The Unz Review • An Alternative Media Selection$
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 TeasersRussian Reaction Blog
Open Thread 187: Russia/Ukraine
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • B
Show CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeThanksLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Thanks, LOL, or Troll with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

The previous thread was getting sluggish, so here’s another Open Thread for the Karlin community.

— Ron Unz

 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: Open Thread, Russia, Ukraine 
Hide 910 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
    []
  1. Ron Unz says:

    I’ll actually jump-start this new thread with a question of my own.

    Given the massive wartime propaganda and the huge skew of the Western MSM, it’s sometimes difficult for someone like me to figure out what’s really happening, so particular datapoints are useful for recalibrating the reality.

    For example, for weeks now there’s been widespread talk of many Russian generals having been killed by the Ukrainians, with claims this proves the Russians were suffering enormous casualties and being defeated. I’d never questioned the former but been skeptical about the latter.

    Just a few days ago, there was a big front-page story in the NYT saying that American intelligence had played a crucial role in the deaths of the 12 Russian generals. It seemed a dangerous step for America to be taking, but once again I’d never really questioned those basic facts. After all, the death of a Russian general is a pretty objective fact.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/04/us/politics/russia-generals-killed-ukraine.html

    But then a couple of days ago I read a piece by the (seemingly solid, but strongly pro-Russian) MoA blogger that really surprised me.

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/05/us-pushes-fake-stories-to-goad-russia-into-escalation.html

    He claims that the deaths of those dozen Russian genera were just a Ukrainian propaganda-hoax like the “Ghost of Kiev” pilot. According to his account, only 2 Russian generals have died, and it’s ridiculous to believe that the Russians could have kept other such deaths secret.

    Now it seems to me that the death of Russian generals is a real-world fact that has a real-world existence, and there’s a big difference between 2 and 12. So I’m curious whether NYT/MSM/Ukraine or MoA/Russia are closer to being correct on this datapoint, which certainly would help me judge the credibility of their other claims.

  2. Mikhail says: • Website

    MoA along with yours truly and some others.

  3. Trump says Biden needs to have his head examined.

    (Sky News Australia)

    • Replies: @A123
  4. Rooster14 says:

    Just a casual observation- I see reported on MSM how ruthless the Russians are, how they’re bombing hospitals and schools with reckless abandon. Yet there seems to be a disconnect with reality, as several very high profile people have visited Kiev in the past few weeks, with no relative threat of danger. Boris Johnson, Lloyd Austin, Anthony Blinken, Justin Trudeau, Jill Biden, Bono for god sakes! No doubt I’m missing quite a few other notable visitors as well.

    Perhaps I’m mistaken, but what high level officials/celebs were visiting Berlin as it fell? Guadalcanal as it was being bombarded? Hiroshima before the bomb? None to my knowledge, possibly because these were actual war zones with real fighting going on! However, if you watched the news you’d think that Kiev was on par with these major battles… it’s then followed by a special report on Bono playing in a functioning subway station and Jill Biden touring the streets.

    Does this not raise any questions by the devoted MSM followers??

  5. Wokechoke says:
    @Ron Unz

    It would be rather gallant of these senior officers to have been so exposed to fire. Only two? Very disappointing.

    I tend to agree that there’s an element of goading escalation with these wild claims. The public consumed by tall tales might be the real target though.

  6. songbird says:

    Has anyone read this?:
    https://www.hardtowrite.com/pathogens/

    Prions are considered a subclass of amyloids. They are yucky misfolded versions of a protein that can spread like an infection by forcing normal copies of that protein into the same self-propagating, misfolded shape. The quantity of prions in the brain of a patient who died of Alzheimer’s at 40 were on average 32 times higher than in a patient who died at 90. Studies have shown that these proteins resist boiling, drying and exposure to formaldehyde. As a result, there is research suggesting that we may be picking up Alzheimer’s related pathogens from our trips to the dentist.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
  7. Wokechoke says:

    Question about M777 howitzers with Excalibur shells v Iskander missile CBU counter fire. The Russians can fire them from Belgorod or Kursk or for that matter Donetsk…

    As soon as radar picks up a shot fired by an M777 or Archer or that German design, won’t the Russians just fire an Iskander with a CBU and kill everything in a radius of the detected blast?

  8. Voltarde says:

    Biden told officials media reports about U.S. intel sharing with Ukraine are counterproductive

    May 6, 2022
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-told-officials-media-reports-us-intel-sharing-ukraine-are-counte-rcna27738

    President Joe Biden spoke with top U.S. intelligence and defense officials on Friday to stress the importance of their work but also said that recent news reports about U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine have been counterproductive, according to two administration officials.

    On the phone with CIA Director William Burns, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Biden’s message was that such disclosures “distract from our objective,” one official said. The other official said Biden conveyed that the leaks should stop.

    The CIA and the Office of the DNI declined to comment. The Pentagon and the National Security Council did not respond to requests for comment.

    Clearly, “Biden” (i.e., whoever is really in charge) is relaying the concerns of the U.S. military about the efforts of the State Department and the CIA to contribute to the Ukraine’s PR campaign, the only facet of the war that the Ukraine is “winning”.

    The DNI staff who are genuine professionals know what is actually happening in the Ukraine, but their political superiors control our access to the information that American citizens need to know to reach informed decisions about their support for escalating this war. Escalation is the goal of the State Department and CIA ideologues, which include those whose ancestral loyalties to the Ukraine or Poland are much more important to them than the national security interests of the United States.

    The Situation in Ukraine – UN Security Council
    https://media.un.org/en/asset/k1p/k1pvngjn8e

    The DNI staff who are genuine professionals know the truth about what happened in Mariupol, Bucha, Kramatorsk, and other similar incidents that are used for propaganda purposes by the Ukrainian PR machine. So far, those individuals have remained silent, as they fear for their careers.

    A useful point of reference is the IDF attack on the USS Liberty in 1967. Many U.S. DoD personnel knew the truth of what really happened during that notorious false-flag incident, which also could have resulted in the catastrophic use of nuclear weapons (against Egypt). Those DoD personnel were ordered to keep quiet in 1967.

    Today the ability of America to avoid a nuclear war rests with those genuine professionals within the DoD that are willing to sacrifice their careers if necessary to do their duty and provide the American people with a truthful account of what is really happening in the Ukraine.

  9. china-russia-all-the-way says:
    @Ron Unz

    I think the dust has settled in Bucha and it is time to reach a verdict on what happened.

    The Wall Street Journal had a piece two weeks ago, heavily titled against Russia. Is the story generally accurate or highly distorted?

    “Russia Turned a Bucha Building Into an Execution Site and Underground Prison”

    https://archive.ph/EbdPx

    In the story there are several eye witness accounts of detained people killed by Russian forces.

    Bucha Mayor Anatoly Fedoruk said the Russians divided the city into several zones and worked through a list of some 40 names of local politicians and state officials who lived in each zone, detaining and killing those they found.

    When Mykola Zakharchenko, who worked as a security guard on the grounds of 144 Yablunska Street before the Russians arrived, was detained on March 4 with another man, the grounds of the building were already strewn with dead bodies. The two were led with their hands in the air to a side yard where the bodies of seven men who had been shot were lying face down in pools of blood.

    There was similar violence at other Russian bases on Yablunska Street and nearby. Russian soldiers took over one yellow, two-story house with an adjoining garage, where neighbors said people were led and shot.

    Russian troops took over a children’s camp, digging trenches at its entrance. When the Russians left, local residents found five people there with their hands tied. They had been shot in the back of the head. Radio equipment and documents were left in another makeshift base.

    Then there is this odd part towards the end quoting a local hospital doctor who says most killed can be attributed to curfew confusion.

    Anton Dovhopol, the head doctor at the Bucha hospital, suggested to Russian soldiers that they dig mass graves to prevent the dead bodies from spreading disease.

    He also asked them to give civilians more time to get home before curfew. Since the Russians didn’t change their clocks to Ukrainian time when they invaded, civilians and troops were running on two different clocks.

    “It was the difference between curfew times, that was when most people died,” he said.

    The article didn’t supply any numbers on the number killed. It made no allegations of revenge killings in Bucha by Ukrainian forces against collaborators.

  10. @Ron Unz

    This guy is a great daily source of unbiased info.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @republic
  11. @songbird

    I hadn’t read that, but I do remember that during the Mad Cow Disease scare a while back, much of the fright was due to the fact that it was spread by prions and was thus hard to contain.

    Given that fact that there are so many latent pathogens we carry and are floating around everywhere, it seems to me more attention should be on how our immune systems perform so admirably in keeping us healthy so much of the time. Even cancers are constantly being nipped in the bud by our immune systems and one becoming serious or lethal is more an immune system failure than anything else.

    We should probably be devoting more research to understanding our immune systems more deeply rather than just killing pathogens.

    • Replies: @songbird
  12. Long dialogue between RWA and Ehrlich. Worth reading.

    https://im1776.com/2022/05/03/the-war-dialogues/

  13. AP says:
    @Carlton Meyer

    Unbiased? LOL. The guy is wearing a double headed eagle on his shirt.

  14. Raisin says:
    @Ron Unz

    As far as I am concerned, pro-Russian bloggers have just as much credibility as Western media nowadays. They tend to push delusional narratives such as the imminent encirclement of all Ukrainian forces in Donbas, as well as the assertion that the Russian push on Kiev was just a “feint”.

    Pro-Russian media, I will mention, tend to lie by omission rather than outright fabrications.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    , @Mikhail
  15. Raisin says:

    It would have been better if Russia had not invaded, it was at its zenith before with the successful intervention in Syria and bloodless coup and capture of Crimea.

    Now it is being exposed as a paper bear, unable to capture even the entire territories of the Luhansk and Donestsk Republics, with their long and glorious histories, as contrasted with the “fake and gay” nation of Ukraine…

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
    • Disagree: Mikhail
  16. LondonBob says:
    @Raisin

    Looks like there is an imminent encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the Donbass.

    • LOL: sudden death
  17. @Ron Unz

    Wiki, the “official source”, has a page on this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_generals_killed_during_the_2022_invasion_of_Ukraine

    According to the version up as I write:

    During the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, an unusual number of Russian generals, including the Russian Armed Forces and the National Guard of Russia, have been reported killed in action. As of 23 April 2022, Ukrainian sources reported that ten Russian generals had been killed during the invasion. The loss of flag officers, even as few as two, is rare. This makes the scale of these losses unprecedented in the modern era (since World War II).

    However, the table they present shows only nine names, of which only two are “confirmed” (Vladimir Frolov and Andrei Sukhovetsky). Of the remaining seven, two are “disputed” and five are “claimed”. As the names of these seven are provided, one would think it should not be an overly difficult task to confirm whether or not they are in fact dead or alive.

  18. Wokechoke says:
    @AP

    He’s Greek. I think he wants Constantinople back.

    • Replies: @republic
  19. Wielgus says:

    I remember years ago a member of the DPRK Politburo who was supposed to have been executed turned up alive and well on North Korean TV. It is clear that Western MSM sometimes report rumours as established fact.

  20. AP says:

    (copied form previous Open Thread)

    The problem with pretending that the Bucha rapes and massacres didn’t happen or that the Ukrainians themselves did it is that Bucha is full of people who can recall when it happened and who did it. Even ore than in Sandy Hook, it’s hard to deny something with those characteristics. Also, while it is possible (indeed likely) that there wuld be some pro-Russian collaborators there, Bucha and the rest of Kiev is very nationalistic (as much as Galicia) so this number would be small and would not account for more than a fraction of the deaths (if, indeed, collaborators were killed).

    If Russia were smarter, rather than deny the massacres they would justify them by stating that the civilians made themselves legitimate targets by helping the Ukrainian military. There was mass anti-Russian activity in those towns:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-ukrainian-civilians-risked-their-lives-to-help-win-the-battle-for-kyiv-11652002200

    ““Everyone here was doing all they could to get Russian troop movement across to our boys,” said Natalia Mohilni, a homemaker in Novyi Bykiv, who had called in soldier locations in and around the village, where locals said the Russians had set up a mobile crematorium to discard the dead.”

    ““No one wants the destruction, but we wanted the Russians even less,” she said. “Not having a chimney means we need to wait to use the wood oven, but that’s fine.”

    The strikes against the incoming Russian formations prevented crucial reinforcements and supplies from reaching Kyiv from the east, leaving Moscow’s troops undermanned and undersupplied, said Ukrainian officials and defense analysts. By the end of March, Russia had decided its attempt to seize Kyiv had failed and repositioned its forces in the country’s east.”

    ::::::::::::

    I remember backward troglodytes like Martyanov scoffing at Ukrainian IT prowess compared to Soviet-era tractor manufacturing, saying it was useless. Well:

    To streamline the process for Ukrainian defenders, the country’s Ministry of Digital Transformation launched chatbots on the popular Telegram messaging app that let Ukrainians share Russian troop locations online in a single database that went through the country’s Security Service. The capital’s Kyiv Digital app, which once helped people pay parking tickets and notify residents of temporary water cuts, was reconfigured to help users spot Russian troop movements and provide them to the military staff of the Armed Forces.

    [MORE]

    “The information was all given to the general staff and it was checked out, triangulated with other data and if the information was confirmed we would shoot to kill,” said Oleg Zhdanov, an independent Ukrainian military expert. “The information was particularly important during the first weeks of the conflict when columns of armor were coming straight down the road.”

    In the following weeks, he added, the ability to stop fuel, water and food supplies helped degrade the performance of Russia’s troops around Kyiv.

    The platforms gave instructions to provide “location, movement, volume of military equipment and personnel of the occupier.” Others explained to villagers how to drop pins on Google maps to send into security services and reminded users to delete their messages to prevent being caught by Russian troops.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    , @Ron Unz
  21. Wokechoke says:
    @sudden death

    This MacKay fellow is quite the character. I’ve followed his Twitter closely. He’s so close making the booster military analysis that he’s not discussing the wider politics.

    The Russians are fighting the Third World non aligned cause. I’m surprised he’s not addressed this aspect which is the most interesting aftermath now. This crazy black guy is obviously typical of African and Asian attitudes. Blacks in the US were quietly fist bumping Japanese wins in the early part of ww2. Proof that non whites could beat European or Americans. Pearl Harbor was a moment People of Color triumph that blacks in the US celebrated. The Pro Ukraine cause encompasses all sorts of very far right European and American groups. Russians can only discuss it in the most cartoon-like way in connection to ww2. Europeans can only call the Russians Nazis in the sense that they are waging a war of aggression. It’s all a euphemism for white v the rest.

    MacKay might be a sly white-supremist given this story about this black communist, but for purposes of staying on the BBC and Twitter he’s got to call the Russians a bunch of Nazis. His pro Azov stance with resulting cognitive dissonance is a treat. I find his positions to be a good example of walking this tightrope between the quiet part and the out loud part. His highlight of Russians striking a Jewish graveyard for example. It’s so predictable and dull. You just suspect he’s probably got a trove of AH Liebstardart memorabilia at home in the Mannerbund cave and picture of Erich von Manstein hung over the computer.

    • Replies: @sudden death
  22. There’s a lot of breathtaking stupidity in the Western right these days. The LARP as Germanic ethnic nationalist Nazis, while simultaneously LARPing as Russian nationalists cheering on the Red Army for destroying said German Nazis. Very confused people to say the least.

    Though to their credit they don’t seem conflicted to such an obvious contradiction, or if they are they don’t show it. They carry off their hypocrisy with a lot of bluff and bluster and arrogance.

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Europe Europa
  23. @Europe Europa

    I think they see German nationalism and Russian nationalism as the two main strains of white nationalism, and they like both equally, they’re not picky. Therefore they’re unbothered by the fact that the two are fundamentally in conflict with each other.

    They don’t care which one ultimately prevails, it’s all good to them.

  24. Thekid says:
    @Ron Unz

    I know it’s tough finding the truth but the NY Times would be the last place I’d look.

  25. A123 says: • Website
    @Ron Unz

    Given the massive wartime propaganda and the huge skew of the Western MSM, it’s sometimes difficult for someone like me to figure out what’s really happening, so particular datapoints are useful for recalibrating the reality.

    Others have made very similar points, including myself: (1)

    It remains difficult to locate solid reporting on the ongoing Ukraine conflict, but somewhere between the western media disinformation about the heroic efforts to fight back – and the Russian claims of advanced success in the region, the truth must exist. The challenge is finding the accurate information.

    Sadly, one must “read between the lines” to gather an approximation of the truth.

    big front-page story in the NYT saying that American intelligence had played a crucial role in the deaths of the 12 Russian generals.

    The eye opening part of the story is that the New York Times is allegedly reporting Top Secret information collected from multiple leaks about compartmentalized intelligence operations. That yields two possibilities:

    -A- The NYT fabricated the story (or used a single anonymous source)
    -B- The CIA, NSA, etc. are politicized top-to-bottom

    Option B appears to be correct:

    The NYT has devolved from a credible organization into a Leftoid tabloid. A whole scale fabrication at this level of complexity far exceeds their own level of internal competency. In large part, it has to have been fed to them from the outside.

    It is proven fact that the Obama administration converted political staff to “civil service” protected positions. Apparently, various professionals have quit over ‘leaders’, such as Samantha Power and Victoria Nuland, interfering with intelligence matters. Others left because they could not fit a DIE category for promotion. Conformity to Leftoid dogma is valued over performance.

    It is easy to see corruption in the FBI, with the Whitmer fraud and the still ongoing J6 fraud. There is no reason to believe other agencies that could be misused to shape U.S. policy are any better.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/05/07/proxy-war-update-russia-targeting-u-s-military-equipment-arriving-in-ukraine-apparently-with-some-success/

    • Replies: @PetrOldSack
  26. songbird says:
    @Barbarossa

    Had a lot of fun bringing it up, when I recently heard two people independently talking about going to the dentist.

    Years ago, I used to have another fun one about teeth that I would bring out sometimes: the form of fluoride used in toothpaste is the exact same as the active ingredient in a common type of rate poison. (different concentrations)

  27. sher singh says:

    Combining last few comments from last thread for visibility:

    216 says: Barbarians have no rights to object to industrialization. Any accusation of genocide is a clearly aimed threat at the ability of conservative white Americans like me to exercise Self-Determination.

    Yes.

    Akarlin says: All that this war has shown is that there are only two real military superpowers, and that they are the US and China.

    Sad, R1a reduced to drugs & horses once again. O well, works every time|| 😀

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  28. @Wokechoke

    The most clear thing which is demonstrated by this pleasing spaceballs cosplay from a blackie antifa american commie in a very restricted and guarded warzone area – RF is actively supporting, financing and using those types on puppet strings for their own needs inside and outside US.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Wokechoke
    , @Lurker
  29. Mr. Hack says:

    In response to Karlin comment #995 taken from previous Open Thread:

    All that this war has shown is that there are only two real military superpowers, and that they are the US and China.

    You said it and not I. On paper, Russia has much more weaponry of supposedly higher quality than China. So, how can this be? Chickenshit soldiers that are child rapists, psychotic murderers of the elderly and dissatisfied domestic consumers sending home all manner of superior kitchen utensils etc.?

    • LOL: sher singh
    • Replies: @Raisin
  30. A123 says: • Website
    @sudden death

    pleasing spaceballs cosplay from a blackie antifa american commie

    Do you mean Gay & Nigeran-Scottish (rather than American)?

    Meet the next Doctor Who, Ncuti Gatwa. Rumor has it he is a natural blonde.

    PEACE 😇

     

    • LOL: songbird
    • Replies: @songbird
  31. Raisin says:
    @Mr. Hack

    You are not seriously falling for this “Soviet untermenschen in East Prussia” narrative are you?

    Ukraine and Russia are more or less the same when it comes to material living standards, why do Ukrainians insist on boosting their own image with such laughable propaganda?

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  32. @AP

    To streamline the process for Ukrainian defenders, the country’s Ministry of Digital Transformation launched chatbots on the popular Telegram messaging app that let Ukrainians share Russian troop locations online in a single database that went through the country’s Security Service. The capital’s Kyiv Digital app, which once helped people pay parking tickets and notify residents of temporary water cuts, was reconfigured to help users spot Russian troop movements and provide them to the military staff of the Armed Forces.

    While Martyanov’s claims were nonsense, these are pretty dubious as well. Telegram – created by a Russian émigré. Google Maps – American.

    If Russia is a badlands so far as science/innovation is concerned, Ukraine is an all out desert. https://www.natureindex.com/country-outputs/generate/all/global

    Russia – 562
    Slovakia – 20.51
    Ukraine – 20

    Ukrainians being mid to high 90s IQ are however capable of adapting foreign IT solutions in a way that say Iraqis or Afghans would be less capable of.

    As I pointed out previously, so far as technical capacity is concerned, this is the rough equivalent of a United Kingdom (i.e. limited mobilization capacity, casualty-aversity, and unremarkable combat effectiveness) fighting a Soviet Union, but with the latter having access to Bletchley Park.

    Incidentally, it is possible that cooperation between the SBU and the American tech giants was critical in sabotaging pre-war uprisings.

    Access to the solution space of the American techno-noosphere multiplies Ukrainian state and military capabilities well beyond what one would expect of what is otherwise a rather poor, incompetent, and in many ways “sovok” polity.

    • Replies: @prime noticer
    , @AP
    , @cassandra
  33. A123 says: • Website
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    Trump says Biden needs to have his head examined

    While Not-The-President Biden is clearly mentally ill, the U.S. system has a huge problem. Mental health issues go to the Cabinet (Senate conformed appointees). Why would DNC loyalists elevate Not-The-VP Harris? She polls worse than the current White House occupant.

    To use a Game of Thrones analogy… It similar to be imprisonment in a Sky Cell [MORE]. You can leave at any time, but do you want to?

    PEACE 😇

    [MORE]

     

  34. Mr. Hack says:
    @Raisin

    It’s hard to disbelieve that which you can see in front of your eyes. I know it’s hard for the pro-kremlin crowd here to believe that these videos are genuine, but Byelorussian sources confirm the names of many of these happy Russian tourists (and thieves):

    Staged within a Kyivan movie set? I don’t think so. Until somebody like Ron Unz launches an investigation that proves that these clips are disingenuous, I’ll believe that they’re true and accurate. 🙂

    • Replies: @Here Be Dragon
  35. Latest Strelkov update about ongoing battles below. As we can see now his week old info about full mobilisation not being planned atm was reliable, but it also should be mentioned that he was able to post complete disinfo nonsense in the past (e.g. in 2014 about “dead military negroes” in Donbas from UA side and “unfresh bodies” falling from shot down Boeing) so wouldn’t be so sure about failed UA landing on Snake island until some backing visual evidence is presented by RF while atm there is still none:

    Kharkov Front:
    The withdrawal of the LDNR units and units of the National Guard, staffed entirely by poorly armed reservists, to new positions, significantly remotely from Kharkov compared to the previous ones, has ended. In some places, the withdrawal took place without the direct influence of the enemy, in some places – as a result of his direct pressure on the extremely under-armed, very small and completely untrained/inexperienced units of the RF “allies”.
    In “liberated” settlements (for example, Stary Saltov), ​​repressions began against local officials and activists who had the courage to cooperate with the Russian military authorities and did not have enough time or opportunity to retreat with them.
    At present, positional battles continue in the Kharkov region.

    South of Izyum, the situation has not fundamentally changed over the past few days. Our troops failed to break through the front of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and reach at least the Barvenkovo-Slavyansk highway. Fights continue.

    Severodonetsk-Popasnaya area.
    As a result of the completion of weeks-long battles for Popasnaya (taken by the joint efforts of the assault units of the PMC “Wagner” and the NM of the LPR, without any (except for the media) real participation of the “Kadyrovites”) – there was a direct probability of covering the Severodonetsk-Lysichansk node from the south. Apparently, the enemy command is ready for this and is going to leave part of the grouping existing there as a garrison of another “fortress”, hoping to tie up the assault forces for several weeks (from 1 to 3 or more) with stubborn street battles, just as happened in Volnovakha. In any case, there is no breakthrough of the front of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – the enemy has enough formations and manpower to cover the reduced section of the front after the encirclement becomes a reality. The possibility of leaving Severodonetsk and Lisichansk without the “fortress” script also exists, but it seems unlikely to me personally.

    Avdiivka district – no significant changes.
    There is unverified evidence that as a result of the illiterately carried out replacement of the experienced shelled personnel units of the NM of the DPR with units of reservists that have not yet been in battles, the enemy again occupied the entire part of Maryinka previously recaptured from him. Which, however (if this is true), does not have any serious significance, except for purely tactical ones.

    Fighting continues in the Ugledar region without significant changes in anyone’s favor.

    A similar situation takes place in the region of Gulyai-Pole and Zaporozhye, as well as near Krivoy Rog and Nikolaev.

    According to the situation around Snake Island. To me (based on the available data) it appears as follows:

    After the enemy demonstrated his anti-ship defense means (anti-ship missile systems, unmanned strike and reconnaissance aircraft coordinated by NATO air and satellite reconnaissance), the issue of holding the island without further active offensive operations in the Odessa-Izmail region lost all meaning. With purely defensive actions, there was a threat of an early complete isolation of the garrison and its further liquidation along the lines of the previous – “ukrainian” one. Moreover, the defense of the island in the immediate vicinity of the shores equipped with enemy anti-ship weapons inevitably entailed further high losses of the remaining naval and air forces of the Black Sea Fleet (for example, the frigate Admiral Makarov was attacked by a “bayraktar” without visible consequences).

    At the same time, apparently, the command of the Black Sea Fleet and the Russian troops managed to “catch” the enemy during his own attempt to occupy the island (important primarily from the point of view of propaganda). According to reports, the landing operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine completely failed with heavy losses. According to various sources, in its course, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost 1 SU-27 aircraft, from 1 to 3 Su-24 attack aircraft, from 1 to 3 Mi-8 transport and combat helicopters and 1 Mi-24 attack helicopter, from 2 to 4 bayraktars and several assault craft. During the hostilities, several air defense batteries of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were also hit by fire, one battery was completely destroyed, up to 8 Pechora air defense systems were broken and put out of action. The total losses of the enemy amounted to 78 people officially dead and several dozen more “missing.” There is unverified information about part of it being from foreign military companies also.
    At present, Snake Island, apparently, is not occupied by the garrison of any of the warring parties.

    As for the situation in Transnistria, I have no fresh data.

    https://vk.com/igoristrelkov?w=wall347260249_655548

  36. Ron Unz says:
    @AP

    The problem with pretending that the Bucha rapes and massacres didn’t happen or that the Ukrainians themselves did it is that Bucha is full of people who can recall when it happened and who did it.

    That’s the reason I’m focusing on a particular subset of the controversy, namely those 15-odd executed civilians lying in the road, which was so heavily featured in my NYT and other MSM outlets. All of them claimed they were killed by the Russians, while pro-Russian commenters argued to the contrary, in my opinion quite convincingly. Quoting part of my comment from the previous thread, and linking one of our several articles:

    The official MSM narrative is that the people had been killed by the Russians with their bodies only “discovered” a couple of days after the Russians pulled out. According to the MSM, satellite evidence proves that the bodies had been lying there for something like two weeks, which seems extremely implausible to me given what happens to bodies lying in the open air for such a long period. Several experienced military people claim that the bodies had obviously only been dead a day or two, proving that the Ukrainians killed them after reoccupying the town.

    Also, most of the victims were wearing white-cloth armbands, which apparently indicates lack of hostility to Russian troops, and the others seemed to have their hands bound with such white cloth. Near their bodies were unopened Russian meal-kits, which the Russians had distributed to local “friendlies.” This further suggests they were considered pro-Russian elements.

    Supposedly, a Ukrainian website announced that Bucha was being subjected to a “cleansing operation” aimed at traitors. This would fit with the other facts of what happened.

    https://www.unz.com/article/msms-bucha-tall-tale/

    Frankly, the particular massacre itself isn’t very significant, but I’m attempting to use it as a test-case for evaluating the credibility of the two sides, NYT/MSM vs. pro-Russian. If the former could blatantly lie about something so high profile yet so overwhelmingly obvious, and even rely upon fake satellite info, I have to considerably down-weight their credibility on all related matters.

    • Agree: Mikhail
    • Replies: @A123
    , @AP
  37. A123 says: • Website
    @Ron Unz

    That’s the reason I’m focusing on a particular subset of the controversy, namely those 15-odd executed civilians lying in the road, which was so heavily featured in my NYT and other MSM outlets. All of them claimed they were killed by the Russians, while pro-Russian commenters argued to the contrary, in my opinion quite convincingly.

    The most likely explanation is that NYT/MSM/Ukraine and MoA/Russia are both wrong. There was not a “single event” tallying to the 15 or so. Several different actions have been unreasonably lumped together.

    — Initial reports are consistent with Russian troops taking unauthorized actions.
    — Retaliation by Ukrainian soldiers and/or civilians followed.

    Individuals on both sides are guilty. However, there is no reason to believe that senior military civilian or military leadership on either side ordered or condones what happened in Bucha.
    ______

    I know I have mentioned it before, but it bears repeating.

    The presence of smart phones on the front lines allows inflammatory propaganda to reach young adults with the means to react unwisely. However, there are too many militarily useful applications to simply seize all of the electronics. This is a serious problem with no obvious solution.

    PEACE 😇

    • Agree: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Mikhail
  38. songbird says:
    @A123

    Do you mean Gay & Nigeran-Scottish (rather than American)?

    Technically, I believe he is a gay Tutsi. The Congoids in the place where he was born being Hutus, not Nigerians.

    I dislike to make a compound with Scottish, as I don’t think there is significant difference, if he were living in England, Wales, or Ireland, or really any country in Europe, save, perhaps, his facility with the English language.

    BTW, I did not realize he was gay (being unfamiliar with him until lookup), and thank you for bringing it to my attention.

    • Replies: @A123
  39. Russia is running out of missiles!

    oh wait, no, that’s NATO.

  40. @sudden death

    Support to what? To the troops on the ground or civilians? Seeing the Other as a blob deepens the Us vs Them attitude.

  41. @Ron Unz

    most of what NYT publishes a lie, and 100% of everything they’ve published on this war since it started has been a lie, so why wouldn’t this be a lie?

    Steve Sailer has greatly discredited himself by spending 20 years pointing out how everything the prestige newspapers publish is highly suspect, but then going far out of his way to believe everything they wrote about Ukraine since february of this year. Steve’s position – almost anything thing they publish is probably not the truth, EXCEPT when it comes to Ukraine, where they are suddenly highly truthful, accurate, and correct.

    Steve didn’t do his usual “I’m not an expert here, so I could be wrong” disclaimer, and he didn’t do his usual job of checking other sources. instead, he acted exactly like a highly partisan far left democrat voter for life – everything NYT, WAPO, and CNN reports on this one issue is gospel.

  42. A123 says: • Website
    @songbird

    Technically, I believe he is a gay Tutsi. The Congoids in the place where he was born being Hutus, not Nigerians.

    You are correct. The actor is from Rwanda. He portrays a character with family in Nigeria.

    The character is also gay. No official word on whether the actor is on the guy-guy team, but there is a suspiciously limited track record. One possible girlfriend, Jessica Hardwick, ~5 years ago.

    PEACE 😇

  43. @prime noticer

    Sailer is an American (civic) nationalist. Russia and the US are now engaged in a de facto proxy war. We could argue it began in 2014 but it has stepped up massively since 2022.

    Moreover, as Greenwald has pointed out, Republican attitudes vis-a-vis Russia are now just as hawkish as those of democrats, Tucker being an exception.

    So Sailer, being a GOP-voting American nationalist, is merely following the stream with his increasing hostility towards Russia.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Mikhail
  44. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    If Russia is a badlands so far as science/innovation is concerned, Ukraine is an all out desert. https://www.natureindex.com/country-outputs/generate/all/global

    Russia – 562
    Slovakia – 20.51
    Ukraine – 20

    I don’t think production of basic research in the sciences necessarily corresponds to savvy use of technology. Ukraine is one of the top programming outsourcing centers and as the article I posted from indicates, these skills have been used for devastating effect on Russian troops. Martyanov shrugged off app makers in Lviv and Kiev cafes but it turns out that lots of Russian soldiers have been killed thanks to digitised information gathering. And it’s funny that Russian-created Telegram was one of the tools.

    Thank you for the information about Clearview, very interesting.

    Ukraine’s military underwent significant reforms after 2014, such that it is far less Soviet than the Russian military. Ukraine’s NCOs have much more initiative and responsibility, it’s special forces were trained extensively by the Americans and British. I suppose Anglo-American efforts were wasted on Afghans or Georgians but to Anglo-American delight the Ukrainians have been great students. By proving that Western training and weapons were a great ROI the Ukrainians have earned more of them.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  45. Scandinavia now the most hostile region in Europe towards Russia. Surprisingly, even more than Poland or the Baltics. The Russophiles aren’t particularly shocking either. Only outlier is Spain. Southern Europe has traditionally been fairly lukewarm on the idea that Russia is a threat, but Spain looking very “Baltic”.

    P.S. Hungary’s continued blocking of self-defeating EU embargo on Russian energy imports solidifies their role as the most important new EU member to have joined in the last 20 years.

    • Replies: @Matra
  46. On the topic of technology, Western fears that China would step in to help Russia looks overblown.

    Chinese Tech Giants Quietly Stop Doing Business With Russia

    China’s exports of tech products to Russia fell sharply in March from February, with shipments of laptops declining more than 40%, smartphones down by nearly two-thirds and exports of telecom base stations down 98%, according to the most recently available Chinese government trade data.

    Major U.S. chip companies that supply Chinese firms are pressing customers to comply with the rules and ensure their semiconductors don’t end up in third-party goods shipped to Russia in violation of the rules, according to people familiar with the matter. One supplier sent a letter to all its customers in March pushing them to comply, while sales staff have reached out as well to ensure compliance, according to one of the people.

    China’s Ministry of Commerce last month acknowledged that the sanctions have disrupted China’s trade with Russia, but urged companies “not to submit to external coercion and make improper external statements.”

    Interesting that even the government’s pleas fall on deaf ears. The story mostly mentions Lenovo, Xiaomi and DJI but Huawei has a critical role in telecommunications. The Big Three in telecom equipment are Ericsson (Swedish), Nokia (Finnish) and Huawei.

    The aviation sector also does not look like it will do great as time drags on and western spare parts dry up.

    Part of the reason why I was skeptical of an invasion was that I never doubted Russia’s capacity to win the war military. I just thought the Kremlin understood Russia’s perilous technological vulnerability and how China can only offer limited help at best (mostly energy imports). As commenter “Bromance of Three Kingdoms” pointed out, Russia is not that needed by China except for a few primitive sectors. It was never realistic to expect that major Chinese firms would choose Russia over the West if it came down to it.

    Clearly the people running the Kremlin aren’t very smart and still think the world is decided by tanks rather than technology or financial warfare. Tanks matter, but only midwits think they are the final arbiter. A massive economy is what permits a powerful army, not vice versa. Russia’s army hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory in this conflict, so even that cope is weaker than it used to be.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    , @Barbarossa
  47. @AP

    I don’t think production of basic research in the sciences necessarily corresponds to savvy use of technology.

    This is something that any 95+ IQ tier country can and will do.

    The same is happening in Donbass, where unlike Bucha, locals dislike Ukrainians more than Russians. https://im1776.com/2022/05/03/the-war-dialogues/

    Crowdsourced Russian OSINT is in direct communication with the Armed Forces, providing public geolocation and other services. There are several Telegram bots where pro-Russian locals (or simply locals who don’t like being used as human shields) can send coordinates and photos of Ukrainian targets like strongpoints, ambushes, hidden repair workshops, artillery positions, etc.

    Neither is any kind of particularly impressive technical achievement.

    The real alpha, such as the one that likely enabled the sinking of the Moskva, is provided by the Americans.

    ***

    Ukraine’s military underwent significant reforms after 2014, such that it is far less Soviet than the Russian military.

    The professional military. Yes. The cannon fodder reservists getting shredded up by Russian artillery in the Donbass (and in Kharkov when they ventured after the “retreating” Russians): No.

    • Replies: @AP
  48. AP says:
    @Ron Unz

    I don’t read the NYTimes and have ignored it since it’s nonsensical BLM reporting (same for CNN). The only mainstream news source I read is WSJ.

    There were hundreds of people murdered in and around Bucha. There were not that many collaborators, the region was very anti-Russian. And there were too many witnesses seeing Russians dragging people away. So even if a handful of collaborators were murdered this would not mean that the Russians did not engage in widespread murder, rape, property destruction, and looting on a scale that dwarfed what we may have been done to collaborators.

    Moreover, what the Russians were doing in Bucha was rather typical – it was what Soviets (mostly Russians and Buryats – same as in Bucha) has done in Berlin during and after the Second World War. That the combination of hostile local population, poor training if soldiers who came from some of the most impoverished and violent regions in Russia, and deadly attacks by the enemy that were aided by local civilian spotters led to massacres is hardly remarkable. You think these Russians were better than their great-grandparents or better than the American boys at Mi Lai?

    wearing white-cloth armbands, which apparently indicates lack of hostility to Russian troops, and the others seemed to have their hands bound with such white cloth. Near their bodies were unopened Russian meal-kits, which the Russians had distributed to local “friendlies

    Does it strike you as realistic that collaborators would be walking around with identifiers and even unopened Russian gifts (why eat the food rations you were given when instead you can hold them as proof of your collaboration as the Ukrainians take control?) so they could be easily picked out by those doing the supposedly announced clearing operation?

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  49. A123 says: • Website
    @Thulean Friend

    Greenwald has pointed out, Republican attitudes vis-a-vis Russia are now just as hawkish as those of democrats, Tucker being an exception

    Greenwald is substantially incorrect.

    The initial support for Ukraine was limited to GOP(e) holdovers, including Lindsey Graham. An unnecessary conflict with Christian Russia is unappealing to Christian MAGA Populists. Christian Russia fighting Christian Ukraine makes no sense. Getting both sides to the table to negotiate an armistice is clearly the correct policy.

    The New MAGA GOP recognizes the CCP as the largest geopolitical threat to American workers. To the extent that Putin volunteers to serve Xi, Russia will receive spillover. However, this is not an endorsement of the Ukrainian side.

    Sailer is an American (civic) nationalist. Russia and the US are now engaged in a de facto proxy war.

    The Blue Coup administration needs to buy loyalty. Handing out cash to MIC manufacturers keeps them on board for U.S. domestic considerations. There is scant evidence that the “aid” will help Ukraine win. The most it will achieve is helping them lose more slowly.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    , @Barbarossa
  50. LondonBob says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Why would China publicise what they are doing?

  51. Matra says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Polls have shown Spain to be among the most anti-Russian countries in Europe for the last decade, maybe longer. Interestingly, Spain’s levels of anti-Americanism have also been consistently higher than just about every country in Europe other than maybe Greece. That’s been fairly constant over about 30 years.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  52. Mr. Hack says:
    @A123

    There is scant evidence that the “aid” will help Ukraine win. The most it will achieve is helping them lose more slowly.

    All but ten Republicans voted for the recent Lend/Lease Ukraine bill in the congress. So, I think that its relatively safe to say that the bill was passed with bi-partisan support. Whether Ukraine will win or lose is yet to be seen, but I’d say that so far it’s doing better than Russia. Putler looked a little bit overwhelmed and tired at today’s festivities in Moscow, not the image of a great conqueror. Well, what does he have to show for all of his efforts after two and a half months? Even Karlin seems a little bit dejected by it all, having to up his estimates of a Ukrainian surrender up from a couple of weeks, to a couple of years now….

    • Replies: @German_reader
  53. German_reader says:
    @Matra

    Isn’t Spain extremely “progressive” on most issues (immigration, homos etc.)?
    The most fervent supporters of Ukraine (apart from Eastern Europeans with their ancestral vendettas) seem to be mainstream leftie-liberals, who often link it with hopes for a reckoning with right-wingers within the Western sphere. Given that package the poll results from Spain may not be that surprising.

    • Agree: Mikel
  54. German_reader says:
    @Mr. Hack

    Well, what does he have to show for all of his efforts after two and a half months?

    Russia is controlling most of the Black sea coast and is in a position to economically strangulate Ukraine.
    I think Karlin’s dreams of annexing most of Ukraine are over-blown megalomania which probably won’t come to pass, but Ukraine is in no position of inflicting a decisive defeat on Russia either.

    • Agree: Barbarossa, A123
    • Replies: @AP
    , @Mr. Hack
    , @RadicalCenter
  55. awry says:

    Second (third) hand story from a truck driver, who is totally apolitical, might be worth publishing his account of his trip to central Ukraine.

    It so happened that he had been undertaking Belarusian haulage for some time, paying 800 euros per trip, in return for going through the congestion on the Polish-Belarusian border and the traffic-blocking actions of Ukrainian organisations operating on the Polish side. As he is in the business of transporting live animals, they can really only slow down his border crossing because he has priority for his cargo.

    Earning 4000 euros/month is not out of the ordinary with that kind of trips.

    At one point his boss came and asked if he’d do a Ukrainian freight.

    What and how much?
    Day-old chicks, 1300 euros per ride
    Okay, can be done, but…

    The “but” needs a little explanation. Of course, they often chat with colleagues, so he’s been pretty much in the know for a while. The “but” included a few pre-conditions.

    – He can’t do it without an escort. That is, the representatives of the recipient, the Ukrainian poultry farm, must go with them.

    – He is getting a new passport that doesn’t have stamps from Belarus.

    He insisted on these because a colleague of his had already been in Ukraine unaccompanied when he was transporting day-old chicks over Lviv with many Belarusian stamps in his passport, and was very often harassed in very frightening ways at checkpoints by local forces. (five of them surrounded him, told him all sorts of shit, at first he wasn’t scared, and told them in his native language: “I brought you food, you fuckers…”, but then they poked him with the barrel of an AK, but in such a way that purple stains were left behind, which scared him and the only way he could get away was to spit on the ground in a spectacular manner and shout “Phew Putin!”.

    So all settled, let’s go.

    Border crossed at 4am, cargo in 24 degree temperature controlled environment, little critters watched on monitors all the time.

    Their escorts set off ahead of them, the destination is in around the middle of Ukraine.

    On the way, they typically took the minor roads, and also passed through the southern suburbs of Kyiv. That the buyer was a local oligarch with far-reaching connections and a background in the poultry business was indicated by the fact that they were escorted by 5 subsequent teams on the way there, all of them in rather expensive SUVs.

    It was as if every district had its local militia, but one that even at the checkpoints was treated with respect by both the military and the field guards. Because there were plenty of checkpoints, sometimes every kilometer.

    As he was moving along a line where the war had not passed, I said to him, “but at least you didn’t see a corpse”! “You think so? I’ve only seen one, but I’ll never forget it. At a checkpoint, a Lada, and the driver’s head was still bleeding from the head shot… Our escort just shrugged, it’s nothing, let’s just go. They all fuck up each other, one wrong look is enough! 70 year old geezers also have Kalas, but we had a good time, our escort was very respected by the soldiers…”

    We reached the poultry farm at 6pm, dropped off our cargo, said we were going home.

    The Ukrainians had a good laugh at that, because there is a curfew from 8 p.m. and we don’t want to be out between 6 and 8 p.m., because the checkpoints are full of testosterone and vodka is flowing, at least in case of the territorial guards.

    So we were only allowed to leave in the morning, and back home the wife asked him, “You’re not going to do that kind of driving again, are you?

    “Sure I do…, it’s a total adrenaline rush… for 1300 euros…”

    • Thanks: Barbarossa, Adept
  56. AP says:
    @German_reader

    Russia is controlling most of the Black sea coast and is in a position to economically strangulate Ukraine

    Russia has taken one of the three provinces that border the Black Sea and not the one with the most frontage, nor the main port. Russia has always had the means to control and block the Black Sea even without grabbing any of that territory, so from that perspective nothing has changed, if anything the loss of a few ships has made its position a little worse although since control/not control is binary thing the sinking of a couple ships makes no difference.

    If the blockade becomes permanent, Ukraine can just ship everything westward and use Gdańsk as its port, as had been the case for Ukrainian exports for centuries until the Black Sea was opened up.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    , @Seraphim
  57. @prime noticer

    He believed 99% of the virus and vaccine BS as well.

  58. German_reader says:
    @AP

    Ukraine can just ship everything westward

    What keeps Russia from bombing the railways? I suppose there might be issues with accurate targeting, but apart from that?
    Export by rail is more expensive in any case, so there’ll be significant economic pressure even in the best scenario.

    • Replies: @AP
  59. AP says:
    @German_reader

    I didn’t think that you had assumed ongoing active war but a longterm peacetime blockade situation in which the Black Sea became unusable.

    Nevertheless, Russia has failed to eliminate Ukraine’s rails but as long as it keeps trying than stable business can’t be conducted that way of course.

  60. Ron Unz says:
    @AP

    I don’t read the NYTimes and have ignored it since it’s nonsensical BLM reporting (same for CNN). The only mainstream news source I read is WSJ.

    I certainly read the WSJ account as well, but the facts seemed a little ambiguous to me. For example, according to the story various Ukrainian civilians were using their smartphones to report Russian troop positions to the Ukrainian military so that they could be attacked, and that the Russians later killed some of them. That really doesn’t sound like a “war crime” to me.

    The main reason I’ve focusing on those victims lying in the road is that the story was ultra-high-profile in the NYT and the rest of the Western MSM, and I’m trying to use it as a test case to determine the relative credibility of their other claims.

    Does it strike you as realistic that collaborators would be walking around with identifiers and even unopened Russian gifts

    Well, the only other possibility is that the Russians deliberately put those white-cloth markers on their victims presumably for false-flag purposes, then killed them, and the bodies lay undisturbed in the road for the next two weeks without anyone doing anything about them. That seems far less plausible.

    • Replies: @AP
  61. Mr. Hack says:
    @German_reader

    Ukraine, unlike Russia doesn’t have unlimited human resources to use everywhere all at once. Mariupol, is a good example of what I’m trying to express. Sure, watching the Russia sadism that was unleashed in Mariupol was difficult to watch everyday, however if Ukraine if stretched too thin it might have lost the center, and then it would have really been in some real trouble. It’s bogged down in the eastern zone and is, according to the reports I’m hearing, pushing the Russians back to their own border. One thing at a time for the Ukrainian military.

    I can’t help but believe that the Ukrainian military will return to Kherson. The locals all hate the Russian invaders, and the Russians can’t even put together a fake referendum there. The South will be loosened up, especially after the Ukrainians bomb the Kerch bridge*. Mostly Putler and his supporter A-123 will be shedding big alligator tears when that happens. The bridge, of course, is the main transport vehicle for Russian weapons into Crimea, that eventually end up in the rest of Ukraine. This will be the beginning of the end for Russia’s sad tale in Ukraine. 🙁

    *Remember, you heard it first right here.

    • Replies: @Lurker
  62. AP says:
    @Ron Unz

    according to the story various Ukrainian civilians were using their smartphones to report Russian troop positions to the Ukrainian military so that they could be attacked, and that the Russians later killed some of them. That really doesn’t sound like a “war crime” to me.

    In this particular case it might not be though I haven’t researched the appropriate statutes. Someone on Sailer’s blog mentioned a few weeks ago that a uniformed invader, upon surrendering, cannot be harmed and doing so is a war crime. On the other hand, when some farmer whose family has lived in a place for generations engages in war against the invaders while not in uniform (say, by reporting invader positions to his own nation’s army) and he is captured and executed it is not a legal war crime. It still seems morally reprehensible on the part of the invaders though.

    Of course it does not seem that careful objective investigations were conducted by the Russians before they shot people for allegedly reporting their positions.

    Well, the only other possibility is that the Russians deliberately put those white-cloth markers on their victims presumably for false-flag purposes

    Or maybe civilians took to wearing white markers in the hopes that they wouldn’t get shot and this strategy didn’t work for the ones who were shot.

    and the bodies lay undisturbed in the road for the next two weeks without anyone doing anything about them

    Because Russians were also sometimes shooting people on the streets it makes sense that no one would try to move the bodies until the Russians left.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  63. Coconuts says:

    The local university library has been discarding a lot of old unused humanities books lately. There are some potentially interesting volumes, though most of them look pretty dusty. I was browsing ‘Crisis of the European Mind’ (1981) today, probably it was some guy’s doctorate made into a monograph.

    There are a lot of spicy passages by today’s standards, this is from a section about the work of the 20s/30s novelist Paul Morand:

    ‘His impressions of the ‘Black world’ are to be found mainly in three works, Magie Noire (1927), A.O.F. Paris-Tombouctou (1928) and ‘L’Hiver Caraibe’ (1929). In these works the Negro is portrayed as a destructive and superstitious creature whose blood, however much diluted by ‘adulterated unions’, still races with the savage excitement of ancient rites and primitive instinct. The obscure compulsions of the ‘primitive psyche’ which Morand from an aesthetic point of view found so fascinating, convinced him that Europe was playing a dangerous game. In her ‘negromania’ she was undermining her own intellectual supports and collapsing into a dark underworld of blind irrational impulse.’

    Makes you think that academia has changed a fair bit since the early 80s, nowadays a passage like this may be seen as in some respects racist.

  64. SIMP simp says:

    Karlin was recently interviewed by Alex Kashuta

    [MORE]

    • Thanks: Dieter Kief
  65. Wokechoke says:
    @AP

    War crimes are ultra specific. They are designed to reduce harm to civilians though.

  66. The litmus test of being a Conservatives or Reactionary is his attitude on pornography. The genuine article would harshly drive it out of public and private life, being grounded in all the religious and moral traditions. Inferior to this would be those disfavoring porn because of very utilitarian “natalist” (porn being distractive of any procreative goals) reasons. Those who watch porn at home, basically the 4chaners rushing between /h/ and /pol/ and posting political commentary with scantily clad anime women, fails the test, because t*tties only lead to brain rot.

    A123 can basically guess what he will denounce in fright from the implication this test has for local law enforcement.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
  67. Mikhail says: • Website
    @AP

    Unbiased? LOL. The guy is wearing a double headed eagle on his shirt.

    Compared to your brilliantly objective observations?

    • Replies: @AP
  68. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Raisin

    Pro-Russian media, I will mention, tend to lie by omission rather than outright fabrications.

    BBC, CNN, PBS, CNN, Fox, MSNBC… have blatantly lied

  69. Wokechoke says:
    @sudden death

    Niggers are the responsibility of Biden though. Motherfucker used them to overthrow Whitey at home.

    • Replies: @sudden death
  70. Mikhail says: • Website
    @A123

    Upon the Russian troop withdrawal and Kiev regime forces entry, the four day non-comment of Russian atrocities is curious.

    Svido propagandists downplay the pro-Kiev regime Belarusian neo-Nazi, who is seen in Bucha after the Russian withdrawal, in a discussion saying it’s okay to shoot people with white bands, which numerous of the corpses had. There’s also the matter of likely collateral damage when Kiev regime forces fired at Bucha during the Russian presence there.

    Bucha civilians were allowed to use cell phone during the Russian presence. Some reported accounts say the Russians were initially friendly and became gradually more jittery. Based on what’s known and not, there’s the possibility of some Russian summary executions.

    Given the blatant Kiev regime lies and the Western mass media downplaying of such, along with the Biden admin acknowledging the release of suspect claims, there’s good reason to be suspect of what the Kiev regime and Western mass media say on such matter without conclusive proof.

    Upon the Russian atrocities claim, Russia called for an immediate UNSC meeting to specifically discuss Bucha. The Brits who controlled the UNSC for that month, shot down that Russian request. Instead, there was a general discussion on Ukraine, leading to the propaganda campaign to have Russia kicked out of the UNHRC.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  71. @Wokechoke

    Overthrown whitey be like:

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @A123
  72. @Yellowface Anon

    Anime women are not pornography. They are cartoons ffs. A non-Japanese man watching anime makes about as much sense as a non-Japanese man getting drunk and singing karaoke, i.e. no sense at all.

    I watch NFL football though so have no reason to toss rocks at you from my glass apartment.

  73. Ron Unz says:
    @Mikhail

    Upon the Russian atrocities claim, Russia called for an immediate UNSC meeting to specifically discuss Bucha. The Brits who controlled the UNSC for that month, shot down that Russian request. Instead, there was a general discussion on Ukraine, leading to the propaganda campaign to have Russia kicked out of the UNHRC.

    Yes, I forgot to mention that. I find it extremely suspicious that the Russians wanted a full UN investigation of the Bucha Massacre, while the pro-Ukrainian West refused.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
  74. Wokechoke says:
    @sudden death

    Sudden Death, GROW UP.

    • Replies: @sudden death
  75. Wokechoke says:
    @republic

    He is a Greek ethnic with a British accent and Passport. The Two Headed Eagle is Imperial Constantinople. He is fully aware of how the Turks have been enabled by the British and Americans to fucked over Greece.

    • Replies: @Seraphim
    , @cassandra
  76. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Thulean Friend

    Moreover, as Greenwald has pointed out, Republican attitudes vis-a-vis Russia are now just as hawkish as those of democrats, Tucker being an exception.

    There’s hope. Ten Repubs and no Dems voted against the bloated Kiev regime arms package. There were several non-votes which I suspect were most, if not all Repub. In the US, Zelenskymania could very well go the route of Avenatti, Christie, Booker and the Cuomos.

    The next US prez might very well be a Repub who isn’t committed to the neocon/neolib foreign policy slant.

    Patience.

    Related:

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/28042022-us-options-on-russia-ukraine-oped/

  77. songbird says:

    The Dominicans amended their constitution to get rid of birthright citizenship. Then a Dominican judge made it retroactive.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  78. AP says:
    @Mikhail

    I’ve gotten in discussions with Alexander in the past, he is very smart but also quite biased. You are only one of those two things.

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Mikhail
  79. AP says:

    Russia specifically wanted to convene in order to investigate what it called “Ukrainian provocations” and was denied.

    That would be like USSR calling for a UNSC meeting to discuss what it called the “Katyn provocation by the Germans” and being denied.

    Meanwhile:

    https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-putin-bucha-war-crimes-icc-1698858

    Russian foreign affairs ministry official Pyotr Ilyichev raised the prospect that Russia would use its veto to stop any move by the United Nations to investigate alleged atrocities in Bucha.

    Moscow has said it would oppose an independent investigation into an alleged massacre at Bucha at the center of claims Russian troops committed atrocities, which might form an International Criminal Court (ICC) case against Vladimir Putin.

    Reports of a mass grave and bodies strewn in the streets after Russian forces pulled out of the Kyiv suburb shocked the world and prompted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to call for an end to Russian “war crimes.”

    But Russian foreign affairs ministry official Pyotr Ilyichev raised the prospect that Russia would use its veto to stop any move by the United Nations to investigate alleged atrocities in Bucha.

    “So far, this topic has not been raised at the UN,” said Ilyichev, who is the foreign ministry’s director of the department of international organizations.

    “We need to look at what kind of investigation it might be, who will conduct it,” he told state-run news agency RIA Novosti. “Unfortunately, the experience of previous investigations, including through the ICC, shows only a biased position.”

    ::::::::::::

    So Russia does not want an independent investigation of Bucha crimes it wants an investigation, apparently controlled by Russia, of what it calls “provocations” by Kiev.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
  80. Seraphim says:
    @AP

    Of course, after the announced abolition of the borders between ‘Ukraine’ and Poland (i.e. annexation of Galitia/Volhynia’ by Poland) and the return of Odessa to Russia ”Ukraine can just ship everything westward and use Gdańsk as its port”.

  81. @Thulean Friend

    It looks bad for Yellowface Anon’s idea of the hard decoupling into separate blocs, at least on a shorter timetable. While I could potentially see the Chinese finding it desirable to effect such a thing in the future it doesn’t seem that they have a developed enough consumer base to decouple in a dramatic without excessive economic fallout.

    • Replies: @A123
  82. @A123

    I don’t know about your area but my deep Red Trumpy area has a lot of dislike for Russia and support for Ukraine. It mostly revolves around a reversion to the chest thumping “protecting democracy” rhetoric of the War on Terror era Republicans. Such reflexes are apparently hard to shake.

    • Replies: @A123
  83. @AP

    To go back to my comment on the last thread, I don’t doubt that there was opposition in France and Germany to Ukraine joining NATO. However it doesn’t seem as though it was unreasonable for Putin to expect that such resistance would have been overcome especially with America’s influence (though somewhat inconsistently) lionizing the Ukrainian cause.

    Again, how is one supposed to interpret decisions like the acceptance of Montenegro into NATO? It reasonably looks like expansion for expansion’s sake since what conceivable benefit would the inclusion of such a tiny corrupt nation bring to the alliance. It’s a pure liability.

    Perhaps Putin was wrong in his assumptions on future Ukrainian NATO membership or perhaps is even using such as a idea as intentional pretext, I really don’t know any more than you do. It seems far too unrealistically certain to state that Ukraine has “zero” chance of joining NATO. Maybe it wouldn’t have happened, but I haven’t seen anything to make me believe that it was out of the realm of possibility.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @cassandra
  84. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Are the Russians doing stuff like this though:

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    , @Sean
  85. AP says:
    @Barbarossa

    There is a greater (but still small) chance of Ukraine joining NATO now, than there was before this war started. France and Germany were too averse regarding a potential conflict with Russia to allow Ukraine to join NATO (I strongly suspect that they initially wished that Russia would win this war quickly so there would no longer be this problem to deal with), especially after the Georgian war. Ukraine’s military was not NATO ready, too much corruption, territorial disputes, etc.

    Now that Ukraine shown that it can and will fight, plus sympathy for Ukraine due to the invasion, means a greater chance of Ukraine getting admitted than before.

  86. Mikhail says: • Website
    @AP

    I’ve gotten in discussions with Alexander in the past, he is very smart but also quite biased. You are only one of those two things.

    Projection on your part.

  87. Mikhail says: • Website
    @AP

    “We need to look at what kind of investigation it might be, who will conduct it,” he told state-run news agency RIA Novosti. “Unfortunately, the experience of previous investigations, including through the ICC, shows only a biased position.”

    For sure.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  88. Lurker says:
    @sudden death

    RF is actively supporting, financing and using those types on puppet strings for their own needs inside and outside US

    So any moment now we will see the assorted arms of US internal security move to smash entities like BLM and Antifa? Mass arrests, seizing of assets, shoot outs.

    If not then we can assume the state is inept and incompetent or that the these hostile entities are not under RF control or that it doesnt matter if they are.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  89. Lurker says:
    @Mr. Hack

    The bridge, of course, is the main transport vehicle for Russian weapons into Crimea, that eventually end up in the rest of Ukraine

    I think you’re a bit late or reposted that comment from weeks ago, Feb or March.

    From maps I’ve looked at it would appear the territory that Russia holds contiguous with the northern border of Crimea is now a minimum of 50 miles deep. Russia now holds the entire coast of the Azov Sea – now effectively a Russian lake.

    So there is now a land bridge to Crimea and safe sea transport across the Azov. The Kerch bridge may still be useful but its strategic significance has declined since Feb 24. In fact Russia could now manage without it though I’m sure they’d rather not.

    Remember, you heard it first right here

    I’ve seen it discussed in various places but as above, it’s significance is declining.

    If the Ukrainians were going to destroy it they needed to do it in the first few days. Now it will be much harder to pull off other than maybe some kind of spec ops demolition.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  90. Mr. Hack says:
    @Lurker

    You could be right. I did hear somewhere that the bridge is still the main route to transport weaponry to the southern part of Ukraine. The war is not over yet, and we don’t know if the Ukrainians will try to reclaim those lands that are now under Russian control.

  91. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Ron Unz

    Yes, I forgot to mention that. I find it extremely suspicious that the Russians wanted a full UN investigation of the Bucha Massacre, while the pro-Ukrainian West refused.

    They need some time to manipulate things.

  92. Mikhail says: • Website

    Re: https://theduran.com/apparent-poor-planning-by-putin-of-the-invasion-of-ukraine/

    Excerpt –

    Consequently, Putin had to act, because they forced Russia into a corner, and Russia’s geostrategic situation had become desperate because NATO already had expanded dangerously close to Moscow.

    His big blunder was that he should NEVER have invaded Ukraine UNTIL Ukraine would FIRST have invaded Donbas. If he had done that, then many of the billions of people who consider him a war-criminal for his having been the first to invade, would not, and would clearly understand that Zelensky is (because he would have invaded first) and that everyone who participated in Obama’s 2014 Ukrainian coup and its aftermath that has led to this war is a war-criminal, but Russia is acting instead on the basis of the existential threat to Russia that Obama started and is guilty for. I consider Obama a psychopath and the most dangerously evil person in modern times because he started the path to WW III.

    Not good strategery IMO. The corrupt, undemocratic and neo-Nazi influenced Kiev regime was getting militarily stronger – especially in the area by the Donbass rebels. Shortly before the Feb 24 Russian military action, UN affiliated OSCE observers noted that 80% of shelling was coming from the Kiev regime side since 2018. Why wait until the foe at issue becomes stronger and more difficult?

    As president, Obama was against arming the Kiev regime for perfectly practical reasoning as articulated in his Atlantic interview with Jeffrey Goldberg. While arming Ukraine, Trump didn’t goad for Russia-Ukraine confrontation like Biden. In case anyone missed it, check what Marie Yovanovitch said, relative to the difference between Biden and Trump:

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Wokechoke
    , @keypusher
  93. Mikhail says: • Website

    Zelensky-Sky News Oops Moment:

    • Replies: @utu
  94. @A123

    A to Z integral, competent analysis. Dung reading of a superior kind. Thanks.

  95. @German_reader

    Russia should, and probably will, permanently take back the entire Black Sea coast and the eastern half or more of the ukraine.

    Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia should all reach a grand bargain with Russia whereby the former countries get back their territory from the western oblasty of the ukraine, and Russia gets back the Black Sea Coast and the eastern half of the ukraine.

    • Replies: @AP
  96. Anon 2 says:

    Forgetting religion for a second, let’s take a panoramic view of the situation.
    Since Darwin we’ve known that humans can be modelled very successfully
    as weapon-making predatory primates. Regarding humans as animals
    often brings a great deal of clarity. From this point of view, Western
    Europeans (incl. Germanics, Spanish, etc) became the most successful
    predators in history, conquering most of the known world. But after
    ca. 450 years of predation, to their credit, they relinquished most of their
    spoils.

    Russians (and Americans), with their obscenely large territories, now
    remain as the only major (white) predators still in existence. Quoting
    Leopold Kohr, “Size is the root of all evil.” It’s easy to see that very large
    countries are major centers of evil. How do you become very large?
    Generally, by invading the neighboring countries, i.e., by being evil.
    There are some counterexamples, like the Louisiana Purchase
    or the Polish-Lithuanian Res Publica which became very large
    through a personal union (1569) between the Crown of Poland and the
    Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the union undertaken for the sake of
    defense against the growing power of Muscovy. Instead of using the
    concept of evil, the argument can be rephrased using game theory
    and the concept of efficiency. As the environmental concerns rise to
    the fore, it’s becoming clear that very large countries like Russia
    must be partitioned into smaller entities because they are incapable of
    efficient resource management. As Kohr said, “Whenever something is wrong,
    it is too big.” For environmental reasons we must accept that “Small
    is beautiful.” Life is about optimization (finding the Goldilocks Zone), not
    maximization.

    We’re living at a stage when humans, perhaps unconsciously, are
    beginning to get sick and tired of predation whether Russian or
    American. Hence we must help Russia, the U.S., China, India,
    perhaps Nigeria, break up into more manageable, more
    environmentally friendly pieces. No doubt this will be
    traumatic for the Russians, etc but better now than later
    because time is running out.

    • Thanks: Yellowface Anon
    • LOL: sher singh
    • Troll: RadicalCenter
  97. Seraphim says:
    @Wokechoke

    He gave enough details about his bio. He is Greek, Orthodox, living in Britain, coming from a political family that was prominent over multiple generations in Greece since the revolution of 1821 (he is the nephew of the famous singer, actress, politician Melina Mercouri – Minister of Culture from 1981 to 1994 in all PASOK governments, when she militated assiduously for the return of the Elgin Marbles to Greece). A lawyer, very educated man, with a knowledge of Russian history well above the sophomoric knowledge ventilated here by numerous commenters. As a Greek Orthodox he is almost by default a sympathizer of Russia. The double headed eagle was the symbol of Empire.

    • Replies: @AP
  98. utu says:
    @Mikhail

    A skull and crossbones emblem has been used by many military formations long before Hitler and Nazis and some formations continue to use it until now w/o any apologies to or for Hitler.

    A skull and crossbones was used as the emblem on the uniforms of Greek revolutionaries of Alexander Ypsilantis’ Sacred Band (1821) during the Wallachian uprising of 1821.

    The British Army’s Royal Lancers continue to use the skull and crossbones in their emblem, inherited from its use by the 17th Lancers, a unit raised in 1759 following General Wolfe’s death in Quebec.

    In 1792, a regiment of Hussards de la Mort (Death Hussars) was formed during the French Revolution by the French National Assembly and were organized and named by Kellerman.

    The primarily Prussian 41st Regiment New York Volunteer Infantry (mustered on June 6, 1861; mustered out December 9, 1865) wore a skull insignia

    The Portuguese Army Police 2nd Lancers Regiment use a skull-and-crossbones image in their emblem, similar to the one used by the Queen’s Royal Lancers.

    The Russian Kornilov’s Shock Detachment (8th Army) adopted a death’s head emblem in 1917. Then after World War I, the unit became Kornilov’s Shock Regiment as a part of the White Russian Volunteer Army during the Russian Civil War.

    Two Polish small cavalry units used death’s head emblem during Polish–Ukrainian War and Polish–Soviet War – Dywizjon Jazdy Ochotniczej [pl] (also known as Huzarzy Śmierci i.e. Death Hussars) and Poznański Ochotniczy Batalion Śmierci

    The United States Marine Corps Reconnaissance Battalions use the skull-and-crossbones symbol in their emblem.

    South Korea’s 3rd Infantry Division (백골부대) have a skull-and-crossbones in their emblem.

    Many United States Cavalry reconnaissance troops or squadrons utilize a skull insignia, often wearing the traditional Stetson hat, and backed by either crossed cavalry sabers, crossed rifles, or some other variation, as an unofficial unit logo. These logos are incorporated into troop T-shirts, challenge coins, or other items designed to enhance morale and esprit de corps.

    See for more: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Totenkopf

  99. AP says:
    @Seraphim

    Thanks for confirming my point that he is both highly intelligent and very biased.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  100. AP says:
    @RadicalCenter

    RadicalCenter hates his own country so much that he wants tens of thousands of Europeans to die so that his country’s rival gets stronger, though it’s questionable that it even would in this scenario.

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  101. AP says:
    @Mikhail

    Contrast between smart Mercouris and dumb Mikhail.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
  102. @AP

    He’s basically like songbird in wanting the segment of people who have Liberal ideology to suffer and die, but he’s unlike songbird in wishing for the supposedly “Conservative” rival to be stronger (songbird’s reaction isn’t territorial).

    • Replies: @AP
    , @songbird
  103. @AP

    Is NATO and especially the US willing to fight? Depends on whether the GOP mainstream (“GOPe”) or Trumpists take control in 2022-24. EU can’t move an inch without the US’ tacit approval.

  104. @Mikhail

    My bet would be Russia and a few assorted countries pulling out of UN institutions League of Nation style, followed by Trump’s US after 2024, after that the main powers staying are the EU, China and India + Iran.

  105. republic says:
    @Carlton Meyer

    He has first rate information,as he was a barrister until 2012.He went into his current occupation as an online commentator after he was disbarred for forgery.

    • LOL: sudden death
  106. Wokechoke says:
    @utu

    That patch in the tweet is the SS Tottenkopf. The guy wearing it knows it and so does Zelenskyy. So do Ukrainians reading his twitter. So do western press and so do Russians. So do you.

    The guy isn’t wearing the lancers cap badge. He’s not wearing the Punisher emblem…

    • Agree: Mikhail
  107. Wokechoke says:
    @AP

    Biased? Well no his perspective is objective. His only axe to grind is with the Turks.

    • Replies: @AP
  108. @songbird

    It was the Dominican Republic and the law was aimed at mainly Black Haitian migrants. Might try to word laws to maximum effect e.g. on all Blacks and Coloreds, basically recreating the whole Apartheid system overnight.

    • Replies: @songbird
    , @A123
  109. @Wokechoke

    lol, Colston statue not even being in US, but even if it was, whiteys there should join the toppling of it, because he was the man at the time who also provided endless blackened population streams into North America out of Africa.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  110. Wokechoke says:
    @sudden death

    Colston was far more important figure in American history than most of the Americans. Certainly had more of a long lasting effect on the place than any other individual I can think of. I thought you might enjoy.

    It’s fascinating to think about how the scion of a Sheriff family in Bristol gave Urban America such a vibrant character. Yet the nogs hate him for it.

  111. A123 says: • Website
    @Barbarossa

    In my semi-rural, MAGA Red area only the “oldest of the old” are still carrying Cold War grudges against Russia. Most have little interest the Russia/Ukraine conflict. To the extent there is a reaction, it is frequently about spending money to Secure Ukraine’s Borders While America’s Remain Open.

    All serious emotion is targeted at Biden-flation. Fuel surcharges create all sort of headaches for both buyers and sellers. Small businesses have to pass thru the expense, but customers cannot afford to pay for expensive diesel fuel.

    PEACE 😇

  112. AP says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    He also wants people in the most conservative parts of Europe to get killed in large numbers, just to spite the leftists in his own country. As myopic as it is disgusting.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  113. A123 says: • Website
    @sudden death

    Why are you posting pictures from literally decades ago?

    Al Sharpton now looks like this. [MORE]

    PEACE 😇

    [MORE]

      

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    , @S
  114. AP says:
    @Wokechoke

    I’ve noticed that when it comes to Russia (many don’t care about Russia, but among those who do), there are two types of Greeks. Some are like Balkanoid Serbs, they recognize that their own country is weak and useless whose best times are far in the past, so they live vicariously through Russia which is a large and somewhat powerful Orthodox country and also cheer on Russia if it causes problems for West. The other type of Greeks are disgusted and resentful that barbaric Slavic Russians have taken the mantle of Orthodoxy from superior Byzantium and object to this third Rome stuff. Such people are very sceptical of Russia. Alexander whose wife is Russian takes the first approach. And so he is very biased.

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  115. @AP

    there’s too much toxic Anglo-Americanization of concepts e.g. race/ethnicity, “Left vs Right/Dem vs GOP”, Wokeness in vocal Rightoids, in Dugin or Nouvelle Droit, even in some of my comments I use to being a sycophants to American Rightoid talking points. Cultural imperialism changing form and substance but not the influence and control.

    • Agree: keypusher
  116. Wokechoke says:
    @AP

    does that second group ever plan on returning to Constantinople?

  117. @utu


    It is high time we all face it: Adolf Hitler did go too far. But he had some very good ideas! We all should be solemn about the 6187532.94 victims but haven’t we had enough moments of silence already?

  118. Wokechoke says:
    @Mikhail

    The Ukrainian Question looms large here. How infiltrated is the US, France and UK?

    • Replies: @Mikhail
  119. @A123

    Does anybody know Al Sharpton’s current home address? We all know Kanye has lived in the whitest neighborhoods in southern california since the day after he got his first record deal. If Sharpton has any negroes within barking distance of his bedroom I would be gobsmacked.

    How far can a pit bull bark travel at 3:00 in the morning? Quarter mile?

  120. A123 says: • Website
    @Barbarossa

    It looks bad for Yellowface Anon’s idea of the hard decoupling into separate blocs, at least on a shorter timetable.

    I concur.

    Sudden decoupling is a destructive idea. However, YFA keeps pushing it with extreme zeal.

    MAGA Reindustrialization is coming to the U.S. This policy involves a number of long lead time builds. And, it is focused on key sectors for American national security. This will yield gradual decoupling and stop well short of 100% detachment.

    it doesn’t seem that they have a developed enough consumer base to decouple in a dramatic without excessive economic fallout.

    Gradual decoupling is also desirable for Chinese workers. Putting more resources into their economy should help the proletariat. This is a catastrophic risk for bourgeoisie, CCP rulers. As a shill for China’s Elites, YFA desperately needs to counter externally driven, MAGA decoupling. Such efforts undermine his authoritarian pay masters in Beijing.

    Perhaps this is where the nutty idea for Yellowface Anon’s “Rapid CCP Decoupling” plan comes from? If so, it is having the exact opposite impact than his goal. Gradual decoupling via MAGA Reindustrializion is clearly the better policy choice.

    PEACE 😇

  121. @Ron Unz

    I’ll pass on the generals although I will make the following observations.

    In NATO artillery, there is a command and control system which allows targets to be identified and located (by GPS) by Drones, artillery spotters and anyone else in theatre who spots one. The NCO/Bombardier choses the next target. Smart shells can adjust their course to hit the target.

    In the Russian system targets are chosen at the beginning of the engagement by a General and positioned with GPS by drones and spotters looking for them. There is much less flexibility. Russia is running out of smart shells so traditional trajectory calculation is also required. This all brings Generals closer to the front line that they might otherwise be as the General cannot risk communications being intercepted. Russian comms are bad.

    If you want objective data on the position of the front lines, the best source is NASA FIRMS or rather people using it. This is a fire detection system. It can also identify shell explosions. The explosions mostly happen along the front lines. Some large and intense civil fires get through too. An example. It’s in French but it views the whole of Ukraine. The success of the counteroffensive around Kharkiv appears to be real.

    And a close up. The Russians seem to be doing the most shelling (creeping barrages?) but the Ukrainians in this area are very well dug in. If it is Russian shelling, the barrages aren’t working – the infantry isn’t going in afterwards or they’d have captured more territory. They have captured Popasana a crucial road junction, after weeks of fighting but it is still too close to the fighting to be useful to anyone nor has been for weeks.

  122. @Philip Owen

    Not French I was writing too quickly.

  123. The question I wanted to ask today.

    How much support will Putin give Trump? Will it put Trump back in the White House?

  124. songbird says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    He’s basically like songbird in wanting the segment of people who have Liberal ideology to suffer and die

    LMAO. Rather, I’d say that I want to remove the hypocrisy from radical egalitarianism, and turn it into something spiritually purer.

  125. Wokechoke says:
    @Philip Owen

    Popasna is an observation point. Not a junction. Also, on FIRMS it is a good record of fires. There’s dense forests around Izyum, Yampol, Oskil and Liman. Plenty of fuel for uncontrolled fires at this point. the arborists and foresters have not been clearing brush or doing logging. Just a though. These forests are like tinder at certain times of the year.

    My guess is that the M777 howitzers we are hearing about and the Excalibur ammo will be counter batteried from Kursk by Iskanders with Cluster Bomb Units. The main advantage with Excalibur is that you can hit the target with 1 shell more easily without doing 4 or 5 shells in a burst or slower registering and correcting. The Russians have Radar than can detect a shell being fired and answer with a guided missile from Kursk Oblast armed with a CBU.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  126. German_reader says:
    @Philip Owen

    Will it put Trump back in the White House?

    Sure. Trump will then dissolve NATO, Russia will re-annex not just Ukraine, but also the Baltic states and much of Poland (the western parts will become German again). Putin will be tsar and rule for a thousand years, due to radical life enhancement technology, with Karlin (whose mind has been uploaded as an em or whatever it’s called) becoming his adviser on transhumanism and cosmic imperialism. Trump will also repeal all civil rights legislation in the US, so southern states can re-enact their Jim Crow laws. Robert E. Lee and Charles Lindbergh will be put on dollar bills, and Ron Unz will be made minister of information and put in charge of the internet.

    • Agree: songbird, Anatoly Karlin
    • LOL: A123, Wokechoke, S, Philip Owen
  127. A123 says: • Website
    @Philip Owen

    -A- How much support will Putin give Trump?
    -B- Will it put Trump back in the White House?

    The answers are:

    -A- NONE
    -B- NO IMPACT

    While the “Russia, Russia, Russia” myth has been fully debunked the leftovers from that set-up effectively eliminate any hope of constructive Russian involvement in the next rounds of U.S. elections. Hopefully there will be a negotiated armistice in the next 6-12 months removing Ukraine/Russia from consideration before the Presidential Primaries begin.

    Russia wins if the U.S. has incompetent leadership. Thus, there may be a case for Moscow supporting the DNC. However, if Putin endorses Not-The-VP Harris, this could easily cause her to lose.

    PEACE 😇

  128. Beckow says:
    @Philip Owen

    Good map, thanks. There is a small chance it will become a stalemate along the current lines – a replay of 2014-21 with Black See coast effectively blocked by Russia and front lines in Donbas slightly further west. A grinding bloody mess for years.

    Why is Kiev so obsessed with holding on to the territory it controls in western Donbas? By all accounts it is mostly Russian speaking (or leaning) and in any future settlement it will be a part of Donbas or useless because it is a no-man’s land.

    That suggests that Kiev prodded by the West has a maximalist goal of “winning” the war and taking over all territories it can. What would they do with the millions of Russians living there? They call them traitors and Kiev has no plans to ever give them normal minority rights (language, schools). The best case scenario is that they would want them pushed out into Russia, or expect them to run away.

    Let’s consider that for a moment: in 2022 Europe a large minority population could be expelled with inevitable bloodshed. And EU would stand by and cheer it on as “well, they deserve it, don’t they?” Or even better like AP: “Russia is big, let them go there.” And EU claims moral superiority.

    Based on that, I don’t see how Russia could ever allow it, no nation or country could. A more likely scenario is a bloody push to the end with large swaths of Ukraine becoming effectively Russian, and rump impoverished Kiev-Galicia Ukraine becoming a black hole of anger, weapons, cheap labor and cheap other things.

    Quite a “victory” the West is bringing about by its stubborn refusal to see any Russian as being fully human and deserving the same rights as any other minority in Europe. Or all that “human rights” stuff was all a ruse only to be used when convenient…

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @AP
    , @Philip Owen
  129. Wokechoke says:
    @Philip Owen

    The main question is how many white guys in the US will pick up a rifle to back Biden, Pelosi, Black Bitch, Graham and Blinken’s policies in Eastern Europe. There’s no thirst among the militarily inclined to join this fight as opposed to the easy part of selling weapon systems.

    I don’t think you realize the basic level of resentment and hostility to Biden’s coalition of POC and Liberal Whites. Nor do you have an idea of the simmering hatred toward whites by POC.

    Trump won’t be the candidate anyway. The US can’t really function a well-oiled unified polity anymore.

    • Replies: @216
  130. Wokechoke says:
    @Beckow

    Ukraine is destined to be Europe’s terrorist enclave. Pissed off Ukies with AT weapons taking a pop at locals in Paris, Berlin and Vienna who wish to avoid the shambles on the Dneiper.

  131. @Philip Owen

    Trumpism remains by and large a domestic phenomenon in terms of the support base. Putin does nothing, Dems & GOP do everything to pave the road for his 2nd presidency. Very deluded to see Trump as anything but a candidate with at least tacit support from the State Department.

    • Replies: @keypusher
  132. songbird says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    It was the Dominican Republic and the law was aimed at mainly Black Haitian migrants.

    All that is superfluous. It is better prose to leave it out.

    DR has about 150x the pop as Dominica, and the number of Dominicans (DR) in the US is 15x the population of Dominica.

    IIRC, there is actually a Dominican television station with a tower located a few miles north of Boston. And they have their own newscast, or used to. And I’m only speaking locally – there are probably at least one other or more, near NYC.

    • Replies: @songbird
  133. songbird says:
    @utu

    It actually goes back to at least the early 1600s, or probably before.

    Used to be a common funerary custom that wills would stipulate a certain amount of gold or silver coins to be set aside and made into “death his head” rings, to be given out to relatives and friends. I’ve read one such old will, one of the few surviving ones in Ireland, that named a putative ancestor of mine, as the executor.

    He was probably wearing his ring, when Cromwell came into Ireland.

  134. Ron Unz says:
    @Philip Owen

    I’ll pass on the generals although I will make the following observations.

    One reason I’m focused on those generals is that it’s an extremely clear-cut matter of reality. There’s a list of a dozen purportedly killed Russian generals—are they alive or dead or perhaps fictional?

    There was another big NYT story this morning based upon American government information mentioning the dozen general killed, so they’re clearly not backing off on it.

    For example, there’s also another article about the Russians supposedly running low on cruise missiles and other guided weapons, highlighting their less advanced warplane bombing technology. That’s obviously a much more important matter than the alleged deaths of those generals, but it’s also a much more complex, technical matter, and even if I heard the arguments on the other side, it might be difficult for me to judge who was more correct. Anyway, it’s not clear to me that our Intelligence sources would actually know the size of Russia’s cruise missile arsenal.

    But if the US government and the MSM have spent several weeks reporting the deaths of Russian generals that never happened, I’d regard their credibility as sunk, and wouldn’t pay much attention to their claims on those complex questions.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    , @Philip Owen
  135. A123 says: • Website
    @Yellowface Anon

    Most people are unaware that the Commonwealth of Dominica (pop. ~50K) exists. It is a trick question/answer in trivia contests. In common American English usage “Dominica” and “Dominican” exclusively refer to the much larger Dominican Republic (pop ~11MM).

    Haiti is a failed state and Haitian migration is a negative for Dominicans.

    Dominican culture is much more work focused than Haitian. It is this culture difference that drives the need to keep Haitians out.

    The issue has little to do with race/ethnicity.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @keypusher
  136. Beckow says:
    @Ron Unz

    It is similar to the losing party scratching an opponent to get emotional satisfaction, a common human reaction when losing. It is also a distraction: “look here, dead generals!“, to distract from the actual war. The PR campaign is very systematic – that suggests the PR guys believe the war is lost, otherwise why put so much effort into short-term propaganda?

    The number of generals killed is militarily irrelevant, but the Russian missiles’ availability is interesting. Russia has historically preferred to hold back huge reserves. They perceive dangers all around – so they hold back in case other parties join in the war. There are probably huge supplies in Kaliningrad, Caucasus, Sachalin. That’s why doubling down and further escalation by Kiev will lead to more war – and it is a war that Kiev cannot really win. The West wants to bloody Russia, they will end up destroying Ukraine.

  137. Ethiopia, which isn’t getting any headlines due to the Ukraine situation, is at a boiling point. The civil war remains on pause rather than ended. Their FX reserves at the end of 2021 have dwindled to only \$1.6 billion, enough for merely 1 month of imports. Their import bill have massively shot up since the start of the new year. Solvency is now a real challenge, spanning months and not years. Hundreds of thousands are already in famine. Sectarianism in the country is on the rise.

    Ethiopia was supposed to be a Sub-Saharan African success story. Some were foolish enough to fall for the memes.

    • Thanks: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @German_reader
  138. German_reader says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Some were foolish enough to fall for the memes.

    Lol, nasty dig at Karlin (I remember that post, tbf the president who’s waging war now had gotten a nobel peace prize recently iirc).
    Here’s something for you about climate change and India:
    https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/05/09/the-looming-climate-crisis-in-south-asia/

    • Thanks: Thulean Friend
    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
  139. AP says:
    @Beckow

    Let’s consider that for a moment: in 2022 Europe a large minority population could be expelled with inevitable bloodshed

    I’ll just note that you whine far more about the potential movement of a couple of million Russians to Russia than you did or do about the movement of tens of millions of Ukrainians away from Ukraine if Russia were to conquer most of it.

    rump impoverished Kiev-Galicia Ukraine becoming a black hole of anger, weapons, cheap labor and cheap other things.

    I know this is your dream but as Karlin has correctly noted when the war ends whatever is left of Ukraine will be rebuilt by the West (in part or in whole using money taken from Russia), capital will move from east to west*, and Ukraine will be richer than before the war. The smaller the remaining territory the wealthier it will because the money won’t go to Russian-occupied territories, and it will be quicker to rebuild and to fast-track toward EU. There will be a BRD vs DDR situation.

    *A lot of Kharkiv IT companies have already moved their offices and employees to Lviv.

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @Beckow
  140. A123 says: • Website

    Ukraine will be rebuilt by the West (in part or in whole using money taken from Russia),

    You are making a huge assumption that European WEF Elites will maintain focus on Ukraine.

    The U.S. is already shifting to domestic focus for the midterms. And, will likely have severely divided governance and near total internal focus for the following two years.

    There will be a BRD vs DDR situation.

    Russia is already providing reconstruction in Mariupol. At this point Putin’s goal appears to be taking land they can can successfully assimilate. Winning The Peace will prime this territory for BRD “West German” revival.

    The balance of Ukraine will receive little to no long-term aid once the WEF moves on to more politically exploitable scenarios.. And, unless the Ukrainian government provides a sincere armistice, they will not be able to export grain via the Black Sea. DDR “East German” malaise will fall on economically stricken Kiev led territories.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Sean
  141. @AP

    You bet on Ukraine being rebuilt on 2019 standards while the rest of the West is rushing headlong into 2030 and Russia is going the archeofuturist way?

    • Replies: @AP
  142. @Beckow

    7.5 million people in the two Oblasts in 2001. 1.5 million of them ethnic Russian. Enough to be a big nuisance. At least 1.5 million Ukrainians ethnically cleansed from the occupied parts (say 4.5m before cleansing) where the most Russians live. So now about 50/50.

    So Ukraine is fighting for territory where about half the people hate them and Russia is fighting for territory where almost everyone hates them. Exceptions exist of course.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Beckow
  143. Mikhail says: • Website
    @AP

    Contrast between smart Mercouris and dumb Mikhail.

    Dumb svido you isn’t in a good position to judge. You haven’t successfully refuted my points and proceed to take the arch troll route.

    • LOL: AP
  144. @Wokechoke

    It’s possible to filter out some fires by energy level. So only high energy fires like explosions are shown. I think the detailed map has tried to do this. I’ve wonderd about the woods west of Izyum. Are they being shelled by Ukraine or are they, as you say, dry season fires.

    Izyum is well protected with a forest one side and a river the other. It is a good place to concentrate forces. By the same token, it is a place to get cut off or trapped. There is basically only one way in to the north so supplies and escape can easily be cut off. There is only one way out to the south so an enemy expecting you can concentrate its fire and shell as you come out in a line without ever meeting your full force.

    Russia fires from Kursk, Ukraine fires back. I am not convinced there are more Iskanders left for this fight. Like the planes, they have to last another 30 years.

  145. keypusher says:
    @A123

    Dominican culture is much more work focused than Haitian. It is this culture difference that drives the need to keep Haitians out.

    The issue has little to do with race/ethnicity.

    I lived in the DR decades ago. Haitians came across to do construction, cut sugar cane, and do other dirty/dangerous jobs Dominicans would rather not do. Much like Mexicans/Central Americans in the USA.

    Dominicans despised Haitians, mostly on racial grounds. The Dominican population was mostly mulatto, the Haitian much closer to 100% African.

  146. keypusher says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    Very deluded to see Trump as anything but a candidate with at least tacit support from the State Department.

    Don’t outsmart yourself. The State Department loathes Trump every bit as much as you would expect.

    • Agree: A123
    • Troll: Yellowface Anon
  147. @Ron Unz

    The best I can offer is that Russian artillery practice makes it more likely that a general is close to the front as the centre of a Russian “Hub and Spoke” artillery battery than a NATO style “Shoot and Scoot” set up. So dead Russian generals might be more likely than Ukrainian ones. Beyond that, No.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  148. songbird says:
    @songbird

    the number of Dominicans (DR) in the US is 15x the population of Dominica.

    Whoops! Meant to say “30x.” Also had an earlier error where my output was “rate poison” instead of the intended “rat poison.”
    ___
    Heard that Fred Hoyle, the guy who coined the term “Big Bang” (not a proponent), had the idea that nostrils hang downward in order to prevent cosmic pathogens from falling into them.
    ___
    How long before China totally ditches the “two systems” model, and fuses HK with Shenzen, by building out the city blocks, until the urban grids are seamlessly connected, and the one is only a neighborhood of the other?

    Perhaps, YF Anon should join the CCP now, and save rent by moving.

  149. AP says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    Ukrainians are already cleaning up, and fixing the parts around Kiev that they have liberated.

    After the war ends, Ukraine will get massive assistance, will probably get some kind of fast track into the EU, etc. People from areas ceded to Russia will move to the western parts of the country. People in Ukraine will be highly motivated to build back their country. Russia OTOH will be dealing with sanctions and will be rebuilding whatever unpopulated and destroyed places it will have retained or grabbed in Ukraine. If Free Ukraine is small (Galicia plus Volhynia only) it should converge with Russia per capita with 10 years of peace, would take a lot longer if it’s all of Ukraine.

  150. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Wokechoke

    The Ukrainian Question looms large here. How infiltrated is the US, France and UK?

    Here meaning this thread? The bigoted Russia bashing serves the US military industrial complex and anti-Russian lobby. There’s no influential counter. In an evenly matched scenario, the public would’ve a generally different take, which might very well eventually happen, as the conflict at issue isn’t actually like the simple bad guy/good guy comic book like depiction being peddled.

    • Replies: @S
    , @Mr. Hack
  151. Ron Unz says:
    @Philip Owen

    The best I can offer is that Russian artillery practice makes it more likely that a general is close to the front as the centre of a Russian “Hub and Spoke” artillery battery than a NATO style “Shoot and Scoot” set up. So dead Russian generals might be more likely than Ukrainian ones. Beyond that, No.

    Sure, that’s exactly the sort of explanation I’d usually heard, which seemed pretty plausible, and was why I’d never doubted the claims of a dozen dead Russian generals.

    That’s why I’ll be so flabbergasted if it actually turns out to have been a two-month long hoax.

  152. keypusher says:
    @Mikhail

    His big blunder was that he should NEVER have invaded Ukraine UNTIL Ukraine would FIRST have invaded Donbas.

    Not good strategery IMO. The corrupt, undemocratic and neo-Nazi influenced Kiev regime was getting militarily stronger – especially in the area by the Donbass rebels. Shortly before the Feb 24 Russian military action, UN affiliated OSCE observers noted that 80% of shelling was coming from the Kiev regime side since 2018. Why wait until the foe at issue becomes stronger and more difficult?

    You are deceived. In fact the OSCE reported in 2021 that 85% of the violations were from the Russian/separatist side.

    https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/2/a/511327.pdf

    Happily, the amount of violence was declining rapidly. Civilian casualties dropped from 486 in 2017 to 91 to 2021 (of which: 16 killed, 75 wounded).

    If Putin had decided to wait for a Ukrainian invasion of the Donbas to justify his own invasion, he would have waited forever. I suspect he understood that perfectly well.

    • Agree: AP
    • Replies: @AP
    , @Mikhail
    , @Wokechoke
  153. AP says:
    @keypusher

    I pressed agree due to the accurate description of decline in violence (most of those killed were killed by mines, not shooting btw) but there was a non-trivial chance of an eventual Operation Storm by Ukraine. This would be about zero if Putin had simply recognised the Republics and openly moved his troops into them though. That probably would have ended most of the counter shelling too. Ukraine wasn’t going to attack the Russian army openly and directly.

  154. @German_reader

    I’ve read the article. While I largely agree that the situation is serious – perhaps even dire – I do believe the authors venture into hysteria at times.

    1) While heat waves are dangerous, cold snaps are much more lethal with far greater casualties. The so-called “wet-bulb” effect is not a major problem since humidity in most of India is moderate. Monsoon season, which is beginning very shortly, typically brings with it cooler temperatures.

    2) I agree with the authors that agricultural failure is a big potential problem, but I don’t think we’ll get mass famine. More likely, it will take the shape of an even bigger employment crisis. India is already in a silent crisis, but you won’t read about it since the privileged élite have never had it so good. For the rest, employment has been falling, despite a rapidly growing population.

    I think this underlying issue is a major factor in recent political radicalisation. Unlike the authors, I don’t think it will boomerang back to the state. Modi and Yogi (likely successor) both enjoy very high approval ratings. It will more likely take the shape of communal tensions. We can already see this in Jodhpur.

    3) Their case about Bangladesh is valid, but it should be noted that flows have receded in recent years, as Bangladesh has largely caught up with India’s prosperity, such as it is. Many Indian nationalists fiercely contest these claims, pointing to widely different electricity consumption stats as proof that Bangladesh is cooking its books.

    Yet even Amit Shah, the Indian home minister, recently admitted that the flows of illegal Bangladeshis has mostly dried up, which hints at greater economic convergence. This implies that Bangladeshi state capacity is on par with India’s, which you cannot say for Sri Lanka (their PM recently stepped down, had his house burned and now soldiers are shooting in the streets) or Pakistan (new PM accused old PM of being Hitler+Mir Jaffar. Old PM, Mr Imran Khan, has a Trump-like cult surrounding him and is now staging mass rallies calling everyone else a traitor. Unlike Trump he’s not a whimp). So I’d be more worried about Pakistan than India or even Bangladesh. Both of the latter will see migration flows pick up, but the former more probable having them uncontrolled/desperate to a greater extent.

    But aside from these nitpicks, strongly agree with their conclusions that it is utter folly to invest manifold more in weapons rather than working together to solve a fundamental issue that faces all of humanity (albeit unevenly distributed). After all, even if I live in a “winner region”, the fallout won’t spare me.

    TL;DR Less worried about mass deaths than mass unemployment and its destabilising effect on society. Sanguine about Indian political cohesion even under severe duress, can’t say same about its neighbours. Nationalism not the answer – internationalism is – but likely will be the knee-jerk reflex. Hope humanity gets enlightened leadership, but prepare for the worst.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    , @songbird
  155. German_reader says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Nationalism not the answer – internationalism is – but likely will be the knee-jerk reflex.

    I haven’t read it, but iirc Anatol Lieven has written a book where he argues that the anti-nationalism of “Green” movements is a huge problem since it will make reaching a consensus on acting against climate change much harder, or even impossible.
    Thanks for your comments about India and its neighbours.

  156. Sean says:
    @A123

    The United States is a super rich country (note the arms aid to Ukraine is not even coming out of American military’s budget) and it can continue with current or greater level of support for Ukraine even if American MSM and political establishments shift focus. Biden has said to acquesice in any kind of even pseudo victory for Putin would be too costly as it would embolden him. Preventing Russia winning in Ukraine is being framed as as necessary to prevent an attack on Nato and WW3 because Putin may be drawn into following the precedent set by Hitler being so buoyed though concessions over Czechoslovakia he blundered into a world war.

    It is a domestic political asset for Biden to defeat Putin, who rightly or wrongly the Dems hate for Trump winning, its showing all the signs for the Dems of being a war they want the Reps to be wobblily on; it will be entail being called a Russian agent of influence to wonder aloud if it is wise to bank on Putin swallowing an absolute trouncing and humiliation rather than use something that he can use without starting WW3. When it comes to thermonuclear weapons, an attack on one member of an alliance is most unlikely to be treated as an attack on all Only a country being invaded has a shred of credibility in threatening to use thermonuclear weapons against a similarly armed state (that is why Britain is given US strategic weapons such as Trident, America blowing its own brains out is the incredible action that is not a credible deterent). Putin is not going to be getting into a nuclear war by using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine so the margin of safety between what Biden is trying to inflict on him and what he is willing to accept is quite possibly nil.

    The West won’t leave Putin to his own devices in Ukraine and doing so would be big loser issue domestically. The Dems are red hot in it to win it, and time is not on Putin’s side, because the Ukrainians are going to be trained up to the new type of war plus get better at using what they have been given and will be completely switched to Western equipment in a year. Whatever reasons he started with, a stalemate now would be seen as a loss. No, Putin must re-establish international respect for Russia as a great power and to do that he must mobilise within a few months, solve technical, productive capacity, and supply chain problems well enough to get by; plus have trained up conscripts (and reservists) incorporated into a force able to hammer the cutting edge weapon festooned Ukrainian army while keeping morale high despite losing two men for every Ukrainian killed. It’s a pretty tall order.

    Another side effect of declaring Russia is in a war would be a thermonuclear detonation is then explicable in a way using one in a special operation would not be. I doubt Putin has the slightest intention of first use against anyone at present, but think he will begin to start toying with the idea of really using a battlefield thermonuclear weapon or two on the Ukrainian army by the end of 2022 at the latest. Its just another way of killing the enemy after all.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @A123
  157. @Sean

    How likely you would rate the possibility of massive demographic loss based on a MAD scenario anywhere, at this moment and at the end of this year?

    • Replies: @Sean
  158. S says:
    @A123

    Woke Big Brother: 🙂

    ‘He gazed up at the enormous face. Forty years it had taken him to learn what kind of smile was hidden beneath the dark moustache. O cruel, needless misunderstanding! O stubborn, self-willed exile from the loving breast! Two gin-scented tears trickled down the sides of his nose. But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Big Brother.’

    [MORE]

  159. 216 says: • Website
    @Wokechoke

    The resulting wars from the Arab Spring led to large numbers of angry young male extremists being “boiled off”.

    The Western lands could do the same, by encouraging (with considerable compensation) their domestic extremist population to go fight in Ukraine. Zelensky, a liberal, leaned hard into religion and nationalism when the chips were down; Macron and Ursula could do the same.

    From the other direction, a EU or US passport could be offered to anyone willing to fight in the Ukrainian military. The EU could also declare that any Russian can claim asylum.

    Trump will almost certainly be nominated and win in 2024, barring some health issue.

  160. songbird says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Nationalism not the answer – internationalism is

    Was thinking recently that globalism is so immoral and destructive, that it has so little conservancy built into it (besides some really superficial and ineffective green signaling), that it cannot last forever.

    It may not necessarily be replaced by nationalism. (though that may be a much moral system) But by an international system that has some conservancy or traditionalism built into it.

    I can’t see it reforming itself. It’s too ideological. It will be outcompeted.

    • Replies: @S
  161. Pentagon tapping out now. their budget is blown, and they can’t deliver what Biden wants on their existing funds.

    of course Congress will just have the Treasury print more dollars out of thin air to cover whatever amount Pentagon is short – i’ve been assured by US leadership this will not result in any kind of inflation that will come back to affect US citizens – but let’s put the numbers into perspective.

    even with a 700 billion a year budget, Pentagon requires additional funding to cover what the White House wants all of a sudden.

    the idea that any EU nation would be able to stop Russia is nonsense. even America requires emergency funding in less than 3 months in order to match up with a Russian campaign operating below capacity.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
  162. Beckow says:
    @Philip Owen

    ….7.5 million people in the two Oblasts in 2001. 1.5 million of them ethnic Russian. Enough to be a big nuisance…

    Why would you lie so blatantly? Here are the actual 2001 census numbers from Kiev government: http://2001.ukrcensus.gov.ua/eng/results/general/nationality/

    Donetsk: 2.7 million Ukrainians and 1.8 million Russians
    Luhansk: 1.5 million Ukrainians and 1 million Russians
    Total in Donbas: 4.2 million Ukrainians and 2.8 million Russians

    Nuisance? It is a very large “minority”, roughly like the Flemish-Walloon in Belgium. Could Belgium ban French language and schools? Would EU look the other way and cheer it on?

    Ukraine is fighting for territory where about half the people hate them and Russia is fighting for territory where almost everyone hates them.

    Not based on videos of Mariupol and other places that were taken over by Russians. The civilians seem welcoming or neutral, and any “hatred” is reserved for the Kiev Ukrainian government and army. I understand that may not be representative, but what you are saying is not backed by anything. It is a massive exaggeration or an outright lie.

    We need to keep that in mind when you claim here to be an “expert”. No expert would make a mistake like that. You have an agenda.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    , @AP
  163. @Beckow

    Thank you for the correction. I am not sure how the discrepancy arose. Adjusting for movements and resettlements I think. The 1.5m displaced Ukrainians still stands.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  164. songbird says:

    1.) Kosovans named their children after Madeline Albright, Tony Blair, and Bill Clinton.

    2.) Ukrainians are naming theirs Javelin/Javelina. Perhaps, for ease of conversion, in cases of gender dysphoria.

    3.) The Irish once named their dogs after Kruger and Cronjé, which seems the more moderate path.

  165. Beckow says:
    @Philip Owen

    …I am not sure how the discrepancy arose.

    I explained it to you: you have an agenda.

    When mistakes happen only in one direction it is not random, more likely intentional. Nothing you said “stands”, you made up numbers and then proceeded to claim attitudes based on those numbers.

    You also fail to address the core issue: would this treatment of a minority be tolerated in Europe if it was not a Russian minority?

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Philip Owen
    , @Wielgus
  166. AP says:
    @Beckow

    When mistakes happen only in one direction it is not random, more likely intentional

    Like all of your lies over the years?

  167. Beckow says:
    @AP

    ….the movement of tens of millions of Ukrainians away from Ukraine if Russia were to conquer most of it.

    I am not aware of any plan to conquer all of Ukraine, so your speculation is based on either paranoia or “what-aboutism” that you so much like to toss at others. Address what would happen if Donbas Russians were left to the tender mercies of the Kiev government. Don’t “what-about”.

    The smaller the remaining territory the wealthier it will because the money won’t go to Russian-occupied territories, and it will be quicker to rebuild and to fast-track toward EU.

    Maybe just Lviv and suburbs? That could work, smaller the better. The damn Russians can starve (but would they?)

    France and Austria have already said that “Ukraine in EU” will take “years, more likely decades“. The idea that EU will heavily subsidize rump Ukraine to spite the Russians doesn’t take into account that there are hundreds of millions of EU citizens – many relatively poor – who would object.

    Think it through – millions in aid to rump Ukraine as EU economy struggles in the next few years. And the inevitable accusations of corruption. The odds are that not much actual money would be sent – and what would be sent would be EU products and services that are unsellable elsewhere. You need to look into the details of how this “aid” usually works.

    • Replies: @AP
  168. AP says:
    @Beckow

    Nuisance? It is a very large “minority”, roughly like the Flemish-Walloon in Belgium. Could Belgium ban French language and schools

    Since the 2001 census many of those Russians in Donbas moved to Russia and many died without being replaced (Donbas had one of the lowest birth rates in the world) so the number of ethnic Russians was probably under 2 million by the time the new language laws were made.

    Could Belgium ban French language and schools

    Well, France prevented far more than 2 million people from having schools in their language. For example, the number of people speaking Breton was reduced from 1 million in 1950 to 200,000 today, thanks to France’s efforts. And unlike Russians who were immigrants to Ukraine the Breton speaking people were native to their homeland. And unlike Russians who have their own country the Bretons do not, if their language disappears in Brittany it will be gone, whereas if Russian were to disappear from Ukraine it would still flourish in Russia.

    Also, Belgium is not a county to be emulated.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    , @Mikel
  169. songbird says:

    “Afraid of their own skins” is an excellent colloquialism that has gone out of fashion, probably in part due to color-signaling.

  170. Beckow says:
    @AP

    … Belgium is not a county to be emulated.

    Right. Not Belgium, that would be inconvenient. Or Swedes in Finland, or Austrians in Italy, or Hungarians in Romania, Slovakia. No, let’s pick Bretons of the late 19th century France, why not go all the way and pick Native Americans of the same era?

    Belgium is about as “European” as it gets. If you refuse to even look at them, you don’t belong in Europe. But I think you already know that.

    The increasingly chaotic and inconsistent arguments that you (and a few others) are generating here suggests that you know you are on very thin ice: treating minorities the way you suggest treating Russians is simply wrong. Actually it borders on criminal.

    • Replies: @AP
  171. AP says:
    @Beckow

    No, let’s pick Bretons of the late 19th century France

    I specifically stuck to post World War II. I wrote: “the number of people speaking Breton was reduced from 1 million in 1950 to 200,000 today, thanks to France’s efforts”

    Now I will remind you of your own words to Mr. Owens: “When mistakes happen only in one direction it is not random, more likely intentional. Nothing you said “stands”

    Belgium is about as “European” as it gets.

    So is France.

    If you refuse to even look at them, you don’t belong in Europe.

    Did you know that Europe includes many countries and that their policies differ? You would like Ukraine to act like Belgium, but France and Latvia have had very different policies and they are also in Europe. Ukraine can choose whether it will be a European country like France or Latvia, or a European country like Belgium.

    treating minorities the way you suggest treating Russians is simply wrong

    No state secondary schools in their language (Russian classes once a day or whatever are still allowed) is simply right.

    Actually it borders on criminal.

    So in your world language policies in places like France, Latvia, United States “borders on criminal.”

    BTW, are there any schools run in the Roma language in Slovakia? I wonder if your country also has policies that according to you “border on criminal.”

    https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2017/5/10/life-in-slovakias-roma-slums-poverty-and-segregation

    “Numbering half a million and making up an estimated 10 percent of Slovakia’s population, Roma are the second-largest ethnic minority in the country.”

  172. AP says:
    @Beckow

    I am not aware of any plan to conquer all of Ukraine

    You are not aware of any plans. Were there any plans to grab Bucha and strike towards Kiev? Kharkiv? Kherson? Etc. If Russia grabbed half of Ukraine there would be at least 10 million refugees, if most of Ukraine than around 20 million. Indeed, already about 6 million or so have been displaced. You don’t whine about those 6 million but instead whine about a potential 1-2 million if Ukraine were to capture Donbas.

    Address what would happen if Donbas Russians were left to the tender mercies of the Kiev government

    The same thing that happened to Russians in Kharkiv and Mariupol that Kiev controlled: not much. They didn’t have secondary schools with Russian as the primary language of instruction. Putin OTOH has killed a large number of them.

    If Russians in Donbas don’t want to live under Kiev’s rule they will be free to move to their ancestral homeland Russia, they already have Russian passports. It will mean higher salaries for them, fewer pro-Russian voters in Ukraine, more ethnic Russians and population boost for Russia itself. Everybody wins.

    “The smaller the remaining territory the wealthier it will because the money won’t go to Russian-occupied territories, and it will be quicker to rebuild and to fast-track toward EU.”

    Maybe just Lviv and suburbs? That could work, smaller the better. The damn Russians can starve (but would they?)

    France and Austria have already said that “Ukraine in EU” will take “years, more likely decades“.

    More likely decades, but not certainly.

    I think it will depend on the size of Ukraine. If Ukraine wins the war and gets all of its territory back so it’s a country of 30-35 million people, it may indeed take 20 years (decades). If Russia takes everything but Galicia, Volhynia and Transcarpathia (8 million people) this small Ukraine would probably be in the EU within 5-10 years. It would fairly quickly become just another Visegrad country. If it is is half of Ukraine (West and Center, including Kiev – about 18 million people) it will probably be somewhere in between, 10 to 20 years to join EU.

    The idea that EU will heavily subsidize rump Ukraine to spite the Russians doesn’t take into account that there are hundreds of millions of EU citizens – many relatively poor – who would object.

    America and the EU will probably mostly use money from seized Russian assets and frozen Russian central bank reserves to rebuild Ukraine and fix the damage caused by Russia. Clearly the war was illegal and this is what happens. They are already talking about it:

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/charles-michel-sell-seized-russian-assets-to-rebuild-ukraine/

    Easing sanctions against Russia might also be contingent on some tax on all Russian trade that would go towards restoring the damage Russia did in Ukraine with its illegal attack.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @Beckow
  173. Mikhail says: • Website
    @keypusher

    See:

    &

    https://nationalinterest.org/feature/will-tensions-ukraine-boil-over-200725

    Excerpt –

    Events of the last few days suggest that the absence of a direct U.S. military backup has not stayed the hand of the Ukrainian military. They have engaged in a big escalation. This is denied by the Ukrainian authorities and by the U.S. State Department, but the maps published by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) monitors, detailing explosions in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions on February 18 and February 19-20, clearly suggest the contrary. Those big red splotches on the map around Donetsk and Luhansk show an intense bombardment. Overall, there were over 1400 shell and mortar detonations on February 18, about 2,000 explosions over the next two days. From the two maps, it looks like about two-thirds to three-fourths were on the Russian side of the line. This level of activity marks a big change. In early February, the previous thirty-day average was around sixty explosions per day.

    Related Links –

    https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/512629

    https://www.osce.org/files/2022-02-20-21%20Daily%20Report_ENG.pdf?itok=82567

    ——————————–

    With some NATO members’ support, the Kiev regime has been getting militarily stronger, including along the lines by the Donbass rebels. There was open talk within Kiev regime circles of a Croat Operation Storm like action on Dnbass, coupled with the surprising Azeri takeover of much of Nagorno-Karabakh.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Philip Owen
    , @keypusher
  174. @Beckow

    What mistreatment? They are settlers in another country brought there by Empire. They should learn the local language. As it happens I live in a bilingual society. When I was young, the only language available in the public sphere was English. Now Welsh has equal(ish) status. Food packets still don’t have instructions in Welsh for example. The Russians in the Donbass has their own schools, they could watch Russian tv, local councils could conduct their business in Russian. Some did so. The Greeks of Donetsk had no such priviliges for example. The biggest complaint Russian nationalists could come up with in 2013 was that the local councils conducting their business in Russian should write to the Federal Ministries in Kiev in Russian. For colonialist settlers left behind by their empire that is not a huge demand.

    My agenda is anti Imperialism. It’s time for Russia to decolonize.

  175. AP says:
    @Mikhail

    The tweet you linked to shows only 36 civilian casualties in rebel-held territory in 2021, a decrease of 37.1% from the previous year.

    The same year there were 45 homicides in Novgorod oblast whose population is about 1/3 that of rebel-held Donbas:

    https://velikiynovgorod.bezformata.com/listnews/oblasti-snizilos-kolichestvo-ubiystv/101918568/

    For this, Russia launched a war in which thousands of civilians have been killed, a disproportionate percentage of whom were ethnic Russians.

    • Disagree: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Mikhail
  176. S says:
    @Mikhail

    The bigoted Russia bashing serves the US military industrial complex and anti-Russian lobby. There’s no influential counter. In an evenly matched scenario, the public would’ve a generally different take…

    True. Of course it’s not close to being evenly matched, though, as you know.

    WT Stead, a close associate of Cecil Rhodes, declared in the first chapter of his 1902 book The Americanization of the World regarding the US/UK and their new ‘special relationship’, they (US/UK) are the ‘world conquerers’, the ‘supreme power’ over the Earth, summing it up with ‘the lion’s share of the world is ours.’ Accordingly, since that time, the US/UK only enters these world wars with overwhelming force. A ‘fair fight’ doesn’t even enter into the picture.

    The US/UK would like nothing better than Russian forces to fire upon their personnel and, or, those of Nato. This is something they are attempting to goad Russia into doing. They want to get this world war going, pronto!

    For anyone, and not ‘just’ Russia, who does not like this situation, I can only suggest finding a way to succesfully resist which does not use physical violence.

    Easier said than done, to be sure.

    the conflict at issue isn’t actually like the simple bad guy/good guy comic book like depiction being peddled.

    I agree. Speaking of which, being that the United States thus far is literally recycling/copying WWII in it’s lead up to WWIII, ie its army uniforms, ‘lend lease’, etc, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we see the image below once again, albeit slightly altered as in ‘Putinized’ and Russified.

  177. @Mikhail

    The security council meeting was filmed days in advance. 2 days shelling wasn’t an issue.

  178. Mikhail says: • Website
    @AP

    Talk about whataboutism.

    As for disproportionate, a disproportionate number of Ukrainians have been killed since the added dynamic of the Russian military action – something that should’ve been averted, but wasn’t on account of neocon/neolib trouble making.

    Upon the Soviet breakup, Russia pursued a reasonable peaceful advocacy regarding NATO expansion and accepting a neutral Ukraine within its Soviet drawn boundary.

    Post-Soviet Russia openly inquired about joining NATO and was rebuffed. Russia was the first to console the US following the 911 tragedy and proceeded to offer the US confidential Intel on Afghanistan and Russian airspace for US military transport purposes.

    This position by Russia wasn’t reciprocated. The West took a zero-sum game approach against Russia as evidenced by (in one of other examples) how it rejected the Yanukovych era Russian and Ukrainian offer to jointly workout Ukraine’s development with the West. Shortly thereafter, Yanukovych was overthrown by a regime, top heavy with nationalists, that led to Crimea’s reunification with Russia and rebellion in Donbass.

    The Kiev regime’s and West’s stonewalling of the UN approved Minsk Protocol, calling for Donbass autonomy and reluctance to have Ukraine as a militarily neutral state led to the Russian military action. After earnest efforts of diplomacy failed, Putin felt compelled to nip in the bud a security concern before it really got out of hand.

    In time, a greater number of Ukrainians might begin questioning Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as someone who (under the influence of some nationalists) further instigated and prolonged a conflict, whose end result could’ve occurred on better terms for Ukraine, without the deaths, displacement and destruction, resulting from Russia’s military action – which is related to the ongoing war like situation in Donbass over the past eight years.

    Putin could be increasingly viewed as someone who for years had tried to reasonably see a peaceful implementation of the 2015 UN approved Minsk Protocol, along with not wanting to see Ukraine become a NATO beachhead.

    • Replies: @AP
  179. Mikel says:
    @AP

    For example, the number of people speaking Breton was reduced from 1 million in 1950 to 200,000 today, thanks to France’s efforts.

    That is true but the most important factor in the decline of minority languages (patois) in France during the last generations has been the gradual abandonment of those languages by their speakers, who found it more useful to speak and pass on to their children a cosmopolitan language like French instead of their much less useful local tongues.

    France does have an old tradition of imposing a common language on its territory in order to build a strong nation but the fact is that this effort went hand in hand with the offer of assimilating to a prestigious nation, empire and, these days, civilizational sphere that most people accepted rather voluntarily.

    I guess this is the main reason why separatism has always been stronger in the Spanish Basque Country than in the French one. It’s just not equally attractive to belong to a postrate metropolis than of one that still maintains its prestige. Though this could change in the future if current demographic trends continue in France.

    Some testimonies of French repression of the Basque language but also of how people slowly stopped teaching it to their children:

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Euskara_iparraldean.ogv

    My guess is that Ukraine will not be able to rely only on language laws to become monolingual. It will also have to offer a more attractive project to its Russian (and other minorities) speakers than than of its neighbors. If it survives the current war, that is. It looks like it will.

    • Agree: AP
    • Replies: @AP
  180. AP says:
    @Mikhail

    Talk about whataboutism.

    That described your entire post.

    In your stupidity you linked to a tweet that showed that in 2021 there were only 36 casualties in rebel-held territory in Donbas (these casualties weren’t even all deaths btw). This was a 37.1% drop from the previous year. In fact, it showed that every single year the number of casualties was going down. The problem was resolving itself.

    The UN so far is counting 3,300 dead civilians in this war (I don’t think they’ve gone into Mariupol to count yet). How many you figure are Russians? 1,000? 1,500? So to end a situation with 36 dead + injured mostly Russians, Putin launched a war that has killed about 3,300 people of whom probably 1,000 or more were Russians.

    Others can see the magnitude of stupidity for the excuse of “saving lives.”

    Bush invaded Iraq before it “got out of hand”, Russia invaded Ukraine before it “got out of hand.” America was rich and strong enough to come out of its invasion debacle a little poorer and a less respected, but still okay. Will Russia?

    • Replies: @Mikhail
  181. Mikhail says: • Website
    @AP

    Bush invaded Iraq before it “got out of hand”, Russia invaded Ukraine before it “got out of hand.” America was rich and strong enough to come out of its invasion debacle a little poorer and a less respected, but still okay. Will Russia?

    Bush did a white powder lie on Iraq that led to many more deaths than what can be attributed to the Russian action in Ukraine.

    Iraq not a threat to the US. US military still in Iraq, despite Iraq’s parliament having asked for the US military to leave more than once.

    Ukraine borders Russia, with NATO being an unnecessary threat to Russia for the reasons I matter of fact noted.

    What you ignore for the obvious reason –

    As for disproportionate, a disproportionate number of Ukrainians have been killed since the added dynamic of the Russian military action – something that should’ve been averted, but wasn’t on account of neocon/neolib trouble making.

    Upon the Soviet breakup, Russia pursued a reasonable peaceful advocacy regarding NATO expansion and accepting a neutral Ukraine within its Soviet drawn boundary.

    Post-Soviet Russia openly inquired about joining NATO and was rebuffed. Russia was the first to console the US following the 911 tragedy and proceeded to offer the US confidential Intel on Afghanistan and Russian airspace for US military transport purposes.

    This position by Russia wasn’t reciprocated. The West took a zero-sum game approach against Russia as evidenced by (in one of other examples) how it rejected the Yanukovych era Russian and Ukrainian offer to jointly workout Ukraine’s development with the West. Shortly thereafter, Yanukovych was overthrown by a regime, top heavy with nationalists, that led to Crimea’s reunification with Russia and rebellion in Donbass.

    The Kiev regime’s and West’s stonewalling of the UN approved Minsk Protocol, calling for Donbass autonomy and reluctance to have Ukraine as a militarily neutral state led to the Russian military action. After earnest efforts of diplomacy failed, Putin felt compelled to nip in the bud a security concern before it really got out of hand.

    In time, a greater number of Ukrainians might begin questioning Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as someone who (under the influence of some nationalists) further instigated and prolonged a conflict, whose end result could’ve occurred on better terms for Ukraine, without the deaths, displacement and destruction, resulting from Russia’s military action – which is related to the ongoing war like situation in Donbass over the past eight years.

    Putin could be increasingly viewed as someone who for years had tried to reasonably see a peaceful implementation of the 2015 UN approved Minsk Protocol, along with not wanting to see Ukraine become a NATO beachhead.

    • Replies: @AP
  182. cassandra says:
    @Barbarossa

    There’a a map circulating, showing the penetration vetors of the German army in 1941-2 into slavic eastern Europe during Barbarossa (I mean the Operation, not to be confused with yourself, the poster 😉 The main difference between that invasion and the current one that Putin fears is not geographical, but temporal: the former was a Blitzkrieg, while the current is a Schleichkrieg. Change my mind.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
  183. That guy is being immortalized:

    If he survives the war he will be famous.

  184. cassandra says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I hesitate to attach too much importance to your science “metrics” without some further validation. People mistakenly feel that once a number has been attached to a phenomenon that it’s understood, but quantifying science by counting outputs, whether publications or inventions, has injected perverse incentives to crank out all sorts of dreck, and the peer review process has compromised objectivity in fields even slightly controversial politically. I’d be very surprised if this corruption has developed uniformly across nations, or that the numbers in the Nature table you cite have equal significance.

    I do take your point about it being an advantage to have access to foreign technologies. But then again, Kaspersky makes a pretty good security system within Russia, and necessary technologies developed in design bureaus without hoopla can be just as good as those put together with financialization and marketing. The sub-rosa development of radar in WWII is a historical example.

  185. A123 says: • Website
    @Sean

    The United States is a super rich country (note the arms aid to Ukraine is not even coming out of American military’s budget) and it can continue with current or greater level of support for Ukraine even if American MSM and political establishments shift focus.

    “Can continue ” and “Will continue” are very different questions.

    The current GOP leadership in the House aligns with the establishment GOP(e). Expect a wholesale clear out of these holdovers after the midterms to make way for MAGA leadership. They will push for major changes in funding to correct situations like this.

      

    The Senate will not be so dramatic, but the new MAGA GOP will displace some of the GOP(e) holdovers in that body. Mitch McConnell will have to make substantial concessions to the MAGA wing if he wants to remain Majority Leader.

    It is a domestic political asset for Biden to defeat Putin, who rightly or wrongly the Dems hate for Trump winning, its showing all the signs for the Dems of being a war they want the Reps to be wobblily on;

    Not-The-President Biden and Authoritarian Leftoids want to attack on these issues, however the fact that the DNC relied on fraudulent misinformation is now out in the population. The more they push this issue, the faster they will lose swing voters.

    Doubling down on fiction after being caught cheating is a losing position for the Fake Stream Media [FSM]. Viewership and trust are at all time lows.

    The West won’t leave Putin to his own devices in Ukraine and doing so would be big loser issue domestically. The Dems are red hot in it to win it, and time is not on Putin’s side,

    There is a huge limit to what can be supplied in the run up to the U.S. Midterms. Dipping into reserve stocks does not short specific bases and fronts. However that anonymous bucket is more or less depleted. Even if contracts are signed now, there will be a significant lag before newly constructed equipment becomes available.

    Will Not-The-President Biden pull equipment out of U.S. service to transfer it to foreign troops? Doing so will generate a huge boost for MAGA candidates.
    ______

    Europe needs Russian oil, and even more critically gas. The EU Elites will be outraged, but they cannot stop Europe from sending huge amounts of money to Putin in return for criticially needed resources.

    Both Time and Money are on Putin’s side.

    Putin has the slightest intention of first use against anyone at present, but think he will begin to start toying with the idea of really using a battlefield thermonuclear weapon or two on the Ukrainian army by the end of 2022 at the latest. Its just another way of killing the enemy after all.

    Why would Putin use a nuke when he is winning without them?

    Pushing across open land to retake Mariupol would require cohesive full armor and mechanized infantry. There is no indication that the Ukrainians can field such an offensive force and the promised equipment will not fix this critical weakness.

    One can see why Zelensky might be desperate for an atomic “false flag” event. However, it is far too easy to trace material back to its source based on the impurities. It is scientifically impossible to fake someone else’s Uranium or Plutonium.
    ______

    If Ukraine begins taking serious steps towards a negotiated armistice, they can limit the land lost and the damage to their economy. This would be the smart move, but it does not look lime Zelensky will take it.

    If Ukraine insists on fighting, the terrain in southern Ukraine is highly favorable to Russian military equipment, training, and doctrine. At this point Putin has little interest in crossing the Dnieper in a major fashion. However, if this drags on, completing the capture of the Black Sea coast and hooking up with Transnistria has huge strategic advantages for Russia.

    PEACE 😇

  186. AP says:
    @Mikel

    I don’t think Ukraine will become monolingual. Currently it is partially bilingual: almost all primary Russian-speakers are also fluent in Ukrainian and most primarily Ukrainian-speakers are also fluent in Russian, though Russian is disappearing in western Ukraine where there really are a lot of people under 30 who don’t speak it, they aren’t just pretending.

    Eventually you will have a country with Ukrainian as the main language of communication, in which 25% speak only Ukrainian + some western language (German, English), 50% speak Ukrainian, Russian and some western language and 25% speak Ukrainian and Russian only (I’m not taking into account some small percentage of monolingual villagers).

    This war has made Russia more unpopular and has solidified the belief even among most Russian-speakers that it is good to remove Russian as a state language. But most of them will probably not break the habit and will continue to speak it amongst themselves.

    There is less tension than people like Beckow claim, because it really is easy for Russian-speakers to learn Ukrainian, it isn’t like Latvian and Russian but like Portuguese or Italian and Spanish.

  187. S says:
    @songbird

    Sometimes people as individuals have a rough go of things, and, think if only I didn’t have to deal with ‘self’, or, even better, if the self didn’t exist at all. They may abuse drugs, drink excessively, or cut themselves, in a forlorn attempt to escape the self. But, that’s not reality, as the ‘self’ does indeed exist. Better to work within that reality (in cooperation with other individuals) than the self destructive phantasm that self doesn’t exist, or, can be made to not exist.

    Same with the extended self of a people, ie nations and ethnicities. Yes, there have been major problems between peoples, just as there are and have been between individuals. Just as destroying the self, or, pretending it doesn’t exist, is escapist and isn’t the answer regarding problems of the self and inter-personal relationships, the same applies to peoples, and their problems. Saying peoplehood (ie nationality) is the problem in otherwords is extremely simplistic thinking, and also escapist.

    Having said that, as was said elsewhere on one of these Karlin threads, a land specially designated for ‘refugees’ should long ago have been set up, if only to stop nation wreckers cynically using them (and, yes, they are that cynical) as the Ukranians have been being used of late.

    And, also should have been done long ago, set up a land with abundant and plentiful resources for those who simply don’t care about peoplehood.
    As their mantra is ‘everyone is just the same’ and ‘love conquers all’, they can prove it there.

    Amply document the fact about it having abundant resources, not for their sake (as these people often tend to be delusional imo), but for everyone else’s. From the start they will be screaming ‘you want to kill us all’! Five hundred years from now they will be screaming ‘you want to kill us all!’ In case you should start believing them you can always check the records and see they started out with abundant resources, and (likely) have since destroyed the place from their proflicacy and irresponsibility. What started off for them as ‘New Utopia’ will (I think) in time be called ‘New Favala’ by everyone else.

    That would be fair to all, unlike the present system of deliberate peoplehood and nation wrecking, which isn’t (and hasn’t) been fair historically to the probable majority of people on the planet.

    Such a path would be a ‘nightmare scenario’ for many a self declared ‘progressive’ as individuals. It would mean no more parasiting off of the responsible majority for them. Hell indeed!

    From the 1853 book The New Rome on this subject:

    ‘Nationality is the root of war. Nations, so soon as they become self-conscious, are associations of people for the purpose of taking away other people’s land; a nation may be defined to be an organization for making war on other nations, killing their subjects and pillaging their property, or of robbing them of their substance by the peaceful means of commercial and industrial competition. Wars require armies; recurring wars, standing armies; and armies, generals ; generalissimos are monarchs; and thus the fictions of nationality are the causes of all the woes under which Europe is struggling.’The New Rome (1853) – pg 67

    https://archive.org/details/newrome00poes/page/66/mode/2up

    • Replies: @songbird
  188. cassandra says:
    @Wokechoke

    I have to laugh: I got into an argument once with a blowhard over the double-headed eagle on a kopek. He INSISTED that the coin must have been Austro-Hungarian, because HE KNEW that it was the Hapsburg symbol; this despite the fact that the engraved letters on the coin were Cyrillic. He still wouldn’t give up.

  189. Wokechoke says:
    @keypusher

    did that drop have anything to do with the Plague Year?

    • Replies: @keypusher
  190. @prime noticer

    i’ve been assured by US leadership this will not result in any kind of inflation that will come back to affect US citizens

    Ha Ha yes, I’m quite sure that is what they are saying.

    It’s funny because when the inflationary cycle started taking off the Feds swore up and down that there was no inflation at all! When it became undeniable they explained it away as insignificant and short term inflation. Now they don’t seem to say much about it. All the while it was painfully obvious that the inflation was real and significant.

    It does make me wonder how constrained the Feds will be in their money printing for fear of stoking the inflation even further. I’m betting that the millions of American’s that were on the brink financially before the cycle of inflation and surging energy prices can look to little relief from the Federal Government since they already shot their wad with the Covid stimulus and can’t afford to do so again.
    I suspect that by fall it’s going to be looking rather grim for a lot of folks.

  191. Mr. Hack says:
    @Mikhail

    In an evenly matched scenario, the public would’ve a generally different take, which might very well eventually happen, as the conflict at issue isn’t actually like the simple bad guy/good guy comic book like depiction being peddled.

    And you cynically try to imply that such an “evenly matched scenario” exits in Putin’s Russia? Where one can garner a lengthy jail term just for mentioning the word “war” when writing or talking about Ukraine? Where no independent TV stations exist? Where critics of Putin’s war are routinely rounded up and put behind bars? I got a real big kick at seeing this news item today. Two former employees of LENTA newgroup in Russia were able to sabotage and modify its program guide with substitutions that were all highly critical of Putler and his stupid war in Ukraine:

    LENTA story starts at 1:15. Watch the whole clip.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
  192. keypusher says:

    did that drop have anything to do with the Plague Year?

    It had been dropping steadily since 2017 (check the link I posted), and 2017 was a fraction of 2014-2015.

    This is all readily available information.

    Using a link to a UN report that Mikhail posted, conflict-related civilian deaths by year:

    2014: 2,084
    2015: 955
    2016: 112
    2017: 117
    2018: 58
    2019: 27
    2020: 26
    2021: 25

    https://ukraine.un.org/sites/default/files/2022-02/Conflict-related%20civilian%20casualties%20as%20of%2031%20December%202021%20%28rev%2027%20January%202022%29%20corr%20EN_0.pdf

    Putin’s invasion has killed thousands of civilians since February 24.

  193. @cassandra

    I actually think that Putin was not irrational to imagine that NATO continued in many ways to be an overtly anti-Russian alliance.

    It is complicated by the fact that there have been many different forces and opinions at work within the NATO alliance. Certainly as AP mentioned a country like Germany or France has been more inclined to accommodate Russia while the US has deteriorated relations with Russia.

    Irregardless of individual state’s attitudes the overall trajectory of NATO has been to continually expand toward the borders of Russia. Some of the more Russia-phobic commenters here have stated that it is within the rights of NATO to take in whatever members that the alliance chooses. This is true, but that doesn’t mean that Russia cannot or should not infer anything from those actions.

    When one imagines a Russian dominated military alliance slowly encircling America it becomes clear how many Russians see NATO. That theoretical Russian alliance could say that there were no hostile intentions till they were blue in the face and American’s wouldn’t buy it. Military alliances imply that there is something to ally against, and Russia is the only plausible foil for NATO, especially given NATO’s history.

  194. keypusher says:
    @Mikhail

    There were 75 or so civilian deaths in 2019, 2020, and 2021 combined. Funny that Mate left that out of his tweet.

    Don’t even pretend that provides a causus belli.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  195. Wokechoke says:
    @keypusher

    There’s several complications. The British were building a naval base in Azov or near Kherson, I forget which. The British were conducting joint exercises in Ukraine. We all know what that means and the British did conduct a demontrative raid on Sevastapol in 2021. War was coming.

    TBF that’s a Casus Belli.

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @keypusher
    , @Philip Owen
  196. keypusher says:
    @Wokechoke

    Reposting as a reply to you, sorry.

    It had been dropping steadily since 2017 (check the link I posted), and 2017 was a fraction of 2014-2015.

    This is all readily available information.

    Using a link to a UN report that Mikhail posted, conflict-related civilian deaths by year:

    2014: 2,084
    2015: 955
    2016: 112
    2017: 117
    2018: 58
    2019: 27
    2020: 26
    2021: 25

    https://ukraine.un.org/sites/default/files/2022-02/Conflict-related%20civilian%20casualties%20as%20of%2031%20December%202021%20%28rev%2027%20January%202022%29%20corr%20EN_0.pdf

    Putin’s invasion has killed thousands of civilians since Februar

  197. @AP

    For what it’s worth, I agree that the war has pushed countries like Germany and France into a much more anti-Russian tack and the Ukrainian NATO membership is more likely.

    I also agree that Germany and France felt quite averse to war with Russia and probably hoped the whole thing would be over quickly so that business as usual could resume. However, their attitudes were hardly the only ones within the alliance.

    It sounds very nice and rational to posit that Ukraine was unprepared militarily for NATO, had too much corruption, etc. But there is a reason I keep bringing up Montenegro. It’s not quite as corrupt as Ukraine, but it’s quite bad and it’s military is considerable more laughable than Ukraine’s. If Putin was concerned about profligate NATO expansion how should he have interpreted Montenegro’s addition? It certainly would not allay any fear’s Putin may have had since Ukraine would arguably be a more reasonable addition to NATO than Montenegro and if a silly little state like Montenegro could get in why would Ukraine be out of the question?

    Given US outsize influence in NATO and dramatically deteriorating relations between Russia and the US, it doesn’t seem at all unreasonable for Putin to imagine that France’s of Germany’s reservations to Ukrainian membership would eventually be overcome.

  198. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Mr. Hack

    And you cynically try to imply that such an “evenly matched scenario” exits in Putin’s Russia? Where one can garner a lengthy jail term just for mentioning the word “war” when writing or talking about Ukraine? Where no independent TV stations exist? Where critics of Putin’s war are routinely rounded up and put behind bars? I got a real big kick at seeing this news item today. Two former employees of LENTA newgroup in Russia were able to sabotage and modify its program guide with substitutions that were all highly critical of Putler and his stupid war in Ukraine

    More so than in Kiev regime controlled Ukraine. As an example, Andrey Kortunov heads the Russian International Affairs Council, which is funded and perhaps (need to verify) affiliated with the Russian Foreign Ministry. Kortunov has openly second guessed the need and conduct of the Russian military action taken.

    In comparison, Kiev regime media and body politic is more censored.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  199. @AP

    Keep on riling up the Russian public with mass confiscations, like Versailles…

    • Replies: @AP
  200. Mikhail says: • Website

    Trashy NPR Segment

    Re: https://www.npr.org/2022/05/10/1097843448/why-white-nationalists-identify-with-a-russian-church-and-vladimir-putin

    Filed under religious bigotry and In line with NPR’s general spin of Russia-Ukraine. Brave not journalism to unfairly mudsling against a group having no media/political clout.

    Here’s the website of the Russian Orthodox Church Outside Russia (ROCOR):

    https://www.synod.com/synod/indexeng.htm

    No sign whatsoever of what’s said in the above linked NPR piece. FYI, Putin has over the years promoted multi-ethnic unity and opposition to ethnic extremism. He did so at the recent Victory Day parade. The ROCOR includes individuals of numerous ethnic groups.

    I know of no ROCOR congregants involved in activity associated with the September 11 and January 6 dates.

    Probably little chance of NPR doing a feature on Ukrainian churches that have displayed the black and red pro-Stepan Bandera flag. It’s extremely demagogic to pretend that bigotry and extremism isn’t evident in some Ukrainian and some other houses of worship.

    And yeah neo-Nazism in Ukraine is a reality, contrary to the propaganda at NPR and some other venues.

    https://www.antiwar.com/blog/2022/02/27/russia-ukraine-coverage-update-what-western-mass-media-downplays/

    • Replies: @Coconuts
  201. @Sean

    Explain why most of the West and Russia will live thru everything.

    • Replies: @Sean
  202. keypusher says:
    @Wokechoke

    TBF that’s a Casus Belli.

    I prefer the Ukrainian spelling.

    The deal signed between the UK and Ukraine last year agreed the joint production of eight fast missile warships, the training of Ukrainian naval personnel, and the sale of two refurbished Sandown-class mine countermeasure vessels.

    My mistake, that’s definitely worth killing thousands of civilians over.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1560360/putin-Russia-British-naval-base-sea-of-azov-Ukraine-invasion

  203. The second liberation is coming:

  204. Mr. Hack says:
    @Mikhail

    But Mickey, Ukraine is a country that is at war right now. It’s understandable that at such a time, a more controlled media would be the norm where the enemy, that is killing even civilians, should not be able to wage a propaganda war. Russia is not at war, so why has it shut down all independent TV stations, put journalists in jail, and done something as stupid as assign jail time when making communications about Ukraine?

    Besides, you were lamenting the situation in the US, not in Ukraine? 🙂

    Admit it Mickey, because of your unflinching kremlin stooge antics, you’re loathe to ever criticize Russia, even today when its authoritarian inclinations are being given full vent., to the amazement o the whole world. Even China, I hear is dismissing business dealings with Russia because of its cringe world image.

    • LOL: Mikhail
  205. Mikhail says: • Website

    Even China, I hear is dismissing business dealings with Russia because of its cringe world image.

    From the US government,which admits to spreading Russia-Ukraine disinformation for the purpose of trying to undermine Russia’s effort?

    Media and body politic in Kiev regime controlled Ukraine were already noticeably restricted beforehand.

    Yes, the US mass media situation is pretty bad as has been noted with numerous examples.

    • LOL: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  206. Pixo says:
    @Ron Unz

    MoA seems to just parrot Russia’s absurd propaganda.

    First the blogger parroted the “Russia won’t invade” lie Putin told him.

    Then lots of predictions of a quick Russian victory and hubristic fantasies of dismembering Ukraine into a rump “agricultural state”.

    For example, in mid-march:

    “Russia’s forces are now in their routine mode. They will now grind down what is left of the Ukrainian forces.”

    His March 25 post:

    “ Yesterday an air attack or missile strike destroyed the largest Ukrainian fuel depot left near Kiev. The Ukrainian army will soon lose its mobility (if it hasn’t yet done so).”

    “Kharkiv is about to get encircled.”

    “Dnipro is a strategic target that the Russian forces will like to isolate or take by coming up from the south on both sides of the Dnieper river as well as from the north.”

    By that time smarter observers such as myself realized that the invasion was a no-win fiasco for Russia. But MoA just dug in.

    He also peppers his posts with constant dumb references to “nazis.”

    • LOL: AP
    • Replies: @utu
    , @Ron Unz
  207. AP says:
    @Mikhail

    As for disproportionate, a disproportionate number of Ukrainians have been killed since the added dynamic of the Russian military action

    Apparently you don’t even know what the word “disproportionate” means.

    Russians are no more than 10% of the Ukrainian population. Russia has been killing people around Kiev (mostly Ukrainians) but also Kharkiv (30% Russian) and Donbas. The city of Mariupol where the victims are not yet counted but are probably in the thousands was 44% Russian. It was the most Russian city in Ukraine and Russia attacked and in the process utterly destroyed it.

    So the places in Ukraine where Russia has killed the most people have a much higher percentage of ethnic Russian inhabitants than does Ukraine as a whole. Moreover, Russia is transferring or deporting many of the survivors from places like Mariupol (largely ethnic Russians) into Russia:

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/04/20/world/mariupol-residents-russia/

    Putin is just ethnically cleansing Ukraine of its Russians through killing them or through moving them in trains, as you make excuses for him because of you being the dumb tool that you are.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Troll: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Mikhail
  208. AP says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    Russian public are pleased that the Russian oligarchs got their stuff confiscated, it’s one thing the West does that doesn’t anger the Russian masses. I doubt they’ll care if the money goes to Ukraine.

    Comparisons to Versailles are unwarranted because Germany accepting all the blame for World War I was unfair and a lie, while Russia clearly invaded Ukraine. And keeping the confiscated share of Russia’s reserves (which are not even all of the reserves) is hardly as crippling as what was done to Germany.

  209. Mr. Hack says:
    @Mikhail

    disinformation for the purpose of trying to undermine Russia’s effort?

    And if you’re not undermining “Russia’s efforts” Mickey, but promoting them like you so often sleazily do, then you actually share in the blood of so many Ukrainian civilians, women, children and the elderly. No amount of soap or washing your hands will ever get those blood stained hands clean.


    Take a close look at what you’re supporting, Mickey. 🙁

    • Replies: @Mikhail
  210. Sean says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    Because when both sides have nuclear weapons, those weapons are a deterrent to either power first using them and initiating a tit for tat escalation. Great powers have the capacity to fight conventionally win or lose, and although there is always the theoretical option to go nuclear this is only a temptation when being defeated; yet if they lose conventionally and capitulate the country is going to be merely occupied not destroyed. The West is inevitably going to win any conventional WW3 in the long run, so they have zero incentive for first use of nuclear weapons. None of the forgoing applies to Russian use against Ukraine, which is why I think Putin is gong to end up using a battlefield nuclear weapon to knock the stuffing out of the Ukrainian army.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    , @Yellowface Anon
    , @S
  211. Wielgus says:
    @Beckow

    The treatment of Russian speakers in the Baltic states drew some muted pro forma protests from the EU but these states were still accepted into the EU. Things like commemorating Waffen-SS units as heroes met the same response in oh so anti-Nazi Europe.

  212. Pixo says:

    Here’s a collection of 2021 TFR rates, with 2019 and 2020 also included. Ukraine fell from a relatively healthy 1.62 in 2019 to 1.28 in 2021.

    Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong had their second years below 1.0. Or below 0.9 for Korea. Singapore was 1.08, so probably below 1.0 for ethnic Chinese. Thailand is 1.18 with heavily ethnic Chinese Bangkok at 0.85.

    Here’s a surprisingly frank article from Chinese government publication.

    https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/china/2021/05/china-210511-globaltimes04.htm

    “ According to the existing data, in the next 10 years, the number of women aged 22 to 35, which is the childbearing period, will drop by more than 30 percent”

    “ He Yafu, an independent demographer, told the Global Times on Tuesday that the total fertility rate of 1.3 contains the disappearing effect of the second-child policy China introduced in 2016, and leaving out the effect, the total fertility rate could only stand at around 1.1.”

    I assume this means there was a pent up burst of fertility starting in 2017 after the one-child policy was relaxed and the.n abolished, and this effect is fading away.

    “ many couples wanted to have second children, but due to various reasons such as the high cost of raising children, they eventually abandoned the idea.”

    High cost areas are growing in population in China at the expense of rural areas, not a good trend. By contrast in the USA people are leaving high cost CA, NY, MA for lower cost TX AZ FL GA NC.

    Karlin noted here in May 2021: “Urbanization rate is at 64%. This is relatively low for a country at China’s level of development and its future rise will be a further dampener on fertility.” Shanghai is 0.95, Beijing at 1.0.

  213. utu says:
    @Pixo

    This type of propaganda works on the same level as the Qanon stuff though MoA is not enigmatic as he sells himself as an analyst unlike Qanon but his purpose is very similar which is to string along the believers that the resolution is just around the corner. Not today but tomorrow or next month the victory will be ours and what you wanted to believe form the day one will be fulfilled: Putin will arrive on a white horse to save as all and punish the wicked ones just like Trump was supposed to do in Qanon psy-op’s fantasy. The psychological principle is very simple that hope dies last and you can sustain it almost indefinitely with promises. MoA caters to Russia’s sympathizers, shills, fellow travelers, and useful idiots which are not mutually exclusive categories.

    • Agree: AP
  214. LondonBob says:
    @Sean

    Didn’t you say Switchblades would change the course of the conflict?

    https://thedreizinreport.com/2022/05/10/victory-day-in-the-ukraine/

    NATO is already losing with no sign this is going to change, financial indicators are now flashing red.

    • Replies: @Sean
  215. Coconuts says:
    @Mikhail

    No sign whatsoever of what’s said in the above linked NPR piece. FYI, Putin has over the years promoted multi-ethnic unity and opposition to ethnic extremism. He did so at the recent Victory Day parade. The ROCOR includes individuals of numerous ethnic groups.

    If the ROCOR stays committed to some form of traditional Christianity, its congregations are majority white or Central Asian and it doesn’t actively adopt a CRT/Anti-Racist stance these kinds of US progressives will obviously attack it using any means they can find.

    And yeah neo-Nazism in Ukraine is a reality, contrary to the propaganda at NPR and some other venues.

    TBH, the activities of the Moscow based apostles of the Dictatorship of the Proletariat in Ukraine in the 1930s may have reasonably disposed some Ukrainians towards sympathy for Nazi propaganda. As far as the present day RF presents itself as the spiritual and ideological successor of the Soviet regime, it will be likely to foster some similar response.

  216. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Mr. Hack

    Plenty of photos of victims of Kiev regime carnage, which you seem to be okay with. Later with your sleazy antics.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  217. Mikhail says: • Website
    @AP

    Russian public are pleased that the Russian oligarchs got their stuff confiscated, it’s one thing the West does that doesn’t anger the Russian masses. I doubt they’ll care if the money goes to Ukraine.

    Yes, while being a bit Bolshevik. On the other hand, that noueveau biz class did some shady things.

    Comparisons to Versailles are unwarranted because Germany accepting all the blame for World War I was unfair and a lie, while Russia clearly invaded Ukraine. And keeping the confiscated share of Russia’s reserves (which are not even all of the reserves) is hardly as crippling as what was done to Germany.

    The Kiev regime went against the UN approved Donbass autonomy settlement plan they signed, while suppressing pro-Russian sentiment and okaying Banderite neo-Nazi views. In addition, the anti-Russian NATO military bloc and Kiev regime threatened Russian security.

  218. Mikhail says: • Website
    @AP

    You’re high on an ethno-chauvinism, which has been proven to be fatal for many prior to Russia’s February 24 military action.

    It’s quite clear to the more reasoned among us that more Ukrainian citizens will die from this conflict than Russian citizens.

    A militarily neutral post-Soviet Ukraine, respecting the wishes of its distinct areas was rejected by uber nationalists, who found common cause with some in the West.

  219. Beckow says:
    @AP

    Reading your convoluted arguments I get an impression that you are simply a fascist. You may dispute it, but your way of thinking “my tribe above others” is fascism. Enjoy it for now, but it always loses in the long run.

    No, Latvia is not a European country. It is a shrinking mini-state where not even the most basic EU mandated rights are observed. France is not what you say it is: they have had a history of centralism and suppressing other identities like Bretons and Alsatians, but in a much more democratic and open context – in the last 20-30 years. I really don’t care about what France did in 1950, nobody does. You are simply autistic for making a distinction between 1950 or 50 years before. To no normal European that matters – and as I told you before, you are not a European, you have the American shallow and context-free mind fed by Hollywood fairy tales.

    We have 1.6% Roma population, not “half a million”, you got that from Al Jazeera, are you kidding? Al Jazeera claims all kinds of crazy self-serving stuff. We have a Hungarian minority off around 400,000 that has full linguistic rights, schools, including a Hungarian University. You as always have no idea what you are talking about.

    Your musings on what size Ukraine will be after the war are interesting, but at this point premature. The Russian assets were “frozen”, the loose talk about not returning them is just talk. Even Iranian assets that were “frozen” were eventually returned. Confiscating others assets is communism and it has very dire consequences – nobody will trust you for 50 years. If a tax is put on imports from Russia it will be paid for by the European customers – that is the way duties on imports work.

  220. @Sean

    why I think Putin is gong to end up using a battlefield nuclear weapon to knock the stuffing out of the Ukrainian army.

    NATO will mount a conventional attack in such a case and it increases the chances of a strategic first strike. Or Putin having Hitler’s last will on the eve capitulation and nukes every major NATO city.

    • Replies: @Sean
  221. Mr. Hack says:
    @Mikhail

    I’m not okay with any of the photos of th Bucha/Irpin massacres and tortures. It turns my stomach that you’d march through the gates of hell along with your idol Putler, the architect of these crimes against humanity, trying to whitewash his murderous spree. And for what? Putler could give two shits for you Mickey, no trophies at the end of the road for you. You’ll not only be remembered as the “Srebrenica genocide denier” but now also as “Putler’s PR man in Bucha amd Mariupol”
    China calls for facts on ‘disturbing’ Bucha deaths in Ukraine war | South China Morning Post
    Russian speakers fleeing Mariupol don’t understand why they’re being tortured during Putler’s idiotic campaign to eradicate Ukraine of Nazis? Averko, don’t you really see anything at all wrong with Russia’s actions in Ukraine? These victims are the same people that you’ve been defending for years, and now Putler is having their homes destroyed and them killed? What’s wrong with you?

    • Replies: @Mikhail
  222. @AP

    Russian public are pleased that the Russian oligarchs got their stuff confiscated

    They’re freezing the oligarch money while making it hard to deposit or move the average Ivan’s life savings around, even haircutting them when it becomes convenient.

    And keeping the confiscated share of Russia’s reserves (which are not even all of the reserves) is hardly as crippling as what was done to Germany.

    Nothing said with trade and financial sanctions that will pretty much stay as far as Russia remains a semi-autocracy, or even after Russia becoming oligarchs’ playground Ukraine-style. The West should better be honest when they now prefer Cold War-style trading blocs.

    • Replies: @AP
  223. Ron Unz says:
    @Pixo

    MoA seems to just parrot Russia’s absurd propaganda.

    Sure, I explicitly described MoA as a “pro-Russian blogger” just like the NYT is an anti-Russian outlet.

    So I was emphasizing that the question of Russia’s dead generals is a useful empirical test of the relative reliability of MoA against the NYT, with the latter based upon US government sources.

    Obviously, if all those dead Russian generals aren’t dead or didn’t exist, MoA would become much more credible in my eyes. Since I think most of those supposedly killed generals were named in Ukrainian media reports, I’d assume it wouldn’t be too difficult to spot-check the reality.

    Correct or incorrect military predictions like whether Russia would actually invade or how quickly one side or the other would win are far less decisive in my mind.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @AP
    , @Pixo
  224. Wokechoke says:
    @AP

    The War Guilt in ww1 is an interesting topic. Germany did gratuitously invade France and Belgium. Certainly Belgium, which had been designed as a state precisely for the purposes of preventing a war between Britain, France and Germany on the scale of the Napoleonic Wars. Germany decided to violate that neutrality and brought down blockade and the globe spanning Royal Navy on its ports.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  225. Beckow says:
    @Wokechoke

    Germany had no direct reason “to gratuitously invade France and Belgium” in WWI. They did it in order to cover their back for the real war that was an attack on Russia to get more territories in the east. Similar to what happened in WWII.

    In the West an enormous amount of effort is devoted to denying or obfuscating the history of the West – Germany, France, UK, Sweden, Poland, Habsburgs, Poland, etc… – repeatedly attacking Russia to get its lands or resources. Or just because Russia’s size offends them.

    It is a form of an IQ test when evaluating Western minds: those who vehemently deny it are either not very smart or are very dishonest. Today the two strains have combined into a dumb mass of prevaricators determined to deny history and try it one more time. We may all come to regret it.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @silviosilver
  226. Wokechoke says:
    @Ron Unz

    If you consult the history books, there’s some parallels with the various battles around Kursk and Kharkov, Izium in ww2 fought between the USSR and The Third Reich.

    The key difference here is that the Russians sit securely on Crimea and Donestsk, in addition to Melitopol, Kherson, Lugansk and Belgorod.

    The Ukies are pushing north toward the immediate Russian border with their flank protected by a reservoir/river to their East. This is as much a barrier to attacking the supply routes to Izium as it is keeping the Ukie flank safe. One peculiarity of this area is several rivers that rivers I I I I go north south that repeatedly stop East West attacks. It’s easier to move North South around the immediate area. So the armies follow the path of least resistance. Popov and Manstein fought a similar looking battle around Izyum and Kharkov. East-West movement is difficult over the water.

    Refer to the Izium War Path and the Muravsky Trail for even more context on the military geography of the area.

    Big difference here is that the Russians hold a lot of areas that the Germans had in ww2 during Third Kharkov battle.

  227. Wokechoke says:
    @Beckow

    No British government will allow a formidable army to control ports in Belgium. You want total war?

  228. @Beckow

    Reading your convoluted arguments I get an impression that you are simply a fascist. You may dispute it, but your way of thinking “my tribe above others” is fascism.

    No. Fascism is corporations and the state doing their work or whatever together. We all are fascists now and for all the foreseeable future. The only way you are not a fascist is if you live like Ted Kaczynski or the guys in the jungle on Gilligan’s Island. In which case you would not be posting on the internet.

    You may not have read the Vanity Fair piece on the hipster right wing party monsters in Manhattan the other day. It’s pretty good. I learned four things:

    1. there exist hipster right wing party monsters in Manhattan
    2. the female-male ratio was not 0:whatever
    (assuming the females in the story were biological females which is an essential qualifier the writer did not see fit to eliminate any/all ambiguity pertaining to)
    3. one of the quoted folks referred to Ted Kaczynski as “Uncle Ted”)
    (I presume he was being ironic as this is Manhattan)
    4. Curtis Yarvin is short
    (They did not give his height and google doesn’t report it either)

    The light is at the end of the tunnel!

    • Replies: @Beckow
  229. AP says:
    @Beckow

    Reading your convoluted arguments I get an impression that you are simply a fascist

    Add this to the long list of your lies and mistaken impressions.

    Btw Putin has killed a bunch of Russians in Ukraine and has also sent 10,000s of them into Russia from territory that his forces control. Will you accuse him of fascism and ethnic cleansing?

    No, Latvia is not a European country. It is a shrinking mini-state where not even the most basic EU mandated rights are observed

    Latvia (and Estonia and Lithuania) are members of the EU and are on the European continent. But according to Beckow they are not European countries.

    France is not what you say it is: they have had a history of centralism and suppressing other identities like Bretons and Alsatians, but in a much more democratic and open context

    Ukraine’s language policy was formulated by the democratically elected government and enjoys majority support among the population (even among those whose primary language if communication is Russian). So democratic and open, as in France.

    I really don’t care about what France did in 1950, nobody does

    French language policy existed in 1950 and continued long afterward.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_policy_in_France

    “ France has one official language, the French language. The French government does not regulate the choice of language in publications by individuals, but the use of French is required by law in commercial and workplace communications”

    France has refused to ratify the European charter for minority or regional languages.

    France must not be a European country according to Beckow.

    You are simply autistic for making a distinction between 1950 or 50 years before

    1. Beckow lies that French policy was in the 19th century.

    2. I post that it existed in 1950 (and indeed into the end of the 20th century)

    3. Beckow makes an accusation of autism.

    Lol.

    We have 1.6% Roma population, not “half a million”, you got that from Al Jazeera, are you kidding?

    So if the Ukrainian government declared that Russians were only 1.6% of the population you would not complain about the lack of Russian secondary schools in Ukraine?

    Tell me again, are there any Roma language secondary schools in Slovakia? Not a single one? Then Slovakia must not be Europe according to you.

    If you don’t like Al Jazeera stating that 10% if Slovakia’s population are Roma, Deutsche Welle estimates it as 20% (I think Al Jazeera’s estimate is much more realistic):

    https://amp.dw.com/en/slovakia-issues-apology-for-forced-sterilizations-of-roma-women/a-59926198

    “One-fifth of Slovakia’s population belongs to the Roma minority. They have long been excluded from society, generally living in segregated settlements that often lack basics like electricity and running water, heating and gas.”

    This academic paper states that 8% if Slovakia’s population are Roma:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5826661/

    It is clear that Roma are are at least around 10% if the Slovak population but that the in-European Slovak government minimises that number and then denies this minority schools in their own language.

    So your country refuses to provide secondary schools in the language off the minority that is either 10% or 20% of the population and yet you dare whine about Ukraine not providing secondary schools in the language of a minority that is 10% if the population.

    You may lie to yourself or others, but in reality Ukraine’s language policy towards the Russian language is similar to that of various other European countries.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  230. Beckow says:
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    You present the usual last ditch argument ad absurdum that since “everybody is a fascist” effectively nobody is. Or communist, liberal, capitalist, whatever. It doesn’t work that way. Things are called absurd for a reason – one can’t relate to them and normal thinking stops. Don’t go there.

    The hipsters in Manhattan of whatever declared gender are of little interest. They are post-civilization people, left-overs that will die out, or some may transform into normal people by joining other groups. It has always been like that.

    It is not a mystery to know who will own the future. There is volatility and chaos, but the people who will end up defining and living the future will be the normal people living normal lives. I don’t know what “Vanity Fair” is, but they seem like the usual desperate attempt at entertainment. They illuminate nothing and know nothing.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
  231. AP says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    Ukraine has already gone to court about the Russian invasion. The world court will declare that the invasion was illegal and that therefore Russia will be held liable for the damage incurred by the illegal invasion. This money can then be taken from Russian frozen reserves. The process will take a few years but it is rather inevitable. I think the money seized from Russian oligarchs by individual governments could be distributed more quickly.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @A123
  232. Wokechoke says:
    @AP

    What’s your problem with Gypos?

  233. AP says:
    @Ron Unz

    Determining which source is more reliable, a pro-Russian one or an anti-Russian one, by testing only an anti-Russian claim would favor the pro-Russian source since the anti-Russian source would be more likely to make a false anti-Russian claim (i.e., about a lot of killed generals). An objective comparison would have to look at both pro and anti Russian claims by each source and tally up the number of false claims by each one and see who “wins.”

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @Ron Unz
    , @Ron Unz
  234. Wokechoke says:
    @AP

    There’s a split between quite straightforward British MOD tweets (pretty good) and statements and the activities of the 77 Brigade who are clearly making up a lot of stories for the British tabloid readership.

    the American newspapers are more cautious, but they have a habit of quoting anon government officials who turn out to be undersecretary or secretary of state for_____. And those stories are used for the same official to quote back again. The DOD is somewhat reliable when it’s official statements.

    The Ukies themselves have to build national myths and create heroes and romanticize the effort. That is a whole other topic.

    Russia has an interest in this war story not being a banner headline day to day, they want this on page 10 of the Times, NYT, Sun, NYPost and off Fox/Sky. Kill the Ukies in silence.

    They made a mistake of even talking to western media about this war.

  235. songbird says:

    I wonder if it is harder to engage in “shrinkflation” in Europe than America, as America often seems to have larger portions.

  236. @Beckow

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/04/inside-the-new-right-where-peter-thiel-is-placing-his-biggest-bets

    The subject to attend to is how Peter Thiel is dispensing his political contributions. You may have an AK47 and a pallet of ammo but he has a CIA faction.

    A better source is isgp.

    https://isgp-studies.com/psychedelics-and-elites

    Did you know that George Soros money did the bulk of the lobbying payments for cannibis legalization? I was surprised at that.

  237. Wokechoke says:
    @AP

    Operation Orbital: Largest Peacetime Parachute Drop in British History 2020, Southern Ukraine.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Orbital

    8000 personnel involved (British, Canadians and US). 20000 Ukie troops trained during the period.

    Three-day ride from RAF base in UK to South Ukraine and there’s a NATO Air Assault brigade in the area.

    This must have made the Russian staff officers demand invasion at the first practical moment. The British intent was clear enough. Do you really think the average Ukie will see a penny of this confiscated money? You have to be alive to receive payment.

  238. Sean says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    NATO will mount a conventional attack

    They could nave done that already. You are thinking in terms of America being free to bluff or not as if Russia was Saddam’s Iraq, but he did not have any nuclear weapons. You cannot fight with conventional weapons against nuclear weapons. There are nuclear anti aircraft missiles ECT and it is not an immediate reciprocal city nuking after first use Once you go nuclear you go nuclear for good. A conventional response to a nuclear weapon is putting the cart before the horse.

    America would do nothing. Have they came in on the conventional level against Russia? No because they are scared of Putin’s nukes which are a match for Americas, so they are hardly going to come in at the point where Putin is already at the nuclear level and start attacking Russian targets. Certainly not in Russia because that would invite an attack on the US homeland, and Air Force base ECT. Furthermore the Europeans are not going to follow Biden into a nuclear war over Ukraine, which is not a Nato member

  239. Pixo says:
    @Ron Unz

    My impression is that nearly all pro Russian sources have low credibility. If I am wrong, let me know. Probably the best from this group are Karlin and the RWA group he retweets a lot.

    By contrast, there are many Ukrainian sources that are credible, and the ones that aren’t are fairly obvious. In particular, if I see a Uke source claiming a big Russian bodycount I tune it out.

    WRT the generals, the most recent the claim is that Andrei Simonov was killed in specific attack at a specific date and time, and that the new top general Gerasimov may also have been killed or injured. About a day later, they withdrew the claim and said Gerasimov had left the command post that had been struck a few hours prior.

    If MoA is right and Uke sources have lied about killing 8 generals, surely one would have been spotted by now? Why not undermine their credibility?

    I note also MoA still won’t admit the Moskva was sunk in an attack. I suppose Russia could have lost its flagship in a war zone and the specific and video-confirmed Uke attack could be CGI. But this and the ranting about Nazis running Ukraine makes me think MoA is a worthless source of comfy cope for Russophiles in denial.

    Final point on the generals: The US and Israel have been developing expertise at targeting specific hostile leaders for 20+ years. Is it so hard to believe Russia, as its initial invasion plans failed, was reckless or unprepared to deal with a specific effort to target its generals? In a war zone with, for the first time for them, a zillion spy drones? With hostile civilians to report where command posts are?

    Ron I think within a year you’ll come around to my view that Putin is Russia’s George W Bush, a vainglorious idiot who started a war that is a disaster for the invader, regardless of what specifically happens on the battlefield.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  240. Wokechoke says:
    @Sean

    I’m thinking in terms of a financial grift.

    The bankers in London and New York saw trillions in cash in Russian accounts they could seize. They got the Military to do joint exercises like Operation Orbital with the Ukies in Southern Ukraine and this ensured the Russians would come out swinging. And so they did with tanks, artillery and gunships to show GI Joe, Tommy Atkins and that Johnny Canuck what’s what.

    The pretext for confiscation on an unprecedented scale was provided and the loot divvied up among the conspirators.

    Some Slavs batter each other to death.

    Loads of Money.

  241. A123 says: • Website
    @AP

    Ukraine has already gone to court about the Russian invasion. The world court will declare that the invasion was illegal and that therefore Russia will be held liable for the damage incurred by the illegal invasion.

    Russia, like the U.S. and China, has withdrawn from (or never joined) these bogus International bodies, including the Intentional Criminal Court. The correct reaction to “world court” action is pointing, laughing, and other ridicule. No serious world power subordinates their sovereignty in this way. Believing in “world courts” is a sign of weakness.

    (Humor)
    The World Court is going to “Declare War” on Russia? That is quite bold for a group of unelected Hague bureaucrats with no planes, or tanks, or bombs. Does Russia have any missile armed ships or subs in the North Sea?

    This could be the shortest war in planetary history…
    (/Humor)

    This money can then be taken from Russian frozen reserves. The process will take a few years but it is rather inevitable.

    The Russian government knows that absurd “international law” is 100% corrupt. They have intentionally minimized the amount of funds that can be stolen by authoritarian Leftoids.

    I think the money seized from Russian oligarchs by individual governments could be distributed more quickly.

    So you support stealing money from individuals?
        — Bad nationality must be punished.
        — Good nationality will be rewarded.

    As Ukraine continues to lose, your side is becoming more desperate and immoral.

    If Ukraine steals assets from Russia’s private citizens, one should expect Russia to seize assets from private citizens and firms that collaborate with Ukrainian thieves. That will make any business transactions with Ukrainian companies highly risky and probably uninsurable.
    ___

    A much better solution would be reaching an armistice where both sides get some of what they want. That would allow Zelensky and Putin to withdraw actions intended to create economic problems for the other side.

    When will Ukraine negotiate in good faith?

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @AP
  242. AP says:
    @A123

    The Russian reserves held abroad (IIRC about a third of Russia’s reserves were kept abroad) have already been seized and frozen. Their distribution can thus be done easily, whether or not Russia recognises any international courts.

    Oligarchs are de facto part of the Russian state. Most of their stuff was stolen Soviet assets (which themselves were stolen or built on theft) anyways. Some Soviet elite stole some state factories or oil infrastructure he had access to when his class decided to liquidate the Soviet state. It’s not private property in the Western sense. Taking such assets is popular among normal Russians who hate oligarchs and their stolen wealth.

    If Ukraine steals assets from Russia’s private citizens, one should expect Russia to seize assets from private citizens and firms that collaborate with Ukrainian thieves

    It is the EU, USA etc. not Ukraine who have seized assets of Russian oligarchs so in this case Russia would be seizing stuff from the EU and USA. No problem, there are already sanctions in place.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  243. For the lulz – auto translate of fed up hardcore ethnic Russian nationalist (i.e. not karlinist type, but the one who hates not only Ukrainians but Chechens, Tuvans and Armenians too) posting about constant scotritterism in RF media:

    Twice convicted pedophile in the service of RT under the guise of a US military analyst

    RT had enough money for one Scott Ritter, and now he is a full-time Western military expert who explains that we didn’t crap ourselves, but just got dirt on our pants. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are not fighting badly, we just want to save the lives of civilians and therefore we suffer such losses and make little progress. This expert was contracted to justify and comment on everything.

    Scott Ritter, Scott Ritter – a plug in every barrel.

    I thought, who in the US expert community can be so desperate as to take money from the Kremlin or just hype for the Russian Federation? After all, this is immediately an exclusion from all partying. I thought that he was some kind of marginal and decided to look at the biography .. but everything turned out to be much worse there.

    “he was convicted of unlawful contact with a minor and five other charges that resulted in two years of incarceration.”

    In general, long before his ties with the Russian Federation, this expert was caught on youngsters in the style of Tesak. First in 2001 (which excludes a set-up for cooperation with the Russians), then in 2009. Apparently, they discovered his attempts to get close to youngsters and set up set-ups to punish him and save the children. Usually they are found on forums, specialized sites, etc. Because it’s better to catch it than after the fact of the crime. Yes, and his face is completely suitable for the type of pedophile, see the famous releases with Chris Hansen. This completely destroyed his career, not only as a military man, but in general any, such people are not forgiven there.

    And only after that he was picked up by RT to exhibit as a sane American military expert. A man has nothing to lose, worse sex offender only repeat sex offender. He will not be hired not only to teach in college, but even at McDonald’s. There, his neighbors are informed that a maniac lives next to them, such people are forced to register.

    No, I’m not against the fact that there are some experts in the West who hype for us. Budgets are allocated for this and all that. But Russian diplomacy must ensure that these are truly respected experts from institutions and departments. Otherwise, why do we need the Kalantaryan circus, RT, budgets for international representations, NGOs and public diplomacy? If we are so disliked in the West, let it be Chinese experts. Instead, RT and other Russian structures are so plagued with their international law and respect for the sovereignty of countries that only pedophiles can be lured there. And this is clearly reported to the top as about establishing contact with the American expert community, although not a single expert there will even shake his hand. It is clear that Scott Ritter is not currently any military expert.

    For me, it’s better without purchased Western experts than with such ones. The USA is a society that despises people with an unclean criminal record, and pedophiles are generally not considered people. When such a person is hyping for Russia, this is only a reason to trust us even less. Even if we believe that he was once framed for criticizing the Bush administration (although this is the lot of films, it’s easier to fire him in life, and a frame-up can go wrong – and the courts with the police in the United States are not subordinate to the Pentagon or the president), for us it is changes nothing, contacting such an expert was like wallowing in mud. But this is not at all an operation to influence American political and expert circles, this is a talking head for the Russian audience, designed to mask Tuvan fuck-ups as our military nobility. The American expert said that we are successfully fighting fascism and we have no shortage of high-precision weapons – Hey, the American will definitely not lie.

    I’m just afraid to imagine how much money the Armenians sawed up, saying that they are recruiting important members of the American expert community.

    It’s time to give a respected military analyst Russian citizenship and take him to the Russian Federation, and if girls start disappearing in his area, it’s okay, cause it’s much more important to convey our point of view to Western partners.

    https://t.me/bulbe_de_trones/765

    • Thanks: S
    • Replies: @Mikel
  244. @Sean

    You’re still conceptually separating tactical and strategic nuclear weapons and there’s actually zero difference – any use will lead to irreversible escalation either conventional or nuclear, and ultimately leading to MAD.

    • Replies: @Sean
  245. Ron Unz says:
    @AP

    Determining which source is more reliable, a pro-Russian one or an anti-Russian one, by testing only an anti-Russian claim would favor the pro-Russian source since the anti-Russian source would be more likely to make a false anti-Russian claim (i.e., about a lot of killed generals). An objective comparison would have to look at both pro and anti Russian claims by each source and tally up the number of false claims by each one and see who “wins.”

    Sure, but the anti-Russian side totally controls the MSM, so those are the only claims I (or most Americans) encounter, except occasionally on the Internet.

    Also, that claim about all those Russian generals being killed had been very high-profile in the elite MSM for several weeks, so I’d assumed it must be correct. Most of the other claims, e.g. whether the Russians were “defeated” outside Kiev or merely withdrew seem much more ambiguous and subject to interpretation, let alone the question of who is “winning” or whether the Russians are running low on their missiles.

    I also seem reasonably persuaded about a couple of other ultra-high-profile incidents, namely that the those bodies lying the Bucha roadway were killed by the Ukrainians and that a Ukrainian rocket hit that train station. But the dead Russian generals seems a pretty objective, indisputable fact to confirm.

    Incidentally, yesterday’s NYT based upon US government sources mentioned a dozen dead Russian generals, while this morning the total had declined to 8-10, which further raises my suspicions.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  246. Ron Unz says:
    @Pixo

    My impression is that nearly all pro Russian sources have low credibility. If I am wrong, let me know…Ron I think within a year you’ll come around to my view that Putin is Russia’s George W Bush, a vainglorious idiot who started a war that is a disaster for the invader, regardless of what specifically happens on the battlefield.

    Although I’m still not entirely convinced how the war is going, I do have pretty solidly established views that Putin’s invasion was very reasonably justified based upon so many years of blatant American/NATO provocations, and I’ve taken that position in numerous comments and an early March article, which you might want to take a look at if you haven’t already done so:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-putin-as-hitler/

    So I regard all the pro-Russian sources as having very high credibility in that area, with the question being their credibility on the course of the fighting.

    • Replies: @Mikel
    , @Triteleia Laxa
    , @Pixo
    , @utu
    , @AP
  247. Wokechoke says:
    @AP

    he makes some good points about shipping companies. our Greek with the English accent.

  248. Wokechoke says:
    @Ron Unz

    The scale of the operations in Ukraine would, I suspect, end up killing around 8-10 Russian Brigade commanders.

    in ww2 The British lost around 18 KIA Generals and another 18 injured 4 captured. Limited contact time with the Germans and Japanese and cautious tentative campaigns.

    If they are not dying, they are not really fighting to some extent.

    American generals in ww2 who got killed, tended to be Airborne in Normandy. Several Admirals in the pacific and a few Marines.

  249. Ron Unz says:
    @AP

    An objective comparison would have to look at both pro and anti Russian claims by each source and tally up the number of false claims by each one and see who “wins.”

    Just to further clarify, all sorts of pro-Russian ources on the Internet have been claiming for weeks that various NATO generals or special forces troops were trapped in the Azovstal underground facilities, and I haven’t paid any attention to those statements, which seem likely to be nonsense. Similarly, I had disregarded all the Russian or pro-Russian claims of biolabs until Victoria Nuland seemed to confirm their reality in her Congressional testimony:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/ukraine-and-biowarfare-conspiracy-theories/

    But claims that repeatedly appear on the front page of the NYT and are allegedly based upon US government sources must obviously be taken seriously. And if they turn to be total rubbish that’s an important fact to consider going forward.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
  250. @AP

    This literally illustrates my initial point!?

    Ukrainians are loading on American capabilities (Starlink in this case) to multiply their combat power.

    Kessler cascade always a solution if it becomes too much of a problem.

  251. Sean says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    You’re still conceptually separating tactical and strategic nuclear weapons and there’s actually zero difference – any use will lead to irreversible escalation either conventional or nuclear, and ultimately leading to MAD

    Any kind of nuclear weapon use would indeed be crossing the Rubicon if the antagonists were both major nuclear powers such as NATO and the Warsaw Pact–and this is still tenable (though IMO nukes in the Cold War were a bluff, and the Soviets were not deterred they didn’t want to conquer Western Europe). Yet that argument has nothing to do with the case.That escalation theory you-and to be fair many others–are operating with is no kind of guide at all to the military consequences for Russia of tactical nuclear weapon use against the Ukrainian army.

    Ukraine is not a Nato member, and as such is outside charter 5 protection. The governments of Ukraine have been foolhardy and failed to understand that no one is going to fight Russia with nuclear weapons to save Ukraine from losing a bit of territory

    When called in to educate the newly elected President Reagan, Kissinger advised against any first use of nuclear weapons. On the nuclear plane with Russia, the US is not up against an opponent with any meaningful inferiority. The US will punish Russia by diplomatic and economic isolation for a thermonuclear settling og accounts with Ukraine, but Americans attacking Russian forces directly: not a chance.

  252. @Wokechoke

    The British were assisting Ukraine with the design of a Ukrainian naval base near Kherson, not setting up their own. Kherson was however an Anglo Saxon settlement in the middle ages for about 400 years (often misdescribed as Goths). Caitlin’s paper brought this corner of history back to attention.

    https://www.caitlingreen.org/2015/05/medieval-new-england-black-sea.html

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  253. These are now my maps. They show the 6, 7 and 8 May and then 11 May. The run up to Victory Day marked by the most intense artillery bombardments of the war. One surprise was that both sides were bombarding. As a follower of Russia friendly social feeds, I expected overwhelming Russian superiority in artillery.

    Another surprise was that Sevrodonetsk and Poposnaya both claimed as solid victories by Russia were still in contention today, 11 May. Sevrodonetsk in particular. The Ukrainian claim to progress north of Kharkiv appears to have been understated or maybe I am ahead of the PR machines. The cessation of activity in what was the Russian salient south of Izyum also suggests an as yet unannounced Ukrainian success. Again surprise. Given Russian claims I thought Ukraine was overstating their position.

    The battlefield is now quiet. Was that the Russian maximum effort? It looks like it. Another Clausewitzian cumulation like Kiev? We seem to be heading for trench warfare. Russian attacks on Ukrainian logistics may yet matter?

    Meanwhile inflation in Russia has reached 17.3% with sanctions hardly starting to bite so far as real world production and trade is concerned.

  254. Mikel says:
    @sudden death

    this is a talking head for the Russian audience, designed to mask Tuvan fuck-ups

    These guys don’t understand. It’s not that the attack on Kiev was a feint. The whole Special Operation so far has clearly been a big feint to make the world (enemies and allies alike) believe that the Russian conventional forces are a paper tiger. But now that everybody has been fooled, the Third Phase of the operation will start and the truth will finally become clear.

    • LOL: Mr. Hack, Barbarossa
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  255. Sean says:
    @AP

    Russia Pretends It Didn’t Accidentally Show Bonnie and Clyde …https://www.vice.com › Home › News
    3 hours ago — Bonnie and Clyde were presented as “Ancestors who faught Nazism until victory” during a concert dedicated to May 9 celebration in Russia. Ahahah …

    Former American porn star Sasha Grey ditched her acting career and worked as a nurse for pro-Russian rebels fighting in eastern Ukraine until she was brutally murdered by Ukrainian government forces.

    That, at least, is according to an anti-Kiev propaganda campaign featuring a photo of Grey that has appeared on Russian social media networks.

    It is necessary for the Russians to epically fail at everything before they decide to cheat

    Only in winning a la Sasha Grey (with a very big bang) will they find redemption.

  256. Mikel says:
    @Ron Unz

    So I regard all the pro-Russian sources as having very high credibility in that area, with the question being their credibility on the course of the fighting.

    Well, at least two Pro-Russian authors on this site (Saker and Martyanov) have spent years trying to convince us all that an operation like this would be a cakewalk for the Russian military and that even NATO was no match for the modern Russian conventional forces. But on the 3rd month of the war Donetsk is still on the front line, Donbass as a whole is very far from being taken, Russia is retreating to its border all along the norther front and the Western Black Sea is contested by Ukraine, who has sunken the Russian flagship.

    If these two pro-Russians sources were so full of c*ap on their alleged areas of expertise, why trust them on anything else?

    I don’t quite see the need to figure out if the Western MSM are lying on the Ukraine war, btw. Of course they are. Just in the same way they lied on Russiagate, the ‘mostly peaceful’ protests or the 8 years of the Donbas war itself. If anything, their Ukraine war lies look even more blatant to me. But things are complicated. This doesn’t mean that one doesn’t need to be equally skeptical of people who oppose the mainstream, especially obvious cranks like the two I’ve mentioned above.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Ron Unz
  257. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Mr. Hack

    Keep recycling BS.

    Russia called for an immediate Bucha investigation which was rejected. Kiev regime forces using civilians as human shields, in line with what Mariupol Greeks fleeing to Greece have said, adding their preference for Russian/rebel forces.

  258. songbird says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    In October 2001, Musk traveled to Moscow with Jim Cantrell and Mike Griffin to buy refurbished Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that could send the greenhouse payloads into space. He met with companies NPO Lavochkin and Kosmotras; however, Musk was seen as a novice and was even spat on by one of the Russian chief designers.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk

  259. AP says:
    @Mikel

    Brilliant!

    I found an old post by Martyanov directed to me. I had pointed out to him in 2017 that Ukraine has learned some lessons from its 2014 disaster and was undertaking a massive improvement in its military. I linked to an article by a Polish military specialist stating that Ukraine now had the best military it ever had. His response to me was hilarious both in how wrong it was in how he inflated his own credentials as an “expert.” He is such a foolish clown, his use of technical jargon to highlight his expertise is especially funny :

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/when-russians-were-americanophiles/

    Most of competent people in Ukrainian MoD were purged by 2015–it is run today by apes in uniforms who know damn well only one thing–they push too hard, they are done. Your mindless repetition of the number of 200,000 shows how incompetent you are. Again–read this by syllables:

    Ukrainian military is a collection of a technological obsolete junk and operational concepts which are not suited for modern warfare. This military is drowned in corruption, drugs, alcohol and is not trained whatsoever to conduct a modern maneuverable warfare based on the Netcentric principles and involving newest state-of-the-art C4ISR. Ukraine simple has NO scientific, industrial or military capacity to have this, nor has it access to that. The only reason so called NATO military “professionals” are hanging around Yavorsky range and “advising” Ukie army is not to help but to collect all possibly so called war correlates they can, while it is still possible. LDNR forces, despite being vastly outnumbered, have access to this, which they demonstrated in Debaltsevo, Ilovaisk and many other places where this so called “battle hardened” Ukie army ran like hell. You do not understand what OODA (and its frequency) is in modern warfare but I can assure you that LDNR forces have this loop “running” in their Command and Control structures several times faster than the same is with Ukraine’s “army”. Several S-300s here and there, and few old T-64s and even 300 000 of Ukrainian personnel (a euphemism for brainwashed badly trained recruits) do not even understand what it means to have most of targeting information already distributed through tactical and operational networks of their adversary and this adversary having already fire means (ognevye sredstva) assigned to annihilate them once the order comes. This is beyond your grasp and that is why you continue to post here all kinds of Ukie shitty propaganda, like this:
    “Thanks to that, at least in terms of the human factor, it should be possible in a relatively short period of time to increase the Ukrainian army’s degree of combat readiness”

    Modern Armed Forces, and we are talking about Russia, wouldn’t even allow this so called army to see them–they will demolish all Ukrainian C4ISR first, especially C3, by stand-off weaponry and then cavalry will go in, with targets already shown and assigned on the level of company, or even platoon. Any direct involvement of Russia means one thing–the end of the junta in Kiev and disintegration of Ukraine, with LDNR forward forces rolling over Kreshatick within weeks. You can continue to reside in your delusion whatever you want but you have no idea what are you taking about. You are paid Ukie troll who spreads non-stop BS here.

    P.S. Please, don’t insult me (and other people’s intelligence) by presenting here Polish “analysis” on anything military related. If you want to consume this fodder, be my guest, but please spare us here from this Polish contrived incompetent military claptrap.

    • LOL: Mikel
  260. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    The software package enabling a call to fire time of 30 seconds for Ukrainian artillery (versus 5 minutes for Americans and much longer for Russians) was made by a Ukrainian programmer.

  261. @Ron Unz

    Ukraine claims 11, having named 9.

    The DIA says 8 or 9.

    Russia confirms 2 and disputes 2.

    US intelligence has tended to be undeservedly pessimistic on Ukrainians during this war.

    Russia could disprove Ukrainian claims with ease if they were false, and is motivated to.

    The US is likely correct.

    Their small discrepancy with Ukrainian claims being caused by Ukraine not being able to 100% confirm kills and sometimes being exuberant.

    And if you want a simple and objective view of how this war is going, simply visit your favourite mapper. It doesn’t matter where their bias lies. Then look at a map from 2 months ago and today. Anyone can see how much the Russian position has shrunk.

    At the same time, long wars do not favour the occupier, nor the combatant with less skin in the game, nor that with the smaller industrial base. Russia loses on all three.

    The only counter to that is that the West might get bored, but that ignores the fact that no government ever seems to get bored with funneling money to its defence industry, as long as they don’t have to deal with politically difficult casualties.

    So what is Russia’s route to victory? Any land they take, they will have to hold against Ukrainian conventional forces and insurgents working in tandem, and with infinite resupply, which is an absurd proposition.

    They cannot hope to knock out the Ukrainian government to force a peace either. That would require probably even taking Lviv, nevermind Kharkiv, Odesa, Mykolaiv and Kyiv, plus others.

    And even doing that would also likely require them to seal Ukrainian borders to stop the insurgency.

    Obviously Russia has shown no ability to do any of these tasks. It has been 3 months of constant fighting and they haven’t even established air supremacy, nevermind take a single Ukrainian city that resisted, nor inflict a major defeat on the Ukrainian army in the field.

    A further subtle problem for Russia is that it is the learning and adapting army that improves relatively over time, even for its given amount of force, and the Ukrainian structure is much better at learning. They also have much more flexible supply as the US will be sending them a very wide range of arms and then doubling and tripling down on what works.

    Drunken Buryats are just not that adaptable, while Urkainain urban sysadmins and such like, with real intellectual talent, will learn new weapons quickly, and fast become excellent combatants in the fires of battle.

    The Ukrainian population is undergoing the greatest military training excerise of modern times and is doing it with ever better equipment. The longer this war goes on for, the more impressive the Ukrainian military will be. There’s really nothing Russia can do to stop that. They had to win in a quick knockout punch, failed, and have been going backwards for 2 months.

    Anyone who is mostly positive for the Russian side is an idiot. Of course, in war, things can change, but anything can change in anything, so really that is only saying the least one can say to support optimism for Russia.

    I do think that Russia might again threaten Kharkiv and maybe advance another 50km or so in the East, but every advance just puts Russian troops in more vulnerable positions. Hannibal marched around the Italian peninsula for years just to fail and he didn’t have Javelins, switchblade drones and small, mobile Ukrainian weapons teams to deal with.

    Finally, the Russian economy is really in a bad way. The Ruble is high, but, even with high oil prices, it looks like they are going to have a 12% recession this year. Maybe the Russian people will be just cool with that, but given that Russia certainly cannot end this military operation this year, without withdrawing, nor actually probably for a couple of decades, the 12% is just the start.

    Oil will also return to 40\$ per barrel. That is just the price where it is broadly profitable and so supply will meet demand. At that point, the Russian economy shrinks even faster.

    If you really want to understand just how bleak things might be for Russia, simply play the fun intellectual game of applying the same pessimism and desperate hope for collapse, and cynicism, to Russia, as you do the United States!

    • Replies: @utu
    , @216
  262. @AP

    Meanwhile in the real world Russia is refighting WW2 with ’70s desgined equipment after updating 71.6% of its equipment since the 2008 Georgian debacle. Russia won but the long trail of broken down tanks was a message. Medvedeev Serduykov should probably have been kept in post. Putin was the choice of those who wanted the looting to continue.

  263. @Ron Unz

    “Provoked.”

    Please explain, without mystifying pointless theory, and, by being concrete and specific, what exactly any individual or institution did to force Russia to invade Ukraine and murder Ukrainians.

    Honestly, this narrative of “I am invading and it is everyone else’s fault” is sickening.

    Anyone who doesn’t, at least internally, find it ridiculous, is totally defective. Yes, it might be useful propaganda to take in the doormats and the ASPDers, but it is really pathetic to read someone who thinks they’re intelligent and serious write such a thing.

  264. @Anatoly Karlin

    I didn’t get to respond to your last comment to me, but I don’t want to disappoint:

    (1) Russia doesn’t need nukes to win against Ukraine, they are only (probably) coming out to play if NATO intervenes openly and on a large scale.

    Yes, anyone who says Russia could use nukes is admitting that Russia has lost bad. And also alleging that it is governed by the worst people in the world, which is not actually true.

    (3) Your democidal hatred against the Chinese (which you unconvincingly try to paper over)

    I have lived in China and I love the Chinese. We have even both been in intense and valued relationships with Chinese people in the past. I just can’t be bothered with them when they are who are soaked in resentment. They need shocking out of it. It is pathetic.

    bloodthirsty if impotent fantasies about stomping in Gonzalo’s head (spoiler: Unlikely to work, given you’re a middle-aged female wine alcoholic)

    Neither of us are yet middle-aged, but since one of us is about 10% body fat, 100kgs and a twice-medalled veteran, I think some decrepit Chilean child-groomer sex tourist would not be so hard to push down some stairs. Having said that, it probably wouldn’t be worth the pain. Such is sensitivity.

    As for the alcohol, it was mother’s day! Not an easy day for everyone, but pretty important!

    betray a psyche at least as ruined if not more so than any of the other commenters here you love to psychoanalize

    I know my psychology is unusual. Trust me, both other professionals and even religions have told me, but having no fear reflex, disgust reflex or sense of shame is actually pretty fun, especially when it is combined with genuine feeling i.e no psychopathy.

    Yes, this answer is also becoming for Mr Hack, but I have limited allowed replies. Sorry Mr Hack!

    Anyway, Anatoly I’m certainly not against you terming me psychologically broken either, but it is what it is, and I am what I am, and having no barrier between your conscious and unconscious, or even the unconscious, is certainly a different experience.

    It also means that I like your reply and
    I really appreciate you and wish you the best.

    reexamine your commitment to the Western Supremacist worldview more broadly.

    There’s no “Western Supremacism” just a basic understanding of facts and moderate appreciation of trends.

    There’ll be no sudden Western collapse and Russia won’t conquer Ukraine when they can’t even take a city on their border.

    Everyone goes home eventually and successful democracies have resolve (20 years in Afghanistan) that mediocre petrol stations do not.

    Everyone can pretend that Putin would have launched this war if he thought Ukraine would resist as it has, but that’s nonsense.

    Even today Russia is celebrating, as if “great victory”, taking a village that was a short walk from its lines for the last 8 years, while losing more territory in the rest of the country.

    My advice to Putin: declare victory. Withdraw to 2014 lines. Sue for peace by offering referenda. Anything else is awful.

    You’re fighting the Taliban, but with European IQs, a united nation, infinite armaments and Slavic staying power.

    Trust me. It won’t end well.

    You can pretend to care, but you’ll never care as much as Ukrainians really do about Ukraine. All the reasons and excuses given for the war, and why it is just so utterly vital to Russia are flimsy lies. And Russians will see reality, eventually.

    Meanwhile, the West can print money, distribute it to favoured industries and send arms to end your army.

    You’re in a dynamic where the incentives are 100% against you.

    I cannot think of anything worse.

    The only point of Russia invading Ukraine was to pull off a miraculous victory. That would have made the whole murderous hassle and corruption possibly worth it, but that point is long in the rear-view mirror, so now there is no point at all. This is the pure truth.

  265. @Beckow

    If a tax is put on imports from Russia it will be paid for by the European customers – that is the way duties on imports work.

    Actually, that depends on the relative elasticities of demand and supply for a given good. If demand is more elastic than supply, it is suppliers who bear the burden.

    /econ101

  266. Mr. Hack says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    “Eh tu Brutia” ??…

    So many commenters seem to not appreciate my efforts here this week. Well, at least you’re comparing yourself to me…therefore, I can’t really be that bad…any suggestions to raise my game to that of a “fully unlimited Tritelia Laxa”? I’m not really trying to steal your mantle as being “the world’s greatest and most intelligent commentator. 🙂

    • Replies: @Best to apologise
  267. @Beckow

    In the West an enormous amount of effort is devoted to denying or obfuscating the history of the West – Germany, France, UK, Sweden, Poland, Habsburgs, Poland, etc… – repeatedly attacking Russia to get its lands or resources. Or just because Russia’s size offends them.

    How did Russia get so big in the first place? By playing the very same game. What’s sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.

    Btw, what was Russia doing just prior to the outbreak of WWI? Oh…

  268. @Mr. Hack

    I think TL phrased their reference to you very badly. They seem to have intended the “your answer” to be “their own answer to Karlin” and were instead referring to their own comment as that answer.

    This means that the comment, although addressed to AK, was becoming for Mr Hack, only in that it addressed some of the biographical details you otherwise requested earlier.

    Perhaps that reference was as a tacit apology for not actually answering your previous question, as they only have limited posts allowed…

    This explanation might not make sense, as it is a difficult thing to explain, but I am sure that they did not intend the reference as you see it, and would only have written kind things towards you, or about you. I promise, absolutely guaranteed! Sorry for the confusion.

    Also, your response was undeservedly reasonable, given your understanding of what you were replying to. Mild irony and jokes in the face of what you understood as genuine unpleasantness. That’s very generous of you.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
  269. @Anatoly Karlin

    Kessler cascade always a solution if it becomes too much of a problem.

    You’re not even technically losing this war and you’re prepared to contemplate such a drastic “solution”?

    Hopefully that’s just petulant bluster, but still, I bet it’s not doing your reputation any favors.

    • Replies: @Sean
  270. Sean says:
    @LondonBob

    They would if it was trench war but I don’t think that the Russians are going to be able to stablise a front. Getting the best and hitherto rather classified drones was a harbinger of America’s commitment, and given their recourses that is all that’s needed. Artillery is the decisive factor in most wars, and the Ukrainians’ new Western howitzers outranges the Russians’, and are much better targeted. At the critical points already, the Russians’ are being forced to take huge detours to keep their supply lines from coming under fire which they are helpless against.

  271. @Triteleia Laxa

    This unironically reads like a schizopost. At the very least, it’s an angry rant post.

    Neither of us are yet middle-aged

    There’s two of you? What the fuck? Since when is anonymous commenting on a random internet blog a team sport?

    but since one of us is about 10% body fat, 100kgs and a twice-medalled veteran, I think some decrepit Chilean child-groomer sex tourist would not be so hard to push down some stairs.

    Hahaha, sure thing, tough guy. Of course, that’s bullshit. Now your next step is gonna be to post the NAVY Seal copypasta: “I’ll have you know I graduated top of my class in the Navy Seals, and I’ve been involved in numerous secret raids on Al-Quaeda, and I have over 300 confirmed kills. I am trained in gorilla warfare and I’m the top sniper in the entire US armed forces. You are nothing to me but just another target. . . .”

    You’re a fucking weirdo, mate.

    • Disagree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Pixo
    , @AP
  272. Mr. Hack says:

    Triteleia Lexa, is “Best to apologize” a sock pocket of yours? 🙂

    I appreciate the “clarification” no matter who wrote it.

    And I’ll still look forward to more of Triteleia Laxa’s comments posted here!

    • Replies: @songbird
  273. songbird says:
    @Mr. Hack

    Well, you can’t be doing too badly, if you have managed to tease some personal information out of her, where the attempts of others have failed. (even if some of it seems oblique or questionable: 100 kgs is kind of a round number, and doesn’t seem especially believable for a girl. Gina Carano is only about 65 kg and seems very beefy.)

    Perhaps, you should try your hand at getting utu to admit his ethnic make-up.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  274. S says:
    @Sean

    if they lose conventionally and capitulate the country is going to be merely occupied not destroyed.

    As has happened in the case of Germany and Japan in the decades following their defeat by the United States in WWII?

    Both countries, albeit starting later with Japan, are having ‘immigration’ deliberately forced upon them, to consciously and knowingly (not to mention crudely) forever ‘mix’ them out of existance, ie a real genocide in the truest sense of the term.

    I don’t say soft genocide as some mistakenly imo do, as genocide is genocide, the same as murder is murder, irrespective if the murderer uses a pillow to smother their victim while they sleep, or, a shotgun blast to their head.

    they [the West] have zero incentive for first use of nuclear weapons.

    Western elites and hangers on have been pushing the 500 million ‘sustainable’ population figure for decades. To accomplish that they’ll need as high a body count as they can possibly get. For that reason, while maybe not first to use nukes, I don’t put it past these elites at all to respond with massive nuclear strikes should Putin use a nuke, irrespective of type, in Ukraine. [These elites have something of a different perspective on this than most, as, after all, the accounts of their having access to vast underground bomb shelters in the global south are probably true.]

    Below is a description of the US revolutionary mission from the mid 19th century, with a particular hostility directed towards the peoples of Europe, the latter probably being a misguided carryover from England. [Yes, England too is a part of Europe.]

    Despite appearances of late, the United States is not in reality the Ukranian people’s friend…

    ‘When the dominion of nationality is crushed, and the sovereignty of the individual is attained, everywhere and everyhow, the missions of the revolution and of America will both be accomplished.’

    ‘It is the duty of the American party to combat all European traditions which are incompatible with Americanism; but, above all, that of nationality. To vindicate individualism against nationality, is the office of America. This is, at the same time, the whole force and scope of the revolution; thus, the revolution which arose in and with America, must for ever return to it; and America, which began in revolution, must live in it, and end with it. When the dominion of nationality is crushed, and the sovereignty of the individual is attained, everywhere and everyhow, the missions of the revolution and of America will both be accomplished.’ The New Rome (1853) – pg 71

    https://archive.org/details/newrome00poes/page/70/mode/2up

    • Replies: @Sean
  275. songbird says:
    @S

    They may abuse drugs, drink excessively, or cut themselves, in a forlorn attempt to escape the self.

    This is an interesting analogy. I wonder if it would work as a PSA for liberals. To try to garner sympathy for the individual and then to transition to the nation state. Use the old national personifications.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_personification

    Saying peoplehood (ie nationality) is the problem in otherwords is extremely simplistic thinking, and also escapist.

    They are just scapegoating nationalism. The real issue is the hubris of elites, and they haven’t identified it correctly, and foolishly think to disarm the problem, by getting the elites all join together and form one big team. It won’t end well.

    • Replies: @S
  276. Ron Unz says:
    @Mikel

    Well, at least two Pro-Russian authors on this site (Saker and Martyanov) have spent years trying to convince us all that an operation like this would be a cakewalk for the Russian military and that even NATO was no match for the modern Russian conventional forces…If these two pro-Russians sources were so full of c*ap on their alleged areas of expertise, why trust them on anything else?

    Sure, they’ve certainly lost quite a lot of credibility with me because of the strong Ukrainian resistance and continuing length of the war. As I emphasized, I don’t currently have a solid opinion on how the conflict is going, though I’d probably still lean in the direction of Scott Ritter, Douglas Macgregor, Larry Johnson, and the other military experts who think the Russians have a huge advantage.

    However, that’s an entirely different question than the origins of the war and the years of provocations that finally forced Putin’s hand. On those questions, I still fully stand by the analysis of John Mearsheimer, Ray McGovern, Jack Matlock, Douglas Macgregor, and the late Stephen Cohen. I was just taking another look at the article I’d published a month ago, and there’s absolutely nothing I would change, especially given the potentially important biolab disclosures than came out immediately afterwards:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-putin-as-hitler/

    https://www.unz.com/runz/ukraine-and-biowarfare-conspiracy-theories/

    • Replies: @216
    , @AP
  277. Pixo says:
    @Ytterbium Jones

    That left me confused too. TL is one of my favorites, mostly right and always entertaining.

    I assume his wife helps him megapost? Lucky guy. My lady isn’t allowed to see my messageboarding, and would be confused and bored by it.

    When we started dating I’d let her peek at it because she assumed I was on tinder or something like that.

  278. AP says:
    @Ytterbium Jones

    “Neither of us are yet middle-aged”

    There’s two of you?

    She and Karlin, the person she was writing to. Are you capable of reading?

    • Replies: @Ytteribum Jones
  279. Pixo says:
    @Ron Unz

    “ I do have pretty solidly established views that Putin’s invasion was very reasonably justified based upon so many years of blatant American/NATO provocations”

    While I agree Russia was provoked, that’s missing my point. Putin is Russia’s George W Bush because he took the bait and sent Russia’s martial youth into a meat grinder, while damaging its moral and military reputation. Just like W.

    You also leave out that the provocations went both ways. Russia has a history of supporting separatist movements in any of its neighbors that stray from complete subservience: Armenia, Ukraine, and Moldova. Russia also is a safe haven for cybercriminals (though to be fair Ukraine is too).

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
  280. utu says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    “Russia could disprove Ukrainian claims with ease if they were false”

  281. Mr. Hack says:
    @songbird

    I thought that it’s already been decided that utu is a Silesian German/Pole, or is it a Polish/German? 🙂

    • Replies: @AP
    , @songbird
  282. Mikhail says: • Website

    While I agree Russia was provoked, that’s missing my point. Putin is Russia’s George W Bush because he took the bait and sent Russia’s martial youth into a meat grinder, while damaging its moral and military reputation. Just like W.

    The book is still out. Ritter, Macgregor et al., believe something substantial within the next two months, benefiting Russia. Iraq not as much a US security concern relative to Ukraine’s status vis-a-vis Russia.

    You also leave out that the provocations went both ways. Russia has a history of supporting separatist movements in any of its neighbors that stray from complete subservience: Armenia, Ukraine, and Moldova. Russia also is a safe haven for cybercriminals (though to be fair Ukraine is too).

    Armenia is in the CSTO and EEU unlike Azerbaijan. Russia nonetheless doesn’t recognize Nagorno-Karabakh. Neither does Armenia.

    In Pridnestrovie (Transnistria and closely related spellings), there’s a rock solid pro-Russian majority. Russia shouldn’t care about them? Russia hasn’t formally recognized Pridnestrovie.

    As for Ukraine, it could’ve remained in its Soviet drawn boundary with a militarily neutral position and respect for the different views within that territory.

  283. @AP

    But hasn’t TL admitted to being a woman? Now she’s a 220-pound, 10% bodyfat Navy SEAL? (No such “woman” actually exists.)

    We all know she ain’t talking about Karlin!

    What TL wrote makes it seem as though she’s teamposting. As though the Navy SEAL bodybuilder is her husband or boyfriend. (Possibly imaginary.) I don’t know. Like I said, it basically just seems like a schizopost. Maybe TL is a malfunctioning bot. This is perhaps the most parsimonious explanation.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Best to apologise
  284. Sean says:
    @S

    War is a political event of the state to which the interests of the nation are often opposed. The nation state is not a biological entity. ‘Diversity (immigration) makes us stronger ‘. Stronger against who? Other nation states obviously. Is the geo-political aggrandizement of a state often pyrrhic for the nation, yes.

    • Disagree: S
    • Replies: @S
  285. utu says:
    @Ron Unz

    I do have pretty solidly established views that Putin’s invasion was very reasonably justified based upon so many years of blatant American/NATO provocations. – Ron Unx

    LOL did not seem appropriate because this is not a laughing matter. One no longer needs to wonder whether the publication profile of www-unz-com webzine is a function of Ron Unz being contrarian or uber-libertarian trying to give voice to all opposite sides to the main stream narratives. No, Ron Unz is on Putin side because he believes and agrees with the official Kremlin narrative. Ron Unz is not just another publisher in the marketplace. He is Putin’s publisher. The Unz Review should be renamed to The Puntz Review.

    • LOL: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @silviosilver
  286. AP says:
    @Ytteribum Jones

    She was in a dialogue with Karlin and stated that neither she nor he were middle aged. It seemed fairly clear to me.

    She also claimed to be a muscular 220 (female) veteran, which is possible (maybe she rounded up to 100 kg) if she is tall. If true and no reason to assume otherwise she is a very interesting person.

    • LOL: sher singh
  287. AP says:
    @Mr. Hack

    His knowledge and statements indicate a German connection close to Czechoslovakia, the way he was triggered by Bandera screams “Poland.” So either a Silesian Pole (most likely) or a Pole with a German grandparent from a part of Poland not far from the southern border.

    Still one of my favorite commenters, I forgive his paranoia and wounded pride. He is brilliant and humane.

    • Agree: Yahya
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  288. songbird says:
    @Mr. Hack

    That seems to be the general axis of interest, but it would still be nice to have it confirmed and measured, at least in quarters.

    BTW, try also to see if you can ferret out his current country of residence. Once I had the fanciful notion that he and German_reader have crossed paths in IRL, without each knowing it. Wouldn’t it be very ironic if he were bashing Germans, while living in Germany? (and I appreciate that sort of irony.)

    I half suspect that is why he is reluctant to answer (he is an expat.) Though, perhaps, that would not make sense on the energy front.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
  289. @AP

    220 pounds at 10% bodyfat would be exceptional for a male. Arnold Schwarzenegger was smaller and/or fatter than that in most of his movies. For a female, it’s absurd and totally unbelievable.

    This is Gabi Garcia:

    Ms. Garcia is a biological female MMA fighter. 6’2″, no less than 15-16% bodyfat, 217 pounds in the pic. She’s a 1-in-ten-million athlete — her height alone has her at nearly+4SD — and she’s clearly on tons of anabolics.

    220 pounds at 10% is much, much more muscular than that. On a female (and no such females exist, for most female pro bodybuilders are much shorter and lighter, and most female strength athletes are much fatter,) it would be completely grotesque and freakshow-tier. The unbelievable thing is not the weight, but the “10% bodyfat” claim.

    “No reason to assume otherwise”? Bro, if you understood her correctly, she’s claiming that she’s literally the most muscular woman on Earth. (Or she’s simply schizo, or she somehow brought her — presumably imaginary — boyfriend/husband into the picture.)

    • Agree: silviosilver
    • Replies: @Best to apologise
    , @AP
    , @AP
  290. Seraphim says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    The only point of Russia ‘invading’ Ukraine was repeatedly made by Putin: if Ukraine continue its provocations against Russia, it would have dire consequences for the Ukrainian state. Ukraine will never recover Donbass, Novorussia and Crimea. It is partially done and would be complete after recovering Odessa. After that Elenski can continue to play the piano. People need comic relief.

    • Replies: @Best to apologise
  291. Mr. Hack says:
    @AP

    Yeah, I agree, most of the time he’s spot on. My ex was actually from Silesia. She told me that it wasn’t really unusual to visit a German home in the area and still see a portrait of Hitler hung on the wall. I queeried her about this several times and she stuck to her story. And I thought that Americans were eccentric for watching Hogan’s Heroes reruns on the tube. 🙂

  292. @AP

    She also claimed to be a muscular 220 (female) veteran, which is possible (maybe she rounded up to 100 kg) if she is tall.

    Lol. ZERO chance of a woman being 220 at 10% bodyfat, no matter how much PEDs she uses. That is exceptional development even for a male (under 6′) on PEDs, but at least within the realms of possibility.

    • Replies: @sher singh
    , @Mikel
    , @Wokechoke
  293. @Ytterbium Jones

    My God, I was talking about two people and the stronger one is a man. There was no lie there.

    As for being “weirdos”, absolutely. You don’t know a millionth of it. And? I thought my comment was quite clear in that regard.

    Anyway, for your calculation: 200cm at 100kgs is barely even overweight on the bmi. The body fat is very low, but far from that difficult, plus body fat measures are rough and smart watches are low accuracy, so might be as high as 14%, making it pretty easy. Regardless, it doesn’t matter for the point.

    • Replies: @sher singh
  294. @Seraphim

    The next moron to use the word “provocations,” as if it means anything at all in the context of a murderous invasion, can burn in hell. It will clear up their obvious personality disorder. Seriously! The word may be ok for a ghetto shootout, or a playground tiff, but what, honestly, are you on about?

    Omg, Ukraine “provoked” me and I just couldn’t help myself but launch a disastrous war which will likely leave 6 figures dead and 8 figures as refugees!

    Yes, well, if you’re telling the truth, you should be in an insane asylum, or your psyche should be purified through infernal fire.

    Let’s all stop sounding like abject drooling imbeciles please.

    • Replies: @Seraphim
  295. @utu

    It’s a perfectly respectable realist interpretation of the conflict’s origins. You don’t have to like Putin or Russia or want them to prevail to draw those conclusions. In fact, you can vehemently oppose Russia and still maintain that Ukraine was for them such a vital ‘red line’ security issue that backing them into a corner over it triggered the war. Believing that the west helped provoke Russia into attacking doesn’t require western countries to lie down and allow Russia to roll over them.

    • Replies: @Matra
  296. @Ytteribum Jones

    If you go back into my comments, from the beginning, you will see that I was always open about being two people. One (female) comments a lot more, and the male adds some knowledge, mostly about the infantry and leadership experiences and so on. How else do you think all of my Ukrainian posts are full of the correct terminology used in the correct way? Or do you, like most people here, not notice that, because you’re about as knowledgeable on the topic as a fish is about wheat fields? And yet you likely pretend otherwise under your other alt.

    • Replies: @AP
  297. 216 says: • Website

    Macron has made an unforced error by promising two-tier EU membership for Ukraine. The crux of why the people are supposedly fighting is to join the EU and be as prosperous as Poland.

    Currently the West is only imposing half-hearted sanctions on Russia, rather than the stick of a full embargo against the carrot of EU membership after regime change.

    No one is going to risk prison or death for a lower tier of EU membership.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    , @Thulean Friend
  298. 216 says: • Website
    @Ron Unz

    However, that’s an entirely different question than the origins of the war and the years of provocations that finally forced Putin’s hand.

    If Russia makes a move to put the missiles back in Cuba, this will be excellent justification to remove the Communist regime there and in Venezuela.

  299. 216 says: • Website
    @Triteleia Laxa

    A further subtle problem for Russia is that it is the learning and adapting army that improves relatively over time, even for its given amount of force, and the Ukrainian structure is much better at learning. They also have much more flexible supply as the US will be sending them a very wide range of arms and then doubling and tripling down on what works.

    The US has done literally nothing to indicate that we would supply the F-35 to Ukraine, just yesterday the Congress was complaining about it being ineffective. Nor has there been a move to send the large number of old F-15 and F-16. Not even a deal that the US would buy JAS39 from Sweden to give to Ukraine, to sweeten the NATO membership deal.

    It’s one thing to sink an old 1970s cruiser, but another to sink a nuclear submarine. No indications that the US is going to give ASW capability to Ukraine, or offer to buy them the same submarines that Israel has.

    The US/NATO are not showing seriousness. They aren’t creating a buildup in the Baltics/Finland, to raise the possibility of a quick invasion to seize St Petersburg, nor a buildup in Alaska to take largely empty Far Eastern Russia. In 1973 Israel recovered to end up occupying more Arab land post-war than it did before. If part of pre-2014 Russia was under occupation, with no route of removal other than nukes, any Russian government would cough up Crimea.

  300. @Triteleia Laxa

    successful democracies have resolve (20 years in Afghanistan) that mediocre petrol stations do not.

    I’ve heard this line a few times and it seems like an extremely silly cope, on par with many of the sillier pro-Russian copes. It basically translates into “Yes! Rich Americans can maintain fundamentally stupid, destructive, wasteful ventures far longer than poorer countries! Rock on, America! We’re the BEST!”

    Sorry, I just can’t see the ability to do stupid stuff longer as being some kind of badge of merit.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Beckow
  301. AP says:
    @Ytterbium Jones

    Sure, I suspect she just rounded up from 80 or 90 kg which is rare but possible.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
  302. A123 says: • Website

    WHOOPS !!!!

    U.S. Government Admits Ukraine Cannot Win (1)

    Joe Manchin, questions Defense Intel Agency (DIA) Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier and Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Avril Haines about whether Ukraine can actually win the current war with Russia. It’s an interesting exchange because none of the DeceptiCon senators will usually approach the issue.

    Lt General Scott Berrier (DIA) says [00:56], “that is a difficult predication to make. I think where the [DIA assessment] is at is a prolonged stalemate should no factor change on either side. In other words, the Russians continue to do what they’re doing, and we continue to do what we are doing for the Ukranians.” Read that emphasis carefully.

    What Berrier is saying is affirming we are in a direct proxy war. So long as the United States remains the essential fighting force behind the Ukrainian military, they can achieve a stalemate. However, if the United States withdraws support, Russia will win.

    How is perpetual “money pit” operation that yields a stalemate in the interest of American citizen taxpayers?

    There is a huge list of needs here at home that take precedence over The Folly of Foreign Futility. The incoming MAGA House will rightly insist on U.S. Border funding equal to Ukraine Border funding

    How will Not-The-President Biden’s puppeteers react to the concept of Secure Borders for U.S. Citizens?

    My guess is that it will be like an old black-&-white film where Holy Water is tossed on a vampire.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/05/11/interesting-joe-manchin-questions-dia-berrier-and-dni-haines-about-whether-ukraine-can-win-dia-confirms-we-are-in-a-proxy-war-with-russia/

  303. AP says:
    @Ytterbium Jones

    Okay, I take back my previous comment and apologize. It is, apparently, two people writing under one pen name after all. How strange. I’ve seen couples with one facebook account but never a shared commenter identity.

    • Agree: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @songbird
  304. Mikhail says: • Website
    @216

    Trash Talkin

    Two below excerpts from the below linked Twitter feed. Some might argue that Zakharova has reached the level of some in the West.

    Zakharova was always bad, but now she is so bad that it is finally good. In other words, the global level of diplomacy has reached the level of Zakharova. That’s sad.

    Social media is the downfall of civilized society, I swear. As sick a burn as this was, this just isn’t how heads of state are supposed to act. Like, am I just old? I still shudder at the mention of things like “Trump’s official twitter” and “Zelensky’s Facebook” accounts.

  305. AP says:
    @Barbarossa

    It’s more a reflection of wealth and power than a badge of merit. Rich individuals can eat \$100 hamburgers with gold flakes that they later shit out every day if they feel like it; rich powerful countries can violently occupy some hapless country on the other side of the world for no gain for 20 years if they feel like it.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
  306. As I pick through McGilchrist’s The Master and his Emissary (somewhat slow going as I don’t get long stretches for reading this time of year) there are quite a few interesting example of the differing functions of the right and left hemispheres of the brain. Because the right hemisphere perceives and communicates a more nuanced emotional range and that hemisphere controls the left side of the body there is a preference for greater emotional communication by the left side of the face and body.

    He gives the example of humans as well as chimps and gorillas having a preference for holding their young with the left arm, therefore presenting the left side of the face preferentially. I mentioned this to my wife and she indeed never was able to manage holding any of the babies much with the right arm. She would try to as the left would sometimes get tired but she said it just never felt right or seemed natural so she would always revert back to the left.

    As I read that section it also dawned on me that I do indeed transmit more emotional signalling with my left side (despite being strongly right handed). If I half smile or raise and eyebrow in askance it is always with the left side. If I shrug the left shoulder goes higher and more forward and hand motions during conversations have more range of motion on the left.

    Anyhow, I found it interesting. I’m also left eye dominant, which I suspect he will get into at some point. It was a bit of a revelation in shooting accurately when I stopped trying to use my right eye. I just assumed at first, being so right handed!

  307. Beckow says:
    @Barbarossa

    It is a coping mechanism: “we can screw people (and also screw ourselves in the process) better than they can, Hurrah!” It goes with their inane accusations of “what-aboutism” when they are shown reality. Right, how about all the real things you did and are doing? It drives them crazy so they become incoherent and hysterical.

    But it is also pathology, definitely in Laxa’s case. There is too much bravado and that suggests lack of inner self-confidence. They must “win”. If they can’t win a real war – as they can’t here or in Iraq-Afghanistan – they will charge castles in the air like Don Quichote. AP has already shifted to what looks like a very minimal goal of continued plumbing in Galicia with bike-trails funded by Bussels, and maybe a few Erasmus scholarships. That’s a win for him now, that will show those Russkies.

    A nice summary of where the collective West is with their “you have to have principles” is in this clip from the end of In Bruges (great movie):

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Wielgus
  308. Wokechoke says:
    @Philip Owen

    Well…six of one half a dozen of another. The extensive British naval and Air Assault presence there is notable for all sorts of reasons. Butter wouldn’t melt in the Tories mouth now would it?

  309. Mikel says:
    @Seraphim

    OK, stop it!

    Who are you speaking to, Laxa-M or Laxa-F?

    • Replies: @Seraphim
  310. @AP

    Sure, I suspect she just rounded up from 80 or 90 kg which is rare but possible.

    Anyone who has (or claims to have) achieved a very low bodyfat at a high BMI didn’t do it by chance. It requires years of patient striving. Such people are keenly aware of their “stats.” At most they’d round up a poundage to make it end in a 5 or 0. No one in the fitness sphere would ever “round up” 90kg to 100kg, let alone 80kg to 100kg.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
  311. @AP

    I suppose one could look at it that way if they wanted to. I think it’s a flaw analogy though.

    The 20 year Afghanistan debacle is not the sort of conspicuous consumption that elevates a nation’s prestige. Something like a space program can be seen as such a prestige luxury endeavor. It signals, rightly or wrongly, that a nation is so darned wealthy that it can just throw money at less pressing matters like sending men to the moon.

    A long term failed military occupation just marks a county as ineffectual and too stupidly stubborn to admit a failed strategy. I highly doubt that the halls of the UN are full of other nations saying, “Dang, that U.S. and their Afghanistan venture! I sure hope that we can someday be so successful as to invade a country and conduct a war for 20 years that ends with our original foes in power! Such a power move!”

    I guess some idiots could be envious of other greater idiots (who is stupider, the idiot or the idiot who envies him?) shitting gold flakes, but I would bet that nobody is actually envious over the US performance in Afghanistan.

    If your idea of national prestige was true I suppose the most boss move for Russia right now would be to completely pull stakes and give back Crimea and the Donbass, no strings attached. They could even insist that NATO set up shop in Ukraine on account of being so stronk. That would show the world what a successful and powerful country Russia is and give little countries everywhere something to really aspire to!

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @AP
    , @Triteleia Laxa
  312. songbird says:
    @Barbarossa

    Hahahaha! I still refuse to read it on principal (sounds a bit hippyish, and a lot of scientific papers are total junk), but what you said here is really interesting:

    He gives the example of humans as well as chimps and gorillas having a preference for holding their young with the left arm, therefore presenting the left side of the face preferentially.

    Years and years ago, I think I remember hearing that dogs preferentially glance at the left side of the human face to read expressions. (And I’ve definitely seen them glance, though I couldn’t say where they center their eyes) Wish I knew if wolves also do it.

    Reminds me, once I surmised that dogs knew that I was right-handed. I would throw something up high and catch it with my other hand, and then go back the other way, even higher, and somehow they seemed to know which hand would invariably drop it, even though I usually did make it back and forth a few times.

    BTW, I did recently hear of another mindblowing book on the brain. An Empirical Introduction to Youth. Basically, it debunks the progressive idea that the brain is still developing into the early twenties. And that we don’t become adults by the end of puberty, which incidentally is much earlier than progressives say it is.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    , @S
  313. @silviosilver

    For what it’s worth, TL clarified (I guess??) under the handle “Best to apologize” in comment 303 and AP recanted in comment 310. The whole thing still seems strange and confusing especially with Triteleia Laxa referring now referring to (themselves?) sometimes in the third person with a sock-puppet handle.

    Oh well, the plot thickens…

    • Replies: @silviosilver
  314. Seraphim says:
    @Mikel

    I was speaking to the laxative which goes by the moniker ‘Best to apologize’.

  315. @songbird

    Interestingly to your point, my wife just informed me that you always train a dog to heel on the left side. Presumably for similar reasons.

    I’ll have to check out your book suggestion (though I need more books to read like I need a hole in the head). I’ve never bought the idea that 20 somethings were structurally incapable of being reasonable human beings, since for most of human history this was patently not the case.

    I wouldn’t say that McGilchrist’s book is at all hippyish. It’s certainly possible that he is wrong, but I don’t get the impression that he is a fool.

    • Thanks: songbird
  316. AP says:
    @Best to apologise

    If you go back into my comments, from the beginning, you will see that I was always open about being two people.

    Isn’t that a bizarre way of putting it? Who is this “I”? Do you consider your pseudonym to be some kind of an entity consisting of two people? Why not just write “two people write under this name,” rather than “I am two people.”

    Nothing wrong with eccentricity of course, I’m just noting the strangeness.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  317. @Barbarossa

    This book is a much quicker read. Amen has performed a bunch of image brain scans. SPECT (the one he prefers) and MRI. His most salient finding is almost never does a brain look much like the textbook brain diagrams. An extremely popular art book many years ago was called “Drawing on the Right Side of the Brain”. I liked the book and I mentioned it to a few artist friends of mine. The consensus among them was that if you are only using half your brain you are using your brain ineptly.

    The most interesting bit in Amen’s book: if you want to date one of his daughters (but not his sons) he needs a scan of your brain first. : )

    The thing about mommies prefering to left arm their infants is the one single best bit in McGilchrist’s book. He bats at least 1 for 100 000!

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
  318. AP says:
    @Beckow

    AP has already shifted to what looks like a very minimal goal of continued plumbing in Galicia with bike-trails funded by Bussels

    You manage to lie about me when not even in a discussion with me.

    I certainly did not predict or claim or make a goal of Ukraine limited to Galicia and Volhynia. When speculating about how long it would take Ukraine to join the EU I wrote:

    “I think it will depend on the size of Ukraine. If Ukraine wins the war and gets all of its territory back so it’s a country of 30-35 million people, it may indeed take 20 years (decades). If Russia takes everything but Galicia, Volhynia and Transcarpathia (8 million people) this small Ukraine would probably be in the EU within 5-10 years. It would fairly quickly become just another Visegrad country. If it is is half of Ukraine (West and Center, including Kiev – about 18 million people) it will probably be somewhere in between, 10 to 20 years to join EU.”

    I think the odds of Ukraine winning and getting all of its pre-February 2022 territory back are better than the odds of Ukraine getting pushed back to just Galicia and Volhynia, the latter is the least likely outcome. But I don’t make a prediction.

    BTW Russians just lost nearly an entire battalion trying to cross a river in Donbas:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/05/11/the-russians-lost-nearly-an-entire-battalion-trying-to-cross-a-river-in-eastern-ukraine/?sh=6226114d1689

    “The 17th’s shelling destroyed at least seven T-72 and T-80 tanks, 17 BMPs, seven MT-LB armored tractors, five other vehicles and much of the bridging unit itself, including a tugboat and the pontoon span.”

    At least a couple hundred dead Russian soldiers, probably a few hundred.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    , @Pixo
  319. AP says:
    @Barbarossa

    I compared the two not because they were both prestigious but because they are both ways the rich can afford to waste money frivolously and not have serious consequences. A poor person would eat a couple \$100 burgers and then go hungry; a poor and weak country can get into an invasion debacle and default or lose what power it has left, but the rich and strong can just shrug off these idiocies.

    • Replies: @A123
  320. songbird says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Neither of us are yet middle-aged

    True middle age begins earlier than is the common delusion. If we think clearly about it, probably not later than the late 20s.

    [MORE]

    your psyche should be purified through infernal fire.

    Strange construction. Especially when paired with this one:

    I know my psychology is unusual. Trust me, both other professionals and even religions have told me

    Care to elaborate? (Christianity believes in the soul)

    twice-medalled veteran

    Thought they gave out medals like they were crackerjack prizes. Aren’t all those campaign ribbons called “medals?”

    successful democracies have resolve (20 years in Afghanistan) that mediocre petrol stations do not.

    Are you sure this isn’t a cope? (from participating).

    I don’t mean to sound mean, but I like being contrarian, and was triggered by you treating Seraphim like he was a character in a Harlan Ellison (terrible writer, IMO) novel. Plus, I dislike your phrase “successful democracies” which sounds like a Pinkerian cope.

  321. Sean says:
    @silviosilver

    I think Russia is losing, the ratio of those currently killed is probably around 2Russians for every Ukrainins and may be in the process of becoming even less favourable , which suggests that Ukraine has parity in numbers at the line of contact and better weapons.

    To keep the Western publics’ support for subsidizing Ukraine’s fight, Western intel and the Ukrainians themselves are continuing to create the misleading impression that Ukraine is about to suffer major defeats and a massive Russian attack. But the collerary is that Western governments are high on their own supply; do not realise how close Russia is to contemplating desperate measures. The West may write off a Russian threat to do something drastic as a bluff and hyperbole.

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @silviosilver
  322. @AP

    His response to me was hilarious both in how wrong it was in how he inflated his own credentials as an “expert.”

    Martynov’s excessive reliance on credentialism was an early red flag. IIRC, there has been research that people who put PhD in their titles on social media tend to be less accomplished than PhDs who don’t.

    People who rely on titles in lieu of careful analysis tend to be mediocre and Martynov’s no exception.

    • Agree: Barbarossa
  323. @songbird

    BTW, try also to see if you can ferret out his current country of residence.

    My casual impression has always been that utu is ethnically Polish, don’t know how the meme that he was Czech ever resurfaced. The Silesian part is interesting to ponder but ultimately not consequential, given that it’s not a serious independence movement like the Catalan. So whether he is Silesian or not has little bearing.

    As for his country of residence, utu’s knowledge of America strikes me as unusual for someone not living there. He has often posted minute details of older American TV shows and local knowledge, so my assumption is that he’s an American, possibly eastern coast (though I am less sure about geographic concentration within the US). Given that you come from the Boston area (as I understand it) and AP is in the North-East, it would be funny if utu was also from that area and yet all three have never met.

    But we will likely never know for certain since he doesn’t address the topic.

  324. @216

    Macron has made an unforced error by promising two-tier EU membership for Ukraine.

    The West never viewed Ukraine as more than an expendable puppet, as I’ve warned from the start. They are supporting the state to prevent its collapse but nobody should hold any delusions that Ukraine will be a member any time soon.

    Besides, the new idea from Macron is broader than just Ukraine. It would encompass countries like Georgia and perhaps Serbia or Turkey. He calls it a “political community” which is an euphemism for client state. Some gibs given in expectation of greater obedience, but no influence over EU’s voting.

    There’s a parallel track within the EU to create a “two-speed Europe” which isn’t a new idea either, with countries like France, Germany, Spain, Netherlands joining closer together whereas smaller countries like Sweden or Denmark would be on the outside (we’re also not part of the eurozone).

    That idea has pursued before and it’s being floated again. I’m skeptical as to whether it will come to pass. I don’t see Dutch or German taxpayers being eager to foot the bill for southern profligacy.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    , @German_reader
  325. S says:
    @songbird

    I wonder if it would work as a PSA for liberals. To try to garner sympathy for the individual and then to transition to the nation state. Use the old national personifications.

    Not a bad idea conceptually. Alas, the modern liberals have largely become extremely violent, consumed with hatred, fanatical, and totalitarian, and may very well try to burn the TV station down broadcasting such a PSA in a ‘mostly peaceful’ protest.

    They are just scapegoating nationalism. The real issue is the hubris of elites, and they haven’t identified it correctly…

    I think that’s a valid point. I’ve thought for awhile that within the Anglosphere countrys those large and powerful segments of the elites and their hangers on involved in slavery and it’s trade never truly dealt with the fact. What’s more, rather than abolishing it, I submit they instead monetized it with the early 19th century introduction of wage slavery, ie the so called ‘cheap labor’/’mass immigration’ system.

    I think deep down in their hearts they know they lied about slavery’s abolition, both to themselves, and to their own people, and to the world besides, and hate themselves (and their own) for it. They can’t give up the ill gotten money being made from wage slavery (ie ‘cheap labor’) though and would rather die and take the world down with them, than do that. [The 1874 London newspaper article linked below specifically identifies ‘race’ as the primary impediment blocking the succesful enmasse predation of China’s hundreds of millions of people as wage slaves (‘cheap labor’) by Anglosphere countries, and hence the financial rational, ie pure greed, for the modern progressive anti-race campaign euphamistically called ‘anti-racism’.]

    Since 1619 in Jamestown, when slaves were first imported by diktat, the answer to this has always been the same…separate from these narcaccistic/self destructive types.

    A shame, if not an outright crime, to give up the likes of the lead singer below, Valerie Coughlin, because a relative few (albeit powerful) and their hangers on have refused historically to pay their own people the prevailing real time local costs of labor, and instead import alien chattel or wage slaves.

    They should have been overthrown long ago for the corrupt frauds that they are.

    https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=chi.55223460&view=1up&seq=136&skin=2021

    • Thanks: songbird, Mr. Hack
  326. @Sean

    Well okay, I don’t want to hung up on that detail. My point was really that Russia is hardly on the verge of imminent defeat – and certainly nothing that would destroy the nation itself – and yet AK’s willing to go “Samson” on the world, potentially permanently jeopardizing the human future (which is the effect that initiating a Kessler syndrome would have), for the sake of his wounded national pride? What an asshole.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  327. @Barbarossa

    Yeah, I know. I assumed ‘best to apologize’ was TL from the get-go. Also weird was that Ytter Jones guy, who also, at the same time, chose to make his first ever post in a reply the very same comment. Another potential TL sock, with fittingly weird content, given the context (ie ‘debating’ itself)?

  328. Latest autotranslate with minor corrections and my note below of short military action summary by Strelkov:

    “No change on the Western front.” – True for most of the front line.

    Several seperate known moments:

    According to unverified data, the enemy in the area of ​​the settlement Ternovaya (Kharkov region) went directly to the state border of the Russian Federation. The settlement itself, apparently, is also occupied by the enemy.

    In the area south of Kremennaya (LPR), the Russian troops, forcing the Seversky Donets river and trying to break through towards the group operating from Popasnaya, failed. The city of Liman (which according to Y. Podolyaka* “is about to be taken” for three or four weeks, or even more) is still firmly in the hands of the enemy.

    It is not clear (for me) the situation on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk in Maryinka. Official sources claim that part of the village is still in the hands of the DPR Armed Forces and the fighting continues in the area of ​​the waste heap. Unofficial ones – they report that (as I already wrote), supposedly, the village is again under the complete control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (it is occupied by Ukrainians as a result of poorly organized shuffling of parts of the DPR) and now – not daring to report this “up” – the command is urgently gathering forces, in order to recapture the positions previously taken (with great bloodshed).

    In the area south of Izyum and in the “opposite direction of the offensive” – ​​near Gulyai-Pole – no advance of Russian troops was noted.

    *YouTube host of pro-RF military prop-pop “analytic” channel

    https://vk.com/igoristrelkov?w=wall347260249_655646

  329. S says:
    @Sean

    Diversity (immigration) makes us stronger ‘. Stronger against who? Other nation states obviously.

    And presumably you also believe in War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, and, Ignorance is Strength, right?

    What I could make out of it, the rest of your post comes off as ethono-masochism wrapped up in pseudo-intellectualism.

    I suppose we’ll just have agree to disagree, and leave it at that.

  330. Wielgus says:
    @Beckow

    Bruges has more or less the same weather as south-east England and the snow in the scene was not very convincing.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  331. sher singh says:
    @silviosilver

    Laxa is a tranny..

    [MORE]

    Also, yea a ‘doctor’ should know how lean 10% is for a female.

  332. sher singh says:
    @Best to apologise

    A 200cm man at 10-14% BF & 100kg is in the top 5% of natural physiques.
    Imagine dating a wine-jew like Laxa..

    Or ur just a tranny like I said.
    Would make sense since Jewish + Anglo (UK) + psycotic

  333. Mr. Hack says:
    @Thulean Friend

    It’s my understanding that Ukraine is currently an associate member of the EU and is also a part of its wider and very important Free Trade Zone. It would seem that Ukraine already has access to most of any benefits of EU membership, without any negative cultural implications (globohomo, anti-Christian elements etc.), that it[s clearly not in any hurry to acquire. In other words, it seems to have the best of both worlds, as any military benefits to be gained from full membership seem to be negligible. Also, I don’t recall Russia going way out of its way to criticize Ukraine’s aspirations to continue the status quo, at least not since after 2014 when it gained its associate status. So, why does it need or even want full membership status at this point?

    • Replies: @Sean
  334. Mr. Hack says:
    @AP

    Maybe she’s schizophrenic, although “high intelligence linked to reduced risk of schizophrenia” and she clearly possesses that.

    https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/287555#:~:text=People%20with%20high%20intelligence%20may,The%20American%20Journal%20of%20Psychiatry

    Whatever she is, she’s certainly my choice for best new commenter at this blog for 2021-2022. Last place would have to go to the ever increasing disappointment,”Svidomyatheart”..

  335. @Mr. Hack

    Sorry, it is all so simple, yet so difficult to explain for the following reasons:

    1. TL is an account that is sometimes used by two people. One is a man and one is a woman. Always has been.

    2. Only one person can write at any one time so it is more natural to write “I” when making a comment.

    3. The TL account is limited to 3 posts in any 24 hours by Ron Unz. This is because Ron could not deal with his ridiculous conspiracy theories being exposed, though Ron claims, without evidence or even logic, that he did this because there was porn posted on the TL account. It is kind of pathetic really.

    4. Neither of the two people who occasionally use the TL account wants to post with sock puppets, nor is the intention to trick anyone, it was just necessary because otherwise they would have had to wait 24 hours and so much misunderstanding was occuring. In particular, it seemed like you had misinterpreted some comments as an insult to you, which therefore needed immediate clarification in order not to be rude to you.

    I don’t believe in the use of alternative accounts, but this is an exception.

    5. Given that sock puppets are banned, it is best to write in a more ambiguous way, when writing from them, in order not to give too obvious an excuse for Ron to further use his banhammer.

    • Thanks: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    , @Mr. Hack
  336. @Hopefully straightforward explainer

    I know you’ve mentioned the post limit and I’ve always wondered what that was about. On a supposed free speech platform, it doesn’t do for Ron to limit posting in extraordinary ways unless there is some sort of flagrant abuse.

    Whether people like the content or not, I’ve never seen anything posted by you that would in any way justify such a move.

    Unless there is something I’m missing, I think that Ron should give you the same rules as other posters.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
  337. Sean says:
    @Mr. Hack

    The EU is the economic wing of Nato and has often been the carrot for poor countries to get them to join Nato (Greece) or be associated with it (Ireland). Being the poorest country in the EU has great benefits, because Structural Funds flow in. From 1973 to 2018 Ireland was a net recipient of €40 billion. But it is now a net contributor. Since 2004, Poland has received over 213 billion euros, it is a decade away from being a net contributer. I suppose the plan is for the EU (basically Germany capital) to rebuild Ukraine and it to become a market for German goods under the export subsidy program for German industry known as the Single Currency.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Sean
  338. @Thulean Friend

    I know utu has mentioned Wegmans supermarkets in the past which narrows it down a bit. Wegman’s is a Rochester NY based company with a long history in Western NY, though they have been expanding considerably to the North, East, and South in recent years. I would say he is certainly somewhere in the NE of the USA.

    • Thanks: Thulean Friend
  339. Mr. Hack says:
    @Hopefully straightforward explainer

    Everybody that posts comments here is limited to “three…per several hours rule, I think? Are you saying that Ron Unz has specifically targeted you for more draconian measures? In my case, I can seeminly be able to override the “three strikes” rule,by waiting about one hour and then, it seems the clock starts anew, so it’s not a real big deal. Sometimes, I think that it lets me go to 4 or even 5 comments, before it gives me that nasty firewall?…Both he and the former director here, AK, however, have been rather charitable in allowing me to express myself fully, until AK seems to have gone over the edge with his new censorship policies towards the end of his tenure at this blog. If you missed that, Ron Unz, to his credit, put an end to that quickly.

  340. songbird says:
    @Thulean Friend

    A logical guess. (I’m thinking specifically of his interactions with one former commenter). He’s definitely spent time in America.

    But I’m not sure if he has observed the more recent decline, especially the last ten years or so. I sort of get the idea that he was here is his halcyon days (’80s?) and still sees America in that context, when it seemed a very compelling alternative to the USSR.

    But I could be mistaken. A lot of people have buried their heads in the sand about it, and that wouldn’t necessarily be at odds with his natural inclinations on the subject, if he has managed to do so with regard to Germany. A lot of these things are generational, anyway.

  341. @Thulean Friend

    The Silesian part is interesting to ponder but ultimately not consequential, given that it’s not a serious independence movement like the Catalan.

    That was a typo. He meant Sicilian. He is like Sonny Corleone in real life. Cruel, hot-tempered, huge dick.

  342. songbird says:
    @AP

    We have some keen eyes here. Has anyone previously noticed Trix’s other state?

    I must say that I have not, and find the whole thing very strange. Were it my wont to engage in psychobabble, I think I would use the term borderline personality disorder, which might agree with my theories about experience with and enthusiasm for lying on the couch.

    In the past, Trix seemed to me like a reliable “fingerprint” commentator, where one post after another clearly said she was a woman. Until this recent effort at bifurcation.

  343. Mikhail says: • Website

  344. A123 says: • Website
    @AP

    A poor person would eat a couple \$100 burgers and then go hungry; a poor and weak country can get into an invasion debacle and default or lose what power it has left, but the rich and strong can just shrug off these idiocies.

    The key point you have missed is that individuals and governments are very different.

    An individual paying for the \$100 burger is spending their own money. And, the expense includes the security cordon, exclusive location, servile & ingratiating staff, etc. The burger would be less appealing if they had to view the unwashed masses while eating it.

    National governments pay with money from their citizens, thus Taxpayers are important. What do U.S. Taxpayers obtain from an expensive stalemate in Ukraine? Elite Leftoid Globalists dream of glorious Forever Wars. After Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, etc. Taxpayers want to end such follies, which is why support for MAGA continues to grow.

    Not-The-President Biden has the lowest citizen support (∆) of any White House occupant. He has achieved the unachievable…. Most U.S. voters would choose Richard Nixon over Joe Biden. Zelensky needs to be ready for the inevitable, reduction in arms shipments and foreign aide cash transfers that will occur in ~12 months.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (∆) Note: The methodology of current Fake Stream Media “approval rating” is skewed by inclusion of non-citizens and a much higher level of non-responders in the population. Despite the similarity in name, sampling method changes mean that modern “approval ratings” do not directly compare to “approval ratings” from decades ago.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  345. @Ron Unz

    A search in Russian showed that a half of the reports about ten Russian generals come from the Ukrainian web sites, the other half is from resources like Radio Freedom and Voice of America, and the Israeli news web sites.

    The Russian sources, including the oppositional press reported that two generals have been killed in Ukraine so far.

    • Replies: @AP
  346. AP says:
    @Here Be Dragon

    If the West and Ukrainians are wrong, this means that 6-8 generals claimed to have been killed are actually alive. If they are actually alive one would think they just it would be simple to prove it. Yet where are they?

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Beckow
    , @Here Be Dragon
  347. A123 says: • Website
    @AP

    If the West and Ukrainians are wrong, this means that 6-8 generals claimed to have been killed are actually alive. If they are actually alive one would think they just it would be simple to prove it. Yet where are they?

    Is there any evidence these Generals existed before the names were announced as deceased in the Fake Stream Media? It is amazingly difficult for Russia to present people who never existed.

    Why does Ukraine not produces the bodies of those they killed? That should be easy for Zelensky’s forces. Yet where are they?

    PEACE 😇

  348. Mikel says:
    @silviosilver

    Lol. ZERO chance of a woman being 220 at 10% bodyfat, no matter how much PEDs she uses.

    That’s not entirely correct. Here is Nataliya Kuznetsova at 220 lb:

    Though tbh I don’t know about the 10% but she must be thereabouts. At 5% bodybuilders look much more ripped, I think.

    But yeah, Laxa’s claim was always suspect, to say the least 🙂 Maybe that’s why she’s now claiming to be two persons. She realized it was untenable.

    Songbird’s BPD theory also deserves serious attention though. The statement “I was always open about being two people” has a very weird vibe.

  349. S says:
    @songbird

    Basically, it debunks the progressive idea that the brain is still developing into the early twenties. And that we don’t become adults by the end of puberty, which incidentally is much earlier than progressives say it is.

    That got me to thinking about the movie Master and Commander and it’s depiction of child officers in the British navy during the Napoleonic Wars. Apparently such was the case, but were they in reality mature enough? The British navy apparently thought so. And when did the practice stop, and why?

    It would be interesting to see how quickly home schooled children mature, providing they had some reasonable socialization with other kids, in comparison with public school children. Generally, from what I’ve heard, the home schooled children mature quicker.

    Social media seems to retard the maturation progress.

    Yes, naval officers were often fairly young, and yes, midshipmen would often be in their early teens….In the period of the Napoleonic wars, many boys went to sea as young as 11 or 12 to start building up the required sea time, or were at least put on ship’s books by captains who were friends or relatives of their families to start building up the required sea time.

    It wasn’t uncommon for boys to be placed on the books even earlier, and this practice (though technically illegal) was viewed with some benevolence, because as navigation (particularly finding longitude) became more complicated, most boys needed a few years of schooling ashore, particularly in mathematics.

    During the Napoleonic Wars, how young were naval officers and noncommissioned officers? from AskHistorians

    • Replies: @songbird
    , @Philip Owen
  350. Beckow says:
    @AP

    You can’t prove a negative. Kiev could simply declare any pictures as “fake”, or come up with new names. Why engage in that game?

    The veracity of these reports makes no difference to the outcome of the war. You are too obsessed with media presentations, while one look at a current map gives us much better picture.

    • Replies: @utu
  351. Beckow says:
    @AP

    …I think the odds of Ukraine winning and getting all of its pre-February 2022 territory back are better than the odds of Ukraine getting pushed back to just Galicia and Volhynia, the latter is the least likely outcome. But I don’t make a prediction.

    Do you seriously think that Kiev can now push Russians out of Mariupol? Or even any of the Azov-Black See coast that they conquered? I would say a full blown nuclear war is more likely and the odds of that are 2-3%. Mariupol back to Kiev control? Really?

    My description of your lowered expectations with “plumbing still working in Galicia…” was not serious. You need to chill a little bit, we don’t know, we can’t predict, it is kind of a new world. Your quasi-autism shows when you start screaming about the distinction in Bretagne between 1900 and 1950 (now, that is insane) and when you constantly label everything is if there was only one way to describe a complex situation.

    Having said that, it would be a defeat for Kiev and the West if Russia shrinks Ukraine to Galicia-Volhynia-Kiev region. I don’t have to spell it out each time, whatever you want to call the West-Central Ukraine. And getting into EU would be actually harder because that region is poor in natural resources, would require more aid, and it would have an unresolved border. After the current enthusiasm subsides those realities would again be considered and again the the rump Ukraine would be put on secondary track. Listen to Macron and Austrians to see what would really happen, UK and US are not in EU, and Poland is barely in.

    By the way, Transcarpathia will be split between Hungary, Slovakia and Robert Maxwell’s grand-daughter, so don’t count on them.

    • Replies: @AP
  352. @Mikel

    You’re onto something bigger than Ukraine. Putin might be planning for a war with NATO and preserving most of the military and strategic forces for the big showdown. Only then would this be called a “war”.

    • Replies: @Parfois2
  353. Matra says:
    @silviosilver

    Diaspora nationalists care as much about realism & geopolitics in general as they do about the host countries which foolishly took them in. Their ‘passionate attachments’ trump everything else.

    • Agree: Mikhail
    • Replies: @silviosilver
  354. songbird says:
    @S

    That got me to thinking about the movie Master and Commander and it’s depiction of child officers

    Saw that movie in the theater. As I recall, they amusingly changed the plot to make the enemy a French ship, rather than an American one.

    [MORE]

    Hadn’t thought about the child officers in the navy. Wish I knew more about it. My impression was that it was sort of an apprenticeship thing, but that class came into it. (BTW, I was once previously amazed by how young (though not children) some high-ranking officers were in the American Civil War.)

    I’ve been fascinated by SMPY (Study of Mathematically Precocious Youth), which, if I understand correctly, is a study of supergeniuses. The cutoff it uses is a score of at least 700 on the math part of the SAT , before the age of 14, which actually doesn’t seem like a super-impressive score by itself, when taken at the normal age of 16-17.

    I listened to the author speak a bit, with another guy, and they said some amusing things.

    I think he cited 15 as the maturation point for males. (Maybe, with some maturing a bit earlier?) And I think he said 14 for girls. But that women only ever reach the approximate maturity of 13 year old boys. The frequently-cited immaturity of teenagers at home might really just be a consequence of them being forced into the very unnatural school environment, and made stressful by it.

    • Thanks: Thulean Friend
    • Replies: @songbird
    , @S
    , @Barbarossa
  355. songbird says:
    @Mikel

    One thing that makes me question it is her regular effort at psychoanalysis.

    I think some military guy would have advised her that it is a dead end with most males. And probably especially those with opinions strong enough to enjoy The Unz Review.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
  356. songbird says:
    @songbird

    What I meant to say with the SMPY thing is that you need to take the test before you are 14. So, I guess 13 is the cutoff, but you could take the test right before your 14th birthday, if I understand it correctly.

    This is really interesting to me, vis-à-vis the previously mentioned book. I wonder if it means that there isn’t a huge gain with girls if they take the test at 16-17 vs. 13 going on 14. It is just that there aren’t many female mathematical geniuses.

  357. AP says:
    @Beckow

    Do you seriously think that Kiev can now push Russians out of Mariupol? Or even any of the Azov-Black See coast that they conquered

    Ukraine is a lot more likely to take back Kherson than Russia is to conquer Kiev and reduce Ukraine to Galicia-Volhynia. Mariupol is now a ruined wreck of little use; if things go very poorly for Russia it may just abandon it.

    Your quasi-autism shows when you start screaming about the distinction in Bretagne between 1900 and 1950

    You claimed 19th century when I clearly wrote 1950 to current times. Pointing out that you lied about France’s language policy by claiming it was from the 19th century when in reality it was in the last half of the 20th century is not autism.

    Having said that, it would be a defeat for Kiev and the West if Russia shrinks Ukraine to Galicia-Volhynia-Kiev region. I don’t have to spell it out each time, whatever you want to call the West-Central Ukraine. And getting into EU would be actually harder because that region is poor in natural resources

    There are large gas deposits in Galicia and agriculture in the Right Bank between Kiev and Galicia. It is hardly a desert. The population would be small enough (18 million or so though it might increase with influx of easterners unwilling to live under Moscow) to benefit quickly from reconstruction and aid. It is also close to Western supply chains which is why all those light industrial factories were being built in places like Vynnytsia and Zhytomir. Your fantasy that this small Ukraine would be impoverished is not realistic.

    But, again, everything is in flux. Russia hasn’t lost all of its early gains but it is losing; yet, it has not yet been broken. At this point I think it is unlikely (but possible) that it will be able to move past Donbas and conquer Mikolayiv and Odessa, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk. It may very well lose Kherson city where people hate Russia and which is close to the frontline but is more likely to retain the land bridge south of Kherson city on the other side of the Dnipro river. But who knows? If Russia collapses in Donbas Ukraine may take back much more than expected.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Beckow
  358. @Mr. Hack

    You do not need to be Ron Unz to prove that these clips are disingenuous. You need to not be a complete idiot and that will be enough.

    The clip is titled “Russian soldiers sending the loot from Ukraine to Russia” and here is a screenshot.

    We an see that these men are wearing different uniform. There are three camo patterns that we can see.

    Here is another screenshot.

    One more camo pattern. These men are not soldiers. Had they been soldiers they would have been wearing the same uniform.

    Finally, here is the Russian uniform. A completely different camo pattern. Different color, different pockets.

    The way you spell Belarus and Kiev speaks a lot about you too. You are a Ukrainian, coming here to spread this bullshit.

    That’s a shame.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    , @AP
    , @Triteleia Laxa
  359. Triteleia Laxa [AKA "Aether"] says:
    @songbird

    New permanent handle, to shrug off ban from commenting more than one time every 24 hours. I hope this honest change will be accepted by our host.

    1. I have mentioned that more than one person contribute to this account on a number of occasions.

    2. A resistance to introspection, psychoanalysis and other forms of therapy, is characteristic of people with Cluster B personality disorders, especially borderline personality disorder.

    I will expand on this later.

  360. Triteleia Laxa [AKA "Aether"] says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Cluster B personality disorders, of which BPD is one, are infamous for being dismissive of therapy and for almost never seeking it. They are also close to untreatable for related reasons. DBT might work, if they are young, and the therapist is enormously skillful and has the non-reactivity of a saint.

    Indeed, a lot of therapists will find a way out of agreeing to treat someone with BPD, as they are legitimately afraid of that individual splitting on them and trying to claim that the therapist is secretly conspiring against them, jealous of them or just congenitally hates them, as these are typical BPD projections.

    Crucially, they also tend to find any attempt to either engage in introspection themselves, or by someone else doing so for them, as painful as an extreme physical assault. This is not an exaggeration and they have good internal reasons for this, but it means that they will therefore react with some sort of defence: aggression, distortion, deflection, dismissal, projection or just full on disassociation.

  361. A123 says: • Website
    @AP

    Mariupol is now a ruined wreck of little use; if things go very poorly for Russia it may just abandon it.

    Do you have any evidence to support this wild accusation?

    The Fake Stream Media keeps playing pictures from the area around the Azov Steel Works, which is indeed wrecked. However, they are well known liars, not to be believed.

    On the ground — Water, sewer, and electricity services are returning (or already available) in Mariupol away from the Azov battle zone. Children are playing outside. Elements of normal life are returning. The last thing that the Ukrainian Propaganda Corps wants to admit is that Mariupol will be easily and successfully integrated into a new nation.
    ____

    The local population is glad to be free of the horror of neo-Nazi Azov oppression. (1)

    [from March] The Russian army has been fighting the Ukraine military in/around Mariupol while the Azov battalions have kept the citizens captive. However, the Russians are now surrounding the Ukraine military and slowly clearing each of the surrounding villages allowing the formerly captive people to leave or seek safety.

    At least in this part of the conflict, the U.S. and NATO alliance is supporting the brutality against Eastern Ukrainian citizens by supporting the Nazi factions of the Ukraine military. There is a genocide happening in this region, but it is the Ukraine military, the far-right ultranationalists in the Azov battalions and others doing the killing, not the Russians.

    If the residents in Eastern Ukraine do not align with the ultranationalist factions of the Ukraine military and fight the Russians, they are subjected to gross human rights abuses, beatings and threats against their families. Western nations are supporting this activity and deploying extreme propaganda messaging to cover it up.

    Mariupol is permanently lost to Zelensky as Ukraine has no military capability to recapture it.

    — What do the Ukie Maximalists want to crow about?
    — Evidence free claims about Russian Generals?

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/20/the-battle-in-mariupol-is-intense-and-filled-with-western-propaganda-russian-military-fighting-ukrainian-azov-battalions-and-ultranationalists-in-eastern-region/

  362. @AP

    Yet where are they who, the generals? Well I think they might be a little busy.

    Or perhaps they are too stupid to realize how important that is to appear now alive and well in front of a camera, and post it on Twitter.

  363. S says:
    @songbird

    BTW, I was once previously amazed by how young (though not children) some high-ranking officers were in the American Civil War.)

    Such as America’s Varus, George Armstrong Custer (below aged 19), who at 23, and shortly before Gettysburg, would be made a brigadier general. Despite the obvious failure of the Little Big Horn and being last in his class at West Point, in the field he was actually generally quite competent, particularly during the Civil War.

    I think he cited 15 as the maturation point for males. (Maybe, with some maturing a bit earlier?) And I think he said 14 for girls.

    Throughout much of history, that’s about the time many would marry. Even till relatively recently (ie 1960) in the US, many people would have been married by age 20. Since then, mistakenly (imo) letting economics dictate has pushed the marriage age later and later, also (imo) ultimately not to the benefit of men and women. In latter times they had something known as courtship, amongst other means to meet the opposite sex (such as laughing gas parties for young folk in the first half of the 19th century 🙂 ) so it wasn’t necessarilly simply marrying the first one a person came across.

    The frequently-cited immaturity of teenagers at home might really just be a consequence of them being forced into the very unnatural school environment, and made stressful by it.

    Not only does much of modern public schooling seem unnatural, ie ‘babysitting’ to an extent, but some (many?) of the other students are probably not a good influence.

    https://www.ancient-origins.net/history-important-events/laughing-gas-parties-0011605

    • Thanks: songbird
    • Replies: @songbird
    , @Barbarossa
  364. Triteleia Laxa [AKA "Aether"] says:
    @Barbarossa

    AP’s reply captured the point, but I will give a bit more of my reasoning.

    The base motivation for the invasion of Afghanistan, and even Iraq, was an inchoate revenge.

    America was attacked, shocked and traumatised, and so America terrorised the Taliban on the other side of the world for 20 years.

    All of the other motivations offered are mostly just rationalisations made up to justify the unmentionable emotion.

    That doesn’t mean that those motivations were not sincerely offered, they just are not “base.” They also got confused into the mission, leading to confusion in its execution, and ultimately a sense of failure.

    Were America able to be honest about its motivation, to itself, then Iraq could have been avoided and the invasion and occupation of Afghanistan could have been over in 6 months.

    It would have been much better, and both wars were mistakes, but they were born of extreme geopolitical strength, not weakness.

    Like eating gold flakes is born of wealth, even if I find it stupid.

    [MORE]

    Essentially, if you need revenge, just take it. Better than trying to do everything else half-heartedly and failing.

    But such self-honesty is extremely rare.

    Nonetheless, as I said, the two endeavours are obviously a sign of great strength, if not psychological courage.

    Obliterating two states on the other side of the world for relatively few casualties is obviously not something that any other country could do. Russia can’t even take a city on its border, while the US conquered coastless distant Afghanistan in a few weeks.

    Interestingly, Russia also has a base motivation for its war. Indeed, you can see this in Russia’s total inability to put forward a coherent set of aims for the war or consistent justifications.

    The truth is that Russia wanted to heal its collective sense of pride. Russians don’t know why they are completely inferior in power to America, or can’t admit it, and so they oscillate between grandiose megalomaniacal statements, or develop pointless ostentatious technologies like Khinzal, and desperate narratives of pity and victimhood. It is pathetic.

    Most of the time, pride exists as a social phenomena, in that prideful people mostly try to convince others of a powerful image of themselves so that they can receive validation.and convince themselves of its veracity. Why are there “pride parades”, except to gain social validation?

    This is why the very point of Russia’s war was to achieve instant victory and shock the world with their great prowess, and why they really don’t know what they are doing any more. The base line motivation cannot be met.

    As for rationalisations give, Donbas civillians were not in danger and Russian propaganda that shelling increased in February is ridiculous.

    As if the Ukrainians would increase shelling just as Russia’s entire army is parked on its borders with blood banks and all, while not even mobilising their own troops!

    Nor does Russia need the land.

    And Russia might have wanted the civillians, but they are only worth something to Russia if they actually feel loyal to Russia; which they are now proven not to be. Meanwhile, Russia has lost millions of its young and educated to emigrants fleeing their authoritarianism and blood-thirstyness.

    The point about NATO and nukes is even more ridiculous, given the situation of the Baltics on Russia’s border and the fact that NATO quite clearly was never going to invade Russia.

    Russian shills are now reduced to bleating about vague “provocations” and are beneath contempt. Their vagueness is necessitated by the fact that for that argument to work, those “provocations” would have had to remove Russia’s choice and somehow forced it into a disastrous invasion of the sovereign and recognised country on its border. They would have had to be existential.

    They were noy. Instead, Russia chose to invade and it had its base motivation – recover false pride. Just as America chose to invade Iraq and Afghanistan out of vague revenge.

    • Replies: @Johann Ricke
  365. Beckow says:
    @AP

    A123 answered about Mariupol, he is right. Mariupol is a ‘development‘ opportunity – large % of the old is gone or can be bulldozed, but the port and the location to heavy industry and farming is still there. It matters, it makes Donbas a lot more viable.

    Ukraine is a lot more likely to take back Kherson than Russia is to conquer Kiev

    I don’t think either one will happen, Kherson is too strategic for Crimea and Russia has shown no interest in Kiev (or Kharkiv, Dnipro). Maybe they are hiding their designs, but it is likely that they are not interested in occupying hostile areas.

    Your statement that people “hate Russians” in Kherson is unsupported by evidence: only a few hundred have demonstrated and tens of thousands have signed up to work with Russia – maybe out of necessity, but there are clearly both kinds of people living there: pro-Kiev and pro-Russia. Since you and everyone else has no problem with pro-Russians being pushed out to Russia, why should we worry about the pro-Ukies being pushed to the west? Same rules need to apply.

    There are large gas deposits in Galicia…

    No, there are ‘small’ gas deposits there and they are expensive to drill for. Supply chains need good roads – good roads are expensive and will take at least 5-10 years to build. The aid you are counting on would be – as always – mostly military, and mostly “money” to buy stuff from the Western companies at full price that they either can’t sell otherwise, or you don’t need. E.g. MRI machines from 1997 for a cool million euros (we did that, and it actually in retrospect looks not like ‘corruption’ or a mistake, but unavoidable given how the ‘aid’ is structured.)

    You are waiting for Russia to collapse and this is a fool’s errand: you effectively give the decision to your enemy. If they don’t collapse, then what? Is there another route to victory for Kiev? If not, why did they not negotiate a compromise? They will lose a lot more than they would have lost with a pre-war compromise. But you wanted blood to appease gods in the west that you worship…

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Wielgus
    , @Mr. Hack
    , @A123
  366. Mr. Hack says:
    @Here Be Dragon

    The “cameo patterns” are different? The guy at the front of the line has a jacket on. The two guys in back look similarly dressed. Actually, the jacket that the soldier in the mail office is wearing is identical to the ones being worn in the photo that you’ve decided to enclose. Sorry, I think that you’re the one full of BS. 🙂

  367. AP says:
    @Here Be Dragon

    The guys in the mail room look like they are wearing Rosgvardia uniforms. They might be off duty, also. I’m not an expert on Russian military uniforms but it doesn’t take an expert to know that different units would vary or that an off duty soldier might wear camo that isn’t part of a uniform.

  368. Triteleia Laxa [AKA "Aether"] says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Correction: I should have written “more than three times every 24 hours.”

  369. Triteleia Laxa [AKA "Aether"] says:
    @Here Be Dragon

    Sorry, you’re just flat out wrong.

    The range of potential Russian camouflage patterns is dizzying.

    There’s no basic multicam for them.

    https://www.camopedia.org/index.php/Russia

    • Replies: @Here Be Dragon
  370. Mikhail says: • Website

    • Replies: @Matra
  371. AP says:
    @Beckow

    Mariupol is a ‘development‘ opportunity – large % of the old is gone or can be bulldozed, but the port and the location to heavy industry and farming is still there

    The industry there is destroyed also. Whatever Russia retains in Donbas will be completely ruined. Almost not even worth for Ukraine to take back, except as a monument to the courage of it’s defenders. Farming still exists north of there but Russia has a port at nearby Rostov. And good luck developing it while sanctioned and with declining economy and no aid (the opposite of what will be happening with free Ukraine). Maybe hand it over to China de facto?

    I don’t think either one will happen, Kherson is too strategic for Crimea and Russia

    Kherson is a bridgehead in the wrong side of the Dnipro river from other Russian-held territories. Ukrainian troops are already nearby. If Ukraine stops Russia in Donbas the liberation of Kherson would be a logical next step. It might even happen if Donbas goes.

    Your statement that people “hate Russians” in Kherson is unsupported by evidence: only a few hundred have demonstrated and tens of thousands have signed up to work for Russia

    Kherson always voted more pro-Western then Kharkiv and the hundreds (probably over a thousand) protesting in that small city were quite brave. Note that there were zero pro-Russian celebrations and Russia decided not to try a referendum because there was so little support for them that they couldn’t even fake a victory. It’s an occupied city subject to mass arrests and terror.

    Since you and everyone else has no problem with pro-Russians being pushed out to Russia, why should we worry about the pro-Ukies being pushed to the west? Same rules need to apply

    Same rules do not apply because Ukraine was not the invader but the invaded.

    No, there are ‘small’ gas deposits there and they are expensive to drill for

    Galicia has about 15% of Ukraine’s gas reserves which is enough to make western Ukraine self-sufficient in gas. Maybe even a slight exporter. It lacks the really gas-thirsty and inefficient heavy industries in the eastern and southern parts of the country. Volhynia has a nuclear complex and there is another in Podilya so I suspect western Ukraine is energy independent or close to it, if not an exporter.

    good roads are expensive and will take at least 5-10 years to build

    There are already good roads between western Ukraine (and further east to the center) and Poland, post-war reconstruction will expand and improve the network. They have been building the roads for several years now, they contribute to the increase in this flight industry factories in places like Zhytomir.

    You are waiting for Russia to collapse and this is a fool’s errand: you effectively give the decision to your enemy

    Ukraine is actively fighting and killing the Russians. The Russians may or may not collapse eventually (both are real possibilities). If they do then Ukrainians are there to advance, they are not passive.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Sean
    , @Beckow
  372. songbird says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    1. I have mentioned that more than one person contribute to this account on a number of occasions.

    Can you adduce evidence? As you know, self-reports are not considered the gold standard.

    [MORE]

    2. A resistance to introspection, psychoanalysis and other forms of therapy, is characteristic of people with Cluster B personality disorders, especially borderline personality disorder.

    Personally, I’ve always felt there was something one-sided about your inferences. And that you did not invite or accept the analyses of others, but seemed rather closed off to them. (as I recall you were quite resistant to Aaron B’s efforts to interact with you)

    In particular, I felt that there’s been a lack of desire on your part to give background information, such as when you first became interested in psychology, and whether you have taken any classes on it. (Doesn’t a psychologist usually hang up his degrees on the wall?)

    For my part, I am perfectly willing to tell of my modest background with psychology, though it is probably not of interest to anyone:

    When I was about 13, and on vacation, I was once in a used bookstore and I happened to pick up a book by Freud, who had been endlessly popularized in pop culture. For example, in Star Trek TNG. I flipped through it, and was utterly disgusted by it, which has helped make me into something of an anti-Freudian.

    I took a class in high school to get college credit. It was relaxing, and interesting, at times. (first introduced me to g, the Bell Curve and Gould) I don’t regret taking it. But I took another class in college, largely to avoid taking other, more woke electives, and found it boring and a waste of time.

    I believe Zimbardo shared your view that the soul does not exist. I once laughed my head off at some sinister passage he wrote, which included that point, when I encountered it serendipitously in an old book in college, as in my high school class, we joked that he was the Devil, for he had a very sinister appearance, and wore a dark suit. (BTW, I understand that his most famous experiment has been called into question.)

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
  373. Wielgus says:
    @Beckow

    Galicia had some oil drilling going on under the Austro-Hungarian Empire, but it was also one of the poorest parts of the empire. Russian Count Sergei Witte, one of late Tsarism’s most able ministers, opposed Russia going to war in 1914, asking what could be gained. If it was a matter of Galicia, he said, it was full of Jews and not a desirable gain (although Witte was married to a Jewess who had converted to Christianity).

    • Replies: @AP
  374. songbird says:
    @S

    Not only does much of modern public schooling seem unnatural, ie ‘babysitting’ to an extent

    I really got this feeling when I was in school. They literally counted the minutes that you were in there, and were always trying to add more of them. But I guess another way to look at it is that it is a self-justification. The business elite may have wanted to break people’s spirits, but they didn’t want to warehouse people, up to 18 or later. It was the elite connected to the education complex that wanted to do that, to justify more public resources, for themselves.

    [MORE]

    One of the things that really impressed me about Bronski’s talk was how much he thought public school has had a negative influence our ideas about maturity. For example, the idea that these teenage gangbangers can be put away in juvie for a few years, and then let back out on the streets – it’s a direct result of public education.

    Throughout much of history, that’s about the time many would marry.

    This is why I think some of the attacks on AK, and to a certain extent others, are so funny.

    Girls (such as Liv Tyler) often begin modeling at 14. The idea that we can’t in anyway acknowledge who is going to be a pretty women at that age, without being extreme sickos, strikes me as one of the most absurd ideas in all of history.

    I feel like it is very feminist idea. “Don’t look at her, or you are a pedophile. Look at wrinkled, old, barren me.”

    None of that is to say that I think young women should be made to be streetwalkers, or otherwise exploited. IMO, people like Epstein, Ghislaine Maxwell, and the Paki groomers should be severely punished. And we should all endeavor to be more chivalrous. But these are things that should be universal, moral values, regardless of whether someone has reached the age of 18. IMO, it’s a sick delusion to think that it is okay to exploit someone once they turn 18.

    • Agree: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @S
  375. Mr. Hack says:
    @Beckow

    and Russia has shown no interest in Kiev (or Kharkiv, Dnipro). Maybe they are hiding their designs,

    Sorry, but I just couldn’t let this one go (for some reason AP decided to let it go?). But it’s one of the dumbest things that you’ve said in a long time. Really?? 🙂

  376. @Triteleia Laxa

    Of course there is.

    There is a standard camo pattern and uniform. They call it EMR camouflage. They do not use any other patterns, all of those on camopedia are either old or non-military. Here is what they use, all three versions of it – same pattern, different colors.

    For different terrain conditions.

    You an search “Ratnik program” to read more about it.

    And those two other clowns are trolls. They know the clip is bullshit.

  377. @A123

    Richard Nixon was one of the most effective Presidents the US has had in living memory.

    Ended Vietnam
    Completed the moon race
    Passed Medicare
    Passed the Environmental Protection Act
    Came off the gold standard
    Health & Safety initiatives

    By modern standards, say Boris Johnson, his sins were very moderate.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Emil Nikola Richard
  378. Triteleia Laxa [AKA "Aether"] says:
    @songbird

    I believe Zimbardo shared your view that the soul does not exist.

    You’re difficult to engage with at the moment, because you seem to have a very strong image of me, present in you, that does not conform to me at all.

    I most certainly would never argue that the soul does not exist. I am constantly referencing the soul. Indeed, since no one ever really dies, it is the only thing which matters in the long-run.

    I also find that psychology is just the vernacular of spiritual language, and language itself is just broken perception of spiritual truth.

    All this suggests that you are projecting very hard onto me. This means that you are allocating your own qualities, but ones hidden within your unconscious, onto me. Please stop, and integrate your own images into your own sense of self.

    [MORE]

    (as I recall you were quite resistant to Aaron B’s efforts to interact with you)

    Not at all. He just started seeing me with the same projected image that he uses for his mother, so I pointed that out.

    Or he lectured me that I didn’t take his self-contradictory ideology seriously enough. It was that life was best expressed through first-hand experience, but that he knew this from his ideas!

    Anyway, I am generally delighted when people try to provide insight into me, even if I am not surprised by what they offer, and it is actually a great source of pain and loneliness in my life that instead they just see in me only either what they most fear, or most love, about themselves.

    I flipped through it, and was utterly disgusted by it, which has helped make me into something of an anti-Freudian.

    Yes, a strong disgust reflex is often comorbid with a cluster B personality disorder. In particular, revulsion at anything that might push them to try to look into their unconscious, as Freud does.

    I don’t have a disgust reflex, by the way, though this doesn’t mean that I like objectively unhealthy things.

    In particular, I felt that there’s been a lack of desire on your part to give background information, such as when you first became interested in psychology, and whether you have taken any classes on it

    I am rightly concerned to be sharing substantial biographical information. I have shared about as much as I am comfortable with.

    On the other hand, I am completely open to share my personal, psychological and spiritual information. For example, my lack of disgust reflex, or my total comfort with what people call fear. These are highly unusual traits, especially when combined with a developed sense of affective empathy, both internally and externally. Or the fact that it seems quite impossible for me to dissociate, even when I experimented with the drug Bufo Alvarius. A substance which has quite a strong effect on most users, but just made me feel at home.

    This is likely, as also personally suggested by a well-regarded psychologist, because, for whatever reason, there is no barrier between my conscious, my unconscious, and even the unconscious, for me. There is only distance and a sense of limited attention. More akin to not always knowing where to shine my spotlight of perception, than any particular wall or barrier blocking it. This is also extremely unusual, and about as opposite to a Cluster B disorder as it is possible to get.

    Can you adduce evidence? As you know, self-reports are not considered the gold standard.

    Honestly, I spent ages looking and didn’t find it. I definitely wrote it on a number of occasions, but proving it through search is too laborious to be worth it. You can believe whatever you like on this topic. It is of little practical effect to me either way.

    I don’t even understand what the big deal is. A second person may be seen to use an account even just by directly informing the output. Furthermore, this line of discussion originated in my comment that Gonzalo Lira is essentially “crushing for a bruising.” Which I think is inarguable, given that he seems to be squatting in a country under murderous attack, while cheerleading that attack. Nevermind his unpleasant persona, predilection for grooming children, and for faking his own death in order to satisfy his own histrionic tendencies.

    • Replies: @songbird
    , @German_reader
  379. @S

    Some of my ancestors and relatives went to sea at 14, the usual age, as Midshipmen. The army rank was Ensign. Startrek got it wrong, at least in British terms. Perhaps the US used Ensign. They had high standards of maths and English judging by their school exercise books at 9 or 10. Algaebra, geometery and trigonometry that would be advanced for 13 years olds now. Some bookeeping. No calculus though.

    • Thanks: S, Coconuts
    • Replies: @Adept
  380. A123 says: • Website
    @Beckow

    A123 answered about Mariupol, he is right. Mariupol is a ‘development‘ opportunity – large % of the old is gone or can be bulldozed, but the port and the location to heavy industry and farming is still there. It matters, it makes Donbas a lot more viable.

    Only a small % of Mariupol is gone. Most residential and commercial buildings are fine. Obviously, those used by Azov resistance are badly damaged, but that is a limited part of total real estate.

    The Azov Works and some nearby heavy industrial sites will need to be bulldozed and redeveloped. Fortunately, it looks like this has been part of Putin’s plan all along. Taking only what one can afford in reconstruction is wise planning towards Winning The Peace.
    ____

    The big unknown remains the fate of Odessa.

    The Ukrainian military threat to civilians must be dealt with. Firing anti-ship missiles into the Black Sea will eventually sink commercial vessel(s). The Russians can take Odessa militarily, but the subsequent pacification would be difficult & expensive.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  381. The Russian army in Izyum appears to be in danger of being cut off as Ukrainian howitzers come in range of the supply routes. That’s 20,000 or so men. Not only that, Ukraine has a decent chance of gettring to Kupiansk, a river crossing and road junction that controls the supply routes to the rest of the Russian army on the Sevrodonetsk river. Tens of thousands more. For the first time, the initiative has shifted to the Ukrainians. Capturing 40,000 plus Russians would mean that the war would be lost for 4 or 5 years. If Putinism perishes in the 2024 election this would be the end.

    Sanctions of course have yet to bite, although inflation is already 17.3%. So 2024 Russia would be under economic pressure to make concessions (Ukrainian language primary schools where appropriate?) to ease them.

    • Replies: @Sean
    , @Wokechoke
  382. Sean says:
    @AP

    And good luck developing it while sanctioned and with declining economy and no aid (the opposite of what will be happening with free Ukraine).

    You are assuming it ends, but Ukraine is up against a great power that cannot be forced to cry uncle. Russians will control how the war ends for Ukraine. Even in the aftermath of Ukraine driving the Russians out of Donbass. Ukraine will not get anyone to send troops to Ukraine unless there is some kind of cease fire and Russia will surely not give that or come to terms to let Ukraine move on unless the sanctions are lifted. But let us say there is a settlement, Russia is not going anywhere and will be seething; Ukraine will have to spend ruinous sums on arms and maintaining a huge standing army plus extensive conscription, in case Russia is just taking a coffee break while its military is resting and refitting before having another crack. Young Ukrainian men may not want to spend years drafted when they could be working for good money in the West.

  383. A123 says: • Website
    @Philip Owen

    BoJo is difficult to understand. The number of 180°’s is making me dizzy.

    The new round of proposals sound credible as Make England Great Again [MEGA]: (1)

    UK government shocks observers with a host of new genuinely conservative bills

    Boris Johnson appears to budge to voter pressure over his past liberal stances on immigration and freedom of speech

    The proposed Brexit Freedoms Bill 51 will abolish the 1,400 EU laws still actively used in Britain, with Johnson looking to accelerate economic growth by ending inherited EU red-tape.

    These bill proposals, and the government’s imminent introduction of the deportation of channel migrants to Rwandan processing centers, creates the impression that the conservative government of Boris Johnson has finally gotten the message from its core voters. They are not interested in supporting a conservative party that aims to compete with the Labour Party for left-wing voters. The Conservatives are currently some 5 points down against Labour in the polls, but the legislation introduced during the Queen’s Speech is a true testament to Boris Johnson’s exceptional survival instincts.

    If LaFarge was PM, it would be easy to take these Populist initiatives seriously.

    Coming from BoJo….. How many (if any) of these are genuine?

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://rmx.news/uk/the-uk-government-shocks-observers-with-a-host-of-new-genuinely-conservative-bills/

  384. German_reader says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Macron is right, the only hope for meaningful community of European states with at least some weight of its own in international relations is a “Carolingian” model (France, Germany, Benelux, Italy). Obviously there would be huge tensions even in such a union (and yes, Italy’s debt is a nightmare, don’t know if there’s even a realistic solution at this point) and I think it is indeed unlikely to become a reality. But potentially it would have decent economic and military power.
    As for the rest of the EU imo one can just forget about them for any project that would give “Europe” an independent voice in the world. AP is always telling us that Poland and Ukraine (plus maybe the Baltic states) will form a really powerful bloc, and since I’ve seen similar ideas elsewhere on the net this seems to be a real belief among Eastern Europeans. I’m more inclined to view it as an absurd fantasy, and the mis-match between reality and aspirations (plus the endless paranoia from their historical grievances) means these states will always be vectors for American influence. It’s no accident that Poland, Ukraine and the Baltic states all participated in the Iraq war and that the conflict lines within the EU today are pretty much the same as back then. One would think that the Iraq fiasco would have led the Eastern Europeans to be somewhat more cautious, but given their hysterical denunciations of Germany and France, apparently not. It’s the same bs as back then (e.g. see this gem: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_involvement_in_the_2003_invasion_of_Iraq#International_relations , back then there were the same accusations that France and Germany were purely acting out of greed, wanted to sell weapons to Iraq etc.).
    That’s one reason why I’m absolutely opposed to full EU membership for Ukraine. Ukraine should get generous reconstruction aid and some form of economic association, but full political membership, no, absolutely not. Given the appalling behaviour of many representatives of Ukraine (like its “ambassador” to Germany, who clearly thinks he can get away with anything, because he’s popular among German shitlibs, but more importantly probably because of being backed by US power) I don’t want such people to have any influence on the EU. It’s bad enough we’ve got Poland.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @songbird
    , @Thulean Friend
    , @216
  385. @Philip Owen

    Richard Nixon was despised by his classmates at Duke law school because he outworked them all and outperformed them all. On Friday and Saturday night at 9:00 p.m. he was sitting in the library poring over law books. His nickname was cement-ass.

    Now of course Duke law school pretends Richard Nixon never existed. He was a great man that the deep state took out–Watergate was a set up–because he had his own ideas.

  386. Adept says:
    @Philip Owen

    Gene Wolfe wrote a 1973 short story called “Alien Stones” that was inspired by Star Trek, and in turn inspired the first Star Trek movie. At one point, one of the characters, in conversation, discussed the practice of sending young men out to sea as midshipmen. I highlighted the passage, because it’s of tremendous relevance to raising boys in this day and age:

    “They put their future skippers on board warships when they were boys of eight or nine—they were called midshipmen. They were just children, and if they misbehaved they were bent over a gun and whipped, but at the same time they were gentlemen and treated as such. The captain, if he was a good captain, treated them like sons and they got responsibility shoved at them just as fast as they could take it.”

    “It sounds like a brutal system,” Helen Youngmeadow said.

    “Not as brutal as losing ship and crew. And it produced some outstanding leaders. Lord Nelson entered the navy at twelve and was posted captain when he was twenty; John Paul Jones started at the same age and was first mate on a slaver when he was nineteen and a captain at twenty-three.”

    “I’m sorry . . .” The girl’s voice was so faint in Daw’s earphones that he wondered for a moment if her suit mike was failing. “I’ve never heard of either of those men. But I’ll look them up when we get back to Gladiator.”

    “Anyway,” Daw continued, “it was a good system—for as long as people were willing to send promising boys off to sea almost as soon as we’d send them off to school; but after a while you couldn’t count on that anymore. Then they took boys who were almost grown and sent them to special universities first. By the time they were experienced officers they were elderly—and the ships, even though these weren’t starships yet, had become so large that their captains hadn’t had much real contact with them until they were nearly ready to take command of a ship themselves. After a hundred years or so of that—about the time the emphasis shifted from sea to space—people discovered that this system really didn’t work very well. A man who’d spent half his life as a subordinate had been well trained in being a subordinate, but that was all.”

    Emphasis added.

  387. Mr. Hack says:
    @A123

    Only a small % of Mariupol is gone. Most residential and commercial buildings are fine. Obviously, those used by Azov resistance are badly damaged, but that is a limited part of total real estate.

    Must be dumb day at this blogsite. First Beckow with his flippancy and now you. The mayor of Mariupol has stated that at least 80% of the town has been destroyed beyond restoration. The other 20%, is anybody’s guess?

    This aerial view indicates that more than just areas that were once controlled by the Azov battalion have been irretrievable destroyed. Could you point out exactly where the neighborhoods are that are still turnkey inhabitable? Are you ready to move there and join the local country club?

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
  388. @Mikel

    We need a 50 meter race between her and this fellow:

  389. songbird says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I am constantly referencing the soul.

    I’ll concede this, but often today, the word is used outside a religious context.

    [MORE]

    I am rightly concerned to be sharing substantial biographical information.

    In that case, it is not immediately obvious why you would not acknowledge your ethnic biases. Surely, you are not the last of the Mohicans or the last of the Cornish-speakers or true Wends but come from a bigger group?

    BTW, isn’t your fear of doxing a self-contradiction about your “total comfort with what people call fear?” When you said you lacked a disgust reflex, I thought you were saying that you were like Phineas Gage, only that the railroad spike had gone through your amygdala and your insula.

    as Freud does.

    Freud has entered the pop culture through strong ethnic promotion. His celebrity is not a reflection of his worth. His ideas have no validity.

    there is no barrier between my conscious, my unconscious, and even the unconscious, for me.

    By any chance, have you seen that movie Lucy with ScarJo? Not that I am saying watch it, but I feel like you are saying that we only use 10% of our brains, and you are using 100%.

    Nevermind his unpleasant persona, predilection for grooming children,

    I’m not very familiar with his background, but Roko (twitterer) doesn’t seem to like him.

    Honestly, I spent ages looking and didn’t find it.

    Your a prolithic commenter (as I am myself), but I thought you would at least quote a comment with different prose or personality.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
  390. Sean says:
    @Philip Owen

    Capturing 40,000 plus Russians would mean that the war would be lost for 4 or 5 years. If Putinism perishes in the 2024 election this would be the end.

    It would be the end of the begining. Hostilities might run down and formally cease, which is likely going to happen in a few years anyway, but in any case it is extremely difficult to see an end to the threat to Ukraine posed by Russia. I suppose the international forces could move in as Russia retreats as a peacekeeping force but that could easily be presented as an invasion of Russia by the much larger West. Ukraine is going to turn into Prussia: maintained by external subsidy and with a highly militarized national ethos. The alternative is China plays a peacekeeping role (in addition to all the infrastucture rebuilding). Whatever happens, China is the big winner.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  391. Triteleia Laxa [AKA "Aether"] says:
    @Mr. Hack

    Let’s do the Putinist shuffle:

    “That footage is fake, probably made in Hollywood, why would great experts like Scott Ritter ever lie for money and we all know that the US lies about literally everything, but also Russia didn’t do it, and the Ukrainians deserved it and Russia will do it again and will committ carnage on the rest of Ukraine, unless Ukraine let’s Russia do it because not letting Russia invade is the same as provoking Russia and…oh look, the Americans have a male Admiral in a dress.”

    • LOL: utu
    • Replies: @A123
  392. German_reader says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I don’t even understand what the big deal is.

    This a forum where many regular commenters have been around for years, so some consistency is expected, and having several persons write under the same name would be poor form in any case, at least without making it obvious (like having a name like “Hitler and Stalin”, and signing each comment with “Hitler” or “Stalin” respectively).
    But I think you’re making this up anyway, because you got caught in a web of lies. imo other commenters shouldn’t waste any time on your inane psychotwaddle, but of course it’s their choice.

  393. AP says:
    @Wielgus

    Galicia had some oil drilling going on under the Austro-Hungarian Empire, but it was also one of the poorest parts of the empire

    It was tied with Dalmatia as the poorest part of the Austrian part of the empire; as such, it was wealthier than some of the Hungarian-ruled parts and wealthier per capita than Russia itself (and the Balkans, and Portugal). It languished under the Soviets, such that when adjusting for inflation it was actually poorer in the end of Soviet rule and in the 1990s then it had been in the late 19th century.

    In 1914, some Russians didn’t want to annex Galicia because it was anti-Russian and they feared it would infect Russian-ruled Ukraine with its Ukrainian nationalism, leading to a loss of Ukraine. They were a bit too optimistic about central Ukraine.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
  394. songbird says:
    @German_reader

    IMO, Andriy Melnyk should come crawling on his belly, like a snake before Scholz, and he should be made to back out the same way, without getting up, or turning around.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  395. Triteleia Laxa [AKA "Aether"] says:
    @songbird

    In that case, it is not immediately obvious why you would not acknowledge your ethnic biases. Surely, you are not the last of the Mohicans or the last of the Cornish-speakers or true Wends but come from a bigger group?

    I have been very explicit about which ethnic group I am biased towards. Indeed, I have literally written that “I admit that I am highly biased towards white Europeans” on a number of occasions; further adding that I am comfortable in having my preferences, as limited attention also means time-limited love.

    [MORE]

    I’m not very familiar with his background, but Roko (twitterer) doesn’t seem to like him.

    Yes, well then Roko is astute. Gonzalo Lira deserves love as much as any other individual, but he is on the far creepy side of humanity and seems to be at war with his own sense of compassion.

    By any chance, have you seen that movie Lucy with ScarJo? Not that I am saying watch it, but I feel like you are saying that we only use 10% of our brains, and you are using 100%.

    I see myself as categorically different, rather than more. This is the result of a lot of reflection and looking for answers. It does not fit into any psychological or scientific categories either, but it still exists as a fact of my life. What can I do? I didn’t make it happen.

    Freud has entered the pop culture through strong ethnic promotion. His celebrity is not a reflection of his worth. His ideas have no validity.

    In your last comment you admitted that you knew very little of his work. This comment confirms it. Freud is extremely influential because intelligent, introspective people find great value in his work. I am sorry that I can’t help you by opening your mind to this fact. It is very hard to manoeuvre past such defences.

    BTW, isn’t your fear of doxing a self-contradiction about your “total comfort with what people call fear?” When you said you lacked a disgust reflex, I thought you were saying that you were like Phineas Gage, only that the railroad spike had gone through your amygdala and your insula.

    Sensible, practical caution and fear are unrelated. Fear makes you stupid, but avoiding getting doxxed is clever.

    Yes, we could play word games with the definition of “fear”, but I used it first, so please accept my clarification on how I meant it.

    • Replies: @songbird
  396. German_reader says:
    @songbird

    imo the fact that this guy hasn’t been expelled yet (and actually even is almost worshipped by quite a few Germans) just shows what a pathetic and impotent country Germany is. I certainly can’t think of any other “ambassador” (unless you count something like Soviet ambassadors in the old Eastern bloc) who behaves in such a manner.
    Really bizarre that a lot of Eastern Euros go on and on about alleged unbroken Herrenmenschen mentality among Germans. Maybe a case of projection.

    • Agree: Mikhail
    • Replies: @songbird
    , @Wokechoke
  397. Triteleia Laxa [AKA "Aether"] says:
    @German_reader

    But I think you’re making this up anyway, because you got caught in a web of lies.

    You’re not a very intuitive thinker, for exactly the reasons I identified to you previously, but your obnoxiousness motivated me to think of a better way to search for proof, and I found this via DuckDuckGo.

    It is from 11.5 months ago. The question is: will you have the courage to admit that you were wrong, in a plain and non-vindictive manner?

    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/looking-for-love-in-all-the-web-places/#comment-4712895

    • LOL: German_reader
  398. utu says:
    @Beckow

    I always wondered where did “You can’t prove a negative.” come from and what was the purpose of it as a rhetorical tool? And what does it really mean? Negation of negation is not affirmation anymore? Or that absence of anything can’t be proven?

    Anyway, I did some searching and found this essay which I did not read.

    https://departments.bloomu.edu/philosophy/pages/content/hales/articles/proveanegative.html
    It is widely believed that you can’t prove a negative. Some people even think that it is a law of logic—you can’t prove that Santa Claus, unicorns, the Loch Ness Monster, God, pink elephants, WMD in Iraq and Bigfoot don’t exist. This widespread belief is flatly, 100% wrong. In this little essay, I show precisely how one can prove a negative, to the same extent that one can prove anything at all.

    “Why engage in that game?” – This is a very important game for Ron Unz. Russian generals dead-alive status is very important for Ron Unz not that he cares about the generals but he cares about confirming his bias that MSM are not trustworthy. Only Putin could easily prove that the generals are not dead if they indeed are alive, however Ron Unz is not molesting Putin for it and Putin apparently on his own does not want to alleviate Ron Unz’s anguish that Ukrainian claims might be true by not presenting the non-dead generals. What an ingrate that Putting fellow is after all that what Ron Unz is doing for him.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  399. songbird says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I have been very explicit about which ethnic group I am biased towards. Indeed, I have literally written that “I admit that I am highly biased towards white Europeans”

    Not you too?! No such thing as “white Europeans”, as there is no other kind! You can’t launder an invasion, with papers – it is still an illegitimate invasion. They have no right to sovereignty over us, no right to live off us, not right to insult us, by pretending like they are an improvement on the place.

    You are telling me that some Bantu that came to Western Europe saying he is a Ukrainian, is a European, once he has the papers to prove it?

    A Nigerian will never be a European because all the props and handouts of civilization cannot make him one. Unless perhaps, civilization collapses, the rest of us are vaporized, and they spend about 140,000 years sifting about on their own in Europe. But then, they will probably have a new word for the place.

    But more to the point, I don’t think one can disclose one’s biases without disclosing one’s ethnic origin. That was what I was after. There have been guesses but no disclosure, which just leads one to fall back on the guesses.

  400. songbird says:
    @German_reader

    Germany needs to be more imperious – there is no other way around it. It needs to do a 180, and demand vassalage from its rude inferiors. Anyone asking for money, should be in hock to Germany.

    If they come telling you that they want to put up monuments against Germany, tell them they must celebrate Germans. Put up statutes of Bach, Mozart, etc., and name streets after them.

    Tell them that when others insult you, they must immediately jump up and relentlessly bully them, no matter how small the insult.

    IMO, Ukraine should become Germany’s whippingboy, taking the lash for them, and then punching back, with double the force, or shouldn’t get anything at all.

    If the Poles want freebies, tell them to give back Danzig, or enjoy being a Russian vassal. (not that I think there is danger there, but they seem to)

    • Agree: Mikhail
    • Replies: @German_reader
  401. German_reader says:
    @songbird

    IMO, Ukraine should become Germany’s whippingboy

    That’s a bit harsh. Melnyk is an asshole, but Ukrainians (those in Ukraine at least) deserve some respect at least, the men actually fighting are certainly often very brave. Unfortunately proportionately far less of that type in Germany (and that criticism applies to myself).
    Best solution for Melnyk would be to send him to Poland…so he can tell Poles about Stepan Bandera’s heroism 🙂

    • LOL: songbird
    • Replies: @Mikel
  402. Pixo says:
    @AP

    “ At least a couple hundred dead Russian soldiers, probably a few hundred.”

    The drone pics show a busted pontoon bridge and lots of destroyed vehicles, but I didn’t see any bodies.

    Seems more likely that the Russian troops abandoned their position and vehicles once they realized they were trapped on the wrong side of the river.

    It does appear to be the biggest Russian loss on the DNR/LNR front since the war started.

    This is a first-hand account of how the Russians were trapped by a Ukrainian plan. (Nitter is a way to view Twitter without twitter’s tracking.)

    https://nitter.nl/kms_d4k/status/1524506104192974849

    • Replies: @AP
  403. German_reader says:

    I think a few months ago there was some discussion about Herodotus here. I’ve now read his Histories, in English translation, some impressions below.

    [MORE]

    Would recommend on the whole, though I didn’t like most of the ethnographic digressions. Some were interesting (liked the one about Scythians, seemed mostly credible, and the report about the difficulties the Persians had with those nomadic enemies was pretty gripping and with a lot of insight about the contrasts between settled societies and nomads), but there are just too many bizarre stories for my taste. And the parts about animals…giant ants in Bactria digging up gold dust? Flying snakes in Arabia who could take over the whole world if they weren’t somehow checked in Egypt? Is that all some sort of joke or did Herodotus really expect his readers/listeners to believe those weird tales?
    Book 2 which was a long digression about Egypt was pretty boring imo, can be skipped if one finds it too tedious. The later books dealing with the conflict between Greeks and Persians were fairly enjoyable throughout.
    One thing I found really striking was how much importance Herodotus placed on omens and oracles, he clearly believed in them (though he also mentions several instances of the Delphic oracle being manipulated through bribery for political purposes). From what I recall Thucydides, writing a few decades later, was much more rationalist and quite scornful of oracle-mongers in the context of the failed Sicilian expedition.

    Also read Xenophon’s Anabasis in English translation. Interesting, but also somewhat disconcerting from my perspective, clearly a book by someone who enjoyed war…when I read his descriptions about how the Greek mercenaries plundered villages for supplies or caught slaves I couldn’t help but wonder how it looked from the other side. Also a really striking emphasis on sacrifices, almost like no decision could be taken without making a sacrifice and inspecting entrails for divine advice.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @songbird
  404. Wokechoke says:
    @German_reader

    Melnyk. Amazed he’s not been expelled. Ukies are much like the Chosenites now.

    • Agree: Mikhail
  405. Mikel says:
    @German_reader

    That’s a bit harsh. Melnyk is an asshole, but Ukrainians (those in Ukraine at least) deserve some respect at least, the men actually fighting are certainly often very brave.

    Agree. But it doesn’t seem to me that this Melnyk guy is so exceptional. Everybody in Kiev seems to share his huge entitlement mindset. This idea of forcing your way into the EU through armed struggle is quite nutty. It would be unfair to the members and candidates that followed the established rules and it might encourage others to find similar shortcuts. I don’t understand why some EU leaders are playing along with this comedy.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Triteleia Laxa
  406. Wokechoke says:
    @Philip Owen

    I see what you are doing here.

    During ww2 Izyum became a death trap for Popov against Manstein in the Third Battle.

    The trouble is the Russians are not facing the Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe. They are just facing the SS.

    How are the Russians in quite same position as the USSR in early 1943? If so how is that bad given what happened at Kursk in Summer? They already hold Belgorod, Mariupol, Donetsk, Kherson…so the idea of a mega surround in Izyum is a little far fetched.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  407. @Mikel

    Though tbh I don’t know about the 10% but she must be thereabouts. At 5% bodybuilders look much more ripped, I think.

    Bodyfat % is at the crux of my point. Females can’t attain as low bodyfat as males. 15% is about as low as they can get without running into serious health issues; for males, this figure is 5%. So the idea of a female of that bodyweight at a real 10% – not some vague, off the top one’s head estimate which could range from 15 to 25% – should be ruled out a priori.

    This, of course, applies to females of any bodyweight, but the reason I included a female at 22o in my dismissal is that, not only can’t females reach as low bodyfat, they can’t attain anywhere near as much muscle mass as males. Male bodybuilders even on a ton of PEDs still lose considerable muscle mass as they cut down to 5% bodyfat, which makes the idea of a female retaining so much muscle that she could still weigh 220 while reaching an impossibly low bodyfat % even more ridiculous.

    Putting aside the specific claim of [email protected]%, even if the claim was of more realistic (ie actually attainable) but still freakish proportions, the comment would introduce that woman as an elite bodybuilder, not as a “former military officer” (who just happened to reach female elite bodybuilding status as side gig lol).

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    , @Mikel
  408. AP says:
    @German_reader

    One thing I found really striking was how much importance Herodotus placed on omens and oracles, he clearly believed in them (though he also mentions several instances of the Delphic oracle being manipulated through bribery for political purposes).

    Interesting, but also somewhat disconcerting from my perspective, clearly a book by someone who enjoyed war…when I read his descriptions about how the Greek mercenaries plundered villages for supplies or caught slaves I couldn’t help but wonder how it looked from the other side. Also a really striking emphasis on sacrifices, almost like no decision could be taken without making a sacrifice and inspecting entrails for divine advice.

    Such details that reveal the way of thinking of people from the authors’ culture aresome of the most interesting things about these old texts.

    • Agree: German_reader
  409. AP says:
    @Pixo

    The author claimed a lot of Russian soldiers killed. I can’t imagine it wouldn’t be the case, if a lot of vehicles were destroyed at the same time that the bridge was destroyed. The corpses of the soldiers inside the vehicles wouldn’t be visible and in this war it seems that Russia doesn’t have a lot of infantry support for its vehicles.

  410. Beckow says:
    @utu

    Since you pretend to be too dense to understand a simple point about proving a negative, let’s try an example:

    A news agency known for not liking ‘utu’ says that he engages in serial indecent acts with goats. Other news agencies – that also dislike ‘utu’ and his kind – repeat the ‘utu and goats‘ story. It is everywhere, but it is just an unproven story: no pictures, no testimonies. Those who dislike ‘utu’ say they believe it, others are skeptical.

    Can ‘utu’ ever prove that it is not true? Would people who dislike him believe his denials? Would pictures where ‘utu’ stands with no goats around be accepted? Or would the story-believers say that the pictures are old, doctored, or taken from angles not representative of real ‘utu’?

    That’s why you can’t prove a negative. Simple.

    confirming his bias that MSM are not trustworthy

    It is not a bias, it is a rational observation of what MSM has produced over the last 10-15 years. If you find that is wrong and believe MSM is true and balanced, maybe this forum is not to your liking. We are generally more skeptical here.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
  411. AP says:
    @Mikel

    Everybody in Kiev seems to share his huge entitlement mindset.

    Why wouldn’t or shouldn’t they? They are basically fighting alone against what had been considered the world’s second or third most powerful military. Poles discussing World War II are often similar, as are Brits when describing their lone stand against Germany between the fall of France and Barbarossa (yes, I know both Ukraine now and Britain then are/were receiving massive military aid).

    This idea of forcing your way into the EU through armed struggle is quite nutty

    Ukrainians are paying through blood and treasure to avoid Moscow’s clutches and to be with Europe. It was precisely because Ukraine chose the West over Moscow that it was attacked and invaded. It’s not “nutty” to recognize and reward this sacrifice.

    It would be unfair to the members and candidates that followed the established rules

    Well, those other ones did not sacrifice as much.

    I don’t understand why some EU leaders are playing along with this comedy.

    Decency?

    • Replies: @German_reader
    , @Mikel
  412. Triteleia Laxa [AKA "Aether"] says:
    @silviosilver

    Seriously, I am worried that you are retarded, even if your appearance of retardation is only a function of the confusing situation. Please see my other recent posts.

    It is not that hard for a 6 foot 6 man to be 100 kgs and 10% body fat, especially since the bioelectrical impedance machine probably means that they are actually 14% as they are a little less in shape than usual, and that machine is infamously parsimonious.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
  413. Triteleia Laxa [AKA "Aether"] says:
    @Mikel

    Does anyone doubt that, if there was an EU-wide referendum, Ukraine would be easily voted into membership?

    This isn’t the way it works, but it would doubtless be the case.

    The idea that Poland would form a union with Ukraine was a bit mad and out of the box, but hardly received with horror.

  414. German_reader says:
    @AP

    They are basically fighting alone

    They aren’t fighting alone, they get massive support on a scale probably unprecedented since WW2.

    Ukrainians are paying through blood and treasure to avoid Moscow’s clutches and to be with Europe.

    That’s merely acting in their own interest. One can certainly respect or even admire the determination and courage with good reason (just like much of Europe once admired the Greeks in their independence struggle against the Ottomans), but it’s not an altruistic effort on behalf of the rest of Europe, and pretending otherwise is just a propaganda narrative. I also don’t buy for a minute that most Ukrainians are fighting for “European values” (which may be to their credit, given how rotten many of those values are). A guy like Melnyk may know how to play the Nazi card against Germans, but he’s also clearly a rabid nationalist who has literally called a violent ethnic chauvinist like Stepan Bandera a hero. Such sentiments are hardly compatible with what the EU project was supposed to be about.
    As long as the war is going on, these contradictions probably don’t matter that much, but imo at some point the current love affair between Western progressives and Ukraine might well turn sour.

    • Agree: sher singh
  415. @Matra

    Quite true, but utu has never struck me as a diaspora nationalist type. The vast majority of his posts – until the Russian invasion – had nothing to do with the typical obsessions of diaspora nationalists.

    And unlike Hack and AP, for whom everything is muh Ukraine 24/7 (even before the war), and who are perfectly happy to give America away to whatever riffraff washes up on its shores, he seemed to both know and care a good deal about his host country.

    • Replies: @Matra
  416. Matra says:
    @Mikhail

    So, is would-be Truth Minister Nina Jankowicz a Polish Jew or a Polish Catholic? Last I looked, her early life history is not clear. I suppose given the convergence between Jewish & Polish interests, with the latter fellating the former due to their quivering fear of Russia, it probably doesn’t matter that much, but I’d still like to know.

    • Replies: @songbird
    , @AP
  417. songbird says:
    @German_reader

    Flying snakes in Arabia who could take over the whole world if they weren’t somehow checked in Egypt?

    Maybe, it was true. And the one side of Yahya’s family was sending them out, and the other side intercepting them with those ibises.

    [MORE]

    Is that all some sort of joke or did Herodotus really expect his readers/listeners to believe those weird tales?

    I think everyone likes a little appeal to the imagination. Marco Polo knew it – the children used to follow him saying “Tell us another lie!” And I think Caesar knew it with his German elks that have no knees but need to sleep leaning against trees.

    I assume he was just listening for good stories. Maybe, that is what they told the tourists back then.

    I actually know someone like that who always tells me he sees these strange animals, coming out of the woods, and I appreciate it and have fun with it, and it has even caused me to tell a few jokes of my own, in that area.

    That’s how tall tales used to work: someone would tell a far-fetched story that “happened” to them, and they might include another person in it, and get them to swear every word of it is true. It is part of the fun. I consider Herodotus to be a variant of this. I don’t think he was really that gullible.

    IMO, what makes it fun because you never know which story is true. Some fantastical stories, like the Phoenician circumnavigation of Africa could be true. Some plain ones might be wrong.

    Anyway, I’m surprised you did not mention Pelusium and the Persians throwing cats at Egyptians, which is one of my favorite stories of all time.

    Also read Xenophon’s Anabasis in English translation.

    Afraid I only ever read an edited version. I thought it was a very interesting story though, and appreciated the small details. Doesn’t Sophacles tell him to consult the oracle at Delphi before setting off? And I think there was a part about them burning their wicker shields, and another about the barbarians throwing rocks down on them. Did he mention some abandoned city that had 100 foot tall walls, or was that Polo? Afraid my memory is a bit foggy about it, as I read it years and years ago.

    I think it might be my favorite story out of ancient history, discounting myths. First surviving, firsthand narrative of a war, or so I think.

  418. German_reader says:
    @songbird

    Some fantastical stories, like the Phoenician circumnavigation of Africa could be true.

    [MORE]

    Yeah, but Herodotus actually didn’t believe that one.
    There was also some really strange speculation about celestial phenomena, where Herodotus seems to believe the sun can be moved around by winds (though I suppose one shouldn’t be too arrogant about the ignorance of the ancients, my own knowledge of the natural world is rather limited).

    Anyway, I’m surprised you did not mention Pelusium and the Persians throwing cats at Egyptians, which is one of my favorite stories of all time.

    Afraid I have forgotten that one, would need to look again.

    Doesn’t Sophacles tell him to consult the oracle at Delphi before setting off?

    Socrates. Apparently Xenophon was one of his students (he was also later banished from Athens for his pro-Spartan and anti-democratic leanings, which probably was somewhat typical of Socrates’s circle).

    about the barbarians throwing rocks down on them.

    Some people think those were the ancestors of Kurds. Seems to fit (unpleasant, clannish mountain people regarding outsiders as prey).

    Did he mention some abandoned city that had 100 foot tall walls

    Yes, iirc some Assyrian city.

    • Replies: @songbird
  419. songbird says:
    @German_reader

    Sophacles

    humorous typo on my part.

    Herodotus seems to believe the sun can be moved around by winds

    Solar refraction. He couldn’t understand it, but it does happen, and I think it touches on the Phoenician claims.

    • Thanks: German_reader
  420. Mikel says:
    @AP

    Well, those other ones did not sacrifice as much.

    Neither has Ukraine sacrificed as much as Syria or Yemen so far. Should the EU grant them membership too?

    The European Union is an economic and political union where candidates become members after following an established process to reform their economies and political systems to be in line with those of the current members. It has never had anything to do with military merits or even humanitarian considerations. On the contrary, all candidates and even some members have had to meet sometimes very painful economic convergence measures.

    In fact, everybody outside of Kiev knows that Ukraine is not going to join the EU because of the current war. Macron and others have already had to explain it. Some EU leaders have not been able to say no to Kiev’s demand, given the circumstances, and have even engaged in gestures of going along with the farce but it’s just not going to happen any time soon. As Macron said, a couple of decades maybe, which predictably provoked anger and insults in Kiev.

    • Agree: German_reader
    • Replies: @AP
  421. Rouble stronk!

    New car sales in Russia sank by over 78% in April, industry data showed Wednesday after the country was hit by a barrage of sanctions over Moscow’s military campaign in Ukraine.

    Only 32,706 units were sold in April, according to the Association of European Businesses.

    This was down 78.5% from the same month in 2021 and followed a 60% drop in March.

    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/11/russia-car-sales-sink-78-percent-in-april-a77639

  422. Matra says:
    @silviosilver

    I’m not an every day commenter here so I can’t know for sure.

    BTW silviosilver, I was checking the blog of an old acquaintance – JW Holliday/Michael Rienzi/Ted Sallis etc – when I noticed you (“Silver”) have your own Tag/Label (or whatever the term is) that can be clicked on to see every reference to you – all of them negative! Given that it must be at least 12 yrs since we were all on MR you must have left a memorable impression on him.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
  423. @German_reader

    and having several persons write under the same name would be poor form in any case, at least without making it obvious (like having a name like “Hitler and Stalin”, and signing each comment with “Hitler” or “Stalin” respectively).

    It’s not just poor form, it’s straight up weird. You occasionally see this sort of thing being done here and there, but even when it’s made clear that it’s two people sharing the same account, my immediate assumption is that this person/these people are not playing with a full deck and I completely lose interest in anything they have to say (unless it was very clear they had a high degree of expertise in any area that was of interest to me, which I can’t recall ever having been the case). One person, one account; two people, two accounts. It can’t get any simpler than that, so if someone can’t even get that right, imo the odds that they have anything worthwhile to share plummet drastically.

    To liken it to the political right-o-sphere, it’s like a speaker showing up at a conference sporting a baldie and a goatee, wearing a red suit and black shirt, and talking about some esoteric topic, forget it, he is immediately classified as weirdo/lunatic in my mind, and idgaf in the slightest about anything he has to say, and my opinion of the conference organizers themselves is accordingly adjusted downwards. (Sadly, this is quite common. The only sphere of the “far right” in which membership seems mostly sane is the anti-anti-white/immigration restriction wing. As soon as you move beyond that to pro-white/racial nationalism, the weirdo factor multiplies a hundredfold.)

  424. songbird says:
    @Matra

    Have you ever seen that Orthodox priest guy who was a convert from Judaism? Don’t know if he is officially recognized – and I forget his name. (He criticizes Jews) But, IMO, he moves in a really weird way, (kind of theatrical) and maybe talks in a weird way, which I could never see a normal Orthodox Christian doing in a million years. I honestly find it hard to watch.

    [MORE]

    I’m not hinting that it is a common trait among Jews (I certainly have never observed it IRL), but I suspect that it is related to brain mutations more common in Jews.

    Too excitatory in certain pathways. Not enough inhibition. Maybe, it comes with some benefits, but I believe it has strange side effects also.

    But anyway, Jankowicz moves like that. Her sister (or so I presume) is very dark, (almost like a Gypsy) as well. I never knew that many Poles, but the ones I knew looked like super Aryans (blond and blue eyes). Amusingly, one of the Aryan Poles had a very superior intellect too, easily 1:200 or higher.

    And she did reveal it on twitter once, I believe.

    • Agree: Matra
    • Replies: @songbird
    , @AP
  425. Wokechoke says:
    @silviosilver

    Laxa is some kinda jewess. The act reminds me of several SocMed commissars over the last couple of decades.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
  426. Mikel says:
    @silviosilver

    Females can’t attain as low bodyfat as males. 15% is about as low as they can get without running into serious health issues; for males, this figure is 5%.

    Clarence Bass has spent most of his adult life at around 3% body fat and at 84 he is still at 6% and seemingly very healthy: https://www.cbass.com/

    So those figures may not be an ironclad rule and Laxa being at 10% is not technically impossible. Just unlikely in the extreme, like the claim of sharing her handles with a non-imaginary companion.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
  427. @Triteleia Laxa

    It is not that hard for a 6 foot 6 man to be 100 kgs and 10% body fat, especially since the bioelectrical impedance machine probably means that they are actually 14% as they are a little less in shape than usual, and that machine is infamously parsimonious.

    Could you point out where I ever suggested otherwise?

    I am seriously worried that you could be retarded, even if this is only apparent retardation, resulting from the “confusing situation” (ie your web of lies).

    No, scratch that – I am seriously convinced you are.

  428. songbird says:
    @songbird

    Brother Nathanael. He’s on Bitchute.

    I think Jankowicz is easily worse.

  429. @songbird

    Afraid I only ever read an edited version. I thought it was a very interesting story though, and appreciated the small details.

    You ever see the 1979 film version?

    • Replies: @songbird
  430. AP says:
    @songbird

    According to Ukrainian Wikipedia, she was born in Lviv when it was part of the USSR but left for the USA with her parents soon afterwards. Many Jews such as the Russian politician Yavlinsky also left Lviv at that time so she is likely Jewish; also ethnic Ukrainians haven’t claimed her as one of their own which they would have done. She was in a Polish choir or something as a youth, and in university spent a semester in St. Petersburg Russia. So she is probably Jewish but may be Polish.

    • Thanks: songbird
  431. songbird says:
    @silviosilver

    LOL, yes. In fact, I once suggested here that they remake it, setting it in some famous European city like Paris, and turning all the gangs into ethnic gangs of non-Euros.

    I had the idea that the protagonists wouldn’t be Euros either, but some group near enough to generate sympathy, like Turks or Chechens (even though Chechens are largely unsympathetic).

  432. AP says:
    @Matra

    Poland, the Baltics and other Eastern European countries are supposed to be the butthurt belt but what does that make you, who are clearly butthurt by Poles and other Eastern Europeans who have improved the sorry state of Anglo Canada? Double butthurt?

    • Replies: @Matra
    , @songbird
    , @silviosilver
  433. Triteleia Laxa [AKA "Aether"] says:
    @Wokechoke

    Anyone who is not some kind of incel NEET ASPD freak is some “kind of Jew” to you. Fortunately, you don’t have to remain as you are, you can actually work on yourself. Hit me up for advice, any time you like.

  434. @Mikel

    Clarence Bass has spent most of his adult life at around 3% body fat and at 84 he is still at 6% and seemingly very healthy

    There’s really no way to know for sure if he was ever that low. Even the most accurate methods of estimating bodyfat are routinely off by +/- 2%. Although if I saw like ten DEXA scans in a row, the average of which was X%, I’d believe it is the true figure. Of course, nobody ever does this; they can get one scan which gives a satisfyingly low reading and then wave it around for years as though it were the last word.

    The medical field supposedly has it that 3% is necessary for life, so the idea that someone spent most of his life virtually at death’s door seems dubious, but there are always some freaks of nature, so I couldn’t rule it out. For the vastest majority of people – and I’m basing this on two decades experience in gyms around gym rats (and online) – staying under 10% year round (without PEDs) is not doable, because the psychological stress of low energy and recurring hunger pangs eventually do you in.

  435. Matra says:
    @AP

    Right. Anglo countries were backwards shitholes until Eastern Europeans showed up. Ditto Germany & Scandinavia. Those Eastern Euros felt sorry for us so they came to make our countries great, sacrificing their own thriving lands (lol) in the process. Thank you very much!

    • Replies: @AP
  436. @Emil Nikola Richard

    Oh boy, so you’re telling me that 70 pages into this tome I’ve already hit the best part?
    So far it’s been interesting enough for me to stick with it so I’ll see how it continues.

    So why does not want to scan the brains of his son’s girlfriends? I would think that males would generally be a bit simpler to figure while females would be more prone to mental oddities. Is it just paternal protectiveness on his part?

  437. songbird says:
    @AP

    I thought that when they showed up, they helped promote multiculturalism?

    But maybe it wasn’t important and the elites had already decided.

    • Replies: @AP
  438. AP says:
    @songbird

    FOBs weren’t going to change the country’s stance on multiculturalism lol.

    • Replies: @songbird
  439. @songbird

    I was home-schooled the entire way through and are doing the same with our kids. My oldest is 14 at this point so we have pretty good impressions both from my own experiences as a child and as an adult being around home-schooled children.

    My experience has definitely been that home schooled kids are almost always more mature than public schooled children. Being locked in one’s peer group is really a very unnatural state. As a child I was very comfortable with the company of people both younger and older than myself as well as my peers. I always liked hanging around the adults and listening to their conversations. I’ve noticed the same with my own kids and many of the other families we know.

    Being home-schooled my kids all help around the house and with their younger siblings. My 14 year old can run the house if necessary, changing diapers, cooking a real dinner, etc. It’s nice to be able to go on a diner date with my wife and have things in capable hands. Even the 5 year old has some responsibility (though sometimes grudgingly!) of keeping the 2 year old happily occupied while school is happening for the older kids.

    Generally kids love to help and want to learn things if the desire isn’t discouraged at an early age. Properly developed and shielded from the mind melting crap that exists as kid’s entertainment, they are capable of a lot more than most people give them credit for.

    • Replies: @songbird
  440. songbird says:
    @AP

    Fractional Orbital Bombardment Systems?

  441. Wonder if anybody has done scientific studies whether the ratio 1:10 is still valid concerning detected/confirmed and overall coronavirus cases? If it still holds, with current official 519 million cases, it means over 5 billion people already had been infected over the several years and out of remaining 3 billion uninfected, 1,4 billion must be Chinese, if CCP official numbers are regarded as believable.

  442. A123 says: • Website
    @Triteleia Laxa

    That footage is fake, probably made in Hollywood,

    Hollywood has low standards. CNN is worse. The Fake Stream Media has been caught framing pictures to portray the exact opposite of actual conditions:

     

     

    Mariupol is another round of SJW Lügenpresse propaganda:

    — Are there locations in Mariupol that have been blown to bits? Yes.
    — Is the city as a whole reduced to total ruin? No.

    I am not advertising Mariupol as a tourist destination. Life there is still far from idyllic. However, the Azov terrorists have been eliminated and essential services are be restored. Mariupol is already more livable than Beirut, and it is on an path towards recovery.

    PEACE 😇

  443. @Matra

    Given that it must be at least 12 yrs since we were all on MR you must have left a memorable impression on him.

    Ah the memories. What a baptism of fire MR was for me.

    I think the last time I commented there was 2012. The place had been going steadily downhill for a year or so before that, and then GW, inexplicably, finished it off by handing over the reins to that kook DanielS.

    As for Rienzi, he sure knows how to hold a grudge, lol. I wouldn’t mind if his criticism was actually substantial, but he just rehashes the same old thing. To this day thinks dredging up some anti-WN comment of mine from 2007 is some coup de grace. Apparently, he finds it inconceivable that someone could change his mind about race (even though the aim of his own activism is precisely to bring about such a change). If they were still around, I think even the most dyspeptic among my other opponents (Fred Scrooby, Desmond Jones) would by now allow that I qualify as an ally of their cause. (I wonder if Rienzi’s aware of my posting activity on this site? He certainly knows of the site, but I’m not sure he reads anything here – the fact it’s run by “the Jew Ron Unz” is probably too much for him.)

    Curiously, Sallis/Rienzi’s own position today seems scarcely different to my own back then – that WN is an overwhelmingly nordicist movement and that southern Europeans should, at the least, be very wary of involving themselves in it.

    The main difference between us is that I think WN should be supported anyway (for racially selfish motives, since if WNs can get the the racial undesirables out of their own lives, we’ll have the opportunity to do the same), whereas he thinks WN needs to be destroyed and remade into a pan-European movement. I don’t necessarily object to that plan, I just think it’ll never get off the ground. In any pan-European setting, one look around the room and half the people there would immediately conclude that if that’s what they’re fighting to preserve, the struggle is already lost. Racial politics has its own logic and that is just the nature of the beast.

    • Thanks: sher singh
    • Replies: @Matra
  444. @S

    I go into the local public school from time to time to do guest mentoring with the shop class and as someone who was home-schooled the whole way through the entire structure seems incredibly strange. The bells, the shuffling from class to class, the peer group isolationism, all of it just seems so bizarre to me.

    As songbird touches on in his reply to you, public schooling also has so much wasted time baked into it. I was done by noon most days if I applied myself and I was out building dams, reading, or making some crazy project like a chain mail shirt the rest of the day. And I had a better education than most of my peers that I knew, so quantity did not seemingly indicate quality in public education.

    • Thanks: S
  445. AP says:
    @Matra

    Anglo Canada was a backwards cultural desert until the Eastern Europeans (and Italians and Portuguese) showed up (okay, they had nice gardens). Remember the pre-1950’s joke about winning a vacation to Toronto? 1st place was a weekend, second was a week and third place two weeks in Toronto.

    In England, the Eastern Europeans save it from the non-Europeans that the native English have allowed in.

    • LOL: silviosilver, sher singh
    • Replies: @sher singh
  446. songbird says:
    @Barbarossa

    My experience has definitely been that home schooled kids are almost always more mature than public schooled children.

    Only grew up with one fellow who had been partially homeschooled.

    Looking back on it, he seemed supremely confident. Don’t know how much was nature and how much nurture. Definitely more of a libertarian bent. I suspect that if he were Chinese, the emperor would have chopped off his head, for sticking out to much.

    He definitely wasn’t conformative. On rare occasion, he would wear a kilt. And people would say it was a dress, which I thought was really funny, because a kilt is a nationalist symbol, and the guys who actually wear dresses aren’t nationalists.

    Likeable fellow, if a bit unusual. One thing that really stands out in my mind, is we had an assembly once, where the principal said that there would be police dogs sniffing lockers, and he started to read the state laws to the principal and people cheered him. He was basically the only one in a crowd of near a 1000 who made a peep about rights.
    ___
    BTW, I once knew a woman who had driven her drunken uncle around when she was like 12 or 13. I guess they used to look the other way about that sort of thing.

    The book had a section about driving. Apparently, younger people (16,17) don’t crash more, except as a measure of experience. Maybe, less, because of better reflexes.

    • Thanks: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    , @Wielgus
  447. @AP

    Despite his “America was always meant for everyone” claptrap (a very old game), AP is obviously a ‘racist.’ Why else does he make it a point to describe how refreshingly free of negroids and muslims the areas of Poland and Ukraine he visited were? Unfortunately for him, he’s enough of a self-deluding nitwit to believe that is the result of prudent policy rather than the more pedestrian reality that those places have (in the case of the former, at least until recently) been too poor to attract the negroid hordes. Should that ever change, then nothing short of an explicit avowal that they’re not wanted and not welcome will prevent them from flooding in.

    • Replies: @sher singh
    , @Coconuts
    , @AP
  448. A123 says: • Website

    I should have time to create a 😁Humor😂 round up this weekend.

    Until then, I hope this tides you over.

    PEACE 😇

     
     

    • Replies: @Mikhail
  449. @songbird

    When I was a kid (early to mid 90’s) home-schooling was still a tad unusual. I get the impression you are a fair bit older than myself so it may have been very fringe then.

    Personally, I ended up not caring much about fitting in since I never had to go through the peer pressure meat grinder.

    And the schools are so much worse now than when I was a kid that I can’t imagine having to send my kids there.

    • Replies: @songbird
  450. AP says:
    @Mikel

    Neither has Ukraine sacrificed as much as Syria or Yemen so far. Should the EU grant them membership too?

    Neither Yemen nor Syria sacrificed for the West and Democracy.

    The European Union is an economic and political union where candidates become members after following an established process to reform their economies and political systems to be in line with those of the current members.

    Indeed. In Ukraine this process began in earnest in 2014 and will hopefully continue. But the war and sacrifices should speed up recognition of Ukraine’s efforts.

    @German_reader:

    “They are basically fighting alone”

    They aren’t fighting alone, they get massive support on a scale probably unprecedented since WW2.

    As did Britain when it fought alone after the fall of France.

    “Ukrainians are paying through blood and treasure to avoid Moscow’s clutches and to be with Europe.”

    That’s merely acting in their own interest. One can certainly respect or even admire the determination and courage with good reason (just like much of Europe once admired the Greeks in their independence struggle against the Ottomans), but it’s not an altruistic effort on behalf of the rest of Europe,

    The two are not mutually exclusive. I will note that the Russians were (incoreectly) insisting that it was in Ukraine’s best interests to join Russia rather than Europe so by their logic Ukraine’s sacrifices for the sake of the West are altruistic.

    I also don’t buy for a minute that most Ukrainians are fighting for “European values” (which may be to their credit, given how rotten many of those values are).

    They may not be fighting for the values of extremist “Woke” Europe but they are quite sincerely fighting for the sake of having a democratic rather than despotic government; that is a European Western value.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
    , @Mikel
  451. AP says:
    @Ron Unz

    You had earlier stated, based on Russian or pro-Russian sources, that Ukraine had lost operational ability and was no longer able to field more than individual tanks. Well, here Ukraine is fielding several tanks in operations:

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @Sean
  452. Sean says:
    @Sean

    The EC deal in 2014 was an either/or one. The EC made clear Ukraine had to choose between links to Russia or the EC. In response Putin offered a 15 billion bail out and a 20% reduction on the market price of gas to Ukraine. For preferring this rather good deal to the EC’s one the ethnic Russian elected president of Ukraine was overthown.

  453. AP says:
    @Ron Unz

    You had earlier stated, based on Russian or pro-Russian sources, that Ukraine had lost operational ability and was no longer able to field more than individual tanks. Well, here Ukraine is fielding several tanks in operations:

    [MORE]

  454. Sean says:
    @AP

    According to Jeremy Black’s 2004 book tank were as seen as obsolescent even by the time of Western wars against Saddam in which they apparently played such a big role. Artillery has been what dominated the battlefield in reality in wars of yesteryear (did all the killing certainly) and the main significance of drones is as eyes for pinpoint (often laser guided) artillery. In Ukraine’s supposed open country ideal for tanks their tracks leave a trail like an elephant in six feet of snow, making them simple to locate by drones and destroy from several kilometers away. Tanks are being used to occupy the territory that the Western artillery is winning for Ukraine by outraging the guns of the Russians, who are helpless.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  455. @AP

    Neither Yemen nor Syria sacrificed for the West and Democracy.

    Lol, this guy can lay it on thick with the shamelessness of a neocon Jew.

    They may not be fighting for the values of extremist “Woke” Europe but they are quite sincerely fighting for the sake of having a democratic rather than despotic government; that is a European Western value.

    AP would evidently like to reserve the right to be as contemptuous of western Europe and the Anglosphere as he pleases – “eastern Europeans are righting the mess that the English made of their country” “Canada was a cultural wasteland until my people showed up” – while the same time insisting that they simply must come rushing to his people’s aid.

    Worth a try, I suppose. I mean, you couldn’t ask for a cuckier target audience.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @songbird
  456. Mikhail says: • Website
    @A123

    Orange tabbies have a rep of being generally among the more outgoing of cats.

    • Replies: @songbird
  457. Wielgus says:
    @Beckow

    About 13 years ago I went to a presentation at the Venezuelan embassy. They described the media campaign against Chavez in particular (still alive at the time), in which opposition forces cooked up something and the US media spread it further. One exhibit was Chavez at a rally apparently waving an automatic pistol. The embassy showed that in the original photo his hand was empty – an opposition source then photo-shopped a pistol into his hand, presumably to make him look like an aggressive lunatic.
    We have seen the technique many times since.

  458. Mikhail says: • Website

    Concerns how a settlement can change over time:

    https://www.rt.com/russia/555392-ukraine-eu-position-nato/

    Russia has about the middle of July to show definite concrete gains from the present in Donbass – if not completely having it all. Should that not be achieved, there will be a definite increased second guessing.

  459. @German_reader

    Macron is right, the only hope for meaningful community of European states with at least some weight of its own in international relations is a “Carolingian” model (France, Germany, Benelux, Italy). Obviously there would be huge tensions even in such a union (and yes, Italy’s debt is a nightmare, don’t know if there’s even a realistic solution at this point) and I think it is indeed unlikely to become a reality. But potentially it would have decent economic and military power.

    The concept of a “two-speed Europe” would not be a club of selection but rather a “coalition of the willing”, as I understand it. The implication is that you’d be saddled with poor chaps like Portugal, Spain and Greece in addition to Italy. These countries would likely be on page with Germany on most if not all major strategic issues, but the economic burden would be non-trivial.

    As for the rest of the EU imo one can just forget about them for any project that would give “Europe” an independent voice in the world. AP is always telling us that Poland and Ukraine (plus maybe the Baltic states) will form a really powerful bloc, and since I’ve seen similar ideas elsewhere on the net this seems to be a real belief among Eastern Europeans. I’m more inclined to view it as an absurd fantasy, and the mis-match between reality and aspirations (plus the endless paranoia from their historical grievances) means these states will always be vectors for American influence.

    The principal political problem in Europe to be solved is a “grand bargain” between Russia and Germany. These are the two most important European powers – not France and Germany, as commonly assumed.

    To my mind, the reason why there is a war is because the US interfered in Ukraine’s politics in 2014 and has added fuel to the fire ever since. That is an indictment of European weakness – we cannot even master our own continent without foreign powers poking their nose into our affairs.

    A “Carolingian model” would not solve this, but merely exacerbate the issue by pushing the butthurtbelters deeper into the arms of the US. I share your skepticism about their capability to run their own affairs. An “intermarium” is a delusion, and their countries would quickly fall prey to stronger outside forces, and would transform more of them into chess pieces like Ukraine. That would increase pan-European instability, rather than enhance their sovereignty.

    As loath as you may be to engage with these petty chauvinists, they are your problem to solve whether you like it or not. For if we will not, then non-European actors will and their interests are rarely close to ours.

    Coming back to the “grand bargain”: Germany did attempt a weak variation of such a bargain through its Ostpolitik, but its failure should now be apparent to everyone.

    So what is to be done? In my view, the only way to push out the Americans is to unite Europe even more and then force a solution over the heads of the butthurtbelters that cannot be sabotaged. That would include a reform of “one country, one veto” system in favour of a QMV system. Macron is certainly right about that. At the same time, their security concerns, while often exaggerated to the point of hysterical, cannot be completely dismissed.

    A federal Europe would also require a federal army, which is why NATO must be demolished over the medium to long run. I am a supporter of Sweden joining NATO, but only as a stepping stone to a pan-European security architecture. Only such a force would be capable of dealing with Russia on our own terms without foreign (read: American) interference. A splintering into smaller blocs would be to repeat the sins of the past.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    , @A123
  460. Wielgus says:
    @AP

    In 1914, some Russians didn’t want to annex Galicia because it was anti-Russian and they feared it would infect Russian-ruled Ukraine with its Ukrainian nationalism, leading to a loss of Ukraine. They were a bit too optimistic about central Ukraine.

    First time I have heard this in relation to 1914. Witte’s “Galicia? It’s full of Jews” was more like the sceptical Russian attitude to Galicia at the time. This attitude was that annexing Galicia would just mean making the Pale of Settlement a bit larger and introducing even more Jews into Russia.
    However, it is well-attested that Austro-Hungarian authorities, especially the military, feared “Ruthenians” (west Ukrainians) might be pro-Russian and executions and other brutalities were inflected on them. The Austrian poet Georg Trakl, a medical orderly in 1914, saw some of them being hanged outside a hut where he was trying to treat wounded, and this contributed to his nervous breakdown. He was evacuated and died of an overdose, maybe suicide, maybe accidental.
    Fiction connected to WW1 also refers to it – Joseph Roth in The Radetzky March has his protagonist, an Austro-Hungarian officer, looking at Ruthenians hanged by his own forces in 1914. They are starting to rot and their faces blacken in the late summer or early autumn heat – he wonders if one of them is Onufriy, his servant who deserted just as the war started. The Czech Jaroslav Hasek in The Good Soldier Svejk depicts Hungarian troops beating up Ruthenian peasants they have detained. An officer comes along and orders them to be removed to the back of a shed so they can be beaten up without anyone witnessing it. Hasek also mentions a Greek Catholic (Uniate) priest being executed and Austro-Hungarian troops confiscating the contents of his larder.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    , @AP
  461. Wielgus says:
    @songbird

    He sounds a bit like Sheldon Cooper, though perhaps more likeable.

  462. Parfois2 says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    Looks like the cat is now out of the bag because of Mikel’s indiscretion! I thought for a very long while (over two months) that I had the monopoly of the “secret” around here and another popular blog (that this war is not got against Ukraine)…

    I don’t claim to be a military or geopolitical guru, but the Russian SMO did not make military sense as early as after the first two weeks and eventually it dawned on me that the answer is something outside the (military) box.

    The Kremlin is after a bigger fish to fry, literally.

    • Replies: @Mikel
  463. German_reader says:
    @Thulean Friend

    To my mind, the reason why there is a war is because the US interfered in Ukraine’s politics in 2014 and has added fuel to the fire ever since.

    tbf Germany and the EU weren’t innocent in this either as I understand it…comment by “sean” above has mentioned that the association deal offered to Ukraine was of an “either or” kind, so it was a clear attempt to push Russian influence out and replace it with EU influence, something that was bound to cause trouble in a split country like Ukraine with a neighbour like Russia.
    That’s also one of the reasons why the “muh Molotov-Ribbentropp 2.0” nonsense pushed by many Eastern Euros is absurd imo. German policy was rather incoherent and incompetent…it had enough elements to provoke Russia and convince Putin and his circle that Germany and France would never really pursue an independent course and be a real counter-weight to US promoted policies of confrontation (e.g. no real push by Germany and France to make Ukraine implement the Minsk agreements, also their attitude on other matters, like their craven compliance with the US just blatantly reneging on the nuclear agreement with Iran), but at the same time didn’t draw the conclusion that relations with Russia were likely to deteriorate drastically and that making Germany highly dependent on Russian energy supplies was pretty foolish. Worst of both worlds one could say. And now any possibility of an independent German policy towards Russia is gone for the foreseeable future anyway, given Russia’s unacceptable actions since February (and the reaction they have caused in the Western camp).
    Agree with you about the need for greater European integration not least in the military sector, though it’s of course a question how this could be implemented, and on the whole I’m rather pessimistic that much will be achieved.

    • Thanks: Thulean Friend
  464. sher singh says:
    @AP

    Prostitution helps the economy,

  465. sher singh says:
    @silviosilver

    He’s just old enough that he doesn’t have to pay the price of these contradictions.
    Anyone below 45 could read the room, he just happens to be 50. Hack is retired,

    We’re the ones arguing with boomers about politics.
    We’re the retards.

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    [MORE]

    I wouldn’t even describe AP as a racist tbh, but slavish.
    Russians & Serbs to an extent are the only sovereign Slavs,

    Everyone else has a contemptuous inferiority complex towards the West & esp Germanics.
    He comes off as any cucked seething christcuck would,

    https://sceptremag.com/2020/06/29/blm-good-alm-bad/

    They’re just spineless & haven’t had to pay the toll for their bullshit yet.
    Like Spaniards & Germans who consistently hate India for caste, while debating refugee intakes.

    You kind of have to have a bold indifference toward the world because most people don’t have consistent views let alone principles.

    No Maryada, and without a Maryada you do not really exist.
    Without Kesh + Shastar you’re not a man,

    I know you’ll get offended by some part of this, but ultimately what seethes you:
    You get to have dark skin, but none of the benefits in Australia. :shrug: :crossed_swords:

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    • Thanks: Coconuts
  466. Beckow says:
    @Wielgus

    They drop the fake snow like they drop their fake principles…

  467. Beckow says:
    @AP

    …good luck developing it while sanctioned and with declining economy and no aid

    If you need aid, you are not really developing. The aid from EU is not what you think it is, they don’t shower you with money, they give you loans to buy their stuff.

    You also cannot sanction what Russia sells: energy, natural resources, food. That’s the whole point of this quagmire, so stop arguing like a 5-year old and think.

    “Same rules need to apply”

    Same rules do not apply because Ukraine was not the invader but the invaded.

    They do. Since Nato invaded Serbia to assure minority rights for Kosovo Albanians, the same rules apply. Look it up, in 2010 even the Hague Court said so: protection for minorities trumps borders. An unfortunate precedense, but nevetheless a precedense that applies. The same people who did Kosovo are now apoplectic when the rule is applied in Donbas. But rule is a rule, they made it with bombing and by killing civilians in Serbia. You can’t walk that back.

    The Russians may or may not collapse eventually (both are real possibilities). If they do then Ukrainians are there to advance, they are not passive.

    It is more likely that the Kiev government collapses. Or not. I think nobody will be collapsing and we will have to deal with the real stuff: uncollapsed hatreds and economic consequences. Unless you are a superficial cheerleader you by now realize that the business consequences for all involved will be very dire. The ones with the least ability to suffer and adjust will suffer the most. We are heading to a period when material resources will increase in value and financial ‘resources’ will decrease – you do the math on who has what.

  468. Quite safe to say now that alleged failed UA landing on Snake island didn’t happen at all as advanced levels of desperate lies and denial of reality have been reached lately on RF state media propTV news – showing UA Bayraktar videos with blown RF military hardware on Snake island while telling it was unsuccesful landing by UA, lol

    https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/5502

  469. Also RF state TV is promoting the latest posting by Trump Jr., so it is pretty clear that lend-lease shipments will be stopped if second Trump term will happen:

    https://ntv-static.cdnvideo.ru/home/news/2022/20220513/zel_io.jpgA

    • LOL: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @sudden death
    , @AP
  470. Coconuts says:
    @silviosilver

    Unfortunately for him, he’s enough of a self-deluding nitwit to believe that is the result of prudent policy rather than the more pedestrian reality that those places have (in the case of the former, at least until recently) been too poor to attract the negroid hordes.

    This sounds basically correct, Eastern Europe had a big advantage on this issue of being under Communist rule, there seems to be an obvious correlation between Liberal Democracy, free-market economics and mass immigration that can be seen in pretty much every Western European country. And where you have this sort of Liberalism and economic success for a prolonged length of time, you mostly see the growth of Wokedom. This suggests the Awokening, negromania etc. isn’t some kind of aberration or deviation from the expected course of things, but a natural outcome.

    Probably Auguste Comte’s famous phrase about Protestantism can be adapted (and with more justification): Liberalism is the sedition of the individual against the species.

    Don’t know if anyone knows what to do about it or how to handle it yet though, some E. Europeans are at least aware of it cf. the Polish poltical philosopher Ryszard Legutko’s book ‘The Demon in Democracy’.

    • Replies: @Sher Singh
    , @S
    , @S
  471. AP says:
    @silviosilver

    AP would evidently like to reserve the right to be as contemptuous of western Europe and the Anglosphere as he pleases – “eastern Europeans are righting the mess that the English made of their country” “Canada was a cultural wasteland until my people showed up” – while the same time insisting that they simply must come rushing to his people’s aid.

    No contradiction. By saving Eastern Europe, Western Europe saves Europe as a whole (including, therefore, itself) because Eastern Europe is Europe’s future, it’s reservoir of traditonal values and purity.

  472. Meanwhile, in Europe’s foremost reservoir of traditional values and purity, Ukro refugees kill a Pole in Warsaw in a brawl over a girl they were molesting.

    https://t.me/intelslava/28715

    Immoral some would say but nonetheless surely smarter than getting killed instead in Donbass, that cannot be disputed.

    • LOL: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @AP
  473. AP says:
    @silviosilver

    Despite his “America was always meant for everyone” claptrap (a very old game), AP is obviously a ‘racist.’ Why else does he make it a point to describe how refreshingly free of negroids and muslims the areas of Poland and Ukraine he visited were?

    Nonsense, wanting to keep Europe European makes me no more a racist than wanting to keep Africa African. I wish black people all the best. And Muslims, I was opposed to America slaughtering them for no reason in Iraq. Islam is alien to both Europe and the USA though, they shouldn’t be there in large numbers unless they become completely secularized in the USA.

    America is not Europe, the homeland for Europeans; Africans were here about as early as were Europeans and American culture has been heavily influenced by Native Americans and Africans from the beginning (Carl Jung noted this when he observed how white Americans even walk differently compared to how Europeans walk). Jazz music, language, etc. As an alien to America (you moved here from Australia, right?) you don’t understand that.

    Anyways your racism is funny because you seem to be some swarthy Balkanoid who might as well be an African or a gypsy compared to people with Nordic appearance such as me and actual Slavs. To imitate TL, is it a compensatory thing for you?

    hat is the result of prudent policy rather than the more pedestrian reality that those places have (in the case of the former, at least until recently) been too poor

    Eastern Europe had explicit policies banning Muslim refugees. When Belarus tried sending them into Poland they were kept out and forced to sit in the cold forests on the other side of the border. Relative prosperity also played a role, as I stated numerous times, don’t lie and claim I didn’t notice that. And don’t lie and claim I support unrestricted immigration to the USA. I support a moratorium so that the current wave assimilates into American values, and I vote accordingly.

    • Replies: @Sher Singh
    , @songbird
  474. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    There are millions of Ukrainians in Poland, why be surprised that random negative incidents occur? (assuming that an entity called Intel Slava Z” is even presenting an accurate case). Your post is the equivalent of “proving” that there aren’t group differences in intelligence or some other attribute by pointing out an isolated case or a few isolated cases that don’t follow the trend.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @sudden death
  475. @silviosilver

    The premise here is that Russia is losing.

    I don’t think it is, attrition ratios seem to heavily favor Russians in the Donbass as I have said before (high quality Ukrainian PR aside).

    But taking that premise at face value, not losing the war is objectively more important to Russia specifically than SpaceX’s/China’s future problems with space exploration in the next few decades, and if that is what it takes to shut down Starlink, a system that is materially contributing to Ukrainian combat effectiveness, then it is what it is. Blowing up stuff in low earth orbit is not illegal under international law, and it is not like a defeated Russia will have any future in space anyway at that point.

    I don’t think the kremlins are quite as ruthless and maximalist as I am, though.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    , @Beckow
  476. songbird says:
    @Mikhail

    The orange color is a recessive x-linked trait, so 80% are toms. Probably explains it.

    I’ve long thought that testosterone makes some sexes of animals seem like entirely different species behaviorally, and cats are one of them, roosters being another.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
  477. Mr. Hack says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I don’t think the kremlins are quite as ruthless and maximalist as I am, though.

    Do you don your black hundreds’ cape and mask before you head out to the local coffee shop to play Z soldier on your laptop, or do you just sleep in your vampirish get-up too (you shirt looks a little bit crumpled in the photo, wouldn’t you agree?)?

    You’ve always enjoyed playing soldier vicariously, haven’t you? The stench of rotting corpses on the battle field would soon jolt you back into your bourgeois urban lifestyle (you couldn’t take it).

    • LOL: Thulean Friend
  478. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Wielgus

    At that point in time, the Galician Ukrainians weren’t as anti-Russian, thereby explaining why they weren’t hostile to White Russian forces when the two met up in Kiev during the Russian Civil War, followed by their alliance in reply to the Pilsudski-Petiura alliance.

  479. songbird says:
    @silviosilver

    Ask not what your country can do for you. Or what you can do for your country. But what you can do for Ukrainians and Ukraine.

    That is AP’s universal Ukrainian nationalism.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  480. Mikhail says: • Website
    @songbird

    Calico cats are mostly female and not known for being as friendly – though I had a couple of experiences to the contrary.

    • Thanks: songbird
  481. AP says:
    @sudden death

    That will be in 2.5 years. Hopefully the war will end before that time.

  482. songbird says:
    @Barbarossa

    I get the impression you are a fair bit older than myself so it may have been very fringe then.

    I don’t want to calibrate too closely for security purposes, but this was later. Though, it was probably still rare enough, as the Boston area might in some way be considered the pedagogical center of America. (for ex. Horace Mann).

    And the schools are so much worse now than when I was a kid

    One of the worst things I remember is during women’s history month, we had some feminist passage read to us over the loudspeaker every day, or at least that’s how I remember it.

    One way to judge how necessary twelve years of schooling is is to ask how many people use algebra at work. Probably <20%, and then what year they teach algebra. (Think it was 8th grade for me. Maybe 7th depending on how you define it. Though I am sure they do it earlier in Europe)

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  483. Mr. Hack says:
    @songbird

    It’s not like anybody has forced the US to help Ukraine during this crisis? Ukrainians, for all of their success in America, unfortunately don’t have that kind of political clout to influence US foreign policy. America has provided funds much more foolishly around the globe many times before. Russia has been America’s main adversary since at least as far back as the end of WWII, and as AP has so ably stated here before, providing Ukraine with a \$2,000 javelin that will eventually destroy a \$25 mil. Russian T-72 or 90, is a great ROI. It’s not only the US government that is supporting Ukraine, but the US populace as well. I’ve driven past a modest, well kept, Mexican American’s home in my neighborhood that has a huge Ukrainian flag mounted on a pole flying in front of his house. It’s even bigger than my own (I’m kidding here, I don’t have one but am considering getting one, because the Mexican is shaming me!). 🙂

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @songbird
  484. Beckow says:
    @AP

    Eastern Europe is Europe’s future, its reservoir of traditional values and purity.

    You are on the right track. Maybe, I think. But check out these videos:

    https://www.inenoviny.sk/volodymyr-zelenskyj-a-jeho-excesy/

    If this is the future, well, a few hooded Jamaicans aren’t that bad. What are the poor Ukies thinking? Or they didn’t know?

    The traditional purity of Ukie nationalism, they will be right at home in Brussels…

    • Replies: @AP
  485. A123 says: • Website
    @Thulean Friend

    The concept of a “two-speed Europe” would not be a club of selection but rather a “coalition of the willing”, as I understand it. The implication is that you’d be saddled with poor chaps like Portugal, Spain and Greece in addition to Italy. These countries would likely be on page with Germany on most if not all major strategic issues, but the economic burden would be non-trivial.

    Speed is probably not the best analogy. There will be at least two 2 Blocs.

    — SJW Globalist — Germany, France, Belgium, Sweden, Spain(?), Portugal(?) — This faction is dedicated to Open Borders, multiculturalism, climate change dogma, austerity style economics, and the enrichment of MegaCorporations.

    — Christian Populist — Visegrád 4, Austria, Italy, Cyprus, Greece(?) — This faction is dedicated to protecting Citizens with immigration restrictions, dynamic economic growth, sane energy policy, and defense of traditional Judeo-Christian values.

    Even this separation is problematic. Where would Greece fall? Culturally they belong in the SJW block. However, the need for border controls and energy policy makes them a logical choice for the Populist block.

    So what is to be done? In my view, the only way to push out the Americans is to unite Europe even more and then force a solution over the heads of the butthurtbelters that cannot be sabotaged. That would include a reform of “one country, one veto” system in favour of a QMV system. Macron is certainly right about that. At the same time, their security concerns, while often exaggerated to the point of hysterical, cannot be completely dismissed.

    EU Culture-Cucks are dismayed that they cannot force anti-European, SJW values on Christian Europe. Sane countries will not give up their veto and submit to EU “authoritarian liberalism”. Despite their disagreement over Ukraine, both Poland and Hungary will surely block anything that tries increase the power of Brussels Butthurt Bureaucrats. The idea of QMV died before it left the starting gates.

    The € Common Currency is a complete fiasco without a genuine Fiscal Union to back it up. Bavarian Butthurt Bankers will never give up their nation’s veto to QMV. That could easily lead to effective financial reforms that would stop pumping wealth from the periphery to the center, and then further into their pockets.
    ____

    So what is to be done? In my view, the only option is to recognize that there is no such thing as “European Values”. The excessive ambition of the EU/EZ has had disastrous impact on citizens and countries.

    — Ending the EZ common currency in an orderly way is essential.
    — Replacing the EU with a looser structure would also help.

    The new, less ambitious coalition would focus on a more limited set of matters where consensus exists. Many of these will be purely practical matters like trade, crime, and intra-European affairs that help citizen consumers (e.g. cell phone roaming rules).

    PEACE 😇

  486. Beckow says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    …I don’t think the kremlins are quite as ruthless and maximalist as I am, though.

    They are ruthless enough. High quality PR disconnected from reality is only a short-term plus – in the long run it is embarrassing: big talk, big lies, stories they tell themselves. If Russia wants to win, they will. So far they have taken about 15-20% of Ukraine at a low cost for a country of 150 million.

    They have also triggered an economic tailspin in the West – more ‘money’ will not solve it at this point – they will need materials stuff, and that is getting very expensive.

  487. Mikel says:
    @AP

    The countries of the former Yugoslavia did a lot of fighting and dying too and they could equally claim to have done it for “democracy and western values” but most of them are still waiting to get into the EU about a quarter of a century later.

    The obvious goal of all countries trying to get into the EU is to become more prosperous and stable. So changing the rules in the way you defend defeats the purpose. It is really in nobody’s interest to let countries join before they solve their problems with the rule of law, poverty, oligarchic control of the economy and politics, subsidied prices, obsolete industry, etc.

    • Replies: @AP
  488. Mikel says:
    @Parfois2

    Looks like the cat is now out of the bag because of Mikel’s indiscretion!

    Jesus… I did expect some people not to get the irony, it always happens. But to fuel a new conspiracy theory… it never crossed my mind. I should have known better.

  489. Mr. Hack says:
    @songbird

    Probably <20%, and then what year they teach algebra.

    Even this may be a generous estimate?…I’ve used arithmetic quite a bit during my career but algebra seldom. A few times when running discrimination tests related to the administration of small pension plans. How about you? Geometry, trigonometry, statistics, calculus, up to 5%?…..

  490. AP says:
    @Beckow

    Zelensky’s supposed drug habit is the talk of Russian boomer housewives. You have great company.

    The other stuff is from his comedy routine. You think the cast of Monty Python were also transexuals?

  491. @AP

    RF industry of fakes now has gone into international overdrive cringe, so every little detail of any claims must be thoroughly rechecked (date of incident, consequences, real identity of participants etc), e.g. now they are spreading fakes about USA provided artillery system allegedly being captured by RF while it being just a cropped picture from UA war journalist Butusov’s video about it being used for remote demolition of RF tank:

    https://t.me/ChDambiev/16709

    https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/5491

    • Thanks: AP
  492. AP says:
    @Wielgus

    First time I have heard this in relation to 1914. Witte’s “Galicia? It’s full of Jews” was more like the sceptical Russian attitude to Galicia at the time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_occupation_of_Eastern_Galicia_(1914%E2%80%931915)#Background

    Former Russian Interior Minister Pyotr Durnovo was an outspoken opponent of the annexation of eastern Galicia. Writing in February 1914, he claimed that the people had for the most part lost all connection to the Russian fatherland, and that in addition to a “negligible handful” of Russophile Ukrainian Galicians, Russia would take in large numbers of Poles, Jews, and Ukrainophile Ukrainians. Durnovo wrote that currently Ukrainian separatism was not a threat to Russia but that annexing a territory with many Ukrainian nationalists could plant seeds within Russia for a dangerous movement and that this might have unexpected consequences.

    :::::::::::::

    However, it is well-attested that Austro-Hungarian authorities, especially the military, feared “Ruthenians” (west Ukrainians) might be pro-Russian and executions and other brutalities were inflected on them.

    About 10% to 20% of Galicians were Russophiles. The majority were nationalists who were loyal to Austria, relationships were bitter between the two and nationalists often served as prosecutors to execute Russophiles. Measures against the Russophiles by Austria were somewhat understandable at the time, because they were traitors during time of war although hysteria led to overreaction and real crimes at times. Hungarians were some of the most brutal, probably because they hated Slavs the most and because they were the more clueless and couldn’t tell loyal Ukrainians from disloyal ones. Poles were tricky: some Poles in administrative positions would falsely accuse Ukrainian nationalist loyalists of being Russophiles and they would get arrested and incarcerated for a time, before the truth would come out and they were released.

    [MORE]

    About half of my Galician ancestors and relatives at that time belonged to the Russophile minority. My great-grandparents hosted Brusilov (or governor Bobrinsky, I forgot which one) at their estate during the occupation. When Austria liberated Galicia from the Russians, they were slated to be executed but great-grandmother’s brother-in-law was chief physician at an Austrian military hospital, intervened and saved them (ideologies varied within families but blood is thicker than water). Their oldest sons escaped and entered the military medical academy in St. Petersburg, and stayed in Russia after the Revolution. Grandmother’s oldest brother survived the Leningrad blockade and other brother settled in Moscow. The middle children were Polish officers or married to them, the younger children from this family were Ukrainian nationalists.

    The Polish state supported the Russophiles in 1920-1940 because the Polish government pursued a strategy of divide and conquer and the Russophiles were the weaker party among the Ukrainians (they did not consider themselves Ukrainians of course, but Russians).

    • Replies: @Wielgus
  493. AP says:
    @Mikel

    The countries of the former Yugoslavia did a lot of fighting and dying too and they could equally claim to have done it for “democracy and western values” but most of them are still waiting to get into the EU about a quarter of a century late

    Slovenia was, perhaps Croatia too (not that familiar with it). Having free elections and a democratic system is explicitly and genuinely one of the reasons why Ukrainians fought to stay out of the Russian World, which does not really value such things.

    The obvious goal of all countries trying to get into the EU is to become more prosperous and stable

    And in Ukraine’s case, also democratic. A despotism could have been stable and Russia offered billions of dollars plus the Russian market but Ukrainians rejected this stability and prosperity for the democratic model of its western neighbors.

    I do share the opinion that war is not sufficient for EU entry, it needs to be coupled with some control over corruption and other reforms. But the sacrifices should count for something, place Ukraine on a fast track provided it does what it needs to do.

  494. Ron Unz says:
    @Sean

    Tanks are being used to occupy the territory that the Western artillery is winning for Ukraine by outraging the guns of the Russians, who are helpless.

    Maybe it’s just dishonest propaganda aimed at increasing support, but there was a big NYT story this morning about Russia’s massive superiority in artillery:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/12/world/ukraine-russia-weapons.html

    • Replies: @Sean
  495. Sher Singh says:
    @Coconuts

    Agree, currently reading a few books on Lib democracy/pol theory will update when done.

    Currently, my pre-reading intuitions are: the dominance of capital + reduction of non-state political actors means the professional bureaucratic + capitalist elite classs is able to import populations for labour/political purposes.

    • Replies: @Coconuts
  496. songbird says:
    @Mr. Hack

    It’s not like anybody has forced the US to help Ukraine during this crisis?

    There are levers of power, even though we don’t perceive them. Call it the MIC, if you like. The US didn’t always go seeking dragons abroad.

    [MORE]

    Russia has been America’s main adversary since at least as far back as the end of WWII

    That’s over now, and it was pretty questionable to begin with. Honestly, I don’t care who Ethiopia or Somalia are client states of. In fact, from my perspective it would probably be a net benefit to have one’s country “kicked out” of Africa. Not that there is much chance of that.

    providing Ukraine with a \$2,000 javelin that will eventually destroy a \$25 mil. Russian T-72 or 90, is a great ROI.

    Killing Russians is not a good investment for Americans. They are not a conventional military threat to America, and it will only engender long-lasting, bad will, the costs of which are hard to quantify but which potentially could be extreme (nuclear war.) Meanwhile, encouraging Ukrainian youths to be thrown into a meatgrinder is not a good investment either, from my perspective.

    Even this may be a generous estimate?

    Probably is. Think I heard 17%, but that itself is probably way too high. Anyway, I want to be generous.

    My takeaway is that, at a minimum, 80% of people should not be “educated” past the 8th grade.

    I’m not trying to create a new elite, as some would accuse me – but I think it is pretty obvious that current ideas about education do most people harm, and we should try to avoid that harm, as much as possible.

    Wouldn’t it be better, if it were given into frontloaded savings or retirement accounts, like in Singapore. Or health accounts? If 15 year old boys are mature, then why the heck are we warehousing them? Some of them are probably pretty sharp, wouldn’t it be better to use that sharpness? After all, the world is pretty dumb.

    As to math in professional life, I would say that most people who use “advanced” math, only use derived equations. They are plugging numbers into formulae, not even doing the math on paper. I don’t know, if we should even call that “algebra.”

    It is hard for me to even conceive of more than 1 in 1000 (not counting math teachers) of using actual calculus (as opposed to equations, that can be derived by calculus). In a weird way, maybe calculus is like a space-program appreciation program.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  497. Sher Singh says:
    @AP

    No contradiction. By saving Eastern Europe, Western Europe saves Europe as a whole (including, therefore, itself) because Eastern Europe is Europe’s future, it’s reservoir of traditonal values and purity.

    Nonsense, wanting to keep Europe European makes me no more a racist than wanting to keep Africa African. Anyways your racism is funny because you seem to be some swarthy Balkanoid who might as well be an African or a gypsy compared to people with Nordic appearance such as me and actual Slavs. To imitate TL, is it a compensatory thing for you?

    This is laughably dumb, and would get you assaulted by BLM or Antifa in the US/EU. You’re surely smarter this on an IQ basis, but Hoholism reduces political IQ considerably.

    You’re not being clever or fooling anyone by claiming an exception to an ideology upon which your national survival literally rests. Post-war the Ukranian rump-state will be expected to be ultra-prog & esp so with Jewish elites.

    And don’t lie and claim I support unrestricted immigration to the USA. I support a moratorium so that the current wave assimilates into American values, and I vote accordingly.

    This is lit a White Nationalist position by current standards as a belief in a central set of American values to which immigrants must submit is problematic for 3 reasons:

    1. Notions of American values have trad excluded Black, Hispanic, Asian & Indigineous peoples all of whom have been here longer than Hohols

    2. It’s assuming ‘foreign’ cultures have nothing of value to add

    3. It infringes on an individual liberty to maintain one’s own traditions, and expands the state from its classic mandate to protect personal property & economic interests.

    So, these views fall afoul of both the Classic American Left & Right – Hohols bringing over their batshit Third World ideologies.

    You know what they call a Nationalist intervention in culture?
    Ie a State expansion into the Social Realm.

    National Socialism,

    I look forward to a majority Non-white Ukraine as that’s what you’ve earned by opposing Russia.

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  498. Wielgus says:
    @AP

    Ruthenians (west Ukrainians) were, in 1914, a much smaller element of the population than now. Substantial numbers of Galicians were Jews (Joseph Roth was from Brody and the Galician parts of his novel have a particularly authentic feel to them). There was a substantial Polish population as well, and it was widely thought that they were somewhat favoured by Vienna. Perhaps due to being Catholic.
    The Austro-Hungarians suffered heavy defeats in Galicia in 1914 and were chronically suspicious of some of their Slavic and other minorities. The assumption that Ruthenians were pro-Moscow had deadly consequences for many of them. The Russians may or may not have favoured Ruthenians when they overran much of Galicia, but they reportedly targeted Jews, and many fled west – Franz Kafka described relief work in his diary for Galician Jews who had fled to Prague.

    • Replies: @AP
  499. songbird says:
    @AP

    American culture has been heavily influenced by Native Americans and Africans from the beginning (Carl Jung noted this when he observed how white Americans even walk differently compared to how Europeans walk). Jazz music, language, etc. As an alien to America (you moved here from Australia, right?) you don’t understand that.

    ROTFL

    Most people hate jazz. And you are seriously suggesting that traditional American culture was influenced by adopting some of the customs of cannibalistic savages, who practiced ritual torture and infanticide?

    And that silviosilver is more alien and less comprehending than American blacks because he grew up in another “Anglo country”, as you would call it? Or because he has got some Southern European blood? LMAO.

    BTW, speaking personally, I’d rather live in Wop-city, than in some super-Nord city with 3% blacks.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Matra
  500. sher singh says:

    From the theoretical point of view, some liberals like F. A. Hayek have argued that ‘democracy (is]
    essentially a means, an utilitarian device for safeguarding internal peace and individual frecdom’,2 useful as long as it did not endanger liberal institutions but to be discarded when it did.

    Other liberals have followed another strategy, arguing that were the people to decide ‘in a rational manner’ they could not go against rights and liberties and, if they happened to do so, their
    verdict should not be accepted as legitimate.

    From the other side, some democrats have been keen to dismiss liberal institutions as ‘bourgeois formal liberties’ and to fight for their replacement by direct forms of democracy in which the will of
    the people could be expressed without hindrances.

    Basically this, not finding it particularly for AP just on this page.
    The ‘mob’ has never overthrown a government on its throughout the breadth of Christendom.

    https://twitter.com/JDKnox4/status/1455523371827990530/photo/1

    To think a mish-mash of Hohols, Deracinated Germans & Mushy-Mixed Anglos will do so now, given the above is not only laughable, but clinically insane. Nigga, you need to be institutionalized AP. You’re a threat to yourself, and others – patients.

    Where America goes the rest follow: Do you think France cares about ethnicity?
    Reminder, that it was SECULARISM that led to Nationalism. Until the Church was removed from the state your ethnic larp had no political considerations.

    Now that we once again have a pseudo-christian state religion, in the West you will be blacked..

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  501. @Sean

    I agree about China. IT already owns huge farms in Eastern ?Ukraine. Chinese firms are building a port. The infrasturcutre contractors are already there. A settlement would protect them.

    Another winner will be Turkey.

  502. @Wokechoke

    VM won his bit of Kursk repeating his tactics of 1942. These are not exactly the same positions and so far tank warfoar has not been possilbe due to mud but just as a genearal principle, terrain that shelters is also terrain that traps.

  503. AP says:
    @songbird

    Most people hate jazz. And you are seriously suggesting that traditional American culture was influenced

    Most Americans listen to R & B and rap. And most of those who don’t, listen to rock and roll music which is also heavily influenced by blacks.

    American slang also comes mostly from blacks.

    Why are you denying such obvious things?

    Btw Boston is the only place in America with a legitimate white ghetto, full of Irish-Americans with drug problems, out of wedlock births, street gangs, etc. Though I hear that it has been cleaned up recently.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    , @songbird
  504. @AP

    Well, the guy dressed like a blond tranny was a homosexual, so…. Maybe find a better example next time, eh 😉

  505. AP says:
    @Wielgus

    Ruthenians (west Ukrainians) were, in 1914, a much smaller element of the population than now

    The breakdown was 65% Ukrainians, 25% Poles, 10% Jews with trivial numbers of Germans and Czechs.

    • Replies: