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russia-ussr-homicide-rate-1875-2018

The data is based on Goertzel, Ted & al. (2012), Homicide Booms and Busts A Small-N Comparative Historical Study.

russia-homicide-rates-historical The lead author kindly emailed me the data used to build their graphs (their version is on the right), which I used to construct the above graph of Russian historical homicide rates from 1875 to 2018.

***

Russian homicide rates were stable at around 5/100,000 in Tsarist Russia from 1875, according to a couple of studies that they cite. This was above the 1-2/100,000 rate in contemporary “Core Europe” (Britain, France, Germany, the Low Countries, and Scandinavia); Russia lagged Germany by about a century, and Britain, one of the world’s first states to undergo cultural and (perhaps) genetic pacification, last saw such figures in the 17th century. However, Russia’s homicide rates were nonetheless similar to countries such as Italy, Finland, and even Japan. Contrary to the scenes of barbarity that authors such as Orlando Figes have painted of the Russian village, in reality it does not appear to have been especially violent relative to much of the rest of the world outside Core Europe at that time.

ussr-convictions-rate-1922-1960 Records are sparse from the Russian Civil War to the end of Stalinism. It is clear that the aftermath of the Bolshevik coup and Russia’s collapse saw a huge spike in criminality. Russian criminologist Viktor Luneev in Crime in the 20th Century writes that Moscow saw 11 times as many murders in 1918 as it did in 1914, and “crime intensity” in the new capital increased by a further 50% by 1921. I have been unable to find any sources or estimates of homicides during the 1920s, but the general crime situation could be approximated by the rate of convictions per capita, which are available for the RSFSR since 1922 (statistics for the USSR are also available, but they are less reliable). The RSFSR convictions rate falls from 2,500-3,000/100,000 in 1922-1924 to 1,000/100,000 in 1927-28, before going up to nearly 1,500/100,000 during the early 1930s famine years. These numbers seem plausible, since the 1920s have a reputation as having been highly criminalized, as evidenced by the popular culture of that time, which saw the emergence of criminal music genres.

The RSFSR convictions rate fell back to 900/100,000 by 1935, at which point it ends and the all-USSR series resumes after a break in the early 1930s, standing at 700/100,000 during that same year. By the late 1930s, the Soviet rate falls to around 550/100,000, where – apart from a minor spike in 1946-47, which marks post-war demobilization – it stayed until Stalin’s death.

ussr-homicide-urban-1935-1954

The Central Statistics Directorate (РГАЭ 1562.33.2638) has numbers for urban homicides in the USSR from 1935-1954, which I found via the @burckina-faso blog. Using Census and approximated numbers for the Soviet urban population during these years*, I calculated that the Soviet urban homicide rate fluctuated between 5-7/100,000 during 1935-1952, except for a spike to 10-12/100,000 during the 1945-47 demobilization period**.

I expect that the urban Soviet homicide rate would have been representative of the Russian homicide rate overall. From the late USSR to today, rural areas had higher homicide rates than urban ones, and Russian areas had higher homicide rates than Soviet ones. However, the first factor was much weaker (if at all existent) when the country was still primarily rural, and much of the gap between Russian and non-Russian areas opened up after the 1960s alcoholization epidemic, which hit Russian areas relatively harder.

ussr-gulag-prisoners

At this point it’s worthwhile to make a few observations. There were 6,321 executions in the Russian Empire between 1825 and 1917; that was a typical couple of years in the early USSR (not counting 1937-38, which saw almost 700,000 death sentences). The Russian Empire imprisoned around 100/100,000 people, which compares favorably with many modern countries; Stalin created the world’s first major prison-industrial complex. All manner of firearms were openly sold in the Russian Empire; the Bolsheviks confiscated private weapons stocks in 1918, and Stalin went so far as to ban some types of knives.

Even so, homicide rates in the urban USSR from 1935-1955 were no better than those in the Russian Empire.

There is much better data for the RSFSR from 1955, which is shown on the graph (via Bogoyavlensky). Data from 1990 is drawn directly from Rosstat. What you have what should be a familiar picture to regular readers of my Russia demographics posts: Increase up to the early 1980s, then a drop correlating with Gorbachev’s anti-alcohol campaign, then an explosion in the 1990s when the alcoholization epidemic reached peak levels and the Russian state fell apart at the same time. Since the reversal of both of these trends since the early to mid-2000s, partly but not exclusively thanks to the Putin government (these improvements are common to the entire post-Soviet world), the homicide rate in Russia has been plummeting ever since.

Russia’s homicide rate had fallen back to 6.0/100,000 in 2017, and it is currently at 5.4/100,000 for the first nine months of 2018. Since the homicide rate was 5.3/100,000 in the US last year, this means there’s a good chance that Russia will drop to America’s level this year and become absolutely safer in the next few years.

I am not going to going into further details here, since I have already written plenty about the post-1965 alcoholization crisis, its relation to homicide rates and other social and health problems, and its reversal under Putin. People interested in my previous posts on this can consult the Demography section of my archives: http://akarlin.com/category/demographics/

***

russia-homicide-rate-1875-2018-compared

It is also worth taking a minute to take a look at the international context during this period:

Japan and Italy are notable as two countries with homicide rates not too dissimilar from those of the Russian Empire a century ago, that have since converged to those of England & Wales, which was an extremely peace-abiding country back then – even though this is no longer the case now, probably mainly thanks to Black Caribbean immigrants.

Finland: Finland was killing (and drinking) at rates similar to that of the Russian Empire at large before the Revolution. However, they had decidedly diverged by the end of World War II. Due to its propensity for drink, Finland is still somewhat more violent than typical First World nation, but only modestly so. Absent the USSR and its alcoholization epidemic in particular, Finland is probably where Russia “should” be – and will probably eventually converge to.

USA: The Russian Empire was twice safer than the United States. They equalized under Stalin, and remained in sync for the rest of the Cold War – though for different reasons. In Russia, the alcoholization epidemic resulted in more and more cases of middle-aged men bludgeoning or stabbing each other to death in days-long zapoi in their apartments (though street crime remained modest until the 1990s). In the United States, crime rose from the 1960s due to adverse economic and social changes, as well as liberals hamstringing the criminal justice system. Harsher law and order policies started dragging the US rate down from the early 1990s, while Russia exploded into a flurry of what the eXile people called “death porn” and temporarily dallied with the likes of Colombia and South Africa on the violence scales before it started to sober up in the 2000s. Although Russia will soon become less violent than the United States, these figures are still nothing to write home about, because of America’s specific demographic composition.

This comparative exercise shows us that in homicide rates as in almost everything else, the Soviet period constituted an unmitigated disaster for Russia.

***

* Soviet urban population (source, and my estimates in italics).

Year Soviet urban population
1935 46,100,000
1936 48,600,000
1937 51,100,000
1938 53,600,000
1939 56,100,000
1940 63,100,000
1941 64,000,000
1942 36,181,453
1943 46,049,121
1944 54,045,201
1945 60,000,000
1946 62,000,000
1947 64,000,000
1948 66,000,000
1949 68,000,000
1950 69,600,000
1951 73,000,000
1952 77,000,000
1953 80,300,000
1954 84,400,000

** ussr-homicide-rates-1940-1946 Another graph I found via the @genby blog shows registered murders per year in 1940-46 (see right).

Unfortunately, they are unsourced, so it’s unclear what can be done with them.

.

 
• Category: Race/Ethnicity • Tags: Crime, Homicide, Paper Review, Russia 
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  1. melanf says:

    There were 6,321 executions in the Russian Empire between 1825 and 1917; that was a typical couple of years in the early USSR (not counting 1937-38, which saw almost 700,000 death sentences). The Russian Empire imprisoned around 100/100,000 people, which compares favorably with many modern countries;

    I doubt it’s a compliment to the Russian Empire. Systematic extermination of any criminals (with the help of the gallows) would be much more useful for the genetics of the population.

  2. melanf says:

    All manner of firearms were openly sold in the Russian Empire;

    In the 18th century was specifically permitted individuals to purchase field guns at military factories.

    • Replies: @S
  3. Contrary to the scenes of barbarity that authors such as Orlando Figes have painted of the Russian village, in reality it does not appear to have been especially violent relative to much of the rest of the world outside Core Europe at that time.

    Selfish question: How credible is Figes as a source on Russian history? (I read A People’s Tragedy a couple years ago in an attempt to better understand the basics of the Russian* Revolution(s).)

    *No Solzhenitsyn copypasta, please; the revolutions in question happened in Russia, which is why English speakers usually refer to them as such.

    • Replies: @melanf
    , @Aslangeo
    , @DFH
    , @Che Guava
  4. Another sloppy disingenuous ridiculous attempt at blackening the name of a system the majority of Russians would prefer to go back to. Graphs do not prove that you are smart.

    • Replies: @anonymous coward
  5. utu says:

    [1] “6,321 executions in the Russian Empire between 1825 and 1917″ – Are you sure? I always thought it was much much lower.

    [2] http://www.unz.com/akarlin/lenin/#comment-2071234

    [3]

    • Replies: @forgottenpseudonym
  6. @obwandiyag

    a system the majority of Russians would prefer to go back to

    Lol no. That Russians don’t want to support America’s homosexual “victory” against the USSR doesn’t mean they want that shitty system back.

    For one, the Soviet stance on religion means that nobody in Russia wants to go back to the USSR.

  7. Anonymous[123] • Disclaimer says:

    Could you stop using such disgusting bolshevik slander as ‘Tsarist Russia’? The word you are looking for is ‘Russian Empire’.

    Or be consistent and include Queenist England, Kingist Belgium, and Presidentist France into your vocabulary…

  8. utu says:

    OT: Sam Vaknin: the TRUE toxicity of social media

    • Replies: @Sin City Milla
  9. neutral says:

    Do those homicide rates for Russia pre 1990 include Central Asia and the Caucasus? If they do, am I right in assuming that the average murder rate was higher in these non Russian areas?

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  10. BonnerTal says:

    As an aside: Ted Goertzel is probably the father of AGI researcher Ben Goertzel.

    Also: When is the world-wide science blogpost coming up?

  11. Anon[133] • Disclaimer says:

    US whites have a homicide rate of 2.5 so still above vast majority of European states. I wonder what accounts for that.

    • Replies: @neutral
  12. Let me guess, he will ask for a new loan to help repay previous loans as well as the money he owes to Rosneft.

  13. Hey Anatoly/everyone

    Sorta OT but since Orlando Figes was mentioned, any recommendations on (English-available) general history books on the Russian Revolution(s)? Figes’s book is the only one I ever read (never finished it either, which might not be the worst thing).

  14. neutral says:
    @Anon

    US whites have a homicide rate of 2.5 so still above vast majority of European states. I wonder what accounts for that.

    I have seen some strange definitions of who counts as white in America. I have seen those mugshots of criminals that are clearly Mexican but they are labelled as white. I am guessing a lot of these white murderers are not real whites.

  15. DFH says:
    @melanf

    Sounds like he should get a job as Russia correspondent for the Guardian

    • Agree: Alfred
  16. DFH says:
    @neutral

    FBI crime statistics did (until I think a couple of years ago) disaggregate Hispanic and non-Hispanic whites, so it is possible to tell

  17. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    any recommendations on (English-available) general history books on the Russian Revolution(s)?

    I’m not sure what others will think of it, but for me a very helpful introductory book (240 pages) was Sheila Fitzpatrick, The Russian Revolution. It’s now in its 4th edition, you can read the 2nd edition online at the Internet Archive:

    https://archive.org/details/russianrevolutio00fitz_0

  18. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    I haven’t read very widely on this topic. But my favorite is a recent one, The Russian Revolution by Sean McMeekin (free epub available on Library Genesis).

    I plan to read History’s Greatest Heist sometime within this year.

  19. Sean says:

    Due to its propensity for drink, Finland

    Finland has a very masculine digit ratio. Denmarks is very feminine and 10% of men there need IVF to father children Don’t expect Hamlet-style indecision from Finns.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  20. @melanf

    Reminiscent of the former journalist Johann Hari, who liked to edit his opponents’ Wiki pages and to present other people’s work as interview quotes.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johann_Hari

    You have to say Figes’ alleged dishonesty throws his Russia work into doubt.

    Sean – yet Danish sperm is the tops with the turkey-baster brigade. I guess a lot of that is to do with Denmark’s laws. Before anonymity (and the right not to be chased for money) was abolished in the UK, a tall guy I know made money donating as an Oxford undergrad, and most of the lucky recipients would have hit the height+IQ jackpot.

  21. @neutral

    The details are all in the subscript to the graph. Read it. (Yes, 1875-1914 figures are for entire Russian Empire).

    I don’t know about regional specifics, but I suspect that homicide rates were similar or lower in Central Asia than in Russia proper, though higher in the Caucasus.

    However, it doesn’t really matter that much, because those regions were a much lower percentage of the all-imperial population than during the late USSR (by which time figures are for the RSFSR only).

  22. So what does Russian murder look like today? In the USA crime is *mostly* a story of young black males killing each other. Are the запой still the primary source of murder? I am guessing the answer is yes, as I have heard Moscow is the safest big european city. Guessing random people aren’t being slain in the streets at random, or inexplicably mowed down at country music concerts.

    • Replies: @melanf
    , @Dmitry
  23. Aslangeo says:
    @Stolen Valor Detective

    Figes wrote some pretty bitchy reviews of other authors on their amazon pages. Initially he claimed it was his wife! He ended up paying out slander damages to Robert Service and Rachel Polonsky.

    In his defence he is not parhologically Russophobic like some other British historians of Russia, admittedly that isn’t saying much

  24. Dmitry says:

    I’m not sure how comparable are data collection methodology across 1875-2018.

    Comparison of homicide is probably the most stable to measure crime across time. But today, state capacity is very different to 1875, so it’s possible rate of measurement was different now (higher now) than then. I have limited historical knowledge, but would assume state capacity in this area, was very limited in 1875, and almost absent among non-Russian nationalities, many domestic cases, etc…

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
  25. Dmitry says:
    @Boswald Bollocksworth

    Compared to 10 or 20 years ago, it is becoming safer undoubtedly, with no change in measurement capacity. Less alcoholics fighting in the street, less young people as total population, and more gentrification of personality, and much more state capacity. It’s less violence against wives (particularly a problem with certain nationalities), and state has higher capacity (particularly technological capacity) than ever before to capture criminals.

    Still a plenty of weird violence. E.g. A couple of months ago, a couple of women eating a pizza in the forest outside a city, are randomly shot in the head… (I’m sure if this kind of thing happens in Japan, it would be a national cause cause célèbre)

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
  26. DFH says:
    @Stolen Valor Detective

    According to the Nation article helpfully posted by Melanf, at least one of his books was so full of inaccuracies and possible fabrications and misrepresentations that his Russian publisher refused to publish it.

  27. Dmitry says:
    @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    I have not read this. But Karlin also recommended a few weeks ago…

    http://libgen.io/book/index.php?md5=B217C56BE0C099E2BDD49EEFB159267B

    I posted the diagrams from it a few weeks ago somewhere here. Reading the back, I imagined it could be very stupid. But Karlin wrote that this is not true (that it is very good).

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  28. Dmitry says:
    @Dmitry

    Lol the book is actually citing Karlin’s blog in the index, so this Karlin’s blog is even influential in Oxford University Press publications.

    • Replies: @DFH
  29. @neutral

    Maybe, but we also have a fine tradition of simple violent crimes by white folks in this country.

    Honestly, I’m related to some. Good old rural white criminals. A great-great grandfather on my mother’s side was a moonshiner. And my paternal grandmother’s father was hauled before a magistrate for selling booze to children.

    Of course, advocates for “Scotch-Irish” identity happily admit that their group had a propensity for “cattle reiving” (which became rustling in the American west) going back to the old days in north Britain.

    But I am sure that the crime rate in Kentucky in past decades, at least, was more to due with rednecks than blacks, Louisville notwithstanding.

  30. “US whites have a homicide rate of 2.5 so still above vast majority of European states. I wonder what accounts for that.”

    assuming you control for police and FBI numbers which sometimes count mestizos as europeans, it’s combination of

    1) irish, scots-irish, slavs. if you do a violent crime anaylsis by type of european, it’s probably the same as most other sociology measures. the germanics and scandinavians are less violent, then things get more violent as you move south and east, or get celtic.

    2) rural america. more sporadic violence and minor crime is possible out in the sticks than in modern police state cities which are swarming with cameras, officers, and forensics. europe is pretty dense, most of the US is open. the countryside is not a high violent crime place in general but it is a place where people can get shot and do a lot of small time crime.

    3) small arms. americans can kill each other more easily when they’re serious about killing each other. they rarely are. but when they are, they shoot each other. it’s harder for people to shoot each other in most of europe. with handguns in particular.

    • Replies: @DFH
    , @Anon
  31. DFH says:
    @Dmitry

    The full extent of the White Nationalist/Russian Intelligence infiltration of academia is truly terrifying

  32. DFH says:
    @prime noticer

    1) irish, scots-irish, slavs. if you do a violent crime anaylsis by type of european, it’s probably the same as most other sociology measures. the germanics and scandinavians are less violent, then things get more violent as you move south and east, or get celtic.

    Then why is it that the North-East is actually slightly less violent than other regions of England (even rural ones like the South-West) and Ireland has a lower homicide rate than most Scandinavian countries?

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/116419/hosb1011-pfatabs.xls

    rural america. more sporadic violence and minor crime is possible out in the sticks than in modern police state cities which are swarming with cameras, officers, and forensics.

    Cities are much more violent, even in homogenous countries, than rural areas though

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  33. “there’s a good chance that Russia will drop to America’s level this year and become absolutely safer in the next few years.”

    that seems possible considering:

    1) most murder is from guys between 20 and 40. so a lot of this tracks with the population aging and declining. as it is in almost all european nations and populations.

    violent crime in the US will probably continue to slowly increase over time as:

    2) ) the african population continues to grow, slowly. the ‘native’ african population is still growing at a few percent every year, and 100,000 new africans immigrate to the US every year from africa and the caribbean, starting in 1990 or so? another 1 million new africans per decade just from boats.

    3) the latin american population continues to grow, quickly. a mexican population roughly doubles the murder rate in an area over the european rate. central americans are worse, and the flow from across the border is shifting from mexicans to central americans. gangs from latin america are the acute problem, and the murder rate rises about 3 times when they show up in numbers in an area.

    4) the muslim population continues to grow, slowly but steadily. they are not that violent when they are few in numbers, but when they reach a critical mass, they begin to get more violent as they feel safer that they control certain areas. they will rise from 1% of the population to 2% of the population nationally in a decade or so. this is aside from the terror problem they present.

    so the main violent crime groups are not aging and declining. they’re growing.

    but these issues can all be mitigated to some degree if you are serious about it, and that is how the current US population ‘only’ has a murder rate of about 6. a real movement towards a police state, could lower them even further, such as in new york city, or more draconian, london. however, all the political trends are negative:

    5) republicans are slowly and steadily losing control of the country. they will permanently lose the presidency first, then governors will begin slipping away. what happens with mayors is instructive. republicans lost the mayor permanently to democrats decades ago in several cities, with mostly predictable results. this is what will happen nationwide after 2020.

    6) the democrat agenda to attack the police, and move things to a point where africans do not have to obey the law. started in earnest under obama, and will be resumed once trump is out of office. how aggressively this is pursued depends on how african the elected officals are and how jewish the intellectual leadership is. the more, the more.

    7) criminal justice reform, also known as letting africans out of jail. started under the democrats in the 60s, and finally ended by republicans in the 90s. the best way to reduce violent crime is to take criminals out of circulation and lock them up for a long time. the same as removing cancer cells from circulation removes cancer.

    trump is in the process of making a serious unforced error on this. as republicans lose more and more control, democrats will push more for leniency for criminals. US recidivism is 50% or higher, so crime will necessarily increase.

    trump was only able to reduce the violent crime rate by like 2% so far. criminal justice reform will easily wipe out that small gain.

    8) really strong democrat emphasis on not tracking muslim terror suspects or prosecuting terrorists correctly. because that’s not who we are. LOL. actually, democrats want the US destroyed, so muslim terrorists are very welcome under democrat rule. democrats fight tooth and nail to prevent even basic screening of immigrants or people on visas. very similar to western europe, where the leaders actually want more muslim terrorists. every terror attack gives the politicians more excuses to control the law abiding european population. and they have zero interest in actually stopping terrorism.

    9) longer term, steady erosion of small arms rights. handguns first, then more erosion of licensing, ammunition sales, and long gun ownership next. with a registry being the ultimate goal. democrats do not want people protecting themselves under any circumstances, and go to great lengths to try to stop that, or prosecute people who do. with a longer term goal of completely disarming the population, or rather, the european men who might try to stop them.

    republicans defense of this is one of their few successes. that will go away over time.

  34. “Then why is it that the North-East is actually slightly less violent than other regions of England (even rural ones like the South-West)”

    there are other variables too. it’s not just about which european group it is. that’s only one factor of several as anatoly has shown here. alcohol is such a big factor in russia. something i had never thought about. i did not realize the violent crime rate was so high recently, and how much it had declined under putin. from 30 down to 5. that is a huge reduction in murder. the difference between western europeans is like 1 or 2. lots of local variables could account for differences of 1 or 2 that are not due to which european group it is.

    isn’t north UK where the scot-scots live? not the scots-irish. and aren’t they smarter and commit less violent crime than the english? or are we talking about some other region in the UK. also, we just did a series on how people are leaving north england and moving to south england. some kind of surname study over 200 years. where it seemed the smart, high achievers of the north, were leaving over time, to move to the urban south. when people move in large numbers over time, this can have effects on historical local norms versus current ones. and i think that explains some of what’s happening when it comes to ethnic groups in europe versus the same group in the US.

    “Ireland has a lower homicide rate than most Scandinavian countries?”

    well, control for muslims first.

    but ireland having a lower violent crime rate is a very recent phenomenon. it was always higher in ireland, for hundreds of years. likewise in the US, a lot of the famous wild west criminals were irish, and decades later, organized criminals. one of the last major irish criminals, bulger, finally got killed last month, probably bringing to a close the irish crime era in the US. similarly, the FBI was required, to forcefully halt the italian crime era, which lasted for 100 years, and only ended in earnest the late 1980s. it took decades to eliminate them. millenials will never know a time when minor italian criminals ran all sorts of rackets in every city in the US, but every american born before 1970 or so will recall that time period in america. martin scorsese made his career primarily on documenting that era, which is completey gone now. italian criminals are a thing of the past in the US.

    for ireland, two things:

    1) it is possible, likely probable, that ireland exported lots of their lower human capital citizens to the US, during the great migration. this is similar to what happened with italy, and what mexico does today. people with lots going on didn’t usually leave a good thing going in europe, for the danger and uncertainly of the US. people with less going on, were more likey to take on the risk of trying their hand in the new country. this is also the process of how the scots-irish came to predominate in the american south.

    2) also, sometimes groups change over time. who saw the vikings being voluntarily conquered by middle east dirt farmers? but they are, hundreds of years later. look at the scots today. willing to fight total nonsense battles over transexuals now. when in the past they were fighting real wars against the english. complete population inversion stuff. from warriors into total pussys.

    my opinion is that james flynn is primarily preoccupied with this stuff – as an irish or part irish guy, he wants to understand why the irish were so much less intelligent that the english, more violent, and so forth. that’s his main, personal motivation with his research. and also, seeing himself or his group being subjugated by the english for so long, he finds common cause with africans in the US. another one of his pet subjects.

    in ireland, the irish have been getting smarter and less violent for a while. 50 years? and now the difference between the irish and the english is a lot smaller. it’s still there, but nothing like it was historically. it’s possible the irish in ireland are still becoming smarter and less violent even today, while we know for sure, the scandinavians in scandivania, are probably becoming less intelligent, based on lots of solid data.

    • Replies: @utu
  35. “Cities are much more violent, even in homogenous countries, than rural areas though”

    cities have more people and more violent crime. but in the US, it is rural states, rural counties, and rural areas, that tend to have higher rates of firearms deaths. those statistics are easily found. even in california, from a recent study: California gun deaths falling in cities, rising in rural areas

    again, it is specific. not higher violent crime in general. higher gun death rates. a city full of europeans versus a rural county full of europeans. the rural county probably has more firearm deaths per capita. also more overdose deaths. with a higher ownership of small arms, also higher rate of accidental gun deaths.

    this is easily understood by people who live in the US. urban and suburban europeans are less likely to shoot each other in a disagreement. they own less guns, and are less likely to shoot each other when they do own guns. rural europeans are more likely to shoot each other in a disagreement. they own more guns, and are less smart. they are also more likely to accidentally shoot themselves or people around them due to higher gun ownership and use.

    something they do in rural areas is blast off rounds into the sky to celebrate stuff – something you’ll never see urbanites do. they also just go in their backyards or in woods by their house and blast off rounds for target practice – most urbanites have never even touched a firearm.

  36. utu says:
    @prime noticer

    Ireland used to be pretty bad:

    A violent society’? Homicide rates in Ireland, 1831–1850

    https://www.jstor.org/stable/24338730?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents

    “Irishmen were both ‘violent and vindictive’, displaying ‘the most ferocious cruelty’ in their ‘acts of vengeance’”

    “‘a very great disregard’ for human life ‘manifested in the feelings and practice of the peasantry’”

  37. Thanks for leading me to appreciation of a genre of music unknown to me:

  38. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Dmitry

    Do you have a link for this forest shooting, please?

    • Replies: @Stevelancs
  39. Candy says:

    OT and this is just a harmless what if, but would the West be better off if the Nazis won? I mean that would offend people here since there are a lot of Slavs here, but maybe the larger portion of the Eastern European population getting genocided is still a preferable outcome to the present White genocide? And maybe all those Slav and Jews dead is an acceptable collateral damage against the inevitable triumph of Globohomo and white genocide in the West? Again this is just conjecture, but how is White genocide and full globohomo domination one hot better than a Nazi victory. And the Nazis losing actually predestined what is happening in the West now, with the defeat of the Nazis leading to the long term inevitable triumph of globohomo and the extinction of White people.

    • Replies: @Anon898
    , @Jon0815
    , @neutral
  40. @DFH

    The usual explanation for higher murder and suicide rates (despite lower crime rates in general) in rural areas in the UK is the greater availability of firearms.

    • Replies: @DFH
  41. @reiner Tor

    Makes is kind of an exaggeration. The software used is licensed from google (android) and most components are american designed (Qualcomm,Intel). Still Yandex has a lot of interesting projects going on in terms of software (Alice, self driving car) but the Yandex phone is just another entry level smartphone full of off the shelf components.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  42. @reiner Tor

    It’s a typical android phone, made in China, with some Yandex software installed on it. In other news, Ukrainian president details the cost of his policy of provoking Russians:

    This summer, Russia raised the tensions, regularly halting commercial ships destined for Ukrainian ports. Extensive delays can cost each ship as much as $10,000 to $12,000 per day on each leg. Russia is engaging in economic warfare, trying to slowly suffocate our export markets. Jobs have been lost, livelihoods destroyed, food is being wasted, and goods intended for Europe and the Middle East delayed. The words of Western condemnation this fall have only worsened Russia’s behavior.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/05/opinion/petro-poroshenko-putin-ukraine.html

    Of course, “blockade” only started after Ukrainians seized Russian fishing boat in Azov sea. The Ukraine continues to hold the boat and its captain hostage. Early attempts to reason with Ukrainian regime had no effect. They even promised to take more hostages!

    This behavior is emblematic of Ukrainian regime: trying to avenge its numerous humiliations by being needlessly and unreasonably confrontational. They pursue the same approach in negotiations over gas transit deal. As a result, it looks increasingly likely that no deal will be made by the end of 2019, and Ukrainian transit will not continue past that date, despite Europe’s best attempts to preserve it.

    Truly, there is no accounting for Ukrainian stupidity and watching them makes me feel proud to be Russian.

  43. DFH says:
    @Philip Owen

    Well, the overall rate of crimes against the person is lower, although I couldn’t find murder/suicide regional data. I am sceptical of a genetic argument for greater violence among Irish/borderers when the exact opposite is found in the actual modern data

  44. OT

    Meanwhile, the CFO of Huawei (she’s also the daughter of the founder of the company) was just arrested in Canada for allegedly violating the US Iran sanctions. Yes: a Chinese citizen was arrested in Canada for a crime which was not a crime in either China or Canada, but the Canadians have a law enforcement cooperation with the US, so they arrested her at the request of the Americans. It’s pretty unsafe for important Chinese personalities to travel to North America (or probably even to Europe).

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/05/canada-reportedly-arrests-huawei-cfo-facing-us-extradition-for-violating-iran-sanctions.html

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  45. @Swarthy Greek

    Okay. It was obviously a cheap crap product, I didn’t know the details, so thanks.

  46. OT

    Nicuck Farage cucked a big one. We had high hopes for him. But he just turned out to be yet another cuck.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46448299

  47. republic says:

    This article is dealing with murder, homicides, but what is the comparison with total deaths from all sources, including war? If the common figure of 20 million deaths from the WWII, that would be around 250,000 per year from 1919-90.

    So the wars would account to about 10 times the murder rate per year? On average?

    • Replies: @Anon
  48. @reiner Tor

    Though Hungary didn’t cuck and the Blue Checkmarks are very sad about it.

  49. Peter Frost says: • Website
    @DFH

    I am sceptical of a genetic argument for greater violence among Irish/borderers when the exact opposite is found in the actual modern data

    You need to adjust the data for age. Young males, between the ages of 15 and 25, account for most acts of personal violence. Conversely, men past the age of 35 are considerably less prone to violence. This age trend mirrors the age trend in testosterone levels. Although t levels are not the sole reason why men are more prone to violence, they are a good marker of this interaction between sex and age. In other words, the same selection pressure that makes t levels higher in young men also makes young men more violence-prone in other ways.

    If we compare human populations on a global basis, we find that this age trend is steeper in some than in others. If a population has much higher t levels in young men, it also has much lower t levels in older men. There seems to be a trade-off. The more violent a man is in his youth, the less violent he is at older ages. So if young Irish men are more violence-prone than other Western Europeans, we would expect the reverse to be true for older Irish men.

    What is the median age of Ireland? It’s 37. So your counterfactual is actually a factual.

    In the case of England, another confounding factor is that the indigenous population has a higher median age than the non-indigenous population. If you could remove the latter from the data, I believe that the borderlands of northern England would have a higher rate of personal violence, but there is no way of proving that with the current data.

    • Agree: Dmitry
    • Replies: @Dmitry
  50. Anon[939] • Disclaimer says:
    @prime noticer

    irish, scots-irish, slavs

    Slavs are a varied group. Slovenia has one of the lowest homicide rates in all of Europe, almost at Japan-tier levels. Poland’s homicide rate is below that of Denmark and South Korea. Czechia is quite low as well, almost half the rate of Germany. The most ‘violent’ West Slavic nation is Slovakia, which still has a homicide rate below that of Finland or Sweden. Meanwhile Russia and Ukraine are high-end outliers. So I am skeptical of your genetic argument. Most Slavic violence is concentrated among East Slavic nations like Ukraine or Russia, they are also among the most backward economically and the most corrupt. However, most Slavs in the US are from the West Slavic grouping, so that complicates your argument.

    As for the Irish, Ireland has a low homicide rate. I’m aware of the American stereotypes – infused by Anglo-Irish bad blood from centuries past – of the Irish as drunk, stupid and violent. Well, Ireland is very safe. Their homicide rate is lower than England and Wales’ equivalent. In fact, even a trouble zone like Northern Ireland is safer than England and Wales. It certainly isn’t a poor country and they do no worse than England on international exams. While many Irish who fled to the US were poor (and so disproportionately stupid, and presumably more violent) over the generations a reversion to the mean likely happened. Do we have any statistics on the Irish in the US which would show their homicide rate as compared to the overall white one?

    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate

    • Replies: @utu
    , @Matra
  51. anonymous[550] • Disclaimer says:

    Irish-Americans probably have a LOWER homicide rate in the United States than Anglo-Saxons.

    Migrating to major Northern cities they moved into the suburbs and became middle-class beginning in the fifties.

    The high rates of white criminality in the main-domestic violence, burglary, sex offenses, junkie-related epidemics like crystal meth-are in the US South or interior. Much of it is simply geographical. You find more criminals in poor rural trailer parks than in suburbs of major cities where Irish-Americans now cluster.

    Even the days of the Irish-American mafia embodied by Whitey Bulger are gone.

  52. anonymous[550] • Disclaimer says:

    EXAMINING SLAVS

    Polish-Americans who grow up in Flint or Detroit or Chicago are going to be rougher than those in Warsaw. Environment plays a factor and white ethnic groups constantly on the fringes of black violence are going to be affected from childhood especially if they lack the money to live in “bubble” areas.

    Slovenians who grew up in the bad part of Cleveland or Pittsburgh are going to have a different capacity for violence than those that grew up in Europe.

    The common denominator is exposure to blacks. Whites who are exposed to black crime will be different than those that have not.

    This is one reason why the white girls who most often are enamored of black thugs are white Anglo-Saxon rural women.

  53. utu says:
    @Anon

    Most Slavic violence is concentrated among East Slavic nations like Ukraine or Russia, they are also among the most backward economically and the most corrupt.

    And they had communism longer than anybody and also they had the greatest blood bath organized by the communist that was carried out by Russian and Ukrainians hands. They were all victims and executioners at the same time.

    • Replies: @AP
  54. @utu

    Excellent video. Now we know where SJWs come from. We should not just speak of CNN zombies, but Facebook zombies.

    • Replies: @utu
  55. neutral says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Being in NATO is by definition a cuck thing to do. The US is an anti white, pro mass immigration, anti Christian entity, Hungary is an ally to this.

  56. utu says:
    @Sin City Milla

    He is pretty good. I like him.

  57. Why is it necessary to explain now how the bolsjewist coup of November 1917 was a disaster for ordinary people, in fact until now ?
    Tsarist national income per head was reached again in the thirties.
    Had, without this coup, there ever been a WWII ?
    Do not think so, no indication whatsoever that Kerensky, or the last tsar, wanted war.
    Of course, the last tsar was an accomplice in causing WWI, but, as Chamberlain in 1938/1939, he did not want war.
    Stalin wanted war.
    As Farrage said in EP to Merkel that it would take decades to clear her mess, the USSR needed decades to clear the Stalin bolsjewist mess.
    Propaganda is easily made, but difficult to neutralize.

  58. @Anatoly Karlin

    What happened: the DEA wanted to catch the two guys. (Father and son.) They set a trap for them in Budapest, in cooperation with the Hungarian police. The guys fell into the trap. The Hungarian police arrested them. While they were in custody, awaiting extradition to the USA, Russia opened an investigation into the matter, and indicted the guys with the exact same crime. Russia then asked for their extradition, too. Hungary decided to extradite them to Russia instead of the US.

    The Hungarian justice ministry insists that it was a routine decision, that whenever they face extradition requests from two countries, they always decide based on citizenship. So Russia simply got them because they were Russian citizens.

    The Americans are still sore about it. Either they expected Hungary to give them preferential treatment (whatever the Hungarian ministry says, as far as I know, the justice minister has a discretionary right to decide in such cases, so it might be customary to extradite to the country of origin, but it’d have been easy to overwrite the custom or the recommendation of his subordinates), or the justice ministry might be lying. Possibly there’s not much of a precedent for this, so they just made up a “custom” based on nothing.

    It’s interesting in light of the Gruevski issue.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  59. You mentioned once that much of the crime in Russia was perpetrated by Caucasians, particularly Georgians, though presumably also Chechens and others. Of this criminal (specifically crime perpetrating Caucasian ethnic, rather than general Caucasian ethnic) population, what proportion was born in the Caucasus, rather than elsewhere, e.g. in Moscow and St Petersburg?

    Also, how does the Russian proportional per capita murder rate increase (whether from 1917, or say, using the 20th century) versus the mid to late 19th century, compare to that of the US? In both cases, lead may lurk, as alcoholism is indicative of lack of impulse control. Were the pathologies of 1917 perhaps prepared around 1894? Again, a comparison to the US increase in alcoholism would be informative.

  60. Anon898 says:
    @Candy

    Good question–and one that should be debated in a free society, wherever that is.

    One person who clearly thought so was America’s General Patton. In his diaries and letters to his wife during WWII he maintained that the US was fighting on the wrong side, that we should have been allied with Hitler against communism, and that Germans were ‘the last decent people in Europe’.

    John F. Kennedy is another. A prescient entry from his diary in 1949: “You can easily understand how that within a few years Hitler will emerge from the hatred that surrounds him now as one of the most significant figures who ever lived”.

    Given today’s open, unapologetic call for hatred and genocide against whites, it’s very tempting to speculate. I personally tend to believe that if a strong, passionate and articulate figure appeared on the scene today they would have plenty of support for an international insurrection against Jewish globalism.

  61. AP says:
    @utu

    Ukrainians and to a lesser extent Russians were underrepresented among the bloodbath perpetrators of the 1920s and 1930s.

    But time spent under Soviets is indeed correlated with crime and violence. Ukrainian crime rate shrinks when crossing the 1939 border. Armed robbery rate:

  62. @anonymous coward

    He’s a troll, most likely living in a non communist country. Best not to inflate his sense of worth with any attempt at rational discussion.

    The silly wannabe commies on this forum never practice what they preach, and would be the first ones under the fence if they found themselves living in a communist country.

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
  63. @utu

    “A violent society’? Homicide rates in Ireland, 1831–1850″

    Well, mass starvation, combined with cruel and incompetent foreign rule might have this effect on most places.

    • Replies: @S
  64. Anon[140] • Disclaimer says:

    US cities over 300,000 population in the top 50 in the world ranked by murders per 100,000:

    13. St. Louis 65.83
    21. Baltimore 55.48
    32. San Juan PR 48.70
    41. New Orleans 40.10
    42. Detroit 39.69

    (2017 data from Wikipedia)

    • Replies: @MikeatMikedotMike
  65. I’m no expert on Russia, but how reliable are population numbers from the 1800′s? Russia is a massive expanse; it seems impossible, even into the mid 20th century, to have accurately tallied the entire population, let alone who was killing who.

    This is not an attempt to imply Russia is more violent than the data shows, BTW. I just question the plausibility of keeping accurate records of both people and deaths in large countries before the mass production of the ICE.

    • Agree: Futurethirdworlder
  66. Pericles says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    When America asked Hungary to extradite two Russian arms dealers, they got sent to Russia instead. Hungary and the US are “NATO allies”

    Oh these BBC deep thinkers. Would the US extradite Soros to Hungary?

  67. @Anon

    Now control for blacks and see where those cities fall on the list.

    • Replies: @anonymous
    , @Anon
  68. Anon[129] • Disclaimer says:
    @republic

    And your point is?

    • Replies: @republic
  69. anonymous[550] • Disclaimer says:
    @MikeatMikedotMike

    Point taken but the problem is that virtually every urban center has an inner-city and when it gets to the point where the DC mayor is smoking crack you cannot remove them from the vector.

  70. Matra says:
    @Anon

    As for the Irish, Ireland has a low homicide rate.

    Republic of Ireland, deadliest place to live in British Isles

    The above article is mostly about gun violence but at the bottom they have stats for overall homicides in Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and England/Wales.

    Also, in Scotland the Catholic population (ie. descendants of Irish settlers) have aways had much higher rates of violent criminality than the Protestant Scots.

  71. S says:
    @melanf

    In the 18th century was specifically permitted individuals to purchase field guns at military factories.

    Hehe. :-)

    Believe it or not, thru the very early 1960′s it was possible in the United States for the private individual to legally purchase light mortars. Saw a circa 1960 Newsweek article with a photo of a husband and wife firing off theirs out in the desert.

    According to the article, if I recall correctly, it was about that same time that like the WWI era Thompson machine gun of a few decades earlier, they thought better of the idea, and either banned outright or made very difficult/expensive the private ownership of such a weapon.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Joe Stalin
  72. How about showing the number of Russians killed by the Zionists from 1917 until about 1960, murder is murder via starving or shooting or torture!

    • Replies: @Che Guava
  73. wayfarer says:

    BREAKING: Israeli fifth-column attempting to get “Anti-Israel Boycott” bill passed.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Cardin

    https://budget.house.gov/budgets/fy-2019-budget/

  74. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    Juri Lina UNDER THE SIGN of the SCORPION will tell you things you never knew about the Russian Revolution.

  75. @anonymous

    The term “Anglo-Saxon” gets overused.

    There are rather few regions of the country that ACTUALLY have rural Anglo-Saxon whites. These regions include the Tidewater of Virginia and the Carolinas; northern New England; Utah and Mormon areas of the West; and some parts of the Midwest settled by New Englanders. But the latter region has a strong intermixing of other European folk groups.

    The vast majority of rural Americans are largely some mixture of “Scotch-Irish”/Protestant north British or German.

    Frankly, it would be far more correct to use the term, “white British-American” in reference to the standard Kentucky woman who goes with a black thug.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  76. Che Guava says:
    @DESERT FOX

    That part of the murder rate dramatically dropped from the late 1930s to the end of the USSR, with a spike from Jewish political commissars shooting Russian and other Sov. soldiers in the back from 1941 to 1945.

    • Replies: @DESERT FOX
  77. S says:
    @MikeatMikedotMike

    “A violent society’? Homicide rates in Ireland, 1831–1850″

    Well, mass starvation, combined with cruel and incompetent foreign rule might have this effect on most places.

    A Famine era Spectator of London article from 1847 entitled ‘Extermination and Vengeance’ delved a bit into some of what you are describing.

    During the Famine years caused by the potato blight, circa 1845 – 1850, Ireland was losing about 250 thousand yearly due to starvation and associated disease.

    They were losing about the same number yearly during those same years due to their not coincidental enmasse predation as wage slaves (ie so called ‘cheap labor’) via their exportation as ‘immigrants’ to far flung places of the British Empire and to the United States, most never to see Ireland again.

    As the article linked below described it, the Irish were ‘helped’ first by being evicted off their own land by British landlords, and then apparently in quite great numbers, having their way paid by those same landlords to ‘disappear’ as it were to the United States.

    The one-two punch of first the Famine, and then this ‘help’ offered of their enmasse predation as wage slaves, resulting in a loss of about 500,000 yearly to their population during this time, was having the effect of utterly destroying the Irish as a people.

    And while no doubt entirely open to some sort of traditional in situ relief from the Famine offered from whatever source, the Irish decidedly did not see their enmasse predation as so called ‘cheap labor’ as legitimate help, but rather saw it as a genocidal act of hostility towards them, which they called ‘extermination’.

    They saw it not as a ‘helping hand’, but rather as a hand being placed around their throat and squeezed hard.

    According to the article, members of the British aristocracy in Ireland were being shot (‘vengeance’) for sponsoring the mass exodus of Irish from Ireland (‘extermination’) during the Famine.

    That’s something I think should have been included in films such as The Gangs of New York to round out the picture of what exactly was going on during that time.

    But then, that most certainly doesn’t fit ‘the narrative’ either.

    http://archive.spectator.co.uk/article/20th-november-1847/12/extermination-and-vengeance

    • Agree: MikeatMikedotMike
  78. @Che Guava

    I am aware of that , however Stalin had the Bolsheviks ie communists aka Zionists driving the murderous criminal kabal that murdered tens of millions in Russia and that is what Zionists do they wreck and destroy and murder for the messiah satan and the Zionist NWO.

    This is what the Zionists are doing here in America as in their attack on the WTC on 911.

    • Replies: @Che Guava
  79. Che Guava says:
    @Stolen Valor Detective

    I have read much (thousands of pages), and Service’s surname makes me think he must be a moron, but his History of Modern Russia seems generally alright. Andrej may disagree, and if so, an explanation of why would be appreciated.

    I find it strange that both the Trotskyite ‘Conquest’ and ‘Service’ have what appear to be fake surnames.

    The latter’s resembles that of Reg. Dwight’s laughably named ‘husband’ ‘Furnish’, ‘Oh, David, let me furnish your rectum’, or perhaps, ‘Oh David, furnish my rectum. ‘

    History of the CPSU, the Stalinist document, also worth reading, I regret having had to dump my hard-cover copy with photos, as propaganda, but it is entertaining on that level.

  80. steppe says:

    This comparative exercise shows us that in homicide rates as in almost everything else, the Soviet period constituted an unmitigated disaster for Russia.

    Yet only a bare mention of the true disaster – the 1990s. Perestroika killed more Russians in and outside Russia than anything else, and I would argue to add the word “ever” into that sentence.

    Your hatred for the USSR should not prevent you from seeing today’s enemies – ‘liberals’ and ‘globalists’. It’s easy to beat up a corpse. Try beating up the dystopian nightmarish mental gymnastic olympiad that is Eltsin Centre and its thralls.

    If you can’t do it, not matter, the data speaks for itself.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  81. Che Guava says:
    @DESERT FOX

    I can see your meaning, but it wasn’t until Stalin tried to bring them to heel, and succeeded to some extent, of course for many years later, that most decided to be Zionists, ‘cos they weren’t allowed to be the big bully class of Bolshesivm any more.

    Stalin was a big drinker, so may have died a natural death, he wasn’t young at the time, but I believe the doctors’ plot is very credible.

    Along with a good account of that, somebody should write an account of how the poisonous mushrooms rose again within the party, until their members managed the rape (economic and sexual enslavement of women) of the USSR.

  82. @steppe

    I have covered that extensively in previous posts. To the contrary, very few people write about late Soviet murder rates – and almost none about murder rates before Khrushchev. I am filling a gap.

    Second, who created the 1990s? That’s right – the Soviet nomenklatura that sold off their “own” country.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    , @steppe
  83. Gerard2 says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    For the FIFA case, practically all the heads of football in the South American countries were arrested…apart for…..”surprise”… those of the Colombian and Mexican FA’s. Those two countries ,whilst being fantastically violent and corrupt, were somehow “exemplary” in their football business dealings and extremely close and long-term allies of the US. Venezuelan guy also implicated even though you would assume he never did anything involved or anywhere near US territory or business

    Seeing as the whole point of extradition hearings is to determine if these are politically motivated charges or the threat of violence against them, then it is messed-up beyond belief that ANY of these people get extradited to the US , as the charges are often blatantly politically motivated

    Viktor Bout extraditions was about as illegal and obvious blackmail as it gets

    • Replies: @Che Guava
  84. Bottom line: White Americans have homicide rates completely in line with longstanding cis-Hajnalian groups like the English and Welsh, the cis-Hajnalian transformation of formerly trans-Hajnalian groups like the Finns and Italians is now complete, the transformation of Russians may be underway, and any transformation of blacks, including those in England, is genetically impossible without genetech or continued growth of a new race in places like England and America, nominally black but actually mulatto.

    For Hajnalphobes: feel free to substitute ‘more outbred’ and ‘less outbred’ for ‘cis’ and ‘trans’.

    • Replies: @anonymous coward
    , @ANON
  85. @reiner Tor

    One more point: they both now seem to be in Russian custody. So either Putin is taking care of appearances (so that Orbán doesn’t end up with egg on his face), or what they did is really considered a crime in Russia, too, and they will be punished for it. However, the US won’t be able to interrogate them (and offer them preferential treatment or a plea agreement in exchange for telling Russian state secrets, should they know anything like that).

    • Replies: @Anarcho-Supremacist
  86. @Dmitry

    I was thinking along similar lines. I’m assuming that in 1800′s Russia (or any country for that matter) there undoubtedly was a lot more activity of all kinds which just fell below the notice of the State. I’m sure folks settled lots of disagreements without ever involving the State in any form.

    It would be interesting to hear more on how this might be accounted for, but I would bet that as with much historical data it’s pretty much unknowable.

    Interesting article overall though. No great surprise that Communism and it’s aftermath were a disaster for the Russian people. Hopefully they can continue to get back on even footing.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  87. @Sean

    What is a digit ratio?

    Also, could we please see evidence of the Danes’ higher rate of male fertility problems relative to Finland? Thanks -

    • Replies: @Thea
  88. Well this definitely debunks the police states are safer myth. No offense “Law and Order” neocons.

  89. “In the United States, crime rose from the 1960s due to adverse economic and social changes, as well as liberals hamstringing the criminal justice system.”

    Ya it was black nationalism that made the 1964-92 crime bubble.

  90. republic says:
    @Anon

    Political murders are about 10 times the amount of ordinary non political murders.

    Great book to read is the Black book of communism, however I understand that the author of this article does not agree with that book’s total figure of 20 million., he says it is much,much lower.

  91. “Although Russia will soon become less violent than the United States, these figures are still nothing to write home about, because of America’s specific demographic composition.”

    Come on Karlin you know its not that simple. Crime is the US is very concentrated in poor black liberation zones and outside those zones its incredibly a few orders of magnitude lower. If Russia’s rate is the same everywhere(fuck that may be something you don’t have the ball to touch, cough cough article 282 cough cough) then its a few times less safe to be anywhere in Russia on average then to be in most parts of the US. Honestly homicide is overused as a measure of “safety”. Homicides are lower now in the US then in 1962 but most crimes that actually effect people(robberies, burglaries, you name it) are way up from the 1962ish low.

    • Replies: @melanf
  92. @reiner Tor

    “and offer them preferential treatment or a plea agreement in exchange for telling Russian state secrets, should they know anything like that”

    I doubt that but I would not be surprised if they tried to use them in the dumb ass “Russia probe”. Of course now they probably will try and accuse Orban of being “Putin’s puppets”. Fuck maybe this is 7d chess(or whatever its at now) and Trump secretly asked Orban to extradite them to Russia because it may cause him trouble? I doubt that is the case for many obvious reasons but its a thought.

  93. gwynedd1 says:
    @anonymous coward

    I am sure some of them realize they were just making worse mistakes than the West.

  94. melanf says:
    @Anarcho-Supremacist

    Come on Karlin you know its not that simple. Crime is the US is very concentrated in poor black liberation zones and outside those zones its incredibly a few orders of magnitude lower.

    Murders in Russia are concentrated in the marginal “social group” of alcoholics. A typical Russian murder – one alcoholic stabbed another out of a quarrel-how to divide a bottle of vodka. Murder outside “social group” of alcoholics is incredibly a few orders of magnitude lower.

    If we assume that in some Russian and American cities have the same level of murders (per 100 000 population), the Russian city will be safer for tourists.

  95. @utu

    Those Puritans were a violent lot!

  96. Dmitry says:
    @Peter Frost

    Yes, in case of street (or even inside building) life in cities, higher ratio of old people are a very civilizing influence which can occur outside of their economic level.

    I.e. You can even just live in an apartment inside a building with more old people, and it will usually have some benefits independent of economic level of the area. And the same effect is no doubt true for cities and countries.

  97. Dmitry says:
    @Barbarossa

    Even in the 1950s, there were certain groups which the state has very little penetration into. So certainly the rate of reporting (as result of changes in state capacity) will be a confounding variable for accuracy of this red line.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
  98. Dmitry says:
    @Stevelancs

    Thanks – yes it’s only a locally reported story.

    Both girls died. And the killer is not found yet so it’s a local scandal for the police, with mothers complaining in local media this week.

    This area where it happened has had a lot of weird murders over the years.

  99. @melanf

    “Murders in Russia are concentrated in the marginal “social group” of alcoholics. A typical Russian murder – one alcoholic stabbed another out of a quarrel-how to divide a bottle of vodka. Murder outside “social group” of alcoholics is incredibly a few orders of magnitude lower.”

    Ya thats why homicides in and off themselves are not the best indicators of “safety”. Does not tell you if you are going to get mugged or robbed necessarily.

    “If we assume that in some Russian and American cities have the same level of murders (per 100 000 population), the Russian city will be safer for tourists.”

    Again it depends on the circumstance. The example on paper you are providing makes it sound like they are the exact same. Within cities in the US some parts of the city are way more dangerous then others so using per capita rates with in the municipal corporate boundaries tells us as much as using national per capita rates. New Orleans is has one of the highest homicide rates but practically none of it effects tourists(and I bet ever case were a “tourist” was killed was a gang member from another city on a mission to kill a rival gang member). If a Russian city has the same crime rate in every part of town compared to the US city pattern then in most cases the tourist would be safer in the US city. Of course that is a simplification in both cases.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @Philip Owen
  100. Yevardian says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Semi OT, does anyone know of site like scihub for accessing online newspaper archives?

    I’m specifically referring to the eXile and Haaretz.

    • Replies: @DFH
  101. Dmitry says:
    @melanf

    Which American cities did you think are dangerous as a tourist?

    In Washington DC, I felt it was very safe (yet it has a high murder rate, which I was surprised to learn).

    The city which superficially (as a tourist) feels dangerous, is San Francisco, which has some very strange areas.

    In Los Angeles? I didn’t visit anywhere infamous like Compton. Hollywood feel safe to me, just in a shabby way. And a lot of homeless people, especially in Santa Monica (but Santa Monica still does not seem dangerous).

    • Replies: @melanf
    , @Philip Owen
    , @Twinkie
  102. AP says:
    @S

    Actually it is legal for American indivuals to buy mortars, cannons and even fully functioning tanks:

    https://www.dailydot.com/unclick/operational-tank-for-sale-armslist/

    It just requires a lot of paperwork and involves a lot of taxes.

    • Replies: @S
  103. Dmitry says:
    @Anarcho-Supremacist

    Americans are also very based in the car, so they can avoid trouble. While as a tourist, you are often walking (by foot).

    I remember in Los Angeles, I wanted to walk from Farmer’s Market (which was a kind of Jewish area of Los Angeles), to the Japanese area of Los Angeles.

    On the journey (walking), I start in this area with rich Jewish people living in mansions. And then suddenly walking in an area with many black, Tupac appearing guys everywhere.

    I have no idea if that was actually dangerous or not though. But you don’t see any of the rich Americans walking.

    • Replies: @Anarcho-Supremacist
    , @utu
  104. Anon[140] • Disclaimer says:
    @MikeatMikedotMike

    “Now control for blacks…” Unfortunately, the restrictions that many Red states are trying to place on legal abortions will only make the crime rate worse.

    • Replies: @MikeatMikedotMike
  105. @S

    Americans can purchase Black powder 3 inch bore cannon barrels and have them delivered via Federal Express to their homes; factory visit not required. Free copy of carriage plans included.

    Is better than Russia in 18th century.

    http://greystarcannontech.homestead.com/star.html

    Between the National Firearms Act of 1934 and Gun Control Act of 1968, cannons like the 20mm Lahti anti-tank cannon were considered simply ordinary firearms and could be purchased by mail for delivery to your door. Just like the semi-auto German G-3s and M-1 Carbines could be purchased.

    • Replies: @S
  106. This is the bozo who denies that the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989 was an utter disaster for the common people of the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, a steep upsurge in mortality and a decline in life expectancy that were the biggest ever recorded anywhere in peacetime and in the absence of physical catastrophes, such as such as wars, plague, or famine.

    The gall. The unmitigated gall.

    I don’t believe anything he says no matter how many graphs he trots out.

    • Replies: @anonymous
    , @AP
  107. anonymous[269] • Disclaimer says:

    Tourists stay for a single week in hotels/districts that are carefully patrolled by police who don’t want a source of income to be robbed. That is why Orlando is safer than Miami.

    Police salaries are paid for by taxes and big business and their orders are to protect the sources of revenue. So for example in Florida Japanese tourists to Disney will get more protection than rednecks whose Miami neighborhood became a Latin American slum.

    In order to appreciate crime one has to be a working middle class white whose neighborhood is lower-income enough to be within proximity of a barrio or ghetto. It is not only blacks or Hispanics, either. Poor whites are often out of their minds on meth or Opiate pills.

    The worst-case scenario are whites in Rustbelt cities who failed to sell their property when it was worth anything and simply cannot afford to leave neighborhoods that have disintegrated into ghettos. Eventually, for them, the situation becomes like Haiti was for the French.

    For their kids it is worst because they have to attend public schools.

  108. anonymous[269] • Disclaimer says:

    Dangerous for a tourist?

    Visit San Fernando valley. It can be dangerous. Detroit, needless to say. San Francisco’s problem are homeless and these are mostly penniless hippies or junkies, not Hispanic or black gangs.

    If the average middle-class European had to live in the US on a budget, they would notice crime immediately.

    The areas that tourists visit are patrolled by police whose orders are to protect tourist centers that bring in the revenue.

    But a great deal of street crime in the US is spontaneous. You do not have to be walking out in the middle of the night like Charles Bronson in Death Wish with dollar bills hanging out of your pockets.

    Just ride the public bus. Eventually, and probably sooner, there will be some sort of outburst. Send your kids to public school in any major city, which few whites do nowadays.

    Live in Milwaukee or Ferguson or any other US city between the desirable places on the coasts waiting for the next riot to begin, wondering if it will burn down your business or you will end up like the Koreans on the rooftops in Los Angeles.

    • Replies: @AP
  109. anonymous[269] • Disclaimer says:
    @obwandiyag

    The period of real despair was in the nineties after the Fall of the Iron Curtain and before the rise of Russian oligarchies in the 2000′s.

    Of course there was a great deal of alcoholism and ex-KGB rushing to become mob soldiers and Russian women selling their bodies in Dubai because the economy had collapsed at that time.

    But my guess is that the average 26 year old Russian born in 1992 does not even remember this period much less kill himself with vodka over it.

    • Replies: @Bill Jones
  110. @Anon

    Abortion will never be restricted in the US (until the collapse happens), so the legislators in those red states are simply trying to motivate their base.

    But if somehow abortion restriction was implemented, then it’s not too much of a stretch to imagine single parent welfare incentives being totally eliminated to counter the effect you point out.

    If that’s not enough to deter irresponsible sexual activity, there’s always repatriation.

    • Replies: @Anon
  111. anonymous[269] • Disclaimer says:

    Those that reproduce randomly and need welfare don’t think that far ahead.

    With low IQ white proles they usually do this ONCE when they are very young adults-nineteen or twenty. They never repeat the process because the courts chase the young white cad for child support and the young woman has to do a variety of low-paying jobs.

    But with other races, this pattern begins when they are teenagers because non-white females reach peak fertility a few years before legal adulthood.

    Try inculcating an inner-city 15 year old black girl with this sort of no abortion and no welfare consequential thinking. Good luck there.

    Lawmakers, even in Red States, know that Roe vs Wade (Though this was a poor adult white woman in her twenties) lowered the crime rate in the nineties. This is common knowledge.

    It is the same reason why the child support laws that locked up “deadbeat Dads” were aimed at the white prole and not towards non-white males who will never hold a job and father six children.

  112. melanf says:
    @Dmitry

    Which American cities did you think are dangerous as a tourist?

    I’m not saying American cities are dangerous. I pointed out that with the same level of murder, the American city will be more dangerous than the Russian for stranger, because in America a significant proportion of murders – accidental murders during the robbery. In Russia, the proportion of such murders is much smaller: in Russia, in most cases, one alcoholic kills another with a kitchen knife/bottle/hammer/…

    • Replies: @anonymous
    , @Dmitry
  113. AP says:
    @obwandiyag

    This is the bozo who denies that the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989 was an utter disaster for the common people of the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe

    It was a disaster for about 12 years, but Russia now is much better off than it ever was under the Communists and better off than it would have been had they stayed in power.

    Karlin doesn’t deny that the 90s were very bad. The 90s were what happened when the Soviet elite got to run wild.

  114. anonymous[269] • Disclaimer says:
    @melanf

    RUSSIAN HOMICIDES IN THE US

    Most Russians who are victims of crime in the US are members of the Russian mafia in Brooklyn or something and their body is never found.

    Slavs who move to cities like Chicago enter ethnic neighborhoods that large and fairly well-entrenched. The local police will likely be members of the same ethnic community, the mayor will belong to the community, there is high-trust between them and so on.

    The cities where violence towards whites is most frequent don’t have a Hollywood or Disneyland so tourists never visit there anyhow.

  115. S says:
    @AP

    Actually it is legal for American indivuals to buy mortars, cannons and even fully functioning tanks:

    ..It just requires a lot of paperwork and involves a lot of taxes.

    Very interesting.

    That fits what I’ve heard about these things.

    I can only imagine that’s lots and lots of taxes and lots and lots of paperwork, particularly for the fully functioning tank. ;-)

  116. AP says:
    @anonymous

    Silly. Most whites in America are segregated from high crime areas. Homicide rates are slightly higher for them than for Europeans but it’s still extremely rare to get murdered and both Europeans and most Americans of European descent don’t even know anyone who has been murdered; OTOH property crime in the USA (where Euro Americans live) is much lower than in Europe and this is a much more noticeable difference.

    • Replies: @ANON
  117. S says:
    @Joe Stalin

    Thanks for the info.

    Cool website. :-)

  118. DFH says:
    @Yevardian

    Try running noscript for the Exile

  119. sean42 says:

    Maybe it’s a good news that instead of chopping of each others heads, young men are chopping off their penises instead and calling themselves women?

  120. ANON[269] • Disclaimer says:
    @AP

    That is true of middle-class whites who live in suburbs or in rural areas but not of working middle class whites who live in US cities.

    Why are so many whites leaving California?

    Property crime and other petty offenses are higher in Europe because whites can still exist in European inner-cities.

    If Euro-Americans could not leave major cities that are economically redundant anyhow or commute 40 miles a day then crime would be much higher.

    There is only a certain amount of geographic space to allow Euro-Americans to flee to.

    • Replies: @AP
  121. @Jack Highlands

    For Hajnalphobes: feel free to substitute ‘more outbred’ and ‘less outbred’ for ‘cis’ and ‘trans’.

    Finland and Russia are very outbred and also very violent.

    Violence correlates with alcohol, not with your moronic ‘Hajnal’ fantasy.

    • Replies: @Toronto Russian
  122. ANON[269] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack Highlands

    Black Americans have always been Mulatto. For all practical purposes, they could be broken down as being 75% West African and 25% British.

    Finns apparently originated in Hungary in the dawn of time.

    I’ve never been to Finland but anyone from the Northern Midwest can differentiate between them and other Scandinavians. They are more Slavic in appearance.

    • Replies: @Kinez
  123. Kinez says:
    @ANON

    Slavs are people that speak a Slavic language, not a genetically homogenous group. There’s no typical ‘Slavic look’.

    • Replies: @Toronto Russian
  124. melanf says:

    I’ve never been to Finland but anyone from the Northern Midwest can differentiate between them and other Scandinavians. They are more Slavic in appearance.

    It’s not Finns “have Slavic look” is the Northern Russians (who are genetically differ from all other Slavs) in appearance similar to Scandinavians and Finns. “Normal” Slavs are not like Finns

    If you really can differentiate between Slavs, Finn and other Scandinavians-determine who in the pictures Russian, Finn, or German-speaking Scandinavians without using a Google

  125. @Dmitry

    Ya that is a good point. Places like LA and Houston have good and bad neighborhoods next to each other. People often drive short distances in bad places all the time and don’t even know it.

  126. @melanf

    Can we replay would fuck all of the above?

    • Replies: @melanf
    , @Yevardian
  127. melanf says:
    @Anarcho-Supremacist

    would fuck all of the above?

    Is it necessary to divide them into Finns, Russians and Scandinavians?

    • Replies: @Anarcho-Supremacist
  128. neutral says:
    @melanf

    These kind of trick images are similar to those that try to confuse people who is a male or female, obviously there are going to be some that make it very hard to spot their gender. That however does not make an argument that no differences exist, it only proves that fringe boundary conditions exist.

    It also needs mentioning that even the Third Reich said that there were some Aryans in Russia, so just because one of those women is from Russia does not mean she is full Slavic.

    • Replies: @melanf
  129. Jon0815 says:
    @Candy

    OT and this is just a harmless what if, but would the West be better off if the Nazis won? I mean that would offend people here since there are a lot of Slavs here, but maybe the larger portion of the Eastern European population getting genocided is still a preferable outcome to the present White genocide.

    Western Europe and possibly the UK would be demographically better off, but (unless you time-travel back to 1938 and give the Nazis all they need to mass-produce a-bombs and ICBMs by 1945), the Nazis have no chance of conquering the USA, which by defining itself against Nazism (much as it defined itself against Communism during the Cold War) will become even more anti-white than it is in reality.

  130. neutral says:
    @Candy

    Do you think they are going to stop with Western Europe? They have already started in Eastern Europe and from I have seen the Eastern Europeans don’t seem too concerned about their impending demise either.

  131. Yevardian says:
    @Anarcho-Supremacist

    Where did that weirdo GreasyWilliam go?

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
  132. @Yevardian

    Where did that weirdo GreasyWilliam go?

    Didn’t he get in trouble with the IRS?

  133. melanf says:
    @neutral

    These kind of trick images are similar to those that try to confuse people who is a male or female, obviously there are going to be some that make it very hard to spot their gender. That however does not make an argument that no differences exist, it only proves that fringe boundary conditions exist.

    In this case, it’s just stupid demagoguery. The above photos are quite typical faces ( not rare exceptions). But here’s random pictures: Russian and Norwegian cosplay of the Vikings. Find where Russian and where Norwegians

  134. melanf says:

    It also needs mentioning that even the Third Reich said that there were some Aryans in Russia, so just because one of those women is from Russia does not mean she is full Slavic.

    You have an interesting scientific authorities. Here is a group photo:
    Answer honestly: according to anthropological features you can tell who they are – the Germans, the Slavs, the Finns?

    • Replies: @Yevardian
  135. @melanf

    No I would smash them all at the same time.

  136. utu says:
    @Dmitry

    Did you really walk it? It is 8 miles from Fairfax to Little Tokyo.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  137. neutral says:

    That Russia soccer shirt is a subtle clue. You are probably not going to believe me when I say that I could tell right away that most of those look like they would have fought for the Red Army and not the SS in the past.

    • Replies: @melanf
  138. @Dmitry

    This is why I have very little absolute faith in statistics in general. Far from being the absolute that many think them to be; as the saying goes “Garbage in, garbage out.”

    Even if the inputs are not consciously manipulated they are subject to so many variables.

    Statistics at best can give a fascinating glimpse, but cannot “prove” much at all.

    It’s always amusing when folks triumphantly trot out some stat as though it wins a debate all by itself.

    • Replies: @utu
  139. @anonymous

    Read The Nation’s “The Harvard boys do Russia”

    The are now doing the U.S.

  140. melanf says:
    @neutral

    You are probably not going to believe me when I say that I could tell right away that most of those look like they would have fought for the Red Army and not the SS in the past.

    Great, then sort (without the help of Google) the girls above, as well as the Vikings. And at the same time – sort the photos below: where the contingent for the SS, and where the contingent for the red army?

  141. Che Guava says:
    @Gerard2

    That is interesting.

    I dislike soccer for the same reason I dislike basketall, cheating and fouls (and ‘dindu that’ pretence tactics) are standard tactics at the top level.

    It is sometimes intertesting to watch, but in general, given the chance, I will only watch matches with North Korea or Japan (the latter a crowd of actors).

    At the last WC, referee of the Croatia vs. ‘France’ (pan-Africa) match was so unfair, I am glad not to have watched it live.

    Croatia should have won. Not that I am a partisan for Croatia, but they were better. Worst, those Femen idiots invaded the field to tilt the balance.

    It has become a very ugly sport, as has basketball in the USA, invented by a Protestant minister to promote fair play, now a field for tactical fouls and black players jumping to hang from the hoops like apes in a tree.

    • Replies: @utu
  142. Thea says:
    @RadicalCenter

    https://heartiste.wordpress.com/2018/12/06/finger-length-ratio-and-female-infidelity/

    Index to ring finger length indicates in-utero exposure to testosterone & estrogen. It has been linked to some behaviors but I’d not heard fertility was related to this before.

  143. utu says:
    @Che Guava

    It was money not the apes that spoiled soccer, basketball and other sports. One high school football coach told his students that if you are not ready to cheat you do not have fighting spirit, you do not want to win. Winning is everything after all and not only in the US of A but that’s where this spirit originated.

  144. utu says:
    @Barbarossa

    This is why I have very little absolute faith in statistics in general. Far from being the absolute that many think them to be; as the saying goes “Garbage in, garbage out.”

    Tell it to Karlin.

  145. Anon[248] • Disclaimer says:
    @MikeatMikedotMike

    “Abortion will never be restricted in the US (until the collapse happens), so the legislators in those red states are simply trying to motivate their base.” Various Red states have already passed abortion restrictions and some have been upheld by the US Supreme Court. Justice Kennedy was a swing vote on abortion. Justice Kavanaugh is more likely to be a reliable vote for the anti-abortion wing of the court. Read about Mississippi’s latest anti-abortion statute here: http://www.vox.com/2018/3/22/17143454/trump-ohio-heartbeat-bill-abortion-ban-mississippi

  146. @DFH

    “I am sceptical of a genetic argument for greater violence among Irish/borderers when the exact opposite is found in the actual modern data”

    In Scotland the per capita murder rate is twice that of England and Wales, despite the relative absence of minorities (who account for a quarter of the E&W figures).

    • Replies: @Bliss
  147. AP says:
    @ANON

    That is true of middle-class whites who live in suburbs or in rural areas but not of working middle class whites who live in US cities.

    Correct, but this is a small % of the white population. Most white people either live in rural areas, in suburbs, or in wealthy urban enclaves like Manhattan, whose homicide rate in 2017 was 2.46 per 100,000, lower than in Berlin or London (I’m sure Manhattan without Harlem is lower still). Not many, and increasingly fewer, live in rough urban neighborhoods.

  148. LatW says:
    @melanf

    1. N. Russian
    2. Possibly Russian, could pass for Central European
    3. Finnic
    4. N. Russian
    5. Can pass for Russian
    6. N. Russian
    7. Russian, maybe Baltic
    8. Germanic? At least not typically Russian.

  149. Yevardian says:
    @melanf

    At a guess:

    1) – 99% sure she is Russian.
    2) – Scandinavian
    3) – Russian, possibly Finnish
    4) – Finnish
    5) – Finnish or Swedish
    6) – Russian
    7) – Finnish or Swedish
    8) – Definitely Scandinavian

    • Replies: @melanf
  150. Yevardian says:
    @melanf

    Only Slavs would agree to taking such a large group photo shirtless and not on the beach.

    • LOL: Philip Owen
  151. Dmitry says:
    @utu

    Yes I walked a lot more than that in the same. I had walked from Hollywood (my hotel) to Farmer’s market, and then to the Japanese area, and after walked from the downtown to Hollywood again (my hotel).

    • Replies: @utu
  152. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    The biggest Mormon ancestor group are Welsh. A lot of non Mormon Welsh in Montana as well. So even fewer rural Anglo Saxons. I suppose Methodists and Episcopaleans would be a good tracer. Quakers too.

  153. utu says:
    @Dmitry

    That’s really a lot. I am sure you brought some amusement to many people driving by: Look, a white man walking!

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  154. @Anarcho-Supremacist

    Most murders in Europe are performed by friends and family of the victim.

    • Replies: @Anarcho-Supremacist
    , @anon
  155. @Dmitry

    I drove out of the centre of DC and got a little lost. I ended up on a housing estate made up of badly built blocks of flats (plenty of land around) full of poor looking black people. I felt spooked. Outside my hotel there were needles on the street. That said, some back streets in Chicago where I went looking for the haunts of 19th C relatives were scarier. Derelicts lying around with masks on their faces.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  156. Dmitry says:
    @melanf

    I’m not disagreeing. But I’m interested which American cities are dangerous for tourists, or this is just our perception.

    I remember a lot of years ago, when we visited New York, on our first evening, we were lost and walking in a housing area with a lot of black kids looking at us.

    After we were saying “this was the dangerous part”. But is it actually dangerous?

    Karlin said earlier about London, that the areas with black people in the city are dangerous. But in London this is not really true (no part in London is actually dangerous).

    • Replies: @AaronB
    , @AP
  157. Dmitry says:
    @utu

    Lol, yes… and other tourists were visiting these places in microbuses.

    I think Los Angeles is the weirdest important city I have ever been to. I found Los Angeles romantic in a way, especially with the light in the evening time (when the sun is fading).

    But San Francisco far more attractive of course.

  158. Dmitry says:
    @Philip Owen

    Something I found spooky (in San Francisco), seeing all these homeless black people with one arm or one leg, like pirates. I was in Union Square – which is very nice area. But then just next to this, is the most famous dangerous area.

    Luckily I didn’t meet any people with masks on their face…

  159. AaronB says:
    @Dmitry

    Big American cities are fairly safe these days.

    When I was young in the early 90s, NYC was very unsafe. I was regularly attacked by roving groups of blacks even in good areas.

    Sometime in the mid 90s, that kind of stuff just stopped.

    Today, NYC is very safe. I live in a gentrifying neighborhood in Brooklyn. One block there is a housing project, the next block are trendy bars, cafes, and upscale supermarkets. Literally separated by one block.

    There are blacks and Hispanics everywhere, yet I don’t feel unsafe. White girls walk around drunk here at 3 am on a Saturday.

    I get the impression that blacks just aren’t so angry anymore. They seem to have calmed down, and are generally fine to get along with for the most part here.

    There are some neighborhoods that I would be a bit leery of walking through at night, but not terribly so – just a bit.

    And in the good areas, one feels safe all the time.

    Of course, crime can always happen anywhere.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @anon
  160. @Philip Owen

    Its very similar in the US. Most murder victims are associated in some way with the murderer. That’s why homicide rate is not the best indicator of “safety”.

  161. Dmitry says:
    @AaronB

    Maybe they have become too busy to attack people now, in between facetiming, watching rap battles on YouTube, and posting about their new sneakers over Instagram.

    • Replies: @AaronB
  162. AaronB says:
    @Dmitry

    If that’s what did it, then maybe modern technology has its uses…

    But I genuinely get the sense that the average black in America these days is far less hostile and angry than they used to be, whatever the cause…and whites perhaps angrier, although not dramatically so.

  163. anon[118] • Disclaimer says:
    @AaronB

    1. Three Strikes and the NYC Broken Windows version of the law put a great deal of blacks away at 20 in 1994 and they have been locked up for the last 25 years.

    2. Crack is not popular and less blacks are being raised in absolute squalor by crackhead parents.

    3. Lead poisoning,

  164. anon[824] • Disclaimer says:
    @Philip Owen

    Not in Russia or Italy, where mafia are an oligarchy that will blow up the cars of judges and politicians.

    There is a large difference between Finland and Sicily.

  165. @anon

    Plus remember NY and NYC were the first places to legalize abortion on demand no questions asked in the US

    • Replies: @ANONYMOUS1
  166. AP says:
    @Dmitry

    Manhattan, even Harlem, is pretty safe. And not only Manhattan. I remember leaving a birthday party at a bar in the lower East side about 5 years ago and taking the subway very late at night to Brooklyn – full of young tipsy well off people, no edge to it. Felt like western Europe prior to the migrants.

    Chicago is half Toronto and half Detroit. Avoid the latter part.

    Boston is safe.

  167. @Kinez

    Sure, but when people talk about “Slavic look” they typically don’t mean Montenegrins. The go-to image is a Northern guy with a rounder, less angular face than the Nordics. Soviet propaganda posters nailed it, and one of the reasons Gagarin was chosen to be the first man in space was that he had the right looks.

    You seem to be Serbian? There is a Serbian actor Miloš Biković, who regularly gets ethnic Russian roles in Russian movies because he has the face of a Northern Slav.

    https://peopletalk.ru/article/milosh-bikovich/

  168. @Anarcho-Supremacist

    The book FREAKONOMICS cited that and of course it is true. Roe vs Wade was 1973 and in the nineties there was a sudden drop in crime.

    For poor whites, the same thing was true of the pill. All of the sudden the WELCOME BACK KOTTER type white urban punks vanished in the 1990′s because Colleen O’Brien and Wanda Polakski and Donna DiWoppo and Billy Sue Cletus got on the pill in the late sixties.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  169. Twinkie says:
    @Dmitry

    In Washington DC, I felt it was very safe (yet it has a high murder rate, which I was surprised to learn).

    DC is heavily segregated. NWDC (e.g. Georgetown) is ultra-SWPL SEDC (e.g. Anacostia) is a war zone. Much of the rest is now becoming heavily gentrified.

  170. melanf says:
    @Yevardian

    The evolution of the debate

    Initial post ANON[269] • Disclaimer says:

    I’ve never been to Finland but anyone from the Northern Midwest can differentiate between Finns and other Scandinavians. They are more Slavic in appearance.

    melanf post 129

    If you really can differentiate between Slavs, Finn and other Scandinavians-determine who in the pictures Russian, Finn, or German-speaking Scandinavians without using Google…

    LatW
    1. N. Russian
    2. Possibly Russian, could pass for Central European
    3. Finnic
    4. N. Russian
    5. Can pass for Russian
    6. N. Russian
    7. Russian, maybe Baltic
    8. Germanic? At least not typically Russian.

    Yevardian
    1) – 99% sure she is Russian.
    2) – Scandinavian
    3) – Russian, possibly Finnish
    4) – Finnish
    5) – Finnish or Swedish
    6) – Russian
    7) – Finnish or Swedish
    8) – Definitely Scandinavian

    correct answer:
    1) – Russian.
    2) – Scandinavian (Norwegian)
    3) – Russian
    4) – Scandinavian (Swedish)
    5) – Finnish
    6) – Russian
    7) – Finnish (this is a Russian actress famous in Russia for performing the roles of hardcore Russian beauties. But by ethnicity she 100% Finn)
    8) – 100% Russian (with quite a typical Russian face)

    Bravo Yevardian, but the answers: “Russian, possibly Finnish”, “Finnish or Swedish” are themselves a convincing answer to the original message (that it is easy to distinguish Scandinavians from Finns and Slavs)

    • Replies: @melanf
  171. melanf says:
    @melanf

    It is very easy to see the role of the cultural factor – the girl in the photo № 1 has an appearance that can be both Slavic and Scandinavian, but she was certainly identified as Russian, thanks to a typically Russian smile. Here’s an example (cops):

    The girl in the photo № 8 (Olympic tennis champion Elena Dementieva) has an appearance that can be both Slavic and Scandinavian, but she was certainly identified as Scandinavian, due to the fact that in this photo she poses in a typical “Western” manner.
    If I had posted this photo of Elena Dementieva:

    you would have identified the bride as Russian (due to the fact that consciously/unconsciously identified the “Russian” background). After that, your brain would automatically recognize the “Slavic” features in the bride’s face (this is how the human brain works – it “completes” the picture, often mistakenly)
    If I wrote that in the pictures the Swede marries a Russian girl, you would believe it because it conforms to stereotypes (although in reality the groom is Russian hockey player).

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  172. melanf says:

    Girls 3 and 6 cousins with 100% Slavic origin, but look completely different.
    If I had posted this photo on the American anthropological forum, writing that this is a girl of Finnish origin and a girl of Norwegian (or German) origin, on vacation on a lake in Canada, I would have believed (because the photo confirms setereotypes). Those people who think that they always can easily distinguish Finn from Norwegian, and Norwegian from Slav – they would believe that this is a Finnish girl and Norwegian girl and they would not have any doubts.

    In the photo №7 Elena Kondulainen (Finn) by anthropological type – nordid (which is quite typical for Finns and Northern Slavs). In Russia, she played (in the movie) the girl from the tribes of ancient Slavs (because she fit the local stereotypes about appearance genuine Slavs).
    in America and Europe, other stereotypes- she would be recognized (by this photo) as a “German” girl (for example, the wife of Arminius, or Ragnar Lothbrok)

  173. @anon

    1. Thugs reproduce young, usually before having time to rack up three strikes, pill or no pill. Baby mamas still had their children with thugs, yet the offspring suddenly stopped being thuggish, with child and adolescent crime collapsing by circa 2014.

    2. Crack gained a bad reputation on the street, but youth poverty has been the same among blacks in the US the last decade as during the 1990s. Ditto single parent households. Poor but functional children do not display the squalor as well as poor and thuggish children.

    3. Bingo. NYC did mass replacement of old window frames, the big source of lead dust (suicide prevention) in the 1980s. Then the 1992 federal lead abatement law kicked in, with a bit of extra poisoning in the mid 90s due to poor clean up practices, hence the US 2016 spike in crime.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  174. ANON 23 says:

    Birth control pills lowered WHITE juvenile crime, not black.

    The Donna Cantenellis and Colleen O’Briens and Ruthie Lebowitz’s went on the pill in the late sixties and the ethnic white street gangs of the WELCOME BACK KOTTER-era disappeared.

  175. @ANONYMOUS1

    The Freakonomics guys are serial confabulators or worse.

    Steve Sailer debunked the abortion theory by showing that crime (and specifically, murder) kept exploding for years after the abortion effects should’ve kicked in:

    http://www.unz.com/isteve/abortion-and-crime-sailer-responds-to/

    • Agree: utu
  176. @Johan Meyer

    Crack cocain and the (((mass entertainment))) induced glorification of violence (gangsta hip-hop) resulted in a horrible wave of violence. However, its effects were so extremely horrible that younger cohorts, seeing their older brothers killed or disabled in shootings or in prison or their older sisters becoming crack whores, were no longer so keen on joining them. What might have looked so glamorous before started looking less glamorous now. Or it could have been just a natural fading of fads. Or both.

    • Replies: @Johan Meyer
  177. APilgrim says:

    Leaving out the murders committed by Joe Stalin leaves out most of the homicides.

  178. @reiner Tor

    However, its effects were so extremely horrible that younger cohorts, seeing their older brothers killed or disabled in shootings or in prison or their older sisters becoming crack whores, were no longer so keen on joining them.

    Not so much. Look at the weekend commentaries on heyjackass.com—when the commentaries (shot addresses and ages of victims (mainly gangsters, but the ones shot) started, the ratio of 18 year old victims to 17 year old victims was about two to one (more 18 year olds of a given pathology than 17 year olds of a given pathology will be involved in gangs).

    Now (2018) the ratio is about one to one, i.e. old thugs are shooting the younger siblings or children of other old thugs. There are far fewer young thugs around, though having an older thug sibling or parent around may lead to injury or death. Many mass gangland shootings will have one or two victims over twenty, and the bulk of the victims well below that age. The young victims are now far less likely to shoot back.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  179. @melanf

    But the tall guy in the background is the caricature of a British Geordie. Must be the viking blood. -)

    • Replies: @melanf
  180. melanf says:
    @Philip Owen

    This is the older brother of the “Aryan” from the photo :)

  181. @Johan Meyer

    Now (2018)

    My comment was about the nineties.

  182. EldnaYm says:
    @utu

    Abstract of that article:

    Historians have disagreed as to whether pre-Famine Ireland was an exceptionally violent society. Following a detailed review of the available statistics and an assessment of their reliability, an analysis of reported homicides during the 1840s suggests that levels of violence were not particularly high by contemporary European standards. Figures from the period before 1837, though less reliable, indicate a somewhat higher level of homicide, but one that was still lower than that recorded in other European jurisdictions in the first half of the nineteenth century.

    Some of the comments in this thread indicate both that people cannot distinguish between Ulster Scots and Irish and also the belief that the much talked about Irish American crime of the past corresponded to major offenses like murder or rape, when it was actually minor offenses. See for example here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2831353/

    In recent history Northern Ireland as opposed to the Republic of Ireland had a relatively high violent crime rate, but that has declined over the last couple of decades. In general, the association between the Irish and violent crime has been greatly exaggerated.

    • Replies: @inertial
  183. inertial says:
    @EldnaYm

    Irish throwing stones at New York City Police during Dead Rabbits Riot of 1857.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  184. @inertial

    South Wales starting receiving Irish immigrants from the 1830′s. They usually came as strikebreakers in lower skilled jobs but worked their way up. They are still distinguishable. Some weekly papers publish the names of convicted persons at the magistrates courts on Mondays. A disproportionate number have Irish and English surnames, especially Irish. (Only about half the population of the industrial areas is of Welsh descent. Welsh surnames are well under half of offenders). However, the Irish surnamed offenders are almost all drunk and disorderly in some manner. More serious matters like drug dealing are for the English and Welsh.

    The drunk and disorderly 5th generation immigrants have however given South Wales once famous for abstinence a modern reputation for drunkenness.

    The Jews, Italians, Spaniards and Norwegians were usually those being robbed by the English surnames. This is all going away now. It was last really in evidence in the 1970s apart from the last days of Babylon which was reenacted on the streets of major South Wales towns until pubs and clubs started fading away 10 years ago. Cardiff is still going strong.

    Bit too far off topic. I think John Wayne has much to answer for regarding “The Fighting Irish”.

  185. Bliss says:
    @YetAnotherAnon

    In Scotland the per capita murder rate is twice that of England and Wales, despite the relative absence of minorities (who account for a quarter of the E&W figures).

    Interesting.

    Must be genetic, right HBDers?

    And that explains why the Romans built Hadrian’s Wall….

    • Replies: @ANON 45
  186. ANON 45 says:
    @Bliss

    …And the white Americans most associated with poverty, violence, barbarity are people of Scots descent in the Mid South.

    The Italians, Irish, Jews had a few problems assimilating and their early 20th century slums produced some gangs in the Boardwalk Empire era but the whites associated with drug addiction, petty crime, trailer parks, domestic violence, child molestation, street prostitution are from the hills of the Mid South and Scots.

    • Replies: @EldnaYm
  187. neutral says:

    Here is something for Karlin, Moscow has the worst traffic jams in Europe.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-07/european-capitals-worst-traffic-jams

  188. Anon[236] • Disclaimer says:

    Fat karlin can keep banning & deleting.

    I will speak the truth, he has gone from a somewhat normal & cool writer to

    A fat internet autistic who associates with the garbage dump of the planet.

    Hopefully he improves fkn Fat Karlin

  189. EldnaYm says:
    @ANON 45

    You are correct that there are peculiarities among certain groups of Americans such as Appalachians many of which are likely Scots at least in part. But associating them with “violence” in general as you did in the first paragraph and contrasting their fortunes with other groups as you did in the second could be taken as implying that Scots are in general more troublesome than those other groups. Given that possibility it seems worth making a point about Italians.

    Any discussion of supposed Italian American assimilation has to account for the fact that more than half of Italians who came to the U.S. would later depart back to Europe. When Italians first arrived in large numbers, they had much higher rates of violence than other White groups. Italian’s rate of major crimes relative to other White groups was about what Hispanic’s is to White’s today.

    Naturally in my view the immigration of Italians, Catholic Irish, and Jews were all a net negative for the United States. As for Scots, one cannot even speak of the founding of the U.S. or for that matter the opening up of new frontiers without them.

  190. ANON 45 says:

    Hillbilly half-ass thuggery cannot be compared to Italian-Americans in organized crime who commit hijackings and assassinations every single day.

    As for “frontiers” I would say that during the age of industrialization in the North the Italians, Jews, Irish and more recently Asians and Hispanics come from corrupt civilizations where bribery and under-the-table deals were always a way of life in Rome or Warsaw ghettos and so are much better adapted to life in NYC/Beltway/Wall Street/Hollywood.

  191. Dmitry says:
    @melanf

    Lol, melanf has managed again to convert the discussion into a way to post pretty girls.

    Now we just needed Greasy to return to tell us how inferior they are to the Taylor Swift posters in his bedroom wall.

    • Replies: @melanf
    , @reiner Tor
  192. melanf says:
    @Dmitry

    Lol, melanf has managed again to convert the discussion into a way to post pretty girls.

    That’s because I like pretty girls :)

    Now we just needed Greasy to return to tell us how inferior they are to the Taylor Swift posters in his bedroom wall.

    Read briefly, missing the words:
    we just needed Greasy to return to tell us how inferior they are to the Taylor Swift in his bedroom

    Flashed duckthought-so that’s why Greasy does not write anything, he realized his dream.

  193. @Dmitry

    Pictures of pretty girls are nice to have, at least occasionally.

  194. @anonymous coward

    Finland and Russia are very outbred and also very violent.

    Violence correlates with alcohol, not with your moronic ‘Hajnal’ fantasy.

    To be fair, Hajnal himself studied not inbreeding but timing of marriage and percentage of never-marrieds. As blogger genby put it, murder rate is inversely proportional to the number of old maids:

    https://genby.livejournal.com/343530.html

    In no way was 19th century England more outbred than Russia, since the Orthodox Church absolutely prohibited first-cousin marriage and required special permission for second-cousin marriage. Both were permitted in Anglicanism. Among the descendants of the English in America it was also normalized: Edgar Allan Poe married his 13-year-old first cousin, and historians say while her age was unusual for the time (indeed, the family lied about it in the official papers), their kinship was definitely not.

  195. “Bottom line: White Americans have homicide rates completely in line with longstanding cis-Hajnalian groups like the English and Welsh, the cis-Hajnalian transformation of formerly trans-Hajnalian groups like the Finns and Italians is now complete, the transformation of Russians may be underway”

    White Americans, even in lilly-white northeastern states where “white” doesn’t include all sorts of significantly native Hispanics at significant rates just to quell white american fears of making them look worse than they are, have higher homicide rates than most Europeans, even when you include recent immigrants in Europe. And what exact transformation happened to groups like Italians and Greeks who have had some of the lowest homicide rates in the past few decades with a significant drop compared to the recent past? Maybe most of the Hajnal explanations are just bogus, just maybe.

    “1) irish, scots-irish, slavs. if you do a violent crime anaylsis by type of european, it’s probably the same as most other sociology measures. the germanics and scandinavians are less violent, then things get more violent as you move south and east, or get celtic.”

    Why don’t you run the analysis instead of making vague statements? There’s no real trend within Europe, where you have similar very rates and no clear geographic pattern, with the exception of the East Slavic and Albanian outliers and conditions there are plausibly due to the recent environment with significant drops happening. Much of the commentary in HBD circles looks more vague nonsense borne out of in-group preference than anything else, unless it’s established science like IQ and even there arguments are often rated on subjective “plausibility” than a real look at the data.

  196. “In no way was 19th century England more outbred than Russia, since the Orthodox Church absolutely prohibited first-cousin marriage and required special permission for second-cousin marriage. Both were permitted in Anglicanism. Among the descendants of the English in America it was also normalized: Edgar Allan Poe married his 13-year-old first cousin, and historians say while her age was unusual for the time (indeed, the family lied about it in the official papers), their kinship was definitely not.”

    Admittedly, the more northern members of the Orthodox Church seem to have discounted those prohibitions more but, on a more general point, these sorts of thing always get brought up but they’re handwaved by reference to other sources (without an attempt at synthesis, but more like dismissal according to personal preference) and discarding genetic ROH and IBD data according to personal whim and interpretation. It’s the realm of Jaymanian science.

  197. eah says:

    In general crime seems to be a problem in Russia.

    Only in Russia.

  198. steppe says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    On the second point – you got me there. That being said, the same principle can be applied to late tsarism. Who sold out the tsar? Loser “Democrats” and backstabbing aristocrats. Again, the enemies are the liberals, and they are enemies of both the Tsar and the Reds. Right?

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