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Open Thread 186: Russia/Ukraine
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The previous Open Thread has well over 1,000 comments and is getting a little sluggish, so here’s a new one for the Karlin Community.

Just to kick it off, here are a couple of interviews I’d strongly recommend, one of British Prof. Richard Sakwa on the Grayzone, and the other of Scott Ritter you was just interviewed yesterday by Andrew Napolitano:

— Ron Unz

 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: Open Thread, Russia, Ukraine 
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  1. Kofman has a new episode up, too.

    https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/ukraines-military-advantage-and-russias-stark-choices/

    I just finished listening to it, and it’s pretty pessimistic on Russia’s chances (barring a general mobilisation, in which all bets are off). I’m about 10 mins into Ritter and it’s the usual “this is a total slaughter, it’s not even a fair fight anymore”.

    Pretty interesting that you get two such completely divergent images. I lean more towards Ritter being right (despite his at-times blind pro-Russian cheerleading). Still, I think readers could benefit from both perspectives as Kofman is fairly level-headed and the pro-UKR perspective is needed to balance out Ritter.

    With the US military openly admitting that they want to weaken Russia, this is as official as it gets to this being classified as a US-Russian proxywar, with Eastern Europe as the chessboard.

    The reports that Russia is shutting off gas for non-ruble payers is hilarious, and entirely foreseeable. Europe is paying the price for being an inert spectator as America controls its foreign – and increasingly, military – policies. I can’t say I feel much empathy. If people are stupid, they deserve to get punished.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Ron Unz
    , @Ron Unz
  2. In the previous thread, Ron Unz wrote:

    That’s the thing. None of them—Ritter, Macgregor, Johnson, or others—come across as “Kremlin shills” because they aren’t. They’re sober Western military experts, and what they’re saying seems pretty reasonable. Meanwhile, Karlin and those other Russians you mention seem to have had grandiose/inflated ideas at the beginning, and since those haven’t worked out, they’ve become demoralized. I think you’d be better off listening to the people I mentioned.

    (1) Things I got correct:
    * The invasion itself (from late December 2021 so quite early, if not as early as the earliest) – yes
    * Chinese acquiescence and de facto support – yes
    * Russian popular support – yes
    * Negotiations a charade – yes, repeatedly demonstrated to be so and keep confirming the likely truth of (2)
    * There would be no meaningful insurgency – yes so far

    (2) Things that I predicted and are panning out:
    * Russia’s likely maximalist goals – yes so far, Kherson People’s Republic coalescing, others will follow

    (3) Things I got wrong:
    * 2-3 weeks to decisively win – though so did most people

    The last one was shared by most analysts as well as very likely many in the Russian government, they evidently thought it would be a recap of Hungary 1956/Czechoslovakia 1968.

    I also do not know where Ron got the idea that I am demoralized from, I have stated repeatedly that Russia will almost certainly win regardless. (My slanderers clearly have severe reading comprehension issues, conflating what I very clearly labeled to be hypothetical scenarios with my assessment of what was actually going to happen).

    My polite suggestion to Ron should he decide to take it is that it may be prudent to consider attaching less weight to insinuations made against me by personalities with well-known vendettas against me – the conman Thulean Fraud, the slanderous Armenoid piece of shit who begged me to unban me after having made unforgiveable accusations against me (which I did for some strange reason), the émigré cosmopolitan Jew inordinately interested in sneakers and YouTube unboxing videos who for some truly undecipherable reason presumes himself qualified to make ethnic assessments about me, etc.).

    ***

    Thulean Fraud <a title=”"https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-185-russia-ukraine/#comment-5307637"claimshttps://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-185-russia-ukraine/#comment-5307637"claims:

    Only ~3 months apart. The bet was supposed to last to 2050 🙂

    Come to think of it, Karlin has a pretty good track record of predicting events which are short-term in nature with a very limited, defined time-frame (e.g. Trump’s election, Russia’s invasion) but whose long-term analytical abilities are poor (got China badly wrong, predicted America’s imminent demise back in 2010, misunderstood Putin’s aims, shilled Peak Oil for years before he quietly dropped it and so on, and so forth). I think I’m the inverse.

    There is a reason I call Thulean Fraud a lying conman. I criticized a single aspect of Chinese policy, I did not reverse or question my bet. I got Putin’s aims perfectly correct (at any rate reality on the ground continues to back them up), predicted the Great Bifurcation (currently in progress). Peak oil and “imminent demise” (not really) of he US was from a short period when I was 22, it was a pretty short phase, many people keep it up for decades. But good on him for digging up my deep archives, near ODS-tier dedication.

    ***

    Also, a belated Happy Easter to all!

  3. What’s the point of this war for Russia?

    Anything, but taking almost of Ukraine makes, even in Russian terms, attempts at supposed “demilitarisation” and “denazification” counter-productive.

    Ukraine will be a lot more NATO, a lot more anti-Russian and a lot more militarised after this war than before, especially the longer it goes on.

    As for territory, Russia has plenty of land already, and they controlled the bits of Ukraine that were most appropriate (Crimea etc) before the war. There was very little fighting and Ukrainians were sort of accepting of it.

    But now Ukraine will not accept it and Russia will have an eternal insurgency to deal with, and a constant conventional threat. This is a nightmare scenario for Russia.

    And it is extremely obvious that they have no ability to take Kyiv, so…yeah, well, what’s the point?

    To prove that they were never a serious threat to NATO, not because they are not bloodthirsty enough, but because they are too weak and incompetent?

    To murder some Ukrainians?

    To destroy the Russian military?

    To forge a united Ukrainian nation in the fires of war?

    To make NATO 10 times stronger and to empower Western militarists?

    To make the Iraq war look good?

    To discredit their own ruling system?

    To destroy the election chances of Putin-sympathetic Western nationalist leaders?

    To make a joke out of Russia’s gas station economy?

    What?

    Maybe even to lose to Ukraine?

    • Disagree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @Wokechoke
    , @Derer
  4. @Anatoly Karlin

    (3) Things I got wrong:
    * 2-3 weeks to decisively win – though so did most people

    The last one was shared by most analysts as well as very likely many in the Russian government, they evidently thought it would be a recap of Hungary 1956/Czechoslovakia 1968.

    Putin should have sent in 800,000 properly equipped troops then!

    But I get your point. 95% of people thought that Russia would roll it. Including the Russian government, as any honest military observer can tell from their movements, also so did the US and EU intelligence agencies, and most educated commenters.

    Unfortunately for Russia, the remaining 5% included the Ukrainians, who kept getting forgotten about in the lead-up to this war, by both sides, and are even frequently forgotten about a lot now by commenters here.

    Whoever would have guessed that Eastern Slavs, fighting for their homeland, would make formidable and intelligent fighters?

    Also, a test for the honesty, or at least baseline competence, of a pro-Russian observer, is whether they deny the absolute obvious: that Putin thought it would be a cakewalk and that the convoy to Kyiv would essentially be a victory column as the other Russian forces smashed the Ukrainian army in the field. Deny that, and you’re a shill or an idiot. I respect that you don’t. And those who do, don’t even make good propagandists. Anyone who is not in their bubble just thinks they’re insane.

    predicted the Great Bifurcation (currently in progress)

    I no longer think this is likely. This war has changed things. China can’t go full hermit kingdom. Their modern citizens will not want that. They actually admire Europe and European cultures. It would reduce their lives too much. And it seems like no one would join them in their bloc. Xi can crush the cosmopolitan types, but they’ll be a majority if China gets actually rich, and they’ll also be the people most other Chinese aspire to be. Imagine the West, but without the immigrants, and how ridiculously SWPL it would turn out.

    And if China doesn’t make it to proper high developed status, then a bifurcation is even worse for them and so even more unlikely.

    the émigré cosmopolitan Jew inordinately interested in sneakers and YouTube unboxing videos

    I really liked his observation that black Americans are the connoisseur class among Americans, but I think it should be refined to the observation that white Americans have made black Americans a blank screen onto which to project their collective inner child. The child should enjoy presents, be emotionally expressive and generally not be treated too harshly, or have responsibility expected of them. So black Americans then!

    Russia will almost certainly win regardless

    Since Russia is still far from winning, it is extremely unlikely that they are going to win. The balance of force has been swinging to the Ukrainian side and I don’t see how the trend can be reversed. Russia can learn and adapt in the field, but so can Ukraine, and Ukraine now has more troops, quicker swelling numbers and better supply than Russia.

    I just don’t see what Russia can do to affect this horrible calculation. Only fighting in the Donbas was good, but not enough. Even full mobilisation is too late.

    Also, a belated Happy Easter to all!

    Happy Easter! Whatever happens, everything will get better. No one ever really dies, even though every death is a tragedy. On a timeline of eternity, we should all be hopeful.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  5. AP says:
    @Thulean Friend

    If it were a “total slaughter” one would expect Russia to gain more than a handful of villages while losing a few at the same time.

    It seems that Russia is now doing what it should have been doing at the beginning, but from a worse point than at the beginning because it squandered a lot of its elite forces and equipment in the failed attempt to take Kiev and the North and has given Ukraine 2 months to train reserves and accumulate weapons from the West. So now Russia is steadily and slowly advancing in the southeast while bleeding men and equipment which become of progressively worse quality as the war drags on. At some point it will all ground to a halt, the question is where and if Ukraine can regain lands (and how many) after Russia exhausts itself.

  6. Ron Unz says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Kofman has a new episode up, too…I just finished listening to it, and it’s pretty pessimistic on Russia’s chances (barring a general mobilisation, in which all bets are off). I’m about 10 mins into Ritter and it’s the usual “this is a total slaughter, it’s not even a fair fight anymore”.

    Pretty interesting that you get two such completely divergent images.

    Thanks, I’ll listen to it a little later today.

    I don’t have any solid military expertise and I haven’t spent a lot of time trying to follow the details of the conflict, but I’d probably lean strongly towards Ritter’s version. Kofman seems a level-headed fellow, but as far as I can tell he’s a Ukrainian immigrant and a relatively junior policy analyst, lacking any military background or Ph.D., who’s spent his entire career at DC thinktanks. The problem is that if the MSM and the donors are 100% on one side, he’d have enormous problems if he took a different position.

    One advantage of judging rival claims about who’s winning a war is that there’s a very objective reality that will probably become pretty apparent sooner rather than later. It’s not like arguing about what global temperatures will be in 2070.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
  7. @Anatoly Karlin

    a belated Happy Easter to all!

    A belated happy Easter to you sir!

    You left out the Chechen performance art. The meme warfare could use some more attention.

    I recently came across the following and recommend it:

    The History of Esotericism in Soviet Russia in the 1920s–1930s
    Konstantin Burmistrov

    (No internet link but I downloaded it free via academia.)

  8. Mr. Hack says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    By “demons” do you mean the innocent civilians that have perished or had their homes destroyed by “liberators” from the North country? Are you familiar with the other “Russian nationalist” that now has his own blog here at UNZ, Rolo Slavskyi? He seems to be the only Russian nationalist that makes even the smallest modicum of sense from all the rest of the kremlin stooges that flock to UNZ. Boiling down their input they all begin to sound tediously similar to the output of your own hand picked successor at this blog, Gerard. He (Slavskyi) seems to understand a few things and is sharing these ideas and questions here:

    Well, tens of thousands of Ukrainians, who by all rights ought to be pointing their rifles at NATO, are now hunkered down in Donbass instead, and about to be shelled repeatedly into surrender or oblivion by the Russian forces…And even now, the Kremlin and its loathsome PR spokespeople claim that they are only in Ukraine temporarily, to conduct a de-nazification campaign. Not only is this claim bizarre, but what’s worse, people think they might actually mean it. So, after smashing the Ukrainian army and the volunteer battalions, they intend to do what — pull out?… Why then should anyone in Ukraine support the Russian army? So that they can receive a bullet to the head for being collaborators once they’re gone? No wonder Ukrainians are hunkering down and keeping quiet. Why support a military that won’t be there to protect you once they’ve won? After all, genius strategic feint or not, Kiev and the environs around it were abandoned.

    https://www.unz.com/article/the-ukraine-debacle/

    Of course I differ with a lot of his views. But on some things he seems to get it right. Do you think that it’s a good idea to continue pummeling civilian areas in Eastern Ukraine where there are a preponderance of Russian speakers? Apparently, God-Man Putler does….

  9. @AP

    It seems that Russia is now doing what it should have been doing at the beginning, but from a worse point than at the beginning because it squandered a lot of its elite forces and equipment

    ASBMil is admittedly a pro-Russian telegram account, but they tend to be fair in their analysis IMO, and they are admitting that a lot of early Western reports of Russian troops being clueless conscripts was correct. In addition, Russia disproportionately used its worst equipment early on (lots of T-72, few T-90s). That is slowly changing.

    https://t.me/asbmil/1271
    https://t.me/asbmil/1272

    has given Ukraine 2 months to train reserves and accumulate weapons from the West.

    Yes, I agree with this and this is also one of the arguments that Kofman made which was convincing to me. I just don’t think it will be enough to tip the balance. I won’t be boring and claim I’m at equivalent distance between Kofman and Ritter. I still think Ritter is more right and I still think Russia will bring this to a close on favourable terms, but it will be tougher than many assume (I include myself in that group).

    • Replies: @AP
  10. A123 says: • Website
    @Anatoly Karlin

    It really looks like more of a middle case. Neither the Ukie nor Russian maximalists are doing well.
    ___

    If Russia had the capability, launching “Shock & Awe” on Kiev or an adjacent target would have been sensible to break Ukrainian resistance. That they could not do so, points at a serious weakness. The plan for Northern front did not work.

    Realigning to a more compact Eastward facing, provides infantry flanking cover that substantially reduces NLAW risk. It will allow consolidation of Kherson, Kherkiv, Mariupol, and a more or less North/South demarcation line. However, the density required for force protection does not allow the maximalist goal of taking effectively all of Ukraine.
    ____

    On the other side:

    How will Ukrainian forces advance over open ground to recapture lost cities?

    They could not even “press” withdrawing forces departing the Kiev area. The idea of a coordinated “offensive” requiring armor and mechanized infantry does not appear to be available. Almost every Ukrainian win has been “small unit”. That is solid defense, but does not move the ball in the other direction.

    Despite the loss of the Moskva, freighter transit to/from Ukraine is effectively ‘nil’. If Ukraine can harvest enough grain to sell, how are they going to move it? A small portion can go to Poland by rail, but the large MENA buyers, like Egypt, are disconnected. As an effectively land locked country, Ukraine has an economic problem of epic scale.
    ______

    The best solution for Christian Russia and Christian Ukraine is an armistice. Neither side has a clear path to WIN. Both sides will experience a great deal of LOSE-LOSE grief while an accommodation remains out of reach.

    PEACE 😇

  11. Sean says:

    Russia is quite determined to not lose, and the invisible line where they decide to halt the shellacking being administered by Ukraine with American assistance by means of a very big bang is surely getting closer to being crossed all the time. All animals (and a country is a living thing) have a profound advantage on home territory. On the thermonuclear plan, Ukraine and America would cease to have an advantage. The former hasn’t got them and the latter would not use them. ..

    Putin’s actions indicate that he considers Ukraine an existential threat to Russia, so he will stop at nothing to avoid losing. If Russia began using nuclear weapons on the battlefields of Ukraine it would be because Russia was about to lose the conventional war in Ukraine. You certainly cannot fight conventionally against nuclear weapons, and nuclear weapons have no military purpose; wars cannot be fought with them. Is America going take a step into the unknown for the very highest of stakes over Ukraine?

    It seems America’s aim is to totally defeat Russia in Ukraine, yet Putin at the begining denied he will countenance foreign intervention turning the tables on Russia. He to go full thermonuclear rather than be beaten. I note that Putin’s threat to invade Ukraine was not a bluff, though everyone thought it was.

  12. @AP

    The Soviets were outright advancing against Nazi Germany after Stalingrad on all fronts but casualty ratios remained highly lopsided, indeed Germany would have won through banal attrition had the Western Allies not been in play.

    It’s a somewhat similar situation here, except that Ukraine’s mobilization potential is much more constrained due to demographics, ease of emigration, and political system.

    It is not a totalitarian state so it only has perhaps 7M age-appropriate men * 10% suicidally inclined svidomists = 700,000 potential troops who are willing to go fight, at least 10% of that number have already been utilized (KIA/MIA/WIA/POW), to get more you’d need for it to go beyond the inefficient press-gangings (at most) that you have now into full totalitarianism, I mean Kettenhunde, thousands of executions for cowardice and desertion, the entire works like in Germany and the USSR, will Zelensky do that, while I cannot say that would be optimal, it would certainly be very based and glorious

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    , @AP
    , @Wielgus
  13. @Triteleia Laxa

    China can’t go full hermit kingdom. Their modern citizens will not want that. They actually admire Europe and European cultures. It would reduce their lives too much.

    Some rootless coastal cosmopolitans and traitors admire them. Happily Xi is brutally repressing the bananas under the cover of Zero Covid.

    There will be no dawn for them.

    The balance of force has been swinging to the Ukrainian side and I don’t see how the trend can be reversed.

    This is almost certainly incorrect, but the truth of the matter should become clear sooner rather than later.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
  14. S says:

    @ Yellowface Anon

    Russia uses Dugin’s playbook…

    Dugin’s geo-political thesis of land based powers (ie ‘continental’ Russia) being superior to ocean based (ie ‘Atlanticist’ US/UK) is almost a word for word repeat of what appeared in the mid-19th century New Rome which I’ve excerpted below, except he has completely inverted it. So close is the language, I’m tempted to think he may have read the obscure book first before coming up with his own theories.

    Past history would seem to go against Dugin, ie the defeat of land based Napoleon, Hitler, Jefferson Davis, by the Atlanticists UK and, or, US.

    It should be noted in the excerpt below from The New Rome, that while domination of the seas is considered very nice, domination of the air is seen to be far better still.

    ‘Freedom is now limited to the oceanic world, to England and America; Russia, with its continental dependencies, is despotic; it has no ships, and therefore no freedom; no freedom, and therefore no navy; having no navy, it can never do great injury to the seafaring world. But its despotism gives it an army, and its army will protect its despotism. The seafaring nations, on the other hand, have their navy to protect their freedom, but they will never have a large standing army to extend their system. To suppose this, would be to deny every leading characteristic of Americanism. This would keep the two halves of the world in a state of perpetual isolation, did not the navigation of the air restore them to a common element. American air-privateers will be down upon the Russian garrisons — to use our own expressive slang — “like a parcel of bricks”; and the Russian serfs will fasten to their skirts, and be elevated to a share in their liberties.’ The New Rome (1853) – pg 156

    Dugin has purportedly advocated for the message contained in the The Third Empire published in 2006 (see excerpt and link below) regarding a future resurrected imperial Russia, going so far as to say it is an idea that Russia should ‘die for’.

    Indeed!

    As I’ve hypothesized, and something I certainly don’t wish for, there is a possibility that the intent of the New Rome (the US/UK and Western allies) and the Third Rome (Russia and it’s allies) fighting each other in WWIII, is rather than one or the other prevailing, is that they are instead intended to largely destroy each other. This would fit in well with reducing the world’s population to the long declared and preferred 500 million number.

    The destruction of the New Rome and Third Rome (ie Rome’s modern Western and Eastern heirs) could also be seen by some powerful elements of the elites of the Jewish people and their hangers on as a perceived symbolic (and not so symbolic) revenge for the destruction of Jerusalem and its Temple in 70 AD by the original Rome.
    The Arch of Titus

    The Third Empire

    “Just a couple of months ago, a former vice-chancellor of the Russian Duma Mikhail Yuryev published a best-selling novel “The Third Empire.” (…) The present advisor to president Putin, Alexander Dugin, states on the back-cover of the book: ‘This is Russia that one should kill and die for’.

    The bottom two links are to the 1853 map of the United States as the ‘New Rome’ and the hypothesized 2053 map of Russia as the ‘Third Empire’, as they appeared respectively in The New Rome (1853) and The Third Empire (2006).

    Below ‘More’ are examples of Roman commemorative coins minted for 25 years after the fall of Jerusalem and the destruction of the Jewish Temple in 70 AD. They are labeled ‘Judea Capta’ (Judea is Conquered) and ‘Judea Devicta’ (Judea is defeated).

  15. Yevardian says:
    @Ron Unz

    Kofman seems a level-headed fellow, but as far as I can tell he’s a Ukrainian immigrant and a relatively junior policy analyst, lacking any military background or Ph.D., who’s spent his entire career at DC thinktanks. The problem is that if the MSM and the donors are 100% on one side, he’d have enormous problems if he took a different position.

    I’ve since listened to a couple of his interviews now at that link ‘ThuleanFriend’ posted, the site itself obviously has a strong US policy-wonk bias, but I’ve noticed whenever Kofman’s interviewer repeats outside claims or asks certain questions with the flavour of the Russian army ‘on the verge of collapse’ or whatnot, Kofman always quickly shut it down with ‘I’m not interested in rhetoric/the propaganda war’ etc. Perhaps he’s junior without direct military experience, but notice how much less emotional he is than Ritter also. As for the others, they worked in the American military, which works quite a bit differently, and as far as I know, they don’t speak Russian, so I’d take their statements with a grain of salt. What Kofman has been saying sounds a lot closer to Yuri Podolyaka (scrubbed from Youtube a few weeks ago) or Strelkov’s assessments, neither of which could ever be accused of being pro-Ukrainian goverment.

    You mentioned he’s quite reluctant to do any broader geopolitical or diplomatic analysis, but I’d say he’s simply careful to stay within his field of expertise, and ultimately Russian-Ukrainian battlefield performance will largely determine what political decisions will be made anyway.

    Responding to utu’s post from previous thread before the usual arguments and rhetoric on Z-War do their rounds.

    Yevardian’s negative opinion of him seems rather eccentric and is not understandable to me and stating that Russians do the subgenre of ‘romantic literature’ better as very odd unless there are , which I doubt, some obscure Russian writers unknown to the world who are supposed to fit that description. I am afraid that the war time chauvinism taints Yevardian thinking. By the way, D.H. Lawrence knew something about the war time chauvinism as he was a victim of it on account of his German wife.

    I’m not exactly alone in finding Lawrence a poor writer, nothing to do with with ‘wartime thinking’ here. Kangaroo and Chatterly are particularly and impressively bad. As for the genre or topic, no need to dig very deep, Russia has Lermontov, Bunin, Chekhov, Turgenev, Yesenin and Tolstoy wrote about relations between men and women, the various stages of a relationship, and in various psychological forms, with a power and/or subtlety I don’t see matched any English writer I know of. At least not sentimental novels of Hardy or formalism of Meredith and Henry James. Austen basically wrote light comedy of manners and is something else entirely. Perhaps Fitzgerald if not for his alcoholism and self-pity or Salinger if he was interested.

    @German_Reader

    For someone who called me “humorless” earlier in this thread, you don’t seem to have much of an understanding of irony yourself.
    But I suppose the kind of humor enjoyed by Caucasoids is more of the practical kind, like the jokes Stalin used to play on his henchmen.

    Perhaps. Though that German had prefaced that with a conversation about Russia, he had complicated feelings about the country, as Germans often do. Also went on he was pissed about all the immigrants in 2015 and how he voted AFD because of that, it was too obviously sincere to be ironic. Anyway, ‘humourless’ might be harsh, be I meant more about a general outlook on life, rather than getting a particular joke. Even some (most?) genuinely talented comedians can be rather humourless away from the stage, performers who see all of life as a joke like Norm Macdonald are pretty rare.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
    , @Wokechoke
  16. @Anatoly Karlin

    Rather conveniently forgot to mention your proposed own predictions and Putler’s alleged plans about greatly increasing RF population power, while for now it is EU that already got the boost of about 5 million working age european christian people from all UA, but their elder parents were mostly left in captured lands and fight zones.

  17. Ron Unz says:
    @Yevardian

    I’ve noticed whenever Kofman’s interviewer repeats outside claims or asks certain questions with the flavour of the Russian army ‘on the verge of collapse’ or whatnot, Kofman always quickly shut it down with ‘I’m not interested in rhetoric/the propaganda war’ etc.

    Sure, like I said Kofman came across as a very level-headed guy trying to be as objective as possible given his constraints. The problem is I strongly suspect that his DC constraints are pretty severe, so it’s easy to imagine that he’s consciously or unconsciously trimming his views as a consequence, for example not questioning certain sources of information that are widely believed by everyone in his professional circle or that sort of thing. I remember this happened during the lead-up to the Iraq War, and I think the political atmosphere was much less extreme back then.

    Perhaps he’s junior without direct military experience, but notice how much less emotional he is than Ritter also. As for the others, they worked in the American military, which works quite a bit differently, and as far as I know, they don’t speak Russian, so I’d take their statements with a grain of salt.

    Absolutely. Ritter’s far too emotional about all sorts of things, but don’t forget that his career was destroyed by the Neocons, and until this issue suddenly popped up, he’d almost disappeared from public attention. He’s just horrified that America is almost doing an Iraq War II but on a vastly larger scale. Mearsheimer is also fairly emotional, though in a different way. He’d been totally purged but now he’s suddenly become one of the most visible academics on the planet, with something like 40 million views of his lectures, and unsurprisingly he seems extremely happy about his new situation.

    Also, Ritter had actually trained as a Soviet military specialist and been based in Russia doing arms control, so I do think he speaks at least some Russian and his Russia military expertise is probably much stronger than I’d originally assumed.

    • Replies: @Matra
  18. Yevardian says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    It’s a somewhat similar situation here, except that Ukraine’s mobilization potential is much more constrained due to demographics, ease of emigration, and political system.

    Isn’t Russia similarly constrained? It has the same 1990s demographic legacy as Ukraine, and it’s hardly a stranger to skilled emigration either. Why hasn’t actual war been declared so proper mobilisation can done? It honestly seems to me Putin sees the political cost of admitting ‘Special Military Operation’ was totally bungled in it’s opening stages is still too high.
    But at the moment it looks the worst of all possible worlds, full-spectrum sanctions, combined with still limited mobilisation, which since Ukraine put up a stiff fight, has forced Russia to a strategy of artillery obliteration of entire cities and general infrastructure (obviously eliminating any sliver of chance for Ukro-collaboration), due its lack of manpower and morale.

    Russia is hardly a totalitarian state either, don’t forget the war is (by far) most popular amongst the demographics too old to serve anyway, if military necessity forces Putin to call for mass drafting, I think you’d see how unpopular this war could quickly get. If it was done earlier, (i.e. in February) the war might have finished quickly and decisively enough for it not to be an issue. But as usual Putin took half-measures like he does in everything, but now he’s inadvertently taken a massive gamble, I really don’t think things look good.

    Agree that taking just the Donbass and Luhansk, or even anything less than landlocking Ukraine would be phyrric victory at best for Russia, given the now piled up sanctions, war-deaths and diplomatic isolation, but from what I can see it seems the war-aims now have downshifted exclusively to the Donbass. Again, it looks grim… unlike Dmitry or others, I understand from a Russian POV they have to win this war, the event of loss or stalemate will basically destroy Russia as a state.
    Putin expected a short victory expedition, but embroiled Russia into an existential struggle with the entire West.. and still he’s too cautious to take appropriate measures. Not a pleasant result for mild bureaucrat by nature who only took power because Yeltsin’s ‘Family’ got paranoid Primakov would investigate them and their criminal buddies if he got elected.

  19. @Yevardian

    It depends on casualty ratios, if it’s 3:1 or better in Russia’s favor (videos from Donbass suggest that to be the case) then Russia can keep fighting indefinitely without mobilization in light of its much larger population (152M vs. 28M now in their current de facto borders) and munitioning capacity (larger than Ukraine’s by two orders of magnitude).

    Donbass isn’t Kiev. Pace of advance is slow (“snail’s war”) not a costly blitz; local population is much more pro-Russian; terrain is less wooded and not marshy (though urbanized). Force concentrations are far denser, so the Ukrainians can’t harry the Russian rear like they could in the north. Most importantly, it’s at the tail end of Ukrainian supply lines and farthest from NATO ELINT assets.

    Attrition of Ukrainian military capital is extreme and casualty ratios can thus be expected to become even more lopsided over time (memes aside, light infantry does not fare well against armor and drone-targetted artillery, as casual perusal of conflicted-related Telegram channels suggests). My read is that having failed to achieve a quick knockout blow, the strategy now is to bleed out the Ukrainian military in Donbass. There’s no particular hurry, what the West could afford to spare has already been sent, and it will take a year for them to revvy up production. By that time, the Ukrainian military will be a spent and demoralized force, at least unless Zelensky goes totalitarian.

    ***

    acer120 independently came to a similar conclusion I discovered: https://acer120.livejournal.com/188845.html

    Стране огромной предложено вставать разве что в очередь за сахаром из-за очередной истерии пенсионеров. 150-миллионное государство буднично воюет профессионалами статистически незначимого в масштабах нации количества. За счет превосходства в военно-техническом развитии и экономической устойчивости. И даже приграничное положение и чудовищный масштаб территории спецоперации (Сравните Украину с той же Сирией или там тем более с Чечней) особо не сказывается на мирной жизни России – на 30ть какой-то день военных действий два вертолета пролетели до Белгорода и действительно ударили по нефтебазе какой-то, еще сбивали ракеты над Таганрогом, над Должанской что-то падало – на мирной жизни тыловых русских чеченская война с ее терроризмом явно сказывалась куда сильнее.

    The break with the West is clearly long-term.

    My hard prediction is that Russia will take Novorossiya at a minimum and possibly all of Ukraine. The fighting may continue well into 2023.

    • Replies: @Sean
    , @Mikhail
    , @Wielgus
  20. songbird says:

    Milk cows have been bred to produce substantially more milk than an aurochs would. 10x as much would be a fair guess, as that is about the variance between cattle breeds.

    Meanwhile, captive poisonous snakes used in anti-venom production have already been bred to produce 5x, 6x, or 7x the venom of wild snakes. Perhaps, more, in some localities. (though it is in dispute, as some say it is not a genetic change, but due to the regular milking)

  21. @Yevardian

    Why hasn’t actual war been declared so proper mobilisation can done?

    Quite likely being a chekist Putin simply fears having too large of a military – just look at his mindset when called UA military to overthrow Zelensky, no much doubt he views his own army of potentially being capable to do the same.

    Mobilization means not only expansion of common infantry, leading cadre numbers will also have to increase, while prechecking of loyalty and controls cannot be easily achieved in a haste of war.

  22. Sean says:
    @Yevardian

    Putin expected a short victory expedition, but embroiled Russia into an existential struggle with the entire West.. and still he’s too cautious to take appropriate measures.

    Vietnam almost tore America apart because it was fought with drafted soldiers. Half a million was not enough to win there and would not be in Ukraine,

    Putin expected a short victory expedition, but embroiled Russia into an existential struggle with the entire West.. and still he’s too cautious to take appropriate measures. Not a pleasant result for mild bureaucrat by nature who only took power because Yeltsin’s ‘Family’ got paranoid Primakov would investigate them and their criminal buddies if he got elected.

    I have Stuermer’s book on Putin. It was Yeltsin who appointed Putin as his successor, and in my opinion it was probably a act of vengeance by Yeltsin against the US for Nato expansion (the Americans were aghast at the former KGB officer). However, the Chechen apartment block terrorist attacks were what made Putin electable.

    I understand from a Russian POV they have to win this war, the event of loss or stalemate will basically destroy Russia as a state.

    I agree the leadership felt they had to launch this war because Ukraine was an existential threat, the proof of that is they acted on the belief. Nato do not want Russia to see it as an existential threat because in that case Russia will certainly be willing to take the war to a higher and unknown plane. There is no experience or theory to help Western strategists comprehend the likelihood of Putin going full battlefield thermonuclear, od what might follow a first use by Russia of nuclear weapon(s) on battlefields in Ukraine. Because Ukraine is so dependent on the US, and it will supply advanced offensive weapons only in the last extremity, Ukraine will try and convince America that Russia is heading for victory, thereby leading to a deluge of US weapons on Ukraine, and the Russian army in Ukraine getting seven bells knocked out it before being driven back.

  23. songbird says:

    Watched part of a segment of DW, where they were doing man-on-the-street interviews in Berlin to get a response about sending heavy weapons to the Ukraine.

    Three quick interviews. Second one was an English-speaking African.

  24. Sean says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    America is using WW2 following from Munich as the mode, so Ukraine will get stronger unless something is done to make the US take fright. Russia is not going to gain at the by a long lasting convention level of the Ukrainian conflict The only advantage to Russia of it lasting until 2023 is the Ukrainians governments ban on the sale of alcohol for the duration might begin to weaken the Ukrainian government’s popularity it like it did in Russia when Tsar Nicholas II banned vodka sales for the duration of World War I,

  25. Mikhail says: • Website

    Rejected!

    https://www.rt.com/russia/554640-moldova-transnistria-kiev-offer/

    Same thing happened with a Kiev regime overture to Georgia.

  26. AP says:
    @Thulean Friend

    a lot of early Western reports of Russian troops being clueless conscripts was correct.

    Lots were, they were also expecting a quick occupation and sent in Rosgvardia and military police who were slaughtered.

    But they also sent in and lost many elite paratroopers.

    “has given Ukraine 2 months to train reserves and accumulate weapons from the West.”

    Yes, I agree with this and this is also one of the arguments that Kofman made which was convincing to me. I just don’t think it will be enough to tip the balance.

    It depends on what Russia does. Full mobilization and over a million soldiers? Yes, it won’t be enough.

    But what Russia has now (current troops, plus a new batch of regularly scheduled conscripts/recruits)? It should be.

    • Agree: Yevardian
  27. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Anatoly Karlin

    My hard prediction is that Russia will take Novorossiya at a minimum and possibly all of Ukraine. The fighting may continue well into 2023.

    What territory will this Novorossiya constitute? Only everything east of the Dnieper?

  28. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    700,000 potential troops who are willing to go fight, at least 10% of that number have already been utilized (KIA/MIA/WIA/POW)

    Do you have any evidence that Ukraine has lost 70,000 troops (which would mean about 25k killed)? My evidence is admittedly anecdotal, but it doesn’t seem that high (I would have heard of more deaths/injuries I think). Ukraine probably has about 300,000 troops at the moment so that means 1 in 4 have already been killed or wounded. Doesn’t seem realistic.

    The military expert commenter Twinkie estimated about 8,000 Russian KIA a couple of weeks ago so it would be 10k or so by now:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/bucha-more-like-the-ss-or-the-lapd/#comment-5283111

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/bucha-more-like-the-ss-or-the-lapd/#comment-5283351

    :::::::::::::::::::

    Unless Russia goes WMD (an arms dealer in Poland suggested to me a high possibility of this) or full mobilization I don’t see Russia moving beyond Donbas. Kharkiv is 3 times the size of Mariupol and Odessa twice the size.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  29. @AP

    My analysis is based on what one might expect from a confrontation of two sides with comparable combat effectiveness and manpower in which one has much more artillery and drones, and an air force, and one with much fewer of them, and with the concrete evidence of who is advancing and who is not (all major Ukrainian offensives, e.g. in Kherson, have failed to make significant progress). Collaboration from Telegram videos. E.g., just from today: https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/32420 I saw another video from Donbass yesterday, not posting as it was much more gory. In short, the Ukrainians were posting a lot of destroyed and abandoned vehicles during the first three weeks, but destroyed vehicles do not always even translate into corpses (many cases of double counting and false attribution established wrt Onyx by Armchair Warlord on Twitter); these have dwindled since the retreat from Kiev. The Russian videos show a lot of corpses.

    The Ukrainians being captured now look older and more worn out. https://twitter.com/gbazov/status/1519006028465115141 This is what one might expect from an army that is getting ground up. (Incidentally, no or negligible cases of Russians surrendering since the retreat from Kiev).

    As I said, I think casualties around Kiev actually were 1:1, and indeed must have accounted even to date for the bulk of (non-LDNR) Russian casualties in Ukraine. Given the differences described above, they will necessarily be much more favorable to Russia in Donbass, and around Kherson (where they are defending).

    Unless Russia goes WMD (an arms dealer in Poland suggested to me a high possibility of this) or full mobilization I don’t see Russia moving beyond Donbas. Kharkiv is 3 times the size of Mariupol and Odessa twice the size.

    Russian mobilization will get the job done quicker, and as such will ironically be much less painful for Ukraine.

    Cynically, but understandably, Putin after Kiev has decided to conduct the war in a way that brutally attritions Ukraine, while imposing minimal costs on Russian society (well, beyond easy access to some Western brands). Slow, plodding, artillery-heavy, casualty-light advances means that the inflow of volunteers is always sufficient to keep the Russian forces fresh and replenished, while Ukrainians just die in very large numbers in the Donbass.

    It ultimately depends on the Ukrainians how long they want to or are willing to stretch this out for. Could be half a year, could be a year, could even be 2-3 years, if Zelensky goes into Solana López mode.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    , @Ron Unz
    , @AP
  30. sher singh says:

    • Replies: @Yevardian
  31. Mikhail says: • Website

    Among the highlights, Biden’s weltanschauung, the possible ramification of a hypothetical 2024 Republican administration and the faulty Kiev regime narrative.

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/28042022-us-options-on-russia-ukraine-oped/

  32. Guest2022 says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    3) Things I got wrong:
    * 2-3 weeks to decisively win – though so did most people

    Why are you lying?

    You said “days not weeks” in one tweet and in another said “hours”…

  33. Yevardian says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Cynically, but understandably, Putin after Kiev has decided to conduct the war in a way that brutally attritions Ukraine, while imposing minimal costs on Russian society (well, beyond easy access to some Western brands). Slow, plodding, artillery-heavy, casualty-light advances means that the inflow of volunteers is always sufficient to keep the Russian forces fresh and replenished, while Ukrainians just die in very large numbers in the Donbass.

    Question here. Given such massive annihilation of the country’s entire infrastructure along much of the best of Ukrainian youth, even assuming attainment maximal military objectives, was this war really worth it? Reconstruction will (conservatively) cost tens of billions of dollars (don’t know how type scientific notation required for googles of roubles required).

    It ultimately depends on the Ukrainians how long they want to or are willing to stretch this out for. Could be half a year, could be a year, could even be 2-3 years, if Zelensky goes into Solana López mode.

    3 years? Jesus. Pretty horrifying prospect.
    Don’t forget that at this point the West doesn’t even need to pretend it’s doing anything other than stoking brushfires across the Caucasus and Central Asia while this goes on. Or the impact weathervane ‘friends’ like Turkey or Iran (perhaps even China, if PajeetPerspective is right) could have on Russia’s strategic position as well. Iranian media in particular has began to cautiously rumour hope about being able escape sanctions, if Europe stops taking Russian oil it’s not as if they’ll have much choice but to go to Iran to stopgap the shortfall. Turkey will probably test what strength Russia has in Syria or Armenia too, very easy to see how ugly that could get.

    Again, understandable any ethnic Russian should feel blackmailed into uncomfortably standing behind Z-War (given the apocalyptic chain of events with at least 33% chance of panning out if they lose) but could you at least admit this war (or rather, the scale of war you wanted, careful what you wish for) was a mistake from a national interest if not a humanitarian POV?

  34. songbird says:

    I disagree with Denmark’s policies in a lot of ways, but, based on the current low standards within the West, they are pretty impressive. Current plans are to open up a jail in Kosovo to house criminal migrants, before deporting them.

    Is there any way that Sweden or Germany can be placed into receivership, and ruled by the Danes? At a bare minimum, Schleswig-Holstein should be given back to them. In time, perhaps, they could takeover Hamburg, and remediate it, by deporting all the Greens to a place where solar energy is more practical.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  35. Yevardian says:
    @sher singh

    What’s your point? My family just didn’t have the time the insular, gossipy, resentful and backbiting nature of western emigre communities, they (regretfully) didn’t see any bright future in the post-USSR world and wanted us to assimilate successfully.
    That doesn’t mean you can’t speak your language and take pride in your history and culture at home (there I disagree with Mikel, especially considering his language is both difficult, unique and endangered), but when you move to another country, you adapt to the place that hosted you, not like some typical ungrateful Indian leftist weed whining about colonialism and racism (or in your case, maliciously enjoying the destruction of your host, like some parasite) whilst living better than you ever could at home.
    Thanks for reminding me why I can’t stand Indians, it was starting to fade since I got away from seeing them everyday.

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @sher singh
    , @Mikel
  36. Guest2022 says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Come to think of it, Karlin has a pretty good track record of predicting events which are short-term in nature with a very limited, defined time-frame (e.g. Trump’s election, Russia’s invasion) but whose long-term analytical abilities are poor (got China badly wrong, predicted America’s imminent demise back in 2010, misunderstood Putin’s aims, shilled Peak Oil for years before he quietly dropped it and so on, and so forth). I think I’m the inverse.

    He didn’t predict Trump’s election victory. He got that wrong as well:

    I spent the election roundup drinking at a London School of Economics student common room. I am pretty sure that I and the Russian student who invited me were the only Trump supporters there out of 30 or 40 people. This is not that surprising when one considers that Trump Derangement Syndrome is universal throughout Yurop and Britbongistan, and furthermore, that this was: (a) London; (b) millennials; (c) students; (d) at a pretty elite institution, which made for a quadruple whammy. It was all good though since I got to feel like the physical embodiment of trollface.jpg.

    Though I do regret not sticking to my guns and continuing to insist on a Trump victory as I had been doing a couple of months previously, I am nonetheless very happy to have been wrong. The bankers might not be so happy, but who cares.

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/trump-train-converges-to-c/

    As recent as December 2021 (and probably also January) he denied Russia would invade Ukraine:

    He made his prediction in February when the Russian military build-up near the Russo-Ukrainian border was most noticeable. A lot of people at this time predicted an invasion when this happened – it was pretty obvious. So Karlin’s only successful prediction was the most obvious one, everything else he has gotten wrong but now lies about his incorrect predictions.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  37. Guest2022 says:

    Perhaps someone here can also explain Anatoly Karlin’s erratic change in views.

    He was a in 2016-2017* a Trump supporter, wore a MAGA hat and was pro-West to the extent he said he wanted to teach/spread American ‘alt-right’ ideology to Russian nationalists. Now though he is claiming to be anti-West on his social media.

    Is this because of the sanctions by US and most of Europe imposed on Russia?

    * He in fact supported and endorsed Trump as recent as 2020-
    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/habbening-us-elections-2020/

  38. @Guest2022

    Is this the ODS freak again? https://encyclopediadramatica.online/Oliver_D._Smith How is life going down in mom’s basement?

    Here is my Metaculus record, assigning very high chances by January (Metaculus itself was way ahead of the curve itself):

    Within two days, moreover:

    ***

    Thulean Fraud probably misremembered, I got 2016 wrong like most (but more right than most as default opinion was to not give Trump any chance at all).

    However, I did predict 2020 almost perfectly, calling all but two states and was off by just 0.4% points regarding the combined results of Biden and Trump. https://www.unz.com/akarlin/results-us-elections-2020-predictions/

    Virtually all my Corona predictions came to pass as well of course.

  39. Perhaps someone here can also explain Anatoly Karlin’s erratic change in views.

    Why yes, it is.

    Imagine how pathetic a creature one must be to trawl into a blog I’m no longer even the author of within a few hours of me commenting here for the first time in more than a month.

    Granted given the entity in question looks like this I can understand why stalking me, Emil, and a few others is the highlight and passion of its stunted life…

  40. @Yevardian

    … was this war really worth it?

    I am sure that history will assess a victorious war positively on account for arguments I have already made here and elsewhere, Putin will be hailed as one of Russia’s greatest leaders.

    Obviously I or at least my reputation and status will not survive a lost war any more so than Putinism if not the Russian Federation itself, if I turn out to be catastrophically wrong on this, I already said I will permanently abandon all political and related commentary given that it turned out to be so negative value added. But “if” is the operative word here.

  41. songbird says:
    @Yevardian

    Or the impact weathervane ‘friends’ like Turkey or Iran

    I’m no expert on the Middle East, but it is hard for me to see Iran as a straw blowing in the wind. They’ve been under US sanctions, longer than most people here (as I presume) have been alive, which I think reflects on the power structures of both countries.

    If the EU needs more oil from Iran, then, IMO, they’re probably going to need to buy it, anyway, without strong-arming it. Or they may go back to Russia. But according to Zeihan, Russia’s capacity to pump is going to breakdown due to cold weather and backpressure, due to lack of demand, and the EU is fucked, if they change their minds too late.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  42. Ron Unz says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    As I said, I think casualties around Kiev actually were 1:1, and indeed must have accounted even to date for the bulk of (non-LDNR) Russian casualties in Ukraine.

    Since you’ve obviously been following this conflict in great detail and prefer quantitative analysis and predictions, I’m curious what your estimate would be of current Russian KIAs.

    The claims I’ve seen made are enormously wide, ranging from seemingly ridiculous Ukrainian figures to the official totals last released by the Russian government a few weeks ago. Similarly, the commenters on this website have produced widely divergent estimates.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  43. Yevardian says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Well, I’d say it takes a certain amount of bravery to self-appoint for such a potential suicide mission, so good luck? I guess. Honestly to me all potential outcomes of this war look pretty awful.

    Anyway, I strongly disagree with your outlook at this point, but just to bury the hatchet, I don’t think I did more than ‘agree’ with some post denouncing you for mocking those who had concerns that some shitty documentary could clearly appeal to pedophiles. I didn’t agree with the post actually accused you of one, so I changed it.
    The other comment was more my opinion of discord userbase in general and wasn’t directly targeted at you.

    Going to that Sinkh’s post, and I don’t mean this disparagingly, but you are kind of a poster-child for what happens when children grow up in a foreign land, but their parents (presumably, judging from your accent in English) aren’t interested in assimilating. Certainly I would be far unhappier if my identity stemmed primarily from my unlucky country’s ethnicity.
    Anyway, Our Benevolent Overlord is clearly keeping the door open for you, it’s really up to you if you want to resume blogging properly instead of wasting time on Twitter (matter of time before you’re banned anyway), certainly a ton of major ‘happenings’ imminent.

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
  44. Beckow says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Reputation is based on whether one understands what is going on – not on whether his wishes come true. This war is for all marbles and looks unstoppable – the post-war world will be so different that early expectations will seem like child’s play. Both sides are committed, both sides are strong and have an almost endless way to escalate. It is impossible to predict a new world. Only fools can see what will happen clearly and they are hard to understand.

    Solano Lopez was a fascinating guy, the most interesting things about the catastrophic Paraguayan war against everybody was that after they lost 90% of their men, the society recovered within a generation – women were left mostly untouched and did their child-bearing roles by generously sharing the surviving men. It is a window into our deep past and an affirmation of the essential redundancy of most men. Maybe that’s why Zelensky is grinding them down with no mercy, nobody needs them.

    I knew a girl from Paraguay who had a medallion with Lopez, she claimed he was revered because of his stubborn loyalty to his nation. The dead men were forgotten, the women looked towards the future, as always.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  45. Wokechoke says:

    2/3 Kings and Generals…after losing all his his crack troops in Poltava, Charles of Sweden hides out in Moldavia in Ottoman custody…Sweden crumbles as a great power while Denmark, Russia and Prussia flex their powers. Peter builds a Navy and a Russian expeditionary force shows up in the North Sea chasing desperate Swedes.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
  46. Wokechoke says:
    @Yevardian

    Waugh is consistently good. A Handful of Dust is an underrated book in his catalog. Sword of Honour series is also remarkable when you get to Yugoslavia.

    One other note worthy is Waugh in Abyssinia. An account of the Italian invasion of Ethiopia. the last time the Fascist idea of colonizing Africa with white settlers was hip. He rarely wrote a bad line.

  47. Ron Unz says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Kofman has a new episode up, too…I just finished listening to it, and it’s pretty pessimistic on Russia’s chances (barring a general mobilisation, in which all bets are off).

    Well, just to get both sides, I listened to the entire Kofman podcast, and didn’t find him all that persuasive.

    Just as you suggested, he seems to be convinced that Russia has suffered a severe defeat so far, with heavy losses, and the current push is Russia’s last effort. He even seemed to think that the Ukrainians might be able to launch a powerful counter-attack in the near future, defeat the Russians and drive them out of the Donbas region. I’m very, very skeptical.

    My impression—just an impression—is that the Ukrainians have minimal surviving operational armor and air power. Since their side totally controls the propaganda-war and Tweets so heavily, I asked the pro-Ukrainians here if they could find any visual evidence that the Ukrainians have any surviving tank units. Maybe a Tweet showing a 30 tank counter-attack by the Ukrainians and there wasn’t anything. The Ukrainians started off with thousands of tanks, so that seems like pretty strong evidence to me.

    Kofman talked about NATO reequipping the Ukrainians with powerful forces, but I think Ritter is correct that there just isn’t time for that to have any effect. The MoA blogger, who has a German military background, also pointed out that it would take many months of training for totally new equipment to be usable by the Ukrainians.

    It really would be petty interesting to hear Kofman debate Ritter, and I’m surprised that no one has tried to arrange something like that. But as of now, I think Ritter is probably correct.

    However, here’s the crucial point, as demonstrated during the Iraq War. If Kofman took Ritter’s positions, he’d soon be fired and become totally unemployable, regardless of whether or not he was proven right. But even if Ritter turns out to be 100% correct and Kofman 100% wrong, Kofman will still have his job since everyone else in his industry had said the same thing.

    • Agree: Mikhail, Thulean Friend
    • Replies: @AP
    , @Wokechoke
    , @Yevardian
    , @Dmitry
  48. S says:

    @ Songbird

    The Indian proposed that Putin satisfy Russia’s geostrategic and demographic weaknesses by pursuing the easier course of adopting the Western strategy of importing millions of Indians and teaching them Russian.

    The Indian internalized the treatment his people were receiving at the hands of the British Empire, ie Indians being seen as a source of ‘cheap labor’.

    Anyhow, it’s all the same stuff as was being done in the 19th century, the wage slavery (ie the so called ‘cheap labor’/’mass immigration’ system) and promotion of drugs (the Opium Wars) to cause societal breakdown whilst making a pretty profit, etc. The difference being then they didn’t know about Pavlovian conditioning…ie positive reinforcement via the corporate mass media. They were thus a lot more open and blunt about what they were doing.

    Race was openly acknowledged then as was the genocidal effects upon it of wage slavery (ie cheap labor/mass immigration). You want someone to use drugs, you force them to at gunpoint as was done by the British Empire to the Chinese in the two Opium Wars fought against them.

    However, they’ve realized since then it’s better to deny race exist at all, especially to those being genocided via ‘mixing’ due to the importation of the so called ‘cheap labor’. [Ignorance is bliss!] And rather than using guns and cannons to enforce drug use, which creates its own resistance, it’s better to sell people on drug use via the mass media as ‘hip, cool, with it’ as was done in the 1960’s in the United States and Western Europe. [Catch more flies with honey than with vinegar!]

    If you have the time, you may find the articles below of interest.

    The top hathitrust article linked below shows the true ugly face of multi-culturalism. It is a Sept, 1851 London Times editorial, such editorials long being seen as a mouthpiece for official British government thought regarding policy, entitled ‘The American Minister in Ireland’. It regards the then US ambassador to the UK Abbott Lawrence (a Massachusetts textile factory magnate and founder of Lawrence ‘Immigrant City’, Mass) and his visit to Ireland. It’s declared that due specifically to their (the Irish people’s) enmasse predation as wage slaves (ie ‘cheap labor’) to the United States that the Irish people will be ‘known no more’. The replacement population of imported immigrants mixing with the remnant indigenous Irish is described as being ‘more mixed, more docile’, and ‘which can submit to a master.’ This I believe demonstrates in reality the utter contempt held toward ‘immigrants’ and the resulting ‘mixed’ populations. They see them as slaves.

    The article immediately below that, entitled ‘Extermination and Vengeance’, is from 1847. The Irish entirely concurred with the London Times assessment about the genocidal effects of the ‘cheap labor’ system, calling it ‘extermination’. ‘Vengeance’ refers to members of the British aristocracy in Ireland being shot for promoting the idea of the enmasse predation of the Irish as ‘cheap labor’ to the United States as a good thing for the Irish.

    Neither of these aforementioned articles say a word about the Famine. They are specifically and only speaking about the genocidal effects of wage slavery, ie the ‘cheap labor’/’mass immigration’ system. I’m sure the Irish were open to legitimate help, but they decidedly did not see this predation as ‘helping’ them, but saw it as destroying them instead.

    The third article from 1850, ‘American Factories in Ireland’, is about moving US manufacturing plants to Ireland. If you can’t get enough of the slaves to come to you, you go directly to where the slaves are.

    The fourth article, ‘Chinamen Out of China’, is from a Spring, 1874 edition of The Pall Mall Gazette of London. It laments specifically that ‘race’ is impeding the enmasse predation of China as wage slaves, ie people were succesfully protesting in America, Australia, and Canada, etc, their genocide by being mixed away due to the sociopathic greed of a few.

    As an aside, an ulterior motive of the Opium Wars may have been to ‘open up’ China for wage slavery (ie cheap labor’) exploitation.

    A powerful case could be made that the sole reason for the ideology of Multi-culturalism, with it’s attached anti-race campaign euphemistically called ‘anti-racism’, was, and is, to condition people to accept the genocidal, nation destroying, and wage depressing, wage slavery (cheap labor/mass immigration) system as good for them, rather than the utter poison it is. Though to be sure, I think there is a bit more to it than that.

    [The hathitrust articles are free. The Spectator of London articles are free for a month after signing up.]

    https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=coo.31924079600965&view=1up&seq=296&skin=2021

    http://archive.spectator.co.uk/article/20th-november-1847/12/extermination-and-vengeance

    http://archive.spectator.co.uk/article/22nd-june-1850/15/american-factories-in-ireland

    https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=chi.55223460&view=1up&seq=136&skin=2021

    • Thanks: songbird
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  49. @Anatoly Karlin

    I was thinking something more along the line of Putin as star fleet commander and Azov Battalion as Klingons.

  50. AP says:
    @Ron Unz

    Maybe a Tweet showing a 30 tank counter-attack by the Ukrainians and there wasn’t anything.

    They weren’t doing that in the beginning either, because there aren’t the circumstances to warrant that. Ukraine just got replenished with ~200 tanks from Poland (among other countries).

    it would take many months of training for totally new equipment to be usable by the Ukrainians

    Correct, but not so for the flood of Soviet equipment that Ukraine is getting. Ukrainians are getting trained on the Western arms and in the months until they will get up to par on them, they are being resupplied with the Soviet equipment they already know.

    • Replies: @Sean
  51. Wokechoke says:

    before Azovstal there was Charles XII trapped in his mansion at Bender, Moldavia after he got caned in Poltava by Peter the Great. The Siege of the Caroleans at Bender is instructive about getting to deeply fond of the Black Sea if you are a Nordic Superman like Karl XII. Azov even gets a mention in the battles between the Sultan and Czar.

  52. Wokechoke says:
    @Beckow

    I expect to see Hunter Biden defending his investments in some bunker in Odessa by the end of this.

  53. Wokechoke says:
    @Ron Unz

    The idea is to rearm the Ukies like the Germans did the Croats in the final months of the conflicts in Krajina in the Former Yugoslavia. At some point NATO will provide volunteer pilots doing airstrikes covering Ukies in tanks.
    Germany reequipped the Croatians in the late 1990s. Serbs were defeated with that combination.

    The Russians might be able to counter this if they have a bottomless well of volunteer Chinese pilots for example. If the Chinese chicken out Russia will be hard pressed.

    ww3 is here.

  54. 2 months in and these threads are still largely useless for any real discussion of the most important war in 80 years. in the one place on the internet that i would have thought would be the most important venue to discuss it. instead we got the lowest signal to noise ratio threads in the history of unz.com.

    thank goodness for twitter and other internet services. indeed, this war shows the value of twitter, and that it WILL NOT become myspace after all the leftist political people take their ball and go home. subject matter experts in dozens of non-political fields post their thoughts on twitter, and they aren’t going to leave just because elon owns it now. the network effect matters. so i’ll continue to be able to see what tank experts think, jet experts, submarine experts, and so on.

    mainly what will happen is that mediocre hive mind leftist NPCs, who contribute nothing to anything, will slowly drift away to leftist echo chamber sites, the same way CNN devolved over 20 years into being completely irrelevant. leaving the network effect of non-political twitter intact.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
  55. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    My analysis is based on what one might expect from a confrontation of two sides with comparable combat effectiveness and manpower in which one has much more artillery and drones, and an air force, and one with much fewer of them, and with the concrete evidence of who is advancing and who is not (all major Ukrainian offensives, e.g. in Kherson, have failed to make significant progress).

    Ukraine had better combat effectiveness than Russia, around Kiev. Their infantry is better trained and better armed than the opposing Russian infantry, and there was enough cover that Russian air dominance wasn’t a decisive factor. This would be true throughout western Ukraine and Kiev, and in urban areas like Kharkiv and Odessa and Dnipro. It does not apply to the southern plains. Donbas has a few hills but is also not conducive to infantry.

    As I said, I think casualties around Kiev actually were 1:1

    It may have even been better for Ukraine.

    In this war the Russian offenses around Kiev, Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv failed and resulted in total withdrawal. Russia has been successful in the less urban South (the grabbed most of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts but stopped at the city of Mikolayiv and did not try to seize Zaporizhia itself) and in the Donbas where they are making slow but steady progress. So overall due to the withdrawal in the north, Russia controls about half the total territory now that it did 3 weeks into the war.

    Here are Ukrainian forests and hills:

    I would expect battles in the forested north and in the hilly center and mountainous west to be more like around Kiev.

    (many cases of double counting and false attribution established wrt Onyx by Armchair Warlord on Twitter

    Putin after Kiev has decided to conduct the war in a way that brutally attritions Ukraine, while imposing minimal costs on Russian society (well, beyond easy access to some Western brands). Slow, plodding, artillery-heavy, casualty-light advances means that the inflow of volunteers is always sufficient to keep the Russian forces fresh and replenished, while Ukrainians just die in very large numbers in the Donbass.

    That’s certainly how it seems to be now, but thinking that this is how it is going to go long-term assumes that Ukrainians will not find a way to adjust and will fight the same way week after week, conveniently taking casualties at a great disadvantage. They may, but usually in war adjustments are made.

    • Replies: @A123
  56. Sean says:
    @AP

    Withdrawal from around Kiev probably indicates a sea change in Russian methods away from attempting a real win to a downbeat unwillingness to press the action. They are now going for a slow-mo multi micro offensives strategy in which the ‘big push’ never comes but Ukraine suffers interminable tiny defeats in meticulously planned operations while a rise in the cost of living for Westerners, people going hungry in the Third World, and boring news from Ukraine erodes Western populations’ willingness to continue with open ended support of Ukraine.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  57. nsa says:

    Bier Tisch Kommandant NSA here with a few questions:
    1) Why hasn’t the west ukie power grid been taken down by missile attacks on the major substations?
    No modern society functions in the dark: no internet, no communications, no commerce, no transportation, no free porn, no more 200 trivial text messages a day In 3 weeks they would be surrendering or eating each other. Flooding the vile euroweanies with another 10 to 15 million refugees would be a bonus.
    2) Why are the Ruskies still supplying power to the Baltic State electrical grids? Cast them into the dark also.
    3) Why are the Ruskies still supplying nat gas to their nato enemies?
    Is this a real war or some kind of grotesque kabuki theater? Maybe the ukie nazis do have a few stray nukes and a delivery system, so the carnage is being kept conventional?

    • LOL: Yellowface Anon
  58. Since we in the general public have limited information on what is going on in the battle zones of this war. The verdict on who is winning this war is still not certain. So it might help our analysis of what is actually going on by looking at what we do know.

    This war has two fronts, the battlefield and the economic sphere. In the economic sphere, we know for certain that an important goal of the US was to crash the ruble. In fact, Biden bragged about turning the ruble into rubble. On the ruble part of the economic war the US has failed miserably. Indeed, the ruble is now at a one year high against the dollar. And Putin has shown that he can almost set the value of the ruble to whatever value he chooses.

    And while it is tough to observe the battlefield, it is easy to observe the behavior of the leaders involved. Perhaps, by observing the leaders we can gain clues about what is happening on the battlefield. Which leader is behaving as though the war is going his way? Obviously, it is Putin. Putin has so many cards that he has not yet seen the need to play, that it is hard to believe that he is losing this war. Consider that he has not even bothered to shut off the electricity or water to Kiev and Lviv. And it wasn’t until yesterday that Russia saw the need to even partly decommission Ukraine’s railroad network.

    I believe that if Putin felt that Russia was losing this war, he would surely have attacked the infrastructure of Ukraine, especially that of Western Ukraine. He could have easily shut down Lviv’s and Kiev’s electrical grids and their water supplies. He could have interdicted food supplies by bombing roads, bridges and railways. He could use missiles to strike government buildings in populated areas of these cities. And if a few of these missiles “went astray” (like one of the US’s missiles did when it hit the Chinese embassy in Serbia) in, say, Lviv and hit civilian areas, this could lead to a general panic. The combined effects of these actions would surely lead to many, perhaps millions more refugees leaving Ukraine for Poland, Romania, etc.. This would disadvantage Ukraine and NATO. Yet, apparently, Putin has not seen the need to further disadvantage Russia’s opponents in this manner.

    Contrast Putin’s actions with those of the leaders of Ukraine. Zelensky has been crying of the need for more tanks and weapons. Oleksiy Arestovych, one of Zelensky’s top advisors has made similar pleas, saying, “We do not have any heavy weaponry. We need it.” Scott Ritter described these types of requests as akin to asking NATO to replace the army that Russia has already destroyed.

    So, we may not yet know exactly what is happening on the battlefield. But we do know that Putin is behaving like he is winning and Zelensky is behaving like he is losing.

  59. @songbird

    The sanctions had been tolerable for Iran, much closer to the extent China is sanctioned now, and they could eek out decent growth until 2011/12, which is the year they were as extensively sanctioned as North Korea. Both facts show in the GDP numbers.

  60. @songbird

    deporting all the Greens to a place where solar energy is more practical

    We might get to the point in decades when North Africa will be on the same functionality as Europe if not more, and emigration southwards happen voluntarily, similar to how Northern Europeans were moving to Spain and Portugal before the Eurozone crisis. But North Africa is also migrant exporter to Southern Europe to and you prefer racialism.

    • Replies: @songbird
  61. @S

    This reads crypto-Marxist from the ethno-cultural labor side, and this is a weird complement.

    • Replies: @S
  62. Mikhail says: • Website

    I’ll take Tex Bentley over the below Texan:

  63. Mikhail says: • Website

    No disagreement here:

  64. Yevardian says:
    @Ron Unz

    So I saw that video, with Ritter concluding that the war will last ‘another month, maybe a little more’.. I’m as open to hearing all sides of the conflict as anyone, but in conjuction with his February 24 predictions of ‘Desert Storm 2.0’, I don’t think I can take him very seriously. Notice Karlin, bullish as he is, is grimly forecasting 2-3 years of warfare.
    Again, as I said earlier, the serious problems Russia will soon face aren’t even so much the war itself, as the effects it dragging on will have, particularly in post-Soviet space and the Middle-East, where Russian priorities and projection abilities will obviously be elsewhere.

    Though on the other hand, I noticed Europe is buckling *already* over buying oil for roubles, so who knows.

    • Agree: AP
    • Replies: @A123
  65. sher singh says:
    @Yevardian

    Liberalism is anti-white so a Sikh cheering on its demise is pro-white.
    Assimilating is gay instead you should carry swords & lift weights.

    True pride is expressed in the street, you’re a literal shit on the sidewalk||
    Maybe an Indian left you there?

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    • LOL: songbird
    • Replies: @silviosilver
  66. @prime noticer

    Is there any reason you refuse to capitalize the start of your sentences? A decade or so ago, it might (barely) have been excusable, and to a certain demographic even made you seem cool – wow, this guy must be posting from his phone, what a wired up, tech-savvy life he must lead. Nowadays, far from giving your posts a nonchalant strut, it just looks sad.

    • Agree: AP
  67. S says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    This reads crypto-Marxist from the ethno-cultural labor side, and this is a weird complement.

    Thanks. I think the original idea with this manufactured and broadly controlled dialectic (crimethink, I know) which has been emanating from the Anglosphere of Capitalist vs Communist, Right vs Left, etc, was that the ‘Left’ was to correct the errors of the ‘Right’, and vice-versa to an extent as well.

    However, running both sides of this artificial dialectic as they have been for centuries is quite corrupting, and historically, powerful elements and their hangers on of both the Anglo-Saxon and Jewish peoples were heavily involved in the quite lucrative chattel slavery and it’s trade, and still are with it’s much more profitable monetization, wage slavery, ie the so called ‘cheap labor’/’mass immigration’ system, the economic and political basis of the modern progressive multi-cultural state.

    Thus, the people at the very top being made up in large part of what are in reality unreformed slavers from what I can tell, which really shines through in the proto-multicultural 1851 London Times editorial, and people being creatures of habit as they are, to clarify a recently heard saying, and with the proper conditioning, I think after a planned WWIII they may be aiming for a post war global remnant population that will embrace this sentiment:

    ‘You will have nothing, and you will work for nothing, and you will be happy.’

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  68. @sher singh

    Liberalism is anti-white so a Sikh cheering on its demise is pro-white.

    You are both anti-liberal and anti-white, no different to haredi and islamist trash.

    • Disagree: sher singh
    • Replies: @sher singh
  69. Wielgus says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    The Red Army in WW2 tended to expend lives quite extravagantly, but perhaps it had to and it could be regarded as a sign of desperation on their part that the Ukrainians tend to be more “based and glorious”.
    From 1943 onwards, no longer able to boast of territorial gains, the Nazi press like the Völkischer Beobachter went with headlines like “More bloody losses for the Bolsheviks”. The Red Army was advancing but at a cost.

  70. Wielgus says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Ukrainian POWs being marched off. One of their guards seems to be saying to camera “I tak i proidut” (“And that’s how they’ll go”) but Russian is a second language for me so I may be wrong.

    • Replies: @S
  71. Wielgus says:
    @Wokechoke

    Years later, while besieging a Danish fortress in Norway he received a fatal head wound. To this day it is unknown whether he was a victim of enemy fire, friendly fire or “fragging”.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  72. Wokechoke says:
    @Wielgus

    Karl was hardcore. What an extraordinary life he led. Reminds me of Harald Hardrada.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
  73. Auto-translate of Strelkov’s latest posting regarding ongoing battles:

    The area south of Izyum:

    Fierce fighting continues along the entire perimeter of the Russian bridgehead. There are tactical advances everywhere. According to incoming reports, the most fierce battles are taking place on the right flank – in the area of village of Velikaya Kamyshevakha (and, possibly, directly in the village), as well as “on the edge” of the offensive – in the center of the bridgehead – in the area (possibly – and on the territory) of the village of Novaya Dmitrovka . After taking the indicated town our troops will approach directly the Barvenkovo-Slavyansk highway and create a threat of its interception (which will not be easy, since the settlements along this highway merge into an almost continuous agglomeration).

    It should be noted that the battles are continuous “viscous” character. The enemy has enough manpower to – despite the lengthening of the front line in this area – nowhere to allow Russian troops to make deep breakthroughs.
    At the same time, the enemy continues to withdraw his forces from the bridgehead he still has on the left bank of the Seversky Donets – from the Liman-Yampol region and the Severodonetsk ledge, leaving the most advanced positions to the east between Severodonetsk and Popasna (in which fierce fighting continued).

    It is assumed that the enemy will soon (today or tomorrow) leave Liman and withdraw his troops to strengthen the flanks of the group – near Barvenkovo ​​and Slavyansk.
    The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of the DPR were not able to prevent this and surround the enemy units.

    In general, the enemy defends competently, stubbornly, controls the situation and his troops. There is no panic in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is absolutely clear that the command is betting on WINING TIME AND INFLICTING MAXIMUM LOSS ON THE STRIKING UNITS OF THE RF – due to the unhurried surrender of the territory.

    Ahead of the Russian troops in this direction is the huge Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration, which was prepared in advance for a long defense. Its Armed Forces will definitely not surrender until the last opportunity – defending, if necessary, as a “besieged fortress”. (In this regard, the fate of the remnants of the Mariupol garrison is of great importance – they should not be released or interned in any case – otherwise the garrison of Slavyansk-Kramatorsk will defend just as long and stubbornly, if not longer and more stubbornly). However, this “fortress” will still have to be surrounded, which is very difficult to do with the available limited forces and at such a low pace – at which the enemy freely withdraws his units and prepares new defense units in advance.

    In the south – in the area of ​​Gulyai-Pole and Orekhov – the situation has not changed significantly. “Southern part of pincer” stalled.

    In the central section – near Donetsk – the situation as a whole is unchanged. There is a lull in most areas, the fighting is only in the area north of Avdiivka, where the DPR Armed Forces have had minor tactical successes.

    The general conclusion, unfortunately, is bleak: the attack of the Russian group on the encirclement and encirclement of the Donetsk group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which did not come as a surprise, met with fierce resistance and almost certainly will not lead to a complete encirclement and defeat of the enemy ( only some 2-3 additional tank corps “out of the sky” could come in order to abruptly break through the front and connect deep in the rear of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). “Cannes” just didn’t work out.

    In the best case, the enemy will be “squeezed out” from the Donbass for many weeks and even – it is possible – for several months, with heavy losses (mutual, of course). That will allow him to create, train and massively introduce strategic reserves into battle in any chosen area without much haste by the summer. And also – to crush Transnistria, gathering sufficient forces for this and not risking defeat near Donetsk during the operation.

    https://vk.com/igoristrelkov?w=wall347260249_654927

    • Thanks: S
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  74. A123 says: • Website
    @AP

    Here are Ukrainian forests and hills:

    I would expect battles in the forested north and in the hilly center and mountainous west to be more like around Kiev.

    Your map reinforces my earlier question.

    For Ukraine to WIN. They must advance over open land to retake Mariupol. How will they achieve this?

    If Ukraine cannot WIN, the best they can achieve is a LOSE-LOSE stalemate.
    ___

    Russia’s economy is harmed, yes. However Ukraine’s is headed into collapse. War is expensive.

    — What % of Ukraine’s outside assistance is from Not-The-President Biden’s regime?
    — When the Hunter Biden laptop material is released, what are the chances that more details about the Burisma bribery scandal will be revealed?

    Even if there is nothing specific about Hunter’s Ukrainian corruption, simple inward focus for America could reduce, or cut off, funding for Ukraine.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @Triteleia Laxa
  75. @Ron Unz

    7-10k Russians (inc. LDNR), 15-20k Ukrainians, vast uncertainty on both sides.

    As I noted, I think in the battles around Kiev it was 1:1 or thereabouts, but the current fighting in Donbass (and Kherson) is extremely loaded against the Ukrainians. Example: https://t.me/vysokygovorit/7586

    Для примера: 39 бригада, штурмовавшая Сулиговку, имеет за всё время боевых действий пару десятков погибших и несколько десятков раненых, в то время, как только одна лишь 95 бригада ВСУ потеряла в боях с ними более 100 человек убитыми, находясь при этом в хорошо подготовленной обороне. А кроме 95 бригады, там же были разгромлены части 93 механизированной и 25 десантно-штурмовой бригад ВСУ.

    Even allowing for some exaggeration, that would be at least a 5:1 ratio, possible higher.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    , @prime noticer
  76. A123 says: • Website
    @Yevardian

    Though on the other hand, I noticed Europe is buckling *already* over buying oil for roubles, so who knows.

    There really is no such thing as a “United Europe” or “The West”. Hungary would end as a country without Russian gas, their willingness to buy in Rubles was inevitable. While not as extreme, Slovakia is in similar position. They too have openly committed to buying Russia gas.

    “European” unified policy is a myth. Authoritarian control by the Brussels-Berlin Axis is slipping badly. (1)

    Bloomberg reports citing a person close to Russian gas giant Gazprom, that already Europe’s fake united front is cracking as four European gas buyers have already paid for supplies in rubles as Russia demanded even as further cutoffs if others refuse the Kremlin’s requirement aren’t likely until the second half of May, when the next payments are due.

    While it was unclear which are the four companies violating EU directives and paying directly in rubles, according to Reuters Germany’ Uniper and Austrian OMV are among the companies that have folded to Kremlin’ demands:

    The German Traffic-Light Coalition will find some way to remove Uniper from that list. However, other sovereign nations in Europe will not use such strong arm tactics against their own people.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/four-european-gas-buyers-fold-russian-demands-pay-gas-rubles

  77. Wokechoke says:
    @A123

    The area around Kiev has several distinct problems for the Russians that don’t exist in the South.

    The Russians were coming from Belorussia and their supplies were coming from Russia via Belorussia. Long supply lines.

    Metropolitan city with populated suburbs and exurbs and light industry connected to the international airport.

    A dead zone around Chernobyl. Spooky.

    It’s bisected by the Dneiper and several man made dammed lakes.

    The Ukrainians could come directly out of their capital fighting. They could build up to the south and west of the Russian forces right there. Russians were hemmed in and at extended supply routes.

    The south is open country close to Russian depots. No risk of Belorussia halting supply under political considerations. Significant Russian population in the south controlling the biggest cities there.

    The Muravsky Trail suits an army heading south from Kursk and north east from Melitopol. It doesn’t suit forces in Dnipro and Kiev. Kharkov can impact this invasion route but so far the Russians have extended the front line in the south so much the Ukies are having trouble concentrating forces in Donbas to counter the sweeping arc of Russian movements out of Crimea and Luhansk.

    Crimea is like a mega unsinkable aircraft carrier.

  78. @Sean

    the latter would not use them…

    If they detect nuclear warheads heading for their soil, and nothing less than that, they will respond in kind. A full first strike will be met with counterstrikes. Any misjudgment or errors in EWS may trigger the US.

    he considers Ukraine an existential threat to Russia

    It is only a threat to his imperial ambitions – Ukraine has not tried irredentism on Russian soil yet, a more nationalist government might, and even then it would not be existential. Only after the US attacks Russian assets anywhere, and Russia is in the same phase as Germany and Japan were in 1945, would it be existential for Putin’s regime.

    (Tho I’d say what an occupational administration could do would damage Russians as a people, but Central Asian and Caucasian guest workers settle en masse in Russia before the war, too)

    You certainly cannot fight conventionally against nuclear weapons, and nuclear weapons have no military purpose; wars cannot be fought with them.

    The main purpose of nuclear weapons is (the threat of) annihilation.

    It seems America’s aim is to totally defeat Russia in Ukraine

    Driving Russia to behind the borders recognized by the US and EU at least.

    he will countenance foreign intervention turning the tables on Russia

    Russian troops will face off the NATO military in the unlikely case that an invasion is necessary for NATO, for a brutal way of regime change. Putin will reach for the cheget and express Hitler’s suicidal urge by striking Washington DC, in the final application of Eye for Eye, Tooth for Tooth.

    He to go full thermonuclear rather than be beaten. I note that Putin’s threat to invade Ukraine was not a bluff, though everyone thought it was.

    This is what the Jewish political commentary known as Book of Revelation does to a relatively religious and absolutely fanatical president, unlike bluffing self-interested decision makers like Kim. How ironic.

    China probably saw the war coming and did the best to hide it, and they dare not to come out and openly support Russia. But they probably don’t foresee nukes actually flying, only the threats.

    • Replies: @Sean
  79. Wokechoke says:
    @sudden death

    You always have to wait for the last meme in a text like this.

    Transnistria.

    That’s this guy’s ultimate aim. Transnistria apparently gives Ukraine a speed kill if they decided to attack it. When he begins to talk about Kaliningrad then I will worry. How long would Kaliningrad do in a proper siege and blockade? How would the Russians retaliate? When he starts talking about that we can expect war in the Baltic.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  80. @S

    It isn’t in the Jews or Anglo-Saxons as a people, much of their middle and lower classes will be sacrificed, too. It is rather Jewish memes that signals their hosts’ exclusivity and consequentially the destruction of Gentiles, meeting an economic and political system that Anglo-Saxons pioneered. Individuals and Peoples don’t plan world domination, only ideas do.

    • Replies: @S
  81. S says:
    @Wielgus

    Ukrainian POWs being marched off. One of their guards seems to be saying to camera “I tak i proidut” (“And that’s how they’ll go”)…

    Hehe. I’m reminded of an account from the Battle of the Bulge where the Germans had taken a sizeable number of Allied soldiers prisoner. Some German officer piped up within their hearing in English as they were being marched to the rear that ‘It’s a long way to Tipperrary!’

    People can be rather cruel to newly minted POW’s that way. 😉

    • Replies: @Wielgus
  82. S says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    I tend to agree about elements of a people’s elites all too often being prepared to sacrifice large numbers of their own for their own ends.

    Individuals and Peoples don’t plan world domination, only ideas do.

    Didn’t the Greek Alexander as an individual plan world domination, and his men willfully follow him, that is, until they got homesick? Maybe I’m misinterpreting what you’re saying. Can you elaborate some on what you mean?

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
  83. Mr. Hack says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Reading both Western and Russian sources regarding death tolls so far during this war, one gets wildly different results, each side slanting the numbers to its own benefit. One thing that is crystal clear, is that Ukrainian civilian deaths are much higher on the Ukrainians side, according to UN sources about 2,729 Ukrainian civilians have perished a a result of Putler’s Ukrainian dragnet of searching for “Nazis”. I would guess that a good majority of these elderly folks, mothers and children that have perished are from the Eastern zone, areas that are often Russian speaking enclaves. Areas that were once friendly towards Russia, that would be nice to have on your side if you indeed win the war in this area. Not any more. People remember who was responsible for this unprovoked war and who killed their own, and wont go for any Russian BS to the contrary.

  84. @S

    That is one story.

    The one I like is they got to Persia and the vast majority of them said hell with Hellenistic-o-philia these Persian peoples really know what’s cookin’! You can have a lot of fun if you have force on your side and the boss man is drinking himself to death.

    • LOL: S
  85. @Anatoly Karlin

    Some rootless coastalcosmopolitans and traitors admire them. Happily Xi is brutally repressing the bananas under the cover of Zero Covid.

    Xi is destroying the legitimacy of his rule in China’s second most important city and one that has its smartest people and retains its most cultural capital in order to do some “repressing?”

    Sorry, I don’t buy it. That would be bizarrely stupid.

    It seems likely that instead Xi really believes in Zero Covid and is trying to maintain it. His problem though is much like Putin’s problem in Ukraine, the longer he continues his effort before he inevitably gives up or realit forces him to give up, the biggest the humiliation for him.

    Now, this should therefore be an easy problem to solve. Just give up immediately. But, psychologically, since giving up today results in worse outcomes than having given up yesterday, this can prove impossibe. It feels like too much of a loss. So the face saving cultures just double down on failure instead.

    And then suddenly, a few months into their effort, they find themselves in shock and disbelief about how they got into such a mess, despite starting with so few problems. And people begin to ask themselves, what was the point?

    And maybe they continue doubling down for years and completely annihilate themselves, just to never have to admit that they were wrong. Or maybe they have a moment of clarity and give up and salvage what they can.

    Xi is at the beginning of his journey in this regard. His test of character will be in whether he gives up on Zero Covid in the next month or two, or not.

    Putin is in the middle of his journey and he has likely already failed his test of character. He has maybe a week or two where he might be able to salavage anything at all. Russian propaganda is extremely strong. They seem to be able to sell their idiots anything, but there does need to be at least some small semblance of reality, I assume.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  86. Wielgus says:
    @S

    In 1939-40 the British had sung about “we’re going to hang out our washing on the Siegfried Line”, and Germans sometimes taunted British POWs with this after capturing large numbers of them on various occasions between 1940 and 1942. It would not be until late 1944 that British and Americans started to reach parts of the Siegfried Line.

    • Thanks: S
  87. today:
    1 dollar = 71 rubles
    day of invasion:
    1 dollar = 81 rubbles

    Russia has thought about this exact scenario for years, and is mostly accomplishing their goals. the US is currently lead by raging morons, and has handled almost everything wrong. Russia was expecting and anticipating most US moves.

    US sanctions are hurting America while mostly helping Russia. Russia is making more money now from energy sales, and is currently advancing a historical, Bretton-Woods level move to circumvent the Dollar in international trade. it may partially work.

    US economy contracts 1.4% in the first quarter. mild recession possible.

  88. @Mikel

    Well, I didn’t end up on hold all that long. I was contacted today by my official liaison from the CFIIG to set up a mutually agreeable testing regimen and to further evaluate my claim.

    He immediately suggested doing the test inside their building with stuff under cardboard boxes. I responded by saying that it won’t work that way and that they should find a site with verifiable surveyed utilities of some sort. I’ll be kept ignorant of the location and will be driven to the test. My guesses can be cross referenced to the known utility locations.

    We’ll see what they say in response.

    It seems that there is some serious scientific credibility for dowsing. Of course study data can be found for or against, so one study versus another proves little.

    https://www.scientificexploration.org/docs/9/jse_09_1_betz.pdf

    I did dig out my copper dowsing rods and was playing around with them today. One of the explanations for the movement of the rods are slight automatic movements of the hand. This seems unlikely in my case since my rods are 3/16″ copper rod extending about 18″ horizontally. They are quite substantial, and it takes a very substantial conscious movement to get them to move in a similar way to when dowsing. I have to extend almost full grip strength on the small rod handle to get them to swing.

    As I said before, I’ll devise a rigorous verifiable test around here soon and give you an update on it’s results.

    • Thanks: Mikel, RSDB
    • Replies: @RSDB
  89. @Anatoly Karlin

    “Even allowing for some exaggeration, that would be at least a 5:1 ratio, possible higher.”

    it’s 5:1 at least. maybe more like 6 or 7. UKR is getting pulverized. the longer it goes on the more lopsided it becomes due to UKR running out of most equipment. this conflict would have been over a while ago without the US and NATO dumping billions in equipment, years of worth of production, into a 2 month battle.

    i maintain my position that RUS would roll over any individual EU member of NATO. they don’t have the equipment or ammunition to last more than a month. meanwhile RUS forces are trundling along at like 50% intensity and unit usage.

    the reason UKR does not surrender is because the US won’t let them surrender, and because their leader is not Ukrainian, and doesn’t care if most UKR units get wiped out. he feels nothing when Ukrainians get killed and is fine with millions of them dying if need be. this is the problem with having jews in control of your country. it is the problem of jews running the US State Department and starting stupid nonsense wars. they don’t care how many marines from Ohio and Texas get killed. they weren’t jews, so who cares.

    • Agree: LondonBob
    • Replies: @AP
  90. @Triteleia Laxa

    It is Beijing that is China’s cultural center – the city of soldiers and poets, of artists and scholars. Shanghai is but a den of merchants and shysters.

    It is sad that it had to come to this, but Chad Jinping is doing what he must to keep the svidomist virus contained. The denizens of Shanghai will be confined to their cuckpods and the lockdowns will never end. But I would point out that this is ultimately a punishment that they brought upon themselves, for such are the wages of svidomism.

  91. AP says:
    @prime noticer

    Lots of coping based on cluelessness about the Ukrainian people.

    • Replies: @prime noticer
  92. Sean says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    If they detect nuclear warheads heading for their soil, and nothing less than that, they will respond in kind.

    Agreed. However the theory of nukes and when to use them never anticipated a situation like this so it would be an uncertain situation

    A full first strike will be met with counterstrikes.

    The most likely scenario would be Ukraine forcing the Russians back, and a specimen thermonuclear detonation by Russia in a relatively deserted area in mid-East Ukraine and in the rear of the Ukrainian army. Once that Rubicon had been crossed, well the invasion has already killed tens of thousands conventionally.

    This is what the Jewish political commentary known as Book of Revelation does to a relatively religious and absolutely fanatical president, unlike bluffing self-interested decision makers like Kim. How ironic.

    In the aforementioned circumstances of Russia being forced back to its start point inside Ukraine at the begining of this war, and given the predictable extreme costliness of the Ukraine invasion (in the economics sanction aspect) it is contrary to common sense us to expect Putin to balk at use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. For that reason I think he is unlike Kim inasmuch Putin has credibility for his threats because the conventional level is where Russia lack technological or commitment advantage (at least none he chooses to use). Putin would have to be slow on the uptake to keep feeding his all his potential reservist and extra conscripts into the Ukrainian-American buzzsaw so that 50,000 Russians get killed and the army breaks before the idea of a nuke is contemplated.

    If everything had gone Putin’s way and he had taken Ukraine with barely any resistance in a few days, sanctions would be all the West could do, so they’d be hitting them to the absolute utmost and making things economically worse for Russia than they currently are. With Munich being brought up, there was no opportunity to get any diplomatic concessions by military bluff, so he would have to do it the hard way or not at all. I think Putin has demonstrated he regards Ukraine as an existential threat to Russia. Whether Ukraine presents any such danger is beside the point; Putin believes so and is acting on his belief. By actually using his army. Putin’s proven perception is Russia must take any and all economic risks to attain certain objectives in regard to Ukraine. There is no reason to think he will accept being pushed back to the start point of Russia before this war. He has made obscure menaces of what might happen were foreign intervention to push Russian into a corner, as he sees it; the meaning is clear enough though.

    • Thanks: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Beckow
  93. A123 says: • Website
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Chad Jinping is doing what he must to keep the svidomist virus contained. The denizens of Shanghai will be confined to their cuckpods and the lockdowns will never end. But I would point out that this is ultimately a punishment that they brought upon themselves, for such are the wages of svidomism.

    We will know more soon. Beijing has a rapidly spreading outbreak (1)

    On Thursday, residents of two Chaoyang housing compounds were ordered to stay inside and some clinics and businesses closed.

    Beijing officials reported 50 new cases on Thursday, bringing its total in this coronavirus wave to approximately150.

    The nation’s health authority said there were 11,285 new cases across mainland China, with the vast majority still in Shanghai

    Incubation time suggests that containment has already been lost. Closing housing after multiple cases are reported is too late.

    If Beijing and its CCP Elites receive different treatment, the gig is up on the inhabitants of Peking being “above all others”. If Beijing Elites are permenantly locked down in their cuckpods, that would be true to Red Communist ideals. However, it will create all sorts other problems.

    Perhaps the CCP Elites regret creating the WUHAN-19 plague at their Wuhan Institute of Virology. They really should show contrition for their lab leak impact on the planet’s population.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.foxnews.com/world/beijing-classes-online-covid-restrictions-tighten

    • Replies: @sudden death
  94. sher singh says:
    @silviosilver

    Join the discord. You can believe what you want, I’m more Pro-Sikh/Dharma than anything else.
    The European Gods hold a place in our heart, nothing else to say.

    If you’re unworthy of them and unarmed do you really have a place to speak?
    Think before you respond

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  95. songbird says:

    Was it a dog-whistle, when Musk tweeted that he was going to buy McDonald’s and fix all the ice cream machines, and then followed it up with “Listen. I can’t do miracles, okay?”
    ____
    Russian oil production is falling.

  96. S says:

    A great many parallels between the Soviet – Finn ‘Winter War of 1939-40 and the present fighting in Ukraine. After the Soviet Union launched ineffective and costly attacks on multiple fronts in Nov 1939, they changed tactics at the beginning of the third month concentrating on a much narrower Southern front. Through attritional warfare, and great cost to themselves and the Finns, the Soviets were able to bring the war to a somewhat favorable conclusion for the USSR at the three and a half month point.


    Destroyed Soviet Column (Jan, 1940)

    The main focus of the Soviet attack was switched to the Karelian Isthmus. Timoshenko and Zhdanov reorganised and tightened control between different branches of service in the Red Army. They also changed tactical doctrines to meet the realities of the situation….The Soviets shipped large numbers of new tanks and artillery pieces to the theatre. Troops were increased from ten divisions to 25–26 divisions with six or seven tank brigades and several independent tank platoons as support, totalling 600,000 soldiers. On 1 February, the Red Army began a large offensive, firing 300,000 shells into the Finnish line in the first 24 hours of the bombardment.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War

    • Replies: @AP
  97. @Anatoly Karlin

    Resistance is futile. You are merely prolonging the inevitable. You vil be assimilated.

  98. Beckow says:
    @Sean

    …slow-mo multi micro offensives strategy in which the ‘big push’ never comes but Ukraine suffers interminable tiny defeats

    That would be in effect a stalemate, I don’t think Russia could afford that politically – so their strategy must include some future break-throughs. In all wars the only public opinion that matters is the domestic one. Russia needs something to present at home as victory with costs worth it. That by definition requires the Black See coast (or most of it), to protect Crimea. It doesn’t require Kiev, Kharkov or Lviv – the opposite, most Russians don’t want the Western Ukraine, they understand that it would be a permanent headache and it would be “unjust”.

    Since this is now in effect a Nato-Russia war, the calculations could mean nothing. The bad thing about the recent dramatic escalation is that to solve it we need an agreed-on losing side. Neither side can afford to be seen as a loser meaning more trouble ahead.

  99. songbird says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    Wouldn’t say that I’m a true-believer when it comes to GDP, but, still, even I have to admit that the GDP of North Africa is amazingly low.

    Maybe, there is some room for improvement? If Morocco and Algeria bury the hatchet? Or some new form of government is invented?

    Though, personally, I’d never want to live in North Africa, regardless. As far as I am concerned, it is a climatic death zone, for someone with my genes. Maybe, Southern Europeans or tannable Germanics might be interested in it.

    I doubt North Africans would want us on their turf either. I think they’ve demonstrated that pretty well, even though they do like to go North. They might tolerate retirees though, if they add something to the economy.

  100. Mr. Hack says:



    Who stands to possibly be the biggest winner of this war, by doing mostly nothing?…

    • Agree: Thulean Friend
    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  101. AP says:
    @S

    Good comparison but some differences that favor Ukraine:

    1. Finland was getting a lot less military and other help. There were some volunteers and low scale aid but for diplomatic reasons neither Germany nor the western allies were willing to provide much help. Finland was basically on its own.

    2. Much smaller population discrepancy between Ukraine and Russia vs. Finland and USSR.

    For these reasons, Ukraine has a better chance in this stage than did Finland.

    • Thanks: S
    • Replies: @Beckow
  102. Beckow says:
    @Sean

    …where Russia lack technological or commitment advantage (at least none he chooses to use).

    Simonyan over-simplified it as a loss or going nuclear, but there is a middle choice. What you refer to as commitment is Russia’s unwillingness to use what they have to destroy massive numbers of ‘brotherly’ Ukrainians or bomb Kiev (“holy city”). But they could do it and it would end the war with horrific devastation. So far they seem to be incrementally showing what they could do hoping that Kiev gets the message and folds. I don’t think they will – their sponsors rather like the damage, more the better.

    It may come down to Putin’s decision: destroying what he emotionally cannot bring himself to do (Kiev) or risk destroying the whole world. My bet is that he would go for Kiev, he is by all accounts rational. By then it may not be enough – the West can escalate further.

    In similar case when Nato was slowly bombing Serbia to Middle Ages (their words), Beograd eventually gave in. But Russia – their sponsor – told them to do it.

    • Replies: @Sean

  103. one of the biggest assholes in the history of the world, mocking Ritter for his correct Iraq call.

    i see today that the asshole called for \$33 billion (!) for Ukraine, just for the rest of 2022. that sounds like a military that is winning to me. that’s like 10 years of what the US sends to Israel per year.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
  104. @Anatoly Karlin

    It is Beijing that is China’s cultural center – the city of soldiers and poets, of artists and scholars. Shanghai is but a den of merchants and shysters.

    Please stop embarrassing yourself. Lower Yangzi dominated cultural production from since Southern Song (12 CE), comparable to France 16-18 CE.

    North, Northwest, and Middle Yangzi are the cradles. Beijing on the northern edge of Central Plains, didn’t become prominent until Ming (13 CE). There is no one on this list from the actual city of Beijing, but around a third from Lower Yangzi.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese-language_poets

    • Thanks: Thulean Friend
  105. @AP

    obviously you don’t know anything.

    View post on imgur.com


    see the two guys on the right? they and their tribe DEMAND to run all european nations. and when they don’t get their way, they try to start wars. they’re FURIOUS that Putin doesn’t allow them to run Russia and loot it. they want to make Russia pay.

    for 20 years Putin has reduced corruption in Russia and improved it as a place to live, specifically by reducing the amount of stupid stuff the tribe is allowed to do. but there are limits. he doesn’t control anything in the US. and the tribe controls DC and the US State Department. and by extension, the Pentagon.

    and that’s what this entire war is about. jewish demands that they run everything everywhere. US defense contractors are always happy to go along, for the big money payouts.

    • Replies: @AP
  106. AP says:
    @prime noticer

    You know nothing about Ukraine and Russia. And your obsession with Jews is dumb and boring.

    Btw Putin has a Jewish prime minister, a Jewish business partner, and he enjoys a good relationship with Israel. People in Russia who are as obsessed with Jews as you are don’t like Putin very much. But, as we have established, you don’t know anything about Russia or Ukraine.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    , @A123
  107. @Thulean Friend

    Incidentally, I read Klaus Schwab’s The Great Reset a while back and it was very banal. Pretty much what one would expect from a true believer in the inherent goodness of tech and liberalism.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
  108. Beckow says:
    @AP

    Two differences that favor Russia:

    – population in the south-east-Donbas plus is not uniformly hostile to Russia (an understatement!); in Finland that was not the case

    – weapons difference is more dramatic and it is too late to give Kiev better weapons

    Given the differences it will take longer, but the result will be about the same.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    , @AP
  109. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    lol, Karlin is still mad as a rabid blind bat, because zero covid lowers overall oil demand and subsequently prices are rather stable, while RF production and sales are going down, so he is furiously coping himself with achieving imaginable victories against “Chinese svidomism” 😉

  110. @Thulean Friend

    A fellow Klaus appreciatooor! It is Bashibuzuk, not me, who was obsessed with him (in a negative way).

  111. @A123

    No, for Ukraine to win they only need to survive. Russia will go home. Ukrainians are in their home.

    As for the damage to the “economy,” that argument might be a priority for Russia and its economy as Russia only has its pride on the line, but Ukraine has the much bigger priority of their country: Ukraine. If they concede territory without joining NATO, they just open themselves up to another Russian invasion in the future, but make their own chances of surviving much worse in that conflict.

    Ukraine is currently enacting a defence in depth. They are making orderly withdrawals in exchange for destroying significant Russian forces. In the meantime, the provision of Western arms continues to accelerate and Ukraine near-infinite capacity to send troops to safe foreign locales to be trained on those arms.

    The second Russian attempt to shock the Ukrainians into crumbling is failing. Ukraine will emerge from this ohasee of the with their frontline forces intact, their opponent exhausted and a large number of serious and well-equipped reinforcements incoming.

    The balance of forces for the next phase is essentially already decided and it is looking miserable for Russia. Every Russian decision has been in chase of failure. If they didn’t want to be outmatched in two weeks time, they would have had to nationally mobilise a month ago. If they had wanted a decisive victory in Donbas, they would have had to ended the other offensives as soon as they met serious resistance, in order to reinforce Donbas as the main effort.

    The problem of losing in a big operation is not that you can’t change course, but that it is psychologically too difficult for most people to change course until they meet definite failure, at which point, changing course is too late, and the pattern repeats itself.

    If Putin wants to declare victory, he might find that the most passable one would be in a week, followed by an immediate ceasefire with agreement to withdraw to pre-invasion lines. Since the Russian shills and useful idiots seem to be able to buy literally anything that Putin is selling, perhaps he will pull it off.

    Propaganda is the great Russian strength as it creates fewer useful idiots for the other side to use and attracts useful idiots to Russia’s cause, but it is also their biggest weakness, it corrupts the flow of information and makes them less competent 9 times out of 10. Clean information is what drives effective decision-making.

    Meanwhile, the Western culture of self-critique, as created by the Ancient Greeks, is also both the greatest strength of the West and it’s greatest weakness. It means that useful idiots bloom in multitudes, but it also makes for better decisio-making 9 times out of 10.

    There is the problem in the West that resident foreign groups mostly don’t really do this, and are considered somewhat outside of it, but that is a long-term problem for the future and the only end result of it is that the West becomes like elsewhere.

    Personally, I don’t think this will happen. Other groups will learn to get past “saving face” and other forms of dishonesty, but it is a worthwhile point that needs to be worked on.

    Overall, Russia’s problems in this war are institutional and cultural, so they will not turn it around. They simply cannot be honest with themselves about themselves, and see their negatives and flaws, while they are also extremely vociferous in critique of everyone else.

    There is also the interesting parallel with Iraq 2, where Western forces simply couldn’t be honest about the negatives and flaws of the other, of the Iraqis that they were trying to build something far too sophisticated for, but were vociferous in self-critique.

    The West needs to keep their self-critique, but extend it to non-Western demographies in a serious and amoral manner. Russia just needs to learn from the Greeks and develop some courage and integrity.

    Optimistically, this war will help. Can Russia just see itself as the victim, super-power and everyone else at fault for their failure, though they actually won, yet again? I doubt it, though humans can really deceive themselves every far.

    As for the West, seeing what an alternative “superpower” does when it acts, should remind people that we’re far from perfect, but we’re orders of magnitude better than the alternative.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    , @Sean
  112. Mr. Hack says:
    @Beckow

    “Not uniformly hostile”…what part?

    If Ukrainian citizens need to see what a future Ukraine will look like under Russian influence, they need not go any further than Mariupol or Kherson to get a small taste of what awaits them. If they need further proof, all they need to do is to look at what life is like in the newly designated “republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk:

    The areas, known in Russian as Donetskaya Narodnaya Respublika (DNR) and Luganskaya Narodnaya Respublika (LNR), comprise the eastern part of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions respectively; the western parts have remained under Ukrainian government control even after 2014. Despite the “people’s republic” names, they have routinely intimidated organized labor and political dissidents, institutionalized violence, and trampled on human rights. They have also presided over the collapse of industry and a catastrophic fall in living standards.

    For more detailed information read this eye opening article, published in March:

    https://jacobinmag.com/2022/03/donbas-donetsk-luhansk-ukraine-russia-putin

    • Replies: @Beckow
  113. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    I was trolling TL, that aside, I don’t even see how this is an inaccurate assessment today, there are more Beijing think-tanks and they are patriotic and pro-Eurasian whereas Shanghai’s are packed with Western stooges, it has twice Shanghai’s Science production (https://www.natureindex.com/supplements/nature-index-2020-science-cities/tables/overall) and China’s top two universities, etc. Modern Beijing is far superior to Shanghai on both the moral as well as pure accomplishments plane.

  114. @AP

    Btw Putin has a Jewish prime minister, a Jewish business partner, and he enjoys a good relationship with Israel. People in Russia who are as obsessed with Jews as you are don’t like Putin very much.

    And Putin’s main state propTV political talk show propagandist is vehemently against Ukraine and Zelensky, but himself is Jewish too 😉

    • LOL: AP
    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
  115. @sudden death

    As an aside, do you seriously think ‘Zero Covid’ is appropriate as new variants become increasingly transmissible? Seems like a doomed quest. CCP had early wins with Zero Covid but “overlearned” their lesson and now can’t seem to re-adapt.

    I saw some Han nationalists praising these policies, as it purges foreigners and seals off the country. From an isolationist rightoid perspective, that’s defensible. But it critically hinges on you actually being successful in pursuing this policy with minimal ruptures, which the CCP clearly and manifestly is not right now.

    What was it that Darwin used to say? It’s not the biggest, strongest or the fastest that survive, but those who adapt best to new circumstances.

  116. A123 says: • Website
    @AP

    I concur (again),

    Both Russia and Ukraine have Jewish communities and strong ties to the Jewish religious homeland. The idea that the Ukrainian-Russian conflict has anything to do with the practice of Judaism is absurd.

    WEF Elites had a great deal to do with this fight. And, one does not have to look far to find to find out how much they despise Palestine’s indigenous Jewish population.

    PEACE 😇

  117. songbird says:

    Now would be the perfect time for Poland to roll its tanks westward.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  118. @Barbarossa

    It has to be simple enough for inbred Windsors and Rothschilds to read the stuff.

    • LOL: Barbarossa
  119. A123 says: • Website
    @sudden death

    zero covid lowers overall oil demand and subsequently prices are rather stable, while RF production and sales are going down,

    Revenue cannot be up if prices are constant and volume is down. Somewhere you have a math problem: (1)

    Even though Russian energy exports are declining, higher prices have enabled the country’s state-owned oil and gas companies to double revenue, thus stabilizing the ruble and allowing financing for President Putin’s military machine.

    According to The Guardian, citing a new report of shipping movements by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), Russia has reaped a whopping €62 billion from oil, gas, and coal exports since the invasion of Ukraine began.

    Prices…. Not so stable.

    he is furiously coping himself

    It is pretty obvious who is self-serving ‘cope’. Hint: It is not AK.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russian-fossil-fuel-revenues-double-despite-western-sanctions

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @sudden death
  120. @Anatoly Karlin

    What Svidomy? The lockdowns may anger the Shanghaiese enough, but they aren’t overthrowing the party apparatus. They are mainly frustrated with the lockdowns and the breakdown in logistics, not the political system – a lot are planning to leave without reading Taiwanese propaganda. Xi or local officials will try to back down by debasing their “dynamic COVID Zero” concept when cases in Shanghai stabilizes at a low level, if that isn’t about more isolationism.

    This is the face of Svidomy in East Asia: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4520517

  121. Wielgus says:
    @Wokechoke

    He was but his death spelled the end of the Swedish Empire, which had been in existence for a little under a century, and Sweden had been a major player in the Thirty Years’ War. Towards the end of that conflict Sweden published a sort of propaganda poster listing all the fortresses they held, most of them in what is now Germany, as a sort of advertisement of their military successes, even though they had defeats as well as victories.
    The Cossack chieftain Mazeppa cooperated with Charles against Russia, and a pejorative Russian term for Ukrainians, especially anti-Russian ones, is mazepy. Mazeppa tends now to be presented as a hero in the Ukrainian education system and historiography whereas Tsarist Russia and the USSR both presented him as a traitor. Bohdan Khmelnytsky who led a revolt against Poland and concluded a treaty with the Russian Tsar received more favourable treatment and indeed in Soviet times a Ukrainian region was named after him and still is. As they say, the future is certain, it is only the past that keeps changing…

  122. @sudden death

    The only part of Putin’s war machine that actually seems to be performing is its propaganda wing; which seems to be run by Jews and Armenians, like this man, and the always impressive Margarita Simonyan, or the redoubtable Ron Unz.

    It is amazing how they have even leveraged genuine Western Nazi sympathisers to support the prosecution of a war based on the ridiculous pretext of denazification.

    Very talent people. Even if they now shame themselves, as every lie uttered is in support of the dismemberment and murder of Ukrainians.

    Of course the most well-rounded of their information war partisans,
    will have dropped out and gone a little quiet or turned silly troll for idiots, as soon as they could see what everyone can see, which is the catastrophe that Russia has caused.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  123. @Thulean Friend

    it purges foreigners and seals off the country

    Purging foreigners is a certain intention if that’s the scenario (I won’t doubt it), but domestic businesses are as damaged as foreign-owned operations. The business resumptions don’t appear to disfavor foreign investments, tho the “expected” outcome is for them to voluntarily divest.

  124. AP says:
    @Beckow

    population in the south-east-Donbas plus is not uniformly hostile to Russia (an understatement!); in Finland that was not the case

    What percentage of Finns in those parts were Commie sympathisers plus ethnic Russians versus percentage of southeastern Ukrainians wanting annexation by Russia? I suspect it’s not a big difference (remember we are discussing the areas Russia is currently invading, not Crimea or Donetsk). About 5% to 10% of Eastern Ukrainians were supporting Russia. Vyborg was about 3% Russian; not unlikely for there to have been another 5% or so Commie sympathizers.

    weapons difference is more dramatic and it is too late to give Kiev better weapons

    Ukraine’s infantry is much better armed and with better weapons, but Russia has an advantage in long range missiles and airpower (yet hasn’t achieved uncontested air superiority). Advantage Russia I suppose, but of mixed nature.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  125. A123 says: • Website
    @Anatoly Karlin

    AK,

    If you are to reenter with 4CHAN style artwork. May I suggest some additional options?

    PEACE 😇

     
     

    • LOL: silviosilver
  126. Yevardian says:
    @prime noticer

    Well, that video explains a lot. Can’t say I blame Ritter for wanting to see Biden humiliated in Ukraine so badly, though factually it doesn’t change anything.

  127. Wielgus says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    There is a Chinese joke about what would happen if creatures from outer space landed in China. If they landed in Beijing, the locals would want to study them. If they landed in Shanghai, the locals would want to make commercial agreements with them. If they landed in Guangzhou (south China) the locals would want to eat them.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • LOL: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @A123
  128. A123 says: • Website
    @Wielgus

    There is a Chinese joke about what would happen if creatures from outer space landed in China. If they landed in Beijing, the locals would want to study them. If they landed in Shanghai, the locals would want to make commercial agreements with them. If they landed in Guangzhou (south China) the locals would want to eat them.

    If they landed in Wuhan (Central China) they would be caged and infected with experimental Coronavirus.

    Maybe that is the missing link. Bat like aliens, not terrestrial ones. 😂

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @songbird
  129. Beckow says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    …for Ukraine to win they only need to survive.

    You were claiming until recently that Kiev was winning the war, what happened? This could be an example of the celebrated Western self-criticism that you have suddenly discovered.

    Needless to say, “self-criticism” without consequences is just empty talk. The ability to produce self-medicating empty talk seems today the main Western characteristics; you nicely display it here.

  130. Beckow says:
    @AP

    Russia has an advantage in long range missiles and airpower

    In a war it is “contested” until one side wins. Russia also has an advantage in fuel and general supplies. If it goes on for months (years?) that will become important.

    Regarding comparative sympathies, two things I know about Finland of those years: most Russians there (like in Vyborg) were Whites, unlikely to side with the invading Bolshies who would kill them. Finnish Commies were also comprehensively exterminated after 1918, see here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finnish_Civil_War_prison_camps

    The ones who were still alive by 1940 would keep a very low profile. (By the way, it is well known that the Finnish massacres and camps for the Reds directly led Stalin to say “we need the same, and more”. Such is history.)

    In Ukraine’s east and south, the pro-Russians must be more numerous, Porky got less than 10% in most of the region. In a war it is hard to get true opinions. But I give you an example of Mariupol where there are dozens of videos of civilians coming out of shelters yelling abuse at Zelko and praising Russia. Are they all hired actors? In Kherson the pro-Kiev demos attract hundreds, that is quite impressive, but what about everyone else?

    I think you are overstating pro-Russians in 1940 Finland and understating pro-Russians in Ukraine today. We will soon find out.

    • Replies: @AP
  131. songbird says:
    @A123

    Some needs to watch that Chinese movie about the breakout in Wuhan and reduce the plot down for us.

  132. Sean says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    No, for Ukraine to win they only need to survive. Russia will go home. Ukrainians are in their home.

    Where they and Russia will be next door neighbours forever more.

    If they concede territory without joining NATO, they just open themselves up to another Russian invasion in the future, but make their own chances of surviving much worse in that conflict.

    Germany is not going to allow Ukraine to join Nato. If Ukraine somehow joined Germany and France would leave.

    Ukraine will emerge from this ohasee of the with their frontline forces intact, their opponent exhausted and a large number of serious and well-equipped reinforcements incoming

    I do not think the very astounding Russian withdrawal from around Kiev indicates a inability of Russia to see when it is flogging a dead horse. So them reinforcing failure in the Donbass to the extent they become exhausted is unlikely.

    If they didn’t want to be outmatched in two weeks time, they would have had to nationally mobilise a month ago.

    Maybe the Russians are hoping Ukraine will go on one of these combined arms maneuvere offensives we keep hearing about and give the Russian army a chance to use their artillery defensively. Can Ukraine drive the Russians back and even break and rout them? Quite possibly, but it is going to be like the Normandy fighting : men against machines.

    As for the West, seeing what an alternative “superpower” does when it acts, should remind people that we’re far from perfect, but we’re orders of magnitude better than the alternative.

    In the 60s the USSR came out of its isolation because saw an opportunity to spread its ideology throughout the world by fomenting revolution. But the tables have been turned and since 2004 it is the US that is on the ideological offensive with revolutions, especially in Ukraine.

    As for the West, seeing what an alternative “superpower” does when it acts, should remind people that we’re far from perfect, but we’re orders of magnitude better than the alternative.

    The invasion of Iraq and toppling of Saddam was done for indirect geopolitical reasons (the US army had to be got out of Saudi) and resulted in the deaths of how many Iraqis? Putin would say like Reagan did “we did what we had to do”.

    Definition of reason of state: a motive for governmental action based on alleged needs or requirements of a political state regardless of possible transgressions of the rights or the moral codes of individual persons

  133. @Wokechoke

    Transnistria has started mobilizing as we speak. The bigger target for them so far is Moldova, and Russia might want to use the state to trigger Romania’s military commitments to Moldova, and goad NATO into directly confronting Russian and Belarussian troops.

    Transnistria will lose 90% of their exports if Moldova ends up blockading them:
    Kaliningrad comes after all those.

  134. Dmitry says:
    @Ron Unz

    Maybe write something to summarize a bit Ritter and Kofman positions in the longer videos (which were more than an hour). At least in my case I didn’t had time to watch the long videos you posted. We are (some of us, definitely not AP and Mr Hack), people born in the 1990s. We became too addicted to videos with tanks explosions and pictures of maps, in our YouTube watching.

    If these are military experts (you also said Macgregor), there must be something very useful in their debate, unlike certain other (non-expert) people, who just contribute noise.

    Even if one is completely wrong, another is completely right. It could show some different style of reasoning in the military expert community.

    What are the falsifiable things you can extract from their description of the war, that could be interesting in the next months? Then we can compare with other people of the military expert community.

  135. Dmitry says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    cosmopolitan Jew inordinately interested in sneaker.. undecipherable

    Perhaps unintentionally from you, but my vanity experiences a complement, especially how you added the word “cosmopolitan”.

    My ego is vain enough, that from this single fact you add “cosmopolitan”, I started to feel more warmly to you again and almost wanted to apologize for saying you posted fake news last month (although posting fake news was still weak sauce).

    If my posts are giving an impression of “cosmopolitan”, then my writing skills must be improving. I remember a few years, my posts were only resulting in claims of “autism”. I used to have about five users claiming I have “autism”, which not the impression I wanted to create lol.

    I have less illusion about “Jew” than you, as I found many Jews are provincial rednecks, neither very intelligent, and not exactly a cosmopolitan either elite some people like to imagine. From your description of me, I’m envisaging a sophisticated financier with New York penthouse and underground bunker where he keeps WuTang first edition vinyl, carefully polished 1950s Porsche and fresh boxes of Nike Air Force 1.

    My origin is just lower class Russians, which disappear in the family tree, to small villages, i.e. with zero influence in history and world events . A grandfather with Jewish roots, which is more exciting, trace the roots to authentic Yiddish names like from Sholem Aleichem stories, but we couldn’t trace many generations, also to unknown villages, i.e. even non-Russian, Jewish branch in our family ancestry, are probably from an even more lower class tree than the Russian branch.

    When saw you in Unz Review, an exotic Middle Eastern looking person, “idiosyncratic” accent, telling the white rednecks that he is a “Russian nationalist”, I didn’t consider it undecipherable.

    I saw it was very postmodernist, Dada trolling of Russian nationalism, as expected from people of your origin, that has an education in San Francisco and London, and more or less the opposite of any stereotype of nowadays a little too much persecuted (although not without reason) Russian nationalists.

    The effect of your trolling, continues after you abandoned the forum, when user Yahye (apparently an Egyptian elite), has told me that he considers “Russians” to be “people of color” that he feels comradeship to, after he saw a picture of you. I considered his sentiment to be an honor and didn’t even say anything to damage it, but I believe AP has to disappoint him.

    But in your more aggressive comments of recent weeks, I’m assuming you are trolling but I’m starting to feel like Ray Liotta in a “Goodfellas” clips. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pfcy15ZUE2c.

  136. Dmitry says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Very talent people.

    It’s not related to talent.

    If you are owner of some agricultural animals, like a herd of sheep, then from their point of view, they just need to know which direction to walk where the dog does not bark at them. In the media, sheepdog is a well paid job, but I don’t think it needs a lot of meritocracy to attain. The sheepdogs don’t need to be very talented or sophisticated.

    After some time, people know the dogs’ sounds and what kind of response to associate them with.

    It’s possible even you can have a developed ideology among the government, like during collectivization of the 1930s, but the people being collectivized don’t need to understand it. Power has control of the seeds, and the people would starve without them, so you don’t need to teach them ideology. You just need to tell them which action to follow, i.e. to go to the collective farm, to get access to the seeds.

    propaganda wing; which seems to be run by Jews

    Extreme Zionism of Solovyov is just his personal view, not relevant for his job. It’s enough currently of a politically neutral area, where he can express his personal views, without disrupting his job.

    But if Israel was in defense alliance with Ukraine, then Solovyov would have to criticize Israel as part of his job. Even now, it’s a little borderline as Israeli is outsourcing things like Yandex.

  137. nickels says:

    The simple fact is that Russia cannot possibly win this war against the west.

    Russia is still mired in the old world superstition of Christianity and can not behave rationally.

    On the other hand, Europe has moved away from superstition and has embraced the raw and pure reason of the enlightenment and science.
    Science builds great armies and the technology of Europe will reign supreme.

    For example, consider this opening ceremony of a recent Tunnel project in Switzerland. What has Russia to compare to this?

    https://rumble.com/v12tpgg-switzerland-opens-tunnel.html

    • LOL: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Beckow
  138. songbird says:

    Any tabulation of the casualties and losses in the Falklands War should include the number of whales killed by both sides.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  139. AP says:
    @Beckow

    The ones who were still alive by 1940 would keep a very low profile.

    Sure, but there might have been some small 5% or so quietly waiting for the Bolsheviks.

    In Ukraine’s east and south, the pro-Russians must be more numerous, Porky got less than 10% in most of the region.

    Pro-Russian in the context of an invasion is not the same thing as not voting for Poroshenko. Even previously Russia-friendly politicians like Vilkul are actively involved in resisting the invader. The percentage of people wanting union with Russia in those areas was around 5% to 10% (lower n places like Kherson, higher in Mariupol).

    But I give you an example of Mariupol where there are dozens of videos of civilians coming out of shelters yelling abuse at Zelko and praising Russia.

    Sure, if 10% of the population in this region supports Russia one can easily find such examples.

    In Kherson the pro-Kiev demos attract hundreds, that is quite impressive, but what about everyone else?

    It’s telling that the Russians couldn’t find any crowds to support them at all in Kherson, unlike in Sevastopol. Kherson only saw large pro-Ukrainian demonstrations. Lucky for Russia that it was captured before the people could get armed on a mass scale, as in Kiev.

    I think you are overstating pro-Russians in 1940 Finland and understating pro-Russians in Ukraine today

    It was probably single digit percentage support in both cases, if it was a couple % higher in SE Ukraine it’s not a big difference.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  140. Beckow says:
    @nickels

    Unbeatable. I thought Swiss were more level-headed but when it comes to opening tunnels there is always some darkness. I can’t wait until that has an uncontested rule all over Europe.

    Where the f..k are the swarthy migrants when one needs them? They couldn’t possibly be worse…

    • Replies: @nickels
  141. @A123

    Somehow not surprised that RF energy export revenues is yet another touchy sore spot for you 😉

    Zero coviding (which is quite likely to spread further) at China’s coastal supercity level started way later than RF invasion, so RF export revenue data since invasion you threw around as some refuting has nothing to do with my own original point.

    All the RF pipe dreams of \$200 oil went down the drain when cumulative effect of Biden’s releasing of US SPR and zero coviding brought oil down from \$121 to hovering around \$100. Considering \$147 oil price in 2008 and subsequent cumulative inflation since it would not be much of exaggeration to say now oil costs about \$55-65 in 2008 dollars but with contracting RF oil production.

    RF coal exports are already banned to EU, so the only remaining bright spot for RF fanatics is continuing, but shrinking (even if way too slowly) EU dependency of RF natgas imports and propaganda victories about so called rouble payments convoluted financial schemings which in fact did not change much in essence at all.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @A123
  142. @Dmitry

    Take it from me as an East Asian, Karlin didn’t jump out at me as “not looking Russian enough”.

    And its not like these things aren’t common, Sun Yat-sen is from Guangdong, regarded by many from core Han regions as full of uncultured Austronesian untermensch, managed to (semi) successfully shill for Han nationalism, later even “Five Races” ROC nationalism, and still considered the father of “Taiwan”.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  143. @Thulean Friend

    idk, maybe Xi is a true believer of “population is power” trope, so he does not want to lose that 0,5-0,8% of his own overall aging people considering wonky effectiveness of his own native vax and having expanding India next door? Probably looking at neighbouring RF with its population lax attitudes which resulted in more than one million deaths and cratering average life expectancy levels was not very impressed also and wants to avoid it even at the cost of economical contraction?

    One more thing – CCP wants to be or at least look better than Taiwan at all imaginable costs and Taiwan is having huge outbreak right now at the moment too, so they probably will proudly report and base their own inner CCP propaganda around the fact they kept own population “more healthy” than those westernized separatist degenerates from Taipei lol

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @Thulean Friend
  144. @sudden death

    China has more trading volume with — Malaysia, than Russia. It never made sense to get too close.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_China

    PRC’s future is Eurasia integration and CJK-RCEP integration (greater free trade zone than EU and NAFTA). The smart move for Russia is get a foothold in the latter, NE Asia.

    • Agree: Thulean Friend
  145. @Anatoly Karlin

    Beijing flanked by Bohai Sea a more secure position than Shanghai, and a centerpiece of NE Asia CJK integration. The Chinese are livid at Japan for coaxing an apology from Ukraine for Hirohito-Hitler comparison.

    The smart move is for Russia to play a conciliatory between China and Japan, say, give back the Kurile Islands and tell the Japanese it was favor that can be reciprocated to PRC.

    The dick move would be further incite Sino-Japanese enmity. That worked in 1936 in Xi’an Incident when Soviets/CPC turned KMT against Japan, but it sure didn’t help Russia much in the long run.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @songbird
  146. nickels says:
    @Beckow

    Well, Russia is the third Rome.
    Maybe its time for Rome to stuff the Pagans back into the can throughout Europe once again.

  147. Dmitry says:
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    I guess the closer analogy is white nationalism movement in America, rather than Taiwan (Taiwan would be like if anti-Bolshevik forces ruled on an island after the civil war) . Equivalent probably doesn’t exist in China, and perhaps a sign of the Chinese maturity.

    Karlin didn’t jump out at me as “not looking Russian enough”.

    There is ethnic meaning of Russian and citizenship meaning. Russia has hundreds of nationalities, of every appearance. But the Russian people, only in specifically national sense (let’s say old words), are a European race, with European appearance only.

    If you don’t have European appearance, nobody will consider you Russian in this sense, at least for the older generation of people. People who were living in Soviet times, when ethnic categorization was important. Older people see nationality as one of the most important things description of peoples’ appearance. Therefore, brown people, are not considered Russian in the old sense, even if they have Russian citizenship.

    But modern Russian imperialism, is including all the races in the Russian Federation, as well as some outside it. Putin is claim that Russians and Ukrainians are the same people, as justification for invasion of Ukraine. So, it is a civil war. But the other half of it, is Russian imperialism in opposition to “nationalists, Nazis, etc”, and in Russian media, always “fighting nationalists”.

    So in the current war, Putin is saying, with some mix of contradictions..

    Putin said, “When I see examples of such heroism as the feat of a young man — Nurmagomed Gadzhimagomedov, a native of Dagestan, a Lak by nationality, our other soldiers, I want to say: I am a Lak, I am a Dagestani, I am a Chechen, Ingush, Russian, Tatar, Jew, Mordvin, Ossetian.” Putin said, stressing that it is simply impossible to list all of Russia’s more than 300 national and ethnic groups. “I am proud that I am part of this world, part of the mighty, strong and multinational people of Russia. At the same time, I will never give up my belief that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. Even despite that some residents of Ukraine are intimidated, many are fooled by Nazi, nationalist propaganda, and someone consciously, of course, follow the path of Bandera.”
    https://gazetaingush.ru/news/gorzhus-tem-chto-ya-chast-moguchego-silnogo-mnogonacionalnogo-naroda-rossii-putin

  148. @sudden death

    zero coviding brought oil down from \$121 to hovering around \$100

    A more rational way of seeing it is lockdowns as extreme fuel rationing. Anything but “containing” COVID!

    • Agree: Barbarossa
  149. Pixo says:
    @Dmitry

    Karlin is 3/4 east slavic and 1/4 muslim. His 23andme isn’t great because it is more focused on central and Western Europeans but confirms.

    He looks very Ashkenazi to me. Much more Ashkenazi than me, who is 50%, but look Alpinid.

    I did mine then, and without having to pay to get retested, they greatly increased the specificity of the result. The jew portion is the same, but the German and English results have specific counties.

  150. Dmitry says:
    @sudden death

    Part of the problem for China to end “zero covid”, can be vaccine efficacy.

    If they are not confident about the efficacy of vaccine they used, but they do not want to import foreign vaccines. Therefore, they would need to develop new vaccines. Taiwan, to compare, has used Western vaccines.

    However, there is one study claiming that Sinovac is 98% protection, which would be sufficient if true.
    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1256596.shtml

    China should now probably go to not such a “zero covid” which requires quarantine that could cause industrial shut down, but “semi-zero covid” strategy, with installation of ventilation, PPE and more engineering (rather than lockdown) solutions.

    • Replies: @216
  151. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Your idealistic view

    CJK-RCEP integration (greater free trade zone than EU and NAFTA)

    Remember all the talk of Russia being able to blackmail Germany with gas before the war in Ukraine? This will happen to Japan, S Korea & Australia when China and the US decide war should come first.

    China’s past and future is putting autarky before the vassals and barbarians. Those bring in only superfluous tribute.

    Kurile Islands

    Japan’s Diplomatic Bluebook now says the Kurile Islands are illegally occupied by Russia.

    After the war with NATO starts Russia would “liberate Ezo” and the Ainus from their Japanese “colonizers”, and replace them with Russian ones, of course, basically doing what the Soviet could not try because of American nukes. I’d definitely stand on the side of Japan for this because Russia would be raving mad, but Japan’s land forces aren’t as good as S Korea’s.

    Sino-Japanese enmity

    The greatest fanner of Sino-Japanese enmity is of course, the American military bases and the American-loyalist Lib-Dem elites. China ought to massively bankroll the Communists and use subtle propaganda, the way Russia did to raise up the European New Right, and if pro-Chinese political forces gain power, then drop out of the mutual defense pact that obligates Japan to defend a province of China from China in case the US decides so.

  152. @Yellowface Anon

    Meant to write

    Your idealistic view is only viable in a world where peaceful cooperation wins the day. We don’t live in that world and very likely the states espousing these ideas will be eliminated or undermined.

  153. songbird says:
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    When you get down to it, Kurils seem more strategically important to Russia than Japan.

    I can’t see Russia even contemplating giving them back, unless Japan kicks out American troops. Even then, hard to see a value proposition where they would benefit from it.

    Doesn’t seem to be a strategic replacement for them, and that is not even counting the potential natural resources. IMO, Japan missed its best opportunity to work a deal, which was the Yeltsin years.

  154. 216 says: • Website
    @Dmitry

    China should now probably go to not such a “zero covid” which requires quarantine that could cause industrial shut down, but “semi-zero covid” strategy, with installation of ventilation, PPE and more engineering (rather than lockdown) solutions.

    Covid is over in Redstan. No more silly blue mouth diapers here.

    • Agree: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @AP
    , @A123
  155. 216 says: • Website
    @songbird

    unless Japan kicks out American troops

    They’d face a coup d’etat and an embargo if they even thought about doing that.

  156. Mikel says:
    @Yevardian

    there I disagree with Mikel, especially considering his language is both difficult, unique and endangered

    You have a point, certainly, but life is complicated. I have 3 children with 3 different women and that is about the only thing I have in common with Trump so I try to do what I think is best for each of them, under their respective circumstances.

    The Basque language is not endangered these days anyway. It’s survived for millennia under much worse circumstances. Some of its current problems actually stem from its recent growth. We used to have our beautiful dialects that made communication amongst us often difficult but that’s how it had always been and we were happy enough. Then our experts half a century ago decided to create a Unified Basque ex novo and that is what people have been compulsorily taught at school in the past decades. Since most of them have an immigrant background and didn’t learn Basque at home, modern Basque has become a rather rootless speech that lacks the old spontaneity and complexity of the dialects it is slowly replacing. Quite sad, I think, but perhaps Hochdeutsch, modern Hebrew and others had to go through such a period.

  157. AP says:
    @216

    I saw no masks in Poland, except for a couple of American tourists in Krakow.

  158. Checks date. March 22. I guess someone can’t count:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/22/russian-invaders-have-three-days-of-supplies-left-says-ukraine-military

    The smarter ones are now saying that Russia has no more than 30-days supplies left … at least that gives people time to forget the stupid things they said.

  159. @sudden death

    maybe Xi is a true believer of “population is power” trope, so he does not want to lose that 0,5-0,8% of his own overall aging people considering wonky effectiveness of his own native vax and having expanding India next door? Probably looking at neighbouring RF with its population lax attitudes which resulted in more than one million deaths and cratering average life expectancy levels was not very impressed also and wants to avoid it even at the cost of economical contraction?


    Foregone births is a much bigger problem if you’re concerned with population size. True, most countries saw Covid-related birth declines but for Sweden at least we actually saw a minor bump last year; our decline wasn’t that significant to begin with. China’s plunge was massive by comparison – and it shows no signs of letting up. Some of that fall was probably inevitable even without a Covid, but their policies massively exacerbated it.

    For comparison, India has about ~24 million births per year, so the differential is gigantic. Even if you assume China would be 3X richer than India forever, if India keeps this relative birth ratios in check we’d still be looking at the two countries being quite close in power.

    FWIW, I think the distance will shrink but India has a decent shot at keeping it 2X bigger, because I don’t think China’s decline is finished just yet. Wouldn’t be surprised if we saw births go down to even 8 million in China. 16 million for India is probably the floor.

    IMO, saving boomers on the altar of foregone births is a terrible choice yet China keeps doubling down.

    One more thing – CCP wants to be or at least look better than Taiwan at all imaginable costs and Taiwan is having huge outbreak right now at the moment too, so they probably will proudly report and base their own inner CCP propaganda around the fact they kept own population “more healthy” than those westernized separatist degenerates from Taipei lol

    That sounds plausible, East Asians tend to be pretty obsessed with “saving face” and prestige – China perhaps more than most. And the Taiwan angle doesn’t help. Though I think this is probably not the driving force so much as a marginal concern, but it could well be a factor, albeit a minor one.

  160. @Dmitry

    When saw you in Unz Review, an exotic Middle Eastern looking person, “idiosyncratic” accent, telling the white rednecks that he is a “Russian nationalist”, I didn’t consider it undecipherable.

    What’s the backstory of his accent? Did he only go abroad after the age of 16 or something? That’s the only way I can see someone retaining such a strong Russian accent. If he was younger than that, it seems astonishing to me. Even the most anti-assimilationist parents cannot hope to prevent their children from picking up the local inflections. (His accent sounds distinctly Russian to me, not some “local flavor” accent that people of 3rd and even 4th generation immigrant stock sometimes retain.)

    The effect of your trolling, continues after you abandoned the forum, when user Yahye (apparently an Egyptian elite), has told me that he considers “Russians” to be “people of color” that he feels comradeship to, after he saw a picture of you.

    Lol, hardly a surprise that the internet’s premier racial straw-clutcher would feel that way, even if he was pouring it on thick with “people of color” remark (assuming he actually made it, and it’s not just your own gloss).

    If they ever remake “My Fair Lady,” with the by now customary replacement of a white character with a POC, I suggest, in Yahya’s honor, an Arab trying to learn the Received Pronunciation with the phrase: “It is plain as rain they can pass in Spain.”

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    , @Thulean Friend
  161. Yevardian says:
    @silviosilver

    @Dmitri

    “idiosyncratic” accent

    Well this is curious, Dmitri seems to be implying AK’s has an idiosyncratic accent in Russian, if I’m not mistaken. I personally can’t judge, Russian is my fourth or fifth language and I’m hardly native-level for picking up accents, if they’re not super obvious like central asians or most caucasians. But certainly even Gerard, hardly an ‘eager American’ noticed his thick accent in English immediately. Whatever, it doesn’t really matter, just curious.

    On another note, notice how older Russians and ex-sovokos all learned a form of RP decades out of date even when they learned it in the 70s and 80s? I can’t say I dislike it, but I definitely can’t listen to it without smirking.
    Reminds me of another thing, I have quite a few other emigre friends (generally not Armenians though), the ones whose parents insisted on speaking to their children in English mostly ended up imposing their own often bizzare forms of pseudo-American/RP English in their kids, whilst they didn’t learn their parents’ mother tongues either.

    On an unrelated note, this week I sped-read in 1-2 days through Peter Zeihan’s (never heard of him until utu posted some provocatively titled video) most recent book, Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World .
    I suppose it’s about what I expected, for better and (mostly) worse. It genuinely does contain a fair amount of very interesting speculation, but its written in the same style as the man’s talks, excessively colloquial (for the subject) and clearly aimed at average political science undergraduates, or retiring boomers who watched their fill of D-Day documentaries and consider it an real achievement to read 2-4 books a year. Definitely his book was extremely short on precise details and especially names, particularly foreign ones that might make his proudly monoglot American audience’s head hurt.

    Basically if no one is already familiar with Zeihan, he basically predicts a future where the USA has chosen to retrench its core intereststo solely the Anglosphere nations, and the global Hobbesian war of all-against-all that he sees resulting from this. He also takes it as a given that China will implode just as spectacularly as it has risen in the past 40 years, with mass-famines, political balkanisation, the works. I don’t pretend to understand anything about that part of the world so I can’t really comment, although judging from his comments on Russia (below), I have a fair amount of doubt regarding how honest that analysis is.

    In general I didn’t find that much that I found really objectionable, though his chapter on Russia in particular was peppered with minor errors (calling Chechens a ‘Turkic’ people, etc) and old Russophobic canards about only a 1/3rd of Tsarist soldiers in WW1 being issued with rifles, etc. In fact his level of barely contained glee on forecasting Russia’s disastrous future made me understand people like Karlin a lot more, I have no doubt he represents establishment views in this respect.

    Although to his credit, I can’t call him the Unz-dot-com equivalent of ‘Nazi’ either, as he quite bluntly described Israel as evolving into an apartheid state, much worse than anything that existed in South Africa. He also implied that following American global withdrawal, Israel would almost certainly commit major atrocities, but in the new geopolitical environment, nobody would really care.

    He follows his mentor Friedman somewhat in still predicting Japan as a regional hegemon (at least stopping short of war with the US, lol), if only because other states will look to it as a natural leader following what he considers China’s violent collapse. Seemed pretty doubtful to me.

    Probably his best chapters were on Germany and the Middle-East (which he admitted he took a lot of assistance on.. at least, I found it a lot more realistic than his predictions for Asia or Russia). He described in a world where the US had largely washed its hands of the region, it would rely on Iran ‘to build relationships with other countries in the region’ and defer to Saudi Arabia ‘as a goon squad you go to smash things up’ or something along those lines. He didn’t make this comparison, but I immediately thought that mirror quite closely America’s historic relations with Egypt and Israel, respectively.

    He also practically didn’t mention Africa whatsoever, although indirectly he basically forecasted via comments on the Middle-East that that continent would suffer a mass-famine unprecedented in history. Reminded me of Houellebecq’s ‘optimistic’ predictions for France in La carte et le territoire.

    Would I recommend it? Well, it’s better light-reading than whatever Shamir, rightoid garbage like Mark Stein, or some MSM hack is coming out with nowdays, you can pirate it from libgen easily enough. Just keep in mind that although the writing style might insult your intelligence, there are interesting takes from it, but unforunately, it lists practically no references.

  162. Coconuts says:

    https://unherd.com/2022/04/is-ukraine-just-a-white-mans-war/

    Having grown up during the Cold War, the son of parents who toiled under the British colonial yoke, at the very least I speak for a generation that believed that the only bulwark against American imperialism, or the suppression of black sovereignty, or European neo-colonialism, or support for British and South African apartheid was the existence of a nation with the balls to stand up to Western decadence.

    Hmmm.

  163. German_reader says:
    @Coconuts

    or support for British and South African apartheid

    British apartheid? When and where exactly did Britain run an apartheid system? Certainly not during the life time of this professionally aggrieved Afro-activist (apparently born in the 1970s). Instead the British state with its race relations acts was aiming to enforce the opposite of apartheid. So just another piece of mythology for PoC victimhood.

  164. A123 says: • Website
    @sudden death

    All the RF pipe dreams of \$200 oil went down the drain when cumulative effect of Biden’s releasing of US SPR and zero coviding brought oil down from \$121 to hovering around \$100.

    — Is there any evidence RF was intentionally targeting \$200 oil? No.
    — The effect of Not-The-President Biden’s SPR releases is negligible.
    — If China permentry stops their economy that would be bad for Russia long term oil sales to China. Does anyone think it is permanent? No.

    Crowning over temporary a situation, leaves you holding a non-existent victory.

    PEACE 😇

  165. German_reader says:
    @songbird

    I thought you were making this up, but apparently it really happened:
    https://www.news.com.au/world/british-navy-mistakes-whales-for-submarines-and-torpedoes-them-killing-three-during-falklands-war/news-story/92e895efd40db654fa41a62a3312f4c0

    I guess you could count them as neutral collateral damage, like Swiss or Irish killed in bombing raids during WW2? So there’d have to be a category for “neutral victims (at least three whales)” on the relevant Wikipedia page.

    • Agree: songbird
    • Replies: @songbird
  166. A123 says: • Website
    @216

    For the U.S. as a whole ~60% of the population has caught WUHAN-19. That number jumps to 75-80% for student aged youth.

    MAGA states accept science. The CCP Laboratory created pandemic is effectively over. For the bulk of the population, natural immunity is stronger than anything received via an experimental jab. The only people who should take mRNA vaccine are elderly with preexisting conditions.

    Bluestan Leftoids are science deniers leading brain dead sheeple. They willingly sacrifice themselves upon the alter of Pfizer’s profit margin. This makes no sense to anyone rational. However, serving CCP Elites and multinational MegaCorporations are core points of dogma for the SJW/DNC.

    PEACE 😇

  167. @Yevardian

    Basically if no one is already familiar with Zeihan, he basically predicts a future where the USA has chosen to retrench its core intereststo solely the Anglosphere nations, and the global Hobbesian war of all-against-all that he sees resulting from this. He also takes it as a given that China will implode just as spectacularly as it has risen in the past 40 years, with mass-famines, political balkanisation, the works. I don’t pretend to understand anything about that part of the world so I can’t really comment, although judging from his comments on Russia (below), I have a fair amount of doubt regarding how honest that analysis is.

    Peter Zeihan is a hustler. His purpose in life is to hustle dollars for Lockheed, Boeing, \$Defense_Contract_Corporation, and Peter Zeihan.

    Everybody would do better if they had a purpose in life. Half of my friends at least would give me a really weird look if they heard me use the phrase purpose in life.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
  168. @Coconuts

    Does anybody know any negroes? If you had a picnic at the terminus with free chicken and watermelon you could probably gather a few hundred negroes to protest government money going to Ukraine for a white man’s war.

    Also you would find your name moving up the CIA enemies list but if you are on the top of it anyway you might as well go out guns blazing. : )

  169. @Dmitry

    Sun is a loose analogy to Karlin, I should give you more context. Sun Yat-sen is considered the founding father of both PRC and ROC-Taiwan for leading the Xinhai Revolution that overthrew the Manchu Qing Dynasty. He came from a marginal Han region and spoke a dialect unintelligible to Mandarin speakers– Cantonese.

    Cantonese tend to be darker, smaller, beardless and there is mutual discrimination between northerners and southerners, former Mongol commenter AltanBakshi use to say that southern Chinese are gay. But Sun nevertheless successfully led Han Chinese overthrow of Manchus.


    Sun (right) in Tokyo with his Japanese friends. Sun was patronized by the Japanese in leading Han nationalism against Manchus but Sun later turned around and said Manchuria and Mongolia belonged to China too, and furthermore cooperated with the Soviets, which the Japanese considered as betrayal.

    So Sun transformed from a Han nationalist — to a ROC nationalist* that claims all former Qing territory, Manchuria/Mongolia/Xinjiang/Tibet.

    Whereas Karlin I think has only ever claimed as a RusFed nationalist (and not a Russian nationalist), which can include Caucasoids like him and Mongoloids like AltanBakshi.

    *ROC nationalism is basically congruent with PRC nationalism. Han nationalism 皇汉 huanghan “Imperial Han” is discouraged by the PRC because its considered chauvinistic against minorities and puts PRC’s territorial claims to question; only PRC nationalism is acceptable.

    • Thanks: Thulean Friend
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @Dmitry
  170. Sean says:
    @Beckow

    There is no way to fight against nuclear weapons, As Lord Mountbatten said shortly before he was (according to Enoch Powell) assassinated by the CIA “Nuclear weapons have no military purpose, wars cannot be fought with them”. The use of a nuke–even a mine–would end the conventional was because once you go nuclear you go nuclear for good., America is not going thermonuclear for anyone.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  171. @Yellowface Anon

    The greatest fanner of Sino-Japanese enmity is of course, the American

    This is incorrect, go read Liu Zhongjing’s The Great Game of the Far East in the 20th Century – Japan and the Soviet Union 二十世紀遠東的博弈 — 日本與蘇聯

    There’s research indicating that Zhang Xueliang and Song Qingling, rather than merely pro-Soviet/CPC, were outright Soviet agents.

    There we go again, first thing after breakout of Russo-Ukraine hostilities, Karlin tweeted some nonsense about PRC launching first strike on Japan. PRC does four times as much trade with Japan than Russia.

    • Replies: @sudden death
  172. RSDB says:
    @Barbarossa

    I happen to know dowsing is still used (or was c. 2017) by development agencies in the part of Sri Lanka mentioned in the paper, if I’m ever in Sri Lanka again I will look more into it.

    Thanks again, this topic is very fascinating!

    As I said before, I’ll devise a rigorous verifiable test around here soon and give you an update on it’s results.

    Please do, and try to get a neutral observer to document it and so on– but you probably know all that part of it already.

    • Thanks: Barbarossa
  173. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    There we go again, first thing after breakout of Russo-Ukraine hostilities, Karlin tweeted some nonsense about PRC launching first strike on Japan.

    It is not just some nonsense, RF-ians simply are desperately wishing that CCP’ied China started some significant aggresive action as soon as possible, cause it would relieve the pressure from their clumsy actions against UA, but zero coviding is shutting that possibility down.

    No mental problem after, just cure it with starting fantasy about winning fights against Chinese svidomists and it really being crypto preparations for street fightings in Taipei 😉

  174. Beckow says:
    @Mr. Hack

    jacobmag“? what is that?

    But ok, what you quoted could be said about almost any country. Definitely about Ukraine, Bulgaria, Baltics, some also about UK, Canada (Justin is quite something, isn’t he?). In Slovakia the same and worse is said daily about the current government: meaningless cliches thrown at other side in the political arena.

    The question is: what are the general attitudes by eastern Ukrainians towards Russia? In a war most prefer to play it safe. There is nothing to show “uniform hostility” towards Russia, or “uniform support“. We have the previous elections that were for the pro-Russian side and small numbers fighting on each side. Plus selective videos that may not represent what most people think, I have seen both.

    It is clearly not like Finland in 1940 – that may fit better Galicia and Kiev, but not the south-east. When you base your analysis on faulty analogies it backfires.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  175. Beckow says:
    @AP

    there might have been some small 5% or so quietly waiting for the Bolsheviks.

    I have been quietly waiting for Alicia Vikander to move next door. Oh, and also waiting for Jesus. Most people don’t know and it has had no impact. But I will continue quietly waiting.

    The percentage of people wanting union with Russia in those areas was around 5% to 10%

    Wars change everything: in the near future it could be zero or 90% based on who prevails. It is called coming to Jesus moment, a sudden realization that all is different and life has to go on. (I know, too much Jesus. It is Easter and I am still giddy.)

    ..Lucky for Russia that Kherson was captured before the people could get armed on a mass scale, as in Kiev

    What? More lucky for the people in Kherson, taking potshots at guys with big guns is a dangerous sport.

    It is good to know that Vilkul is still resisting, Vilkul rules! But I have also heard that Vilkul’s wife is looking for him to have a talk about all that “resisting“. But you can’t believe all you hear.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Wielgus
    , @AP
  176. songbird says:
    @German_reader

    I believe the Argentines also killed one. Their sub San Luis (old German hardware) hit something with a Mark 37 torpedo (old American hardware).

    • Replies: @German_reader
  177. A123 says: • Website
    @Beckow

    The percentage of people wanting union with Russia in those areas was around 5% to 10%

    Wars change everything: in the near future it could be zero or 90% based on who prevails

    It comes back to what I have been describing as Winning The Peace.

    There are, as yet unconfirmed, reports that power and water are once again on in the parts of Mariupol most distant from the Azov steel works. Infrastructure reconstruction that provides basic livability is a huge first step.

    In areas of the East, Winning The Peace is very achievable. Ukie Maximalists, like TL, do not want to face it… But Russia is now in their new home of Mariupol. They will never leave, unless forced out.

    PEACE 😇

  178. Mr. Hack says:
    @Beckow

    In Slovakia the same and worse is said daily about the current government: meaningless cliches thrown at other side in the political arena.

    Really? First, Pirani does an admirable job of backing up his accusations with concrete examples. It’s really you that are bantering around meaningless cliches that don’t add up to anything worth contemplating. So, you really believe that the government and political repression found in the two new “republics” are analogous to what one can find within Slovakia? I’ll give you a chance to respond, but from your initial reply I can tell you from the onset that I’m not really looking forward to to spending much time debating these ridiculous notions of yours. I do realize that you wrote that things like this are written about daily in Slovakia and therefore may not actually reflect the reality that is to be found on the ground. There may even be some small truth to this, but the fact that you’re trying to insinuate that the authors opinions aren’t to be considered as accurate because others may be writing BS, is BS in itself. Remember, Pirani “does an admirable job of backing up his accusations with concrete examples.”

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    , @Beckow
  179. @sudden death

    I’d wish for Taiwan to peacefully reintegrate when secessionism die off in the long term. But maybe Xi also reads AK and he’s more convinced military unification is a good idea after being impressed by what Russia says about Russia’s performance, and everyone in China must cope with the new isolationism.

  180. A123 says: • Website

    Another country breaks away from EU ‘sanctions’: (1)

    Greek Energy Minister Kostas Skrekas has claimed that the country will still pay for gas from Russian energy giant Gazprom but claimed the country will do so in a way that does not violate existing sanctions against Russia.

    Minister Skrekas stated that the payment for April’s gas, paid for by the utility DEPA, would be paid on time on May 25th but refused to disclose which currency the payment for the gas would be made in.

    When will honesty break out? Europe disagrees with the EU.

    I suggest a new name — the European non-Union [EnU].

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2022/04/29/greece-claims-it-will-pay-for-russian-gas-without-violating-sanctions/

  181. Wielgus says:
    @Beckow

    In The Outlaw Josey Wales, one character who operates a ford just after the US Civil War explains that depending on who uses his ferry across the river, he sings Battle Hymn Of The Republic or Dixie. He is presented as a despicable opportunist but then again that is how a lot of people make it through wars.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @Beckow
  182. Wielgus says:
    @Mr. Hack

    I knew Pirani in the 1990s. An ex-member of that mad British Trotskyist sect the WRP.

  183. German_reader says:
    @songbird

    Pretty tragic. Falklands war was a fairly stupid war anyway which only happened because of miscalculations on both sides (with the Argentine junta obviously being most culpable), the death of those neutral whales makes it even sadder.
    Had never thought about whales and submarines before, apparently it was an issue during the world wars:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2021/04/14/u-boat-or-whale---secret-wwii-report-explains-the-difference/?sh=36d7a26b18a8

    • Thanks: songbird
  184. Mikel says:
    @Yevardian

    I have quite a few other emigre friends (generally not Armenians though), the ones whose parents insisted on speaking to their children in English mostly ended up imposing their own often bizzare forms of pseudo-American/RP English in their kids, whilst they didn’t learn their parents’ mother tongues either.

    That happens, especially at certain cultural levels, but do you speak like your parents? I certainly don’t. Even though my parents were not foreign immigrants, they also brought their village accents and forms of speech, both in Basque and Spanish, that I soon learned to avoid.

    It’s difficult to avoid passing some of your speech mannerisms on to your children but, as Silvio says, it’s also very difficult to prevent them from acquiring the local accent, unless they live in isolated ethnic enclaves. Even young Hispanics around here who live surrounded mostly by their peers tend to speak clean English if they lived all their lives in the US.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
  185. Wokechoke says:
    @Wielgus

    Charon sang to the dead too.

  186. German_reader says:

    Article in right-wing German newspaper Junge Freiheit calling for sending heavy weapons to Ukraine and integrating Ukraine into a “Europe of nations”:
    https://jungefreiheit.de/debatte/kommentar/2022/moskau-angst-atomkrieg/

    Wouldn’t be remarkable, if the author Stefan Scheil weren’t a somewhat notorious revisionist historian, who’s written books about topics like Poland’s alleged responsibility for WW2. He’s also an AfD politician. We’re living in strange times.

    • LOL: Thulean Friend
    • Replies: @sudden death
  187. songbird says:

    Kellogg’s recently put pronouns on their breakfast cereals aimed at children.

    From a nationalist perspective, is there really any benefit to having these giant, woke conglomerates that make consumer products? I feel like it’s obvious that they are more likely to be woke-captured, than smaller, lesser-known brands.

    If there is not a systematic economic theory designed to prevent capture by wokes, runaway signaling, and general parasitism, there should be.

  188. @silviosilver

    Did he only go abroad after the age of 16 or something? That’s the only way I can see someone retaining such a strong Russian accent. If he was younger than that, it seems astonishing to me. Even the most anti-assimilationist parents cannot hope to prevent their children from picking up the local inflections. (His accent sounds distinctly Russian to me, not some “local flavor” accent that people of 3rd and even 4th generation immigrant stock sometimes retain.)

    You’re exaggerating. Found this recent interview of his (I haven’t listened to him in years, so I have pretty “fresh ears” so to speak) that I fished out of the bottomless bitchute sea:



    Video Link
    If you try hard enough, you might notice a tinge of an accent but it isn’t nearly as dramatic as you claim. I only watched the first few mins, since I only wanted to check the supposed accent, but he mentions he landed in the UK at age 6 and then left a decade later to America early on. I don’t think this is the mystery you purport it to be. Voices range in all sorts of ways.

    • Replies: @AP
  189. Beckow says:
    @Mr. Hack

    …Pirani “does an admirable job of backing up his accusations with concrete examples.”

    Admirable? By whom? Since I am not in a position to evaluate Donbas, I will compare what I know. I am not claiming one or the other, it is as you said:

    things like this are written about daily in Slovakia and therefore may not actually reflect the reality that is to be found on the ground.

    Here :
    routinely intimidated organized labor and political dissidents
    Our main opposition party (left) has its main protagonists in jail or charged with the crime of “releasing private information about opponents during previous election”. Yes, they did – they accused some people of “corruption” and gave a few examples (seemingly true) during pre-election debates.
    The second strongest opposition party (right) has been banned outright for speaking badly about Romas and the benefits they get. Intimidating enough?

    institutionalized violence, and trampled on human rights: see above.

    collapse of industry Bingo: our actual industrial activity is down with many mfg plants shut down or working part time.

    catastrophic fall in living standards. Not yet, but some drop and it is accelerating.

    I am sure similar stuff can be said about Ukraine or Bulgaria. Then there is Justin Trudeau with his uber-liberal C19 suppression etc….It is an increasingly ugly world out there.

    My point is that the accusations like these are essentially political and very common. You believe some and ignore others. Whether it is worse in Donbas is relative: worse than what? Interestingly enough even you or Pirani don’t claim that Crimea is worse. What if the people in eastern Ukraine look at Crimea as a model and not Donbas?

    • Replies: @Wielgus
  190. Beckow says:
    @Wielgus

    that is how a lot of people make it through wars.

    Today more than in the past. It is relatively easy to isolate and keep your head down.

    I am constantly shocked by how small the numbers are in this war: maybe a few hundred thousand active participants on each side – out of 40 million and 150 million. The casualties estimates are in thousands, or 10-20k. This has had little impact on 97-99% of the population – other than some have moved to safer places.

    That shows a high level of cynicism and distrust of all sides. The dreams of people’s war or endless resistance don’t match what we see on the ground.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
  191. @German_reader

    idk, imho it seems way more natural for those types to return into Brest-Litovsk circa 1918 mindset than to be voluntary supporting Putin’s version of multi-culti “antiNazi” imperialism…

  192. Wielgus says:
    @Beckow

    A lot of these things could be said of Turkey. The USA representative of the CHP, Turkey’s official opposition party, was arrested by police today when he got off a plane from the USA at Istanbul airport.

  193. One thing that has changed massively since the early 2000s antiwar movement is that liberal channels are more bloodthirsty than Fox News these days. Some of their TV pundits even bring out the old talking point that conservatives used to employ – “they hate America!” – against anyone daring to question a long proxy war strategy. I was re-watching some of the clips from those years a few weeks ago, and it was jarring to see the contrast with today. Someone like Colbert actually used to challenge the system, rather than amplify their talking points.

    Yesterday, USG announced Disinformation Governance Board, a de facto censorship ministry run out of the Dept. of Homeland Security. It obliterated any remaining pretense that US liberals are liberal in any way that actually matters anymore.

    The Grayzone is getting harassed by some seemingly private entity working on behalf of the USG that demands “explanations” for them having the temerity to be independent.

    I’m increasingly skeptical that the Musk thing will materially change matters.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Yellowface Anon
  194. Wielgus says:
    @Beckow

    The Russian Civil War and the Soviet-Polish War were both fought by comparatively small forces. Tukhachevsky, a former Tsarist officer who commanded Soviet troops against Poland, was heard to lament that he did not have the huge numbers of cavalry the Tsarist army had had in 1914. The Red cavalry he had were a scratch force of Cossacks and other cavalry, and not very numerous.

    • Replies: @AP
  195. Ever so slowly reality is leaking through:

  196. Matra says:
    @Ron Unz

    A month or so before the war Kofman pointed out that Edward Luttwak and others who dismissed the possibility of war are going to have egg on their faces. His arguments were the main reason I also thought there’d be a war. That said, he strikes me as being a bit inflexible in his thinking. Once he makes a prediction he doubles, triples down, and comes across as though he’s more interested in confirming his predictions rather than reconsidering them in light of new facts.

    On Mearsheimer I’m surprised there wasn’t more of an effort to get him ‘cancelled’. When that ‘leading Ukraine down the primrose path’ video got famous there were several days of, what I thought were, organised attacks on him from Anne Applebaum, the former leader of Estonia and others, as well as some petition at his university to have him removed, but it all petered out as quickly as it began. I’m sure there are bitter elements in the US mediasphere who have unfinished business with him over that book he wrote with Stephen Walt.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @Ron Unz
  197. A123 says: • Website
    @Thulean Friend

    One thing that has changed massively since the early 2000s antiwar movement is that liberal channels are more bloodthirsty than Fox News these days. Some of their TV pundits even bring out the old talking point that conservatives used to employ

    The “Liberal” Party has always been the War Party. NeoConDemocrats impacting the GOP to the point where GW Bush started a war is the anomaly. Bill Kristol and George Will becoming voices of DNC dogmatic orthodoxy is a return to historical norms. Holdouts like Cheney and Romney should change parties, bit will probably choose K \$treet instead.

    PEACE 😇

  198. @Thulean Friend

    might be better to see American political alignment in terms of deviation from the neoliberal imperialist orthodoxy, given how close Dem & GOP are to each other. https://www.politicalcompass.org/uselection2020

  199. utu says:
    @Yevardian

    Thanks for reading Peter Zeihan’s book and writing brief report. You know what I think of him: charlatan and hustler though a very talented one.

    Peter Zeihan : How China Will Die

    youtube.com/watch?v=bww_LNrJYHs

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  200. @Matra

    On Mearsheimer I’m surprised there wasn’t more of an effort to get him ‘cancelled’.

    He’s at least useful for strategic planners in the US.

    • Replies: @Sean
  201. Anglo-Saxon Kings Made Sure to Eat Their Vegetables, Study Shows

    Anglo-Saxon kings have long reigned in the popular imagination as rapacious meat lovers, eagerly feasting on thick slabs of mutton and beef, washed down with copious amounts of mead and ale.

    It appears, however, that their diet leaned more toward vegetables, cereal and bread, according to a study that was published this month in Anglo-Saxon England and could undermine the menu choices at modern-day restaurants that claim to replicate medieval times.

    “There is no sign that elite people were disproportionately eating more meat,” Tom Lambert, a historian at Sidney Sussex College at the University of Cambridge and one of the study’s two authors, said in an interview on Wednesday.

    “When they were not having these big public feasts,” he said, “they were eating a vegetable broth with their bread like everyone else was.”

    Return to tradition! Reject excessive meat-eating (and preferably skip it altogether)!

    • Replies: @songbird
    , @songbird
  202. @utu

    Maybe he’s not saying how it would turn out, but how it should turn out. Not prediction, but advice for the regime change team working on China. Same with Gordon Chang.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  203. songbird says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Is that why they were defeated by the Normans?

    • LOL: German_reader, Wokechoke
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  204. Sean says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    He would have been had anyone listened to him when he predicted (two decades ago) that Ukraine would need a nuclear deterrent to keep Russia at bay. Or four decades ago when he insisted that the Russian army was crap.

    It there was strategic planning in the US then the policy of supporting Chinese growth in order to give Russia something to worry about would not have continued as a way for investors to reap maximum returns. China has economies of scale that will make the West unable to compete commercially, and in a war that productive capacity will be churning out weapons. I would note that China makes the cheaper drones the Ukrainians are using and the drone detection systems the Russians are using to located and liquidate the drone operators.

  205. A123 says: • Website

    As everyone here is too serious, I present the opportunity to:

    😁 Learn From FLORIDA MAN 😂

    https://www.cigarcitybrewing.com/gator-gazette/

    PEACE 😇

     

     

  206. Wokechoke says:

    There’s a Ukrainian battalion/regiment surrounded in the woods in Oskil north of Slovyansk. There will be many more pockets as the spring turns to summer.

  207. Wokechoke says:
    @songbird

    Well, Harold was a Danish Halfling. The Huscarls, his bodyguard were more often that not Danes. A lot of Pork, herring and Salmon. No Potato Pizza yet. Also William the Conqueror was an itinerant child dodging assassins every day of his young life.

    We are talking about the Heptarchy kings rather than the Canute (Dane) Hairfoot (Dane) Edward (Anglo Norman) and Harold (grandson of a Danish King maternal side).

    The Byzantine Emperors ate leafy greens, onions, goat cheese and olives…and often tended to wash the meals and prepare the meals for themselves. Poisoning was a real issue in the Dark Ages. Alfred the Great had several older brothers who dropped dead in weird ways. I can see how they might lay off heavy eating.

    • Replies: @sher singh
    , @songbird
  208. sher singh says:
    @Wokechoke

    Hunters today don’t kill female animals, and this seems to have carried on to dinnerplate mores.
    The slaughter of female animals is generally prohibited, and that of female cows punishable by death.

    This makes sense, the move away from this was primarily judeo-christian who desacralized everything.

    Slaves have no need for intricate rituals, rites or civility of course.

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  209. sher singh says:

    Hindu priests thrashing organizers of anti-Khalistan rally

    [MORE]

    Jai Ma Kali

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  210. AP says:
    @Beckow

    I have been quietly waiting for Alicia Vikander to move next door.

    I estimated that perhaps 5% of Finns were quiet Commie sympathizers. Do you agree or disagree?

    The percentage of people wanting union with Russia in those areas was around 5% to 10%

    Wars change everything

    Did the number change much in Finland after it was invaded?

    • Replies: @Beckow
  211. AP says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Although the vocabulary and grammar are like those of an educated native speaker, it’s a rather strong accent; perhaps your Swedish ears don’t pick up on it? The English part is an eclectic mix of American and English which may mask the Russian accent somewhat.

  212. vb says:

    Scott Ritter seems to be ignoring the entire month of March 2022. The Russian army had just as large of military advantage in March as they do now in April. Yet the Russian army floundered in March. I’d give about even odds that the Russian army will flounder in April/May as well.

    Suggesting the Russian army is going slowly as a strategy is ludicrous. It’s been widely reported that Putin wants some sort of “win” by May 9th (Victory Day). The appearance of going slowly is a sign they are not winning.

    Suggesting the Javelin missile has not been effective is refuted by the many examples of “jack-in-the-box” photos of Russian tanks that have blown their turrets a great distance.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
  213. AP says:
    @Wielgus

    The Russian Civil War and the Soviet-Polish War were both fought by comparatively small forces.

    By 1920 each side had about a million soldiers total. The Battle of Warsaw involved slightly over 100,000 troops for each side.

    In contrast, Tannenberg involved 150,000 German vs. 230,000 Russian troops. So the Soviet-Polish War was on a smaller scale than the World Wars but was not that small.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  214. Putin might have decided Nuclear Orthodoxy is good for archeofuturism in Western Europe.

  215. Beckow says:
    @AP

    My point about Miss Vikander was that quietly waiting means nothing – it is invisible. So if there were 5% quietly waiting in Finland it made no difference.

    Did the number change much in Finland after it was invaded?

    That is a non sequitur because none of the basic parameters are similar enough: there are many more Russians in Ukraine (in that region they are a qualified majority), the war has been going on for 8 years, and the goals are much more ambitious than in 1940 Finland. Then all Russia wanted and asked for was a buffer that would move the Finnish army a few dozen kms from St. Petersburg – Finland said no, lost a war, and Russia took a lot more. There is a lesson there somewhere, this may end the same way.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @AP
  216. Wokechoke says:
    @Beckow

    The Finns in a sense caused themselves much trouble. Goes to show what was really going on in the background. Cutting out Leningrad/St Petersburg was a planned event.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  217. Wokechoke says:
    @AP

    The Russians had to fight around the two shores of a lake. A lesson.

  218. AP says:
    @Beckow

    That is a non sequitur because none of the basic parameters are similar enough: there are many more Russians in Ukraine (in that region they are a qualified majority)

    In Kharkiv oblast the Russian population is 25% – not a majority.

    And of course not many of those want their Ukrainian homeland to be annexed by Russia. Karlin posted poll results awhile ago – depending on oblast, in eastern Ukraine the percentage wishing for annexation varied from 5% to 10%.

    Then all Russia wanted and asked for was a buffer that would move the Finnish army a few dozen kms from St. Petersburg

    “The Soviet delegation demanded that the border between the USSR and Finland on the Karelian Isthmus be moved westward to a point only 30 km (19 mi) east of Viipuri (Russian: Vyborg) and that Finland to destroy all existing fortifications on the Karelian Isthmus. Likewise, the delegation demanded the cession of islands in the Gulf of Finland as well as Rybachy Peninsula (Finnish: Kalastajasaarento). The Finns would also have to lease the Hanko Peninsula for 30 years and to permit the Soviets to establish a military base there. ”

    Soviets formed a puppet government right away when the war started.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  219. @A123

    Breaking news straight from the frontlines – some sneaky Chinese svidomist formations apparently managed to break out from encirclement of Shanghai and did the raid into the capital, capturing some district areas, but the people’s war against them is continuing and they will be crushed there too with all the antisvidomist might of CCP:

    BEIJING/SHANGHAI, April 29 (Reuters) – China’s capital Beijing closed more businesses and residential compounds on Friday, with authorities ramping up contact tracing to contain a COVID-19 outbreak, while resentment at the month-long lockdown in Shanghai grew.

    In Beijing’s Chaoyang district, the first to undergo mass testing this week, started the last of three rounds of screening on Friday among its 3.5 million residents. Most other districts are due for their third round of tests on Saturday.

    More apartment blocks were sealed, preventing residents from leaving, and certain spas, KTV lounges, gyms, cinemas and libraries and at least two shopping malls closed on Friday.

    “The battle against the COVID epidemic is a war, a war of resistance, a people’s war,” said Liang Wannian, head of the National Health Commission’s COVID response panel.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/beijing-closes-more-venues-anger-shanghais-covid-lockdown-grows-2022-04-29/?utm_source=reddit.com

  220. Ron Unz says:
    @Sean

    As Lord Mountbatten said shortly before he was (according to Enoch Powell) assassinated by the CIA

    Interesting. I’d never heard that claim. Do you have a link to the source?

    • Replies: @Sean
  221. Ron Unz says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    founding father of both PRC and ROC-Taiwan

    Exactly. I remember back in the 1980s(?) there was a big story in the NYT about a delegation of ROC officials visiting the PRC for the first time, and being very impressed that their own great founding-hero was also regarding as the great founding-hero of the PRC, with all sorts of monuments and honors.

    It’s a little like two cousins from feuding family branches being surprised to discover that they both honor the same grandfather…

  222. Ron Unz says:
    @Matra

    On Mearsheimer I’m surprised there wasn’t more of an effort to get him ‘cancelled’. When that ‘leading Ukraine down the primrose path’ video got famous there were several days of, what I thought were, organised attacks on him from Anne Applebaum, the former leader of Estonia and others, as well as some petition at his university to have him removed, but it all petered out as quickly as it began.

    Ha, ha, ha. They obviously tried! Here’s a comment I left elsewhere a couple of days ago:

    Well, over the last few weeks I’ve listened to several hours of Mearsheimer’s recent presentations, and he seemed absolutely razor sharp.

    I also can’t remember the last time he seemed so happy and enthusiastic about his topic, which is quite understandable. He was hit very hard after publishing his important Israel Lobby book, and eventually blacklisted from the media. In fact, just a few months ago he was bemoaning to me that no one in the MSM was willing to draw upon his prescient Russia/Ukraine expertise.

    But then his Ukraine video from six years ago went hyper-viral with 24 million(!!!) views, possibly more than any serious academic lecture in the entire history of the Internet, and he became an ultra-hot commodity. The New Yorker did a very long and respectful interview and the Economist solicited a long piece from him. He’s been getting 1,000 emails a day and a constant stream of speaking requests, probably more attention than he even did at the height of his Israel Lobby wave. And whereas the Israel Lobby issue was highly disputed and denounced at the time, everyone with any sense knows perfectly well that Mearsheimer’s public predictions from six years ago have entirely come true.

    Several of Mearsheimer’s other videos add another 10-15 million views, so he may be up around 40 million total, possibly more than any legitimate academic in modern world history. For example, Noam Chomsky and Steven Pinker are very big academic names, but I think they’re each under 10 million views or so. If you’d gone through a dozen years of harsh media blacklisting and then suddenly become the most prominent and visible academic expert in the world, you’d be pretty happy as well.

    And here’s a paragraph from one of my articles a month ago:

    Such massive global attention finally forced our media to take notice, and the New Yorker solicited an interview with Mearsheimer, allowing him to explain to his disbelieving questioner that American actions had clearly provoked the conflict. A couple of years earlier, that same interviewer had ridiculed Prof. Cohen for doubting the reality of Russiagate, but this time he seemed much more respectful, perhaps because the balance of media power was now reversed; his magazine’s 1.2 million subscriber-base was dwarfed by the global audience listening to the views of his subject.

    https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-putin-as-hitler/

  223. songbird says:
    @Wokechoke

    In Chichester, there is a headless skeleton with only half a leg buried in a sarcophagus that some think is Harold’s remains.

    Don’t know if enough DNA can be recovered for cloning purposes, but, if so, then I’m willing to roll the dice, and call him “King Harold.” Especially, if it means that the Windsors can be transitioned to Africa ahead of schedule.

    • Replies: @S
  224. Ron Unz says:
    @Yevardian

    Basically if no one is already familiar with Zeihan…He also takes it as a given that China will implode just as spectacularly as it has risen in the past 40 years, with mass-famines, political balkanisation, the works.

    He sounds like a total lunatic to me. I’ve been closely following China for nearly 45 years and all my longer term predictions have been correct, and it’s even exceeded my most optimistic scenario:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/chinas-rise-americas-fall/

    https://www.unz.com/runz/how-social-darwinism-made-modern-china-248/

    I’ve never heard of him and why should I or anyone else pay any attention to what he says?

  225. songbird says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Though, in all seriousness, I do think that most people would be surprised by how little meat most of their ancestors ate. Typical peasant in 1800s Ireland only ate meat once (on Easter) or twice a year.

    Recently, I was wondering how much butter they ate.

    I find it quite interesting that based on archaeogenetics, polygenic scores predicting coronary artery/heart disease have increased. Makes me think that it wasn’t a lot, but their bodies were getting better at sucking up all the cholesterol, to make the best use of it.

    • Agree: Thulean Friend
  226. Don’t say things that are obviously true, and other conference survival tips

    Pretty good career advice while also being funny at the same time. I would just add, the real purpose of most conferences is social networking and not listening to the presentations for the most part.

  227. Dmitry says:
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    As always you post interesting information, although I’m still not how relevant can be the relation of a founder of Taiwan and an internet bloghost.

    Maybe you wanted to compare Sun Yat-sen to a politician in Russia or USSR? Stalin?

    I guess the relation of nationalities in Russia had been unusual, partly because there is a very multinational country, but with high levels of deracination and destruction of traditional culture. Therefore, what really exists of national difference of some nationalities, is often just peoples’ racial appearance.

    In Ufa, Russians and Bashkirs, are almost culturally the same, but the national difference even in such a multiracial city, is reduced to some different family names and the racial appearances.

    At the same time, there had been a lot of restriction of internal movement in Soviet times, so in many cities there could be very high local racial homogeneity, until the 2000s. Even in 1990s, in school photos, in Russian areas, all people in a school can have slavic appearance, without a single strange or foreign face. So, the older generation of people, from non-multiracial cities, who can remember times before the 2000s, can remember local homogeneity, can have a lot of provincialism in relation to this topic.

    But this emphasis about peoples’ racial appearance in the Russian culture is not like racism, as could be seen in Western colonial societies. It’s rather how people noticed nationalities in those multinational areas and doesn’t imply a sense of colonial power relation (every nationality is equally colonized by the rulers and the majority nationality is not necessarily at the top).

  228. Yevardian says:
    @Ron Unz

    https://www.unz.com/runz/chinas-rise-americas-fall/

    https://www.unz.com/runz/how-social-darwinism-made-modern-china-248/

    I’ve read all your ‘American Pravda’ articles, don’t mistake my post as an endorsement, I’m fully aware the MSM predicts China’s imminent collapse as often as Peter Schiff and PCR predict America’s economic meltdown; you’re not talking to WizardofOz here. Although I do think China has finally run into some very serious problems going ahead from now.

    I was simply curious if this Zeihan’s books were any more substantive than his talks. Besides, reading such stuff can be amusing in small doses, you’ve definitely hosted a fair range of lunatics on your website yourself. That, and I’ve barely read anything that wasn’t extremely hostile to the current American order in probably years. I don’t know if you’re aware, but the MSM in the Antipodes is quite exceptionally bad, one of the most monopolised media landscapes of any western country.

  229. German_reader says:

    From the head of this new anti-disinformation board:

    • LOL: Yevardian
    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
  230. Wielgus says:

    colonelcassad.livejournal.com – Yandex translation with comment

    “Yarosh’s business card”.
    A regular reminder of the Geneva Convention before the expected capture.
    However, the character did not need a reminder, since he did not live to be captured.
    (Photos – Right Sector ID card of platoon commander Dmytro Melikhov. It shows his code name as “Fashyst”)

  231. The apparatchiks of the American regime:

    Btw, some claim she’s partially Jewish. Seems unclear.

    • Replies: @songbird
  232. Ruble now stronger than pre-invasion; external balance sheet looks shockingly good.

    Forget all the hype about punishing Russia. The Kremlin can be in this war for much longer than their opponents can. This explains the fact why Putin’s not in a hurry.

  233. S says:
    @songbird

    In Chichester, there is a headless skeleton with only half a leg buried in a sarcophagus that some think is Harold’s remains….Don’t know if enough DNA can be recovered for cloning purposes,

    A bit remindful of something they ‘dug up’ in 1980 or so. 🙂

    It was the astonishingly well preserved body of Anthony de Lucy, the 3rd Baron Lucy, an Anglo-Norman who died in 1368 and had apparently been killed on crusade at New Kaunas in present day Lithuania, and had been found in St Bees, Cumbria. England.

    This guy’s body upon discovery still had pink skin and liquefied blood. This was someone who had been a teenager at the time of the Black Death.

    It would be almost like digging up ancient Roman ruins, with weather worn statuary, and then finding an almost perfectly preserved Roman body which had been buried at the site.

    Weird in a way, but at the same time linking us directly ‘in the flesh’ so to speak to what in a certain sense was in reality not all that long ago, a blink of an eye…

    The coffin and contents were examined forensically over the following week. The body was reported to exhibit pink skin and visible irises immediately after being exhumed. An autopsy performed on the body shortly after its discovery indicated that the cause of death was most likely a haemothorax caused by a direct blow to the torso.

    Although the body was about 600 years old, his nails, skin and stomach contents were found to be in near-perfect condition. The lead sheet in which the body was wrapped excluded moisture whilst the pine pitch coating of the shroud excluded air.

    • Thanks: songbird
  234. Mr. Hack says:
    @Thulean Friend

    How do you explain this reversal of the rubles predicted value?

  235. Mr. Hack says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Karlin is agreeing with Karlin. Interesting. This is a faux pas that would get your angst going in the past in a big way.

    “Reaching for new heights” or “How low can the high fall”?

    (just a small jab Anatoly, it’s good to see that you’re actually still human, and not part android). 🙂

  236. @Yellowface Anon

    It can’t get any clearer than this:
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=l6wkDJhFSCE

    This kind of naysayers wish to turn China into a large Russia, and they will get it if Xi jumps the gun.

  237. @Ron Unz

    why should I or anyone else pay any attention to what he says?

    I don’t know if this is a good reason, but the reason he gets attention is he is very good at power point (one of the best I have ever seen) and he kills it at the top serious presentations they get at Davos and Bilderberg and Bohemian Grove.

    Has he done Burning Man? I bet he has done Burning Man.

    Being good with power point is roughly as impressive to most people as being good at playing counterstrike. He probably got a varsity letter in curling.

  238. @German_reader

    LOL

    Since they are pivoting the narrative from goal is Ukraine victory to goal is damage Russia is there a damage Russia flag icon? Like a Russia flag with the NO red diagonal circle bar through it?

    • Replies: @songbird
  239. songbird says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Having watched her speak for a few minutes, I think I can perceive a sphingolipid mutation.

    Not only is she a fast talker, but her head is very motile, and her eyes are very blinky. Her brain is evidently more excitatory than the standard, both to her benefit and detriment.

    Not only is she a Russia-gater, but she seems to think the Russkies pulled Brexit off.

  240. songbird says:

    I hope Musk brings Trump back.

    Whatever their shortfalls, I am a fan of both their trollings, and, right now, I think that Musk might be risking some psychotic response by being the popular crux of it all. IMO, he needs Trump to take some of the heat off him, until the other unbannings can have some effect.

  241. Beckow says:
    @AP

    border between be moved westward to a point 19 east of Vyborg and that Finland to destroy all existing fortifications on the Karelian Isthmus.

    That’s what I said: the initial demand was to move the border by 30-40 miles away from St.Petersburg. The Karelian Isthmus is very narrow land between Lake Ladoga and Gulf – it overlooked St. Petrersburg, in a war Finland could lob bombs at will. The few tiny islands are specs of land in the St. Petersburg harbour. You make it sound menacing, but it was relatively reasonable.

    Russia was pushy because everybody knew that a war was coming and that Finland was potentially allied with Germany – as turned out to be true. Finland would be better off if they agreed to the demand. But as today, rationality was thrown out and people died.

    I also think that Germany’s demand in August 1939 for a “corridor” to link East Prussia with Danzig was reasonable. As were previously their demands for protecting German minorities. In hindsight, it is easy to demonize Germans – but at that time those demands should had been taken seriously. It is possible that more reasonable parts of the German elite would act against the Nazis and some of the bloody carnage of WWII would be avoided.

    • Replies: @AP
  242. songbird says:
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    There should be a Metaculus for when the Ukraine flag emojis come down.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @Mikel
  243. Beckow says:
    @Wokechoke

    …Goes to show what was really going on in the background. Cutting out Leningrad/St Petersburg was a planned event.

    That is the only conclusion one can make. Finns will deny it, but what happened speaks for itself: Finland joined Nazis in WWII in their attack on Russia.

    Today the unwillingness to take seriously the potential security threats to Russia on its border also shows the “background” – the unstated goals. It is easy to call Russia paranoid – all security concerns can be called paranoid – but as before WWII the logic of self-protection requires that one can’t trust the enemy. US wouldn’t trust China, Russia or Iran in Quebec, same with UK and Ireland. Why would it be different for Russia?

    • Replies: @Wielgus
  244. @songbird

    You see it won’t come down even if the entire Ukraine is annexed to Russia, because there will be a government-in-exile. But the Belarussian flag emoji is the national one, not the White-Red-White one.

    • Replies: @songbird
  245. @Thulean Friend

    Ruble now stronger than pre-invasion

    Is there any data about international FX rouble trade volume available in comparison before and after Feb 24? IIRC inner market official FX trades were banned for ordinary RF citizens, so volume just disappeared at home, except black markets.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  246. A123 says: • Website
    @Thulean Friend

    Ruble now stronger than pre-invasion; external balance sheet looks shockingly good.

    Forget all the hype about punishing Russia. The Kremlin can be in this war for much longer than their opponents can. This explains the fact why Putin’s not in a hurry.

    Certainly the short-term window is on Putin’s side.

    The failure of JCPOA2 will keep Iran contained as a potential threat to Russian exports. This leaves too many countries needing Russian hydrocarbons. Europe (over EU has objections) has openly declared for Russian gas. Most notably entire countries Hungary, Slovakia, and Greece. However, even in the theoretical sanctions countries, Europe business are undermining the deranged, anti-European EU sanctions plan.
    ___

    However, it is not 100% Putin’s way. The long-term situation is much dicier.

    BalticPipe 1 will complete on time, before winter this year. While smaller than NS2 it will take pressure off Poland. Decisions need to be made on routing for Baltic2, but none of them seem technically complex. Expect a rapid build, ~2-3 years.

    EastMed is proceeding despite Not-The-President Biden’s feeble gibbering against it. This project has a ~5 year time frame.
    ___

    The hard questions to predict are:

    — How long will the fading U.S. regime continue to support Ukraine?
    — And, how long will it take for Ukraine to obtain “Agreement Capable” leadership?

    Right now the Ukie Maximalists have the upper hand in their domestic situation. It will take a stunning defeat, such as a failed offensive trying to retake Mariupol, before options for a negotiated peace reappear.

    PEACE 😇

  247. @German_reader

    The Soviets (and indeed Cold War era US) had leaders that has humanity’s collective future in mind. This was why the Cuban Missile Crisis or the 1983 incident didn’t ended up terminating the Cold War. Not Putin or the main run of Washington DC politico at the moment.

    https://www.princeton.edu/~ota/disk3/1979/7906/7906.PDF

    In Cold War nuclear war scenarios USSR would come out with a lower proportion of demographic loss than the US after a full-scale nuclear exchange. We probably won’t get to see if S is proven right or not.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  248. Beckow says:
    @sudden death

    The volume is down. To crush a currency you need to sell it, but West liquidated rubles in February and now the main exchange activity is buying rubles to pay for the Russian gas, oil, grains. And repatriation by oligarchs forced to sell or lose Western assets.

    The ruble is higher than a year ago and if nothing changes it will continue. If the West blocks Russian exports, inflation will explode more. It is a Mexican standoff.

    China also prevents its citizens from trading yuan for dollars. Many countries do that, it leads to a black market but the volumes are minuscule, it is just noise.

    • Replies: @sudden death
  249. Beckow says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    In a nuclear war the most densely populated and concentrated populations would be most at risk, primarily Europe. The war would reset civilization – Davos people get their wish – and the West has much further to fall. Large parts of the world would be dysfunctional even if they survived.

    It is a very bad scenario. Let’s not forget that the war in Ukraine started in the context of the more dramatic Russian security demands from December. Even if Ukraine is settled, this can go on. We are still at the beginning.

    • Replies: @A123
  250. A123 says: • Website

    I need to create a proper 😁 Humor round up 😂. But many of the Twitter / Ministry of Truth related items are so good, they have to be shared immediately.

    Does anyone think the new Ministry announcement and Musk’s take over of Twitter are unrelated?????

    PEACE 😇

     

  251. A123 says: • Website
    @Beckow

    Large parts of the world would be dysfunctional even if they survived.

    Large parts of America are already dysfunctional.

    In a nuclear war the most densely populated and concentrated populations would be most at risk, …

    Blue Cities !
        Blue States !!
           Blue Cities in Blue States !!!

    Davos people get their wish

    Is it too late for MAGA to start using a Phoenix rather than a Lion?

    PEACE 😇

     

    • Replies: @Beckow
  252. songbird says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    So what are Ukrainian nationalists to do? Abandon their flag because it looks like an equals sign that all the progressives have seized? Or try to ride the signaling wave somehow?
    ________
    Pretty crazy if they embargo oil. Once they do an embargo, IMO, they’ll give Ukraine the greenlight to blow the pipes, so a place like Hungary (landlocked) will be royally screwed. It would be funny if US stopped exports to control domestic prices.

    If they are crazy enough to do an energy embargo, that should raise the nuclear specter significantly.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    , @A123
  253. German_reader says:
    @songbird

    Russia might just cut off deliveries herself because of the weapons shipments. I’d interpret their recent actions against Poland and Bulgaria in that regard as a warning, especially to Germany.
    Anyway, imo this is going to end badly. Putin may well not be quite right in the head anymore (I honestly dread what he’s going to proclaim on 9 May), and the West is also steadily driven towards more escalatory measures, driven along by Russian weakness (plus war crimes) and a hysterically bellicose mob on Twitter and in the media. I think there’s a significant chance the world as we know it is going to end in the next few months, for absolutely idiotic reasons.

  254. @songbird

    My general point is I don’t think Russia has ever been as isolated in its entire history. China is not going to outright offend the EU and was always going abide strict neutrality. With Russian military performing as it is and the Shanghai lockdowns, this has been a humiliating month for CPC.

    The one silver lining for PRC is that it doesn’t have to worry about Russia switching sides to US and Japan. Other than that there’s not much Russia can do for China. If anything at this point Russo-Japanese rapprochement isn’t bad for China.

    Also it might let Olaf go easier on those Waffenlieferungen.

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-and-japan-seek-deeper-ties-during-scholz-visit/a-61608621

    Kurils seem more strategically important to Russia than Japan.

    Why exactly? By the way Japanese-American actor Cary-Hiroyuki Tagawa of Rising Sun, converted to Orthodoxy and became a Russian citizen, he has Russian movie here Confession of A Samurai,

    • Thanks: songbird
    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    , @songbird
  255. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    China is not going to outright offend the EU and was always going abide strict neutrality.

    I personally favour a more balanced EU foreign policy re: China, but I also know that the EU is not a subject in international geopolitics. It is an object – controlled by the US.

    So your wish is essentially impossible given who’s actually in the driver’s seat. The Russians understand this, yet China seemingly belabours under the delusion that this reality can be wished away.

    With Russian military performing as it is and the Shanghai lockdowns, this has been a humiliating month for CPC.

    The “Pepe Escobar worldview” has taken a massive beating.

    The one silver lining for PRC is that it doesn’t have to worry about Russia switching sides to US and Japan. Other than that there’s not much Russia can do for China.

    Other than cheap energy? But yes, you’re right. Even arms shipments are not really relevant anymore as China has caught up in all almost all areas and even surpassed Russia in some (e.g. avionics electronics).

    Beijing clearly doesn’t want Putin’s regime to fall as chaos would be bad for China’s interests but outside of that, why would China stick their neck out? There were always limits to how far China would want to support Russia. This may offend vatniks but it is the simple truth.

  256. songbird says:
    @German_reader

    Not sure with the Russian self-embargo. If output drops too much, it could have a negative impact on production. Previous production peak was during Soviet times, and that became undone when everything started to collapse, and it took years and years, and a lot of investment, before they were able to bring it back up again and match the same output.

    But OTOH, it seems like there has been a lot of provocation against Russia. I mean, when you are providing the support that the US is, that is basically like being at war. And it seems like they haven’t hit back yet. Not that I expect a declaration of war, but a lot of stupid people think that all this signaling is free – that there won’t be negative consequences to it.

    But I don’t think that is how human psychology works. I only wonder about the form it will take. Maybe, they will start sinking those supply ships. Maybe, they’ll start hitting SpaceX and Tesla factories because Starlink has probably been used for attacks in Russia.

    The US has never been more susceptible to outside attacks and destabilization, but the Pinkerians don’t think that way.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  257. German_reader says:
    @songbird

    And it seems like they haven’t hit back yet.

    Well, they’ve already said that they don’t care anymore if their attacks kill Western advisers in Ukraine. And the lack of restraint by Western policy-makers (like the British depute defense minister who said there’s no problem if Ukraine uses Western-supplied weapons for attacks within Russia) will probably also lead to reactions.
    But I agree, it’s bizarre how a lot of virtue-signaling Westerners don’t really seem to get that in Russia’s case this could actually turn into a war where the other side shoots back, unlike the one-sided affairs with Iraq, Serbia etc.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @S
  258. Mikel says:
    @songbird

    There should be a Metaculus for when the Ukraine flag emojis come down.

    Those emojis are here to stay for a long time. What I don’t understand is why it’s taking so long for Che Zelensky T-shirts and posters to become popularized. Every generation needs a pop icon and if murderer Che Guevara filled the slot in the past there’s no reason for WW3-promoter Zelensky not to replace him. There’s a lot of money to be made too.

    • Replies: @songbird
    , @S
  259. AP says:
    @Beckow

    That’s what I said: the initial demand was to move the border by 30-40 miles away from St.Petersburg. The Karelian Isthmus is very narrow land between Lake Ladoga and Gulf – it overlooked St. Petrersburg, in a war Finland could lob bombs at will. The few tiny islands are specs of land in the St. Petersburg harbour. You make it sound menacing, but it was relatively reasonable.

    The Finns would also have to lease the Hanko Peninsula for 30 years and to permit the Soviets to establish a military base there.

    This is only 86 miles from Helsinki. It is west of Helsinki, very far from the Soviet border.

    :::::::::::::::::

    BTW I heard about the Polish tanks and the process of their procurement, at a bar in Poland a couple weeks ago. I didn’t publicly say what was told to me until it became widely known now, nor will I say other things I heard until they become widely known (if they do). But it was nice to get confirmation that it wasn’t all just drunken empty boasting.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    , @LatW
  260. @Beckow

    ….now the main exchange activity is buying rubles to pay for the Russian gas, oil, grains.

    Where from is news about oil&payment scheme changes? As I said earlier, gas payment scheming essentially changed nothing, price in euros remain the same as were prior, gas buyers make payments in euros too, without any prior ruble purchases:

    29.04.2022 official Lavrov:

    В.В.Путин подписал указ, согласно которому с этого момента нужно будет платить не «Газпрому» на его счета в западных банках, а платить «Газпром-банку» по-прежнему в долларах и евро. Ничего не изменится. Та же сумма в иностранной валюте, которая оговорена в контракте. И затем в «Газпром-банке» евро и доллары будут переведены на рублевый счет.

    Vladimir Putin signed a decree according to which, from now on, it will be necessary to pay not to Gazprom to its accounts in Western banks, but to pay Gazprom-Bank, as before, in dollars and euros. Nothing will change. The same amount in foreign currency, which is stipulated in the contract. And then in “Gazprom-bank” euros and dollars will be transferred to the ruble account.

    • Replies: @sudden death
  261. songbird says:
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    It’s about Russia’s Pacific fleet.

    Japan can control the egress of its own navy because it has both a Pacific-facing coast, as well as since it controls a longitudinal chain of islands, in temperate waters that don’t freeze, so it controls all the passage ways.

    In Russia’s case, it’s in more northern latitudes, so ice is a significant problem. Passage between the southern Kurils is ice-free or mostly ice-free. (And they can be defended with anti-ship missiles) Not true of the northern ones. Maybe, they could proceed along the coast of Asia southward, but the US controls all the chokepoints.

    I can’t really think of an alternative, from a military standpoint.

    It’s fun to think about possible deals though. Seems to me that from a Japanese perspective, it is kind of a national touchstone, so that is pretty valuable, and maybe they could turn it to their advantage somehow.

    Like, it is a fantastic scenario, but what if Russia demanded that Japan increase its TFR to replacement. (which would be Japan benefiting, but that could be a way to help organize it as a national goal – they would have to give something valuable back though.)

  262. AP says:
    @German_reader

    As you are aware, all of this is completely Russia’s choice and Russia only needs to return to its own borders for it all to go away. There is nothing “provocative” about giving Ukraine weapons with which Ukraine can defend itself against a country that has violated all norms to invade it.

    I hope all of Russia’s useful idiots here demand strict gun control for themselves and loved ones, in order to avoid the bloodshed that may occur when potential victims are armed.

    • Agree: utu
    • Troll: songbird
    • Replies: @German_reader
    , @songbird
  263. German_reader says:
    @AP

    As you are aware, all of this is completely Russia’s choice and Russia only needs to return to its own borders for it all to go away.

    There’s a difference between giving Ukraine weapons so the entire country isn’t subjugated, and going on a crusade with overthrowing Putin as the end goal and expelling Russia even from Crimea and even the parts of Donbass held before February (areas whose inhabitants you’ve called a liability for Ukraine yourself in the past).
    Also you’re again forgetting one thing: Nobody owes Ukraine anything, no matter how much Ukrainians think they’re entitled to solidarity. This choice is purely for Westerners (preferably those without dual loyalties) to make, and when in doubt our existential interests have to take preference, not those of Ukraine.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Emil Nikola Richard
  264. Mikhail says: • Website

    Biden Cartoon

    • Replies: @A123
  265. AP says:
    @German_reader

    There’s a difference between giving Ukraine weapons so the entire country isn’t subjugated, and going on a crusade with overthrowing Putin as the end goal and expelling Russia even from Crimea and even the parts of Donbass held before February (areas whose inhabitants you’ve called a liability for Ukraine yourself in the past).

    Putin chose to invade Ukraine, the just thing to do is to give Ukraine weapons with which to defend itself. If as a result Ukraine gets armed so well and Russia’s military gets degraded so much that Ukraine makes further gains into its internationally recognized territory (including Crimea and Donbas) – that’s the price of Russia’s aggression. Provided the West stops supporting Ukraine after Russia is cleared from Ukraine’s territory, the West has done nothing wrong and indeed has done the right thing. I do not of course want Ukraine to take into its territory areas with a non-Ukrainian hostile population such as Crimea or urban Donbas, for Ukraine’s sake and not for Russia’s.

    Nobody owes Ukraine anything

    Ukraine helped end the USSR and got rid of its huge nuclear stockpile. It’s now in the frontline of Russian aggression in Europe. Setting that aside, punishing aggression is a good thing whether or not anyone is owed anything. Russia which chose to invade a country and kill its people is “owed” getting its soldiers killed and getting its military and economy degraded. Lavishly providing Ukrainians (who unlike Afghans or Arabs will use the weapons provided them very effectively) with the means to do so is good. May this debacle reduce the chances of future invasions and wars.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  266. songbird says:
    @Mikel

    Che was more marketable because he was seen as off-white.

    • Agree: Mikel
    • LOL: S
    • Replies: @S
  267. S says:
    @German_reader

    ..it’s bizarre how a lot of virtue-signaling Westerners don’t really seem to get that in Russia’s case this could actually turn into a war where the other side shoots back..

    There’s a tremendous amount of hubris in the US at present. You can readily sense it . They are literally and consciously copying the lead up events to WWII in detail, almost cargo cult like, or, paint by numbers, as if that by itself might win a war with Russia. The US and UK are not the same nations they were in 1940, however, and things might not go quite as they’ve originally planned.

    • Replies: @AP
  268. @sudden death

    Source: https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1811531/

    And Gazprom bank was not even sanctioned up to this day IIRC, so the only “breach of contract” may be unilateral changing prior bank account numbers which were written in before?

    • Replies: @Beckow
  269. S says:
    @Mikel

    Considering that Che was a Marxist I always found his commercialization rather ironic.

  270. S says:
    @songbird

    Yes, that’s certainly true. But the really big question for some is if there will be a Zelensky action figure, and will it be out in time for Christmas?

    • Replies: @songbird
  271. German_reader says:
    @AP

    Putin chose to invade Ukraine, the just thing to do is to give Ukraine weapons with which to defend itself.

    Justice is in a factor in international relations now?
    I’d even agree that it isn’t desirable that Russia just gets away with its invasion, after all it was a massive breach of post-1945 norms and one doesn’t want Russia to acquire greater appetite. So yes, giving Ukraine weapons so it can repel further Russian advances and (one hopes) force Russia to the negotiating table probably is sensible and maybe even necessary. What isn’t sensible is going for ever more extreme aims like sending Putin to The Hague, permanently destroying Russia as a geopolitical factor and making any settlement conditional on Ukraine’s pre-2014 territorial integrity. Because the ways this is likely to end are an on-going war proxy war at best, or nuclear catastrophe.

    If as a result Ukraine gets armed so well and Russia’s military gets degraded so much that Ukraine makes further gains into its internationally recognized territory (including Crimea and Donbas)

    Hard no. If Western policy-makers have even an ounce of sense left, they’ll tell Ukraine not to even try anything regarding Crimea and threaten withdrawal of support if Ukraine still does so (but of course they won’t, because they’re hubristic fools).
    Crimea and Donbass aren’t worth the risk of nuclear conflagration.

    Ukraine helped end the USSR and got rid of its huge nuclear stockpile.

    That’s laughable bs, and you know it. The only thing that mattered were Gorbashev’s decisions, and Ukraine couldn’t have used the nukes it had anyway, so giving them up wasn’t a meaningful sacrifice.

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    , @AP
    , @A123
  272. LT voluntarily stopped RF gas imports month ago, annual usage was roughly fluctuating about 2,2 -2,5 billion m3 a year, overall LNG import capacity roughly about 2,8 billion m3, so some amounts will be delivered for Poland too. For comparison – Bulgaria, which has 2,5x more population than LT, used about 2,9 billion m3 of nat gas yearly IIRC:

    2022 04 02 Seeking full energy independence from Russian gas, in response to Russia’s energy blackmail in Europe and the war in Ukraine, Lithuania has completely abandoned Russian gas: Lithuania’s gas transmission system has been operating without Russian gas imports since the beginning of this month.

    This is confirmed by the data of the Lithuanian gas transmission system operator Amber Grid, which shows that on 2 April the import of Russian gas for Lithuania’s needs through the Lithuanian-Belarusian interconnection was equal to 0 MWh.

    All lithuanian gas demand is satisfied through Klaipeda liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal. The official schedules planned by the liquefied natural gas terminal operator Klaipedos Nafta indicate that three large cargoes of liquefied natural gas will reach the terminal each month, which are planned to be enough for all customers. For the next period, customers have placed orders for gas transportation only from the terminal. If necessary, gas can also be delivered to Lithuania via the gas link with Latvia, and from 1 May – through the gas link with Poland.

    Minister of Energy Dainius Kreivys says that this is a turning point in the history of Lithuania’s energy independence: “We are the first EU country among Gazprom’s supply countries to gain independence from Russian gas supplies, and this is the result of a multi-year coherent energy policy and timely infrastructure decisions”.

    In these circumstances, Russia’s demand to pay for gas in rubles is meaningless, as Lithuania no longer orders Russian gas and no longer plans to pay for it. In response, Russian gas supply company Gazprom informed Amber Grid that it no longer wants to import gas from Russia via the Lithuanian-Belarusian link.

    https://enmin.lrv.lt/en/news/lithuania-completely-abandons-russian-gas-imports

    • Replies: @Pixo
  273. Pixo says:
    @Thulean Friend

    There’s no free market in rubles, the rate is whatever the government says.

    Russia’s trade surplus is obviously supportive of the ruble, and it is growing. But that’s just one factor.

    A much bigger one is demand for ruble denominated assets. And that has fallen off a cliff. No rational foreigner would want to invest in Russia given the asset seizures and capital controls. Western companies that were bullish on Russia and invested there all have been badly burned.

    The idea that Russian wealth will be repatriated because of the Western seizures if oligarch wealth is unproved and seems unlikely. The safe place for corrupt Russian money, is no longer London, Sardinia, and Bel Air. There are other spots like the UAE, Switzerland, Israel, Cyprus, and possibly SE Asia and Latin America. Those all seem like better bets that staying rich in Russia and on Putin’s good side, and his successors.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  274. A123 says: • Website
    @songbird

    Pretty crazy if they embargo oil. Once they do an embargo, IMO, they’ll give Ukraine the greenlight to blow the pipes, so a place like Hungary (landlocked) will be royally screwed.

    Hungary will be 100% fine.

    Hungary has agreed with Russia on all the conditions for a new long-term gas supply deal, according to Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto. The agreement is for 15 years and gas flows running to Hungary will bypass Ukraine.

    Hungary’s 1995 supply deal with Russia is set to expire soon thus Budapest decided to extend the agreement. … Hungary will buy 4.5 bcm of gas per year while this amount is set to decrease over the next five years.

    Gazprom would ship 4.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Hungary annually, via two routes: 3.5 billion cubic meters via Serbia (TurkStream) and 1 billion cubic meters via Austria

    The Horgoš, Serbia/Hungary interconnection is fairly new. I was quite surprised at the routing via Turkey when the contract was announced.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://warsawinstitute.org/hungary-russia-agree-new-gas-contract/

    • Replies: @songbird
  275. songbird says:
    @S

    Since “gender neutrality” is such a big thing now, I’d suppose that Trudeau would be the doll of he season. Pull the string and he will say something in a lisp about the “transphobic” truckers.

    • Replies: @S
  276. AP says:
    @S

    The US and UK are not the same nations they were in 1940, however, and things might not go quite as they’ve originally planned.

    Russia is much weaker relative to the USSR of 1939 than the USA is it to the USA of 1939. Setting aside the late and post Soviet era decay, Russia is only about half of the USSR.

    • Disagree: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    , @S
  277. songbird says:
    @A123

    Thanks, I didn’t realize about that pathway.

    But I wonder if they would still blow it with submersible drones, though, I suppose that would probably make the Turks angry, so they may not risk it.

  278. Pixo says:
    @sudden death

    NatGas policy since the invasion is stupid on both sides.

    Expensively rerouting gas is negative sum and should stop.

    If the West wants to reduce Russia’s power from gas exports, it has to reduce domestic consumption or increase production.

    Similarly “you must pay in rubles” is dumb symbolism.

    Russia’s poor war performance may be linked to its resource curse: domestic wages are so high from resource exports they cannot compete in other industries, letting their defense sector that used to supply half the world stagnate then decline.

    • Disagree: Mikhail
  279. Mikhail says: • Website
    @AP

    Russia is much weaker relative to the USSR of 1939 than the USA is it to the USA of 1939. Setting aside the late and post Soviet era decay, Russia is only about half of the USSR.

    USSR was unsustainable and to the detriment of Russia and others. Russia and the other former Soviet republics would’ve benefited from a non-Communist alternative. Regardless, the degree of freedom and government concern for overall living conditions has improved in post-Soviet Russia.

    The USA isn’t as geopolitically significant as it once was, while still being a major power – one with limits which Obama noted in his interview with Jeffrey Goldberg regarding Ukraine.

    • Disagree: Yevardian
  280. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Pixo

    A more nuance situation from what you say. You might find this of interest:

    https://scotthorton.org/interviews/4-22-22-william-arkin-on-russias-failures-in-ukraine/

    Have yet to view, with the header suggesting agreement with your take.

  281. Mikhail says: • Website
    @German_reader

    I’d even agree that it isn’t desirable that Russia just gets away with its invasion, after all it was a massive breach of post-1945 norms and one doesn’t want Russia to acquire greater appetite. So yes, giving Ukraine weapons so it can repel further Russian advances and (one hopes) force Russia to the negotiating table probably is sensible and maybe even necessary.

    Not too distant US action suggests differently. As for Ukraine, it has been the geopolitically greedy neolib/neocon, anti-Russian leaning influenced Western establishment which has played the zero sum game much unlike Russia.

    The longer the war, the less beneficial for Ukraine.

  282. @Pixo

    Specifically for Poland and Baltic states it makes zero sense to purchase RF natgas&oil if there’s enough import capacity to buy from other sources, cause RF will use the money to make propaganda, weapons and equipment for troops who will be positioned against them near their own border.

    Poland and Lithuania, being NATO members are way more rationally using money by buying US LNG and somewhat reducing US current account deficit, but getting US troops and commitments in exchange. Subsequently this becomes and some straight material mercantilistic interest for USA, not just some abstract geopolitical transantlantism, which is so disliked by US isolationist wing.

  283. AP says:
    @German_reader

    Justice is in a factor in international relations now?

    It should be, and arming Ukraine in order to punish a bloody invasion is just. It also happens to be convenient for the West. A cheap javelin or stinger taking out an expensive Russian helicopter or tank is a good return on investment. It’s a very rare opportunity, perhaps once in a generation, to cheaply degrade the military of a major rival. So it’s a rare case when justice and American interests coincide (World War II was another case; most other wars such as World War I were not).

    What isn’t sensible is going for ever more extreme aims like sending Putin to The Hague, permanently destroying Russia as a geopolitical factor and making any settlement conditional on Ukraine’s pre-2014 territorial integrity.

    I don’t disagree. But who knows what the consequences of Russia’s crime will be. If Russia stumbles so hard that Ukraine is able to take more than it had in February, such is the price of invasion.*

    If as a result Ukraine gets armed so well and Russia’s military gets degraded so much that Ukraine makes further gains into its internationally recognized territory (including Crimea and Donbas)

    Hard no. If Western policy-makers have even an ounce of sense left, they’ll tell Ukraine not to even try anything regarding Crimea and threaten withdrawal of support if Ukraine still does so

    Again, I don’t disagree. Ukraine should be maximally supported as long as Russia is in its territory and until it is able to throw the Russians out of the February borders, for its own sake as well as for the sake of peace. But if Russia somehow destroys its military so much that it can’t stop Ukraine from moving further, even without future Western support, well it’s an unintended consequence of its own choice to invade. *

    Ukraine helped end the USSR and got rid of its huge nuclear stockpile.

    That’s laughable bs, and you know it. The only thing that mattered were Gorbashev’s decisions, and

    Ukraine’s decision to go independent sealed the doom of the USSR (just as Polish stubbornness helped end the Warsaw Pact).

    Ukraine couldn’t have used the nukes it had anyway, so giving them up wasn’t a meaningful sacrifice.

    You really think Ukraine’s engineers and scientists would never have been able to make those nukes usable for Ukraine? Or to make their own nukes after not having signed a nonproliferation agreement?

    *Just to be clear, I think the possibility of this happening is very unlikely, though not completely impossible

    • Agree: Mr. Hack, Pixo
    • Replies: @German_reader
    , @utu
    , @Mr. Hack
  284. A123 says: • Website
    @German_reader

    giving Ukraine weapons so it can repel further Russian advances and (one hopes) force Russia to the negotiating table probably is sensible and maybe even necessary. What isn’t sensible is going for ever more extreme aims like sending Putin to The Hague, permanently destroying Russia as a geopolitical factor and making any settlement conditional on Ukraine’s pre-2014 territorial integrity. Because the ways this is likely to end are an on-going war proxy war at best, or nuclear catastrophe.

    The Ukrainian War Criminals have to bear a sanction for their part in starting this war. I have discussed their malicious targeting of civilians in Crimea several times. Sending them to the Hague is as implausible as sending Putin. However, on the ground any deal will have to keep criminal aggressor Ukraine away from water supplies and other levers that could be used for future, illegal, collective punishment targeting Russian and Donbas civilians.

    Getting Russia to the negotiating table is straightforward. Obtaining “Agreement Capable” representation from Ukraine is much harder. Feeding in resupply at a rate that gives the Maximalist Ukies false hope of impossible gains makes things worse.
    ____

    The talk about nuclear weapons is likely coded messaging to Poland’s leaders.

    Serving as an equipment & intelligence conduit is grey area, but probably does not void NATO guarantees. Sending actual Polish combat units into Ukraine will void Poland’s NATO protection, thus opening the door to Russian use of nuclear weapons.

    PEACE 😇

  285. @German_reader

    There’s a difference between giving Ukraine weapons so the entire country isn’t subjugated, and going on a crusade with overthrowing Putin as the end goal and expelling Russia even from Crimea and even the parts of Donbass held before February (areas whose inhabitants you’ve called a liability for Ukraine yourself in the past).

    You aren’t using your imagination. These bastards are such sick bastards they are giving Ukraine weapons to increase the max carnage. Nobody in power gives one bloody booger if all of Ukraine, Kiev, Lvov is obliterated.

    • Agree: songbird, S
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @A123
  286. @Pixo

    Hasn’t Cyprus (EU member) and Switzerland followed EU sanctions and proceeded to seized all the wealth on their soil? Singapore too in SE Asia.

    • Replies: @Pixo
  287. A123 says: • Website
    @Pixo

    Similarly “you must pay in rubles” is dumb symbolism.

    It should be, but it is not.

    The anti-European EU is both degenerate and delusional. This is what they are trying to push: (1)

    Europe has formally demanded to pay for Russian imports with Schrödinger Euros

    European Central Bank would now “print” euros with a keyboard 100% for free and then transfer such euros over to the Russian exporters bank accounts in the EU albeit now under “frozen” status. So Russia never gets to use such euros – which actually never see the light of day

    It´d be a “print & deposit + freeze & hide” seizure and expect-the-Russians-to-fall-for-it trick…as if they were K6 kids.

    Now of course I can hear the maniacs in charge arguing that this would only be “temporary” – of course — and that as soon as Russia gets out of Ukraine under “acceptable” terms – of course, yet again — everything will get back to yankee doodle normal.

    Never underestimate how much EU Elites, and their EU Bankers, hate the fact that European nations are sovereign. EU policy exists to damage Europe, European nations, and European citizens.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/schrodinger-euros

    • Agree: songbird
  288. @Emil Nikola Richard

    Nor Berlin, Paris, London, NYC, Tokyo, or Moscow, Beijing, Delhi, for the matter. They’re moving to virtual networks that have secluded servers in blast-proof shelters far from populated places (I believe), so that their systems of command will remain intact.

    I look at the Schwab-Putin photos everyday and despair.

  289. S says:
    @songbird

    Since “gender neutrality” is such a big thing now, I’d suppose that Trudeau would be the doll of he season…

    Hehe! That was brutal Songbird.

    • Replies: @songbird
  290. songbird says:

    One thing Russia could potentially do is attack SpaceX’s drone barge.

    IMO, it would be a dumb thing to do, as they have a lot of boosters, and can land at base, so it probably wouldn’t even affect their launch cadence, and next time they’d go out with the navy. A lot of room for escalation, without much payoff, but OTOH, it might seem attractive because it wouldn’t be quite the same as US soil, and it is an unmanned target, so probably no casualties.

    But definitely more sensible than spending a missile on a single small mass-produced satellite, that can launched 60 at a time.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  291. @songbird

    US would still intervene on the pretext of “attacking its own businesses and critical infrastructure”, tho not as much as actually striking the US.

  292. German_reader says:
    @AP

    It’s a very rare opportunity, perhaps once in a generation, to cheaply degrade the military of a major rival.

    I admit there’s a certain logic to that and I won’t pretend to be sad that so many Russians have been killed in Ukraine. However, I disagree with the idea of keeping the war going just to weaken Russia. If (and of course that’s a big if, who knows what’s going on in Putin’s head by now) there’s a chance to reach a negotiated settlement which leaves Ukraine in full sovereignty over the territory it held before February, one should pursue it.
    I also don’t think that Russia has been purely hostile towards the West over the last 20 years, on some issues like Afghanistan/Islamists in Central Asia or the nuclear issue with Iran there was at least some constructive cooperation. Of course the chance for such cooperation may be irreversibly gone now, but from my pov that isn’t a positive development.

    If Russia stumbles so hard that Ukraine is able to take more than it had in February, such is the price of invasion.

    If we lived in a world without nuclear weapons, one could view it like that with equanimity, but I’m unwilling to dismiss the risk of a defeated Putin retaliating with nuclear weapons and taking much of the West down with him.

    But if Russia somehow destroys its military so much that it can’t stop Ukraine from moving further, even without future Western support, well it’s an unintended consequence of its own choice to invade.

    Ok, if you phrase it like that… But all that is hypothetical for now anyway.

    Ukraine’s decision to go independent sealed the doom of the USSR

    tbh I don’t see why that should matter much to most Europeans or Americans, by then Germany had been re-unified and the Soviets had already allowed Poles, Czechs and other Warsaw Pact members to go their own way.

    You really think Ukraine’s engineers and scientists would never have been able to make those nukes usable for Ukraine? Or to make their own nukes after not having signed a nonproliferation agreement?

    Given Ukraine’s economic and other internal problems this doesn’t strike me as a realistic possibility.
    See here:
    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0043820016673777

    [MORE]

    Moreover, establishing operational control over the existing missiles on Ukraine’s territory still would have left Ukraine with a problem of how to replace them once their service life expired, as Ukraine lacked some of the key elements of a nuclear weapons program. These elements included uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing facilities to fabricate nuclear fuel, as well as nuclear warhead production and nuclear—and missile—testing ranges. This is not even to mention the more sophisticated elements essential for making Ukraine’s deterrent against Russia’s giant nuclear forces survivable and credible, such as the early warning system, the geodetic data from satellites necessary for accurate targeting, as well as extensive research, production, and maintenance facilities necessary for ongoing nuclear force modernization (for a more detailed discussion see Kincade 1993).

    Thus, after bringing upon itself the wrath of the civilized world, and possibly a retaliatory action from Russia, Ukraine would still need to invest heavily in a nuclear weapons program, the cost of which the Ukrainian government estimated at a minimum of \$2 billion. Those who remember the early 1990s in Ukraine will agree that, for a country ravaged by hyperinflation and the severe economic crisis of a post-Soviet transition, such an investment would have been prohibitive. Indeed, some in Russia thought that American insistence on Ukraine’s quick denuclearization was misguided. For instance, Vitaliy Kataev, a senior representative of the Soviet, then Russian, military industrial complex, argued that Ukraine should be left alone with its ICBMs and made to carry the cost of maintaining and eventually disposing of them as their service life expired toward the end of the 1990s (Kataev 1994, 3). By that time, he maintained, Ukrainians would come begging that Russia and the West take these missiles off their hands.

    Also here:
    https://nucleardiner.wordpress.com/2022/02/06/could-ukraine-have-retained-soviet-nuclear-weapons/

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  293. Sean says:
    @Ron Unz

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29114378

    Powell also developed something of an obsession with what he believed was American influence over British policy towards Northern Ireland:

    “This obsession was partly caused by his possession of a State Department policy statement (from August 1950) that argued ‘it is desirable that Ireland should be integrated into the defence planning of the North Atlantic area, for its strategic position and present lack of defensive capacity are matters of significance’. Powell went as far as claiming that the CIA was responsible for the deaths of Lord Mountbatten, Airey Neave and Robert Bradford,”

    Neave was the eminence griseistrimental in the rise of Margaret Thatcher

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  294. Beckow says:
    @sudden death

    Contracts during a war are for birds, none of it can be enforced.

    The trade between EU and Russia is now very simple: Russia delivers gas, EU pays the invoice, money ends up in Russia as rubles. What happens in the middle is only process. What matters is what is given and what is received: gas to EU and rubles to Russia.

    This is new. Until this month the payments stayed in Euros-\$s in the Gazprom Western accounts – in effect EU didn’t really pay. If I sell you a sandwich and you “pay” in your house money and I am stupid enough to keep that payment in a bank you control in that money, you effectively don’t pay for the sandwich until I withdraw that money and buy something with it. This is exactly the petro-dollar scheme that US came up with after dropping the gold standard. That is what keeps \$ and Euro valuable.

    Russia is breaking the long-term scheme that is propping up the Western living standards. That’s why the West can’t give in: they either win the war, or at least they must be seen as not losing to Russia. It makes the situation very dangerous. This will get much worse before it is over.

  295. utu says:
    @AP

    What is the message Germany is broadcasting since before the war? First it was do not supply Ukraine with weapons because Russia will win and now it is do not supply Ukraine with weapons because Ukraine may win. This is still the same message. They haven’t learned anything.

    German_twat is on the level of those ‘German intellectuals’ like Alice Schwarzer and Alexander Kluge, Martin Walser, Reinhard Merkel, Reinhard Mey, Dieter Nuhr, Gerhard Polt, Edgar Selge, Antje Vollmer, Peter Weibel, Ranga Yogeshwar, Juli Zeh, Richard Precht who recently were recruited (possibly by circles around Scholz and/or Russian embassy) to write open letter to Scholz warning against provoking Putin in the slightest way and so on:

    “We therefore hope that you [Scholz] will remember your original position and that you will not, directly or indirectly, supply more heavy weapons to Ukraine. On the contrary, we urge you to do everything you can to ensure that a ceasefire is reached as soon as possible to a compromise that both sides can accept,”

    The signatories emphasize that Putin broke international law by attacking Ukraine. But that doesn’t justify accepting the “risk of this war escalating into a nuclear conflict.” The delivery of large quantities of heavy weapons could make Germany itself a party to the war. “A Russian counter-attack could then trigger the case for assistance under the NATO treaty and thus the immediate danger of a world war.”

    We warn against a two-fold error: Firstly, that the responsibility for the danger of an escalation to a nuclear conflict lies solely with the original aggressor and not also with those who see him with his eyes provide a motive for possibly criminal action. And on the other hand, that the decision on the moral responsibility of the further “costs” in human lives among the Ukrainian civilian population falls exclusively within the competence of their government. Morally binding norms are of a universal nature.”

    If they were not a part of Putin dupes and Putin agentur in Germany they could be well standing members in the new neo-pagan anti-Western cult that apparently took hold in Germany that ‘nobody owes anybody anything’ and that ‘nobody owes Ukraine anything’ in particular.

  296. German_reader says:
    @utu

    You’ve advocated for a No-fly-zone, that is not just for a proxy war, but literally for a direct US-Russia war. And you didn’t even understand what you were calling for.
    Your opinion is totally worthless and you should be locked away in a mental asylum.

  297. Beckow says:
    @AP

    …The Finns would also have to lease the Hanko Peninsula!!!

    Tragic, how could they agree to it? And a 30-year lease, no less. Now you convinced me, it was worth for Finland to lose 100k soldiers and Vyborg. The Hanko peninsula was preserved.

    Tell us more what the drunk Poles are saying in bars. When are they finally marching on Moscow? Or at least Minsk or Kaliningrad? Tell them not to forget the horses.

    • Replies: @AP
  298. A123 says: • Website
    @Mikhail

    The scary part is that the footage of Not-The-President Biden is effectively unedited. Only the background has been swapped: (1)

    It is getting worse…. This is not okay. Nothing about this is okay.

    Not-The-VP Harris presents the coup puppeteers with a massive dilemma. The current dribbler is a disaster, but at least it can be denied medication & locked in the occupied White House basement. What would happen if the replacement tried to make policy by herself? That is a risk they cannot take.

    The writers that produced Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister need to tackle this illegitimate White House.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/04/28/biden-malfunctions/

    • Replies: @keypusher
    , @Mikhail
  299. songbird says:
    @S

    Trudeau is genuinely creepy, IMO. Canada would be better off, if they forced everyone like Trudeau to get a haircut.

  300. songbird says:
    @utu

    German_twat

    Repeatedly using vulgarisms against someone here just makes you seem like a perverted psychopath. It is not the own you think it is.

  301. LatW says:
    @AP

    in Poland a couple weeks ago

    That photo you posted of the Patriot missiles there was really cool. Thanks for posting that.

    • Thanks: AP
  302. AP says:
    @Beckow

    …The Finns would also have to lease the Hanko Peninsula!!!

    Tragic, how could they agree to it? And a 30-year lease, no less. Now you convinced me, it was worth for Finland to lose 100k soldiers and Vyborg

    1. It proves that you lied as usual when you claimed that Soviet demands were limited to some territory near Leningrad.

    2. Between a large Soviet base only 86 miles west of Helsinki and a Soviet border shifted more from the eastern side Finland would have been much more vulnerable.

    Tell us more what the drunk Poles are saying in bars.

    Those arms dealers weren’t Poles…what they said about the tanks has been confirmed though.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  303. S says:
    @AP

    The US and UK are not the same nations they were in 1940, however, and things might not go quite as they’ve originally planned.

    Russia is much weaker relative to the USSR of 1939 than the USA is it to the USA of 1939. Setting aside the late and post Soviet era decay, Russia is only about half of the USSR.

    Thanks, AP. I should clarify, however, what I meant about the US and the UK not being the same as in 1940.

    The demographics for the US are of course quite different now. I think for the worse. The UK, particularly England, seems to be deliberately destroying it’s own Anglo-Saxon power base. So the US and UK are weaker in that sense than they were imo.

    In their blinding hubris, some large segments of the US and UK elites and their hangers on may think, even so, that a WWIII with Russia will be a repeat of WWII with Germany, where relatively speaking, the US and UK (though particularly the US) got off a lot lighter than many other countries in regards to damage sustained and casualties incurred.

    That might well change quite a bit this go around. That is what I was getting at. No doubt the elites who thought it would all be ‘a cakewalk’ with Russia would be shocked.

    Some of the upper tier of the US and UK elites seem to know better and are planning accordingly. I think the stories of the extensive blast and radiation proof underground shelters, the kind with a ten year supply of food, water, oxygen, entertainment facilities, etc, built in Southern portions of the globe for the ultra wealthy and powerful, are probably true.

    Anyhow, the US in the last years of the Trump administration increased US internal steel production capabilities and with fracking, has made the US entirely capable of being wholly oil independent from the Mideast and elsewhere. I think this was in preparation for WWIII.

    I think after a relatively short conventional war with Russia (and China, Iran, N Korea, etc,) this war would go nuclear, as long planned.

    What to do?

    First and foremost, people in the US and UK, ie the Anglosphere, where much of this is emanating from, should refuse and stand down in regards to any support for this war.

    Though certainly more difficult for people in Ukraine and Russia at present, where things are quite a bit ‘hotter’, and seemingly counter-intuitive, I would suggest the same. I would perhaps say different if I thought any of the parties involved were fighting ‘on their terms’, but I don’t see it. I instead see various peoples being manipulated into this war against their own interest, with the objective being ultimately that they be destroyed.

    And pray. And not necessarily in that order.

    • Replies: @AP
  304. AP says:
    @utu

    You are absolutely correct about the German intellectuals and the German state but our German Reader is better than them, he at least supports arming Ukraine.

    • Disagree: utu
    • Replies: @German_reader
  305. Beckow says:
    @AP

    Are you going psychotic again? Let it go, I was joking about the hot-oven dwellers of Finland.

    By the way, how do you know how “large” the “leased” Soviet base would be? Wouldn’t it be extremely vulnerable? More of a target than a threat? Kind of like a Nato base on the Azov See? Those who don’t learn from history will repeat it…

  306. A123 says: • Website
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    You aren’t using your imagination. These bastards are such sick bastards they are giving Ukraine weapons to increase the max carnage. Nobody in power gives one bloody booger if all of Ukraine, Kiev, Lvov is obliterated.

    Again, the purpose of the WEF Elites is the maximization is MENA refugees flows. Infidel Ukrainians & Russians are 100% expendable. Kiev, Sebastopol, Lviv, Sochi… if they fall to carnage that is an acceptable price for making the EU less European.

    I know that neither side’s partisans want to hear it, but the TRUTH is the TRUTH. The fighting between Ukraine & Russia was deliberately engineered from the outside. It is a relatively tiny piece of a much larger struggle.

    PEACE 😇

  307. Beckow says:
    @A123

    There are levels of dysfunction. You are right, since the ruling liberalism is concentrated everywhere in the biggest cities, a nuclear war would – among other things – move the political spectrum dramatically to the conservative side. Now, there is a thought…

    • LOL: A123
  308. German_reader says:
    @AP

    and the German state

    Germany sent Stinger missiles and anti-tank weapons almost immediately after the invasion.
    Apparently things like this as well:


    They’ve also sent Patriot batteries to Slovakia, so Slovakia will send its S-300 system to Ukraine, and similar arrangements are planned with Slovenia and T-72-like tanks. And now they’re even intending to send German Gepard anti-air tanks to Ukraine.
    imo this entire “Germany isn’t supporting Ukraine at all, yet financing Russia’s war” narrative is nothing more than a fairly cynical media campaign.

    • Replies: @AP
  309. AP says:
    @S

    Thanks, AP. I should clarify, however, what I meant about the US and the UK not being the same as in 1940.

    The demographics for the US are of course quite different now. I think for the worse.

    There are currently 204 million white Americans, out of a total US population of 330 million (not that non-whites are of zero military value).

    In 1939 the total population of the USA was 131 million. And America’s military built up quite a lot compared to 1939. In 1939 the US army had 174,000 soldiers. Today it has 485,00 soldiers. This does not count reserves or national guard.

    UK has 67 million people compared to 46 million in 1939. It’s military is probably worse now, though it does have its own nukes.

    USSR had 168 million people in 1939. Russian federation has only 145 million. It is now at war with what had been the second most populous part of the USSR. Its military, though better than it had bee in the 90s, is worse than it had been in 1939. In 1939 the Red Army numbered 1.8 million soldiers. Today’s Russia’s ground forces numbered 285,000 troops (this does not include national guard or reserves).

    So compared to 1939, Russia is in a much worse position vis a vis the Anglo world in terms of both populations and military might. Not even close.

    First and foremost, people in the US and UK, ie the Anglosphere, where much of this is emanating from, should refuse and stand down in regards to any support for this war.

    US and UK should not be directly or openly involved but they should provide maximum assistance to Ukraine as long as Russian troops are on Ukrainian soil (and make clear that once Russia is chased away from Ukraine support will no longer be necessary as the task will have been achieved). Provide what Soviets provided for Vietnam (they gave Vietnam around 400 Migs). Turn Ukraine into a woodchipper for Russian soldiers where Russia will get bloodied for going where it does not belong, until Russia chooses to pull its hand out of the machine. It will thus be completely Russia’s choice, how much of its soldiers and expensive equipment it wants to waste. Ukraine and its western-supplied arms aren’t going into Russia (except in rare cases on the border, linked to the invasion of Ukraine), Russia is getting its people and equipment wasted in Ukraine in a way that is totally of Russia’s choosing.

    • Disagree: S
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @S
  310. Daniel H says:
    @Pixo

    Similarly “you must pay in rubles” is dumb symbolism.

    How is it dumb? And the strategy seems to be more than symbolic. By forcing gas/oil importers to pay for Russian gas/oil in Rubles Russia is compelling the west to sell products to Russia, products (advanced technology) that the west at this moment would rather not sell to Russia. “You want Rubles? We will give you Rubles, but sell us those advanced industrial controllers, chip manufacturing infrastructure, etc that we will pay for with Rubles…” Seems like a smart move by Russia. Why accept payment in US dollars when the US state will end up stealing it anyway? What do I know about economics, though.

  311. Pixo says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    I believe the official EU actions against Russia are minimal and it is the national-level sanctions that go much further.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Yellowface Anon
  312. A123 says: • Website
    @Pixo

    I believe the official EU actions against Russia are minimal and it is the national-level sanctions that go much further.

    As a general rule, it is the reverse. The EU ‘sanctions’ are extreme but unenforceable. The bulk of Europe is quietly ignoring or openly repudiating EU overreach.

    There are individual nations (e.g. Germany, Poland) working against European norms. They have more extreme policy than even the anti-European EU. However, it is focused on quashing internal actors.

    PEACE 😇

  313. Mr. Hack says:
    @AP

    Great reply! For a moment, I thought that I was reading a reply that I had wrote. 🙂 You really took off the gloves for this reply, and of all people it had to be German_ Reader (a commenter that we both respect here) that was on the opposing end. The exploits of the Ukrainian military must be inspiring you.

    • Thanks: AP
    • LOL: Mikhail
  314. AP says:
    @German_reader

    Germany has been very slow and helpful mostly under extreme pressure. Not 100% useless but barely and grudgingly helpful, compared to the Eastern Europeans, Anglos, Scandinavians, etc. I remember how at the beginning the arms shipments to Ukraine all had to avoid German airspace, and how Germany was blocking other countries from sending German-made equipment to Ukraine. The German state was probably hoping Ukraine would have been finished off quickly so business as usual could be resumed.

    But Germany is better now. Though even those Gepards aren’t scheduled to be sent for a couple more months IIRC.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  315. Mr. Hack says:
    @German_reader

    If we lived in a world without nuclear weapons, one could view it like that with equanimity, but I’m unwilling to dismiss the risk of a defeated Putin retaliating with nuclear weapons and taking much of the West down with him.

    It’s a long ways to go to get to this point, and if the Ukrainian military were really to push the Russians this far back, I think somebody else in Russia would need to start looking at eliminating Putin. Things would go much more smoothly on Russia at any negotiating table without Putin around. If the war goes another 4-6 months, Russia’s economy will really start to feel all of the negative effects of the economic sanctions, it will become really messed up.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  316. German_reader says:

    Interesting thread, especially about the economic effects of the Black sea blockade:

  317. German_reader says:
    @AP

    I remember how at the beginning the arms shipments to Ukraine all had to avoid German airspace, and how Germany was blocking other countries from sending German-made equipment to Ukraine. The German state was probably hoping Ukraine would have been finished off quickly so business as usual could be resumed.

    That was before the invasion, and the latter part is just speculation. My impression is there was a general expectation Ukraine would fold quickly. US evacuated its diplomats, and all the talk was about supporting a guerrilla movement after a Russian invasion and occupation, not a regular war effort like now.

    Though even those Gepards aren’t scheduled to be sent for a couple more months IIRC.

    That’s true, but apart from political considerations there’s also the simple fact that Germany’s military is in a run-down state, e.g. they’ve got only about 100 of those armoured howitzers 2000. I suppose Germany could spare some, but this will also reduce Germany’s ability even more to react to any contingency.

  318. German_reader says:
    @Mr. Hack

    Things would go much more smoothly on Russia at any negotiating table without Putin around.

    Problem is that Putin seems to be a true autocrat, much more powerful (at least domestically) than the rulers of the Soviet Union after Stalin. There doesn’t seem to be any institution capable of sending him off to retirement like happened with Khrushchev. Which is of course pretty scary, because he might be genuinely unhinged by now if he really believes what he’s saying.

    • Replies: @A123
  319. A123 says: • Website
    @German_reader

    Let me Fix That For You;

    Problem is that *Zelensky* seems to be a true autocrat. There doesn’t seem to be any institution capable of sending him off to retirement. Which is of course pretty scary, because he might be genuinely unhinged by now if he really believes what he’s saying.

    What concessions will Ukraine offer to make up for their War Crimes targeting Crimean civilians?

    If the Ukie side demands territory that allows them to repeat their War Crimes… That will simply lead to the next war. The Ukrainian side can refuse sincere contrition. However, as a purely practical matter, they will not be allowed to hold an offensive strong point.

    The middle east provides an exact parallel. Violent Islam misused the Golan to commit War Crimes against indigenous Palestinian Jews. To defend the Jewish population, Judaism refused to allow kill frenzy Jihadists to hold the Golan. Russia finds itself in a similar position after being unfairly molested by its extremely violent Ukrainian neighbor.

    PEACE 😇

    • Disagree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @songbird
    , @Matra
    , @Mr. Hack
  320. songbird says:
    @A123

    BTW, I did read Enemy Mine. It was better than I thought it would be, though still pozzed in two places:

    [MORE]

    One was a sentence that was part of a stream of consciousness that could have as easily been cut, without the reader noticing:
    “Dragger suck.” As an invective the term had all of the impact of several historical terms-Quisling, heretic, fag, nigger-lover, all rolled into one.

    The other was that, at the end of the story, the main character gets super-cucked by returning to the planet he had been stranded on, getting super old (or so I interpreted, from the reference “withered knees”), raising a line of aliens that he had first met in battle.

    If I had to criticize the work, I would say that the lessons of the Drac about the importance of lineage didn’t seem to carry over to the main character. But, I don’t know, maybe, the author intended that as a negative commentary on his character’s rootless upbringing.

    Quick read.

    • Replies: @A123
  321. @AP

    until Russia chooses to pull its hand out of the machine.

    Putin will grab the cheget with the other hand and aim it at the one setting up the woodchipper. Same with any attempt on his monopoly on power. Shoigu is now too meek to stop the orders, and the post can be replaced until Putin finds a yesman.

    Brandon will do whatever he’s told, but Blinken and every neocon in the Pentagon still have a sense of self-preservation.

  322. @Pixo

    Doesn’t EU coordinate the sanctions?

  323. S says:
    @AP

    In general I find your posts quite intelligent and insightful. I’m sympathetic to both your Ukrainian people, and their aspirations, and the Russian people, in this almost impossible situation.

    It’s the context of the entire thing.

    How can the US/UK as nations possibly care about the Ukrainian people if they don’t even care about their own Anglo-Saxons?

    I don’t think they can.

    The US/UK ‘cares’ about the Ukrainians in the same way a thief ‘cares’ about his mark, a fox cares about his hen, or, a master, his slave. In other words not at all in any positive or good sense.

    I wish it were not so and it pains me to say these things.

    Chattel slavery and its trade historically corrupted large and powerful segments of the Anglo-Saxon elites of the United States and United Kingdom. It still does via it’s monetization, wage slavery, ie the so called cheap labor/mass immigration system, the economic and political basis of the modern progressive multicultural state, a state which with its wage slave (ie ‘cheap labor’) ‘immigrant’ as it’s centerpiece closely parallels the chattel slave holding society it evolved from in many ways.

    These corrupted Anglo-Saxon elites and their hangers on ‘cared’ more about their slaves, chattel or wage, skilled and unskilled, than their own people. Specifically, they cared about the financial value of the labor they were systematically stealing from their wage slaves by grossly under paying them for it.

    This is the economic/political system your Ukrainian government is plugging into.

    Lastly, not to compare specifics but rather the concept, there was a 1971 movie called Murphy’s War starring Peter O’toole as ‘Murphy’, a man employed on an isolated Carribean island in 1945.

    Murphy, with some cause, has a hatred of Germans. Though the war has just ended, he, even so, continues to hunt a German sub which has been lurking in the island’s immediate vicinity with a float plane, a floating crane, and a live torpedo he has scrounged.

    Ultimately, Murphy corners and sinks the German sub, but also kills himself in the process.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murphy%27s_War

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Triteleia Laxa
  324. Ron Unz says:
    @Sean

    Powell went as far as claiming that the CIA was responsible for the deaths of Lord Mountbatten, Airey Neave and Robert Bradford.

    Very interesting. I’m extremely skeptical of that possibility, so Powell seems more delusional than I’d realized.

    • Replies: @Matra
  325. Matra says:
    @A123

    What concessions will Ukraine offer to make up for their War Crimes targeting Crimean civilians?

    If the Ukie side demands territory that allows them to repeat their War Crimes… That will simply lead to the next war. The Ukrainian side can refuse sincere contrition

    When is the last time American-aligned war criminals ever had to answer for their atrocities? Serbia? Iraq? Libya? NATO’s support for Ukraine means the Ukrainian leadership can rest easy knowing that they will never be prosecuted for anything.

    If you are on Telegram, which unlike all other social media is not censored by the NATO libtards & communists, you’ve seen utterly repulsive Ukrainian war crimes against defenseless Russian POWs. The crimes involving mutilations and worse show that the Ukies of today are cut from the same cloth as those who collaborated with Hitler and exterminated 100,000 Poles right after the Second World War. Shame on Poland for supporting such atrocities. Unfortunately, I have little faith these Ukrainian war criminals will be brought to justice as the Russian leadership itself doesn’t seem to give a shit about its soldiers, who appear to have been sent to fight with one arm tied behind their backs. Hopefully Russia will soon get serious and fight back against the American filth who are responsible for this war, and almost all the other wars of the last three decades, but I doubt it as Putin appears to be a typically unimaginative boomer conservatard.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @A123
  326. Matra says:
    @Ron Unz

    I’m originally from N Ireland and have relatives who’ve been in both the highest levels of government security and one paramilitary (ie.terrorist) organisation. Nobody who lives there takes seriously these accusations of US involvement in these killings. Carrying out an assassination in Ireland of a political rival is almost comically easy when compared to the US or Britain. Powell was always like a fish out of water in Ulster. He never really understood the place, including his own voters.

    • Replies: @Sean
  327. Mr. Hack says:
    @A123

    Problem is that *Zelensky* seems to be a true autocrat. There doesn’t seem to be any institution capable of sending him off to retirement. Which is of course pretty scary, because he might be genuinely unhinged by now if he really believes what he’s saying.

    Why would anybody want to send Zelensky off to retirement? He’s been courageous as a leader, helping his people through this hard time with optimism and hope for a sovereign country with inviolable borders, everything that Putler has spit on. Your undying sympathy for the Russian side squarely put you within the camp of kremlin stooges. Your antics here in support of Putler’s war is getting old and tedious, as is your next statement:

    What concessions will Ukraine offer to make up for their War Crimes targeting Crimean civilians?

    Can you name even one casualty of Ukrainian war crimes aimed at Crimean civilians? Even one??

  328. AP says:
    @Matra

    you’ve seen utterly repulsive Ukrainian war crimes against defenseless Russian POWs.

    Telling that you are less concerned about the crimes committed by those POWs and their compatriots against civilians in the place they have invaded. I guess you identify more with Russian soldiers who invade a country and rape and murder civilians there, than with the victims’ outraged compatriots. Old fashioned values of yours?

    The crimes involving mutilations and worse show that the Ukies of today are cut from the same cloth as those who collaborated with Hitler and exterminated 100,000 Poles

    So you equate Russian rapist-and-murderer-soldiers killed today, with Polish women and children murdered in the 1940s. Nice glimpse into your morality.

    BTW, remind me how many German civilians (women and children) you Anglos incinerated at around the same time that Ukrainians had killed Polish civilians. It was far more than the number of Polish civilians murdered by Ukrainians. And while all of these murders were unjustified, yours were even less so. It was just a dirty century, few had clean hands and yours were dirtier.

    But, as you have demonstrated, you identify with killers of children as long as they are in uniformed armed forces.

  329. @AP

    In a war both sides commit atrocities, and no one has a clean hand. The victor ends up writing history and wipe their own horrors clean. Russia may be mighty in the fields, but the US is lending propagandistic strength to clear Ukraine’s name.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Pixo
  330. AP says:
    @S

    How can the US/UK as nations possibly care about the Ukrainian people if they don’t even care about their own Anglo-Saxons?

    I think when speaking of Anglo-Saxon you should probably also include Normans who are overrepresented among the “WASP” elite.

    You’re being a bit cynical. I think Spengler was kind of right when he claimed Anglos were Viking heirs who were masters at raids, plunder and commerce. They could be cruel to their victims but treated their own well. Anglo places (USA, Canada, Australia, UK) continue to offer an excellent quality of life to their people. Within these places, WASPS live particularly well. The places in the USA with the highest percentage of English ancestry are great:

    New England, Utah, the nicest parts of the West Coast.

    The US/UK ‘cares’ about the Ukrainians in the same way a thief ‘cares’ about his mark, a fox cares about his hen, or, a master, his slave. In other words not at all in any positive or good sense.

    The Anglo democrat system depends on the consent of the governed (obtained through persuasion/marketing) rather than on stuff like fear of the government, another way that the system is great for its own people. By being shown the very real Russian crimes in Ukraine, the people of the USA and UK are sincerely outraged and want to help. Anglo-Saxons, like most people, are usually decent, and they really do care when shown suffering. There are lots of Anglos even going to Poland in order to volunteer their time and money to help. And they support providing arms to Russia’s victim.

    Even at a cynical state level, Ukraine is not the target of plunder by the Anglos. Rather they want Russia and particularly China cut down to size (utu’s observation of Russia being the chicken that is killed in order to frighten the monkey is a very good one, but Russia has caused its own problems for the Anglos in the Middle East). Helping Russia’s victim, Ukraine, is a very cheap way for the Anglos to do so. So it’s an example of justice coinciding with Anglo interests. This is of course very positive for Ukrainians, they are being helped in their desperate struggle for survival because their success and concomitant Russian failure happens to be desired by the Anglos.

    These corrupted Anglo-Saxon elites and their hangers on ‘cared’ more about their slaves, chattel or wage, skilled and unskilled, than their own people.

    If this were true it would be more of a Latin American type of place. Most Anglo-Saxons live well in the USA.

    Chattel slavery and its trade historically corrupted large and powerful segments of the Anglo-Saxon elites of the United States and United Kingdom. It still does via it’s monetization, wage slavery, ie the so called cheap labor/mass immigration system, the economic and political basis of the modern progressive multicultural state

    Well, cheap labor and mass immigration mostly harms poor blacks, non-WASP people such as working class Scotch-Irish or others. It helps the well off Anglos and those who live among them such as non-Anglo upper middle class people.

    • Disagree: S
    • Replies: @German_reader
    , @S
    , @216
  331. keypusher says:
    @A123

    And yet Not-the-President and Not-the-Vice-President, idiots though they plainly are, nevertheless are kicking Russia’s ass!

    This is just to say that while obviously it would be better for Ukraine — and, frankly, better overall policy — for the West to step up the economic measures against Russia, Russia simply isn’t strong enough to make it genuinely necessary.

    https://www.slowboring.com/p/mancur-olson-end-of-history?s=r

    Bizarre, isn’t it?

  332. Mikhail says: • Website
    @A123

    There’s also the Biden-Harris porn video:

    • LOL: Yellowface Anon
  333. An update on the refugee situation. Sweden has now taken in 34K refugees from Ukraine. Previously the government refused to do prognostications but rather released “scenarios”. There are now almost 10 weeks since the war started, so the first actual forecast has been released.

    We’re expected to take in 80K Ukrainian refugees (not counting their families, who will be let in at a later stage) this year. Contra rightoid propaganda, we’re not slamming the door. Almost 80% of all Ukrainian refugees who have asked for asylum have been granted it, with the remaining 20% most likely being from other countries (e.g. Nigeria) where they can return safely.

    Moreover, the government has said that we’re prepared to take in even 200K if it comes to it. The only thing our PM warned about was that we cannot be expected to take a disproportionate share like we did in 2015, which is absolutely correct. This was twisted/misinterpreted on purpose by bad faith actors.

    I’ve personally asked several organisations that I’ve volunteered with in the past if they need any help dealing with the newcomers for “weekend warriors” like myself but the answer I got back is that they’ve had to tell their permanent staff that much less is needed than anyone expected.

    Swedish society appears to be exceptionally well-prepared to help these people and there is strong social solidarity that I can pick up on in casual conversations with people. It doesn’t feel contrived.

    Moreover, as I’ve noted in the past, we’ve had a massive cutdown on refugee intake from 2016 onwards. Last year we had barely 11K. Even prior to 2015, we had 50-70K per year. This means we had tons of spare capacity once the war broke out and now the Ukrainians will be beneficiaries of that.

    Yet it’s not all roses. There are many firms creating specific jobs only for Ukrainians, often involving things like cleaning or other service jobs. This has led to complaints from NGOs and non-European immigrants that they are getting privileged access in a way that wasn’t the case for Syrians or Afghans.

    I personally question this narrative. As I recall, a huge point of contention was that many of these prior refugees were given gigantic subsidies in the event of getting hired (so as to encourage Swedish firms to get them hired). Some did, but the moment the subventions ended typically the Syrians and Afghans were no longer profitable and subsequently fired. By contrast, no such subventions are available now as far as I can tell, yet companies are more eager to hire.

    Finally, and not related to refugees but local politics, we’re getting out own racial/religious grievance party. In the Netherlands, you’ve had the DENK (Denk means “think” in Dutch) party, which openly seeks to gather votes from moslems and racial minorities. It was started by a bunch of turks with close ties to Erdogan’s AKP.

    Similarly, this current party is called “Nyans” (eng. Nuance) and, like DENK, has also been started by a turkish ethno-nationalist who was excluded after it came out that he had been involved in the ultra-nationalist Grey Wolves.

    They don’t have any shot at getting into the national parliament but it’s possible that they could pick up a few local council seats for a few major cities, including Stockholm. Their influence is likely to be very marginal but clearly this will increase polarisation and make arguments easier for the far-right. Not a good thing.

    • Replies: @216
  334. Mikhail says: • Website

    Good to know:

    https://www.rt.com/news/554797-annalena-baerbock-heckled-ukraine/

    New administrations in Germany, US and UK.

    • Replies: @LatW
  335. German_reader says:
    @AP

    BTW, remind me how many German civilians (women and children) you Anglos incinerated at around the same time that Ukrainians had killed Polish civilians.

    British troops at the time would never have butchered defenseless women and children with farm implements like Ukrainian nationalists did. Area bombing was an extreme form of warfare (not mass murder for ethnic cleansing, another difference), but it also was a distanced form of killing, and risky for the air crews (50 000 from Bomber command killed in action). So I don’t think you should make that comparison, because it’s far from clear it’s to the benefit of Ukrainians.
    I don’t agree with Matra on the current issue, Russia is the aggressor and it seems pretty clear that Russian troops have committed appalling war crimes against Ukrainian civilians, so Russia is vastly more in the wrong. However, I do find the self-righteousness and double standards of a lot of Westerners nauseating. A lot of the “stand with Ukraine” normie shitlibs seem to believe America and her allies are a pure force for good in the world, which imo is neither true from a left-wing or liberal perpective nor from a nationalist one like mine.

    • Replies: @AP
  336. German_reader says:
    @AP

    Anglo places (USA, Canada, Australia, UK) continue to offer an excellent quality of life to their people.

    The English will be a minority in their own country in just 35-40 years, long before that in most urban centres.
    I don’t know if the quality of life is really that excellent for the English prole girls who have been forced into sexual servitude by Paki rape gangs. But I suppose they don’t matter as long as the profits for Johnson and his plutocrats keep coming in.

    • Thanks: S
    • Replies: @AP
    , @songbird
  337. 3 factual observations:

    1. Mariupol is still not conquered. Ukrainian resistance stands.

    2. There’s no Russian breakthrough in Donbas, or cauldron or encirclement.

    3. The Ukrainian military already retake territory East of Kharkhiv.

    So how does Russia win? Continue to grind out a few kilometres a day in the Donbas?

    Such insubstantial progress against a mobile defence can only mean large casualties. Nevermind losing ground elsewhere.

    Russia is probably two weeks, at most, from exhaustion on this effort, and they might take 50 kilometres in that time. This is dismal. They withdrew much further in a day after their Kyiv advance failed.

    Furthermore, Ukraine are already reinforcing with significant reserves and new Western equipment is beginning to filter into the frontline from when it was delivered 6 weeks ago, but needed to be trained on. For example, there is now footage of the switchblade drones.

    If what happened 6 weeks ago is coming through now, then what happened 5 weeks ago will come through next week etc. Therefore we should all know the avalanche that is coming. The next 6 weeks balance of power is baked in.

    Perhaps Putin can declare national mobilisation on 9th May, but that is too late. It’ll take at least a month for it to have an effect. It is likely that the Russian advance will be checked by then, even in their much more limited and concentrated operations since their defeat and retreat in the North. And then Ukraine will be able to exploit as they see fit.

    No expert has called Russian defeat in the Donbas in their current main effort, but you can expect to see the bolder ones do so over the next few days. In a week, almost all will. In 2 weeks, or thereabouts, Ritter, MacGregor et al. will be discussing some sort of Russian “super manoeuvre feint.” Or ranting about the irrelevant vanity project “Khinzal.” Or some other completely idiotic distraction.

    Essentially, the story of the last 10 days is that despite taking the easiest ground in Ukraine, Russia is taking so little, and what is easiest to take is also easiest to take back.

    And since Russia can’t breakthrough on the ground that is most favourable to them, Russia can hardly expect to force the Kyiv government into surrender.

    We are 70 days in and Russia has not yet even taken a Ukrainian city that has resisted. Nor can they operate in the air unimpeded, nevermind the ground.

    I wrote the following to Anatoly more than 6 weeks ago. I could literally write the same thing today and it would still be true. It was shocking and not believed by Russian partisans then. So how insanely more shocking must it be for them now:

    This is a good attempt to be positive, but let’s be serious: these are Russian tasks in order of difficulty. The further down the list is the harder they will be to achieve. Basically increasing by orders of magnitude.

    1. Achieve air supremacy.

    2. Occupy Mariupol.

    It seems like Russia will get here in a week, though it is hardly guaranteed.

    3. Occupy Kharkiv.

    4. Defeat all Ukrainian forces outside of cities.

    5. Occupy Odesa.

    6. Occupy Kyiv.

    This was supposed to happen in 48 hours. It has no chance of happening any time soon. Can the Russian army be combat effective that long? Probably not.

    7. Occupy Lviv

    How’s this going to happen?

    8. Maintain order in Russia, Belarus, Chechnya etc. under crushing economic depression.

    Good luck!

    9. Pacify infinitely supplied Ukrainian insurgencies.

    Literally a 0% chance of this happening.

    Since you’re still struggling with “1” and have no plans for anything above “4”, I would wish you luck but the endeavour is rotten and Lavrov will be sweating buckets to make something approaching a non-losers’ peace tonight.

    • Disagree: Mikhail
    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    , @LatW
    , @Triteleia Laxa
  338. A123 says: • Website
    @Matra

    When is the last time American-aligned war criminals

    Given the divisions in American politics the phrase “American-aligned” is a meaningless noise. Do you mean SJW/WEF aligned? That would make them opposed to MAGA and America.

    A similar linguistic problem impacts the other side of The Pond. The EU hates Europe, so “EU-aligned” and “Europe-aligned” are 180° opposed positions.

    Hopefully Russia will soon get serious and fight back against the American filth

    Putin has few options to directly attack “anti-American WEF/SJW filth”. Any attempt to do so could easily create MAGA casualties thus unifying the deeply divided American side. Putin has no reason to take such foolish actions.

    Blowing up Davos during a WEF meeting is tempting, but could easily generate unintended consequences.

    the Ukrainian leadership can rest easy knowing that they will never be prosecuted for anything.

    you’ve seen utterly repulsive Ukrainian war crimes against defenseless Russian POWs.

    There is no evidence the leadership of either side has ordered mutilation of prisoners. There is evidence that both sides have committed this type of activity. The first round of “body dumps” around Bucha appear to be Russian troops exacting payback as they left. The second round had white armbands worn by local Russia supporters. These murders were committed by Ukrainians, either civilians or their incoming military.

    Both sides have an issue with social media in the hands of individual soldiers. Once small groups see video of the other sides committing war crimes there is an understandable emotional response. Regardless of who started what, both national command authorities have imperfect control.
    ____

    What I am referring to is the criminal behaviour that preceded, and precipitated, this round of fighting. For example, the Ukrainian government committed a War Crime by building a Punishment Dam to cut off water to Crimean civilians. This was a construction project officially sanctioned by the government, not an individual act.

    The Ukrainians show no contrition for this crime. Mentally ill Ukrainians keep trying to justify their government’s targeting of civilians, and are proud that collective punishment was inflicted. For example: They use the justification “no one died”, thus implicitly embracing the War Crime of “non-lethal” collective punishment.

    Whether one is rational “recognizing the crime” or mentally ill “denying the undeniable”, the minimum viable Russian stance for an armistice is obvious. Any territory needed to protect the Russian civilian population will be retained.

    When will Ukraine have a government capable of accepting the minimum needed to reach an accommodation? Given the near deification of Zelensky, Saviour of Kiev, this is unlikely to be soon.

    PEACE 😇

    • LOL: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    , @AP
    , @sudden death
  339. A123 says: • Website
    @Yellowface Anon

    In a war both sides commit atrocities, and no one has a clean hand. The victor ends up writing history and wipe their own horrors clean. Russia may be mighty in the fields, but the US is lending propagandistic strength to clear Ukraine’s name.

    This is fairly rare. I mostly agree with you.

    One minor linguistic caveat:

    In a war both sides commit atrocities, and no one has a clean hand. The victor ends up writing history and wipe their own horrors clean. Russia may be mighty in the fields, but the *SJW, anti-American, Fake Stream Media* is lending propagandistic strength to clear Ukraine’s name.

    PEACE 😇

  340. AP says:
    @German_reader

    British troops at the time would never have butchered defenseless women and children with farm implements like Ukrainian nationalists did

    They conveniently didn’t have to; they just incinerated far more women and children from the skies. Ukrainian murderers were just poorer and less technologically advanced than Anglo ones were. You are making excuses based on classicism.

    But it wasn’t always impersonal. One of my grandparents in Germany witnessed an Anglo plane flying low and strafing civilians with machine guns. I think this practice was referred to as “turkey shooting.” An elderly American veteran once old me how he had thrown Japanese POWs out of an airplane without parachutes. They at least weren’t civilians. Is what Ukrainians are done to Russian POWs worse?

    Area bombing was an extreme form of warfare (not mass murder for ethnic cleansing, another difference

    In Germany they typically avoided industrial areas (which they could later use themselves) and targeted and attacked residential ones. One of my grandparents, a medical resident in Germany, was often treating survivors and witnessed these crimes.

    I do find the self-righteousness and double standards of a lot of Westerners nauseating

    By helping Ukrainians defend themselves from the Russian invaders, the Anglo world can redeem itself for the criminal invasion of Iraq.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    , @Wokechoke
  341. @S

    Your argument here is the reductio ad absurdum of the “dissident right.”

    “If someone doesn’t care about the Great Replacement theory, then they therefore care about nothing and are hateful and nihilistic and cynical and corrupt.”

    Well the vast majority of people don’t care about the Great Replacement theory. I do, but they don’t, and many of them are very loving and caring individuals who just don’t conform to your ideological worldview.

    It is tough, but them not caring about the one thing you’ve managed to learn to care about, does not make them sociopaths.

    Really, you can do a lot better and be infinitely more effective for your cause, our cause, by actually thinking deeply and developing an understanding of other people and not just relying on such trash simplifications.

    Improve yourself man!

    • Replies: @songbird
  342. AP says:
    @German_reader

    The English will be a minority in their own country in just 35-40 years, long before that in most urban centres

    I wouldn’t like that but they don’t seem to mind it, as long as they are in charge and wealthy.

    I don’t know if the quality of life is really that excellent for the English prole girls who have been forced into sexual servitude by Paki rape gangs

    Good point, I am more familiar with North America. Might a lot of those prole girls in England be the descendants of non-English settlers moving into factory towns? People with that background like the singer Morrissey are often of Irish descent. Not that this makes it better, but it suggests that Anglos themselves are not as harmed by it. The English countryside populated by English people seems to still be very nice.

    • Replies: @Coconuts
  343. A123 says: • Website
    @songbird

    read Enemy Mine. It was better than I thought it would be, though still pozzed in two places:

    George R.R. Martin has been Labour/Left long before such a stance became popular in the U.S. The occasional throw away line use to be easily ignorable. Enemy Mine was published in the 70’s.

    As an aside, the novella appears in a collection exclusively of George RR Martin works, yet it lists the author as Barry Longyear who is not George RR Martin. I am slightly puzzled by the story’s lineage.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @songbird
  344. German_reader says:
    @AP

    Is what Ukrainians are done to Russian POWs worse?

    Probably not (and I have no idea anyway what Ukrainian soldiers actually have done to pows, or how widespread such actions are). It would still be good though if Ukrainian military authorities told their soldiers not to mistreat pows. Or at least not to be stupid enough to film it and upload it on the internet.

    By helping Ukrainians defend themselves from the Russian invaders, the Anglo world can redeem itself for the criminal invasion of Iraq.

    That’s a pretty weird argument. “Redemption” would include punishment for the politicians responsible (not even necessarily prison, confiscation of most of their property might suffice), and consequences for the journalists who promoted the war. None of which has happened. And anyway, I disagree with the idea that decisions for supporting Ukraine should be based on such quasi-religious sentiments.
    Regarding neocon journalists, I just googled Max Boot…and to my great surprise I found he was opposed to a no-fly-zone over Ukraine:


    This is just one more piece of evidence what a demented lunatic utu is, he’s more extreme even than Max Boot.

    • Replies: @utu
  345. S says:
    @AP

    I suppose we’ll just have to agree to disagree, AP.

    I will leave you (or any interested) with an 1851 London Times editorial linked below, entitled ‘The American Minister in Ireland’, which reveals the true ugly and hateful face of the genocidal ideology of Multi-culturalism. It’s refreshing in it’s honesty as it doesn’t have the ‘positive spin’, something they hadn’t yet perfected at the time.

    It tells the story of the 1851 visit by the US ambassador to the UK, Abbott Lawrence, who almost certainly not coincidentally in this context was also a Massachusetts textile factory magnate and founder of Lawrence ‘Immigrant City’, Mass. It declares quite bluntly that due to the Irish people’s enmasse predation as wage slaves (ie so called ‘cheap labor’) by the United States that the Irish people will be ‘known no more’.

    That by diktat, imported immigrants who have ‘mixed’ with the Irish, and are ‘more mixed’, ‘more docile’, and ‘which can submit to a master’ will take the more purely Celtic Irish people’s place in Ireland. [With all due respect, this replacement slave race they are describing in this context is a clear reference to the descendants of the Plantation, the people of Northern Ireland today.]

    This reveals what is in reality the utter contempt held towards ‘immigrants’ and the resulting ‘mixed’ populations. They see them as slaves.

    The editorial then wryly comments how further profits are being made off the utter misery of the Irish people, as ships and rail roads have to be constructed to ship the Irish out.

    I hope the Ukrainian people survive the war.

    However, unless the Ukrainian people remove their present corrupt self declared ‘progressive’ government, or, it is somehow majorly reformed, you will be able to transpose the 1910 map of Lawrence, Mass (where Abbott Lawrence’s own well paid Anglo-Saxon local ‘Yankee girls’ who had been doing the work had long since been displaced by imported wage slave ‘immigrants’ being ‘paid starvation wages) over Kiev, Lviv, or, Kharkov.

    You won’t be asked. It will be done by diktat.

    Divide and conquer, divide and rule…


    https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=coo.31924079600965&view=1up&seq=296&skin=2021

    • Replies: @AP
    , @keypusher
  346. Mr. Hack says:
    @A123

    They use the justification “no one died”, thus “saneembracing the War Crime of “non-lethal” collective punishment. Whether one is rational “recognizing the crime” or mentally ill “denying the undeniable”, the minimum viable Russian stance for an armistice is obvious.

    And we’re to succumb to your supposed superior knowledge on this issue, as the arbeiter of who is “sane” and who is “mentally retarded” (I suggest that you look into a mirror to see a clear example of the later).

    If the Russians in Crimea had really wanted any water flowing from the Dnieper, all they had to do was pay for it, but no they didn’t. As far as “non-lethal collective punishment”, the US Department of State looks at it like this:

    The issue is not that there is coercive action impacting the population collaterally, but rather what that impact is and what mitigating humanitarian measµres are put in place. Therefore, the fact that the fabric of economic life of the civilian population is adversely affected as a result of economic warfare does not, in itself, amount to ‘collective punishment.’

    https://ccrjustice.org/files/StateDept%205001-5500.pdf

    Take your grievances to the State Department, or to the world court of the OHCHR, although this has already been done by Russia and found to constitute groundless pleas and resulted in unsympathetic responses. The fact that getting water to Crimea can be a costly sort of thing should have been thought through more carefully before Crimea was invaded and absorbed anschluss style into Russia proper.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  347. AP says:
    @A123

    For example, the Ukrainian government committed a War Crime by building a Punishment Dam to cut off water to Crimean civilians.

    Sorry, but this is a very dumb take. In the 1960’s, the Soviets irrigated semi-arid grassland in northern Crimea to turn it into artificially productive farmland (they were into irrigation projects, killing the Aral Sea around the same time). Ukrainians reversed this Soviet project and returned Crimea to its natural state. Nobody died from this, drinking water was not eliminated. This is no “war crime.” It just cost Crimea money.

    • Agree: sudden death
    • Replies: @A123
  348. AP says:
    @S

    You map shows how the unruly, poorly disciplined Scotch-Irish (useful tools for Anglos for killing and stealing land from Irish Catholics and Injuns, not so great as factory workers) were replaced by kinder and more docile Italians, Poles, etc. How did the Poles, Italians, Ukrainians, Slovaks etc. who replaced the Scotch-Irish fare under the Anglo system? Pretty damned good.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ethnic_groups_in_the_United_States_by_household_income

    However, unless the Ukrainian people remove their present corrupt self declared ‘progressive’ government, or, it is somehow majorly reformed, you will be able to transpose the 1910 map of Lawrence, Mass (where Abbott Lawrence’s own well paid Anglo-Saxon local ‘Yankee girls’ who had been doing the work had long since been displaced by imported wage slave ‘immigrants’ being ‘paid starvation wages) over Kiev, Lviv, or, Kharkov.

    If Ukraine survives this war and eventually joins the EU it will follow in Poland’s footsteps. Poland is a great place with a wonderful quality of life.

  349. @A123

    building a Punishment Dam to cut off water to Crimean civilians. This was a construction project officially sanctioned by the government, not an individual act.

    Should be getting at least basic facts right before boasting in humanitarian righteousness – all those dams were built long before UA became independent for the purpose of irrigating agricultural arid lands of northern Crimea and after RF landgrab water pump valves were shut down in order to increase cost of occupation IIRC.

    btw, your slimy duplicity is quite obvious as not a single slight peep was heard from such great international humanitarian SJW about RF shutting down gas pump valves for everyday living needs of Bulgarian and Polish civilians.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • LOL: A123
    • Replies: @Beckow
    , @A123
  350. songbird says:
    @A123

    Curious, the only connection I can find between them is that they were both published in Asimov’s and, I think, Analog.

    The novelization of the movie (which I read) had a co-author, David Gerrold, who wrote several Star Trek episodes/premises, including creating Tribbles. Though, he also appears not to be George RR Martin.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    , @A123
  351. Killing of shroederism is gathering up the steam in Germany:

    The vice-chancellor previously called for new infrastructure at “Tesla speeds.” The American carmaker recently stunned Germans by erecting and opening Gigafactory close to Berlin in a mere two years.

    Unlike German companies, Tesla began construction before receiving its final permits, a model that Habeck now aims to replicate in the efforts of escapin“vice grip” of Kremlin gas.

    “In case of doubt, you have to start acting early. First, dig the trench where the pipe is to go in, then the permit comes,” he said, adding that this process wneed someone who is politically responsible.
    “I am ready for that at any time”, he said.

    Companies are already lining up to realise Habeck’s vision, drawing on the unprecedented amount of political backing and state funding coming. Already, the fiscally-conservative finance minister Christian Lindner has made €3 billion available to support the leasing of floating LNG terminals.
    “Dependence on Russian energy imports must be reduced quickly and sustainably,” tweeted Lindner. “Floating LNG terminals make an important contribution to this, for which we must provide funding,” he added.

    These Floating Storage Regasification Units (FSRU) can be moored at Germany’s coastal deepwater harbours and will enable the German utilities to begin receiving shipments of LNG from as far away as the US and Qatar.

    Much of these developments will take place in Wilhelmshaven, which is due to host two of these floating terminals and have a permanent one constructed on land. Together, those projects will provide Germany with the capability to import around 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas a year, almost matching the Russian gas flows of 40 bcm in 2021.

    But the project pipeline does not end there. In Brunsbüttel, a land terminal with a capacity of 8 bcm will be constructed, where the local government is already rushing through legislation that will limit environmental groups’ ability to delay the project through lawsuits.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/germanys-habeck-we-have-to-try-the-unrealistic-to-break-free-from-russian-gas/

  352. @songbird

    imho, Enemy Mine is just more or less competently written, but ordinary antiwar story of USA-Japanese soldier island fighting for some reason scantily clad in “science fiction alien star wars” trope drag.

    • Replies: @songbird
  353. songbird says:
    @sudden death

    The antiwar analogy is easy to see, (common in a lot of scifi). But I thought the Drac philosophy about lineage was pretty interesting.

    In order to be counted adults, they need to memorize a long list of their ancestors and their deeds (around 200, that’s over >10,000 years) The names repeat after a series of around five. The idea being that names aren’t as important as their deeds.

    Any scifi you’d recommend, sudden death?

    • Replies: @Adept
    , @sudden death
  354. Pixo says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    “Russia may be mighty in the fields, but the US is lending propagandistic strength”

    This is endlessly repeated by Russophiles since Week 2 of the war, when signs of Russia’s likely defeat started appearing.

    Seems to me, however, Ukraine is winning *both* the propaganda war and on the fields.

    This shouldn’t be surprising in retrospect. Russia’s tactic of telling endless big and obvious lies is bad propaganda and also bad military strategy. “We aren’t going to invade” “It isn’t a war” “We never intended to take Kiev in the first place.”

    People with pride and self respect recoil at defending such lies. It contributes to demoralization of soldiers and on the homefront.

    Russia’s propaganda war defeat may also have something to do with the lack of help from its supposed ally Belarus.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    , @Wokechoke
  355. songbird says:
    @German_reader

    Samo Burja is saying that Europe might someday become categorized as “formerly developed countries.”

    Granted, he doesn’t have a perfect record of prediction, but this one seems plausible to me, for Western Europe. MENA largely appears to be a dump. (semi-exception might be the European part of Turkey, if you take out the migrants).

    Anyway, though I do use it myself, I think the three-tier classification of countries should be retired. IMO, there is too much hubris and complacency in it, and anyway, not enough gradations. Obviously, there is a difference between a place like DRC and Malaysia. Similarly, I think it is pretty clear that there is a difference between places with safe cities with clean public bathrooms (Japan) and places with dangerous cities and poor public bathrooms (the West).

    • Agree: German_reader
  356. Beckow says:
    @sudden death

    An interesting comparison, water for Crimea – gas for Poland-Bulgaria. Both are voluntary transactions that the supplier had the right to stop. The difference is the way this is treated by the West: one is ignored, the other constantly demonized. Don’t you find that somehow “unfree” or even propaganda? Some balance is needed to have a civilized discourse.

    You get all hot aunder the collar about the “slimy shutting down of gas for the everyday living needs“, but the governments declared that they won’t pay Gazprom. What would you expect? Charity gas?

    I explained before why paying in “euros” is in effect not paying under the current circumstances – euro is a house currency issued by EU and keeping accounts in EU in euros that EU can confiscate doesn’t meet the minimum requirement for a definition of “payment”. Any rational seller would refuse since EU effectively demands that Russia provides the gas for free.

    Poland will be fine, they can start digging for coal again, or cover their Baltic shores with LNG terminals. Or ask Greta what to do.

    Bulgaria not so much, they are clueless and cornered. But Bulgaria is down to barely more than 5-6 million mostly elderly people with almost no industrial activity, maybe Brussels could just send some blankets or even gently suggest easing euthanasia laws. And Bulgaria is perfectly positioned as a migrant repository on the EU borders, this could be a win-win.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  357. songbird says:

    People who record themselves singing showtunes should be banned from holding public office.

  358. Beckow says:
    @Pixo

    I agree that the real war vs. propaganda dichotomy has been over-used. They are different: real war is about fighting an enemy and propaganda about controlling domestic population. They don’t have much to do with each other until eventually in the future they have to be reconciled.

    So far all sides are winning the propaganda war at home: Kiev, Russia, West, by managing their domestic audiences. But in the long run what matters is who wins the real war. Skillful propaganda can mitigate a loss, but it will be too obvious.

    West previously suppressed lost wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, even Vietnam – but those wars were far away and allowed domestic opposing views while the wars were taking place. That is not the situation today: West has made Ukraine too central to its life and aggressively suppressed opposing views.

    That could create a dilemma: somebody will win in Ukraine and odds are that it will be Russia. Then what? Maybe they will redefine “winning a war” as they redefined gender and free speech. But the endless redefinitions could have harsh mental consequences on the culture.

    • Agree: Wielgus
    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
  359. utu says:
    @German_reader

    “Anglo world can redeem itself for the criminal invasion of Iraq.” …. “That’s a pretty weird argument.”

    Keep in mind that you are dealing here with the “professional” Ukrainian for whom formulating a pro-Ukrainian arguments and spouting them comes easy in any circumstance of facts and logic regardless of sense and reason. He makes arguments regardless of their validity and shamelessness factor: remember his Ukrainian Red Army soldiers in Berlin 1945 were helping old women cross the street and singing lullabies to children. Professional propagandist can’t afford shame. He attempts to tune and tailor his arguments to the interlocutor prejudices and biases. He looks for a soft spot in his interlocutor prejudices which is a sign of patronizing and instrumental treatment of his interlocutor. Here he uses the disparaging term “anglos” as if he was trying to ingratiate with quasi nationalist Chicanos from LA counting on your German anti-Americanism while forgetting that your father is English and then he connects Iraq war counting on your German pacifist anti Americanism to preempt ‘whataboutist’ counter argument.

    Max Boot is soft head wimp.

    • LOL: sher singh
    • Replies: @German_reader
    , @Mikel
    , @AP
  360. Wokechoke says:
    @Pixo

    There’s a difference, the Attack down the Dneiper valley toward Kiev was through Belarus. A very long vulnerable supply line should the Minsk government not want to support the effort.

    The issue in Crimea is very different. There are Russians there. Lots of them. Driving them out requires a genocide.

    The Russians produce their own weaponry and are now aware of what can be thrown at them.

    • Replies: @Pixo
  361. Wokechoke says:
    @AP

    How much is the CIA paying you for this character?

    It’s quite the hamfisted attempt at Narrative Jamming.

    The English have no idea what they are supporting. Thanks Daily Mail, Times, Telegraph, Mirror, Sun.

  362. Wokechoke says:
    @Mr. Hack

    Erasing Nikolaev should be job 1 for the Russians.

    Especially the mayor. They’ll keep Kherson.

  363. German_reader says:
    @utu

    Keep in mind that you are dealing here with the “professional” Ukrainian for whom formulating a pro-Ukrainian arguments and spouting them comes easy in any circumstance of facts and logic regardless of sense and reason.

    Bit harsh, but AP’s arguments do indeed often feel rather forced, and have a chameleon-like quality depending on the interlocutor (it was very weird when he tried to use quasi-pan-Slavist arguments on Karlin). I guess one has to show some tolerance for it, given Ukraine’s dire straits.

    your German pacifist anti Americanism

    I’m not a pacifist and never have been. I admit to being anti-American, though even regarding that I feel somewhat ambivalent (Russia and China aren’t appealing alternatives either). If the US were more of a “normal” country (without endless mass immigration, ever more insane “progressive” ideology and rampant interventionism abroad), I’d be content to accept American leadership of a Western family of nations. But as it is, I can’t view American hegemony as an unalloyed good.

    Max Boot is soft head wimp.

    Lol. I guess that’s a novel take, at least on UR.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  364. Pixo says:
    @Wokechoke

    I agree Crimea should stay part of Russia.

    I disagree if you are saying later on Russia can replace its losses anytime soon.

  365. Climate change-migration will probably displace war-related migration in the coming decades.

  366. @Emil Nikola Richard

    Well, the modern world does give it’s denizens a purpose in life. Material acquisition, personal actualization through material acquisition, and transcendence channeled through the submersion of self into other’s political realities!

    In all seriousness though, I agree fully with your point. I find it unutterably sad that we live in a world where purpose in life and honor are treated as truly alien and strange concepts.

  367. German_reader says:
    @Thulean Friend

    That’s indeed pretty concerning. iirc there are projections that climate in parts of India could become so bad that humans will be no longer able to live there.
    Unfortunately the climate issue, despite possibly being existential, will probably be another casualty of this new round of great power rivalry.

  368. 216 says: • Website
    @AP

    If this were true it would be more of a Latin American type of place. Most Anglo-Saxons live well in the USA.

    Whites are explicitly discriminated against in the US by a matter of law and custom. The Republican Party cannot win an election in CA or NY because of rampant anti-white racism. The life expectancy of whites went down 2010-20 when it went up for every other group.

    What you are posting is naked subversion. Stop.

  369. I don’t think Ukraine is well served by it’s Western military advisors:

    • Replies: @216
  370. @Thulean Friend

    Of course, there have never been heat waves before.

  371. 216 says: • Website
    @Thulean Friend

    Finally, and not related to refugees but local politics, we’re getting out own racial/religious grievance party. In the Netherlands, you’ve had the DENK (Denk means “think” in Dutch) party, which openly seeks to gather votes from moslems and racial minorities. It was started by a bunch of turks with close ties to Erdogan’s AKP.

    Similarly, this current party is called “Nyans” (eng. Nuance) and, like DENK, has also been started by a turkish ethno-nationalist who was excluded after it came out that he had been involved in the ultra-nationalist Grey Wolves.

    This is why every Western land should have an “Anti-Subversion Act” which would summarily deport any dual national that engages in these efforts.

  372. @Mikel

    Hi Mikel, I realize I missed your question on seeds from the last thread. I don’t do much with planting honestly. I do a lot more with animals since gardens require all the effort in my slamming busy summer building season. My wife and kids do some, but nothing really intensive. I get all my veggies from a local market gardener who uses some of the land at my shop. He keeps me in veggies for free.

    I asked him and he gets stuff from Fedco and Johnny’s Seeds. It doesn’t seem like Linseed should be too exotic to get. Have you checked at a local feed store that sells cover crops seeds, soil amendments, and animals feed and supplies? Usually they have a good selection of stuff like that. I’m not talking about Tractor Supply since they are useless unless one wants some weird “farm” decor. If you find out where the actual farmers go, you should get pointed in the right direction.

    • Replies: @Mikel
  373. 216 says: • Website
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    We know that the USSR sent pilots into the DPRK and NVA air forces during the respective wars. Both sides got the then state-of-the-art Mig-15 and Mig-21.

    So its justified for the US to send F-35 to Ukraine, and send American pilots reflagged as Ukrainians.

    That the US hasn’t done this is evidence of a lack of seriousness.

    • Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter
  374. LatW says:
    @Mikhail

    Wow, one can really see the class differences there between supporters and non-supporters. All those booing are from a lower class (visibly underpaid middle age dudes). Like in other places in Europe and the US.

    P.s. On good news, it looks like the long-awaited evacuation of civilians from Azovstal will take place. Fingers crossed. There are very young children stuck there.

    • Replies: @Sean
  375. @216

    There is another explanation.

    It could be evidence that they know they would get their asses handed to them.

  376. Sean says:
    @Matra

    Airey Neave was killed in the House of Commons underground car park, not Coalisland and Powell was not without contacts in the security services. The ex deputy head of MI6 for example. The post Brexit current problems over the status of Northern Ireland show that Powell understood the issues in that Province rather well, better that the people who lived there one might say. Powell was the original Briexiteer, and his ideal of complete integration of NI into the UK was shared by the Official Unionist leader. Integration of NI into the UK was the lost dangerous veiw to hold in NI, and if I recall correctly one Unionist who tried to participate in elections as a an official British Conservative Party candidate was proptly murdered. On a trip to Dublin Paisley once talked to reporters of NI joining the Republic if there were certain guarantees. Powell understood an undercovers unification was what the NI Office policy was, and implacably opposed it. And he also knew that since Suez the British Civil Service echoed what the American view was and America wanted the EU as an adjunct to Nato. There is a lot uncertain about who was actually running the INLA, it certainly was not just Dominic McGlinchey, whatever Tim Pat Coogan credulously wrote. The targeting of their assasinination may well have had American conections

    In 1949 Powell wrote an article entitled ‘ The Atomic Bomb May Not Be Used’. He was also dubious about the Russian army being all that effective, and certain that Germany thought Russia had no intention of trying to conquer Western Europe. Powell saw Germany as power mad, it does not seem to be but it is cocooned within Nato so is a defence freeloaders while economically a powerhouse getting access to th US market as vallied ”ally” (ditto Japan, NK and Taiwan).

    Powell speech from 1971

    We shall not, I presume, be told that the EEC is the transitional stage towards a political unit which would include Russia. I confess to insurmountable personal difficulty in imagining a political unit – ‘family’, the bishop called it – from the North Cape to Sicily, from the Shannon to the Elbe; but only a lunatic could imagine a political unit from the Shannon to Vladivostock. No; the answer we receive is that a politically united Western Europe will be more capable of waging war successfully with Russia and her allies and therefore arguably is less likely to be involved in it.

    […]. On the other hand, if Germany is to be reunified, the most dangerous form of that reunification would be the addition, if it could be imagined, of East Germany to a politically unified Western Europe, presenting to the East the spectacle and prospect of a huge power confronting and threatening it. This would be all the more so, if that politically united Western Europe already included the British Isles. It follows that, if Germany’s future is the apprehended danger to the peace of Europe, that danger is not diminished but enhanced by the Community as an instrument of political unification…

    In 1993 Yeltsin was attempting to get Russia accepted into the procedure for joining Nato, and officially asked President Clinton for a halt of expansion of Nato eastwards as a breach of at least the spirit of the 1990 treaty ending the Cold War. Yeltsin got the runaround on both counts; he then choose as his successor certain V. Putin.

  377. Mikel says:
    @utu

    Max Boot is soft head wimp.

    And a well known Putin stooge too 🙂

  378. Sean says:
    @LatW

    The visibly underpaid middle age dudes may think theses deaths are the result of the CIA assisting the Ukraine with the targeting Russian of generals. Silly fellows! Like this is some kind of proxy war in which Ukraine is going to join the long list of countries that pay for America’s failures in such wars. I can guarantee that the Russian army is never going to forget this.

    • Replies: @LatW
  379. There are some really funny people out there:

  380. Mikel says:
    @Barbarossa

    Thanks. Johnny’s didn’t have linseed and is not cheap either but I finally was able to find an online store with reasonable prices. Let’s see if I can grow enough to justify the price I paid and keep some of the harvest for future seeding.

    Contrary to what AaronB seems to suggest sometimes, there is a big market for small-scale farming and pretend-homesteaders (like me) all around the US so the products we demand have hobby-like prices. This shows that lots of people are already trying to live in contact with nature.

    Btw, you can’t imagine how many times I’ve used the argument ‘why doesn’t anyone ever get those prizes for paranormal phenomena’. I remember that in the 90s I was already using it. So it’s going to be very interesting to see how this actually works from the inside, though admittedly dowsing is more of a controversial technique than a paranormal phenomenon.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
  381. LatW says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Such insubstantial progress against a mobile defence can only mean large casualties.

    That’s exactly what it’s called – “mobile” or “maneuverable” defense. It’s what the Ukrainian military experts have been calling it for weeks. The troops advance, but also retreat in small areas, if needed. The Ukrainians are fighting a modern war, while the Russians seem to be doing what they learned in their academy (entirely theoretical based on WW2 experience) or even Moltke style. Interesting whether the Ukrainians learned it themselves after 2014, or if it was the NATO instructors who advised them on this, probably a combination of both.

    [MORE]

    Perhaps Putin can declare national mobilisation on 9th May, but that is too late

    Yes, it is late, it would take at least a month to get it ready. Plus, they’d have to supply everybody.

    Russia just went from an authoritarian country to a totalitarian one during the past year, accelerating in the last few months. The hardcore vatnik side is calling for the destruction of Ukraine, but out of those 70% who support the war, the majority are silent. That’s the consensus between the elites and the population (either open support with the letter Z, etc., or silent agreement).

    If they announce a mobilization, many in this silent population will react negatively or possibly even with panic (which might cause many young men to try to leave Russia). They may start wondering about where their splendid Armed forces are and why is a mobilization needed at all. Remember, how they used to say “The professionals will do the job”.

    It’s incredible, even Girkin-Strelkov warned about this months ago (all his rants can be found on a little YouTube channel called Roi TV from way back where he was warning about this).

    Hypothetically, they can put 18 million to arms, however, in this case Russia itself is not attacked (so what is the motivation?) and these are all people with no military experience, with families, jobs & other obligations. Even if you train them for a month, it is way too long (as you said), the Ukrainian side will not wait for them to be ready but will continue clearing out the land from the enemy. A month of training is laughable, they’ll be sent to a sure death. If people are given a choice of an arrest or sure death, they will choose arrest.

    It’s also possible that the Kremlin doesn’t even want to pass out weapons to such a large population. Who knows which way those weapons could turn.

    But they could try a mobilization in the Southern regions of Russia.

    I remember way back when I first heard the term “Rosgvardia”, I immediately thought they are forming a territorial militia across all of Russia (where civilians would practice once a month and be given arms like it is in Finland & the Baltic States). I thought it would become a formidable and impressive force. But it turned out that Rosgvardia is for policing political dissent, as well as small scale attacks that they did around Kyiv.

    Other “interesting” signs of the low morale in the Russian army – the Kadyrov’s gang had a skirmish with Buryat soldiers, where 10 soldiers were killed. It seems that the Kadyrov’s gang are put in place to police the Russian soldiers from deserting, the function of the NKVD during WW2. So brutal…

    Apparently, Gerasimov traveled to Izyum to lead the operation from there, this is very rare as they typically do not leave the General Headquarters. His career and reputation are on the line here. Today I heard some crazy news that he might be wounded, I don’t believe that though.

    Having said all that, unfortunately, they can still do a lot of damage and the boys are dying in large numbers. 🙁

  382. songbird says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Well the vast majority of people don’t care about the Great Replacement theory. I do, but they don’t

    Renaud Camus coined the term Grand Remplacement. “Theory” was not a part of it, but is clearly a partisan additive, meant to weaken or disarm the power of the idea, and to lower the status of people promoting it, by calling into question their sanity.

    You will not find the equal of the term anywhere (“____ theory”), where it might call into question progressive policy. No matter the scientific basis, for questioning the axioms.

    The term “Great Replacement theory” itself is a validation of the idea. If they did not care, they would not take the effort to call it into question or denounce it.

  383. LatW says:
    @Sean

    re:Gerasimov. If this really happened, and the Ukrainian side managed to do that (officers killed, maps destroyed, etc), then this is a grandiose hit. If this is true, more info will come out soon. And, btw, that general area around Izyum is very tricky, already during WW2 there were savage battles there (in much, much larger numbers). They are currently fighting on the bones of those fallen soldiers from WW2. Another layer… yes, May 9 will be different this year.

    The visibly underpaid middle age dudes

    Sorry, I didn’t phrase that right, they’re not “underpaid” but visibly unwilling or unable to participate in the modern economy (or only willing on their own terms). I totally understand their situation. I don’t judge them, as long as they don’t hurt others. It’s also not fair for them to be in that situation when all these “Greens” or upper class overeducated types just get government jobs and end up in a structurally better position where they look down on those guys. It shouldn’t be that way in Europe. And Ukraine gets hit with their anger, although Ukraine had nothing to do with it, these guys would protest many other Green coalition proposals (even if there was no war in Ukraine). It’s just striking to see such differences. There used to be a more solid middle.

    • Replies: @Sean
  384. Wokechoke says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    25 year old subalterns leading grey beards. That’s the Ukrainian grenadiers/grognards/jägers/guards reduced to. Walking out of combat through a forested area.

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/exhausted-ukrainian-soldiers-return-eastern-130359514.html

    This can’t last much longer.

    I suppose it is possible that the Ukrainians are holding a reserve of young men to fight but I’m not convinced they have not already lost the flower of their 18-25 men.

    It is a shame to see this happen. Almost makes me hope there is a planned offensive with a retooled Ukraine strategic reserve. They appear to be decent soldiers. Such loses on behalf of a Zhid president.

  385. Wokechoke says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    25 year old subalterns leading grey beards. That’s the Ukrainian grenadiers/grognards/jägers/guards reduced to. Walking out of combat through a forested area.

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/exhausted-ukrainian-soldiers-return-eastern-130359514.html

    This can’t last much longer.

    I suppose it is possible that the Ukrainians are holding a reserve of young men to fight but I’m not convinced they have not already lost the flower of their 18-25 men.

    It is a shame to see this happen. Almost makes me hope there is a planned offensive with a retooled Ukraine strategic reserve. They appear to be decent soldiers. Such loses on behalf of a Zhidozenskyy president.

  386. Wokechoke says:
    @Beckow

    25 year old subalterns leading grey beards. That’s the Ukrainian grenadiers/grognards/jägers/guards reduced to. Walking out of combat through a forested area.

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/exhausted-ukrainian-soldiers-return-eastern-130359514.html

    This can’t last much longer.

    I suppose it is possible that the Ukrainians are holding a reserve of young men to fight but I’m not convinced they have not already lost the flower of their 18-25 men.

    It is a shame to see this happen. Almost makes me hope there is a planned offensive with a retooled Ukraine strategic reserve. They appear to be decent soldiers. Such loses on behalf of a Zhidozenskyy president.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  387. Sean says:
    @LatW

    If this really happened, and the Ukrainian side managed to do that (officers killed, maps destroyed, etc)

    Such precise targeting (a Major-General head of the Russian army electronic warfare was killed yesterday along with his HQ staff) is surely due to America’s Defense Intelligence Agency providing the Ukrainians with the GPS location for the strikes. Nine generals and 36 colonels. I do not think General Milley is going to having having any cozy chats with his Russian counterpart the way he was with the Chinese one about preventing nuclear war. And targeting generals means the ones around Putin having seen their mentors killed will be more or less willing to obey and order from Putin to use a tactical nuke in Ukraine? I would not bet on the Russians being unable to solve the technical problems of removing a thermonuclear weapon from thits repository and taking it to the battlefields without the DIA knowing about it.

    Sorry, I didn’t phrase that right, they’re not “underpaid” but visibly unwilling or unable to participate in the modern economy (or only willing on their own terms).

    They have that in common with Russia then.

    And Ukraine gets hit with their anger, although Ukraine had nothing to do with it, these guys would protest many other Green coalition proposals (even if there was no war in Ukraine). It’s just striking to see such differences. There used to be a more solid middle.

    There is far more inequality. Wages are being held down by immigration, and the elites are filling up with immigrants too. It was an Indian that designed the sanctions against Russia that caught Putin’s financial geniuses with their pants down (0.8 trillion down the toilet). More than 60 percent of those working in computer, mathematics and engineering fields in Silicon Valley are foreign born, Silicon Valley’s Indians have much to do with the big tech firms not paying a reasonable amount of taxes on their profits? It is more and more the elite and their tame minions from abroad against the majority of the country who are redundant as workers and cannon fodder. Is that a recipe for success in a democracy?

    • Replies: @LatW
    , @Wokechoke
  388. Beckow says:
    @Wokechoke

    The losses are small compared to the population of Ukraine. Even more so in Russia.

    Ukraine has 35-40 million people, there are a few million men 18-25. Even the upper limit for losses is around 30-50k, or less than 3-5% – and many are older with a sprinkling of foreigners.

    What matters more are the attitudes of survivors: how happy are they with Zelensky sending them into a no-win situation? There will be some returning super-patriots angry that more wasn’t done. But the mass of survivors after the war will be angry that Zelensky allowed this to happen, and cheered on the desperate struggle. People do not take kindly to elites who see them as a disposable symbol.

    Unless Kiev pulls a miracle and somehow wins the war, the current leadership will emigrate and most-likely a very level-headed bunch of locals angry at everyone – Zelensky, Galicians, Nato, Russia – will take over. It will be back to borsht. Or something like what happened in Chechnia will happen in Ukraine.

    West underestimates how much people dislike being designated as sacrificial lambs.

    • Replies: @Sean
    , @Wokechoke
  389. Sean says:
    @Beckow

    Zelensky’s inclination was to fulfill Minsk 2 and end the war, but his popularity waned quickly and the nationalists who attained so much influence under Poroshenko would not let him or to put it another way, he would not have been reelected because Poroshenko would say ‘I told you he would sell out’.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  390. Adept says:
    @songbird

    For whatever it’s worth, Barry Longyear wrote a series of stories about a large circus ship that was touring a Galactic Empire, but crashed on a habitable, but uninhabited, planet. Left to fend for themselves, the performers and crew formed their own caste-based government (clowns, foremen, and magicians at the top,) and, a few generations and many misadventures later, were forced to make war.

    These stories were collected in “Circus World” and “City of Baraboo.” They’re extremely good — whimsical, original, and thought-provoking. I thought that they were far superior to Enemy Mine, which, though clever at times, was a little bit too saccharine and transparently sentimental for my tastes.

    • Thanks: songbird
    • Replies: @Ray P
  391. Wokechoke says:
    @Beckow

    Theyve not got more than 20,000 warriors. That’s not to say a middle aged man can’t fight well, but he’s supposed to be a mechanic, electrician, construction engineer etc at that age. Not a killer. War is a young arrogant man’s trade. If leavened with a few bully boy NCOs and upper class gallants that’s good enough for a prosperous nation.

  392. LatW says:
    @Sean

    Such precise targeting (a Major-General head of the Russian army electronic warfare was killed yesterday along with his HQ staff)

    It looks like this did happen, at least Arestovych said that 30 officers were killed there. If this is true, then this is a massively successful hit.

    [MORE]

    is surely due to America’s Defense Intelligence Agency providing the Ukrainians with the GPS location for the strikes.

    In Ukraine it’s common knowledge that the Americans are providing real time intelligence assistance. Even before the attacks, this is partly why there were initial successes. The Ukrainians might have their own resources, remember that for them this is a do or die situation (pun unintended).

    Btw, there’s no confirmation re: Gerasimov even being there. However, Arestovych said that they destroyed a special forces unit that was supposedly guarding someone of high stature.

    Modern economy… They have that in common with Russia then.

    That’s a good observation.

    It is more and more the elite and their tame minions from abroad against the majority of the country who are redundant as workers and cannon fodder. Is that a recipe for success in a democracy?

    Of course, not (even if these elites can march on for a while). This bothers me, as I already mentioned above. When you start touching on class issues (especially mixed in with foreigners), it can become very ugly.

    I wouldn’t want Ukraine getting mixed in with the Western European class struggles (for the lack of a better word).

  393. @sudden death

    You know who can’t wait for China to launch “Martial Reunification” 武统 wutong tomorrow…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_of_Taiwan

    is US Gov. In this regard the US and RF imperialists share the same interest. At that point PRC loses strategic flexibility and AUKUS+EU+Japan+SK all line up against it.

    “Martial Reunification” operational plans of course exist and used for as leverage for “Peaceful Reunification”. The precedents being mentioned are based on Chinese Civil War (1945-49). Specifically the Pingjin Campaign (1949) where Beijing’s KMT commanding general Fu Zuoyi was decisively defeated in a few smaller battles, then surrendered his huge army to the CPC, facilitated by his daughter who was a CPC agent.

    This is called in PRC history books “Peaceful Liberation of Beijing”, in ROC-Taiwan it’s called “Fall of Beijing”. And portrayed in the movie I rec’d to songbird, The Founding of a Republic

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
    • Thanks: songbird
  394. Wokechoke says:
    @Sean

    If these intelligence collisions hitting generals can be traced, I would not want to be a staff officer in the western military around about now. Of course wouldn’t want to be top brass in Russia either. Historically in war it was the commander who got killed. Lower ranks often changed sides according to pay offers.

  395. A123 says: • Website
    @AP

    Once civilians depend on it, separating “artificial” from “natural” is absurd. The canal started flowing in the 1960’s, though the full length did not finish until the 1970’s. That is over 50 years before the Ukrainian government built the Punishment Dam to impose suffering on Crimean civilians.

    Yes. Farmers are civilians. Destroying their livelihoods on government orders is “targeting civilians”. That the Ukrainian collective punishment of innocent Crimean civilians turned out nonlethal is a relief, but it does not justify the underlying War Crime.
    _____

    Regardless of your opinion of right or wrong, do you grasp the inevitable consequence of Ukraine’s construction of the Punishment Dam?

    It is the obligation of the Russian government to protect Crimean civilians. There is now a 100% certainty that Russia will hold the full length of the North Crimean Canal to the Dnieper River. Having proved their willingness to engage in collective punishment, subsequent Ukrainian administrations will not be given the opportunity to rebuild the Punishment Dam.

    PEACE 😇

  396. Wokechoke says:
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    If the chinks don’t back up Ivan now, they won’t have allies later on.

  397. Beckow says:
    @Sean

    …Zelensky’s inclination was to fulfill Minsk 2 and end the war, but his popularity waned quickly

    Ze got 70% promising peace and then went for war. Poroshko got less than 15%, he was in no position to be elected again.

    Zelensky abandoned his peace platform and what he is doing now is not helping. Minsk 2 was a better deal than where Ukraine is heading with this war. Ukrainians know it and there is no way for Ze to twist it into a victory. So there will be consequences and he will simply leave and live somewhere else with his millions.

  398. @Mikel

    I agree that there is a huge market for back-to-the-earth stuff. I find this to exemplified by Mother Earth News which used to be really quirky and interesting, and now has tractor ads every other page in between articles like “13 Chicken Grooming Techniques for Your Flock” or “How to Milk Your Goat Without Ruining Your Manicure”. Okay…that’s an exaggeration, though not a huge one.

    It’s certainly turned into a consumer thing in many ways with the idea that you can’t do anything without a \$35,000 Kubota tractor and a ton of other very specialized stuff. But everything gets turned into a consumer marketing gimmick nowadays. As was noted above in the thread, when Che Guevara gets turned into a consumer commodity, that says it all.

    The hobby prices of small scale ag stuff reminds of horse items. The same object for a cow will be half the price of a horse version… just of it’s perception as being high end. It is possible to avoid the high costs in large part, but it takes seeking out the alternatives. For example, I have a Mennonite farm supply place near me that carries just about everything usually at prices better than online anywhere. I just got a set of chains for my backhoe for \$200 less than anywhere online and they had them on the shelf. I was pretty darned happy!

    I think there is a great deal of discontent with the disconnect from the natural world, but that many people don’t really have a true desire to actually experience the unvarnished natural world. I talk to quite a few people who have very idealized ideas of farm life or a more “natural” life. I suppose they don’t really want that life, but they like the idea of the fantasy version. Such can be an easy mark for advertisers who promise the homesteader experience though insulated from the uncertainty and inconvenience by expert advice and state of the art equipment. Well, that’s largely an illusion but I suppose getting the tractor sold is all the dealer is really concerned with!

    On the dowsing, I was interested in why you think that dowsing would be more controversial than other categories paranormal phenomenon? I would think it would be somewhat less than something like spirits or ghosts, but perhaps I’m misunderstanding what you meant.

    • Replies: @Mikel
  399. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    I think the only “evidence” of military reunification plans to be implemented this year is a “leaked FSB intel” from Christo Grozev which is openly downplayed by diplomatic spokespeople on both sides of the straits, and nothing more. If the politburo and strategic planners commit a colossal blunder by jumping the gun, then I’d be like what AK says if Russia was defeated.

  400. A123 says: • Website
    @sudden death

    btw, your slimy duplicity is quite obvious.

    Nice bit of histrionic fabrication. Ad hominem attacks mark you as a mouth frothing crazy degenerate.

    not a single slight peep was heard from such great international humanitarian SJW about RF shutting down gas pump valves for everyday living needs of Bulgarian and Polish civilians.

    If you go back through my posting you will find multiple occurrences where I strenuously objected to Putin cutting natural gas flows to and through Poland. For example: (1)

    Deliberately interrupting deliveries via the Yamal (Belarus-Poland) pipeline showed that Putin is inherently unreliable.

    Everyone in Europe interpreted that way. Putin intentionally deployed legalistic minimalism to destabilize the European natural gas “spot market”. (2)

    According to Slovakian operator Eustream, the average daily volume of gas transfer from Russia between Jan. 1 and 9 had dropped to 54 million cubic meters — half the amount for the same period in 2021. The Yamal pipeline, on the other hand, has not been transferring any gas through Poland at all since the end of December.

    The fact that Putin intentionally went after European markets in an attempt to coerce NS2 startup is proven fact. There is no way for him to take back the failed attempt at blackmail.

    Here is a helpful tip if you want to be taken seriously.

    You should *stop lying*.

    PEACE 😇
    _________

    (1) https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-177-continuing-russia-ukraine-war/#comment-5200804

    (2) https://rmx.news/poland/us-gas-supply-to-eu-is-5x-higher-than-that-of-russias-gazprom-so-far-in-january/

    • Replies: @sudden death
  401. Wokechoke says:

    The Where….

    “During the Great Patriotic War, Kemerovo region became a major supplier of coal and metal. From Novokuznetsk steel produced over 50,000 tanks and 45,000 aircraft. In Kuzbass from the occupied areas were evacuated equipment 71 enterprises, most of which have remained in the Kuzbass.”

    …did whaaat?

    How many racoon cities have they got today? We really don’t know for certain.

    • Replies: @A123
  402. A123 says: • Website
    @songbird

    As an aside, the novella appears in a collection exclusively of George RR Martin works, yet it lists the author as Barry Longyear who is not George RR Martin. I am slightly puzzled by the story’s lineage.

    Curious, the only connection I can find between them is that they were both published in Asimov’s and, I think, Analog.

    Most likely, I misremembered. I am pulling details from “deep storage”, over a decade ago. The anthology had George RR Martin’s name on the outside. And, it and contained both Nightflyers and Sandkings which are among his most memorable short works. It must have been an anthology of multiple authors even though I do not have it mentally filed that way.

    (shrug)

    Mea culpa.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @songbird
  403. A123 says: • Website
    @Wokechoke

    How many racoon cities have they got today? We really don’t know for certain.

    According to Resident Evil, there are at least eight underground cities/complexes run by HSBC Bank The Umbrella Corporation. [MORE]

    Is one of these laboratories below what AK describes as a “Shanghai Cuckpod”? Inquiring minds want to know.

    PEACE 😇

     

    [MORE]

     
     

  404. @Wokechoke

    Chinks don’t need or want military allies. Military alliances are what led to WWI.

    Chinks are better off on continue working on being the best looking, most athletic guy with the most cash, then he can “spin plates” with Keiko, Annalena, and Delphine.

    Instead of being committed exclusively to Natasha, who despite being very beautiful, can be a handful…

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
    • LOL: LatW, keypusher
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  405. songbird says:
    @AP

    I hope all of Russia’s useful idiots here demand strict gun control for themselves and loved ones, in order to avoid the bloodshed that may occur when potential victims are armed.

    Not too long ago, you were repeating the progressive narrative that WWI was caused by nationalism, and that we should be Catholic universalists or something.

    Now you seem to have fused the two philosophies, while tossing Christian moralism out with the trash, and demand a universal Ukrainian nationalism, with unlimited potential for violence. That any moral person must advocate sending more and more advanced weaponry to Ukraine. That you must risk nuclear escalation. Give hundreds of billions of dollars that will never be paid back. Deplete your own defense stocks, while taking on decades worth of animus of a nuclear power, to say nothing of imploding your economy and freezing through the next winter (for the energy-dependent.)

    Or, as you say, you are a moron and a supporter of Putin and bad things should happen to your family, without them being prepared for them.

    So, have you changed your views on nationalism? Or is universal Ukrainian nationalism the only one allowed?

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @AP
  406. songbird says:
    @A123

    Don’t sweat it. Memory is but a Dalí clock. Not to mention, he has a kind of odd name that plausibly sounds like it is made-up.

  407. @songbird

    Ukrainians are assaulted on two fronts, militarily and by the Liberal ideology of their ostensible allies. AP shouldn’t make Bandera roll in his grave.

    • Agree: songbird
  408. Dmitry says:
    @German_reader

    chameleon-like quality

    This is a culture of American democratic citizens, who want to persuade their neighbor to support some activism. Political discussion in America, often sounds like lawyers talking to a judge, although with the disappointing potential reward of attaining a single more vote for your side, or perhaps a donation.

    So, AP is talking to the “low IQ” right-wing, anti-Muslim neighbor (although he lives in elite New England, so there are probably not so many neighbors like this – maybe his cleaning staff), he could focus on the topic of pseudo-Islamic Chechens raping post-Christian (“Ukrainians with Christian roots”) Ukrainians.

    If AP talking to the feminist Ivy League professor neighbor, he could discuss Ukrainian culture’s heritage of gender equality, with female representations of the monument of independence. If it was a more politically sophisticated person, he could focus about topics of emerging democracy in the postsoviet space.

    He also has skill finding the most effective insult for the interlocutor, who doesn’t agree with his viewpoint. So, when I disagree with him he said, that I was sounding like “Andrei Martyanov” (strange kremlinbot grandfather, who is obsessed about large missiles). It’s good try, as he knows I’m will respond with a reflexive distaste for my post to be compared with this kind of vulgar people.

    some tolerance for it, given Ukraine’s dire

    Although AP is less “Ukrainian activist” than people here claim. E.g. He even supports Trump who didn’t give weapons to Ukraine, as I posted last week. https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-185-russia-ukraine/#comment-5312715 He also has panglossian views about the war between Ukraine and Russia, before this year and supported loss of one of their best cities – Donetsk.

    He sometimes chooses crazy forum views like “conquistador revisionism” or romanticization of absolutist monarchy, then became attached to those. And he argues more strongly for those, than for Ukraine.

    I would say, usually, he just argues, because he wants people to agree with his views and this is very useful for stimulating the threads.

  409. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    BTW, they’ve finally moved the goalpost enough to say Shanghai has “dynamic COVID Zero”. Very physically damaging to the Shanghaiese psyche, but at least they deliver on what they set out to do, no matter the costs.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  410. Dmitry says:
    @utu

    Topic of heavy military equipment support for Ukraine is complicated for Germany, not only for the political and legal issues, but also because of the equipment itself. The equipment would have logistical, training, technological obsolescence, obstacles, for being useful for Ukrainians.

    There are very detailed videos made by “Military History Visualized” channel on YouTube about the reality of these German heavy weapons and if they would be relevant for Ukraine.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @utu
  411. Wokechoke says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    Happy Ending

    On a splintered tree stump in the biggest battlefield in the history of the world, Adam sat down and read a letter from Nina. It had arrived early the day before, but in the intensive fighting which followed he had not had a spare minute in which to open it.

    Doubting Hall,
    Aylesbury.
    ‘Dearest Adam,–I wonder how you are. It is difficult to know what is happening quite because the papers say such odd things. Van has got a divine job making up all the war news, and he invented a lovely story about you the other day, how you’d saved hundreds of people’s lives, and there’s what they call a popular agitation saying why haven’t you got the V.C., so probably you will have by now, isn’t it amusing?

    ‘Ginger and I are very well. Ginger has a job in an office in Whitehall and wears a very grand sort of uniform, and, my dear, I’m going to have a baby, isn’t it too awful? But Ginger has quite made up his mind it’s his, and is as pleased as anything, so that’s all right. He’s quite forgiven you about last Christmas, and says anyway you’re doing your bit now, and in war time one lets bygones be bygones.

    ‘Doubting is a hospital, did you know? Papa shows his film to the wounded and they adore it. I saw Mr Benfleet, and he said how awful it was when one had given all one’s life in the cause of culture to see everything one’s stood for swept away, but he’s doing very well with his “Sword Unsheathed” series of war poets.

    ‘There’s a new Government order that we have to sleep in gas masks because of the bombs, but no one does. They’ve put Archie in prison as an undesirable alien, Ginger saw to that, he’s terrific about spies. I’m sick such a lot because of this baby, but everyone says it’s patriotic to have babies in war time. Why?

    ‘Lots of love, my angel, take care of your dear self.

    N.’

    He put it back in its envelope and buttoned it into his breast-pocket. Then he took out a pipe, filled it and began to smoke. The scene all round him was one of unrelieved desolation; a great expanse of mud in which every visible object was burnt or broken. Sounds of firing thundered from beyond the horizon, and somewhere above the grey clouds there were aeroplanes. He had had no sleep for thirty-six hours. It was growing dark.

    Presently he became aware of a figure approaching, painfully picking his way among the strands of barbed wire which strayed across the ground like drifting cobweb; a soldier clearly. As he came nearer Adam saw that he was levelling towards him a liquid fire-projector. Adam tightened his fingers about his Huxdane-Halley bomb (for the dissemination of leprosy germs), and in this posture of mutual suspicion they met. Through the dusk Adam recognized the uniform of an English staff officer. He put the bomb back in his pocket and saluted.

    The newcomer lowered his liquid-fire projector and raised his gas mask. ‘You’re English, are you?’ he said. ‘Can’t see a thing. Broken my damned monocle.’

    ‘Why,’ said Adam. ‘You’re the drunk Major.’

  412. AP says:
    @songbird

    Not too long ago, you were repeating the progressive narrative that WWI was caused by nationalism

    This is the conservative narrative. But what would you know about that?

    Now you seem to have fused the two philosophies, while tossing Christian moralism out with the trash, and demand a universal Ukrainian nationalism

    You are being rather frantic.

    I simply state that Ukraine ought to have the means to defend itself against aggressors, just as individuals ought to have the means to defend their own homes from criminals.

    People who state that Ukraine should be denied weapons because Ukraine having weapons means more violence when Ukraine is invaded should apply this logic to themselves and their loved ones and practice strict gun control or avoidance of any weapons, because should they be assaulted there would be too much violence if more then just the aggressor were armed.

    • Replies: @songbird
  413. Dmitry says:
    @Dmitry

    And “Military Aviation History” channel, made a video about “The Problem with Heavy Weapon Exports to Ukraine” – whether Germany’ll give “Gepard” anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine.

  414. @songbird

    Myself interpreted Drac lineage storyline as sort of allegory/comparison about contrast of relatively „young“ American nation and „old“ Japanese civilization with sophisticated traditions and rituals.

    Sadly somehow managed to lose the pleasure of reading any fiction over the years, so my recommendations may be out of date, but my own SF favorites were Roadside Picnic by Strugatsky brothers and Futurological Congress by Stanislaw Lem.

    The first being about human psyche shattering consequences after careless and indifferent, almost accidental, short term alien visitors left the Earth and the latter perhaps being not everyone’s cup of tea, where specific type of dried wit is mixed with lots of frantic crazy psychedelic adventures set in some loose 3rd world chaotic backround, full of imaginary semantics and wordplays, but remember myself cackling like crazy while reading. Was reading both those books in Lithuanian translation, so don’t know whether English translations were successfully done.

    • Replies: @songbird
  415. utu says:
    @Dmitry

    You are trolling, Dmitri. Watch the videos yourself first and give us specific examples of “obstacles for [weapons] being useful for Ukrainians”.

    If the alleged obstacle is lack of training of Ukrainian crews and soldiers the only course of action is to organize training as soon as possible and not using it as an argument against giving that weapons to Ukrainians. Excuses heard from Germany and its administration on different levels of decision chain are obstructionist in nature.

    The lack of political will on the part of Germany political class so far is the biggest obstacle of providing weapons to Ukraine by Germany but also by former Warsaw Pact countries which are willing to provide Soviet made weapons. Lithuania was blocked by Germany to provide weapons that formerly belonged to DDR. Also Czech Republic was delayed by Germany in providing former East German weapons which Czech Republic acquired from Sweden. However there are some signs of change in case of Slovenia. But Slovakia got Patriots batteries from the US to provide S-300 to Ukraine, which btw Russians claimed that they have already destroyed.

    Hopefully this will change as more and more Germans are in favor of supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons. I am sure that there is American and British pressure and German media are critical of obstructionism by Scholz government.

    Germany political class does not want Ukraine to succeed at all or to succeed too much. So far the heavy lifting for Ukraine comes from the US, the UK and Poland (200 tanks from Poland). Germany and France as relatively large military powers and rich countries did disproportionately much less.

    IMO the US did not plan nor wanted to have confrontation with Russia in Ukraine though when they realized what Putin was cooking they and the UK began training and supplying Ukraine in the fall of 2021. They did not know how Ukraine would perform but if Ukrainian performance would be better than what was expected by many analysts and Russian disinformation agents large supplies of weapons would flow to Ukraine. Germany otoh was not ready for such possibility and still is not ready to accept that Putin miscalculated and is going to be defeated.

    The success of Ukraine on the battlefield showed to the world and China in particular that Russian military is weak and inept and the response of the West which somehow managed to get unified in military support and sanctions made the US change its pivot from that to China to that to Russia. They realized that Putin has created them exceptional opportunity of teaching China a lesson in Ukraine. Killing the chicken in Ukraine shows the monkey in Beijing who is the boss. Putin did not realize that he solved for America her Chinese problem. Taiwan will be sovereign and independently sooner that it was expected. We will just have to suffer from few tantrums of Xi and Taiwan will be free.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @German_reader
  416. @A123

    Remember your cited comments quite well as surprisingly it was very lucid and accurate interpretation of events, however yet again it does not have anything to do with my raised point about having slimy duplicit position – spot market machinations did not affect ordinary Polish citizens cooking meals in the kitchen, because long term contract was being fulfilled by Gazprom at the time.

    So, great international humanitarian SJW keeps mouth frothing about “Ukrainian war criminals” while still playing dead opposum when confronted with the fresh equivalent act of RF-ian war criminals led by Putin, whom unilateraly terminated the contract and cut the gas supply for ordinary Polish and Bulgarian people daily living needs.

    • LOL: A123
    • Replies: @A123
  417. AP says:
    @utu

    He makes arguments regardless of their validity and shamelessness factor: remember his Ukrainian Red Army soldiers in Berlin 1945

    You shamelessly claimed, with no evidence, that 1/3 of the crimes committed by Soviet soldiers in Germany were committed by Ukrainians, even though the victims themselves identified Russians or Mongols (i.e., Buryats and Tuvans) as the criminals and rarely mentioned Ukrainians. The rapists were often described as drunk, and it is well known that Ukrainians drink much less than do Russians (before beer became widely popular, per capita ETOH consumption was about 4 times higher in Russia than in Ukraine).

    The 8th guards army occupied Berlin, where a huge number of rapes occurred. It consisted of units formed in the Urals, the Volga, Voronezh,

    (you can check the links for individual units here. Origins for most but not all are provided, none of the ones with identified origins were from Ukraine, and very few of the leader surnames were Ukrainian, Makarenko was a rare one: https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/8th_Guards_Combined_Arms_Army)

    ::::::::::

    Ukrainians are simply, on average, kinder and gentler people than Russians and have been so historically. I know the homicide rate in Russia just dipped below the Ukrainian for the first time but that is an aberration.

    You betray your Polish origins (this, that was done to Poles, was the worst thing ever) with your comments about Ukrainian violence. What occurred in Volyn was horrible but not representative of Ukrainians and not transferable to Germans. And it was far from the worst thing that happened during World War II. And before you lie again and claim I justify this crime I will once again note that there is never any justification for slaughtering women and children or civilian men. Yet because all are crimes and all are evil, does not mean that all are equally evil.

    Here he uses the disparaging term “anglos”

    Is it disparaging? Didn’t know that. So in your opinion this article’s headline is a slur?

    https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/anglo-hispano-cultures-clash-ultimately-blend/article_f2390c4e-42f8-11ec-a73c-f7ff92ef2c72.html

    “Anglo, Hispano cultures clash, ultimately blend”

    He attempts to tune and tailor his arguments to the interlocutor prejudices and biases

    I speak of German events with Germans rather than with, say, Irish because they may understand them better. Your negative interpretation of my actions is a function of your paranoia. Paranoia is, of course, projected aggression. You are a very angry and hostile person, though this can be overlooked because you are also informative and entertaining.

    But I am consistent. I opposed the Iraq invasion and I oppose this one because I am against invasions (though this is not absolute – in rare cases such as Nazi Germany or the demon-worshipping Aztec empire invasion was necessary).

    • Replies: @AP
    , @utu
    , @Mikhail
  418. AP says:
    @AP

    No mention of Anglo being a slur on the wikipedia article for Anglo (though it says Irish can be offended when they are called Anglos):

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo

    Anglo is a prefix indicating a relation to, or descent from, the Angles, England, English culture, the English people or the English language, such as in the term Anglosphere. It is often used alone, somewhat loosely, to refer to people of British descent in Anglo-America, the Anglophone Caribbean, South Africa, Namibia, Australia, and New Zealand. It is used in Canada to differentiate between the French speakers (Francophone) of mainly Quebec and some parts of New Brunswick, and the English speakers (Anglophone) in the rest of Canada. It is also used in the United States to distinguish the growing Spanish-speaking Latino population from the English-speaking majority.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  419. songbird says:
    @AP

    This is the conservative narrative. But what would you know about that?

    No vague appeal to unnamed authority needed. Logically, if it were the conservative narrative, then it wouldn’t be the prevailing narrative today, and it is frankly ridiculous to assert otherwise, in an age when men are called “women.”

    I simply state that Ukraine ought to have the means to defend itself against aggressors

    International arms dealing doesn’t really lend itself to a homes and family message.

  420. songbird says:
    @sudden death

    Myself interpreted Drac lineage storyline as sort of allegory/comparison about contrast of relatively „young“ American nation and „old“ Japanese civilization

    It probably was, but when I see a conservative theme, it just resonates with me, because of the rarity of those sort of messages.

    [MORE]

    Kind of like the movie Once Were Warriors. I disliked that movie because it is about domestic violence and has other unpleasant plot points. But I feel like it was meant to be a movie to appeal to progressives and does, but, while I dislike many elements of the story, I really liked what I saw as a pro-rootedness message, which some progressive reviewers didn’t even pick up on, when they gave it glowing reviews.

    so my recommendations may be out of date

    I think it is an inevitable corollary to the idea that society is decadent, that the best stuff is not the most recent.

    Roadside Picnic by Strugatsky brothers

    I have read this one, but not the other. Though, I have read The Cyberiad. Parts of it were pretty funny, even in English translation, but I didn’t appreciate what I interpreted as an atheistic message in one the stories.

    My tastes are probably less literary, so you probably wouldn’t share them, but, off the top of my head, the funniest sci-fi story I’ve read is one I’ve plugged before here: The High Crusade by Poul Anderson. It begins with an alien invasion. Instead of the humans being over-awed, the ship lands where a medieval crusade is gathering, and, though they are underdogs, the martial spirit and faith of the medieval Euros wins the day. It’s pretty lighthearted and you’ve got to suspend your disbelief, time and again, but I saw it as promoting vitality, courage, and vigorous action.

  421. utu says:
    @AP

    “You shamelessly claimed, with no evidence, that 1/3 of the crimes committed by Soviet soldiers in Germany were committed by Ukrainians”

    I made a mistake. At that time I did not know that Red Army was 40% Ukrainian in 1945. So now I must revise the 33.3% up to 40%. So now my position is that it is reasonable to assume that 40% of violence against German civilians including rapes and executions of POW’s including the young Volkssturm members was committed by Red Army soldiers of Ukrainian ethnicity. My position is that no reasonable argument exists to think otherwise that cruel and criminal behavior differed among the ethnic groups. My position is that the determining factor was the prevailing institutional culture in the Red Army and permissiveness and even encouragement by officers for such behaviors once the Red Army entered the territory of the III Reich.

    Your argument that “the victims themselves identified Russians or Mongols (i.e., Buryats and Tuvans) as the criminals and rarely mentioned Ukrainians” is just another of your primitive lies that you have just concocted. I do think that any credible study was ever conduced to identify the ethnicity of culprits and estimate their percentages and it is obvious that Germans could not distinguish between ethnic Russians, Belorussians and Ukrainians so even if there was such a study only Asian vs. non-Asian ethnicity could have been resolved. So if indeed Asian ethnic groups were more responsible for atrocities and rapes, which I doubt, it would reduce culpability of Russians, Belorussians and Ukrainians equally.

    The argument about alcohol consumption differences between Russian and Ukrainians even if true does not translates to alcohol consumption differences once in military during a war. The argument is on the level of IQist fanatic from Karlin camp who could claim that lower Ukrainian IQ (citation to IQist literature) would predict higher rate of cruelty and rapes (citation to scientific literature) by Ukrainians.

    “Ukrainians are simply, on average, kinder and gentler people than Russians and have been so historically.” – This could be only an infantile fantasy but since you are not a child but a savvy propagandist this is just another shameless attempt of creating propaganda lie which neither you nor anybody else except for children in kindergartens in Ukraine could possibly believe. I have written about this infantilism (which in your case is not infantilism but a pack of propagandistic lies) before:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-184-russia-ukraine/#comment-5294629
    Yervadian, suggested that this kind of superiority over Russians is a delusion that he cherishes or in other words of Luke from NT: “for of the abundance of his heart his mouth speaketh.” But I have problem believing it that intelligent, educated and not that young person would be still in the grip of “idealized parental imago” that compensates the loss of narcissistic perfection of a child. Parental because idealization formation with respect to one’s ethnic group is of similar nature and usually affect less intelligent, less educated and more primitive people.

    The “kinder and gentler than Russians” people (“and have been so historically”) apparently must occasionally be possessed against their will by Satanic forces when they enthusiastically engage in despicable massacres against Jews and Poles from 17th century to 20th century. The leaders behind those massacres Khmelnytsky and Bandera are national heros of Ukrain. Toying with the Satanic forces and building them altars might not be too prudent.

    The Volhynia and East Galicia massacres during WWII were committed by Western Ukrainians who supposedly drink less and were supposedly more educated or so you would claim than those more Russian Ukrainians in the Eastern Ukraine. It is an interesting fact that the Red Army drafted Volhynians at 60% higher rate than in other regions of Ukraine:

    During 1943–1944, the Red Army recruited, more than 3 million people or 10% of the total population of Ukraine (in the Volyn region, this figure was 16%). – Wiki

    Could somebody ill disposed to Ukrainians propose a counter hypothesis to yours that those Volhynians in Red Army who were still dripping with blood of Poles they murdered and with fresh memories of rapes they committed on Polish women would be more disposed to murder and rape civilians in Germany and that it is them who infected the whole Red Army with the virus of violence and criminality? As a meme this hypothesis could get traction that Ukrainians are especially responsible for atrocities against civilians in Germany. But I am not pushing it because it is just as silly hypothesis w/o zero evidence just as your hypothesis that Ukrainians were behaving better than Russians in Germany for which there zero evidence.

    “And before you lie again and claim I justify this crime ” – I did claim it because I had a recollection of you stating something along the lines that from the POV of Ukraine national interests it was justifiable. However I won’t search for it now among your comments.

    Anyway, I am not happy with you. Not happy at all. I do understand that your function here always was to give resistance to Russia anti-Ukraine lies and propaganda. And this is OK as somebody had do it but in the process you have crossed some lines which is a professional risk for every propagandist. That line is not about your lies. Propagandist always resort to some lies. The line is about your poor judgment and lack of respect for your audience. You have assumed we here are credulous idiots.

  422. Smith says:

    Just happy that my favorite chinese manga is getting a release date for its anime adaptation:

    It looks kino.

  423. Yevardian says:
    @utu

    I would not have phrased myself so bluntly (politesse is often the enemy of truth) though it’s heartening to see someone consistently call a spade a spade. Congratulations for insulting practically everyone here across the whole Zvidomist-to-Putinist spectrum.

    • Thanks: utu
  424. Yevardian says:
    @utu

    I do understand that your function here always was to give resistance to Russia anti-Ukraine lies and propaganda. And this is OK as somebody had do it but in the process you have crossed some lines which is a professional risk for every propagandist. That line is not about your lies. Propagandist always resort to some lies. The line is about your poor judgment and lack of respect for your audience. You have assumed we here are credulous idiots.

    This got me thinking. On some level this would put proper context for the level of mutual respect AK and AP seemed to have always shown each other, even as the former exploded in spiteful rage at his old commentariat few months ago; going even so far to lash out at good-natured old Mr. Hack in his dotage. Like respects like, I suppose.

    • Replies: @utu
    , @A123
    , @Anatoly Karlin
  425. utu says:
    @Yevardian

    (1) AK liked intelligent commenters and AP, iirc, never contested AK’s silly IQist and transhumanist ideas or questioned the accuracy of AK’s predictions which were so dear to AK’s ego and heart, (2) AK was so confident that eventually Russia will crush Ukraine that he considered AP’s and Mr. Hack’s svidomism as mere noises made by flies around’s elephant head which however where cranking up the comment count on his blog and (3) Perhaps AP was making handsome donations.

    • Replies: @AP
  426. Coconuts says:
    @AP

    Good point, I am more familiar with North America. Might a lot of those prole girls in England be the descendants of non-English settlers moving into factory towns? People with that background like the singer Morrissey are often of Irish descent. Not that this makes it better, but it suggests that Anglos themselves are not as harmed by it. The English countryside populated by English people seems to still be very nice.

    Many of the girls apparently were in care, but far from all, there was a memorable podcast interview with an obviously middle class girl who became a victim of one of these gangs. The relevant variable seems to have been the presence of a Pakistani or Bangladeshi community in the area, there have been grooming cases across England, wherever this is the case.

    This issue is suggestive of the ways in which the British elite is not always all that concerned about its population, if it has some other overriding goal to pursue. (I think now it would be wrong to say just the Anglo elite, given the way that growing numbers of non-Anglos are becoming part of it.)

    The question for Ukrainian nationalism would be that one of these overriding goals looks to be establishing universal liberalism or the ‘Republic of Humanity’ thing, under their leadership. In UK media you can see the Ukrainian conflict being seen through this lens. Recall Victor Hugo writing in 1867:

    ‘Goodbye people! Hello Humanity! Suffer your fateful and sublime enlargement, o my fatherland, and, in the same way as Athens became Greece, in the same way as Rome became Christendom, you France will become the world… France has the admirable quality of being destined to die, but to die like a god, by transfiguration.’

    Ukraine, UK, Germany… etc. each could equally be substituted for France within this worldview.

    • Agree: sher singh, songbird
  427. S says:

    Using the corporate mass media to psychologically prepare people for a world war has been done before, ie the 1936 movie Things to Come prior to WWII. World War Z, err III, increasingly would seem no different.

    Putin (like Trump and Zelensky) as controlled opposition has performed in particularly flawless fashion here (as usual) with his overseeing the seemingly peculiar adoption of ‘Z’, a letter that is not even part of the Cyrillic alphabet, to both symbolize Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and to remind people everywhere (even if but subconsciously) just what this act during a time of Coronavirus is intended to do, ie namely set off a world war.

    Below is a description of the 2006 novel World War Z, later in 2013 to be made into a movie by the same name:

    An unnamed British Army general comments as the war ends that there are “enough dead heroes for the end of time.”

    The global pandemic begins around twenty years previously in China, which covers up the outbreak and engineers a military crisis with Taiwan to avoid appearing weak internationally. As a result, the disease becomes known as “African Rabies” when cases in South Africa become widely known. Other than Israel, which institutes a “self-quarantine” and constructs a border wall, most of the world largely ignores the threat for the next year. The United States in particular is depicted as overconfident and distracted by an election year, while a widely marketed placebo vaccine, Phalanx, creates a false sense of security.

    The following spring, a journalist reveals that Phalanx does nothing to prevent zombification, and that the infected are not victims of rabies but rather walking corpses, sparking an event known as the “Great Panic”. Order breaks down around the globe, with rioting, breakdown of essential services, and indiscriminate culling of citizens killing more people than the zombies themselves…

    …Seven years later, after a United Nations conference held off the coast of Hawaii, leading world nations decide to go back on the offensive. New tactics have to be invented for a war of extermination in which every last zombie must be destroyed to avoid reinfection, and casualties are high. An unnamed British Army general comments as the war ends that there are “enough dead heroes for the end of time.”

    • Replies: @S
  428. @Thulean Friend

    controlled by the US
    Exactly, it’s been very well articulated by PRC that it stakes in a pro-EU position and seeks for Europe to upgrade from a “chess piece” to “chess player”.

    What is far less well articulated is that PRC is far more reluctant to let Japan to also upgrade to a “chess player”. But this is consequential as you see from Scholz’s Japan visit that it is clearly meant as snub towards China.

    All sides are being myopic somewhat:
    – The last time Germany was forced to picked a side between China and Japan was 1938, end of Sino-German cooperation. The economic results were not good because Germany’s economy is far more complementary to China’s than Japan’s.

    (Germany does six times more trade with China than Japan; Japan does eight times more trade with China than Germany)
    https://www.worldstopexports.com/japans-top-import-partners/

    – Its good if Germany doesn’t feel that it must take a side again, the relationship between China and Japan is not as horrible as it often sounds. The Japan ruling faction of Kishida’s position is based on anti-Russia rather than anti-China.

    – The Chinese are seething over the German snub and are trolling about Axis 2.0, but not appreciating that Japan’s historical militaristic expansionism was significantly a reaction to Russia/Soviet expansion.

    It isn’t that China doesn’t want to stick their necks out for Russia. Its that no one does free favors for anyone else in geopolitics, period. In the PRC is remembered fondly the Golden Era of Sino-Soviet friendship in 50’s when Soviets provided instrumental help for industrial foundation; but that was not a free favor because it involved massive Chinese casualties in the Korean War, a war instigated by Stalin and Kim.

    You bring up TFR alot, this is a walk through Stockholm and through Shanghai. I think if Chinese had more space to themselves like Swedes they would also have more time to think about “self-actualization” topics like environment, animal rights, and so on. Rather than empty status-striving. So I think China’s pop. can afford to shrink by at least half 😉

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5S3YGXQ85Q

  429. A123 says: • Website
    @sudden death

    Your histrionic ad hominem attack rests on “facts not in evidence”.

    affect ordinary Polish citizens cooking meals in the kitchen

    If you absurdly make this accusation yet close the door on market forces as a whole you must. Prove that the harmed “Kitchen Pole”

        • Was *not* harmed by market forces
        • Was *directly* harmed by Gazprom delivery failure after purchase

    Given that few (more likely no) private kitchens pay for and receive gas directly from Gazprom you have quite the difficult challenge.
    ____

    Even if you could succeed. That does not serve as justification or cover for the Ukranian government’s much more blatant War Crime.

    The Ukrainian government built the Punishment Dam in 2014 to stop 100% of flow in the Crimean Water Canal. This was done to target civilian farmers. As a matter of objective fact there is a direct connection between the Punishment Dam and farm failures.

    I believe there was a feeble attempt to fabricate some sort of justification that ignored 50+ years of historical water flows that did not occur under a water supply contract. The absurdist effort at unilateral creation of a mythical contract was ludicrous. Everybody laughed at the fictional non-contract that was never legitimate.
    _____

    Also note: Poland does not seem terribly agitated by Russia”s actions (1)

    Poland will be independent of Russian gas within half a year thanks to its long-term efforts to secure alternative supplies, the country’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, has announced on a visit to Austria. He called for other countries to do the same in order to “cut oxygen” from Russia’s war against Ukraine.

    The Law and Justice (PiS) government has for years been seeking to end Poland’s reliance on Russian gas. In 2019, it announced that it would halt the permanent import of Russian gas once the current contract with Gazprom expires at the end of this year.

    If Poland does not want Russia gas, why are you so mouth frothingly histrionic about Poland refusing it? Theoretically, Russia would likely win a court case against Poland for breaking the contract.

    You will also recall that I have mentioned the Baltic1 pipeline multiple times (2).

    If anything I am providing “breaking news” about Eastern European energy independence. I keep sharing about the near certainty of much larger Baltic2 project that is still in the concept phase. Potential investors are reputedly chasing the project in excess of the funding requirement. That never happen in the industry.
    ___

    News exclusive to Bulgaria rarely reaches English language media. So, I have no details there. Have you heard that:
       • The Bulgarian import authority paid and then Gazprom refused to deliver?
       • Or, were Bulgarian civilians targeted for collective punishment by the Bulgarian government via some sort of refusal to pay in Rubles scenario?

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/03/10/poland-will-be-independent-from-russian-gas-in-six-months-says-pm/

    (2) https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/baltic-pipe-project/

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  430. Mr. Hack says:
    @A123

    Your feeble attempt to classify Russia’s inability to cement a commercial contract with Ukraine over the procurement of water for its possession in the Crimea, that, let’s be honest, a possession that was due to an illegal land grab in the first place, once again falls on deaf ears. It’s a story that elicits no sympathy from anybody that actually takes the time to delve into the particulars a little bit further than what you’ve been able to do so far. I’m going to copy/paste some information presented by an eminent international lawyer. Oleksii Portnikov, that is quite acquainted with the facts and issues surrounding your monotonous but groundless pleas for human rights issues that just don’t really hold up, taken from the “Blog of the European Journal of International Law”:

    In all those cases the Court concluded that a violation of Article 8 may occur if a state fails to comply with its positive obligation to ensure access to drinking water…Importantly, the issue here revolves exactly around positive obligations.Water does not flow naturally into Crimea, and the Canal is an artificial hydraulic structure, which requires human labour to operate. It cannot be compared to a river, but rather (similarly to Hudorovic), to a water pipeline. This pipeline provided water to consumers under the commercial contracts. After Russia took control over the Canal facilities in Crimea, it never officially proposed Ukraine to negotiate a contract on renewal of water supply. Thus, water could not reach the consumers if Ukraine acted negatively (in other words, simply did nothing)… the Court may experience difficulties in establishing the law of which state applies in the case. If it does find, that it is the law of Ukraine, the latter is likely to claim that the closure of the Canal resulted from a commercial dispute and an outstanding debt. As for legitimate aim, here Ukraine is likely to refer to the situation of an armed conflict threatening the life of the nation and the legitimate aim of protection of sovereignty. ..Two days following the submission, the ECtHR dismissed the Russian Rule 39 request asking to order Ukraine “to suspend the blockade of the North Crimean Canal”. As of now, the Court does not see a risk of irreparable harm of a core right under the Convention. Russia failed to obtain an immediate solution of the water crisis.

    https://www.ejiltalk.org/the-proceedings-flow-while-water-does-not-russias-claims-concerning-the-north-crimean-canal-in-strasbourg/

    According to your very unsophisticated current arguments and standards, perhaps we need to consider the court at Strasbourg all a bunch of mental retards for coming to these conclusions, opposite to your own?

    • Agree: sudden death
  431. S says:
    @S

    As mentioned, film has been used before to psychologically prep people in advance to embrace a world war.

    There were three Anglo-American movies (that I know of, there were probably more, see links below) which years in advance declared WWII would specifically start in the year 1940. Each of these films, to entice viewership, featured a lot of then high-tech such as television and vid-phones, etc, so that people would pay and come see about the future world war, which in two of the films clearly involves Germany.

    The films were High Treason (1929), Men Must Fight (1933), and Things to Come (1936).

    All these films can be seen free on YouTube (or elsewhere) on the net.

    High Treason, bearing in mind it was 1929 (after all) is of a particular interest.

    The aerial attack upon New York City in Men Must Fight (1933)

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Treason_(1929_British_film)

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men_Must_Fight

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Things_to_Come

    • Replies: @sudden death
  432. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Apparently the argument at the top that the world has to be depopulated is the planet cannot support a prosperous billion chinamen, ergo nine tenths of everybody has got to go. Equitably distribute the pain.

    The private jets get to stay of course. Let’s not get carried away.

  433. Beckow says:
    @utu

    I asked you this before and you never replied: why shouldn’t men from a country where Germans murdered 10 million civilians in turn kill the perpetrators and mistreat their families in Germany who sat at home and cheered it on?

    What is amazing is that Germans were mostly spared after the war. That shows an incredible “kindness and gentleness“, something missing among Germans in WWII. It is probably still the same just lurking under the surface, see the SS grandkids in the German government starting another self-defeating attack on he east.

    Until you address that and tell us why Germans could do it first, but others shouldn’t do it to them later, your writing is only an elaborate distraction. Or what you call “propaganda” with AP.

    AP is misguided: brutality is found in all ethnic groups in a war with smaller differences among groups than within a group. The drinking part must be a joke: nobody outdrinks a Galician (or a Pole). Still the core issue is that you pretend that nothing before 1944 matters. The treatment of Germans in 1944-47 was a justified retribution. Read the Bible, evil has to be confronted, then and now.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @German_reader
  434. AP says:
    @utu

    (1) I agree with AK on IQ mostly (in terms of effects but not in terms of moral judgment of peoples worth), but have no interest in debating in this topic. I have almost no interest in science fiction and transhumanism seems like that to me. So I don’t discuss that either. Too boring for me to learn about it or to really debate it.

    (3) I treated him at a cafe in Moscow once, he would not be swayed by such a trifle (or by more, he doesn’t strike me as being motivated by financial interests in terms of his ideals)

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  435. Mikel says:
    @Barbarossa

    perhaps I’m misunderstanding what you meant

    Yes, sorry. Bad choice of words. I meant to say that more than a paranormal phenomenon, dowsing looks like an ability for which still some scientific controversy can be found. In fact, after that previous test with a dowser this skeptic group wrote in their conclusions that they hadn’t proven that dowsing is impossible, just that this person hadn’t been able to show such an ability. But according to Wikipedia, the subject has been quite thoroughly researched and the conventional wisdom is that it lacks scientific merit.

    I think there is a great deal of discontent with the disconnect from the natural world, but that many people don’t really have a true desire to actually experience the unvarnished natural world.

    That’s probably what this well established market with hobby-like prices reveals. There’s a huge number of people trying, in one way or another, to lead a more “natural” life so perhaps we are all not as materialistic in this society as AaronB thinks but, at the same time, most of us are not willing to abandon the pursuit of material wealth so can they afford to charge silly prices that often defeat the purpose. Along with the linseed, I bought 16 oz of chickpea seeds for \$6. I could possibly buy as many chickpeas at a bulk store as what I’m going to harvest for that price but it’s not a popular garden crop in this area so I’m out of luck. I cannot find these seeds at the big box or the local gardening stores so I am prey to the back-to-earth marketeers. Store-bought chickpeas don’t germinate btw. For some reason they are all radiated, even the “organic” ones.

    Unfortunately, local farmers are usually not so helpful with this kind of matters. There are many crops that are possible in this area in a small scale, non commercial way, such as soy, asparagus or, if you’re lucky with the frost dates, even peanuts and some hybrid types of rice. But they’re very skeptic about anything that is non-traditional. Many of them also seem to have fallen prey to Tractor Supply and similar stores.

    I guess that there are two somewhat opposing attitudes one can take with the discontent that you mention. One is that life is too short and you shouldn’t deprive yourself of the benefits of modern life while you also take delight in the joys of contact with nature. The other is that precisely because life is short and ultimately purposeless, one should find spiritual meaning in a life of permanent contact with nature, as we evolved to live before the advent of modernity. All things considered, I think I gravitate toward the former attitude these days.

  436. A123 says: • Website
    @Yevardian

    On some level this would put proper context for the level of mutual respect AK and AP seemed to have always shown each other,

    If AP was not burdened by pro-violence Ukranians he might be able to make a decent case for his side. I believe he concurs with my point, both national command authorities have an issue with small units and individuals committing unsanctioned acts. For example, violence against POW’s

    AP’s problem is that the Ukie Maximalists have so hardened the sides with their irrational hate, it is very hard to get thru with a nuanced message. They keep trying to smear me as pro-Putin, when my actual position is that both nations were manipulated into this fight by outside forces.

    even as [AK] exploded in spiteful rage at his old commentariat few months ago

    The volume of irrational, Ukie Maximalist posting surged, so at some level I under his frustration. The reemergence of various GerardBots exacerbated an already unpleasant situation.

    This should be the place to rationally examine the current situation that is going badly for Russia and even worse for Ukraine. Instead anything that does not conform to Ukie Maximalist dogma receives rage posting. They desperately want Cancel Culture to suppress anything that is not 100% pro-Ukie and are very agitated about free speech.

    lash out at good-natured old Mr. Hack in his dotage.

    I certainly do not want to lash out the mentally ill Mr. Hack. He is the only person on my blocked commenters list placed there out if compassion. I do not want to be the one to push him over the edge into self harm. He really needs psychiatric intervention, but that is something that I cannot arrange.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  437. AP says:
    @Beckow

    The drinking part must be a joke: nobody outdrinks a Galician (or a Pole)

    Poles and Galicians may outdrink Slovaks but they can’t be compared to Russians. I knew a Galician engineer who worked in Siberia and he was shocked at how much Russians drink. An uncle for around Kiev did military service in central Russia and was likewise amazed. It’s a different level.

    Data match these anecdotes:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_alcohol_consumption_per_capita

    Poles slightly less alcohol consumers than Russians (Slovaks beat both) but this is because of beer culture in Poland, Russians get there with vodka or homemade hard liquor. Ukraine which lacks beer culture had 1/4 the ETOH consumption rate of Russia n 1996, still 20% in 2016 (Ukrainian consumers discovered beer and wine more).

    Shots of vodka per month:

    https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-who-consume-the-most-vodka.html

    Russia at number one with 17.3, Poland in second place with 13.7, Ukrainians in third place with 10. Then Bulgaria 5.3 and Slovakia 4.1. Finland, the champion of Scandinavia, is only in 8th place with 3.2.

    So Russians on average drink about twice as much vodka as do Ukrainians.

    Difference in drinking severity is a divider between Russians and Ukrainians, as anyone who has spent time in both countries would know. People who claim there is no difference are just demonstrating ignorance.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    , @Yevardian
  438. Abrupt chaos ensuing as targets and motives for “denazification” are widening 😉

    JERUSALEM, May 2 (Reuters) – Israel lambasted Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday for claiming that Adolf Hitler had Jewish origins, saying it was an “unforgivable” falsehood that debased the horrors of the Nazi Holocaust.

    In a signal of sharply deteriorating relations with Moscow, the Israeli foreign ministry summoned the Russian ambassador and demanded an apology.

    “Such lies are intended to accuse the Jews themselves of the most horrific crimes in history that were committed against them,” Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said in a statement.

    “The use of the Holocaust of the Jewish people for political purposes must stop immediately,” he added.

    Lavrov made the assertion on Italian television on Sunday when he was asked why Russia said it needed to “denazify” Ukraine if the country’s own president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, was himself Jewish.

    “When they say ‘What sort of nazification is this if we are Jews’, well I think that Hitler also had Jewish origins, so it means nothing,” Lavrov told Rete 4 channel, speaking through an Italian interpreter.

    “For a long time now we’ve been hearing the wise Jewish people say that the biggest anti-Semites are the Jews themselves,” he added.

    Dani Dayan, chairman of Yad Vashem, Israel’s memorial to the six million Jews killed in the Holocaust, said the Russian minister’s remarks were “an insult and a severe blow to the victims of the real Nazism”.

    Speaking on Kan radio, Dayan said Lavrov was spreading “an anti-Semitic conspiracy theory with no basis in fact”.

    The identity of one of Hitler’s grandfathers is not known but there has been some speculation, never backed up by any evidence, that he might have been a Jew.

    There was no immediate response for comment from the Russian embassy to Israel or from Lavrov in Moscow.

    Kyiv condemned Lavrov’s words, saying his “heinous remarks” were offensive to Zelenskiy, to Israel, Ukraine and Jews.

    “More broadly, they demonstrate that today’s Russia is full of hatred towards other nations,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Twitter.

    Israeli Foreign Ministry Yair Lapid, whose grandfather died in the Holocaust, said that accusing Jews of being anti-Semites was “the basest level of racism”. He also dismissed Lavrov’s assertion that pro-Nazi elements held sway over the Ukrainian government and military.

    “The Ukrainians aren’t Nazis. Only the Nazis were Nazis and only they dealt with the systematic destruction of the Jewish people,” Lapid told the YNet news website.

    A German government spokesperson said the idea Hitler had Jewish heritage was “absurd” propaganda. read more

    Israel has expressed repeated support for Ukraine following the Russian invasion in February. But wary of straining relations with Russia, a powerbroker in neighbouring Syria, it initially avoided direct criticism of Moscow and has not enforced formal sanctions on Russian oligarchs.

    However, relations have grown more strained, with Lapid last month accusing Russia of committing war crimes in Ukraine.

    However, the Ukrainian president has also run into flak in Israel by looking to draw analogies between the conflict in his country and World War Two. In an address to the Israeli parliament in March, Zelenskiy compared the Russian offensive in Ukraine to Nazi Germany’s plan to murder all Jews within its reach during World War Two. read more

    Yad Vashem called his comments “irresponsible,” saying they trivialised the historical facts of the Holocaust.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-denounces-lavrovs-hitler-comments-summons-russian-ambassador-2022-05-02/?utm_source=reddit.com

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • LOL: Thulean Friend
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    , @Mikhail
  439. Beckow says:
    @AP

    Take the statistics with a grain of salt. They are based on surveys and reported sales that are unreliable especially with personal stuff like drinking, dating, religion, etc… In Slovakia it is impacted by reporting by pubs and restaurants that has a lot to do with how we tax consumption. It is beneficial to report large sales of drinks as an expense write-off – drinks are easily diluted with water, food is not. There are similar local tweaks around the world. In my personal experience nobody drinks as much as the Irish.

    You extrapolated from your questionable drinking assumption that civilian abuse-rape-murder had to be higher among the more drunk group. That wasn’t the case at all in WWII: the most murderous group by far were the sober Germans. Mass murders were not done by drunks, they were methodically organized by sober Germans and their allies. Germans would not tolerate drunks among the allies – lack of discipline was dangerous.

    The same with the Red Army: drinking was not the issue, the thirst for revenge was. Some units were allowed to go wild, others were punished – it depended on the officers. In any case, the atrocities by Germans were one or two orders of magnitude worse than atrocities against Germans. All else is an attempt to distract – utu does that since he has no arguments: a sad old loser with deep hatreds that he can no longer keep on the inside.

    • Replies: @AP
  440. @S

    Even more – just think how thoroughly those cunning filmakers have been preparing us all for coming space alien invasions or comet/asteroid strikes, so the coming world war might not even be the worst possible choice 😉

    • LOL: S
    • Replies: @Mikel
  441. Mr. Hack says:
    @A123

    You’re the one lashing out at everybody at this site as being “mentally ill” that doesn’t agree with some of your more outlandish points of view. Your inability to directly address views that counter your own in an honest manner, make you a Coward.

  442. AP says:
    @Beckow

    You extrapolated from your questionable drinking assumption that civilian abuse-rape-murder had to be higher among the more drunk group. That wasn’t the case at all in WWII: the most murderous group by far were the sober Germans

    Correct but German violence against civilians was different from Russian (and Buryat/Tuvan) violence against civilians. Germans were mass shooting them or gassing them in organized operations as part of state policy. Russians et al were raping or gang raping and looting in a fairly unorganized way, the state looked the other way or winked at their activities but didn’t organize them.

    More importantly, the witnesses described the Soviet rapists as typically being drunk so different levels of drinking are relevant when trying to determine whether they were more likely to be Russians or Ukrainians.

    • Replies: @AP
  443. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    You bring up TFR alot, this is a walk through Stockholm and through Shanghai. I think if Chinese had more space to themselves like Swedes they would also have more time to think about “self-actualization” topics like environment, animal rights, and so on. Rather than empty status-striving. So I think China’s pop. can afford to shrink by at least half

    I’ve been pretty clear in my predictions on China’s future that I expect Beijing to achieve full spectrum “self-mastery” in all critical technologies – though I warn that the process will be more grinding and drawn-out than many Han nationalists may imagine it to be.

    A China at half its current population size, or frankly even a third, will still be unassailable. Moreover, it’s important to understand something about demographics… it isn’t just about quantity, but perhaps more so about quality.

    Steve Hsu wrote up a very good piece on this distinction last year and I encourage you to read it. The TL;DR is that even by conservative estimates, China will have about 2X the amount of math top-performers compared to the entire OECD, the main competition. Math is the queen of sciences as we know, and it is the foundation for any innovative capability. So, China can sleep easy.

    That said, a multitude of other reasons, which I won’t lay out now in the interest of brevity, will get in the way of allowing China to surpass the US GDP by 2X or more, which is what is required for China to replace the US as the dominant global hegemon. My contention is that America’s power cannot only be measured by its own GDP but you have to add its puppets to the sum total.

    As I’ve argued tirelessly on numerous occasions, I’m not convinced that China even wants the burden of becoming the global hegemon,with all that such a function would entail. It just seems to be a mordant fear among D.C. policy circles. I suspect China will be perfectly happy to merely dominate their littoral and near abroad, combined with technological self-sufficiency. If those conditions are achieved, I’m far from convinced that Beijing would want much more. Maybe you disagree.

  444. AP says:
    @AP

    More importantly, the witnesses described the Soviet rapists as typically being drunk so different levels of drinking are relevant when trying to determine whether they were more likely to be Russians or Ukrainians.

    I missed the edit window. I tried to add that drunkenness not only served to differentiate Russians from Ukrainians but also appears as a risk factor for violence with respect to the unorganized “random” nature of violence perpetrated upon German civilians by Soviet troops. Drunk disinhibited people were more likely to do this stuff and Russians were and are more likely to get drunk, disinhibited and violent than are Ukrainians.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  445. Mr. Hack says:
    @AP

    he doesn’t strike me as being motivated by financial interests in terms of his ideals)

    I would have thought just the opposite of him. He liked to brag about how successful he was at playing the bit coin market, sort of intimating that his high IQ was responsible for his relaxed lifestyle. I could, of course be wrong about this. There were a number of character traits that he possessed that I liked. He could show kindness at times by taking the time to explain some concepts in more detail. He was rather laisse faire about allowing dissenting opinions to appear within this blogsite. I think that this war has unhinged him some, bringing out the attempted censorship that he exhibited towards the end of his tenure here. Of course, I loved his usage of sarcasm and abilities to troll somebody in a very effective manner. He must have appreciated me, at least at one time. On at least one occasion he invited me to look him up if ever in Moscow. I was actually looking forward to visiting Moscow, hearing that it was a perfectly great metropolis to visit.

  446. S says:

    As they seem to be copying (in detail) the events leading up to WWII in preparation for WWIII, it might be useful to study some of those past pre WWII details.

    One such detail was the establishment in 1940 of the covert British Security Co-ordination (BSC) agency intended to influence US public opinion in favor of Britain and encourage US entry into the war.

    BSC HQ Location in NY City During WWII

    ‘As a ‘huge secret agency of nationwide news manipulation and black propaganda’, the BSC influenced news coverage in the Herald Tribune, the New York Post, The Baltimore Sun, and Radio New York Worldwide.’

    British Security Co-ordination (BSC) was a covert organisation set up in New York City by the British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) in May 1940 upon the authorisation of the Prime Minister, Winston Churchill.

    Its purpose was to investigate enemy activities, prevent sabotage against British interests in the Americas, and mobilise pro-British opinion in the Americas. As a ‘huge secret agency of nationwide news manipulation and black propaganda’, the BSC influenced news coverage in the Herald Tribune, the New York Post, The Baltimore Sun, and Radio New York Worldwide. The stories disseminated from the organisation’s offices at Rockefeller Center would then be legitimately picked up by other radio stations and newspapers, before being relayed to the American public. Through this, anti-German stories were placed in major American media outlets to help turn public opinion.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Security_Co-ordination

    • Thanks: Mikel
  447. Beckow says:
    @AP

    I still don’t buy it, drinking was only one of many factors – one can argue that the thirst for revenge was higher among Ukrainians and Belorussians since their civilians were occupied longer and suffered more. Or that in some eastern cultures the concept of “surrender” doesn’t exist, e.g. among Buryats.

    A lot of this is based on anecdotal data that varies from place to place. In Slovakia by far the worst were Galicians who came as German allies in summer 1944 to clear countryside of partisans. Horrible abuse, but no particular reports of drinking. Then in 1945-47 we had Bandera groups that were trying to fight their way across Czecho-Slovakia to escape to Germany – more people from that generation fought “Banderovci” after WWII then fought in WWII. This is a deep well known memory that impacts how we see Ukrainian nationalism – Bandera bands routinely burnt villages and murdered civilians. The same happened in Poland with similar memories.

    Red Army is remembered as massive, chaotic, friendly, sacrificing a lot as the Germans tried to turn Bohemia into a fortress. The main abuse by Red Army was taking watches and nurses trying to marry any man so they could stay. We also had Romanians who switched sides in 1944 and were accompanying the Red Army, they are remembered for not having weapons or shoes and being hungry, so they stole or begged.

    What Germans did till the very end, killing people randomly and unnecessary as they retreated from a town, nobody else did. That was a unique evil and was done by regular Germans willingly. It is in their DNA, or maybe the Western DNA in general – see what they advised the Ukies to do in Mariupol, the same mindless brutality against civilians, destruction, with no purpose but spite and hatred.

  448. German_reader says:
    @Beckow

    It is probably still the same just lurking under the surface, see the SS grandkids in the German government

    Is that a reference to this bs photomontage showing Scholz and other German politicians together with vaguely similar looking SS members (with vaguely similar names, like “von Scholz” instead of Scholz)?
    Do you really have to believe even the dumbest Russian propaganda? Doesn’t speak well of your critical faculties.

    • LOL: Thulean Friend
    • Replies: @Beckow
    , @Barbarossa
  449. Dmitry says:
    @utu

    videos yourself first and give us specific examples of “obstacles

    Those are high quality YouTube channels which explained the situation better. There is no troll to use those channels.

    Problem with Germany giving Marder is explained.
    https://youtu.be/F3c385d5NU0?t=616.

    Problem with Germany giving “Gepard” self-propelled anti-aircraft guns.
    https://youtu.be/F3c385d5NU0?t=789.

    Panzerhaubitze 2000 will be not suitable for maintaining or moving,
    https://youtu.be/F_DS6UvZXPo?t=674.

    Problems maintaining Leopard 1 tank (which has very weak armor, etc).
    https://youtu.be/SYZfvi0Ab78?t=924.

    Adjusting to these heavy weapons systems is usually something that requires months or years.

    (200 tanks from Poland

    They are 200 T-72 M from storage. Even in 1979, they have downgraded armor compared to the non-export model used by the Soviet army.

    If you were in Ukrainian military, you might be considering whether soldiers would be more effective and safe outside than inside such tanks.

    from the US, the UK and Poland

    US, UK and Turkey are giving battle changing equipment from the Ukrainian point of view, but probably not Poland (at least those T-72 M).

    It is mainly not heavy equipment. Bayraktar TB2 is successful because it is so miniturized so difficult for radar and cheap, disposable product.

    America is going to train 20 Ukrainian soldiers this week with the Phoenix Ghost drone.
    https://twitter.com/beverstine/status/1521161337262551041. These are the kind of equipment which are scary and there is no technological answer in the Russian military.

    the US did not plan nor wanted to have confrontation with Russia in Ukraine though when they realized what Putin

    Obama, Trump and Biden, did not want America to increase its spending in Europe, and consider (correctly) Russia is not a rival for the USA, except in terms of its legacy inheritance of nuclear weapons.

    Ukraine’s army is therefore extremely weak, lacking almost any modern equipment, with 0 navy and almost 0 airforce.

    However, because Ukraine’s military is so weak, this created an extreme perceived unbalance of power between Russia and Ukraine. We see now retrospectively, that this lack of balance of power between Russia and Ukraine, has increased probability of invasion of Ukraine, almost like a trap for Putin.

    Too much lack of balance, but can be more dangerous, than the balance of power.

    I wonder what historical counterfactual would be if there were American presidents, John McCain (who still believed Russia was a rival of the USA, as a Cold Warrior), or Marco Rubio (who is just very aggressive geopolitically). They would have established in Ukraine, Patriot missiles, Abrams tanks and F-15 and F-16 planes. This would create more balance of power, as a result counter-intuitively perhaps there would be not this war now.

    China to that to Russia. They realized that Putin has created them exceptional opportunity of teaching China

    I think it’s all too much non-matched comparison, to be useful.

    Firstly, China cannot compare their economic situation to Russia. Although there are still memories of the great USSR and inheritance of nuclear weapons and strategic delivery systems, today Russia’s total economy size is similar to Spain, but shared with over three times more people, based in raw materials, and with less industrial base and technology level than Spain or Italy.

    China, on the other hand, is a very fast rising power (although its speed of development will be slow in the middle income trap), with real attempts for modernization, industry and technology. Rival Taiwan, but also potentially Japan, India, USA. China’s rise is not based in raw material prices, but in industrialization. China’s economic structure is more comparable to Turkey, while Russia more like Saudi Arabia. That’s to say, China might become a significant rival for America, and this is what Obama, Trump and Biden have been worried about.

    Secondly, Ukraine should have been easy intrinsically to invade, while Taiwan would be somewhere on the opposite scale, probably more like suicide operations. https://www.neweurope.eu/article/why-china-cannot-invade-taiwan/ Therefore, China would not likely be irrational enough to fall to such a trap, unless Xi Jinping would develop alzheimer’s disease. But China has some extent of collective leadership and their leader perhaps can’t make such irrational or irresponsible decisions.

  450. songbird says:

    I wonder if Éamon de Valera could be considered an early version of Leo Varadkar.

    Obviously, very loose analogy. De Valera was not gay, not a PoC, and was a nationalist. In many ways, the comparison would be considered an insult, and probably cause de Valera to turn in his grave.

    But there are certain similarities. Both had a father born outside of Ireland. Though, I doubt Varadkar is even half Irish. Did de Valera became a consensus candidate based on his foreign-sounding name? Just like Varadkar was chosen by inner-party politics.

    • Replies: @S
  451. German_reader says:
    @utu

    Germany and France as relatively large military powers

    Germany isn’t a “large military power”, its military is a run-down joke, with only a fraction of its nominal strength being operational at any time and tanks and other vehicles being cannibalized for spare parts. Definitely not in the same league as France.
    And besides political factors, this is also another reason why the demands of the Ukrainian ambassador (who basically wants Germany to just hand over much of its useable tanks and artillery) are surreal. If these demands would be met to their full extent, the German army wouldn’t have much materiel left.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @utu
  452. Beckow says:
    @German_reader

    Not sure about Scholz, I was thinking Ursula who is supposedly a grand-daughter of an SS officer. I know, “show us proof!!!” – suddenly evidence standards become very high, but when it comes to what you like any rumor or allegation by one side suffices. That is a problem.

    There must statistically be numerous Nazi offspring in the German establishment – it is simple math. If you want a specific person, just ask them – I am sure they will voluntarily tell us. This incredible level of “proof” demand in a situation where it is mathematically impossible for many members of the German government-Parliament not to be grandkids of Nazis is very amusing. You think we have to live in your world.

    On to Moscow!!!! this time with global warming it may work better.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
  453. S says:

    A friendly PSA and cautionary note from Orwell to watch our own actions closely…


    2+2=5

    Part 3, Chapter 6 – 1984

    Almost unconsciously he traced with his finger in the dust on the table:

    2+2=5

    ‘They can’t get inside you,’ she had said. But they could get inside you. ‘What happens to you here is for ever,’ O’Brien had said. That was a true word. There were things, your own acts, from which you could never recover. Something was killed in your breast: burnt out, cauterized out.

    http://www.george-orwell.org/1984/22.html

  454. @Beckow

    The Nazis in Germany are not a problem.

    The Nazis in Tel Aviv and Washington and New York and London and Basel and Brussels are a problem.

  455. Dmitry says:
    @German_reader

    Yes Germany has a very low funded military*, but one of the world’s largest military export industries. Part of the debt crisis with Greece and Portugal, also related to buying Germany military equipment (Greece has to cancel a lot of orders finally).

    For example, Germany is building for both sides of the Greece/Turkey navy arms race, making the same submarines for each side. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Hellenic_Navy_ships
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_ships_of_the_Turkish_Naval_Forces

    * There was interesting discussion in the last section of the video https://youtu.be/F3c385d5NU0?t=1300.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  456. German_reader says:
    @Dmitry

    For example, Germany is building for both sides of the Greece/Turkey navy arms race

    Yeah, that’s pretty cynical and wrong. I would only sell to Greece.
    Don’t have much to add, since I don’t know that much about weapons systems and their details. Found this article interesting though:
    https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/supporting-ukraine-for-the-long-war-2/
    They call for a coordinated effort to supply Ukraine with a few types, so issues with spare parts and logistics are minimized. Also suggestions that Ukraine could get MiGs from Egypt.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  457. @Triteleia Laxa

    Russia is now in the East where they were in the North in mid-March.

    Meanwhile, they are already in full retreat from Kharkhiv to their own border.

    And Western artillery is not online yet. It outranges Russian artillery and should be finally deployed in the East perhaps tomorrow.

    Russian casualties and defeats are about to skyrocket. Their only option is to withdraw. Even a tactical nuke won’t save them. Its use would sever even China’s tepid friendship. And the West would be forced to escalate to de-escalate itself. Any other response would legitimise the use of nuclear weapons in the 21st Century. I suggest they would be best served by telling Russia that they would bomb every Russian asset within the sovereign borders of Ukraine in 48 hours for 2 weeks as retaliation. There is no response that Russia could have, that they would not have already sunk to. It would be check mate and would force their immediate withdrawal, but in total disgrace.

    Much more sensible they just leave now. Or desperately try and sign a deal for the pre-war borders via referendum. They can probably forget about “no NATO’ though. For the Ukrainians to agree, their mercy would have to be astonishing.

    • Agree: Johann Ricke
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @Mr. Hack
  458. Mikel says:
    @sudden death

    space alien invasions or comet/asteroid strikes, so the coming world war might not even be the worst possible choice

    Of all the readily available choices with a growing level of support from the public and politicians (see eg Kizinger’s proposal), it definitely is the worst one.

    AK probably doesn’t realize how unattractive his triunist crusade is for anyone who is not Russian or Russian-adjacent. But reading some comments here I have the impression that Ukrainians and pro-Ukrainians may have a similar problem. They don’t seem to realize how disgusting the pro-Ukrainian propaganda in the MSM also is for many of us.

    As an example, the day of the first civilian evacuations from Azovstal the BBC’s headline for their worldwide audience was that ‘some civilians had managed to escape, in spite of Putin declaring that not one fly would get out’. You had to go well into the body of the article to discover that those civilians were actually in Russian hands (in fact, I remember that Putin himself had offered them to evacuate unharmed in his speech).

    Any reader with a short attention span would easily conclude that the Russians had been trying to kill those civilians, that the Azov soldiers that share their last holdout with civilians do so to protect them and that some innocent people had somehow escaped from the Russians.

    The end effect of this sort of reporting, whether purposeful or not, is that more and more people see this war as a conflict between absolute evil against innocent virtuosity and that “we must do something” to stop the Russians, even if we have to sacrifice ourselves.

    The Russians, along with murderous shelling of civilian areas, have certainly shown poor strategy and serious limitations in their conventional forces but their cruise and ballistic missiles are functioning with great precision, contrary to some expectations. I remember how a few years ago, when they first used their Kalibr missiles in Syria, the Pentagon doubted that they could reach their targets. I see zero reason to expect that the Russian nuclear missiles will not work as intended and that they will not use them if pushed against a corner.

    • Agree: A123
    • Replies: @A123
    , @Triteleia Laxa
  459. that they will not use them if pushed against a corner

    How can they be pushed to the corner if all that we constantly keep hearing from them at the highest level about operation is it going strictly according to plan with previously set timetables and objectives will be reached? There is no corner, they are faring just fine as intended 😉

  460. Dmitry says:
    @utu

    AP just matched a forum culture here, where most people seemed obsessed about essentialist views about nationalities, often as way to boost their ego by attaching themselves to these labels.

    You will not not receive “agree” for comments, here if you explain that this model doesn’t explain history, or that you want to understand North/South Korea.

    AP and JackD are similar, not as “propagandists”, but because they are successful American paterfamilias, from the same political culture of North-Eastern bourgeoisie, both with a lot of amour-propre.

    At the same time, their amour-propre is attached persecuted nationalities, with unstable self-determination. They are also in forum with a lot of Jewish conspiracy (for JackD) and kremlinbot (for AP) users, which for some strange reason they feel they need to argue with.

    AP himself has adopted a lot of kremlinbot frameworks, which creates a lot of the cultural dissonance compared to talking to Ukrainian netizens. Whereas JackD’s real cultural similarity to the Sailer forum, is genuine, that he is racist against African Americans.

  461. A123 says: • Website
    @Mikel

    They don’t seem to realize how disgusting the pro-Ukrainian propaganda in the MSM also is for many of us.

    And how disgusting the pro-Ukrainian propaganda posted here is to us. The hypocrisy from the Ukie Maximalists is a guaranteed losing proposition hut they do it anyway.

    A few pro-Ukraine posters, like AP, likely see the problem. However, there is little they can do about it.

    their cruise and ballistic missiles are functioning with great precision, contrary to some expectations.

    The problem is quantity. Russia is consuming far faster than they can manufacture and replace. The primary reason why RF has not ended fright rail in Ukraine is they cannot. They simply do not have enough precision long range firepower to achieve that goal.

    The RF retains heavy reliance on “tubes” (a.k.a. artillery). It’s messy, but it can work if they are willing to grind the target in a less precise and closer range manner.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  462. Dmitry says:
    @German_reader

    Germany’s policy was cynical, but seems rational from a point of view of self-interest of the local industrialists and workers they employ, while also allowing for less public expenditure in this area for the taxpayers.

    If Germany was implausibly, feeling threat of landwar from Russia. Well, you can always sell more weapons to Poland. And there are American bases there.

    So, why does Germany, need a land army?

    At the same time, Germany has a quite modernized aerial force, that would probably exceed any local threat (e.g. Russia), even without help from Poland (that is buying the most advanced F-16). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Air_Force#Current_inventory

    • Replies: @Sean
  463. German_reader says:

    Projection (from 2019) how a nuclear war between NATO and Russia could play out:

    • Replies: @A123
    , @songbird
  464. @German_reader

    It’s really amusing how everyone is accused of being the true Nazi now. We should all just embrace our fate as being labeled as “Literal Hitler” at some point by someone.

    Really it’s almost a slight to not be called a Nazi or Literal Hitler. Any person of consequence should strive for it, I guess, so that they know they have really made it in life.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    , @A123
  465. Mr. Hack says:
    @A123

    And how disgusting the pro-Ukrainian propaganda posted here is to us. The hypocrisy from the Ukie Maximalists is a guaranteed losing proposition hut they do it anyway.

    Yeah, like my own postings here showing how spurious your stances are regarding the water issue disputes between Russia and Ukraine within Crimea. That my own opinions line up very closely with those of European courts that have looked into these matters, and have found no evidence of any unfair play, seems to mean nothing to an airhead like you that only seems concerned with your own opinions, and resorts to ad hominins when confronting commenters that post opinions that differ from your own. Oh “boo hoo, how disgusting”.

  466. German_reader says:
    @Barbarossa

    Technically Beckow is of course correct, NSDAP had 8 million members by 1945 (including relatives of mine), so any German government is likely to contain “Nazi offspring”.
    Pretty ridiculous though to claim that Scholz and his like have an SS mentality, imo Beckow is just once again spouting recycled Soviet propaganda where Nazi Germany and NATO are somehow almost the same thing. No use arguing against that.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
  467. @Mikel

    I don’t mean this unkindly, but are you perhaps somewhat autistic? As in generally diagnosable with some level of autism?

    You seem to be able to recognise facts, but not really understand why other people assign different levels of importance to them. As if everything true is of equal criticality.

    This also seems to apply conversely, with lies, for you. You find lies outrageous and take them personally, regardless of the context or what the liar is contending with. As if the mere fact of a lie is a threat to your existence.

    I don’t know exactly what word to use to describe this characteristic of yours, which is why I mentioned “autism,” but perhaps you yourself have some insight on this?

    You see, for the vast majority of people, the vast majority of lies are tiny and irrelevant “sins” often born of necessity, and there are much worse things people do.

    Indeed, much of becoming an adult is learning to lie and be fake and to have a mask. Not in your most intimate relationships, and hopefully never to yourself, but lying is essential and so certainly not a sin in its essence.

    In fact, most people who perform outrage over it are lying themselves, or self-deceiving, but it seems that you’re not. That makes you atypical.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    , @Mikel
  468. German_reader says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Why are you always resorting to psychobabble? It’s irritating and just taking up space, not contributing anything interesting.
    Mikel is afraid of nuclear war, and that fear is totally legitimate. The real question is, why do so many people nowadays (in stark contrast to the Cold War era) feel the need to pretend that there is no reason to be afraid and that the risk of nuclear war is no big deal and shouldn’t factor into one’s calculations?

    • Agree: Yevardian, Mikel, A123
    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    , @songbird
  469. @German_reader

    There is a wonderful-in-spots book by Joseph Farrell where he compares the EU vision statement (~ 2013 or so–it was up-to-date when he wrote the book) with the 1942 German plan for Europe point-by-point. There is virtually no difference.

  470. Mikel says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    … most people who perform outrage over it are lying themselves, or self-deceiving, but it seems that you’re not. That makes you atypical…

    Well, perhaps sudden_death is right and there are worse things than nuclear war per se. Such as ending up sharing a nuclear refuge with you in its aftermath.

    • LOL: