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Rosstat Publishes New Demographic Forecast to 2035
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While we wait for the last data to trickle in to update Russian Demographics in 2019 for the new year, I would note that Rosstat released a new demographic forecast at the end of December.

Here is the TLDR on what they project for 2035:

  • As usual, there is a Low, Medium, and High scenario.
  • Population will change from 146.7M in 2020, to:
    • L: 135.2M
    • M: 143.1M
    • H: 149.8M
  • Numbers of annual births, deaths, and natural increase will change from ~1.5M, ~1.8M, and -0.3M, respectively, in 2019, to:
    • L: 1.1M – 2.0M = -0.9M
    • M: 1.3M – 1.7M = -0.4M
    • H: 1.4M – 1.4M = 0.0M
  • These estimates are reliant upon the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) increasing from a projected ~1.50 children per woman in 2019, to:
    • L: 1.37
    • M: 1.58
    • H: 1.74
  • … life expectancy going from 73.4 years in 2019 (note: In reality, it was already at 73.6 years as of the first eight months of this year), to:
    • L: 75.4
    • M: 79.1
    • H: 81.7
  • … and annual net immigration going from ~250,000 in 2020, to:
    • L: 15,000
    • M: remaining stable
    • H: rising to close to 400,000

Assessment

1. I am actually reasonably optimistic that the Medium-High scenario will be achieved for life expectancy by 2035.

Since I released my Russia demographics model in 2008, Russian life expectancy has consistently tracked the High variant. My High variant correlates to somewhere in between Rosstat’s Medium and High scenarios, reaching an LE of just a bit over 80 years by 2035. I am almost certain that, barring some humanitarian catastrophe, Russia’s LE will be way higher than 75.4 years by 2035.

That said, life expectancy has by far the least impact on future population trends relative to fluctuations in TFR and net immigration.

2. Predicting fertility trends is much more of a risky undertaking than life expectancy. That said, I have argued that there is good cause to think that Russia’s long-term TFR should recover to at least 1.7 children per woman, the dip from 2016-today regardless.

At any rate, I expect Russia to hew closer to the High scenario than the Medium one, while the Low scenario – which has TFR plummeting to a trough of 1.28 by the mid-2020s – a number that would return it to its 1996-2002 nadir, when the country was in the midst of a comprehensive socio-economic collapse – strikes me as highly unlikely.

3. Obviously, immigration is the toughest of all to predict. Even the authorities can’t assess it properly except during Census time (in 2010, it was discovered there were 1M more Russians than expected). That said, many Central Asians are now going to South Korea instead of Russia, some are even going to the EU (encountered a Kyrgyz Uber driver in Warsaw), and by the 2030s, potentially, maybe even China would start becoming a cheap labor magnet. Few of them are actually settling in Russia. Meanwhile, the stock of Russians in the f.USSR who are willing to emigrate to Russia has dwindled, as everyone who was ever going to come back has largely already done so. The main avenue for politically-uncontroversial demographic growth through immigration now lies with enticing Ukrainians, Belorussians, and Moldovans to emigrate to Russia. And steps on that are already being taken.

Will it be enough to cancel out the flood of repatriating Russians from prior years? Much will depend, of course, on socio-economic and political trajectories in the Near Abroad, especially the Ukraine. As well as on Russia’s own economic success or lack thereof in coming years. My conservative guess is that net migration will hover between the Low and Medium scenarios. Though perhaps the Federal Migration Service’s tendency to undercount will push that number up closer to the Medium scenario.

In summary, my expectations are:

  • Life expectancy: Medium-High scenario
  • Fertility: Medium-High scenario (sooner High)
  • Net immigration: Low-Medium (sooner Medium)

***

Obviously, I don’t have access to the Rosstat model, so there’s no way for me to play around with it. That said, there are a few observations I can nonetheless make:

1. I would set a floor on the Medium scenario, i.e. a population of ~143M+ in 2035. I.e., neither rise, nor freefall.

2. The main divergence from Rosstat’s High scenario that I expect will be in the sphere of net immigration. The total difference in net immigration between these two scenarios through to 2035 constitutes 1.6M. These will be young people, so assume they produce some children to get a figure of ~2M. Subtract that from 149.8M, and one gets 147M-148M. That is broadly where I actually expect Russia’s population to be at come 2035.

3. One further thing we can do is look at past demographic projections from Rosstat:

Russian statistics agency Rosstat forecasts 140.9 million in 2025, the High version being 146.7 million…

This was from 2011. Current population is 146.8M, subtract ~2.5M to account for Crimea to get 144.3M. So, actual result was about midway between the Medium and High estimate.

Meanwhile, it was the High scenario from Rosstat projections in 2000 that ended up coming true by 2011. (In fairness, this was at the end of a decade of very negative trends).

Still, based on the past Rosstat predictive record, weighing one’s bets between their Medium and High projects is hardly a risky or radical idea.

 
• Category: Economics • Tags: Demographics, Futurism, Russia 
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  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

  2. Population Change in the Former Soviet Republics from 1989 to 2018.

    The World needs more Russians. Fingers crossed that the High Variant comes to fruition !!

  3. Mr. XYZ says:

    The main avenue for politically-uncontroversial demographic growth through immigration now lies with enticing Ukrainians, Belorussians, and Moldovans to emigrate to Russia. And steps on that are already being taken.

    What are Russians’ objections to Chinese and Indian immigration? Too foreign of a culture?

  4. @Mr. XYZ

    Spending five minutes near an average representative of either is indicative of why you don’t want them in your country. They have the deviousness of blacks except with the intelligence to do more than petty crime with it, and get away with it.

  5. Mr. XYZ says:

    Also, a bit off-topic, but do you think that Russia should withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union, Anatoly? After all, you said that economic integration can lead to political integration but also expressed the fear that the Eurasian Economic Union could eventually become a Greater Turkestan. You also previously expressed your dissatisfaction at Central Asian immigration to Russia.

  6. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Belarusian Dude

    TBH, as someone who lives in southern California, I personally never had that type of negative experience with either Chinese or Indians. Granted, US Indians are the cognitive elite of their country, but even in Britain (where the Indian population doesn’t appear to be as smart as the US Indian population), I don’t seem to recall ever reading about Indians (as opposed to Pakistanis and Bangladeshis) actually causing a lot of trouble there.

    • Disagree: RadicalCenter
  7. @Mr. XYZ

    This is not a sarcastic answer but a genuine one. The Russians object for the simple reason that the Chinese and Indians are not Russian and can’t be made into Russians like the Ukrainians, Belorussians and Moldovans readily can.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
  8. @Belarusian Dude

    There are many good reasons to object. But yet you have managed to give a bad one.

    • Replies: @Belarusian Dude
  9. @Blinky Bill

    Speak for yourself, that has been the experience of the ones I have had here.

  10. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Belarusian Dude

    I suppose that you also don’t want Jewish immigration into your country for the same reasons, correct?

    Also, you don’t like Chinatowns?

  11. @Mr. XYZ

    Chinese urban wages are now higher than Russia’s. No Chinese are going to be emigrating. Even most Chinese students in the US are going back since c.2010.

    Indian emigration might be more feasible, but I think there are plenty of countries where they will fit in better. There are large established Indian communities in other European countries, like the UK and Portugal. And Poland seems to be a hit with them, with up to 1% of the faces in Central Warsaw looking subcon. Russia would be competing with them, so unless it offers much easier immigration, they’ll opt for Europe.

    Trump is looking to “optimize” the H-1B so even the US might draw in more of them, all that America First nonsense regardless.

  12. Mr. XYZ says:

    The Koreans on southern Sakhalin managed to do a pretty good job of becoming Russians, no? I mean, Yes, they’re physically different from Russians, but in terms of culture, they appear to be pretty Russified.

    • Replies: @Cicerone
  13. @Mr. XYZ

    He just hasn’t met the right kind of Chinese in life yet. If he did I’m sure he’d come to love them like brothers.

    • LOL: Daniel Chieh
    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
  14. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Chinese urban wages are now higher than Russia’s. No Chinese are going to be emigrating. Even most Chinese students in the US are going back since c.2010.

    The quality of life in Moscow is much higher than in Russian cities as a whole, no? Plus, due to the hukou system, aren’t a lot of Chinese prohibited from settling in China’s largest and most prosperous urban areas? Indeed, how does Moscow compare with medium-sized Chinese urban areas?

    As for the US, in spite of the improving quality of life in China, can’t the (more liberal) US nevertheless attract some liberal-minded Chinese who aren’t that fond of the authoritarianism and totalitarianism in China? Granted, though, Russia doesn’t exactly have this advantage.

    Indian emigration might be more feasible, but I think there are plenty of countries where they will fit in better. There are large established Indian communities in other European countries, like the UK and Portugal. And Poland seems to be a hit with them, with up to 1% of the faces in Central Warsaw looking subcon. Russia would be competing with them, so unless it offers much easier immigration, they’ll opt for Europe.

    What attracts Indians to Poland specifically? I mean, Poland is about as wealthy as Russia is, no?

    Trump is looking to “optimize” the H-1B so even the US might draw in more of them, all that America First nonsense regardless.

    Do you have a link for this, please?

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Anatoly Karlin
  15. @Blinky Bill

    See. Dangerous. Very dangerous.

  16. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Blinky Bill

    The Koreans on southern Sakhalin managed to do a pretty good job of becoming Russians, no? I mean, Yes, they’re physically different from Russians, but in terms of culture, they appear to be pretty Russified.

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  17. @Mr. XYZ

    Everything you say is correct the Sakhalin Koreans are highly Russified, the Koryo-saram even more so. But you must remember their numbers are small and Stalin really did a number on them. That brutal process rapidly accelerated their assimilation/Russification.

    One important difference is believe it or not, the Koreans are actually native to the Russian Far East. The bit from the North Korean border all the way to Vladivostok. Many will debate the term native but they certainly predate the Slavic presence there. This makes them very different to the Indians and some what different from the Chinese.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
  18. @Mr. XYZ

    In Russian: го́пник In Belarusian: гопнік

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
  19. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Blinky Bill

    What’s his identity, though?

  20. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Blinky Bill

    The Russian Far East actually had a sizable number of Koreans before the late 19th century?

    • Replies: @Nemets
  21. Anon 2 says:

    OT: Trump is considering travel ban on Belarus. What has Belarus done
    to annoy the U.S.?

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  22. The total difference in net immigration between these two scenarios through to 2035 constitutes 1.6M. These will be young people, so assume they produce some children to get a figure of ~2M.

    Not all immigrants are going to be young and breeding-happy. Say, a large fraction of the immigrants from Ukraine are 30+ years old professionals or highly qualified workers. People like that don’t breed like rabbits, even when they are relatively young. The same would be true for Belarus if it chooses the downwards path, like Ukraine.

    • Replies: @DreadIlk
  23. @Anon 2

    Belorussians so far demonstrated much smarter behavior than Ukrainians. That annoys the US no end.

    • Replies: @AP
  24. Nemets says: • Website
    @Mr. XYZ

    Yes – Korean Kingdom of Puyo used to rule Primorsky Kray, as did Koguryo & Parhae later on. All of these were in the 1st millennium AD, after that the Koreans were either assimilated to the Tungusic invaders or destroyed. They wouldn’t return until the peasant strife of the late 18th century & Japanese repression in early 20th century.

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
  25. DreadIlk says:
    @AnonFromTN

    Ukrainians in that age group fleeing to Russia bring their kids with them.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  26. @DreadIlk

    True, but they don’t have many, mostly one or two per family, just like most Russians.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
  27. @Anatoly Karlin

    This is good to know because it paves the way for more cooperation between Russia and China, when overwrought concerns about a takeover of the Far East are left on the side of the road. You know there isn’t much potential for a large scale Chinese migration to the Far East due to wages catching up, but how generally aware is the strategic affairs community in Moscow? Do they still fear a takeover by continuous migration? Is that one reason that holds them back from enthusiastically engaging with China?

    • Replies: @Dreadilk
  28. AP says:
    @AnonFromTN

    As of October 2019, Ukrainian wages have improved to 83% of Belarussian wages.

  29. Mr. XYZ says:

    Interesting. So, a part of Russia’s GDP comes from oil and other natural resources–thus allowing Russia to have a GDP PPP per capita comparable to Poland but monthly wages that are only 70% of the Polish average if one adjusts for cost of living?

    • Agree: AP
  30. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AP

    But adjusted for cost of living, it looks like they’re only slightly more than half those of Belarus, no?

    • Agree: AP
  31. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AnonFromTN

    Well, Russia has much more Lebensraum than the Donbass has, so if one really wants a larger family, one might have an easier time doing this in Russia than in the Donbass.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  32. @AP

    Yea, and Belarus is such a prosperous country! Way ahead of Honduras, right?

    If everything in Ukraine is so hunky-dory, why did 500,000 Ukrainian citizens in 2019 apply for and receive Russian citizenship?

    • Replies: @AP
  33. AP says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    What attracts Indians to Poland specifically? I mean, Poland is about as wealthy as Russia is, no?

    Russian wages are only 50% of Polish wages:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_average_wage#European_and_transcontinental_countries_by_monthly_average_wage

    So the magnitude of the difference between Polish and Russian average wages is greater than the difference between Ukrainian and Russian average wages (Ukrainian average wages are 63% of Russian wages).

    It’s why Ukrainians have switched from Russia to Poland as the favored place to go to make money as a guest worker.

    (adjusted for cost of living, Russian wages are 70% of Polish wages and Ukrainian wages are 56% of Russian wages)

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
  34. AP says:
    @AnonFromTN

    ~ Half of those are Donbas refugees? Russia still has much higher wages.

  35. @Mr. XYZ

    FYI, out of 500,000 Ukrainian citizens who obtained Russian citizenship in 2019, 300,000 were not from Donbass. They came from a large country that flushed itself down the drain voluntarily. They refused to remain in a cesspool.

    However, I am pretty sure that the size of their families was pretty much the same as in Russia (no more than two kids).

    • Replies: @Curious
    , @AP
    , @Mr. XYZ
  36. Curious says:
    @AnonFromTN

    500,000 Ukrainian citizens who obtained Russian citizenship in 2019,

    Do you have numbers for the top 5 nationalities who acquired Russian citizenship last year? I can’t find recent data on this in English on Rosstat.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  37. AP says:
    @AnonFromTN

    Given that Russian wages are about 40% higher than Ukrainian wages, there is no language barrier, Russia is right next door, and it is easy to get citizenship, this is a small number. If Ukraine were actually collapsing, the number would have been much higher.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  38. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AP

    Were things different in regards to this (specifically the Russia-Poland wage gap) before 2014? Or did it simply become much easier for Ukrainians to work in Poland over the last several years?

    • Replies: @Cicerone
  39. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AnonFromTN

    FYI, out of 500,000 Ukrainian citizens who obtained Russian citizenship in 2019, 300,000 were not from Donbass. They came from a large country that flushed itself down the drain voluntarily. They refused to remain in a cesspool.

    Good for them. Basically, they are following in the footsteps of earlier Ukrainian migrants who moved to Russia in each of a better life–such as in Tsarist times, when Russia and Ukraine were still one country and when Ukrainians helped to colonize Siberia, the Far East, and Central Asia.

    However, I am pretty sure that the size of their families was pretty much the same as in Russia (no more than two kids).

    Did they primarily settle in urban, suburban, or rural areas in Russia?

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  40. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Also, in regards to your thread topic in general, I was wondering: Do you ever expect to see full life expectancy convergence between Russia and (whites in) the West? If so, do you expect to see this in the late 21st century? Also, both for men and women or only for women?

    I’m actually curious as to how many supercenternarians Russia would have had right now had it not been for a legacy of Communist rule. Western countries have a relatively large number of supercentenarians–as does Japan–but Russia has none or almost none. Granted, there have been some emigrant supercentenarians who were born in the Russian Empire (who typically left when they were young and moved to the West), but a lot of these were non-Slavs (Jews, Germans, et cetera)–so I’m unsure if lessons from them could be applied to the Slavic population in Russia and elsewhere in the former Soviet space.

  41. @Mr. XYZ

    Most of the West is now static and ranges from between 79-82, so judging by the medium-high prediction that is exactly what will happen by 2035.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
  42. Dreadilk says:
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    Russia was never afraid of losing its far east to China. Nukes and Chinese don’t really want to emigrate north.

    The reason they don’t work together is because both are big players with ego. They only work when both threatened.

  43. ariel says:

    since you mention China and South Korea, both of those countries are projected to have a declining population by 2028, do you think that immigration can stop that trend?

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  44. @Mr. XYZ

    What attracts Indians to Poland specifically? I mean, Poland is about as wealthy as Russia is, no?

    Roosh has a very plausible take:

    The reality for Indian guys in America is that they have an uphill battle trying to bang the blonde women they so desire, especially if they have a thick accent. Well whenever I saw this Indian guy, he was with a reasonably looking Polish girl (a 5 or 6) who was almost always indulging his conversation. It’s no surprise that he walked around with a permanent smile.

    Polish girls have almost no bias toward minority races. I’ve seen Indian, Asian, Middle Eastern, and black guys all perform well with the girls. The level of success minorities have in Poland even exceeds that of Scandinavia, where liberal guilt prevents girls from negatively stereotyping minorities. I say this because if you’re a minority who doesn’t pull in Poland, don’t blame your race—blame your game. You have no excuse. …

    Indian guys are next. Light-skinned Indian guys who could be confused for being Spanish will do best, but as I mentioned in my opening story, even dark Indians shouldn’t have an especially hard time. I saw more Indian guys with cute white girls in Poland than I ever saw in America. I don’t want to get you Indian dudes too excited, but you should experience warmer responses.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @Mr. XYZ
  45. @AP

    Meanwhile, Ukraine wages stagnated to 75% of Crimean wages from 110% in 2013.

    • Replies: @AP
  46. @Mr. XYZ

    Also, in regards to your thread topic in general, I was wondering: Do you ever expect to see full life expectancy convergence between Russia and (whites in) the West?

    Actually, if the High Rosstat forecasts are correct, it might happen as early as the 2030s, since life expectancy in many Western countries is stagnating where it is not declining (e.g. the US).

    US whites are currently just short of 79 years. That’s equivalent to the current Rosstat Medium forecast for 2035.

    This is in line with my model (High scenario) from 2008 which has tracked actual Russian life expectancy since splendidly. (Prediction: ~74 years in 2019, reality: ~73.6 years in 8M 2019 and might yet another couple of months).

    I don’t expect Russians to ever become as high LE as Meds or Swiss, but reaching US white or even Finnish levels is feasible imo.

    • Replies: @Rattus Norwegius
    , @Mr. XYZ
  47. @ariel

    Don’t think China’s population will be declining by 2028, but will need to look at the stats again.

    South Korea is the most likely of the three big advanced East Asian polities to go multicultural mode. Many Central Asians already switching there from Russia. But I doubt many of them will be settling there.

  48. @Curious

    Can’t find the info in English. Don’t have time to do an in-depth search (BTW, you need to use Yandex, not the CIA shill google). I am pretty sure that with ~ 500,000 Ukraine would be #1 as a source for immigrants in Russia. For comparison, 141 Russian citizens moved in 2019 to Ukraine. So, for every Russian who moved from “hell” to “prosperous” Ukraine there were >3,500 Ukrainians moving from their “paradise” to Russia.

  49. @Mr. XYZ

    To the best of my knowledge (which is limited), educated people and highly qualified workers mostly move to big cities: that’s where their jobs are.

    As industry is rapidly disappearing in “prosperous” Ukraine, they basically have the same choice I had in 1991: if you want to do what you are qualified for, you have to move elsewhere; if you want to stay where you are, you have to do something else.

    • Replies: @Cicerone
    , @AP
  50. mal says:

    My bet – by 2035, 145M Russians, life expectancy about equal to US, not too much Chinese migration.

    Why: migration into Russia will exceed estimates, TFR… i hope it gets to 1.7, but its not a great number.

    AP is right about Poland and Ukrainians. But Poland is the biggest welfare queen in Europe, and once British finally leave EU, EU will lose a big budget contributor. Polish allowance will get cut. This will have an impact on Polish employment. Poland is also saturated with German investment. Germans are interested in markets further East (such as Russia) to save their economy (hence cries about Nord Stream 2). By 2030, Germans and Russians (and French too) will be in cahoots, Europeans have no other choice for growth.

    Unlike Poland, Russia has no welfare dependence, has a bigger market, and not alien like China (IP theft etc).

    Net result – smart Ukrainians and Belorussians will flow to Russia by 2030. Maybe others too (I’m in Russia now to get my passport back, my kids will have an option to leave US if necessary and go to their grandparents’ place).

    On US: the good news is the opioid epidemic is subsiding, deaths from overdose are down for the first time in a long while. Bad news, by 2030 50% of population will be obese. This will trigger runaway healthcare costs from already crazy 17-18% GDP to 20-25% GDP. This will not be pretty and i don’t want my kids forced to live through this. Russia seems OK as far as that goes for now.

    Anyway, obesity will start culling US life expectancy as current overpriced system cant handle upsurge in diabetics.

    On Chinese – their demographics are even worse than Russia, they have a giant credit bubble the size of US, and they want to urbanize. They will migrate to Shanghai, not Khabarovsk. Also, i went to Winter Palace (Hermitage) yesterday, it was a bit jarring with Chinese tour groups everywhere. In US though, Chinese feel well blended in, they are everywhere and they belong. I don’t think high culture Russians have high opinion of mass Chinese migration, based on family conversations.

    Overall, Chinese wouldn’t want to come, and Russians wouldn’t welcome them in large numbers.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  51. Cicerone says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    A lot of Koreans of the former Soviet Union (Koryo-saram) are now migrating back to South Korea, as living standards there are higher and SK finds itself in a demographic crisis with the lowest TFR on Earth. While trying to raise the birth rates should be first priority, SK is now busy luring back its former-Soviet and Chinese diaspora.

    • Replies: @mal
  52. Cicerone says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    Poland used to have pretty high unemployment rates until recently. When there were jobs in Poland, there were always enough Poles available to fill them. Now that Poland is approaching full employment, it has become a much more obvious migration destination.

  53. Cicerone says:
    @AnonFromTN

    I think Kiev is still offering OKish opportunities for many Ukrainians. At leats it is the only city in Ukraine showing decent growth.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  54. mal says:
    @Cicerone

    You would have to be suicidal to migrate to a country that is killing itself. I mean, if the natives are self exterminating, what do you think will happen to you, a migrant? Unless you are a Muslim and just plan on taking over.

  55. @Cicerone

    There is Russian and Ukrainian expression ‘to collect cream on shit”. Kiev sure is the cream of that substance.

  56. @Blinky Bill

    I don’t know who these hoes are but it seems pretty irrelevant, it feels like when Israelis try to get sympathy from me by posting hot Jewesses in the army

  57. @Mr. XYZ

    Yes although Jews kind of sort of have jus sanguinus (not really) so while bad they’re more justified coming here than sinoids. And yes I do dislike Chinatowns me and the fellas always accost some slant eyes when we see them

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  58. @AP

    Lmao

    You should visit Ukraine some time diasporoid, if you unironically believe Ukrainians are better off the Belarusians

    • Replies: @AP
  59. Dmitry says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Roosh is a Pakistani or Indian man, who born in America or had American citizenship.

    His scam is that he invents stories about this imaginary European sexual utopia, and then sells these fantasy stories to gullible nerds inside America. Some part of his audience are brown nerds like himself, so he will adjust story to match their situation (i.e. that Polish women particularly love Indian men)

    Then he uses income from selling the stories, to pay for him to hire prostitutes in Ukraine – and makes YouTube videos which show him hiring prostitutes, while living in poor third-world conditions. YouTube also promotes his channel if you are unlucky enough to click on it once.

    According to Ukrainian television, he also takes photos next to random women and then writes about how they are his girlfriend.

    America is a country where the white man is the historically highest caste, or “Brahmin caste” as Roosh would perceive this. While brown people like him are socially the second lowest, or just above the descendants of African slaves. So for him to hire a Ukrainian prostitute, is some kind of status symbol, as they are white, and look like the people who were above him in America.

    However, if you watch him in Ukrainian television, you can see the real reason he was rejected in America is a complete lack of charm, and externally looking unhappy and angry. (Most unhappy and angry people can at least cover this with a mask).

    With people like that who cannot even mask their unhappiness in public (on television), they might misperceive negative reaction of people to him as being racism or discrimination.

  60. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Ukrainian wages didn’t stagnate; rather, Crimea had gotten massive subsidies from Russia which more than surpassed Ukraine’s wage growth.

    • Replies: @mal
  61. AP says:
    @Belarusian Dude

    Did you read my post? Are you illiterate?

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
    • LOL: Belarusian Dude
  62. Dmitry says:
    @mal

    gets to 1.7, but its not a great number.

    Without further updates of information – in Russia the number (actual fertility rate) has been something around 1,6-1,7 for women born since 1964.

    So it is possible we are not talking about any such recent change and we are just seeing a steady fertility rate at this level (which is slightly lower than Northern Western European fertility rates, while slightly higher than Southern European fertility rates – i.e. quite a medium setting) .

    The significant fall in fertility rate – from around 1,9 to 1,6-1,7 – is something mainly which covers the 1980s, with the economic and social crisis of the 1990s having perhaps greater effects on timing of births, than eventual number of children women had. (Below is data for Russia that was available in 2011).

    • Replies: @mal
  63. AP says:
    @AnonFromTN

    As industry is rapidly disappearing in “prosperous” Ukraine

    Industry is rather neither growing nor collapsing. Industrial decline mostly due to decline in global steel and iron prices, not to disappearing industries. New factories are being built in the west and center.

    if you want to do what you are qualified for, you have to move elsewhere

    Ukraine’s IT industry is booming. It’s a good place for programmers, coders, software developers, R&D etc. :

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriacollins/2019/10/01/the-ukrainian-tech-industry-and-the-launch-of-the-ukraine-it-creative-fund/

    Google just opened an office in Kiev, only it’s third in Eastern Europe.

    • Replies: @Dreadilk
  64. Poles seem much more liberal minded and open to foreigners, even non-whites, than Russians do. Likely the result of Catholic universalism I would say.

  65. @Dmitry

    1. Roosh is Armenian-Iranian.

    2. These are all your suppositions. FWIW, his observations on Poland largely matched mine.

  66. @Anatoly Karlin

    Innovations in Biotechnology and Life Sciences might change the average lifespan dramatically. This could become an equalizer, relating to average lifespan. On the other hand the gap between the material and knowledge have’s, and have not’s could increase. How dispersed across the globe will such technolgies be?

    • Replies: @mal
  67. mal says:
    @Dmitry

    Yeah, I know. All developed countries have TFR below 2.0. This is the way of nature telling us high intelligence is not necessary and evolution is the preferred path for developing advanced tech.

    Nevertheless, if we are to politely disagree with nature (and I’m in this camp), we must be breeders. To sustain intellectual civilization, TFR must be 2.1 or above. If not, evolution is indeed superior and nature is correct.

    Russia therefore must push to 2.1 to be sustainable over generations.

  68. mal says:
    @AP

    Ukraine got massive subsidies from IMF.

    Which is great but you don’t mess with IMF – Ukraine will have to pay back, and it won’t be pretty.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
  69. mal says:
    @Rattus Norwegius

    In the medium to long term life expectancy is utterly irrelevant. Breeding new generations is the only thing that counts. Any lifespan beyond breeding age is superfluous in nature.

    You are a product. You are 3.5-4.0 or more billion years old. The only thing that matters about you is your genetic code. Everything else is irrelevant. The only thing that matters is – do you quit? Or do you work on the product for the next few billion years?

    • Replies: @Dreadilk
  70. Dreadilk says:
    @AP

    As I said before IT for a poor country means jack shit. You need resource extracting, processing and manufacturing industry. If you don’t have that you are pathetic.

  71. Dreadilk says:
    @mal

    Breeding new generations are irrelevant too. More die off will create more space for breeders anyways. Temporary dip will be compensated by easier breeding.

    Ofcourse there is a limit to everything and enough of a dip can cause long term damage.

    I think any nation numbering in tens of millions will be fine with the world wide trend we are experiencing.

    • Replies: @mal
  72. mal says:
    @Dreadilk

    “Breeding new generations are irrelevant too. ”

    Only if you don’t care about the product going forward 🙂

    It is always the product that goes forward. Maybe not yours, but it goes on.

    • Agree: DreadIlk
  73. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    What’s true for Polish girls is also true for East Slavic girls, no? Or are East Slavic girls more bigoted and/or prejudiced?

  74. @AP

    You identify sound reasons why it’s easier and more natural for Ukrainians to move to Russia rather than almost anywhere else.

    But half a million people seeking Russian citizenship IN A SINGLE YEAR out of a Ukrainian population of 35-40 million is massive.

    I wonder how many Ukrainian citizens have sought Russian Citizenship over the past 5-6 years.

    • Replies: @AP
  75. @Dmitry

    While brown people like him

    Maybe he’s brown by Russian standards, but the only people in America who’d describe him as “brown” are WNs. Even if he’s not accepted (or regarded) as white, but he’s too caucasoid to be described as brown. And for a lot of people he’d be ‘white’ in a not-really-but-close-enough sense.

    AK reckons he’s witnessed it, but I’m still pretty skeptical that Polish girls would be gaga over Indians. Gypsies are basically Indians, and most girls in the Balkans wouldn’t be caught dead with a gypo.

  76. AP says:
    @RadicalCenter

    They’ve made it easier recently; this isn’t half a million people moving there in one year in order to grab citizenship; many of them have already been there and have changed their status.

  77. AP says:
    @silviosilver

    A friend of mine, an engineer, had a lot of Indian classmates when in university in the USA. The only one who married a European girl married a Polish one. However he was very light-skinned and from a very rich family, and would not be confused for a gypsy. I also can’t imagine ones looking like gypsies being popular.

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    , @Mr. XYZ
  78. @silviosilver

    AK is just trolling the Poles. It’s a Russian Nationalist pastime.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  79. AP says:
    @silviosilver

    Perhaps it’s because of Catholicism, but Polish people do have an affinity for Mediterranean people. They don’t like Islam so non-Christian Arabs are out of the question, but I’ve noticed Poles marrying Italians, Greeks, etc. A Polish friend of mine in the USA dated a Chaldean girl (Iraqi Christian) for a little bit. In America it isn’t uncommon for Polish lumpens to mix with lighter-skinned Latinos.

    So I wouldn’t doubt it if a non-Muslim light-skinned person from the subcontinent (or an Armenian from Iran) could find someone in Poland.

  80. @Belarusian Dude

    Me and the fellas always accost some slant eyes when we see them.

  81. @Blinky Bill

    Nobody trolls Poles better or more viciously than Poles themselves. If there were a competition of loser nations, Poles would take the third place (after Kurds and Ukrainians). For centuries Poland enraged its two powerful neighbors, Germany and Russia, and was divided between them in response. They are doing it now in the hopes that the US will protect them. False hope again: the US will protect them exactly like Britain and France protected them in 1939.

    It is said that fools learn from their own mistakes, whereas smart people learn from the mistakes of fools. I wonder, what would you call people who don’t learn even from their own mistakes?

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
  82. @AnonFromTN

    The difference now is that Germany is a puppet state of the US itself, as exemplified by the US having 50,000 troops stationed in the country. Merkel has been so craven to satisfy US demands that she helped spy on other European leaders on behalf of the white house under Obama. I think Trump is an abberattion. Once/when a democrat comes back into office, the servility will return. Nordstream 2 is a bad indicator in my view of sovereignity given that A) it was started under arguably the most-pro Russian PM in Germany’s modern history and B) even “Atlanticists” understand that Germany needs cheap energy. It is hardly a geopolitical pivot towards Russia.

    I find that a pity, as I am much more impressed by Russia’s foreign policy in e.g. the Middle East than I am of the US. Hopefully the recent Berlin conference can be the start of genuine engagement between Berlin and Moscow in the wider neighbourhood and Germany’s reticence can be undone. The US acts as little else than the golem of Israel in the Middle East, with disastrous consequences for the region and with the refugee spillover on the shores of Europe.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  83. @mal

    Ukraine got massive subsidies from IMF. Which is great but you don’t mess with IMF – Ukraine will have to pay back, and it won’t be pretty.

    I don’t have a dog in this fight, but I do look at the data.

    Ukraine sells €1.25bn of new debt at record-low borrowing costs

    Ukraine has sold €1.25bn of new debt at record-low borrowing costs, capitalising on a rush of optimism over the country’s reform programme less than five years after it imposed heavy losses on bondholders.

    Wednesday’s oversubscribed sale of new 10-year euro-denominated bonds priced at a yield of 4.375 per cent as Kyiv locked in gains from last year’s big debt rally. Fund managers have piled into Ukrainian debt since the election last spring of Volodymyr Zelensky, betting that the president’s programme of economic reform will lift growth.

    Prime minister Oleksiy Honcharuk, who spoke early on Thursday on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, described the bond sale as a vote of confidence that will help further cut debt levels by replacing more expensive funding. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio has fallen to 52 per cent from about 80 per cent four years ago as the economy rebounded from the impact of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. “We issued the least expensive eurobonds in Ukraine’s history,” said Mr Honcharuk.

    Timothy Ash, an analyst at BlueBay Asset Management, said it was “extraordinary” that Ukraine was able to sell the debt at such a low yield. “A year or so ago, [Ukraine] would not have been able to come at much less than 10 per cent,” he wrote in a note to investors.

    As a general rule, investors will rush to higher-yielding debt. Halving the yield should mean lower interest. To have investors oversubscribe to your debt despite offering much less attractive financial returns than even a year ago is remarkable.

    It will also mean that the debt repayment profile of Ukraine’s debt is becoming more favourable, by replacing higher-yielding debt with lower-yielding debt as they are simultaneously cutting debt-to-GDP. How does this fit with your IMF alarmism?

    As I’ve said before, I think Ukraine is improving economically. Their main problem is now stopping the demographic bleeding(ending emigration + getting fertility rate up).

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    , @mal
  84. @Thulean Friend

    Putin appears to be softer on Germany than he should be. Maybe that’s his history of working in Germany and speaking fluent German.

    Yes, 75 years after the war, both Germany and Japan are occupied by the US. Still, German industry wants to survive, and its only chance for that involves moderately priced Russian hydrocarbons. We’ll see what prevails: subservience to the Empire or survival instinct.

  85. @silviosilver

    His skin tone is very light but his facial hair colour gives away his Semitic origins, very few Whites have black facial hair. I think most people could peg him as Middle Eastern from these features, if they didn’t know his real name.

  86. @Thulean Friend

    Here are the numbers and dynamics of Ukrainian external debt: https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/ukraine/external-debt

    Considering the most recent level reported (~$120 billion in the summer of 2019), Ukraine will go the way of Argentina: repeated defaults and then paying off the debt, anyway, to vulture funds.

    I see one interesting development, though: recently a young Ukrainian “lady” sold her virginity for 1.3 million Euro (https://www.latintimes.com/19-year-old-ukranian-sells-her-virginity-13m-58-year-old-businessman-munich-454491) to a 58-year-old German. Another one just followed suit and put her virginity up at an auction. If every Ukrainian slut before embarking on her career sells her virginity for at least $50,000, Ukraine has a chance of paying off its debt without every Ukrainian selling his second kidney. The problem with the virginity of those “ladies” is the same as with kidneys: over-supply drives the prices way down.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    , @AP
  87. mal says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Sure, and i wish Ukraine the best of luck. But they are still selling, no?

    “What worries me now a bit is complacency,” Mr Ash said, noting that the availability of cheap funding from bond markets could ease the pressure on Mr Zelensky to push through market-friendly reforms, while reducing the IMF’s leverage in Kyiv.”

    From your article. Looks like Ukrainian colonial masters are already getting ready to pull on the leash. Good luck to Ukraine, i always say.

  88. @Dreadilk

    I think China has been cautious about making too big of a footprint in Russia’s near abroad. I don’t think China exhibits intrusive ego towards Russia. I do think Russia has been unreasonable.

    In particular a big disappointment was the Russian decision to scuttle the Shanghai Cooperation Org. Russia insisted on including India and that rendered the organization useless. So much had been invested in the SCO as a platform for joint dominance over Central Asia. Russia reportedly felt it was being crowded out so it invited India (Pakistan also because India joined) to expand the platform and try to dilute China. But it was like blowing up a battleship under construction.

    China’s GDP is a lot larger. That’s not something to grouse about. Chinese economic power complements Russian geopolitical power. Who contributed financial muscle to back a Russian demand on Kyrgyzstan power brokers to end the US base lease and lose out on their lucrative cut of the base fuel supply contracts?

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
  89. @AnonFromTN

    Ukraine will go the way of Argentina

    That’s a strong claim. What is your timeframe? Would be interesting to hold you to account for this prediction.

    recently a young Ukrainian “lady” sold her virginity for 1.3 million Euro

    So she earned more in a single night than most Ukrainian men will do over an entire lifetime. Not bad. A man as rich as that could probably afford many higher-quality whores yet chose an unspoiled (according to herself) woman. Whether she lied or not is immaterial.

    1.3 million euros will last a long time for her if she plays her cards well in Ukraine. I’m reminded of e-thots/camwhores who rake in huge amounts of cash for what is really quite modest work, whereas many men slave away for pennies yet end up with nothing.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  90. @Thulean Friend

    That’s a strong claim. What is your timeframe? Would be interesting to hold you to account for this prediction.

    Same time frame as Argentina: 10 years. Talk to you in 2030. What are you prepared to bet?

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
  91. @china-russia-all-the-way

    I believe the sequence of events was that Pakistan supported by China applied to become a full member of the SCO which Russia blocked for 2 years.

    Russia then suggested India should also simultaneously become a full member.

    Interestingly India never requested full membership of the SCO but accepted when it was offered.

  92. @AnonFromTN

    Talk to you in 2030

    This statement is itself worthy of a bet.

    What are you prepared to bet?

    I’d make the bet free if you’re interested, given that I have no investments or special interest in the region. More important would be defining of what constitutes the terms of ‘ending up as Argentina’. It can’t be a vague.

    I’d define it as de facto ending up as bankrupt, i.e. postponing a debt repayment without the consent of the creditors. This is what happened to Argentina late last year:

    But on Friday the government unilaterally postponed until August paying some 9 billion dollars in maturities, which resulted in the country’s debt being downgraded by rating agencies Fitch and S&P, who consider it in selective default.

    Note the word unilaterally. Negotiating better debt repayment terms is something countries do all the time with their creditors. Postponing repayments unilaterally without the input of creditors is treated as a de facto selective default. I do not consider realistic for Ukraine over the next ten years barring a huge and unforeseen external event (invasion, massive global economic depression etc). That would be my criteria as ‘ending up as Argentina’.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  93. @Thulean Friend

    Sounds good. I have no investments in Ukraine, either (personally, I wouldn’t invest a penny there), but I do have special interest: I had to evacuate my 89-years old mother from Lugansk (Lugansk People’s Republic) to Russia, and then to the US, because the city was bombed and shelled by Kiev regime in 2014. To give you an idea of the scale, the school I went to was hit by a bomb, and the library where I borrowed books when I was in school was hit by a shell. Thank goodness, Donbass freedom fighters pushed Ukie army far enough from the city, so it can’t shell it anymore, and made their airspace a no-fly zone for Ukie planes. Unlike other cities closer to the front lines, Lugansk is no longer a war zone.

    Default is a good benchmark, I agree. If I live long enough, let’s compare notes in 2030. Otherwise, let’s compare notes earlier if living until 2030 does not seem feasible. But no earlier than 2025 – economic processes are slow, like proverbial mills of God. However, let’s accept WWIII as the only force majeure. Global economic crisis is coming, likely before 2025, and countries are differentially exposed to it: prudent ones are better protected than stupid ones. As protection against it is the responsibility of countries’ governments, exposure cannot be considered force majeure.

    • Agree: Thulean Friend, Dreadilk
    • Replies: @Dreadilk
    , @AP
  94. Dreadilk says:
    @AnonFromTN

    I will take the same bet. Ukraine 2030 will be worse off place than Ukraine 2020. Provided they are still around as a country and still looking towards west.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  95. @Dreadilk

    Even if all rightful owners take what belongs to them, ~1/6th (the part that Khmelnitsky joined to Russia) will remain. Whether they choose to call it Ukraine or a name not as defamed and soiled, is a different matter. As Ukrainian joke puts it, “whoever remains last pays off the debt”.

  96. AP says:
    @AnonFromTN

    the city was bombed and shelled by Kiev regime in 2014. To give you an idea of the scale, the school I went to was hit by a bomb, and the library where I borrowed books when I was in school was hit by a shell. Thank goodness, Donbass freedom fighters pushed Ukie army far enough from the city, so it can’t shell it anymore, and made their airspace a no-fly zone for Ukie planes. Unlike other cities closer to the front lines, Lugansk is no longer a war zone.

    If there were no fighters, there would have been no bombing, and the city would have been as peaceful as Kharkiv.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  97. AP says:
    @AnonFromTN

    Here are the numbers and dynamics of Ukrainian external debt: https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/ukraine/external-debt

    Same website shows debt as % of GDP going down dramatically:

    https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/ukraine/external-debt–of-nominal-gdp

    (it ends at 2018 but downward trend continues)

    I see one interesting development, though: recently a young Ukrainian “lady” sold her virginity for 1.3 million Euro

    1. She lives in the USA.

    2. Naturally, she is from eastern Ukraine – Kharkiv. (I could make a rude joke about Donbas girls, who are more extreme from this perspective, but won’t)

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  98. @AP

    If there were no fighters, there would have been no bombing, and the city would have been as peaceful as Kharkiv.

    That’s total BS that Ukie propagandists repeat ad nauseam to justify criminal Kiev regime. The area where my mom lived had no fighters ever. There were 40-50 multi-apartment buildings, two schools, 4 or 5 kindergartens, some grocery stores, pharmacies, and one movie theater. The area was shelled by war criminals relentlessly until they were kicked out far enough from the city. What convinced my mom to move was that the window in one of the rooms of her two-bedroom apartment was shattered by nearby explosion of a shell launched by Ukies.

    The people of Donbass would never forget or forgive Ukie actions. That’s why Donbass would never return to the country run by their tormentors.

  99. @AP

    Yea, as the saying goes, “you can take the boy out the hood but you can’t take the hood out the boy”. Same is true for girls. She was from Ukraine. That tells it all.

  100. AP says:

    That’s total BS that Ukie propagandists repeat ad nauseam to justify criminal Kiev regime. The area where my mom lived had no fighters ever.

    So you claim. We know what your claims are worth. Remember when you insisted there were no US auto plants in the USA, despite living near a massive one?

    There were 40-50 multi-apartment buildings, two schools, 4 or 5 kindergartens, some grocery stores, pharmacies, and one movie theater. The area was shelled by war criminals relentlessly until they were kicked out far enough from the city.

    Rebel fighters needed such buildings for cover.

    If there really had been no fighters the Ukrainian military would have just taken over the territory.

    It’s a Sovok pattern, btw. During World War II, Sovok partisans used to cause trouble in Belarussian villagers, to provoke a German response, for the purpose of turning the population against the Germans. In this way Soviet loyalty was achieved, at the price of 100,00os of dead Belarussians.

    The people of Donbass would never forget or forgive Ukie actions. That’s why Donbass would never return to the country run by their tormentors.

    I certainly hope so!

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  101. Dmitry says:
    @silviosilver

    This appearance looks like 30-40 degree latitude North people. So parts of Northern India, and the Northern half of countries like Pakistan.

    A lot of Indians are from much further South latitudes than 30 degrees, which is the populations which usually have a permanently dark skin (rather than skin which changes between the seasons).

    Also Pakistan has a mix of people native to the region, and also many millions of immigrants from further South. The native people (as opposed to Muslim immigrants from South India) of Pakistan will have lighter skin out of the sun, in the winter, but facial features are distinguishable compared to European people.

    AK reckons he’s witnessed it, but I’m still pretty skeptical that Polish girls would be gaga over Indians. Gypsies are basically Indians, and most girls in the Balkans wouldn’t be caught dead with a gypo.

    If you are good looking, charming for women, and rich – Indian man? Then you can easily find women of any nationality who will be interested in you. There will be millions of women in India, or in Poland, in Russia, in France, in Egypt, in America, in England – who would potentially be interested in you.

    And if you are not good looking, not charming for women, and not perhaps rich – Indian man? Then you won’t.

    On the other hand, if you want to scam this people – who are not good looking, not charming, and not perhaps rich – by selling ebooks, which you will use to buy prostitutes in Ukraine? Yes you can tell them that Polish women will love you for some arbitrary reason, and you should buy my ebook to plan for your trip to the “utopia” of Poland.

  102. @AP

    If there really had been no fighters the Ukrainian military would have just taken over the territory.

    Freedom fighters were on the front lines, preventing the scum from entering the city. So, the scum, frustrated by its own combat ineptitude, shelled residential areas. Exactly like their Banderite predecessors, they are “heroes” only murdering unarmed civilians, but pathetic cowards when they meet armed resistance.

    • Replies: @AP
  103. AP says:
    @AnonFromTN

    Freedom fighters were on the front lines, preventing the scum from entering the city.

    But the city was on the front lines before, because as you stated, the “freedom fighters” pushed the Ukrainians away.

    For example Luhansk airport:

    So there were fighters within the city.

    Exactly like their Banderite predecessors, they are “heroes” only murdering unarmed civilians

    This is true of any partisan forces. However in addition to murdering civilians, Banderists inflicted more casualties on Soviet military forces than did the Chechens on Russian forces during the Chechen wars.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    , @Dreadilk
  104. @Vishnugupta

    Not the chronology according to this source

    Russia wasn’t content with merely blocking the SCO’s economic agenda. Since 2011, Moscow has been pushing for expansion of the SCO by way of inviting India, a country with which it has had traditionally friendly relations. Moscow argued that Russia, China, and India were already working trilaterally, and that this innovation would only increase the clout of the SCO.

    China fought back against this idea for a while, as the admission of India did not fit with its plans for a Sino-Russian condominium for Central Asia.

    https://carnegie.ru/commentary/71350

  105. @AP

    For example Luhansk airport:

    FYI, Lugansk is more than 30 km (20 mi) across. Lugansk airport, where the front line was, is at ~25 min taxi ride from where my mother lived (I know it well, took that ride many times).

    This is true of any partisan forces.

    Ukrainian army is not a partisan force. It is a regular army of an entity pretending to be a state.

  106. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AltSerrice

    Is the West static due to them approaching their genetic ceiling, or for other reasons–such as the opiod crisis among US whites?

  107. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Is the West static due to them approaching their genetic ceiling, or for other reasons–such as the opiod crisis among US whites?

  108. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AP

    I also can’t imagine ones looking like gypsies being popular.

    They might be if they actually give off the impression that they’re smart or at least relatively smart. After all, there are some smart darker-skinned Indians out there.

  109. Dreadilk says:
    @AP

    I like how you talk about Banderist as anything but a minor footnote. Soviet machine ground them down and spit them out. If anything, seems the descendants took well after their loser ancestry.

    Edit: both sides stationed troops in cities. But it was obvious that conscripted Ukie boys were Invaders from how they acted while in Donbas.

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