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RESULTS: US Elections 2020 Predictions
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Prior to the 2020 US elections, I ran a predictions tournament. Given that the Electoral College has now formally voted, putting the matter to rest – at least so far as non-ideologues are concerned – it is now time to run the results.

***

Best performance in terms of deviation of EC votes from Biden’s 306 (see bottom of the post for a full list of 37 predictions):

  1. Jayce
  2. Not Raul
  3. Annatar
  4. Blinky Bill (archive)
  5. Gorgeous George
  6. Anatoly Karlin
  7. Supply and Demand
  8. E. Harding

Congratulations Jayce!

Annatar made his prediction after Not Raul, so Not Raul has priority. Both only got Georgia wrong. Congratulations to both of them.

Blinky Bill‘s prediction no longer appears because the Tweet it linked to has been deleted. However, Audacious Epigone – who ran a parallel predictions tournament to mine – says that he recalls Blinky also only got Georgia wrong. I will take Blinky at his word if he decides to claim second place here, since he posted his prediction ahead of both Not Raul and Annatar. Preserved comment on archive.org confirms he is in joint second place with Annatar and Not Raul, and overall 2nd place if sorting by precedence. UPDATE – However, as was pointed out, Blinky Bill didn’t call the congressional districts in Nebraska and Maine, so despite getting the EC vote total correct, he did so less well than Annatar and Not Raul; as such, he drops to fourth place.

People who predicted <270 didn’t call the outcome. As such, close as some of them may have been at 268 and the like, there’s no point in extending it further.

“Rose glasses” to nickels, Marco de Wit, Forney, A123, LondonBob for their ironclad commitment to MAGA, some of whom continue the theme in highly agitated comments and “reacts” on various threads.

Likewise, a pair of rose glasses to Nemets for the blackpill OD. Though Nemets at least made big bucks bettin’ on Biden on PredictIt. Good strategy, that, if you gamble, bet on the side you’re not emotionally invested in, that way you won’t feel too sad about the outcome either which way.

***

Given the narrow margin that Trump won by in several states, perhaps a superior way of identifying the winner would be seeing who got the fewest number of winning voters wrong in states that they didn’t call:

  1. Not Raul – Georgia (+11,779) = 11,779
  2. Annatar – Georgia (+11,779) = 11,779
  3. Anatoly Karlin – Arizona (+10,457), Georgia (+11,779) = 22,236
  4. Blinky Bill – Georgia (+11,779), NE-2 (+22,091) / ME-2 (+27,996) = 61,866
  5. Jayce – Arizona (+10,457), Georgia (+11,779) / North Carolina (+74,481) = 96,717
  6. Gorgeous George – Minnesota (+233,012), Pennsylvania (+81,660), Wisconsin (+20,608) / North Carolina (+74,481) = 409,761
  7. E. Harding – Florida (+371,686), North Carolina (+74,481) = 446,167
  8. Supply and Demand – Arizona (+10,457), Georgia (+10,457), Colorado (~+440k), NE-2, New Mexico (~+100k) / Iowa (~138k), ME-2 = ~700k

Joint congratulations to Not Raul and Annatar on joint first place out of 37 contestants! (Blinky Bill didn’t call the congressional districts in Nebraska and Maine, as was just pointed out to me).

Also congrats to E. Harding for the impressive Georgia call.

All things considered, the people who predicted around 268 generally didn’t do badly either, it was mostly tight states that they were getting wrong.

***

Slightly regret not holding a competition on the raw percentage of the vote, since I’d have had a good chance of winning it [dated Tweet] (though Annatar might have cinched it):

Biden 51.10%
Trump 47.07%

This is a 0.42% point deviation from the actual current results of 51.31% for Biden, and 46.86% for Trump, as of today’s Wikipedia page on the elections. This placed me 2nd out of 64 people (see right) who participated in such a predictions tournament at the blog of Alexander Kireev, a Russian elections blogger. (Or outright first, had he gone with the current results from The Green Papers where Biden is now at 51.27% and Trump is at 46.82%).

On that note, I should point out that Kireev’s commentariat – just as during the 2016 elections – was extremely accurate on the ultimate result, as could be expected of informed Russian commenters not particularly beset by TDS and MAGA hopium. They predicted an average of 51.3% for Biden (spot on) and 45.8% for Trump (wrong by 1% point).

Seva Bashirov also compiled a “consensus map” of theor predictions from the first 42 participants in the states-level competition – everything correct except the Georgia upset:

***

Here are your predictions of how many EC votes Biden would get (let me know if I mistyped anything):

  • nickels – 173
  • Matt Forney – 207
  • Marco de Wit – 209
  • A123 – 218
  • LondonBob – 218 (2)
  • Raphael – 226
  • botafeza – 229 (2)
  • Dreadilk – 229
  • e. york – 232
  • Paulina – 233
  • AltSerrice – 236
  • Svevlad – 238
  • Thorfinnsson – 249
  • davidgmillsatty – 256
  • AP – 258
  • Excal – 258 (3)
  • jeppo – 258 (2)
  • Sean9292 – 259
  • Tyler Durden – 259 (3)
  • Vendetta – 259 (2)
  • The Alarmist – 268 (2)
  • Auferstanden – 268 (3)
  • Patto – 268 (4)
  • Tusk – 268
    • 270 TO WIN
  • Supply and Demand – 271 [-35]
  • Anatoly Karlin – 279 [-27]
  • Gorgeous George – 280 [-26]
  • Annatar – 290 (3) [-16]
  • Blinky Bill – 290 [-16]
  • Not Raul – 290 (2) [-16]
  • Jayce – 294 [-12]
    • BIDEN ACTUAL RESULT – 306
  • E. Harding – 350 [+44]
  • protoneutype – 375
  • Nemets – 376
  • In Catilinam – 407
  • zepplin – 413

***

 
• Category: Ideology • Tags: Prediction, United States, US Elections 2020 
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  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

    Commenting rules. Please note that anonymous comments are not allowed.

  2. • Thanks: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Bill Jones
    @E. Harding

    The great James Corbett has been using the Archive.org copy of pieces he references (usually evil-doers" instead of the original site for two reasons:
    1. The tendency for memory-holing.
    2. Why give the bastards the traffic?

    He's been talking about the perils of digital data for a while under the rubric of The digital Library of Alexandria is Burning:



    https://www.corbettreport.com/episode-384-the-library-of-alexandria-is-on-fire/

    , @Not Raul
    @E. Harding

    I actually beat Blinky Bill; because I also got the congressional districts in Nebraska and Maine right.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

  3. “Rose glasses” to nickels, Marco de Wit, Forney, A123, LondonBob for their ironclad commitment to MAGA, some of whom continue the theme in highly agitated comments and “reacts” on various threads.

    Objective Fact is crystal clear “truth glass” that Trump won. Thus, objectively true fact is not agitated in any way. I happily award those who support Führer-Elect Biden their memorial “Death Rose Glasses”.

    To give credit where it is due… AK has excellent timing on when to skip the U.S.

    The fascist supporters of Führer Biden keep failing every time they try to declare their fraud successful. There is no hope for Führer Biden and his Nazicrats if he steals the Oval Office. Federal Government relies on the consent of the governed. Führer Biden cannot possibly cope with Civil Disobedience on 85%+ of the land, including 50%+ of the states, by 70MM+ Patriots.

    [MORE]

    The best case scenario is that Führer Biden cowers, powerless and supine, in the Oval Office for four years. Every other scenario is worse. The more the Führer sends SS Gestapo goons to use force, the more disobedience will magnify.

    Who wants to start a pool on what Mentally Ill Führer Biden nukes in a fit of drooling incoherent rage gibbering?

    — Iran
    — Irkutsk
    — Iraq
    — Iowa

    Everything beginning with the letter “I” is in danger.

    PEACE 😇
     

    • Replies: @Supply and Demand
    @A123



    Mr. Trump has been Fired, A123.

    Replies: @A123

    , @sudden death
    @A123



    Pure excellence at Führer bunker circa 1945 reality perception levels :)

    Replies: @Astuteobservor II

  4. @A123

    “Rose glasses” to nickels, Marco de Wit, Forney, A123, LondonBob for their ironclad commitment to MAGA, some of whom continue the theme in highly agitated comments and “reacts” on various threads.
     
    Objective Fact is crystal clear "truth glass" that Trump won. Thus, objectively true fact is not agitated in any way. I happily award those who support Führer-Elect Biden their memorial "Death Rose Glasses".

    To give credit where it is due... AK has excellent timing on when to skip the U.S.

    The fascist supporters of Führer Biden keep failing every time they try to declare their fraud successful. There is no hope for Führer Biden and his Nazicrats if he steals the Oval Office. Federal Government relies on the consent of the governed. Führer Biden cannot possibly cope with Civil Disobedience on 85%+ of the land, including 50%+ of the states, by 70MM+ Patriots.



    The best case scenario is that Führer Biden cowers, powerless and supine, in the Oval Office for four years. Every other scenario is worse. The more the Führer sends SS Gestapo goons to use force, the more disobedience will magnify.

    Who wants to start a pool on what Mentally Ill Führer Biden nukes in a fit of drooling incoherent rage gibbering?

    -- Iran
    -- Irkutsk
    -- Iraq
    -- Iowa

    Everything beginning with the letter "I" is in danger.

    PEACE 😇
     
    https://cdn.creators.com/199/292600/292600_image.jpg

    Replies: @Supply and Demand, @sudden death

    [MORE]

    Mr. Trump has been Fired, A123.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Supply and Demand



    CuckSupply & NoDemand,

    Sorry. Your Mr. Hyper-Cuck, Führer Biden, has lost.

    You need to accept the ball-less shame of his testosterone free defeat.

    PEACE 😇

  5. Georgia going Dem was blaringly predictable: the state trended D in 2008 and 2012, had a strong D trend in the 2016 election, got automatic voter registration following the 2016 election, Stacey Abrams got more votes than Hillary Clinton despite massively underperforming her in the rural areas of the state, the rural areas showed reasonably strong evidence that they would not be as Republican in 2020 as in 2018, and the Atlanta suburbs showed no sign of stopping their rapid blue trend. Ultimately, Atlanta’s suburbs saw the some of the strongest 2016-2020 Dem shifts in the country, including the single strongest one (Henry County).

    My Florida misfire was just me underestimating the Latino tidal wave of rage. There were three Trump 2016->Biden 2020 counties in Florida; the non-Hispanic White vote swung towards Biden.

    My North Carolina misfire was based on the state having trended D in every election since 2004 and suspecting that the decent Republican turnout seen in the early voting would be countered by Dem trends in the White vote around Raleigh and Charlotte, as well as in the college towns – I was correct here, but not enough. I also was too dismissive of the early voting due to assuming pollsters fixed their mistakes since 2016 and that 2020 was too unique a year to make early voting inferences off of – I was wrong on both counts. Turnout was simply too good for the GOP for the Dems to flip the state, thus resulting in the Senate race and presidential race there going for the Rs, completely contradicting the polling. I certainly did not expect the state would trend Republican in 2020.

    • Disagree: GazaPlanet
    • Replies: @Excal
    @E. Harding

    Georgia going D is probably quite soon, but I didn't think the numbers were there quite yet -- and I still don't.

    However, this election has reminded us that when things are close enough, somebody will try to tip the scales if they think they can get away with it. Clearly the Dems in Georgia were very, very hungry, and unbound by scruples, and they are probably going to get away with it.

    Next time, they'll get away with it even harder, especially with Abrams as governor; and they'll probably have the numbers anyway, just like in California.

  6. @Supply and Demand
    @A123



    Mr. Trump has been Fired, A123.

    Replies: @A123

    [MORE]

    CuckSupply & NoDemand,

    Sorry. Your Mr. Hyper-Cuck, Führer Biden, has lost.

    You need to accept the ball-less shame of his testosterone free defeat.

    PEACE 😇

  7. @A123

    “Rose glasses” to nickels, Marco de Wit, Forney, A123, LondonBob for their ironclad commitment to MAGA, some of whom continue the theme in highly agitated comments and “reacts” on various threads.
     
    Objective Fact is crystal clear "truth glass" that Trump won. Thus, objectively true fact is not agitated in any way. I happily award those who support Führer-Elect Biden their memorial "Death Rose Glasses".

    To give credit where it is due... AK has excellent timing on when to skip the U.S.

    The fascist supporters of Führer Biden keep failing every time they try to declare their fraud successful. There is no hope for Führer Biden and his Nazicrats if he steals the Oval Office. Federal Government relies on the consent of the governed. Führer Biden cannot possibly cope with Civil Disobedience on 85%+ of the land, including 50%+ of the states, by 70MM+ Patriots.



    The best case scenario is that Führer Biden cowers, powerless and supine, in the Oval Office for four years. Every other scenario is worse. The more the Führer sends SS Gestapo goons to use force, the more disobedience will magnify.

    Who wants to start a pool on what Mentally Ill Führer Biden nukes in a fit of drooling incoherent rage gibbering?

    -- Iran
    -- Irkutsk
    -- Iraq
    -- Iowa

    Everything beginning with the letter "I" is in danger.

    PEACE 😇
     
    https://cdn.creators.com/199/292600/292600_image.jpg

    Replies: @Supply and Demand, @sudden death

    [MORE]

    Pure excellence at Führer bunker circa 1945 reality perception levels 🙂

    • Agree: Supply and Demand
    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
    @sudden death



    The zionist anon is just living up to his potential. Master spreader of mind numbing shit.

  8. @sudden death
    @A123



    Pure excellence at Führer bunker circa 1945 reality perception levels :)

    Replies: @Astuteobservor II

    [MORE]

    The zionist anon is just living up to his potential. Master spreader of mind numbing shit.

  9. Somebody should quote Forney’s MAGA-cope posts here.

    • Agree: Supply and Demand
  10. So how many of the worthies above predicted the massive electoral fraud? (Count me in the cope gang, lol.)

    • Replies: @Supply and Demand
    @Pericles

    MIGApedes like you are inevitably sore losers when the facts are present.

    Replies: @Pericles, @A123

    , @Jayce
    @Pericles

    My take was just more or less what I figured as far back as 2017.

    , @Excal
    @Pericles

    I predicted fraud and lawsuits in Pennsylvania, but I was very naïve about just how widespread this would be, and how strong. I was imagining Florida 2000-style stuff in Pennsylvania, not Chicago 1960 in almost every swing state.

  11. @E. Harding
    Blinky Bill only got Georgia wrong:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20201103023229/https://www.unz.com/akarlin/predictions-us-elections-2020/

    Replies: @Bill Jones, @Not Raul

    The great James Corbett has been using the Archive.org copy of pieces he references (usually evil-doers” instead of the original site for two reasons:
    1. The tendency for memory-holing.
    2. Why give the bastards the traffic?

    He’s been talking about the perils of digital data for a while under the rubric of The digital Library of Alexandria is Burning:

    https://www.corbettreport.com/episode-384-the-library-of-alexandria-is-on-fire/

  12. No offense, Anatoly, but you worked your ass off to put all this together, but to what end? There were such tilts via cheating in who knows how many states/commonwealths, and so how do you factor that stuff in? Did any of the contestants bake a little (or a lot) of election cheating into their predictions?

    Hey, how’s Mr. Martyanov these days? He doesn’t seem to dip his oar in the water here much lately. Love to hear his take on this, I’ve gotten to where I prefer outsiders’ view on this horror show, he’s one of them, you’re another, of course. I like that guy, well, his writing anyway, can’t say I ever met him. Here’s wishing Andrei well.

    • Troll: Supply and Demand
    • Replies: @Denis
    @Jim Christian


    No offense, Anatoly, but you worked your ass off to put all this together, but to what end? There were such tilts via cheating in who knows how many states/commonwealths, and so how do you factor that stuff in? Did any of the contestants bake a little (or a lot) of election cheating into their predictions?
     
    Well, personally I read these because I find them fun, and I don't think there's any pressure on anyone to participate if they don't. If people you'd rather cope forever there's nothing stopping you.
  13. @Pericles
    So how many of the worthies above predicted the massive electoral fraud? (Count me in the cope gang, lol.)

    Replies: @Supply and Demand, @Jayce, @Excal

    MIGApedes like you are inevitably sore losers when the facts are present.

    • Troll: Jim Christian
    • Replies: @Pericles
    @Supply and Demand

    #NotMyPresident(*) #Resistance etc

    In this case, the fraud was just too massive and blatant to accept with the rueful smile of the loser so I won't. Lifelong learning, buddy.

    * Literally not mine, but you know what I mean. I'm still a subject of the US empire.

    , @A123
    @Supply and Demand

    Added to Blocked Commenters List for:

    -- Trolling
    -- Cucking for Führer BidenCuck

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

  14. @Supply and Demand
    @Pericles

    MIGApedes like you are inevitably sore losers when the facts are present.

    Replies: @Pericles, @A123

    #NotMyPresident(*) #Resistance etc

    In this case, the fraud was just too massive and blatant to accept with the rueful smile of the loser so I won’t. Lifelong learning, buddy.

    * Literally not mine, but you know what I mean. I’m still a subject of the US empire.

  15. @Supply and Demand
    @Pericles

    MIGApedes like you are inevitably sore losers when the facts are present.

    Replies: @Pericles, @A123

    Added to Blocked Commenters List for:

    — Trolling
    — Cucking for Führer BidenCuck

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @A123

    Just out of curiosity - so assuming Biden only won thanks to massive fraud, how exactly does that make him the cuck for... cucking Trump out of the Presidency?

    If true that sounds Chad as fuck to me.



    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmJhlYsW0AIM8yx.jpg

    Replies: @Jim Christian, @A123, @Supply and Demand, @Pericles, @A123

  16. @A123
    @Supply and Demand

    Added to Blocked Commenters List for:

    -- Trolling
    -- Cucking for Führer BidenCuck

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    Just out of curiosity – so assuming Biden only won thanks to massive fraud, how exactly does that make him the cuck for… cucking Trump out of the Presidency?

    If true that sounds Chad as fuck to me.

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @Jim Christian
    @Anatoly Karlin


    how exactly does that make him the cuck for… cucking Trump out of the Presidency? If true that sounds Chad as fuck to me.
     
    Agreed. The fraud nearly complete, about all you can say is to the Democrats is "Well played". If the courts reverse things, shame, shame. Courts are part of the election process now. Each party had better get good at. Anatoly, is there CNN at that prison camp for the skinny MAGAs?

    Replies: @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle

    , @A123
    @Anatoly Karlin

    AK,

    With respect, you are over analyzing the situation.

    I have been intentionally over using the term because TROLL SupplyCuck has one word vocabulary across multiple threads.

    I was hoping that bludgeoning down TROLL SupplyCuck with his own one word rhetoric would get him to shut-up. Alas, as an ultra-low IQ TROLL, SupplyCuck missed the point entirely. SupplyCuck is too stupid to do anything other the be a Cuck for his Führer Biden, hence I have added him to my Blocked Commenters list.

    I anticipate using the term "cuck" much less in future as I will not be reading or responding to SupplyCuck's cuck-gibberish.

    PEACE 😇

    , @Supply and Demand
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Like all conservatives, he thinks winning is "cucking".

    I suppose that is why Trump spent his entire presidency after May 2017 rat-fucking his base, bombing Assad, feeding General Flynn to the wolves, turning his back on the fine folks at Charlottesville, et cetera.

    He knows what his base wants. They want to lose.

    , @Pericles
    @Anatoly Karlin



    Just out of curiosity – so assuming Biden only won thanks to massive fraud, how exactly does that make him the cuck for… cucking Trump out of the Presidency?

     

    How? Look forward to Biden's 'prepping of the bull'.
    , @A123
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Just out of curiosity – so assuming Biden only won thanks to massive fraud, how exactly does that make him the cuck for… cucking Trump out of the Presidency?

    If true that sounds Chad as fuck to me.
     
    As it would be rude for me not to address the question... I think I have a good way to explain the conundrum.

    The proposition is that HIGHER # = MORE CHADNESS. Biden has More Chadness because he got the Higher # in the Election.
    ___

    Let us look at another situation, the number of beef cattle in the U.S.
     
    https://www.beefmagazine.com/sites/beefmagazine.com/files/April-2017-BEEF_6_04-harlan-fig1.png
     

    Cows had Maximum Chadness in 1975, because they had the Highest # in the year.

    Let us score both of them using the latest available values via the HIGHER # test:
    -- More Chad = Cows @ 90MM actual head in 2017
    -- Less Chad = Biden @ ~60MM actual votes + ~10MM fraudulent votes

    Call me unimpressed by Biden's number. Even with the fraud he is still much less Chad than cows.
    ____

    To make Biden's status as an un-Chad Beta even more profound, consider how both Cows and Biden obtained their numbers. Neither earned their count.

    An outside much more powerful ALPHA-CHAD force arranged for those numbers, and anything given can be taken away. Both Cows and Biden are un-Chad pawns, helpless Beta's adrift in a hostile world outside their control.

    PEACE 😇
  17. @Anatoly Karlin
    @A123

    Just out of curiosity - so assuming Biden only won thanks to massive fraud, how exactly does that make him the cuck for... cucking Trump out of the Presidency?

    If true that sounds Chad as fuck to me.



    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmJhlYsW0AIM8yx.jpg

    Replies: @Jim Christian, @A123, @Supply and Demand, @Pericles, @A123

    how exactly does that make him the cuck for… cucking Trump out of the Presidency? If true that sounds Chad as fuck to me.

    Agreed. The fraud nearly complete, about all you can say is to the Democrats is “Well played”. If the courts reverse things, shame, shame. Courts are part of the election process now. Each party had better get good at. Anatoly, is there CNN at that prison camp for the skinny MAGAs?

    • Replies: @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle
    @Jim Christian

    I think the question to ask is: will the prison camps for the skinny MAGAs resemble airport terminals? As that is the only place people watch CNN since they are unable to escape from the forced indoctrination piped 24/7 from the Big Brother terminals.

  18. Who cares about the elections, let alone predictions? We just saw that it does not matter how they vote, it only matters who counts the votes. Perfect democracy. Comrade Stalin and parteigenosse Hitler would approve wholeheartedly.

    • Replies: @Supply and Demand
    @AnonFromTN

    You sound like another sore loser. If your map wasn't filled out with appropriate predictions of election fraud, you're a naive loser at that.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

  19. @Anatoly Karlin
    @A123

    Just out of curiosity - so assuming Biden only won thanks to massive fraud, how exactly does that make him the cuck for... cucking Trump out of the Presidency?

    If true that sounds Chad as fuck to me.



    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmJhlYsW0AIM8yx.jpg

    Replies: @Jim Christian, @A123, @Supply and Demand, @Pericles, @A123

    AK,

    With respect, you are over analyzing the situation.

    I have been intentionally over using the term because TROLL SupplyCuck has one word vocabulary across multiple threads.

    I was hoping that bludgeoning down TROLL SupplyCuck with his own one word rhetoric would get him to shut-up. Alas, as an ultra-low IQ TROLL, SupplyCuck missed the point entirely. SupplyCuck is too stupid to do anything other the be a Cuck for his Führer Biden, hence I have added him to my Blocked Commenters list.

    I anticipate using the term “cuck” much less in future as I will not be reading or responding to SupplyCuck’s cuck-gibberish.

    PEACE 😇

  20. @Anatoly Karlin
    @A123

    Just out of curiosity - so assuming Biden only won thanks to massive fraud, how exactly does that make him the cuck for... cucking Trump out of the Presidency?

    If true that sounds Chad as fuck to me.



    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmJhlYsW0AIM8yx.jpg

    Replies: @Jim Christian, @A123, @Supply and Demand, @Pericles, @A123

    Like all conservatives, he thinks winning is “cucking”.

    I suppose that is why Trump spent his entire presidency after May 2017 rat-fucking his base, bombing Assad, feeding General Flynn to the wolves, turning his back on the fine folks at Charlottesville, et cetera.

    He knows what his base wants. They want to lose.

  21. @AnonFromTN
    Who cares about the elections, let alone predictions? We just saw that it does not matter how they vote, it only matters who counts the votes. Perfect democracy. Comrade Stalin and parteigenosse Hitler would approve wholeheartedly.

    Replies: @Supply and Demand

    You sound like another sore loser. If your map wasn’t filled out with appropriate predictions of election fraud, you’re a naive loser at that.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @Supply and Demand

    I must disappoint you: I don’t do predictions when sharpers play. Enjoy corrupt senile half-corpse, the “president” the likes of you deserve.

    Replies: @Supply and Demand

  22. @Supply and Demand
    @AnonFromTN

    You sound like another sore loser. If your map wasn't filled out with appropriate predictions of election fraud, you're a naive loser at that.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

    I must disappoint you: I don’t do predictions when sharpers play. Enjoy corrupt senile half-corpse, the “president” the likes of you deserve.

    • Replies: @Supply and Demand
    @AnonFromTN

    I emigrated to China 5 years ago. I certainly will! We're all about to get very rich off the Yeltsin-ing of America.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

  23. Must I post this map every time? Pink=Biden doing better than Hillary in the two-party vote. Some fraud.

    • Thanks: Not Raul
    • Replies: @A123
    @E. Harding

    Trump improved everywhere. Biden won 50% of the counties won by Obama.

    Massively more votes with fewer counties won (far exceeding population growth), requires both:

    — Statistically impossible turnout, plus
    — Statistically impossible vote split Trump/Biden

    It can only be explained by fraud concentrated in a few locations.

    PEACE 😇



    https://twitter.com/MarkFinchem/status/1339248281117806592?s=20
     
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2020/live_map_house.png

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

  24. @E. Harding
    Must I post this map every time? Pink=Biden doing better than Hillary in the two-party vote. Some fraud.

    https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/TREND/pe2020swg.png

    Replies: @A123

    Trump improved everywhere. Biden won 50% of the counties won by Obama.

    Massively more votes with fewer counties won (far exceeding population growth), requires both:

    — Statistically impossible turnout, plus
    — Statistically impossible vote split Trump/Biden

    It can only be explained by fraud concentrated in a few locations.

    PEACE 😇

    [MORE]


     

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @A123

    As someone put this well in some other thread, the people in the US fall into two categories: those who think that the elections were rigged and it’s good, and those who think that the elections were rigged, and it’s bad.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @A123

  25. @AnonFromTN
    @Supply and Demand

    I must disappoint you: I don’t do predictions when sharpers play. Enjoy corrupt senile half-corpse, the “president” the likes of you deserve.

    Replies: @Supply and Demand

    I emigrated to China 5 years ago. I certainly will! We’re all about to get very rich off the Yeltsin-ing of America.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @Supply and Demand


    I emigrated to China 5 years ago. I certainly will! We’re all about to get very rich off the Yeltsin-ing of America.
     
    Good for you. I live in the US and I don’t want the country to become a shithole, like the country where election fraud made corrupt senile half-corpse president before, Zimbabwe.
  26. @Jim Christian
    @Anatoly Karlin


    how exactly does that make him the cuck for… cucking Trump out of the Presidency? If true that sounds Chad as fuck to me.
     
    Agreed. The fraud nearly complete, about all you can say is to the Democrats is "Well played". If the courts reverse things, shame, shame. Courts are part of the election process now. Each party had better get good at. Anatoly, is there CNN at that prison camp for the skinny MAGAs?

    Replies: @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle

    I think the question to ask is: will the prison camps for the skinny MAGAs resemble airport terminals? As that is the only place people watch CNN since they are unable to escape from the forced indoctrination piped 24/7 from the Big Brother terminals.

  27. @Pericles
    So how many of the worthies above predicted the massive electoral fraud? (Count me in the cope gang, lol.)

    Replies: @Supply and Demand, @Jayce, @Excal

    My take was just more or less what I figured as far back as 2017.

  28. In terms of predicting states I relied upon the following sets of data:

    1. Demographic composition of state
    2. 2012-2016 trends
    3. Trends in voter registration by party
    4. Polling
    5. Early Voting Data.

    For example I predicted PA and AZ would go for Biden and NC and FL based mainly off the early vote, Trump was doing well in NC and FL, poorly in AZ and PA.

    The one state I got wrong was GA which does not have voter registration by party for whatever reason, as a result there was no way to know whether more Republicans or democrats had registered since 2016 and who was winning the early vote relative to 2016.

    Overall the election outcome was fairly easy to predict, one had to take into account the systematic underestimation of the non-college white vote for Republicans though which has been a consistent feature since 2014, it was easy to see polls would underestimate Trump in a lot of states with a lot of non-college whites.

    In Iowa for example Republicans have outperformed their polls in 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020, 4 cycles in a row because polls can’t accurately capture the voting preferences of non-college whites.

    I factored that into my analysis, hence why I had NC and FL going for Trump, the early voting data was there and also I assumed polls would mis-represent the voting intentions of non-college whites once again.

    Trump lost ultimately because he collapsed among college whites relative to 2016, non-college whites remained with him, in some areas he did even better like Mahoning and Lorain counties in Ohio.

  29. big bucks bettin

    Pure gold, thanks. Right even down to the syllables (and cadence).

  30. @Supply and Demand
    @AnonFromTN

    I emigrated to China 5 years ago. I certainly will! We're all about to get very rich off the Yeltsin-ing of America.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

    I emigrated to China 5 years ago. I certainly will! We’re all about to get very rich off the Yeltsin-ing of America.

    Good for you. I live in the US and I don’t want the country to become a shithole, like the country where election fraud made corrupt senile half-corpse president before, Zimbabwe.

  31. @E. Harding
    Blinky Bill only got Georgia wrong:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20201103023229/https://www.unz.com/akarlin/predictions-us-elections-2020/

    Replies: @Bill Jones, @Not Raul

    I actually beat Blinky Bill; because I also got the congressional districts in Nebraska and Maine right.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Not Raul

    Thanks, time for another fix.

    In this case, you and Annatar are the undisputed joint winners. Congrats!

  32. @Not Raul
    @E. Harding

    I actually beat Blinky Bill; because I also got the congressional districts in Nebraska and Maine right.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    Thanks, time for another fix.

    In this case, you and Annatar are the undisputed joint winners. Congrats!

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
    • Thanks: Not Raul
  33. @Jim Christian
    No offense, Anatoly, but you worked your ass off to put all this together, but to what end? There were such tilts via cheating in who knows how many states/commonwealths, and so how do you factor that stuff in? Did any of the contestants bake a little (or a lot) of election cheating into their predictions?

    Hey, how's Mr. Martyanov these days? He doesn't seem to dip his oar in the water here much lately. Love to hear his take on this, I've gotten to where I prefer outsiders' view on this horror show, he's one of them, you're another, of course. I like that guy, well, his writing anyway, can't say I ever met him. Here's wishing Andrei well.

    Replies: @Denis

    No offense, Anatoly, but you worked your ass off to put all this together, but to what end? There were such tilts via cheating in who knows how many states/commonwealths, and so how do you factor that stuff in? Did any of the contestants bake a little (or a lot) of election cheating into their predictions?

    Well, personally I read these because I find them fun, and I don’t think there’s any pressure on anyone to participate if they don’t. If people you’d rather cope forever there’s nothing stopping you.

  34. @Anatoly Karlin
    @A123

    Just out of curiosity - so assuming Biden only won thanks to massive fraud, how exactly does that make him the cuck for... cucking Trump out of the Presidency?

    If true that sounds Chad as fuck to me.



    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmJhlYsW0AIM8yx.jpg

    Replies: @Jim Christian, @A123, @Supply and Demand, @Pericles, @A123

    Just out of curiosity – so assuming Biden only won thanks to massive fraud, how exactly does that make him the cuck for… cucking Trump out of the Presidency?

    How? Look forward to Biden’s ‘prepping of the bull’.

  35. @Anatoly Karlin
    @A123

    Just out of curiosity - so assuming Biden only won thanks to massive fraud, how exactly does that make him the cuck for... cucking Trump out of the Presidency?

    If true that sounds Chad as fuck to me.



    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmJhlYsW0AIM8yx.jpg

    Replies: @Jim Christian, @A123, @Supply and Demand, @Pericles, @A123

    Just out of curiosity – so assuming Biden only won thanks to massive fraud, how exactly does that make him the cuck for… cucking Trump out of the Presidency?

    If true that sounds Chad as fuck to me.

    As it would be rude for me not to address the question… I think I have a good way to explain the conundrum.

    The proposition is that HIGHER # = MORE CHADNESS. Biden has More Chadness because he got the Higher # in the Election.
    ___

    Let us look at another situation, the number of beef cattle in the U.S.
     

     

    Cows had Maximum Chadness in 1975, because they had the Highest # in the year.

    Let us score both of them using the latest available values via the HIGHER # test:
    More Chad = Cows @ 90MM actual head in 2017
    Less Chad = Biden @ ~60MM actual votes + ~10MM fraudulent votes

    Call me unimpressed by Biden’s number. Even with the fraud he is still much less Chad than cows.
    ____

    To make Biden’s status as an un-Chad Beta even more profound, consider how both Cows and Biden obtained their numbers. Neither earned their count.

    An outside much more powerful ALPHA-CHAD force arranged for those numbers, and anything given can be taken away. Both Cows and Biden are un-Chad pawns, helpless Beta’s adrift in a hostile world outside their control.

    PEACE 😇

  36. @A123
    @E. Harding

    Trump improved everywhere. Biden won 50% of the counties won by Obama.

    Massively more votes with fewer counties won (far exceeding population growth), requires both:

    — Statistically impossible turnout, plus
    — Statistically impossible vote split Trump/Biden

    It can only be explained by fraud concentrated in a few locations.

    PEACE 😇



    https://twitter.com/MarkFinchem/status/1339248281117806592?s=20
     
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2020/live_map_house.png

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

    As someone put this well in some other thread, the people in the US fall into two categories: those who think that the elections were rigged and it’s good, and those who think that the elections were rigged, and it’s bad.

    • Thanks: A123
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @AnonFromTN

    There are those who believe the elections were not rigged, and that it's bad, but it's nonetheless good that many think they were.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

    , @A123
    @AnonFromTN


    As someone put this well in some other thread, the people in the US fall into two categories: those who think that the elections were rigged and it’s good, and those who think that the elections were rigged, and it’s bad.
     
    Well put.

    It is hard to believe that lengths that some posters here will go to deny the ubiquitous misbehaviour by SJW ballot fabricators. I just hope that Team Red wakes up in time:

    -- When Team Blue normalized gerrymandering, Team Red got very good at it.
    -- Now that Team Blue has normalized election rigging, Team Red needs to deploy that expertise ASAP.

    I really hope that the GOP ruthlessly and obviously rigs the GA Senate Runoff results. Imagine how outraged the SJW's will be when Red counties have 500%+ turn out.

    -- COUNT Early -- COUNT Often
    -- Print MORE -- Count MORE

    PEACE 😇

    https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/IMG_2170.jpg

  37. @AnonFromTN
    @A123

    As someone put this well in some other thread, the people in the US fall into two categories: those who think that the elections were rigged and it’s good, and those who think that the elections were rigged, and it’s bad.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @A123

    There are those who believe the elections were not rigged, and that it’s bad, but it’s nonetheless good that many think they were.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @Anatoly Karlin


    There are those who believe the elections were not rigged
     
    As American saying puts it, there is a sucker born every minute.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

  38. @Pericles
    So how many of the worthies above predicted the massive electoral fraud? (Count me in the cope gang, lol.)

    Replies: @Supply and Demand, @Jayce, @Excal

    I predicted fraud and lawsuits in Pennsylvania, but I was very naïve about just how widespread this would be, and how strong. I was imagining Florida 2000-style stuff in Pennsylvania, not Chicago 1960 in almost every swing state.

  39. @E. Harding
    Georgia going Dem was blaringly predictable: the state trended D in 2008 and 2012, had a strong D trend in the 2016 election, got automatic voter registration following the 2016 election, Stacey Abrams got more votes than Hillary Clinton despite massively underperforming her in the rural areas of the state, the rural areas showed reasonably strong evidence that they would not be as Republican in 2020 as in 2018, and the Atlanta suburbs showed no sign of stopping their rapid blue trend. Ultimately, Atlanta's suburbs saw the some of the strongest 2016-2020 Dem shifts in the country, including the single strongest one (Henry County).

    My Florida misfire was just me underestimating the Latino tidal wave of rage. There were three Trump 2016->Biden 2020 counties in Florida; the non-Hispanic White vote swung towards Biden.

    My North Carolina misfire was based on the state having trended D in every election since 2004 and suspecting that the decent Republican turnout seen in the early voting would be countered by Dem trends in the White vote around Raleigh and Charlotte, as well as in the college towns - I was correct here, but not enough. I also was too dismissive of the early voting due to assuming pollsters fixed their mistakes since 2016 and that 2020 was too unique a year to make early voting inferences off of - I was wrong on both counts. Turnout was simply too good for the GOP for the Dems to flip the state, thus resulting in the Senate race and presidential race there going for the Rs, completely contradicting the polling. I certainly did not expect the state would trend Republican in 2020.

    Replies: @Excal

    Georgia going D is probably quite soon, but I didn’t think the numbers were there quite yet — and I still don’t.

    However, this election has reminded us that when things are close enough, somebody will try to tip the scales if they think they can get away with it. Clearly the Dems in Georgia were very, very hungry, and unbound by scruples, and they are probably going to get away with it.

    Next time, they’ll get away with it even harder, especially with Abrams as governor; and they’ll probably have the numbers anyway, just like in California.

  40. Georgia going D is probably quite soon, but I didn’t think the numbers were there quite yet — and I still don’t.

    Authentic Savannah, GA experience below.

    If the GOP can complete the shift to Trump Populist, it will be almost impossible for woke Libtards who hate the 2nd Amendment to flip Georgia.

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    https://savannaharsenal.com/2016/11/06/public-gun-ranges-near-savannah-georgia/img_7378/
     

  41. @AnonFromTN
    @A123

    As someone put this well in some other thread, the people in the US fall into two categories: those who think that the elections were rigged and it’s good, and those who think that the elections were rigged, and it’s bad.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @A123

    As someone put this well in some other thread, the people in the US fall into two categories: those who think that the elections were rigged and it’s good, and those who think that the elections were rigged, and it’s bad.

    Well put.

    It is hard to believe that lengths that some posters here will go to deny the ubiquitous misbehaviour by SJW ballot fabricators. I just hope that Team Red wakes up in time:

    — When Team Blue normalized gerrymandering, Team Red got very good at it.
    — Now that Team Blue has normalized election rigging, Team Red needs to deploy that expertise ASAP.

    I really hope that the GOP ruthlessly and obviously rigs the GA Senate Runoff results. Imagine how outraged the SJW’s will be when Red counties have 500%+ turn out.

    — COUNT Early — COUNT Often
    — Print MORE — Count MORE

    PEACE 😇

  42. Well,

    I got honorable mention, which is a highlight of my day 😉

    Either way, I truly believe that fraud took place, just as I believe that it will be allowed. Sort of like with OJ, sometimes ignoring the truth is more beneficial in the short term.

    Now the US is the best ever banana republic to exist ever. It’s votes were counted by and the software for it created by foreigners, it’s voting system besmirched by mail in ballots, faith in institutions lowest ever, racial tensions highest ever, also the ideological tensions, highest gun ownership, paper tiger military (except nukes and subs) that’s completely unwilling to be used internally in order to restore any semblance of constitutional integrity and order….

    Yet I predict this dog and pony show to go on as long as Democrats can cling to power, since only they are crazy enough to break the union if power slips from their fingers. The Republicans will bitch and moan and do nothing really about being dispossessed, they will just keep taking it so that their elite can have their piece of the diminishing pie.

    SCOTUS with their injustice just saved the dying republic for about 20 years, after which there will be far less to save.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Gorgeous George


    The Republicans will bitch and moan and do nothing really about being dispossessed, they will just keep taking it so that their elite can have their piece of the diminishing pie.
     
    #OccupySCOTUS

    While there is precedent to the GOP not acting, that was the pre-Trump GOP(e). The January 6, Electoral College floor fight has already been openly declared (1)


    [The DNC] ran to the mailbox where they could process hundreds of thousands of votes, oftentimes in the dark of night without signature matches, excluding the observers, sometimes where people voted in different states, sometimes when they lived in different states, sometimes when they weren’t even alive at all.

    And so on January 6th, I’m joining with the fighters in the Congress and we are going to object to electors from states that didn’t run clean elections.
     

    On January 6, VP Pence will deliver the accurate Electoral College result confirming Trump's re-election.

    The one thing that spineless Justices want to protect most is themselves. Their jelly-like preference for an "immoral peace" will squish when they see imminent personal risk. Allowing proven loser Biden to steal office only happens if it is "risk free".

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/12/20/matt-gaetz-promises-to-object-to-electors-from-states-that-didnt-run-clean-elections-on-january-6/

     
    https://i1.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2020/12/Screen-Shot-2020-12-16-at-8.53.11-PM.png

    Replies: @Gorgeous George

  43. @Anatoly Karlin
    @AnonFromTN

    There are those who believe the elections were not rigged, and that it's bad, but it's nonetheless good that many think they were.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

    There are those who believe the elections were not rigged

    As American saying puts it, there is a sucker born every minute.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @AnonFromTN

    I didn't lose money on Trump's loss, so how am I the sucker?

    Some actual suckers: https://www.insider.com/bettors-plan-to-sue-betfair-after-they-called-election-biden-2020-12

  44. @Gorgeous George
    Well,

    I got honorable mention, which is a highlight of my day ;)

    Either way, I truly believe that fraud took place, just as I believe that it will be allowed. Sort of like with OJ, sometimes ignoring the truth is more beneficial in the short term.

    Now the US is the best ever banana republic to exist ever. It's votes were counted by and the software for it created by foreigners, it's voting system besmirched by mail in ballots, faith in institutions lowest ever, racial tensions highest ever, also the ideological tensions, highest gun ownership, paper tiger military (except nukes and subs) that's completely unwilling to be used internally in order to restore any semblance of constitutional integrity and order....

    Yet I predict this dog and pony show to go on as long as Democrats can cling to power, since only they are crazy enough to break the union if power slips from their fingers. The Republicans will bitch and moan and do nothing really about being dispossessed, they will just keep taking it so that their elite can have their piece of the diminishing pie.

    SCOTUS with their injustice just saved the dying republic for about 20 years, after which there will be far less to save.

    Replies: @A123

    The Republicans will bitch and moan and do nothing really about being dispossessed, they will just keep taking it so that their elite can have their piece of the diminishing pie.

    #OccupySCOTUS

    While there is precedent to the GOP not acting, that was the pre-Trump GOP(e). The January 6, Electoral College floor fight has already been openly declared (1)

    [The DNC] ran to the mailbox where they could process hundreds of thousands of votes, oftentimes in the dark of night without signature matches, excluding the observers, sometimes where people voted in different states, sometimes when they lived in different states, sometimes when they weren’t even alive at all.

    And so on January 6th, I’m joining with the fighters in the Congress and we are going to object to electors from states that didn’t run clean elections.

    On January 6, VP Pence will deliver the accurate Electoral College result confirming Trump’s re-election.

    The one thing that spineless Justices want to protect most is themselves. Their jelly-like preference for an “immoral peace” will squish when they see imminent personal risk. Allowing proven loser Biden to steal office only happens if it is “risk free”.

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/12/20/matt-gaetz-promises-to-object-to-electors-from-states-that-didnt-run-clean-elections-on-january-6/

     

    • Replies: @Gorgeous George
    @A123

    I really do admire your optimism. I say Trump will fade into the night, with his posse of lawyers and I'll even guess that Pence will do a fantastic backstab at the very end by congratulating Biden.

    I see Pence as a swamp creature, not deep swamp but still enough to calculate that he might position himself better by doing that in the end.

    Either way I hope that you're right and I'm not.

  45. @AnonFromTN
    @Anatoly Karlin


    There are those who believe the elections were not rigged
     
    As American saying puts it, there is a sucker born every minute.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    I didn’t lose money on Trump’s loss, so how am I the sucker?

    Some actual suckers: https://www.insider.com/bettors-plan-to-sue-betfair-after-they-called-election-biden-2020-12

  46. @A123
    @Gorgeous George


    The Republicans will bitch and moan and do nothing really about being dispossessed, they will just keep taking it so that their elite can have their piece of the diminishing pie.
     
    #OccupySCOTUS

    While there is precedent to the GOP not acting, that was the pre-Trump GOP(e). The January 6, Electoral College floor fight has already been openly declared (1)


    [The DNC] ran to the mailbox where they could process hundreds of thousands of votes, oftentimes in the dark of night without signature matches, excluding the observers, sometimes where people voted in different states, sometimes when they lived in different states, sometimes when they weren’t even alive at all.

    And so on January 6th, I’m joining with the fighters in the Congress and we are going to object to electors from states that didn’t run clean elections.
     

    On January 6, VP Pence will deliver the accurate Electoral College result confirming Trump's re-election.

    The one thing that spineless Justices want to protect most is themselves. Their jelly-like preference for an "immoral peace" will squish when they see imminent personal risk. Allowing proven loser Biden to steal office only happens if it is "risk free".

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/12/20/matt-gaetz-promises-to-object-to-electors-from-states-that-didnt-run-clean-elections-on-january-6/

     
    https://i1.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2020/12/Screen-Shot-2020-12-16-at-8.53.11-PM.png

    Replies: @Gorgeous George

    I really do admire your optimism. I say Trump will fade into the night, with his posse of lawyers and I’ll even guess that Pence will do a fantastic backstab at the very end by congratulating Biden.

    I see Pence as a swamp creature, not deep swamp but still enough to calculate that he might position himself better by doing that in the end.

    Either way I hope that you’re right and I’m not.

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