very close to overtaking Germany as early as 2008. So the real story is one of Russia and Germany intermittently flipping places (in PPP terms) in line with global economic and oil price trends.
Coronavirus not changing much in this regard, Russia is going to be hit hard by the oil price collapse, but so is Germany by the collapse of international demand for its industrial exports.
More interesting trend in that general $4 trillion region is how Indonesia has been steadily catching up, now soaring well past Brazil. I don’t think it will escape the middle income trap (mediocre IQ), so expect it to join the long tussle between Germany & Russia (unless the latter revvies up in the 2020s and draws closer to Japan).
More generally, the big change is how the EU has suddenly fallen distinctly behind the US (Brexit) and how China continues soaring above the US.