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Open Thread 183: Russia/Ukraine
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The previous Open Thread is well over 900 comments and apparently getting a little sluggish, so here’s a new one for the Karlin Community.

— Ron Unz

 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: Open Thread, Russia, Ukraine 
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  1. A123 says: • Website

    Eight helpful tips on how to beat the Fake Stream Media at home & abroad. #2 and #3 are particularly notable: (1)

    2. Don’t Call Media ‘Mainstream,’ Call Them What They Are

    The more partisan the big names in media like The New York Times, The Washington Post, CNN, MSNBC, and their ilk become, the more inaccurate it is to call them “mainstream.” Call them the corporate media, the propaganda press, legacy media, or use DeSantis’ nickname for them: “smear merchants.”

    3. You Catch More Flies With Wit than Boring Press Releases

    DeSantis took notes from former President Donald Trump’s penchant for cutting through forgettable politician-speak and leaning into one-liners and comebacks. A witty line will help people remember what you said, and that’s not limited to media interactions.

    Just look at the cheeky memo DeSantis put out Tuesday [[MORE]] recognizing Emma Weyant, who placed directly behind male swimmer Lia Thomas, as the rightful winner of the NCAA 500-yard freestyle. It’s far more memorable — and therefore, effective — than a whiny, boring press release. Well-placed snark cuts through the cloud of media lies and signals that you won’t play their game.

    The way to defeat the ‘authoritarian liberalism’ of Globalists Brussels and WEF Davos is to confront it.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://thefederalist.com/2022/03/23/8-lessons-from-the-ron-desantis-school-of-dominating-the-corrupt-media/

    [MORE]

  2. sher singh says:

    • Replies: @A123
  3. Azerbaijan is not backing down and Armenia is too weak to fight them on their own.

    The optimistic case for restraining Azerbaijan is that unlike in 2020 when the West was neutral and Russia was in a mood to punish Armenia for their insolence, there is now unity among the major powers that this is a Bad Thing™.

    The pessimistic case is that even if this crisis resolves itself, the cease-fire agreement will lapse in a few years anyway, after which it will be free hunting season for Azerbaijan once more. Doesn’t look too bright for Armenia.

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    , @Dmitry
  4. A123 says: • Website

    From previous OT

    @songbird

    Who wrote Biden’s speech where he mentioned “regime change?”

    Despite the subsequent retraction, this phrase appears to have been planned & scripted. Those who could see the display side of the teleprompter verify the presence of the offending language: (1)

    Those hopes collapsed when the muttering nutter rambled through 20 minutes of incoherent jibberish only to encapsulate the speech with the call for Russian regime change at the end, “for God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.”

    Also, don’t believe the nonsense about those being ‘off-the-cuff‘, or ‘ad-libbed ‘ remarks either. They were written into the teleprompter, and he read them (go look). White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain is trying to cover up his own ineptitude by claiming his boss ad-libbed those statements. He didn’t.

    I doubt that a specific speechwriter can be identified. The whole thing comes off as an amateurish attempt at “good cop, bad cop”.

    Remember, the goal of the Elite WEF is exacerbating the conflict as long as possible. They do not want a ‘winner’ they want the maximum number of refugees to bolster their Open Borders / Great Replacement effort.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/27/nbc-poll-most-believe-biden-to-blame-for-inflation-60-percent-disapprove-of-handling-of-economy-and-71-percent-no-confidence-in-biden-foreign-policy/

    • Replies: @songbird
  5. A123 says: • Website
    @sher singh

    Are you really surprised by such reporting from The New York Dhimmi Times of Islam?

    Smearing Indian Hindus and Sikhs is part & parcel of their Taqiyya duty to bolster the Muslim occupation of Kashmir. If the Dhimmi Times gets a story right, you can be reasonably sure it is purely by accident.

    PEACE 😇

  6. @Thulean Friend

    [MORE]

  7. china-russia-all-the-way says:

    “Putin Stokes Nuclear Fears With Atomic Weapons Warnings”

    While tactical nuclear weapons could trigger bigger and more powerful strategic weapons in response, Mr. Kristensen said it wouldn’t mean immediate all-out nuclear war.

    “I don’t think it’s likely to expect an automatic, super-rapid escalation to all-out,” he said. “Both sides will want to look for ways to keep it limited because they both know full well what the consequences are of full escalation.”

    Analysts said Ukraine would be the most likely target for any tactical nuclear attack, but that escalation after that would be hard to predict, particularly if NATO got involved.

    https://archive.ph/XKDq2

    Western analysts are doing a lousy job of shedding light on realistic scenarios for nuclear war. It’s hard to imagine Russia starting a nuclear war by using tactical nukes in Ukraine. Russia would not because it is far from running out of choosing even more devastating conventional firepower. It seems like most Western analysts even have the view of Russia as in danger of retreating and unable to repel strengthening Ukrainian counterattacks. That’s the impression I get from their wrong analysis of a nuclear war in Ukraine. It is a remarkable show of the power of a month of Twitter information and narrative dominance in distorting even expert perceptions.

    Another downside of bad analysis of nuclear war scenarios is the lack of guidance for policymakers in understanding the consequences of escalation. I think the most obvious scenario for nuclear war is NATO intervention leading to the use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Poland. If this scenario and cause and effect were widely discussed it would dampen the current pro-war climate of providing fighters/getting into an air war/sending ground troops. Maybe for that reason, Western analysts are providing bad takes with the desire of not standing in the way of pro-war enthusiasm.

    • Replies: @Greasy William
    , @Ron Unz
  8. GDP Growth between (2008-2021)

    Greater China (🇨🇳🇲🇴🇭🇰) a 258.046% increase.

    India a 141.803% increase.

    South East Asia/ASEAN a 101.818% increase.

    European Union a 4.97849% increase.

    The European Union will decline after this crisis and then stagnate.

    Germany will not end up overtaking Japan’s economy despite of the Three Lost Decades.

  9. I watched Lira’s Nuland video. Some of his videos are terrible. I learned in this one:

    Nuland’s father was a brilliant accomplished man. He was so depressed when she was a teenager he had 1970’s-era electroshock treatment. The amps and volts they were using then made this a desperation move. Her grandfather was born in Russian empire and fled pogroms. This family is extremely messed up. She wants to destroy Russia.

    Fortunately for them she inherited her mother’s brains.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sherwin_B._Nuland

    Also I looked up her husband. The couple could have a combined three digit Body Mass Index.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  10. songbird says:
    @A123

    From what I’ve seen, it doesn’t look like it would be something easy to read.

    As you alluded to, the front of the glass is unreadable (related to a technology called a “beam splitter”) He was using two panes, one on each side, but at an angle.

    Several people walked behind him, along one side, but at quite a distance, and I believe they were security. I didn’t see the moment in question, but I did not notice anyone standing, but brisk walking, as if they were making it a point not to look at him.

    • Replies: @A123
  11. Aedib says:

    Epic irony

    I never thought that thugs of the Azov battalion could have “officiality”.

  12. Dmitry says:
    @Thulean Friend

    bright for Armenia

    Their conflict is not in legal territory of Armenia (unless in the future there would be fighting for a Nakhchivan corridor), but in Karabakh, which Armenian has settlers in and Armenians have invested a lot in.

    It’s like a conflict located in the West Bank, between Israel and Jordan. It’s not a conflict in Armenia itself, so their situation in war with Azerbaijan, would not be as dangerous to their sovereignty as what happens in Ukraine.

    Probably Armenia’s strategic problem is more that the country itself depopulates, than they would lose the settlements in Karabakh. A country with a falling population, is more in danger from the depopulation in its legally recognized territory. Although at least this year, they will be receiving a lot of immigration from Russia and Ukraine, including a lot of educated people from Russia. Georgia is also being flooded with Russian immigration.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
  13. @Dmitry

    Their conflict is not in legal territory of Armenia, but in Karabakh, which Armenian has settlers in and Armenians have invested a lot in.

    I’m well aware of that.

    Azeris breaking the agreement in such a blatant manner is a prestige defeat for Russia. Moscow now has a strong incentive to enforce the cease-fire agreement, because otherwise it will send a signal to other states that it’s too weak to enforce potential truces/agreements in the future. Thereby reducing its credibility.

    So Russia, in this sense, has a stronger incentive to enforce peace than it had in 2020. In addition, the West is no longer on the fence. That’s my “optimistic” case.

    Aliyev clearly calculated that Russia being distracted in Ukraine would allow for an escalation. We will see shortly if that gamble was correct.

    Although at least this year, they will be receiving a lot of immigration from Russia and Ukraine, including a lot of educated people from Russia.

    How many of those Russians are going to stay? Appears to be a temporary phenomenon. People generally don’t like to emigrate to poorer countries. Some may be digital nomads who may prefer a cheaper cost of living, but I’d assume they wouldn’t want to stay around for the long term, especially once/when the situation in Russia calms down. If not, there are plenty of 1st world countries who would want their services. ACX Open Threads are full of offers.

    Probably Armenia’s strategic problem is more that the country itself depopulates, than they would lose the settlements in Karabakh.

    Hard to see how Armenia can hold on to that territory once the cease-fire agreement formally ends in a few years – assuming Aliyev will be stopped this time around, which is far from clear.

    For whatever reason, Armenians lack what the Palestinians call sumud; an almost fanatical attachment to their land despite overwhelming odds. They prefer to flee like cowards, preferably abroad. Such a people will not have a bright future.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up like Assyrians or other stateless peoples. Then again, is it in Russia’s interest for Armenia to be wiped off the map? It’s not clear to me. Perhaps that is their best shot: become a vassal in all but name to the RF. But the price that Moscow can extract from such an arrangement could be steep: look at its current expectations of Chechens to fight its wars.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  14. Dmitry says:

    Here is a story in Russia today (sorry the resource is only available in Russian https://new-vodokachkin.livejournal.com/274542.html ) .

    They are starting to install hidden microphones in some schools, allegedly to monitor for suspicious discussions among children. These will be determined by the “neural network” for suspicious words like bombs, etc. But in anyway, the precedent to be live recording and analyzing children’s private conversations in schools.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    , @216
  15. Dmitry says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Russians are going to stay?

    Even in the normal peaceful situation of the last decade, it has been very difficult for most people to “escape” to a wealthy country. This is just not an option easily available for normal workers.

    For most elite countries, you need a specific skilled profession, a job already secure in this profession, usually with a large corporation (to organize your visa), often a high score in an internationally recognized language exam to prepare you for the job interviews with those corporations. This all requires investment of money and time. Including (in my recommendation) going to language schools abroad when you are younger, although which requires your parents to pay a lot if you are a teenager or student.

    Even then, you have quite a few years in a vulnerable situation internationally, being dependent on your employer for visa renewal.

    Perhaps, some countries like Canada were more “open borders”, however, probably Canada receives less desirable immigrants as a result. (And Israel had real open borders for people with Jewish roots, and as a result received much lower “economic quality” of immigration).

    But, now a lot of people with relevant skills (I won’t say “stupid people”, but poorly planning people) are suddenly panicking for an exit, which they could only have prepared carefully in the previous years. It’s another variant in Aesop’s fable of the “Ant and the Grasshopper”. It was obvious what you needed to plan for all these years, but many people don’t think in advance.

    The consequence of this, is that some of these disorganized people might really try to settle in Armenia, Georgia, Serbia, Turkey (at least there will be a lot of IT outsourcing starting there, as well as good food and sunny weather). It’s not impossible they will panic enough that this will happen. Israel will also receive tens of thousands of panicked immigrants from Russia and Ukraine (but less immediately, because preparation of documents often requires a year). I’m not sure Western countries will lower entry requirements, but more likely the opposite. Why should they accept badly planning people from Russia? Would you look at such kind of potential employees, compared to well organized people who planned carefully their lives? I’m not sure I would want to employ them even if they had relevant skills.

    Perhaps China would become a popular option for immigration from Russia and Ukraine. More elites destinations like South Korea, Singapore, Japan, Australia are perhaps quite strict for immigration, though I cannot say I have investigated any of this.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  16. A123 says: • Website

    Given that this is an OPEN THREAD. I give you the latest in Auto Racing.

    The full replay of the 12 Hours of Sebring

    PEACE 😇

  17. Aedib says:

    As Banderist resistance in Mariupol is dying now, the Zelensky regime starts just another series of Twitter counter-attacks.

  18. AP says:

    Ukrainian schools seem not too bad?

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @songbird
    , @A123
    , @Wokechoke
  19. songbird says:
    @AP

    One could get a lot of droll observations about modern Western Europe from these young Ukrainians, by asking them the right questions.

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  20. songbird says:

    Seem to recall vaguely from somewhere (perhaps, McCullough’s 1776) that George Washington was a barrel aficionado, and liked the idea of using them as a weapon, by rolling them downhill.

    Perhaps, this reflects the fact that Northern Euro culture was a beer and barrel-making one, as mentioned by Pliny the Elder.

    Wonder if he ever had any ideas about using butter as a weapon, or cows.

  21. A123 says: • Website
    @AP

    The look on the face of the adjacent Muslim student is priceless.

    PEACE 😇

  22. Dmitry says:
    @Philip Owen

    Morgenshtern now prophetically a few months ahead of trend (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8y3z-I9VP4.)

    With the elite countries being as we know very difficult to enter from Russia for badly organized people who did not plan their life, and all accommodation overbooked in Armenia, Georgia et al.

    If I had a startup with team of employees in Russia (which is not any of my real life problems or anything I would know about organizing), I would be now speculating if I could re-locate in this theoretical scenario a team perhaps to Chile to still be accepted by international investors.

    Nobody talks about Chile, but they supposedly promote a “hi tech scene” there. For Russians it is very easy to learn Spanish (surprisingly similar language) to level to allow for daily living.

    It’s definitely not an elite country, so I assume it would be easy to apply for working visas. On the other hand, standard of living is probably not so bad at all in Santiago for urban professionals. But perhaps it would not be so easy, as the politicians there have a lot of pressure from anti-immigrant sentiment protesters at the moment ( https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/venezuelan-migrants-chile-face-fiery-anti-immigration-protests-rcna2358 )

  23. songbird says:

    Somewhere, (was is /pol/?) someone posted a pic that purported to be from a Russian unit overrunning a group of international volunteers, who deserted their posts, and being shocked to find that among the dropped equipment was a dildo.

    Just had a snap impression of it. As a still image it could have easily been staged – I’d honestly like to believe it was. But I really find it harder and harder, each day. For one thing, it matches completely what the other side is actually saying:

    [MORE]

    With a rainbow sticker reading “Make Kyiv Queer Again” proudly branded across his rifle, Andrii takes to the front line in the north of the capital each day.

    Identifying as pansexual — which means he is attracted to all genders — the 26-year-old had no hesitation joining Ukraine’s Territorial Defence Forces on day one of Russia’s invasion.

    Far from his life as a psychotherapist, Andrii is out to protect the streets where he grew up and to fight against the “social-political oppressive machine”.

    “We’re in danger, of not only imperial Tsar reign, there’s also a damn lot of sexism, racism and tremendous homophobia coming to us from the east,” he told the ABC.

    “I was extremely scared the first days, but now things are different. We are well supplied, trained and have 100 plans for any circumstance — we’re all inspired and confident.”

    Andrii, who preferred to only give his first name, said there were a lot of LGBTQI people in the Ukrainian military who were on the front lines after fighting in Donbas for eight years.

    He said they were fighting for their freedoms and have brought a “specific greeting” with them.

    “One of the national slogans is ‘Glory to Nation! Death to the enemies!’ and the LGBTQI soldiers in the army have changed it to ‘Queer to Nation! Death to the enemies!’” he said…

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-28/lgbtq-rights-russia-invasion-kyiv-queer-activism/100932590

  24. A123 says: • Website
    @songbird

    To me, the idea that it was intentionally on the teleprompter to deliberately generate a “news cycle” makes the most sense.

    However, if you insist on the gaffe excuse… That gets quite amusing.

    PEACE 😇

     

    • LOL: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @songbird
  25. @Dmitry

    As an American, I understand his general positions in international relationship, often finding them less tortured than American justifications.
    If I was Russian I think I would have a respect for Putin for stopping the hemhorraging of the Yeltsin years, but still be dubious of Putin’s policies domestically.

  26. @Dmitry

    I was under the impression that Chile had a fair bit of ethnocentric superiority baked into their culture. Not as much as Argentina certainly but in that vein. They may look at Venezuelans as inferior brown hoi-polloi, while being more accepting of Russians as relative cultural equals, or at least not regarding them with hostility.

    It’s just a guess on my part.

    • Replies: @216
  27. songbird says:
    @A123

    The look on the face of the adjacent Muslim student is priceless.

    Am impressed by your confident identification.

    Nearly dancing on the edge of supposing that she must be from Mali. But there are so many tribes and phenotypes from Francophone Africa, that I don’t feel confident myself.

    But you have got me wondering what percentage of blacks in France are Muslim.
    _____
    That is pretty funny what Panetta said. (though I have never heard it before) One sad thing about the melting pot is that it cuts down on these funny, ethnic stereotype claims about politicians, sometimes made by themselves. My favorite, of course, is when some womanizers blame it on their “Italian blood.” Though Italians were possibly the last big group of Euros to come, so that might explain the frequency of the claim.

    Am somewhat dismayed to find that Biden is accounted 5/8 Irish. Though, I feel in my heart as though it must really be somewhat less than half, if one accounted for blood rather than geography.

    JFK may have been a scoundrel, but at least he was genuinely a war hero. (that is, unless his war story was concocted)

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Alfa158
  28. 216 says: • Website
    @Dmitry

    It’s a badly kept secret that the Google Chromebooks for schools was designed to do the exact same thing.

    • Agree: Barbarossa
  29. 216 says: • Website
    @Barbarossa

    The current Chilean President is a big shitlib, and the country was a progenitor of the BLM cultural revolution in the US, with a new leftist constitution being imposed.

    I would imagine that Boric would look favorably on disaffected Russian liberal emigres.

  30. songbird says:

    Seems quite surprising to me that Peru is food negative.

    • Replies: @Badger Down
  31. A123 says: • Website
    @songbird

    The look on the face of the adjacent Muslim student is priceless.

    Am impressed by your confident identification.

    Nearly dancing on the edge of supposing that she must be from Mali. But there are so many tribes and phenotypes from Francophone Africa, that I don’t feel confident myself.

    French colonial African Christians become “French”. Once assimilated, mixed race “French” Christian marriages are quite common in France. The results could be described as light brown (or anachronisticly as high yellow).

    While not 100% certain, based on the limited evidence of a single photo, the odds are steeply in in my favour in terms of Muslim identification.

    you have got me wondering what percentage of blacks in France are Muslim.

    Sadly, European statistical entities hate keeping that sort of demographic. Any such research will be further complicated by the aforementioned mixed race marriages.

    If you find a reliable study, please share it.

    PEACE 😇

  32. @china-russia-all-the-way

    I just can’t see direct NATO intervention. Europeans won’t fight and while the US Deep State would love to put troops in Ukraine, the US public would never stand for it. Also I don’t think that the current woke US military is capable of conducting successful combat operations.

    • Replies: @Talha2
  33. @Blinky Bill

    That Europe and Canada have managed to stagnate since 2008 with no political upheaval shows that there is no hope whatsoever for those countries.

  34. Ron Unz says:
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    WSJ: “Putin Stokes Nuclear Fears With Atomic Weapons Warnings”

    Analysts said Ukraine would be the most likely target for any tactical nuclear attack, but that escalation after that would be hard to predict, particularly if NATO got involved.

    I’ve seen those same “expert” opinions quoted in the MSM, and they don’t seem to make any sense.

    Entirely leaving aside the claims that the Russian military is being defeated in Ukraine, they ignore Russia’s important conventional advantage in hypersonic missiles, which Scott Ritter seems to have confirmed in his long interview.

    As far as I can tell, Russia’s anti-missile defense systems are top quality, and they could probably shoot down all our old-fashioned cruise missiles. Meanwhile, their hypersonics seems to be completely unstoppable.

    For example, I think Putin could announce that tomorrow morning at 10am he’ll be destroying NATO headquarters in Brussels, and there’s absolutely nothing NATO could do to stop that. Same for the Pentagon.

    Instead of arguing about stupid videos of individual tanks getting blown up, I think this is a much more important topic to consider. Is there any evidence that Ritter and the others who make this claim are incorrect?

    Fortunately, entirely contrary to our MSM propaganda, Putin is a very rational individual with extremely limited aims who certainly doesn’t want to risk nuclear war. But given what seems to be Russia’s clear conventional superiority, our very bad and provocative behavior over the last few years in Ukraine is dangerously crazy. But since everyone knows that America’s leaders are crazy about so many other things, why should this be surprising?

  35. This deadline is approaching – fast. Who will blink first?

    • Replies: @songbird
    , @Thulean Friend
  36. songbird says:

    What will happen to Germany with energy?

    Originally, I thought that all the actions would be limited to Nord Stream 2, and the rest of it would be talk. But, perhaps, unintentionally, they seem to be caught in an ideological trap of not being willing to pay in rubles. And, as far as I can tell, they have underestimated Russia’s willingness to pull the plug.

    It is spring, at least. But I doubt that they can make up the difference over the next six or seven months. And that is not even considering industry, in the meantime.

  37. songbird says:
    @Thulean Friend

    I found Ursula von der Leyen amusing when she said “We will not allow our sanctions to be circumvented. The time when energy could be used to blackmail us is over.”

    I mean, she has to be talking about winter, right? But that seems like very short term thinking. And total lack of thought about industry.

    I suspect that, short of some peace deal (which may be unlikely), the EU elites would be willing to go to rationing, as long as it remains a workable solution for staying in power.

    • Agree: Thulean Friend
    • Replies: @Beckow
    , @216
  38. @Blinky Bill

    The European Union will decline after this crisis and then stagnate.

    The stagnation already happened after 2008 GFC and the 2011 eurozone crisis.

    These numbers are in US dollars. The euro was overvalued leading up to 2008 and the dollar undervalued, which can partly explain why the stagnation happened: there had to be an adjustment. As an aside, the dollar being undervalued in early 2000s may sound counter-intuitive given how wide American trade deficits were, but that was largely a function of an even more undervalued Yuan.

    The 2010s saw a re-alignment for both of these currencies, which depressed EU GDP. Now the opposite argument can be made: America’s gigantic trade deficits are partly a function of an overvalued greenback whereas Europe has consistent trade surpluses.

    That being said, Europe’s willingness to throw away its economic well-being to pursue a costly and ultimately foolish US-led proxy war in Ukraine doesn’t portend well for the continent. You cannot have prosperity if you do not have independence of action.

    • Thanks: Blinky Bill
  39. Alfa158 says:
    @songbird

    The story doesn’t appear to be concocted but it was promoted to bring him public attention and set him up for a political career. The writer John Hersey who later wrote Hiroshima, wrote a long recounting of the action that was published in New Yorker magazine during the war, thus bringing JFK to the attention of the journalists and elite who read that magazine.
    The actual event wasn’t quite Medal of Honor material but he was brave, did his duty and took care of his men. If you strip out the puffery and dramatization, basically his PT boat was on a night patrol and was run over by a Japanese destroyer when they blundered into each other. JFK organized the survivors and swam with them to shore, helping a badly wounded crewman, then swam for help.
    The destroyer captain survived the war and was interviewed by reporters when JFK was President. As I recall it was kind of funny, they breathlessly asked him to recount the story and the captain was somewhat nonplussed. He basically just said “uh, well we were on patrol, and we ran over a boat and were in a hurry so we didn’t stop”. “Are you happy you didn’t inadvertently kill the man who would become President of the US?” “Yeah sure, whatever”.

  40. utu says:
    @Ron Unz

    (1) Talking about Russia’s use of nuclear weapons is natural consequence of what Putin was intimating in his speeches and it is a well known Russian doctrine of de-escalation (of conventional war) via nuclear escalation so talking abpould could be justified. But I agree that Russia would not do it unless some Karlin like madman took over Kremlin but talking about it in our media actually serves Putin as it is defeatist in nature as Putin wants to bring Ukraine and the West sooner to the negotiating table. Your vigilance of picking up all anti-Russian vibes in the MSN seems to be off. Talking about nukes is pro-Russian because that’s what Russia wants us do.

    (2) US can do the same to Kremlin with ballistic missiles what you claim Moscow can do to Pentagon with its “hypersonic” wunderwaffe.

    (3) Does Russia have better anti-missile systems? Where did this idea come from? Can they intercept ballistic missiles that are as hypersonic as say, Russian Kinzhal. Kinzhal is modified Iskander. And Iskander not much different from Pershings that were retired in 1990’s?

    (4). Hype of hypersonic weapons.

    HYPERSONIC HYPE OVERESTIMATES MODERN MISSILE DEFENSE CAPABILITIES ( March 28, 2022)
    https://www.sandboxx.us/blog/hypersonic-hype-overestimates-modern-missile-defense-capabilities/

    Because most conversations surrounding hypersonic missiles tend to focus a great deal on the idea that they can’t be intercepted, the inference seems to be that non-hypersonic ballistic and cruise missiles are a problem that current air defenses have already solved. Below every story or video you can find online about the Kinzhal, for instance, you’ll find commenters arguing that the Kinzhal must be some kind of cutting-edge technology like the world has never seen, otherwise, the U.S. would have systems that can intercept it.

    This imaginary juxtaposition of “impossible to stop” future missiles against “practically useless” current missiles is, to be clear, just that: imaginary.

    • Replies: @Greasy William
    , @Dmitry
  41. @Ron Unz

    For example, I think Putin could announce that tomorrow morning at 10am he’ll be destroying NATO headquarters in Brussels, and there’s absolutely nothing NATO could do to stop that. Same for the Pentagon.

    That would destroy the globalist deep state like nothing else. Alas, Putin is unlikely to go along with this idea. Because,

    Putin is a very rational individual with extremely limited aims who certainly doesn’t want to risk nuclear war

    But many times a rational individual cannot fight a crazy, wicked, evil oligarchy. Some quantity of unpredictability is absolutely essential. Nothing worse than the enemy predicting your reactions 100% under all circumstances.

  42. @utu

    The Saudis have had a fair amount of success against Houthi ballistic missiles using the PAC-3. I think they intercept like 50%, something that would have been unthinkable 30 years ago.

  43. German_reader says:

    Former president of Estonia. His profile pic shows him talking to John McCain.
    While I would even admit that Lindner’s behaviour towards the Ukrainian ambassador was inappropriate, I increasingly think those Baltic dwarf states should be ignored. Their representatives seem to be incapable of expressing themselves in a way that doesn’t let their deep-rooted inferiority complexes and resentments shine through.

    • Replies: @sudden death
  44. @German_reader

    lol, and many here been making fun of soviet boomer Putler with his idiotic and delusional planing abilities, but appears he is no any different from some absolutely respectable average mainstream carreer politician in the middle of EU. Luckily it is bad omen for RF though 😉
    btw, honesty should be valued in such conversations, not condemned, as it saves very much time, so Ilves himself looks like quite an idiot too without a doubt, if he is really sincere.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  45. German_reader says:
    @sudden death

    from some absolutely respectable average mainstream carreer politician in the middle of EU.

    Lindner isn’t a politician I’m going to defend, and I would even admit that Germany’s stance prior to the invasion (not sending weapons to Ukraine) was very misguided. Still, people like Ilves should learn to express their sentiments in a more diplomatic way. These points of view aren’t constructive when it looks like the next winter might be rather problematic for Germany in terms of energy supply.
    And to be blunt, I’m really creeped out by the enthusiasm for people like John McCain…ok, I get many Eastern Europeans are legitimately afraid of Russia, but imo it’s foolish if this translates into support for the most extreme American hegemonists.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    , @iffen
  46. German_reader says:

    Globohomo news from Germany:
    https://jungefreiheit.de/debatte/kommentar/2022/transgender-maus/

    Sendung mit der Maus, one of Germany’s longest-running children’s tv programmes (aimed at children in kindergarten and elementary school), recently had a segment about transgenderism…ending on the hopeful note that soon everybody in Germany will be able to declare their gender according to their own desires without much legal hassle (this is a reference to legislation to that effect planned by the new government).
    TV must be one of the worst inventions ever, even if the medium isn’t inherently subversive, it’s certainly one of the more effective channels for re-propramming society.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    , @songbird
  47. @German_reader

    looks like the next winter might be rather problematic for Germany in terms of energy supply.

    imho, there about 70% probability that all the fun with natgas export ban from RF will begin way sooner, next week even. OTOH it is way better to start all the forced natgas rationing in spring &summer, when overall demand is seasonally lower than in the middle of winter.

    30% leaving for the possibility of introducing some convoluted Kremlin financial legal scheming of EU natgas payments a la “baikal finans group” circa Yukos raiding era, which will change nothing in essence, but will be presented as some huge rouble victory through various RF prop channels for the gullible audiences both domestic&abroad.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
  48. iffen says:
    @German_reader

    it looks like the next winter might be rather problematic for Germany in terms of energy supply.

    Not to worry, Ted Cruz will be sending you American LNG. You will, of course, have to pay 4-5 times what you would have paid for Russian gas, but you will have the satisfaction of knowing that you are helping the world’s greatest defender and promoter of rainbow people and not some backward country that hates it’s LGBTQXYZ citizens.

    • LOL: LondonBob
    • Replies: @sudden death
  49. @iffen

    some backward country that hates it’s LGBTQXYZ citizens

    What a disgusting slander, how dare you?!

  50. @Dmitry

    Chile does happen to be sitting on very large reserves of Lithium, which is a good jump starter for hi tech.

  51. @Alfa158

    It was an episode of McHale’s Navy (comedy show about PT Boat commander

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McHale%27s_Navy

    and his doofus commanding officers.) Tim Conway was one of them and he actually was a great comedian though you probably did not see much of that in this stupid television show. McHale was a better driver than the Kennedy family members.

    Does anybody know the correct spelling of Kennedy, plural? Neither Kennedies nor Kennedys looks right to me so I have to write awkward sentences like the two previous!

  52. LondonBob says:

    Seen a few takes saying security guarantees are the equivalent of NATO so unacceptable to Russia, don’t understand this argument, the issue is foreign troops basing there, exercises with foreign militaries and WMDs, all of which are to be prohibited. Whether Ukraine ever joins the EU is doubtful, perhaps more of a sticking point though.

    Hopefully these talks will go somewhere, they seem to be doing so. Lets see how the crazies react…

  53. LondonBob says:
    @sudden death

    Storage levels in Europe, already at levels that indicate issues next winter, are rebuilt in the summer. Also industry requires natural gas supply to keep the factories working, again there are already issues here. That is before we get in to issues regarding production of diesel, fertiliser and the myriad of items that are by-products of the energy sector. You sound as clueless as the neocons when they frog marched us off the economic cliff.

    • Replies: @sudden death
  54. Mr. Hack says:

    The real president Trump, very recently came out and inferred that Biden is acting cowardly and that the US should be sending more than just planes to Ukraine:

    How will posterity judge us 100 years from now for being so cowardly and sitting on the sidelines?

  55. LondonBob says:
    @Mr. Hack

    Trump let the Iranians bomb that US base, just political point scoring, Russia and Ukraine isn’t something he will want to dog him in his second term. Instinctively antiwar.

  56. A123 says: • Website
    @Mr. Hack

    The real president Trump, very recently came out and inferred that Biden is acting cowardly and that the US should be sending more than just planes to Ukraine:

    Bludgeoning the current occupied White House is not a good predictor for future policy. Inferring, on your part, is a precarious position.

    Trump started no new wars despite being baited by sociopath Khamenei.

      

    You assumption that Trump would start a war with Russia is quite detached from Trump’s actual record.

    How will posterity judge us 100 years from now for being so cowardly and sitting on the sidelines?

    Posterity will judge Not-The-President Biden as a loose cannon, nearly provoking nuclear war. Posterity will judge those who avoided such a war as wise.

    ______

    Let me restate material from a prior post:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-182-russia-ukraine/#comment-5256569

    @MrHack
    My strategy is to wait till “the real not the president Trump” is reelected and becomes the real president again. He’ll correct things in the US and in Ukraine too, just wait and see. Putin will have no other choice but to remove all of his troops from Ukraine, in deference to Trump’s omniscient greatness.

    @A123
    There can be little doubt that Not-The-President Biden’s elevation emboldened aggressive WEF Elites. The Blue Coup color revolution in the U.S. placed a huge amount of pressure on Putin to act sooner rather than later.

    It is key to note that Trump is neither omniscient nor omnipotent. Your expectation that he will be able to somehow reverse Putin’s gains to date is badly misplaced. You have the magnitude wrong, and likely the direction too.

    I suspect Trump would tacitly endorse Putin’s border revisions as fait accompli. The last thing MAGA wants is Russia supporting the actual enemy to American worker/citizens. Peeling Russia away from China, at aggressor WEF/Ukraine expense, would be a win.

    Your expectation that Trump will ride in to save the day is deluded. This will be over in a few months.

    PEACE 😇

    • Agree: A123
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    , @AP
  57. Mr. Hack says:
    @A123

    You assumption that Trump would start a war with Russia is quite detached from Trump’s actual record.

    I never inferred nor stated that Trump should start a war with Russia in order to presumably save Ukraine. For supposedly being a sophisticated commenter at this blog, you have this bad habit of putting words in peoples’ mouths. Helping Ukraine out by sending some weaponry (planes) that it can use to defend itself, especially in its skys, would be heroic. To believe that Putin would retaliate against any such action by using atomic weaponry is foolish. Ronald Reagan stood up to a much stronger and unified Soviet Union, took a lot of flack for it, and remains a popular conservative cultural icon to this day. Your weak stance as to not supplying Ukraine with planes is much more reminiscent of the “loose canon” Biden, then either that of Trump or Reagan. 🙁

    The fact remains that Trump is now on record for supporting planes for Ukraine, while you whimper around trying to run some sort of misdirection against his stated stance.

    • LOL: A123
  58. German_reader says:
    @Mr. Hack

    What does Ukraine need planes for (whose number would be rather limited in any case), the course of the war so far seems to indicate that anti-tank weapons and anti-air missiles can be pretty effective, not least in urban combat.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    , @AP
  59. A123 says: • Website
    @Mr. Hack

    Your illiteracy is a severe problem. Combine that with your unsophisticated trolling and the most you can do is provide comic relief.

    — You Keep Lying —
    — We Keep Laughing —

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  60. @songbird

    by asking them the right questions.

    [MORE]

    • LOL: songbird
    • Replies: @German_reader
  61. @Mr. Hack

    Reading this makes me glad I voted third-party instead of trump the second time around.

    The US government does not need to instigate or escalate conflict any more than it has already. If Trump wants to help Americans be safer and less poor, he should call for an end to US invasions, occupations, and meddling far from our borders — and the gradual closure of most of our 700-plus bases abroad. That eliminates hundreds of “tripwires” that can get us unnecessarily into conflicts far from our borders. It will save more than \$150 Billion per year, too, all of it borrowed.

    Instead, Trump appears content with the US’s military encirclement of Russia, its breaking of multiple clear high-level promises not to move NATO eastward, its apparent construction of biological-warfare laboratories on Russia’s borders, its economic sanctions designed to hurt average Russian families, its attempt to interfere in and overthrow governments or exacerbate unrest in neighboring CIS countries like Kazakhstan, its support for beating & terrorizing and discriminating against Russian-speakers in the ukraine, its assistance in inculcating ukrainian youth to hate their close kindred people in Russia proper, and its constant lies, exaggerations and insults against Russians.

    We don’t make America great again by spending ourselves further into oblivion. Trump’s preferred policy of massive ever-increasing military budgets and escalation of war with Russia isn’t even arguably in the interest of Americans. With the aggressive attempt to control the world and dictate to other countries far away from us, people like Trump ensure ever more government debt, ever higher interest payments on that debt, then hyperinflation and insolvency.

    But you appear to be correct that Trump was elected president of the USA, not fraudsident biden.

    • Replies: @A123
  62. German_reader says:
    @Blinky Bill

    [MORE]

    Some German journo also coined the term “Afrokrainer” (“Afrokrainians”), it’s clear that the refugee movement from Ukraine will be exploited by Africans and other non-Europeans (the German government refuses to implement border controls, so anyone can come).

  63. @Mr. Hack

    Our kids are learning Mandarin. They’ll let you know how historians record this era.

  64. utu says:
    @Mr. Hack

    The planes should have and could have been given to Ukraine long time ago. But the process that was going on behind the scenes was sabotaged by making it public by, iirc Josep Borrell that led to Blinken’s “green light” putting Poland on the spot and Poland’s proposal to hand over planes to the US first and then Nuland and State Dept getting cold feet which all took place in the public sphere. The process that should have been kept behind the scenes was made public which allowed for the input and interference by all kinds of twats exemplified here by German_reader here and other Russian assets. Josep Borrell should be thoroughly X-rayed and subjected to very deep and invasive colonoscopy to find his Russian connections.

    Russian nuclear threats should be ignored in decisions making. The threats are made for the twats like German_reader and Russian assets to pick theme up and amplify. Russians will threaten us with nukes when we try to stop buying their gas and oil which is Russian version of gunboat diplomacy many orders of magnitude greater than opening Japan by Commodore Perry. But Japanese did not have guns while we have nukes. The doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction is here to stay and it keeps the balance as it kept before and us withdrawing from doing something because Russia is making threats only weakens the effectiveness of MAD and brings the war more likely. Thus the “Bring It On” attitude is what makes MAD effective. Russians know that that’s why they so much rely on twats like German_reader to erode the MAD.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  65. Beckow says:
    @songbird

    We will not allow our sanctions to be circumvented. The time when energy could be used to blackmail us is over.

    Thus spoke Ursula: a perfect example of an assistant school principal rising to the heights if power. They have one in England too, even dumber. The time for running in the hallways is over!!!

    Brussels is committed – the switch to rubles would be too humiliating and very public. We will get rationing, promises, blackmail – block any oil and gas they can, that’s what navies are for.

    Russia’s point is simple: you can’t pay us in money that you then freeze. Saying that energy is exempted is nonsense – money is fungible. EU in effect demands energy from Russia for free – that’s what freezing the euro payment accounts means. Let’s see who blinks.

    Kiev has tried this and ended up buying with a huge mark-up through intermediaries. It can be costly. Anyone can open an energy shop in Yerevan or Istanbul and for a fee exchange euros for rubles. (Yevardian is leaving, maybe he smells a business opportunity?)

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @Aedib
    , @songbird
  66. German_reader says:
    @utu

    The process that should have been kept behind the scenes was made public which allowed for the input and interference by all kinds of twats exemplified here by German_reader here and other Russian assets.

    Yeah, I’m sure they didn’t send those planes because of me.
    The planes are merely a symbolic issue anyway, the number of MiGs from Eastern EU states that could be given away can’t be that high, and of course you’re not even trying to make a case they would have much effect on the war (unlike the anti-tank weapons and anti-air missiles which have proven to be effective in degrading Russian capabilities).

    Russian nuclear threats should be ignored in decisions making.

    Boomer who’s spent the last two years hysterically screeching about Corona thinks one should totally ignore the nuke issue in decision-making. Can’t make this shit up.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @LatW
  67. Mr. Hack says:
    @A123

    Your reply is pathetic. There was nothing at all unsophisticated, nor funny nor any lie within my reply. Your inability to respond (as others have) in an intelligent manner belies your weak and defenseless stance. Methinks that it’s actually you who is acting the troll.

    Nobody’s laughing, except maybe at you. 🙂

    • Replies: @A123
  68. A123 says: • Website
    @Radicalcenter

    you appear to be correct that Trump was elected president of the USA, not fraudsident biden.

    Almost everyone has reached this conclusion. Every objective look at 2020 demonstrates more vote fraud. (1)

    In his report, on the Public Choice website but still awaiting final approval, Lott said that there were 255,000 excess votes and possibly as many as 368,000 for Biden in the key states.

    He concluded, “The voter turnout rate data provide stronger evidence of significant excess Biden votes in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The estimates imply that the counties wherein vote fraud was alleged returned between 142,000 and 368,000 excess Biden votes. While the findings reported here are dramatic, they may be underestimates because the voter turnout estimates do not account for ballots cast for the opposing candidate that are lost, destroyed, or replaced with ballots filled out for the other candidate.

    Anyone claiming Not-The-President Biden as legitimate are at best out-of-touch, at worst genuinely irrational.

    Trump appears content with the US’s military encirclement of Russia, its breaking of multiple clear high-level promises not to move NATO eastward, …

    You are falling into the same bad assumption as Mr. Troll.

    While Trump should be in office, he is not. He is not even formally campaigning as a candidate at this point. Trump is not in a position to officially set policy, thus he has much broader latitude to roast the occupied White House.

    His record while in office shows substantial resistance to the excesses of NeoConDemocrat warmongers.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/washington-secrets/new-report-255-000-excess-votes-for-biden-in-six-key-2020-states

  69. Mr. Hack says:
    @German_reader

    I’m no military expert, but those in the know seem to indicate that planes would be needed in some instances, beyond drones and anti-air missiles. I often wonder how many planes Ukraine actually still has that can be used? Reports seem to indicate that they’re still being used and are quite effective.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  70. German_reader says:
    @Mr. Hack

    Ok, I’m no military expert either. I don’t really have a position whether it would be a good idea or not to give Ukraine those planes, on some level it shouldn’t be any more escalatory than the arms shipments that are already happening. But I don’t know how much it would impact the defense capabilities of Eastern EU members.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Beckow
  71. A123 says: • Website
    @Mr. Hack

    Mr. Troll,

    ROTFLMAO

    My reply is accurate. Your denial is ludicrous.

    Let us examine your histrionic diatribe / fake position.

    — Cowardice = Sending potentially useful arms to Ukraine.
    — Bravery = Adding a tiny number of planes unlikely to be useful.

    According to you, Mr. Troll, actions that change nothing are determinate between Cowardice & Bravery. No one with two brain cells to rub together would attempt make that sort of specious, bizzaro-land distinction.

    PEACE 😇
    _________________________________

    We are not laughing with you.
       We are all laughing at you!!!

    _________________________________

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  72. Russia is one of the few White countries that doesn’t allow endless third world immigration.

    Another country is Ukraine.

    But the White nationalists here think it is a win against the Jews to have Russia butcher White Ukrainians.

    White nationalists like Anglin that defend Putin should line up on a bridge and jump off while shouting

    INTERNATIONAL JEWRY I STAB AT THEE

  73. Mr. Hack says:
    @A123

    Hey, I know that you’ve been scrambling to counter Trump’s recent call to send some planes to Ukraine. I’ll even concede that it’s in part politically motivated to make Biden (and guys like you) look cowardly. Last time around I suggested that you take two aspirins to deal with the pain. Calling me names wont help. Maybe this time try a good stiff drink of good old fashioned American bourbon to cope. 🙂

    • LOL: A123
    • Replies: @A123
  74. Beckow says:
    @German_reader

    ….it would impact the defense capabilities of Eastern EU members.

    Do you mean NATO members? This confusing EU and NATO shows that you really don’t understand much of anything.

    But there would be no impact, we don’t shoot at each others lately and any threat from Russia would be long-distance, the MIGs couldn’t do anything about it.

    If the MIGs move to Ukraine they would be quickly destroyed. The weaker side in a war should minimize potential targets. Kiev is doing the opposite: digging in its forces so they can be gradually obliterated, prancing around places like Mariupol where there is no way to escape, showcasing planes and ‘volunteers’ so Russia has more targets.

    The way to get something out of this for Kiev is jiu-jitsu: stop shooting, withdraw and scatter. That would preserve Ukie forces, put Russians in a difficult position of responsibility for civilians, and move the conflict from war to discussions: West is clearly better at talking than Russia. Russia traditionally wins wars and loses peace.

    But Washington prefers Ukie martyrs, more blood the better – they really don’t care much how people in Ukraine live, they are just props in their power games.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  75. German_reader says:
    @Beckow

    Do you mean NATO members? This confusing EU and NATO shows that you really don’t understand much of anything.

    Was somewhat sloppy on my part, but the Eastern EU members are all in NATO (and iirc Russia in 2014 also seemed to regard the two organizations as linked; btw, wtf, Albania and Montenegro are in NATO? I’m sure I registered it at the time of their accession, but still shocking to be reminded of this absurdity).
    Disagree about your recommendations for Ukraine, they have to keep fighting until Russia is willing to settle for acceptable terms.
    Anyway, since I manage to get shit both from you and that miserable old fool utu (who by now belongs in a padded cell, given his insane, paranoid ranting about “Russian assets” hiding in cupboards and who knows where else) I probably should follow Yevardian and take a break from this comments section. Almost everything worth saying about this war has been said many times over anyway, not much point to write more until there’s some sort of conclusion.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  76. Dmitry says:
    @Ron Unz

    fashioned cruise missiles

    Strategic nuclear weapons are fired by intercontinental ballistic missiles.

    Cruise missiles are a kind of small unmanned, subsonic kamikaze plane. They are used for tactical bombing of fixed targets.

    shoot down all our

    From all I read, intercontinental ballistic missiles cannot be intercepted by current missile defense, well at least with MIRV (Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicle).

    NATO’s strategic nuclear weapons use MIRV, while Russia is currently also upgrading to this system (with around 30% of strategic missiles now claimed to be moving to MIRV according to the articles I read)

    their hypersonics seems to be

    Strategic nuclear weapons, on all sides, will be from intercontinental ballistic missiles, which are “hypersonic” (above Mach 5). For example, the new intercontinental ballistic missiles are going to Mach 23.

    In strategic missile conflict between Russia vs. USA (with maybe UK and France). Weapons used will be these below.

    Russia
    From submarine
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSM-56_Bulava
    From land
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RT-2PM2_Topol-M

    USA
    From submarine
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UGM-133_Trident_II
    From land
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGM-30_Minuteman

    France
    From submarine
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M51_(missile)

    United Kingdom
    From submarine
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trident_(UK_nuclear_programme)

    rational individual with extremely limited aims who certainly doesn’t want to risk nuclear war.

    Nuclear war is always very unlikely, but because as an ordinary citizen we can’t really know how unlikely. It is still a good idea to know how you would manage.

    There is the map of probable targets in the USA according to Federal Emergency Management Agency. Blast radius is not that large of the weapons and number fired would not be as many as shown in this map, but fallout would be going over wider areas.

    For Russia, NATO would probably focus on “genociding” the country by destroying of cities.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
    , @RadicalCenter
  77. @Ron Unz

    Entirely leaving aside the claims that the Russian military is being defeated in Ukraine, they ignore Russia’s important conventional advantage in hypersonic missiles, which Scott Ritter seems to have confirmed in his long interview.

    I suspect you’ve already read his latest in-depth analysis, in case you haven’t and for the benefit of others.

    [MORE]

    1/ Big Arrow War—a primer. For all those scratching their heads in confusion, or dusting off their dress uniforms for the Ukrainian victory parade in Kiev, over the news about Russia’s “strategic shift”, you might want to re-familiarize yourself with basic military concepts.

    2/ Maneuver warfare is a good place to start. Understand Russia started its “special military operation” with a severe manpower deficit—200,000 attackers to some 600,000 defenders (or more). Classic attritional conflict was never an option. Russian victory required maneuver.

    3/ Maneuver war is more psychological than physical and focuses more on the operational than on the tactical level. Maneuver is relational movement—how you deploy and move your forces in relation to your opponent. Russian maneuver in the first phase of its operation support this.

    4/ The Russians needed to shape the battlefield to their advantage. In order to do this, they needed to control how Ukraine employed it’s numerically superior forces, while distributing their own smaller combat power to best accomplish this objective.

    5/ Strategically, to facilitate the ability to maneuver between the southern, central, and northern fronts, Russia needed to secure a land bridge between Crimea and Russia. The seizure of the coastal city of Mariupol was critical to this effort. Russia has accomplished this task.

    6/ While this complex operation unfolded, Russia needed to keep Ukraine from maneuvering its numerically superior forces in a manner that disrupted the Mariupol operation. This entailed the use of several strategic supporting operations—feints, fixing operations, and deep attack.

    7/ The concept of a feint is simple—a military force either is seen as preparing to attack a given location, or actually conducts an attack, for the purpose of deceiving an opponent into committing resources in response to the perceived or actual actions.

    8/ The use of the feint played a major role in Desert Storm, where Marine Amphibious forces threatened the Kuwaiti coast, forcing Iraq to defend against an attack that never came, and where the 1st Cavalry Division actually attacked Wadi Al Batin to pin down the Republican Guard.

    9/ The Russians made extensive use of the feint in Ukraine, with Amphibious forces off Odessa freezing Ukrainian forces there, and a major feint attack toward Kiev compelling Ukraine to reinforce their forces there. Ukraine was never able to reinforce their forces in the east.

    10/ Fixing operations were also critical. Ukraine had assembled some 60,000-100,000 troops in the east, opposite Donbas. Russia carried out a broad fixing attack designed to keep these forces fully engaged and unable to maneuver in respect to other Russian operations.

    11/ During Desert Storm, two Marine Divisions were ordered to carry out similar fixing attacks against Iraqi forces deployed along the Kuwaiti-Saudi border, tying down significant numbers of men and material that could not be used to counter the main US attack out west.

    12/ The Russian fixing attack pinned the main Ukrainian concentration of forces in the east, and drove them away from Mariupol, which was invested and reduced. Supporting operations out of Crimea against Kherson expanded the Russian land bridge. This phase is now complete.

    13/ Russia also engaged in a campaign of strategic deep attack designed to disrupt and destroy Ukrainian logistics, command & control, and air power and long-range fire support. Ukraine is running out of fuel and ammo, cannot coordinate maneuver, and has no meaningful Air Force.

    14/ Russia is redeploying some of its premier units from where they had been engaged in feint operations in northern Kiev to where they can support the next phase of the operation, namely the liberation of the Donbas and the destruction of the main Ukrainian force in the east.

    15/ This is classic maneuver warfare. Russia will now hold Ukraine in the north and south while its main forces, reinforced by the northern units, Marines, and forces freed up by the capture of Mariupol, seek to envelope and destroy 60,000 Ukrainian forces in the east.

    16/ This is Big Arrow War at its finest, something Americans used to know but forgot in the deserts and mountains of Afghanistan and Iraq. It also explains how 200,000 Russians have been able to defeat 600,000 Ukrainians. Thus ends the primer on maneuver warfare, Russian style.

    • Replies: @sudden death
  78. @John Johnson

    No.

    Anti Russian dogma is hideous and stupid. The demise of Soviet communism and the appearance of a far freer Russia is fabulous. Humanity is winning you idiots.

    I am not a Russian asset. I am a moose asset.

  79. @Mr. Hack

    I never inferred nor stated that Trump should start a war

    Once is an innocent mistake, twice a misuse of the word. You mean implied not inferred.

    https://www.vocabulary.com/articles/chooseyourwords/imply-infer/

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
  80. Dmitry says:
    @utu

    Russia have better anti-missile system

    There is a system from the late Cold War (like a different idea than Reagan’s “Star Wars”), to fire nuclear weapons above Moscow, to block intercontinental ballistic missiles. Nuclear weapons would explode to destroy or move the ICBM from its destination.

    The concept probably hasn’t been tested except in the conceptual level, but it claimed it could succeed if 2 ICBMs are fired at Moscow. (But of course, in nuclear war, there will probably be dozens of ICBMs, with MIRV).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ABM-1_Galosh
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A-135_anti-ballistic_missile_system

    The USSR had probably more verifiable advantage compared to the USA, was the “passive defense” for civilians.

    In Soviet times, there was a gasmask available distribution for every citizen (to survive fallout). (However, this doesn’t exist today).

    Moscow also has fallout shelters located in (at least some older) metro stations. This has even independent air and walls which raise to seal the station. There is a video report about this system.

  81. A123 says: • Website
    @Mr. Hack

    Mr. Troll,

    Why are you ducking the question?

    Your accusations depend on your definition of bravery and your definition of cowardice.

    Based on your inarticulate posting, this is the best possible analysis of you position:

    — Cowardice = Sending potentially useful arms to Ukraine.
    — Bravery = Adding a tiny number of planes unlikely to be useful.

    If this is not an accurate grasp of your near illiterate deployment of the English language. Please provide explicit, unambiguous definitions for bravery and cowardice in terms of *exact* count and types of material that needs to be delivered to Zelensky before he loses.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  82. Beckow says:
    @German_reader

    You are right, sorry…I typed w/out much reflection…It happens when one lives in a cupboard :). But there is difference between EU and NATO: with some exceptions (Poland, Lithuania) support for joining NATO in East-Central Europe was low: 30-40%. Then EU made it clear that there will be no EU without first NATO and that moved things along. In effect a blackmail.

    With Ukraine it is similar: Russia never objected to Ukraine in EU, they simply said there would be economic consequences since one can’t have open trading borders with both. EU was the one that didn’t want Ukraine – and still doesn’t. Russia objected to NATO – West intentionally confuses it for propaganda.

    If Kiev waits for acceptable terms they will lose people-assets and likely worsen their military situation. They are not winning and time is not on their side. It is likely that as Russia invests more in the fighting – and correspondingly has more losses – they will want to get more. The Black See coast is very tempting. You only fight a grinding attrition war if you can eventually win or get a stalemate. Based on Russia’s situation they will not settle for less. More fighting makes the eventual deal worse for Kiev. The best deal they could have gotten on the eve of the war, but that opportunity is gone.

    ‘utu’ has become totally unhinged. He is old and knows how this will turn out, so seethes with anger. But we get to see a real example of how societies descend into paranoid madness. The 20th century explained in front of our eyes, we have not moved too far from out grandparents.

  83. Mr. Hack says:
    @A123

    Now, this is better.

    — Cowardice = not sending potentially useful arms to Ukraine.
    — Bravery = Adding a sufficient (30 – 50) number of planes likely to be useful.

    However, I don’t feel that providing an opinion contrary to your own, in any way makes me a troll. Keep coping.

    • Replies: @A123
  84. Dmitry says:
    @Beckow

    mells a business

    Lol I would guess most commercial materialist oriented personalities in Armenia, who are not connected to the political class, will have emigrated to Glendale, or at least Moscow nowadays. Cutting a little money changing currency in Erevan or Gyumri does not seem such a great opportunity by comparison.

    Yevardian seems more interested in secularized cultural, coffee house, branch of the Armenian society. He starts to write more confidently, when writing about literary criticism, Dostoevsky, Basque history. Although unusual to be with us, as those kind of people seem very politically liberal on average.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  85. @German_reader

    Haven’t you read what utu said to me about nuclear war?

  86. New levels of RussoCope have been reached, so time for another list of absurdly cringe and often contradictory Russbot claims:

    1. 4 of our 5 axes of advance are defeated, but that is just as planned as they were actually all feints.

    2. Rather than using our strengths against Ukrainian weaknesses, as is the normal manouevrist approach, we cleverly turned this on its head and used our weaknesses against Ukrainian strengths. This is Russian style.

    3. We launched the biggest and highest casualty war in Europe since WW2 in order to slightly expand the territory we already de facto controlled. At least until we have to revise our past aim next week.

    4. We have demilitarised Ukraine. Its forces are bigger, better equipped and with higher morale than when the war started, but we have shot missiles at a lot of barracks.

    5. Something about “biolabs.” Literally defined as laboratories which deal with biological issues, like PCR tests.

    6. We have hypersonic missile, so it doesn’t matter that we are second best military in Ukraine. We would still easily beat NATO!

    7. Something about Ukraine developing nukes.

    8. Something about Azov, despite the invasion making them heroes.

    9. We have crushed Ukrainian nationalism.

    10. Our Potemkin exchange rate shows how great our completely non-primitive farming and resource extraction economy is.

    11. We never invaded.

    12. We would invade again.

    13. Ukraine deserved it.

    14. We have very few casualties.

    15. India didn’t actively sanction us, nor did Congo.

    16. Ukrainian rightists won’t accept the peace deal that everyone thinks humiliates Russia, so Ukraine will have civil war, and then we will take all of Ukraine.

    17. Ukrainian civillians will rebel when they find out real costs of war.

    18. Neighbours of Ukraine will take advantage of Ukrainian weakness and will pick back up old conflicts to Ukraine’s disadvantage.

    19. Numbers 16, 17 and 18 aren’t just projections of our own fears!

    20. We are happy that our best and brightest have run away.

    21. Cauldron encirclement cauldron encirclement pocket deep war encirclement master Russian tactics is coming really soon.

    22. The US Dollar system is over.

    23. But what about Western censorship?

    24. But what about people not liking Russians after our invasion?

    25. The war has just started. We always wanted a war of attrition with our supposedly brand spanking new professional army.

    26. Russia has done amazingly well. We had so much less manpower. We have truly, by our advances only being defeated so far, rather than routed, won a David versus Goliath victory against hegemon Ukraine.

    27. We’re going to start trying real soon.

    28. No really, we were just letting the Ukrainians win.

    29. We’ve been winning all of this time. Can’t you see that we are now at 10% of Ukraine’s territory, and even two weeks ago, were at 15%. This is tremendous.

    30. We are not retreating. We are making tactical advances.

    31. We’re going to keep the nuclear power stations in Ukrainian territory and own the Ukrainians’ electricity market.

    32. The Chinese didn’t sanction us. They are our greatest friends.

    • Agree: sudden death, AP
    • Disagree: Badger Down, RadicalCenter
    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @Mr. Hack
  87. A123 says: • Website
    @Mr. Hack

    You are the one with a coping problem. You also have a counting problem.
    ___

    Now that you have given exact numbers… Let us drill down on them. Your desired number of planes is 50 — Where are you going to get you “bravery” MiG-29’s?

    Poland has less than 30 operational MiG 29A. Bulgaria and Slovakia have about 10 each. Even if you could sweep up every operational plane that is less than 50. If you have heard higher numbers, you are trying to include “down checked” aircraft being cannibalized for spare parts.

    You are clearly numerically challenged. Why do you want things that are impossible?
    ____

    As a side question. Why do you think a limited number of fighters would be long-term helpful versus Russia?

    It might buy a little time for Zelensky to negotiate, but it does not seem to strategically change the balance of power. Russia’s Air Force would still be many times larger (higher count & more modern) than Ukraine’s AF if 30 (or even 50) used fighters were added to their service.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  88. @Blinky Bill

    some 600,000 defenders (or more).

    …and goes straight to the garbage box with such numerical analitics, lol

  89. Aedib says:
    @Beckow

    The market seems to believe more on Peskov words than on Ursula words.

    https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1508780448608137224/photo/2

  90. Aedib says:

    Mariupol summary.
    – The flag of Donetsk People Republic flies in the city.
    – 5000 ukronazis dead. 5,000 captured.
    – Mopping operations in some buildings of the city.
    – Some Azovites hide in the Azovstal steel factory. They will be supressed by hunger.
    – Kadirov and Pushilin in the city.
    – Civilians come out of the cellars.
    – Many coincident testimonies about the atrocities committed by the Nazis of the Azov battalion against civilians.
    – The city was badly damaged but there is relief in the people as the news about the suppression of the Azov Battalion spreads.

    • Replies: @AP
  91. Ron Unz says:
    @Dmitry

    From all I read, intercontinental ballistic missiles cannot be intercepted by current missile defense, well at least with MIRV (Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicle).

    Of course not. I’m not talking about nuclear ICBMs but instead conventional hypersonics. As Ritter points out, the fact that they’re maneuverable means that they can’t be intercepted by standard anti-missile defenses.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Dmitry
  92. @German_reader

    At least Germany is rich, so you can wipe your tears in eurobills. Meanwhile:

    The GDP of Somalia but the cultural mores of coastal America.

    • LOL: Barbarossa
  93. Wokechoke says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    It’s time to surrender in Ukraine.

    • Replies: @Aedib
    , @LatW
  94. Wokechoke says:
    @John Johnson

    WN are split on this question. Besides, legally speaking if you go to fight for either state you are giving yourself a legal problem.

  95. Wokechoke says:
    @Ron Unz

    The Ukrainians have acted insane with Russia. They should have appeased the stronger state.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
  96. Mr. Hack says:
    @A123

    You also have a counting problem…You are clearly numerically challenged. Why do you want things that are impossible?

    I CLEARLY WROTE: Adding a sufficient (30 – 50) number of planes likely to be useful.

    No need to go berserk and call me “numerically challenged” when it’s clearly you who are inept at juggling numbers (I won’t even try to embarrass you and bring up that your reading comprehension skills seem to be sub par too). 🙂

    • Replies: @A123
  97. A123 says: • Website
    @Ron Unz

    conventional hypersonics. As Ritter points out, the fact that they’re maneuverable means that they can’t be intercepted by standard anti-missile defenses.

    The problem with this type of overstatement is that standard anti-missile defenses can work, though less effectively. Hypersonic is an incremental improvement, not a strategic battlefield change.

    One does not want to be trapped by understatement either. Existing anti-missile defenses will need more time & distance to intercept. Flattop super carriers will have to operate further away from their targets. This slows cycle time, requires more mid air refueling, and is inconvenient in any number of ways.

    China is still working on their TYPE-003 & -004 super carrier efforts which will first sail after the U.S. has their own hypersonic missiles. Clearly the PLA does not believe the hyped message they are trying to push.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  98. A123 says: • Website
    @Mr. Hack

    I am sorry that you have numeracy & linguistic issues.

    Please, explain how YOU can get to YOUR number of 50 when that exceeds the maximum number of operable MiG-29A’s that are potentially available.

    Even if you could get your mythical “‘Bravery 50” it would make no long term difference. So, not particularly “brave” by any objective standard.

    We all understand that you are in ultranationalistic denial because your side is losing. However, you do not need to compound that clear desperation by pushing fiction. It is embarrassing *copium* on your part.

    PEACE 😇

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  99. Ron Unz says:
    @A123

    The problem with this type of overstatement is that standard anti-missile defenses can work, though less effectively. Hypersonic is an incremental improvement, not a strategic battlefield change.

    I’m absolutely no military expert on these technical issues. But Ritter’s persuasive point was that all existing anti-missile defenses are based upon locking onto a fixed trajectory as they approach the target. If hypersonics are maneuvering, those methods can’t be used so the missiles can’t be intercepted.

    Presumably, at some point better interception technologies can be developed. But probably not for some time.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Wokechoke
  100. LatW says:
    @German_reader

    The planes are merely a symbolic issue anyway, the number of MiGs from Eastern EU states that could be given away can’t be that high

    By the way, there was some talk about the Warsaw Pact weapons that the Federal Germany took over from GDR. Some of those may even have been constructed by Ukrainians back in the day. The Ukrainians inquired about those weapons. But Germany apparently did an inventory and said there was very little left of use.

    The Ukrainian Air Force has actually been very efficient. They are taking out Russian Su’s in respectable numbers. There is a limited number of pilots Russia possesses (each pilot takes like \$8M and years to get trained & prepared). If it wasn’t for the Ukrainian Air Force (including the famous Ghost of Kyiv, who apparently was real), much more damage would probably have been inflicted by Russia. So more planes for Ukraine definitely would’ve helped (potentially changed the course of the war in Ukraine’s favor even earlier, although the turn of March 25 has been sensational as it is).

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @German_reader
  101. Mr. Hack says:
    @A123

    I said “30 – 50” indicating a range. 30 being on the low side that even you admit that might be possible. 30 would be helpful for now, perhaps more later. Get it, now?

    • Replies: @A123
  102. nickels says:

    So Russia is beaten, then?
    It is going to wipe up the blood of its patriots and return the territory to the faggots in Ukraine?

    Well, at least they have NATO as guarantors.

    This whole thing is a huge head fake or Putin has just regime changed himself and the Faggot World Order won.

  103. Beckow says:
    @Dmitry

    …little money changing currency in Erevan or Gyumri does not seem such a great opportunity by comparison.

    Sure, it is no big deal for \$100k. But imagine the volume a sharp intermediary could get here, 25 basis points for billion euros pays for a lot of Turkish coffee. Even Dostoevsky would jump on it.

    We have two sides that can’t give in publicly, but both want the business to continue. So you go through intermediaries, it is not that hard.

    In the short run Russia will muddle the process, delay and wait. In the long run EU will pay in rubles. EU stupidly shot itself in the foot by objecting “but, contracts“, hiding behind a temporary reason. As the current contracts end – some are ending later this year – they will quietly switch to rubles. On the spot market there are no contracts – a gold mine for middlemen. The ruble will climb and prices will be higher.

    Both sides will claim that they prevailed. After all it is about who can preen and strut as a victor. Silly world.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  104. A123 says: • Website
    @Mr. Hack

    I get that you stated the number 50. A number in a range is still part of that range. Now you need to:

    — Defend the number 50 that you introduced to the conversation.
    — Or, admit error and withdraw it.

    Linguistic prevarication will not help your desperate attempts at evading what you previously stated. Number do not give you that option.

    Please stop with the *copium* and explain YOUR number that YOU introduced to the conversation. Or, do you lack the linguistic capability to understand ?

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  105. AP says:
    @A123

    You assumption that Trump would start a war with Russia is quite detached from Trump’s actual record.

    Of course Trump would not start a war with Russia. He would just make Russia bleed more in its invasion of Ukraine.

    Trump started giving Ukraine lethal weapons after Obama/Biden refused to do so. Trump sanctioned Nordstream despite Germany’s howls; Biden removed those sanctions. Trump demanded that European countries pour more money into their militaries, Biden and Obama didn’t.

    Biden seems to have woken up to Russia when it was already clear that Putin would invade due to Biden’s weakness and started pouring in weapons, but has refused to provide MIGs.

  106. AP says:
    @German_reader

    Planes would not be central to Ukraine’s defenses but it would be good to replace those that had been lost.

    • Replies: @216
  107. songbird says:
    @Alfa158

    The destroyer captain survived the war and was interviewed by reporters when JFK was President. As I recall it was kind of funny, they breathlessly asked him to recount the story and the captain was somewhat nonplussed. He basically just said “uh, well we were on patrol, and we ran over a boat and were in a hurry so we didn’t stop”. “Are you happy you didn’t inadvertently kill the man who would become President of the US?” “Yeah sure, whatever”.

    One of the funniest things that I ever heard was that clip from the Arab Spring, where an American reporter keeps asking a street protester what he thinks of Obama. Probably was in Cairo.

  108. 216 says: • Website
    @songbird

    How fast could an additional gas pipeline be built from Israel?

    • Replies: @songbird
  109. 216 says: • Website
    @AP

    In 67/73 air superiority was the key to IDF victories over Arab opponents which greatly outnumbered them. Russia hasn’t gone to full mobilization of reserves, but largely controls the air. Setbacks on the ground appear linked to a smaller number of infantry than is required (hello Rumsfeld).

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  110. songbird says:
    @Beckow

    Zelenksy called on Arab countries to supply more oil and gas to Europe. No wait – that was last Saturday. Today, he campaigned for a quick transition to green energy.

    • LOL: Aedib
    • Replies: @Beckow
  111. Wokechoke says:
    @216

    They have their landbridge now. The Kiev front was a FUSAG.

  112. Aedib says:
    @Wokechoke

    No. Let the big West Donbass cauldron boil. Azovites in the Mariupol cauldron have already been cooked.

  113. LatW says:
    @Wokechoke

    It’s time to surrender in Ukraine.

    It is against the Laws of Nature to surrender when you’re gaining momentum and starting a counterstrike. On the contrary – now is the time to pound harder. Keep pounding in all directions. More men are coming.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  114. Dmitry says:
    @Ron Unz

    With conventional warheads, perhaps it could be effective in ship war.

    In the land war, though, missiles with conventional warheads do not cause much destruction relative for their cost. Things like airbases, can repair runways within a few hours of the missile attack.

    If you think about long-range missile with conventional warhead, most of the weight is for the energy of its propulsion to target. Iskander tactical ballistic missile is 4000 kg, but its warhead is only up to maximum 700kg. (https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/ss-26-2/), with a cost of tens of millions dollars per missile. Because of the cost, the number of missiles available is low. They also only destroy fixed targets.

    These systems become transformational, with tactical nuclear warheads. Iskander deployed in Kaliningrad, has tactical nuclear warheads.

    I’m not an expert, but this is just my amateur reasoning.

    In terms of navy conflict, then a single missile, can destroy a ship. This happened last week, when Ukrainian Tochka missile destroyed “Saratov” landing ship.

    So, a new kind of cruise missile (like hypersonic cruise missile), with conventional warhead, probably changes the balance of power in navy war much more if it cannot be intercepted by navy air defense.

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  115. songbird says:
    @216

    From what I heard, it would be difficult to get the different countries involved to agree. Wouldn’t it need to involve the two sides on Cyprus or something?

    • Replies: @A123
  116. A123 says: • Website
    @Ron Unz

    Ritter’s persuasive point was that all existing anti-missile defenses are based upon locking onto a fixed trajectory as they approach the target. If hypersonics are maneuvering, those methods can’t be used so the missiles can’t be intercepted.

    The concept is not as persuasive as it may first appear.

    Longer range solutions use onboard detection to continuously update target location. This is necessary against potential diversions such as decoys or other countermeasures. Maneuvering makes the intercept harder, but not conceptually different. Instead of a “double tap” to completely box the inbound missile it could require a “triple tap” with three interceptors. There are only so many evasion options available.

    At short range, how much can a extremely high speed system maneuver when approaching a fixed target before it misses? Physics is a cruel mistress. Late stage maneuver still leaves the incoming weapon in a similar intercept location vis-a-vis less maneuverable options.
    ___

    Again, I do not want to underestimate the hypersonic concept.

    Dealing with such a weapon is incrementally more difficult. It requires a super carrier position that is further back from its potential targets and chews up more interceptors per inbound. It is a genuine issue of tactical & usage doctrine changes that are undesirable for a carrier Task Force. However, while expensive and logistically challenging, hypersonic weapons are not inherently a game changer.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  117. AP says:
    @Aedib

    Wasn’t it taken two days ago? Or the 24th? I wouldn’t be surprised if today was the day, but who knows?

    Many coincident testimonies about the atrocities committed by the Nazis of the Azov battalion against civilians

    I’m sure people will say all sorts of things that armed Russians want to hear.

    Kadirov and Pushilin in the city.

    Not really:

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @Aedib
  118. Mikhail says: • Website

    Nice Bod, Wrong Message

    Re: Below Tweet

    Marco Rubio noted the obvious about Russia being different from some other countries where no fly zones have been implemented.

    After years of seeking a peaceable option, Russia established a no-fly zone in Ukraine with hypersonic missiles. Not worth risking WW III to challenge it. Best to seek a settlement ASAP, if the true intent is to reduce deaths. Looking ahead, note what the eventual settlement will likely entail, relative to how if could’ve been earlier achieved.

    Otherwise, a great workout. On that unit, I’m up to 20 minutes straight at level 21 (out of a 25-level max) on manual.

  119. A123 says: • Website
    @songbird

    From what I heard, it would be difficult to get the different countries ed to agree. Wouldn’t it need to involve the two sides on Cyprus or something?

    The illegal Muslim occupiers in Cyprus are recognized by a single country, Turkey. The madness that is Erdogan has badly over reached on multiple fronts. Turkey is totally dependent on energy imports and if they declare “pipelines are legitimate targets” the ones needed for Turkey’s economy will be blown up.

    EastMed is technically quite challenging. This will limit how quickly it can be completed rather than political issues.
    ___

    BalticPipe 1 will complete this year, though it is relatively small. It is a proof of concept for Baltic 2, 3, etc. Gearing up Norwegian production and building using proven technology can meet Northern European natural gas needs in a time efficient manner.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @216
  120. Mikhail says:

    The best Russia-Ukraine analytical shows:

    https://america.cgtn.com/2022/03/26/the-heat-ukraine-crisis-10

    https://america.cgtn.com/2022/03/29/the-heat-russia-ukraine-conflict-2

    Max Blumenthal said that a NY area discussion featuring himself, Scott Horton, Julia Ioffe and Clint Watts was abruptly cancelled. Ioffe and Watts would’ve been intellectually demolished. It’s not a crackpot conspiracy theory to believe that the establishment at large, is intentionally restricting a more accurate reporting and analysis of the Russia-Ukraine situation.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1503461767040618506

    • Thanks: Thulean Friend
  121. Dmitry says:
    @Beckow

    If the sanctions do not go and sanctions are (currently) very leaky, then what happens is that there is more “transaction cost”.

    This will be the same with the consumer goods. Kadyrov will still import Maybachs, but they go from Germany to somewhere like Armenia, and then Armenia to Russia, and so you are probably right that countries like Armenia could profit with a transaction cost.

    All the luxury products will become more “high status”, as the price increases. If Nike and Adidas really freeze in the long term, they will become more fashionable and high status, than they already are. When I was a child, you were already the cool kids in school, although in recent years there was a lot of brand deflation.

    In Soviet times, Levi jeans, were viewed like real luxury products, because of the ban on import.

    Although expensive European companies were already doing this in Russian market, simply by raising the price a lot. It’s famous that all luxury products, whether Dior handbags, or just Miele dishwasher, cost a lot more in Russia, because the companies know the customers almost desire higher prices to limit “European prestige” to narrower circles.

    Japan luxury cars are also being restricted now (https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5282541) so probably Lexus imported via e.g. Armenia will attain increasingly prestigious perceptions with local bourgeoisie, other things equal.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  122. Mr. Hack says:
    @A123

    50 would be 20 planes greater than 30. Planes could be gathered together from Poland, Bulgaria and Slovakia as you point out (30+10+10). Why would it be better? More planes to defend Ukraine’s skys from bombs that are falling on civilian enclaves.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
  123. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Mr. Hack

    You really don’t think they’d get bombed before ever being used in battle? How many Kiev regime planes are flying right now? We know the story about that ghost guy shooting down Russian planes.

    • Replies: @A123
  124. Aedib says:
    @AP

    That was in Russia before he entered into former Ukraine. That’s yesterday

    I know you are waiting Von Manstein counter attack from Volnovakha but it will not happen. Remaining Azovites will just starve in Azovstal.

  125. Dmitry says:

    Here are interesting historical documents I found you can read freely on Google books – classic versions of “Life Magazine” (1883 to 1972).

    In relation to the discussion about Vietnam War in the Oliver Stone thread.

    Here is a copy of the famous Life Magazine about the weekly deaths in the war in 1969 (over 200 deaths of American soldiers), while the president was Richard Nixon.

    https://books.google.com/books?id=pE8EAAAAMBAJ&printsec=frontcover&hl=ru

    The articles are quite interesting to read there. But the majority of “Life Magazine” is really advertising, for cigarettes and expensive liquor (apparently spending habits the 1960s American bourgeoisie, reflect decadent ways to use your money to enjoy life without too much conscience about health).

  126. Beckow says:
    @songbird

    Hmm…I can imagine Zelensky’s popularity in the Arab street: he loves the West, gets all the sympathy for a tiny fraction of suffering that Palestinians have endured, let’s not forget he is a … I am sure everyone in the Arab world knows it. They will send something, I doubt they are cheering him on…

  127. 216 says: • Website
    @A123

    EastMed is technically quite challenging. This will limit how quickly it can be completed rather than political issues.

    It was my understanding that the Biden Usurpation ended it, but it could be quickly revived and given priority access on material if the US used the “Defense Production Act”.

    The other alternative is a pipeline from Nigeria, which requires even more political collaboration in an even more unstable region.

    • Replies: @A123
  128. @songbird

    Coastal desert, dry mountains, high-plain badlands, wet mountains, Amazon jungle. And 35m people.

  129. Wokechoke says:
    @LatW

    10,000 captives in Mariupol. The Sloviansk pocket awaits. 35,000 troops to be bagged.

    • Replies: @Aedib
  130. Wokechoke says:
    @Ron Unz

    Hypersonic would be for fleet actions.

  131. A123 says: • Website
    @Mikhail

    He has a math problem and is so trapped by desperation he cannot make even a simple correction. The sum (less than 30 +10+ 10) is less than his 50.

    I also asked him about how useful his “Bravery 50” would be against a vastly superior Russian Air Force. He declined to answer.

    His precious Azov battalion as fallen and Zelensky has no forces capable of a counter offensive across the open ground in South Eastern Ukraine. That territory is permanently gone.

    Sadly, he is a case of massive *copium* overwhelming common sense. I have been trying to force him to stop linguistic evasiveness and face the truth, but it appears to be futile. His ultra nationalistic self delusion simply cannot be reasoned with.

    *shrug*

    We do what we can, but I am not about to place myself in the role of Sisyphus trying to push the Boulder of Hack uphill to the pinnacle of Logic. The Boulder of Hack willingly chooses the Pit of Irrational Copium.

    PEACE 😇

    [MORE]

    P.S. Could I be accidentally helping Hack?

    • Agree: Aedib
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  132. Wokechoke says:
    @AP

    Sammy Davis Junior Jr, Seeing Eye Bitch.

  133. Aedib says:
    @Wokechoke

    Actually, around 60K between Marinka and Izyum (before the bombardments). The cauldron is not closed yet but they can’t retreat by just walking.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  134. songbird says:

    @Badger Down

    Looking at a climatological map of Peru is really eye-opening. The temperate area is a relatively narrow sliver, a big part of the country is rated as polar tundra.

    I’ve always wondered how the Inca were able to have such a large empire, compared to the Greeks who were disunited and fighting against each other for so long, until Phillip II was using phalanxes against them.

    But it seems to make sense, when you look at the climate. Looks relatively easy to defend – though I believe they did have hostile contact with jungle tribes, who had pointy teeth. That probably made it easier to consolidate, under one political system, since it is just like one long line, going north and south.

  135. A123 says: • Website
    @216

    EastMed is technically quite challenging. This will limit how quickly it can be completed rather than political issues.

    It was my understanding that the Biden Usurpation ended it, but it could be quickly revived and given priority access on material if the US used the “Defense Production Act”.

    EastMed was slowed not stopped by the ineffectual Not-The-President Biden. Everyone serious realizes that his administration has no credibility or long term endurance. Simply getting out of the way would be enough to resume its former pace. No need of anything as enthusiastic as the DPA.

    PEACE 😇

  136. songbird says:
    @German_reader

    On twitter, Christopher Rufo recently posted a clip of a Disney executive producer, who appeared to be a black lesbo, saying her team has implemented a “not-at-all-secret gay agenda” and is regularly “adding queerness” to children’s programming.

    • Replies: @A123
  137. A123 says: • Website

    I need to composite a new 😁Open Thread Humor😂 collection…

    While you wait, I give you this tribute to Pope Francis…

    Jesus would not wear the hat from the previous post…

    PEACE 😇

     

  138. songbird says:
    @A123

    IIRC, Bob Iger introduced some sort of gay day, nearly 20 years ago. But I suppose it must be more than one day now.
    _________
    BTW, is Will Smith gay? I hadn’t realized that he was supposed to be some super cuck.

    • Replies: @A123
  139. Ron Unz says:
    @Dmitry

    In the land war, though, missiles with conventional warheads do not cause much destruction relative for their cost. Things like airbases, can repair runways within a few hours of the missile attack.

    For decades, America has typically employed salvos of cruise missiles “to send a message.” Probably these attacks have usually been tactically cost-ineffective, e.g. blowing up that aspirin factory in Sudan, but surely very useful in intimidating other countries.

    However, based upon more recent Syrian cases, I think Russian air defenses can now shoot them down pretty easily. I’d assume that Russian air defenses in their own country and Ukraine would be vastly more effective at the same thing.

    Similarly, except if targeting capital ships like carriers, Russian hypersonic attacks probably would be cost-ineffective tactically but perhaps very useful strategically. For example, blowing up that base with 30 (or maybe 200) foreign fighters plus (allegedly) lots of American and British intelligence officers may have really “sent a message” to NATO.

    Totally destroying the NATO HQ in Brussels at a pre-specified time would probably send a vastly more powerful message, potentially worth tens of billions of dollars of strategic impact. So it might be highly cost-effective even if it required a full salvo of hypersonics, costing many, many millions of dollars.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @Dmitry
  140. Wokechoke says:
    @Ron Unz

    This will be a medieval war in one interesting respect. Lots of powerful players and officers getting killed or captured in proportion to lower ranks.

    It’s been interesting to see the Russians do war in Ukraine. Lot’s of driving around in the north while they captured the south. Western media did its bit to distract itself from the Landbridge Scenario.

  141. Ron Unz says:
    @A123

    Longer range solutions use onboard detection to continuously update target location. This is necessary against potential diversions such as decoys or other countermeasures…At short range, how much can a extremely high speed system maneuver when approaching a fixed target before it misses?…However, while expensive and logistically challenging, hypersonic weapons are not inherently a game changer.

    All your points are perfectly valid. It’s entirely an engineering/physics/technical issue. Maybe hypersonics are currently unstoppable but that will change as anti-missile defenses improve.

    I don’t have the technical expertise to evaluate these issues, nor I suspect do you or any of the other commenters on this thread. Scott Ritter seems to have pretty good technical expertise and probably has worked over the years with others of even greater expertise. He seems to think that as of right now, the Russian hypersonics are unstoppable. Maybe he’s entirely mistaken, but I’m just deferring to his judgment unless/until someone of seemingly comparable credibility says otherwise.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @Mikhail
    , @A123
  142. Wokechoke says:
    @Aedib

    It’ll be like Falaise.

    • Agree: LondonBob, Aedib
    • Replies: @Aedib
  143. Wokechoke says:
    @Ron Unz

    We can view Ukraine as a chess board.

    Hypersonic are like Bishops.

  144. A123 says: • Website
    @songbird

    is Will Smith gay? I hadn’t realized that he was supposed to be some super cuck.

    His wife *boinked* someone else while they were legally separated. That hardly scores as super cuck. Perhaps mildly so if he was not using the opportunity for his own *boink*.

    Much of the reputation is IMHO unfair. During his years as a rapper he offered up commercially interesting work about girls, cars, school, etc. Those using rap to espouse crime, drugs, and prostitution did not appreciate his lack of deviancy.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @songbird
  145. Mr. Hack says:
    @A123

    I hate to disagree with you but the sum of 30 + 10 +10 is not less than 50, but equals 50.

    I also asked him about how useful his “Bravery 50” would be against a vastly superior Russian Air Force. He declined to answer.

    I would expect that those flying these planes would do as well as the rest of the armed services, greatly outnumbered – bravely and spectacularly.

    His precious Azov battalion as fallen and Zelensky has no forces capable of a counter offensive across the open ground in South Eastern Ukraine. That territory is permanently gone.

    The Azov battalion is still fighting bravely in bombed out Mariupol (another good reason that Ukraine needs planes), and was involved in heroically defending Kharkiv today against your precious Russian military.

    Sadly, he is a case of massive *copium* overwhelming common sense. I have been trying to force him to stop linguistic evasiveness and face the truth,

    It’s a shame that you’ve decided to abandon the one that you’ve revered so much, Donald Trump, and now more than ever resemble more his antagonist Joe Biden, at least with respect to questions regarding the Ukrainian theater of war. This is the truth that you refuse to face and are infuriated that I’m willing to call you out on this one! And I’ll continue to call you out on this one!!

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  146. A123 says: • Website
    @Ron Unz

    It’s entirely an engineering/physics/technical issue.

    Scott Ritter seems to have pretty good technical expertise

    Maybe he’s entirely mistaken, but I’m just deferring to his judgment unless/until someone of seemingly comparable credibility says otherwise.

    You position is understandable, but there is a catch… How does the media grant “seemingly comparable credibility”?

    — Those who say “hypersonic” is unstoppable = audience
    — Those who say “hypersonic” is useless = audience
    — Those who say “hypersonic” is nuanced and merely incremental = near zero ratings

    It may not be an expression of intentional malice, but the “middle of the road” case is given short shrift. I am sure there are credible voices speaking to the ambiguity of hypersonic weaponry. What venue hosts ambiguity?

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  147. Wokechoke says:
    @Mr. Hack

    They’ve got their water back on, they got the Azov Sea, they have the EEZ in Black Sea…probably got the bulk of the Ukie army in the Kramatorsk pocket…Kiev will just die on the vine now.

    • Replies: @AP
  148. Ron Unz says:
    @A123

    It may not be an expression of intentional malice, but the “middle of the road” case is given short shrift. I am sure there are credible voices speaking to the ambiguity of hypersonic weaponry. What venue hosts ambiguity?

    Sure, but in keeping with my comment upthread, let’s avoid generalities and put the question in very concrete terms, using an example with potentially gigantic strategic impact.

    Suppose the Russians announced that they intended to destroy the NATO HQ tomorrow morning at 10am using a salvo of hypersonic missiles. Or maybe they decided to give NATO a full week’s advance notice to allow preparation of all possible defenses.

    Would NATO be able to protect its HQ? Based upon Ritter’s remarks, I don’t think so, but maybe some other military expert would have a different opinion.

    But if Ritter is correct and Russia can currently destroy any Western facility, no matter how well-defended, for merely a few million dollars worth of hypersonic missiles, I think Russia has gained a considerable degree of conventional military superiority.

    And assuming their hypersonics can similarly destroy our carriers, the cost-effectiveness ratio is probably something like 1000-to-1.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @A123
  149. Wokechoke says:
    @Ron Unz

    Ukraine is going to implode in a civil war after this invasion. The factions there don’t get on.

    • LOL: AP
  150. Wokechoke says:
    @Dmitry

    Ukraine will probably implode into civil war, in which smuggling will be easy.

  151. AP says:
    @Wokechoke

    Reminder:

    https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-crisis-in-ukraine-is-not-about-ukraine-its-about-germany/?showcomments#comment-5193865

    Wokechoke says:
    February 24, 2022 at 4:25 pm GMT • 1.1 months ago ↑
    @peterAUS

    Many airports have been seized. It’s already over.

    https://www.unz.com/article/us-foreign-policy-is-a-cruel-sport/#comment-5193887

    Wokechoke says:
    February 24, 2022 at 4:33 pm GMT • 1.1 months ago ↑
    @Corporal Punishment
    The current Leadership. They’ll flee. The Ukrainian state is disintegrating and evaporating. There’s too many Russians living in Ukraine already for a guerrilla war.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @Wokechoke
  152. songbird says:

    A pity they didn’t let Zelensky speak at the Oscars.

    • LOL: Mikhail
  153. songbird says:
    @A123

    Heard 4-5 since Tupac (though they were just dating back then), but I can’t confirm. There’s definitely some strange language in an interview about Jada coming from a family with open relationships.

    Maybe, it would go against the theory that Jada is his beard, that she was his second wife? But I’ll put it aside. Some would say that they are just practicing African norms.

    I grew up with Will being heavily promoted. I won’t say that I ever considered him a role model, but I think he was given a lot, and I was disappointed that he broke his vow about using clean language. For one thing, the Bad Boyz movies (I only recall the second) were filled with cuss words and very degenerate.

  154. Wokechoke says:
    @AP

    4 million people ran…

    • Replies: @AP
  155. @Mr. Hack

    How will posterity judge us 100 years from now for being so cowardly and sitting on the sidelines?

    As intelligent.

    (For once.)

  156. @LondonBob

    You’re either not capable to grasp the very concept of rationing or have some strange illusions about EU being reliant 100% on RF natgas.

    All kinds of mentioned issues are inevitable and baked in as temporary rationing will be done both for industries and home consumers in order to make those mentioned problems more or less manageable through coming this and next year in case of RF natgas embargo.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
  157. AP says:
    @Wokechoke

    Yes, mostly women and children left, as they should. That’s not what you predicted though 🙂

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  158. LondonBob says:
    @sudden death

    Rationing is neither possible nor desirable, economic collapse would quickly materialise.

    • Replies: @sudden death
  159. Wokechoke says:
    @AP

    Selective. I called the northern front a FUSAG. Look up that term. First United States Army Group. A fake inflatable threat.

  160. Wielgus says:
    @Wokechoke

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FY9sWBho6EI&ab_channel=%D0
    %AD%D0%9A%D0%A1%D0%A2%D0%A0%D0%95%D0%9D%D0%9D%D0%AB%D0%95%D0%9D%D0%9E%D0%92%D0%9E%D0%A1%D0%A2%D0%98

    Kadyrov saying there is no Ukrainian authority, they are merely puppets of the West.

  161. @LondonBob

    Rationing is just equivalent of fastening and result is not collapse, but leaning of a body. For some reasons you’re trying to pretend that rationing is complete refusal to use food&water instead of reducing amount of lavish intake temporary.

    It has been already done in 1972-73 and the end of the world didn’t come.

    • Replies: @sudden death
  162. A123 says: • Website
    @Ron Unz

    assuming their hypersonics can similarly destroy our carriers, the cost-effectiveness ratio is probably something like 1000-to-1.

    If hypersonics can easily destroy carriers — Why is China still building carriers that will not go to sea until after the U.S. has hypersonics?

    No side pursuing both hypersonic and carriers has discarded their carrier program. In fact no nation, with a strategic need for them, has abandoned carriers. That points out the likelihood that that hypersonics are not the unstoppable weapon that Ritter is personally cashing in on.

    PEACE 😇

  163. Wokechoke says:
    @A123

    The carrier is still useful as a mobile airfield.

  164. @Thulean Friend

    This deadline is approaching – fast. Who will blink first?

    I guess we have our answer.

    Russia won’t demand immediate switch to rouble gas payments, Kremlin says

    Russia will not immediately demand that buyers pay for its gas exports in roubles, the Kremlin said on Wednesday, promising a gradual shift and saying Russia should work on an idea to widen the list of its exports requiring rouble payment.

    Asked whether the payments should be in roubles starting from Thursday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “Absolutely no.”
    “As we discussed before, payments and delivery is a time consuming process … This does not mean that a tomorrow’s delivery should be paid (in roubles). From a technological point of view, this is a more prolonged process,” he said.

    • Thanks: songbird
    • LOL: sudden death
  165. Mr. Hack says:

    If you need a few laughs, read Pepe Escobar’s latest prognostication for Donbas’ future glory within a new Eurasian empire. Unfortunately, he doesn’t let his readers know that Russia is about to go bust. The ruble is worth about 1 us cent. I don’t think he’ll let my comment go (50/50) as he probably doesn’t want to have his illusions burst, so I’m reprinting it here:

    How Mariupol Will Become a Key Hub of Eurasia Integration” or “Parts of the factory complex are quite modern while some, decades old, are badly in need of upgrading, which Russian industry can certainly provide.”??

    Pepe, what have you been smoking lately? Don’t you realize that Azovstal, as the rest of bombed out Mariupol, has been totally devastated? With the ruble worth slightly more than 1 US cent, how and when is Putler going to rebuild this new Mecca? And the rest of you crackheads believe this wierd propaganda that Pepe is blurting out?
    Invaders have totally destroyed the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works which is part of the Metinvest Group based in Mariupol (Donetsk region).
    Mariupol deputy city mayor Serhii Orlov has told this to Forbes, Ukrainian News Agency reports.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    , @A123
    , @Mikhail
  166. SIMP simp says:

    Did Karlin said anything about how The Gathering of Russian Land is going since the war started?

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  167. Mr. Hack says:
    @SIMP simp

    Just look at the photo that I included just above to get an accurate idea of how Karlin’s Gathering of Russian Lands is going. 🙁

  168. Aedib says:
    @Wokechoke

    Or a mini Stalingrad.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  169. Wokechoke says:
    @Aedib

    Mini Barricade Factory. The issue for the Ukrainians in that city is there’s no Volga River at their back to resupply from.

  170. nickels says:

    Russia, on the one hand, says the west is ‘non agreement capable’, and, on the other, negotiates with them and scales back operations.
    Russia is losing. Russia will lose.

    Putin and Medvedev just need to go on live TV and perform gay sex acts already.
    Its over, Russia is f*ing up.

    Slavs write brilliant but sh*y code. The dont finish things. They leave all kinds of bugs.

    They are up against the Anglos, who are evil as night, but who plan every contingency, track down every flaw and fix every bug.

    Execution is 90% of success and evil is executing better than the good.

    pathetic:

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-will-not-demand-immediate-switch-gas-payments-roubles-kremlin-2022-03-30/

    • Replies: @Beckow
  171. Beckow says:
    @Mr. Hack

    That rusty piece of 1930’s industrial junk should be destroyed and rebuilt. Achmetov lacks insurance and will lose it. But the combination of energy, coal, metals and expertise in a great port will stay. Mariupol will be an industrial hub.

    You are missing the point of the article by Pepe: the economic activity that involves real stuff – making things and not just taking pictures of them – is moving to the Euro-Asian landmass. EU tried to be a part of it (Italy quite aggressively), but now they are out.

    The world economy will gradually split into two groups: Atlantic and Euro-Asian. They have strengths and weaknesses, but the cost advantage and resources are with the Euro-Asia. Finances are built on top of real economy, not vice-versa. So the money will also follow.

    The final switch of Russia to the Euro-Asian group has just happened. That will make it much harder for the Atlantic economies to dominate. That is what is going on and the smart people in the West know it, they see the catastrophic consequences of the realignment.

    As with bombing Dresden to dust in 1945 when it was clear that it would be in the Russian sphere, they are blowing things up in Ukraine on their way out. It won’t make much difference in the long run. Losing Russia and its resources is not a good thing for the West – it may be the worst thing that has happened to the West in 50 years.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  172. A123 says: • Website
    @Mr. Hack

    Pepe, what have you been smoking lately? Don’t you realize that Azovstal, as the rest of bombed out Mariupol, has been totally devastated?

    Azovstal was used as a fortified redoubt by the Azov combatants. As such, it was blasted fairly thoroughly. Little can be done about that.

    Describing all of Mariupol as “bombed out” is over reach. Knowing that they were going to own the reconstruction key pieces of infrastructure, such as water supply, were avoided as much as possible. The key questions become:

    — How much damage did the losing Azovs do before they were defeated?
    — How much will locals blame the losers for the damage they caused?

    Success on these questions requires Russia to act quickly on beginning reconstruction. It is yet to be decided if they will Win The Peace. If Russia is seen as rescuing the people from the hated Azov, they have a good chance at desirable long term outcomes.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  173. Beckow says:
    @nickels

    Maybe they execute in a different way. The West uses threats and is focused and self-serving. Russia lets the situation evolve to its benefit, they don’t threaten, they let the punishment speak for itself. The timing is the least important part of any project or initiative. People in the West simply don’t understand it, they live hurried lives and assume that it is always now or never. Not at all.

    I said a few days ago that Russia would obviously delay. They received a lame EU response “but contracts” that gave them all they needed. The contracts are ending – some later this year – and spot market has no contracts. Russia got the principle of eventually billing in rubles accepted – they will enforce it at the right time.

    The real question is whether EU can function without Russia’s energy and other resources. To pay more for less means a drop in living standards no matter how Brussels spins it. In any commodity market the lowest-cost producer has the ultimate power. In this case it is Russia, they can always undercut the much more expensive alternatives like LNG. EU will end up paying in rubles.

    This is a process that takes time. Don’t go for PR, pay attention to substance.

  174. songbird says:

    It was pretty weird, when they chanted “gay” at the Oscars in opposition to DeSantis. (I did not watch, but saw the clip.)

    I suppose Hollywood has always been rotten at the top, but I wonder how outwardly different it would be, if there were morality clauses that were enforced.

  175. @A123

    There is no guarantee that the US will achieve hypersonics. After all they used Russia Soyuz to fly to the space station until recently and I doubt Russians will allow them to use their hypersonic missiles to load their load as they did with Soyuz. And presumably China does not plan a confrontation with Russia the hypersonic superpower.

  176. A123 says: • Website

    There is no guarantee that the US will achieve hypersonics.

    The U.S. is already well on its way to hypersonics.

    After all they used Russia Soyuz to fly to the space station until recently

    Using obsolete Russian and technology to fly to an obsolete space station… That is a cost efficient option to squeeze the final bits of potential gain out of a terminating program.

    PEACE 😇

  177. Wokechoke says:
    @A123

    It’s quite possible they have a kit factory ready to move in. The extended area north of Mariupol will be quickly turned into a redoubt of cement and steel. Brand new housing etc. Ships to build too.

    • Replies: @A123
  178. A123 says: • Website
    @Wokechoke

    It’s quite possible they have a kit factory ready to move in. The extended area north of Mariupol will be quickly turned into a redoubt of cement and steel.

    This seems overly optimistic.

    Quickly restoring food, water, sewer, and electricity to the bulk of the city are the top priorities. Industrial development with the associated jobs is likely to wait until later.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  179. Aedib says:

    Basurin confirms previous estimations of 10K Ukrainian loses in Mariupol (5K KIA + 5K WIA). Around 4K still trying to fight plus some ones filtered through the perimeter.

  180. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Mr. Hack

    Re: https://www.unz.com/pescobar/how-mariupol-will-become-a-key-hub-of-eurasia-integration/

    Makes sense on the author’s premise that Mariupol’s development will include China.

    Keep in mind how Grozny and the rest of Chechnya has been rebuilt, noting its current relationship with Russia and detachment to Ukraine.

    Things can change relatively (in historical terms) quick. In time, more people might very well see Zelensky as the figurehead that unnecessarily led to more deaths than what could’ve otherwise occurred.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  181. Wokechoke says:
    @Aedib

    I estimated around 15,000. Three weak divisions or three strong brigades. Something like the loss of three Roman Legions.

  182. Wokechoke says:
    @A123

    They will be looking to refortify the area to the north with earthworks and bunkers.

  183. songbird says:

    If Biden were an actor, I suppose that he would have had to retire years ago, like Bruce Willis is now doing at age 67, due to aphasia.

    • Replies: @Mikel
  184. Wokechoke says:
    @Mikhail

    He will get the blame for if from his subordinates.

  185. Something weird is happening with the negotiations. Russia is saying that Ukraine agreed to give up Donetsk and Lugansk permanently, while Ukraine is stridently saying that they didn’t.

    I can’t make sense of it, unless Russia is actually agreeing to move back to the pre-war border, to which Ukraine have also given some sort of agreement, but Russia wants to spin it as their always aim.

    I suppose it is quite clever. Russia is reducing the definitions for its original war aims in order that they can declare “victory” domestically. No one outside of Russia, but completely braindead idiots, will buy it, but it isn’t so bad.

    I also can’t see how Putin stays very long in such a scenario, but his regime will probably maintain enough legitimacy.

    Meanwhile, Ukraine can be rebuilt with Russian currency reserves as reparations, a revitalised sense of national purpose and a fast track into the EU trading bloc. Russia will never be able to threaten Ukraine again, but perhaps Russia could end up following them into a better Europe.

  186. @Beckow

    Much more monumental (indeed suicidal) would be the end of industrial export from China which some policy makers are calling for.

    • Replies: @A123
  187. Beckow says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Something weird is happening with your logic.

    We have just seen Russia take Mariupol – the main city in Donbas that Kiev controlled until the war. Are you suggesting that Russia will turn it back to Kiev?

    Number one war aim for Russia was to get NATO out Ukraine. That has been accomplished and all they need to do is formalize it.

    Number two aim was for Donbas to be secured in its full borders. It is almost done.

    Number three was “de-nazification”: the losses by Azov and others have been large and that was the core element of what Russia calls “Ukie Nazism” (I think it is more complicated, but whatever.) They can regroup, but given the experience last month and in Mariupol the recruitment could be difficult.

    Putin is in power and quite popular by all accounts. The economy didn’t collapse, the ruble is up, China and others have stood with Russia so far…EU is having second thoughts about the brave new world without Russia’s energy and other resources. The central bank reserves are ‘frozen’, not taken, and they are being used to pay off Russia’s debts. Nobody will give them to Kiev – and Russia holds territory and assets in the part of Ukraine it controls that are way more valuable, arable land, ports…

    Russia is so far prevailing on points. Your scoring is weirdly selective and inconsistent.

  188. @Triteleia Laxa

    In any case the nuclear annihilation of the American Empire and its vassals will come before Putin’s ouster. We are all living in Putin’s head, like it or not.

  189. Wokechoke says:
    @Beckow

    She’s a fucking nutcase.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  190. Wokechoke says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Once the Ukrainian army cracks completely in the southeast there will be a revolt against Zelenskyy in Kiev. Like in the Falaise pocket someone like Kleist/Rundstedt/Rommel will take a crack at the charlatan, probably narrowly missing, at least to let Zelenskyy fly away. He will phone up Moscow to say it’s over with to avoid responsibility for the peace treaty.

  191. @sudden death

    More on potential rationing variations:

    BERLIN/FRANKFURT, March 30 (Reuters) – Germany triggered an emergency plan to manage gas supplies on Wednesday that could see Europe’s largest economy ration power if a standoff over a Russian demand to pay for fuel with roubles disrupts or halts supplies.

    Berlin’s unprecedented move is the clearest sign yet that the European Union is preparing for Moscow to cut gas supplies unless it gets payment in roubles. Italy and Latvia have already activated warnings.

    German Economy Minister Robert Habeck implemented the “early warning phase” of an existing gas emergency plan, where a crisis team from the economics ministry, the regulator and the private sector will monitor imports and storage.

    Habeck told reporters Germany’s gas supplies were guaranteed for now but urged consumers and companies to reduce consumption, saying that “every kilowatt hour counts”.

    If supplies fall short, Germany’s network regulator can ration gas, with industry first in line for cuts and preferential treatment for private households, hospitals and other critical institutions.

    Jean-François Carenco, head of the energy regulator in France, far less dependent on Russian gas than Germany, thanks to gas and liquefied natural gas sourced elsewhere and its reliance on nuclear power plants power generation, said the country should not encounter any supply issues.

    “Everything will be fine, the gas storage facilities are well filled, we’ll make it through the winter,” he told BFM TV.

    Greece was set to hold an emergency meeting of its energy regulator, gas transmission operator and its biggest gas and power suppliers on Wednesday to assess its supply security in case Russia stops supplies.

    The Dutch government said it would launch a campaign to get consumers to use less gas.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-declares-early-warning-potential-gas-supply-disruptions-2022-03-30/

  192. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Given what has gone in, the settlement proposal in this piece seems reasonably premised:

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/11032022-what-russia-desires-oped/

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  193. A123 says: • Website
    @Yellowface Anon

    Much more monumental (indeed suicidal) would be the end of industrial export from China which some policy makers are calling for.

    Indeed, PRC policy makers need to stop pushing for your proposed strategy of “sudden decoupling”. Your desired outcome will lead to unpredictable shortages across the global economy. Why is your CCP pushing for their own suicide? A “sudden decoupling” will deprive the U.S. of knick-nacks that have substitutes, while China is left short of food calories.

    The MAGA policy for gradual decoupling is much better for American Workers. And, the MAGA plan is simultaneously better for Chinese workers. Gradual decoupling is a WIN-WIN. Again, why does your CCP keep pushing towards the bad option?

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  194. utu says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Certainly Russia is looking for the way out. They miscalculated royally. They really thought that ‘Zelensky regime’ would collapse in 48 hours and EU and NATO and Germany, in particular, would have no time to raise real objections and would accept the fait accompli of annexation and the business between Germany and EU would continue as before. The miscalculation apart from the systemic deficiency of authoritarian and corrupt Putin regime comes from their arrogance and most importantly the utter contempt for Ukrainians as people. It may be called hubris. Certainly Germany was on board with Putin designs as it refused to provide arms to Ukraine two or so days before the invasion saying that it would be the waste of money as Ukraine would collapse within hours.

    It was the deep state of the UK and the US that had foresight to train Ukrainian army and began supplying it with weapons several months before the Russian invasion. This is very reassuring that in the background and below the ground there are real adults who are doing the right thing unperturbed by the theatrics of silly politicians and shallow media in the foreground. That Putin and his clique did ignore what was really happening shows that they just like the general public take for reality what is in the media. This is strange for people who are savvy enough to manipulate the whole rightoid sphere in the West to become their supporters to the point that every rightoid is a de facto Putinoid now.

    • Agree: AP
  195. @Mikhail

    Putin wins small by getting these concessions from Ukraine and NATO, or wins big by reaching for the Cheget. No one wants the 2nd one and this means 1st is somewhat certain.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
  196. china-russia-all-the-way says:
    @Aedib

    66% casualty rate? That is scary tenacity.

    Is it even believable?

    • Replies: @Aedib
  197. Beckow says:
    @Wokechoke

    Laxa gives us an insight into how many fire-eaters in the West think. It is a combination of wishful-thinking, hatreds towards Russia, and a self-administered PR – they repeat it so much that it becomes who they are.

    They will never accept a loss, they can’t. They will lie, disappear or even try to bring the world down – but they can’t accept that their dream has failed.

    • Agree: Aedib, Mikhail
  198. Aedib says:
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    I don’t know. But I read the same figures in another site.

  199. Wokechoke says:
    @utu

    The Russians are fighting a version of the Parachute Regiment and the Royal Marine Commando given the weaponry and doctrine. It’s both reassuring and alarming. It’s Literally why the Russians had to strike now. If they gave the advisors another year they might have been unable to cross the borders. Especially if the RAF and USAF started to train.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  200. A123 says: • Website
    @Aedib

    “Before the encirclement was completed” is a curiously specific phrase. It sounds like something coming from a speech writer in service to the European Elites of Davos.

    What happened (and what were the numbers) “prior to encirclement”?

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  201. Wokechoke says:
    @A123

    There were three Brigades, one Marine, one territorial and the other a Regular. That’s a minimum of 15,000. I suspect there were more.

    • Replies: @Aedib
  202. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Yellowface Anon

    Hopefully, his negotiators won’t blow it. The “guarantors” should include the likes of China, Turkey and India, to offset the slants prevalent among the elites in Canada, Poland and the US.

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  203. @A123

    Bad bot always screeching over any suggestion of China being antagonized.

    • Troll: A123
    • Replies: @A123
  204. @Mikhail

    Would be face-saving for the West, because Turkey is in NATO and India is at least cordial to the US.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  205. Mikhail says: • Website

    Given the circumstance, the purpose of having China, Turkey and India on board as guarantors is better than just having the likes of Canada, US and Poland. Then again, the role of guarantors can be excluded.

    • Disagree: Yellowface Anon
  206. @Beckow

    Russia is so far prevailing on points

    While having prior fight all their own money bets done on knockout at first blow, lol

  207. Mikel says:
    @songbird

    That’s an unfair comparison. An actor cannot possibly do his job if he is unable to express his thoughts properly. A US President of the Democratic Party, on the other hand, is not constrained by such limitations.

    • Agree: songbird
  208. Aedib says:
    @Wokechoke

    AFAIK:
    14500 in Mariupol
    59300 in Western-Donbass cauldron (not yet closed but with Ukr forces unable to retreat).

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @AP
  209. songbird says:

    There’s a Chinese blogger suggesting China will annex NE India, Northern Myanmar, and integrate with Bangladesh to solve the Malacca problem – sometime in the 2080s or later.

    Don’t know, but would suppose Indians would use nukes.

    • LOL: Yellowface Anon
  210. Wokechoke says:
    @Aedib

    If they don’t have fuel to drive out they have to walk. Very much like Falaise. When does a Ukrainian general attempt to depose Zelenskyy?

    • Replies: @Aedib
  211. songbird says:

    Peter Zeihan is saying that it will be “rough sledding” in Africa, South Asia, and China, in 18 months, as 1-2 billion people enter into chronic malnutrition.

    Never paid any attention to him, but now he is saying a bunch of crazy things, like 20% of Russians have AIDS, and 500 million Chinese will die in a year, if they are sanctioned. But that we can move cheap production of electronics to Vietnam.

    My favorite idea of his is why Mexico is off the table, when it comes to producing these goods. Its population centers are too separated, by geographic barriers. There is only a pocket of 30 million in the north. If they had more Mayans, up there, then it would be Silicon Valley 2.0.

    But I think he is deranged when he says that Russia will threaten to use nukes in order to make further annexations, past Ukraine, in order to shore up the geographic barriers. And, when he says, China is segwaying away.

  212. To the Russians and pro Russians here:

    Do you believe that Putin would accept a ceasefire where Russia gets Novorossiya and no formal Ukrainian admission to NATO but does not get any other concessions?

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  213. Wokechoke says:
    @Greasy William

    Do you think there will be a treaty?

    • Replies: @Greasy William
  214. @Wokechoke

    I don’t know. I can’t figure out what Putin’s endgame is. Why should Putin agree to stop the war if the West doesn’t drop the sanctions? Putin needs the Donbas for it’s natural gas but if he grabs western Ukraine too he will control 30% of the world’s wheat exports as well. It may be better to just see this war out until the end.

    The question is how well is Russia able to replace losses? It may be that Russia has no choice but to halt all offensive operations after the Donbas and just take whatever they can get in negotiations

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  215. Wokechoke says:
    @Greasy William

    It’s going to grind on until the Germans go cap in hand.

  216. Well how long is that gonna take? It better fucking happen at least a month before the midterms. I want to run on Biden having lost the war.

  217. Mikhail says: • Website
    @songbird

    Peter Zeihan is saying that it will be “rough sledding” in Africa, South Asia, and China, in 18 months, as 1-2 billion people enter into chronic malnutrition.

    Never paid any attention to him, but now he is saying a bunch of crazy things, like 20% of Russians have AIDS, and 500 million Chinese will die in a year, if they are sanctioned. But that we can move cheap production of electronics to Vietnam.

    No surprise from that former Stratfor individual.

    • Replies: @songbird
  218. songbird says:
    @Mikhail

    Can’t say that I am familiar with Stratfor. Are they a bunch of neocons?

    To me, Zeihan has a neocon aura. Though, I think one has to read between the lines, and it is nowhere near as obvious as it is in some others. (not familiar with his books, or previous work)

    • Replies: @Mikhail
  219. Mikhail says: • Website
    @songbird

    Yeah, Zeihan is acceptable within neocon/neolb ranks. Stratfor was headed by the overrated George Friedman, who is critically mentioned in this article:

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/24122021-deconstructing-john-batchelors-shows-on-russia-oped/

    • Thanks: songbird
  220. Caucausoids are becoming unhinged. Not only is Azeribaijan-Armenia heating up. Now there are reports coming in that South Ossetia, a territory that Russia fought a war over in 2008 against Georgia, is preparing to declare a referendum on accession to the Russian Federation. The referendum is being planned not in months but in weeks.

    Does the Kremlin even want this?

    • Replies: @Greasy William
  221. @Thulean Friend

    Does the Kremlin even want this?

    why wouldn’t they? “Russian” has always been like the world’s most amorphous ethnic identity. Although the Chinese give them a run for their money.

    Caucausoids are becoming unhinged.

    People from the Caucasus are primitive brutes, imo.

  222. Everyone has heard about Russian roulette, and now meet Ukrainian roulette
    Cars drive around TM-62M anti-tank mines installed by the Ukrainian military in Borodyanka

  223. KP says:

    Well, having read through it all, the audience expects pictures of one side or the other in here eating their hats when peace is declared. We want more than ribbing from one side while the other ducks and doesn’t apologise.

    The war in here is hotter than the Donbass!

    As my mother still says, she is horrified at how much they were lied to in the Air Force in the 1940s, there was no truth at all from Churchill.

  224. @utu

    This is strange for people who are savvy enough to manipulate the whole rightoid sphere in the West to become their supporters to the point that every rightoid is a de facto Putinoid now.

    btw, there is an existing subset of RF maximalist nationalist landgrabber hardliners, who are so beyond disgust with all the Putin action since Ukraine first 2004 Maidan at least, that they developed a theory of Putin really being just crypto-Western deep state agent, having and executing long term strategic goal to crush RF from within. They are sure all those blunders, corruption and hubris are all nothing but just beforehand calculated parts of the plan, lol

    Viewing things with this type of mindframe, it could be also said that Hitler really was also just crypto Anglo-Saxon deep state agent hell bent to completely destruct and annihilate traditional conservative united nationalistic Germany, which was created in 1871 😉

  225. Aedib says:
    @Wokechoke

    You are right. It seems, so far, like Falaise rather than Operation Uranus.

    https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1509441988151631873/photo/1

  226. A123 says: • Website

    Russia avoids a weak currency — The EURO: (1)

    Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will hold further discussions on the purchase of Russian energy products in rubles according to TASS (Russian News) and western media. However, in the interim Russia will continue accepting payment in euros which will be exchanged for rubles by Gazprom bank.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will hold further discussions on the purchase of Russian energy products in rubles according to TASS (Russian News) and western media. However, in the interim Russia will continue accepting payment in euros which will be exchanged for rubles by Gazprom bank.

    People keep claiming that the USD is dead. Yet, what is the alternative?

    Major players are even more enthusiastically avoiding China’s currency [RMB] and the blighted EUR. Beyond the Big Three no other currency has sufficient internationally available volume. History shows that trying to work in smaller currencies, such as Swiss Francs [CHF], creates unintended and undesirable consequences.
    ___

    As a limited volume currency, Russia has defended its Ruble [RUB] admirably. Internal speculation has been limited by law. The amount circulating outside the country is too small for known exploiters, like George IslamoSoros, to manipulate. Anyone trying to do so would walk directly into a a “short squeeze” scenario.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/30/russia-agrees-to-accept-euros-for-energy-payment-which-will-be-transacted-into-rubles-by-gazprombank/

  227. A123 says: • Website
    @Yellowface Anon

    If you do not want to sound like a bad bot… That is 100% under your control.

    Simply stop screeching about your desired “sudden decoupling” scenario. The only one pitching that bit of craziness is you.

    PEACE 😇

  228. @Beckow

    This will likely be my last post for a while on this subject. With Ukraine currently recapturing territory, even someone as dense as you will surely have to realise that you were always wrong. Let’s see if you can progress past “shock & disbelief” by the end of next week?

    I sadly suspect not. Instead, you will remain collapsed into your own personal shadow land of resentment and projection. Here’s a tip: before you ask me anything, first ask yourself that thing. That way you might find a way out.

    Anyway, to address your points in the most optimistic way I can for Russia:

    We have just seen Russia take Mariupol

    Not yet and there were just 3000 Ukrainians soldiers there. Probably about the number they stand up every few days.

    D- for Russia.

    Are you suggesting that Russia will turn it back to Kiev?

    How long does Russia want their full army deployed there to hold it? And while sanctioned?

    F for Russia.

    Number one war aim for Russia was to get NATO out Ukraine.

    NATO wasn’t in Ukraine but now they are. And Ukraine will be a de facto member of NATO when this war is over. Even if not formally in it.

    F for Russia.

    Number three was “de-nazification”: the losses by Azov and others have been large and that was the core element of what Russia calls “Ukie Nazism”

    Azov has likely never had so many members, nor so much combat experience nor so much credibility.

    F for Russia.

    Putin is in power and quite popular by all accounts.

    If this is true, and remains true, f*cking massive F for Russians.

    The economy didn’t collapse, the ruble is up

    Sanctions are meant to take about 3 months to bite. It has been just over one month. Meanwhile, Russia has lost hundreds of thousands of its most intelligent young people, which will doom their hopes of an O-ring economy.

    F for Russia, unless they make a peace that can end sanctions in the next two months. But their talent may never come back.

    China and others have stood with Russia so far

    Russia’s best friends literally did nothing for Russia. That is sad.

    F for Russia.

    EU is having second thoughts about the brave new world without Russia’s energy and other resources. The central bank reserves are ‘frozen’, not taken, and they are being used to pay off Russia’s debts. Nobody will give them to Kiev – and Russia holds territory and assets in the part of Ukraine it controls that are way more valuable, arable land, ports…

    Bizarre and laughable cope. Too pitiful to address.

    F for you and Russia.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack, Johann Ricke
    • Troll: Wokechoke
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    , @Wokechoke
    , @Beckow
  229. Mr. Hack says:

    It’s somewhat rare, but you do occasionally stumble accross some intelligent commenters at other UNZ blogsites. Here’s a good comment that I recently came accross, including my reply:

    meamjojo says:Next New Comment
    March 31, 2022 at 8:23 am GMT • 5.3 hours ago • 100 Words ↑
    I have to thank Putin for being instrumental in solidifying NATO, bringing the West together including getting Poland back in to the fold (they were teetering prior to the invasion), single-handedly cratering his own economy and crashing the myth that Russia had a great army. Russia was 11 in the world in GDP prior to the invasion. They are sure to have dropped into the lower 20 now.

    Oh and I must not forget the 200k+ young, smart Russian who have already left the country. Perhaps we can score some good [previously] Russian brainiacs.

    Glory to Ukraine!

    ——————————————————————————————————————–

    You forgot to mention that while the West is dithering about sending any planes to Ukraine, Russia is now the greatest provider of tanks for Ukraine.

    Ukraine has captured at least 117 Russian tanks. To put it another way, the Ukrainian army had around 2,550 tanks (including light tanks and main battle tanks) before the war. After its battle gains, they have now 2593 tanks, 43 more than the original count.

    https://eurasiantimes.com/ukraines-now-boasts-more-tanks-than-pre-war-times-figure/

  230. Mr. Hack says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Russia has lost hundreds of thousands of its most intelligent young people, which will doom their hopes of an O-ring economy.

    Can you expound on this a bit? Has Karlin finally chucked his “Triune theory” bit and returned to Silicon Value? Unemployment at this time must be tough to handle in Moscow.

    Don’t stay away too long. You have many fans here that appreciate your acerbic humor. 🙂

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  231. Aedib says:

    Desperate intends to rescue remaining Azovites from Azovstal end in disaster.

    https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7529721.html

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @AP
  232. Wokechoke says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Now it’s 3,000 defenders…not even a Brigade?

  233. Mr. Hack says:
    @Mr. Hack

    Should have stated “Silicon Valley”. Need some coffee. 🙂

  234. Wokechoke says:
    @Aedib

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battles_of_Khalkhin_Gol

    The Russian tank fleet was destroyed, the Russians lost 25,000 dead/missing…annihilated the Japanese anyway.

    • LOL: Aedib
  235. @songbird

    “rough sledding” in Africa, South Asia, and China, in 18 months, as 1-2 billion people enter into chronic malnutrition.

    Do they even care about mainly USD/EUR sanctions? A fraction of that is likely but you can only break food markets that far.

    500 million Chinese will die in a year, if they are sanctioned. But that we can move cheap production of electronics to Vietnam.

    China can just buy stuff from the other outlaw if you’re treated like one. The hole in manufacturing can be filled in a decade or two – everyone is still dependent on China even when enough low-value supply chains have beeb relocated to SE/S Asia. You will own nothing and be miserable. Is he possessed by A123?

    Russia will threaten to use nukes in order to make further annexations, past Ukraine

    Might actually happen in the Baltics and the treat of escalation is very real.

    China is segwaying away.

    Trade with everyone who are willing to, and leave them alone if they don’t want your products, while avoiding overdependence on foreign imports.

    • Troll: A123
    • Replies: @A123
    , @songbird
  236. A123 says: • Website
    @Yellowface Anon

    The catastrophic problem your CCP faces with food markets is *only surplus above national needs reaches “the market” *. (1)

    A global food crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine escalated on Wednesday as Indonesia tightened curbs on palm oil exports, adding to a growing list of key producing countries seeking to keep vital food supplies within their borders

    • Palm oil prices soar as Indonesia curbs exports
    • Ukraine bans wide range of agricultural exports
    • Serbia bans exports of wheat, corn, flour and cooking oil
    • Yara curtails fertiliser output in Italy and France

    Countries that are deeply food calorie negative, notably China, are at the most risk. The U.S., Europe, and Russia all dramatically over produce while fertilizer is available. Reduced availability of fertilizer, higher cost, and national export restrictions will combine to sharply reduce the amount for food calories available on international markets.

    The CCP has an especially bad version of market ignorance. They blindly assume that there will:

    — “always be a seller” for the food they desperately need to buy
    — “always be a buyer” for the discretionary, personal use products that represent most of their output.

    Upcoming winter wheat harvest will be impaired, and a huge array of spring planting will be Nitrogen short. At a minimum, that is two “seasons” of calorie deficit. If the fighting continues, a whole year of global food production could plummet.

    Expect China to redeem their U.S. bond holding to purchase American Agriculture exports at historically, exceptionally high prices. Even that will leave the CCP with a strict rationing requirement that could easily result in a, long overdue, counter revolution against central rule.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.reuters.com/world/food-crisis-grows-spiralling-prices-spark-export-bans-2022-03-09/

    • Troll: Yellowface Anon
  237. AP says:
    @Aedib

    Russian wiki states there were 3,500 Ukrainian military plus 800 Azov forces in Mariupol.

    I couldn’t find exact numbers of troops in each brigade assigned to Mariupol, although one had about 1,200 members a few years ago.

    Looking into the units involved it seems that some of the people in the brigades assigned to Mariupol have been fighting outside Kiev.

    So a total number 3,500 regular military in Mariupol is likely.

    The city was supposed to have fallen yesterday, but didn’t. Maybe today? How many weeks will it take the mighty Russian military to finally clear one city of 4,300 motivated Ukrainian defenders?

    • LOL: Aedib
  238. Beckow says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I see you are planning to escape from your deranged posts here. Probably a good choice.

    Not yet and there were just 3000 Ukrainians soldiers there.

    Yes, “yet”. Even the most anti-Russian Western media estimated that there were 12-15k Ukie soldiers in Mariupol. There are maybe 3k left, surrounded and with no chance to win. What happened to the others? If this is a Kiev victory for the desperation PR now has a new face. Mariupol is in Russian hands.

    NATO wasn’t in Ukraine but now they are.

    NATO was in Ukraine and now will not be. See, I fixed it for you. Read the Western media – that’s is what they say: ‘Kiev will agree to a neutral Ukraine not in NATO” – google the phrase, you will be surprised how much things have changed since January.

    Russia’s best friends literally did nothing for Russia.

    Really? China has supported Russia economically and diplomatically. So has India and governments that represent about 80% of the global population (West has about 20%). If this is “nothing” why is Washington desperately yelling and threatening China and others? Even Turkey refused to do sanctions.

    I agree that Azov is often used as a short-hand, but there are fewer Azov-like military forces now than there were a month ago.

    You failed to answer any substantive points. Russia is winning on points.

    • Agree: Wokechoke
    • Replies: @AP
    , @LatW
  239. songbird says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    Zeihan says, only 5% of US GDP is non-NAFTA trade. And he calls it a continent-based economy or something. And seems to imply that the US intentionally abandoned global trade in order to forge a New World Order, where it was global hegemon, more attractive to its partners like Germany and Japan.

    If I understand him correctly, he is downplaying India superpower 2030, but also touting India’s longterm geostrategic position. Nearly straddling the Gulf – so they can decide who gets oil. 70% of global trade passes through the Indian Ocean Basin. India is only one of about six countries with a certain level of development that are not facing demographic collapse (? I thought they were.)

    China is segwaying away.

    What I meant to imply with this is that Zeihan thinks that China is already telegraphing that they are willing to drop Russia like a rock, in order to ingratiate themselves with the American order.

    • Replies: @A123
  240. AP says:
    @Beckow

    Even the most anti-Russian Western media estimated that there were 12-15k Ukie soldiers in Mariupol

    Russian and English wiki both stated 3,500 Ukrainian troops plus 800 Azovites in Mariupol.

    Ukraine has 250,00 military plus at least 100k reserves mobilized so even 15k in Mariupol would be less than 5% of Ukraine’s military, which took about 6 weeks to be defeated despite being only 20 km from the prewar front line.

    Since Mariupol may be the only battle that Russia wins in this war (so far they have failed to encircle/seize Kiev and Kharkiv), it makes sense to exaggerate the number of Ukrainian defenders.

    • Troll: Wokechoke
    • Replies: @Beckow
    , @Wokechoke
    , @Wokechoke
  241. songbird says:

    Can someone please explain the different spellings of Zelensky?
    -Zelensky (I assume Westernized)
    -Zelenskyy (I presume purely employed for comedic purposes)
    -Zelenskiy (Guardian has employed it in the past, not sure if currently)

    It is not like “Kiev” and “Kyiv”, is it?

  242. A123 says: • Website
    @songbird

    What I meant to imply with this is that Zeihan thinks that China is already telegraphing that they are willing to drop Russia like a rock, in order to ingratiate themselves with the American order.

    I am having difficulty following you conclusion.

    What do you mean by “American Order”?

    The CCP is already part owner of the illegitimate Biden regime: (1)

      

    However, the current White House dribbler is diametrically opposed to American workers and American values. Describing Not-The-President Biden as “American Order” is clearly inappropriate.

    Do you mean that China is attempting to curry favour with the European WEF Elites of Davos? They are the puppet masters of current White House occupant.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @songbird
  243. AP says:
    @Aedib

    Your gloating was premature. Most of the ones evacuated escaped, only 1 of the 4 helicoptors was downed:

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @Aedib
  244. songbird says:
    @A123

    However, the current White House dribbler

    Have there been previous ones? Maybe, FDR after he had his stroke?

    Do you mean that China is attempting to curry favour with the European WEF Elites of Davos?

    Klaus Schwab is surprisingly not super rich. But I suppose it would be hard to bribe some of the others.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
  245. This saga has more twists and turns than a spythriller.

    Putin Says Gas Exports to Be Halted If Ruble Payments Not Made

    “To buy Russian gas, they need to open ruble accounts in Russian banks,” Putin told officials in a televised speech Thursday. “It is from those accounts that gas will be paid for starting April 1. If such payments aren’t made, we will consider this a failure by the client to comply with its obligations.”

    Buyers should open special accounts in state-controlled Gazprombank to allow foreign currency to be swapped to rubles for settlements, according to an order signed by Putin.

    Official Kremlin spokesperson Peskov denied the imminent deadline was on the table just a day ago and now Putin is already contradicting him. Chaotic or unpredictable? Reminds me of the Trump presidency, except Putin’s actually in control, unlike Trump.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  246. Beckow says:
    @AP

    You are intentionally – and retroactively – downplaying the situation in Mariupol. That is not what you, Laxa and the Western media were saying previously. But ok, we are familiar with the sour grapes Aesop fable, have at it if it makes you feel better.

    Ukraine started the war with half a million soldiers of varied quality. The troops in Mariupol and Donbas are among the best Kiev has. The ones in Mariupol have been neutralized – Russians claim up to 10k, others say 3k, it was clearly a defeat. Another defeat was Kherson. Lugansk republic is almost fully taken by the LNR forces. The stocks of weapons, oil and defense plants have been destroyed. Kiev has almost no air force and no navy. You are wrong about assessing the lack of victories. Sour grapes.

    Strategically for a smaller force to win requires time and maneuvers – Russia attacked with only 200k soldiers. The same happened in every war. Ukraine is the largest country defending itself in the last 30 years. Half a million well-armed soldiers who have been preparing for years and are from a good fighting stock. That means the war will take time and losses on both sides. That’s why it was so important to avoid it and Kiev refused – now they will settle for a worse deal after the unnecessary war.

    You are not a realist and that is a problem. The opposite of realism is not-realism – in other words, you attempt to live outside of the realities we face. You think that by not being a realist you represent higher ideas – a noble idealism of sorts. It doesn’t work that way, there is no such thing as idealism, other than in your mind.

    This is a relatively simple situation: an unnecessary war fought over overly ambitious and unrealistic dreams by some in Washington and Brussels that the Ukrainian people are paying a heavy price for. It is time to end it.

    • Replies: @AP
  247. Beckow says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Financial billing and payments are not instantaneous. Accounts payable usually take up to 60 days after an invoice. The current payment procedures vary and changing them in the middle of ongoing business takes time. There is no contradiction – both statements are (or can be) true.

    If an invoice was sent before today it is normal that it will be settled in the old method in euros in the next 1-2 months. What is changing is billing and payments after April 1. German gas firms will open ruble accounts probably in intermediary names. Russia will effectively receive payments in rubles. and not keep the proceeds in EU in euros. To simplify transactions costs I would expect that the German firms will eventually do it directly (and quietly).

    Another alternative is that the German firms will be ordered not to pay at all for the gas, or to pay into what are effectively frozen Russian accounts. Then we will see who blinks. But if Russia stops sending the gas for non-payment by customers it will get really ugly. I still think that they will muddle through. It is really about the Western PR and not losing face, there are ways to do it since the mass media in the West is very compliant.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  248. Sean says:

    The troops in Mariupol and Donbas are among the best Kiev has

    The Americans refused to supply the Azov regiment with advanced weapons or give them training, so they are likely not as formidable compared to other Ukrainian units as their reputation suggested

    The stocks of weapons, oil and defense plants have been destroyed

    They are asking for 500 Javelins a week. They are not going to run out of artillery ammunition, drones to target indirect fire, or trucks. More advanced weapons’ like the switchblades will take time but eventually be arriving in quantity

    That means the war will take time and losses on both sides. That’s why it was so important to avoid it and Kiev refused – now they will settle for a worse deal after the unnecessary war.

    Zelensky would not be allowed to agree to a peace that ceded territory. The longer this goes on the better and the more chance they will get all of Donbass back. That is the way the Ukrainians are thinking at present it seems to me.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  249. @songbird

    Zeihan is a defense contractor lobbying consultant.

    • Thanks: songbird
  250. Wokechoke says:
    @Beckow

    Here’s a fun one.

    Putin proposes to return Konigsberg back to Germany as a good well gesture.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
  251. Wokechoke says:
    @AP

    Well, that wiki number has been altered. Three brigades were listed there.

    • Replies: @AP
  252. AP says:
    @Beckow

    You are intentionally – and retroactively – downplaying the situation in Mariupol. That is not what you, Laxa and the Western media were saying previously.

    I don’t know about the others but you are lying about me.

    But ok, we are familiar with the sour grapes Aesop fable

    Sour grapes adequately described what Russians write about Ukraine.

    Ukraine started the war with half a million soldiers of varied quality.

    You make the Russian defeat sting less by lying about and exaggerating the number of Ukrainian troops.

    Ukraine started the war with 250,000 people in its military. Because Russia failed to take much territory, Ukraine has had time to mobilize and arm 100,000s more. It may have half a million now. Which is why Russia has no chance of conquering Ukraine. It can only bleed more while killing Ukrainian civilians and taking some lands incrementally until it runs out of soldiers to throw into the meatgrinder. Though for the last few days it has been losing ground around Kiev, Kharkiv and Sumy that compensate for land gained around Luhansk.

    The troops in Mariupol and Donbas are among the best Kiev has.

    Congratulations, you have finally managed to write something accurate and true. Was it a mistake?

    Indeed, that the 4,300 Ukrainian troops in Mariupol still manage to hold parts of the city after nearly 6 weeks reflects their high quality.

    Another defeat was Kherson

    Unlike Mariupol, Kherson wasn’t defended, the single Ukrainian brigade that was there retreated to Mykolaiv where the Russians were stopped before they could get closer to Odessa or block the roads to Odessa.

    Same story with Melitopol.

    There is an ongoing battle in Izium that Ukrainians may or may not lose eventually.

    Russia attacked with only 200k soldiers.

    Which is why a realist such as me concluded that Russia would not be able to seize all of Ukraine while an idealist such as Karlin estimated 90% chance of Ukraine losing the war in a week. You also assumed a quick Ukrainian defeat but didn’t provide a date IIRC because you are also not a realist.

    The stocks of weapons, oil and defense plants have been destroyed. Kiev has almost no air force and no navy. You are wrong about assessing the lack of victories

    Review what I actually wrote – “Since Mariupol may be the only battle that Russia wins in this war”

    Hitting factories and oil depots or bombing an airport is not a battle.

    The more desperate you become, the more you lie.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    , @Wokechoke
  253. AP says:
    @Wokechoke

    The brigades there could have had as few as 1,000 soldiers. At least some personnel from the brigades listed as being in Mariupol were fighting outside Kiev.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  254. Wokechoke says:
    @AP

    Have you ever heard of ww2 battles like Caen? It was this coastal city with a set of critical road junctions the British were supposed to capture day 1 or 2 of DDay landings? In end the Germans concentrated a great deal of forces there. It was never surrounded but huge loses on both sides happened. Huge attritional battle that broke the Germans. Maruipol is probably more analogous with Cherbourg though. A port that the aamericans should have captured in a week as it was a key port. Kherson is the city at the estuary of the Dneiper anyway and that was gone in a few days. Might have been the only important city in Ukraine in a geostrategic sense. Kiev while the capital is landlocked like a river city on the Mississipppi. Kherson is more like New Orleans in terms of ruling the Dneiper.

    Mariupol looks like that sort of a hinge. Taking or losing it has been similar to sieges in ww2 Tobruk in North Africa, during the last 8 years.

    You sound like a troll at this point.

    • Replies: @AP
  255. AP says:
    @Wokechoke

    Maruipol is probably more analogous with Cherbourg though. A port that the aamericans should have captured in a week as it was a key port.

    Per wiki Cherbourg was defended by 40,000 Germans and took the Americans 24 days to capture.

    Mariupol had 4,300 defenders and still hasn’t been taken after more than 5 weeks, despite being 20 km by land from the front line.

    You sound like a troll at this point.

    Should I repaste your idiocy about Ukraine collapsing back in February?

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @EddieSpaghetti
  256. Beckow says:
    @AP

    If you get off your insane ‘lies‘ terminology we could have a rational discussion. But usually you descend very quickly into hysterical ad hominem. People will give up on you.

    The points I made were:
    – Russia attacked with fewer troops than available to Kiev so it will inevitably take time
    – they won in the south-Kherson, Lugansk, Mariupol, etc…not bad after 35 days
    – Mariupol is a strategic defeat for Kiev, it completes the loss of Azov See and gives DPR what they wanted before the war. The losses in Mariupol are also very substantial. The fact that a few thousand dead-enders are resisting surrender is non-material. They have no chance of winning and can save themselves only through a peace treaty or surrender.
    – By the Western standards destroying weapons, oil, even infrastructure is a celebrated win – check out the gloating after Beograd, Iraq, etc… by the way, not a single NATO soldier came to Beograd, was that a “loss” by your standard?

    I never took a guess how long the war would take. In any project or initiative the timing is least important and hardest to predict. I stay away from timing estimates. You don’t seem to understand that how long it takes is not very relevant, what matters is whether the aims are reached and at what cost. That holds true for both sides. So far on points Russia has achieved more than Kiev and at lower cost.

    If we get a stalemate, or today’s map exists in 3-6 months, I will reassess who is winning. But closing our eyes to reality is just stupid. The same holds for gas-for-rubles, if in 6 months Russia gives up on it, it would be a loss. On the other hand, if EU pays in rubles – directly or through intermediaries – they would win. Looking at \$-ruble exchange today, the market is betting that Russia will get what it wants. Pay attention to markets, people who put money into it tend be closer to reality.

    • Agree: Mikhail
    • Replies: @A123
    , @LatW
  257. Wokechoke says:
    @AP

    Resistance is futile. I hope you’ve been buying Rubles.

    • Replies: @A123
  258. Beckow says:
    @AP

    ….At least some personnel from the brigades listed as being in Mariupol were fighting outside Kiev.

    Some? how many? few dozen or hundreds?

    Look this matters. Kiev clearly had a large force in Mariupol that mostly didn’t get away. Russia claims that it destroyed 5k and took prisoner another 5k. You say that there are 4.3k defenders left. Given fog of war (and propaganda), we can’t know for sure.

    Based on earlier Kiev and media coverage there had to be 12-15k Ukie defenders in Mariupol. Some probably got away, some were destroyed.

    What is your assessment of Kiev side?
    – how many at the beginning of war?
    – how many escaped the cauldron?
    – how many destroyed and taken POW?

    We know you think 4.3k are left fighting. What do you think awaits them? How many will escape in choppers? How many won’t?

    • Replies: @AP
  259. Wokechoke says:
    @Sean

    The problem will be getting that gear to anywhere near the action in the south.

    • Replies: @Sean
  260. A123 says: • Website
    @Beckow

    On the other hand, if EU pays in rubles – directly or through intermediaries – they would win. Looking at \$-ruble exchange today, the market is betting that Russia will get what it wants. Pay attention to markets, people who put money into it tend be closer to reality.

    As I pointed out above:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-183-russia-ukraine/#comment-5264351

    Russia will continue accepting payment in euros which will be exchanged for rubles by Gazprom bank.

    Russia is not going to suicide by demanding Rubles. At they same time they refuse to hold a failing currency like the Euro. The F/X transaction to immediately convert EUR to RUB will be priced into per bbl cost.

    PEACE 😇

  261. AP says:
    @Beckow

    You say that there are 4.3k defenders left.

    There you go again, lying. Why object to that term when you lie?

    I was simply quoting both Russian and English wiki that claimed a total of 3,500 Ukrainian regular military plus 800 Azov forces in that city during the battle. Not how any are left.

    Based on earlier Kiev and media coverage there had to be 12-15k Ukie defenders in Mariupol.

    I don’t recall reading such numbers. On what do you base your claim.

    What do you think awaits them?

    They will either fight to the end, as Slavs often do, or until some of them will surrender.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @Beckow
  262. Aedib says:

    Surprise? Not at all.

  263. There are rumors floating around that two of the intelligence officials who died in the helicopter crash were French. This would explain Macron’s frenetic attempts at an evacuation. Incidentally, the french military’s intelligence head was fired today, after only 7 months on the job.

    • Agree: Aedib
    • Replies: @LondonBob
  264. A123 says: • Website
    @Wokechoke

    I hope you’ve been buying Rubles.

    What is the availability of investment grade, Russian minted, Palladium coins?

    That strategy could be a two-fer for industrial metals and the Ruble.

    PEACE 😇

  265. Wokechoke says:
    @AP

    Suddenly I began to hate…

  266. Wokechoke says:
    @AP

    Technically the way that Jodie Zelenskyy press ganged every man into this massacre every Ukrainian speaking man in town is a combatant.

  267. Wokechoke says:
    @Aedib

    It’s gonna be some SAS or whatnot

  268. LatW says:
    @Beckow

    I agree that Azov is often used as a short-hand, but there are fewer Azov-like military forces now than there were a month ago.

    Azov is not a group of men, but a movement (the so called Азов Рух which includes the civilian corps, volunteers, a political party, etc). They were always loved by the people, but now they will gain immortality.

    [MORE]

    The commander was still alive 10 hours ago. The founder is most likely still alive, too.

    “Cattle die
    kinsmen die
    all men are mortal.
    Words of praise
    will never perish
    nor a noble name.”

    The Words of the High One

    • Troll: RadicalCenter
  269. LatW says:
    @Beckow

    Mariupol is a strategic defeat for Kiev,

    You don’t grasp the purpose of the martyr city Mariupol. Mariupol is being held so that the Ukrainian troops can fight off Russians elsewhere, they have held the bigger weight to save others and to save the capital.

    • Replies: @Aedib
    , @Beckow
  270. Aedib says:
    @LatW

    Same arguments used by the Germans after Stalingrad: “Die but save your brother”.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  271. Beckow says:
    @AP

    …On what do you base your claim.

    In late February both Financial Times and DW used that estimate for ‘Mariupol front‘. That could be a larger area or not. I have no idea what they based the estimate on. Russia says that they ‘destroyed’ 5k and took 5k POWs – the videos show hundreds of POWs.

    …fight to the end or surrender

    Well, obviously, there are no other options. The sun will also rise tomorrow – also obviously :).

    I am worried about how are you going to handle the coming tragedy in Ukraine (sincerely worried). This has been building up for years and the cataclysm will be brutal: nobody will get what they want, and all involved will regret ever getting into this mess. It goes back to the Maidan and whether it was handled well – I said all along that no, it wasn’t, it was a gradual disaster for all sides involved. It unleashed medieval furies and here we are. Slavs often do that too…check out our history.

    • Replies: @AP
  272. Beckow says:
    @LatW

    …purpose of the martyr city Mariupol.

    First of all, Russia doesn’t seem to want Kiev – why would they negotiate with the government in Kiev if they planned to storm the city? Think.

    Second, martyrdom only serves a purpose if it stops something larger. (Even then, it is an odd way to fight.) Russian army will do the opposite after Mariupol, they will consolidate, move on to other targets, and have a safe hinterland behind them. There is no larger purpose served by the martyrdom. Maybe eventually some poetry or statues…

    • Replies: @LatW
    , @RadicalCenter
  273. AP says:
    @Beckow

    …On what do you base your claim.

    In late February both Financial Times and DW used that estimate for ‘Mariupol front‘.

    I haven’t seen it, the only concreter numbers I’ve seen were 3,500+800. I tried to check by looking up the units in Mariupol and saw one of them had a strength of 1,200 a couple of years ago which would seem to match the Russian wikipedia total. I also saw that some soldiers assigned to the units in Mariupol were fighting and getting killed outside Kiev, which would also support the low figure.

    Russia says that they ‘destroyed’ 5k and took 5k POWs –

    Do you assume the Russian government is more honest than the Ukrainian one?

    the videos show hundreds of POWs.

    This would not contradict a total of 4,300 before the siege.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  274. Wokechoke says:
    @Aedib

    When Zelenskyy mentioned Stalingrad one assumes he meant the Soviet Defence. He may have meant the Hitler order to Paulus to defend until suiciding himself.

    • Replies: @LatW
    , @LatW
  275. LatW says:
    @Wokechoke

    To win a war, one must be ready not only to kill, but also to die. One is dying for his homeland so a worthy cause. You may not understand.

    Btw, they could’ve left, but they didn’t want to leave their wounded behind…

  276. @Wokechoke

    I wonder if he bothered to give Poland a heads up!

  277. LatW says:
    @Beckow

    Russia doesn’t seem to want Kiev

    Oh yea? So they threw their soldiers to death in such large numbers just like that? Not to mention the equipment. The Russian Federation has been substantially demilitarized through this (they like the word). The truth is that Russia wanted all of Ukraine, it could’ve easily just kept Donbas but there wasn’t much to gain from that anymore.

    Remember, a few months back you pondered, “Hm, I wonder who gets to keep Kyiv? Russians or Ukrainians?”. And I told you back then that the Ukrainians will keep it.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @Beckow
  278. @AP

    Where do you get the figure that initially Mariupol had 4,300 defenders. The lowest estimate that I have seen was that they started with 14,500 defenders; the highest estimate I have seen was 20,000.

    • Replies: @AP
  279. songbird says:

    I admire the Japanese for having territorial disputes with two nuclear powers.

  280. LatW says:
    @Wokechoke

    Paulus to defend until suiciding himself

    And please don’t make dishonest and ridiculous comparisons. Paulus was an occupier on foreign soil.

    The Azov heroes are standing on their ancestral land and the land that their children are entitled to. That is a fundamental difference.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @Aedib
  281. Wokechoke says:
    @LatW

    No they aren’t. 2022 is the last time these characters see the Azov Sea.

  282. Wokechoke says:
    @LatW

    Hitler’s main mistake was capturing Kiev. The EEZ and coast is worth 100x the dying river city that is Kiev. Kherson is far more valuable in that sense as well. Kiev is just full of Museum Cossacks.

    • Replies: @AP
  283. AP says:
    @Wokechoke

    The EEZ and coast is worth 100x the dying river city that is Kiev.

    Does Beckow hear the sour grapes? Lol.

  284. Dmitry says:
    @Ron Unz

    Air defense is not hermetic. Russia could surely destroy NATO HQ building in Brussels with even old subsonic cruise missiles and NATO could destroy a palace building in the Kremlin with subsonic Tomahawk missiles as response (as the air defense is not at all hermetic).

    But if a warhead is conventional, the damage from one attack, would be small and not have likely military significance between countries. If the warhead is nuclear (tactical or strategic weapons) then it would create military signifance, but there would create a response of the same weapons (so fortunately not likely between nuclear powers).

    have usually been tactically cost-ineffective, e.g. blowing up that aspirin factory in Sudan,

    This is why ground-launched cruise missiles are not always so useful, because they only go to fixed targets you have seen from ground or satellite images, which are already in the target bank

    You can have bad intelligence, or even good intelligence which is too old (maybe by minutes) and you destroy a useless building.

    Whereas drones like Bayraktar TB2, can find the new targets with real time, have no “sense shooter delay”, are very difficult to intercept for air defense.

    Also modern strike fighters with targeting pods can find new targets. Planes like Eurofighter Typhoon are added with targeting pods which are able to find new targets on the ground during its flying. Currently in the Russian air force there are no planes with targeting pods and you can see the effect now in Ukraine with no attacks with e.g. guided weapons against moving targets.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
    , @Sean
  285. @Dmitry

    Chile is an interesting case. The economy is robust. It has actually become a centre of inbound migration from across Spanish speaking America. So, it has increasingly strict immigration laws but probably has ways of letting in the skilled. It’s had some mid level manufacturing like electric motors for a long time. However, it also has copper (mostly owned by Serb interests I believe – used to be Welsh), the previously lithium (the best grade in the world, so far the only usable ore) and guano (Do not laugh. The world is short of fertilizer) not to mention fresh produce.

    So yes. A relatively modernized country with a good lifestyle. A decent base. Also a route into the Spanish language market for software. A place to grow a bit before being taken out by the big Anglo firms.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
  286. @songbird

    Hey, don’t forget about Barack the dribbler! He liked to get on court for some performative blackness.

    • LOL: songbird
  287. Dmitry says:
    @Wokechoke

    I think it’s kind of crazy to compare these disorganized, asset-stripped postsoviet militaries, with the professional British army.

    You can look at videos in the Falklands War (1982) and see how professional, well equipped, organized British soldiers (also calm in their incompetent disasters https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eo0BNYGgEV4.), compared to postsoviet militaries, with mix match equipment, semi-trained soldiers, improvised logistics, air force with civilian avionic equipment inside the planes, etc.

    gave the advisors another year they might have been unable

    I read there were 100 SAS (Special Air Service),helping units in Ukraine for a few weeks. According to reports it was to train them to use NLAW.

    Many of the forces in Ukraine will be not very trained though and Territorial Defense Forces are mainly untrained volunteers.

    If there will be months of fighting, even untrained volunteers, however, can surely become increasingly effective, in a kind of evolutionary way (unsuccessful units are destroyed, volunteers develop experience from real life).

    unable to cross the borders. Especially if the RAF and USAF started to train.

    RAF would have destroyed invading columns in the first hours with Brimstone missiles from Eurofighter Typhoons, with their targeting pod that can find moving tanks. https://www.eurofighter.com/the-aircraft

    But RAF is advanced, is because Great Britain is a wealthy hi-tech country, with money for training its pilots, advanced equipment, centuries of military training. Even RAF pilots have around 200 hours of training in air per year. (Almost double training hours of Russian air force pilots). It’s because RAF has much more money available.

    There is no possibility Ukraine could become like this, as Ukraine is a postsoviet country without much money available for a modern air force.

    One of the “hi-tech” equipments of Ukraine, is using DJI phantoms to throw an improvised version of RKG-1600 against parked vehicles at night.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  288. Wokechoke says:
    @Dmitry

    Goose Green is one of the great examples of a professional officer buffing a victory in recent history.

  289. Aedib says:
    @LatW

    Azovites are not heroes. They are (they were) brutal occupiers on the ancestral land of Donbass people.

    • Replies: @AP
  290. AP says:
    @Aedib

    Azovites are not heroes. They are (they were) brutal occupiers on the ancestral land of Donbass people.

    Azov is centered in Kharkiv but are mostly eastern Ukrainians. There are certainly some natives of Donbas among them, here is one who died:

    https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D0%B4%D1%96%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2_%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80_%D0%9E%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%87

  291. songbird says:

    Will Warhol’s art be worth crap all in 2100?

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  292. Dmitry says:

    BMP-2 in a war zone, continues to have these results. BMP-2 like a human barbeque machine cooking its crew to ashes.

    BMP was not very protected in 1973 almost 50 years ago, in the Yom Kippur war, used by Egyptian and Syrian forces (almost 120 BMP-1 of Syria and Egypt, were lost in October 1973).

    Since the Afghan war (1979-1989), it has been common for soldiers to sit on the outside of BMP-2 due to its lack of comfort or protection.

    In 2010, even BMP-3 (introduced 1990) has been described by General Vladimir Popovkin as the “metal coffin”. In 2022, BMP-2 is still the main vehicle.

    It is like smaller recreation (small exhibit in the museum) for some scenes of the Maikop at Central Railway Station in Grozny in 1 January 1995, where mainly BMP-2 were actually what journalists say were “tanks” destroyed.

  293. Mr. Hack says:
    @songbird

    They’re going up in value in AZ. A couple of years ago you could buy an original for \$.50. Today, they’re selling for about \$1.00/can: 🙂

    [MORE]

    • LOL: songbird
  294. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10674293/Ukraines-Zelenskiy-says-situation-places-tough-fires-officials.html

    Looks like Putin isn’t the only one irritated by underlings’ performance. I wonder if they were advocating for letting the South and East go to consolidate efforts? That might explain Zelensky’s charge of betraying their oath to defend Ukraine.

  295. Ron Unz says:
    @Dmitry

    Air defense is not hermetic. Russia could surely destroy NATO HQ building in Brussels with even old subsonic cruise missiles and NATO could destroy a palace building in the Kremlin with subsonic Tomahawk missiles as response (as the air defense is not at all hermetic).

    Maybe, but maybe not.

    Until recently, I’ve only very rarely visited the Karlin threads, so I don’t really have a good sense of who you are. But my casual impression is that you’re some young Russian of pro-Western or even Neoconish leanings, who’s very enthusiastic about videos. You’ve mostly cluttered up these threads so so many videos including Reddit videos that people complained to me. Therefore, I’d guess you’re much more likely to be some sort of video-gamer expert than someone with the serious knowledge of military matters you seem to spout off about.

    I’m absolutely no military expert myself, but I don’t pretend to be. Based upon the experience in Syria, I think Russia’s S-300s and S-400s have been pretty effective at shooting down American cruise missiles under difficult conditions, and I’d assume Moscow’s defenses are filled with them. So I’d be pretty skeptical of your claim that America could currently destroy a Kremlin building with a salvo of our existing cruise missiles. Can you find any knowledgeable person who believes what you’re saying?

    Meanwhile, I’d think our anti-missile systems would have a reasonable chance of protecting NATO HQ against Russian subsonic cruise missiles but almost no chance against hypersonic ones.

    • Replies: @Sean
    , @Wokechoke
    , @Dmitry
  296. Sean says:
    @Dmitry

    Currently in the Russian air force there are no planes with targeting pods and you can see the effect now in Ukraine with no attacks with e.g. guided weapons against moving targets.

    Not sure about this. I think they have those kind of planes but not the smart bombs for the planes to use from a safe distance which has led to them losing some of their best planes. I have read the sanctions since 2014 have put a stop to Russian manufacture of smart bombs, because they use foreign components that Russia can only acquire in small quantities at huge cost.

    Air defense is not hermetic. Russia could surely destroy NATO HQ building in Brussels with even old subsonic cruise missiles and NATO could destroy a palace building in the Kremlin with subsonic Tomahawk missiles as response (as the air defense is not at all hermetic).

    The response to hitting Nato HQ would hardly be hitting any building in the Kremlin, because the response to hitting a building on the Kremlin with a conventional cruise missile would be to attack something similarly in Washington DC. Also,. the Russians may not be able to shoot down a cruise missile but they probably would know it was coming, but not not know it was a not a nuclear cruise missile heading for Moscow.

    Thee miniature cruise missiles called switchblade drones and other advanced technology US weapons are going to be more relevant in the coming months. They may in the quantities the US is cabale of supplying them, take an unsustainable toll on the Russian army even though it is now going to have the advantages of defence around kiev and shorter supply lines in the east, The question is will America really try to give Ukraine everything it asks for? If so Russia will be heading for real military defeat, and at that point they might up the anti with a strike on some Nato facility to signal that they will escalate before accepting a loss. I do not think America will let it come to that, because Putin failing and saving face is the preferred US outcome. An actual clear defeat of Putin’s forces by Ukraine is not something America really ought to want, because it would be too destablising.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  297. Sean says:
    @Ron Unz

    Gaming is not without relevance, this fellow is interesting

  298. @Philip Owen

    Chile is an interesting case. It’s had some mid level manufacturing like electric motors for a long time. Also a route into the Spanish language market for software. A place to grow a bit before being taken out by the big Anglo firms.


    Chile’s per capita GDP is very close to Poland’s so the two become natural comparisons. Neither is especially impressive on innovation when you measure their investment into R&D. South Korea had a much higher share of their GDP invested into R&D at a comparable stage of development. But at least Poland is slowly moving up whereas Chile is stuck at the bottom.

    Given Chile’s lackluster interest in innovation, it’s hard to see how they could become a base for software exports or any other high-skill activity. It’s a classic “resource curse” country.

    A relatively modernized country with a good lifestyle

    I think this is the real draw. Chile has nice weather and a laid-back culture (very reminiscent of Spain’s reputation in Europe), so perhaps it can be lucrative for individual so-called “digital nomads” to move to, but a serious base of innovation seem to be off the cards.

    So, it has increasingly strict immigration laws but probably has ways of letting in the skilled

    Chile’s anti-immigration riots should be seen in the context of the former president Michelet letting in a very large amount of Haitian immigrants, who had very little possibility of integrating into the local economy. The recent anti-Venezuelan riots are largely for the same reason. There’s also a racial subtext. A significant fraction of Venezuelan citizens are either wholly or partly of black ancestry and there is a color hierarchy in Latinx America just as there is everywhere else.

    However, now that Biden is becoming ever more liberal on border enforcement, perhaps Chile will see most of them simply move northwards towards the US-Mexico border.

  299. Sean says:
    @Wokechoke

    As you say, Russian forces will benefit from concentrating on Donetsk because there they will have the shorter supply lines and start from position to close a huge pocket. But the forces left near Kiev are going to be very vulnerable, berms or not.

  300. LondonBob says:
    @Thulean Friend

    I wonder how high NATO losses have been, couple of hundred I would guess.

  301. German_reader says:
    @LatW

    But Germany apparently did an inventory and said there was very little left of use.

    It’s claimed they were stored inadequately and have been affected by mould.
    Last thing I read is that Germany is looking into buying arms for Ukraine from arms manufacturers. Existing stocks in Germany are too low apparently.

  302. SafeNow says:

    “On an individual level, one of the positive effects of war is that it makes people feel more alive, alert, and awake. In James’ words, it “redeem[s] life from flat degeneration.” It supplies meaning and purpose, transcending the monotony of everyday life. As James puts it, “Life seems cast upon a higher plane of power.” Warfare also enables the expression of higher human qualities that often lie dormant in ordinary life, such as discipline, courage, unselfishness, and self-sacrifice.”

    From an old “Psychology Today” article. Okay, this is not rigorous journal, but the point rings true for me as I observe how U.S. politicians of both parties, and media, have a new-found spring in their heel. And of course, one immediately associates the phrase “flat degeneration” with the U.S. President. Many people are critical of psychologists, but war-related behavioral dynamics deserve serious attention right now. Maybe world leaders would recognize themselves in such essays, and alter their behavior.

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @A123
  303. German_reader says:
    @utu

    This is strange for people who are savvy enough to manipulate the whole rightoid sphere in the West to become their supporters to the point that every rightoid is a de facto Putinoid now.

    You’re really the ultimate authoritarian normie. Can’t be long before you demand that right-wingers (real ones, not the fake centrist whores) should be locked away, because they’re all “Russian assets” anyway. iirc you’ve already demanded in the past anyway that Jared Taylor and other racists and “IQists” should be sent to prison, so such solutions come easily to you.
    One of the worst results of this war is that the outrage at Russia’s actions in Ukraine (justified on the whole, even though it’s selective and media-driven) gives new legitimacy to the globohomo system and empowers people like you who will cheer on on yet more repression of any dissenting opinions.

    • Replies: @utu
    , @silviosilver
    , @Mr. Hack
    , @LatW
  304. If this just not some April Fool’s day prank, then true Ho Lee Fuk succesful mission from UA helis onto RF Belgorod city oil depot happened last night:

    reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/ttjb1d/two_ukrainian_attack_helicopters_flying_low_over/

    • Replies: @German_reader
    , @AP
  305. German_reader says:
    @sudden death

    Russia seems to have confirmed it.
    I wonder if this embarrassing incident has any larger implications for the state of Russia’s air defenses.

  306. German_reader says:

    Russian elites (and Russian society in general) rallying around Putin and supporting the war (with some Western actions possibly being counter-productive):
    https://faridaily.substack.com/p/now-were-going-to-fck-them-all-whats?s=r
    The bit about biolaboratories developing weapons against Slavs is just grotesque, that claim has some very strange implications.

  307. AP says:
    @sudden death

    Ukrainian government seems to deny it and claim false flag on the day of Russian mobilization. Which may be a smart thing to claim even if Ukraine did do it. Previously and air field and ammo dump have been bombed in Belgorod which is near the border. Would be funny (but unlikely) if Ukrainian forces that have pushed the Russians away from Kharkiv already managed to take or besiege Belgorod.

    Revenge for the hundreds of innocent cows that the retreating Russians machine gunned?

    • Replies: @sudden death
    , @Wokechoke
  308. If there hadn’t been all those immigrants in California, the black population, and thus the money to be paid, would have been much higher.

    • Replies: @Brás Cubas
  309. @Brás Cubas

    Sorry, wrong place. I should have posted this on Steve Sailer’s blog.

  310. A123 says: • Website
    @SafeNow

    one immediately associates the phrase “flat degeneration” with the U.S. President. Many people are critical of psychologists, but war-related behavioral dynamics deserve serious attention right now.

    The fight must be moral to generate a patriotic response from the public. Not-The-President Biden has taken bribes. His potential successor has traded sexual favours for political advancement. Neither one has a viable appeal to patriotism.

    Any war attempt by the failing regime will be viewed suspiciously. The Air Force effectively scuttled the fake President’s “No Fly Zone” initiative for Ukraine by making it clear a Authorization for Use of Military Force [AUMF] would be required.

    That leaves Syria as the only open, current deployment that could be pumped. The White House occupant has been ordered to cravenly surrender at the JCPOA2 table. Attacking Iranian troops in Syria would not be permitted by his European WEF puppet masters.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
  311. Wokechoke says:
    @Ron Unz

    I expected the Russians up north would drive around doing a lot of shooting. Then leave.
    I didn’t contemplate a rather larger capture of the Dneiper estuary happening at the same time. Dnieper is something like the Mississipi or Rhine for the Ukrainians.

    The airlanding at various airports seems to have been an attempt at a coup but the Russians never had more than 30,000 soldiers in Belorussia. They couldn’t have captured a capital city with 5 million unless there was serious bluffing and local support to welcome them. In the end the supply column was a FUSAG sort of deception it appears to have not existed.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @V. K. Ovelund
  312. @A123

    Does Hunter Biden get performance reviews?

    Imagine his supe telling him “what you need to do is go on Oprah break down in tears and plead that you don’t know what came over you and you will do your best to make amends. Maybe say you are lucky you aren’t in Roman Empire where your only possible maneuver would be to disembowel yourself with your sword. Something like that. Use your own words.”

    • LOL: A123
  313. @AP

    imho for RF type true false flag and rage incitement would have been more useful to strike some commie block instead of that oil depot then to show all those civilian victims and announce on all prop channels it was UA Tochka rocket or something like that on all available domestic&abroad propaganda channels.

    • Agree: AP
    • Replies: @LatW
  314. Wokechoke says:
    @AP

    They could have come ingrowing season and trampled the fields.

  315. AP says:
    @Wokechoke

    Nonsense. The Russians (like their tools here) were expecting the Ukrainian government and elites to flee Kiev and for resistance to be unorganized and ad hoc. For this purpose, elite paratroopers and a couple 10,000 troops including lots of OMON would have been sufficient and appropriate. Instead they fell into a trap.

    Very unlikely that the Russians would have deliberately allowed a lot of their elite paratroopers to be recklessly wasted like this in a false flag. This is just your cope. Instead it looks like the Russian really were going for a quick decapitation. Mass firings in Moscow further support that this was a major error.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @Mikhail
  316. A123 says: • Website

    It s worth repeating — The purpose of the Ukraine fight is WEF Elites maximizing the number of refugees. The fight will be extended for the maximum length of time. Ukraine defense will be helped and anything that can be used for offense will be quashed.

    Zerohedge asked the question “Who is coming across the border?”. In multiple cases the results are non-Ukrainians (1)

    More than 50 migrants clashed on Saturday night during a riot at a refugee facility in Munich as chairs and paving stones were used as weapons, prompting a huge police response.

    Bild cited a police source who said the overwhelming majority of the “refugees” were from the Sinti and Roma ethnic groups and that, “Only a fraction are really Ukrainian refugees.”

    “They have brand-new Ukrainian passports, which are also real. Someone in Ukraine is making a fortune right now,” the newspaper quoted the police representative as saying.

    The fight at the asylum center broke out “after authorities attempted to separate some of the individuals who have scabies,”

    The official Twitter account of the Roscommon GAA Gaelic football team recently deleted a tweet which showed that around half of the “Ukrainian refugees” they welcomed to a game weren’t exactly Slavic-looking.

    The reality of the situation is clear; Economic migrants from Africa, the Middle East and South Asia are cynically exploiting the Ukrainian refugee wave to abuse the system and get free accommodation and welfare in European countries with poor vetting systems.

    This comes at the expense of genuine Ukrainian refugees who need urgent help.

    The next phase of replacement is already being foretold. The groundwork is being laid for Food Shortage — Mass African Migration.

    Will Zemmour win in France and block the next round African Muslim invaders?

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/someone-making-fortune-out-giving-non-ukrainian-migrants-fake-ukrainian-passports

    • Replies: @S
  317. Max Payne says:

    There is some kind of signal processing revolution in the Russian military that allows mid-flight hypersonic missile maneuvers and highly effective electronic warfare platforms. I haven’t found anything in Russian (not that I read Russian….)

    Terms of importance: Radiophotonics. Fiber optics. Photonic processors/Analog-digital CPUs.

    A series of technologies developed upon and matured for cost-effective target and computing solutions on the battlefield.

    11-GHz-Bandwidth Photonic Radar using MHz Electronics:
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/lpor.202100549

    PHOTONIC SIGNAL PROCESSING:
    https://www.ursi.org/proceedings/procGA02/papers/p0598.pdf

    I can only imagine the military implications of an integrated sensor network utilizing such a system (such as an S-300/400 battery or the new line of alpha strike missiles such as the Kinzhal, etc.).

    Not only in high resolution radar targeting (as in that paper) but also in signal discrimination for jamming or interception.

    As for the hybrid CPU it seems to be an attempt to speed up signal processing across multiple sensors by reducing the bottleneck clock speeds of digital signal processors.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  318. utu says:
    @German_reader

    One of the worst results of this war is that the outrage at Russia’s actions in Ukraine (justified on the whole, even though it’s selective and media-driven) gives new legitimacy to the globohomo system and empowers people like you who will cheer on on yet more repression of any dissenting opinions.

    You forget about the victory of globohomo in Moscow and its subsequent triumphalism. New secular tradition will be established to celebrated the victory over Putin’s Russia by performing Pussy Riot Musical in the Main Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces where in the finale Karlin like figure of Russian nationalist is sodomized by a huge Negro in Ukrainian folk costume and at the moment of the climactic ecstasy on Karlin’s face a ballet of twats like you in tutus dance in throwing rainbow petals and singing Cohen’s Hallelujah.

    BTW, You should not worry about repression of dissenting thoughts because you personally haven’t had one in whole your life and I doubt you will ever have because dissenting opinions are a function of courage which you lack.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
    , @Barbarossa
  319. LondonBob says:

    Interesting the ultra neocon Times is worrying about a peace deal on their front page, accusing France, Germany and even the US of pushing for one. Sounds like the Russians have stepped up attacks in the Donbass, I expect once the Ukrainian army in Donbass is defeated and Mariupol is liberated a peace deal will be signed.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
  320. @German_reader

    One of the worst results of this war is that the outrage at Russia’s actions in Ukraine (justified on the whole, even though it’s selective and media-driven) gives new legitimacy to the globohomo system

    Absolutely.

    Just as resistance was (finally!) beginning to spread deep into Normieville, with Democrats set to get decimated and RINOs unseated by MAGAs in the midterms, globohomo is granted a new lease on life by Russia – the very country whose rejection of globohomo values many us hoped to hold up as a model worth emulating.

    We’re cursed, lol.

  321. AP says:
    @silviosilver

    Well, Russian communists spoiled “socialism”or pro-worker policies due to association with the rotten Sovok regime, now Russia is playing the same role with respect to western right wing causes. Just as before, western useful idiots who shill for Russia contribute to this discreditation.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack, utu
  322. @utu

    BTW, You should not worry about repression of dissenting thoughts because you personally haven’t had one in whole your life and I doubt you will ever have because dissenting opinions are a function of courage which you lack.

    Even in one of your (very common!) fits of rage, I don’t know what would possess you to say something so obviously moronic. I have read through many of your debates with various posters here, and I used to think you provided intelligent arguments against positions that I supported. I was aware you could become unreasonable when it was clear you were being trounced, but that is a perfectly ordinary human reaction and I made allowance for it.

    What has since become increasingly clear to me, however, is that, at bottom, you are just a bitter, babbling old fool. Unable to come to terms with realities that even you, deep down, are are aware are all too real, you simply lash out at anyone who points out their sociopolitical significance.

    • Agree: German_reader
    • Replies: @utu
    , @AP
  323. @silviosilver

    Speaking realistically it’s still not all over for those Putler bootlicking alleged antiglobohomists – Orban, Le Pen or Trump altogether have not that bad chances to win next elections in Hungary, France and USA.

  324. German_reader says:

    BTW, You should not worry about repression of dissenting thoughts because you personally haven’t had one in whole your life

    Lol. I live in a state where I would be declared an enemy of the constitution, to be put under surveillance and to be destroyed socially, if I openly said even a fraction of what I’ve written here, and you lecture me with your stupid normie takes.
    Reading your comments really makes me think it might not be all bad if this whole Ukraine mess blows up into a nuclear war, at least it would finally shut you up.

    • Agree: Thulean Friend, Wielgus
  325. German_reader says:
    @silviosilver

    is granted a new lease on life by Russia – the very country whose rejection of globohomo values many us hoped to hold up as a model worth emulating.

    Indeed. Fuck Russia and Russians for their stupid war, their war crimes and their moronic propaganda about biolabs or whatever that makes anyone look like a cretin who falls for it, fuck the Poles and Balts who delude themselves they can pursue their resentment-driven chauvinist projects while being loyal American vassals, fuck the Western normies with their endless bouts of media-induced hysteria, and fuck the pro-Russian Western right-wingers who believe in the most blatant Russian propaganda too. I hate all of them.
    The only decent people might be the Nazis from Azov, my respect goes out to them, but unfortunately they’ll lose either way.

    • LOL: Thulean Friend
    • Replies: @iffen
  326. @LondonBob

    Oh come on, you’re full on Moscow Bob now. Your comment history is a hilarious collection of oddly quasi-paranoid copes. You must recognise this. Are you English or did you just attend a provincial public school?

  327. A123 says: • Website
    @silviosilver

    Russia backed NS2, which was about WEF Elites forcing IslamoGloboHomo on Christian European nations such as Hungary. Now that NS2 is dead, Putin has a unique opportunity to drop IslamoGloboHomo and return to Christian (Orthodox) values. As MAGA wins in the U.S., America is on a trajectory to Christian, non-woke Protestant traditional values.

    Christian nations such as Hungary, Russia, and the U.S. are natural allies once the SJW contamination of Muslim leaders (e.g. Omar and Tlaib) are placed on the run.

    PEACE 😇

  328. Mr. Hack says:
    @German_reader

    I appreciate your nuanced and critical views that you so often share with us here. As for utu’s ability to influence the globohomo system’s moral authority in the world today and ability to neutralize rightoid writers and their thought patterns, I think that they are doing a pretty good job of it and are responsible for putting themselves out of business. There are probably close to 15 articles right now circulating within this UNZ blogsite, all unfairly critical and unbalanced regarding Ukraine’s role in today’s war. I read them with unbelief sometimes and wonder about their real motivations? Even Michael Hudson’s latest entry (otherwise a fine entry) is slanted against Ukraine. They all seem to blame Ukraine for this catastrophe, even though all that Ukraine is trying to do is defend itself against a truly unbalanced aggressor.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    , @utu
    , @A123
  329. German_reader says:
    @Mr. Hack

    The pieces published on UR are certainly extremely one-sided and mostly just pro-Russian propaganda, but I don’t think it can be said Western “rightoids” in general are all pro-Russian stooges. Uncritical pro-Russian views exist, but my impression is Western right-wingers are split on the issue (this seems to be the case with AfD in Germany where you have a range of positions from belief in the most idiotic propaganda about Ukrainian biolabs to sentiments of the “hopefully Putin will soon be gone” kind; or look at Sailer’s commenters on this site here). Many probably didn’t expect Russia to resort to such blatantly brutal means and are now confused about how to adjust their views.
    Anyway, my issue with utu isn’t so much that he criticizes pro-Russian views on the right in Western countries, certainly there is a lot to criticize with good reason here. My issue is rather that he seems to believe there is no reason at all for discontent with the state and trajectory of Western societies, that such sentiments are all due just to Russian subversion (instead of legitimate grievances that could possibly have been exploited by Russia), and that everything would basically be fine if it weren’t for Russia’s evil influence. Which is just absurd imo.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    , @Beckow
  330. Boethiuss says:

    Well, Russian communists spoiled “socialism”or pro-worker policies due to association with the rotten Sovok regime, now Russia is playing the same role with respect to western right wing causes. Just as before, western useful idiots who shill for Russia contribute to this discreditation.

    Yeah no shit. The people talking about “globohomo” in the same sentence as a reason to support Russia are suckers.

    Somewhere over the rainbow, there probably is a world where Vladimir Putin opposes mass migrations from Middle East and North Africa to Central and Eastern Europe. And somewhere close to that, there is probably also a world where Putin opposes transgenderism and other weird sexual expressions.

    But clearly none of these are important, at least not important for Putin. What Putin wants is to take over Ukraine, and now that’s off the table to pursue the war aims related to Ukraine and extract whatever he can and minimize the damage to Russia as best as he can.

    Right wingers from US or other places getting suckered on this globohomo business is a fkkking disgrace.

    • Agree: LatW
  331. utu says:
    @silviosilver

    “I don’t know what would possess you to say something so obviously moronic.” – Do you actually have evidence of GR’s courage? Six minute after you GR wrote: “I live in a state where I would be declared an enemy of the constitution, to be put under surveillance and to be destroyed socially”. which means that he has no courage or his dissenting thoughts – if he has any, are not worth expressing which is exactly what I have written.

    No, you did not mean to address what I have written about GR. You got upset by the Pussy Riot Musical but you are too timid – what is it with cowardliness among the rightoids? – to address it so you misdirected to GR just to be able to tell me that I am an old fool. You are also dishonest.

    The hopelessness with the rightoids is that they are usually very stupid, cowardly and dishonest which is one reason why they cling to Putin. The well know process of coalescence of excrements floating in water.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  332. Beckow says:
    @LatW

    You have created a narrative that is not true, but I won’t change your mind. Russia simply maneuvered in the north and north-east to tie down Kiev forces. It worked. A massive frontal attack against an entrenched and resupplied Ukie army in Donbass wouldn’t work – it is still a rough going even with Ukies having to defend all over.

    They said that they don’t want Kiev, it made no military sense to attack it, and they had no resources there to do it – you are making up the narrative as a palliative for the other losses. The thing about “demiltarised” Russia is intriguing, are you heading towards Moscow any day now?

    • LOL: Mr. Hack
  333. German_reader says:
    @utu

    I’ve never claimed to be courageous. But courage isn’t linked to having dissenting thoughts and opinions, merely with their public expression, so your entire argument doesn’t make any sense. You obviously don’t want to address the repression against right-wingers in Western societies that is real and getting worse, either because you agree with it or because it just doesn’t register with you.
    In any case, there’s not much point to having a “discussion” with you.

    • Agree: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @utu
  334. utu says:
    @Mr. Hack

    “Even Michael Hudson” -In his first article after Russia invaded right after Punit’s speech he wrote in Kremlinist propaganda language referring to Nazis and neo-Nazis in Ukraine. I had higher expectation from him but on the second thought what should you expect from somebody who curates library of Trotsky’s manuscripts. Apparently it goes in his family.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  335. Beckow says:
    @AP

    This is not about honesty but about what we can observe. You are the only one convinced that there were only 4.3k Ukies defending Mariupol. It doesn’t match many of the facts coming out, but we don’t have a full accounting – and maybe never will.

    In general, Russia holds information back and doesn’t seem to care much for PR other than at home. Ukraine is all over the map claiming things that are true, half-true and outright made up – they are more active in the story management. But you can learn from both if you take that into account.

    • Agree: Mikhail
    • Replies: @AP
  336. Mr. Hack says:
    @German_reader

    These authors (bloggers) are here by design. I had a dialogue with Ron Unz recently about the Maidan massacre. He admitted that the evidence pointing towards the Russian side of the street from were the shootings took place was solid and even “scientific” but yet he couldn’t bring himself to admit that it was convincing, due to some sort of “political” interference. I guess that politics is more important than “scientific evidence”? 🙂

    • Replies: @German_reader
    , @Ron Unz
  337. It’s absurd to say that this war was a “lifeline” for the liberal order. Anyone who says that is in a delusional state of mind. The reason why rightoids lose is because they are narrow sectarians. Liberals know how to co-operate and understand it often entails compromising on national objectives in order to strengthen the larger whole.

    We already had a live test of which system was the strongest during the 20th century and liberalism destroyed all its competitors. The outcome of this war will not materially change the underlying reality that Russia’s best days are past and it will forever be weaker than its Western counterparts. The best it can hope for is to play second fiddle and as a junior partner to a much stronger China.

    We should also be careful not to conflate all forms of nationalisms with rightoid ideology. Nationalism, after all, was often seen and attacked as a liberal project during the 19th century by romantic localists who did not wish to see their peripheral identity swallowed up into a much larger whole. This is something I did not appreciate fully until Mearsheimer wrote about it in his latest book, which I recently read. Even highly liberal societies like the US can simultaneously be very nationalistic under certain circumstances. Don’t underestimate this.

    Indeed, even Russian nationalism as it is configured today has space for mixed-race individuals like Karlin and has a multi-ethnic army. Putin may be socially conservative on gender/LGBT but he’s a liberal on other metrics. Hardly a perfect model for ethnic sectarians in the West.

    • Agree: sudden death
    • Replies: @Coconuts
    , @Wokechoke
    , @songbird
  338. A123 says: • Website
    @Mr. Hack

    They all seem to blame Ukraine for this catastrophe, even though all that Ukraine is trying to do is defend itself against a truly unbalanced aggressor.

    Looking at the incorrect players produces poor analysis. A binary between Russia & Ukraine is misleading.

    Q: Why are two Orthodox Christian nations fighting each other?
    A: Both Ukraine and Russia have been badly misused to advance the interests of Islamic Globalism.

    Russia is not an unbalanced aggressor. They have legitimate grievances against Muslim Globalist expansionism. Ukraine never should have chosen to ally with George IslamoSoros and his Open [Muslim] Borders NGO’s. However, that makes Ukraine a sucker (and a victim) in the service of the Great Replacement.

    What Ukraine needs is a leader who will join the fight against SJW Jihadists . Such a figure should be able to negotiate a tolerable outcome with Russia. For Zelensky to be that person, he has to realizes that the WEF Islamophiles do not want (and will never allow) Ukraine to win. Ukraine has been tricked into a hopeless war to generate refugees that enable non-Christian migration into Europe.

    One cannot underestimate the cynicism and evil of the WEF Elites led by George IslamoSoros. The Globalist “Forever Wars” of Davos are a tool that serves Open [Muslim] Borders and other Anti-Christian machinations. Burning a Christian nation, like Ukraine, to the ground is a furtherance of Woke-slam’s aggression.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  339. Mr. Hack says:
    @utu

    Outside of the uncritical distortion of some of the Ukrainian players in this war, what did you think of his latest entry? I’m going to reread it today and perhaps try to formulate and send him a comment. There was something about Ukraine that I think that he got literally “ass backwards” when I read it last night, that I wanted to query him about…….

    • Replies: @utu
  340. German_reader says:
    @Mr. Hack

    I guess that politics is more important than “scientific evidence”?

    UR has a certain line that is reflected in much of the content, in that regard it isn’t any different from mainstream sites…you can’t expect a genuine desire for truthfulness in most of the pieces published here.
    The main advantage of the site imo is the superb commenting system which allows for open discussion.

    • Agree: Coconuts
  341. Aedib says:

    Any confirmation about NATO officers trapped in Azovstal?

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  342. @utu

    repression of dissenting thoughts because you personally haven’t had one in whole your life and I doubt you will ever have because dissenting opinions are a function of courage which you lack

    I can’t speak to German-reader’s courage or lack of it, since this is, after all, an internet forum. As for dissenting opinions it seems like he has plenty. It’s not like he’s checking off some laundry list of Comfortable German Establishment Opinions with his views. Sadly, you’ll have to put more work into your next insulting diatribe if you want it to land anywhere.

    • Thanks: German_reader
  343. Mr. Hack says:
    @A123

    Your whole take is ridiculous and suspect. You make it sound as if Ukraine’s main partner in this war is George Soros. Unless you believe that Soros controls the US and all of the rest of the western world, this is a ridiclous position to hold.

    Ukraine is in no position to be too picky in whom it reaches out to and tries to gets some help. Its aggressor is large and is well funded. Ukraine’s historic quest is to rid itself of Russian imperialistic designs and enjoy the political freedoms of its neighbors, who’ve already achieved this laudable goal, including your very own Slovakia. A lot of Muslim Caucasians are in no hurry to support Putin and his war against Ukraine. I ran into my neighbor (an Uzbeki Turk) last night and he was quick to share with me some photos within his smart phone. He showed me some photos of his yonger cousins within Ukraine that were fighting the Russians on the Ukrainian side. They had started out on the Russian side, but decided to switch sides, once in Ukraine. I’m pretty sure that the plan is to eventually get these cousins over to the US (they’re a very clannish people). He told me that he has no love for Russia, for he spent many years living there, and was never able to get any sort of paperwork from the Russian bureaucrats, formalizing his Russian status. He said that America is a great country, for within several years, he was able to gain citizenship. Judging by the car(s) that he drives and his beautiful home, America has indeed been good to my neighbor.

    After proofreading, I realized that I got you mixed up with Beckos. I decided to not make any corrections, for lately you and him sound exactly alike. If you could convince him to support Trump, you’d be identical twins! 🙂

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @A123
  344. AP says:
    @silviosilver

    The first paragraph was a well executed prose poem though.

    • Disagree: songbird
    • Replies: @songbird
  345. utu says:
    @German_reader

    “In any case, there’s not much point to having a “discussion” with you.” – So why do you keep starting discussions with me. My comment #200 was to Triteleia Laxa to which you responded calling me “authoritarian normie”.

    Apparently it very much does not agree with you that I emphasize Russian subversion. You wrote to Mr. Hack:

    My issue is rather that [utu] seems to believe there is no reason at all for discontent with the state and trajectory of Western societies, that such sentiments are all due just to Russian subversion (instead of legitimate grievances that could possibly have been exploited by Russia), and that everything would basically be fine if it weren’t for Russia’s evil influence.

    and I remember you were totally against my supposition that there were Kremlin fingers in the Freedom Convoy in Canada to paralyze Ottawa government prior to the invasion of Ukraine.

    Obviously you misconstrue, purposefully I think, because I do recognize legitimate reasons for discontent on the Right though believing that vaccines have nano-self-assembling chips is not one of them. Russian propaganda does not care which reasons are legitimate and which are not. It will stoke any reasons as long they get traction and as long as they undermine trust in Wester culture, institutions, governments, policies. Basically anything goes as long as it is subversive.

    And where do you see that I say or believe that everything would be find if it was not for Russia? But now Russia is the problem number one. There are no greater problems than Russia. After the dragon is slew and Russian cries uncle other problems can be dealt with like for example the preponderance of twats in Germany.

    I think that in some comments I have expressed som hope that because of this war that Russia started some problems will get new solutions. I think I wrote that war on climate change will be put on the back burner. That perhaps Germany will resurrect its nuclear energy to which, iirc, you in your usual twatty way objected. That perhaps there will be stronger resolve against non-European immigration. That pathological feminism will be subdued during war.

    Anyway, not seeing the role of the scope of Russian subversion demonstrates your naivety that you are like a sleepwalker. This deserve a special normie label.

  346. AP says:
    @Beckow

    You are the only one convinced that there were only 4.3k

    I’m not even necessarily convinced; those are simply the only specific figures I’ve seen. They are from Russian wiki. I tried to confirm or disconfirm by looking up the identified Ukrainian units but saw numbers for only one – 1,200 soldiers, a couple of years ago. This would match the 4300 number.

    Can you give me a link to other numbers? Hopefully not Russian propaganda sources?

    • Replies: @Beckow
  347. Beckow says:
    @German_reader

    So the question is: does the Western moral collapse and demographic undoing matter when history is being made by arms? Are they even related?

    A few realities we already had by February 2022:
    – West was fully ruled by uber-liberalism whose policies became increasingly absurd; liberals controlled all institutions and there was little dissent allowed.

    – Liberalism was not only on the march at home, but became aggressive all over the world with funding, NGOs, global institutions, and occasional military expeditions – you hate to be reminded of the military aspect of liberalism, but it happened.

    – By 2022 the material basis for the liberal control was very wobbly: West is making few things and lives off its elevated status and “soft power”. In other words: control others’ minds and aspirations in order to get their resources and cheap labor – ingenious, but not sustainable.

    – The rest of the world – 80% by population – is dissatisfied. The West continues to buy key members (compradors), but in the process undermines what is left of the original Western civilization.

    In February Russia pounced with an old-fashioned power move seeking more security and enlargement of its domain. Two completely different universes are now colliding. Neither one can fully prevail, they will probably just separate into two better-defined opposing camps. The Western liberal idiocies will harden and allow less dissent. Same with Russia’s security concerns.

    It was generally accepted that the West was in full global control so the new development is a loss. The liberals are angry – and so are the previously conservative dissenters since this puts them in a no-win position. Tough: for years they blissfully allowed the out-of-control global liberalism to do pretty much anything they dreamt off with no consequences. Did you actually think this would just go on and on?

    Let’s see if the soft power can still tame the unruly rebellious natives. We will find out soon.

  348. utu says:
    @Mr. Hack

    I have stopped reading pretty much all articles that Ron Unz publishes in his webzine. There is only one common denominator: America delenda est.. This jihadism against America and the West is a serious psychopathology. I do not think that Ron Unz likes Russia or China. He just hates America and wants it to be humiliated and even destroyed. If Russia does it with its Wunderwaffe, it is perfectly fine with him. His obsession with humiliation of America is so strong that he is willing to suspend his judgment and intelligence and accept any views from the most dubious sources as long as they forward his obsession.

  349. songbird says:
    @AP

    Here is a bit of well executed poetry:

    Lonely antagonists of Destiny,
    That went down scornful before many spears,
    Who, soon as we are born, are straight our friends;
    And live in simple music, country songs,
    And mournful ballads by the winter fire,

    It is not something Sigmund Freud would write, while he was taking cocaine. Not something full of disgusting scatological and homosexual references.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Barbarossa
  350. German_reader says:
    @utu

    and I remember you were totally against my supposition that there were Kremlin fingers in the Freedom Convoy in Canada to paralyze Ottawa government prior to the invasion of Ukraine.

    Your sources were all bs, with ridiculous “experts” claiming it’s Russian subversion when right-wingers on the net troll people into voting per text message (anybody who’s stupid enough to fall for that shouldn’t be allowed to vote anyway). Sure, it’s certainly likely Russia is trying to exploit discontent in Western societies. People definitely shouldn’t rely on Russia today (when one could still read it) for information, clearly there’s an agenda there. But your comments basically amount to giving a free pass to the likes of Justin Trudeau, that everything they’re doing is basically fine, and if you don’t agree you’re a “Russian asset” who’s in favour of Putin’s troops killing Ukrainian civilians through indiscriminate shelling.
    Regarding Corona, I’m triple-vaccinated myself, but there has definitely been massive overreach and hysteria by the liberal establishment (one acquaintance, on her way to becoming a professor, literally told me “The unvaccinated need to be punished”)…that’s on them, not on Russia.

    But now Russia is the problem number one. There are no greater problems than Russia. After the dragon is slew and Russian cries uncle other problems can be dealt with like for example the preponderance of twats in Germany.

    “Dragon is slain”? What’s that even supposed to mean? Do you think Russia will be defeated like Germany in 1945, occupied and re-constructed? Dream on. It’s much more likely that this conflict will go on for decades, with many disastrous side effects.
    Doesn’t mean that one should accomodate Putin and his crazy imperialist visions at any price, Ukraine needs to fight on until at least the most outrageous demands (like annexation of territory beyond the prewar borders) are dropped, but your optimism is bizarre.

    I think I wrote that war on climate change will be put on the back burner. That perhaps Germany will resurrect its nuclear energy to which, iirc, you in your usual twatty way objected. That perhaps there will be stronger resolve against non-European immigration. That pathological feminism will be subdued during war.

    Because these things are only happening in your fucking imagination and have no basis in reality. Germany’s idiotic government is doubling down on Energiewende, not considering a return to nuclear power, so there’ll be a massive energy crisis soon. German industry will become uncompetitive (certainly a lot of other Europeans will at first feel schadenfreude about this, but then there’ll be long faces, when there’s no more German money). No idea either how countries like Hungary or Bulgaria are supposed to make do without Russian gas. As for immigration, the German government is refusing all border controls, they want they refugee movement from Ukraine to be exploited by non-Europeans.
    If you think I’m the worst example of German twattery, you really have no idea.
    This war is all around bad news.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  351. LondonBob says:
    @silviosilver

    I read Orban is ahead and Le Pen is gaining on Macron…

  352. Coconuts says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Idk, it wouldn’t be surprising if the internal problems Western Liberalism is accumulating (reflected in Trans, anti-natalist Feminism, Fat Positivity, Negromania and so on) causes serious problems or some kind of implosion in the future. In the past Liberalism was never tested by something it maybe cannot deal with, its own success and hegemony.

  353. Wokechoke says:
    @Mr. Hack

    Ukraine was the largest geographic country in Europe. It’s not just justified.

  354. Wokechoke says:
    @Thulean Friend

    The head of state in Ukraine is a Jewish actor. This war is no coincidence.

  355. Wokechoke says:
    @AP

    I didn’t say false flag. Is the idiom not understood by you? False Flag would have been Russian Paratroopers storming the Kremlin in Ukrainian uniforms.

    That was a “coup de main” attempt in Kiev. It didn’t work. But the over all effect will be shrunken Ukraine with no coastline.

    • Replies: @AP
  356. AP says:
    @songbird

    Sure, but that wasn’t meant for the comment section at Unz.

  357. Beckow says:
    @AP

    You use the term “propaganda” very loosely. In practice all sides always do propaganda, it is really only a question of degree and topic. Focus and evaluate the information provided and don’t hide behind labels like propaganda, “fake”, or conspiracy. Those are simply ways for one side to devalue what the other side is saying. That doesn’t help anyone to get to the truth. Given your biases it would make no sense to provide links – you can find them easily and it is up to you to evaluate the information if you remain open-minded.

    • Replies: @AP
  358. songbird says:
    @Thulean Friend

    We already had a live test of which system was the strongest during the 20th century and liberalism destroyed all its competitors.

    Well, geography goes into systems, and systems go into geography.

    It is not surprising that the Anglo world was triumphant, especially with America, with its singularly good geography at its core. But what if that had been the H-man’s base?

    Anyway, geography goes into China’s system, and it is of a similar scale to America. Greater, when you count population. I wouldn’t count it out yet.

    And the Korean peninsula is an interesting test of systems. Wouldn’t count the Jucheists out yet, either. And they were created with the help of the Chinese. That was regional, but in opposition to the US. Imagine what might happen, when they start projecting power.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  359. A123 says: • Website
    @Mr. Hack

    You make it sound as if Ukraine’s main partner in this war is George Soros. Unless you believe that Soros controls the US and all of the rest of the western world, this is a ridiclous position to hold.

    SJW Islamic Globalists are certainly the force (not partner) that suckered Ukraine into a hopeless situation. They puppet master Not-The-President Biden from Davos.

    Who is a more consistent and powerful source of funding for SJW Muslim causes? The IslamoSoros and his Open [Muslim] Society Foundation spread hate everywhere they go. Why else would his SeaWatch NGO transporting Jihadist invaders open display Antifa and rainbow flags?

      

    It is not like I am alone. Christian Europe has pegged George IslamoSoros as a vile offender and existential threat: (1)

    If you think billionaire liberal George Soros is a horrible person, you’re not alone.

    It’s not just here in America where Soros has earned himself a reputation for being corrupt, malicious, and an ever-ready opponent of liberty. Apparently, the man who has been leading the Democrat Party for the last 20 years or so, is also quite hated in Europe.

    Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán delivered a scathing indictment of the world’s liberals and arguing that Hungary had the right to implement whatever immigration policies it chooses to, and that the nation also had the right to fight back against the underhanded efforts of Soros and his minions.

    Orbán’s comments echoed sentiments he articulated during an interview a few weeks ago where he explained that George Soros and his lackeys were acting as if they were above Hungary’s laws in their attempts to abuse the system and grab more power for themselves.

    The IslamoSoros is a “power behind the throne” supporting Wokeslam’s more visible SJW leaders including Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib.
    ___

    I genuinely feel sorry for Ukraine. However, their leaders are fools serving SJW Islamic Globalism. There is no way forward as long as Zelensky is ensnared by the Siren’s Song of SJW Multiculturalism.

    After proofreading, I realized that I got you mixed up with [Beckow]. I decided to not make any corrections, for lately you and him sound exactly alike. If you could convince him to support Trump, you’d be identical twins! 🙂

    Doubtful. No one has been able to present evidence that George IslamoSoros is anything other than a Muslim. Yet everyone else keeps trying to say things like, “SJW & Islam are merely working together” rather than a unified side.

    *shrug*

    There is only so much TRUTH I can reveal.

    Ocean’s Razor will eventually bring people around. Theoretically, separate sides can only have identical policies and use identical flags for so long before people see through the surface and find there is only one unified group.

    PEACE 😇
    ________

    (1) https://thewashingtonstandard.com/prime-minister-hungary-george-soros-ruined-millions-lives/

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Mr. Hack
  360. German_reader says:
    @songbird

    Anyway, geography goes into China’s system, and it is of a similar scale to America. Greater, when you count population. I wouldn’t count it out yet.

    iirc some American hegemonists claim that China could just be blockaded in case of conflict, with the straits of Malacca as a choke point, and eventually be starved into submission (sort of like imperial Germany in WW1). Obviously a Russo-Chinese alliance (maybe with Iran as another junior partner) would complicate such a scenario though.
    But I agree with your larger point, if there’s a sort of Chinese fascism (Communist only in name, but not held back by Soviet-style economics) imo it’s far from clear it would be inherently inferior to Western “liberalism”.

    • Replies: @songbird
    , @Wokechoke
  361. A123 says: • Website
    @A123

    “Ocean’s Razor” should obviously be “Occam’s Razor”.

    Stupid, friggen autocorrect…. If I meant *duck* I would have said *duck*.

    PEACE 😇
    ________

    😁Open Thread Humor😂 below [MORE] possibly mildly NSFW.

    [MORE]

     
     
     

    thepubliceditor.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Ducking_Autocorrect.jpeg

  362. songbird says:
    @German_reader

    iirc some American hegemonists claim that China could just be blockaded in case of conflict, with the straits of Malacca as a choke point

    One of the reasons that the US has such good geography is that it is easier for it to control the world’s seven or so chokepoints. I mean, for example, who else but the US is going to control Panama?

    But there is also another side of that. The open geography of the US, means that it had an open system, that was open to invasion. Invasion which substantially weakens it.

    China had geography that was more closed, which helped them develop their separate system. Right, now it moderates their potential for aggressive behavior. They had large scale brownouts and blackouts last year, so their energy position is very precarious right now, but that is something that potentially can be changed in time, with the help of nuclear power.

    [MORE]

    I doubt that they can be bottled up forever. Seems to me they have at least two outs. Singapore, with its Chinese majority (Yellowface Anon might disagree when one counts migrants) sits on one side of the straits. If there is to be enough military conflict that the straights are blocked, then they could as easily be seized.

    Also, there is Taiwan. Taiwanese that I know in America have an ethno-psychic connection to China. They do not see it as an enemy. And that isn’t counting the possibility of any of their neighbors being brought into their orbit.

    They just signed a security pact with the Solomon Islands. No base, for now. But it is easy to see how they can establish relationships with different countries in strategic places.

  363. AP says:
    @Wokechoke

    I miswrote “false flag” when I meant to write “feint.” A Russian cope is that the Kiev battle where they were defeated was a feint all along. In reality it was a sincere attempt to seize Kiev that failed and resulted in the loss of many elite Russian troops.

    Ukraine wasn’t going to defend the southern plains that are flat and treeless and provide no cover for its troops. In that region they can only sit in and defend some cities while bleeding the Russians, such as in Mariupol which is already being captured for the 20th time today.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  364. AP says:
    @Beckow

    I actually have not found them easily. I provided a link to the 4300 figure; you claim 15k so please provide a link for that number.

  365. Ron Unz says:
    @Mr. Hack

    I had a dialogue with Ron Unz recently about the Maidan massacre. He admitted that the evidence pointing towards the Russian side of the street from were the shootings took place was solid and even “scientific”

    That’s a very misleading characterization of my position. I said I very strongly suspected that the alleged “scientific” evidence was simply fabricated by Intelligence agencies…

    • Agree: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @Mr. Hack
  366. Wokechoke says:
    @Ron Unz

    This is a good website for tracking Russian and Ukrainian units. Excellent looking maps and symbols.

    https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasion-day-36-summary/

  367. Wokechoke says:
    @AP

    https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasion-day-36-summary/

    The locations of Brigades are now being published on this site. Which is quite an interesting shift in policy.

  368. @songbird

    Well, I just assumed that utu was reading off the pitch sheet for some Hollywood “Support Ukraine Fundraiser Musical Extravaganza”. Seemed plausible enough.

    • LOL: songbird
  369. Wokechoke says:
    @German_reader

    Taiwan would make them difficult to blockade by sea if they ever grabbed it back.

  370. Mr. Hack says:
    @Ron Unz

    I don’t think that my characterization of your stance was very misleading. To be sure, I’ll just copy/paste it over to here, where anybody reading this will be able to make up his own mind. BTW, this is your opinion after you finally read the NYT article and watched the accompanying clip:

    The sort of detailed technical analysis provided seems very thorough and is exactly the sort of approach one should take to determine what really happened. If this were a scientific question rather than a political one, I’d probably find it pretty persuasive.

    But it is an ultra high-profile political matter involving the most sensitive international issues, so the first question is whether the groups or individuals providing the technical analysis can be trusted. What if they’re just lying or fabricating their data? Nuland did brag about spending \$5 billion to shift Ukraine’s politics, and \$5 billion will pay for a lot of fabrication and lies. So I just can’t believe a single word in that NYT article or the video. Maybe that’s unfair, but Intelligence agencies controlled by Neocons have huge expertise in lying and fabrication, which is their main line of work.

    Your “what if” doesn’t really substantiate your following premise, does it? It’s just an opinion, perhaps correct, perhaps not. There’s no proof that the data was fabricated. And just on the face of it, based on the data provided, you admit that it looks “pretty persuasive”.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  371. Wild mood swings be like 😉

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    , @Philip Owen
  372. Beckow says:
    @Mr. Hack

    There is a video showing the Odessa massacre and the French made a movie about it. The basic facts are not in dispute. The precise sequence and who took a few shots from where were not established suggesting that Kiev didn’t want the truth to come out – they are in charge in Odessa, so by not doing it they de facto confessed.

    You are starting to willfully misrepresent what others say and that is a sign of a collapsing intellectual position. You in effect defend the Odessa massacre by trying to minimize it. That is not a sustainable long-term position. These are the kinds of mistakes that has brought us to this bloody point. What next? are you going to claim that the POWs torture video was done by Russians dressed in Ukie uniforms? This is how a country drops down a steep chute into a complete oblivion. These are own goals.

    • Agree: Aedib
    • Replies: @AP
    , @Mr. Hack
  373. @Wokechoke

    In the end the supply column was a FUSAG sort of deception …

    FUSAG? Care to let me in on the jargon?

    … it appears to have not existed.

    Interesting. Reference?

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  374. LatW says:

    Here is an interesting insight from the Ukrainian military expert Oleh Zhdanov (reserve colonel in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, 20 of years military experience). Sorry for the liberal translation (with imperfect English).

    Re: Changes on the front lines in recent days.

    “Things have slowed down, in the first weeks the combat tempo was insane, but now it has drastically slowed down. It’s obvious that the Russian Federation is exhausted. We significantly beat out their offensive potential. They’ve concluded that to carry out offensive operations in four directions simultaneously is too hard for them. They’ve decided to return to the original plan, focus on Donbas with additional strikes in other directions, such as Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol. We have been waiting for the second wave of their offensive for two weeks now while they’ve been assembling reserves. They’re currently unable to gather the numbers that could drastically change the situation in Ukraine, thus the operational pause is prolonged. They will try to replenish the troops north of Kyiv but will attempt to do this fast, with little training. The Ukrainian side is using this pause to bring more fire on the Russians. There are Ukrainian counter attacks in some directions, some territory being freed. We have organized a death grinder for the Russian troops. The troops reserved for the Donbas front, they are forced to send those in other directions to replenish the losses and the lost combat capacity. [Gives example of a captured soldier who was told to keep marching despite the losses of 50% in his unit, like in 1941. “Behind us only Moscow!”]. On top of that they need to strengthen the group in the East. We have created systemic difficulties for them. The situation is more advantageous to us than the Russian troops.

    [MORE]

    – As to the North, a line has been liberated, and they left Chernobyl. Does it mean this area has been liberated and the Russians will base themselves in Belarus?

    – Only along the Dniepr but not in the broader area. They are holding an important highway there. Hostomel and Bucha are under their control, only Irpin’ is ours. And the Hostomel airport. They’re actively digging trenches in Bucha. They are trying to get into the ground firing constantly so we can’t approach their positions. They did leave Chernobyl. They couldn’t do much due to radiation. We will have to inspect the sarcophagus now.

    – What’s going to happen in the South? Especially Mariupol.

    – Echelons with equipment are arriving in Debaltsevo. Russia is trying to grow the group there. Hard to say when they will be ready and how long the operational pause will last, a week, 10 days, no idea. The tempo to increase forces is not as high as RF desired. It’s in our advantage. We can regroup and prepare for the solution of this event. As to Mariupol, it is fulfilling its goal, absorbing a lot of Russian attention and the better Russian combat forces. The sacrifices are not in vain, we can control other areas because of that.

    – Can Kyiv be finally de-blockaded soon? Rockets are being pulled into Belarus.

    – They have been doing that for a while. They are bringing them in with planes now, not railway, picking up everything they have all over Russia. We know that one more Iskander rocket brigade is arriving so they will be increasing the number of rocket strikes on our territory. The second strike will be similar to the one that took place in the morning of Feb 24. A massive missile strike and there will be an offense towards all directions. That’s why they’re digging trenches. But the main strike will be focused on the East. If they break our defense in the East, that grouping will bifurcate – one part of it will create a ring in the south around our forces and the other part will be breaking through Dniepr towards Kyiv. Most likely this is their intended scenario.

    – The Defense minister of UK said that the British will provide Ukraine with long range missiles.

    – Anti ship missiles. And zenith complexes. This is what Boris Johnson meant when he said we should be given more lethal weapons. The time has probably come when more serious weapons need to be provided. Notice how quickly Australia reacted to the request of Zelensky for armored vehicles. Quick decision by the Australian PM. The most important factor now is that all of this can be delivered on time. We have good chances to hold our ground through this as it is, but if these weapons come on time, our chances of holding our ground through this increase. It won’t be easy, but we have a chance to stand through and bring them a military defeat in Donbas. And by the way, that will be the decisive struggle of this war. This battle should complete the critical fracture in this war. After this repeated attempted strike in Donbas we will know where we are and what are our chances of winning this war. Only then the foundation for negotiations will surface.

    – What about the optimistic foreign intelligence reports that Ukraine is beginning to win. Such optimism is not typical for Western intelligence sources especially given the severity of the situation.

    – These are based on what we ourselves see and what their intelligence is seeing. We’ve been waiting for two weeks. Where is the [Russian] operational reserve? The Russians have announced a secret mobilization in 8 regions of Russia. Did it fall through? They promised 16000 mercenaries from Central Asia. 400 people arrived. So nothing. They took 800 people from the base in Armenia. Even some from Azerbaijan. From Tajikistan, as the result of which the Taliban have announced they’ll try to enter the Fergana Valley in April. China and India are discussing this issue as Russia no longer seems to be a guarantor of security there. In the Pacific, their navy started a training near the Kurils that was caused by the Japanese announcement (Russia left the peace treaty negotiations with Japan). 3000 troops are involved there. They started mobilization according to the so called BARS. As to equipment, they are trying to pull up the Soviet equipment, some of that equipment is missing even motors. Some BTRs run on old school diesel. These weapons were not properly maintained.

    The NATO intelligence had an internal scandal recently for overvaluing the Russian military capacity.

    – Seems that these actions by Russia have initiated some movements in the post-Soviet space. Azerbaijan is one story. In Georgia, South Ossetian troops came here and then went back to Ossetia. They want to join RF. Armenia stated that it did not offer its air space to Russia. What consequences can this bring?

    – When an earthquake starts you experience the first few rumblings and everything starts shaking mildly. This is what’s happening around the Russian Federation. They have gathered troops from Abkhazia and those troops are now here in Ukraine. Georgia only woke up about it now. They will join the sanctions despite of the pro-Russian stance of their government. The pyramid is starting to crumble. Even Belarus, the closest and the most strictly controlled Russian ally, does not want to join this war. This process will continue and grow. As to South Ossetia wanting to join RF, it’s an attempt of the local proxies to save their hide [skin]. They hope that by joining Russia, Russia will be forced to protect its territory. But if they don’t join, they are not recognized by anybody, if Russia loses this war, the return of the constitutional order of Georgia on these territories is imminent. Same for us in Ukraine [with our annexed territories] if we were to restore our territorial integrity and sovereignty. Kremlin doesn’t even respond to these requests as they have more immediate concerns. The Generalshtab, top military HQ [..] Putin is demanding a victory. Soon. War should be completed by May 7 so that he can bring something substantial to the public during the May 9 parade. the Russian public is electrified, based on their social networks, the Russian public is very jingoist right now. “Russia getting up from its knees, where is the victory?” But when it’s time to go to the voenkomat [army recruitment center], there is less enthusiasm. They are all sitting on their couches in front of the TV, nobody is looking in the fridge or out the window. They are all waiting for a victory on TV and supporting their president on TV. This is in our advantage. But because there is only one order coming out of the bunker, “Forwards, take it, no matter the price!”. This creates a psychological pressure on the Generalshtab, because they are absorbing the concentrated information from the frontlines, from the bottom, who are saying “We can’t, we need more reinforcements, give us more troops!”. But the Generalshtab is given an order from the Kremlin, “Keep attacking!” At some point this will explode at the level of Generalshtab. When they will fully acknowledge that this Putin’s order is impossible to carry out. Physically impossible. Then the explosion will happen and then we can expect some movements in the highest echelons of the political leadership of Russia.

    – Biden said recently: “Putin is self isolated, or fired his advisors, or put them on house arrest”. Is this what you mean is what’s happening in the Generalshtab?

    – When was the last time that Shoigu and Gerasimov where inside of the bunker? 3 weeks ago? When was Lavrov there, a month ago? Only Peskov is near Putin right now. I agree with this evaluation. Putin has driven everyone out, he’s nervous as time is passing, but the results are lacking. An all out mobilization should be announced, but how can he explain that to his public if he kept repeating that the “operation is proceeding according to the plan and we are at the closing stages of it”. How will the Russian public accept that? There is only one step from love to hatred. All dictators before the finish lines of their political careers had high public approval ratings.

    If you look at historical analogies, it is similar to Hitler in the spring of 1945. He demanded that the reserves be thrown into the front. To defeat the Allies and then Germany would win…”

    Выстоим.

    • Thanks: AP, sudden death, Mr. Hack
  375. Wokechoke says:
    @V. K. Ovelund

    First United States Army Group.

    The Germans were so convinced the allies would land as the Pas de Calais that the British cooked up a fictional army Group for Patton to command. It came with fake signals, camps, trucks, tanks. The reason that the Germans did not strike at the allies in Normandy with their reserve tanks is that FUSAG held their attention. Indeed, FUSAG also reduced the number of good German troops in Normandy for DDay itself. Had a single armoured division been in Caen and driven forward that day the invasion would have failed and the British murdered on the beach.

    Crossing from Crimea to the mainland is a sort of amphibious operation. This appears to have been the main attack by Russia after all.

    • Thanks: V. K. Ovelund
  376. AP says:
    @Beckow

    There is a video showing the Odessa massacre

    “Odessa massacre” is a good litmus test for a pro-Russian shill.

    Reality, with plenty of video evidence:

    https://khpg.org/en/1407453894

  377. Mr. Hack says:
    @Beckow

    You are starting to willfully misrepresent what others say and that is a sign of a collapsing intellectual position.

    No truer words were ever written, especially by you. Ron and I were discussing the massacre in Kyiv on the Maidan, not anything at all in Odessa, you Dodo Bird! 🙂

    Easy does it Beckow…er, Dodo.

  378. @utu

    I think that in some comments I have expressed som hope that because of this war that Russia started some problems will get new solutions. I think I wrote that war on climate change will be put on the back burner. That perhaps Germany will resurrect its nuclear energy to which, iirc, you in your usual twatty way objected. That perhaps there will be stronger resolve against non-European immigration. That pathological feminism will be subdued during war.

    After long hours of exhaustive analysis, I at last decyphered what your secret plans for the world are. You intend to bring Putin down from the command of Russia and establish him as the commander of Europe!

  379. LatW says:
    @German_reader

    One of the worst results of this war is that the outrage at Russia’s actions in Ukraine [..] gives new legitimacy to the globohomo system and empowers people like you who will cheer on on yet more repression of any dissenting opinions.

    Maybe in the West, and, yes, for the West, it is a fight against these “autocrats”, but not across Russia’s immediate neighborhood. There is a multi-cultural element here, because help to Ukraine has come from many circles and many nationalities. But on the ground, it is not a given that the globo-homo will necessarily advance. On the contrary. The status of the Ukrainian has visibly risen. The Ukrainian is now the European (and maybe even global to some extent) kshatriya. They are martyrs and heroes in one. Martial values will become more admirable and immediate survival (and eventually reconstruction) needs will be prioritized, not “special group” rights. It doesn’t mean people will be discriminated against, just that there will be less time and space for “woke” musings.

    If the Ukrainian is integrated into the larger European community, this will be a counterweight against the globo-homo, because, on average, the Ukrainian is more conservative than your average liberal Westerner. A lot, of course, depends on the negotiations with the EU, it is an open question what compromises can be reached there re: minority rights, etc. Of course, some in the elite may try to larp as “enlightened liberals”, but your typical Cossack is very freedom loving and doesn’t like being dictated to.

    Globo-homo typically arises from laxity of spirit, from comfort, from excess of resources, it has no place in a Spartan environment or in a “survival mode” environment. In the Spartan environment, which may appear around Russia, the masculine virtues will prevail. You have yourself admitted this before.

    [MORE]

    As to the Azov, they will not disappear. As I mentioned, they are a movement, not a static group of people. They self-regenerate (as long as more children are born).

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  380. Mr. Hack says:
    @A123

    Yet, you’ve still not drawn any line between Soros funding the Ukrainian side in this war. just a bunch of Conspiracy theory theories. The US is providing military and military aide to Ukraine, and not Soros, unless you feel that Soros (the Muslim) controls the US?…

    I genuinely feel sorry for Ukraine. However, their leaders are fools serving SJW Islamic Globalism.

    You’re the only one that sounds foolish to me, for believing in this sort of nonsense. Ukraine is serving its own interests, and is supported by the vast majority of Ukrainians. They want to beat off an attack on their country by the Russians, nothing more and nothing less. Are you so obtuse to be unable to understand this? If America were being attacked by a foreign power and had many of its civilians bombed and killed, wouldn’t you also want to beat back any such heartless intrusion? There’s no need to dig and try to uncover some sinister Globohomo/SJW/Soros conspiracy theories to buttress Putler’s vicious and senseless war.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    , @A123
  381. LatW says:
    @sudden death

    true false flag

    Btw, Oleh Zhdanov in the above interview speculates that some munitions could’ve self exploded there because they are old and not well maintained. Not sure if it’s valid. Putin kept saying the UA air force has been disabled, so how come they hit Belgorod now? If they did do it, it’s understandable, because it’s a total war now. In a total war, neither side respects the other’s border. Scary…

    Btw, did you hear that the Russians who were in Chernobyl, tried to dig in there and by doing so uncovered the really contaminated soil… got all sick and were taken to Belarus with radiation sickness, with permanent damage to their health… so cruel to the troops.

    Did you hear the insane stories about the “biolab birds” that are sent into Russia from the Ukrainian territory? The Bandera Birds, lol.

    And did you see Solovyov’s whining about his lost properties in Italy….? From a couple of weeks ago… where he goes “Why do I need all this….”.

    Insane…

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @JL
    , @sudden death
  382. Wokechoke says:
    @LatW

    They are an offshoot of Right Sector. I don’t think that’s going to fly well in the EU.

    • Replies: @LatW
  383. Mr. Hack says:
    @Mr. Hack

    The US is providing military and military aide to Ukraine, and not Soros,

    should be:

    The US is providing financial and military aide to Ukraine, and not Soros,

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  384. Wokechoke says:
    @Mr. Hack

    The banner image of the Open Society Foundation.

    https://www.opensocietyfoundations.org/

    The horse’s mouth…

    https://www.ceu.edu/article/2014-12-03/soros-explains-why-he-exerting-his-utmost-efforts-support-ukraine-during

    He’s an architect of these colour revolutions.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  385. @sudden death

    This seems to be an exceedingly common fallacy for invading armies. I suppose there is something to the idea that confidence is necessary to make something happen but hubris is blinding. I wonder how much of that swagger was felt inside the Kremlin as opposed to things put out for hoi polloi consumption.

    I think my statement from several open threads ago, still stands: multiply any invasion’s expected difficulty x3 to get a real estimate of how it will go.

    • Replies: @Mikel
  386. Mr. Hack says:

    Two different versions of “never give up”. Can you guess which version the “Birdman of Slovakia” likes better?

  387. LatW says:
    @Wokechoke

    I don’t think that’s going to fly well in the EU.

    Nobody’s going to be asking the EU…

    We will work around it. Let me just put it that way. If UA needs EU at all with all the endless acquis that puts on major obligations. Maybe they just need a separate treaty, for trade & investment, similar to what Norway has. The friendship, openness & free travel plus work is already there. They do however need to work on the rule of law. But nationalists are very obedient to rules so the Right Sector spirit might actually help here…

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  388. Wokechoke says:
    @LatW

    Good luck with those visas

  389. nickels says:

    WTF!!!!!!!!

    Putin Cucked even harder than Trump.

    He didn’t just hand over Russia to the maw.

    The entire free world is now handed over to the maw of worldwide faggotry.

    **edit
    Okay. I though he looked weird like someone was holding a gun to his head.

  390. LatW says:

    Latest rumors on Putin. A group of physicians are in his surroundings, including an oncologist. He is using an Altai deer antler extract in his bath. This may or may not be effective, I have seen some supplements from deer antlers (including a pre-work out supplement that claims to give you special energy). The extraction of this substance is very controversial as it is very painful for the deer.
    Shoigu suggested this to him (thus Shoigu’s nickname “reindeer herder”).

    The fact that he has several physicians is not special, we all see several specialists on and off even for preventive care, however, his list appears very long even for someone his age.

    If he does have cancer, it explains why there is such a sense of urgency to destroy Ukraine…

  391. Mikel says:

    It looks like somebody hacked AK’s twitter account. And seems to be familiar with his Unz articles…

    Since my entire "career" as a pundit has turned out to be negative value added, it is only appropriate that I leave all blogging and social media, and seek work more aligned with my skill set (e.g. flipping burgers).This account and all my websites will be deleted tomorrow.— Anatoly Karlin (🅉,🅉) (@akarlin0) April 1, 2022

    • LOL: Aedib
    • Replies: @nickels
    , @songbird
    , @songbird
  392. nickels says:
    @Mikel

    Putin gave up:

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Mikel
    , @Yevardian
  393. Mr. Hack says:
    @Wokechoke

    We were discussing the funding and military support of the current war. So how much has Soros given to Ukraine lately?

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  394. A123 says: • Website
    @Mr. Hack

    Willing ignorance is a critical & obvious failure on your part.

    Everyone knows that Soros, the illegitimate Biden regime, and Zelensky are connected. None of this is hidden. However, in the interest of comity (1)

    if Russia is evil, why is Biden continuing to buy billions of dollars of oil from Russia every day? Does this make sense?

    Unless it’s pure “commie theatre.”

    Connect the dots. Biden is a feeble, feckless old puppet with dementia. George Soros pulls Biden’s strings. Soros is on the side of Ukraine. Soros recently said the whole world must support Ukraine. It’s been reported Soros funded Volodymyr Zelenskyy and then installed him as president of Ukraine — one of the most corrupt nations on the earth.

    Keep in mind, evil billionaire Soros is obsessed with hatred for America. He desperately wants to destroy our country. Soros has funded the invasion of our borders. He helps pay for illegal aliens (many of them criminals, MS-13 gang members and murderers) to enter America.

    Its quite impressive & manipulative that IslamoSoros backed NGO’s simultaneously backed rivals Poroshenko and Zelensky. Almost like democracy in Ukraine was a sham….. Much like the installation of Biden after he lost.
    _____

    If that is not enough for you, do your own research. If you want to produce evidence *disproving* such connections I would be open minded. However, The Burden of Proof is Yours.

    Let me once again pre-offer the proverbial cheese. Given your insubstantial track record we all expect you to whine, offering nothing of interest.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://townhall.com/columnists/wayneallynroot/2022/03/06/heres-your-red-pill-moment-about-the-russiaukraine-war-n2604165

  395. songbird says:
    @Mikel

    I imagine some number of state intel agencies would be interested in messing with AK, even if the suspect posts have a childlike quality that suggest a monomaniac.

    Since his profile got higher recently, I’m kind of surprised that he wasn’t (at least I assume) using two-factor.

    • Agree: Mikel
  396. A123 says: • Website
    @nickels

    Exceedingly low quality video with dramatic visual anomalies.

    A “deep fake” and not a particularly good one.

    PEACE 😇

  397. Mikel says:
    @nickels

    You do realize that’s fake news, don’t you??

    • Replies: @A123
  398. S says:
    @A123

    It s worth repeating — The purpose of the Ukraine fight is WEF Elites maximizing the number of refugees. The fight will be extended for the maximum length of time. Ukraine defense will be helped and anything that can be used for offense will be quashed.

    Along with the promotion of destabalizing wars, by cynically using the mass movements of people (manifesting in the form of wage slaves, ie so called ‘cheap labor’, and refugees) as a battering ram, a perverse form of people power, they hope to break up the already existing somewhat organic peoples, races, and ethnicities of the world and replace them with a wholly artificial ‘new’ man and woman who (in theory) will be citizens of a long sought after world state/empire.

    Along these same lines recently, and before Russia’s invasion, I’d read of a Polish nationalist who had apparently realized this. He was of the belief that the Ukranians imported into Poland by exploitive business interests there during the past decades really needed to return to Ukraine, otherwise they would simply be a tool, a stepping stone, to be used against both the Polish and Ukrainian peoples as part of a never ending spiral of ever more ‘diverse’ peoplehood destroying ‘migration’.

    Now, of course…

    • Thanks: A123
    • Replies: @A123
  399. A123 says: • Website
    @Mikel

    You do realize that’s fake news, don’t you??

    You might wish to be more precise in your charge…. Everything in U.S. news is fake and getting faker. Lets meet America’s newest reporter (1) (2)

    White House press secretary Jen Psaki plans to leave the White House in May to host a show on NBC’s Peacock streaming platform, according to a report.

    Axios reported the news citing “a source close to the matter.”

    Psaki, who is currently on leave after a second case of coronavirus, will leave the White House “around May” according to the report.

    Psaki worked as a political pundit on CNN before joining the White House, and will also participate in that capacity at NBC and MSNBC.

    White House press secretary Jen Psaki struggled to answer questions about her ethical standards on Friday after a report surfaced that she was negotiating a massive contract with NBC News

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/04/01/report-jen-psaki-leaving-white-house-peacock-streaming-show/

    (2) https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/04/01/jen-psaki-hit-with-questions-ethics-report-massive-nbc-deal-goes-public/

     

    • Agree: Mikhail, Aedib
  400. iffen says:
    @German_reader

    The only decent people might be the Nazis from Azov, my respect goes out to them

    Seriously?

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
  401. @songbird

    Lol, this was always a primary motivation of theirs to intervene on East Asian continent, to build a buffer zone, their version of Belgium, against a resurgent Yuan Mongol-like Empire. Which previous took the form of Russia, then USSR, and then USSR-PRC alliance. Now its in the form a potential PRC-RusFed alliance.

    It mirrors German history in many ways, for instance former Handelsblatt editor wrote this piece, I’m sure there are near exact sentiments in Japan discussed to turn away from pacificism,

    It took the worst European war of aggression since Hitler’s to turn Germany’s political culture from messianic naivete to common sense. But sometimes it takes centuries to get off a Sonderweg. Putin may yet wreck the continent. But in this one way, he’s changed German history for the better.

    https://www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/putin-s-invasion-of-ukraine-has-fixed-a-flaw-in-german-history

    Wouldn’t count the Jucheists out yet, either. And they were created with the help of the Chinese.

    Soviets primarily. The CPC and CPK were “brother parties”, but both were under auspices of CPSU.

    • Replies: @songbird
  402. nickels says:

    You do realize that’s fake news, don’t you??

    Yeah, but after 4 years of Trump cucking actually this hard (really) I did fall for it for a good bit.

  403. Mikel says:
    @Barbarossa

    multiply any invasion’s expected difficulty x3 to get a real estimate of how it will go

    Yes. Incredibly, the Russians don’t seem to have learned anything from the experience of the US military campaigns in the last 20+ years.

    I remember how before the war started the “experts” were saying that all those Javelins would be useless because the Russians would obliterate the Ukrainian forces with stand off weapons before actually invading. Instead, the Russian generals decided pretty much to charge directly against the Javelins on multiple fronts…

    Although to be fair, I don’t think the US or NATO would have fared much better in a war like the one the Russians chose: invading a huge and well armed country with a limited contingent stretched thin on various fronts and with the apparent objective of storming all big cities, one after the other. Has such a strategy ever worked well for anyone in the past?

    And to make matters worse, the political objectives of the operation, as expressed by Putin, looked unattainable even in the best-case scenario. It is quite ironic that it was the Saker, years ago when his rants still made some sense occasionally, who explained one obvious truth: it’s pointless to start a war if it’s not in the pursuit of very clear and achievable political goals.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @sudden death
  404. @iffen

    I guess you can applaud them for their honesty and directness? In the modern Oprahesqe jargon, they are great at “living life as their truest selves”!

  405. Dmitry says:
    @Ron Unz

    some young Russian of pro-Western or even Neoconish

    Lol I was going to thank you for your support for this excellent forum. After our polite discussions, I’m not sure why you want to stereotype me as if you are in negative disputation with me, “young”, “pro-Western”, “Russian”, “Neoconish” (I would prefer if you said “neoliberal” in this last one).

    Of course, I have no professional knowledge relating to military, let alone missile defense (and I don’t think any missile defense commanders post in your forum). I’m just a causal reader, who sometimes reads “defense journalists” as hobby. Still we amateurs can share what we read and some one might find it interesting. I hope I do not mislabel opinion with factual claims. I’m usually trying to be careful to label my posts as opinions and add links where I read something.

    I’d be pretty skeptical of your claim that America could currently destroy a Kremlin building with a salvo of our existing cruise missiles. Can you find any knowledgeable person who believes what you’re saying?

    Air defense against planes is not considered hermetic and missile defense less hermetic. Intercepting missiles would be usually more difficult than intercepting planes, other things equal. There are often texts showing skepticism whether missile defense is a plausible investment.

    Many people seem to be skeptical about interception rates for current systems. Here is a skeptical article about missile defense ( https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/global-missile-defense-race-strong-test-records-and-poor-operational-performance ) This skepticism is not completely strange or controversial position, as these claims are repeated across multiple resources.

    As an amateur, I’m not in position to decide whether these kind of claims are correct. Maybe there are much more knowledgeable people in the forum, who will correct me. But in terms of maximal claims, it’s possible for us to notice that you don’t often read anyone that said these systems are hermetic.

    our anti-missile systems would have a reasonable chance of protecting NATO HQ against Russian subsonic cruise missiles but almost no chance against hypersonic ones.

    Even if interception rate was high with one missile, it would be less high if you send many missiles, assuming the missile defense system is not hermetic.

    As for whether Brussels has some kind of defense against subsonic (let alone the hypersonic) cruise missiles. Reading “The Military Balance 2021”, it does not list that Belgium has any landbase SAMs currently for intercepting cruise missiles.

    According to “Benelux Security Cooperation: A New European Defense Community?” (2019). It sounds like Brussels does not have much air defense and this is “problematic within the alliance (NATO)”.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    , @utu
  406. A123 says: • Website
    @S

    Along these same lines recently, and before Russia’s invasion, I’d read of a Polish nationalist who had apparently realized this. He was of the belief that the Ukranians imported into Poland by exploitive business interests there during the past decades really needed to return to Ukraine, otherwise they would simply be a tool, a stepping stone, to be used against both the Polish and Ukrainian peoples as part of a never ending spiral of ever more ‘diverse’ peoplehood destroying ‘migration’.

    You are correct.

    I hope that you do not mind that I added bold to the key parts of your statement.

    The desire of businesses and exploitive managers is cheap labour. And, the purpose of the EU is to serve that exploitation:

    — Schengen “Freedom of Travel” allowed higher wage European nations to under cut their workers via internal migration.
    — The pressure that placed on donor, periphery nations spurred both legal and illegal migration from outiside.

    The purpose of the EU is the destruction of Christian Europe.

    When will Europeans catch on?

    PEACE 😇

    • Thanks: S
  407. songbird says:
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Soviets primarily.

    I shouldn’t have said “created”, as that word relates too much to the starting point of a chronology.

    What I meant to refer to was the Chinese army crossing the Yalu. How NK wouldn’t exist without that.

    The Soviet contribution, while not to be scorned, is primarily the same process as happened in Eastern Europe. I.e., the Soviet army was already traveling through those areas, as a consequence of the war, and thus it was easy for them to set up puppet regimes. Not to mention that the US contributed hugely to their logistics.

    But the Chinese went toe-toe with America, and won concessions, which was unique. A meat-grinder for them. Steamroller tactics with disproportionate casualties might not be replicable today. (Probably one reason the Soviets did not try it themselves, as they had lost too many men already) But I’m not predicting direct conflict, or close parallels. What really counts is assertiveness, and power potentialities.

  408. Wokechoke says:
    @utu

    Stop doing the straw manning with that nanochips crap. It’s freshfaggotry.

    Ukraine emerges in 1990 as the personal Piggy bank of assholes like Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, John McCain David Cameron and Joe Biden and you are okay with the implications of that?

    • Replies: @utu
  409. Dmitry says:
    @German_reader

    It feels like it is becoming a more common rhetorical fashion in Europe, trying to exploit Germany’s historical conscience lol. “Germany have you learned nothing from your past”.

    But in reality, Germany has been a good non-military ally for Ukraine in the recent years. (Since February 24 2022, Germany has also become one of the main military donors of equipment for Ukraine).

    In 2018-2019 Germany has been the largest supporter to Ukraine, in financial terms if you would include only civilian aid.
    (https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/aussenpolitik/laenderinformationen/ukraine-node/ukraine-support/2510752)

    on Energiewende, not considering a return to nuclear power, so there’ll be a massive energy crisis soon. German industry will become uncompetitive

    It sounds funny, but wind energy is already almost becoming the cheapest in the world this decade. ( https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-levelized-cost-of-storage-and-levelized-cost-of-hydrogen )

    Problem is that, it is not steady to the same extent can be gas or nuclear energy. Therefore, the addition of storage will be required in the future (probably large batteries), which will add a bit of something to the cost.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    , @Barbarossa
  410. Dmitry says:
    @LatW

    Solovyov is not necessarily so wealthy. Maybe he has tens of millions of dollars. But perhaps in the sense villas in Italy (which I can’t remember exactly what was their price estimation, but I might recall they could be tens of millions of dollars) could be a significant part of his retirement plans now lost.

    His job is likely stressful as well, as he always has improvise to generate emotions from his audience to support what he thinks can help authorities and this is changing.

    For example, before the election in 2019 in Ukraine, he was supporting Zelensky against Poroshenko, as all federal media. Zelensky was more “reasonable”, Zelensky likes Russia and the nationalists hate him, etc. Then after election Solovyov had immediately to reverse against Zelensky who was Poroshenko 2, radical nationalist.

    Speed of these reversals sometimes really fast. Who knows what it is like to do this kind of job, but if this was your profession, I believe you would need to sometimes forget what you were saying a week before.

    • Disagree: Mikhail
    • Replies: @LatW
    , @Mikhail
  411. German_reader says:
    @Dmitry

    Therefore, the addition of storage will be required in the future (probably large batteries)

    That problem hasn’t been solved, and may well not be solvable…so it’s lights out soon!
    Anyway, as I said, in some sense I’m looking forward to it, it will be really funny when Germany becomes a failed economy and drags the rest of this worthless continent down with it.

    • Replies: @utu
    , @for-the-record
    , @A123
  412. Wokechoke says:
    @Mikel

    estimated Ukrainian unit strength are now appearing on maps.

    From what is public all available to view yourself, the Ukrainians had to reactively deploy their armoured and mechanised forces in the north to stop and harass Russian deployments up there. I’ve counted 8 armoured and mechanised Brigades that were tied up fighting Russians there. Also the airborne units in the Ukraine order of battle are split between with a brigade in Izium and a brigade in Kiev. Cream of the regular army tied up chasing a wild chevauchee.

    In the south there’s an armoured brigade in Odessa and the rest are strung out between the Dneiper around Zaporhizde and Lysychansk at the Donets in a defensive line. There’s a concentration of them nearer Horlivka.

    I don’t think the Russians will hand back Kherson, Melitopol and Maruipol.

    • Replies: @Mikel
  413. @Dmitry

    Maybe Ron paid too much attention to Karlin’s “unboxing aficionado and footwear fetishist” tropes.
    Personally, I think that you are a reasonable and insightful voice, worth reading.

    For what it’s worth, I think that an amateur observer can often have insights at least as accurate as the professional. The professional can easily get locked in rigid thinking predicated by their loyalties and paycheck. They often see patterns that fit a preconceived notion, but are ultimately wildly incorrect.

    One of my earliest and vivid memories of this playing out was my father (influenced by Pat Buchanan etc.) calling out the American invasion of Iraq from the onset as a colossal mistake and stating that they were going to unleash chaos in the country. I was late teens at the time, so didn’t have a firmly established idea of foreign affairs myself, but later noted that he (and Pat) had been right on the nose there in contrast to pretty much all the smart professional set of “knowers”.

    • Agree: German_reader, Yahya, Coconuts
    • Thanks: Dmitry
    • Replies: @utu
  414. Dmitry says:
    @Sean

    have those kind of planes

    Well, looking in the media, there were reports last year, that 8 planes would have a targeting pod installed by 2022. It is very new and perhaps not clear if these planes’ systems are actually operational now. (Russian resource only https://web.archive.org/web/20210622161101/https://tass.ru/ural-news/11712627)

    not know it was a not a nuclear cruise missile heading for Moscow

    Sure, unless this information was somehow declared, it could be nuclear warhead and perhaps might be responded with nuclear weapons, as the same missiles can have conventional or nuclear warheads. But I was discussing to Ron’s hypothetical scenario above.

    miniature cruise missiles called switchblade drones

    From what I read, there are only 100 of the smaller Switchblade drone (Switchblade 300).

    USA is still not agreeing to transfer things like anti-ship missiles to Ukraine.

    However, in the British media, you can read that Boris Johnson (Prime Minister of the UK) wants to send wider category of weapons to Ukraine including vehicles. He was saying this week “Would armour, would APCs (armoured personnel carriers) be useful for them (or) armoured Land Rovers? We are certainly looking at that.”” https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-military-ukraine-mariupol-b2047341.html

  415. Mikel says:
    @Wokechoke

    I’m not sure that you are saying this but if the objective from the beginning was only conquering the Donbass (or Novorossiya), would the Russian Armed Forces (described as technologically superior to any other by several authors on this website) had been unable to do that without engaging in diversionary tactics in northern Ukraine that cost them huge losses in equipment and manpower?

    • Agree: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  416. utu says:
    @Wokechoke

    “Stop doing the straw manning with that nanochips crap.” – Tell it to Ron Unz. He links to articles about it. See Newslinks:

    https://www.unz.com/news/

    lewrockwell.com / RoatanBill • Science/Technology3d
    Self-Assembling Circuits in the Pfizer Jab? Watch the Video.

    Have you made an objection to Ron Unz?

    • Replies: @Brás Cubas
  417. @Dmitry

    I noticed that the touted numbers are on subsidized prices, which seem quite substantially so for wind. Another factor I’m not sure is accounted for is upkeep. There are a lot of wind farms around my general area put up around 10 years or so ago, and the problems have been notable.

    Fiberglass blades have lasted shorter than expected and have needed replacement. I know the head of the trucking company who is making big bucks hauling them half a continent away to be buried in a literal windmill blade graveyard. Concrete foundations have needed repair and reinforcement. Then there is the issue of other breakdowns leading to individual towers being taken offline for months or years until there are enough bad ones to justify bringing the mother of all cranes out necessary to take a power head off or change blades.

    All in all it hasn’t impressed me much, and I’m running my home off grid, so I’m not exactly a gas guzzling oil lover.

    Iberdrola (the Spanish energy conglomerate) alone has collected 10 billion in US taxpayer subsidies on wind though, so there is that.

    Speaking of which, they are putting in a massive subsidized 1000 acre solar farm near me, naturally installed by a massive Canadian energy company. Why are they putting up such things in the part of the country that gets fewer days of sun than anywhere else? I guess it fits the current “green” push.
    Again, I’m not opposed to such projects if and where they make sense but there is a lot of shambolic action going on so a politician can get a good photo-op.

    • Thanks: RSDB
    • Replies: @Dmitry
  418. Wokechoke says:
    @Mikel

    You can push only so many troops into an area. I’m not sure that the Russians could have stuffed 30,000 more troops into Crimea for example.

    I did expect the Russians to drive around the north east of Ukraine shooting as much stuff as they could either way. Like a Razia or a Chevauchee.

    Whatever land they chose to bite and hold, or were able to hold is clearly from the Crimean based forces who had to be driven up one road onto the mainland.

  419. utu says:
    @Dmitry

    Ron Unz believes in Syrian and Russian claims that about 70% of missiles launched by America, France and the UK in Syria in 2018 were intercepted, disabled or destroyed.

    He also believes in claims about S-300 and S-400 Russian systems that you can find in internet (Martyanov, Scott Ritter and many others). But the truth is that the Russian systems unlike American systems like the Patriot system apparently have not been tried in real combat situations. Even in Syria where Israel can do pretty much what it wants with impunity S-300 0r S-400 have not made any impact.

    Unanswered Israeli Air Strikes Against Syria Raise S-400 Questions (June 09, 2020)
    https://breakingdefense.com/2020/06/unanswered-israeli-air-strikes-against-syria-raise-s-400-questions/

    Last year, the Israeli air force hit more than 200 targets in Syria connected to the Iranian effort to upgrade Hezbollah’s rockets. Some of those attacks have been reported to involve Israeli F-35s. The attacks continue apace this year with Syrian air defense forces having launched more than 1,000 surface-air missiles to try and foil the repeated Israeli attacks. They’ve had little effect so far.

    Tal Inbar, an Israeli defense analyst, told Breaking Defense that the S-300 and S-400 have never been proved in action against advanced fighters.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @LondonBob
  420. utu says:
    @German_reader

    ” it will be really funny when Germany becomes a failed economy and drags the rest of this worthless continent down with it.” – Have you considered taking anti-depressants? If Hitler was put on fluoxetine or sertraline after the assassination attempt in 1944 Germany would not have to suffer the destruction it did by May 1945. Try psilocybin or ketamine.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  421. German_reader says:
    @utu

    Have you considered taking anti-depressants?

    Why should I, my bad mood is only partially due to my personality defects, much of it is rooted in objective conditions.
    May sound selfish while people are dying in Ukraine, but the economic prospects look pretty bleak. Inflation is also strongly on the rise (only in part due to the war, much of it is a consequence of deeply flawed Eurozone policies). I was in the supermarket yesterday and buying some cheap Gouda cheese…I’m sure it cost just 1,99 Euros a box recently and had stayed at that price for years. Now it’s 2,59 Euros. May be nothing compared to the deprivation a lot of people in 3rd world countries will soon be facing because of the Ukraine war, but it still deeply irritated me.

    • Replies: @LatW
    , @Yahya
  422. LatW says:
    @Dmitry

    His job is likely stressful as well

    Aw, so stressful… poor thing. What, is he sitting in a basement with sirens going off all the time? Is his child dying in front of his eyes?

    I wasn’t talking about how affluent he is, I couldn’t care less about that. But his words mattered. It’s not just any job. He is complicit in what happened.

    What I was referring to was this…. this c*nt is whining about his lost house… when so many Ukrainian children died or were pushed out of their homes.

    Aw, “what do I have to do with this?” No, absolutely nothing.

    Ну чё, доигрались?

    No, I do agree… it didn’t have to turn out this way.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  423. LatW says:
    @German_reader

    The inflation started already before the war due to labor shortages (even in EE!). It was going to happen anyway. Ofc, this makes it all much worse… and was completely unnecessary.. country side doesn’t sound like a bad option anymore. Maybe not just yet, but possibly soon.

    • Replies: @JL
  424. Ron Unz says: • Website

    Instead of continuing disputes over which side is winning the war, here’s a broader question, especially directed towards the several Ukrainian partisans on this thread…

    Michael Hudson, Mike Whitney, and a few other analysts have argued that America may have deliberately provoked Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, hoping to use it to eliminate the former’s growing economic ties with Germany and the rest of Europe in what was becoming an economically unified Eurasia. Maybe that’s correct, and if so, perhaps the invasion has benefited America, or at least some people thought it would.

    But I can’t see any way the invasion and the war benefit Ukraine, even if (by some miracle) the Ukrainians mostly win and force the Russians out. No matter what happens, there’s a great deal of death and destruction in Ukraine, ending in (probably) a strong Russian victory, which leads to far greater Russian control over the entire country. So it’s bad for Ukraine, regardless of what happens.

    Now based upon all the Russian statements over the last few years and in the opinion of numerous American experts, the Russians wanted a neutral Ukraine what wouldn’t become part of NATO, wouldn’t have a strong military, and would agree to give local autonomy to the Donbas enclaves as had been promised in the Minsk agreements, plus maybe stopping government policies against the Russian language. Let’s assume that this is correct and agreeing to these conditions would have averted the Russian invasion.

    So offhand, wasn’t the stubbornness of the Ukrainian government on these points a very bad idea? Wouldn’t it have been much better to just give in on those points and avert an invasion and war?

    I realize that many might argue otherwise based upon national pride or legal independence. However, although Cuba has the perfect right under international law to host a Russian missile base, if the Cubans knew it would lead to an American invasion, they probably wouldn’t do it.

    In hindsight, shouldn’t the Ukrainians have made those concessions to Russia?

    • Disagree: utu
    • Thanks: A123
  425. Mikhail says: • Website
    @AP

    You don’t takeover a country with the size and population of Ukraine with a 200,000 or under force. Having a good sized contingent outside Kiev keeps the adversary guessing, while making it more difficult for that adversary to give support to where the main area of fighting is taking place.

    As for noticeable firings, Zelensky has had his share, as well as the murder of one of the Kiev regime negotiators and tall tale stories later proven false – including killed or fired leading Russian military personnel. Likewise with the suggestion of elite Russian paratroopers getting mowed down en masse.

  426. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Dmitry

    For example, before the election in 2019 in Ukraine, he was supporting Zelensky against Poroshenko, as all federal media. Zelensky was more “reasonable”, Zelensky likes Russia and the nationalists hate him, etc. Then after election Solovyov had immediately to reverse against Zelensky who was Poroshenko 2, radical nationalist.

    Zelensky campaigned on a platform favoring better relations with Russia and ending the Donbass war. After taking office, he flip flopped out of the obvious disproportionate influence of the nationalists (examples include cancelling cultural arrangements with Russian venues like the Hermitage and awarding neo-Nazis).

    With that flip flop came an understandable Russian response.

  427. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Ron Unz

    In time, a greater number of Ukrainians might begin questioning Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as someone who (under the influence of nationalists) further instigated and prolonged a conflict whose end result could’ve occurred on better terms for Ukraine, without the deaths, displacement and destruction resulting from Russia’s military action.

    • Replies: @AP
  428. cortesar says:
    @Ron Unz

    Of course they should have
    While the discussions who is going to be winner may still be open (though I clearly see China as the one ) there is no possible scenario in which Ukraine could win
    I would go step further regarding the alternative history and say that that Ukrainians should never have allowed that witch Nuland to do what she did in 2014
    Had they resisted they would have the whole territory including possibly Crimea and the neutral status allowing them to be the bridge between EU and Russia
    They would have among other things very chip energy which would allow them to attract manufacturing from Europe
    As for Americans provoking Russians into war I think that is not unlikely
    Few days ago when peace was closer than any time since the beginning of the war the evil empire put a stop on any progress
    While the rest sane world was rejoicing for the most part there was nothing but an effort from Americans side to diminish and subvert it
    At this point the evil empire clearly wants to prolong the war and suffering as long as possible From there there is just one step to the possibility of manufacturing that war that they obviously think is in their interest

  429. songbird says:
    @Mikel

    Oh, I see April Fool’s. Well, I am embarrassed. Would have got it, but I mistakenly thought of it as being nearly purely American. Though I can see AK’s style in it now, I originally thought I perceived something else.

    I’m pretty surprised to find that they celebrate the day in Ukraine, since at least the early 1970s, and it is a holiday, by coincidence in Odessa. Come to think of it, compared to some of the other holidays we have, it might not be bad if it was federally recognized in the US.

    • Replies: @Mikel
  430. A123 says: • Website
    @utu

    Ron Unz believes in Syrian and Russian claims that about 70% of missiles launched by America, France and the UK in Syria in 2018 were intercepted, disabled or destroyed.

    Russia and Syria launched ~400 interceptors to hit 70% of 100 inbound weapons. That is a less than 20% success rate. Even if one discards half the attempted counter battery as obsolete (S-200 and earlier), then ~200:70 is still only a 35% success rate.

    Mr. Unz number is technically accurate, but only 70% is a “near failure” level of effectiveness. A competent system would have yielded a 90%+ intercept rate.

    Even in Syria where Israel can do pretty much what it wants with impunity S-300 0r S-400 have not made any impact.

    While upgraded, the S-300 backbone is 1970’s technology. The Syrians have a 1/2 Brigade of S-300. Israeli F-16I have them 100% spoofed to uselessness or are otherwise ignoring their presence. The Syrians managed to land an even older S-200 on the island of Cyprus.

    https://southfront.org/in-photos-syrian-s-200-missile-crashed-in-cyprus/

    S-400 is harder to judge. The Syrian military does not have the system, and there is no evidence that Russia has tried to use them against Israel F-16I. The Pentagon has an adamant stance against co-locating S-400 and F-35 (e.g. in Turkey). That could imply that the base S-400 cannot currently cope with F-35, however with sufficient testing it could be “dialed in”. Of course, it could be MIC firms sticking up for each other to keep out foreign competition. To me, the Pentagon’s zeal implies the former, but take your pick.

    S-400 did intercept some incoming U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles in Syria, however there were far too few interceptors to save the target. Hard numbers are difficult to come by, but the cost of a single S-400 interceptor is reportedly comparable to the cost of a single conventional warhead Tomahawk @ ~\$1MM each. Given the 10+:1 disparity in funding between the U.S. and Russian military, even vaguely comparable cost is a negative for Russia. The U.S. can afford to over saturate any target and win by pure volume of munitions.

    PEACE 😇

  431. A123 says: • Website
    @Ron Unz

    Instead of continuing disputes over which side is winning the war, here’s a broader question,

    I have tried to make this very suggestion several times.

    Michael Hudson, Mike Whitney, and a few other analysts have argued that America may have deliberately provoked Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,

    Correct concept. Incorrect assignment of responsibility.

    The European WEF Elites of Davos want Open Borders to dilute Europe’s Judeo-Christian population… Often stated as “The Great Replacement”. The Brussels-Berlin Axis has recently encountered difficulty with sovereign nations resisting their Rape-ugees. Their European WEF solution? Create a Russia/Ukraine conflict to generate new migrant flows, thus covering the ongoing flood of illegal arrivals.

    Zerohedge asked the question “Who is coming across the border?”. In multiple cases the results are non-Ukrainians (1)

    More than 50 migrants clashed on Saturday night during a riot at a refugee facility in Munich as chairs and paving stones were used as weapons, prompting a huge police response.

    Bild cited a police source who said the overwhelming majority of the “refugees” were from the Sinti and Roma ethnic groups and that, “Only a fraction are really Ukrainian refugees.

    “They have brand-new Ukrainian passports, which are also real. Someone in Ukraine is making a fortune right now,” the newspaper quoted the police representative as saying.

    The official Twitter account of the Roscommon GAA Gaelic football team recently deleted a tweet which showed that around half of the “Ukrainian refugees” they welcomed to a game weren’t exactly Slavic-looking.

    The reality of the situation is clear; Economic migrants from Africa, the Middle East and South Asia are cynically exploiting the Ukrainian refugee wave to abuse the system and get free accommodation and welfare in European countries with poor vetting systems.

    This comes at the expense of genuine Ukrainian refugees who need urgent help.

    The next phase of replacement is already foretold. The groundwork is being laid for Food Shortage — Mass African Migration.. The sucker pitch will be, “Compassionate nations must accept healthy, well fed Rape-ugees who claim to be without food.”

    So offhand, wasn’t the stubbornness of the Ukrainian government on these points a very bad idea? Wouldn’t it have been much better to just give in on those points and avert an invasion and war?

    Exceedingly little actually needed to be conceded. Ukraine’s leadership should never have allowed the European (non-American) WEF Elites of Davos to intentionally provoke Russia from their territory.

    Avoiding inflammatory comments, such as openly stating Ukrainian interest in nuclear arms, would have kicked the can down the road.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/someone-making-fortune-out-giving-non-ukrainian-migrants-fake-ukrainian-passports

    • Replies: @utu
  432. i definitely don’t want to see Steve Sailer and Scott Ritter argue on the internet. can we avoid this please.

    i left this thread weeks ago because the signal to noise ratio is now the lowest of all time on unz.com. there’s not much real military discussion here. even if there was, lots of posters have become too annoying to bother. but let’s avoid having old boomer Steve trying to discuss this stuff with a Marine Corps Intelligence Officer and UN Weapons Inspector.

    Steve did quality work for 20 years and used to be one of the best writers on the internet. let’s not Bruce Willis him now that he’s in great decline and on his way to becoming irrelevant.

    • Replies: @Greasy William
  433. @prime noticer

    I’m not a Boomer and I think that the Russian military has performed poorly. Ritter is an expert but experts get things wrong all the time. Russia will finish off the Donbas and the southeastern coast but after that the war almost certainly ends.

  434. Yahya says:
    @German_reader

    I was in the supermarket yesterday and buying some cheap Gouda cheese…I’m sure it cost just 1,99 Euros a box recently and had stayed at that price for years. Now it’s 2,59 Euros.

    Gouda cheese for 2.59 euros? Good heavens! How can anyone possibly survive with these sort of prices. May as well nuke Germany – it’s all over.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  435. German_reader says:
    @Yahya

    It’s a discount supermarket brand that is literally called Gut und günstig (Good and cheap).
    But as I did write the price rises in Germany are of course tolerable compared to the food shortages many people in countries like Egypt will in all likelihood experience because of the Ukraine war.

  436. LondonBob says:
    @utu

    Larry C Johnson and Pat Lang said most of the cruise missiles launched at Syria were intercepted, the damage inflicted was minimal, so makes sense.

  437. utu says:
    @Barbarossa

    “my father […] calling out the American invasion of Iraq from the onset as a colossal mistake and stating that they were going to unleash chaos in the country” – My exact feelings and they were very strong. At that time I found some solace in the American Conservative that published Pat Buchanan and others (Sniegoski iirc who was the first one to zoom in onto the Neo-cons). At that time I had no idea who was behind the publication except for the names of Buchanan and Taki but it all sounded right and reasonable. My friends who were also anti-war were turned off by “Conservative” in the title and refused to a accept a copy of the AC when I was trying to hand it to them.

    I was anti-war then against the invasion of Iraq for the same reasons and sentiments I am anti-war now and against the invasion of Ukraine. In this respect I think I am consistent as opposed to those who support Putin and Russia now and when criticized fall back on the old school of Soviet whataboutism and point out: and what about Iraq? What about Iraq? War on Iraq was wrong and it does not make the war on Ukraine right!

    Since then I have learned about Ron Unz but I haven’t questioned his motives. But now I wonder what has become of him and whether whatever makes him anti-American was already there in 2003.

    Still I am very grateful for the AM in 2003 and few years after it.

    BTW, I remember that Sailer was writing film reviews there and while knowing nothing about him and nothing about the IQism nd HBDism he is possessed by he sounded odd and off as somewhat an incomplete persons to me though I could not put a finger on it. But now I know more.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  438. It’d be ironically funny if the US or EU gradually builds up a command economy after sanctioning much of the world’s production and finance. Even when they have IoT I doubt their ability when enough people are exiting. Morbidly so if political establishments scale up domestic financial exclusion to the half of the political spectrum they don’t like (and I’m not just talking about Liberals). No one is on moral upper ground now.

    Economic war was waged on countries they were warring with (fair game) or socialist countries (which ideologically don’t require heavy foreign trade to survive). Russia wants to be capitalist and it’s the first time a genuinely capitalist economy has been sanctioned to such an extent. They’re now crossing the Rubicon of dismantling capitalism from within.

    • Replies: @Brás Cubas
  439. utu says:
    @A123

    You are recirculating garbage from Zerohedge. All this about WEF, fake Ukrainians, passports and so on. I think we could do w/o that character Daniel Ivandjiiski = Tyler Durden.

    The New York article made assertions regarding Ivandjiiski’s background, particularly his Bulgarian citizenship, his FINRA charge and lifetime ban from securities trading, and his father, Krassimir Ivandjiiski’s, own controversial news and political website, Strogo Sekretno (Bulgarian: Строго секретно; English “Top Secret”),[a] and Krassimir’s position in the pre-1990 Bulgarian-Soviet administration”. – Wiki

    • Replies: @German_reader
  440. German_reader says:
    @utu

    fake Ukrainians, passports and so on.

    Scale of the problem may be exaggerated (or not, who knows), but why do you think that’s implausible? Germany’s minister of the interior, a fanatical “antifascist”, is ruling out any attempts to register Ukrainian refugees (or “refugees”) at the border, of course this will be exploited by migrants who’ve got nothing to do with Ukraine (or who’ve managed to acquire fake Ukrainian papers).
    This is from a fairly mainstream media publication:
    https://www.merkur.de/lokales/garmisch-partenkirchen/garmisch-partenkirchen-ort28711/news-ukraine-krieg-gap-fluechtlinge-ankunft-bayern-garmisch-unterbringung-hotel-frauen-busse-91399748.html
    Hotel in Bavaria wants to house Ukrainian refugees…most turn out to be African and Asian “students”, who are unable to speak Russian or Ukrainian, and only broken English (lol).
    Where A123 is drifting into absurd conspiracy theory territory is his claim that “WEF elites” have manufactured the present war for this purpose, which I suppose is meant to absolve Putin from his responsibility for this war.

    • Replies: @utu
    , @A123
  441. German_reader says:
    @utu

    Since then I have learned about Ron Unz but I haven’t questioned his motives. But now I wonder what has become of him and whether whatever makes him anti-American was already there in 2003.

    Ron Unz only became publisher in 2007 (when American conservative was in financial difficulties iirc), I don’t think he had much, if anything, to do with the magazine in 2003 (I read its website back then, and certainly don’t remember him from the time of the Iraq war, it was Buchanan, Taki and Scott Mcconnell then, also people like Paul Gottfried).

    • Thanks: utu
  442. utu says:
    @German_reader

    Ukrainian refugees who came to Germany have passports or some other travel documents proving entry to Poland, Slovakia, Hungary or Romania so they can be tracked and identified by checking with say, Poland whether such and such person indeed entered from Ukraine, so I do not think that no checking on German border is an issue besides Ukrainians got special status to be able to travel to any country of EU.

    I agree that there are fake passports that actually can be quite real in circulations but this is what various gangs that traffic people always were doing and in case of corrupt countries like Ukraine it is quite possible to buy passports that are pretty real. There were fake-real Lithuanian passports that were in circulation and people dealing in them were caught in Ukraine not so long ago.

    I have read that in Poland non-Ukrainians were put in detention like centers if they wanted to stay in Poland and had to go through a rigmarole of applications and paper work that lasts very long and does not offer high chance of success. But if they did not want to stay in Poland and had passports of their countries even if they come fromUkraine they were allowed to travel anywhere if they can get visa but Poland does not consider them as refugees because they have their countries to go back to unlike Ukrainians.

    Then there are Gypsies who do not look like Ukrainians but like people form outside of Europe but they can be legitimate citizens of Ukraine.

    Passports scams are plausible but the scale of phenomena is very small I think. But ZeroHedge and its chief spokesmen assigned to the Unz Review make it to be the central conspiracy of Klaus Schwab and so on that under the cover of Ukrainian refugees EU will be flooded with half of Africa who will be starving pretty soon because of Zelensky who instead of ploughing the fields in Ukraine is shooting at Russians. So the solution is very simple: Ukrainians must surrender ASAP. Actually Ron Unz says pretty much the same that if Ukraine did not resist there would be no suffering. I wonder how he would respond to home invasion? How would he know that unresisted home invasion would not be followed with invasion of his body? Anyway, ZeroHedge, A123 and Ron Unz are selling us Russian disinformation. Unfortunately there are many idiots who buy it.

    I speculated before that A123 belonged to the Tel Aviv – Lubyanka axis but more specifically it is Brooklyn -Tel Aviv – Lubyanka axis of Chabad, Breitbart, ZeroHedge, Trump, MAGA and Qanonism. What is interesting is that A123 often responds promptly with elaborate and full of information and disinformation content as if he had access to lots of data on his finger tips. This would require a quite resourceful and knowledgeable individual, so I wonder whether it is a team that is assigned to several forums to push Brooklyn -Tel Aviv – Lubyanka spiel. Actually I would like to know how such an operations work and what does it take to launch them and sustain them. I suspect that a database of past comments is generated in real time and somehow parsed by AI to provide quick answers to queries that are similar that already have been posed.

  443. JL says:
    @LatW

    Putin kept saying the UA air force has been disabled, so how come they hit Belgorod now?

    The Russians claimed the depot was hit with Mi-24s, which are helicopters. Helicopters don’t belong to the air force, but to the army. And Ukraine still has some fully functional Su-27s parked in Romania, from what I gather.

  444. JL says:
    @LatW

    No, the surge in inflation was not due to labor shortages, but to decades of irresponsible monetary, fiscal and energy policy on behalf of the EU. If the problem is labor shortages then no need to worry, you’ll have plenty of fresh Ukrainian meat to fill the gaps.

    • Agree: German_reader
    • Replies: @LatW
  445. German_reader says:
    @utu

    so they can be tracked and identified by checking with say, Poland whether such and such person indeed entered from Ukraine, so I do not think that no checking on German border is an issue besides Ukrainians got special status to be able to travel to any country of EU.

    You don’t understand, the German government doesn’t want to check or control who’s coming, for ideological reasons (they’re also incompetent).

    But ZeroHedge and its chief spokesmen assigned to the Unz Review make it to be the central conspiracy of Klaus Schwab and so on that under the cover of Ukrainian refugees EU will be flooded with half of Africa who will be starving pretty soon because of Zelensky who instead of ploughing the fields in Ukraine is shooting at Russians. So the solution is very simple: Ukrainians must surrender ASAP.

    The part about Europe being flooded with Africans is likely to be correct, you don’t have any real argument against it.
    I agree though that it’s in effect pro-Russian propaganda to blame this on Ukrainian resistance to Russia’s invasion, the issues aren’t necessarily linked. If the political establishment in European countries wanted to stop non-European immigration, they could easily do so.

    I speculated before that A123 belonged to the Tel Aviv – Lubyanka axis

    I generally think you’re paranoid with your accusations, but I admit the thought has crossed my mind that A123 might be indeed be some kind of disinformation agent, given his peculiar views. Or maybe he’s just an individual with especially bizarre views. I don’t know.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
  446. iffen says:
    @Ron Unz

    America may have deliberately provoked Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

    Is that you Barb?

  447. @LatW

    If they did do it, it’s understandable, because it’s a total war now. In a total war, neither side respects the other’s border. Scary…

    btw, it should be reminded – according to the official RF propaganda narrative it is UA that attacked inside RF territory prior Feb 24, so for the usual casual average citizen in RF the border crossing thing is not somehow revolutionizing event in this war, as in their own ruler created alternative reality, which many casuals do believe honestly, it has already been done.

    • Replies: @LatW
  448. @utu

    That link was posted by RoatanBill, not by Ron Unz.

    • Thanks: utu
  449. Yevardian says:

    Doubt this to be on anyone’s radar or real interest, but it compelled me to comment here early so I could vent.

    Foreign minister Mirzoyan just made statements yesterday all-but-conceding that Armenia is giving up control of Artsakh and its people to the warm embrace of the Azeri post-Soviet Entity. I don’t think it needs further elaboration that that conflict is essentially a canary in the coal-mine for the war’s ultimate outcome.

    I held back earlier at my level of shock and dismay on Feb 24, I did not think Russia was at all ready for this confrontation, obviously a real war would not just be Ukraine, but the entire West, but I didn’t want to be defeatist (I even wanted to make a Gerard-gesture of solidarity to Karlin but his naked power-worship, blithe unconcern for consequences and seethe in the comments was just too much).
    The war did not start well and only seems to be getting worse. American deep-state turned out to still be much more competent than I gave it credit for, Russia’s much worse.. its obvious that this war was years if not decades in the making. Ideally Russia could have simply disbainfully ignored Ukraine like Czechia did Slovakia after independence, but of course constant and escalating provocations made that impossible. Russia might have got Ukraine to finally shut up and negotiate in good faith after Crimea chose to leave, but then Strelkov had to get official backing for his cowboy adventure in Donbass… Kremlins somehow managed to get worst of both worlds by keeping a endless low-intensity insurgency, they should have either annexed West of the Dniepr while Ukraine was paralysed, kept Crimea whilst washing their hands of Ukraine forever, or used it as a negotiating chip… I can only conclude at this point Putin really doesn’t have any long-term strategy. Maybe if Yeltsin and his scum entourage didn’t decide to destroy Primakov after realising he was too popular and competent for their own good, things would have turned out better.

    Ukraine is now destroyed, Russia’s economy and international credibility is probably going to be similarly fucked, and it goes without saying relations between the two will be irreparable for at least decades to come.

    Fuck him, fuck Pashinyan for putting faith in the West, fuck Victoria Nuland for the Maidan coup, fuck Zelensky for his false installing false hope while deep-state armed the country for what must be millions, fuck Putin for being dumb and so malinformed enough to fall for such an obvious trap, fuck Karlin for cheerleading for this total fiasco (he openly states he’ll abandon Russia instantly if it loses here, like a rat from a sinking ship), fuck everything. Not a very articulate or worthwhile comment I’m sorry, but atm I’m just overwhelmed with disgust and foreboding. I guess China will do ok, but that place is ultimately so alien I honestly can’t really care.

    C’est pire qu’un crime, c’est une faute.

  450. Yevardian says:
    @German_reader

    I generally think you’re paranoid with your accusations, but I admit the thought has crossed my mind that A123 might be indeed be some kind of disinformation agent, given his peculiar views. Or maybe he’s just an individual with especially bizarre views. I don’t know.

    I really think both of you are wasting headspace considering that handle, I blocked that thing a long time ago, I was even quite disappointed to see Our Benevolent Overlord himself interact with it. Doesn’t matter the topic, it will be some incoherent (can bots really string such things at this point?) mixture of gibberish about Biden, Iran, MAGA and Israel.

    I need to hear something optimistic re. either the West or Russia today.
    All I see in this regard now is crabs in a bucket, (now to violently mix metaphors) with barbarians pressing everywhere at the gates.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  451. @Ron Unz

    Michael Hudson, Mike Whitney, and a few other analysts have argued that America may have deliberately provoked Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, hoping to use it to eliminate the former’s growing economic ties with Germany and the rest of Europe in what was becoming an economically unified Eurasia. Maybe that’s correct, and if so, perhaps the invasion has benefited America, or at least some people thought it would.

    I find that reasoning extremely unlikely. Just look at the timing. Prior to the invasion, Germany was just about to close the deal with Russia on Nord Stream 2. I suppose it would be a matter of a few months at most. America’s “provocations”, on the other hand, were a continuing process, dating back to 2008, perhaps even earlier than that. Recent developments did not add anything that increased the perceived threat to Russia in a big enough way as to justify radical measures. If America hoped to provoke an invasion at such a short notice, they must have been quite clairvoyant that Russia would not wait until after Nord Stream 2 was in full operation to consider military action in Ukraine. By invading before the deal on Nord Stream 2 was closed, it was as if Russia severed its ties with Europe by her own free will. I don’t know why she would do that, but sometimes countries act in stupid ways.
    You can focus on Ukraine’s stupidity all you want, but it’s irrelevant. Wasn’t Putin himself who said that Ukraine is not even a real country? Is any of the commenters to whom you are addressing this question even Ukrainian? I don’t know that, but the most vocal do not seem to be. Non-Ukrainians can claim they love Ukraine all they want, but they won’t convince me that they aren’t primarily concerned about their own welfare in their European Union democratic Putin-free comfort.

    • Replies: @Brás Cubas
  452. AP says:
    @Ron Unz

    I’m on vacation with the family and other than checking the news will be mostly off line. Pending a more detailed response, I’ll say this: the Russian ultimatums were collectively similar to those made to Czechoslovakia, the Baltics and Finland prior to World War II the preceded the absorption of those countries by the ones making the ultimatums. They were a clear path to loss of statehood and full annexation as the next step. (recall the Putin has described Ukraine as a fake nation artificially separated from Russia).

    Ukrainians chose the Finnish path of fighting back. They believed (and most still do) that it was worth having a country despite the terrible price.

    Briefly:

    Demilitarisation- Ukraine is helpless

    Neutrality- No one can come to Ukraine’s aid when new demands or annexation comes into force

    Denazification- Russian code for purging Ukraine of patriots or nationalists

    Russian rights – Nice excuse for future intervention against a disarmed state for the sake of enforcing this condition

    Autonomy- veto power for pro-Russian regions over national policy. Goodbye EU association

    • Disagree: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
    , @Mikhail
  453. AP says:
    @Mikhail

    Pro-Russians like this guy writing about Ukraine’s “best interests” remind me a lot of Jewish neocons prior to the Iraq war insisting that they really have the best interests of the Arabs at heart.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
  454. Allegedly those are the findings after RF forces were driven out from Kiev satellite town of Bucha:

    https://twitter.com/J_B_E__Zorg/status/1510005388950876168/photo/1

  455. Yevardian says:
    @Ron Unz

    Now based upon all the Russian statements over the last few years and in the opinion of numerous American experts, the Russians wanted a neutral Ukraine what wouldn’t become part of NATO, wouldn’t have a strong military, and would agree to give local autonomy to the Donbas enclaves as had been promised in the Minsk agreements, plus maybe stopping government policies against the Russian language. Let’s assume that this is correct and agreeing to these conditions would have averted the Russian invasion.

    In hindsight, shouldn’t the Ukrainians have made those concessions to Russia?

    Up to a point, but in retrospect I think the ongoing violent Donbass/Lunhansk insurgency made negotiations impossible. Even without the Ukrainian government being infested by the US State Department, no government still somewhat accountable to public opinion, or with any hope of foreign support (however ultimately malevolent), could make real concessions to Russia under such conditions. Earlier Russia had also been shortsighted in insisting on stupid gas-transit squabbles for years, a few ultimately minor concessions or symbolic magnanimous gestures, even if Ukraine was being difficult on purpose, could have gone a long way in convincing public opinion of real and ongoing benefits of economic integration with Russia over the EU.

    Even without Crimea I think Ukraines could have swallowed their pride, considering the strategic necessity of the Peninsula, and the complete lack of Ukrainian culture or population there, but the limbo ‘Peoples Republics’ spoiled everything. It would be asking too much of any country not completely on its knees and internationally ignored.

    The closest analogy that comes to mind now is Turkey and Cyprus, still barely talking decades later. Also instructive to compare that with Turkey’s quick and decisive annexation of ‘The Hatay Republic’ it snatched from Syria.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  456. Yevardian says:
    @nickels

    As I was listening to this without bothering to watch the video, and in light of recent developments, I actually thought this video was genuine, with a growing sense of unease and dismay (so much it surprised myself) until I looked at it near the end it, noticing a few audio hiccups, and realised it was a fake.
    But whoever wrote this dialogue did an excellent job, it contains exactly the sort of face-saving phrases Putin or any other leader in his place would say in his place, reminded me of Pashinyan’s ‘not a defeat’ speech in 2020 (building up to the ultimate loss of the war, getting his perfume stolen).

    • Replies: @nickels
  457. @utu

    so I wonder whether it is a team that is assigned to several forums to push Brooklyn -Tel Aviv – Lubyanka spiel.

    This is sort of what I sometimes think about Miles Mathis but the reality is far more likely:

    A. we are kind of paranoid;
    +
    B. it is a real person who by combination of factors is obsessed and has a lot of energy and most definitely doesn’t have a family to provide for and eat up all their prime time.

    Mathis’ family of origin appears to be decently well-off and he definitely does not have a real job. If this kind of bullshit is your hobby horse you can type out reams in forty hours a week. It is most definitely an advantage that it does not have to add up. That is an extremely tight constraint.

    Also Mathis’ piece on the Manson murders is quite fine; I am kind of amazed he could do that.

  458. @German_reader

    I’m looking forward to it … when Germany becomes a failed economy and drags the rest of this worthless continent down with it.

    There is a historical resonance to this statement, but for the moment it eludes me.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    , @Beckow
  459. Wokechoke says:
    @Yevardian

    The Russian Game, and I admit it’s a game is to seed these separatist groups and then grab a bit of land, bite and hold. It has its positive and negative outcomes as we have seen in Georgia, Chechnya and Ukraine. They may or may not seek to replicate this after the Ukraine case is settled.

  460. @AP

    What national pride? Is the Ukraine refusing to continue buying Russian gas and allowing Russian gas to flow through its territory to the EU even now during the war? Is it checking that any oil they are receiving may not be of Russian origin and refusing it? It’s a funny kind of war as Russia is also allowing the Ukraine and its Western supporters to continue buying its gas, oil, and some other essentials.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  461. @Yevardian

    Russia’s economy and international credibility is probably going to be similarly fucked, and it goes without saying relations between the two will be irreparable for at least decades to come.

    Russia will see a modest decline this year but then stabilise at that level only to slowly go back up. They have now thrown their hat into the ring with the Chinese, and China can provide a full-spectrum alternative to Russia on virtually any issue.

    Ukraine’s future is much more gloomy. Even if Russia “only” settles for Donbass + a land corridor to Crimea, they will still be in economic ruin. It’s unclear who will invest given how weak its future prospects are. And that’s even ignoring the gigantic reconstruction costs, who will foot those? I wouldn’t bet on the West. Russia is likely to only care for captured territory. How many decades before Russia finishes the job with the rest?

    I suspect a substantial amount of refugees won’t go back even after the war ends despite relative safety, because the long-term economic prospects are terrible.

    fuck Karlin for cheerleading for this total fiasco (he openly states he’ll abandon Russia instantly if it loses here, like a rat from a sinking ship)

    I haven’t seen this claim, but it wouldn’t surprise me if what you say is accurate. Karlin’s always been a “rootless cosmopolitan” at heart. Multiple citizenships, jumps from country to country with a 5-10 year timespan. First UK, then America and now Russia. I half-jokingly advised him to go to Tel-Aviv next.

    He jumps into new political ideologies even faster (first MAGA, then alt-right, then Russian Nationalism). So him saying he’d abandon Russia if things go south is expected. At root, he’s an ethnically ambiguous person struggling to fit in anywhere with shaky loyalties to wherever he ends up being.

    But Russia won’t lose, so his rat-fleeing-sinking-ship maneuver won’t be needed just yet.

  462. Wokechoke says:
    @Commentator Mike

    The energy pipelines really are quite an extraordinary topic. Also why does Kiev have electricity if there was an intent to capture it? Water and Electricity ought to have been targets first day. Could have always blamed that on self sabotage.

  463. songbird says:
    @Yevardian

    I’m confused about the CSTO. On paper, aren’t the other members (leaves something still, even if Russia has its hands full) obligated to defend Armenia? Or does that just not apply to Artsakh?

  464. A123 says: • Website
    @utu

    What is interesting is that A123 often responds promptly with elaborate and full of information and disinformation content as if he had access to lots of data on his finger tips. This would require a quite resourceful and knowledgeable individual.

    I appreciate the complement. I have lots of knowledge, and can usually provide a confirming link or two fairly quickly.

    To the extent that a limited amount of bad data slips through. My apologies.

    so I wonder whether it is a team that is assigned to several forums to push Brooklyn -Tel Aviv – Lubyanka spiel. Actually I would like to know how such an operations work and what does it take to launch them and sustain them. I suspect that a database of past comments is generated in real time and somehow parsed by AI to provide quick answers to queries that are similar that already have been posed

    I sleep for much less than the typical 8 hours per day and sometimes have to coordinate with international colleagues. My posting timing is unusual, but not evidence of an AI or team.

    What organizer would fund a team to or AI to expose George IslamoSoros as a Muslim?

    I wish that type of support for the TRUTH existed. Sadly, it does not.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @iffen
  465. German_reader says:
    @Yevardian

    I need to hear something optimistic re. either the West or Russia today.

    I think you can forget about that for the next 50 years at least, probably forever.
    I don’t agree with you entirely about the causes of the war, but it is indeed a totally negative development. Ukraine destroyed and probably dismembered, globohomo ascendant in the West and relations between Westerners and Russians (not just their states, but at the level of the general populations) totally poisoned for decades. The war might eventually just end as a permanent stalemate or frozen conflict, with Russia annexing the Black sea coast and Donbass, and Western sanctions never being lifted. Terrible all around.

    • Replies: @JL
  466. Mikel says:
    @songbird

    LOL. Good catch.

    Good to see that he still preserves some sense of humor. He has lately been channeling an irate personality that I didn’t recognize in him. I guess embracing stuff like triune cosmism and making it an important part of your identity comes with such consequences.

    • Agree: songbird
  467. German_reader says:
    @for-the-record

    There is a historical resonance to this statement, but for the moment it eludes me.

    First time tragedy, second time farce.
    If it were up to me, things would be different. But most of my countrymen are retard lemmings without a grip on reality. And the other Europeans aren’t any better either. Europe’s future is going to be extremely bleak, as a technologically and economically stagnating area under the thumb of the US or possibly the Chinese, and with population replacement on a scale that will render much of the continent unrecognizable within the lifetime of today’s children. There aren’t even the preconditions for having a sincere discussion about Europe’s future, let alone working for a more positive (from my pov) version of it.

  468. A123 says: • Website
    @German_reader

    Where A123 is drifting into absurd conspiracy theory territory is his claim that “WEF elites” have manufactured the present war for this purpose

    Everybody keeps blaming America (directly) or “The West” (which is a coded way of saying America). The U.S. has an illegitimate President and is currently consumed by its own internal issues. It could not generate this problem.

    Announcing the desire to point nukes at Russia… Why would any Ukrainian official think they could get away with that? (1)

    Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany Andriy Melnik said the country is considering all its options.

    He said: “Ukraine has no other choice – either we are part of an alliance such as NATO and are doing our part to make this Europe stronger, or we have the only option – to arm by ourselves and maybe think about nuclear status again.

    Who gave Ukraine false hopes of EU membership and other fantasies? Who lured (possibly manipulated) Zelensky’s administration into provoking Putin with insanity like this?

    Europeans. Specifically, the dominant “authoritarian left” politicians of Brussels and Berlin. These actors serve Elite needs, not the populace that supposedly elected them. WEF Elites is thus useful shorthand. It points out the problem in a compact and useful way. European WEF Elites is sometimes better when people insist of trying to shift blame onto America.

    The problem with Europe is Europe, not America.

    I believe that you have cast a critical eye on both German and EU governance. When you are not lobbing inflammatory Troll phrases like “precious Trump” you seem to have a rational mind;

    Consider “Means, Motive, and Opportunity”:

    — How hard would it be to subvert a fragile democracy like Ukraine’s?
    — Do you really that European Open Borders “True Belivers” would not create a war to serve their extremist multicultural dogma?
    — What faction wins from an unnecessary Ukraine/Russia War?

    What I am suggesting is not particularly conspiratorial.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) From 2021 — https://www.the-sun.com/news/2713463/ukraine-nuclear-weapons-russia-putin-2/

  469. Beckow says:
    @for-the-record

    There is a historical resonance to this statement, but for the moment it eludes me.

    Maybe: what goes up, will eventually come down. Europe has had a few good decades after Russia self-destructed and started to give its resources away cheaply; often effectively for free if we adjust for currency holdings and oligarchs’ escaping wealth.

    After 2000 Putinism started to reverse it. The West hated it and accelerated the demonisation-overthrows-Maidans – it was always a longer-term alternative, but there was no rush, in the 90’s things were going well. With Putin they realized they had to move fast and couldn’t let the gravy train of cheap resources from Russia go away.

    By 2020 the reversal was almost in place, it was a question of time when the war starts. Now the dramatic split is out in the open. It is better that way; no pretense and fake promises.

    Without Russia’s cheap abundant resources EU will be poorer and less industrial. It was also paid for with “virtual money” issued at will by the buyers – a very sweet deal. This couldn’t go on indefinitely. Now for the consequences: inflation, shortages, deindustrialization covered up with “green” and “social” initiatives. It is a mirage, it will eventually adjust to the underlying material realities.

    That’s why the West insists that Russia can’t be allowed win – it is existential for both sides. There is an obvious risk in that. We are at beginning, this will be described as the phase before things really started to happen. It could all be avoided if EU had actual statesmen in power, people who could do deals and compromises (an obvious one was: “no NATO in Ukraine”). But it didn’t, or maybe couldn’t have, so we are where we are.

    When the dust settles Europe will be poorer, angrier and a bit if a backwater. Russia will be fuming for decades and jealously guard its resources. Ukraine will be smaller, even poorer, depopulated, forever spinning stories about “we were just going to Europe” and Zelensky was a “peacemaker” – see, we voted for peace, so why is all this happening to us?

  470. @Brás Cubas

    The last paragraph is babbling and I take it back.

  471. Nuclear based Musk is trying to knock some common sense into Germany’s current establishment&general public too:

    • Replies: @German_reader
  472. German_reader says:
    @sudden death

    They’re not going to do it, they’re ideological maniacs, and shutting down nuclear power was one of the major successes of the Greens and their sympathizers in the media. They worked for it for 30 years, reversing it would be highly embarrassing.

    • Replies: @sudden death
  473. @Yellowface Anon

    Maybe this is a case where the best is the enemy of the good. By trying to build a perfectly liberal world, the US may end up destroying liberalism altogether.
    P.S.: What’s IoT? Internet of Things?

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  474. songbird says:

    Did Reiner Tor underestimate Orbán?

  475. @German_reader

    imho, restarting closed ones is indeed a pipe dream, but “temporary” prolonging those three remaining active ones could be somewhat more realistic compromise option even for Greens, especially when the real threat of natgas embargo by RF is still looming.

  476. It seems that the Russians are retreating to the Donbas, where they will dig in, and be difficult to dislodge without the Ukrainians receiving a lot more heavy weaponry from the West.

    This will be done, but, with training needed, it might take a while to have an effect.

    In the meantime, Ukraine should overthrow Lukashenko. It would not be an easy operation. The methods used would need to be subtle, but it is clear that his regime is extremely vulnerable to Belarusians crossing back from defending Ukraine to kick him out.

    In this way, Russia will be fixed in place, desperately defending their occupation in Donbas, both from an insurgency within, and the Ukrainians without, meanwhile Putin loses Belarus from his orbit.

    Just as South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh and other locations are already imperilled.

    Russia seems to now be operating on the assumption that they can pick the areas for confrontation, but that is just lazy, cowardly thinking. Their retreat is from weakness and Ukraine has many more options and levers to pull.*

    As I said at the beginning of the war, Russia should end this now, because things can only get worse for them. Anything but an instant and maximalist victory would only begin a one way slide into doom. Better to apologise, admit mistakes and finish, than endlessly double down with a losing hand.

    *I can list the many other levers, but let’s not ruin too much of the surprise.

    • LOL: Mikhail
  477. @Triteleia Laxa

    We should be honored that even Victoria Nuland is posting here 😉

    • LOL: songbird
    • Replies: @Yevardian
  478. JL says:
    @German_reader

    You talk about the hopelessness of Germany and the rest of Europe, yet lament that relations between Westerners and Russians are poisoned for decades. For a lot of Russians, the divorce is welcome. The divergence in cultural norms and sociopolitical trends has been ongoing for quite some time, it’s clear there simply is no compatibility. Trade will exist, but be limited, and Russians will no longer look West with admiration. That’s a good thing, there’s not much to admire anymore besides beautiful architecture and a storied history.

  479. A123 says: • Website
    @German_reader

    it will be really funny when Germany becomes a failed economy and drags the rest of this worthless continent down with it.

    There are enough European Christians to create another outcome. The EU ends. Christian Europe builds a metaphorical, and in some cases physical, wall around Germany & Sweden to end the threat they pose to the rest of Europe.

    Impediments to European success include the disastrous EUR currency, austerity economics, and predatory German firms (banking and goods exporters). A Europe without Germany is primed to be economically and culturally successful.
    ____

    Sad for ordinary Germans, rather than funny. However, actions have consequences. 80%+ of German citizens vote for parties bent on destroying the German people. Its a multi party system. AfD is available now. If their history is too tainted, a new party could form. Yet, advancement towards inevitable suicide continues.

    I genuinely do not understand. Is there a previously undiscovered HBD factor? In multiple rounds of emigration, has the genetic capability to resist central authority been lost?

    PEACE 😇

  480. LondonBob says:

    https://www.intellinews.com/moscow-blog-first-steps-towards-peace-in-ukraine-but-not-there-yet-239778/?source=blogs

    Actually think this is quite accurate, if Mariupol is cleared next week and the Donbass front starts crumbling I think a deal is quite likely. Despite the hysteria this has been a limited operation with clearly limited goals.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  481. Mikhail says: • Website
    @AP

    Pro-Russians like this guy writing about Ukraine’s “best interests” remind me a lot of Jewish neocons prior to the Iraq war insisting that they really have the best interests of the Arabs at heart.

    Which “guy” – Unz me or someone else? As for the gist of what you say, how is it in Ukraine’s best interests to have refused the non-war option that would’ve given a better result for it?

    Like neocons are truly concerned about Ukrainians. Neocons don’t have the same concern for Arabs as do many Russians for the pro-Russian perspective on the territory of the former Ukrainian SSR – recalling Bush I saying that Ukraine should be hesitant about suicidal nationalism and William Burns’ prior cautioning of dangling NATO membership to Ukraine.

    Not everyone in Ukraine shares your slant.

    Also reminded when Kuzio said that Yanukovych was toast following the so-called “Orange Revolution”.

  482. Mr. Hack says:
    @Ron Unz

    Good questions! I’ll try to answer them the best that I can.

    the Russians wanted a neutral Ukraine what wouldn’t become part of NATO,

    If Ukraine had become a part of NATO sooner than later, it wouldn’t be involved in this war today. For most of its history since independence (1991 – 2014) it never fully pursued NATO membership. Most of Ukraine’s citizenry was opposed to NATO membership, and thus because NATO had no desire to be involved with a country which held itself with a low approval rating. Obviously, things changed after 201 4, and Russia opened a pandoras box within Ukraine for its desire to gain entrance in this organization. Some at this blog have suggested that Ukraine had already, by that time, lost its window of opportunity.

    wouldn’t have a strong military,

    Well, we all can see how foolish that notion has become? Without a strong military Ukraine would have ceased to exist as independent state after a three day cakewalk by Russia to Kyiv. We wouldn’t be having this discussion today.

    would agree to give local autonomy to the Donbas enclaves as had been promised in the Minsk agreements,

    This is a difficult and sticky problem for Ukraine to address. On the one hand, it couldn’t just let the Donbas wither away, as it practically has in regards to Crimea, for this would set another bad precedent for trying to keep its large state in one unified whole. Also, there’s the fact that unlike Crimea, this area had a majority of Ukrainians living within, today and historically. On the other hand, keeping it within Ukraine with its mostly Russified Ukrainian inhabitants would have always played to Russia’s hand and would have prevented Ukraine’s western EU aspirations. This is a hard nut to crack, and I admit that it’s probably above my pay grade to unravel.

    plus maybe stopping government policies against the Russian language.

    Here’s one area that Ukrainian officials probably acted too hastily, and could have come up with something more pragmatic and balanced to address the language situation in the greatly Russified Eastern area, especially within Donbas. Actually, if I’m not mistaken, the new language policy that was promulgated on the heels of Yanukovych’s departure in 2014 was one of the main reasons that the separatists gave for trying to secede from Ukraine. The reality was that the new language policy favoring the Ukrainian language never really took hold, and the locals never really felt any discriminatory backlash for continuing to use the Russian language. So, in effect the new law had no real effect other than to be used as a pretext for separation. For the few provinces that were heavilu Russified, a more balanced approach would have worked better, and allowed the “Easterners” to continue to use the language that they were most comfortable speaking. Ukrainian could have been implemented more slowly, especially within the school system, to influence the youth of the area to relearn what was for most of the inabitants their original mother tongue.

    Well, there you go, I hope that I provided you with some useful information, even if I couldn’t honestly unravel the whole mess for you in a pragmatic sort of way.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  483. Mikhail says: • Website
    @AP

    I’m on vacation with the family and other than checking the news will be mostly off line. Pending a more detailed response, I’ll say this: the Russian ultimatums were collectively similar to those made to Czechoslovakia, the Baltics and Finland prior to World War II the preceded the absorption of those countries by the ones making the ultimatums. They were a clear path to loss of statehood and full annexation as the next step. (recall the Putin has described Ukraine as a fake nation artificially separated from Russia).

    Ukrainians chose the Finnish path of fighting back. They believed (and most still do) that it was worth having a country despite the terrible price.

    Briefly:

    Demilitarisation- Ukraine is helpless

    Neutrality- No one can come to Ukraine’s aid when new demands or annexation comes into force

    Denazification- Russian code for purging Ukraine of patriots or nationalists

    Russian rights – Nice excuse for future intervention against a disarmed state for the sake of enforcing this condition

    Autonomy- veto power for pro-Russian regions over national policy. Goodbye EU association

    At some point, Zelensky could be going on a vacation. Post-Soviet Russia isn’t the USSR.

    Finland was offered a strategic land swap minus war. The Soviets ended up getting what they wanted. Soviet suspicion of Finland siding with Nazi Germany proved true. Thereafter, Finland did well in the post-WW II-Cold War period.

    Neo-Nazi influence in Kiev regime controlled Ukraine is a problematical reality for those opposed to this un-democratically bigoted scourge.

    Autonomy on the territory of the former Ukrainian SSR would’ve served as a basis to protect those territories who understandably reject the svido slant.

    Post-Soviet Russia readily accepted a truly neutral Ukraine, with the svidos and neocons having a different agenda.

  484. @Brás Cubas

    Ironic. But that’ll be post-liberal, from the non-neoreactionary side of the equation. Every path we will walk on necessarily abandon some or all tenets of the full liberal political thought (whether classical or even the post-60s pre-woke one). They might even abandon the Liberal label and take on a more accurate moniker for their new ideology (could be socialism).

    PS, Yes. Easy enough to track, aggregate and micromanage production and consumption with this, coupled with CBDC and UBI (perhaps some co-opting of cryptos too) on the fiscal-financial front.

    • Thanks: Brás Cubas
  485. Mr. Hack says:
    @Mr. Hack

    Sorry (but it was a somewhat long response and editing time goes by very quickly):

    and thus because NATO had no desire to be involved with a country which held itself with a low approval rating.

    should be:

    and therefore NATO had no desire to be involved with a country which held itself with a low approval rating.

  486. Mikel says:
    @utu

    I wonder how he would respond to home invasion?

    I think you got this backwards. In the case of a home invasion you definitely should try to defend yourself, especially if you have some self-defense weapons, as luckily many of us in the US have (and so does Ukraine as a country). What you don’t do when you see your home invaded is position yourself behind your wife and children, hoping that the invaders will not dare kill them.

    If you fail in your attempt to repel the invaders they may certainly kill your family but at least you’ve tried to do your best to save them as your primary goal.

    However, we live in a world where you would be considered a villain if you hid behind your family yet it is considered normal for the armed forces of a country to follow a totally equivalent strategy. And the difference is obfuscated by appeals to abstract concepts like sovereignty, territorial integrity, inviolability of a country’s borders,… Basically, words that magically turn the immoral into moral because it is tacitly understood, but never clearly expressed, that preserving the lives of its citizens is not the main goal of a country’s defense forces. Political goals are more important.

    Like everybody around the world, I am very impressed by the courage of the Ukrainians. I find hard to imagine the patriotism shown by the Ukrainian population anywhere in Western Europe. But that doesn’t change the fact that by taking cover inside cities the Ukrainian authorities are consciously subjecting their civilian population to massive damage.

    You may well respond with some of your inane accusations of me being a secret agent of some superpower but I think that in times of war people easily forget what is moral and what is not. For me, having grown up in a country plagued by the consequences of terrorism and repression, highlighting these things has always been important, no matter what others think.

    • Agree: Yevardian
  487. Wokechoke says:
    @LondonBob

    If you look at population concentrations in Ukraine, it appears that virtually no one lived north of Hostomel. It’s an irradiated zone near Chernobyl and empty of people all the way down to around the airport.

    We talk about the failure of capturing major cities but there’s one called Nova Kakhovka. Heard about that? 45,000 population bridge over the Dneiper. Hydroelectric dam. Berdyansk, that place the Ukrainians sank a landing ship. It’s a major deep water port, decent size population. Melitopol…nothing there right? 50,000 people It’s the junction of every road in the region and has water.

    The area north west of Kiev had an airport. That’s about it. The Russians smashed up the light industrial area in the northwest of Kiev which services Hostomel. The Wehrmacht did an airbonre assault on the airfields in Holland. It was a disaster but it did force the Dutch Royals to surrender. What the Russians did in Hostomel didn’t work out but that’s the nature of a parachute airborne operation.

  488. Wokechoke says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    The Russians are pushing across the Donets from Izyum and Terny. City which was wiped out in the shelling. The Ukrainians are putting paratroopers in the way as best they can on the flank. Missile attacks now at every power, electronic fuel and transit node connecting Dnipro and Slovyansk.

  489. songbird says:

    Should Hungarians adopt Pan-Mongolism?

    • LOL: iffen
    • Replies: @German_reader
  490. Mr. Hack says:

    Two Ukrainian helicopters cross the Russian border and bomb a large gas depot in Belgorod Russia. Is anybody really surprised? A little taste of their own medicine. Looks like Triteleia Lexa has finally missed one eventuality?

    File under: “What’s good for the goose is good for the gander”

  491. LatW says:
    @JL

    the surge in inflation was not due to labor shortages,

    My point was that inflation was already surging globally prior to February 24, due to various reasons. Supply chain disruptions due to Covid, etc. Heating bills jumped to insane levels months ago. It is dishonest to blame this all on Ukraine trying to defend itself and the West’s unanimous response. It was Russia’s choice to do this.

    If the problem is labor shortages then no need to worry, you’ll have plenty of fresh Ukrainian meat to fill the gaps.

    First of all, they’re not “meat”, but human beings, in the case of the Baltic countries, these people are the spouses and children of our saviors / defenders. The Poles, too, feel solidarity with them. Housing them is the least we can do. And, yes, it will be helpful to hire them (although they should rest first). There are posts on the job boards “Hiring Ukrainians” on many job ads. We need people. I see absolutely no reason to be contemptuous, as you sound here.

    • Replies: @A123
  492. LatW says:
    @sudden death

    it has already been done.

    Absolutely, it is a very common Russian MO that was employed before the invasion of our countries, too, in 1940.

    Frankly, these events just highlight the importance of stability of the borders. The security of the nation state is a guarantee against the non-European migrant assaults. The Ukrainians warned already a few years back that the number of migrants coming from the East, from the Russian territory, is increasing. It should’ve been vital to keep Ukraine’s border’s intact and well guarded.

    Not to mention that a Pandora’s box is being opened, to trigger conflicts elsewhere, where others will feel emboldened to do the same…

  493. A123 says: • Website
    @LatW

    My point was that inflation was already surging globally prior to February 24, due to various reasons

    Correct.

    In Germany, deranged “Green” initiatives have produced the highest (or 2nd highest) electricity price in Europe. Electricity, like diesel fuel, is an inflation multiplier as each value added step requires that input.

    In the U.S. we have intentional reduction of domestic hydrocarbon output under Biden’s regime. Its actions against pipelines are even more dangerous [MORE]. Needless to say, America also had run away inflation long before the current Ukraine fiasco.

    PEACE 😇

    [MORE]

     

    • Replies: @LatW
  494. German_reader says:
    @songbird

    That might clash with their links to Pan-Turkism:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organization_of_Turkic_States

    Since late 2018, Hungary has been an observer and may request full membership.

    Are Mongols (or Avars) cooler than Turks? Difficult question.

    • Replies: @songbird
  495. @Mikel

    I remember how before the war started the “experts” were saying that all those Javelins would be useless because the Russians would obliterate the Ukrainian forces with stand off weapons before actually invading. Instead, the Russian generals decided pretty much to charge directly against the Javelins on multiple fronts…

    But wait, there is more to come – it was not some strange coincidence last time when rather big armies were clashing in roughly the same areas the battles are going now, all war participants were trying to start and do all their own biggest ground offensives in summer. Yeah, I mean 1941, 1942,1943 and 1944.

    Right now some country is regrouping and trying to do the biggest and certainly very quick crushing victorious Donbas offensive against the strongest defence lines during coming spring with thawing grounds and soon starting April potential cloudy raining…just after they couldn’t finish some offensive against a capital in a place where there were just relatively minor UA forces and no prepared defence lines in advance, lol

    • Replies: @Mikel
  496. songbird says:
    @German_reader

    Observer status! ROTFL!!!

    Are Mongols (or Avars) cooler than Turks? Difficult question.

    I don’t know. When I look at a map of Organization of Turkic States, that seems like a lot of territory, centrally located so it would make a good springboard.

    OTOH, I like how Mongolians have that big statue of Genghis on his horse looking Westward and also assert that the Great Wall is their southern border.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  497. Beckow says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    ….Ukraine should overthrow Lukashenko.

    Riiight. Why stop there? Ukraine should overthrow Kazakhstan, China, Armenia, Iran – and, as a small side-project, also Russia.

    The pro-Kiev Donbas insurgents you mentioned just met on a Prague bench to plot. They were subtle and even let an old lady sit there, although it wasn’t a big bench.

    The levers are in motion…next, a coffee break and then storming Kremlin.

    • LOL: Brás Cubas
  498. German_reader says:
    @songbird

    I once read some eyewitness account of the 1241 Mongol invasion of Hungary and it was really disturbing, graphic stuff. Like women being gang-raped in front of their families, or people who had fled to the woods being lured back by promises they wouldn’t be harmed…so they would bring in the harvest for the Mongols, only to be killed afterwards. Really sounded like a level of calculating violence that was well beyond the level usual in European warfare.
    The recent DNA study about Avars is pretty fascinating, very weird thought that actual Mongols (or a Mongol-like people) persisted in East Central Europe for two centuries, and apparently fairly unmixed at least among the elite. One wonders what happened to them, did Charlemagne really decimate to such an extent they just faded away?

  499. Yevardian says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    As I said at the beginning of the war, Russia should end this now, because things can only get worse for them. Anything but an instant and maximalist victory would only begin a one way slide into doom. Better to apologise, admit mistakes and finish, than endlessly double down with a losing hand.

    This can be argued from a short-term humanitarian perspective, but this is not how any state operates anywhere. It makes no sense on other level, Russia will remain sanctioned anyway, consequences for political stability both internally and immediately abroad would be catastrophic, logic of war leaves literally no choice but to finish what it started. Do you think any country ever has gained anything from ‘admitting its mistakes’? International relations are not comparable to personal ones, admission of any guilt only shows (quickly exploited) weakness, a more real analogue is the mafia.

    Point about overthrowing Lukashenko is too unbelievably stupid to bother addressing. Russia will still win in Ukraine through virtue of scale, all these recent setbacks simply mean the war will bloodily drag on for many more months, which I can’t see being in Ukraine’s interests, or anyone else’s, except China or the US.

    • Replies: @LatW
    , @216
  500. Yevardian says:
    @sudden death

    Zhirik, Victoria Nuland, Putin and Xi all loyal readers of Karlin’s blog, even after he left in pique.. very impressive.

    • Agree: sudden death
  501. Yevardian says:
    @German_reader

    The recent DNA study about Avars is pretty fascinating, very weird thought that actual Mongols (or a Mongol-like people) persisted in East Central Europe for two centuries, and apparently fairly unmixed at least among the elite. One wonders what happened to them, did Charlemagne really decimate to such an extent they just faded away?

    The Hungarian Székely minority in Romania popularly consider themselves the descendents of the Avars. Nomadic peoples naturally were never especially numerous compared to any settled population, though they often loom large in history since they often functioned as an entire armed nation on the move. You can see the how Bulgars were totally assimilated into the local slavic population in Thrace, Cimmerians in Phrygia, Vandals in Africa (although their entire elite was also deported with Byzantine reconquest) or the (Iranian and ‘caucasian’) Tocharians in the Tarim basin etc.
    Cases of nomads like the Magyars, Arabs (though the historical account here has numerous extreme issues) or Turks imposing their language and culture on the lands they conquered are extremely unusual.

  502. LatW says:
    @A123

    In the U.S. we have intentional reduction of domestic hydrocarbon output under Biden’s regime.

    Right, should this war not budge his attitude a little bit?

    From what I understand, though, the stunted relationship between the current administration and the industry is not the only problem, unfortunately (as that could be overcome through talking). There are apparently other more substantial obstacles to increasing production (there are problems with investment, supply chain, infrastructure, labor). Too bad Ukrainian men are busy fighting, they could’ve helped out on the oil rig.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @216
  503. iffen says:
    @A123

    This would require a quite resourceful and knowledgeable individual.

    Or a mediocre Israeli propaganda bot.

  504. LatW says:
    @Yevardian

    Point about overthrowing Lukashenko is too unbelievably stupid to bother addressing.

    It’s not. Lukashenko’s position is precarious. The support among Belarusians to enter the war on the Ukrainian territory and murder Ukrainians is not that high. There were fears a couple of days ago that Belarusian troops could attack from the north any day now, that rockets could be fired toward Western Ukraine from Belarus. It’s possible that Putin was hoping to lean on them. But Lukashenko has stalled. The Belarusian troops are not experienced, if they were to enter battle, they should be given a quick blow so they understand their mistake. In that scenario, Lukashenko would be under a lot of pressure from his own people. The Belarusians don’t have the means to overthrow him, but his situation would become more precarious. Not to mention that he’s already having to take care of the massive number of the Russian bodies and the wounded (the hospitals in Belarus are pretty full with Russian soldiers, is there enough space for the wounded Belarusians in the future?)

    One option that I already mentioned before would’ve been for the West to offer Lukashenko security guarantees. Do not enter the war and you will be spared in the future.

    Not to mention that there is a Belarusian group present that has been fighting on the Ukrainian side since 2014.

    • Replies: @Aedib
  505. songbird says:
    @German_reader

    I once read some eyewitness account of the 1241 Mongol invasion of Hungary and it was really disturbing

    Could have sworn I heard someone here once suggest that the Mongols were Divine vengeance on the Avars for violently invading. But maybe, I am misremembering it.

    I think a lot of progressives like the Mongols, for their religious tolerance and for allowing long trade routes to be opened up.

    did Charlemagne really decimate to such an extent they just faded away?

    I get the idea that he must have replaced a lot of them with Slavs. They seem to have clung on for some time after, in certain areas, but, maybe, converting to Christianity and the loss of much of their power, helped universalize the remaining ones.

    Just generally, I suspect that the Hungarian Plain may have been a bad place to be an aristocratic family.

  506. Aedib says:
    @LatW

    And what is the support to Juanita Tikhanovskaya?

    • Replies: @LatW
  507. LatW says:
    @Aedib

    And what is the support to Juanita Tikhanovskaya?

    That’s irrelevant right now. What is relevant is that he hasn’t yet stepped into the battle with his troops (although Belarus is definitely a party to the war, since the attack came from their territory), maybe the Belarusian troops will step in during the next phase. As Oleh Zhdanov mentioned in his interview, missiles are being taken to Belarus so it’s possible that they will fire from there. But the fact remains that Luka is still somewhat cautious and has not involved his troops.

    • Replies: @sudden death
  508. Wokechoke says:
    @LatW

    Ukrainians are dying for a geezer who thinks pissing his own pants is a sensible way to stay warm.

  509. @LatW

    The man on the left is Mikhail Podolyak, member of UA negotiating team, who is also an adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak and an “anti-crisis manager” of the Office. According to Wiki, he controls the entire information policy of the Office of the President and advises Volodymyr Zelenskyy directly. In addition, he prepares ministers of the Ukrainian government for broadcasts in the media so that their theses are coordinated with the content promoted by the president.

    What is quite interesting though, he lived in Belarus since 1989 and graduated from the Minsk Medical Institute. In 2004, he worked as deputy editor-in-chief of the opposition Belarusian newspaper Vremya. In June 2004, officers of the KGB of Belarus came to his house and gave him half an hour to collect his things. The Belarusian authorities accused Podoliak that his activities “contradict the interests of state security”, and the materials contain “slanderous fabrications about the real situation in the country, calls to destabilize the political situation in Belarus”. He was deported to Ukraine and denied the right to visit Belarus for five years.

    So our valuable poster, named Tritelea Laxa, might have been quite precise&truthful in fact when writing about potential UA knowledge, influence and abilities towards northern supporting sector of RF aggression 😉

    • Replies: @sudden death
  510. @sudden death

    *should be the man on the right ofc, as on the left is bearded Arakhamia with his iconic negotiating baseball cap 😉

  511. @Max Payne

    Not from what I’ve seen of Russian photonic capabilities. They don’t have decent local wafer processing abilities. Constantly begging for samples from IQE.

  512. @Aedib

    Faker gibberish. Ukraine has been flying about 5 helicopters a day into Mariupol for weeks. The orcs got one (was it Thursday?). Faker is trying to turn it into an orc success story. I have no doubt that there are foreign advisors there. A number of SAS troopers deserted the British Army over a month ago. Helicopters are not the only option. The UK has probably taken advice from Colombian drug barons on the best blockade runners. The Royal Navy Armilla patrol is a decade or more old blockade against cocaine reaching the West Indies.

  513. songbird says:

    Have to say that I am skeptical of this particular Tyler Durden story:
    https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/humans-infected-mind-altering-parasite-seen-more-attractive

    As I think infections decrease symmetry, and it is hard to understand how they could increase it. (IMO, “Toxoplasma goggles” would be more likely.) But it is pretty fun, in a sci-fi way.
    _____
    BTW, I wonder what JayMan makes of Sammo Hung.

  514. 216 says: • Website
    @LatW

    The Interior Secretary is a Native woman that views hydrocarbon drilling as “white colonialism”.

    The bigger obstacle is pipelines, which face lawsuits wherever they are planned.

  515. 216 says: • Website

    The alleged massacre in Bucha is MH-11 all over again. But this time it might trigger the deployment of Western ground troops.

  516. @sudden death

    Russia of All the Russias? The Russian Federation? We’d need context to see that clearly. All the Russias has certainly gone. What happens in Belarus when the Russian army collapses in the South and East? Lukashenko has sent his army back to barracks. It looks as though they won’t attack despite their Russian officers. Next step on from that is to march on Minsk.

  517. 216 says: • Website
    @Yevardian

    Do you think any country ever has gained anything from ‘admitting its mistakes’?

    The German cult of national guilt has done wonders for German business interests. Japan can only dream of a regional common market with its cold neighborhood relations. But at least the Japanese aren’t (yet) facing the prospect of being a minority in their own land.

    Germany forced a far tighter fiscal policy in the EU post-2009 than occurred in the USA.

    • LOL: German_reader
  518. Dmitry says:
    @LatW

    Lol but it makes sense he feels surprised he was targeted by sanctions as he is just a robot, like all this media.

    He’s not a “journalist”, he doesn’t have an independent view that he is responsible for (only some freedom in unimportant topics, like his promotion of Israel).

    Europe and Italy for him, would be a time when he can relax after the hard work and escape the aggressive media persona, for this gangster impolite television.

    You put the coin into a coin slot and choose what you want him to say. It’s impersonal because he says what authorities want him to, and authorities want is not his responsibility. In his case, he is providing a public service like “Two Minutes Hate” (https://orwell.ru/library/novels/1984/english/en_p_1), but not limited for two minutes.

    If you don’t control something, then are you responsible for it? Psychologically a lot of people won’t necessarily feel responsible, even about things they control, let alone where their decision is outsourced to those higher in rank within organization.

    In terms of international law there is another view and you won’t be able to escape responsibility so easily, of course.

    In more totalitarian society, most people have so little control, that it goes in another direction. The public try to identify with the authority, to feel some kind of responsibility for its decisions (even though 99,99% have no power at all). People try to feel like they have some responsibility, in areas their power is less than zero.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
  519. @Dmitry

    In more totalitarian society, most people have so little control, that it goes in another direction. The public try to identify with the authority, to feel some kind of responsibility for its decisions (even though 99,99% have no power at all).

    Some but not all. Another common response is apathy. They pretend to pay us and we pretend to work.

    We are leaving thousand dollar bills on the sidewalk all over the place. The untapped human potential is huge. Huger than Donald the Fat’s belly by orders magnitude.

  520. Dmitry says:
    @Barbarossa

    Lazards’ unsubsidized, levelized cost of energy should be trying to account for subsidies and degradation of equipment, etc.

    Surely it’s not perfect, but the wind energy is at least cheap now, when wind is going. Problem is it doesn’t have the same steady production, without including storage, as there are days without wind. And storage will increase cost by a lot, if you need to install farms of batteries.

    running my home off grid, so I’m not exactly a gas guzzling oil lover.

    How did you generate energy for running your home offgrid?

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
  521. songbird says:

    One benefit of small nuclear power plants is that you could potentially truck them into place quickly and present the Greens with a fait accompli.

  522. Dmitry says:

    CEO of Yandex (this is a search engine which is like a local equivalent of “Google” in Russia) Elena Bunina has emigrated to Israel, apparently being able to avoid international sanctions through some kind of internal office maneuvers . She is a mathematician nerd so you don’t expect sanctions avoiding skills for such people
    https://academy.yandex.com/dataschool/profile/bunina

    Either she is lucky, or some kind of Machiavellian genius, because there is no report she has received international sanctions yet, while her replacement received the sanctions the day after she quit, and he quit immediately as a result.

    She has been CEO of Yandex for last 5 years. The day before EU sanctioned Yandex, she quit as CEO. Then her replacement CEO was appointed, and he received EU sanctions against him (https://www.vedomosti.ru/business/news/2022/04/02/916346-generalnii-direktor-yandeksa). After he received sanctions, he quit Yandex and emigrated from Russia. Then she was default CEO again, and yet still avoided the sanctions, and now parachutes to become HR manager in a Yandex Israel office in Tel Aviv.

    It appears the Machiavellian genius, except that Yandex ecosystem is being limited by sanctions and she doesn’t parachute into a developed Western European country.

    She avoided sanctions, to a comfortable parachuted job, but could be locked in a Middle Eastern country, under threat of Hamas and Hezbollah rockets, ISIS shooting attacks, and life surrounded by millions of Jewish rednecks and Muslim (even more) rednecks.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  523. German_reader says:

    Ukrainian ambassador to Germany (in reference to Ritter Sport still doing business in Russia…apparently their Hitler chocolate is a crucial factor in Russian warmaking capability):

    Of course he knows that he can be as insolent as he wants, there’s no way he’ll face any consequences as long as this war goes on, especially since there are now pictures of civilians massacred by the Russian army. And with his comments he’s tapping into a non-trivial segment of German opinion which thinks economic interests are immoral per se (this was already very evident during Corona among lockdown enthusiasts). His main thrust seems to be for an immediate, total gas embargo (which seems misguided even on a pragmatic level, since it’s bound to cause resentment against Ukraine, would be smarter to let the Russians cut off the gas).
    He’s also written an article in Tagesspiegel (“A reckoning”) about German president Steinmeier whom he accuses of being a Russian stooge. I hate Steinmeier for other reasons, but still, I wonder if any ambassador anywhere else has ever done something like this, quite extraordinary behaviour.

  524. 216 says: • Website
    @German_reader

    Pro-Russian sentiment is de-jure illegal in many European countries, and soon to be “de-facto” in the rest.

    Without Kiev as a hostage, where does Russia get the leverage to force sanctions to be lifted?

    pictures of civilians massacred by the Russian army.

    Remember what the dead kids pictures did in 2014?

    • Replies: @German_reader
  525. Dmitry says:
    @Dmitry

    She has been CEO of Yandex for last 5 years. The day before EU sanctioned Yandex, she quit as CEO. Then her replacement CEO

    Oops sorry I misreported the story in this post (I would ask for edit function to save the accuracy of my posts), as a result of Russian media’s articles.

    She was CEO of Yandex LLC while the EU sanctions are against deputy CEO (Tigar Khudaverdyan) of Yandex NV in Netherlands.

    “Khudaverdyan was sanctioned in the EU as an individual. Neither Yandex NV nor any of its subsidiaries have been sanctioned by the United States, EU or Britain.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yandex-director-general-steps-down-130817623.html

    She quit carefully as CEO Yandex LLC one day before the EU sanctions against Tigar Khudaverdyan, so she seems like she had inside information and was trying to avoid possibility of sanctions against her. But nothing is Machiavellian like I had misreported (from reading Russian media), as Yandex is not being sanctioned.

    Tigar Khudaverdyan (deputy CEO of Yandex NV) possibly contributed to increasing probability sanctions against himself, by attending Putin’s meeting with business leaders February 24.
    https://techcrunch.com/2022/03/16/russia-yandex-news-vk/

    • Replies: @LatW
  526. German_reader says:
    @216

    Without Kiev as a hostage, where does Russia get the leverage to force sanctions to be lifted?

    lol, the sanctions will never be lifted, they’ll stay until after all of us commenting here are dead.

    Remember what the dead kids pictures did in 2014?

    I don’t believe it’s all made up, Russian troops probably did commit some kind of war crime (even if Ukraine may exaggerate). But I guess one will have to wait a long time for any serious analysis of what exactly happened there.

    • Replies: @216
  527. 216 says: • Website
    @German_reader

    It looks far, far worse than anything the US has done in the last 30 years. The reports indicate another Katyn. If true, even I can’t oppose the deployment of a NATO peacekeeping mission (which I suspect would confirm a de facto partition).

    • Replies: @German_reader
  528. German_reader says:
    @216

    If true, even I can’t oppose the deployment of a NATO peacekeeping mission

    Are you deliberately writing stupid comments, or can’t you just help it?
    Of course the Russians are doing terrible things in Ukraine, but all the reasons against direct NATO intervention (“peacekeeping mission”, lol, as if this were merely a bigger version of Yugoslavia) are still perfectly valid.
    I always found it strange when years ago commenters here went to the greatest mental contortions about how Assad couldn’t possibly have ordered use of poison gas, it was all made up…like they implicitly accepted the argument that if he had done so there would be a duty to intervene. Apparently it’s too much even for people on a site like this to accept that there’s a lot of outright evil in the world, but that there still can be plenty of good arguments not to do a military intervention.

    • Replies: @216
    , @Thulean Friend
  529. Dmitry says:
    @Yevardian

    By the way, you will have to forgive me for writing “Tigar Khudaverdyan”. But you have to admit sounds cooler than “Tigran”.

    Armenian settlement in Karabakh has been de facto lost in November 2020.

    Aliev just accepted polite diplomatic solution, in which Azerbaijan surrounds Stepanakert from all sides and controls its only supply corridor.

    In military terms, Azerbaijan already owns all this land now, as if you fully surround a territory and control its only supply corridor, then you are de factor ruler of it.

    I think Armenia territory itself is safe in the military sense, but its threats are from the demographic and mass emigration. As fate has at least temporarily reversed this through sanctions against Russia, now Armenia becomes a destination of Russian immigration.

    China will do ok, but that place is ultimately so alien

    Who knows about China, but Chinese people individually will become less culturally alien, if China continues economic development. You can see when you meet Chinese people. Older Chinese, more culturally divergent, younger, wealthier Chinese, seem more “Westernized”. People from Taiwan and Hong Kong similarly.

    Putin for being dumb

    I think killing of people, creating of refugees, is more of a condemnation, than “being dumb”. In the end, he might not have any negative consequences personally, so it’s not dumb necessarily from his selfish perspective. He might benefit, increase his position. Decision to invade Ukraine, might be viewed as “clever” (although not “wise”, which implies a moral aspect), if his power increases after this war. But in Ukraine millions of people have negative consequences as result of February 24.

  530. nickels says:
    @Yevardian

    Yes – The story line was well done.
    I had PTSD flashbacks to Trump cucking over and over and over and over and over.

    • LOL: A123
    • Replies: @A123
  531. Yevardian says:
    @German_reader

    especially since there are now pictures of civilians massacred by the Russian army.

    I heard normie chatter about this the other day, I immediately dismissed it either gossipy chitchat or atrocity propaganda (what military purpose could this possibly serve?), does anybody have any reliable source for this? There is a huge psychological difference in indiscriminate shelling of infrastructure and lined-up executations, even if the ultimate result is the same.

    @LatW

    It’s not. Lukashenko’s position is precarious. The support among Belarusians to enter the war on the Ukrainian territory and murder Ukrainians is not that high. There were fears a couple of days ago that Belarusian troops could attack from the north any day now, that rockets could be fired toward Western Ukraine from Belarus. It’s possible that Putin was hoping to lean on them. But Lukashenko has stalled. The Belarusian troops are not experienced, if they were to enter battle, they should be given a quick blow so they understand their mistake. In that scenario, Lukashenko would be under a lot of pressure from his own people.

    Yes, but the key factor you just pointed out, Lukashenko has very relunctant to commit to this war, once again, he’s successfully wriggled out from Kremlin dictat whilst still maintaining friendly relations. ‘Overthrowing’ Lukashenko would only result in Belarus becoming a heavily contested and chaotic borderland like Ukraine, possibly even armed conflict with the current situation. I don’t think Belarusians are such total utter retards to risk that.

    One option that I already mentioned before would’ve been for the West to offer Lukashenko security guarantees. Do not enter the war and you will be spared in the future.

    You know that Western hubris and moralising makes this impossible. And that’s assuming the US wants peace and stability for any nation that isn’t their vassal, pretty laughable supposition. I’m not saying Russia is different in this respect, but it strongly sounds like you’re suggesting creating another warzone for the sake of ‘democracy’, frankly your views are sounding increasingly Neoconish to me. I guess you’re a Balt so I shouldn’t expect too much nuance from you, perhaps everything does boil down to ethnic grifting in the end.

    • Replies: @216
    , @LatW
    , @German_reader
    , @A123
  532. 216 says: • Website
    @Yevardian

    You know that Western hubris and moralising makes this impossible. And that’s assuming the US wants peace and stability for any nation that isn’t their vassal, pretty laughable supposition

    That’s who we are though. We’re not going to stop being this way, no matter who is in charge. It is indeed why we are hated, but also why we became great in the first place.

    Anyone can see that I’m critical of the current regime in the US, but I will never stop believing that our way is superior and that our traditions must be restored. Without that, we would be truly adrift, liberalism would run to its untenable conclusion.

  533. Dmitry says:

    No details about this yet. I guess the worst possibility on spectrum would be Aliev doing “Ryazan sugar” (afterall, Heydar Aliyev was a head of KGB), while “best possibility”, if you can use this for a tragedy, would be a gas explosion.

  534. 216 says: • Website
    @German_reader

    Of course the Russians are doing terrible things in Ukraine, but all the reasons against direct NATO intervention (“peacekeeping mission”, lol, as if this were merely a bigger version of Yugoslavia) are still perfectly valid.

    The US looks weak and feckless after Afghanistan, if we can’t restrain the Russians from committing atrocities then I’m not sure that anyone is going to fear us.

    Apparently it’s too much even for people on a site like this to accept that there’s a lot of outright evil in the world, but that there still can be plenty of good arguments not to do a military intervention.

    Hundreds (thousands, tends of thousands???) of dead civilians/POWs changes the calculus. Russia lost in 2014 because of MH11. Russia can only win now in 2022 as long as there is a credible anti-war sentiment in the West.

    It might just be gone.

    • Replies: @LatW
  535. Mikel says:
    @sudden death

    Yes, somehow I doubt that plan B will work too well either. Reports coming from the fronts in Donbass don’t paint a rosy picture right now at all: https://kenigtiger.livejournal.com/2132047.html

    But if things get very ugly I guess Russia can always go medieval or decree a full mobilization. Or both, as Strelkov and others keeps demanding. That could possibly lead to WW3, though.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
  536. songbird says:
    @German_reader

    Donald Trump Threw Starburst Candies at Angela Merkel, Said ‘Don’t Say I Never Give You Anything’

    https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-threw-starburst-candies-angela-merkel-dont-say-i-never-give-you-987178

    • Replies: @A123
  537. LatW says:
    @Yevardian

    Yes, but the key factor you just pointed out, Lukashenko has very relunctant to commit to this war, once again, he’s successfully wriggled out from Kremlin dictat whilst still maintaining friendly relations. ‘Overthrowing’ Lukashenko would only result in Belarus becoming a heavily contested and chaotic borderland like Ukraine, possibly even armed conflict with the current situation. I don’t think Belarusians are such total utter retards to risk that.

    I was not calling on overthrowing Lukashenko, just saying that the other poster’s point about trying to neutralize him in one way or another would be something that could be worth trying as his position is not all that stable. By neutralizing I do not mean “overthrowing” or “assassinating” but pressuring him to stay put, which he has done himself anyway in his typical manner (remains to be seen if that continues, read Oleh Zhdanov’s warning that Belarus can be used as a staging ground for more missile attacks in the second wave of the offensive). There was a pretty high possibility that they would engage.

    Many in Belarus do not like this and have been sabotaging the Russian movements along the railways. I have never called for armed conflict there, just for restraint, despite their allied relationship with Russia. Do not misconstrue my words. And please understand that if Putin goes, so will Lukashenko. Btw, if Belarusians so fear risking armed conflict, as you say, they should’ve stayed out of this. Beyond scandalous to even imagine that a Belarusian will strike a Ukrainian.

    [MORE]

    Why do you assume that ousting Lukashenko (hypothetical, there is no one there to oust him), would necessarily create a warzone? It would create political turmoil, maybe some civil unrest, maybe annexation by Russia. Certainly, Ukrainians wouldn’t be shooting at them in that scenario. It is exactly Belarus’ readiness to engage in the war against Ukraine that could prompt Ukraine to strike back and strike hard to teach their inexperienced troops a lesson. Do you realize that Lukashenko has been threatening Ukraine, not vice versa? Hopefully, they saw what goes on in their hospitals (the wounded Russians must be in a horrific state plus all the 200s) and they saw the Russians being pushed out from the suburbs of Kyiv, scorched out literally. I guess that lessened Lukashenko’s appetite to go “and get our Ukraine back”.

    Btw, I do not appreciate Putin telling Lukashenko that Belarus needs access to the sea (that was on TV recently).

    You know that Western hubris and moralising makes this impossible.

    It’s just a thought experiment. Of course, it’s not the most realistic thing at the moment, but why not try? Nothing can be guaranteed, but it could just be a move to make him think for a minute, to put more doubt in him.

    And that’s assuming the US wants peace and stability for any nation that isn’t their vassal, pretty laughable supposition. I’m not saying Russia is different in this respect

    Russia just destroyed the beautiful suburb of Bucha, so no, absolutely, not, Russia does not want peace and stability, it’s laughable to even bring this up. You have any idea how much time and resources went into creating all that, a lot of it was newly built! People were finally starting to have a nice life!

    but it strongly sounds like you’re suggesting creating another warzone for the sake of ‘democracy’, frankly your views are sounding increasingly Neoconish to me. I guess you’re a Balt so I shouldn’t expect too much nuance from you, perhaps everything does boil down to ethnic grifting in the end

    .

    Spare your ad hominems. Excuse me, where do I lack nuance? Defending one’s nation state and helping against a common enemy is now “grifting”? Ha, you’re the one to talk as an Armenian. Do not turn my words around. The Belarusians themselves were on their way to “create another warzone” because of their provocative actions, treacherously using their country as a staging ground for war, shooting missiles towards Volyn, assembling troops and you call me aggressive??

    My position has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with Neocons, who might be a thing of yesterday anyway and I’m not really a fan of their agenda, this has little to do with the US at all in fact, this is all between us and them. It’s been this way for hundreds of years, way before the US and Neocons even existed. They don’t want us to thrive. Or even to exist.

    Beautiful Bucha before the arrival of the Russian world… thankfully, the Ukrainians just regained control of it.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Beckow
  538. LatW says:
    @Dmitry

    Btw, Nevzorov fled to Dubai.
    Sobchak has been in Israel for 2 weeks now.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  539. LatW says:
    @216

    Hundreds (thousands, tends of thousands???) of dead civilians/POWs changes the calculus.

    There is some data that around 3000 women could have been raped in the occupied territories. The siege of Mariupol is also something demonic. There are newborns dying there because of it.

    if we can’t restrain the Russians from committing atrocities then I’m not sure that anyone is going to fear us

    It’s not so much about “fearing”, the status of the US could get eroded and the US would not get invited to the table as much as before, calls would not get answered. However, the US has given unprecedented military help (these Switchblade drones are truly amazing). If those planes had been provided, it could’ve made a difference, even without a “NATO peacekeeping force”, the Ukrainians would do the fighting themselves.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Troll: Mikhail
  540. LondonBob says:

    Looking like Orban will win, his stance on the Ukraine having boosted him.

    Alexander ‘Boris’ Johnson and Joe Biden continue to slide.

  541. LondonBob says:
    @Mikel

    Shows why a limited war in Donbass would have been a disaster, feeding troops endlessly in to a frontal assault on a very well fortified narrow front that could be endlessly resupplied. Putin was right to not go with that option.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/02/eastern-ukraine-frontline-scene/

  542. Pro Bono says:
    @German_reader

    Of course he knows that he can be as insolent as he wants, there’s no way he’ll face any consequences as long as this war goes on,

    Worst of all this is that many if not most of those 153 kids and the rest of civilians are dead because of this Ukie Army scumbag policy of taking cover in the cities and firing from residential buildings, policy designed to maximize civilian losses to prompt a Serbia like international intervention, nuclear escalation be damned. And this propagandist knows about all of this very well.

    In spite of all that here you are, moronically advocating for EU countries to keep sending weapons to the scumbag leadership in Ukraine, policy that is gonna keep this very avoidable conflict (and inflation, energy crisis, instability, stream of fake and real refugees and most importantly, risk of a nuclear incident and escalation) going for longer than it should.

    How retarded is that? You often criticize your fellow contrymen as a bunch of retards shooting themselves in the foot, but judging by your policy suggestions in relation to the ongoing conflict, I cannot say you are much different from them. You clearly do not understand what is best for Germany and her population.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    , @Philip Owen
  543. LondonBob says:

    Don’t know hay anyone would be believe the very fake images coming out of Bucha. Bodies in warzones have a lot of blood and are torn up.

    • Replies: @sudden death
  544. @Pro Bono

    scumbag policy of taking cover in the cities and firing from residential buildings

    Can’t wait for your fiercely righteous condemnation of scumbag Red Army taking cover in Leningrad&Stalingrad, firing from within, starving&destroying inhabiting civilian populations 😉

    • Replies: @sudden death
  545. @sudden death

    Also thunderous condemnation should follow for fukin allies sending food supplies and lend lease weapons to scumbag commie leadership, policy that kept very avoidable conflict in Lebensraum East zone going for longer than it should have been going!

  546. @LondonBob

    Bodies in warzones have a lot of blood and are torn up.

    Ever heard of small relatively far flying shrapnels from exploding shells, even smaller than a bullets quite often? Or imagine such an unbelievable miracle as seriously wounded people, who can still move a limb, even if they potentialy can die soon afterwards?

    • Replies: @LondonBob
  547. LondonBob says:
    @sudden death

    Yes, I discounted that for obvious reasons.

    Anyway what does that have to do with a supposed corpse moving its arm and then sitting up?

    • Replies: @sudden death
  548. German_reader says:
    @Yevardian

    what military purpose could this possibly serve?

    There could be many reasons. Maybe Russian troops were frustrated, had taken losses from sniper fire or something similar and suspected the civilians of being irregular combatants. Maybe they thought they were spies. Or maybe Russia really has kill lists of Ukrainians it considers especially hostile. I don’t think one can dismiss any of these possibilities out of hand.
    But it will be a long time, if ever, until we know for sure.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
  549. @German_reader

    I always found it strange when years ago commenters here went to the greatest mental contortions about how Assad couldn’t possibly have ordered use of poison gas, it was all made up

    For someone claiming to be a dissident, you’re still remarkably susceptible to midwit normie propaganda.

    • Agree: LondonBob
    • Replies: @German_reader
  550. You will see Putin is genuinely playing the long game when the Yellow Vests and their German counterparts pin the exorbitant gas prices on Klaus Schwab.

    There could be “domestic terrorism”, and then popular revolt down the road, where the new government adopts New Right ideology and works with Putin to build the Brest-to-Vladivostok archeofuturist vision.

  551. @LondonBob

    Can’t see “sitting up” part very well at all, but lack of much visible blood and some movements are absolutely natural in case of small yet incapacitating shrapnel wounds and potentially serious inner bleeding, without coming very instant/permanent loss of consciousness or death.

    Ofc in this particular video those people lying in the street at the open are way more likely to be civilian victims of ongoing street battles like in Mariupol, than some deliberate massacre.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  552. LondonBob says:
    @German_reader

    I think you can dismiss them, that you don’t reflects your prejudices. Professional armies, regardless of where and when, do not massacre civilians hence why on the rare occasion they do it is an outrage. Everything I have seen so far is the Russian Army has operated well within the laws of war, at a cost of increased losses.

    The ones I have seen, and I tried to avoid such things, look fake because they are fake. Gonzalo Lira got banned from twitter for pointing out a couple of fakes were all filmed with the same background but from different angles, you can see it on his telegram account.

    I don’t doubt unpleasant things will happen but they will be directed at the paramilitary forces. As for the Ukrainians I have seen ample evidence of atrocities directed at civilians, as is almost always the case when paramilitary, rather than professional, forces are utilised. In that Wapo article I link to it says 550 suspected collaborators have been arrested in the Donbass for supposed treason, what happened after they were arrested, it does not say?

    • Replies: @German_reader