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Open Thread 182: Russia/Ukraine
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The previous Open Thread is approaching 900 comments and reportedly getting a little sluggish, so here’s a new one for the Karlin Community.

— Ron Unz

 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: Open Thread, Russia, Ukraine 
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  1. Look at this idiot!

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    @Yellowface Anon

    It's a remarkable cope. Pushing Russia and China closer together is definitely not in the US national interest (NATO and US are interchangable, since the non-US members of NATO are just pliant satraps).

    Even more hilarious is the meme that this would somehow aid in creating an anti-China balancing coalition in Asia. This conflict will create greater pressures for the US to commit to Europe, thereby reducing their capability to "pivot to Asia". All the major powers in Asia are either friendly with Russia or neutral. Neither have been willing to join the sanctions regime. India is already buying oil at discounted prices.

    The news yesterday that Assad is now being welcomed in the Gulf capitals is yet further proof that the US imperial diktat are losing their power. Beyond this war, I think we will look back at it as an inflection point in the relative power balance of the US vis-a-vis everyone else. America will still be by far the most powerful country for the foreseeable future, but it won't be omnipotent, as it was during the "unipolar moment" (1990-2020).

  2. china-russia-all-the-way says:

    The advance from the Kherson axis is moving towards Zaporizhzhia. It is home to airplane engine and gas turbine manufacturer Motor Sich, the crown jewel of Ukrainian manufacturing. A Chinese firm acquired a stake in Motor Sich in 2017 but Trump administration pressure compelled Zelensky to issue decrees freezing ownership. There is ongoing international arbitration brought by the Chinese firm against the Ukrainian state for expropriating its shares in Motor Sich.

    Chinese investors have brought a \$3.5 billion arbitration case against Ukraine for blocking the sale of a strategic aircraft engine maker whose fate Washington is closely following.

    Motor Sich owner Vyacheslav Bohuslayev agreed in 2017 to sell a majority stake in the company to Skyrizon, triggering concerns in Kyiv and Washington over the transfer of its advanced technology to Beijing.

    Former national-security adviser John Bolton told Ukrainian officials last year during a trip to Ukraine that the U.S. opposes the sale of the company to China. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reiterated that message this year.

    However, Motor Sich needs large-scale investment to stay competitive, and Western companies haven’t shown great interest in buying the Soviet-era company, which employs thousands of workers, putting Washington and Kyiv in a tough position as they seek a solution.

    If there is heavy fighting, it looks like the factory will get destroyed. A loss for everyone.

    • Thanks: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @china-russia-all-the-way


    factory will get destroyed. A loss for everyone.
     
    Who cares about a aerospace factory, from this context. It will be reconstructed, although who will pay is another question. If the airplane industry recovers, then there will always be demand. The important and irreplaceable issue of war, is that thousands of people are killed.

    Aside from the loss for the people killed themselves, most Ukrainians and the slavic part of the Russian population are from families with only one child now. So, even non-civilian, "military losses" of soldiers, are often parents losing their only child.

    Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way

  3. RUS forces held back most of their higher tech equipment since there was not much reason to use it against UKR units. but that ended today, when they deployed their first hypersonic strike. ostensibly to hit a far away UKR target, but the main reason was to show the US they have it, and they’re more advanced than anything in US inventory, that the US cannot stop these things, and let’s not escalate things please. stay out of this regional conflict.

    other than declining a No Fly Zone, President Joe Brandon is doing everything possible to escalate the situation, which is how global wars start. contrary to what they say, the White House and the State Department don’t want the conflict to end. their actions show they want it to continue.

    this was a medium range HS missile, so i’m thinking the ICBM sized ones are pretty capable indeed, and make US carrier groups into just being targets.

    • Agree: Commentator Mike
    • Replies: @A123
    @prime noticer


    first hypersonic strike. ostensibly to hit a far away UKR target, but the main reason was to show the US they have it,
     
    Not-The-President Biden lacks the mental capability to absorb current facts. His SJW Davos WEF puppet masters are emotion driven & uninterested in data. Therefore, it would be 100% pointless for Russia to waste a high cost munition trying to show something to the blind.

    The purpose for using the system was range, payload, and time to target. Reading between the lines, they were going for something mobile and wanted to complete the mission while the target was at a known location. There is no way to confirm this from the outside unless a Ukrainian General turns up dead at the site.

    It also served as a real world test case to look for minor issues that need to be addressed for accuracy and reliability. Complex weapons systems are rarely 100% perfect when released.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @prime noticer, @Commentator Mike

  4. A123 says: • Website
    @prime noticer
    RUS forces held back most of their higher tech equipment since there was not much reason to use it against UKR units. but that ended today, when they deployed their first hypersonic strike. ostensibly to hit a far away UKR target, but the main reason was to show the US they have it, and they're more advanced than anything in US inventory, that the US cannot stop these things, and let's not escalate things please. stay out of this regional conflict.

    other than declining a No Fly Zone, President Joe Brandon is doing everything possible to escalate the situation, which is how global wars start. contrary to what they say, the White House and the State Department don't want the conflict to end. their actions show they want it to continue.

    this was a medium range HS missile, so i'm thinking the ICBM sized ones are pretty capable indeed, and make US carrier groups into just being targets.

    Replies: @A123

    first hypersonic strike. ostensibly to hit a far away UKR target, but the main reason was to show the US they have it,

    Not-The-President Biden lacks the mental capability to absorb current facts. His SJW Davos WEF puppet masters are emotion driven & uninterested in data. Therefore, it would be 100% pointless for Russia to waste a high cost munition trying to show something to the blind.

    The purpose for using the system was range, payload, and time to target. Reading between the lines, they were going for something mobile and wanted to complete the mission while the target was at a known location. There is no way to confirm this from the outside unless a Ukrainian General turns up dead at the site.

    It also served as a real world test case to look for minor issues that need to be addressed for accuracy and reliability. Complex weapons systems are rarely 100% perfect when released.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @prime noticer
    @A123

    uh, they destroyed a munitions warehouse. not any moving target. they could have used other missiles to do this. in fact RUS started using ship launched cruise missiles a few days ago to hit other targets in west UKR.

    the main reasons to use Kinzhal were to test it out in a real battle to make sure it works (although it's possible these were tested already in Syria), and to show NATO that they have it.

    they haven't used Zircon and probably won't.

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @A123, @Wokechoke

    , @Commentator Mike
    @A123

    Hypersonic may be used for its bunker bursting potential as that was an underground arsenal. The explosion didn't look like much on the surface but may be its because most of it was underground.

    Replies: @A123

  5. @A123
    @prime noticer


    first hypersonic strike. ostensibly to hit a far away UKR target, but the main reason was to show the US they have it,
     
    Not-The-President Biden lacks the mental capability to absorb current facts. His SJW Davos WEF puppet masters are emotion driven & uninterested in data. Therefore, it would be 100% pointless for Russia to waste a high cost munition trying to show something to the blind.

    The purpose for using the system was range, payload, and time to target. Reading between the lines, they were going for something mobile and wanted to complete the mission while the target was at a known location. There is no way to confirm this from the outside unless a Ukrainian General turns up dead at the site.

    It also served as a real world test case to look for minor issues that need to be addressed for accuracy and reliability. Complex weapons systems are rarely 100% perfect when released.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @prime noticer, @Commentator Mike

    uh, they destroyed a munitions warehouse. not any moving target. they could have used other missiles to do this. in fact RUS started using ship launched cruise missiles a few days ago to hit other targets in west UKR.

    the main reasons to use Kinzhal were to test it out in a real battle to make sure it works (although it’s possible these were tested already in Syria), and to show NATO that they have it.

    they haven’t used Zircon and probably won’t.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @prime noticer

    I had been hearing doubts that the Russians even had operable hypersonics and that it may take years for them to be usable on the battlefield. This strike seems to put an end to that speculation.

    Replies: @Sean, @Ron Unz

    , @A123
    @prime noticer


    the main reasons to use Kinzhal were to test it out in a real battle to make sure it works
     
    I concur with this part of your commentary. While tested & functional, minor bugs are inevitable & opportunities to improve exist.

    uh, they destroyed a munitions warehouse. not any moving target. they could have used other missiles to do this
     
    We know that a munitions facility was destroyed. We do not know that was the only target. Perhaps it was, but as you point out there are other (presumably cheaper) options for such a simple task.

    Why use a "very fast", expensive option?

    The implications is that "very fast" had a potential reward that was unavailable with a slower mission. Some possibilities:

    GOOD -- Munitions Warehouse
    BETTER -- Munitions Warehouse + Supply Convoy
    BEST -- Munitions Warehouse + Specialists, Trainers, or other high value personnel

    For obvious reasons, combatants do not share intelligence underlying their actions. It is purely an unprovable guess on my part. I admit that. To me, a potential battlefield gain (better or best) is plausible.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @sudden death

    , @Wokechoke
    @prime noticer

    Nah. No warning, no way to get out, no way to move stuff.

    The ammo dumps need to be methodically demolished.

  6. @prime noticer
    @A123

    uh, they destroyed a munitions warehouse. not any moving target. they could have used other missiles to do this. in fact RUS started using ship launched cruise missiles a few days ago to hit other targets in west UKR.

    the main reasons to use Kinzhal were to test it out in a real battle to make sure it works (although it's possible these were tested already in Syria), and to show NATO that they have it.

    they haven't used Zircon and probably won't.

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @A123, @Wokechoke

    I had been hearing doubts that the Russians even had operable hypersonics and that it may take years for them to be usable on the battlefield. This strike seems to put an end to that speculation.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Barbarossa

    They probabally have what they say but not very many of them. The reduction of Kiev will be by howitzers, but they surely do not have that amount of artillery ammunition on hand, so it will be up to the Chinese to help while the stocks are built up.

    , @Ron Unz
    @Barbarossa


    I had been hearing doubts that the Russians even had operable hypersonics and that it may take years for them to be usable on the battlefield. This strike seems to put an end to that speculation.
     
    That's exactly my impression. Former CIA Analyst Larry Johnson has always seemed a pretty solid guy, and he had some interesting things to say about the missile strikes:

    https://sonar21.com/russia-exploits-ukraines-western-flank/

    He seems to think that there were 200+ KIA in that target near the Polish border, including lots of British and American military and intelligence personnel despite the MSM still claiming only 30-odd Ukrainians. That seems a big positive to me since the more high-value British and Americans the Russians kill, the more likely our military may pressure our political morons to start being sensible.

    In effect, the campaign gives the Russians a nice opportunity to test some of their hypersonics under battlefield conditions. Assuming they're working as claimed, that might give Putin outright military superiority over NATO, with the capability of annihilating our conventional forces.

    If this is even half-correct, the continuing endless American arrogance and aggression of the Neocons looks even more totally insane than before.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123, @LondonBob, @Triteleia Laxa, @Barbarossa

  7. @prime noticer
    @A123

    uh, they destroyed a munitions warehouse. not any moving target. they could have used other missiles to do this. in fact RUS started using ship launched cruise missiles a few days ago to hit other targets in west UKR.

    the main reasons to use Kinzhal were to test it out in a real battle to make sure it works (although it's possible these were tested already in Syria), and to show NATO that they have it.

    they haven't used Zircon and probably won't.

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @A123, @Wokechoke

    the main reasons to use Kinzhal were to test it out in a real battle to make sure it works

    I concur with this part of your commentary. While tested & functional, minor bugs are inevitable & opportunities to improve exist.

    uh, they destroyed a munitions warehouse. not any moving target. they could have used other missiles to do this

    We know that a munitions facility was destroyed. We do not know that was the only target. Perhaps it was, but as you point out there are other (presumably cheaper) options for such a simple task.

    Why use a “very fast”, expensive option?

    The implications is that “very fast” had a potential reward that was unavailable with a slower mission. Some possibilities:

    GOOD — Munitions Warehouse
    BETTER — Munitions Warehouse + Supply Convoy
    BEST — Munitions Warehouse + Specialists, Trainers, or other high value personnel

    For obvious reasons, combatants do not share intelligence underlying their actions. It is purely an unprovable guess on my part. I admit that. To me, a potential battlefield gain (better or best) is plausible.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @A123


    Perhaps it was, but as you point out there are other (presumably cheaper) options for such a simple task.
     
    Those cheaper options as Kalibr missile may be simply running out of stock atm ;)

    Replies: @sudden death, @prime noticer

  8. The US is going to give Ukraine the tiny ‘switchblade’ drones, probably in huge numbers. These are dubious as a ‘defensive’ weapons, and are going to slaughter Russian soldiers in huge numbers. If Putin is forced to pull back out of Ukraine and Russia is humiliated then the winner will be surely China, not the West.

    Long term it is in China’s interest to take some pain for supporting Russia now. Russia is never going to ally with the US against China in the future after this, and without Russia, China can not be contained. China will probably end up brokering an agreement and its prestige will be immense. The West declining in relative importance is the inevitable future, and defeating Putin fast forwards it.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    @Sean


    The US is going to give Ukraine the tiny ‘switchblade’ drones, probably in huge numbers. These are dubious as a ‘defensive’ weapons, and are going to slaughter Russian soldiers in huge numbers.
     
    A weapon is only as good as its user. Russia has been hitting major supply depots in recent days since apparently the Ukrainians are not good at dispersing the arms they are getting and not good at preventing leaks where these arms are located either. The hypersonic missile fired yesterday hit an underground bunker with a gigantic cache of weaponry. So I'll press X to doubt about these drones - or any other weapon given - being a "gamechanger".

    Replies: @prime noticer, @Sean, @AP

    , @Brás Cubas
    @Sean

    I agree that's a possible scenario, but things might take a different turn. Germany had no problem becoming a docile ally to the U.S. after the World War II humiliation.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Sean

  9. @Barbarossa
    @prime noticer

    I had been hearing doubts that the Russians even had operable hypersonics and that it may take years for them to be usable on the battlefield. This strike seems to put an end to that speculation.

    Replies: @Sean, @Ron Unz

    They probabally have what they say but not very many of them. The reduction of Kiev will be by howitzers, but they surely do not have that amount of artillery ammunition on hand, so it will be up to the Chinese to help while the stocks are built up.

    • Agree: Barbarossa
  10. @A123
    @prime noticer


    the main reasons to use Kinzhal were to test it out in a real battle to make sure it works
     
    I concur with this part of your commentary. While tested & functional, minor bugs are inevitable & opportunities to improve exist.

    uh, they destroyed a munitions warehouse. not any moving target. they could have used other missiles to do this
     
    We know that a munitions facility was destroyed. We do not know that was the only target. Perhaps it was, but as you point out there are other (presumably cheaper) options for such a simple task.

    Why use a "very fast", expensive option?

    The implications is that "very fast" had a potential reward that was unavailable with a slower mission. Some possibilities:

    GOOD -- Munitions Warehouse
    BETTER -- Munitions Warehouse + Supply Convoy
    BEST -- Munitions Warehouse + Specialists, Trainers, or other high value personnel

    For obvious reasons, combatants do not share intelligence underlying their actions. It is purely an unprovable guess on my part. I admit that. To me, a potential battlefield gain (better or best) is plausible.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @sudden death

    Perhaps it was, but as you point out there are other (presumably cheaper) options for such a simple task.

    Those cheaper options as Kalibr missile may be simply running out of stock atm 😉

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @sudden death

    Also here's the strike moment of this wunderwafle weapon onto some warehouse, which at least visually does not seem to be much different from an ordinary artilery strike:

    https://avia.pro/sites/default/files/images/bpla_tg.mp4

    https://avia.pro/news/opublikovano-video-udara-raketoy-kinzhal-po-vsu

    , @prime noticer
    @sudden death

    "Those cheaper options as Kalibr missile may be simply running out of stock atm"

    that's possible. but i don't think so in this case.

    running out of bombs and missiles in 2 weeks is what the France and UK military does.

  11. I’m going to take a break from Unz for a month or two in the next couple days, and the internet in general. I’ve been spending too much time obsessively following this war, and since in the end I’m totally removed from it, it starts to feel like voyeurism. Trudging through the dishonesty, intense anger and propaganda on both sides isn’t really rewarding either.

    Could anybody here who reads recommend some books (fiction, essays or history), also in Russian, Spanish or even Romanian? I’m pretty familiar with Russian and English authors, but I almost know nothing about Spanish literature (read Borges and Paz, didn’t like either very much, actually I enjoyed reading Eduardo Galeano’s leftist tracts better).

    I’m thinking to finally read one Hillgruber’s main works, although it seems most of his output has never been translated, in general if someone (utu?) might recommend some ‘powerful’ accounts of Europe 1918-1945 (anything like e.g. Lothrop Stoddard’s ‘Into the Darkness‘), that aren’t wally-tier revisionist garbage, I’d be thankful.

    I’ve also been looking (admittedly not very hard) for a detailed general history of France, something broad that isn’t also just a shallow survey. It feels like an absolutely overwhelming proportion of books in English (or Russian) are about the Revolution, its background, or Napoleon, it’s actually not that easy to find a balanced history that doesn’t treat all French history as a leadup or aftermath of those events.

    Also wondering if there’s been any major books dealing with Israel, China (last thing I read was Fenby’s ‘Fall and Rise of a Great Power: 1850-2009, obviously a lot changed since then), Turkey (I’ve only read Zürcher’s book on modern Turkey), Greece (Roderick Beaton has an excellent survey, but it ends in 2007) or Russia in the past 20-30 years that avoid being hyper-partisan, or at least attempt emotional distance and objectivity? I’m close to finishing a recent (and quite acid) account of Gorbachev’s presidency, Vladislav Zubok’s ‘Collapse’, which just came out last year. So a good detailed work on the Yeltsin years to the present I’m looking for.
    Probably now would also be a good time to read a modern history of Ukraine too, I read two recently but one was a brief summary and the other was just a partisan travel account of the country post-Maidan.

    Also maybe German_Reader (did you read Barnes work on Ammianus?) could recommend any particularly interesting papers or books on Antiquity? I finished Anson’s work on Eumenes, ‘A Greek Among Macedonians’, recently that was absolutely excellent, I’d recommend for anyone who has an interest in that period.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Yevardian


    I’m going to take a break from Unz for a month or two in the next couple days, and the internet in general.
     
    Probably a good idea, I should do the same, but don't have the will power. There's not really much point to talking about the day to day events of this idiotic war anyway, and while I lean more towards the Ukrainian side the extreme partisanship of many commenters for one side or the other is irritating. We'll eventually see what political outcome it leads to (something none of us here has any influence on).
    I hope though you'll be back eventually, I appreciate your comments.

    Also maybe German_Reader (did you read Barnes work on Ammianus?) could recommend any particularly interesting papers or books on Antiquity?
     
    No, haven't read Barnes' book about Ammianus yet. tbh I haven't read Ammianus yet. I hope I'll get around to it eventually. I've managed to read larger bits of Tacitus in the last two years (Histories 1-2, Annals 11, the Agricola and the Dialogus de oratoribus), but Ammianus' ornate Latin is even more difficult, don't know when I'll manage to seriously engage with it.
    Can't recommend you any academic books on ancient history, I don't really follow the field, sorry. Maybe A. H. M. Jones' classic about the later Roman empire, but I guess you already know that anyway.
    , @Beckow
    @Yevardian


    ...detailed general history of France
     
    Yeah, the focus on Napoleon and Revolution is tedious. There are books by Nancy Goldstone on Joan d'Arc and Catherine Medici, 15.-16.centuries. There is a narrative push - create a storyline and fit everything into it come hell or high water - but if you get over it, there are illuminating insights into France and the way power politics works.

    Leaving this forum is in my view unnecessary, it is one of the few places where different perspectives meet. This war is the most important event in a long time, it will impact everything. It will go on for months and following it can get tiresome. If Poland (as NATO) comes in as a retro reenactment of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact this could still get quite hot. Too hot for what is at stake. I hope you come back for that.
    , @Dacian Julien Soros
    @Yevardian

    Can you read Romanian? I find current-year Romanian literature as formulaic as current-year world literature or current-year pop music. I think Marin Preda and Camil Petrescu were the best novel writers, but neither was translated to English AFAIK. Both are half-realistic writers, reflecting the Romanian life in the first half of the 20th century.

    Replies: @Yevardian

    , @Agathoklis
    @Yevardian

    Beaton's book was rubbish.

    , @Blinky Bill
    @Yevardian


    Could anybody here who reads recommend some books (fiction, essays or history).
     
    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcS_-I9vQx4iPgouzZsR4Q81ZQEZ9SP-c6_lbg&usqp.jpg


    I'm sorry, I couldn't help myself.

    , @Dmitry
    @Yevardian

    Have you read Herodotus yet? I feel like I remember German Reader was going to advise us to read him.


    Spanish literature
     
    Maybe Unamuno could be interesting? I never read his books though. Probably, Mikel has a view. This is the kind of book I would look for as a souvenir in Spain.

    For political discussion about Latin America, there is a stereotypically looking bourgeois, non-Marxist writer from Peru, Mario Vargas Llosa, who writes essays about Latin American politics. But I didn't read them yet. I read a few of his articles in El Pais sometimes.

    Replies: @New Dealer, @Adept

    , @Sasu
    @Yevardian

    I gave Borges and Paz a go in the past and didn't like them much either. I do however enjoy Garcia Marquez. If you liked Galeano and aren't put off by Latin leftism, check out Roberto Bolano. Admittedly I don't know a lot about Spanish language literature, but he is one of my favorite writers, period.

    , @AP
    @Yevardian

    Cortazar is enjoyable, if you like "magical realism."

  12. @sudden death
    @A123


    Perhaps it was, but as you point out there are other (presumably cheaper) options for such a simple task.
     
    Those cheaper options as Kalibr missile may be simply running out of stock atm ;)

    Replies: @sudden death, @prime noticer

    Also here’s the strike moment of this wunderwafle weapon onto some warehouse, which at least visually does not seem to be much different from an ordinary artilery strike:

    https://avia.pro/news/opublikovano-video-udara-raketoy-kinzhal-po-vsu

  13. @sudden death
    @A123


    Perhaps it was, but as you point out there are other (presumably cheaper) options for such a simple task.
     
    Those cheaper options as Kalibr missile may be simply running out of stock atm ;)

    Replies: @sudden death, @prime noticer

    “Those cheaper options as Kalibr missile may be simply running out of stock atm”

    that’s possible. but i don’t think so in this case.

    running out of bombs and missiles in 2 weeks is what the France and UK military does.

  14. @prime noticer
    @A123

    uh, they destroyed a munitions warehouse. not any moving target. they could have used other missiles to do this. in fact RUS started using ship launched cruise missiles a few days ago to hit other targets in west UKR.

    the main reasons to use Kinzhal were to test it out in a real battle to make sure it works (although it's possible these were tested already in Syria), and to show NATO that they have it.

    they haven't used Zircon and probably won't.

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @A123, @Wokechoke

    Nah. No warning, no way to get out, no way to move stuff.

    The ammo dumps need to be methodically demolished.

  15. @A123
    @prime noticer


    first hypersonic strike. ostensibly to hit a far away UKR target, but the main reason was to show the US they have it,
     
    Not-The-President Biden lacks the mental capability to absorb current facts. His SJW Davos WEF puppet masters are emotion driven & uninterested in data. Therefore, it would be 100% pointless for Russia to waste a high cost munition trying to show something to the blind.

    The purpose for using the system was range, payload, and time to target. Reading between the lines, they were going for something mobile and wanted to complete the mission while the target was at a known location. There is no way to confirm this from the outside unless a Ukrainian General turns up dead at the site.

    It also served as a real world test case to look for minor issues that need to be addressed for accuracy and reliability. Complex weapons systems are rarely 100% perfect when released.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @prime noticer, @Commentator Mike

    Hypersonic may be used for its bunker bursting potential as that was an underground arsenal. The explosion didn’t look like much on the surface but may be its because most of it was underground.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Commentator Mike


    Hypersonic may be used for its bunker bursting potential as that was an underground arsenal
     
    That is a fair point. While the Iskander ballistic missile is good for ground penetration, presumably, the Kinzhal is better.

    Your explanation is as likely as mine. There is no way to analyze the cases unless additional information becomes available.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @prime noticer

  16. German_reader says:
    @Yevardian
    I'm going to take a break from Unz for a month or two in the next couple days, and the internet in general. I've been spending too much time obsessively following this war, and since in the end I'm totally removed from it, it starts to feel like voyeurism. Trudging through the dishonesty, intense anger and propaganda on both sides isn't really rewarding either.

    Could anybody here who reads recommend some books (fiction, essays or history), also in Russian, Spanish or even Romanian? I'm pretty familiar with Russian and English authors, but I almost know nothing about Spanish literature (read Borges and Paz, didn't like either very much, actually I enjoyed reading Eduardo Galeano's leftist tracts better).

    I'm thinking to finally read one Hillgruber's main works, although it seems most of his output has never been translated, in general if someone (utu?) might recommend some 'powerful' accounts of Europe 1918-1945 (anything like e.g. Lothrop Stoddard's 'Into the Darkness'), that aren't wally-tier revisionist garbage, I'd be thankful.

    I've also been looking (admittedly not very hard) for a detailed general history of France, something broad that isn't also just a shallow survey. It feels like an absolutely overwhelming proportion of books in English (or Russian) are about the Revolution, its background, or Napoleon, it's actually not that easy to find a balanced history that doesn't treat all French history as a leadup or aftermath of those events.

    Also wondering if there's been any major books dealing with Israel, China (last thing I read was Fenby's 'Fall and Rise of a Great Power: 1850-2009, obviously a lot changed since then), Turkey (I've only read Zürcher's book on modern Turkey), Greece (Roderick Beaton has an excellent survey, but it ends in 2007) or Russia in the past 20-30 years that avoid being hyper-partisan, or at least attempt emotional distance and objectivity? I'm close to finishing a recent (and quite acid) account of Gorbachev's presidency, Vladislav Zubok's 'Collapse', which just came out last year. So a good detailed work on the Yeltsin years to the present I'm looking for.
    Probably now would also be a good time to read a modern history of Ukraine too, I read two recently but one was a brief summary and the other was just a partisan travel account of the country post-Maidan.

    Also maybe German_Reader (did you read Barnes work on Ammianus?) could recommend any particularly interesting papers or books on Antiquity? I finished Anson's work on Eumenes, 'A Greek Among Macedonians', recently that was absolutely excellent, I'd recommend for anyone who has an interest in that period.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Beckow, @Dacian Julien Soros, @Agathoklis, @Blinky Bill, @Dmitry, @Sasu, @AP

    I’m going to take a break from Unz for a month or two in the next couple days, and the internet in general.

    Probably a good idea, I should do the same, but don’t have the will power. There’s not really much point to talking about the day to day events of this idiotic war anyway, and while I lean more towards the Ukrainian side the extreme partisanship of many commenters for one side or the other is irritating. We’ll eventually see what political outcome it leads to (something none of us here has any influence on).
    I hope though you’ll be back eventually, I appreciate your comments.

    Also maybe German_Reader (did you read Barnes work on Ammianus?) could recommend any particularly interesting papers or books on Antiquity?

    No, haven’t read Barnes’ book about Ammianus yet. tbh I haven’t read Ammianus yet. I hope I’ll get around to it eventually. I’ve managed to read larger bits of Tacitus in the last two years (Histories 1-2, Annals 11, the Agricola and the Dialogus de oratoribus), but Ammianus’ ornate Latin is even more difficult, don’t know when I’ll manage to seriously engage with it.
    Can’t recommend you any academic books on ancient history, I don’t really follow the field, sorry. Maybe A. H. M. Jones’ classic about the later Roman empire, but I guess you already know that anyway.

  17. China should evacuate all fertile women from Macau and HK ASAP and turn them into retirement villages.

    • LOL: Yellowface Anon
  18. Putin conducted the war slowly so Karlin could collect more tears on this comment section. :triumph:

  19. @Yevardian
    I'm going to take a break from Unz for a month or two in the next couple days, and the internet in general. I've been spending too much time obsessively following this war, and since in the end I'm totally removed from it, it starts to feel like voyeurism. Trudging through the dishonesty, intense anger and propaganda on both sides isn't really rewarding either.

    Could anybody here who reads recommend some books (fiction, essays or history), also in Russian, Spanish or even Romanian? I'm pretty familiar with Russian and English authors, but I almost know nothing about Spanish literature (read Borges and Paz, didn't like either very much, actually I enjoyed reading Eduardo Galeano's leftist tracts better).

    I'm thinking to finally read one Hillgruber's main works, although it seems most of his output has never been translated, in general if someone (utu?) might recommend some 'powerful' accounts of Europe 1918-1945 (anything like e.g. Lothrop Stoddard's 'Into the Darkness'), that aren't wally-tier revisionist garbage, I'd be thankful.

    I've also been looking (admittedly not very hard) for a detailed general history of France, something broad that isn't also just a shallow survey. It feels like an absolutely overwhelming proportion of books in English (or Russian) are about the Revolution, its background, or Napoleon, it's actually not that easy to find a balanced history that doesn't treat all French history as a leadup or aftermath of those events.

    Also wondering if there's been any major books dealing with Israel, China (last thing I read was Fenby's 'Fall and Rise of a Great Power: 1850-2009, obviously a lot changed since then), Turkey (I've only read Zürcher's book on modern Turkey), Greece (Roderick Beaton has an excellent survey, but it ends in 2007) or Russia in the past 20-30 years that avoid being hyper-partisan, or at least attempt emotional distance and objectivity? I'm close to finishing a recent (and quite acid) account of Gorbachev's presidency, Vladislav Zubok's 'Collapse', which just came out last year. So a good detailed work on the Yeltsin years to the present I'm looking for.
    Probably now would also be a good time to read a modern history of Ukraine too, I read two recently but one was a brief summary and the other was just a partisan travel account of the country post-Maidan.

    Also maybe German_Reader (did you read Barnes work on Ammianus?) could recommend any particularly interesting papers or books on Antiquity? I finished Anson's work on Eumenes, 'A Greek Among Macedonians', recently that was absolutely excellent, I'd recommend for anyone who has an interest in that period.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Beckow, @Dacian Julien Soros, @Agathoklis, @Blinky Bill, @Dmitry, @Sasu, @AP

    …detailed general history of France

    Yeah, the focus on Napoleon and Revolution is tedious. There are books by Nancy Goldstone on Joan d’Arc and Catherine Medici, 15.-16.centuries. There is a narrative push – create a storyline and fit everything into it come hell or high water – but if you get over it, there are illuminating insights into France and the way power politics works.

    Leaving this forum is in my view unnecessary, it is one of the few places where different perspectives meet. This war is the most important event in a long time, it will impact everything. It will go on for months and following it can get tiresome. If Poland (as NATO) comes in as a retro reenactment of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact this could still get quite hot. Too hot for what is at stake. I hope you come back for that.

  20. All is going according to plan. The virus, the “vaccines”, stealing people’s money and government’s money. devaluing the petrodollar, open borders across the south of USA, food shortages, inflation soon to be hyper-inflation, chronic and acute homelessness, deep seated political corruption, election theft, cancel culture, rampant drug abuse, lawlessness, violence, dissidents in America, media lies, government lies, lies lies and more lies. This is the Great Reset in action. Anyone see this?

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @repugnant

    https://twitter.com/jmrphy/status/1504159321612947458

    Worth reposting into the new thread.

    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @repugnant

    The central banking system rothschilds might be kaput. That might be the underlying cause. That definitely wasn't planned. All the plans people are actually going berserk trying to stop it. So you're close. Except totally wrong.

    (I don't think anybody has a frign clue.)


    How did you go bankrupt?

    Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.
     
  21. @Sean
    The US is going to give Ukraine the tiny 'switchblade' drones, probably in huge numbers. These are dubious as a 'defensive' weapons, and are going to slaughter Russian soldiers in huge numbers. If Putin is forced to pull back out of Ukraine and Russia is humiliated then the winner will be surely China, not the West.

    Long term it is in China's interest to take some pain for supporting Russia now. Russia is never going to ally with the US against China in the future after this, and without Russia, China can not be contained. China will probably end up brokering an agreement and its prestige will be immense. The West declining in relative importance is the inevitable future, and defeating Putin fast forwards it.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @Brás Cubas

    The US is going to give Ukraine the tiny ‘switchblade’ drones, probably in huge numbers. These are dubious as a ‘defensive’ weapons, and are going to slaughter Russian soldiers in huge numbers.

    A weapon is only as good as its user. Russia has been hitting major supply depots in recent days since apparently the Ukrainians are not good at dispersing the arms they are getting and not good at preventing leaks where these arms are located either. The hypersonic missile fired yesterday hit an underground bunker with a gigantic cache of weaponry. So I’ll press X to doubt about these drones – or any other weapon given – being a “gamechanger”.

    • Replies: @prime noticer
    @Thulean Friend

    "Russia has been hitting major supply depots in recent days since apparently the Ukrainians are not good at dispersing the arms they are getting and not good at preventing leaks where these arms are located either."

    all coming in from the west border i assume. so RUS will have to secure that border, which it looks like RUS and BEL are about to do. which makes it more likely RUS will just take all of UKR. not necessarily, but they'll need to have the all the roads and railroads in and out secured. so why not at that point. or most UKR forces disabled, whichever comes first.

    RUS forces have most of them isolated now, so UKR units can't get resupplied, and it's not like there are thousands of troops in every city in the west who could defend those cities - they're all deployed to places which RUS has advanced on because that's where the battle is. it makes no sense for UKR to have thousands of guys just standing around doing nothing in cities in the west, so by definition, they aren't there. there are no reinforcements, there is no cavalry coming. which seems to be takeaway from Mariupol.

    i don't really see there being some years long guerilla conflict here. that's possible, but there's a low chance of that. US State Department is mostly not gonna get what it wants on that front.

    , @Sean
    @Thulean Friend

    The anti personnel switchblade is so light one soldier san carry several. It has been the the secret weapon of special forces for going after high value targets, but at present is not immediately available in numbers. There are are only going to be 100 of them. for now. If the Russians accept it as a defensive weapon not different to the Stingers or the Javelins then Russians will be killed at an unsustainable rate as the US churns them out. I think Russia is very well aware of the effectiveness of drones , indeed the use of Turkish drones in Donbass just a few months ago was maybe an important reason for Putin deciding on this war.

    Zelinsky has been filmed walking around using his mobile phone since this war started!
    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/03/19/15/55551721-10630625-Drones_used_in_the_field_are_able_to_use_the_newly_available_Sta-a-49_1647705158265.jpg



    What we have with the Russians in Ukraine is a WW2 artillery army that lacks enough ammunition for the big job of reducing Kiev. Around it they are going to be sitting ducks who are not really inflicting decisive damage for a while and defenceless against these things So Russia is going to have to up the ante and tell the US that if it supplies these drones in the huge numbers it is capable of then it will be regarded as a combatant

    Replies: @songbird

    , @AP
    @Thulean Friend

    Hypersonic missile turned out to be a hoax

    Replies: @Commentator Mike

  22. @Yellowface Anon
    https://twitter.com/surcomplicated/status/1505254058713620488

    Look at this idiot!

    Replies: @Thulean Friend

    It’s a remarkable cope. Pushing Russia and China closer together is definitely not in the US national interest (NATO and US are interchangable, since the non-US members of NATO are just pliant satraps).

    Even more hilarious is the meme that this would somehow aid in creating an anti-China balancing coalition in Asia. This conflict will create greater pressures for the US to commit to Europe, thereby reducing their capability to “pivot to Asia”. All the major powers in Asia are either friendly with Russia or neutral. Neither have been willing to join the sanctions regime. India is already buying oil at discounted prices.

    The news yesterday that Assad is now being welcomed in the Gulf capitals is yet further proof that the US imperial diktat are losing their power. Beyond this war, I think we will look back at it as an inflection point in the relative power balance of the US vis-a-vis everyone else. America will still be by far the most powerful country for the foreseeable future, but it won’t be omnipotent, as it was during the “unipolar moment” (1990-2020).

    • Agree: Barbarossa
  23. Wish we had more information about these companies that have “quit” Russia.

    I flirted with the idea that they were actually trying to minimize their losses by getting out early, before state-level crackdowns forced them to get out. But it seems as though some number of them are still paying rent and/or employees.

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    Pro-Russian Trumpists can add those companies to their boycott list like woke companies, and it seems strange it isn't happening as fast as counter-woke boycotts.

  24. 100% of Somalia’s wheat imports come from Russia and Ukraine.

    I hope that rice is their more common food, as I do not want any more Ilhan Omars.

  25. @Thulean Friend
    @Sean


    The US is going to give Ukraine the tiny ‘switchblade’ drones, probably in huge numbers. These are dubious as a ‘defensive’ weapons, and are going to slaughter Russian soldiers in huge numbers.
     
    A weapon is only as good as its user. Russia has been hitting major supply depots in recent days since apparently the Ukrainians are not good at dispersing the arms they are getting and not good at preventing leaks where these arms are located either. The hypersonic missile fired yesterday hit an underground bunker with a gigantic cache of weaponry. So I'll press X to doubt about these drones - or any other weapon given - being a "gamechanger".

    Replies: @prime noticer, @Sean, @AP

    “Russia has been hitting major supply depots in recent days since apparently the Ukrainians are not good at dispersing the arms they are getting and not good at preventing leaks where these arms are located either.”

    all coming in from the west border i assume. so RUS will have to secure that border, which it looks like RUS and BEL are about to do. which makes it more likely RUS will just take all of UKR. not necessarily, but they’ll need to have the all the roads and railroads in and out secured. so why not at that point. or most UKR forces disabled, whichever comes first.

    RUS forces have most of them isolated now, so UKR units can’t get resupplied, and it’s not like there are thousands of troops in every city in the west who could defend those cities – they’re all deployed to places which RUS has advanced on because that’s where the battle is. it makes no sense for UKR to have thousands of guys just standing around doing nothing in cities in the west, so by definition, they aren’t there. there are no reinforcements, there is no cavalry coming. which seems to be takeaway from Mariupol.

    i don’t really see there being some years long guerilla conflict here. that’s possible, but there’s a low chance of that. US State Department is mostly not gonna get what it wants on that front.

  26. The US (i.e. The West) policy on the Ukraine is typical duplicity. Not long ago they were telling us the greatest danger to the US was extreme right-wing radical groups. Now we have the hysterical US support for extreme right-wing radicals in Ukraine. Maybe we can work with the Vatican to import these people to the US before the Russians “re-educate” them. Where is Alan Dulles when you need him?

  27. @Thulean Friend
    @Sean


    The US is going to give Ukraine the tiny ‘switchblade’ drones, probably in huge numbers. These are dubious as a ‘defensive’ weapons, and are going to slaughter Russian soldiers in huge numbers.
     
    A weapon is only as good as its user. Russia has been hitting major supply depots in recent days since apparently the Ukrainians are not good at dispersing the arms they are getting and not good at preventing leaks where these arms are located either. The hypersonic missile fired yesterday hit an underground bunker with a gigantic cache of weaponry. So I'll press X to doubt about these drones - or any other weapon given - being a "gamechanger".

    Replies: @prime noticer, @Sean, @AP

    The anti personnel switchblade is so light one soldier san carry several. It has been the the secret weapon of special forces for going after high value targets, but at present is not immediately available in numbers. There are are only going to be 100 of them. for now. If the Russians accept it as a defensive weapon not different to the Stingers or the Javelins then Russians will be killed at an unsustainable rate as the US churns them out. I think Russia is very well aware of the effectiveness of drones , indeed the use of Turkish drones in Donbass just a few months ago was maybe an important reason for Putin deciding on this war.

    Zelinsky has been filmed walking around using his mobile phone since this war started!

    What we have with the Russians in Ukraine is a WW2 artillery army that lacks enough ammunition for the big job of reducing Kiev. Around it they are going to be sitting ducks who are not really inflicting decisive damage for a while and defenceless against these things So Russia is going to have to up the ante and tell the US that if it supplies these drones in the huge numbers it is capable of then it will be regarded as a combatant

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Sean

    Thought it was funny that getting starlink into the warzone was depicted like it was to allow civilians to use email and stay in contact with their loved ones.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @republic

  28. @Yevardian
    I'm going to take a break from Unz for a month or two in the next couple days, and the internet in general. I've been spending too much time obsessively following this war, and since in the end I'm totally removed from it, it starts to feel like voyeurism. Trudging through the dishonesty, intense anger and propaganda on both sides isn't really rewarding either.

    Could anybody here who reads recommend some books (fiction, essays or history), also in Russian, Spanish or even Romanian? I'm pretty familiar with Russian and English authors, but I almost know nothing about Spanish literature (read Borges and Paz, didn't like either very much, actually I enjoyed reading Eduardo Galeano's leftist tracts better).

    I'm thinking to finally read one Hillgruber's main works, although it seems most of his output has never been translated, in general if someone (utu?) might recommend some 'powerful' accounts of Europe 1918-1945 (anything like e.g. Lothrop Stoddard's 'Into the Darkness'), that aren't wally-tier revisionist garbage, I'd be thankful.

    I've also been looking (admittedly not very hard) for a detailed general history of France, something broad that isn't also just a shallow survey. It feels like an absolutely overwhelming proportion of books in English (or Russian) are about the Revolution, its background, or Napoleon, it's actually not that easy to find a balanced history that doesn't treat all French history as a leadup or aftermath of those events.

    Also wondering if there's been any major books dealing with Israel, China (last thing I read was Fenby's 'Fall and Rise of a Great Power: 1850-2009, obviously a lot changed since then), Turkey (I've only read Zürcher's book on modern Turkey), Greece (Roderick Beaton has an excellent survey, but it ends in 2007) or Russia in the past 20-30 years that avoid being hyper-partisan, or at least attempt emotional distance and objectivity? I'm close to finishing a recent (and quite acid) account of Gorbachev's presidency, Vladislav Zubok's 'Collapse', which just came out last year. So a good detailed work on the Yeltsin years to the present I'm looking for.
    Probably now would also be a good time to read a modern history of Ukraine too, I read two recently but one was a brief summary and the other was just a partisan travel account of the country post-Maidan.

    Also maybe German_Reader (did you read Barnes work on Ammianus?) could recommend any particularly interesting papers or books on Antiquity? I finished Anson's work on Eumenes, 'A Greek Among Macedonians', recently that was absolutely excellent, I'd recommend for anyone who has an interest in that period.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Beckow, @Dacian Julien Soros, @Agathoklis, @Blinky Bill, @Dmitry, @Sasu, @AP

    Can you read Romanian? I find current-year Romanian literature as formulaic as current-year world literature or current-year pop music. I think Marin Preda and Camil Petrescu were the best novel writers, but neither was translated to English AFAIK. Both are half-realistic writers, reflecting the Romanian life in the first half of the 20th century.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @Dacian Julien Soros


    Can you read Romanian? I find current-year Romanian literature as formulaic as current-year world literature or current-year pop music.
     
    Yes, although I've barely used it all in years. I'll just say I have close personal ties to the country. And yes, although I don't follow that closely, its expected, probably most recent authors I read were Sadoveanu and Urmuz, both pretty old.
    But at least until the mid 20th century Romania had a respectable number of strong writers for a country of its size.

    @Beckow

    Leaving this forum is in my view unnecessary, it is one of the few places where different perspectives meet. This war is the most important event in a long time, it will impact everything.
     

    It's more just a periodic break from internet/news I regularly take, when I start noticing it starts effecting output in real things. There's also been escalating crisis in Armenia (again), since Azerbaijan has been repeatedly violating the ceasefire recently, and blocking gas and imports (during a freezing winter) to the remnants of Artsakh in an attempt induce panic. Its also unclear how long Russian troops will remain to protect the corridor with this fucking Ukrainian war dragging.. I course, I don't expect average reader to take interest in Turkic bloodfeuds (small-country nationalisms injecting their grievances into every discussion), but I mention it as part of the post-Soviet context, a lot in the wider region is hinging on events in Ukraine.

    @Agathoklis

    Not really helpful, it was adequately written and seemed relatively non-partisan, you could at least point out what you found wrong with it (it was just a popular history for an educated Anglo layperson that knows little of the modern state, I don't know what you expect), or recommend something better.

    @BlinkyBill

    Neither here nor there, but apart from personal distaste, the things about Indian culture (their languages and visage aside) I find really repulsive is the pervasive dichotomy between self-abasing servility and churlish arrogance you get there as a result of the caste-system.
    And its all overlaid by this reverence deep feelings of racial inferiority, and a practical reverence for stasis and total complacence with conditions of filth and despair that forms a part of their traditional religions. I don't think its a coincidence that Western charlatans, degenerates and drug-addicts have taken inspiration from there since at least the late 19th century.

    @Dmitri


    Have you read Herodotus yet? I feel like I remember German Reader was going to advise us to read him.
     
    I think like a lot of people, I've examined certain passages extensively, or referred to it as an index for sourcing various topics, but I haven't sat and read through the whole work, no. I've always been more interested in the Hellenistic and Late-Roman/early-Byzantine periods, since they deal with very topical issues like demographic change/replacement, tensions in multiethnic societies, imperial overextension, and state collapse. So in general I'm more familiar with authors like Polybios, Diodoros or Prokopios, than Herodotos.

    Herodotos of course belongs to the 'Golden Age' of Greece, perhaps all antiquity, but also for that reason it has always disproportionate attention relative to all other periods. Greeks were artificially copying the 'Attic' dialect of Greek (although Herodotos wrote Ionian, he's a little earlier), using a huge array of long-obselete diacritics, even as the speech had evolved to Koine, then Byzantine forms, in some form, practically until the end of Katharevousa.


    Maybe Unamuno could be interesting? I never read his books though. Probably, Mikel has a view. This is the kind of book I would look for as a souvenir in Spain.
     
    Yeah, I remember reading a book of his on Christianity a while ago, but I didn't quite 'grab' me. He also seems to have held very 'cuck' like disparaging views on his own native language and culture, which turns me off. I mean, it can be justified, but to me the superiority of Basque society over Castillian conditions (as a whole) just seems very obvious.

    Btw, I started on a book on recent China that looks interesting, even if it's obviously from some hyperpartisan neocon hawk angle (and apparently, written by a pajeet), its not hiding that fact. So far, from the introduction, its clear the author disdains emotional language, looks to be a worthwhile read. Perhaps Our Benevolent Overlord himself would be interested in taking a look?

    https://www.amazon.com.au/Long-Game-Strategy-Displacement-American/dp/0197527914

    Replies: @sher singh, @Mikel, @Dmitry

  29. Destroyed and defeated Azovians in Mariupol still don’t give a fuck about that, lol

    Ukrainian BTR-4 Footage Mariupol from CombatFootage

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @sudden death

    Those self-playing Reddit videos are terrible, please put them under the MORE tag at least.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Yahya

  30. @songbird
    Wish we had more information about these companies that have "quit" Russia.

    I flirted with the idea that they were actually trying to minimize their losses by getting out early, before state-level crackdowns forced them to get out. But it seems as though some number of them are still paying rent and/or employees.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Pro-Russian Trumpists can add those companies to their boycott list like woke companies, and it seems strange it isn’t happening as fast as counter-woke boycotts.

  31. @repugnant
    All is going according to plan. The virus, the "vaccines", stealing people's money and government's money. devaluing the petrodollar, open borders across the south of USA, food shortages, inflation soon to be hyper-inflation, chronic and acute homelessness, deep seated political corruption, election theft, cancel culture, rampant drug abuse, lawlessness, violence, dissidents in America, media lies, government lies, lies lies and more lies. This is the Great Reset in action. Anyone see this?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Emil Nikola Richard

    Worth reposting into the new thread.

  32. @sudden death
    Destroyed and defeated Azovians in Mariupol still don't give a fuck about that, lol

    https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/tigir3/ukrainian_btr4_footage_mariupol/

    Replies: @German_reader

    Those self-playing Reddit videos are terrible, please put them under the MORE tag at least.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @German_reader

    Interesting, on my laptop they don't auto load/selfplay at all on opening, they are displayed as a static stills (like pics) initially, if I want to watch, then still have to push “play”.

    Replies: @German_reader

    , @Yahya
    @German_reader


    Those self-playing Reddit videos are terrible, please put them under the MORE tag at least.
     
    I thought you said you didn't want to be moderator?

    Replies: @German_reader

  33. @Sean
    The US is going to give Ukraine the tiny 'switchblade' drones, probably in huge numbers. These are dubious as a 'defensive' weapons, and are going to slaughter Russian soldiers in huge numbers. If Putin is forced to pull back out of Ukraine and Russia is humiliated then the winner will be surely China, not the West.

    Long term it is in China's interest to take some pain for supporting Russia now. Russia is never going to ally with the US against China in the future after this, and without Russia, China can not be contained. China will probably end up brokering an agreement and its prestige will be immense. The West declining in relative importance is the inevitable future, and defeating Putin fast forwards it.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @Brás Cubas

    I agree that’s a possible scenario, but things might take a different turn. Germany had no problem becoming a docile ally to the U.S. after the World War II humiliation.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Brás Cubas

    I agree. I also think that this might be the foundation of a truly successful Ukraine.

    The rebirth of a sense of commonality after winning a defensive war against a much more powerful foe is just as transformative as losing an aggressive war against a country you consider to be impossibly weak.

    Or as a dead character once observed "quem escapa do perigo vive a vida com outra intensidade."

    Replies: @Brás Cubas

    , @Sean
    @Brás Cubas


    Germany had no problem becoming a docile ally to the U.S. after the World War II humiliation.
     
    After World War Two, yes, but there is absolutely no chance of a WW2 Germany-style defeat of Russia for reasons that ought to be obvious. The most that could possibly happen is a WW1 type ending, and I would point out that after that Germany did ally with the Soviet Union, begining with military cooperation between Weimar and the USSR.
  34. Top 32 Russian copes that are absurd and cringe on the face of it:

    1. Russia has been sending in its weakest and poorest equipped troops to die and will start actually trying really hard very soon!

    2. Russia has taken 15% of Ukrainian territory. That is amazing!

    3. The Russian military is showing Christ-like restraint and Zelensky is a monster for not immediately surrendering to save Ukrainian civillian lives.

    4. The Russian economy is fine under sanctions. Russia makes “real” things, like oil, gas and does farming. This is where the future of economic growth is.

    5. The Chinese are our friends and will stick with us, as long as the cheap oil and gas lasts.

    6. The Ukrainian military will be encircled in an area the size of Southern England.

    7. Our professional army will win a war of attrition with the populace of the country if Ukraine. We lost almost 30 million people in WW2.

    8. 5 out of 20 Russian Generals deployed to Ukrainian have been killed in action, and that’s great because that is what true leadership as a General looks like.

    9. There will be no insurgency because if we win, because Europeans don’t do insurgencies.

    10. Our most intelligent people are fleeing our country, but we don’t need them. We have a hyper-modern economy of resource extraction and farming.

    11. The war is not our fault. Ukraine asked to join NATO because they are terrified of us invading and NATO did not say no, so of course we had to invade.

    12. Only Nazis in Ukraine want to be Ukrainian. Everyone else loves us.

    13. We can just sit outside Ukrainian cities and shell them until they agree to Russia ruling them.

    14. The Russian people almost unanimously support our special operation, where the only civillian casualties are from the Ukrainians bombing their own people behind their own lines.

    15. If Poland and other NATO countries continue to provide arms to Ukraine, Russia will invade them too.

    16. We have hypersonic missile.

    17. Any of the complete drivel written by Pepe Escobar, the Saker or other spiteful mutants.

    18. The Chechens or the Syrians will save us.

    19. Once we take Mariupol, we will have so many forces freed up. We definitely planned for the long war.

    20. We wanted these sanctions and it will allow us to have a really great standard of living and economy.

    21. But look at those few African countries like Congo that didn’t condemn us. The Congolese man on the mud track is our biggest supporter.

    22. “But Iraq.”

    23. “Hey, look at that US Admiral who dresses like a woman. A nation that tolerates such eccentricity won’t last another week.”

    24. “We have taken random farm land on our borders, while Zelensky has pranced for the international media to secure endless resupply. We know how to fight a real war with facts and hard things.”

    25. We can hold ground in cities with our artillery army.

    26. We will use \$100 million missiles to inderdict all of the infinite resupply Ukrain gets.

    27. We defeated the Ukrainian navy.

    28. Putin is such a great leader that he cannot even find a successor.”

    29. “Fake and gay” is not just internet slang for “Potemkin” and that is totally inappropriate to describe our superpower status.

    30. India supports us. On of their retired nonagenarian Generals said we were doing well and they are happy to buy our stuff at a discount.

    31. Our movement is based on third world solidarity and we will be a space-faring hyper-cosmic Empire.

    32. We haven’t started trying yet.

    • Agree: AP, Derer
    • Thanks: utu, Mr. Hack
    • LOL: Pixo
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Triteleia Laxa

    The Germans overran France and swept the British into the sea without much of a fight and treated the French politely during an occupation that only got dangerous for them immediately before the DDay landings. While it was a spectacular win 1940 it was essentially futile because the Germans had a date with destiny in the East. “The East is Career”, as Napoleon said. Attrition has its own value in reducing subject populations. A quick victory is often reversed in equally spectacular ways.

    The Russians have secured a coastline with an enormous amount of industrial assets and depopulated their opponent’s frontier.

    , @German_reader
    @Triteleia Laxa


    21. But look at those few African countries like Congo that didn’t condemn us. The Congolese man on the mud track is our biggest supporter.
     
    Democratic republic of Congo actually has condemned the invasion (Congo Brazzaville has abstained):
    https://www.statista.com/chart/26946/stance-on-ukraine-invasion/

    That being said, I do get the impression that there's substantial sympathy for Russia/antipathy to NATO in non-Western countries, the position taken by South Africa and India is certainly illuminating. Karlin is probably right that many see it through the lens of putting down the hated West (which makes me wish there actually was some real Western supremacy...South Africa could be punished by supporting a Boer secessionist movement against the white genocide there. Alas, only dreams).

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Thulean Friend, @Yahya

    , @Greasy William
    @Triteleia Laxa


    1. Russia has been sending in its weakest and poorest equipped troops to die and will start actually trying really hard very soon!
     
    I mean, there is definitely something to this. Russian military operations always start off horrendously and Russian military doctrine is, by design, extremely casualty intensive. It is obvious that most of casualties that Russia has suffered so far, Russia regards as being a cheap loss.

    RU has clearly adapted since the early days of the offensive. Putin has fired all the people (besides himself) who were responsible to flaws in the initial assault and the Russian generals are being active at the fronts in order to make sure the offensive progresses properly.


    2. Russia has taken 15% of Ukrainian territory. That is amazing!
     
    It's certainly respectable given the amount of time that has lapsed so far.

    3. The Russian military is showing Christ-like restraint and Zelensky is a monster for not immediately surrendering to save Ukrainian civillian lives.
     
    I'm not sure that Zelensky even can surrender. I assume his own guys would execute him if he tried. It really does appear like the Ukrainian people want to fight this invasion. That is their right, but it will necessarily result in a lot of dead Ukrainians. I really think both sides need to drop the whole "muh civilians" thing. What exactly do they think war is? Every side uses every advantage it can. If your cause is just then so are any means.

    4. The Russian economy is fine under sanctions. Russia makes “real” things, like oil, gas and does farming. This is where the future of economic growth is.
     
    The Russian economy will indeed adjust over the course of the next year, yes. Although I'm not certain that the US can hold out that long as Biden will need to lower food and energy prices to give himself any shot at re-election.

    6. The Ukrainian military will be encircled in an area the size of Southern England.
     
    There does appear to be a good chance of Russia cutting off all the roads into the so called cauldron, thereby denying the UA resupply and ultimately forcing them to abandon their heavy equipment and retreat to a new defensive line further west.

    11. The war is not our fault. Ukraine asked to join NATO because they are terrified of us invading and NATO did not say no, so of course we had to invade.
     
    Yeah, this one is pretty gross. Even still, US/NATO behavior towards Russia since the 90s has been unnecessarily provocative and ill advised. The US/EU need to accept that the world, for better or worse, is going to be more multipolar from now on.

    Once we take Mariupol, we will have so many forces freed up. We definitely planned for the long war.
     
    The Russians never properly plan their military operations. They come up with a half assed plan and then adjust after heavy losses. They have always fought this way. It's just how they are.

    23. “Hey, look at that US Admiral who dresses like a woman. A nation that tolerates such eccentricity won’t last another week.”
     
    The political situation in the US is very bad, approaching dire. It is very questionable that the US has the political will to maintain these sanctions long term. The US will be hit by a murderous recession in around 6 months and when that happens, a lot of the US political class will be looking for a way out of this mess.

    16. We have hypersonic missile.
     
    This one really is cringe. There is no greater sign of weakness than bragging about your wonder weapons.
    , @Sean
    @Triteleia Laxa

    1. The average (in the sense of vast majority) Russian soldier is not very good. I am not sure how many regular soldiers Ukraine has left. Russia generalship is incredibly careless of causalities that anyone else would consider prohibitive relative to what the Russians have available in manpower.
    2. They have very roughly got 10% of the territory and lost 10% of the men they went in with, but they have got a very strategic 10% for the loss of not terribly effective troops.
    3. Deaths in the war so far have been mainly of Russian soldiers.
    4. Not everyone wants Russia to be knocked out of the balance of power by economic sanction leaving the US in a dominant global position. Unbearable for Russia is going to make the West very uncomfortable.
    5. See 4. Also India . Couple of billion people hungry for what Russian can offer and now able to get a special low price.
    6. Encirclement is the Russian way of war.
    7.Underestimating the will of the Russians has already cost Ukraine plenty, with a long running war millions more of refugees are going to leave for the West and whatever they now say many will never return. Demographers were already saying that Ukraine was going to have too few people for it large territory, and might have to give part of the country away in a generation. Even before this war Ukrainians had identical rights of EU entry to British people: 90 days’ stay without a visa. The refugees are nice people getting a warm welcome in wealthy countries who will give them leave to remain . I think with the stuff they are now getting, the Ukrainians are going to maul and frustrate the Russians, but the phrase Pyrrhic victory comes to mind. The largest country in Europe ending this with an actual population of mid 30s million; are they going to invite in Turks?
    8. A quarter of Russian men are dead by 55, like the last two heads of the GRU.
    9. The Ukrainians are fighting well, but history shows the countries that resist with regular forces to the bitter end when invaded have had enough by the time there is a ceasefire
    10. A research fellow of Stanford University’s Hoover Institution summarized his years of research and multi tome publications: ” In a few words: there is no such thing as Soviet technology. Almost all — perhaps 90–95 percent — came directly or indirectly from the United States and its allies”. When Reagan Administration came in and cut off of the technology transfers, in a incident Professor Mearsheimer noted “Marshal Nikolai Ogarkov was dismissed as the chief of the Soviet general staff in the summer of 1984 for saying publicly that Soviet industry was falling badly behind American industry, which meant that Soviet weaponry would soon be inferior to American weaponry. Russia trying to be cutting edge wouldn't work, so they can afford to lose intelligent people without affecting their real strength. Also, those people are going to be liberals anyway so Putin is glad to see the back of them
    11.


    The following is the text of the U.S.-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership signed by U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Washington, D.C. on November 10, 2021.

    The United States and Ukraine:

    Reaffirm the importance of our relationship as friends and strategic partners, based both on our shared values and common interests, including a commitment to a Europe that is whole, free, democratic, and at peace. Reiterate that the strategic partnership existing between our two nations is critical for the security of Ukraine and Europe as a whole.
     

    Zelinsky seems to have counted on this and his being the first Ukrainian president to secure a meeting with a POTUS to
    deter the Russians. Russia had already suffered a defeat in 2008 with the future Nato announcement and again in 2021 when for the first time a Potus agreed to meet the Ukrainian president. It simply was not acceptable for Russia to have Ukraine as America's sidekick, and Russia made no secret of that.
    12.Millions of Russians live in Ukraine, especially the East of the country, and the political class in Kiev twice (2004 and 2014) overthrew by street demonstration a Russia friendly and democratically elected President from the Russian speaking community with strong support there who had got enough Ukrainian speakers to vote for him to win. That sounds like integral nationalism to me. Not German integral nationalism (AKA Nazism) to be sure, but a Ukrainian variety.
    13. Russia did not count on Ukraine changing the spelling of it' capital city making it impossible to find! It will take about a week or two to reduce the defended urban area of Kiev, starting at the outside and moving in to the centre. The howitzer ammunition is not there yet.
    14. Russian conscripts being hunted like hares by Ukrainians with advanced American technology is not going to endear Ukraine to Russians.
    15. Poland did not just give Ukraine the fighter planes, it tried to get them sent via a Nato base. Sounds like Poland is trying to start a wider war.
    32. America has not yet started to fight on Ukraine's side and they are not going to. Anyone could see that if and when it came down to it, Ukraine would be standing alone in a bloody battle of wills fought on Ukraine's territory not Russia's. It is a crime that Zelinsky became president.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Brás Cubas, @SimplePseudonymicHandle

  35. @Yevardian
    I'm going to take a break from Unz for a month or two in the next couple days, and the internet in general. I've been spending too much time obsessively following this war, and since in the end I'm totally removed from it, it starts to feel like voyeurism. Trudging through the dishonesty, intense anger and propaganda on both sides isn't really rewarding either.

    Could anybody here who reads recommend some books (fiction, essays or history), also in Russian, Spanish or even Romanian? I'm pretty familiar with Russian and English authors, but I almost know nothing about Spanish literature (read Borges and Paz, didn't like either very much, actually I enjoyed reading Eduardo Galeano's leftist tracts better).

    I'm thinking to finally read one Hillgruber's main works, although it seems most of his output has never been translated, in general if someone (utu?) might recommend some 'powerful' accounts of Europe 1918-1945 (anything like e.g. Lothrop Stoddard's 'Into the Darkness'), that aren't wally-tier revisionist garbage, I'd be thankful.

    I've also been looking (admittedly not very hard) for a detailed general history of France, something broad that isn't also just a shallow survey. It feels like an absolutely overwhelming proportion of books in English (or Russian) are about the Revolution, its background, or Napoleon, it's actually not that easy to find a balanced history that doesn't treat all French history as a leadup or aftermath of those events.

    Also wondering if there's been any major books dealing with Israel, China (last thing I read was Fenby's 'Fall and Rise of a Great Power: 1850-2009, obviously a lot changed since then), Turkey (I've only read Zürcher's book on modern Turkey), Greece (Roderick Beaton has an excellent survey, but it ends in 2007) or Russia in the past 20-30 years that avoid being hyper-partisan, or at least attempt emotional distance and objectivity? I'm close to finishing a recent (and quite acid) account of Gorbachev's presidency, Vladislav Zubok's 'Collapse', which just came out last year. So a good detailed work on the Yeltsin years to the present I'm looking for.
    Probably now would also be a good time to read a modern history of Ukraine too, I read two recently but one was a brief summary and the other was just a partisan travel account of the country post-Maidan.

    Also maybe German_Reader (did you read Barnes work on Ammianus?) could recommend any particularly interesting papers or books on Antiquity? I finished Anson's work on Eumenes, 'A Greek Among Macedonians', recently that was absolutely excellent, I'd recommend for anyone who has an interest in that period.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Beckow, @Dacian Julien Soros, @Agathoklis, @Blinky Bill, @Dmitry, @Sasu, @AP

    Beaton’s book was rubbish.

  36. Interesting to read Gilbert Doctorow’s musings after having to listen to the delusional rantings of Klitschko.

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/03/what-will-be-the-geographic-end-state-of-the-war-in-ukraine.html

  37. @repugnant
    All is going according to plan. The virus, the "vaccines", stealing people's money and government's money. devaluing the petrodollar, open borders across the south of USA, food shortages, inflation soon to be hyper-inflation, chronic and acute homelessness, deep seated political corruption, election theft, cancel culture, rampant drug abuse, lawlessness, violence, dissidents in America, media lies, government lies, lies lies and more lies. This is the Great Reset in action. Anyone see this?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Emil Nikola Richard

    The central banking system rothschilds might be kaput. That might be the underlying cause. That definitely wasn’t planned. All the plans people are actually going berserk trying to stop it. So you’re close. Except totally wrong.

    (I don’t think anybody has a frign clue.)

    How did you go bankrupt?

    Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.

  38. @German_reader
    @sudden death

    Those self-playing Reddit videos are terrible, please put them under the MORE tag at least.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Yahya

    Interesting, on my laptop they don’t auto load/selfplay at all on opening, they are displayed as a static stills (like pics) initially, if I want to watch, then still have to push “play”.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @sudden death

    Maybe I'm just too stupid to enable the proper settings. But iirc someone else complained about it on a recent thread, so it seems to be a not totally uncommon problem. On my system they start auto-playing as soon as you scroll over the comment they're embedded in.

    Replies: @songbird, @Yevardian

  39. @Brás Cubas
    @Sean

    I agree that's a possible scenario, but things might take a different turn. Germany had no problem becoming a docile ally to the U.S. after the World War II humiliation.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Sean

    I agree. I also think that this might be the foundation of a truly successful Ukraine.

    The rebirth of a sense of commonality after winning a defensive war against a much more powerful foe is just as transformative as losing an aggressive war against a country you consider to be impossibly weak.

    Or as a dead character once observed “quem escapa do perigo vive a vida com outra intensidade.”

    • Replies: @Brás Cubas
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Or as a dead character once observed “quem escapa do perigo vive a vida com outra intensidade.”
     
    Dead character? Would that be Tony Soprano?
  40. @sudden death
    @German_reader

    Interesting, on my laptop they don't auto load/selfplay at all on opening, they are displayed as a static stills (like pics) initially, if I want to watch, then still have to push “play”.

    Replies: @German_reader

    Maybe I’m just too stupid to enable the proper settings. But iirc someone else complained about it on a recent thread, so it seems to be a not totally uncommon problem. On my system they start auto-playing as soon as you scroll over the comment they’re embedded in.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @German_reader

    I agree. They can be quite terrible.

    Doesn't help that they are all warzone stuff, so you will get the jarring sounds of machine guns or explosions, as the thread chugs along and threatens to freeze up.

    , @Yevardian
    @German_reader

    I had the exact same issue last thread, it thought it was just due to big-thread-lag, but its now autoplaying everytime this page loads too. Another item to add to Reddit's endless crimes.

    Replies: @Ron Unz

  41. Vzglyad Russian website – Yandex translation edited
    (My note: Kim talked of what a good meal he had – I wonder how many people in Ukraine are having nice meals right now?)

    The Ukrainian governor boasted of a good mood after the death of the paratroopers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

    March 20, 2022, 00:57

    Text: Anton Nikitin
    The governor of the Mykolaiv (Nikolayev) region, Vitaly Kim, boasted of a good mood the day after the death of Ukrainian paratroopers as a result of a missile strike on the headquarters building of the 79th airborne brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Mykolaiv.

    We will note, according to the Ukrainian media, as a result of a missile strike on the headquarters of the 79th airborne brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Nikolaev, at least 40-50 servicemen were killed. In total, about 200 military personnel could be located in the destroyed premises. No civilian casualties were reported.

    Meanwhile, the governor of the Mykolaiv region Kim, famous for his daily broadcasts in social networks, told residents that he had a “joyful event today – borscht and roast … so I will sleep contented and well-fed.”

    A day earlier, the adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Oleksiy Arestovich, advised Ukrainians about two “versions of reality”, where one is “the government has surrendered Mariupol” and the second is “the government cares about Mariupol”, just believe in the second. And the fact is that the AFU will no longer try to break through to Mariupol, so, according to Arestovich, half of the country is already under the control of Russian troops.

  42. @Thulean Friend
    @Sean


    The US is going to give Ukraine the tiny ‘switchblade’ drones, probably in huge numbers. These are dubious as a ‘defensive’ weapons, and are going to slaughter Russian soldiers in huge numbers.
     
    A weapon is only as good as its user. Russia has been hitting major supply depots in recent days since apparently the Ukrainians are not good at dispersing the arms they are getting and not good at preventing leaks where these arms are located either. The hypersonic missile fired yesterday hit an underground bunker with a gigantic cache of weaponry. So I'll press X to doubt about these drones - or any other weapon given - being a "gamechanger".

    Replies: @prime noticer, @Sean, @AP

    Hypersonic missile turned out to be a hoax

    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
    @AP

    Supported by what reference? Not what experts claim.

    https://www.military.com/equipment/weapons/why-russias-hypersonic-missiles-cant-be-seen-radar.html

    Replies: @AP

  43. @Sean
    @Thulean Friend

    The anti personnel switchblade is so light one soldier san carry several. It has been the the secret weapon of special forces for going after high value targets, but at present is not immediately available in numbers. There are are only going to be 100 of them. for now. If the Russians accept it as a defensive weapon not different to the Stingers or the Javelins then Russians will be killed at an unsustainable rate as the US churns them out. I think Russia is very well aware of the effectiveness of drones , indeed the use of Turkish drones in Donbass just a few months ago was maybe an important reason for Putin deciding on this war.

    Zelinsky has been filmed walking around using his mobile phone since this war started!
    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/03/19/15/55551721-10630625-Drones_used_in_the_field_are_able_to_use_the_newly_available_Sta-a-49_1647705158265.jpg



    What we have with the Russians in Ukraine is a WW2 artillery army that lacks enough ammunition for the big job of reducing Kiev. Around it they are going to be sitting ducks who are not really inflicting decisive damage for a while and defenceless against these things So Russia is going to have to up the ante and tell the US that if it supplies these drones in the huge numbers it is capable of then it will be regarded as a combatant

    Replies: @songbird

    Thought it was funny that getting starlink into the warzone was depicted like it was to allow civilians to use email and stay in contact with their loved ones.

    • Agree: Pharmakon
    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @songbird

    Apparently Elon Musk has challenged Vladimir Putin to a fight or a duel or something. Anyway I read some of the Ukraine drones used the starlink.

    The stock market is betting big time on Musk but I am not.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/musks-combat-challenge-putin-prompts-mockery-russia-2022-03-16/

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @songbird

    , @republic
    @songbird

    So Starlink is being used to kill Russians, don't think that the Russians will soon forget that fact

  44. @German_reader
    @sudden death

    Maybe I'm just too stupid to enable the proper settings. But iirc someone else complained about it on a recent thread, so it seems to be a not totally uncommon problem. On my system they start auto-playing as soon as you scroll over the comment they're embedded in.

    Replies: @songbird, @Yevardian

    I agree. They can be quite terrible.

    Doesn’t help that they are all warzone stuff, so you will get the jarring sounds of machine guns or explosions, as the thread chugs along and threatens to freeze up.

  45. @Triteleia Laxa
    Top 32 Russian copes that are absurd and cringe on the face of it:

    1. Russia has been sending in its weakest and poorest equipped troops to die and will start actually trying really hard very soon!

    2. Russia has taken 15% of Ukrainian territory. That is amazing!

    3. The Russian military is showing Christ-like restraint and Zelensky is a monster for not immediately surrendering to save Ukrainian civillian lives.

    4. The Russian economy is fine under sanctions. Russia makes "real" things, like oil, gas and does farming. This is where the future of economic growth is.

    5. The Chinese are our friends and will stick with us, as long as the cheap oil and gas lasts.

    6. The Ukrainian military will be encircled in an area the size of Southern England.

    7. Our professional army will win a war of attrition with the populace of the country if Ukraine. We lost almost 30 million people in WW2.

    8. 5 out of 20 Russian Generals deployed to Ukrainian have been killed in action, and that's great because that is what true leadership as a General looks like.

    9. There will be no insurgency because if we win, because Europeans don't do insurgencies.

    10. Our most intelligent people are fleeing our country, but we don't need them. We have a hyper-modern economy of resource extraction and farming.

    11. The war is not our fault. Ukraine asked to join NATO because they are terrified of us invading and NATO did not say no, so of course we had to invade.

    12. Only Nazis in Ukraine want to be Ukrainian. Everyone else loves us.

    13. We can just sit outside Ukrainian cities and shell them until they agree to Russia ruling them.

    14. The Russian people almost unanimously support our special operation, where the only civillian casualties are from the Ukrainians bombing their own people behind their own lines.

    15. If Poland and other NATO countries continue to provide arms to Ukraine, Russia will invade them too.

    16. We have hypersonic missile.

    17. Any of the complete drivel written by Pepe Escobar, the Saker or other spiteful mutants.

    18. The Chechens or the Syrians will save us.

    19. Once we take Mariupol, we will have so many forces freed up. We definitely planned for the long war.

    20. We wanted these sanctions and it will allow us to have a really great standard of living and economy.

    21. But look at those few African countries like Congo that didn't condemn us. The Congolese man on the mud track is our biggest supporter.

    22. "But Iraq."

    23. "Hey, look at that US Admiral who dresses like a woman. A nation that tolerates such eccentricity won't last another week."

    24. "We have taken random farm land on our borders, while Zelensky has pranced for the international media to secure endless resupply. We know how to fight a real war with facts and hard things."

    25. We can hold ground in cities with our artillery army.

    26. We will use $100 million missiles to inderdict all of the infinite resupply Ukrain gets.

    27. We defeated the Ukrainian navy.

    28. Putin is such a great leader that he cannot even find a successor."

    29. "Fake and gay" is not just internet slang for "Potemkin" and that is totally inappropriate to describe our superpower status.

    30. India supports us. On of their retired nonagenarian Generals said we were doing well and they are happy to buy our stuff at a discount.

    31. Our movement is based on third world solidarity and we will be a space-faring hyper-cosmic Empire.

    32. We haven't started trying yet.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @German_reader, @Greasy William, @Sean

    The Germans overran France and swept the British into the sea without much of a fight and treated the French politely during an occupation that only got dangerous for them immediately before the DDay landings. While it was a spectacular win 1940 it was essentially futile because the Germans had a date with destiny in the East. “The East is Career”, as Napoleon said. Attrition has its own value in reducing subject populations. A quick victory is often reversed in equally spectacular ways.

    The Russians have secured a coastline with an enormous amount of industrial assets and depopulated their opponent’s frontier.

  46. German_reader says:
    @Triteleia Laxa
    Top 32 Russian copes that are absurd and cringe on the face of it:

    1. Russia has been sending in its weakest and poorest equipped troops to die and will start actually trying really hard very soon!

    2. Russia has taken 15% of Ukrainian territory. That is amazing!

    3. The Russian military is showing Christ-like restraint and Zelensky is a monster for not immediately surrendering to save Ukrainian civillian lives.

    4. The Russian economy is fine under sanctions. Russia makes "real" things, like oil, gas and does farming. This is where the future of economic growth is.

    5. The Chinese are our friends and will stick with us, as long as the cheap oil and gas lasts.

    6. The Ukrainian military will be encircled in an area the size of Southern England.

    7. Our professional army will win a war of attrition with the populace of the country if Ukraine. We lost almost 30 million people in WW2.

    8. 5 out of 20 Russian Generals deployed to Ukrainian have been killed in action, and that's great because that is what true leadership as a General looks like.

    9. There will be no insurgency because if we win, because Europeans don't do insurgencies.

    10. Our most intelligent people are fleeing our country, but we don't need them. We have a hyper-modern economy of resource extraction and farming.

    11. The war is not our fault. Ukraine asked to join NATO because they are terrified of us invading and NATO did not say no, so of course we had to invade.

    12. Only Nazis in Ukraine want to be Ukrainian. Everyone else loves us.

    13. We can just sit outside Ukrainian cities and shell them until they agree to Russia ruling them.

    14. The Russian people almost unanimously support our special operation, where the only civillian casualties are from the Ukrainians bombing their own people behind their own lines.

    15. If Poland and other NATO countries continue to provide arms to Ukraine, Russia will invade them too.

    16. We have hypersonic missile.

    17. Any of the complete drivel written by Pepe Escobar, the Saker or other spiteful mutants.

    18. The Chechens or the Syrians will save us.

    19. Once we take Mariupol, we will have so many forces freed up. We definitely planned for the long war.

    20. We wanted these sanctions and it will allow us to have a really great standard of living and economy.

    21. But look at those few African countries like Congo that didn't condemn us. The Congolese man on the mud track is our biggest supporter.

    22. "But Iraq."

    23. "Hey, look at that US Admiral who dresses like a woman. A nation that tolerates such eccentricity won't last another week."

    24. "We have taken random farm land on our borders, while Zelensky has pranced for the international media to secure endless resupply. We know how to fight a real war with facts and hard things."

    25. We can hold ground in cities with our artillery army.

    26. We will use $100 million missiles to inderdict all of the infinite resupply Ukrain gets.

    27. We defeated the Ukrainian navy.

    28. Putin is such a great leader that he cannot even find a successor."

    29. "Fake and gay" is not just internet slang for "Potemkin" and that is totally inappropriate to describe our superpower status.

    30. India supports us. On of their retired nonagenarian Generals said we were doing well and they are happy to buy our stuff at a discount.

    31. Our movement is based on third world solidarity and we will be a space-faring hyper-cosmic Empire.

    32. We haven't started trying yet.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @German_reader, @Greasy William, @Sean

    21. But look at those few African countries like Congo that didn’t condemn us. The Congolese man on the mud track is our biggest supporter.

    Democratic republic of Congo actually has condemned the invasion (Congo Brazzaville has abstained):
    https://www.statista.com/chart/26946/stance-on-ukraine-invasion/

    That being said, I do get the impression that there’s substantial sympathy for Russia/antipathy to NATO in non-Western countries, the position taken by South Africa and India is certainly illuminating. Karlin is probably right that many see it through the lens of putting down the hated West (which makes me wish there actually was some real Western supremacy…South Africa could be punished by supporting a Boer secessionist movement against the white genocide there. Alas, only dreams).

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @German_reader

    Third World populations quite clearly see the double standards of the West. Anyone like Putin willing to fight it out with Johnson or Biden has a lot of sympathy from that part of the globe.

    It’s not complicated. The passionate hatred for Putin is diaspora Jews, Anglo Elites and nationalist Slavs in Poland, Ukraine and probably genuine fear in the Baltic states. I’d be a worried Estonian right now.

    Germany just wants to metal bang at reasonable prices. The French are looking for a commercial angle.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Wielgus

    , @Thulean Friend
    @German_reader


    I get the impression there’s substantial sympathy for Russia/antipathy to NATO in non-Western countries, the position taken by South Africa and India is certainly illuminating. [...] many see it through the lens of putting down the hated West
     
    No, it's just pragmatism. Indians for e.g. don't see why a war in Europe should concern them. They need Russia for gas, oil and weapons. Why set aside national interest because whitoids are having internal squabbles? Doesn't seem to make much sense. Similar attitudes are prevalent in many different non-Western countries.

    Indians don't hate the West, many would like to move here. In India, most hatred is reserved for the Mughals and the various moslem rulers. British India is not remembered fondly, but most can compartamentalise and understand that you need to seperate history with the present. Such luxuries are not afforded to moslems living in India.

    It's not just a question of material selfishness either (e.g. being nice to be able to get in). An Indian film festival recently refused to select a film to send to the Oscars since it was deemed as "anti-British", even as it tried to deal with life under the Raj. There was no material gain to be had from that, if anything it'd make more sense to stoke white guilt.

    I think the kind of anti-white animus - which is real, and which needs to be acknowledged - that is encouraged in the Western media only has an effect on domestic minorities because many feel alienated to begin with. If you'd travel to most third world countries you'd be shocked how well people treat you.

    I'm only half-joking when I say that the last stand of white supremacy will be in Asia. Sometimes that can get ugly, such as anti-black racism since colorism is widespread.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Dream

    , @Yahya
    @German_reader


    That being said, I do get the impression that there’s substantial sympathy for Russia/antipathy to NATO in non-Western countries.... Karlin is probably right that many see it through the lens of putting down the hated West
     
    You're right there is substantial sympathy for Russia in non-Western countries. But your Western-centric view ("they're only supporting Russia to stick it to the West") speaks to an extreme parochialism and a lack of imagination. People have other reasons for supporting Russia. Razib Khan once mentioned on Twitter that Bengalis sympathize with Russia because they remember their support for Bangladesh during the 1971 Genocide.

    https://twitter.com/razibkhan/status/1501254010048815104?s=20&t=21igLJ4klqCUykYt-2Xj6g

    Palestinians have their reasons too:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cj3-JydZQ2I&ab_channel=CoreyGil-Shuster

    I'd say roughly 40% support Russia, 20% support Ukraine, and 40% neither. Reasons are all over the place. One person did mention "sticking it to America" (but not the West at large) as a reason for supporting Russia, but most gave other reasons such as "Ukraine government is Jewish" or "Ukraine didn't stand with Palestine when we needed help". Support for Ukraine was mostly on humanitarian basis ("don't want to see them suffer" or "they are the little guy"). The rest didn't support Ukraine nor Russia because neither support Palestine. Others said they would like to remain neutral on the issue.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XUETRzPJ5Y&ab_channel=CoreyGil-Shuster

    By contrast, Israelis seem more supportive of Ukraine. Most of them cited humanitarian reasons such as "the unjust differences of force" or "they don't deserve what's happening to them" (ironic). But there were two Lithuanian Jews who supported Russia because "Ukrainians killed us, while Russians saved Jews during WW2".

    Replies: @German_reader, @Blinky Bill

  47. @AP
    @Thulean Friend

    Hypersonic missile turned out to be a hoax

    Replies: @Commentator Mike

    • Replies: @AP
    @Commentator Mike

    From military aviation expert Tom Cooper:

    "The ‘super-precise attack with hypersonic Kinzhal missile’, with which the Keystone Cops were boasting two days ago, turned out to be a hoax. They did launch another attack with ballistic missiles on the Ivano-Frankivsk AB, but nothing by MiG-31s, nothing by Kinzhals, nothing on any kind of ‘underground storage depot’, and the video they have released is shown a strike on the storage hall of some agricultural facility in eastern Ukraine, during the first week of war…. As said, ‘Keystone Cops in Moscow"

    Also:

    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44840/we-have-questions-about-russias-claimed-kinzhal-hypersonic-missile-use-in-ukraine

    Replies: @songbird

  48. @German_reader
    @Triteleia Laxa


    21. But look at those few African countries like Congo that didn’t condemn us. The Congolese man on the mud track is our biggest supporter.
     
    Democratic republic of Congo actually has condemned the invasion (Congo Brazzaville has abstained):
    https://www.statista.com/chart/26946/stance-on-ukraine-invasion/

    That being said, I do get the impression that there's substantial sympathy for Russia/antipathy to NATO in non-Western countries, the position taken by South Africa and India is certainly illuminating. Karlin is probably right that many see it through the lens of putting down the hated West (which makes me wish there actually was some real Western supremacy...South Africa could be punished by supporting a Boer secessionist movement against the white genocide there. Alas, only dreams).

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Thulean Friend, @Yahya

    Third World populations quite clearly see the double standards of the West. Anyone like Putin willing to fight it out with Johnson or Biden has a lot of sympathy from that part of the globe.

    It’s not complicated. The passionate hatred for Putin is diaspora Jews, Anglo Elites and nationalist Slavs in Poland, Ukraine and probably genuine fear in the Baltic states. I’d be a worried Estonian right now.

    Germany just wants to metal bang at reasonable prices. The French are looking for a commercial angle.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Wokechoke


    Third World populations quite clearly see the double standards of the West. Anyone like Putin willing to fight it out with Johnson or Biden has a lot of sympathy from that part of the globe.
     
    Sure, the double standards exist and I've criticized them myself in the past (maybe I shouldn't have).
    But honestly, fuck those 3rd worlders. Western Elites are replacing their white core populations at a record rate through mass immigration, dissent against it is criminalized, and yet you still get that poc "anti-colonialist" whining as if it were still 1900. It's little more than a cover for hating the white man, when he's already on the way out.
    If it were up to me (which unfortunately it isn't), these people would get a taste of real "Western supremacy". South Africa's pro-Russian stance really shows what a disastrous mistake it was to throw the Afrikaners under the bus in a futile attempt to curry favour with useless black Africans.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @songbird, @sher singh

    , @Wielgus
    @Wokechoke

    Turks have a fear of Russia but do not necessarily think the West are good guys, and internalised the idea that if you think a threat is developing to you in a neighbouring country you bomb them and if necessary send the troops in. So Turkey has troops in both Syria and northern Iraq. As for Turkish Kurds, currently celebrating Newroz, they have learned not to place too much reliance on the West.

    Replies: @Wielgus

  49. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Brás Cubas

    I agree. I also think that this might be the foundation of a truly successful Ukraine.

    The rebirth of a sense of commonality after winning a defensive war against a much more powerful foe is just as transformative as losing an aggressive war against a country you consider to be impossibly weak.

    Or as a dead character once observed "quem escapa do perigo vive a vida com outra intensidade."

    Replies: @Brás Cubas

    Or as a dead character once observed “quem escapa do perigo vive a vida com outra intensidade.”

    Dead character? Would that be Tony Soprano?

  50. German_reader says:
    @Wokechoke
    @German_reader

    Third World populations quite clearly see the double standards of the West. Anyone like Putin willing to fight it out with Johnson or Biden has a lot of sympathy from that part of the globe.

    It’s not complicated. The passionate hatred for Putin is diaspora Jews, Anglo Elites and nationalist Slavs in Poland, Ukraine and probably genuine fear in the Baltic states. I’d be a worried Estonian right now.

    Germany just wants to metal bang at reasonable prices. The French are looking for a commercial angle.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Wielgus

    Third World populations quite clearly see the double standards of the West. Anyone like Putin willing to fight it out with Johnson or Biden has a lot of sympathy from that part of the globe.

    Sure, the double standards exist and I’ve criticized them myself in the past (maybe I shouldn’t have).
    But honestly, fuck those 3rd worlders. Western Elites are replacing their white core populations at a record rate through mass immigration, dissent against it is criminalized, and yet you still get that poc “anti-colonialist” whining as if it were still 1900. It’s little more than a cover for hating the white man, when he’s already on the way out.
    If it were up to me (which unfortunately it isn’t), these people would get a taste of real “Western supremacy”. South Africa’s pro-Russian stance really shows what a disastrous mistake it was to throw the Afrikaners under the bus in a futile attempt to curry favour with useless black Africans.

    • Agree: silviosilver
    • LOL: sher singh
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @German_reader

    Paris, London, Brussels, Birmingham, Rotterdam…are the third world now.

    That’s the issue. Kinshasa is in Brussels. The nogs don’t care if Putin wants to control some city or factory or port in opposition to Johnson Macron or Von Der Leyen.

    The Indians have been salivating over the spectacle of a British backed army getting steamed into by tanks, bombs and infantry.

    Replies: @Beckow

    , @songbird
    @German_reader


    South Africa’s pro-Russian stance really shows what a disastrous mistake it was to throw the Afrikaners under the bus in a futile attempt to curry favour with useless black Africans.
     
    Am no fan of the South African government, but seems entirely rational from their perspective to want a multipolar world, without necessarily attributing it to animus.

    IMO, throwing the Rhodesians and white South Africans under the bus was done for ideological reasons about race. The Cold War was just a justification. I'm not saying it was the case exactly, but I believe it would be truer to say that it was done to please American blacks than African ones.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @German_reader

    , @sher singh
    @German_reader

    Listen you whiny POS how dare you have a self-preservation instinct when you support niggers & faggots?

  51. @German_reader
    @Wokechoke


    Third World populations quite clearly see the double standards of the West. Anyone like Putin willing to fight it out with Johnson or Biden has a lot of sympathy from that part of the globe.
     
    Sure, the double standards exist and I've criticized them myself in the past (maybe I shouldn't have).
    But honestly, fuck those 3rd worlders. Western Elites are replacing their white core populations at a record rate through mass immigration, dissent against it is criminalized, and yet you still get that poc "anti-colonialist" whining as if it were still 1900. It's little more than a cover for hating the white man, when he's already on the way out.
    If it were up to me (which unfortunately it isn't), these people would get a taste of real "Western supremacy". South Africa's pro-Russian stance really shows what a disastrous mistake it was to throw the Afrikaners under the bus in a futile attempt to curry favour with useless black Africans.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @songbird, @sher singh

    Paris, London, Brussels, Birmingham, Rotterdam…are the third world now.

    That’s the issue. Kinshasa is in Brussels. The nogs don’t care if Putin wants to control some city or factory or port in opposition to Johnson Macron or Von Der Leyen.

    The Indians have been salivating over the spectacle of a British backed army getting steamed into by tanks, bombs and infantry.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Wokechoke


    ...Paris, London, Brussels, Birmingham, Rotterdam…are the third world now.
     
    Liberals love it. Combing first and third worlds creates a techie dirt with exotic cuisines, menacing streets, polite constrained talk...what's not to like? Liberals are dead-enders, their biological existence ends with them, there is no future, nothing to preserve. It is nihilism.

    Russia has just embarked on separation from it, let's see how it works out. They have resources and people, but the yearning to escape, for ease, it will be there. If not today, then soon.

    People talk about a plan or a reset. I don't think there is one, those are the usual verbalisms as things change. The West would like to keep everything as is: easy money, compradors, pliant natives at home, no responsibility, no consequences. Russia as a civilization miscalculated 30 years ago. It took them a while to come back, but now they are the ones with the initiative. The switch happened around 2014-15: until then it was all Western attacks all the time. Since then Russia&Co. have the initiative - Crimea and Syria were the most visible.

    The West has no choice, they have to go all the way - this is for all the marbles. If they falter it will be a slow rout. Russia seems reluctant and as always takes a long time to get going. Neither side can destroy the other, they will instead destroy what is in between. (Why did Ukies volunteer for this I will never understand.)

  52. @Yevardian
    I'm going to take a break from Unz for a month or two in the next couple days, and the internet in general. I've been spending too much time obsessively following this war, and since in the end I'm totally removed from it, it starts to feel like voyeurism. Trudging through the dishonesty, intense anger and propaganda on both sides isn't really rewarding either.

    Could anybody here who reads recommend some books (fiction, essays or history), also in Russian, Spanish or even Romanian? I'm pretty familiar with Russian and English authors, but I almost know nothing about Spanish literature (read Borges and Paz, didn't like either very much, actually I enjoyed reading Eduardo Galeano's leftist tracts better).

    I'm thinking to finally read one Hillgruber's main works, although it seems most of his output has never been translated, in general if someone (utu?) might recommend some 'powerful' accounts of Europe 1918-1945 (anything like e.g. Lothrop Stoddard's 'Into the Darkness'), that aren't wally-tier revisionist garbage, I'd be thankful.

    I've also been looking (admittedly not very hard) for a detailed general history of France, something broad that isn't also just a shallow survey. It feels like an absolutely overwhelming proportion of books in English (or Russian) are about the Revolution, its background, or Napoleon, it's actually not that easy to find a balanced history that doesn't treat all French history as a leadup or aftermath of those events.

    Also wondering if there's been any major books dealing with Israel, China (last thing I read was Fenby's 'Fall and Rise of a Great Power: 1850-2009, obviously a lot changed since then), Turkey (I've only read Zürcher's book on modern Turkey), Greece (Roderick Beaton has an excellent survey, but it ends in 2007) or Russia in the past 20-30 years that avoid being hyper-partisan, or at least attempt emotional distance and objectivity? I'm close to finishing a recent (and quite acid) account of Gorbachev's presidency, Vladislav Zubok's 'Collapse', which just came out last year. So a good detailed work on the Yeltsin years to the present I'm looking for.
    Probably now would also be a good time to read a modern history of Ukraine too, I read two recently but one was a brief summary and the other was just a partisan travel account of the country post-Maidan.

    Also maybe German_Reader (did you read Barnes work on Ammianus?) could recommend any particularly interesting papers or books on Antiquity? I finished Anson's work on Eumenes, 'A Greek Among Macedonians', recently that was absolutely excellent, I'd recommend for anyone who has an interest in that period.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Beckow, @Dacian Julien Soros, @Agathoklis, @Blinky Bill, @Dmitry, @Sasu, @AP

    Could anybody here who reads recommend some books (fiction, essays or history).


    [MORE]

    I’m sorry, I couldn’t help myself.

    • LOL: Yahya, Pharmakon
  53. A123 says: • Website
    @Commentator Mike
    @A123

    Hypersonic may be used for its bunker bursting potential as that was an underground arsenal. The explosion didn't look like much on the surface but may be its because most of it was underground.

    Replies: @A123

    Hypersonic may be used for its bunker bursting potential as that was an underground arsenal

    That is a fair point. While the Iskander ballistic missile is good for ground penetration, presumably, the Kinzhal is better.

    Your explanation is as likely as mine. There is no way to analyze the cases unless additional information becomes available.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @prime noticer
    @A123

    "Your explanation is as likely as mine. There is no way to analyze the cases unless additional information becomes available."

    we already know what the reason is. the US carrier running 24 hour a day missions in the Mediterranean.

    it's not for bunker busting. it's not because their supply of other missiles is running low.

    it's because USS Harry S. Truman is in Ionian Sea doing dozens of flights a day. Russia is telling the US that we can sink that carrier, and all your carriers, any time we want, and there's nothing you can do to stop it. so let's keep your surface fleet out of this, thanks.

    the pentagon is just wasting tax payer money while some admiral gets a boner flying 'deterrent' missions all day.

  54. @German_reader
    @Wokechoke


    Third World populations quite clearly see the double standards of the West. Anyone like Putin willing to fight it out with Johnson or Biden has a lot of sympathy from that part of the globe.
     
    Sure, the double standards exist and I've criticized them myself in the past (maybe I shouldn't have).
    But honestly, fuck those 3rd worlders. Western Elites are replacing their white core populations at a record rate through mass immigration, dissent against it is criminalized, and yet you still get that poc "anti-colonialist" whining as if it were still 1900. It's little more than a cover for hating the white man, when he's already on the way out.
    If it were up to me (which unfortunately it isn't), these people would get a taste of real "Western supremacy". South Africa's pro-Russian stance really shows what a disastrous mistake it was to throw the Afrikaners under the bus in a futile attempt to curry favour with useless black Africans.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @songbird, @sher singh

    South Africa’s pro-Russian stance really shows what a disastrous mistake it was to throw the Afrikaners under the bus in a futile attempt to curry favour with useless black Africans.

    Am no fan of the South African government, but seems entirely rational from their perspective to want a multipolar world, without necessarily attributing it to animus.

    IMO, throwing the Rhodesians and white South Africans under the bus was done for ideological reasons about race. The Cold War was just a justification. I’m not saying it was the case exactly, but I believe it would be truer to say that it was done to please American blacks than African ones.

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @songbird

    https://youtu.be/rkcbODygOV8

    , @German_reader
    @songbird


    Am no fan of the South African government, but seems entirely rational from their perspective to want a multipolar world, without necessarily attributing it to animus.
     
    Sure, but they're definitely no less hypocrites than Western elites. They like to declare their solidarity with Palestinians and other victims of Western imperialism, but obviously don't care about Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which is definitely one of the more egregious breaches of international law in recent decades.

    Replies: @Beckow, @songbird

  55. AP says:
    @Commentator Mike
    @AP

    Supported by what reference? Not what experts claim.

    https://www.military.com/equipment/weapons/why-russias-hypersonic-missiles-cant-be-seen-radar.html

    Replies: @AP

    From military aviation expert Tom Cooper:

    “The ‘super-precise attack with hypersonic Kinzhal missile’, with which the Keystone Cops were boasting two days ago, turned out to be a hoax. They did launch another attack with ballistic missiles on the Ivano-Frankivsk AB, but nothing by MiG-31s, nothing by Kinzhals, nothing on any kind of ‘underground storage depot’, and the video they have released is shown a strike on the storage hall of some agricultural facility in eastern Ukraine, during the first week of war…. As said, ‘Keystone Cops in Moscow”

    Also:

    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44840/we-have-questions-about-russias-claimed-kinzhal-hypersonic-missile-use-in-ukraine

    • Replies: @songbird
    @AP

    The video I saw seemed like it was too slow to be hypersonic.

    Could it slow down as it hits? I don't know.

  56. Names with a variegated origin should be prefixed so that they become honest disclosures of ethnicity.

    Irish “Kellers” should become “O’Kellers” or “MacKellers.”

    German “Kellers” should become “von Kellers” or “Kellersohns.”

    Jewish “Kellers” should become… “JayKellers” …or someone else can come up with something better.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @songbird

    OT

    As a fellow Celt, I thought you might appreciate the satire I wrote for St. Patrick's day.

    https://wellsvillesun.com/blog/2022/03/19/the-root-of-offense/

    I originally wrote it a few years ago, but I'm also putting my pieces in some other local papers so I re-ran it. Strangely enough, it seems less satirical all the time!

    Replies: @AaronB, @Emil Nikola Richard, @songbird

  57. @AP
    @Commentator Mike

    From military aviation expert Tom Cooper:

    "The ‘super-precise attack with hypersonic Kinzhal missile’, with which the Keystone Cops were boasting two days ago, turned out to be a hoax. They did launch another attack with ballistic missiles on the Ivano-Frankivsk AB, but nothing by MiG-31s, nothing by Kinzhals, nothing on any kind of ‘underground storage depot’, and the video they have released is shown a strike on the storage hall of some agricultural facility in eastern Ukraine, during the first week of war…. As said, ‘Keystone Cops in Moscow"

    Also:

    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44840/we-have-questions-about-russias-claimed-kinzhal-hypersonic-missile-use-in-ukraine

    Replies: @songbird

    The video I saw seemed like it was too slow to be hypersonic.

    Could it slow down as it hits? I don’t know.

  58. @songbird
    @German_reader


    South Africa’s pro-Russian stance really shows what a disastrous mistake it was to throw the Afrikaners under the bus in a futile attempt to curry favour with useless black Africans.
     
    Am no fan of the South African government, but seems entirely rational from their perspective to want a multipolar world, without necessarily attributing it to animus.

    IMO, throwing the Rhodesians and white South Africans under the bus was done for ideological reasons about race. The Cold War was just a justification. I'm not saying it was the case exactly, but I believe it would be truer to say that it was done to please American blacks than African ones.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @German_reader

    • Thanks: songbird
  59. @songbird
    @Sean

    Thought it was funny that getting starlink into the warzone was depicted like it was to allow civilians to use email and stay in contact with their loved ones.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @republic

    Apparently Elon Musk has challenged Vladimir Putin to a fight or a duel or something. Anyway I read some of the Ukraine drones used the starlink.

    The stock market is betting big time on Musk but I am not.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/musks-combat-challenge-putin-prompts-mockery-russia-2022-03-16/

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    Maybe Elon ought to fly into Mariupol and sit atop the Azovstal slag heap and do Judo with Putin.

    Lol. Would pay to watch that.

    Instead the Russians will capture or kill tens of thousands of the Ukrainian garrison there. And then move on to the next city to demolish.

    , @songbird
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    I saw that. Pretty clownish.

    But maybe I would be the same if I were such a big celebrity, with my own cult?

  60. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @songbird

    Apparently Elon Musk has challenged Vladimir Putin to a fight or a duel or something. Anyway I read some of the Ukraine drones used the starlink.

    The stock market is betting big time on Musk but I am not.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/musks-combat-challenge-putin-prompts-mockery-russia-2022-03-16/

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @songbird

    Maybe Elon ought to fly into Mariupol and sit atop the Azovstal slag heap and do Judo with Putin.

    Lol. Would pay to watch that.

    Instead the Russians will capture or kill tens of thousands of the Ukrainian garrison there. And then move on to the next city to demolish.

  61. Do you think the several Brigadiers in the Ukrainian military garrison of Mariupol will a) die with their boys 3) escape miraculously i) surrender \$) win

  62. Looks like Chechen performance is poor:

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @AP

    They’ve not been Saran wrapping anyone to lampposts, nor have they pulled their pants down to whip them with knouts, like the Ukrainian Police have been doing.

    Most of the Russophones will be released when they see a Chechen in Mariupol after what seen of the police methods by the Zelenskyyites.

    Replies: @AP

    , @Beckow
    @AP

    You are caught up in the minutia. Chechens are a net plus for the Russian side. In 2000-2005 'experts' predicted that Chechnia will never be subdued, a permanent bloody conflict, etc... What happened? These expert predictions are self-serving bs and as always the Western media is chock-full of them. Don't buy it, think for yourself.

    You took a 40-60 guess that Kiev will win. It depends on how we define a win: if there is no NATO in Ukraine, Donbass separates, and Russia controls the Black See coast - who won? Paraphrasing Pyrrha after he "beat" the Romans: "one more win and there will be no Ukraine."

    You boast that the Ukie army has not collapsed. First, it is early, one month into it, most wars are 3-6 months affairs or longer. Disciplined armies don't collapse, soldiers have lack of agency and know less than we do: it is dangerous to surrender and most fighting is sporadic, why risk anything? They should stay alive, they are dying for nothing, for a piece of paper and others' deluded propaganda. Nobody will look back in pride at these pointless sacrifices. Why die in Donbass, are they going to move there after the war? They care so much for what language is used there? To die for a principle that NATO be free to in theory place missiles there at some point in the future - this is madness, literally one of the dumbest wars in history.

    You are wrong about the supersonics, it happened and it can happen again. Like a Don Quichotte stuck with an obsessive idea fixee you double down on hope. Hope is the emotion we experience when we are losing. Maybe you are waiting for the Polish (NATO) cavalry to reverse Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and march into Galicia. It could happen, but then what? It would put a stake in Ukraine as a country or trigger a miscalculation and we all perish. Why is it so hard to convince people to just live. Don't do the dirty work for others, they don't care that much for you.

    Replies: @AP

    , @Commentator Mike
    @AP

    I got this


    Hmm... this page doesn’t exist. Try searching for something else.
     
    when I went to your twitter link.
  63. @Wokechoke
    @German_reader

    Paris, London, Brussels, Birmingham, Rotterdam…are the third world now.

    That’s the issue. Kinshasa is in Brussels. The nogs don’t care if Putin wants to control some city or factory or port in opposition to Johnson Macron or Von Der Leyen.

    The Indians have been salivating over the spectacle of a British backed army getting steamed into by tanks, bombs and infantry.

    Replies: @Beckow

    …Paris, London, Brussels, Birmingham, Rotterdam…are the third world now.

    Liberals love it. Combing first and third worlds creates a techie dirt with exotic cuisines, menacing streets, polite constrained talk…what’s not to like? Liberals are dead-enders, their biological existence ends with them, there is no future, nothing to preserve. It is nihilism.

    Russia has just embarked on separation from it, let’s see how it works out. They have resources and people, but the yearning to escape, for ease, it will be there. If not today, then soon.

    People talk about a plan or a reset. I don’t think there is one, those are the usual verbalisms as things change. The West would like to keep everything as is: easy money, compradors, pliant natives at home, no responsibility, no consequences. Russia as a civilization miscalculated 30 years ago. It took them a while to come back, but now they are the ones with the initiative. The switch happened around 2014-15: until then it was all Western attacks all the time. Since then Russia&Co. have the initiative – Crimea and Syria were the most visible.

    The West has no choice, they have to go all the way – this is for all the marbles. If they falter it will be a slow rout. Russia seems reluctant and as always takes a long time to get going. Neither side can destroy the other, they will instead destroy what is in between. (Why did Ukies volunteer for this I will never understand.)

  64. @AP
    Looks like Chechen performance is poor:




    https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1505574681163689985?s=21

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Beckow, @Commentator Mike

    They’ve not been Saran wrapping anyone to lampposts, nor have they pulled their pants down to whip them with knouts, like the Ukrainian Police have been doing.

    Most of the Russophones will be released when they see a Chechen in Mariupol after what seen of the police methods by the Zelenskyyites.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Wokechoke


    They’ve not been Saran wrapping anyone to lampposts, nor have they pulled their pants down to whip them with knouts, like the Ukrainian Police have been doing.
     
    Traditionally, in time so war people who were caught looting were shot. This is more humane. |I don't think police are doing that though. I suspect that because it is a war the police are too busy to deal with such petty crimes, so vigilantes do this.

    Most of the Russophones will be released when they see a Chechen in Mariupol after what seen of the police methods by the Zelenskyyites
     
    Why do you imply that Russophones are petty thieves and looters, who have to fear being tied to a pole? What do you have against Russophones?
  65. @songbird
    @Sean

    Thought it was funny that getting starlink into the warzone was depicted like it was to allow civilians to use email and stay in contact with their loved ones.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @republic

    So Starlink is being used to kill Russians, don’t think that the Russians will soon forget that fact

  66. @AP
    Looks like Chechen performance is poor:




    https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1505574681163689985?s=21

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Beckow, @Commentator Mike

    You are caught up in the minutia. Chechens are a net plus for the Russian side. In 2000-2005 ‘experts‘ predicted that Chechnia will never be subdued, a permanent bloody conflict, etc… What happened? These expert predictions are self-serving bs and as always the Western media is chock-full of them. Don’t buy it, think for yourself.

    You took a 40-60 guess that Kiev will win. It depends on how we define a win: if there is no NATO in Ukraine, Donbass separates, and Russia controls the Black See coast – who won? Paraphrasing Pyrrha after he “beat” the Romans: “one more win and there will be no Ukraine.”

    You boast that the Ukie army has not collapsed. First, it is early, one month into it, most wars are 3-6 months affairs or longer. Disciplined armies don’t collapse, soldiers have lack of agency and know less than we do: it is dangerous to surrender and most fighting is sporadic, why risk anything? They should stay alive, they are dying for nothing, for a piece of paper and others’ deluded propaganda. Nobody will look back in pride at these pointless sacrifices. Why die in Donbass, are they going to move there after the war? They care so much for what language is used there? To die for a principle that NATO be free to in theory place missiles there at some point in the future – this is madness, literally one of the dumbest wars in history.

    You are wrong about the supersonics, it happened and it can happen again. Like a Don Quichotte stuck with an obsessive idea fixee you double down on hope. Hope is the emotion we experience when we are losing. Maybe you are waiting for the Polish (NATO) cavalry to reverse Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and march into Galicia. It could happen, but then what? It would put a stake in Ukraine as a country or trigger a miscalculation and we all perish. Why is it so hard to convince people to just live. Don’t do the dirty work for others, they don’t care that much for you.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Beckow


    You took a 40-60 guess that Kiev will win. It depends on how we define a win: if there is no NATO in Ukraine, Donbass separates, and Russia controls the Black See coast – who won?
     
    I was quite clear in saying that a Ukrainian win would mean that Russia gives up, is forced to leave because the losses become unsustainable and gets much less than what it wants (no more than status quo ante bellum plus perhaps a face saving NATO denial). Ukraine still gets EU integration, militarization, and gets rebuilt with Russian reparation money (confiscated assets?). War has brought Ukraine together and has thoroughly de-Russified it in loyalty and identity.

    I'd guess 40% chance of this happening.

    60% chance of one of various types of losses, from mild (further territory loss, no NATO but EU integration okay) to worse (all of Putin's prewar conditions) to catastrophic (full occupation, either as annexation or under puppet regime - practically no difference between the two).

    You boast that the Ukie army has not collapsed. First, it is early, one month into it, most wars are 3-6 months affairs or longer.
     
    Karlin gave a 90% chance of collapse within one week, 40% within 2 days. Apparently Putin's leadership tea assumed the same. I don't recall if you gave specific timeline but you implied something similar.

    France fell to Germany in 6 weeks. Poland fell to Germany in 5 weeks. Iraq fell to the USA in 5 weeks.

    In 3 days it will have been 4 weeks. And Russia has already slowed down; it's been stopped in the north and east and has made small gains in the south. I don't recall if either Germany or the USA slowed down in their invasions, I suspect not. Russia has already wasted much of its elite paratrooper and spetznaz units, too, so it won't be getting easier for them.

    Nobody will look back in pride at these pointless sacrifices.
     
    Nonsense, people tend to celebrate their brave fighters, even and often especially in lost battles. Remember the Alamo? The Serbian Field of he Blackbirds? Failed Warsaw Uprising? Brest Fortress? If, as is sadly likely, Mariupol falls it might fall into that category.

    Replies: @Greasy William, @Beckow

  67. @Triteleia Laxa
    Top 32 Russian copes that are absurd and cringe on the face of it:

    1. Russia has been sending in its weakest and poorest equipped troops to die and will start actually trying really hard very soon!

    2. Russia has taken 15% of Ukrainian territory. That is amazing!

    3. The Russian military is showing Christ-like restraint and Zelensky is a monster for not immediately surrendering to save Ukrainian civillian lives.

    4. The Russian economy is fine under sanctions. Russia makes "real" things, like oil, gas and does farming. This is where the future of economic growth is.

    5. The Chinese are our friends and will stick with us, as long as the cheap oil and gas lasts.

    6. The Ukrainian military will be encircled in an area the size of Southern England.

    7. Our professional army will win a war of attrition with the populace of the country if Ukraine. We lost almost 30 million people in WW2.

    8. 5 out of 20 Russian Generals deployed to Ukrainian have been killed in action, and that's great because that is what true leadership as a General looks like.

    9. There will be no insurgency because if we win, because Europeans don't do insurgencies.

    10. Our most intelligent people are fleeing our country, but we don't need them. We have a hyper-modern economy of resource extraction and farming.

    11. The war is not our fault. Ukraine asked to join NATO because they are terrified of us invading and NATO did not say no, so of course we had to invade.

    12. Only Nazis in Ukraine want to be Ukrainian. Everyone else loves us.

    13. We can just sit outside Ukrainian cities and shell them until they agree to Russia ruling them.

    14. The Russian people almost unanimously support our special operation, where the only civillian casualties are from the Ukrainians bombing their own people behind their own lines.

    15. If Poland and other NATO countries continue to provide arms to Ukraine, Russia will invade them too.

    16. We have hypersonic missile.

    17. Any of the complete drivel written by Pepe Escobar, the Saker or other spiteful mutants.

    18. The Chechens or the Syrians will save us.

    19. Once we take Mariupol, we will have so many forces freed up. We definitely planned for the long war.

    20. We wanted these sanctions and it will allow us to have a really great standard of living and economy.

    21. But look at those few African countries like Congo that didn't condemn us. The Congolese man on the mud track is our biggest supporter.

    22. "But Iraq."

    23. "Hey, look at that US Admiral who dresses like a woman. A nation that tolerates such eccentricity won't last another week."

    24. "We have taken random farm land on our borders, while Zelensky has pranced for the international media to secure endless resupply. We know how to fight a real war with facts and hard things."

    25. We can hold ground in cities with our artillery army.

    26. We will use $100 million missiles to inderdict all of the infinite resupply Ukrain gets.

    27. We defeated the Ukrainian navy.

    28. Putin is such a great leader that he cannot even find a successor."

    29. "Fake and gay" is not just internet slang for "Potemkin" and that is totally inappropriate to describe our superpower status.

    30. India supports us. On of their retired nonagenarian Generals said we were doing well and they are happy to buy our stuff at a discount.

    31. Our movement is based on third world solidarity and we will be a space-faring hyper-cosmic Empire.

    32. We haven't started trying yet.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @German_reader, @Greasy William, @Sean

    1. Russia has been sending in its weakest and poorest equipped troops to die and will start actually trying really hard very soon!

    I mean, there is definitely something to this. Russian military operations always start off horrendously and Russian military doctrine is, by design, extremely casualty intensive. It is obvious that most of casualties that Russia has suffered so far, Russia regards as being a cheap loss.

    RU has clearly adapted since the early days of the offensive. Putin has fired all the people (besides himself) who were responsible to flaws in the initial assault and the Russian generals are being active at the fronts in order to make sure the offensive progresses properly.

    2. Russia has taken 15% of Ukrainian territory. That is amazing!

    It’s certainly respectable given the amount of time that has lapsed so far.

    3. The Russian military is showing Christ-like restraint and Zelensky is a monster for not immediately surrendering to save Ukrainian civillian lives.

    I’m not sure that Zelensky even can surrender. I assume his own guys would execute him if he tried. It really does appear like the Ukrainian people want to fight this invasion. That is their right, but it will necessarily result in a lot of dead Ukrainians. I really think both sides need to drop the whole “muh civilians” thing. What exactly do they think war is? Every side uses every advantage it can. If your cause is just then so are any means.

    4. The Russian economy is fine under sanctions. Russia makes “real” things, like oil, gas and does farming. This is where the future of economic growth is.

    The Russian economy will indeed adjust over the course of the next year, yes. Although I’m not certain that the US can hold out that long as Biden will need to lower food and energy prices to give himself any shot at re-election.

    6. The Ukrainian military will be encircled in an area the size of Southern England.

    There does appear to be a good chance of Russia cutting off all the roads into the so called cauldron, thereby denying the UA resupply and ultimately forcing them to abandon their heavy equipment and retreat to a new defensive line further west.

    11. The war is not our fault. Ukraine asked to join NATO because they are terrified of us invading and NATO did not say no, so of course we had to invade.

    Yeah, this one is pretty gross. Even still, US/NATO behavior towards Russia since the 90s has been unnecessarily provocative and ill advised. The US/EU need to accept that the world, for better or worse, is going to be more multipolar from now on.

    Once we take Mariupol, we will have so many forces freed up. We definitely planned for the long war.

    The Russians never properly plan their military operations. They come up with a half assed plan and then adjust after heavy losses. They have always fought this way. It’s just how they are.

    23. “Hey, look at that US Admiral who dresses like a woman. A nation that tolerates such eccentricity won’t last another week.”

    The political situation in the US is very bad, approaching dire. It is very questionable that the US has the political will to maintain these sanctions long term. The US will be hit by a murderous recession in around 6 months and when that happens, a lot of the US political class will be looking for a way out of this mess.

    16. We have hypersonic missile.

    This one really is cringe. There is no greater sign of weakness than bragging about your wonder weapons.

  68. @Wokechoke
    @German_reader

    Third World populations quite clearly see the double standards of the West. Anyone like Putin willing to fight it out with Johnson or Biden has a lot of sympathy from that part of the globe.

    It’s not complicated. The passionate hatred for Putin is diaspora Jews, Anglo Elites and nationalist Slavs in Poland, Ukraine and probably genuine fear in the Baltic states. I’d be a worried Estonian right now.

    Germany just wants to metal bang at reasonable prices. The French are looking for a commercial angle.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Wielgus

    Turks have a fear of Russia but do not necessarily think the West are good guys, and internalised the idea that if you think a threat is developing to you in a neighbouring country you bomb them and if necessary send the troops in. So Turkey has troops in both Syria and northern Iraq. As for Turkish Kurds, currently celebrating Newroz, they have learned not to place too much reliance on the West.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    @Wielgus

    I saw a Turkish TV panel discussion today on a pro-Erdoğan channel (Haber Global). The topic was "What are Turkey's interests? With NATO or with Russia?" Turkey has been in NATO since the 1950s. The fact that the topic is even raised, in a country whose media are not really free, is revealing.

    Replies: @LondonBob, @Wielgus

  69. @songbird
    Names with a variegated origin should be prefixed so that they become honest disclosures of ethnicity.

    Irish "Kellers" should become "O'Kellers" or "MacKellers."

    German "Kellers" should become "von Kellers" or "Kellersohns."

    Jewish "Kellers" should become... "JayKellers" ...or someone else can come up with something better.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    OT

    As a fellow Celt, I thought you might appreciate the satire I wrote for St. Patrick’s day.

    https://wellsvillesun.com/blog/2022/03/19/the-root-of-offense/

    I originally wrote it a few years ago, but I’m also putting my pieces in some other local papers so I re-ran it. Strangely enough, it seems less satirical all the time!

    • Replies: @AaronB
    @Barbarossa

    I now get the Barbarossa reference :)

    Nice writing.

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Barbarossa

    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Barbarossa

    I once spent a week on a Norwegian seismic ship. They had boiled potatoes at every lunch and dinner. Not just boiled potatoes. But still. WTF?

    Replies: @utu, @Barbarossa

    , @songbird
    @Barbarossa

    Thanks, that was funny! The end of it reminds me of this multicult potluck lunch we had in elementary school. The Irish soda bread I brought was not popular. LOL. TBH, I don't like it myself - especially when it has caraway seeds. I saw black pudding being made once, and will never forget it.

    Actually, had the big family feast today, corned beef and cabbage.

    BTW, one of my unrealized, minor life goals is to taste the lumper - the old variety of potato that was common in Ireland before the famine.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

  70. @Triteleia Laxa
    Top 32 Russian copes that are absurd and cringe on the face of it:

    1. Russia has been sending in its weakest and poorest equipped troops to die and will start actually trying really hard very soon!

    2. Russia has taken 15% of Ukrainian territory. That is amazing!

    3. The Russian military is showing Christ-like restraint and Zelensky is a monster for not immediately surrendering to save Ukrainian civillian lives.

    4. The Russian economy is fine under sanctions. Russia makes "real" things, like oil, gas and does farming. This is where the future of economic growth is.

    5. The Chinese are our friends and will stick with us, as long as the cheap oil and gas lasts.

    6. The Ukrainian military will be encircled in an area the size of Southern England.

    7. Our professional army will win a war of attrition with the populace of the country if Ukraine. We lost almost 30 million people in WW2.

    8. 5 out of 20 Russian Generals deployed to Ukrainian have been killed in action, and that's great because that is what true leadership as a General looks like.

    9. There will be no insurgency because if we win, because Europeans don't do insurgencies.

    10. Our most intelligent people are fleeing our country, but we don't need them. We have a hyper-modern economy of resource extraction and farming.

    11. The war is not our fault. Ukraine asked to join NATO because they are terrified of us invading and NATO did not say no, so of course we had to invade.

    12. Only Nazis in Ukraine want to be Ukrainian. Everyone else loves us.

    13. We can just sit outside Ukrainian cities and shell them until they agree to Russia ruling them.

    14. The Russian people almost unanimously support our special operation, where the only civillian casualties are from the Ukrainians bombing their own people behind their own lines.

    15. If Poland and other NATO countries continue to provide arms to Ukraine, Russia will invade them too.

    16. We have hypersonic missile.

    17. Any of the complete drivel written by Pepe Escobar, the Saker or other spiteful mutants.

    18. The Chechens or the Syrians will save us.

    19. Once we take Mariupol, we will have so many forces freed up. We definitely planned for the long war.

    20. We wanted these sanctions and it will allow us to have a really great standard of living and economy.

    21. But look at those few African countries like Congo that didn't condemn us. The Congolese man on the mud track is our biggest supporter.

    22. "But Iraq."

    23. "Hey, look at that US Admiral who dresses like a woman. A nation that tolerates such eccentricity won't last another week."

    24. "We have taken random farm land on our borders, while Zelensky has pranced for the international media to secure endless resupply. We know how to fight a real war with facts and hard things."

    25. We can hold ground in cities with our artillery army.

    26. We will use $100 million missiles to inderdict all of the infinite resupply Ukrain gets.

    27. We defeated the Ukrainian navy.

    28. Putin is such a great leader that he cannot even find a successor."

    29. "Fake and gay" is not just internet slang for "Potemkin" and that is totally inappropriate to describe our superpower status.

    30. India supports us. On of their retired nonagenarian Generals said we were doing well and they are happy to buy our stuff at a discount.

    31. Our movement is based on third world solidarity and we will be a space-faring hyper-cosmic Empire.

    32. We haven't started trying yet.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @German_reader, @Greasy William, @Sean

    1. The average (in the sense of vast majority) Russian soldier is not very good. I am not sure how many regular soldiers Ukraine has left. Russia generalship is incredibly careless of causalities that anyone else would consider prohibitive relative to what the Russians have available in manpower.
    2. They have very roughly got 10% of the territory and lost 10% of the men they went in with, but they have got a very strategic 10% for the loss of not terribly effective troops.
    3. Deaths in the war so far have been mainly of Russian soldiers.
    4. Not everyone wants Russia to be knocked out of the balance of power by economic sanction leaving the US in a dominant global position. Unbearable for Russia is going to make the West very uncomfortable.
    5. See 4. Also India . Couple of billion people hungry for what Russian can offer and now able to get a special low price.
    6. Encirclement is the Russian way of war.
    7.Underestimating the will of the Russians has already cost Ukraine plenty, with a long running war millions more of refugees are going to leave for the West and whatever they now say many will never return. Demographers were already saying that Ukraine was going to have too few people for it large territory, and might have to give part of the country away in a generation. Even before this war Ukrainians had identical rights of EU entry to British people: 90 days’ stay without a visa. The refugees are nice people getting a warm welcome in wealthy countries who will give them leave to remain . I think with the stuff they are now getting, the Ukrainians are going to maul and frustrate the Russians, but the phrase Pyrrhic victory comes to mind. The largest country in Europe ending this with an actual population of mid 30s million; are they going to invite in Turks?
    8. A quarter of Russian men are dead by 55, like the last two heads of the GRU.
    9. The Ukrainians are fighting well, but history shows the countries that resist with regular forces to the bitter end when invaded have had enough by the time there is a ceasefire
    10. A research fellow of Stanford University’s Hoover Institution summarized his years of research and multi tome publications: ” In a few words: there is no such thing as Soviet technology. Almost all — perhaps 90–95 percent — came directly or indirectly from the United States and its allies”. When Reagan Administration came in and cut off of the technology transfers, in a incident Professor Mearsheimer noted “Marshal Nikolai Ogarkov was dismissed as the chief of the Soviet general staff in the summer of 1984 for saying publicly that Soviet industry was falling badly behind American industry, which meant that Soviet weaponry would soon be inferior to American weaponry. Russia trying to be cutting edge wouldn’t work, so they can afford to lose intelligent people without affecting their real strength. Also, those people are going to be liberals anyway so Putin is glad to see the back of them
    11.

    The following is the text of the U.S.-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership signed by U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Washington, D.C. on November 10, 2021.

    The United States and Ukraine:

    Reaffirm the importance of our relationship as friends and strategic partners, based both on our shared values and common interests, including a commitment to a Europe that is whole, free, democratic, and at peace. Reiterate that the strategic partnership existing between our two nations is critical for the security of Ukraine and Europe as a whole.

    Zelinsky seems to have counted on this and his being the first Ukrainian president to secure a meeting with a POTUS to
    deter the Russians. Russia had already suffered a defeat in 2008 with the future Nato announcement and again in 2021 when for the first time a Potus agreed to meet the Ukrainian president. It simply was not acceptable for Russia to have Ukraine as America’s sidekick, and Russia made no secret of that.
    12.Millions of Russians live in Ukraine, especially the East of the country, and the political class in Kiev twice (2004 and 2014) overthrew by street demonstration a Russia friendly and democratically elected President from the Russian speaking community with strong support there who had got enough Ukrainian speakers to vote for him to win. That sounds like integral nationalism to me. Not German integral nationalism (AKA Nazism) to be sure, but a Ukrainian variety.
    13. Russia did not count on Ukraine changing the spelling of it’ capital city making it impossible to find! It will take about a week or two to reduce the defended urban area of Kiev, starting at the outside and moving in to the centre. The howitzer ammunition is not there yet.
    14. Russian conscripts being hunted like hares by Ukrainians with advanced American technology is not going to endear Ukraine to Russians.
    15. Poland did not just give Ukraine the fighter planes, it tried to get them sent via a Nato base. Sounds like Poland is trying to start a wider war.
    32. America has not yet started to fight on Ukraine’s side and they are not going to. Anyone could see that if and when it came down to it, Ukraine would be standing alone in a bloody battle of wills fought on Ukraine’s territory not Russia’s. It is a crime that Zelinsky became president.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Sean

    Your reply reeks of desperation. There is not a single point that is worth addressing. You and the other replyguys are cringe.

    Wokechoke is less cringe than you though. He just has no idea about how to evaluate a military campaign. He seems to think it is a computer game where you collect resources, construct armies and order them into battle through clicks.

    He's a dumb child, but you're either lying through your teeth or deep in a pit of denial. Perhaps you're secretly Vladimir Putin. Only such a ridiculous level of self-delusion can explain why he hasn't found a way out of this disaster yet. True catastrophe is impending for the Russian army and, without a hasty withdrawal, it will be as remembered as Agincourt and for the same reasons.

    Replies: @Sean, @utu

    , @Brás Cubas
    @Sean

    Agree with 1 to 12!
    Number 13 is possibly all right but I'm neither an expert nor up-to-date on the matter.
    Number 14 sounded a little off. It's the only one to which Triteleia Laxa's adjective "desperate" perhaps applies (but her 14 was a little silly, too).
    Number 15 diverges from the most common interpretation (Poland just wanted to dodge responsibility). Can't say who's correct.
    Number 32 you probably did not understand what Triteleia Laxa wrote ("we" means the Russians).

    Overall an outstanding reply!

    , @SimplePseudonymicHandle
    @Sean


    14. Russian conscripts being hunted like hares by Ukrainians with advanced American technology is not going to endear Ukraine to Russians.
     
    I think for those conscripts that sucks.
    Not as much as having your country invaded, still less than having it invaded because “brothers”, but on the scale of things it sucks a lot.

    And: there’s not a lot Russia can do about it.
  71. @AP
    Looks like Chechen performance is poor:




    https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1505574681163689985?s=21

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Beckow, @Commentator Mike

    I got this

    Hmm… this page doesn’t exist. Try searching for something else.

    when I went to your twitter link.

  72. @A123
    @Commentator Mike


    Hypersonic may be used for its bunker bursting potential as that was an underground arsenal
     
    That is a fair point. While the Iskander ballistic missile is good for ground penetration, presumably, the Kinzhal is better.

    Your explanation is as likely as mine. There is no way to analyze the cases unless additional information becomes available.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @prime noticer

    “Your explanation is as likely as mine. There is no way to analyze the cases unless additional information becomes available.”

    we already know what the reason is. the US carrier running 24 hour a day missions in the Mediterranean.

    it’s not for bunker busting. it’s not because their supply of other missiles is running low.

    it’s because USS Harry S. Truman is in Ionian Sea doing dozens of flights a day. Russia is telling the US that we can sink that carrier, and all your carriers, any time we want, and there’s nothing you can do to stop it. so let’s keep your surface fleet out of this, thanks.

    the pentagon is just wasting tax payer money while some admiral gets a boner flying ‘deterrent’ missions all day.

  73. @German_reader
    @Triteleia Laxa


    21. But look at those few African countries like Congo that didn’t condemn us. The Congolese man on the mud track is our biggest supporter.
     
    Democratic republic of Congo actually has condemned the invasion (Congo Brazzaville has abstained):
    https://www.statista.com/chart/26946/stance-on-ukraine-invasion/

    That being said, I do get the impression that there's substantial sympathy for Russia/antipathy to NATO in non-Western countries, the position taken by South Africa and India is certainly illuminating. Karlin is probably right that many see it through the lens of putting down the hated West (which makes me wish there actually was some real Western supremacy...South Africa could be punished by supporting a Boer secessionist movement against the white genocide there. Alas, only dreams).

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Thulean Friend, @Yahya

    I get the impression there’s substantial sympathy for Russia/antipathy to NATO in non-Western countries, the position taken by South Africa and India is certainly illuminating. […] many see it through the lens of putting down the hated West

    No, it’s just pragmatism. Indians for e.g. don’t see why a war in Europe should concern them. They need Russia for gas, oil and weapons. Why set aside national interest because whitoids are having internal squabbles? Doesn’t seem to make much sense. Similar attitudes are prevalent in many different non-Western countries.

    Indians don’t hate the West, many would like to move here. In India, most hatred is reserved for the Mughals and the various moslem rulers. British India is not remembered fondly, but most can compartamentalise and understand that you need to seperate history with the present. Such luxuries are not afforded to moslems living in India.

    It’s not just a question of material selfishness either (e.g. being nice to be able to get in). An Indian film festival recently refused to select a film to send to the Oscars since it was deemed as “anti-British”, even as it tried to deal with life under the Raj. There was no material gain to be had from that, if anything it’d make more sense to stoke white guilt.

    I think the kind of anti-white animus – which is real, and which needs to be acknowledged – that is encouraged in the Western media only has an effect on domestic minorities because many feel alienated to begin with. If you’d travel to most third world countries you’d be shocked how well people treat you.

    I’m only half-joking when I say that the last stand of white supremacy will be in Asia. Sometimes that can get ugly, such as anti-black racism since colorism is widespread.

    • Thanks: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Thulean Friend

    I was reading in the main Indian media sites in English in the last 10 minutes and they seem to be supporting neutrality for their national interest, while supporting Ukraine for their emotional view.

    Today main opinion of The Hindu. They are saying it's difficult to be neutral, although they think India needs to try neutral.
    https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/mounting-pressure-the-hindu-editorial-on-why-india-should-keep-its-options-open-on-ukraine/article65243546.ece

    In Times of India. "And while Russia has not made things easy with its unjustifiable Ukraine invasion, India shouldn’t be compromising its strategic autonomy in trade. The latter isn’t a matter of how India should view the Ukraine war. It is a geoeconomic strategy commensurate with India’s position in the global order today."
    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-editorials/buy-russian-oil-europe-is-buying-russian-energy-india-should-too-and-think-deeper-on-strategic-trade-autonomy/


    Indians don’t hate the West, many would like to move here. In India, most hatred is reserved for the Mughals

     

    I think Indians have a negative political attitude to England, as a former colony. But Hindu Indians seem to mainly just dislike Muslims, or mainly Pakistan.

    Another feature of Indian media, is obsession for Israel (unlike Pakistan). They have selected Israel as their positive economic development model, probably as they view it as a third world democracy that transitions economic categories.

    You can see WION (India's BBC World News) reporting the war in Ukraine through an angle of Zionist immigration policy. A high proportion of WION's uploads about Ukraine, related to this, strangely.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXSlZ5j3T0E.


    alienated to begin with. If you’d travel to most third world countries you’d be shocked how well people treat you.
     
    Has anyone tested the claim that in Pakistan they give white and Chinese people free things randomly?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWeWxl7ruGE

    , @Dream
    @Thulean Friend

    1. Indians have a great deal of hatred and suspicion for Western whites and the West - which stems from massive inferiority complexes. Many Hindu/ Indian nationalists believe that the entire wealth of the West was built on loot from India and the global South. Upper/upper-middle class Indians want to move to the West because of economic reasons just like lower class ones migrate to the Gulf countries - not because they love whites or Muslims.

    2. Indian judiciary, academia and media is liberal - their enemy is the Hindu nationalist. To stop the avalanche of Hindu nationalism which very anti- West and anti-British, they sometimes softly defend British colonialism. This the why the movie was rejected. Indian liberal elites are a very small minority and are not representative of the average Indian.

    3. People in the Third World treat whites well because society is semi-feudal - which means wealth and power( which whites still have) is respected. Whites are just tourists, attitudes would reverse if whites started settling( see South Africa, Namibia, Mauritius). Asians and Africans are extremely tribal compared to white Westerners.

    4. Modern "anti-white" hatred from minorities in the West is an absolute joke - Western society is too individualistic and hedonistic to foster such sentiments. Where are the racial riots, inter ethnic clashes and killings? Crying about racism in the media and destroying property doesn't count.

    Replies: @Coconuts, @Indifferent Contrarian, @Emil Nikola Richard

  74. German_reader says:
    @songbird
    @German_reader


    South Africa’s pro-Russian stance really shows what a disastrous mistake it was to throw the Afrikaners under the bus in a futile attempt to curry favour with useless black Africans.
     
    Am no fan of the South African government, but seems entirely rational from their perspective to want a multipolar world, without necessarily attributing it to animus.

    IMO, throwing the Rhodesians and white South Africans under the bus was done for ideological reasons about race. The Cold War was just a justification. I'm not saying it was the case exactly, but I believe it would be truer to say that it was done to please American blacks than African ones.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @German_reader

    Am no fan of the South African government, but seems entirely rational from their perspective to want a multipolar world, without necessarily attributing it to animus.

    Sure, but they’re definitely no less hypocrites than Western elites. They like to declare their solidarity with Palestinians and other victims of Western imperialism, but obviously don’t care about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is definitely one of the more egregious breaches of international law in recent decades.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @German_reader


    ...one of the more egregious breaches of international law in recent decades.
     
    One of about 4 or 5, all of the other ones were done by the NATO countries. Sure, you and some others 'denounced' it (what does that even mean?). There were no consequences and most of the wars have been memory-holed by the Western media.

    We have two nuclear power plants. I remember around the time when we were joining EU we got a few hundred European demonstrators ('greens') coming over to tell us to shut them down immediately. Some were from France and Sweden. We had an argument with a group of Swedes about it, we asked why don't they demonstrate at home. Their response: "we do, but the energy lobby, consumers, blabla...it is complex, nobody listens." So instead they came to us, Czechia, Bulgaria to preach their virtues. This is the same. Don't be surprised if we find your weird sudden discovery of virtues and peace-at-any-cost non-convincing. It is hypocrisy.

    Replies: @German_reader

    , @songbird
    @German_reader

    If anything, I'd maybe look at it in the other direction and marvel at how many might be perceived to be puppet states. (Or, maybe, I'm too cynical?)

    I did once hear a white South African say that he thought Botswana was run from London, for decades.

    Anyway, if it is a true observation, then it would make the end of colonialism kind of ironic. The foreign policy is the same, but the domestic functionality seems a lot lower, in many cases.

  75. Let’s rename this war to be Putin’s War

  76. @china-russia-all-the-way
    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1505129589043048448

    The advance from the Kherson axis is moving towards Zaporizhzhia. It is home to airplane engine and gas turbine manufacturer Motor Sich, the crown jewel of Ukrainian manufacturing. A Chinese firm acquired a stake in Motor Sich in 2017 but Trump administration pressure compelled Zelensky to issue decrees freezing ownership. There is ongoing international arbitration brought by the Chinese firm against the Ukrainian state for expropriating its shares in Motor Sich.


    Chinese investors have brought a $3.5 billion arbitration case against Ukraine for blocking the sale of a strategic aircraft engine maker whose fate Washington is closely following.

    ...

    Motor Sich owner Vyacheslav Bohuslayev agreed in 2017 to sell a majority stake in the company to Skyrizon, triggering concerns in Kyiv and Washington over the transfer of its advanced technology to Beijing.

    Former national-security adviser John Bolton told Ukrainian officials last year during a trip to Ukraine that the U.S. opposes the sale of the company to China. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reiterated that message this year.

    However, Motor Sich needs large-scale investment to stay competitive, and Western companies haven’t shown great interest in buying the Soviet-era company, which employs thousands of workers, putting Washington and Kyiv in a tough position as they seek a solution.
     

    If there is heavy fighting, it looks like the factory will get destroyed. A loss for everyone.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    factory will get destroyed. A loss for everyone.

    Who cares about a aerospace factory, from this context. It will be reconstructed, although who will pay is another question. If the airplane industry recovers, then there will always be demand. The important and irreplaceable issue of war, is that thousands of people are killed.

    Aside from the loss for the people killed themselves, most Ukrainians and the slavic part of the Russian population are from families with only one child now. So, even non-civilian, “military losses” of soldiers, are often parents losing their only child.

    • Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way
    @Dmitry

    The shares owned by the Chinese firm that were frozen by the Ukrainian government will be unfrozen by the Novorossiya government. I hope to see: the factory will be reconstructed and modernized and employ many thousands becoming a lodestar for Novorossiya high tech exports. The US will impose sanctions on Novorossiya similar to Crimea making it difficult to finance the reconstruction and upgrade of the factory. Where there is a will there will be a way. I'm sure a bank dedicated to Novorossiya transactions will be created in China to support reconstruction financing.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  77. @Barbarossa
    @songbird

    OT

    As a fellow Celt, I thought you might appreciate the satire I wrote for St. Patrick's day.

    https://wellsvillesun.com/blog/2022/03/19/the-root-of-offense/

    I originally wrote it a few years ago, but I'm also putting my pieces in some other local papers so I re-ran it. Strangely enough, it seems less satirical all the time!

    Replies: @AaronB, @Emil Nikola Richard, @songbird

    I now get the Barbarossa reference 🙂

    Nice writing.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @AaronB

    Thanks. I'm glad you liked it.

    The Russophiles around here probably thought my handle was some sort of Nazi provocation on my part! I use it as my commenting alias across a couple platforms so it just happens to come off as funny around here.

    , @Barbarossa
    @AaronB

    Here is one you might like if you'd care to read it. I know I'm preaching to the choir with this, but oh well. As you can see, the discussions that happen around here end up circling back to my writing in some form often times.

    https://wellsvillesun.com/blog/2022/02/15/sean-hyland-column-consumer-or-creator/

    Replies: @AaronB

  78. @Yevardian
    I'm going to take a break from Unz for a month or two in the next couple days, and the internet in general. I've been spending too much time obsessively following this war, and since in the end I'm totally removed from it, it starts to feel like voyeurism. Trudging through the dishonesty, intense anger and propaganda on both sides isn't really rewarding either.

    Could anybody here who reads recommend some books (fiction, essays or history), also in Russian, Spanish or even Romanian? I'm pretty familiar with Russian and English authors, but I almost know nothing about Spanish literature (read Borges and Paz, didn't like either very much, actually I enjoyed reading Eduardo Galeano's leftist tracts better).

    I'm thinking to finally read one Hillgruber's main works, although it seems most of his output has never been translated, in general if someone (utu?) might recommend some 'powerful' accounts of Europe 1918-1945 (anything like e.g. Lothrop Stoddard's 'Into the Darkness'), that aren't wally-tier revisionist garbage, I'd be thankful.

    I've also been looking (admittedly not very hard) for a detailed general history of France, something broad that isn't also just a shallow survey. It feels like an absolutely overwhelming proportion of books in English (or Russian) are about the Revolution, its background, or Napoleon, it's actually not that easy to find a balanced history that doesn't treat all French history as a leadup or aftermath of those events.

    Also wondering if there's been any major books dealing with Israel, China (last thing I read was Fenby's 'Fall and Rise of a Great Power: 1850-2009, obviously a lot changed since then), Turkey (I've only read Zürcher's book on modern Turkey), Greece (Roderick Beaton has an excellent survey, but it ends in 2007) or Russia in the past 20-30 years that avoid being hyper-partisan, or at least attempt emotional distance and objectivity? I'm close to finishing a recent (and quite acid) account of Gorbachev's presidency, Vladislav Zubok's 'Collapse', which just came out last year. So a good detailed work on the Yeltsin years to the present I'm looking for.
    Probably now would also be a good time to read a modern history of Ukraine too, I read two recently but one was a brief summary and the other was just a partisan travel account of the country post-Maidan.

    Also maybe German_Reader (did you read Barnes work on Ammianus?) could recommend any particularly interesting papers or books on Antiquity? I finished Anson's work on Eumenes, 'A Greek Among Macedonians', recently that was absolutely excellent, I'd recommend for anyone who has an interest in that period.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Beckow, @Dacian Julien Soros, @Agathoklis, @Blinky Bill, @Dmitry, @Sasu, @AP

    Have you read Herodotus yet? I feel like I remember German Reader was going to advise us to read him.

    Spanish literature

    Maybe Unamuno could be interesting? I never read his books though. Probably, Mikel has a view. This is the kind of book I would look for as a souvenir in Spain.

    For political discussion about Latin America, there is a stereotypically looking bourgeois, non-Marxist writer from Peru, Mario Vargas Llosa, who writes essays about Latin American politics. But I didn’t read them yet. I read a few of his articles in El Pais sometimes.

    • Replies: @New Dealer
    @Dmitry

    Love, love, love Vargas Llosa.

    His favorite, included in the western canon by Bloom, a fictionalization of true events, and on my top ten list of astonishing novels: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_War_of_the_End_of_the_World


    In the midst of the economic decline — following drought and the end of slavery — in the province of Bahia in Northeastern Brazil, the poor of the backlands are attracted by the charismatic figure and simple religious teachings of Antonio Conselheiro, called "The Counselor", who preaches that the end of the world is imminent and that the political chaos that surrounds the collapse of the Empire of Brazil and its replacement by a republic is the work of the devil.

    Seizing a fazenda in an area blighted by economic decline at Canudos the Counselor's followers build a large town and repeatedly defeat growing military expeditions designed to remove them. As the state's violence against them increases, they too turn increasingly violent, even seizing the modern weapons deployed against them. In an epic final clash, a whole army is sent to extirpate Canudos and instigates a terrible and brutal battle with the poor while politicians of the old order see their world destroyed in the conflagration.
     
    Also love https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Feast_of_the_Goat a fictionalization of Trujillo's tough political career.

    Vargas Llosa also happens to be a nonleftist.
    , @Adept
    @Dmitry

    Unamuno's philosophical books are good, and well worth reading. Imagine one part Nietzsche, if Nietzsche were extremely Catholic; one part Kierkegaard, if Kierkegaard were more focused and less scatterbrained; one part Islam-style fatalism. The end result is a sort of warrior-Christianity that is open to self-doubt and self-reflection, but advises faith nevertheless.

    I haven't yet read the man's fiction, but I've heard that it's also very good.

    As for the present war, Unamuno would be utterly disgusted beyond belief.

  79. https://bostonreview.net/articles/nato-and-the-road-not-taken/

    The outrage in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reflects the widespread belief that it cannot reasonably be seen as a necessary war of self-defense against an aggressor. Indeed, like the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, Russia’s assault on Ukraine is a preventive war: its justification was that a designated enemy might, at some point in the future, pose a serious threat. Preventative wars do more than just violate international humanitarian law; when powerful countries claim the right to invade other countries and topple their governments based on imagined scenarios that they declare unacceptable, they make the world an even more dangerous place. Whatever Putin’s apprehensions about NATO, they do not justify his unprovoked assault on Ukraine, to say nothing of the Russian army’s wanton attacks on civilians. […] Putin bears all the blame for the deterioration in U.S.-Russian relations and NATO expansion has had nothing to do with it. Case closed. If only things were that simple and easily reducible to moral certitudes.
    Russia’s Apprehensions
    Declassified documents demonstrate that President Boris Yeltsin expressed his opposition to NATO to the Clinton administration on several occasions, and that senior U.S. diplomats relayed to Washington the pervasive antipathy toward the policy within Russia’s foreign policy and national security apparatus. For example, in 1993, as Secretary of State Warren Christopher was about to depart for a meeting with Yeltsin, the chargé d’affaires at the U.S. embassy, James Collins, sent a cable warning that NATO expansion was “neuralgic to the Russians,” who feared that they would “end up on the wrong side of a new division of Europe . . . if NATO adopts a policy which envisions expansion into Central and Eastern Europe without holding the door open to Russia.” That outcome, warned Collins, “would be universally interpreted in Moscow as directed at Russia and Russia alone—or ‘Neo-Containment’, as Foreign Minister [Andrei] Kozyrev recently suggested.” […] . Consider what Yeltsin told President Bill Clinton during their May 10, 1995, meeting in Moscow:

    I want to get a clear understanding of your idea of NATO expansion because now I see nothing but humiliation for Russia if you proceed. How do you think it looks to us if one bloc continues to exist while the Warsaw Pact has been abolished? It’s a new form of encirclement if the one surviving Cold War bloc expands right up to the borders of Russia. Many Russians have a sense of fear. What do you want to achieve with this if Russia is your partner? [T]hey ask. I ask it too: Why do you want to do this? We need a new structure for Pan-European security, not old ones! Perhaps the solution is to postpone NATO expansion until the year 2000 so that later we can come up with some new ideas. Let’s have no blocs, only one European space that provides for its own security.

    Putin’s animosity toward NATO’s enlargement represented continuity, not a personal quirk […]

    This call to station even more American troops and armaments in Europe is curious considering that European countries’ combined GDP (\$15.3 trillion) is more than ten times Russia’s (\$1.5 trillion). Moreover, Europe boasts world-class tech companies and many top-grade defense industries—in short, ample wherewithal for self-defense. What Europe lacks is political will, and that owes to the iron-clad U.S. defense guarantee that endures even thirty years after the Cold War. The watchword in Washington remains that the United States must maintain its status, as former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright put it, as “the indispensable nation.” Part of that role involves serving as the protector par excellence for European countries that recovered from the ravages of World War II decades ago to become competitors of the United States in the global marketplace. [..”} NATO never had any serious intention of guaranteeing Ukraine security through membership. It left Kyiv in limbo.

    Who misled Ukraine?

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Sean

    NATO was simply waiting for public opinion in Ukraine to become more favorable towards inclusion. It was growing more and more every year and is probably at 100% favorable at this time. Looks like Ukrainians felt that the greater danger lie from incursions from Russia than from the West, and you know, they were right:


    when powerful countries claim the right to invade other countries and topple their governments based on imagined scenarios that they declare unacceptable, they make the world an even more dangerous place. Whatever Putin’s apprehensions about NATO, they do not justify his unprovoked assault on Ukraine, to say nothing of the Russian army’s wanton attacks on civilians.
     

    Replies: @Sean, @Barbarossa

  80. @AaronB
    @Barbarossa

    I now get the Barbarossa reference :)

    Nice writing.

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Barbarossa

    Thanks. I’m glad you liked it.

    The Russophiles around here probably thought my handle was some sort of Nazi provocation on my part! I use it as my commenting alias across a couple platforms so it just happens to come off as funny around here.

    • LOL: AaronB
  81. @Barbarossa
    @songbird

    OT

    As a fellow Celt, I thought you might appreciate the satire I wrote for St. Patrick's day.

    https://wellsvillesun.com/blog/2022/03/19/the-root-of-offense/

    I originally wrote it a few years ago, but I'm also putting my pieces in some other local papers so I re-ran it. Strangely enough, it seems less satirical all the time!

    Replies: @AaronB, @Emil Nikola Richard, @songbird

    I once spent a week on a Norwegian seismic ship. They had boiled potatoes at every lunch and dinner. Not just boiled potatoes. But still. WTF?

    • LOL: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @utu
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    Probably the best boiled potatoes I had in Tromso, Norway.

    , @Barbarossa
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    My Mom is, bless her heart, not much of a cook and my Dad is a picky eater, so the fare growing up tended to be very meat and potatoes. Sometimes literally just meat and potatoes, as with a dish optimistically called "Hamburg Gravy" which consisted of plain ground beef sauteed with salt and pepper and plain boiled potatoes. On the side was often canned creamed corn. I really hated "Hamburg Gravy" days as a kid.

    I'm not sure why anyone would choose to serve slimy boiled potatoes when they are so good mashed with lots of butter and garlic or crisped with lard in a skillet.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  82. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Barbarossa

    I once spent a week on a Norwegian seismic ship. They had boiled potatoes at every lunch and dinner. Not just boiled potatoes. But still. WTF?

    Replies: @utu, @Barbarossa

    Probably the best boiled potatoes I had in Tromso, Norway.

  83. @AaronB
    @Barbarossa

    I now get the Barbarossa reference :)

    Nice writing.

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Barbarossa

    Here is one you might like if you’d care to read it. I know I’m preaching to the choir with this, but oh well. As you can see, the discussions that happen around here end up circling back to my writing in some form often times.

    https://wellsvillesun.com/blog/2022/02/15/sean-hyland-column-consumer-or-creator/

    • Replies: @AaronB
    @Barbarossa

    Thanks!

    I read it - I agree with pretty much all of it and it's very well expressed and well developed.

    You're a great writer and we need more people like you getting these positive alternative messages out there into our local communities.

    It's good work, and increasingly I think we all have a responsibility to assist in cultural transformation - and contra Dmitry, I think these things have a huge impact!

    I plan on beginning projects of this kind this year, that assist in cultural transformation and present a different view of what life can be like - for myself, I plan on doing YouTube videos of my wilderness camping and exploration, and tying it into Taoist, early Christian (I'm not Christian but I think early Christian spirituality has a deep message for our times, Desert Fathers, etc), and general spiritual themes that relate to wildness.

    I hope to feature some of the ancient wilderness poetry of China, which is too little known in the West. Unlike Western poetry, it's extremely direct and simple, and celebrates the wild in a lyrical way.

    Incidentally, for some reason I thought you were out West, in Utah or something, but I now remember that's Mikel, who lives by the beautiful Wasatch range iirc. I hope Mikel is doing well in his beautiful Mountain Kingdom. But I am pleased to see you are far from the corruption of NYC :)

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Mikel

  84. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Barbarossa

    I once spent a week on a Norwegian seismic ship. They had boiled potatoes at every lunch and dinner. Not just boiled potatoes. But still. WTF?

    Replies: @utu, @Barbarossa

    My Mom is, bless her heart, not much of a cook and my Dad is a picky eater, so the fare growing up tended to be very meat and potatoes. Sometimes literally just meat and potatoes, as with a dish optimistically called “Hamburg Gravy” which consisted of plain ground beef sauteed with salt and pepper and plain boiled potatoes. On the side was often canned creamed corn. I really hated “Hamburg Gravy” days as a kid.

    I’m not sure why anyone would choose to serve slimy boiled potatoes when they are so good mashed with lots of butter and garlic or crisped with lard in a skillet.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Barbarossa

    Boiled potatoes can taste great if you use the right kind and top them with the right accoutrements. There seems to have occurred a real revolution in the type of potatoes that reach the consumers plate today, at least here in the States. I almost always buy a type called "Yukon gold" or yellows nowadays. They're a small, tasty little spud that almost taste like they've been genetically engineered to include butter in its taste profile. The outer layer needs little washing, indeed I never peel them. They cook up quickly and all they need is a little black pepper on top, and my favorite topping, sour cream and finely diced dill. Delicious!

    https://image.shutterstock.com/image-photo/raw-yukon-gold-potatoes-on-260nw-57322951.jpg

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Jmaie

  85. china-russia-all-the-way says:

    Is there any indication of what the end goal is? Is this it?

  86. No one here knows anything. Wishful thinking from everyone on all sides. None of the news sources is reliable. We need to learn patience. We will find out when we find out.

  87. china-russia-all-the-way says:
    @Dmitry
    @china-russia-all-the-way


    factory will get destroyed. A loss for everyone.
     
    Who cares about a aerospace factory, from this context. It will be reconstructed, although who will pay is another question. If the airplane industry recovers, then there will always be demand. The important and irreplaceable issue of war, is that thousands of people are killed.

    Aside from the loss for the people killed themselves, most Ukrainians and the slavic part of the Russian population are from families with only one child now. So, even non-civilian, "military losses" of soldiers, are often parents losing their only child.

    Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way

    The shares owned by the Chinese firm that were frozen by the Ukrainian government will be unfrozen by the Novorossiya government. I hope to see: the factory will be reconstructed and modernized and employ many thousands becoming a lodestar for Novorossiya high tech exports. The US will impose sanctions on Novorossiya similar to Crimea making it difficult to finance the reconstruction and upgrade of the factory. Where there is a will there will be a way. I’m sure a bank dedicated to Novorossiya transactions will be created in China to support reconstruction financing.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    I wrote who cares about reconstructing some factory, when thousands of people have been killed (that will not be easily "reconstructed"). I'm not sure your reply to my comment would pass a Turing test.

  88. @Sean

    https://bostonreview.net/articles/nato-and-the-road-not-taken/

    The outrage in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reflects the widespread belief that it cannot reasonably be seen as a necessary war of self-defense against an aggressor. Indeed, like the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, Russia’s assault on Ukraine is a preventive war: its justification was that a designated enemy might, at some point in the future, pose a serious threat. Preventative wars do more than just violate international humanitarian law; when powerful countries claim the right to invade other countries and topple their governments based on imagined scenarios that they declare unacceptable, they make the world an even more dangerous place. Whatever Putin’s apprehensions about NATO, they do not justify his unprovoked assault on Ukraine, to say nothing of the Russian army’s wanton attacks on civilians. [...] Putin bears all the blame for the deterioration in U.S.-Russian relations and NATO expansion has had nothing to do with it. Case closed. If only things were that simple and easily reducible to moral certitudes.
    Russia’s Apprehensions
    Declassified documents demonstrate that President Boris Yeltsin expressed his opposition to NATO to the Clinton administration on several occasions, and that senior U.S. diplomats relayed to Washington the pervasive antipathy toward the policy within Russia’s foreign policy and national security apparatus. For example, in 1993, as Secretary of State Warren Christopher was about to depart for a meeting with Yeltsin, the chargé d’affaires at the U.S. embassy, James Collins, sent a cable warning that NATO expansion was “neuralgic to the Russians,” who feared that they would “end up on the wrong side of a new division of Europe . . . if NATO adopts a policy which envisions expansion into Central and Eastern Europe without holding the door open to Russia.” That outcome, warned Collins, “would be universally interpreted in Moscow as directed at Russia and Russia alone—or ‘Neo-Containment’, as Foreign Minister [Andrei] Kozyrev recently suggested.” [...] . Consider what Yeltsin told President Bill Clinton during their May 10, 1995, meeting in Moscow:


    I want to get a clear understanding of your idea of NATO expansion because now I see nothing but humiliation for Russia if you proceed. How do you think it looks to us if one bloc continues to exist while the Warsaw Pact has been abolished? It’s a new form of encirclement if the one surviving Cold War bloc expands right up to the borders of Russia. Many Russians have a sense of fear. What do you want to achieve with this if Russia is your partner? [T]hey ask. I ask it too: Why do you want to do this? We need a new structure for Pan-European security, not old ones! Perhaps the solution is to postpone NATO expansion until the year 2000 so that later we can come up with some new ideas. Let’s have no blocs, only one European space that provides for its own security.

     

    Putin’s animosity toward NATO’s enlargement represented continuity, not a personal quirk [...]

    This call to station even more American troops and armaments in Europe is curious considering that European countries’ combined GDP ($15.3 trillion) is more than ten times Russia’s ($1.5 trillion). Moreover, Europe boasts world-class tech companies and many top-grade defense industries—in short, ample wherewithal for self-defense. What Europe lacks is political will, and that owes to the iron-clad U.S. defense guarantee that endures even thirty years after the Cold War. The watchword in Washington remains that the United States must maintain its status, as former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright put it, as “the indispensable nation.” Part of that role involves serving as the protector par excellence for European countries that recovered from the ravages of World War II decades ago to become competitors of the United States in the global marketplace. [..''} NATO never had any serious intention of guaranteeing Ukraine security through membership. It left Kyiv in limbo.
     

    Who misled Ukraine?

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    NATO was simply waiting for public opinion in Ukraine to become more favorable towards inclusion. It was growing more and more every year and is probably at 100% favorable at this time. Looks like Ukrainians felt that the greater danger lie from incursions from Russia than from the West, and you know, they were right:

    when powerful countries claim the right to invade other countries and topple their governments based on imagined scenarios that they declare unacceptable, they make the world an even more dangerous place. Whatever Putin’s apprehensions about NATO, they do not justify his unprovoked assault on Ukraine, to say nothing of the Russian army’s wanton attacks on civilians.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Mr. Hack


    NATO was simply waiting for public opinion in Ukraine to become more favorable towards inclusion
     
    No, no. It does not matter what Ukrainians think; they have no more right to join Nato that Russia does. Several Nato members would have exercised their prerogative and vetoed Ukraine becoming a member. I know America tends to assume the it is the head of the Nato alliance but no official position has been created for them in that regard. Ukraine had no Charter Five protection and yet it acted as if it did, by refusing to accept Russia's interpretation of the Minsk agreement. There was onjectively absolutely no reason to think that Russia would not invade Ukraine again. This time good and hard.

    Looks like Ukrainians felt that the greater danger lie from incursions from Russia than from the West, and you know, they were right:
     
    Hardly a very effective method they chose to stop Russia invading their country. Lets do the math. President Biden met with Ukrainian President Zelensky in September 2021.

    Ukraine's Recent Drone Strike Reignites Tensions in Donbasshttps://nationalinterest.org › feature › ukraine’s-recent-...
    31 Oct 2021 — Russia says the use of Turkish drones near the Line of Contact is a violation of the Minsk ... October 31, 2021 Topic: Ukraine Region:
     

    Russia's military build-up near Ukraine is different this time ...https://www.euronews.com › ... › My Europe Series
    6 Dec 2021 — "Compared to the situation in March and April 2021, when it last moved troops close to the Ukrainian border, [...] Gressel wrote in a recent article that the mobilisation of the National Guard units is a sign the Kremlin is at least considering incursions into Ukraine
     

    https://ecfr.eu/article/why-russia-could-invade-ukraine-again/
    An all-out invasion would certainly be costly for Moscow, in terms of not just international isolation but also loss of life and materiel. Since 2014, Ukrainians... armed forces have improved in combat readiness and effectiveness. In particular, Ukraine’s seven air assault brigades – staffed by career soldiers – are a force to be reckoned with. And its mechanised forces performed well in recent clashes in Donbas. Most of Ukraine’s military infrastructure remains in the west, a legacy of the cold war. Accordingly, even a quick initial Russian advance would not overrun much of this infrastructure.

    This would give the West time to react in whatever manner it chose – which, in turn, would make the outcome of the war less predictable and controllable for Russia. However, one can only guess whether Putin believes there is a credible chance of a substantive Western reaction.
     

    See, Ukraine has not done any better than would be expected. Putin has shown a lot more will than anyone though possible. The only person who believed there was any protective credibility in a the idea of a shooting war military reaction by the West to a Russian invasion of all Ukraine was Zelinsky, who just happened to be totally unqualified by experience or training for the position that the Ukrainian people saw fit to put him in. Now we will all be paying more for basic necessities. Thanks!
    , @Barbarossa
    @Mr. Hack


    NATO was simply waiting for public opinion in Ukraine to become more favorable towards inclusion
     
    Not to beat a dead horse some more, but isn't that statement basically making the case for the rationality of the Russian point? If Ukraine and NATO were always intending to bring Ukraine under the umbrella, why should Russia just allow that to happen and why would Russia believe it would stop there? Would it have been so hard to declare NATO membership off the table for Ukraine?

    There seems to be an element of the self-fulfilling prophecy here by NATO creating conditions which are plainly not tolerable to the Russian State's stated self interest and then declaring that military reaction from Russia justifies NATO's strategy all along. If Russian assessments of the situation are wrong and NATO is not essentially a permanent anti-Russian bloc than why couldn't a diplomatic situation been reached? From my position in the US the official government position on negotiations with Russia has always clearly been an insulting, "my way or the highway" tack which gives no credence to Russia's position at all.

    As I think I've made clear in the past, I regard the Ukrainian war to be a catastrophe and am hardly a Putin triumphalist, but I do believe that Russia is acting in a "rational" way on the geopolitical stage if one accepts the logic of realpolitik.

    As Sean's original comment lays out, it's hard to imagine how else Putin could have interpreted Western attitudes than to infer hostility.

    Replies: @Sean, @Mr. Hack

  89. @Barbarossa
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    My Mom is, bless her heart, not much of a cook and my Dad is a picky eater, so the fare growing up tended to be very meat and potatoes. Sometimes literally just meat and potatoes, as with a dish optimistically called "Hamburg Gravy" which consisted of plain ground beef sauteed with salt and pepper and plain boiled potatoes. On the side was often canned creamed corn. I really hated "Hamburg Gravy" days as a kid.

    I'm not sure why anyone would choose to serve slimy boiled potatoes when they are so good mashed with lots of butter and garlic or crisped with lard in a skillet.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    Boiled potatoes can taste great if you use the right kind and top them with the right accoutrements. There seems to have occurred a real revolution in the type of potatoes that reach the consumers plate today, at least here in the States. I almost always buy a type called “Yukon gold” or yellows nowadays. They’re a small, tasty little spud that almost taste like they’ve been genetically engineered to include butter in its taste profile. The outer layer needs little washing, indeed I never peel them. They cook up quickly and all they need is a little black pepper on top, and my favorite topping, sour cream and finely diced dill. Delicious!

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Mr. Hack

    I think the problem with my Mom's approach was that she peeled the potatoes before she boiled them which made them very clammy, and that she was using the very mealy white potatoes. I do love salt potatoes and a small scale organic farmer uses part of my land to grow potatoes, so I always get as many as we can eat. He always has several varieties going. I fully agree on the sour cream and dill! It's a good thing it's almost dinner time with this kind of talk!

    Replies: @utu

    , @Jmaie
    @Mr. Hack


    Boiled potatoes can taste great if you use the right kind
     
    A German friend occasionally bitches about being able to find maybe six varieties of potatoes here, whereas in Germany there are 100+.
  90. @Mr. Hack
    @Sean

    NATO was simply waiting for public opinion in Ukraine to become more favorable towards inclusion. It was growing more and more every year and is probably at 100% favorable at this time. Looks like Ukrainians felt that the greater danger lie from incursions from Russia than from the West, and you know, they were right:


    when powerful countries claim the right to invade other countries and topple their governments based on imagined scenarios that they declare unacceptable, they make the world an even more dangerous place. Whatever Putin’s apprehensions about NATO, they do not justify his unprovoked assault on Ukraine, to say nothing of the Russian army’s wanton attacks on civilians.
     

    Replies: @Sean, @Barbarossa

    NATO was simply waiting for public opinion in Ukraine to become more favorable towards inclusion

    No, no. It does not matter what Ukrainians think; they have no more right to join Nato that Russia does. Several Nato members would have exercised their prerogative and vetoed Ukraine becoming a member. I know America tends to assume the it is the head of the Nato alliance but no official position has been created for them in that regard. Ukraine had no Charter Five protection and yet it acted as if it did, by refusing to accept Russia’s interpretation of the Minsk agreement. There was onjectively absolutely no reason to think that Russia would not invade Ukraine again. This time good and hard.

    Looks like Ukrainians felt that the greater danger lie from incursions from Russia than from the West, and you know, they were right:

    Hardly a very effective method they chose to stop Russia invading their country. Lets do the math. President Biden met with Ukrainian President Zelensky in September 2021.

    Ukraine’s Recent Drone Strike Reignites Tensions in Donbasshttps://nationalinterest.org › feature › ukraine’s-recent-…
    31 Oct 2021 — Russia says the use of Turkish drones near the Line of Contact is a violation of the Minsk … October 31, 2021 Topic: Ukraine Region:

    Russia’s military build-up near Ukraine is different this time …https://www.euronews.com › … › My Europe Series
    6 Dec 2021 — “Compared to the situation in March and April 2021, when it last moved troops close to the Ukrainian border, […] Gressel wrote in a recent article that the mobilisation of the National Guard units is a sign the Kremlin is at least considering incursions into Ukraine

    https://ecfr.eu/article/why-russia-could-invade-ukraine-again/
    An all-out invasion would certainly be costly for Moscow, in terms of not just international isolation but also loss of life and materiel. Since 2014, Ukrainians… armed forces have improved in combat readiness and effectiveness. In particular, Ukraine’s seven air assault brigades – staffed by career soldiers – are a force to be reckoned with. And its mechanised forces performed well in recent clashes in Donbas. Most of Ukraine’s military infrastructure remains in the west, a legacy of the cold war. Accordingly, even a quick initial Russian advance would not overrun much of this infrastructure.

    This would give the West time to react in whatever manner it chose – which, in turn, would make the outcome of the war less predictable and controllable for Russia. However, one can only guess whether Putin believes there is a credible chance of a substantive Western reaction.

    See, Ukraine has not done any better than would be expected. Putin has shown a lot more will than anyone though possible. The only person who believed there was any protective credibility in a the idea of a shooting war military reaction by the West to a Russian invasion of all Ukraine was Zelinsky, who just happened to be totally unqualified by experience or training for the position that the Ukrainian people saw fit to put him in. Now we will all be paying more for basic necessities. Thanks!

  91. @German_reader
    @songbird


    Am no fan of the South African government, but seems entirely rational from their perspective to want a multipolar world, without necessarily attributing it to animus.
     
    Sure, but they're definitely no less hypocrites than Western elites. They like to declare their solidarity with Palestinians and other victims of Western imperialism, but obviously don't care about Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which is definitely one of the more egregious breaches of international law in recent decades.

    Replies: @Beckow, @songbird

    …one of the more egregious breaches of international law in recent decades.

    One of about 4 or 5, all of the other ones were done by the NATO countries. Sure, you and some others ‘denounced‘ it (what does that even mean?). There were no consequences and most of the wars have been memory-holed by the Western media.

    We have two nuclear power plants. I remember around the time when we were joining EU we got a few hundred European demonstrators (‘greens‘) coming over to tell us to shut them down immediately. Some were from France and Sweden. We had an argument with a group of Swedes about it, we asked why don’t they demonstrate at home. Their response: “we do, but the energy lobby, consumers, blabla…it is complex, nobody listens.” So instead they came to us, Czechia, Bulgaria to preach their virtues. This is the same. Don’t be surprised if we find your weird sudden discovery of virtues and peace-at-any-cost non-convincing. It is hypocrisy.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Beckow


    We had an argument with a group of Swedes about it, we asked why don’t they demonstrate at home. Their response: “we do, but the energy lobby, consumers, blabla…it is complex, nobody listens.”
     
    Isn't the Slovakian government now sending Warsaw pact-era air defense systems to Ukraine? So it doesn't seem to listen to people like you either.

    Replies: @Beckow

  92. @Mr. Hack
    @Barbarossa

    Boiled potatoes can taste great if you use the right kind and top them with the right accoutrements. There seems to have occurred a real revolution in the type of potatoes that reach the consumers plate today, at least here in the States. I almost always buy a type called "Yukon gold" or yellows nowadays. They're a small, tasty little spud that almost taste like they've been genetically engineered to include butter in its taste profile. The outer layer needs little washing, indeed I never peel them. They cook up quickly and all they need is a little black pepper on top, and my favorite topping, sour cream and finely diced dill. Delicious!

    https://image.shutterstock.com/image-photo/raw-yukon-gold-potatoes-on-260nw-57322951.jpg

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Jmaie

    I think the problem with my Mom’s approach was that she peeled the potatoes before she boiled them which made them very clammy, and that she was using the very mealy white potatoes. I do love salt potatoes and a small scale organic farmer uses part of my land to grow potatoes, so I always get as many as we can eat. He always has several varieties going. I fully agree on the sour cream and dill! It’s a good thing it’s almost dinner time with this kind of talk!

    • Replies: @utu
    @Barbarossa

    Your mom was correct. Except that most likely she overcooked them and perhaps used wrong kind of potatoes not the best for boiled potatoes dish.

    Unpeeled potatoes are boiled for other dishes. After cooking you let them cool off and then you peel them nad (1) you use them for potato salad by dicing or German potato salad by slicing or (2) for fried potatoes, perfect for hash browns for breakfast. Or for Jewish potato salad (knish filling) when you peel them while still hot (this part is difficult) and then mash them with chopped onions so onions partially cook but still remains sharp.

    Unpeeled boiled potatoes and peeled boiled potatoes taste very different and have different consistency. Partly because peeled potatoes after cooking evaporate a lot of it moisture while the unpeeled let the moisture condense back in potato which makes them more dense.

    Peeled cooked potatoes is an exquisite dish when made form right potatoes. The flavor of potatoes can be enjoyed the most which is not distorted by excessive taste altering thermal processing (like frying) or additives (like in mashed potatoes) or by the hint of skin flavor like in baked potatoes.

    However we live in the age of excess of food processing and strong additives which makes us lose ability to enjoy more subtle flavors. The popularity of hot sauces and BBQ sauces is really a curse which 'primitivizes' our senses. It is hard to go back to enjoying pure unaltered flavors.

    Traumas caused by bad home cooking can be overcome. My grandma's spinach trauma lasted till I went to college away form home and once very reluctantly tried spinach pure at my friend's home. Then I learned that spinach pure can be really good.

    Replies: @iffen

  93. @Barbarossa
    @AaronB

    Here is one you might like if you'd care to read it. I know I'm preaching to the choir with this, but oh well. As you can see, the discussions that happen around here end up circling back to my writing in some form often times.

    https://wellsvillesun.com/blog/2022/02/15/sean-hyland-column-consumer-or-creator/

    Replies: @AaronB

    Thanks!

    I read it – I agree with pretty much all of it and it’s very well expressed and well developed.

    You’re a great writer and we need more people like you getting these positive alternative messages out there into our local communities.

    It’s good work, and increasingly I think we all have a responsibility to assist in cultural transformation – and contra Dmitry, I think these things have a huge impact!

    I plan on beginning projects of this kind this year, that assist in cultural transformation and present a different view of what life can be like – for myself, I plan on doing YouTube videos of my wilderness camping and exploration, and tying it into Taoist, early Christian (I’m not Christian but I think early Christian spirituality has a deep message for our times, Desert Fathers, etc), and general spiritual themes that relate to wildness.

    I hope to feature some of the ancient wilderness poetry of China, which is too little known in the West. Unlike Western poetry, it’s extremely direct and simple, and celebrates the wild in a lyrical way.

    Incidentally, for some reason I thought you were out West, in Utah or something, but I now remember that’s Mikel, who lives by the beautiful Wasatch range iirc. I hope Mikel is doing well in his beautiful Mountain Kingdom. But I am pleased to see you are far from the corruption of NYC 🙂

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @AaronB

    Thanks. I agree with your points on the importance of local cultural transformation, and am glad to hear that you are thinking about action in that direction too. It's funny you mention Taoism and early Christianity in the same sentence. I have an affinity to the Tao Teh Ching and have often though that with a different syntax it would fit right in to the Gospels. It especially has similarities to something like the non-canonical Gospel of Thomas. If you haven't read that, I think you would appreciate it.

    Do you have any links to some examples of Chinese wilderness poetry? I did a quick search but couldn't come up with the poems themselves just references to collections of the poetry.

    You may be amused to hear that the local print paper I'm in also has columns from a local Zen Buddhist on his religion and the travel memories of a former NYT travel writer, to name a few. All in all, it's an eclectic mix.

    I keep my stuff in the local papers for a couple of reasons. One is that my writing is not really national material caliber, at least not at this point. The other is that it's very idiosyncratic in terms of topic. I don't have any interest in having a shtick, and I write about whatever I feel like. The local papers are very tolerant that way and are happy to have material that is decently written despite the fact that it is often outside the mainstream and sometimes controversial. It's also kind of nice to hear feedback from my neighbors and other locals who I deal with in other ways.

    I'm far enough from NYC, but my Mom's side of the family is from Long Island so I'm quite familiar with it. I did a job out in South Hampton last fall, so I had to go out that way and I took my oldest daughter out to see the city last year as well. I see they dropped all the vax passport stuff so that makes things easier. All in all, New York was about how I remembered it though I was somewhat surprised by how aggressively the Pride stuff had saturated the city. It felt very performative. My brother is out in Oregon, and it was quite spectacular when I went out to visit him. We camped and hiked all around St. Helens and Hood for a week. Where I am is not so spectacular, but it is a very good place with good people.

    , @Mikel
    @AaronB


    I plan on doing YouTube videos of my wilderness camping and exploration, and tying it into Taoist, early Christian ... and general spiritual themes that relate to wildness.
     
    I hope you'll let us know when you do, Aaron.

    With WW III having become a common theme of the daily headlines, who knows what future will bring. But as a friend living in Poland recently told me, 'even if I knew that the world was ending tomorrow, I would still plant a tree' (he was paraphrasing MLK, I think).
  94. The Russians have now responded to western provocation by adding music to their videos!

  95. @Mr. Hack
    @Sean

    NATO was simply waiting for public opinion in Ukraine to become more favorable towards inclusion. It was growing more and more every year and is probably at 100% favorable at this time. Looks like Ukrainians felt that the greater danger lie from incursions from Russia than from the West, and you know, they were right:


    when powerful countries claim the right to invade other countries and topple their governments based on imagined scenarios that they declare unacceptable, they make the world an even more dangerous place. Whatever Putin’s apprehensions about NATO, they do not justify his unprovoked assault on Ukraine, to say nothing of the Russian army’s wanton attacks on civilians.
     

    Replies: @Sean, @Barbarossa

    NATO was simply waiting for public opinion in Ukraine to become more favorable towards inclusion

    Not to beat a dead horse some more, but isn’t that statement basically making the case for the rationality of the Russian point? If Ukraine and NATO were always intending to bring Ukraine under the umbrella, why should Russia just allow that to happen and why would Russia believe it would stop there? Would it have been so hard to declare NATO membership off the table for Ukraine?

    There seems to be an element of the self-fulfilling prophecy here by NATO creating conditions which are plainly not tolerable to the Russian State’s stated self interest and then declaring that military reaction from Russia justifies NATO’s strategy all along. If Russian assessments of the situation are wrong and NATO is not essentially a permanent anti-Russian bloc than why couldn’t a diplomatic situation been reached? From my position in the US the official government position on negotiations with Russia has always clearly been an insulting, “my way or the highway” tack which gives no credence to Russia’s position at all.

    As I think I’ve made clear in the past, I regard the Ukrainian war to be a catastrophe and am hardly a Putin triumphalist, but I do believe that Russia is acting in a “rational” way on the geopolitical stage if one accepts the logic of realpolitik.

    As Sean’s original comment lays out, it’s hard to imagine how else Putin could have interpreted Western attitudes than to infer hostility.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Barbarossa

    https://youtu.be/hqbEE4uboNk?t=155
    As the former Defence Minister in the 90's says, European countries never had any intention of giving Ukraine the Charter Five protection of Nato membership that was goven to other eastern European countries, because it would be committing Nato to fight with Ukraine in a war with Russia that was thought all too likely. Bush pushed the lunatic 2008 declaration that Ukraine would someday be a member, but the European counties still had a veto over actual membership and the chance of Russia going ahead and attacking Ukraine even i it was a full Nato member with Charter Five protection was considered much too great.

    Ukraine never had Charter Five protection, but by not accepting Russia's interpretation of the Misk accords, Ukraine was acting as if Nato had Ukraine's back. The Europeans understood that Russia was not going to be so easily intimidated by a Ukrainian President getting a few weapons and a meeting with a POTUS. Zelinsky is the least qualified person ever to lead a county, and within a few years of him taking office, ten million are internally displaced, 4 million have left the country as refugees, and the enemy are at the gates of his capital.

    Replies: @LondonBob

    , @Mr. Hack
    @Barbarossa

    It all boils down to two different countries, two different peoples having different perceived needs and projections for the future. As Ukraine's focus had been (and still is) joining the EU, joining NATO made more long term sense. Also, you had a long historic enmity between the two countries, that is unfortunately on full display today for the whole world to see.

  96. @German_reader
    @sudden death

    Those self-playing Reddit videos are terrible, please put them under the MORE tag at least.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Yahya

    Those self-playing Reddit videos are terrible, please put them under the MORE tag at least.

    I thought you said you didn’t want to be moderator?

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Yahya

    That's not moderation, just pointing out a technical issue. Those videos are slowing down the thread, and might even get readers into trouble with their annoying auto-play.

  97. German_reader says:
    @Beckow
    @German_reader


    ...one of the more egregious breaches of international law in recent decades.
     
    One of about 4 or 5, all of the other ones were done by the NATO countries. Sure, you and some others 'denounced' it (what does that even mean?). There were no consequences and most of the wars have been memory-holed by the Western media.

    We have two nuclear power plants. I remember around the time when we were joining EU we got a few hundred European demonstrators ('greens') coming over to tell us to shut them down immediately. Some were from France and Sweden. We had an argument with a group of Swedes about it, we asked why don't they demonstrate at home. Their response: "we do, but the energy lobby, consumers, blabla...it is complex, nobody listens." So instead they came to us, Czechia, Bulgaria to preach their virtues. This is the same. Don't be surprised if we find your weird sudden discovery of virtues and peace-at-any-cost non-convincing. It is hypocrisy.

    Replies: @German_reader

    We had an argument with a group of Swedes about it, we asked why don’t they demonstrate at home. Their response: “we do, but the energy lobby, consumers, blabla…it is complex, nobody listens.”

    Isn’t the Slovakian government now sending Warsaw pact-era air defense systems to Ukraine? So it doesn’t seem to listen to people like you either.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @German_reader

    Touche...our current government is a collection of low-IQ clowns and provincial compradors. In their defense, they openly say that they do what they are told. And then they usually don't do it. But it is a valid point, although I was referring to NGO Swedes.

  98. Did Karlin said anything about the vigorous ukrainian resistance? Before the war he expected them to fold quickly.

  99. @Yahya
    @German_reader


    Those self-playing Reddit videos are terrible, please put them under the MORE tag at least.
     
    I thought you said you didn't want to be moderator?

    Replies: @German_reader

    That’s not moderation, just pointing out a technical issue. Those videos are slowing down the thread, and might even get readers into trouble with their annoying auto-play.

  100. @Sean
    @Triteleia Laxa

    1. The average (in the sense of vast majority) Russian soldier is not very good. I am not sure how many regular soldiers Ukraine has left. Russia generalship is incredibly careless of causalities that anyone else would consider prohibitive relative to what the Russians have available in manpower.
    2. They have very roughly got 10% of the territory and lost 10% of the men they went in with, but they have got a very strategic 10% for the loss of not terribly effective troops.
    3. Deaths in the war so far have been mainly of Russian soldiers.
    4. Not everyone wants Russia to be knocked out of the balance of power by economic sanction leaving the US in a dominant global position. Unbearable for Russia is going to make the West very uncomfortable.
    5. See 4. Also India . Couple of billion people hungry for what Russian can offer and now able to get a special low price.
    6. Encirclement is the Russian way of war.
    7.Underestimating the will of the Russians has already cost Ukraine plenty, with a long running war millions more of refugees are going to leave for the West and whatever they now say many will never return. Demographers were already saying that Ukraine was going to have too few people for it large territory, and might have to give part of the country away in a generation. Even before this war Ukrainians had identical rights of EU entry to British people: 90 days’ stay without a visa. The refugees are nice people getting a warm welcome in wealthy countries who will give them leave to remain . I think with the stuff they are now getting, the Ukrainians are going to maul and frustrate the Russians, but the phrase Pyrrhic victory comes to mind. The largest country in Europe ending this with an actual population of mid 30s million; are they going to invite in Turks?
    8. A quarter of Russian men are dead by 55, like the last two heads of the GRU.
    9. The Ukrainians are fighting well, but history shows the countries that resist with regular forces to the bitter end when invaded have had enough by the time there is a ceasefire
    10. A research fellow of Stanford University’s Hoover Institution summarized his years of research and multi tome publications: ” In a few words: there is no such thing as Soviet technology. Almost all — perhaps 90–95 percent — came directly or indirectly from the United States and its allies”. When Reagan Administration came in and cut off of the technology transfers, in a incident Professor Mearsheimer noted “Marshal Nikolai Ogarkov was dismissed as the chief of the Soviet general staff in the summer of 1984 for saying publicly that Soviet industry was falling badly behind American industry, which meant that Soviet weaponry would soon be inferior to American weaponry. Russia trying to be cutting edge wouldn't work, so they can afford to lose intelligent people without affecting their real strength. Also, those people are going to be liberals anyway so Putin is glad to see the back of them
    11.


    The following is the text of the U.S.-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership signed by U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Washington, D.C. on November 10, 2021.

    The United States and Ukraine:

    Reaffirm the importance of our relationship as friends and strategic partners, based both on our shared values and common interests, including a commitment to a Europe that is whole, free, democratic, and at peace. Reiterate that the strategic partnership existing between our two nations is critical for the security of Ukraine and Europe as a whole.
     

    Zelinsky seems to have counted on this and his being the first Ukrainian president to secure a meeting with a POTUS to
    deter the Russians. Russia had already suffered a defeat in 2008 with the future Nato announcement and again in 2021 when for the first time a Potus agreed to meet the Ukrainian president. It simply was not acceptable for Russia to have Ukraine as America's sidekick, and Russia made no secret of that.
    12.Millions of Russians live in Ukraine, especially the East of the country, and the political class in Kiev twice (2004 and 2014) overthrew by street demonstration a Russia friendly and democratically elected President from the Russian speaking community with strong support there who had got enough Ukrainian speakers to vote for him to win. That sounds like integral nationalism to me. Not German integral nationalism (AKA Nazism) to be sure, but a Ukrainian variety.
    13. Russia did not count on Ukraine changing the spelling of it' capital city making it impossible to find! It will take about a week or two to reduce the defended urban area of Kiev, starting at the outside and moving in to the centre. The howitzer ammunition is not there yet.
    14. Russian conscripts being hunted like hares by Ukrainians with advanced American technology is not going to endear Ukraine to Russians.
    15. Poland did not just give Ukraine the fighter planes, it tried to get them sent via a Nato base. Sounds like Poland is trying to start a wider war.
    32. America has not yet started to fight on Ukraine's side and they are not going to. Anyone could see that if and when it came down to it, Ukraine would be standing alone in a bloody battle of wills fought on Ukraine's territory not Russia's. It is a crime that Zelinsky became president.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Brás Cubas, @SimplePseudonymicHandle

    Your reply reeks of desperation. There is not a single point that is worth addressing. You and the other replyguys are cringe.

    Wokechoke is less cringe than you though. He just has no idea about how to evaluate a military campaign. He seems to think it is a computer game where you collect resources, construct armies and order them into battle through clicks.

    He’s a dumb child, but you’re either lying through your teeth or deep in a pit of denial. Perhaps you’re secretly Vladimir Putin. Only such a ridiculous level of self-delusion can explain why he hasn’t found a way out of this disaster yet. True catastrophe is impending for the Russian army and, without a hasty withdrawal, it will be as remembered as Agincourt and for the same reasons.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Triteleia Laxa


    True catastrophe is impending for the Russian army and, without a hasty withdrawal, it will be as remembered as Agincourt and for the same reasons
     
    But that is not going to help Ukrainians live their best life, because before an army of 200,000 Russians is destroyed, something pretty unpleasant will have happened to Ukraine. The war is being fought across their country.
    , @utu
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Sean's trolling is always very dense and very dark. Often laced with dark insinuations and even with hints of physical threats (e.g. you are wrong because if you were right CIA or Mossad or KGB would have killed you). There is strong fetish of power in his writing and Jewish or rather Israel's power in particular.

    Actually the support Putin gets among the rightoids as seen at unz-dot-com who have no Russian connections to large extent comes form the power fetish which is more common on the right end of the spectrum. I would hope they would get cured from it once Pootie-Poot gets his ass kicked but they will just shift to another fantasy action hero.

    But the dominant reason is being propagandized for years that the US, the West are doomed, unfixable and evil and that somewhere beyond the ocean is there a lone and brave man who rides bare chested on bears and fights the evils of the West.

    And to be fair there are some libertarian useful idiots among them who believe in the fantasy of isolationism as if we were still living in the steam age of the 19th century and communicating by smoke signals.

    Replies: @Sean, @Brás Cubas, @Mark G.

  101. @Barbarossa
    @Mr. Hack


    NATO was simply waiting for public opinion in Ukraine to become more favorable towards inclusion
     
    Not to beat a dead horse some more, but isn't that statement basically making the case for the rationality of the Russian point? If Ukraine and NATO were always intending to bring Ukraine under the umbrella, why should Russia just allow that to happen and why would Russia believe it would stop there? Would it have been so hard to declare NATO membership off the table for Ukraine?

    There seems to be an element of the self-fulfilling prophecy here by NATO creating conditions which are plainly not tolerable to the Russian State's stated self interest and then declaring that military reaction from Russia justifies NATO's strategy all along. If Russian assessments of the situation are wrong and NATO is not essentially a permanent anti-Russian bloc than why couldn't a diplomatic situation been reached? From my position in the US the official government position on negotiations with Russia has always clearly been an insulting, "my way or the highway" tack which gives no credence to Russia's position at all.

    As I think I've made clear in the past, I regard the Ukrainian war to be a catastrophe and am hardly a Putin triumphalist, but I do believe that Russia is acting in a "rational" way on the geopolitical stage if one accepts the logic of realpolitik.

    As Sean's original comment lays out, it's hard to imagine how else Putin could have interpreted Western attitudes than to infer hostility.

    Replies: @Sean, @Mr. Hack

    As the former Defence Minister in the 90’s says, European countries never had any intention of giving Ukraine the Charter Five protection of Nato membership that was goven to other eastern European countries, because it would be committing Nato to fight with Ukraine in a war with Russia that was thought all too likely. Bush pushed the lunatic 2008 declaration that Ukraine would someday be a member, but the European counties still had a veto over actual membership and the chance of Russia going ahead and attacking Ukraine even i it was a full Nato member with Charter Five protection was considered much too great.

    Ukraine never had Charter Five protection, but by not accepting Russia’s interpretation of the Misk accords, Ukraine was acting as if Nato had Ukraine’s back. The Europeans understood that Russia was not going to be so easily intimidated by a Ukrainian President getting a few weapons and a meeting with a POTUS. Zelinsky is the least qualified person ever to lead a county, and within a few years of him taking office, ten million are internally displaced, 4 million have left the country as refugees, and the enemy are at the gates of his capital.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    @Sean

    Ukraine was to all purposes except chapter five a NATO country, the Americans even selected their government members.

    Anyway this conflict is about more than just Ukraine but is really a US-Russia conflict.

  102. @Barbarossa
    @Mr. Hack

    I think the problem with my Mom's approach was that she peeled the potatoes before she boiled them which made them very clammy, and that she was using the very mealy white potatoes. I do love salt potatoes and a small scale organic farmer uses part of my land to grow potatoes, so I always get as many as we can eat. He always has several varieties going. I fully agree on the sour cream and dill! It's a good thing it's almost dinner time with this kind of talk!

    Replies: @utu

    Your mom was correct. Except that most likely she overcooked them and perhaps used wrong kind of potatoes not the best for boiled potatoes dish.

    Unpeeled potatoes are boiled for other dishes. After cooking you let them cool off and then you peel them nad (1) you use them for potato salad by dicing or German potato salad by slicing or (2) for fried potatoes, perfect for hash browns for breakfast. Or for Jewish potato salad (knish filling) when you peel them while still hot (this part is difficult) and then mash them with chopped onions so onions partially cook but still remains sharp.

    Unpeeled boiled potatoes and peeled boiled potatoes taste very different and have different consistency. Partly because peeled potatoes after cooking evaporate a lot of it moisture while the unpeeled let the moisture condense back in potato which makes them more dense.

    Peeled cooked potatoes is an exquisite dish when made form right potatoes. The flavor of potatoes can be enjoyed the most which is not distorted by excessive taste altering thermal processing (like frying) or additives (like in mashed potatoes) or by the hint of skin flavor like in baked potatoes.

    However we live in the age of excess of food processing and strong additives which makes us lose ability to enjoy more subtle flavors. The popularity of hot sauces and BBQ sauces is really a curse which ‘primitivizes’ our senses. It is hard to go back to enjoying pure unaltered flavors.

    Traumas caused by bad home cooking can be overcome. My grandma’s spinach trauma lasted till I went to college away form home and once very reluctantly tried spinach pure at my friend’s home. Then I learned that spinach pure can be really good.

    • Thanks: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @iffen
    @utu

    when made form right potatoes.

    What do they taste like if made from commie left potatoes?

    Replies: @utu

  103. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Sean

    Your reply reeks of desperation. There is not a single point that is worth addressing. You and the other replyguys are cringe.

    Wokechoke is less cringe than you though. He just has no idea about how to evaluate a military campaign. He seems to think it is a computer game where you collect resources, construct armies and order them into battle through clicks.

    He's a dumb child, but you're either lying through your teeth or deep in a pit of denial. Perhaps you're secretly Vladimir Putin. Only such a ridiculous level of self-delusion can explain why he hasn't found a way out of this disaster yet. True catastrophe is impending for the Russian army and, without a hasty withdrawal, it will be as remembered as Agincourt and for the same reasons.

    Replies: @Sean, @utu

    True catastrophe is impending for the Russian army and, without a hasty withdrawal, it will be as remembered as Agincourt and for the same reasons

    But that is not going to help Ukrainians live their best life, because before an army of 200,000 Russians is destroyed, something pretty unpleasant will have happened to Ukraine. The war is being fought across their country.

  104. @Sean
    @Barbarossa

    https://youtu.be/hqbEE4uboNk?t=155
    As the former Defence Minister in the 90's says, European countries never had any intention of giving Ukraine the Charter Five protection of Nato membership that was goven to other eastern European countries, because it would be committing Nato to fight with Ukraine in a war with Russia that was thought all too likely. Bush pushed the lunatic 2008 declaration that Ukraine would someday be a member, but the European counties still had a veto over actual membership and the chance of Russia going ahead and attacking Ukraine even i it was a full Nato member with Charter Five protection was considered much too great.

    Ukraine never had Charter Five protection, but by not accepting Russia's interpretation of the Misk accords, Ukraine was acting as if Nato had Ukraine's back. The Europeans understood that Russia was not going to be so easily intimidated by a Ukrainian President getting a few weapons and a meeting with a POTUS. Zelinsky is the least qualified person ever to lead a county, and within a few years of him taking office, ten million are internally displaced, 4 million have left the country as refugees, and the enemy are at the gates of his capital.

    Replies: @LondonBob

    Ukraine was to all purposes except chapter five a NATO country, the Americans even selected their government members.

    Anyway this conflict is about more than just Ukraine but is really a US-Russia conflict.

  105. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Sean

    Your reply reeks of desperation. There is not a single point that is worth addressing. You and the other replyguys are cringe.

    Wokechoke is less cringe than you though. He just has no idea about how to evaluate a military campaign. He seems to think it is a computer game where you collect resources, construct armies and order them into battle through clicks.

    He's a dumb child, but you're either lying through your teeth or deep in a pit of denial. Perhaps you're secretly Vladimir Putin. Only such a ridiculous level of self-delusion can explain why he hasn't found a way out of this disaster yet. True catastrophe is impending for the Russian army and, without a hasty withdrawal, it will be as remembered as Agincourt and for the same reasons.

    Replies: @Sean, @utu

    Sean’s trolling is always very dense and very dark. Often laced with dark insinuations and even with hints of physical threats (e.g. you are wrong because if you were right CIA or Mossad or KGB would have killed you). There is strong fetish of power in his writing and Jewish or rather Israel’s power in particular.

    Actually the support Putin gets among the rightoids as seen at unz-dot-com who have no Russian connections to large extent comes form the power fetish which is more common on the right end of the spectrum. I would hope they would get cured from it once Pootie-Poot gets his ass kicked but they will just shift to another fantasy action hero.

    But the dominant reason is being propagandized for years that the US, the West are doomed, unfixable and evil and that somewhere beyond the ocean is there a lone and brave man who rides bare chested on bears and fights the evils of the West.

    And to be fair there are some libertarian useful idiots among them who believe in the fantasy of isolationism as if we were still living in the steam age of the 19th century and communicating by smoke signals.

    • Thanks: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Sean
    @utu

    I have already posted many proofs of the Russians' objection to Ukraine becoming allegiant to the West having begun with Putin attaining supreme power; it is not anything he thought up. Yeltsin said much the same and American diplomats reported back to Bush being unable to find any Russian, even liberal critics of Putin ones, who did not think it placed Russia in a disadvantageous position. The peccadilloes of Putin may have bearing on the timing (perhaps he had a sexual failure and felt the need to primally assert his masculinity by killing lots of people), yet the causes are much deeper than even Putin's manhood goes.

    Indeed many Western strategists thought Ukraine was not somewhere Nato or America could go boldly without provoking Russia, which (unfortunately though it may be) is the judge of its own interests, has powerful conventional forces, something like home advantage, and thermonuclear weapons essentially comparable to America's . Graham Allison and Henry Kissinger proposed Finlandisation for Ukraine, because if it tried to act like Poland then Ukraine was going to be invaded; Russia would not want to hear about the arguments, it would just invade.


    In 2004 Yanukovych had won an election and then was prevented from taking office. In 2014 Yanukovych the ethnic Russian again won a majority of Ukrainian votes, this time in office until 2014 when integral nationalists again overthrew him with demonstrations. Poroshenko said that because national security depended on “spiritual independence”, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church would no longer be part of the Russian Orthodox Church. The Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople recognised the independence of the Ukrainian Church from Moscow, which led to the Moscow Patriarchate breaking with the hitherto world spiritual authorly of Orthodoxy that Constantinople has represented since the schism with Rome and Catholicism.

    Zelinsky got elected as the anti Poroshenko by promising an end to corruption and a return of the lost territories by peaceful means. After a few years in power Zelinsky became unpopular because his administration (filled with his pals from TV) was no less corrupt than Poroshenko's At that poin Zelinsky started copying Poroshenko, who was charged with treason by Zelisky's minions, and in some ways going even further down the road of a chauvinist integral nationalism that excluded Russians as worthy members of the national community (what can be pejoratively termed Ukranazi). The Russian language media were banned, and Zelinksy was sounding very bellicose with rhetoric about ‘going on the offensive”. More that Putin, Zelinsky was surrounded by yes men including those from his comedy team he placed in charge of the intelligence services.

    Putin is a Russian and just as we can see the flaws in him , his standpoint in not without insights concerning the Wests liberal pluralism that in the Orthodox eyes looks more like coercive tolerance as a first step to selective enforcement. So there are GLBT organistation in Ukraine but the Russian president gets overthrown twice and there Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine is required to change its name.

    The idea that the West especially the US has a destiny to be the indispensable or at least unsurpassed nation was based on the idea that only liberal democracy could deliver superior economic growth. That thesis has now been falsified, not by Russia but by China. The West is going to decline in relative importance in the world, lets not fast forward the process by earning the enmity of Russia, because Xi is a very subtle diplomat, one who is always thinking a few moves ahead.

    https://youtu.be/bSj__Vo1pOU?t=2942

    The modern liberal is not living in the real world, Hegel's definition was someone who is not willing to risk life and limb. The Russian are not liberals, but they have far more in common with the West than China, so let us not push Russia into a corner from where they'll begin looking East.

    , @Brás Cubas
    @utu

    I think you will like this:
    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1505578950722007040

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Yellowface Anon, @utu

    , @Mark G.
    @utu


    And to be fair there are some libertarian useful idiots among them who believe in the fantasy of isolationism as if we were still living in the steam age of the 19th century and communicating by smoke signals.
     
    You don't need to go back to the 19th century to see the U.S. not intervening in Europe. The U.S. didn't start a war with Russia when they invaded Hungary in 1956 or when they invaded Czechoslovakia in 1968.
  106. @Yevardian
    I'm going to take a break from Unz for a month or two in the next couple days, and the internet in general. I've been spending too much time obsessively following this war, and since in the end I'm totally removed from it, it starts to feel like voyeurism. Trudging through the dishonesty, intense anger and propaganda on both sides isn't really rewarding either.

    Could anybody here who reads recommend some books (fiction, essays or history), also in Russian, Spanish or even Romanian? I'm pretty familiar with Russian and English authors, but I almost know nothing about Spanish literature (read Borges and Paz, didn't like either very much, actually I enjoyed reading Eduardo Galeano's leftist tracts better).

    I'm thinking to finally read one Hillgruber's main works, although it seems most of his output has never been translated, in general if someone (utu?) might recommend some 'powerful' accounts of Europe 1918-1945 (anything like e.g. Lothrop Stoddard's 'Into the Darkness'), that aren't wally-tier revisionist garbage, I'd be thankful.

    I've also been looking (admittedly not very hard) for a detailed general history of France, something broad that isn't also just a shallow survey. It feels like an absolutely overwhelming proportion of books in English (or Russian) are about the Revolution, its background, or Napoleon, it's actually not that easy to find a balanced history that doesn't treat all French history as a leadup or aftermath of those events.

    Also wondering if there's been any major books dealing with Israel, China (last thing I read was Fenby's 'Fall and Rise of a Great Power: 1850-2009, obviously a lot changed since then), Turkey (I've only read Zürcher's book on modern Turkey), Greece (Roderick Beaton has an excellent survey, but it ends in 2007) or Russia in the past 20-30 years that avoid being hyper-partisan, or at least attempt emotional distance and objectivity? I'm close to finishing a recent (and quite acid) account of Gorbachev's presidency, Vladislav Zubok's 'Collapse', which just came out last year. So a good detailed work on the Yeltsin years to the present I'm looking for.
    Probably now would also be a good time to read a modern history of Ukraine too, I read two recently but one was a brief summary and the other was just a partisan travel account of the country post-Maidan.

    Also maybe German_Reader (did you read Barnes work on Ammianus?) could recommend any particularly interesting papers or books on Antiquity? I finished Anson's work on Eumenes, 'A Greek Among Macedonians', recently that was absolutely excellent, I'd recommend for anyone who has an interest in that period.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Beckow, @Dacian Julien Soros, @Agathoklis, @Blinky Bill, @Dmitry, @Sasu, @AP

    I gave Borges and Paz a go in the past and didn’t like them much either. I do however enjoy Garcia Marquez. If you liked Galeano and aren’t put off by Latin leftism, check out Roberto Bolano. Admittedly I don’t know a lot about Spanish language literature, but he is one of my favorite writers, period.

  107. @German_reader
    @Triteleia Laxa


    21. But look at those few African countries like Congo that didn’t condemn us. The Congolese man on the mud track is our biggest supporter.
     
    Democratic republic of Congo actually has condemned the invasion (Congo Brazzaville has abstained):
    https://www.statista.com/chart/26946/stance-on-ukraine-invasion/

    That being said, I do get the impression that there's substantial sympathy for Russia/antipathy to NATO in non-Western countries, the position taken by South Africa and India is certainly illuminating. Karlin is probably right that many see it through the lens of putting down the hated West (which makes me wish there actually was some real Western supremacy...South Africa could be punished by supporting a Boer secessionist movement against the white genocide there. Alas, only dreams).

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Thulean Friend, @Yahya

    That being said, I do get the impression that there’s substantial sympathy for Russia/antipathy to NATO in non-Western countries…. Karlin is probably right that many see it through the lens of putting down the hated West

    You’re right there is substantial sympathy for Russia in non-Western countries. But your Western-centric view (“they’re only supporting Russia to stick it to the West”) speaks to an extreme parochialism and a lack of imagination. People have other reasons for supporting Russia. Razib Khan once mentioned on Twitter that Bengalis sympathize with Russia because they remember their support for Bangladesh during the 1971 Genocide.

    https://twitter.com/razibkhan/status/1501254010048815104?s=20&t=21igLJ4klqCUykYt-2Xj6g

    Palestinians have their reasons too:

    I’d say roughly 40% support Russia, 20% support Ukraine, and 40% neither. Reasons are all over the place. One person did mention “sticking it to America” (but not the West at large) as a reason for supporting Russia, but most gave other reasons such as “Ukraine government is Jewish” or “Ukraine didn’t stand with Palestine when we needed help”. Support for Ukraine was mostly on humanitarian basis (“don’t want to see them suffer” or “they are the little guy”). The rest didn’t support Ukraine nor Russia because neither support Palestine. Others said they would like to remain neutral on the issue.

    By contrast, Israelis seem more supportive of Ukraine. Most of them cited humanitarian reasons such as “the unjust differences of force” or “they don’t deserve what’s happening to them” (ironic). But there were two Lithuanian Jews who supported Russia because “Ukrainians killed us, while Russians saved Jews during WW2”.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Yahya


    The rest didn’t support Ukraine nor Russia because neither support Palestine. Others said they would like to remain neutral on the issue.
     
    Sure, that's understandable, and given that Palestinians are an oppressed population without a state of their own they can't be expected to care all that much anyway (presumably they will care about the food shortages though that may well affect them as a result of this war). But I don't think the same can be said about Indians or South Africans.
    I read Razib's piece about this issue on his blog, wasn't impressed. Frankly, while such views may be legitimate to some extent, I just can't have much sympathy for them, because at the same time as the Soviet Union was helping all those anticolonial liberation movements in the 3rd world, they had half of Europe occupied with their stupid commie, secret police-infested dictatorships and were a constant threat to Western Europe. And since apparently everything comes down to tribalism, that's ultimately more important for me than any good the Soviets supposedly did in the 3rd world (where they also frequently supported absolutely appalling movements, it's not like America's clients were the only monsters).

    Replies: @Dmitry

    , @Blinky Bill
    @Yahya

    https://twitter.com/mokawima/status/1503475736203649028?s=20&t=rfsFqD0IcbNg93HleL8wVg

  108. @”Ron Unz” (a pseudo “Jewish” BACILLUS)

    Why R U blob of snot
    such a pathetic SOAB?

  109. @Sean
    @Triteleia Laxa

    1. The average (in the sense of vast majority) Russian soldier is not very good. I am not sure how many regular soldiers Ukraine has left. Russia generalship is incredibly careless of causalities that anyone else would consider prohibitive relative to what the Russians have available in manpower.
    2. They have very roughly got 10% of the territory and lost 10% of the men they went in with, but they have got a very strategic 10% for the loss of not terribly effective troops.
    3. Deaths in the war so far have been mainly of Russian soldiers.
    4. Not everyone wants Russia to be knocked out of the balance of power by economic sanction leaving the US in a dominant global position. Unbearable for Russia is going to make the West very uncomfortable.
    5. See 4. Also India . Couple of billion people hungry for what Russian can offer and now able to get a special low price.
    6. Encirclement is the Russian way of war.
    7.Underestimating the will of the Russians has already cost Ukraine plenty, with a long running war millions more of refugees are going to leave for the West and whatever they now say many will never return. Demographers were already saying that Ukraine was going to have too few people for it large territory, and might have to give part of the country away in a generation. Even before this war Ukrainians had identical rights of EU entry to British people: 90 days’ stay without a visa. The refugees are nice people getting a warm welcome in wealthy countries who will give them leave to remain . I think with the stuff they are now getting, the Ukrainians are going to maul and frustrate the Russians, but the phrase Pyrrhic victory comes to mind. The largest country in Europe ending this with an actual population of mid 30s million; are they going to invite in Turks?
    8. A quarter of Russian men are dead by 55, like the last two heads of the GRU.
    9. The Ukrainians are fighting well, but history shows the countries that resist with regular forces to the bitter end when invaded have had enough by the time there is a ceasefire
    10. A research fellow of Stanford University’s Hoover Institution summarized his years of research and multi tome publications: ” In a few words: there is no such thing as Soviet technology. Almost all — perhaps 90–95 percent — came directly or indirectly from the United States and its allies”. When Reagan Administration came in and cut off of the technology transfers, in a incident Professor Mearsheimer noted “Marshal Nikolai Ogarkov was dismissed as the chief of the Soviet general staff in the summer of 1984 for saying publicly that Soviet industry was falling badly behind American industry, which meant that Soviet weaponry would soon be inferior to American weaponry. Russia trying to be cutting edge wouldn't work, so they can afford to lose intelligent people without affecting their real strength. Also, those people are going to be liberals anyway so Putin is glad to see the back of them
    11.


    The following is the text of the U.S.-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership signed by U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Washington, D.C. on November 10, 2021.

    The United States and Ukraine:

    Reaffirm the importance of our relationship as friends and strategic partners, based both on our shared values and common interests, including a commitment to a Europe that is whole, free, democratic, and at peace. Reiterate that the strategic partnership existing between our two nations is critical for the security of Ukraine and Europe as a whole.
     

    Zelinsky seems to have counted on this and his being the first Ukrainian president to secure a meeting with a POTUS to
    deter the Russians. Russia had already suffered a defeat in 2008 with the future Nato announcement and again in 2021 when for the first time a Potus agreed to meet the Ukrainian president. It simply was not acceptable for Russia to have Ukraine as America's sidekick, and Russia made no secret of that.
    12.Millions of Russians live in Ukraine, especially the East of the country, and the political class in Kiev twice (2004 and 2014) overthrew by street demonstration a Russia friendly and democratically elected President from the Russian speaking community with strong support there who had got enough Ukrainian speakers to vote for him to win. That sounds like integral nationalism to me. Not German integral nationalism (AKA Nazism) to be sure, but a Ukrainian variety.
    13. Russia did not count on Ukraine changing the spelling of it' capital city making it impossible to find! It will take about a week or two to reduce the defended urban area of Kiev, starting at the outside and moving in to the centre. The howitzer ammunition is not there yet.
    14. Russian conscripts being hunted like hares by Ukrainians with advanced American technology is not going to endear Ukraine to Russians.
    15. Poland did not just give Ukraine the fighter planes, it tried to get them sent via a Nato base. Sounds like Poland is trying to start a wider war.
    32. America has not yet started to fight on Ukraine's side and they are not going to. Anyone could see that if and when it came down to it, Ukraine would be standing alone in a bloody battle of wills fought on Ukraine's territory not Russia's. It is a crime that Zelinsky became president.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Brás Cubas, @SimplePseudonymicHandle

    Agree with 1 to 12!
    Number 13 is possibly all right but I’m neither an expert nor up-to-date on the matter.
    Number 14 sounded a little off. It’s the only one to which Triteleia Laxa’s adjective “desperate” perhaps applies (but her 14 was a little silly, too).
    Number 15 diverges from the most common interpretation (Poland just wanted to dodge responsibility). Can’t say who’s correct.
    Number 32 you probably did not understand what Triteleia Laxa wrote (“we” means the Russians).

    Overall an outstanding reply!

  110. @utu
    @Barbarossa

    Your mom was correct. Except that most likely she overcooked them and perhaps used wrong kind of potatoes not the best for boiled potatoes dish.

    Unpeeled potatoes are boiled for other dishes. After cooking you let them cool off and then you peel them nad (1) you use them for potato salad by dicing or German potato salad by slicing or (2) for fried potatoes, perfect for hash browns for breakfast. Or for Jewish potato salad (knish filling) when you peel them while still hot (this part is difficult) and then mash them with chopped onions so onions partially cook but still remains sharp.

    Unpeeled boiled potatoes and peeled boiled potatoes taste very different and have different consistency. Partly because peeled potatoes after cooking evaporate a lot of it moisture while the unpeeled let the moisture condense back in potato which makes them more dense.

    Peeled cooked potatoes is an exquisite dish when made form right potatoes. The flavor of potatoes can be enjoyed the most which is not distorted by excessive taste altering thermal processing (like frying) or additives (like in mashed potatoes) or by the hint of skin flavor like in baked potatoes.

    However we live in the age of excess of food processing and strong additives which makes us lose ability to enjoy more subtle flavors. The popularity of hot sauces and BBQ sauces is really a curse which 'primitivizes' our senses. It is hard to go back to enjoying pure unaltered flavors.

    Traumas caused by bad home cooking can be overcome. My grandma's spinach trauma lasted till I went to college away form home and once very reluctantly tried spinach pure at my friend's home. Then I learned that spinach pure can be really good.

    Replies: @iffen

    when made form right potatoes.

    What do they taste like if made from commie left potatoes?

    • Replies: @utu
    @iffen

    An earnest person answer to the snarko-ironist:

    Actually, red potatoes are very good as boiled potatoes, so they are right</b potatoes. Yukon gold are also very good. Some chefs (Chef John) say that Yukon gold are the best for mashed potatoes. IMO baking potatoes (like Russet) are the best for mashed potatoes because they do not have that much water so you can add more milk or cream to them but they are lousy as boiled potatoes. The best potatoes for potato/German salad are Belgian fingerling or Russian banana potatoes but because they are small and irregular shapes they are hard to work with when peeling after boiling.

    The key point is not to overcook them for boiling potatoes and not to undercook them for mashed potatoes. The unpeeled potatoes have wide tolerance margin for overcooking but for hash browns you should slightly undercook them because you still will be frying them.

    I do not have experience with more exotic potatoes from Peru that are purple or bluish or orange. But I am sure that hipster foodies will make them popular.

    Replies: @iffen, @Philip Owen

  111. @German_reader
    @Wokechoke


    Third World populations quite clearly see the double standards of the West. Anyone like Putin willing to fight it out with Johnson or Biden has a lot of sympathy from that part of the globe.
     
    Sure, the double standards exist and I've criticized them myself in the past (maybe I shouldn't have).
    But honestly, fuck those 3rd worlders. Western Elites are replacing their white core populations at a record rate through mass immigration, dissent against it is criminalized, and yet you still get that poc "anti-colonialist" whining as if it were still 1900. It's little more than a cover for hating the white man, when he's already on the way out.
    If it were up to me (which unfortunately it isn't), these people would get a taste of real "Western supremacy". South Africa's pro-Russian stance really shows what a disastrous mistake it was to throw the Afrikaners under the bus in a futile attempt to curry favour with useless black Africans.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @songbird, @sher singh

    Listen you whiny POS how dare you have a self-preservation instinct when you support niggers & faggots?

  112. @Wokechoke
    @AP

    They’ve not been Saran wrapping anyone to lampposts, nor have they pulled their pants down to whip them with knouts, like the Ukrainian Police have been doing.

    Most of the Russophones will be released when they see a Chechen in Mariupol after what seen of the police methods by the Zelenskyyites.

    Replies: @AP

    They’ve not been Saran wrapping anyone to lampposts, nor have they pulled their pants down to whip them with knouts, like the Ukrainian Police have been doing.

    Traditionally, in time so war people who were caught looting were shot. This is more humane. |I don’t think police are doing that though. I suspect that because it is a war the police are too busy to deal with such petty crimes, so vigilantes do this.

    Most of the Russophones will be released when they see a Chechen in Mariupol after what seen of the police methods by the Zelenskyyites

    Why do you imply that Russophones are petty thieves and looters, who have to fear being tied to a pole? What do you have against Russophones?

  113. German_reader says:
    @Yahya
    @German_reader


    That being said, I do get the impression that there’s substantial sympathy for Russia/antipathy to NATO in non-Western countries.... Karlin is probably right that many see it through the lens of putting down the hated West
     
    You're right there is substantial sympathy for Russia in non-Western countries. But your Western-centric view ("they're only supporting Russia to stick it to the West") speaks to an extreme parochialism and a lack of imagination. People have other reasons for supporting Russia. Razib Khan once mentioned on Twitter that Bengalis sympathize with Russia because they remember their support for Bangladesh during the 1971 Genocide.

    https://twitter.com/razibkhan/status/1501254010048815104?s=20&t=21igLJ4klqCUykYt-2Xj6g

    Palestinians have their reasons too:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cj3-JydZQ2I&ab_channel=CoreyGil-Shuster

    I'd say roughly 40% support Russia, 20% support Ukraine, and 40% neither. Reasons are all over the place. One person did mention "sticking it to America" (but not the West at large) as a reason for supporting Russia, but most gave other reasons such as "Ukraine government is Jewish" or "Ukraine didn't stand with Palestine when we needed help". Support for Ukraine was mostly on humanitarian basis ("don't want to see them suffer" or "they are the little guy"). The rest didn't support Ukraine nor Russia because neither support Palestine. Others said they would like to remain neutral on the issue.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XUETRzPJ5Y&ab_channel=CoreyGil-Shuster

    By contrast, Israelis seem more supportive of Ukraine. Most of them cited humanitarian reasons such as "the unjust differences of force" or "they don't deserve what's happening to them" (ironic). But there were two Lithuanian Jews who supported Russia because "Ukrainians killed us, while Russians saved Jews during WW2".

    Replies: @German_reader, @Blinky Bill

    The rest didn’t support Ukraine nor Russia because neither support Palestine. Others said they would like to remain neutral on the issue.

    Sure, that’s understandable, and given that Palestinians are an oppressed population without a state of their own they can’t be expected to care all that much anyway (presumably they will care about the food shortages though that may well affect them as a result of this war). But I don’t think the same can be said about Indians or South Africans.
    I read Razib’s piece about this issue on his blog, wasn’t impressed. Frankly, while such views may be legitimate to some extent, I just can’t have much sympathy for them, because at the same time as the Soviet Union was helping all those anticolonial liberation movements in the 3rd world, they had half of Europe occupied with their stupid commie, secret police-infested dictatorships and were a constant threat to Western Europe. And since apparently everything comes down to tribalism, that’s ultimately more important for me than any good the Soviets supposedly did in the 3rd world (where they also frequently supported absolutely appalling movements, it’s not like America’s clients were the only monsters).

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @German_reader

    It's not like a third world people, have a luxury to carefully consider different historical arguments for their opinion.

    They might have heard a few rumors of different countries and this is the extent of their knowledge. It's kind of like word association, or people asking you for unknown items on a menu of exotic recipes. People will choose the country which you had heard something better or worse about. Then back to work in the field or the factory.


    apparently everything comes down to tribalism, that’s ultimately more important for me than any good the Soviets supposedly did

     

    It is only strange, when you see educated people behave like this. If we are rickshaw drivers in Mumbai (probably our next life), then I'm not sure how much time you would have for Socratic discussions about truth and objectivity. For slumdogs, probably asking if something was good for us or bad for us, is the more practical question about politics.

    Replies: @German_reader

  114. @Yevardian
    I'm going to take a break from Unz for a month or two in the next couple days, and the internet in general. I've been spending too much time obsessively following this war, and since in the end I'm totally removed from it, it starts to feel like voyeurism. Trudging through the dishonesty, intense anger and propaganda on both sides isn't really rewarding either.

    Could anybody here who reads recommend some books (fiction, essays or history), also in Russian, Spanish or even Romanian? I'm pretty familiar with Russian and English authors, but I almost know nothing about Spanish literature (read Borges and Paz, didn't like either very much, actually I enjoyed reading Eduardo Galeano's leftist tracts better).

    I'm thinking to finally read one Hillgruber's main works, although it seems most of his output has never been translated, in general if someone (utu?) might recommend some 'powerful' accounts of Europe 1918-1945 (anything like e.g. Lothrop Stoddard's 'Into the Darkness'), that aren't wally-tier revisionist garbage, I'd be thankful.

    I've also been looking (admittedly not very hard) for a detailed general history of France, something broad that isn't also just a shallow survey. It feels like an absolutely overwhelming proportion of books in English (or Russian) are about the Revolution, its background, or Napoleon, it's actually not that easy to find a balanced history that doesn't treat all French history as a leadup or aftermath of those events.

    Also wondering if there's been any major books dealing with Israel, China (last thing I read was Fenby's 'Fall and Rise of a Great Power: 1850-2009, obviously a lot changed since then), Turkey (I've only read Zürcher's book on modern Turkey), Greece (Roderick Beaton has an excellent survey, but it ends in 2007) or Russia in the past 20-30 years that avoid being hyper-partisan, or at least attempt emotional distance and objectivity? I'm close to finishing a recent (and quite acid) account of Gorbachev's presidency, Vladislav Zubok's 'Collapse', which just came out last year. So a good detailed work on the Yeltsin years to the present I'm looking for.
    Probably now would also be a good time to read a modern history of Ukraine too, I read two recently but one was a brief summary and the other was just a partisan travel account of the country post-Maidan.

    Also maybe German_Reader (did you read Barnes work on Ammianus?) could recommend any particularly interesting papers or books on Antiquity? I finished Anson's work on Eumenes, 'A Greek Among Macedonians', recently that was absolutely excellent, I'd recommend for anyone who has an interest in that period.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Beckow, @Dacian Julien Soros, @Agathoklis, @Blinky Bill, @Dmitry, @Sasu, @AP

    Cortazar is enjoyable, if you like “magical realism.”

  115. @iffen
    @utu

    when made form right potatoes.

    What do they taste like if made from commie left potatoes?

    Replies: @utu

    An earnest person answer to the snarko-ironist:

    Actually, red potatoes are very good as boiled potatoes, so they are right</b potatoes. Yukon gold are also very good. Some chefs (Chef John) say that Yukon gold are the best for mashed potatoes. IMO baking potatoes (like Russet) are the best for mashed potatoes because they do not have that much water so you can add more milk or cream to them but they are lousy as boiled potatoes. The best potatoes for potato/German salad are Belgian fingerling or Russian banana potatoes but because they are small and irregular shapes they are hard to work with when peeling after boiling.

    The key point is not to overcook them for boiling potatoes and not to undercook them for mashed potatoes. The unpeeled potatoes have wide tolerance margin for overcooking but for hash browns you should slightly undercook them because you still will be frying them.

    I do not have experience with more exotic potatoes from Peru that are purple or bluish or orange. But I am sure that hipster foodies will make them popular.

    • Replies: @iffen
    @utu

    Actually, red potatoes are very good as boiled potatoes, so they are right</b potatoes.

    To be precise, red "Arsh" potatoes, unpeeled, freshly dug, (hours, not days) are supreme when boiled and served with English peas or just as good sliced and baked in butter.

    , @Philip Owen
    @utu

    Maris Piper, does everything.

  116. @Barbarossa
    @Mr. Hack


    NATO was simply waiting for public opinion in Ukraine to become more favorable towards inclusion
     
    Not to beat a dead horse some more, but isn't that statement basically making the case for the rationality of the Russian point? If Ukraine and NATO were always intending to bring Ukraine under the umbrella, why should Russia just allow that to happen and why would Russia believe it would stop there? Would it have been so hard to declare NATO membership off the table for Ukraine?

    There seems to be an element of the self-fulfilling prophecy here by NATO creating conditions which are plainly not tolerable to the Russian State's stated self interest and then declaring that military reaction from Russia justifies NATO's strategy all along. If Russian assessments of the situation are wrong and NATO is not essentially a permanent anti-Russian bloc than why couldn't a diplomatic situation been reached? From my position in the US the official government position on negotiations with Russia has always clearly been an insulting, "my way or the highway" tack which gives no credence to Russia's position at all.

    As I think I've made clear in the past, I regard the Ukrainian war to be a catastrophe and am hardly a Putin triumphalist, but I do believe that Russia is acting in a "rational" way on the geopolitical stage if one accepts the logic of realpolitik.

    As Sean's original comment lays out, it's hard to imagine how else Putin could have interpreted Western attitudes than to infer hostility.

    Replies: @Sean, @Mr. Hack

    It all boils down to two different countries, two different peoples having different perceived needs and projections for the future. As Ukraine’s focus had been (and still is) joining the EU, joining NATO made more long term sense. Also, you had a long historic enmity between the two countries, that is unfortunately on full display today for the whole world to see.

  117. @Beckow
    @AP

    You are caught up in the minutia. Chechens are a net plus for the Russian side. In 2000-2005 'experts' predicted that Chechnia will never be subdued, a permanent bloody conflict, etc... What happened? These expert predictions are self-serving bs and as always the Western media is chock-full of them. Don't buy it, think for yourself.

    You took a 40-60 guess that Kiev will win. It depends on how we define a win: if there is no NATO in Ukraine, Donbass separates, and Russia controls the Black See coast - who won? Paraphrasing Pyrrha after he "beat" the Romans: "one more win and there will be no Ukraine."

    You boast that the Ukie army has not collapsed. First, it is early, one month into it, most wars are 3-6 months affairs or longer. Disciplined armies don't collapse, soldiers have lack of agency and know less than we do: it is dangerous to surrender and most fighting is sporadic, why risk anything? They should stay alive, they are dying for nothing, for a piece of paper and others' deluded propaganda. Nobody will look back in pride at these pointless sacrifices. Why die in Donbass, are they going to move there after the war? They care so much for what language is used there? To die for a principle that NATO be free to in theory place missiles there at some point in the future - this is madness, literally one of the dumbest wars in history.

    You are wrong about the supersonics, it happened and it can happen again. Like a Don Quichotte stuck with an obsessive idea fixee you double down on hope. Hope is the emotion we experience when we are losing. Maybe you are waiting for the Polish (NATO) cavalry to reverse Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and march into Galicia. It could happen, but then what? It would put a stake in Ukraine as a country or trigger a miscalculation and we all perish. Why is it so hard to convince people to just live. Don't do the dirty work for others, they don't care that much for you.

    Replies: @AP

    You took a 40-60 guess that Kiev will win. It depends on how we define a win: if there is no NATO in Ukraine, Donbass separates, and Russia controls the Black See coast – who won?

    I was quite clear in saying that a Ukrainian win would mean that Russia gives up, is forced to leave because the losses become unsustainable and gets much less than what it wants (no more than status quo ante bellum plus perhaps a face saving NATO denial). Ukraine still gets EU integration, militarization, and gets rebuilt with Russian reparation money (confiscated assets?). War has brought Ukraine together and has thoroughly de-Russified it in loyalty and identity.

    I’d guess 40% chance of this happening.

    60% chance of one of various types of losses, from mild (further territory loss, no NATO but EU integration okay) to worse (all of Putin’s prewar conditions) to catastrophic (full occupation, either as annexation or under puppet regime – practically no difference between the two).

    You boast that the Ukie army has not collapsed. First, it is early, one month into it, most wars are 3-6 months affairs or longer.

    Karlin gave a 90% chance of collapse within one week, 40% within 2 days. Apparently Putin’s leadership tea assumed the same. I don’t recall if you gave specific timeline but you implied something similar.

    France fell to Germany in 6 weeks. Poland fell to Germany in 5 weeks. Iraq fell to the USA in 5 weeks.

    In 3 days it will have been 4 weeks. And Russia has already slowed down; it’s been stopped in the north and east and has made small gains in the south. I don’t recall if either Germany or the USA slowed down in their invasions, I suspect not. Russia has already wasted much of its elite paratrooper and spetznaz units, too, so it won’t be getting easier for them.

    Nobody will look back in pride at these pointless sacrifices.

    Nonsense, people tend to celebrate their brave fighters, even and often especially in lost battles. Remember the Alamo? The Serbian Field of he Blackbirds? Failed Warsaw Uprising? Brest Fortress? If, as is sadly likely, Mariupol falls it might fall into that category.

    • Replies: @Greasy William
    @AP


    I’d guess 40% chance of this happening.
     
    What?! No way. "Victory" for Ukraine means surviving as an independent state, ala Finland in the Winter War. No way Putin gives back any significant amount of his newly conquered territory.

    Ukraine still gets EU integration
     
    That's a non starter. Why would Putin ever agree to that?

    France fell to Germany in 6 weeks.
     
    If the French had fought the way the Ukrainians had, they would have held out indefinitely. A big part of Russia's problem is that they thought the Ukrainians were going to take them head on.


    Overall, the Ukrainian performance has been brilliant and the Russian performance has been bad, but it does appear that the RuA is adjusting. I'm assuming the goal right now is to take Mariupol and Kharkov, then encircle the Donbas, then conquer Odessa and then finally encircle Kiev to force a ceasefire. But the only ceasefire I could see Putin agreeing to is he keeps eastern Ukraine and Ukraine agrees to no EU and to partial demilitarization. I can't see Putin agreeing to halt the fighting for anything less than that. He needs a clear victory or he is literally a dead man.

    Replies: @AP

    , @Beckow
    @AP


    ...Russia gives up, is forced to leave...gets much less than what it wants - no more than status quo ante bellum plus perhaps a face saving NATO denial
     
    That almost exactly describes the last 3 or 4 US wars: Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Vietnam...a string of losses. Somehow we don't see headlines like: "Catastrophic US losses continue. Third war in a row is lost. The world questions US military capabilities..." Why is that? The West doesn't have the freedom to call things as they are. They don't even seem to understand consistency.

    You give that 40%, looks high, I would say 10-15%. About the same as a NATO-Poland intervention from the West and a big boom that may follow. I would not mark that as a win for either side.

    I implied a lot of things, they mostly turned out to be true, but it is a continuum and I never thought this would be quick. Wars are lengthy affairs. It took at least a 2-month build-up and Ukraine is a very big country, larger than France, Iraq, etc...


    ...people tend to celebrate their brave fighters, even and often especially in lost battles. Remember the Alamo?...
     
    Alamo was a lost battle in a war that Texans won immediately after that. Mariupol is different. It looks like Ukraine will not be in Mariupol, the 'brave fighters' there - let's just call them that - will disappear and be remembered remotely, probably more in Winnipeg than in Kiev.

    You have ideals, but you miss the realities of life and history: winning matters. In wars all sides cheat, lie, say anything to advance their cause. But wars eventually end and people have to live. I have watched videos from the war zone, incl. Mariupol. People show determined neutrality, don't take sides, don't denounce. They repeat that they want the war to be over - there is a very ambiguous attitude toward Kiev-Zelensky, often an accusation that they failed, brought this on and don't know what to do. Most people wait to see who prevails and will then accommodate.

  118. @utu
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Sean's trolling is always very dense and very dark. Often laced with dark insinuations and even with hints of physical threats (e.g. you are wrong because if you were right CIA or Mossad or KGB would have killed you). There is strong fetish of power in his writing and Jewish or rather Israel's power in particular.

    Actually the support Putin gets among the rightoids as seen at unz-dot-com who have no Russian connections to large extent comes form the power fetish which is more common on the right end of the spectrum. I would hope they would get cured from it once Pootie-Poot gets his ass kicked but they will just shift to another fantasy action hero.

    But the dominant reason is being propagandized for years that the US, the West are doomed, unfixable and evil and that somewhere beyond the ocean is there a lone and brave man who rides bare chested on bears and fights the evils of the West.

    And to be fair there are some libertarian useful idiots among them who believe in the fantasy of isolationism as if we were still living in the steam age of the 19th century and communicating by smoke signals.

    Replies: @Sean, @Brás Cubas, @Mark G.

    I have already posted many proofs of the Russians’ objection to Ukraine becoming allegiant to the West having begun with Putin attaining supreme power; it is not anything he thought up. Yeltsin said much the same and American diplomats reported back to Bush being unable to find any Russian, even liberal critics of Putin ones, who did not think it placed Russia in a disadvantageous position. The peccadilloes of Putin may have bearing on the timing (perhaps he had a sexual failure and felt the need to primally assert his masculinity by killing lots of people), yet the causes are much deeper than even Putin’s manhood goes.

    Indeed many Western strategists thought Ukraine was not somewhere Nato or America could go boldly without provoking Russia, which (unfortunately though it may be) is the judge of its own interests, has powerful conventional forces, something like home advantage, and thermonuclear weapons essentially comparable to America’s . Graham Allison and Henry Kissinger proposed Finlandisation for Ukraine, because if it tried to act like Poland then Ukraine was going to be invaded; Russia would not want to hear about the arguments, it would just invade.

    In 2004 Yanukovych had won an election and then was prevented from taking office. In 2014 Yanukovych the ethnic Russian again won a majority of Ukrainian votes, this time in office until 2014 when integral nationalists again overthrew him with demonstrations. Poroshenko said that because national security depended on “spiritual independence”, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church would no longer be part of the Russian Orthodox Church. The Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople recognised the independence of the Ukrainian Church from Moscow, which led to the Moscow Patriarchate breaking with the hitherto world spiritual authorly of Orthodoxy that Constantinople has represented since the schism with Rome and Catholicism.

    Zelinsky got elected as the anti Poroshenko by promising an end to corruption and a return of the lost territories by peaceful means. After a few years in power Zelinsky became unpopular because his administration (filled with his pals from TV) was no less corrupt than Poroshenko’s At that poin Zelinsky started copying Poroshenko, who was charged with treason by Zelisky’s minions, and in some ways going even further down the road of a chauvinist integral nationalism that excluded Russians as worthy members of the national community (what can be pejoratively termed Ukranazi). The Russian language media were banned, and Zelinksy was sounding very bellicose with rhetoric about ‘going on the offensive”. More that Putin, Zelinsky was surrounded by yes men including those from his comedy team he placed in charge of the intelligence services.

    Putin is a Russian and just as we can see the flaws in him , his standpoint in not without insights concerning the Wests liberal pluralism that in the Orthodox eyes looks more like coercive tolerance as a first step to selective enforcement. So there are GLBT organistation in Ukraine but the Russian president gets overthrown twice and there Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine is required to change its name.

    The idea that the West especially the US has a destiny to be the indispensable or at least unsurpassed nation was based on the idea that only liberal democracy could deliver superior economic growth. That thesis has now been falsified, not by Russia but by China. The West is going to decline in relative importance in the world, lets not fast forward the process by earning the enmity of Russia, because Xi is a very subtle diplomat, one who is always thinking a few moves ahead.

    The modern liberal is not living in the real world, Hegel’s definition was someone who is not willing to risk life and limb. The Russian are not liberals, but they have far more in common with the West than China, so let us not push Russia into a corner from where they’ll begin looking East.

  119. The Banderites are showing their true faces. I smell their desperation.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Aedib


    If real.
     
    The part of the internet where we all get to argue about who is the real Nazi is fast becoming an uninteresting fraction.

    Did anybody read the newlinks entry on Olena Semenyaka? She was a big discussion item a couple years ago on AK's blog. The main topic of debate was is she hot or not? I didn't have an opinion because I had no idea who she was. As I recall the consensus was she was definitely hot back when she was 25 years old but she smoked a ton of cigarettes and drank tanker loads of vodka and had aged badly. Google image search is flailing for a current photograph.

    Replies: @Aedib

    , @AP
    @Aedib

    Lips don't match speech.

  120. @AaronB
    @Barbarossa

    Thanks!

    I read it - I agree with pretty much all of it and it's very well expressed and well developed.

    You're a great writer and we need more people like you getting these positive alternative messages out there into our local communities.

    It's good work, and increasingly I think we all have a responsibility to assist in cultural transformation - and contra Dmitry, I think these things have a huge impact!

    I plan on beginning projects of this kind this year, that assist in cultural transformation and present a different view of what life can be like - for myself, I plan on doing YouTube videos of my wilderness camping and exploration, and tying it into Taoist, early Christian (I'm not Christian but I think early Christian spirituality has a deep message for our times, Desert Fathers, etc), and general spiritual themes that relate to wildness.

    I hope to feature some of the ancient wilderness poetry of China, which is too little known in the West. Unlike Western poetry, it's extremely direct and simple, and celebrates the wild in a lyrical way.

    Incidentally, for some reason I thought you were out West, in Utah or something, but I now remember that's Mikel, who lives by the beautiful Wasatch range iirc. I hope Mikel is doing well in his beautiful Mountain Kingdom. But I am pleased to see you are far from the corruption of NYC :)

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Mikel

    Thanks. I agree with your points on the importance of local cultural transformation, and am glad to hear that you are thinking about action in that direction too. It’s funny you mention Taoism and early Christianity in the same sentence. I have an affinity to the Tao Teh Ching and have often though that with a different syntax it would fit right in to the Gospels. It especially has similarities to something like the non-canonical Gospel of Thomas. If you haven’t read that, I think you would appreciate it.

    Do you have any links to some examples of Chinese wilderness poetry? I did a quick search but couldn’t come up with the poems themselves just references to collections of the poetry.

    You may be amused to hear that the local print paper I’m in also has columns from a local Zen Buddhist on his religion and the travel memories of a former NYT travel writer, to name a few. All in all, it’s an eclectic mix.

    I keep my stuff in the local papers for a couple of reasons. One is that my writing is not really national material caliber, at least not at this point. The other is that it’s very idiosyncratic in terms of topic. I don’t have any interest in having a shtick, and I write about whatever I feel like. The local papers are very tolerant that way and are happy to have material that is decently written despite the fact that it is often outside the mainstream and sometimes controversial. It’s also kind of nice to hear feedback from my neighbors and other locals who I deal with in other ways.

    I’m far enough from NYC, but my Mom’s side of the family is from Long Island so I’m quite familiar with it. I did a job out in South Hampton last fall, so I had to go out that way and I took my oldest daughter out to see the city last year as well. I see they dropped all the vax passport stuff so that makes things easier. All in all, New York was about how I remembered it though I was somewhat surprised by how aggressively the Pride stuff had saturated the city. It felt very performative. My brother is out in Oregon, and it was quite spectacular when I went out to visit him. We camped and hiked all around St. Helens and Hood for a week. Where I am is not so spectacular, but it is a very good place with good people.

  121. @AP
    @Beckow


    You took a 40-60 guess that Kiev will win. It depends on how we define a win: if there is no NATO in Ukraine, Donbass separates, and Russia controls the Black See coast – who won?
     
    I was quite clear in saying that a Ukrainian win would mean that Russia gives up, is forced to leave because the losses become unsustainable and gets much less than what it wants (no more than status quo ante bellum plus perhaps a face saving NATO denial). Ukraine still gets EU integration, militarization, and gets rebuilt with Russian reparation money (confiscated assets?). War has brought Ukraine together and has thoroughly de-Russified it in loyalty and identity.

    I'd guess 40% chance of this happening.

    60% chance of one of various types of losses, from mild (further territory loss, no NATO but EU integration okay) to worse (all of Putin's prewar conditions) to catastrophic (full occupation, either as annexation or under puppet regime - practically no difference between the two).

    You boast that the Ukie army has not collapsed. First, it is early, one month into it, most wars are 3-6 months affairs or longer.
     
    Karlin gave a 90% chance of collapse within one week, 40% within 2 days. Apparently Putin's leadership tea assumed the same. I don't recall if you gave specific timeline but you implied something similar.

    France fell to Germany in 6 weeks. Poland fell to Germany in 5 weeks. Iraq fell to the USA in 5 weeks.

    In 3 days it will have been 4 weeks. And Russia has already slowed down; it's been stopped in the north and east and has made small gains in the south. I don't recall if either Germany or the USA slowed down in their invasions, I suspect not. Russia has already wasted much of its elite paratrooper and spetznaz units, too, so it won't be getting easier for them.

    Nobody will look back in pride at these pointless sacrifices.
     
    Nonsense, people tend to celebrate their brave fighters, even and often especially in lost battles. Remember the Alamo? The Serbian Field of he Blackbirds? Failed Warsaw Uprising? Brest Fortress? If, as is sadly likely, Mariupol falls it might fall into that category.

    Replies: @Greasy William, @Beckow

    I’d guess 40% chance of this happening.

    What?! No way. “Victory” for Ukraine means surviving as an independent state, ala Finland in the Winter War. No way Putin gives back any significant amount of his newly conquered territory.

    Ukraine still gets EU integration

    That’s a non starter. Why would Putin ever agree to that?

    France fell to Germany in 6 weeks.

    If the French had fought the way the Ukrainians had, they would have held out indefinitely. A big part of Russia’s problem is that they thought the Ukrainians were going to take them head on.

    Overall, the Ukrainian performance has been brilliant and the Russian performance has been bad, but it does appear that the RuA is adjusting. I’m assuming the goal right now is to take Mariupol and Kharkov, then encircle the Donbas, then conquer Odessa and then finally encircle Kiev to force a ceasefire. But the only ceasefire I could see Putin agreeing to is he keeps eastern Ukraine and Ukraine agrees to no EU and to partial demilitarization. I can’t see Putin agreeing to halt the fighting for anything less than that. He needs a clear victory or he is literally a dead man.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Greasy William


    I’d guess 40% chance of this happening.

    What?! No way. “Victory” for Ukraine means surviving as an independent state, ala Finland in the Winter War. No way Putin gives back any significant amount of his newly conquered territory.
     
    Victory for Ukraine would be Russia running out of men and equipment, leaving, and making peace. They would not leave large fortified cities they own because Ukraine doesn't have the means for such an operation but they would leave the countryside they have taken.

    Ukraine still gets EU integration

    That’s a non starter. Why would Putin ever agree to that?
     
    He wouldn't now. If he loses a lot more soldiers and the war becomes hopeless he might.

    I’m assuming the goal right now is to take Mariupol and Kharkov, then encircle the Donbas, then conquer Odessa and then finally encircle Kiev to force a ceasefire.
     
    Russia committed about 200,000 ground troops (including Donbas militia) to this operation. It has already lost a few thousand killed, double or triple that injured, heavily skewed towards elite troops (paratroopers and spetznaz) and hasn't yet stormed any large city (if/when Mariupol falls it will be the first, but it is only 1/3 the size of Kharkiv and 1/2 the size of Odessa). Ukraine started the war with 200,000 soldiers but because of Russia's inability to take much of the country quickly, has mobilized another 100,000-200,000 of its veteran reserves (who don't need much more training) plus another 100,000 territorial defense troops, who are undergoing training.

    With these numbers, I don't see how Russia will be able to meet all the goals you described. It can probably finally take Mariupol, has a good but by no means certain chance of eventually taking Kharkiv before running out of men and equipment.

    What a tragic, unnecessary and stupid debacle.

    Here is a pessimistic view of Russia's predicament by a Polish analyst who several years ago predicted Russia's invasion this year:

    https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/wojna-rosja-ukraina-putinowi-zalezalo-na-trzech-kwestiach/bjzv7ns
  122. @china-russia-all-the-way
    @Dmitry

    The shares owned by the Chinese firm that were frozen by the Ukrainian government will be unfrozen by the Novorossiya government. I hope to see: the factory will be reconstructed and modernized and employ many thousands becoming a lodestar for Novorossiya high tech exports. The US will impose sanctions on Novorossiya similar to Crimea making it difficult to finance the reconstruction and upgrade of the factory. Where there is a will there will be a way. I'm sure a bank dedicated to Novorossiya transactions will be created in China to support reconstruction financing.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    I wrote who cares about reconstructing some factory, when thousands of people have been killed (that will not be easily “reconstructed”). I’m not sure your reply to my comment would pass a Turing test.

  123. @German_reader
    @Yahya


    The rest didn’t support Ukraine nor Russia because neither support Palestine. Others said they would like to remain neutral on the issue.
     
    Sure, that's understandable, and given that Palestinians are an oppressed population without a state of their own they can't be expected to care all that much anyway (presumably they will care about the food shortages though that may well affect them as a result of this war). But I don't think the same can be said about Indians or South Africans.
    I read Razib's piece about this issue on his blog, wasn't impressed. Frankly, while such views may be legitimate to some extent, I just can't have much sympathy for them, because at the same time as the Soviet Union was helping all those anticolonial liberation movements in the 3rd world, they had half of Europe occupied with their stupid commie, secret police-infested dictatorships and were a constant threat to Western Europe. And since apparently everything comes down to tribalism, that's ultimately more important for me than any good the Soviets supposedly did in the 3rd world (where they also frequently supported absolutely appalling movements, it's not like America's clients were the only monsters).

    Replies: @Dmitry

    It’s not like a third world people, have a luxury to carefully consider different historical arguments for their opinion.

    They might have heard a few rumors of different countries and this is the extent of their knowledge. It’s kind of like word association, or people asking you for unknown items on a menu of exotic recipes. People will choose the country which you had heard something better or worse about. Then back to work in the field or the factory.

    apparently everything comes down to tribalism, that’s ultimately more important for me than any good the Soviets supposedly did

    It is only strange, when you see educated people behave like this. If we are rickshaw drivers in Mumbai (probably our next life), then I’m not sure how much time you would have for Socratic discussions about truth and objectivity. For slumdogs, probably asking if something was good for us or bad for us, is the more practical question about politics.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Dmitry


    It is only strange, when you see educated people behave like this.
     
    Educated people don't seem to be all that different, they just come up with more elaborate rationalizations.
    (and yeah, I know, I shouldn't complain given the sometimes extreme nature of my views, I'm hardly innocent of such tendencies myself.)

    Replies: @Dmitry, @sher singh

  124. German_reader says:
    @Dmitry
    @German_reader

    It's not like a third world people, have a luxury to carefully consider different historical arguments for their opinion.

    They might have heard a few rumors of different countries and this is the extent of their knowledge. It's kind of like word association, or people asking you for unknown items on a menu of exotic recipes. People will choose the country which you had heard something better or worse about. Then back to work in the field or the factory.


    apparently everything comes down to tribalism, that’s ultimately more important for me than any good the Soviets supposedly did

     

    It is only strange, when you see educated people behave like this. If we are rickshaw drivers in Mumbai (probably our next life), then I'm not sure how much time you would have for Socratic discussions about truth and objectivity. For slumdogs, probably asking if something was good for us or bad for us, is the more practical question about politics.

    Replies: @German_reader

    It is only strange, when you see educated people behave like this.

    Educated people don’t seem to be all that different, they just come up with more elaborate rationalizations.
    (and yeah, I know, I shouldn’t complain given the sometimes extreme nature of my views, I’m hardly innocent of such tendencies myself.)

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @German_reader

    Perhaps true in most cases, unfortunately. But the writing of educated people like professors, is usually only interesting to the extent it is able to achieve more objectivity than exists in the normal kitchen talk. Humanities professors' writing should not be so different from things like science writing or instruction booklets, engineering textbooks, etc. It's only valuable how it matches to an objective or at least intersubjective reality, and can extract from the author's e.g. mood at the time or some particular self-interest.

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    , @sher singh
    @German_reader

    Third world hatred stems from the correct perception that you offer poison.
    What you give the world is AIDS, Abortion & Gay Marriage.

    Western values are disgusting, and most of the world views you like this: not that they're any better,

    https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/mobile/000/039/321/american-in-europe.jpg

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    Replies: @Barbarossa

  125. @Aedib
    The Banderites are showing their true faces. I smell their desperation.

    https://twitter.com/paunenpassant/status/1505681526641598467

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @AP

    If real.

    The part of the internet where we all get to argue about who is the real Nazi is fast becoming an uninteresting fraction.

    Did anybody read the newlinks entry on Olena Semenyaka? She was a big discussion item a couple years ago on AK’s blog. The main topic of debate was is she hot or not? I didn’t have an opinion because I had no idea who she was. As I recall the consensus was she was definitely hot back when she was 25 years old but she smoked a ton of cigarettes and drank tanker loads of vodka and had aged badly. Google image search is flailing for a current photograph.

    • Replies: @Aedib
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    Mediterranean girls age better than Slavic ones.

  126. @Thulean Friend
    @German_reader


    I get the impression there’s substantial sympathy for Russia/antipathy to NATO in non-Western countries, the position taken by South Africa and India is certainly illuminating. [...] many see it through the lens of putting down the hated West
     
    No, it's just pragmatism. Indians for e.g. don't see why a war in Europe should concern them. They need Russia for gas, oil and weapons. Why set aside national interest because whitoids are having internal squabbles? Doesn't seem to make much sense. Similar attitudes are prevalent in many different non-Western countries.

    Indians don't hate the West, many would like to move here. In India, most hatred is reserved for the Mughals and the various moslem rulers. British India is not remembered fondly, but most can compartamentalise and understand that you need to seperate history with the present. Such luxuries are not afforded to moslems living in India.

    It's not just a question of material selfishness either (e.g. being nice to be able to get in). An Indian film festival recently refused to select a film to send to the Oscars since it was deemed as "anti-British", even as it tried to deal with life under the Raj. There was no material gain to be had from that, if anything it'd make more sense to stoke white guilt.

    I think the kind of anti-white animus - which is real, and which needs to be acknowledged - that is encouraged in the Western media only has an effect on domestic minorities because many feel alienated to begin with. If you'd travel to most third world countries you'd be shocked how well people treat you.

    I'm only half-joking when I say that the last stand of white supremacy will be in Asia. Sometimes that can get ugly, such as anti-black racism since colorism is widespread.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Dream

    I was reading in the main Indian media sites in English in the last 10 minutes and they seem to be supporting neutrality for their national interest, while supporting Ukraine for their emotional view.

    Today main opinion of The Hindu. They are saying it’s difficult to be neutral, although they think India needs to try neutral.
    https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/mounting-pressure-the-hindu-editorial-on-why-india-should-keep-its-options-open-on-ukraine/article65243546.ece

    In Times of India. “And while Russia has not made things easy with its unjustifiable Ukraine invasion, India shouldn’t be compromising its strategic autonomy in trade. The latter isn’t a matter of how India should view the Ukraine war. It is a geoeconomic strategy commensurate with India’s position in the global order today.”
    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-editorials/buy-russian-oil-europe-is-buying-russian-energy-india-should-too-and-think-deeper-on-strategic-trade-autonomy/

    Indians don’t hate the West, many would like to move here. In India, most hatred is reserved for the Mughals

    I think Indians have a negative political attitude to England, as a former colony. But Hindu Indians seem to mainly just dislike Muslims, or mainly Pakistan.

    Another feature of Indian media, is obsession for Israel (unlike Pakistan). They have selected Israel as their positive economic development model, probably as they view it as a third world democracy that transitions economic categories.

    You can see WION (India’s BBC World News) reporting the war in Ukraine through an angle of Zionist immigration policy. A high proportion of WION’s uploads about Ukraine, related to this, strangely.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXSlZ5j3T0E.

    alienated to begin with. If you’d travel to most third world countries you’d be shocked how well people treat you.

    Has anyone tested the claim that in Pakistan they give white and Chinese people free things randomly?

  127. @Mr. Hack
    @Barbarossa

    Boiled potatoes can taste great if you use the right kind and top them with the right accoutrements. There seems to have occurred a real revolution in the type of potatoes that reach the consumers plate today, at least here in the States. I almost always buy a type called "Yukon gold" or yellows nowadays. They're a small, tasty little spud that almost taste like they've been genetically engineered to include butter in its taste profile. The outer layer needs little washing, indeed I never peel them. They cook up quickly and all they need is a little black pepper on top, and my favorite topping, sour cream and finely diced dill. Delicious!

    https://image.shutterstock.com/image-photo/raw-yukon-gold-potatoes-on-260nw-57322951.jpg

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Jmaie

    Boiled potatoes can taste great if you use the right kind

    A German friend occasionally bitches about being able to find maybe six varieties of potatoes here, whereas in Germany there are 100+.

  128. @German_reader
    @Dmitry


    It is only strange, when you see educated people behave like this.
     
    Educated people don't seem to be all that different, they just come up with more elaborate rationalizations.
    (and yeah, I know, I shouldn't complain given the sometimes extreme nature of my views, I'm hardly innocent of such tendencies myself.)

    Replies: @Dmitry, @sher singh

    Perhaps true in most cases, unfortunately. But the writing of educated people like professors, is usually only interesting to the extent it is able to achieve more objectivity than exists in the normal kitchen talk. Humanities professors’ writing should not be so different from things like science writing or instruction booklets, engineering textbooks, etc. It’s only valuable how it matches to an objective or at least intersubjective reality, and can extract from the author’s e.g. mood at the time or some particular self-interest.

    • Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Dmitry

    Re PRC media. It is very heterodox:

    - Google translate works very well now for Chinese (which has exceedingly simple grammar, unlike Japanese)

    - I agree with china-russia-all-the-way that Twitter is good resource. Getting a VPN is trivial in PRC and there are a lot of vloggers based within PRC.

    - I would follow this Chinese vlogger who provides translatable-captions. He lives in Germany and has a German husband. He's pro-PRC and critical of US and German MSM. And has been fairly neutral on Ukraine conflict. This episode he's speaking on (I'm using only Google and made no changes):


    感谢这面镜子 给中国预演 让中国少走弯路 | 只有中美拥有真正的数字主权

    Thanks to this mirror for rehearsing for China, so that China can avoid detours | Only China and the United States have true digital sovereignty

     

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysmpSAwcchY

    - There are a lot of anti-PRC media obviously, Epoch Times (Falun Gong) is basically the mirror-image of Xinhua.

    - There's a beautiful Russia girl named Katyusha who has a Mandarin speaking channel. She's very pro-Russia and anti-US. Here's video about how Russians are dealing with sanctions haha--
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gy07fElTTgo

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms, @Barbarossa, @Dmitry, @sher singh

  129. @Aedib
    The Banderites are showing their true faces. I smell their desperation.

    https://twitter.com/paunenpassant/status/1505681526641598467

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @AP

    Lips don’t match speech.

  130. Last thread LondonBob speculated about how the current round of lockdowns in China “aids” the Russian war effort. Since they are locking down all the most open areas investment wise, could that be a warning signal for foreign investors to start divesting, and offering them an clear way out before Brandon dials up illegitimate sanctions on China?

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    @Yellowface Anon

    I just think they use lockdowns to apply pressure on the US, remind them of their supply chain vulnerability, knowing the US really has no other alternatives. This is a theory Luke Gromen has, I agree with it, more plausible than zero covid fanaticism. I actually think sanctions on China are increasingly likely, as crazy as it sounds. Also I wonder how much China is now contemplating a move on Taiwan, I suspect that is far more likely.

    https://www.indianpunchline.com/china-sees-parallel-between-ukraine-taiwan/

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Yellowface Anon, @A123

  131. @Barbarossa
    @songbird

    OT

    As a fellow Celt, I thought you might appreciate the satire I wrote for St. Patrick's day.

    https://wellsvillesun.com/blog/2022/03/19/the-root-of-offense/

    I originally wrote it a few years ago, but I'm also putting my pieces in some other local papers so I re-ran it. Strangely enough, it seems less satirical all the time!

    Replies: @AaronB, @Emil Nikola Richard, @songbird

    Thanks, that was funny! The end of it reminds me of this multicult potluck lunch we had in elementary school. The Irish soda bread I brought was not popular. LOL. TBH, I don’t like it myself – especially when it has caraway seeds. I saw black pudding being made once, and will never forget it.

    Actually, had the big family feast today, corned beef and cabbage.

    BTW, one of my unrealized, minor life goals is to taste the lumper – the old variety of potato that was common in Ireland before the famine.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @songbird

    I was just reading that the lumper has been brought back from near extinction. I'm not sure if you can get it on this side of the pond though. It actually looks like it would grow great in the heavy soil I have here. I may look and see if I can get seed potatoes to give it a whirl, since I'm planning on getting potatoes in the ground this spring. I'll let you know if it happens.

    My girls have a good recipe for soda bread, but I have had some which were pretty uninspiring. I've never had it with caraway seeds so I can't vouch for that. We do love bannock with lots of fresh butter especially though!

  132. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @songbird

    Apparently Elon Musk has challenged Vladimir Putin to a fight or a duel or something. Anyway I read some of the Ukraine drones used the starlink.

    The stock market is betting big time on Musk but I am not.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/musks-combat-challenge-putin-prompts-mockery-russia-2022-03-16/

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @songbird

    I saw that. Pretty clownish.

    But maybe I would be the same if I were such a big celebrity, with my own cult?

  133. @Yahya
    @German_reader


    That being said, I do get the impression that there’s substantial sympathy for Russia/antipathy to NATO in non-Western countries.... Karlin is probably right that many see it through the lens of putting down the hated West
     
    You're right there is substantial sympathy for Russia in non-Western countries. But your Western-centric view ("they're only supporting Russia to stick it to the West") speaks to an extreme parochialism and a lack of imagination. People have other reasons for supporting Russia. Razib Khan once mentioned on Twitter that Bengalis sympathize with Russia because they remember their support for Bangladesh during the 1971 Genocide.

    https://twitter.com/razibkhan/status/1501254010048815104?s=20&t=21igLJ4klqCUykYt-2Xj6g

    Palestinians have their reasons too:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cj3-JydZQ2I&ab_channel=CoreyGil-Shuster

    I'd say roughly 40% support Russia, 20% support Ukraine, and 40% neither. Reasons are all over the place. One person did mention "sticking it to America" (but not the West at large) as a reason for supporting Russia, but most gave other reasons such as "Ukraine government is Jewish" or "Ukraine didn't stand with Palestine when we needed help". Support for Ukraine was mostly on humanitarian basis ("don't want to see them suffer" or "they are the little guy"). The rest didn't support Ukraine nor Russia because neither support Palestine. Others said they would like to remain neutral on the issue.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XUETRzPJ5Y&ab_channel=CoreyGil-Shuster

    By contrast, Israelis seem more supportive of Ukraine. Most of them cited humanitarian reasons such as "the unjust differences of force" or "they don't deserve what's happening to them" (ironic). But there were two Lithuanian Jews who supported Russia because "Ukrainians killed us, while Russians saved Jews during WW2".

    Replies: @German_reader, @Blinky Bill

    • LOL: Yahya
  134. @German_reader
    @Beckow


    We had an argument with a group of Swedes about it, we asked why don’t they demonstrate at home. Their response: “we do, but the energy lobby, consumers, blabla…it is complex, nobody listens.”
     
    Isn't the Slovakian government now sending Warsaw pact-era air defense systems to Ukraine? So it doesn't seem to listen to people like you either.

    Replies: @Beckow

    Touche…our current government is a collection of low-IQ clowns and provincial compradors. In their defense, they openly say that they do what they are told. And then they usually don’t do it. But it is a valid point, although I was referring to NGO Swedes.

  135. @German_reader
    @songbird


    Am no fan of the South African government, but seems entirely rational from their perspective to want a multipolar world, without necessarily attributing it to animus.
     
    Sure, but they're definitely no less hypocrites than Western elites. They like to declare their solidarity with Palestinians and other victims of Western imperialism, but obviously don't care about Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which is definitely one of the more egregious breaches of international law in recent decades.

    Replies: @Beckow, @songbird

    If anything, I’d maybe look at it in the other direction and marvel at how many might be perceived to be puppet states. (Or, maybe, I’m too cynical?)

    I did once hear a white South African say that he thought Botswana was run from London, for decades.

    Anyway, if it is a true observation, then it would make the end of colonialism kind of ironic. The foreign policy is the same, but the domestic functionality seems a lot lower, in many cases.

    • Agree: sher singh
  136. AP says:
    @Greasy William
    @AP


    I’d guess 40% chance of this happening.
     
    What?! No way. "Victory" for Ukraine means surviving as an independent state, ala Finland in the Winter War. No way Putin gives back any significant amount of his newly conquered territory.

    Ukraine still gets EU integration
     
    That's a non starter. Why would Putin ever agree to that?

    France fell to Germany in 6 weeks.
     
    If the French had fought the way the Ukrainians had, they would have held out indefinitely. A big part of Russia's problem is that they thought the Ukrainians were going to take them head on.


    Overall, the Ukrainian performance has been brilliant and the Russian performance has been bad, but it does appear that the RuA is adjusting. I'm assuming the goal right now is to take Mariupol and Kharkov, then encircle the Donbas, then conquer Odessa and then finally encircle Kiev to force a ceasefire. But the only ceasefire I could see Putin agreeing to is he keeps eastern Ukraine and Ukraine agrees to no EU and to partial demilitarization. I can't see Putin agreeing to halt the fighting for anything less than that. He needs a clear victory or he is literally a dead man.

    Replies: @AP

    I’d guess 40% chance of this happening.

    What?! No way. “Victory” for Ukraine means surviving as an independent state, ala Finland in the Winter War. No way Putin gives back any significant amount of his newly conquered territory.

    Victory for Ukraine would be Russia running out of men and equipment, leaving, and making peace. They would not leave large fortified cities they own because Ukraine doesn’t have the means for such an operation but they would leave the countryside they have taken.

    Ukraine still gets EU integration

    That’s a non starter. Why would Putin ever agree to that?

    He wouldn’t now. If he loses a lot more soldiers and the war becomes hopeless he might.

    I’m assuming the goal right now is to take Mariupol and Kharkov, then encircle the Donbas, then conquer Odessa and then finally encircle Kiev to force a ceasefire.

    Russia committed about 200,000 ground troops (including Donbas militia) to this operation. It has already lost a few thousand killed, double or triple that injured, heavily skewed towards elite troops (paratroopers and spetznaz) and hasn’t yet stormed any large city (if/when Mariupol falls it will be the first, but it is only 1/3 the size of Kharkiv and 1/2 the size of Odessa). Ukraine started the war with 200,000 soldiers but because of Russia’s inability to take much of the country quickly, has mobilized another 100,000-200,000 of its veteran reserves (who don’t need much more training) plus another 100,000 territorial defense troops, who are undergoing training.

    With these numbers, I don’t see how Russia will be able to meet all the goals you described. It can probably finally take Mariupol, has a good but by no means certain chance of eventually taking Kharkiv before running out of men and equipment.

    What a tragic, unnecessary and stupid debacle.

    Here is a pessimistic view of Russia’s predicament by a Polish analyst who several years ago predicted Russia’s invasion this year:

    https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/wojna-rosja-ukraina-putinowi-zalezalo-na-trzech-kwestiach/bjzv7ns

  137. @Dmitry
    @Yevardian

    Have you read Herodotus yet? I feel like I remember German Reader was going to advise us to read him.


    Spanish literature
     
    Maybe Unamuno could be interesting? I never read his books though. Probably, Mikel has a view. This is the kind of book I would look for as a souvenir in Spain.

    For political discussion about Latin America, there is a stereotypically looking bourgeois, non-Marxist writer from Peru, Mario Vargas Llosa, who writes essays about Latin American politics. But I didn't read them yet. I read a few of his articles in El Pais sometimes.

    Replies: @New Dealer, @Adept

    Love, love, love Vargas Llosa.

    His favorite, included in the western canon by Bloom, a fictionalization of true events, and on my top ten list of astonishing novels: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_War_of_the_End_of_the_World

    In the midst of the economic decline — following drought and the end of slavery — in the province of Bahia in Northeastern Brazil, the poor of the backlands are attracted by the charismatic figure and simple religious teachings of Antonio Conselheiro, called “The Counselor”, who preaches that the end of the world is imminent and that the political chaos that surrounds the collapse of the Empire of Brazil and its replacement by a republic is the work of the devil.

    Seizing a fazenda in an area blighted by economic decline at Canudos the Counselor’s followers build a large town and repeatedly defeat growing military expeditions designed to remove them. As the state’s violence against them increases, they too turn increasingly violent, even seizing the modern weapons deployed against them. In an epic final clash, a whole army is sent to extirpate Canudos and instigates a terrible and brutal battle with the poor while politicians of the old order see their world destroyed in the conflagration.

    Also love https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Feast_of_the_Goat a fictionalization of Trujillo’s tough political career.

    Vargas Llosa also happens to be a nonleftist.

  138. @Sean
    @Triteleia Laxa

    1. The average (in the sense of vast majority) Russian soldier is not very good. I am not sure how many regular soldiers Ukraine has left. Russia generalship is incredibly careless of causalities that anyone else would consider prohibitive relative to what the Russians have available in manpower.
    2. They have very roughly got 10% of the territory and lost 10% of the men they went in with, but they have got a very strategic 10% for the loss of not terribly effective troops.
    3. Deaths in the war so far have been mainly of Russian soldiers.
    4. Not everyone wants Russia to be knocked out of the balance of power by economic sanction leaving the US in a dominant global position. Unbearable for Russia is going to make the West very uncomfortable.
    5. See 4. Also India . Couple of billion people hungry for what Russian can offer and now able to get a special low price.
    6. Encirclement is the Russian way of war.
    7.Underestimating the will of the Russians has already cost Ukraine plenty, with a long running war millions more of refugees are going to leave for the West and whatever they now say many will never return. Demographers were already saying that Ukraine was going to have too few people for it large territory, and might have to give part of the country away in a generation. Even before this war Ukrainians had identical rights of EU entry to British people: 90 days’ stay without a visa. The refugees are nice people getting a warm welcome in wealthy countries who will give them leave to remain . I think with the stuff they are now getting, the Ukrainians are going to maul and frustrate the Russians, but the phrase Pyrrhic victory comes to mind. The largest country in Europe ending this with an actual population of mid 30s million; are they going to invite in Turks?
    8. A quarter of Russian men are dead by 55, like the last two heads of the GRU.
    9. The Ukrainians are fighting well, but history shows the countries that resist with regular forces to the bitter end when invaded have had enough by the time there is a ceasefire
    10. A research fellow of Stanford University’s Hoover Institution summarized his years of research and multi tome publications: ” In a few words: there is no such thing as Soviet technology. Almost all — perhaps 90–95 percent — came directly or indirectly from the United States and its allies”. When Reagan Administration came in and cut off of the technology transfers, in a incident Professor Mearsheimer noted “Marshal Nikolai Ogarkov was dismissed as the chief of the Soviet general staff in the summer of 1984 for saying publicly that Soviet industry was falling badly behind American industry, which meant that Soviet weaponry would soon be inferior to American weaponry. Russia trying to be cutting edge wouldn't work, so they can afford to lose intelligent people without affecting their real strength. Also, those people are going to be liberals anyway so Putin is glad to see the back of them
    11.


    The following is the text of the U.S.-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership signed by U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Washington, D.C. on November 10, 2021.

    The United States and Ukraine:

    Reaffirm the importance of our relationship as friends and strategic partners, based both on our shared values and common interests, including a commitment to a Europe that is whole, free, democratic, and at peace. Reiterate that the strategic partnership existing between our two nations is critical for the security of Ukraine and Europe as a whole.
     

    Zelinsky seems to have counted on this and his being the first Ukrainian president to secure a meeting with a POTUS to
    deter the Russians. Russia had already suffered a defeat in 2008 with the future Nato announcement and again in 2021 when for the first time a Potus agreed to meet the Ukrainian president. It simply was not acceptable for Russia to have Ukraine as America's sidekick, and Russia made no secret of that.
    12.Millions of Russians live in Ukraine, especially the East of the country, and the political class in Kiev twice (2004 and 2014) overthrew by street demonstration a Russia friendly and democratically elected President from the Russian speaking community with strong support there who had got enough Ukrainian speakers to vote for him to win. That sounds like integral nationalism to me. Not German integral nationalism (AKA Nazism) to be sure, but a Ukrainian variety.
    13. Russia did not count on Ukraine changing the spelling of it' capital city making it impossible to find! It will take about a week or two to reduce the defended urban area of Kiev, starting at the outside and moving in to the centre. The howitzer ammunition is not there yet.
    14. Russian conscripts being hunted like hares by Ukrainians with advanced American technology is not going to endear Ukraine to Russians.
    15. Poland did not just give Ukraine the fighter planes, it tried to get them sent via a Nato base. Sounds like Poland is trying to start a wider war.
    32. America has not yet started to fight on Ukraine's side and they are not going to. Anyone could see that if and when it came down to it, Ukraine would be standing alone in a bloody battle of wills fought on Ukraine's territory not Russia's. It is a crime that Zelinsky became president.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Brás Cubas, @SimplePseudonymicHandle

    14. Russian conscripts being hunted like hares by Ukrainians with advanced American technology is not going to endear Ukraine to Russians.

    I think for those conscripts that sucks.
    Not as much as having your country invaded, still less than having it invaded because “brothers”, but on the scale of things it sucks a lot.

    And: there’s not a lot Russia can do about it.

  139. If he loses a lot more soldiers and the war becomes hopeless he might.

    2 problems here:

    1. There is no possibility for Ukraine to push out the RuA no matter what. Ukraine doesn’t have the airpower or the command in control to launch anything besides uncoordinated, local counter attacks and there is no prospect for this changing during the course of the war.
    2. While Russia can hold against western sanctions indefinitely, the US has a strong interest in seeing this thing end as quickly as possible. The Democrats are already facing an apocalyptic midterms and for food and energy costs to rise further than they already have will have the US looking for a way out.

    Russia committed about 200,000 ground troops (including Donbas militia) to this operation. It has already lost a few thousand killed, double or triple that injured, heavily skewed towards elite troops (paratroopers and spetznaz) and hasn’t yet stormed any large city (if/when Mariupol falls it will be the first, but it is only 1/3 the size of Kharkiv and 1/2 the size of Odessa).

    Russia was expecting a walkover but, given time, they are capable of mobilizing another million men or so if it comes to that. And absolutely Putin would mobilize before accepting defeat. It’s literally do or die for him. After Mariupol falls, the focus will shift to Kharkov. I do believe Russia has enough troops in theatre to take (by siege) Kharkov at least, which opens up the possibility of enveloping the Ukrainian eastern front. While Russia certainly doesn’t have the strength to take all of it’s objectives at once, it may be able to take them one at a time while reinforcing with Belarussians, mercenaries and conscripts.

    I would be interested in reading the link you shared but it is in Polish and I do not know how to read that language.

    • Disagree: Derer
    • Replies: @AP
    @Greasy William


    There is no possibility for Ukraine to push out the RuA no matter what. Ukraine doesn’t have the airpower or the command in control to launch anything besides uncoordinated, local counter attacks and there is no prospect for this changing during the course of the war
     
    I don’t think Ukraine has the capability to take or retake large cities but it can certainly wipe out advance forces and eliminate convoys through attrition. Ukraine has retaken a handful of small towns in the north and east, and around Mikolayiv.

    Russia was expecting a walkover but, given time, they are capable of mobilizing another million men or so if it comes to that
     
    This is the only way in which Russia would be able to occupy all or most of Ukraine.

    I do believe Russia has enough troops in theatre to take (by siege) Kharkov at least, which opens up the possibility of enveloping the Ukrainian eastern front. While Russia certainly doesn’t have the strength to take all of it’s objectives at once, it may be able to take them one at a time
     
    At the rate of troop and equipment losses, without mass conscription of 100,000s, Russia will run out of troops and equipment long before reaching its goals.

    Mariupol was supposedly on the verge of falling 2 days ago. Still hasn’t fallen yet. Kharkiv is 3 times the size of Mariupol and it isn’t even surrounded.

    Replies: @Commentator Mike

  140. Seeing the comment section slowly return to normalcy – everything from Taoism to where you can find the best boiled potatoes being debated – warms my heart and it gives me hope that things will hopefully start to calm down soon in Europe too. There is only so much destruction and war that one can discuss before it becomes trite, and only ghouls enjoy seeing bloodshed anyway.

    • Agree: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Thulean Friend


    warms my heart and it gives me hope that things will hopefully start to calm down soon in Europe too. There is only so much destruction and war that one can discuss before it becomes trite, and only ghouls enjoy seeing bloodshed anyway.
     
    I dislike the hyper-emotional tone of much commentary on the war (all that atrocity propaganda on both sides...), but you can't just expect Ukraine to roll over and give up all sovereignty. This will continue for some time, until there's a negotiated end (is Putin interested?) or a definite resolution on the battlefield.
    Don't see normies calming down any time soon either.

    Replies: @LondonBob

  141. @Barbarossa
    @prime noticer

    I had been hearing doubts that the Russians even had operable hypersonics and that it may take years for them to be usable on the battlefield. This strike seems to put an end to that speculation.

    Replies: @Sean, @Ron Unz

    I had been hearing doubts that the Russians even had operable hypersonics and that it may take years for them to be usable on the battlefield. This strike seems to put an end to that speculation.

    That’s exactly my impression. Former CIA Analyst Larry Johnson has always seemed a pretty solid guy, and he had some interesting things to say about the missile strikes:

    https://sonar21.com/russia-exploits-ukraines-western-flank/

    He seems to think that there were 200+ KIA in that target near the Polish border, including lots of British and American military and intelligence personnel despite the MSM still claiming only 30-odd Ukrainians. That seems a big positive to me since the more high-value British and Americans the Russians kill, the more likely our military may pressure our political morons to start being sensible.

    In effect, the campaign gives the Russians a nice opportunity to test some of their hypersonics under battlefield conditions. Assuming they’re working as claimed, that might give Putin outright military superiority over NATO, with the capability of annihilating our conventional forces.

    If this is even half-correct, the continuing endless American arrogance and aggression of the Neocons looks even more totally insane than before.

    • Agree: Thulean Friend
    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    @Ron Unz

    Does this sound at all plausible?

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-elite-want-putin-out-successor-in-mind-ukraine-intel-chief/ar-AAVi9YA?ocid=undefined

    Replies: @Ron Unz, @Derer

    , @LondonBob
    @Ron Unz

    Wondered what happened to Larry Johnson. Pat Lang seems to have suffered a stroke or been pressurised like Napolitano was. Peculiar.

    The British press was surprisingly sombre after that missile attack.

    Replies: @German_reader

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Ron Unz

    Big brain Ron Unz's take upon Russia facing defeat in their invasion of Ukraine..

    "Putin (might have) outright military superiority over NATO"

    I really hope that someone is paying you to be this stupid and embarrassing.

    Or are you just really into babuschka fascism and the way in which Putin affects masculinity in order to warm the cockles of his main voter base of elderly and deranged Russian widows?

    Anyway, well done Ron. You've honoured those disproportionately Jewish traitors to the United States for Russia from the 1950s by spending the last few years repeating their errors as farce.

    And by doing this, you have made your own small contribution to make the world a more hateful, resentful and bitter place.

    Which I suppose only feeds your ego, because then you feel that you are making it more like you, despite your biological sterility.

    Replies: @tamako

    , @Barbarossa
    @Ron Unz


    the more high-value British and Americans the Russians kill, the more likely our military may pressure our political morons to start being sensible.
     
    I'm wouldn't count on it working that way. It's not like the military guys were advocating for a sane approach to Afghanistan, for example. The military brass have a hammer and all they know how to do is hit stuff, as far as I can tell.

    Putin outright military superiority over NATO, with the capability of annihilating our conventional forces.
     
    As others have said as well, I wouldn't count on Russia having lots of those laying about. It seems more plausible to me that they have a few operational and can project some force with them, but would be completely unable to use them to any devastating advantage. That's rank speculation on my part, but I don't think Russia has the budget to have cranked hypersonics out on some super fast time-frame.

    Also, I haven't been all that impressed by Russian military performance or readiness thus far. Setting aside all the fog of war and partisan wishful thinking from all sides, it seems underwhelming. My assessment of Russian military might has been downgraded from what I had expected previous to the Ukraine invasion. In an all out war with NATO, I would expect Russia to get beaten badly. Even financially based constraints alone would probably see munitions run low far before better financed countries in Europe and the US.

    Sure, the Pentagon wastes immense amounts of money on boondoggles and ineffectual bloat, but that doesn't mean they don't have a lot of hard resources at their disposal too. If it came to a hot war with Russia, I would tend to believe that they would be playing hardball since Russian regime change would be such a Pentagon/ Neo-con wet dream.

    Replies: @Ron Unz, @Sean

  142. A123 says: • Website

    Would Any of the pro-Ukraine commenters like to step up to defend this? (1)

    Under Martial Law, Ukraine President Zelenskyy Consolidates All Media Into State Media, Disbands All Political Opposition Parties

    Following the ‘democracy must be destroyed in order to preserve it model‘, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dissolved all political opposition parties and consolidated all media.

    There’s a word to describe when a single national leader:
        • Takes control over all media platforms, and
        • Dissolves the political parties of his opposition.

    However, apparently, we are not allowed to notice that because Russia “invaded a sovereign democracy” or something.

    LVIV, Ukraine, March 20 (Reuters) – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has signed a decree that combines all national TV channels into one platform, citing the importance of a “unified information policy” under martial law, his office said in a statement on Sunday

    .

    Mass censorship of legitimate, internal citizen concerns. I guess Ukraine is kind of like America. Will the DNC aid shipment include forged ballots and easily hacked vote counting machines?

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/20/under-martial-law-ukraine-president-zelenskyy-consolidates-all-media-into-state-media-disbands-all-political-opposition-parties/

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @A123

    I don't think he's dissolved all opposition parties, just about a dozen or so that are regarded as pro-Russia.
    Others will know the details, but maybe theconservativetreehouse isn't an accurate source (who would have thought, given your enthusiasm for the site...)?

    Replies: @A123

    , @AP
    @A123

    It’s a lie. He temporary suspended (not banned) only pro-Russian opposition parties, not all opposition parties. Not an unreasonable thing to do given that Russia invaded Ukraine. UK banned the British union of fascists during World War II, for example.

    Replies: @A123

    , @Derer
    @A123

    Zelensky used the 1918 Bolshevik book that his brethren imposed on Russians to criminalized opposition voice in Ukraine but I still predict a Yatseniuk grab for him.

  143. @Ron Unz
    @Barbarossa


    I had been hearing doubts that the Russians even had operable hypersonics and that it may take years for them to be usable on the battlefield. This strike seems to put an end to that speculation.
     
    That's exactly my impression. Former CIA Analyst Larry Johnson has always seemed a pretty solid guy, and he had some interesting things to say about the missile strikes:

    https://sonar21.com/russia-exploits-ukraines-western-flank/

    He seems to think that there were 200+ KIA in that target near the Polish border, including lots of British and American military and intelligence personnel despite the MSM still claiming only 30-odd Ukrainians. That seems a big positive to me since the more high-value British and Americans the Russians kill, the more likely our military may pressure our political morons to start being sensible.

    In effect, the campaign gives the Russians a nice opportunity to test some of their hypersonics under battlefield conditions. Assuming they're working as claimed, that might give Putin outright military superiority over NATO, with the capability of annihilating our conventional forces.

    If this is even half-correct, the continuing endless American arrogance and aggression of the Neocons looks even more totally insane than before.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123, @LondonBob, @Triteleia Laxa, @Barbarossa

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
    @JohnnyWalker123


    Does this sound at all plausible?
     
    The Ukrainian government claim that the Russians were about to remove Putin seems exceptionally, exceptionally implausible. I think it's the sort thing they'd probably say just before they surrender.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    , @Derer
    @JohnnyWalker123

    What do you expect from Ukrainian Intel - lie. They took refresher course from the CIA practice. This information would be kept confidential and not broadcasted.

  144. @Yellowface Anon
    Last thread LondonBob speculated about how the current round of lockdowns in China "aids" the Russian war effort. Since they are locking down all the most open areas investment wise, could that be a warning signal for foreign investors to start divesting, and offering them an clear way out before Brandon dials up illegitimate sanctions on China?

    Replies: @LondonBob

    I just think they use lockdowns to apply pressure on the US, remind them of their supply chain vulnerability, knowing the US really has no other alternatives. This is a theory Luke Gromen has, I agree with it, more plausible than zero covid fanaticism. I actually think sanctions on China are increasingly likely, as crazy as it sounds. Also I wonder how much China is now contemplating a move on Taiwan, I suspect that is far more likely.

    https://www.indianpunchline.com/china-sees-parallel-between-ukraine-taiwan/

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @LondonBob


    more plausible than zero covid fanaticism
     
    It is hard to imagine how anyone could think that Covid zero was an actionable plan at this point. I think your interpretation is an interesting one to consider.
    , @Yellowface Anon
    @LondonBob

    Lockdowns in China is now about cleaning up the private sector and centralizing power into the digital economy where the elite have a near-monopoly on, like the ones in the West. Since China is already so centralized, it's even more so now.

    I've already said that, if sanctions on Russia is about forcing the West to have the "green" transition and everyone to consider eating bugs, then sanctions on China has to be about using automation at home and UBI to make up for the manufacturing short fall.

    Sooner or later it has to be done, no matter how everyone will be worse off because of it, because Agenda 2030.

    China will move on Taiwan when Brandon starts sanctioning China and locks in the economic costs of any military action. The same logic that led to Putin moving onto Ukraine.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    , @A123
    @LondonBob


    I just think they use lockdowns to apply pressure on the US, remind them of their supply chain vulnerability, knowing the US really has no other alternatives
     
    The CCP has shown that China is unreliable as a supplier. Therefore, the U.S. will develop alternatives. The current White House bungler is slowing this inevitable change, but cannot stop it. The next U.S. President will promote the successful alternative, MAGA Reindustrialization.

    The CCP desperately needs the U.S. market. The implosion of its real estate markets has left it weak (1). China's centrally mismanaged economy is sliding towards the edge of a cliff. Further damaging trade makes every CCP problem worse.

    I wonder how much China is now contemplating a move on Taiwan, I suspect that is far more likely
     
    It was extremely unlikely before, and is even more so now.

    While Russia will grind out a military win in Ukraine, the result will be destruction and expensive reconstruction. The post-war peace will be painful & uncertain.

    Taiwan has a much better military protected by deep water, 3x wider than the English Channel. The CCP cannot take Taiwan quickly or intact. Destroying the chip making capability of TMSC will result in equally destructive retaliation against SMIC plus a total ban on technology transfer. The PRC would be impoverished.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/meanwhile-china-all-hell-breaking-loose
  145. sher singh says:
    @German_reader
    @Dmitry


    It is only strange, when you see educated people behave like this.
     
    Educated people don't seem to be all that different, they just come up with more elaborate rationalizations.
    (and yeah, I know, I shouldn't complain given the sometimes extreme nature of my views, I'm hardly innocent of such tendencies myself.)

    Replies: @Dmitry, @sher singh

    Third world hatred stems from the correct perception that you offer poison.
    What you give the world is AIDS, Abortion & Gay Marriage.

    Western values are disgusting, and most of the world views you like this: not that they’re any better,

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    • Agree: German_reader, Pharmakon
    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @sher singh

    I've thought often that when Muslims in the middle-east shout "Great-Satan" in reference to the US it's not exactly surprising when one considers the cultural (and military often enough) exports. It's not as though I disagree with them in their assessment. I certainly see American culture as cancer, and my own life in America as living in a hostile environment. However, I live in an area insulated from the worst influences, among people who broadly share my world-view, so I see a different side of America than it's official "Great-Satan" face.



    On another note, you live in Sweden, if I picked up inferences by others correctly?
    I have this mental image of you working in a professional setting in some office among liberal Swedes; yourself being polite though a little aloof, while the Swedes think to themselves "Isn't he just the nicest person of color!" while they have no idea of what you really think. Maybe it's just a BS idea I came up with, but it amuses me considerably.

    Replies: @sher singh, @sher singh

  146. @A123
    Would Any of the pro-Ukraine commenters like to step up to defend this? (1)

    Under Martial Law, Ukraine President Zelenskyy Consolidates All Media Into State Media, Disbands All Political Opposition Parties

    Following the ‘democracy must be destroyed in order to preserve it model‘, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dissolved all political opposition parties and consolidated all media.

    There’s a word to describe when a single national leader:
        • Takes control over all media platforms, and
        • Dissolves the political parties of his opposition.

    However, apparently, we are not allowed to notice that because Russia “invaded a sovereign democracy” or something.

    LVIV, Ukraine, March 20 (Reuters) – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has signed a decree that combines all national TV channels into one platform, citing the importance of a “unified information policy” under martial law, his office said in a statement on Sunday
     
    .
     
    Mass censorship of legitimate, internal citizen concerns. I guess Ukraine is kind of like America. Will the DNC aid shipment include forged ballots and easily hacked vote counting machines?

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/20/under-martial-law-ukraine-president-zelenskyy-consolidates-all-media-into-state-media-disbands-all-political-opposition-parties/

    Replies: @German_reader, @AP, @Derer

    I don’t think he’s dissolved all opposition parties, just about a dozen or so that are regarded as pro-Russia.
    Others will know the details, but maybe theconservativetreehouse isn’t an accurate source (who would have thought, given your enthusiasm for the site…)?

    • LOL: LondonBob, A123
    • Replies: @A123
    @German_reader

    The story has been eported everywhere. What *fact* are you disputing?

    Why are you engaging in ad hominem attacks?

    -- Because you know that I am right?
    -- Or, because your Precious Scholz is wrong?

    Being consumed by envy is not a good mental state for you to be in.

    #LetsGoBrandon 😇

    Replies: @German_reader

  147. German_reader says:
    @Thulean Friend
    Seeing the comment section slowly return to normalcy - everything from Taoism to where you can find the best boiled potatoes being debated - warms my heart and it gives me hope that things will hopefully start to calm down soon in Europe too. There is only so much destruction and war that one can discuss before it becomes trite, and only ghouls enjoy seeing bloodshed anyway.

    Replies: @German_reader

    warms my heart and it gives me hope that things will hopefully start to calm down soon in Europe too. There is only so much destruction and war that one can discuss before it becomes trite, and only ghouls enjoy seeing bloodshed anyway.

    I dislike the hyper-emotional tone of much commentary on the war (all that atrocity propaganda on both sides…), but you can’t just expect Ukraine to roll over and give up all sovereignty. This will continue for some time, until there’s a negotiated end (is Putin interested?) or a definite resolution on the battlefield.
    Don’t see normies calming down any time soon either.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    @German_reader

    They gave up their sovereignty in 2014.

  148. sher singh says:

    https://swoleateveryheight.blogspot.com/2014/07/the-gzcl-method-simplified_13.html

    Modded this to a full body & ENJOYING!

    Basically, you have a T1 like Bench, Squat, DL & OHP.
    Pick T2s like Front Squat or RDL to build up T1s.
    I skip T3s since I just double up on T2s to make it full body 4x week.

    Plateau = proly too heavy too often. In my case heavy sqts from 3x week to 1x = GAINZ

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  149. @Dmitry
    @Yevardian

    Have you read Herodotus yet? I feel like I remember German Reader was going to advise us to read him.


    Spanish literature
     
    Maybe Unamuno could be interesting? I never read his books though. Probably, Mikel has a view. This is the kind of book I would look for as a souvenir in Spain.

    For political discussion about Latin America, there is a stereotypically looking bourgeois, non-Marxist writer from Peru, Mario Vargas Llosa, who writes essays about Latin American politics. But I didn't read them yet. I read a few of his articles in El Pais sometimes.

    Replies: @New Dealer, @Adept

    Unamuno’s philosophical books are good, and well worth reading. Imagine one part Nietzsche, if Nietzsche were extremely Catholic; one part Kierkegaard, if Kierkegaard were more focused and less scatterbrained; one part Islam-style fatalism. The end result is a sort of warrior-Christianity that is open to self-doubt and self-reflection, but advises faith nevertheless.

    I haven’t yet read the man’s fiction, but I’ve heard that it’s also very good.

    As for the present war, Unamuno would be utterly disgusted beyond belief.

  150. @Dacian Julien Soros
    @Yevardian

    Can you read Romanian? I find current-year Romanian literature as formulaic as current-year world literature or current-year pop music. I think Marin Preda and Camil Petrescu were the best novel writers, but neither was translated to English AFAIK. Both are half-realistic writers, reflecting the Romanian life in the first half of the 20th century.

    Replies: @Yevardian

    Can you read Romanian? I find current-year Romanian literature as formulaic as current-year world literature or current-year pop music.

    Yes, although I’ve barely used it all in years. I’ll just say I have close personal ties to the country. And yes, although I don’t follow that closely, its expected, probably most recent authors I read were Sadoveanu and Urmuz, both pretty old.
    But at least until the mid 20th century Romania had a respectable number of strong writers for a country of its size.

    Leaving this forum is in my view unnecessary, it is one of the few places where different perspectives meet. This war is the most important event in a long time, it will impact everything.

    It’s more just a periodic break from internet/news I regularly take, when I start noticing it starts effecting output in real things. There’s also been escalating crisis in Armenia (again), since Azerbaijan has been repeatedly violating the ceasefire recently, and blocking gas and imports (during a freezing winter) to the remnants of Artsakh in an attempt induce panic. Its also unclear how long Russian troops will remain to protect the corridor with this fucking Ukrainian war dragging.. I course, I don’t expect average reader to take interest in Turkic bloodfeuds (small-country nationalisms injecting their grievances into every discussion), but I mention it as part of the post-Soviet context, a lot in the wider region is hinging on events in Ukraine.

    Not really helpful, it was adequately written and seemed relatively non-partisan, you could at least point out what you found wrong with it (it was just a popular history for an educated Anglo layperson that knows little of the modern state, I don’t know what you expect), or recommend something better.

    @BlinkyBill

    Neither here nor there, but apart from personal distaste, the things about Indian culture (their languages and visage aside) I find really repulsive is the pervasive dichotomy between self-abasing servility and churlish arrogance you get there as a result of the caste-system.
    And its all overlaid by this reverence deep feelings of racial inferiority, and a practical reverence for stasis and total complacence with conditions of filth and despair that forms a part of their traditional religions. I don’t think its a coincidence that Western charlatans, degenerates and drug-addicts have taken inspiration from there since at least the late 19th century.

    @Dmitri

    Have you read Herodotus yet? I feel like I remember German Reader was going to advise us to read him.

    I think like a lot of people, I’ve examined certain passages extensively, or referred to it as an index for sourcing various topics, but I haven’t sat and read through the whole work, no. I’ve always been more interested in the Hellenistic and Late-Roman/early-Byzantine periods, since they deal with very topical issues like demographic change/replacement, tensions in multiethnic societies, imperial overextension, and state collapse. So in general I’m more familiar with authors like Polybios, Diodoros or Prokopios, than Herodotos.

    Herodotos of course belongs to the ‘Golden Age’ of Greece, perhaps all antiquity, but also for that reason it has always disproportionate attention relative to all other periods. Greeks were artificially copying the ‘Attic’ dialect of Greek (although Herodotos wrote Ionian, he’s a little earlier), using a huge array of long-obselete diacritics, even as the speech had evolved to Koine, then Byzantine forms, in some form, practically until the end of Katharevousa.

    Maybe Unamuno could be interesting? I never read his books though. Probably, Mikel has a view. This is the kind of book I would look for as a souvenir in Spain.

    Yeah, I remember reading a book of his on Christianity a while ago, but I didn’t quite ‘grab’ me. He also seems to have held very ‘cuck’ like disparaging views on his own native language and culture, which turns me off. I mean, it can be justified, but to me the superiority of Basque society over Castillian conditions (as a whole) just seems very obvious.

    Btw, I started on a book on recent China that looks interesting, even if it’s obviously from some hyperpartisan neocon hawk angle (and apparently, written by a pajeet), its not hiding that fact. So far, from the introduction, its clear the author disdains emotional language, looks to be a worthwhile read. Perhaps Our Benevolent Overlord himself would be interested in taking a look?

    • Thanks: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @sher singh
    @Yevardian

    https://youtu.be/tEwz3sHwNjY
    https://youtube.com/shorts/Xk12JWDcYMg?feature=share

    Any place ruled by priests degenerates look at the modern West. This was already predicted & is being restored. You're on the wrong side as recent events in Russia show.

    https://twitter.com/Parikramah/status/1287798024304041984?s=20

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    , @Mikel
    @Yevardian


    Yeah, I remember reading a book of his on Christianity a while ago, but I didn’t quite ‘grab’ me. He also seems to have held very ‘cuck’ like disparaging views on his own native language and culture, which turns me off.
     
    Yes, Some of Unamuno's work was required reading at high school and it didn't cause any lasting impression on me either.

    His disparaging Basque culture is not surprising though. He only had partial Basque ancestry and he was born in Bilbao, of all places, at a time of big industrial growth that must have contrasted sharply with the Basque rural surroundings.

    My favorite novelist in Spanish language used to be Pio Baroja. Like Unamuno, he was a member of the prolific Generation of 98, formed around writers influenced by the final defeat of the Spanish imperial dream after the Spanish-American War. Baroja also had Basque and Italian roots but he was much more assimilated to the Basque Country, having been born in the more autochthonous Donostia. As I remember his novels, he used to portray very appealing and credible characters of adventurers born in the maritime side of the Basque lands, where he was born.

    But I haven't read any fiction for years and the last time I did I went for Swedish dark humor so I'm not sure how valuable my opinion might be for a very well read person like you.
    , @Dmitry
    @Yevardian


    isparaging views on his own native language and culture
     
    I'm not saying he is interesting or not (as I didn't read him) or even if he could be called a philosopher. Maybe Spain, doesn't have philosophers?

    But which philosophers or interesting writers, don't need to do that? It's a little like fasting for saints. One of Socrates' definitions, according to Plato, (to paraphase) of a philosopher, is the higher soul person who disengaged from their current time, from their family and place, views like from the top of a mountain.

    Herodotos of course belongs to the ‘Golden Age’ of Greece, perhaps all antiquity, but also for that reason it has always disproportionate attention
     
    Although I guess not disproportionate relative to the quality or interest of the civilization. It's one of the more elevated and fertile times and places of the human race, so it's natural people focus on the fifth century writers.

    China that looks interesting, even if it’s obviously from some hyperpartisan neocon
     
    Maybe it would be interesting to read what the Chinese Marxist historians are writing. Perhaps not, in terms of European history, but in terms of the Chinese history of recent centuries.
  151. @German_reader
    @sudden death

    Maybe I'm just too stupid to enable the proper settings. But iirc someone else complained about it on a recent thread, so it seems to be a not totally uncommon problem. On my system they start auto-playing as soon as you scroll over the comment they're embedded in.

    Replies: @songbird, @Yevardian

    I had the exact same issue last thread, it thought it was just due to big-thread-lag, but its now autoplaying everytime this page loads too. Another item to add to Reddit’s endless crimes.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
    @Yevardian

    I've been getting many more complaints about all those autoplaying Reddit video embeds, which are severely degrading the performance of the thread.

    This isn't a image-forum aimed at morons who like to spend all their time watching stupid videos, so I've gone ahead and disabled all Reddit embeds by automatically modifying the URLs. If someone wants to watch them, just remove the xx's from the beginning of the URL.

  152. @Brás Cubas
    @Sean

    I agree that's a possible scenario, but things might take a different turn. Germany had no problem becoming a docile ally to the U.S. after the World War II humiliation.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Sean

    Germany had no problem becoming a docile ally to the U.S. after the World War II humiliation.

    After World War Two, yes, but there is absolutely no chance of a WW2 Germany-style defeat of Russia for reasons that ought to be obvious. The most that could possibly happen is a WW1 type ending, and I would point out that after that Germany did ally with the Soviet Union, begining with military cooperation between Weimar and the USSR.

    • Agree: Brás Cubas
  153. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Aedib


    If real.
     
    The part of the internet where we all get to argue about who is the real Nazi is fast becoming an uninteresting fraction.

    Did anybody read the newlinks entry on Olena Semenyaka? She was a big discussion item a couple years ago on AK's blog. The main topic of debate was is she hot or not? I didn't have an opinion because I had no idea who she was. As I recall the consensus was she was definitely hot back when she was 25 years old but she smoked a ton of cigarettes and drank tanker loads of vodka and had aged badly. Google image search is flailing for a current photograph.

    Replies: @Aedib

    Mediterranean girls age better than Slavic ones.

    • Agree: LondonBob
  154. @German_reader
    @Thulean Friend


    warms my heart and it gives me hope that things will hopefully start to calm down soon in Europe too. There is only so much destruction and war that one can discuss before it becomes trite, and only ghouls enjoy seeing bloodshed anyway.
     
    I dislike the hyper-emotional tone of much commentary on the war (all that atrocity propaganda on both sides...), but you can't just expect Ukraine to roll over and give up all sovereignty. This will continue for some time, until there's a negotiated end (is Putin interested?) or a definite resolution on the battlefield.
    Don't see normies calming down any time soon either.

    Replies: @LondonBob

    They gave up their sovereignty in 2014.

  155. @Ron Unz
    @Barbarossa


    I had been hearing doubts that the Russians even had operable hypersonics and that it may take years for them to be usable on the battlefield. This strike seems to put an end to that speculation.
     
    That's exactly my impression. Former CIA Analyst Larry Johnson has always seemed a pretty solid guy, and he had some interesting things to say about the missile strikes:

    https://sonar21.com/russia-exploits-ukraines-western-flank/

    He seems to think that there were 200+ KIA in that target near the Polish border, including lots of British and American military and intelligence personnel despite the MSM still claiming only 30-odd Ukrainians. That seems a big positive to me since the more high-value British and Americans the Russians kill, the more likely our military may pressure our political morons to start being sensible.

    In effect, the campaign gives the Russians a nice opportunity to test some of their hypersonics under battlefield conditions. Assuming they're working as claimed, that might give Putin outright military superiority over NATO, with the capability of annihilating our conventional forces.

    If this is even half-correct, the continuing endless American arrogance and aggression of the Neocons looks even more totally insane than before.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123, @LondonBob, @Triteleia Laxa, @Barbarossa

    Wondered what happened to Larry Johnson. Pat Lang seems to have suffered a stroke or been pressurised like Napolitano was. Peculiar.

    The British press was surprisingly sombre after that missile attack.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @LondonBob


    Pat Lang seems to have suffered a stroke or been pressurised like Napolitano was. Peculiar.

     

    Lang commented on the war in Ukraine as recently as two days ago (I doubt it's worth reading though):
    https://turcopolier.com/
    https://turcopolier.com/how-many-dead-and-wounded-russian-boys-and-men-so-far/

    Replies: @LondonBob

  156. @JohnnyWalker123
    @Ron Unz

    Does this sound at all plausible?

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-elite-want-putin-out-successor-in-mind-ukraine-intel-chief/ar-AAVi9YA?ocid=undefined

    Replies: @Ron Unz, @Derer

    Does this sound at all plausible?

    The Ukrainian government claim that the Russians were about to remove Putin seems exceptionally, exceptionally implausible. I think it’s the sort thing they’d probably say just before they surrender.

    • Thanks: JohnnyWalker123
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Ron Unz

    "just before they surrender"

    Ukraine's been winning this war to this point (certainly holding its own), so why in the world should they surrender? Sounds to me like you have a vested interest in seeing Russia win. I make this this conclusion where even you have stated that in the face of good scientific evidence, you've admitted to seeing things in a pro-Russian/anti-Ukrainian sort of way. The cards that you're holding are becoming transparent to your readers...

    Replies: @Ron Unz

  157. @utu
    @iffen

    An earnest person answer to the snarko-ironist:

    Actually, red potatoes are very good as boiled potatoes, so they are right</b potatoes. Yukon gold are also very good. Some chefs (Chef John) say that Yukon gold are the best for mashed potatoes. IMO baking potatoes (like Russet) are the best for mashed potatoes because they do not have that much water so you can add more milk or cream to them but they are lousy as boiled potatoes. The best potatoes for potato/German salad are Belgian fingerling or Russian banana potatoes but because they are small and irregular shapes they are hard to work with when peeling after boiling.

    The key point is not to overcook them for boiling potatoes and not to undercook them for mashed potatoes. The unpeeled potatoes have wide tolerance margin for overcooking but for hash browns you should slightly undercook them because you still will be frying them.

    I do not have experience with more exotic potatoes from Peru that are purple or bluish or orange. But I am sure that hipster foodies will make them popular.

    Replies: @iffen, @Philip Owen

    Actually, red potatoes are very good as boiled potatoes, so they are right</b potatoes.

    To be precise, red “Arsh” potatoes, unpeeled, freshly dug, (hours, not days) are supreme when boiled and served with English peas or just as good sliced and baked in butter.

  158. @Ron Unz
    @Barbarossa


    I had been hearing doubts that the Russians even had operable hypersonics and that it may take years for them to be usable on the battlefield. This strike seems to put an end to that speculation.
     
    That's exactly my impression. Former CIA Analyst Larry Johnson has always seemed a pretty solid guy, and he had some interesting things to say about the missile strikes:

    https://sonar21.com/russia-exploits-ukraines-western-flank/

    He seems to think that there were 200+ KIA in that target near the Polish border, including lots of British and American military and intelligence personnel despite the MSM still claiming only 30-odd Ukrainians. That seems a big positive to me since the more high-value British and Americans the Russians kill, the more likely our military may pressure our political morons to start being sensible.

    In effect, the campaign gives the Russians a nice opportunity to test some of their hypersonics under battlefield conditions. Assuming they're working as claimed, that might give Putin outright military superiority over NATO, with the capability of annihilating our conventional forces.

    If this is even half-correct, the continuing endless American arrogance and aggression of the Neocons looks even more totally insane than before.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123, @LondonBob, @Triteleia Laxa, @Barbarossa

    Big brain Ron Unz’s take upon Russia facing defeat in their invasion of Ukraine..

    “Putin (might have) outright military superiority over NATO”

    I really hope that someone is paying you to be this stupid and embarrassing.

    Or are you just really into babuschka fascism and the way in which Putin affects masculinity in order to warm the cockles of his main voter base of elderly and deranged Russian widows?

    Anyway, well done Ron. You’ve honoured those disproportionately Jewish traitors to the United States for Russia from the 1950s by spending the last few years repeating their errors as farce.

    And by doing this, you have made your own small contribution to make the world a more hateful, resentful and bitter place.

    Which I suppose only feeds your ego, because then you feel that you are making it more like you, despite your biological sterility.

    • LOL: Bill
    • Replies: @tamako
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Mr. Unz likely isn't going to spend his time addressing this, so I may as well throw in a quick question.

    C'mon, man. Surely you don't think that this is the best way to convince Ron?

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  159. @LondonBob
    @Yellowface Anon

    I just think they use lockdowns to apply pressure on the US, remind them of their supply chain vulnerability, knowing the US really has no other alternatives. This is a theory Luke Gromen has, I agree with it, more plausible than zero covid fanaticism. I actually think sanctions on China are increasingly likely, as crazy as it sounds. Also I wonder how much China is now contemplating a move on Taiwan, I suspect that is far more likely.

    https://www.indianpunchline.com/china-sees-parallel-between-ukraine-taiwan/

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Yellowface Anon, @A123

    more plausible than zero covid fanaticism

    It is hard to imagine how anyone could think that Covid zero was an actionable plan at this point. I think your interpretation is an interesting one to consider.

  160. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Ron Unz

    Big brain Ron Unz's take upon Russia facing defeat in their invasion of Ukraine..

    "Putin (might have) outright military superiority over NATO"

    I really hope that someone is paying you to be this stupid and embarrassing.

    Or are you just really into babuschka fascism and the way in which Putin affects masculinity in order to warm the cockles of his main voter base of elderly and deranged Russian widows?

    Anyway, well done Ron. You've honoured those disproportionately Jewish traitors to the United States for Russia from the 1950s by spending the last few years repeating their errors as farce.

    And by doing this, you have made your own small contribution to make the world a more hateful, resentful and bitter place.

    Which I suppose only feeds your ego, because then you feel that you are making it more like you, despite your biological sterility.

    Replies: @tamako

    Mr. Unz likely isn’t going to spend his time addressing this, so I may as well throw in a quick question.

    C’mon, man. Surely you don’t think that this is the best way to convince Ron?

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @tamako

    Sometimes you just need to tell someone how they are in their actions and effect on the world and spare repeating their own excuses and waylaid good intentions back at them.

  161. sher singh [AKA "Jatt Aryaa"] says:
    @Yevardian
    @Dacian Julien Soros


    Can you read Romanian? I find current-year Romanian literature as formulaic as current-year world literature or current-year pop music.
     
    Yes, although I've barely used it all in years. I'll just say I have close personal ties to the country. And yes, although I don't follow that closely, its expected, probably most recent authors I read were Sadoveanu and Urmuz, both pretty old.
    But at least until the mid 20th century Romania had a respectable number of strong writers for a country of its size.

    @Beckow

    Leaving this forum is in my view unnecessary, it is one of the few places where different perspectives meet. This war is the most important event in a long time, it will impact everything.
     

    It's more just a periodic break from internet/news I regularly take, when I start noticing it starts effecting output in real things. There's also been escalating crisis in Armenia (again), since Azerbaijan has been repeatedly violating the ceasefire recently, and blocking gas and imports (during a freezing winter) to the remnants of Artsakh in an attempt induce panic. Its also unclear how long Russian troops will remain to protect the corridor with this fucking Ukrainian war dragging.. I course, I don't expect average reader to take interest in Turkic bloodfeuds (small-country nationalisms injecting their grievances into every discussion), but I mention it as part of the post-Soviet context, a lot in the wider region is hinging on events in Ukraine.

    @Agathoklis

    Not really helpful, it was adequately written and seemed relatively non-partisan, you could at least point out what you found wrong with it (it was just a popular history for an educated Anglo layperson that knows little of the modern state, I don't know what you expect), or recommend something better.

    @BlinkyBill

    Neither here nor there, but apart from personal distaste, the things about Indian culture (their languages and visage aside) I find really repulsive is the pervasive dichotomy between self-abasing servility and churlish arrogance you get there as a result of the caste-system.
    And its all overlaid by this reverence deep feelings of racial inferiority, and a practical reverence for stasis and total complacence with conditions of filth and despair that forms a part of their traditional religions. I don't think its a coincidence that Western charlatans, degenerates and drug-addicts have taken inspiration from there since at least the late 19th century.

    @Dmitri


    Have you read Herodotus yet? I feel like I remember German Reader was going to advise us to read him.
     
    I think like a lot of people, I've examined certain passages extensively, or referred to it as an index for sourcing various topics, but I haven't sat and read through the whole work, no. I've always been more interested in the Hellenistic and Late-Roman/early-Byzantine periods, since they deal with very topical issues like demographic change/replacement, tensions in multiethnic societies, imperial overextension, and state collapse. So in general I'm more familiar with authors like Polybios, Diodoros or Prokopios, than Herodotos.

    Herodotos of course belongs to the 'Golden Age' of Greece, perhaps all antiquity, but also for that reason it has always disproportionate attention relative to all other periods. Greeks were artificially copying the 'Attic' dialect of Greek (although Herodotos wrote Ionian, he's a little earlier), using a huge array of long-obselete diacritics, even as the speech had evolved to Koine, then Byzantine forms, in some form, practically until the end of Katharevousa.


    Maybe Unamuno could be interesting? I never read his books though. Probably, Mikel has a view. This is the kind of book I would look for as a souvenir in Spain.
     
    Yeah, I remember reading a book of his on Christianity a while ago, but I didn't quite 'grab' me. He also seems to have held very 'cuck' like disparaging views on his own native language and culture, which turns me off. I mean, it can be justified, but to me the superiority of Basque society over Castillian conditions (as a whole) just seems very obvious.

    Btw, I started on a book on recent China that looks interesting, even if it's obviously from some hyperpartisan neocon hawk angle (and apparently, written by a pajeet), its not hiding that fact. So far, from the introduction, its clear the author disdains emotional language, looks to be a worthwhile read. Perhaps Our Benevolent Overlord himself would be interested in taking a look?

    https://www.amazon.com.au/Long-Game-Strategy-Displacement-American/dp/0197527914

    Replies: @sher singh, @Mikel, @Dmitry

    https://youtube.com/shorts/Xk12JWDcYMg?feature=share

    Any place ruled by priests degenerates look at the modern West. This was already predicted & is being restored. You’re on the wrong side as recent events in Russia show.

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  162. @tamako
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Mr. Unz likely isn't going to spend his time addressing this, so I may as well throw in a quick question.

    C'mon, man. Surely you don't think that this is the best way to convince Ron?

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Sometimes you just need to tell someone how they are in their actions and effect on the world and spare repeating their own excuses and waylaid good intentions back at them.

  163. I think the end goal is in sight for the Russians. Once Mariupol falls they will have achieved securing both states of the Donbas within their administrative boundaries. They’ll probably also want to keep their gains in Southern Ukraine, creating a land connection to Crimea. Not sure about Kharkov. Also seems a little in the game to go after Odessa as well. As for the Ukrainians, I hardly doubt Zelensky is even in Kiev – my guess is he’s somewhere in Poland. Not sure how long he can keep up with this ruling in absentia, so my guess is that someone else in the government will step up to deal with the Russians. Zelensky won’t accept the terms since his masters want to keep the conflict going. But in the end it won’t be up to him.

    • LOL: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Hapalong Cassidy

    "Ruling in absentia"?..."somewhere in Poland"?

    Are you sure that you're not mixing him up with somebody else, like the man in the moon?


    https://static.greatbigcanvas.com/images/singlecanvas_thick_none/art-licensing/man-with-moon,2434235.jpg

  164. @sher singh
    @German_reader

    Third world hatred stems from the correct perception that you offer poison.
    What you give the world is AIDS, Abortion & Gay Marriage.

    Western values are disgusting, and most of the world views you like this: not that they're any better,

    https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/mobile/000/039/321/american-in-europe.jpg

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    I’ve thought often that when Muslims in the middle-east shout “Great-Satan” in reference to the US it’s not exactly surprising when one considers the cultural (and military often enough) exports. It’s not as though I disagree with them in their assessment. I certainly see American culture as cancer, and my own life in America as living in a hostile environment. However, I live in an area insulated from the worst influences, among people who broadly share my world-view, so I see a different side of America than it’s official “Great-Satan” face.

    [MORE]

    On another note, you live in Sweden, if I picked up inferences by others correctly?
    I have this mental image of you working in a professional setting in some office among liberal Swedes; yourself being polite though a little aloof, while the Swedes think to themselves “Isn’t he just the nicest person of color!” while they have no idea of what you really think. Maybe it’s just a BS idea I came up with, but it amuses me considerably.

    • Disagree: sher singh
    • LOL: Yevardian
    • Replies: @sher singh
    @Barbarossa

    https://twitter.com/nimatavrood/status/1501992460809089033?s=21

    Replies: @Dacian Julien Soros

    , @sher singh
    @Barbarossa

    Don't know if you mean it as such, but we view quiet politeness in the face of mutual contempt as weakness.

    Not gonna say anything about my personal situation because it's unbecoming. You know I have a beard down to the stomach, and a 3ft long sword carried everyday.

    You can make an inference for how it goes after that. However you perceive it is hopefully to your benefit. I just lift, and carry weapons. 🤷‍♀️

    The people in your area are likely the save brown women variety. Whites inherently & universally carry this 'schelling point' or shibboleth against brown masculinity regardless of the political ideology. It's how we assume every white is gay/pushover.

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    Replies: @Barbarossa

  165. @A123
    Would Any of the pro-Ukraine commenters like to step up to defend this? (1)

    Under Martial Law, Ukraine President Zelenskyy Consolidates All Media Into State Media, Disbands All Political Opposition Parties

    Following the ‘democracy must be destroyed in order to preserve it model‘, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dissolved all political opposition parties and consolidated all media.

    There’s a word to describe when a single national leader:
        • Takes control over all media platforms, and
        • Dissolves the political parties of his opposition.

    However, apparently, we are not allowed to notice that because Russia “invaded a sovereign democracy” or something.

    LVIV, Ukraine, March 20 (Reuters) – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has signed a decree that combines all national TV channels into one platform, citing the importance of a “unified information policy” under martial law, his office said in a statement on Sunday
     
    .
     
    Mass censorship of legitimate, internal citizen concerns. I guess Ukraine is kind of like America. Will the DNC aid shipment include forged ballots and easily hacked vote counting machines?

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/20/under-martial-law-ukraine-president-zelenskyy-consolidates-all-media-into-state-media-disbands-all-political-opposition-parties/

    Replies: @German_reader, @AP, @Derer

    It’s a lie. He temporary suspended (not banned) only pro-Russian opposition parties, not all opposition parties. Not an unreasonable thing to do given that Russia invaded Ukraine. UK banned the British union of fascists during World War II, for example.

    • Replies: @A123
    @AP


    It’s a lie. He temporary suspended (not banned) only pro-Russian opposition parties, not all opposition parties. Not an unreasonable thing to do given that Russia invaded Ukraine. UK banned the British union of fascists during World War II, for example.
     
    Are the parties he banned/suspended particularly influential?

    I see your point, but if they were relatively harmless it is not an obvious gain for Zelensky. It is undercuts his messaging abroad. Also, it forces those who disagree with his government "underground" where they are difficult to monitor.
    ____

    Media consolidation is also problematic: (1)


    In an address to his nation delivered Sunday, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky announced an order “combining all national TV channels, the program content of which consists mainly of information and/or information-analytical programs, [into] a single information platform of strategic communication” to be called “United News.”

    The move means the end, at least temporarily, of privately owned Ukrainian media outlets in that country. Zelensky claimed the measure is needed to combat alleged Russian misinformation and “tell the truth about the war.”
     

    It is hard to see how this will restrict "misinformation" reaching Ukrainian citizens. Foreign media will still be available via adjacent countries, satellite, and internet sources.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/ukraine-president-volodymyr-zelensky-combines-222313241.html

  166. @LondonBob
    @Ron Unz

    Wondered what happened to Larry Johnson. Pat Lang seems to have suffered a stroke or been pressurised like Napolitano was. Peculiar.

    The British press was surprisingly sombre after that missile attack.

    Replies: @German_reader

    Pat Lang seems to have suffered a stroke or been pressurised like Napolitano was. Peculiar.

    Lang commented on the war in Ukraine as recently as two days ago (I doubt it’s worth reading though):
    https://turcopolier.com/
    https://turcopolier.com/how-many-dead-and-wounded-russian-boys-and-men-so-far/

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    @German_reader

    I mean in the sense he has had a complete personality change, like after when people have had a stroke. People ask Larry about it in the comments thread of the article linked.


    Wow, I’m aware there were differences of opinion about the Ukraine-Russian war but didn’t know Larry and Patrick were actually banned from Turcopolier. Their essays were always very popular and elicited lots of comments.
     

    Yes. My piece on an Alternative Scenario in Ukraine got over 85,000 hits. Unheard of on Pat’s blog. He’s lost his mojo.
     

    SST is becoming infested with neocon npc’s and it looks like TTG is moving in to take over.

    Meanwhile, PL is using obvious msm propaganda as his sources and seems to be getting testier by the day.
     

    I think he is suffering a serious cognitive decline. This is not the man I once called friend and mentor.
     

    Replies: @German_reader

  167. @Hapalong Cassidy
    I think the end goal is in sight for the Russians. Once Mariupol falls they will have achieved securing both states of the Donbas within their administrative boundaries. They’ll probably also want to keep their gains in Southern Ukraine, creating a land connection to Crimea. Not sure about Kharkov. Also seems a little in the game to go after Odessa as well. As for the Ukrainians, I hardly doubt Zelensky is even in Kiev - my guess is he’s somewhere in Poland. Not sure how long he can keep up with this ruling in absentia, so my guess is that someone else in the government will step up to deal with the Russians. Zelensky won’t accept the terms since his masters want to keep the conflict going. But in the end it won’t be up to him.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    “Ruling in absentia”?…”somewhere in Poland”?

    Are you sure that you’re not mixing him up with somebody else, like the man in the moon?

    [MORE]

  168. Thanx, Putler 😉

    Germany and Qatar have agreed upon a long-term energy partnership to help cut reliance on Russian gas over the invasion of Ukraine, German Economic Minister Robert Habeck said Sunday.

    Habeck, who is on a two-nation visit to the Arabian Gulf, met with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani in Doha.

    “The day has developed a strong dynamic,” Habeck said, adding that the emir had pledged more support than Germany had expected.

    “Although we might still need Russian gas this year, in the future it won’t be so anymore. And this is only the start,” Habeck said.

    https://www.dw.com/en/qatar-to-help-germany-cut-reliance-on-russian-gas-says-minister/a-61191584

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @sudden death

    They still aren't considering a return to nuclear power though, so not really serious imo.
    And while getting rid of energy dependence on Russia is necessary, those Gulf states aren't unproblematic either.

    , @Blinky Bill
    @sudden death

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOeKR73XMAUc6-V.jpg

    Replies: @for-the-record

  169. @songbird
    @Barbarossa

    Thanks, that was funny! The end of it reminds me of this multicult potluck lunch we had in elementary school. The Irish soda bread I brought was not popular. LOL. TBH, I don't like it myself - especially when it has caraway seeds. I saw black pudding being made once, and will never forget it.

    Actually, had the big family feast today, corned beef and cabbage.

    BTW, one of my unrealized, minor life goals is to taste the lumper - the old variety of potato that was common in Ireland before the famine.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    I was just reading that the lumper has been brought back from near extinction. I’m not sure if you can get it on this side of the pond though. It actually looks like it would grow great in the heavy soil I have here. I may look and see if I can get seed potatoes to give it a whirl, since I’m planning on getting potatoes in the ground this spring. I’ll let you know if it happens.

    My girls have a good recipe for soda bread, but I have had some which were pretty uninspiring. I’ve never had it with caraway seeds so I can’t vouch for that. We do love bannock with lots of fresh butter especially though!

    • Thanks: songbird
  170. @sudden death
    Thanx, Putler ;)

    Germany and Qatar have agreed upon a long-term energy partnership to help cut reliance on Russian gas over the invasion of Ukraine, German Economic Minister Robert Habeck said Sunday.

    Habeck, who is on a two-nation visit to the Arabian Gulf, met with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani in Doha.

    "The day has developed a strong dynamic," Habeck said, adding that the emir had pledged more support than Germany had expected.

    "Although we might still need Russian gas this year, in the future it won't be so anymore. And this is only the start," Habeck said.
     

    https://www.dw.com/en/qatar-to-help-germany-cut-reliance-on-russian-gas-says-minister/a-61191584

    Replies: @German_reader, @Blinky Bill

    They still aren’t considering a return to nuclear power though, so not really serious imo.
    And while getting rid of energy dependence on Russia is necessary, those Gulf states aren’t unproblematic either.

  171. @LondonBob
    @Yellowface Anon

    I just think they use lockdowns to apply pressure on the US, remind them of their supply chain vulnerability, knowing the US really has no other alternatives. This is a theory Luke Gromen has, I agree with it, more plausible than zero covid fanaticism. I actually think sanctions on China are increasingly likely, as crazy as it sounds. Also I wonder how much China is now contemplating a move on Taiwan, I suspect that is far more likely.

    https://www.indianpunchline.com/china-sees-parallel-between-ukraine-taiwan/

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Yellowface Anon, @A123

    Lockdowns in China is now about cleaning up the private sector and centralizing power into the digital economy where the elite have a near-monopoly on, like the ones in the West. Since China is already so centralized, it’s even more so now.

    [MORE]

    I’ve already said that, if sanctions on Russia is about forcing the West to have the “green” transition and everyone to consider eating bugs, then sanctions on China has to be about using automation at home and UBI to make up for the manufacturing short fall.

    Sooner or later it has to be done, no matter how everyone will be worse off because of it, because Agenda 2030.

    China will move on Taiwan when Brandon starts sanctioning China and locks in the economic costs of any military action. The same logic that led to Putin moving onto Ukraine.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Yellowface Anon


    centralizing power into the digital economy where the elite have a near-monopoly on
     
    I need to clarify this, it's not the Big Tech as in the West where captains of industry follow orders (they have been heavily disciplined these few years), but directly by state and party organs. See health codes and state-organized direct grocery deliveries.
  172. @Ron Unz
    @JohnnyWalker123


    Does this sound at all plausible?
     
    The Ukrainian government claim that the Russians were about to remove Putin seems exceptionally, exceptionally implausible. I think it's the sort thing they'd probably say just before they surrender.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    “just before they surrender”

    Ukraine’s been winning this war to this point (certainly holding its own), so why in the world should they surrender? Sounds to me like you have a vested interest in seeing Russia win. I make this this conclusion where even you have stated that in the face of good scientific evidence, you’ve admitted to seeing things in a pro-Russian/anti-Ukrainian sort of way. The cards that you’re holding are becoming transparent to your readers…

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
    @Mr. Hack


    Ukraine’s been winning this war to this point (certainly holding its own), so why in the world should they surrender? Sounds to me like you have a vested interest in seeing Russia win...The cards that you’re holding are becoming transparent to your readers…
     
    Well, I think it's much more plausible than that Ukrainian government claim that Putin is about to be removed.

    I really don't have military expertise in these matters, so it's a question of looking at the contrasting arguments and deciding which seem more convincing.

    Aside from the analyses of Col. Douglas Macgregor and Scott Ritter, I thought that Larry Johnson made some very good points on his blogsite and also in the current Q&A by Mike Whitney that we just published:

    https://sonar21.com/russia-exploits-ukraines-western-flank/

    https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/larry-c-johnson-the-ukrainian-army-has-been-defeated-whats-left-is-mop-up/

    For example, Johnson argued that the total lack of attacks on the big Russian convoy near Kiev means that the Ukrainians had already lost essentially all their operational-level military capabilities. I still read through my morning newspapers that provide a view that's 100% different, but I think they're much less persuasive.

    The nice thing about all these contrasting predictions is that we'll probably know within a few weeks who was right and who was wrong. It's not like waiting thirty years for Global Warming.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Dmitry

  173. AP says:
    @Greasy William

    If he loses a lot more soldiers and the war becomes hopeless he might.
     
    2 problems here:

    1. There is no possibility for Ukraine to push out the RuA no matter what. Ukraine doesn't have the airpower or the command in control to launch anything besides uncoordinated, local counter attacks and there is no prospect for this changing during the course of the war.
    2. While Russia can hold against western sanctions indefinitely, the US has a strong interest in seeing this thing end as quickly as possible. The Democrats are already facing an apocalyptic midterms and for food and energy costs to rise further than they already have will have the US looking for a way out.

    Russia committed about 200,000 ground troops (including Donbas militia) to this operation. It has already lost a few thousand killed, double or triple that injured, heavily skewed towards elite troops (paratroopers and spetznaz) and hasn’t yet stormed any large city (if/when Mariupol falls it will be the first, but it is only 1/3 the size of Kharkiv and 1/2 the size of Odessa).
     
    Russia was expecting a walkover but, given time, they are capable of mobilizing another million men or so if it comes to that. And absolutely Putin would mobilize before accepting defeat. It's literally do or die for him. After Mariupol falls, the focus will shift to Kharkov. I do believe Russia has enough troops in theatre to take (by siege) Kharkov at least, which opens up the possibility of enveloping the Ukrainian eastern front. While Russia certainly doesn't have the strength to take all of it's objectives at once, it may be able to take them one at a time while reinforcing with Belarussians, mercenaries and conscripts.

    I would be interested in reading the link you shared but it is in Polish and I do not know how to read that language.

    Replies: @AP

    There is no possibility for Ukraine to push out the RuA no matter what. Ukraine doesn’t have the airpower or the command in control to launch anything besides uncoordinated, local counter attacks and there is no prospect for this changing during the course of the war

    I don’t think Ukraine has the capability to take or retake large cities but it can certainly wipe out advance forces and eliminate convoys through attrition. Ukraine has retaken a handful of small towns in the north and east, and around Mikolayiv.

    Russia was expecting a walkover but, given time, they are capable of mobilizing another million men or so if it comes to that

    This is the only way in which Russia would be able to occupy all or most of Ukraine.

    I do believe Russia has enough troops in theatre to take (by siege) Kharkov at least, which opens up the possibility of enveloping the Ukrainian eastern front. While Russia certainly doesn’t have the strength to take all of it’s objectives at once, it may be able to take them one at a time

    At the rate of troop and equipment losses, without mass conscription of 100,000s, Russia will run out of troops and equipment long before reaching its goals.

    Mariupol was supposedly on the verge of falling 2 days ago. Still hasn’t fallen yet. Kharkiv is 3 times the size of Mariupol and it isn’t even surrounded.

    • Disagree: Sean, Derer
    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
    @AP

    LOL. Some Nazis holed up in a few isolated apartment blocks means that Mariuopol hasn't fallen. They'll be dealt with whenever they're dealt with. According to this assessment WWII wasn't over until the last Jap stealing chicken from farms neighbouring his jungle hideout wasn't caught.

    Replies: @AP, @Sean

  174. @Dmitry
    @German_reader

    Perhaps true in most cases, unfortunately. But the writing of educated people like professors, is usually only interesting to the extent it is able to achieve more objectivity than exists in the normal kitchen talk. Humanities professors' writing should not be so different from things like science writing or instruction booklets, engineering textbooks, etc. It's only valuable how it matches to an objective or at least intersubjective reality, and can extract from the author's e.g. mood at the time or some particular self-interest.

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Re PRC media. It is very heterodox:

    – Google translate works very well now for Chinese (which has exceedingly simple grammar, unlike Japanese)

    – I agree with china-russia-all-the-way that Twitter is good resource. Getting a VPN is trivial in PRC and there are a lot of vloggers based within PRC.

    – I would follow this Chinese vlogger who provides translatable-captions. He lives in Germany and has a German husband. He’s pro-PRC and critical of US and German MSM. And has been fairly neutral on Ukraine conflict. This episode he’s speaking on (I’m using only Google and made no changes):

    感谢这面镜子 给中国预演 让中国少走弯路 | 只有中美拥有真正的数字主权

    Thanks to this mirror for rehearsing for China, so that China can avoid detours | Only China and the United States have true digital sovereignty

    – There are a lot of anti-PRC media obviously, Epoch Times (Falun Gong) is basically the mirror-image of Xinhua.

    – There’s a beautiful Russia girl named Katyusha who has a Mandarin speaking channel. She’s very pro-Russia and anti-US. Here’s video about how Russians are dealing with sanctions haha–

    • Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    heterodox
    I meant heterogeneous.

    The official CCP channel actually has some very high quality content, but only sometimes captioned, like this interview of Bangladeshi ambassador,
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rr6jA9iLhlo
    Street interview in NY about Ukraine. At the end black and Latino guy gets into heated argument
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bz9e4kH7LQ

    , @Barbarossa
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms


    There are a lot of anti-PRC media obviously, Epoch Times (Falun Gong) is basically the mirror-image of Xinhua.
     
    Epoch Times kind of cracks me up. They are marketed toward salt of the Earth conservative US folks fed up with shit-lib media, and they do put out some decent mass market material in that regard. Someone signed me up for a free trial subscription and it started coming in the mail. I was very puzzled by their hatred with the burning passion of 10,000 suns for the CCP, way more than is normal in the American press. I also picked up these constant references to the Falun Gong and Shen Yun. Very strange, I thought, as who cares about such things much in the US?

    It all made sense as I looked up who was putting it out.

    My parents subscribe to it, and I advise them to treat it as the propaganda organ it is, when it comes to their China stance. NYT or Epoch Times can be all fine and dandy if one is filtering it critically.

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    , @Dmitry
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    I was wondering if Xinhua or People's daily will give a good perspective, of what the party wants officially the population to receive?

    "Xinhua is the largest and most influential media organization in China, as well as the largest news agency as measured by the number of worldwide correspondents.Xinhua is a ministry-level institution subordinate to the State Council and is the highest ranking state media organ in the country alongside the People's Daily." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinhua_News_Agency

    From what I saw, they aren't that interested very in the war in Ukraine, but they are preparing anti-American government positions for it.

    Can you paraphrase on these stories which are the main Xinhua page.
    http://www.news.cn/politics/zywj/2022-03/21/c_1128490381.htm
    http://www.news.cn/politics/fjxzcjgxsd/index.htm
    http://www.news.cn/world/2022-03/21/c_1128489711.htm

    People's Daily website looks very internal focused as I see pictures of tunnels and Chinese sports athletes is their main pictures on the page.
    http://www.people.com.cn/

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    , @sher singh
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    You follow faggots and expect us to take you seriously?


    I would follow this Chinese vlogger who provides translatable-captions. He lives in Germany and has a German husband. He’s pro-PRC and critical of US and German MSM. And has been fairly neutral on Ukraine conflic
     
    Considering being pro Ukraine then.
    Thulean Friend lives in Sweden btw Barbarossa. The nice POC meme is there to signal to other white people.

    Our children/servants are well behaved. In reality because the brain views foreign men as akin to dangerous animals you either stand out or sit out of society. The difference between lumpenprole and middle class is assertiveness.

    https://razib.substack.com/p/getting-a-sense-of-the-russian-soul?s=r

    Good article where Razib says Ukraine is a 'Russia' wholly in Europe with a soul not split between 2 continents. It's similar to other inter war ethnic nation states while the RF is of an imperial nature.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/090204121504.htm#:~:text=Summary%3A,members%20of%20the%20out%2Dgroup.

    See reference

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

  175. @German_reader
    @LondonBob


    Pat Lang seems to have suffered a stroke or been pressurised like Napolitano was. Peculiar.

     

    Lang commented on the war in Ukraine as recently as two days ago (I doubt it's worth reading though):
    https://turcopolier.com/
    https://turcopolier.com/how-many-dead-and-wounded-russian-boys-and-men-so-far/

    Replies: @LondonBob

    I mean in the sense he has had a complete personality change, like after when people have had a stroke. People ask Larry about it in the comments thread of the article linked.

    Wow, I’m aware there were differences of opinion about the Ukraine-Russian war but didn’t know Larry and Patrick were actually banned from Turcopolier. Their essays were always very popular and elicited lots of comments.

    Yes. My piece on an Alternative Scenario in Ukraine got over 85,000 hits. Unheard of on Pat’s blog. He’s lost his mojo.

    SST is becoming infested with neocon npc’s and it looks like TTG is moving in to take over.

    Meanwhile, PL is using obvious msm propaganda as his sources and seems to be getting testier by the day.

    I think he is suffering a serious cognitive decline. This is not the man I once called friend and mentor.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @LondonBob


    I mean in the sense he has had a complete personality change, like after when people have had a stroke.
     
    tbh I stopped taking him seriously during the pandemic (iirc he considered it a deliberate Chinese Communist plot and fantasized about retaliation).

    Replies: @Yevardian

  176. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Dmitry

    Re PRC media. It is very heterodox:

    - Google translate works very well now for Chinese (which has exceedingly simple grammar, unlike Japanese)

    - I agree with china-russia-all-the-way that Twitter is good resource. Getting a VPN is trivial in PRC and there are a lot of vloggers based within PRC.

    - I would follow this Chinese vlogger who provides translatable-captions. He lives in Germany and has a German husband. He's pro-PRC and critical of US and German MSM. And has been fairly neutral on Ukraine conflict. This episode he's speaking on (I'm using only Google and made no changes):


    感谢这面镜子 给中国预演 让中国少走弯路 | 只有中美拥有真正的数字主权

    Thanks to this mirror for rehearsing for China, so that China can avoid detours | Only China and the United States have true digital sovereignty

     

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysmpSAwcchY

    - There are a lot of anti-PRC media obviously, Epoch Times (Falun Gong) is basically the mirror-image of Xinhua.

    - There's a beautiful Russia girl named Katyusha who has a Mandarin speaking channel. She's very pro-Russia and anti-US. Here's video about how Russians are dealing with sanctions haha--
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gy07fElTTgo

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms, @Barbarossa, @Dmitry, @sher singh

    heterodox
    I meant heterogeneous.

    The official CCP channel actually has some very high quality content, but only sometimes captioned, like this interview of Bangladeshi ambassador,

    Street interview in NY about Ukraine. At the end black and Latino guy gets into heated argument

  177. @Ron Unz
    @Barbarossa


    I had been hearing doubts that the Russians even had operable hypersonics and that it may take years for them to be usable on the battlefield. This strike seems to put an end to that speculation.
     
    That's exactly my impression. Former CIA Analyst Larry Johnson has always seemed a pretty solid guy, and he had some interesting things to say about the missile strikes:

    https://sonar21.com/russia-exploits-ukraines-western-flank/

    He seems to think that there were 200+ KIA in that target near the Polish border, including lots of British and American military and intelligence personnel despite the MSM still claiming only 30-odd Ukrainians. That seems a big positive to me since the more high-value British and Americans the Russians kill, the more likely our military may pressure our political morons to start being sensible.

    In effect, the campaign gives the Russians a nice opportunity to test some of their hypersonics under battlefield conditions. Assuming they're working as claimed, that might give Putin outright military superiority over NATO, with the capability of annihilating our conventional forces.

    If this is even half-correct, the continuing endless American arrogance and aggression of the Neocons looks even more totally insane than before.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123, @LondonBob, @Triteleia Laxa, @Barbarossa

    the more high-value British and Americans the Russians kill, the more likely our military may pressure our political morons to start being sensible.

    I’m wouldn’t count on it working that way. It’s not like the military guys were advocating for a sane approach to Afghanistan, for example. The military brass have a hammer and all they know how to do is hit stuff, as far as I can tell.

    Putin outright military superiority over NATO, with the capability of annihilating our conventional forces.

    As others have said as well, I wouldn’t count on Russia having lots of those laying about. It seems more plausible to me that they have a few operational and can project some force with them, but would be completely unable to use them to any devastating advantage. That’s rank speculation on my part, but I don’t think Russia has the budget to have cranked hypersonics out on some super fast time-frame.

    Also, I haven’t been all that impressed by Russian military performance or readiness thus far. Setting aside all the fog of war and partisan wishful thinking from all sides, it seems underwhelming. My assessment of Russian military might has been downgraded from what I had expected previous to the Ukraine invasion. In an all out war with NATO, I would expect Russia to get beaten badly. Even financially based constraints alone would probably see munitions run low far before better financed countries in Europe and the US.

    Sure, the Pentagon wastes immense amounts of money on boondoggles and ineffectual bloat, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have a lot of hard resources at their disposal too. If it came to a hot war with Russia, I would tend to believe that they would be playing hardball since Russian regime change would be such a Pentagon/ Neo-con wet dream.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
    @Barbarossa


    As others have said as well, I wouldn’t count on Russia having lots of those laying about. It seems more plausible to me that they have a few operational and can project some force with them, but would be completely unable to use them to any devastating advantage...If it came to a hot war with Russia, I would tend to believe that they would be playing hardball since Russian regime change would be such a Pentagon/ Neo-con wet dream.
     
    Well, at least we (apparently) know that some of the hypersonics exist and they work. My impression is that just a few of them would be enough to sink an American carrier, which would have gigantic international geostrategic impact.

    And couldn't a relatively small number of those missiles destroy our NATO military airbases? I also have the strong impression that Russian air defense systems are much better than American ones, which is why countries prefer to buy them. And don't the Russian land forces vastly outnumber NATO's greatly diminished numbers?

    I think there's a 0% chance that Putin wants a war with NATO in Europe, but if he did, I'd guess he'd have the clear initial advantage.

    Again, I claim ZERO expertise in these military issues, but this is the impression I've been getting from reading the views of those who apparently do.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Barbarossa, @Wokechoke, @prime noticer, @SimplePseudonymicHandle

    , @Sean
    @Barbarossa

    During the 80s at the zenith of Soviet military might, Mearsheimer opined that a Soviet conventional offensive would find it all but impossible to roll onto Western Europe. In 1982 scores of Syrian MIGs were easily destroyed by the Israelis. In 1994 war with Chechia saw a Russian brigade surrounded and abandoning it vehicle after heavy losses in unban fighting (23 officers including a colonel), endemic poor morale and abandoning of vehicles some of which were sabotaged by Russians themselves to avoid advancing in them, and the KIA of generals including a major-general. (the only success was a daring airport seizure by paratroopers, this explaining the disastrous airborne operation on the first day near Kiev), and of course endemic drunkenness' even at the very top ranks. In 2000 the ultramodern sub Kursk, pride of the Russian navy was lost with all hands in an accident. Every supposed strength the Russian armed forces (Spetsnaz, Air Superiority, obliterating artillery with huge stocks of ammunition, generating of force from Battalion Tactical Groups /command and control of divisions, and even training in something as basic as how to respond to ambushes has been proven to be an illusion created by the Western military industrial complex and their shill experts. The only advantages Russia has are non material : force of decision at the very top allied to a certain fatalism in the ranks. It only seems they are formidable because of endemic West European unwillingness to pay for their own defence, which is an indication that the Germans do not, and even during the Cold War privately did not, take the Russian conventional threat very seriously.

    I think Russia is so weak and yet fixated on its military pride that it would terminate a war with Nato by using nuclear weapons, because no Russia leader could surrender to Nato and stay in power. Were Putin to order a withdrawal from Ukraine then he would be in danger of being toppled. Wars cannot be fought with nuclear weapons and once you go nuclear you go nuclear for good. Although the Russian strategic nuclear forces in an all out launch are probably far less likely to hit their targets than has previously been thought, increased readiness, makes a panicked mass launch by Russia after nuclear escalation has begun is much more likely. The US would realise after the ICBMs began landing in the US that the country was effectively destroyed, and in addition to annihilating Russia the US would use their excess nukes on China to stop it dominating the world. China could only be targeting the same places as Russia, which would have already been destroyed so no cost to the US in hitting the Chinese. In a nutshell China would not be allowed to be a bystander that inherited global primacy through a US- Russia thermonuclear mass exchange. That is one of the reasons China is going to stop Russia getting pushed into a corner.

  178. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Dmitry

    Re PRC media. It is very heterodox:

    - Google translate works very well now for Chinese (which has exceedingly simple grammar, unlike Japanese)

    - I agree with china-russia-all-the-way that Twitter is good resource. Getting a VPN is trivial in PRC and there are a lot of vloggers based within PRC.

    - I would follow this Chinese vlogger who provides translatable-captions. He lives in Germany and has a German husband. He's pro-PRC and critical of US and German MSM. And has been fairly neutral on Ukraine conflict. This episode he's speaking on (I'm using only Google and made no changes):


    感谢这面镜子 给中国预演 让中国少走弯路 | 只有中美拥有真正的数字主权

    Thanks to this mirror for rehearsing for China, so that China can avoid detours | Only China and the United States have true digital sovereignty

     

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysmpSAwcchY

    - There are a lot of anti-PRC media obviously, Epoch Times (Falun Gong) is basically the mirror-image of Xinhua.

    - There's a beautiful Russia girl named Katyusha who has a Mandarin speaking channel. She's very pro-Russia and anti-US. Here's video about how Russians are dealing with sanctions haha--
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gy07fElTTgo

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms, @Barbarossa, @Dmitry, @sher singh

    There are a lot of anti-PRC media obviously, Epoch Times (Falun Gong) is basically the mirror-image of Xinhua.

    Epoch Times kind of cracks me up. They are marketed toward salt of the Earth conservative US folks fed up with shit-lib media, and they do put out some decent mass market material in that regard. Someone signed me up for a free trial subscription and it started coming in the mail. I was very puzzled by their hatred with the burning passion of 10,000 suns for the CCP, way more than is normal in the American press. I also picked up these constant references to the Falun Gong and Shen Yun. Very strange, I thought, as who cares about such things much in the US?

    It all made sense as I looked up who was putting it out.

    My parents subscribe to it, and I advise them to treat it as the propaganda organ it is, when it comes to their China stance. NYT or Epoch Times can be all fine and dandy if one is filtering it critically.

    • Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Barbarossa

    Yes, Epoch Times in US is largely in line with Fox. But in Germany is in line with AfD, which is not very anti-CCP,


    In September 2017, the German edition, The Epoch Times Deutschland, which became Web-only in 2012, was described by online magazine The China File as aligned with the German far-right, and attractive to supporters of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and the anti-immigrant group Pegida.[4]

     

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times#Editorial_stance

    There's also segment of lefty whites/Jews who are into Falun Gong, AaronB might want to look into it.

    The founder Li Hongzhi is a master PUA really, he told followers that they will save money by not needing to go to the doctor, thereby taking advantage of Chinese inclination for acquisitiveness.
  179. @Mr. Hack
    @Ron Unz

    "just before they surrender"

    Ukraine's been winning this war to this point (certainly holding its own), so why in the world should they surrender? Sounds to me like you have a vested interest in seeing Russia win. I make this this conclusion where even you have stated that in the face of good scientific evidence, you've admitted to seeing things in a pro-Russian/anti-Ukrainian sort of way. The cards that you're holding are becoming transparent to your readers...

    Replies: @Ron Unz

    Ukraine’s been winning this war to this point (certainly holding its own), so why in the world should they surrender? Sounds to me like you have a vested interest in seeing Russia win…The cards that you’re holding are becoming transparent to your readers…

    Well, I think it’s much more plausible than that Ukrainian government claim that Putin is about to be removed.

    I really don’t have military expertise in these matters, so it’s a question of looking at the contrasting arguments and deciding which seem more convincing.

    Aside from the analyses of Col. Douglas Macgregor and Scott Ritter, I thought that Larry Johnson made some very good points on his blogsite and also in the current Q&A by Mike Whitney that we just published:

    https://sonar21.com/russia-exploits-ukraines-western-flank/

    https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/larry-c-johnson-the-ukrainian-army-has-been-defeated-whats-left-is-mop-up/

    For example, Johnson argued that the total lack of attacks on the big Russian convoy near Kiev means that the Ukrainians had already lost essentially all their operational-level military capabilities. I still read through my morning newspapers that provide a view that’s 100% different, but I think they’re much less persuasive.

    The nice thing about all these contrasting predictions is that we’ll probably know within a few weeks who was right and who was wrong. It’s not like waiting thirty years for Global Warming.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Ron Unz


    ...we’ll probably know within a few weeks who was right and who was wrong. It’s not like waiting thirty years for Global Warming.
     
    The word 'probably' is the salient point. Given the essentially PR nature of the Western public world today, we will probably get the same loud, screaming narratives as with Global Warming and C19. Or Trump and Brexit. They think that dominating the mind-space is all that matters.

    If Russia takes Donbass-Black See coast, but stays out of Kiev - they will call it a "glorious victory". If they take Kiev, but stay out of Galicia, another "victory". If they take all of Ukraine (that would be very stupid) we would hear about "economy collapse", "yellow-and-blue demonstrations", "resistance", etc...

    After the Chechen war the Western experts confidently predicted decades of mayhem. Chechens are fighting Ukies now, none of the experts acknowledge how wrong they were.

    The West is un-capable off admitting a loss. Like the late medieval Church it is always Ad Majorem Dei Gloriam, it is always complex, or too early for them. We see it here: Laxa has called it for Kiev after 10 days, AP has it 40%, Mr Hack is literally out of his mind dancing a victory dance. They live off hope as losing sides always do. But hope when it becomes hopeless turns into hysteria.

    So yes, we may wait for thirty years. If Greta freezes to death she will scream till the end that "the planet is too damn hot". Or even better, that the "global warming caused the freeze". That's just the way they are.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Ron Unz, @Seraphim

    , @Dmitry
    @Ron Unz


    question of looking at the contrasting arguments and deciding which seem more convincing.
     
    Maybe this was the limit for amateur citizens to view distant wars in the 1980s. But, with the internet, the amateur netizens have every day received additionally a flow of hundreds of videos,* hundreds of photos, of the military fighting.


    As an amateur, most of our views will be idiotic, compared to professionals asked in the media. It's going to be biased by which side we receive information from. But it's still more interesting to try to think about topics yourself, than just receive more mediated information.

    The most important thing in the war, is the equipment used. And there is open information, if not always reliable, to look for equipment and technology.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Russian_Ground_Forces Even a lot of the military specialists, are just looking there , before they go to talk to CNN.

    And you can predict the future battles, like what will be the result if there will be a future mobilization of the reserves in the Russian military side. E.g. you can see what equipment will be mobilized and what weapons are delivered to Ukraine. Tactics will be determined a lot just by the equipment available to each side.


    -

    *
    Forums like this include a flow, although this one censors any of the violent content from the war
    https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/?f=flair_name%3A%22Video%22
    https://www.reddit.com/r/DestroyedTanks/?f=flair_name%3A%22Russo-Ukrainian%20War%22

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Ron Unz

  180. @utu
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Sean's trolling is always very dense and very dark. Often laced with dark insinuations and even with hints of physical threats (e.g. you are wrong because if you were right CIA or Mossad or KGB would have killed you). There is strong fetish of power in his writing and Jewish or rather Israel's power in particular.

    Actually the support Putin gets among the rightoids as seen at unz-dot-com who have no Russian connections to large extent comes form the power fetish which is more common on the right end of the spectrum. I would hope they would get cured from it once Pootie-Poot gets his ass kicked but they will just shift to another fantasy action hero.

    But the dominant reason is being propagandized for years that the US, the West are doomed, unfixable and evil and that somewhere beyond the ocean is there a lone and brave man who rides bare chested on bears and fights the evils of the West.

    And to be fair there are some libertarian useful idiots among them who believe in the fantasy of isolationism as if we were still living in the steam age of the 19th century and communicating by smoke signals.

    Replies: @Sean, @Brás Cubas, @Mark G.

    I think you will like this:

    • Thanks: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Brás Cubas

    Russian vaccination rate: 50%
    Ukrainian vaccination rate: 37%

    Chinese vaccination rate: 88%
    Taiwanese vaccination rate: 77%

    , @Yellowface Anon
    @Brás Cubas

    My explanation for this is being pro-vaxx tends to see things thru a moralistic lens so that Ukraine's "democracy/little men" must be defended against Russia/Putin at all costs, even if that means WWIII and down the road; being anti-vaxx tends to be cynical, and they either detest whatever the neocon establishment does to increase strife (anti-establishment/realist), think US/Canada should be isolationist (libertarian/conservative), or downright support Russia.

    Replies: @Brás Cubas

    , @utu
    @Brás Cubas

    Not surprising at all. The belief formation created by covid disinformation operation for and by covid deniers and anti-vaxxers appealed toand enhanced non-conformism, opposition to government and complete distrust of MSM narratives. If you end up believing that TPTB represented by the MSM and the government want to take your rights and want you to be infertile, to have brain nano implants delivered or to be dead by vaccination certainly you are not going to believe anything else flowing from the MSM. So when Russia and Putin are bad in the MSM then the deplorable rabble will believe the opposite and will support Putin seeing him as one of them who also fights TPTB who stand behind it all. Not much prodding is needed to get on the pro Kremlin path.

    The covid disinformation operation was run from the very beginning from Lubyanka. Look at operatives like Mike Whitney or Israel Shamir who were producing themselves at TUR. Interestingly Ron Unz did not recognize the utility of that disinformation until much later though he admired effectiveness of Andrew Anglin disinformation efforts and persisted within the orthodox interpretation of the pandemic while developing his own disinformation theory of covid origin that predictably blamed the US and exonerated China which however hinged on the assumption that the virus was real and the mortality was high justifying the countermeasures which put him at odds with Kremlin based covid disinformation represented by Mike Whitney who among others was targeting the libertarian nut jobs.

    Ron Unz wanted to help China very much but did not realize that Lubyanka people subcontracted by Beijing knew much better how to go about it. They drove the argument about covid to the ad absurdum point while Ron Unz approach was the old fashion rational cause-and-effect narrative. They succeeded while his theory did not get traction. But he did not make the same mistake when it came to Ukraine. He was 100% with Kremlin from the day one. Mike Whitney was recalled from Lubyanka's covid war and thrown on the Ukrainian front.

    The question is how early Lubyanka people recognized that the army of deplorable rabble with their anti-vaxxer media resources could be utilized as channels for propaganda for Putin war with Ukraine. Certainly they used the anti-vaxxers channels to their advantage when the Freedom Convoy was launched in mid January 2022 to paralyze Ottawa's government by which they gained support among the rightoids all over the world. Subsequent Kremlin claims of American biolabs in Ukraine nicely clinched anti-vaxxers with Putin cause of subjugating Ukraine as Kremlin propaganda about the neo-Nazis in Ukraine was ineffective among the rightoids who often entertain sympathies for the real Nazis. "Nazi' is not a derogatory power word for them but 'fauci' and 'biolab' are.

    Replies: @Ron Unz, @Brás Cubas, @Yellowface Anon

  181. @Brás Cubas
    @utu

    I think you will like this:
    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1505578950722007040

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Yellowface Anon, @utu

    Russian vaccination rate: 50%
    Ukrainian vaccination rate: 37%

    [MORE]

    Chinese vaccination rate: 88%
    Taiwanese vaccination rate: 77%

    • Thanks: Brás Cubas
  182. @AP
    @Beckow


    You took a 40-60 guess that Kiev will win. It depends on how we define a win: if there is no NATO in Ukraine, Donbass separates, and Russia controls the Black See coast – who won?
     
    I was quite clear in saying that a Ukrainian win would mean that Russia gives up, is forced to leave because the losses become unsustainable and gets much less than what it wants (no more than status quo ante bellum plus perhaps a face saving NATO denial). Ukraine still gets EU integration, militarization, and gets rebuilt with Russian reparation money (confiscated assets?). War has brought Ukraine together and has thoroughly de-Russified it in loyalty and identity.

    I'd guess 40% chance of this happening.

    60% chance of one of various types of losses, from mild (further territory loss, no NATO but EU integration okay) to worse (all of Putin's prewar conditions) to catastrophic (full occupation, either as annexation or under puppet regime - practically no difference between the two).

    You boast that the Ukie army has not collapsed. First, it is early, one month into it, most wars are 3-6 months affairs or longer.
     
    Karlin gave a 90% chance of collapse within one week, 40% within 2 days. Apparently Putin's leadership tea assumed the same. I don't recall if you gave specific timeline but you implied something similar.

    France fell to Germany in 6 weeks. Poland fell to Germany in 5 weeks. Iraq fell to the USA in 5 weeks.

    In 3 days it will have been 4 weeks. And Russia has already slowed down; it's been stopped in the north and east and has made small gains in the south. I don't recall if either Germany or the USA slowed down in their invasions, I suspect not. Russia has already wasted much of its elite paratrooper and spetznaz units, too, so it won't be getting easier for them.

    Nobody will look back in pride at these pointless sacrifices.
     
    Nonsense, people tend to celebrate their brave fighters, even and often especially in lost battles. Remember the Alamo? The Serbian Field of he Blackbirds? Failed Warsaw Uprising? Brest Fortress? If, as is sadly likely, Mariupol falls it might fall into that category.

    Replies: @Greasy William, @Beckow

    …Russia gives up, is forced to leave…gets much less than what it wants – no more than status quo ante bellum plus perhaps a face saving NATO denial

    That almost exactly describes the last 3 or 4 US wars: Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Vietnam…a string of losses. Somehow we don’t see headlines like: “Catastrophic US losses continue. Third war in a row is lost. The world questions US military capabilities…” Why is that? The West doesn’t have the freedom to call things as they are. They don’t even seem to understand consistency.

    You give that 40%, looks high, I would say 10-15%. About the same as a NATO-Poland intervention from the West and a big boom that may follow. I would not mark that as a win for either side.

    I implied a lot of things, they mostly turned out to be true, but it is a continuum and I never thought this would be quick. Wars are lengthy affairs. It took at least a 2-month build-up and Ukraine is a very big country, larger than France, Iraq, etc…

    …people tend to celebrate their brave fighters, even and often especially in lost battles. Remember the Alamo?…

    Alamo was a lost battle in a war that Texans won immediately after that. Mariupol is different. It looks like Ukraine will not be in Mariupol, the ‘brave fighters’ there – let’s just call them that – will disappear and be remembered remotely, probably more in Winnipeg than in Kiev.

    You have ideals, but you miss the realities of life and history: winning matters. In wars all sides cheat, lie, say anything to advance their cause. But wars eventually end and people have to live. I have watched videos from the war zone, incl. Mariupol. People show determined neutrality, don’t take sides, don’t denounce. They repeat that they want the war to be over – there is a very ambiguous attitude toward Kiev-Zelensky, often an accusation that they failed, brought this on and don’t know what to do. Most people wait to see who prevails and will then accommodate.

  183. @AP
    @Greasy William


    There is no possibility for Ukraine to push out the RuA no matter what. Ukraine doesn’t have the airpower or the command in control to launch anything besides uncoordinated, local counter attacks and there is no prospect for this changing during the course of the war
     
    I don’t think Ukraine has the capability to take or retake large cities but it can certainly wipe out advance forces and eliminate convoys through attrition. Ukraine has retaken a handful of small towns in the north and east, and around Mikolayiv.

    Russia was expecting a walkover but, given time, they are capable of mobilizing another million men or so if it comes to that
     
    This is the only way in which Russia would be able to occupy all or most of Ukraine.

    I do believe Russia has enough troops in theatre to take (by siege) Kharkov at least, which opens up the possibility of enveloping the Ukrainian eastern front. While Russia certainly doesn’t have the strength to take all of it’s objectives at once, it may be able to take them one at a time
     
    At the rate of troop and equipment losses, without mass conscription of 100,000s, Russia will run out of troops and equipment long before reaching its goals.

    Mariupol was supposedly on the verge of falling 2 days ago. Still hasn’t fallen yet. Kharkiv is 3 times the size of Mariupol and it isn’t even surrounded.

    Replies: @Commentator Mike

    LOL. Some Nazis holed up in a few isolated apartment blocks means that Mariuopol hasn’t fallen. They’ll be dealt with whenever they’re dealt with. According to this assessment WWII wasn’t over until the last Jap stealing chicken from farms neighbouring his jungle hideout wasn’t caught.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Commentator Mike


    Some Nazis holed up in a few isolated apartment blocks means that Mariuopol hasn’t fallen. They’ll be dealt with whenever they’re dealt with. According to this assessment WWII wasn’t over until the last Jap stealing chicken from farms neighbouring his jungle hideout wasn’t caught
     
    We already know you live in fantasy-land concerning Ukraine (14,000 civilians killed by Kiev regime..) and this is further confirmation.

    If resistance was down to only a few buildings why did Russia demand that the city surrender?

    Reality is that Russians have advanced but large part of the city still in Ukrainian hands. Russia will continue to take casualties while trying to take it :



    https://twitter.com/rusciswar/status/1505936799771811842?s=21

    Replies: @Commentator Mike, @Commentator Mike

    , @Sean
    @Commentator Mike

    Mariupol was the target of a Donbass offensive years ago so it makes sense that it would had substantial prepared defences already existing and added to early this year, because it was thought to be the most likely target. The units stationed around Mariupol could not have been left to roam free, they had to be pinned and forced inside the city. Most of the military infrastructure of Ukraine was built during the Cold War so is over in the West, which is also where there is also rugged and partially wooded terrain. Kiev is difficult to encircle because of the ravines near it (probably why the outrageously vulnerable assault on the cargo airport was thought worth a try).

    Given the above difficulties, the balance of independent military opinion was an operation to take the Donbas and Mariupol was the most likely, and even that was considered only 49% probable to actually happen until three weeks ago. It is only a month since Zelinsky was telling Biden to stop predicting an invasion because it was hurting tourism! The Russians got the element of surprise because the extent of the invasion was more than a little ambitious; “no plan survives contact with the enemy” so things have gone about as well as an objective observer would have expected for Russia, with casualties not prohibitive for what that have achieved so far. I think in the next two weeks Russia needs to begin the reduction of Kiev, which at present they likely do not have sufficient artillery ammunition in hand for while expending their stocks elswhere.

    Whether the Russians could continue to make reasonable progress at a bearable cost while America supplies cutting edge smart weapons to Ukraine in large maybe unlimited quantities remains to be seen. The already announced medium and long range AA missiles being given to Ukraine in combination with Stingers will ground the Russian airforce but not the Ukraine's drones, which there may be swarms of in a month. Some of them such as the tiny switchback have been closely guarded secret weapons of special forces hunting high value targets hitherto. If they get produced in the numbers the US is capable of and given to Ukraine, such havoc will be wreaked on the Russian army, it will spend all its time praying for rainstorms

    Replies: @Dmitry

  184. @LondonBob
    @German_reader

    I mean in the sense he has had a complete personality change, like after when people have had a stroke. People ask Larry about it in the comments thread of the article linked.


    Wow, I’m aware there were differences of opinion about the Ukraine-Russian war but didn’t know Larry and Patrick were actually banned from Turcopolier. Their essays were always very popular and elicited lots of comments.
     

    Yes. My piece on an Alternative Scenario in Ukraine got over 85,000 hits. Unheard of on Pat’s blog. He’s lost his mojo.
     

    SST is becoming infested with neocon npc’s and it looks like TTG is moving in to take over.

    Meanwhile, PL is using obvious msm propaganda as his sources and seems to be getting testier by the day.
     

    I think he is suffering a serious cognitive decline. This is not the man I once called friend and mentor.
     

    Replies: @German_reader

    I mean in the sense he has had a complete personality change, like after when people have had a stroke.

    tbh I stopped taking him seriously during the pandemic (iirc he considered it a deliberate Chinese Communist plot and fantasized about retaliation).

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @German_reader


    tbh I stopped taking him seriously during the pandemic
     
    Yes, along with at least >60% of Unz's columnists, although we can't blame Our Benevolent Overlord for that, we saw it across all alternative media. I really opened my eyes to how suggestible practically anyone can be.

    LOL. Some Nazis holed up in a few isolated apartment blocks means that Mariuopol hasn’t fallen.
     
    I'm getting really tired of this constant Nazi/Ukronazi absolute nonsense, even if you don't particularly care for the Ukrainian government, this bandying around of 'Nazi' everywhere is just totally meaningless. How can one talk of a 'banderist state' that simultaneously sponsors sodomite parades, pursues neoliberal economic policies (as far as any economic plan was pursued at all), hosts large numbers of pajeet and African students, and has a Western cargo-cult? Godwin's law isn't any less stupid when rightoids use it.

    Replies: @Commentator Mike, @James Forrestal

  185. @utu
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Sean's trolling is always very dense and very dark. Often laced with dark insinuations and even with hints of physical threats (e.g. you are wrong because if you were right CIA or Mossad or KGB would have killed you). There is strong fetish of power in his writing and Jewish or rather Israel's power in particular.

    Actually the support Putin gets among the rightoids as seen at unz-dot-com who have no Russian connections to large extent comes form the power fetish which is more common on the right end of the spectrum. I would hope they would get cured from it once Pootie-Poot gets his ass kicked but they will just shift to another fantasy action hero.

    But the dominant reason is being propagandized for years that the US, the West are doomed, unfixable and evil and that somewhere beyond the ocean is there a lone and brave man who rides bare chested on bears and fights the evils of the West.

    And to be fair there are some libertarian useful idiots among them who believe in the fantasy of isolationism as if we were still living in the steam age of the 19th century and communicating by smoke signals.

    Replies: @Sean, @Brás Cubas, @Mark G.

    And to be fair there are some libertarian useful idiots among them who believe in the fantasy of isolationism as if we were still living in the steam age of the 19th century and communicating by smoke signals.

    You don’t need to go back to the 19th century to see the U.S. not intervening in Europe. The U.S. didn’t start a war with Russia when they invaded Hungary in 1956 or when they invaded Czechoslovakia in 1968.

  186. @Yevardian
    @Dacian Julien Soros


    Can you read Romanian? I find current-year Romanian literature as formulaic as current-year world literature or current-year pop music.
     
    Yes, although I've barely used it all in years. I'll just say I have close personal ties to the country. And yes, although I don't follow that closely, its expected, probably most recent authors I read were Sadoveanu and Urmuz, both pretty old.
    But at least until the mid 20th century Romania had a respectable number of strong writers for a country of its size.

    @Beckow

    Leaving this forum is in my view unnecessary, it is one of the few places where different perspectives meet. This war is the most important event in a long time, it will impact everything.
     

    It's more just a periodic break from internet/news I regularly take, when I start noticing it starts effecting output in real things. There's also been escalating crisis in Armenia (again), since Azerbaijan has been repeatedly violating the ceasefire recently, and blocking gas and imports (during a freezing winter) to the remnants of Artsakh in an attempt induce panic. Its also unclear how long Russian troops will remain to protect the corridor with this fucking Ukrainian war dragging.. I course, I don't expect average reader to take interest in Turkic bloodfeuds (small-country nationalisms injecting their grievances into every discussion), but I mention it as part of the post-Soviet context, a lot in the wider region is hinging on events in Ukraine.

    @Agathoklis

    Not really helpful, it was adequately written and seemed relatively non-partisan, you could at least point out what you found wrong with it (it was just a popular history for an educated Anglo layperson that knows little of the modern state, I don't know what you expect), or recommend something better.

    @BlinkyBill

    Neither here nor there, but apart from personal distaste, the things about Indian culture (their languages and visage aside) I find really repulsive is the pervasive dichotomy between self-abasing servility and churlish arrogance you get there as a result of the caste-system.
    And its all overlaid by this reverence deep feelings of racial inferiority, and a practical reverence for stasis and total complacence with conditions of filth and despair that forms a part of their traditional religions. I don't think its a coincidence that Western charlatans, degenerates and drug-addicts have taken inspiration from there since at least the late 19th century.

    @Dmitri


    Have you read Herodotus yet? I feel like I remember German Reader was going to advise us to read him.
     
    I think like a lot of people, I've examined certain passages extensively, or referred to it as an index for sourcing various topics, but I haven't sat and read through the whole work, no. I've always been more interested in the Hellenistic and Late-Roman/early-Byzantine periods, since they deal with very topical issues like demographic change/replacement, tensions in multiethnic societies, imperial overextension, and state collapse. So in general I'm more familiar with authors like Polybios, Diodoros or Prokopios, than Herodotos.

    Herodotos of course belongs to the 'Golden Age' of Greece, perhaps all antiquity, but also for that reason it has always disproportionate attention relative to all other periods. Greeks were artificially copying the 'Attic' dialect of Greek (although Herodotos wrote Ionian, he's a little earlier), using a huge array of long-obselete diacritics, even as the speech had evolved to Koine, then Byzantine forms, in some form, practically until the end of Katharevousa.


    Maybe Unamuno could be interesting? I never read his books though. Probably, Mikel has a view. This is the kind of book I would look for as a souvenir in Spain.
     
    Yeah, I remember reading a book of his on Christianity a while ago, but I didn't quite 'grab' me. He also seems to have held very 'cuck' like disparaging views on his own native language and culture, which turns me off. I mean, it can be justified, but to me the superiority of Basque society over Castillian conditions (as a whole) just seems very obvious.

    Btw, I started on a book on recent China that looks interesting, even if it's obviously from some hyperpartisan neocon hawk angle (and apparently, written by a pajeet), its not hiding that fact. So far, from the introduction, its clear the author disdains emotional language, looks to be a worthwhile read. Perhaps Our Benevolent Overlord himself would be interested in taking a look?

    https://www.amazon.com.au/Long-Game-Strategy-Displacement-American/dp/0197527914

    Replies: @sher singh, @Mikel, @Dmitry

    Yeah, I remember reading a book of his on Christianity a while ago, but I didn’t quite ‘grab’ me. He also seems to have held very ‘cuck’ like disparaging views on his own native language and culture, which turns me off.

    Yes, Some of Unamuno’s work was required reading at high school and it didn’t cause any lasting impression on me either.

    His disparaging Basque culture is not surprising though. He only had partial Basque ancestry and he was born in Bilbao, of all places, at a time of big industrial growth that must have contrasted sharply with the Basque rural surroundings.

    My favorite novelist in Spanish language used to be Pio Baroja. Like Unamuno, he was a member of the prolific Generation of 98, formed around writers influenced by the final defeat of the Spanish imperial dream after the Spanish-American War. Baroja also had Basque and Italian roots but he was much more assimilated to the Basque Country, having been born in the more autochthonous Donostia. As I remember his novels, he used to portray very appealing and credible characters of adventurers born in the maritime side of the Basque lands, where he was born.

    But I haven’t read any fiction for years and the last time I did I went for Swedish dark humor so I’m not sure how valuable my opinion might be for a very well read person like you.

  187. AP says:
    @Commentator Mike
    @AP

    LOL. Some Nazis holed up in a few isolated apartment blocks means that Mariuopol hasn't fallen. They'll be dealt with whenever they're dealt with. According to this assessment WWII wasn't over until the last Jap stealing chicken from farms neighbouring his jungle hideout wasn't caught.

    Replies: @AP, @Sean

    Some Nazis holed up in a few isolated apartment blocks means that Mariuopol hasn’t fallen. They’ll be dealt with whenever they’re dealt with. According to this assessment WWII wasn’t over until the last Jap stealing chicken from farms neighbouring his jungle hideout wasn’t caught

    We already know you live in fantasy-land concerning Ukraine (14,000 civilians killed by Kiev regime..) and this is further confirmation.

    If resistance was down to only a few buildings why did Russia demand that the city surrender?

    Reality is that Russians have advanced but large part of the city still in Ukrainian hands. Russia will continue to take casualties while trying to take it :

    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
    @AP


    If resistance was down to only a few buildings why did Russia demand that the city surrender?
     
    Everybody and his dog by know know this is to save civilians.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6UzUMrEEXM

    Replies: @AP

    , @Commentator Mike
    @AP

    Mariuopol

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rZK7o-pyw8

    Replies: @AP, @AP

  188. @AaronB
    @Barbarossa

    Thanks!

    I read it - I agree with pretty much all of it and it's very well expressed and well developed.

    You're a great writer and we need more people like you getting these positive alternative messages out there into our local communities.

    It's good work, and increasingly I think we all have a responsibility to assist in cultural transformation - and contra Dmitry, I think these things have a huge impact!

    I plan on beginning projects of this kind this year, that assist in cultural transformation and present a different view of what life can be like - for myself, I plan on doing YouTube videos of my wilderness camping and exploration, and tying it into Taoist, early Christian (I'm not Christian but I think early Christian spirituality has a deep message for our times, Desert Fathers, etc), and general spiritual themes that relate to wildness.

    I hope to feature some of the ancient wilderness poetry of China, which is too little known in the West. Unlike Western poetry, it's extremely direct and simple, and celebrates the wild in a lyrical way.

    Incidentally, for some reason I thought you were out West, in Utah or something, but I now remember that's Mikel, who lives by the beautiful Wasatch range iirc. I hope Mikel is doing well in his beautiful Mountain Kingdom. But I am pleased to see you are far from the corruption of NYC :)

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Mikel

    I plan on doing YouTube videos of my wilderness camping and exploration, and tying it into Taoist, early Christian … and general spiritual themes that relate to wildness.

    I hope you’ll let us know when you do, Aaron.

    With WW III having become a common theme of the daily headlines, who knows what future will bring. But as a friend living in Poland recently told me, ‘even if I knew that the world was ending tomorrow, I would still plant a tree’ (he was paraphrasing MLK, I think).

    • Agree: Barbarossa
  189. @Ron Unz
    @Mr. Hack


    Ukraine’s been winning this war to this point (certainly holding its own), so why in the world should they surrender? Sounds to me like you have a vested interest in seeing Russia win...The cards that you’re holding are becoming transparent to your readers…
     
    Well, I think it's much more plausible than that Ukrainian government claim that Putin is about to be removed.

    I really don't have military expertise in these matters, so it's a question of looking at the contrasting arguments and deciding which seem more convincing.

    Aside from the analyses of Col. Douglas Macgregor and Scott Ritter, I thought that Larry Johnson made some very good points on his blogsite and also in the current Q&A by Mike Whitney that we just published:

    https://sonar21.com/russia-exploits-ukraines-western-flank/

    https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/larry-c-johnson-the-ukrainian-army-has-been-defeated-whats-left-is-mop-up/

    For example, Johnson argued that the total lack of attacks on the big Russian convoy near Kiev means that the Ukrainians had already lost essentially all their operational-level military capabilities. I still read through my morning newspapers that provide a view that's 100% different, but I think they're much less persuasive.

    The nice thing about all these contrasting predictions is that we'll probably know within a few weeks who was right and who was wrong. It's not like waiting thirty years for Global Warming.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Dmitry

    …we’ll probably know within a few weeks who was right and who was wrong. It’s not like waiting thirty years for Global Warming.

    The word ‘probably‘ is the salient point. Given the essentially PR nature of the Western public world today, we will probably get the same loud, screaming narratives as with Global Warming and C19. Or Trump and Brexit. They think that dominating the mind-space is all that matters.

    If Russia takes Donbass-Black See coast, but stays out of Kiev – they will call it a “glorious victory”. If they take Kiev, but stay out of Galicia, another “victory”. If they take all of Ukraine (that would be very stupid) we would hear about “economy collapse“, “yellow-and-blue demonstrations”, “resistance”, etc…

    After the Chechen war the Western experts confidently predicted decades of mayhem. Chechens are fighting Ukies now, none of the experts acknowledge how wrong they were.

    The West is un-capable off admitting a loss. Like the late medieval Church it is always Ad Majorem Dei Gloriam, it is always complex, or too early for them. We see it here: Laxa has called it for Kiev after 10 days, AP has it 40%, Mr Hack is literally out of his mind dancing a victory dance. They live off hope as losing sides always do. But hope when it becomes hopeless turns into hysteria.

    So yes, we may wait for thirty years. If Greta freezes to death she will scream till the end that “the planet is too damn hot“. Or even better, that the “global warming caused the freeze”. That’s just the way they are.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow


    Mr Hack is literally out of his mind dancing a victory dance.
     
    Yeah, I'm in such ecstasy, especially when I talk to a relative of mine that has had to move from her Kyiv apartment building to Western Ukraine, besides herself with grief and anxiety. The Kurenivka historic neighborhood where she lived was recently bombed, so it's all fun and games over on my side. Looks like your still spewing out your anti-Ukrainian venom a mile a minute here - I think that you're really the one that has a false sense of bravado and "realism" that has you already dancing the "victory dance". You need to console yourself with the fact that the longer this Russian exercise in "teaching the khakhols a lesson" continues, the more Ukrainians learn to hate Russia and Russians. My relative always felt very appreciate of and drawn towards Russia and its culture. Not any more.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Derer

    , @Ron Unz
    @Beckow


    The word ‘probably‘ is the salient point. Given the essentially PR nature of the Western public world today, we will probably get the same loud, screaming narratives as with Global Warming and C19. Or Trump and Brexit. They think that dominating the mind-space is all that matters.
     
    Sure, that's fair. But I meant in the opinion of reasonably objective people rather than our dishonest MSM.
    , @Seraphim
    @Beckow

    Not only Mr. Hack is ''literally out of his mind dancing a victory dance''. There are scores of people hallucinating about Ukrainian 'victory' (when they are close to annihilation). It is in my opinion a phenomenon of mass hypnosis induced by the mind controllers who believe in their own lies. We live in the Orwellian world.

    Replies: @Greasy William, @Mr. Hack

  190. A123 says: • Website
    @LondonBob
    @Yellowface Anon

    I just think they use lockdowns to apply pressure on the US, remind them of their supply chain vulnerability, knowing the US really has no other alternatives. This is a theory Luke Gromen has, I agree with it, more plausible than zero covid fanaticism. I actually think sanctions on China are increasingly likely, as crazy as it sounds. Also I wonder how much China is now contemplating a move on Taiwan, I suspect that is far more likely.

    https://www.indianpunchline.com/china-sees-parallel-between-ukraine-taiwan/

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Yellowface Anon, @A123

    I just think they use lockdowns to apply pressure on the US, remind them of their supply chain vulnerability, knowing the US really has no other alternatives

    The CCP has shown that China is unreliable as a supplier. Therefore, the U.S. will develop alternatives. The current White House bungler is slowing this inevitable change, but cannot stop it. The next U.S. President will promote the successful alternative, MAGA Reindustrialization.

    The CCP desperately needs the U.S. market. The implosion of its real estate markets has left it weak (1). China’s centrally mismanaged economy is sliding towards the edge of a cliff. Further damaging trade makes every CCP problem worse.

    I wonder how much China is now contemplating a move on Taiwan, I suspect that is far more likely

    It was extremely unlikely before, and is even more so now.

    While Russia will grind out a military win in Ukraine, the result will be destruction and expensive reconstruction. The post-war peace will be painful & uncertain.

    Taiwan has a much better military protected by deep water, 3x wider than the English Channel. The CCP cannot take Taiwan quickly or intact. Destroying the chip making capability of TMSC will result in equally destructive retaliation against SMIC plus a total ban on technology transfer. The PRC would be impoverished.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/meanwhile-china-all-hell-breaking-loose

  191. @Yellowface Anon
    @LondonBob

    Lockdowns in China is now about cleaning up the private sector and centralizing power into the digital economy where the elite have a near-monopoly on, like the ones in the West. Since China is already so centralized, it's even more so now.

    I've already said that, if sanctions on Russia is about forcing the West to have the "green" transition and everyone to consider eating bugs, then sanctions on China has to be about using automation at home and UBI to make up for the manufacturing short fall.

    Sooner or later it has to be done, no matter how everyone will be worse off because of it, because Agenda 2030.

    China will move on Taiwan when Brandon starts sanctioning China and locks in the economic costs of any military action. The same logic that led to Putin moving onto Ukraine.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    centralizing power into the digital economy where the elite have a near-monopoly on

    I need to clarify this, it’s not the Big Tech as in the West where captains of industry follow orders (they have been heavily disciplined these few years), but directly by state and party organs. See health codes and state-organized direct grocery deliveries.

  192. A123 says: • Website
    @German_reader
    @A123

    I don't think he's dissolved all opposition parties, just about a dozen or so that are regarded as pro-Russia.
    Others will know the details, but maybe theconservativetreehouse isn't an accurate source (who would have thought, given your enthusiasm for the site...)?

    Replies: @A123

    The story has been eported everywhere. What *fact* are you disputing?

    Why are you engaging in ad hominem attacks?

    — Because you know that I am right?
    — Or, because your Precious Scholz is wrong?

    Being consumed by envy is not a good mental state for you to be in.

    #LetsGoBrandon 😇

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @A123


    The story has been eported everywhere.
     
    I don't know, the conservative treehouse might be Russian disinformation. You probably should think twice about spreading such stories, maybe utu will report you and then you could be locked up as a Russian disinformation agent.

    Replies: @A123

  193. It will be a dangerous game, but, this desire of progressives to initiate global thermonuclear war over Ukraine can be parlayed into the construction of new atomic plants.

    Simply tell them that it is necessary in order to increase our stockpile of fissionable materials.

  194. @A123
    @German_reader

    The story has been eported everywhere. What *fact* are you disputing?

    Why are you engaging in ad hominem attacks?

    -- Because you know that I am right?
    -- Or, because your Precious Scholz is wrong?

    Being consumed by envy is not a good mental state for you to be in.

    #LetsGoBrandon 😇

    Replies: @German_reader

    The story has been eported everywhere.

    I don’t know, the conservative treehouse might be Russian disinformation. You probably should think twice about spreading such stories, maybe utu will report you and then you could be locked up as a Russian disinformation agent.

    • LOL: A123
    • Replies: @A123
    @German_reader

    Conservative Treehouse is mostly U.S. focused. This makes it an unlikely pick for Russian government disinformation.

    The site pushes for increasing U.S. hydrocarbon (oil & gas) extraction, which runs directly counter to Russian interests. The last thing Putin needs is more American production resulting in lower global oil prices.

    It also voices a legitimate concern that U.S. government and media collaborators are lying to push an agenda that is not in the interest of American citizens. For example:

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/19/if-u-s-intelligence-will-lie-so-easily-about-anything-why-would-we-believe-them-about-ukraine/

    Given what we now know about GW's Iraq fiasco, that lack of trust is well deserved. If Zelensky successfully manages consolidation of national media, perhaps that will provide a road map that the next U.S. President will follow.

    Anyone advocating a NATO "No Fly Zone" is a nutter. It would start WW III. Moving anti-air in Poland close to the Ukraine border is a bit nerve wracking. Yes, Russia is focused on the other end of Ukraine, so there should be sufficient separation. However, mistakes do happen and wars often start by accident.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    P.S. How could my autocorrect allow "eporting" to go unchanged when it should obviously have be "reporting"?

    I suppose it could of been worse. Here is a 😁 Humor 😂 link to tide everyone over until I can put together a proper round up:

    https://www.lolwot.com/10-of-the-funniest-autocorrect-fails-of-all-time/

  195. @Beckow
    @Ron Unz


    ...we’ll probably know within a few weeks who was right and who was wrong. It’s not like waiting thirty years for Global Warming.
     
    The word 'probably' is the salient point. Given the essentially PR nature of the Western public world today, we will probably get the same loud, screaming narratives as with Global Warming and C19. Or Trump and Brexit. They think that dominating the mind-space is all that matters.

    If Russia takes Donbass-Black See coast, but stays out of Kiev - they will call it a "glorious victory". If they take Kiev, but stay out of Galicia, another "victory". If they take all of Ukraine (that would be very stupid) we would hear about "economy collapse", "yellow-and-blue demonstrations", "resistance", etc...

    After the Chechen war the Western experts confidently predicted decades of mayhem. Chechens are fighting Ukies now, none of the experts acknowledge how wrong they were.

    The West is un-capable off admitting a loss. Like the late medieval Church it is always Ad Majorem Dei Gloriam, it is always complex, or too early for them. We see it here: Laxa has called it for Kiev after 10 days, AP has it 40%, Mr Hack is literally out of his mind dancing a victory dance. They live off hope as losing sides always do. But hope when it becomes hopeless turns into hysteria.

    So yes, we may wait for thirty years. If Greta freezes to death she will scream till the end that "the planet is too damn hot". Or even better, that the "global warming caused the freeze". That's just the way they are.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Ron Unz, @Seraphim

    Mr Hack is literally out of his mind dancing a victory dance.

    Yeah, I’m in such ecstasy, especially when I talk to a relative of mine that has had to move from her Kyiv apartment building to Western Ukraine, besides herself with grief and anxiety. The Kurenivka historic neighborhood where she lived was recently bombed, so it’s all fun and games over on my side. Looks like your still spewing out your anti-Ukrainian venom a mile a minute here – I think that you’re really the one that has a false sense of bravado and “realism” that has you already dancing the “victory dance”. You need to console yourself with the fact that the longer this Russian exercise in “teaching the khakhols a lesson” continues, the more Ukrainians learn to hate Russia and Russians. My relative always felt very appreciate of and drawn towards Russia and its culture. Not any more.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Mr. Hack

    The only thing that you got right is that I try to be a realist. Observing what actually happens is more interesting than virtual castles in the air. There is a war, sh..t happens, that's what a war is. That's why it was so important to avoid it - and I pointed out many times that was very easy: no NATO in Ukraine and stop the war on Donbass by implementing a Minsk agreement. Kiev flatly refused. NATO refused.

    Now Zelensky said on US TV that he was always told by NATO privately that Ukraine will not be in NATO - but that publicly they must continue the fiction that it will be. Very weird stuff, almost pathological in its obsession with manipulating perceptions. All that Zelensky, that crazy Norwegian, or Macron, Sholtz had to do is say it publicly. That would also force peace in Donbass because with no promise of NATO it more realistic to settle it with an autonomy.

    Many will object that Russia was bluffing and that they would go for war anyway. There is no way to know - it is an alternate make-believe history. If Russia would attack after Kiev made the above compromises in public, Russia situation would be much worse. A large part of the world, about 70-80%, is non-committal, China, India, Brazil, S Africa... They specifically cite the "NATO in Ukraine" argument and bombing of Donbass. So the Kiev-West unwillingness to publicly show a compromise before the war has hurt the Western chances of isolating Russia.

    Your 'relative' should ask Zelensky why he failed, why he couldn't bring himself to say in February what he says now.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    , @Derer
    @Mr. Hack

    "...the more Ukrainians learn to hate Russia"

    But still, they hate Zelensky implanted government even more. It is too complex for you.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  196. A123 says: • Website
    @AP
    @A123

    It’s a lie. He temporary suspended (not banned) only pro-Russian opposition parties, not all opposition parties. Not an unreasonable thing to do given that Russia invaded Ukraine. UK banned the British union of fascists during World War II, for example.

    Replies: @A123

    It’s a lie. He temporary suspended (not banned) only pro-Russian opposition parties, not all opposition parties. Not an unreasonable thing to do given that Russia invaded Ukraine. UK banned the British union of fascists during World War II, for example.

    Are the parties he banned/suspended particularly influential?

    I see your point, but if they were relatively harmless it is not an obvious gain for Zelensky. It is undercuts his messaging abroad. Also, it forces those who disagree with his government “underground” where they are difficult to monitor.
    ____

    Media consolidation is also problematic: (1)

    In an address to his nation delivered Sunday, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky announced an order “combining all national TV channels, the program content of which consists mainly of information and/or information-analytical programs, [into] a single information platform of strategic communication” to be called “United News.”

    The move means the end, at least temporarily, of privately owned Ukrainian media outlets in that country. Zelensky claimed the measure is needed to combat alleged Russian misinformation and “tell the truth about the war.”

    It is hard to see how this will restrict “misinformation” reaching Ukrainian citizens. Foreign media will still be available via adjacent countries, satellite, and internet sources.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/ukraine-president-volodymyr-zelensky-combines-222313241.html

  197. Pushilin, DNR leader, is talking about at least a week to take Mariupol. Strelkov/Girkin seems to think Azov is still under good command, ready to fight to the last and not far off the original strength of 1000.

    It’s an Alamo. The longer they tie up the Russian/DNR army, the longer the Ukrainian mobilization has to build up elsewhere. Hence Russian offers for surrender.

  198. @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow


    Mr Hack is literally out of his mind dancing a victory dance.
     
    Yeah, I'm in such ecstasy, especially when I talk to a relative of mine that has had to move from her Kyiv apartment building to Western Ukraine, besides herself with grief and anxiety. The Kurenivka historic neighborhood where she lived was recently bombed, so it's all fun and games over on my side. Looks like your still spewing out your anti-Ukrainian venom a mile a minute here - I think that you're really the one that has a false sense of bravado and "realism" that has you already dancing the "victory dance". You need to console yourself with the fact that the longer this Russian exercise in "teaching the khakhols a lesson" continues, the more Ukrainians learn to hate Russia and Russians. My relative always felt very appreciate of and drawn towards Russia and its culture. Not any more.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Derer

    The only thing that you got right is that I try to be a realist. Observing what actually happens is more interesting than virtual castles in the air. There is a war, sh..t happens, that’s what a war is. That’s why it was so important to avoid it – and I pointed out many times that was very easy: no NATO in Ukraine and stop the war on Donbass by implementing a Minsk agreement. Kiev flatly refused. NATO refused.

    Now Zelensky said on US TV that he was always told by NATO privately that Ukraine will not be in NATO – but that publicly they must continue the fiction that it will be. Very weird stuff, almost pathological in its obsession with manipulating perceptions. All that Zelensky, that crazy Norwegian, or Macron, Sholtz had to do is say it publicly. That would also force peace in Donbass because with no promise of NATO it more realistic to settle it with an autonomy.

    Many will object that Russia was bluffing and that they would go for war anyway. There is no way to know – it is an alternate make-believe history. If Russia would attack after Kiev made the above compromises in public, Russia situation would be much worse. A large part of the world, about 70-80%, is non-committal, China, India, Brazil, S Africa… They specifically cite the “NATO in Ukraine” argument and bombing of Donbass. So the Kiev-West unwillingness to publicly show a compromise before the war has hurt the Western chances of isolating Russia.

    Your ‘relative’ should ask Zelensky why he failed, why he couldn’t bring himself to say in February what he says now.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow

    I haven't viewed the clip that you're referring to regarding NATO's revelations to Zelensky that Ukraine would never be considered for membership. If you could provide the link, that would preclude some hunt/pecking for me. Looking "realistically" at the whole situation today, it's too bad that Ukraine wasn't able to push trough NATO membership much sooner as was done in other former iron curtain countries, Russia would not have dared attack Ukraine if it were under the NATO umbrella.

  199. @Ron Unz
    @Mr. Hack


    Ukraine’s been winning this war to this point (certainly holding its own), so why in the world should they surrender? Sounds to me like you have a vested interest in seeing Russia win...The cards that you’re holding are becoming transparent to your readers…
     
    Well, I think it's much more plausible than that Ukrainian government claim that Putin is about to be removed.

    I really don't have military expertise in these matters, so it's a question of looking at the contrasting arguments and deciding which seem more convincing.

    Aside from the analyses of Col. Douglas Macgregor and Scott Ritter, I thought that Larry Johnson made some very good points on his blogsite and also in the current Q&A by Mike Whitney that we just published:

    https://sonar21.com/russia-exploits-ukraines-western-flank/

    https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/larry-c-johnson-the-ukrainian-army-has-been-defeated-whats-left-is-mop-up/

    For example, Johnson argued that the total lack of attacks on the big Russian convoy near Kiev means that the Ukrainians had already lost essentially all their operational-level military capabilities. I still read through my morning newspapers that provide a view that's 100% different, but I think they're much less persuasive.

    The nice thing about all these contrasting predictions is that we'll probably know within a few weeks who was right and who was wrong. It's not like waiting thirty years for Global Warming.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Dmitry

    question of looking at the contrasting arguments and deciding which seem more convincing.

    Maybe this was the limit for amateur citizens to view distant wars in the 1980s. But, with the internet, the amateur netizens have every day received additionally a flow of hundreds of videos,* hundreds of photos, of the military fighting.

    As an amateur, most of our views will be idiotic, compared to professionals asked in the media. It’s going to be biased by which side we receive information from. But it’s still more interesting to try to think about topics yourself, than just receive more mediated information.

    The most important thing in the war, is the equipment used. And there is open information, if not always reliable, to look for equipment and technology.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Russian_Ground_Forces Even a lot of the military specialists, are just looking there , before they go to talk to CNN.

    And you can predict the future battles, like what will be the result if there will be a future mobilization of the reserves in the Russian military side. E.g. you can see what equipment will be mobilized and what weapons are delivered to Ukraine. Tactics will be determined a lot just by the equipment available to each side.

    *
    Forums like this include a flow, although this one censors any of the violent content from the war
    https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/?f=flair_name%3A%22Video%22
    https://www.reddit.com/r/DestroyedTanks/?f=flair_name%3A%22Russo-Ukrainian%20War%22

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Dmitry


    The most important thing in the war, is the equipment used.
     
    What war have you been watching? If there's one theme running throughout this war, acknowledged internationally, is that the Ukrainian side has up until now been winning the war on the heart and heroism of the Ukrainian side. The better weaponry of the Russian side has not been able to bring this war to a conclusion in any of the shorter predicted timeframes of this war. Very often this superior Russian weaponry has been captured by the Ukrainian side, repaired, and put back onto the battlefield used against the former owners of this equipment.

    Replies: @Beckow

    , @Ron Unz
    @Dmitry


    Maybe this was the limit for amateur citizens to view distant wars in the 1980s. But, with the internet, the amateur netizens have every day received additionally a flow of hundreds of videos,* hundreds of photos, of the military fighting.
     
    I guess I don't see what useful information can be obtained by watching low-level combat footage on the Internet.

    Many hundreds of thousands of troops are fighting in Ukraine, so obviously both sides will suffer at least some losses. Obviously, the losses of the enemy will be posted on the Internet. What does that prove? Surely, the Allies could have posted videos of destroyed German units during France 1940.

    Admittedly, if the Russians claimed that the Ukrainians had all surrendered without any fighting, the images would prove otherwise. But I think that's about it.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Wokechoke, @songbird

  200. @utu
    @iffen

    An earnest person answer to the snarko-ironist:

    Actually, red potatoes are very good as boiled potatoes, so they are right</b potatoes. Yukon gold are also very good. Some chefs (Chef John) say that Yukon gold are the best for mashed potatoes. IMO baking potatoes (like Russet) are the best for mashed potatoes because they do not have that much water so you can add more milk or cream to them but they are lousy as boiled potatoes. The best potatoes for potato/German salad are Belgian fingerling or Russian banana potatoes but because they are small and irregular shapes they are hard to work with when peeling after boiling.

    The key point is not to overcook them for boiling potatoes and not to undercook them for mashed potatoes. The unpeeled potatoes have wide tolerance margin for overcooking but for hash browns you should slightly undercook them because you still will be frying them.

    I do not have experience with more exotic potatoes from Peru that are purple or bluish or orange. But I am sure that hipster foodies will make them popular.

    Replies: @iffen, @Philip Owen

    Maris Piper, does everything.

    • Thanks: utu
  201. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Dmitry

    Re PRC media. It is very heterodox:

    - Google translate works very well now for Chinese (which has exceedingly simple grammar, unlike Japanese)

    - I agree with china-russia-all-the-way that Twitter is good resource. Getting a VPN is trivial in PRC and there are a lot of vloggers based within PRC.

    - I would follow this Chinese vlogger who provides translatable-captions. He lives in Germany and has a German husband. He's pro-PRC and critical of US and German MSM. And has been fairly neutral on Ukraine conflict. This episode he's speaking on (I'm using only Google and made no changes):


    感谢这面镜子 给中国预演 让中国少走弯路 | 只有中美拥有真正的数字主权

    Thanks to this mirror for rehearsing for China, so that China can avoid detours | Only China and the United States have true digital sovereignty

     

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysmpSAwcchY

    - There are a lot of anti-PRC media obviously, Epoch Times (Falun Gong) is basically the mirror-image of Xinhua.

    - There's a beautiful Russia girl named Katyusha who has a Mandarin speaking channel. She's very pro-Russia and anti-US. Here's video about how Russians are dealing with sanctions haha--
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gy07fElTTgo

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms, @Barbarossa, @Dmitry, @sher singh

    I was wondering if Xinhua or People’s daily will give a good perspective, of what the party wants officially the population to receive?

    “Xinhua is the largest and most influential media organization in China, as well as the largest news agency as measured by the number of worldwide correspondents.Xinhua is a ministry-level institution subordinate to the State Council and is the highest ranking state media organ in the country alongside the People’s Daily.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinhua_News_Agency

    From what I saw, they aren’t that interested very in the war in Ukraine, but they are preparing anti-American government positions for it.

    Can you paraphrase on these stories which are the main Xinhua page.
    http://www.news.cn/politics/zywj/2022-03/21/c_1128490381.htm
    http://www.news.cn/politics/fjxzcjgxsd/index.htm
    http://www.news.cn/world/2022-03/21/c_1128489711.htm

    People’s Daily website looks very internal focused as I see pictures of tunnels and Chinese sports athletes is their main pictures on the page.
    http://www.people.com.cn/

    • Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Dmitry

    Xinhua is bland CCP propaganda and not taken seriously, just like I no longer took you seriously after you said "In Russian culture, there is no dislike of African Americans."

    You want the takes on AI and cryptography its on Zhihu and Wechat


    乌克兰为何能以小博大,已激战20天:俄乌战争成为人类首次AI战争

    How can Ukraine take on an opponent of a much larger size, fierce fighting already for 20 days: the Russian-Ukrainian war has become the first AI war of mankind

     

    https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/481468525

    Would I ask you to translate from Russian when there are perfectly good software available? Show some etiquette.

    Go ahead, gossip some more about how Karlin is "not white enough". Operation Bagration was named after the hero of Battle of Borodino who was a Caucasian.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    , @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Dmitry

    This one is a lot of jargon about maintaining the study of CCP history.

    http://www.news.cn/politics/zywj/2022-03/21/c_1128490381.htm

    A lot mentioning of:

    马克思主义中国化 (mǎkèsī zhǔyì zhōnggúohùa) Chinese adaptation of Marxism
    红色血脉 (hōngsè xǔechéng) Red coloured blood lineage

    红色 Red coloured, is used to ascribe the heritage of CCP. Red coloured travel 红色旅游 of the original CCP bases in rural interior south and northwest is a big travel leisure business in PRC. The PLA was originally the Chinese Workers' and Peasants' Red Army.

    This is why I compare PRC to a foreign conquest dynasty. Marxism, Red, are all foreign notions. This may as well have been a Manchu tribal decree emphasizing preservation of Manchu heritage.

    The PRC elites are mostly Han, but you can see a list of CCP clans below, many members marry whites/Jews and hold AUKUS passports.

    https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/中共政治家家族列表

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

  202. A123 says: • Website
    @German_reader
    @A123


    The story has been eported everywhere.
     
    I don't know, the conservative treehouse might be Russian disinformation. You probably should think twice about spreading such stories, maybe utu will report you and then you could be locked up as a Russian disinformation agent.

    Replies: @A123

    Conservative Treehouse is mostly U.S. focused. This makes it an unlikely pick for Russian government disinformation.

    The site pushes for increasing U.S. hydrocarbon (oil & gas) extraction, which runs directly counter to Russian interests. The last thing Putin needs is more American production resulting in lower global oil prices.

    It also voices a legitimate concern that U.S. government and media collaborators are lying to push an agenda that is not in the interest of American citizens. For example:

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/19/if-u-s-intelligence-will-lie-so-easily-about-anything-why-would-we-believe-them-about-ukraine/

    Given what we now know about GW’s Iraq fiasco, that lack of trust is well deserved. If Zelensky successfully manages consolidation of national media, perhaps that will provide a road map that the next U.S. President will follow.

    Anyone advocating a NATO “No Fly Zone” is a nutter. It would start WW III. Moving anti-air in Poland close to the Ukraine border is a bit nerve wracking. Yes, Russia is focused on the other end of Ukraine, so there should be sufficient separation. However, mistakes do happen and wars often start by accident.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    P.S. How could my autocorrect allow “eporting” to go unchanged when it should obviously have be “reporting”?

    I suppose it could of been worse. Here is a 😁 Humor 😂 link to tide everyone over until I can put together a proper round up:

    https://www.lolwot.com/10-of-the-funniest-autocorrect-fails-of-all-time/

  203. @AP
    @Commentator Mike


    Some Nazis holed up in a few isolated apartment blocks means that Mariuopol hasn’t fallen. They’ll be dealt with whenever they’re dealt with. According to this assessment WWII wasn’t over until the last Jap stealing chicken from farms neighbouring his jungle hideout wasn’t caught
     
    We already know you live in fantasy-land concerning Ukraine (14,000 civilians killed by Kiev regime..) and this is further confirmation.

    If resistance was down to only a few buildings why did Russia demand that the city surrender?

    Reality is that Russians have advanced but large part of the city still in Ukrainian hands. Russia will continue to take casualties while trying to take it :



    https://twitter.com/rusciswar/status/1505936799771811842?s=21

    Replies: @Commentator Mike, @Commentator Mike

    If resistance was down to only a few buildings why did Russia demand that the city surrender?

    Everybody and his dog by know know this is to save civilians.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Commentator Mike

    But you claimed the Ukrainians were down to a few buildings.

  204. @Commentator Mike
    @AP

    LOL. Some Nazis holed up in a few isolated apartment blocks means that Mariuopol hasn't fallen. They'll be dealt with whenever they're dealt with. According to this assessment WWII wasn't over until the last Jap stealing chicken from farms neighbouring his jungle hideout wasn't caught.

    Replies: @AP, @Sean

    Mariupol was the target of a Donbass offensive years ago so it makes sense that it would had substantial prepared defences already existing and added to early this year, because it was thought to be the most likely target. The units stationed around Mariupol could not have been left to roam free, they had to be pinned and forced inside the city. Most of the military infrastructure of Ukraine was built during the Cold War so is over in the West, which is also where there is also rugged and partially wooded terrain. Kiev is difficult to encircle because of the ravines near it (probably why the outrageously vulnerable assault on the cargo airport was thought worth a try).

    Given the above difficulties, the balance of independent military opinion was an operation to take the Donbas and Mariupol was the most likely, and even that was considered only 49% probable to actually happen until three weeks ago. It is only a month since Zelinsky was telling Biden to stop predicting an invasion because it was hurting tourism! The Russians got the element of surprise because the extent of the invasion was more than a little ambitious; “no plan survives contact with the enemy” so things have gone about as well as an objective observer would have expected for Russia, with casualties not prohibitive for what that have achieved so far. I think in the next two weeks Russia needs to begin the reduction of Kiev, which at present they likely do not have sufficient artillery ammunition in hand for while expending their stocks elswhere.

    Whether the Russians could continue to make reasonable progress at a bearable cost while America supplies cutting edge smart weapons to Ukraine in large maybe unlimited quantities remains to be seen. The already announced medium and long range AA missiles being given to Ukraine in combination with Stingers will ground the Russian airforce but not the Ukraine’s drones, which there may be swarms of in a month. Some of them such as the tiny switchback have been closely guarded secret weapons of special forces hunting high value targets hitherto. If they get produced in the numbers the US is capable of and given to Ukraine, such havoc will be wreaked on the Russian army, it will spend all its time praying for rainstorms

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Sean

    In my opinion, casualties of contract soldiers can go high in Russia, without so much influence in public opinion, as almost all the soldiers are from villages and poor cities in the provincial outbacks. Mostly their families are poor people without influence and they are being told to not to make noise, so the casualties might be easy to absorb from the politicians' view. Nobody from central Moscow has been dying in Ukraine.

    Perhaps, there should be still some significant reserve of contract soldiers that can be moved from other areas of the country. If there had to be mobilization of conscripts for a longer war, the situation could start to influence public opinion, although even then it is more of a working class balance in conscripted youth.

    But more elite equipment is already in Ukraine. When more reserve forces' equipment enters Ukraine, then it will imply using worse equipment, like a higher proportion of armored vehicles without ERA. e.g. T-72A will have more vulnerability for a wider range of weapons that exist in Ukraine than T-72B3.

    Similarly, more older version of BMP-2 would be going there, as well as more BMP-1. (Already there are a lot of BMP-1 (1960s designed vehicles) in Ukraine destroyed or abandoned.)


    Ukraine’s drones, which there may be swarms of in a month. Some of them such as the tiny switchback
     
    Only 100 American "switchblade" munitions are going to Ukraine and they only have munition of a 40mm grenade. According to media, they require skill in the operator to use, so they might not be effective in the beginning.

    Replies: @Sean

  205. @Wielgus
    @Wokechoke

    Turks have a fear of Russia but do not necessarily think the West are good guys, and internalised the idea that if you think a threat is developing to you in a neighbouring country you bomb them and if necessary send the troops in. So Turkey has troops in both Syria and northern Iraq. As for Turkish Kurds, currently celebrating Newroz, they have learned not to place too much reliance on the West.

    Replies: @Wielgus

    I saw a Turkish TV panel discussion today on a pro-Erdoğan channel (Haber Global). The topic was “What are Turkey’s interests? With NATO or with Russia?” Turkey has been in NATO since the 1950s. The fact that the topic is even raised, in a country whose media are not really free, is revealing.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    @Wielgus

    China is Turkey's number one trade partner, Russia is number two.

    , @Wielgus
    @Wielgus

    Turkey is running with the hare and hunting with the hounds, something it has done before. In NATO and selling Bayraktar drones to Ukraine but economically very tied to Russia.

  206. @Yevardian
    @Dacian Julien Soros


    Can you read Romanian? I find current-year Romanian literature as formulaic as current-year world literature or current-year pop music.
     
    Yes, although I've barely used it all in years. I'll just say I have close personal ties to the country. And yes, although I don't follow that closely, its expected, probably most recent authors I read were Sadoveanu and Urmuz, both pretty old.
    But at least until the mid 20th century Romania had a respectable number of strong writers for a country of its size.

    @Beckow

    Leaving this forum is in my view unnecessary, it is one of the few places where different perspectives meet. This war is the most important event in a long time, it will impact everything.
     

    It's more just a periodic break from internet/news I regularly take, when I start noticing it starts effecting output in real things. There's also been escalating crisis in Armenia (again), since Azerbaijan has been repeatedly violating the ceasefire recently, and blocking gas and imports (during a freezing winter) to the remnants of Artsakh in an attempt induce panic. Its also unclear how long Russian troops will remain to protect the corridor with this fucking Ukrainian war dragging.. I course, I don't expect average reader to take interest in Turkic bloodfeuds (small-country nationalisms injecting their grievances into every discussion), but I mention it as part of the post-Soviet context, a lot in the wider region is hinging on events in Ukraine.

    @Agathoklis

    Not really helpful, it was adequately written and seemed relatively non-partisan, you could at least point out what you found wrong with it (it was just a popular history for an educated Anglo layperson that knows little of the modern state, I don't know what you expect), or recommend something better.

    @BlinkyBill

    Neither here nor there, but apart from personal distaste, the things about Indian culture (their languages and visage aside) I find really repulsive is the pervasive dichotomy between self-abasing servility and churlish arrogance you get there as a result of the caste-system.
    And its all overlaid by this reverence deep feelings of racial inferiority, and a practical reverence for stasis and total complacence with conditions of filth and despair that forms a part of their traditional religions. I don't think its a coincidence that Western charlatans, degenerates and drug-addicts have taken inspiration from there since at least the late 19th century.

    @Dmitri


    Have you read Herodotus yet? I feel like I remember German Reader was going to advise us to read him.
     
    I think like a lot of people, I've examined certain passages extensively, or referred to it as an index for sourcing various topics, but I haven't sat and read through the whole work, no. I've always been more interested in the Hellenistic and Late-Roman/early-Byzantine periods, since they deal with very topical issues like demographic change/replacement, tensions in multiethnic societies, imperial overextension, and state collapse. So in general I'm more familiar with authors like Polybios, Diodoros or Prokopios, than Herodotos.

    Herodotos of course belongs to the 'Golden Age' of Greece, perhaps all antiquity, but also for that reason it has always disproportionate attention relative to all other periods. Greeks were artificially copying the 'Attic' dialect of Greek (although Herodotos wrote Ionian, he's a little earlier), using a huge array of long-obselete diacritics, even as the speech had evolved to Koine, then Byzantine forms, in some form, practically until the end of Katharevousa.


    Maybe Unamuno could be interesting? I never read his books though. Probably, Mikel has a view. This is the kind of book I would look for as a souvenir in Spain.
     
    Yeah, I remember reading a book of his on Christianity a while ago, but I didn't quite 'grab' me. He also seems to have held very 'cuck' like disparaging views on his own native language and culture, which turns me off. I mean, it can be justified, but to me the superiority of Basque society over Castillian conditions (as a whole) just seems very obvious.

    Btw, I started on a book on recent China that looks interesting, even if it's obviously from some hyperpartisan neocon hawk angle (and apparently, written by a pajeet), its not hiding that fact. So far, from the introduction, its clear the author disdains emotional language, looks to be a worthwhile read. Perhaps Our Benevolent Overlord himself would be interested in taking a look?

    https://www.amazon.com.au/Long-Game-Strategy-Displacement-American/dp/0197527914

    Replies: @sher singh, @Mikel, @Dmitry

    isparaging views on his own native language and culture

    I’m not saying he is interesting or not (as I didn’t read him) or even if he could be called a philosopher. Maybe Spain, doesn’t have philosophers?

    But which philosophers or interesting writers, don’t need to do that? It’s a little like fasting for saints. One of Socrates’ definitions, according to Plato, (to paraphase) of a philosopher, is the higher soul person who disengaged from their current time, from their family and place, views like from the top of a mountain.

    Herodotos of course belongs to the ‘Golden Age’ of Greece, perhaps all antiquity, but also for that reason it has always disproportionate attention

    Although I guess not disproportionate relative to the quality or interest of the civilization. It’s one of the more elevated and fertile times and places of the human race, so it’s natural people focus on the fifth century writers.

    China that looks interesting, even if it’s obviously from some hyperpartisan neocon

    Maybe it would be interesting to read what the Chinese Marxist historians are writing. Perhaps not, in terms of European history, but in terms of the Chinese history of recent centuries.

  207. According to the Russian newspaper Komsomolska Pravda, the Russian defense ministry has admitted to 9,800 Russians killed so far:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20220321121337mp_/https://www.kp.ru/online/news/4672522/

    • LOL: LondonBob
  208. @Commentator Mike
    @AP


    If resistance was down to only a few buildings why did Russia demand that the city surrender?
     
    Everybody and his dog by know know this is to save civilians.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6UzUMrEEXM

    Replies: @AP

    But you claimed the Ukrainians were down to a few buildings.

  209. @AP
    @Commentator Mike


    Some Nazis holed up in a few isolated apartment blocks means that Mariuopol hasn’t fallen. They’ll be dealt with whenever they’re dealt with. According to this assessment WWII wasn’t over until the last Jap stealing chicken from farms neighbouring his jungle hideout wasn’t caught
     
    We already know you live in fantasy-land concerning Ukraine (14,000 civilians killed by Kiev regime..) and this is further confirmation.

    If resistance was down to only a few buildings why did Russia demand that the city surrender?

    Reality is that Russians have advanced but large part of the city still in Ukrainian hands. Russia will continue to take casualties while trying to take it :



    https://twitter.com/rusciswar/status/1505936799771811842?s=21

    Replies: @Commentator Mike, @Commentator Mike

    Mariuopol

    • Replies: @AP
    @Commentator Mike

    That source is a very silly Russian shill. Is he the one you’ve been getting all your misinformation from?

    As I said, much of Mariupol, not just a few buildings, is still there in the hands of Ukrainian forces.

    Replies: @Commentator Mike

    , @AP
    @Commentator Mike

    An article about the loser shilling for Russia in the videos. Hopefully you don’t need his dating advice. :-)

    I suspect 90% of the pro-Russian westerners in eastern Ukraine are losers who take advantage of poor morals of some of those women. Like that fat Patrick Lancaster guy or the petty criminal from Texas (forgot his name).

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/gonzalo-lira-is-a-pro-putin-shill-in-ukraine-and-a-sleazy-manosphere-dating-coach

    Replies: @Greasy William, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Commentator Mike

  210. @Beckow
    @Mr. Hack

    The only thing that you got right is that I try to be a realist. Observing what actually happens is more interesting than virtual castles in the air. There is a war, sh..t happens, that's what a war is. That's why it was so important to avoid it - and I pointed out many times that was very easy: no NATO in Ukraine and stop the war on Donbass by implementing a Minsk agreement. Kiev flatly refused. NATO refused.

    Now Zelensky said on US TV that he was always told by NATO privately that Ukraine will not be in NATO - but that publicly they must continue the fiction that it will be. Very weird stuff, almost pathological in its obsession with manipulating perceptions. All that Zelensky, that crazy Norwegian, or Macron, Sholtz had to do is say it publicly. That would also force peace in Donbass because with no promise of NATO it more realistic to settle it with an autonomy.

    Many will object that Russia was bluffing and that they would go for war anyway. There is no way to know - it is an alternate make-believe history. If Russia would attack after Kiev made the above compromises in public, Russia situation would be much worse. A large part of the world, about 70-80%, is non-committal, China, India, Brazil, S Africa... They specifically cite the "NATO in Ukraine" argument and bombing of Donbass. So the Kiev-West unwillingness to publicly show a compromise before the war has hurt the Western chances of isolating Russia.

    Your 'relative' should ask Zelensky why he failed, why he couldn't bring himself to say in February what he says now.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    I haven’t viewed the clip that you’re referring to regarding NATO’s revelations to Zelensky that Ukraine would never be considered for membership. If you could provide the link, that would preclude some hunt/pecking for me. Looking “realistically” at the whole situation today, it’s too bad that Ukraine wasn’t able to push trough NATO membership much sooner as was done in other former iron curtain countries, Russia would not have dared attack Ukraine if it were under the NATO umbrella.

  211. @Dmitry
    @Ron Unz


    question of looking at the contrasting arguments and deciding which seem more convincing.
     
    Maybe this was the limit for amateur citizens to view distant wars in the 1980s. But, with the internet, the amateur netizens have every day received additionally a flow of hundreds of videos,* hundreds of photos, of the military fighting.


    As an amateur, most of our views will be idiotic, compared to professionals asked in the media. It's going to be biased by which side we receive information from. But it's still more interesting to try to think about topics yourself, than just receive more mediated information.

    The most important thing in the war, is the equipment used. And there is open information, if not always reliable, to look for equipment and technology.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Russian_Ground_Forces Even a lot of the military specialists, are just looking there , before they go to talk to CNN.

    And you can predict the future battles, like what will be the result if there will be a future mobilization of the reserves in the Russian military side. E.g. you can see what equipment will be mobilized and what weapons are delivered to Ukraine. Tactics will be determined a lot just by the equipment available to each side.


    -

    *
    Forums like this include a flow, although this one censors any of the violent content from the war
    https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/?f=flair_name%3A%22Video%22
    https://www.reddit.com/r/DestroyedTanks/?f=flair_name%3A%22Russo-Ukrainian%20War%22

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Ron Unz

    The most important thing in the war, is the equipment used.

    What war have you been watching? If there’s one theme running throughout this war, acknowledged internationally, is that the Ukrainian side has up until now been winning the war on the heart and heroism of the Ukrainian side. The better weaponry of the Russian side has not been able to bring this war to a conclusion in any of the shorter predicted timeframes of this war. Very often this superior Russian weaponry has been captured by the Ukrainian side, repaired, and put back onto the battlefield used against the former owners of this equipment.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Mr. Hack


    too bad that Ukraine wasn’t able to push trough NATO membership much sooner

     

    Too bad, we could have had the war sooner. There is real cognitive dissonance among Ukie positions: on the one hand they scream that Ukraine in NATO was 'Russian propaganda', an excuse and a lie. On the other hand they say what you say: sooner the better, haha... How do you expect people to take you seriously? Most serious, intelligent people understand that Kiev in NATO was a declaration of war on Russia. Most of the world outside of the West is saying it - you can even find articles in NY Times talking about it. Yoi guys need to get your story straight.

    Watch the Sunday CNN International show w Zelensky and some guy named Fareed. By the way, Zelensky also said that he asked for what you are saying: an immediate NATO membership. He is all over the map, a clown really, not a serious person. I would give him an Oscar for the best supporting role, not a Nobel pin. But he may get both.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  212. @Sean
    @Commentator Mike

    Mariupol was the target of a Donbass offensive years ago so it makes sense that it would had substantial prepared defences already existing and added to early this year, because it was thought to be the most likely target. The units stationed around Mariupol could not have been left to roam free, they had to be pinned and forced inside the city. Most of the military infrastructure of Ukraine was built during the Cold War so is over in the West, which is also where there is also rugged and partially wooded terrain. Kiev is difficult to encircle because of the ravines near it (probably why the outrageously vulnerable assault on the cargo airport was thought worth a try).

    Given the above difficulties, the balance of independent military opinion was an operation to take the Donbas and Mariupol was the most likely, and even that was considered only 49% probable to actually happen until three weeks ago. It is only a month since Zelinsky was telling Biden to stop predicting an invasion because it was hurting tourism! The Russians got the element of surprise because the extent of the invasion was more than a little ambitious; “no plan survives contact with the enemy” so things have gone about as well as an objective observer would have expected for Russia, with casualties not prohibitive for what that have achieved so far. I think in the next two weeks Russia needs to begin the reduction of Kiev, which at present they likely do not have sufficient artillery ammunition in hand for while expending their stocks elswhere.

    Whether the Russians could continue to make reasonable progress at a bearable cost while America supplies cutting edge smart weapons to Ukraine in large maybe unlimited quantities remains to be seen. The already announced medium and long range AA missiles being given to Ukraine in combination with Stingers will ground the Russian airforce but not the Ukraine's drones, which there may be swarms of in a month. Some of them such as the tiny switchback have been closely guarded secret weapons of special forces hunting high value targets hitherto. If they get produced in the numbers the US is capable of and given to Ukraine, such havoc will be wreaked on the Russian army, it will spend all its time praying for rainstorms

    Replies: @Dmitry

    In my opinion, casualties of contract soldiers can go high in Russia, without so much influence in public opinion, as almost all the soldiers are from villages and poor cities in the provincial outbacks. Mostly their families are poor people without influence and they are being told to not to make noise, so the casualties might be easy to absorb from the politicians’ view. Nobody from central Moscow has been dying in Ukraine.

    Perhaps, there should be still some significant reserve of contract soldiers that can be moved from other areas of the country. If there had to be mobilization of conscripts for a longer war, the situation could start to influence public opinion, although even then it is more of a working class balance in conscripted youth.

    But more elite equipment is already in Ukraine. When more reserve forces’ equipment enters Ukraine, then it will imply using worse equipment, like a higher proportion of armored vehicles without ERA. e.g. T-72A will have more vulnerability for a wider range of weapons that exist in Ukraine than T-72B3.

    Similarly, more older version of BMP-2 would be going there, as well as more BMP-1. (Already there are a lot of BMP-1 (1960s designed vehicles) in Ukraine destroyed or abandoned.)

    Ukraine’s drones, which there may be swarms of in a month. Some of them such as the tiny switchback

    Only 100 American “switchblade” munitions are going to Ukraine and they only have munition of a 40mm grenade. According to media, they require skill in the operator to use, so they might not be effective in the beginning.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Dmitry

    I agree the provincial population will continue to support the necessity of what Russia is doing. More significant is that the US will be wary of a sudden escalation, which is why they are only sending 100 of the kamikaze drones, but they could be killing hundreds of Russia soldiers a week by May.


    There are already hundreds of artillery targeting drones being prepared to be sent, far more sophisticated than the Turkish one. With a swarm of drones you can have interlocking fields of view from every angle, giving a complete panoramic targeting grid, and by sheer numbers overwhelm the AA missile defenses with.


    The Russians seem to be unwary, the special forces general killed to other day along with his headquarters staff was located where there had been two previous successful strikes on Russian forces, like Ukraine just hit the redial button! Ukraine has the artillery and is going to have much better targeting begining soon. So Russian has a matter of weeks to finish this in my opinion,

    Replies: @Dmitry

  213. @Commentator Mike
    @AP

    Mariuopol

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rZK7o-pyw8

    Replies: @AP, @AP

    That source is a very silly Russian shill. Is he the one you’ve been getting all your misinformation from?

    As I said, much of Mariupol, not just a few buildings, is still there in the hands of Ukrainian forces.

    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
    @AP

    Much, or not so much, of the ruins of Mariupol is in the hands of the UkroNazis. All the cities of the Ukraine could end up looking like that shopping mall in Kiev if that's how the Ukrainians want it. Russians are just playing around.

    Replies: @Aedib, @SimplePseudonymicHandle

  214. After watching quite lot of documentaded war carnage from all sides lately, been listening some fitting musics for this unfolding orgy of destruction, maybe anybody here can recommend something similar in mood, no matter the genre or instruments?

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @sudden death

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZ2WrN93vno

    , @Dmitry
    @sudden death

    For much of the fighting we've seen this month, I would assume some kind of comic or clown music would be your choice.

    VDV "invasion" of Kharkov in February 27, many people were watching live. People were saying that it must just be some lost soldiers, driving the city in Tigr and Kamaz. Walking into the city behind Tigrs. And then all Tigrs abandoned some minutes later.

    It's not matching my Prokofiev romantic music for war.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5QzroijYfY

    I guess Gostomel airport attack in the first day, would have Wagner, "Ride of the Valkyries"

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1505539875105345537

    Replies: @sudden death

  215. sher singh [AKA "Jatt Aryaa"] says:
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Dmitry

    Re PRC media. It is very heterodox:

    - Google translate works very well now for Chinese (which has exceedingly simple grammar, unlike Japanese)

    - I agree with china-russia-all-the-way that Twitter is good resource. Getting a VPN is trivial in PRC and there are a lot of vloggers based within PRC.

    - I would follow this Chinese vlogger who provides translatable-captions. He lives in Germany and has a German husband. He's pro-PRC and critical of US and German MSM. And has been fairly neutral on Ukraine conflict. This episode he's speaking on (I'm using only Google and made no changes):


    感谢这面镜子 给中国预演 让中国少走弯路 | 只有中美拥有真正的数字主权

    Thanks to this mirror for rehearsing for China, so that China can avoid detours | Only China and the United States have true digital sovereignty

     

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysmpSAwcchY

    - There are a lot of anti-PRC media obviously, Epoch Times (Falun Gong) is basically the mirror-image of Xinhua.

    - There's a beautiful Russia girl named Katyusha who has a Mandarin speaking channel. She's very pro-Russia and anti-US. Here's video about how Russians are dealing with sanctions haha--
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gy07fElTTgo

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms, @Barbarossa, @Dmitry, @sher singh

    You follow faggots and expect us to take you seriously?

    I would follow this Chinese vlogger who provides translatable-captions. He lives in Germany and has a German husband. He’s pro-PRC and critical of US and German MSM. And has been fairly neutral on Ukraine conflic

    Considering being pro Ukraine then.
    Thulean Friend lives in Sweden btw Barbarossa. The nice POC meme is there to signal to other white people.

    Our children/servants are well behaved. In reality because the brain views foreign men as akin to dangerous animals you either stand out or sit out of society. The difference between lumpenprole and middle class is assertiveness.

    https://razib.substack.com/p/getting-a-sense-of-the-russian-soul?s=r

    Good article where Razib says Ukraine is a ‘Russia’ wholly in Europe with a soul not split between 2 continents. It’s similar to other inter war ethnic nation states while the RF is of an imperial nature.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/090204121504.htm#:~:text=Summary%3A,members%20of%20the%20out%2Dgroup.

    See reference

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    • Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @sher singh

    Yes I follow a faggot. He has zero content shilling for LGBT so why should I care. That recommendation was for soyboy Dmitry anyways.

    Here's episode with a MMA fighter about picking up girls in Germany. His wife is AfD voter, family former DDR and probably SS
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qikMqlFtQow

  216. A123 says: • Website

    The initial Russian release about the Kinzhal strike sounded solid. However, upon further inspection, the claim appears to have serious flaws. (1)

    We can now say for certain that the strike depicted happened nowhere near the western part of the country and not at some major military weapons storage area. It happened at a heavily bombarded rural area in the far eastern area of Ukraine:

    In satellite imagery The War Zone obtained from Planet Labs, you can clearly see the farm featured in the video. It was partially destroyed by the time the image was taken, on March 12th, 2022, a week before this video was released and news of Kinzhal’s use was distributed:

    This also answers our question as to the UAV’s presence above the target area. The anti-air threat is nothing in Ukraine’s east as it is in the west. This also calls into question, even more, why a missile of Kinzhal’s nature would be used on a target close to Russian territory and on what appears to be a farm’s barn or large chicken coup.

    With all this in mind, it is very unlikely we are seeing a Kinzhal missile being used in the video. Whether or not one was used at all, we cannot answer that. Maybe there was another target somewhere, but this was not it.

    Was it an Iskander, not a Kinzhal? If it was a Kinkhal:

    — Perhaps this really was “just a test”.
    — Or, was something else at the “farm”?

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44840/we-have-questions-about-russias-claimed-kinzhal-hypersonic-missile-use-in-ukraine

     

  217. sher singh [AKA "Jatt Aryaa"] says:
    @Barbarossa
    @sher singh

    I've thought often that when Muslims in the middle-east shout "Great-Satan" in reference to the US it's not exactly surprising when one considers the cultural (and military often enough) exports. It's not as though I disagree with them in their assessment. I certainly see American culture as cancer, and my own life in America as living in a hostile environment. However, I live in an area insulated from the worst influences, among people who broadly share my world-view, so I see a different side of America than it's official "Great-Satan" face.



    On another note, you live in Sweden, if I picked up inferences by others correctly?
    I have this mental image of you working in a professional setting in some office among liberal Swedes; yourself being polite though a little aloof, while the Swedes think to themselves "Isn't he just the nicest person of color!" while they have no idea of what you really think. Maybe it's just a BS idea I came up with, but it amuses me considerably.

    Replies: @sher singh, @sher singh

    • Replies: @Dacian Julien Soros
    @sher singh

    Depressing. I thought the Swedes know that some men have vaginas rather than penises.

  218. sher singh [AKA "Jatt Aryaa"] says:
    @Barbarossa
    @sher singh

    I've thought often that when Muslims in the middle-east shout "Great-Satan" in reference to the US it's not exactly surprising when one considers the cultural (and military often enough) exports. It's not as though I disagree with them in their assessment. I certainly see American culture as cancer, and my own life in America as living in a hostile environment. However, I live in an area insulated from the worst influences, among people who broadly share my world-view, so I see a different side of America than it's official "Great-Satan" face.



    On another note, you live in Sweden, if I picked up inferences by others correctly?
    I have this mental image of you working in a professional setting in some office among liberal Swedes; yourself being polite though a little aloof, while the Swedes think to themselves "Isn't he just the nicest person of color!" while they have no idea of what you really think. Maybe it's just a BS idea I came up with, but it amuses me considerably.

    Replies: @sher singh, @sher singh

    Don’t know if you mean it as such, but we view quiet politeness in the face of mutual contempt as weakness.

    Not gonna say anything about my personal situation because it’s unbecoming. You know I have a beard down to the stomach, and a 3ft long sword carried everyday.

    You can make an inference for how it goes after that. However you perceive it is hopefully to your benefit. I just lift, and carry weapons. 🤷‍♀️

    The people in your area are likely the save brown women variety. Whites inherently & universally carry this ‘schelling point’ or shibboleth against brown masculinity regardless of the political ideology. It’s how we assume every white is gay/pushover.

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @sher singh

    No, didn't mean it in that sense. One sometimes forms a picture in ones head of commenters and I had gotten a garbled idea that Sher Singh was in Europe. I though he had mentioned some electric bike mods he had had done in Stockholm.


    the brain views foreign men as akin to dangerous animals you either stand out or sit out of society

     

    It's hard to argue with that. It's an interesting point of consideration how natural male instincts are sublimated in the modern West. One hardly even sees a man carry himself with pride.

    You would say that whites are inherently wary of "brown masculinity" yet they certainly don't act like it on the policy level. Even normal "good liberals" will often praise diversity for it's own sake, but perhaps this is partly compartmentalization as they will probably actively suppress any "untoward" feelings toward foreigners. There is also the assumption that given exposure to consumerism all non-Westerners will immediately become good libs. They have a hard time understanding the basic mindset of people who have real cultural/ religious devotion.

    Replies: @sher singh

  219. @sudden death
    After watching quite lot of documentaded war carnage from all sides lately, been listening some fitting musics for this unfolding orgy of destruction, maybe anybody here can recommend something similar in mood, no matter the genre or instruments?


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1o7db95gwY

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bbs7e0kDOg

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Dmitry

    • Thanks: sudden death
  220. @AP
    @Commentator Mike

    That source is a very silly Russian shill. Is he the one you’ve been getting all your misinformation from?

    As I said, much of Mariupol, not just a few buildings, is still there in the hands of Ukrainian forces.

    Replies: @Commentator Mike

    Much, or not so much, of the ruins of Mariupol is in the hands of the UkroNazis. All the cities of the Ukraine could end up looking like that shopping mall in Kiev if that’s how the Ukrainians want it. Russians are just playing around.

    • Replies: @Aedib
    @Commentator Mike

    It seems that most people in Mariupol prefer to live in ruins whitout Azovites thugs rather than in the city as before but with these Azovite thugs. Most people are welcoming Chechens and Russians while giving testimony of atrocities made by the Banderites.
    https://twitter.com/gbazov
    Even some women are gloating while Chechens are hunting down Azovites.

    , @SimplePseudonymicHandle
    @Commentator Mike

    Helluva a way to win a war bro.
    This isn't Syria or Chechnya.

    Replies: @Commentator Mike

  221. @Beckow
    @Ron Unz


    ...we’ll probably know within a few weeks who was right and who was wrong. It’s not like waiting thirty years for Global Warming.
     
    The word 'probably' is the salient point. Given the essentially PR nature of the Western public world today, we will probably get the same loud, screaming narratives as with Global Warming and C19. Or Trump and Brexit. They think that dominating the mind-space is all that matters.

    If Russia takes Donbass-Black See coast, but stays out of Kiev - they will call it a "glorious victory". If they take Kiev, but stay out of Galicia, another "victory". If they take all of Ukraine (that would be very stupid) we would hear about "economy collapse", "yellow-and-blue demonstrations", "resistance", etc...

    After the Chechen war the Western experts confidently predicted decades of mayhem. Chechens are fighting Ukies now, none of the experts acknowledge how wrong they were.

    The West is un-capable off admitting a loss. Like the late medieval Church it is always Ad Majorem Dei Gloriam, it is always complex, or too early for them. We see it here: Laxa has called it for Kiev after 10 days, AP has it 40%, Mr Hack is literally out of his mind dancing a victory dance. They live off hope as losing sides always do. But hope when it becomes hopeless turns into hysteria.

    So yes, we may wait for thirty years. If Greta freezes to death she will scream till the end that "the planet is too damn hot". Or even better, that the "global warming caused the freeze". That's just the way they are.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Ron Unz, @Seraphim

    The word ‘probably‘ is the salient point. Given the essentially PR nature of the Western public world today, we will probably get the same loud, screaming narratives as with Global Warming and C19. Or Trump and Brexit. They think that dominating the mind-space is all that matters.

    Sure, that’s fair. But I meant in the opinion of reasonably objective people rather than our dishonest MSM.

  222. @Dmitry
    @Ron Unz


    question of looking at the contrasting arguments and deciding which seem more convincing.
     
    Maybe this was the limit for amateur citizens to view distant wars in the 1980s. But, with the internet, the amateur netizens have every day received additionally a flow of hundreds of videos,* hundreds of photos, of the military fighting.


    As an amateur, most of our views will be idiotic, compared to professionals asked in the media. It's going to be biased by which side we receive information from. But it's still more interesting to try to think about topics yourself, than just receive more mediated information.

    The most important thing in the war, is the equipment used. And there is open information, if not always reliable, to look for equipment and technology.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Russian_Ground_Forces Even a lot of the military specialists, are just looking there , before they go to talk to CNN.

    And you can predict the future battles, like what will be the result if there will be a future mobilization of the reserves in the Russian military side. E.g. you can see what equipment will be mobilized and what weapons are delivered to Ukraine. Tactics will be determined a lot just by the equipment available to each side.


    -

    *
    Forums like this include a flow, although this one censors any of the violent content from the war
    https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/?f=flair_name%3A%22Video%22
    https://www.reddit.com/r/DestroyedTanks/?f=flair_name%3A%22Russo-Ukrainian%20War%22

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Ron Unz

    Maybe this was the limit for amateur citizens to view distant wars in the 1980s. But, with the internet, the amateur netizens have every day received additionally a flow of hundreds of videos,* hundreds of photos, of the military fighting.

    I guess I don’t see what useful information can be obtained by watching low-level combat footage on the Internet.

    Many hundreds of thousands of troops are fighting in Ukraine, so obviously both sides will suffer at least some losses. Obviously, the losses of the enemy will be posted on the Internet. What does that prove? Surely, the Allies could have posted videos of destroyed German units during France 1940.

    Admittedly, if the Russians claimed that the Ukrainians had all surrendered without any fighting, the images would prove otherwise. But I think that’s about it.

    • Agree: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Ron Unz


    I don’t see what useful information can be obtained by watching low-level combat footage on the Internet.
     
    It is the most high level and quantity of ground combat footage that has been seen in a war so far, so it is only low level compared to what? Perhaps the drone videos from Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020.

    Obviously, the losses of the enemy will be posted on the Internet. What does that prove?
     
    It allows you to see what weapons are used in the war. You can see they are using so many BMP-1ps for example.

    Allows people to count vehicles that are seen visually confirmed as destroyed as well as which weapons they are specifically. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    Allows you to see how they are destroyed, what tactics are used - as a result of smartphones, it's the most quantity of video ever seen from war before.


    Surely, the Allies could have posted videos of destroyed German units during France 1940.
     
    It would have been one of the more valuable evidence of the fighting, used by historians. If videos were uploaded live, then the generals in the Soviet Union would be studying it to learn what tactics are used in France, how effective or vulnerable equipment or technology was.
    , @Wokechoke
    @Ron Unz

    The Germans did lose every tank v tank battle during the Blitzkrieg in France. Arras, Gembloux and Stonne.

    , @songbird
    @Ron Unz

    There's probably a major imbalance, as Russian soldiers are banned from carrying their cellphones in the field of operations.

  223. @Barbarossa
    @Ron Unz


    the more high-value British and Americans the Russians kill, the more likely our military may pressure our political morons to start being sensible.
     
    I'm wouldn't count on it working that way. It's not like the military guys were advocating for a sane approach to Afghanistan, for example. The military brass have a hammer and all they know how to do is hit stuff, as far as I can tell.

    Putin outright military superiority over NATO, with the capability of annihilating our conventional forces.
     
    As others have said as well, I wouldn't count on Russia having lots of those laying about. It seems more plausible to me that they have a few operational and can project some force with them, but would be completely unable to use them to any devastating advantage. That's rank speculation on my part, but I don't think Russia has the budget to have cranked hypersonics out on some super fast time-frame.

    Also, I haven't been all that impressed by Russian military performance or readiness thus far. Setting aside all the fog of war and partisan wishful thinking from all sides, it seems underwhelming. My assessment of Russian military might has been downgraded from what I had expected previous to the Ukraine invasion. In an all out war with NATO, I would expect Russia to get beaten badly. Even financially based constraints alone would probably see munitions run low far before better financed countries in Europe and the US.

    Sure, the Pentagon wastes immense amounts of money on boondoggles and ineffectual bloat, but that doesn't mean they don't have a lot of hard resources at their disposal too. If it came to a hot war with Russia, I would tend to believe that they would be playing hardball since Russian regime change would be such a Pentagon/ Neo-con wet dream.

    Replies: @Ron Unz, @Sean

    As others have said as well, I wouldn’t count on Russia having lots of those laying about. It seems more plausible to me that they have a few operational and can project some force with them, but would be completely unable to use them to any devastating advantage…If it came to a hot war with Russia, I would tend to believe that they would be playing hardball since Russian regime change would be such a Pentagon/ Neo-con wet dream.

    Well, at least we (apparently) know that some of the hypersonics exist and they work. My impression is that just a few of them would be enough to sink an American carrier, which would have gigantic international geostrategic impact.

    And couldn’t a relatively small number of those missiles destroy our NATO military airbases? I also have the strong impression that Russian air defense systems are much better than American ones, which is why countries prefer to buy them. And don’t the Russian land forces vastly outnumber NATO’s greatly diminished numbers?

    I think there’s a 0% chance that Putin wants a war with NATO in Europe, but if he did, I’d guess he’d have the clear initial advantage.

    Again, I claim ZERO expertise in these military issues, but this is the impression I’ve been getting from reading the views of those who apparently do.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Ron Unz


    And don’t the Russian land forces vastly outnumber NATO’s greatly diminished numbers?
     
    Most European militaries are pretty pathetic nowadays, but Russia's armed forces aren't the 1980s Red army either. The general belief seems to be that Russia would quickly start losing a conventional war against the combined might of NATO, and then probably resort to nuclear means for "de-escalation". In a way it's the reverse of the Cold War situation.

    Replies: @Commentator Mike, @Ron Unz

    , @Barbarossa
    @Ron Unz

    I'm no military expert either, so I'm in no position to make any authoritative pronouncements on the matter.

    However, NATO still has more active duty troops than Russia and a far far higher total military budget.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/584286/number-of-military-personnel-in-nato-countries/

    The money advantage would probably be most visible in logistics and resupply. Given the large amount of military it supports on a relatively small budget it seems unlikely that Russia could sustain a broad based European land war. If the action was taking place on Russian soil that would help alleviate the logistics issue as it has in past wars.


    sink an American carrier, which would have gigantic international geostrategic impact.
     
    If I had to bet, I would say that while this may be the case, I would doubt that (is such a thing stayed non-nuclear) Russia would have the operational depth to survive and make such an event one of lasting advantage.

    Hopefully we never find out though. I understand the idea that the West's military might is a paper tiger and I can agree that it is overrated. However, the military performance in some hobbled regime change/ policing operation should also probably not be confused for it's potential performance in a real gloves off war.

    Replies: @Ron Unz

    , @Wokechoke
    @Ron Unz

    Russia could hand over a battery of them Daggers to China in exchange for limitless credit.


    Time is approaching quickly. I would not want to be a deck hand on those carriers.


    On a lighter note, my rule with the BBC is that they get you accurate information, but only two weeks after it’s useful information.

    Mariupol for example has fallen. We are just starting to hear about it now.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    , @prime noticer
    @Ron Unz

    my take is that the RUS military is set up as a deterrent force to discourage US aggression. this isn't the Soviet Union days and RUS is aware of that. they have a lower budget and a smaller force, so they've arranged their units accordingly. they can't compete in all areas, so they maximized funding, engineering, and defense buildout for the things that are best for stand off capability.

    in short, that's mainly missile technology, where RUS stuff is definitely better than the US inventory in certain areas. they have some improvements over US tech in other areas, but missiles is where they put most of their effort. RUS and CHI have deliberately put tons of effort into hypersonic missiles as a deterrent tech, while the Pentagon has back burnered that stuff, as it's less important for their 'conquering third world countries' military agenda, where having carriers matters more. RUS also has better AA missiles than the US, but then again, they've had better AA missiles than the US since the S-75 in 1957. so this is not new.

    RUS is behind the US in plenty of other techs and build outs, but that's ok, because this is not about invading a dozen countries and maintaining 100 bases around the world. they don't need a 300 ship surface fleet. having 60 nuclear submarines and those ballistic missile subs is a lot more important. having thousands of ICBM with MIRVs as a deterrent is much more important than having the same amount of armor as NATO. RUS has allowed their army units to lag behind their air force, submarine, and missile units, because the army is the least important branch here for deterrent.

    RUS definitely DOES NOT have the overall conventional advantage over NATO. no way. they do have better missiles though, which is the way they hope to stave off aggression. RUS and CHI both aim to have missiles that can hit US carriers without being stopped. also by the way, without the complete random blind luck of Elon Musk and SpaceX, RUS would have much better space rockets than the US, and be able to get people into space while the US would be stuck on the ground. they now control the ISS, and the non-SpaceX US contractors are dependent on RUS rockets.

    that's against the combined forces of NATO though (mainly the US really). the last month, some people are starting to get the idea that RUS could not even take on Poland and other crazy ideas like this, when in reality, RUS would roll over France or Germany or the UK separately no problem. they'd sink their navy in a week, high altitude bomb and missile their cities into rubble, unleash their drones which they mostly aren't using against UKR, deploy satellite war against western spy sats, and artillery and tank them into submission.

    , @SimplePseudonymicHandle
    @Ron Unz

    from 145:


    In effect, the campaign gives the Russians a nice opportunity to test some of their hypersonics under battlefield conditions. Assuming they’re working as claimed, that might give Putin outright military superiority over NATO, with the capability of annihilating our conventional forces
     
    Mmmm, eeh.
    There's a lot that goes into it.
    First - one must dismiss, with prejudice, military-tech-whizz-bang-oo-oo guys, and Russian military tech fanboys, and Putin fanboys.

    Then - you look at stuff armchair tacticians don't know about. Like: just how many are there? Where are they? How well are the teams (teams!) trained? What's their attrition rate? How much corruption is in the supply chain, and the command chain?

    Can they get the few they have to where they need to be, to be useful? Can they do this before they are targeted? Do their targets move? I'm leaving a lot out.

    There are a hell-a-lot, of ways to not be hit.

    Do you have any idea how hard it is to hit a moving target? High speed: makes the problem worse, not better. First indicator of a Russian-tech-fanboy: this fact has never occurred to them - because learning facts isn't what they do. So: don't listen to them, or if you do - place your bet on the opposite of what they tell you.


    From current:


    And couldn’t a relatively small number of those missiles destroy our NATO military airbases? I also have the strong impression that Russian air defense systems are much better than American ones, which is why countries prefer to buy them. And don’t the Russian land forces vastly outnumber NATO’s greatly diminished numbers?
     
    And couldn’t a relatively small number of those missiles destroy our NATO military airbases?

    Probably not.

    I also have the strong impression that Russian air defense systems are much better than American ones

    This whole thing: doesn't work the way you think it does

    And don’t the Russian land forces vastly outnumber NATO’s greatly diminished numbers?

    No. Not at all.


    I think there’s a 0% chance that Putin wants a war with NATO in Europe, but if he did, I’d guess he’d have the clear initial advantage.
     
    I'm a bit beside myself trying to figure how you can draw that conclusion - that he'd have an "initial" advantage, or one at all.


    Putin has done a very regrettable thing. I suppose if the outcome is that somehow the oligarchy is pushed aside and Russia becomes a place for Russians, then there can be a silver lining in it all.

    But the Chinese understand weakness. Looking forward Russia will have more to fear from her "friends" then from the west.

  224. @Dmitry
    @Sean

    In my opinion, casualties of contract soldiers can go high in Russia, without so much influence in public opinion, as almost all the soldiers are from villages and poor cities in the provincial outbacks. Mostly their families are poor people without influence and they are being told to not to make noise, so the casualties might be easy to absorb from the politicians' view. Nobody from central Moscow has been dying in Ukraine.

    Perhaps, there should be still some significant reserve of contract soldiers that can be moved from other areas of the country. If there had to be mobilization of conscripts for a longer war, the situation could start to influence public opinion, although even then it is more of a working class balance in conscripted youth.

    But more elite equipment is already in Ukraine. When more reserve forces' equipment enters Ukraine, then it will imply using worse equipment, like a higher proportion of armored vehicles without ERA. e.g. T-72A will have more vulnerability for a wider range of weapons that exist in Ukraine than T-72B3.

    Similarly, more older version of BMP-2 would be going there, as well as more BMP-1. (Already there are a lot of BMP-1 (1960s designed vehicles) in Ukraine destroyed or abandoned.)


    Ukraine’s drones, which there may be swarms of in a month. Some of them such as the tiny switchback
     
    Only 100 American "switchblade" munitions are going to Ukraine and they only have munition of a 40mm grenade. According to media, they require skill in the operator to use, so they might not be effective in the beginning.

    Replies: @Sean

    I agree the provincial population will continue to support the necessity of what Russia is doing. More significant is that the US will be wary of a sudden escalation, which is why they are only sending 100 of the kamikaze drones, but they could be killing hundreds of Russia soldiers a week by May.

    There are already hundreds of artillery targeting drones being prepared to be sent, far more sophisticated than the Turkish one. With a swarm of drones you can have interlocking fields of view from every angle, giving a complete panoramic targeting grid, and by sheer numbers overwhelm the AA missile defenses with.

    The Russians seem to be unwary, the special forces general killed to other day along with his headquarters staff was located where there had been two previous successful strikes on Russian forces, like Ukraine just hit the redial button! Ukraine has the artillery and is going to have much better targeting begining soon. So Russian has a matter of weeks to finish this in my opinion,

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Sean

    There is indication of possible mobilization of reserves in Russia already, so these could probably go to the "business trip near Ukraine" very quickly (sorry in a Russian resource, but journalists imply this is possible in their polite "read between the lines" way https://www.e1.ru/text/gorod/2022/03/22/70524014 )

    Reserves are already experienced and trained, although psychologically they might not be too happy on average (evacuated from their civilian jobs, for such a "business trip near Donbass").

    Reserves will also be using a less modernized equipment (elite equipment is already in Ukraine). E.g. tanks without ERA, BMP-1ps.

    Therefore, casualty rates would increase with introduction of reserves, as a larger spectrum of Ukrainian weapons will be able to destroy or damage something like T-72A.

    There is also capacity to use eventually, already conscripted, conscripts. There will be around 250,000 conscripts automatically this year. With some months, they could go to Ukraine. This is the size of the contract army.

    So, there can be a complete new army, with hundreds of thousands, you could send to Ukraine, perhaps in the summer, without needing a new conscription (without need for "martial law", etc). But this new army, would further have issues of reduced equipment quality. In addition, there was a bad experience of using conscripts in Grozny. So, perhaps, there can be some of the leadership who would be viewing this as a bad idea and try to avoid doing it by any way possible.

    -

    Problems with conscripts in motorized rifle units used by Yeltsin in Grozny (and later Putin in 1999-2000), was both political and military. Military terms, conscripts in Chechnya had difficulty of organization, as well as problems like maintaining their vehicles or equipment, lower discipline to the civilian population, etc.

    Replies: @Sean

  225. @sher singh
    @Barbarossa

    Don't know if you mean it as such, but we view quiet politeness in the face of mutual contempt as weakness.

    Not gonna say anything about my personal situation because it's unbecoming. You know I have a beard down to the stomach, and a 3ft long sword carried everyday.

    You can make an inference for how it goes after that. However you perceive it is hopefully to your benefit. I just lift, and carry weapons. 🤷‍♀️

    The people in your area are likely the save brown women variety. Whites inherently & universally carry this 'schelling point' or shibboleth against brown masculinity regardless of the political ideology. It's how we assume every white is gay/pushover.

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    No, didn’t mean it in that sense. One sometimes forms a picture in ones head of commenters and I had gotten a garbled idea that Sher Singh was in Europe. I though he had mentioned some electric bike mods he had had done in Stockholm.

    the brain views foreign men as akin to dangerous animals you either stand out or sit out of society

    It’s hard to argue with that. It’s an interesting point of consideration how natural male instincts are sublimated in the modern West. One hardly even sees a man carry himself with pride.

    You would say that whites are inherently wary of “brown masculinity” yet they certainly don’t act like it on the policy level. Even normal “good liberals” will often praise diversity for it’s own sake, but perhaps this is partly compartmentalization as they will probably actively suppress any “untoward” feelings toward foreigners. There is also the assumption that given exposure to consumerism all non-Westerners will immediately become good libs. They have a hard time understanding the basic mindset of people who have real cultural/ religious devotion.

    • Replies: @sher singh
    @Barbarossa

    Sher Singh is my pc account this is my phone.
    I mean look at their actions like forcing sex Ed on brown youth.

    They support brown liberal masculinity & white liberal masculinity. Whereby, they bet that the patronage & sinecures make up for the sublimated male instincts.

    We wouldn't be the first to find our elite effeminate nor the last I assume. Not the Khalsa obviously.

    I did have an ebike before, but not in Stockholm lol. I think everyone understands power, and religions are institutions. Libs stopped critiquing Islam after Charlie Hebdo for example.

    Ultimately read point 9 please search personal conviction https://www.sikhphilosophy.net/threads/the-sant-sipahi-tradition-flows-from-guru-nanak-himself.36543/

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    Replies: @Barbarossa

  226. @Brás Cubas
    @utu

    I think you will like this:
    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1505578950722007040

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Yellowface Anon, @utu

    My explanation for this is being pro-vaxx tends to see things thru a moralistic lens so that Ukraine’s “democracy/little men” must be defended against Russia/Putin at all costs, even if that means WWIII and down the road; being anti-vaxx tends to be cynical, and they either detest whatever the neocon establishment does to increase strife (anti-establishment/realist), think US/Canada should be isolationist (libertarian/conservative), or downright support Russia.

    • Agree: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @Brás Cubas
    @Yellowface Anon

    I think your explanation is not completely wrong, but I can't say it is right because I myself don't know what goes on here. A superficial analysis would imply that people fighting for their rights against an oppressive State (even if they are partially or completely misguided) would understand the Ukrainians fighting for their country against an oppressive invader.
    As reality belies this hypothesis, another is necessary. Maybe they are just extreme individualists. They can get together in a freedom convoy, but fighting a war would be too much of a collective endeavor for them. (That is closer to your view, I think.)
    Or maybe they are very well informed and know there is no possible victory for Ukraine. (I wouldn't bet on this one, though.)

  227. every day, less and less videos out of UKR of destroyed RUS units. and when videos are shown, RUS units are further into UKR territory.

    using war math, 1:1 kills would greatly favor the UKR defenders. but does anybody believe that? it has to be more like 3:1 for RUS. so if 10,000 russians, then around 30,000 ukrainians. i’m just using basic war math that is used in every modern era conflict. UKR can’t sustain loses like that for 2 months. RUS units on the other hand can go on like that for a while, and they’re being resupplied.

    personally i don’t believe those RUS numbers. but heck, i’m not there in the action. maybe that’s close to accurate. but it would mean UKR forces are in big trouble. note that i hate this conflict, and seeing these european guys killing each other because neocons in the US State Department, with zero skin in the game, want this stuff to happen. after it’s over, thousands of slavs will be dead, but the neocons will slink away to book deals and sinecure jobs. how many jews will even die in combat here? like 12? certainly not a single one of the neocons in the US who provoked the situation for years.

    i feel most bad for UKR civilians who strongly felt the need to join up, and then got blown away by RUS regular forces. i understand the 3 million people who left to avoid conscription. lots of them will come back later.

    • Agree: LondonBob
  228. @Ron Unz
    @Dmitry


    Maybe this was the limit for amateur citizens to view distant wars in the 1980s. But, with the internet, the amateur netizens have every day received additionally a flow of hundreds of videos,* hundreds of photos, of the military fighting.
     
    I guess I don't see what useful information can be obtained by watching low-level combat footage on the Internet.

    Many hundreds of thousands of troops are fighting in Ukraine, so obviously both sides will suffer at least some losses. Obviously, the losses of the enemy will be posted on the Internet. What does that prove? Surely, the Allies could have posted videos of destroyed German units during France 1940.

    Admittedly, if the Russians claimed that the Ukrainians had all surrendered without any fighting, the images would prove otherwise. But I think that's about it.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Wokechoke, @songbird

    I don’t see what useful information can be obtained by watching low-level combat footage on the Internet.

    It is the most high level and quantity of ground combat footage that has been seen in a war so far, so it is only low level compared to what? Perhaps the drone videos from Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020.

    Obviously, the losses of the enemy will be posted on the Internet. What does that prove?

    It allows you to see what weapons are used in the war. You can see they are using so many BMP-1ps for example.

    Allows people to count vehicles that are seen visually confirmed as destroyed as well as which weapons they are specifically. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    Allows you to see how they are destroyed, what tactics are used – as a result of smartphones, it’s the most quantity of video ever seen from war before.

    Surely, the Allies could have posted videos of destroyed German units during France 1940.

    It would have been one of the more valuable evidence of the fighting, used by historians. If videos were uploaded live, then the generals in the Soviet Union would be studying it to learn what tactics are used in France, how effective or vulnerable equipment or technology was.

  229. we could probably divide UKR forces into 3 groups. the patriotic UKR regular troops, who are defending their nation against invaders, even if most of them know the government is a bunch of US puppets who plunder the economy and don’t offer much ‘democracy’ or ‘freedom’ to them or the average citizen. i feel really bad for these guys.

    second are the irregular militia guys who are a big part of the problem and one of the main reasons RUS went in. those guys are all gonna get killed, if they don’t desert first, and i don’t feel bad about that. their tactics, while understandable to this point, are not really getting the results they want of dragging NATO into the conflict, so at some point, hiding out in hospitals and nuclear reactors and daring RUS forces to return fire, is pure scum stuff. it’s not surprising that when surrounded, they start firing on civilians as one of their last actions.

    third are the regime loyalists, a smaller group than the first two who are ultra nationalists like the Klitschko brothers. i always enjoyed watching their boxing matches, but i never liked their politics. i still don’t want to see Vitali and Wlad get killed, even though i think there’s a 40% chance of them getting killed in action. however, there’s no way this group of people wasn’t aware that the US was arming and training the irregular militia guys for years, deliberately because they wanted them to go kill russians. so how blameless can the regime loyalists be. it gets harder to feel bad about them getting KIA if they do.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @prime noticer

    There’s three.

    Highly trained guys who work with NATO.

    National Guard, police, auxillary and Azov, Donbas etc. Politically shady.

    Navy. The naval infantry keep showing up. Not sure but they seem like they are found toward the coast. Could be called marines I guess.

  230. German_reader says:
    @Ron Unz
    @Barbarossa


    As others have said as well, I wouldn’t count on Russia having lots of those laying about. It seems more plausible to me that they have a few operational and can project some force with them, but would be completely unable to use them to any devastating advantage...If it came to a hot war with Russia, I would tend to believe that they would be playing hardball since Russian regime change would be such a Pentagon/ Neo-con wet dream.
     
    Well, at least we (apparently) know that some of the hypersonics exist and they work. My impression is that just a few of them would be enough to sink an American carrier, which would have gigantic international geostrategic impact.

    And couldn't a relatively small number of those missiles destroy our NATO military airbases? I also have the strong impression that Russian air defense systems are much better than American ones, which is why countries prefer to buy them. And don't the Russian land forces vastly outnumber NATO's greatly diminished numbers?

    I think there's a 0% chance that Putin wants a war with NATO in Europe, but if he did, I'd guess he'd have the clear initial advantage.

    Again, I claim ZERO expertise in these military issues, but this is the impression I've been getting from reading the views of those who apparently do.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Barbarossa, @Wokechoke, @prime noticer, @SimplePseudonymicHandle

    And don’t the Russian land forces vastly outnumber NATO’s greatly diminished numbers?

    Most European militaries are pretty pathetic nowadays, but Russia’s armed forces aren’t the 1980s Red army either. The general belief seems to be that Russia would quickly start losing a conventional war against the combined might of NATO, and then probably resort to nuclear means for “de-escalation”. In a way it’s the reverse of the Cold War situation.

    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
    @German_reader

    It's even debatable if NATO would be united against Russia. Would all those NATO countries really send troops against Russia? Greeks? Hungarians? Italians? Bulgarians? Maybe it's worth finding out. And then Russia could hit the least enthusiastic to send them scurrying. And destroying a few US bases in Italy and Greece would have them pull out, no doubt about it.

    , @Ron Unz
    @German_reader


    The general belief seems to be that Russia would quickly start losing a conventional war against the combined might of NATO, and then probably resort to nuclear means for “de-escalation”.
     
    Maybe. I've never looked into the issue.

    But a huge factor to consider is the total dominance of Western media and propaganda, so that all supposedly "objective" information has to be recalibrated based upon this extremely tilted informational playing-field.

    For example, in late 2019 America was ranked #1 in the world at being able to handle a sudden disease epidemic and Britain #2, with China totally mediocre, but the reality was extremely different.

    https://www.unz.com/runz/ukraine-and-biowarfare-conspiracy-theories/#comment-5226668

    Similarly, the total collapse of our client regime in Afghanistan within just a few days was entirely contrary to all predictions.

    Back a few months ago, I checked with a couple of mainstream policy-analysts I know, and they'd been entirely unaware of Russia's huge advantage in hypersonics, which the MoA blogger has persuasively argued may give Russia outright military superiority.

    So maybe Russia would lose in a conventional war with NATO, but I suspect otherwise.

    Replies: @German_reader, @prime noticer

  231. @Brás Cubas
    @utu

    I think you will like this:
    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1505578950722007040

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Yellowface Anon, @utu

    Not surprising at all. The belief formation created by covid disinformation operation for and by covid deniers and anti-vaxxers appealed toand enhanced non-conformism, opposition to government and complete distrust of MSM narratives. If you end up believing that TPTB represented by the MSM and the government want to take your rights and want you to be infertile, to have brain nano implants delivered or to be dead by vaccination certainly you are not going to believe anything else flowing from the MSM. So when Russia and Putin are bad in the MSM then the deplorable rabble will believe the opposite and will support Putin seeing him as one of them who also fights TPTB who stand behind it all. Not much prodding is needed to get on the pro Kremlin path.

    The covid disinformation operation was run from the very beginning from Lubyanka. Look at operatives like Mike Whitney or Israel Shamir who were producing themselves at TUR. Interestingly Ron Unz did not recognize the utility of that disinformation until much later though he admired effectiveness of Andrew Anglin disinformation efforts and persisted within the orthodox interpretation of the pandemic while developing his own disinformation theory of covid origin that predictably blamed the US and exonerated China which however hinged on the assumption that the virus was real and the mortality was high justifying the countermeasures which put him at odds with Kremlin based covid disinformation represented by Mike Whitney who among others was targeting the libertarian nut jobs.

    Ron Unz wanted to help China very much but did not realize that Lubyanka people subcontracted by Beijing knew much better how to go about it. They drove the argument about covid to the ad absurdum point while Ron Unz approach was the old fashion rational cause-and-effect narrative. They succeeded while his theory did not get traction. But he did not make the same mistake when it came to Ukraine. He was 100% with Kremlin from the day one. Mike Whitney was recalled from Lubyanka’s covid war and thrown on the Ukrainian front.

    The question is how early Lubyanka people recognized that the army of deplorable rabble with their anti-vaxxer media resources could be utilized as channels for propaganda for Putin war with Ukraine. Certainly they used the anti-vaxxers channels to their advantage when the Freedom Convoy was launched in mid January 2022 to paralyze Ottawa’s government by which they gained support among the rightoids all over the world. Subsequent Kremlin claims of American biolabs in Ukraine nicely clinched anti-vaxxers with Putin cause of subjugating Ukraine as Kremlin propaganda about the neo-Nazis in Ukraine was ineffective among the rightoids who often entertain sympathies for the real Nazis. “Nazi’ is not a derogatory power word for them but ‘fauci’ and ‘biolab’ are.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
    @utu


    The covid disinformation operation was run from the very beginning from Lubyanka. Look at operatives like Mike Whitney or Israel Shamir who were producing themselves at TUR.
     
    Actually, you're forgetting to mention that #1 top Flu Hoaxer in America, namely President Donald Trump. I guess that just proves that Russiagate was correct after all, and Trump was being run from Lubyanka all along...

    Replies: @A123

    , @Brás Cubas
    @utu

    I don't find your explanation persuasive, but as I told Yellowface I don't have a strong opinion on this because I don't understand the phenomenon.
    I find it more persuasive in the specific case of Covid/Vax/etc (though even there I give it less weight than you do). In the case of Covid/Vax ordinary people in North America actively search for information because it's an issue that has a direct impact on their lives. Thus the odds they will find disinformation from Russia is high.
    I expect it is less so in the case of a distant war which will not affect their lives in the same manner.
    I may be wrong here; after all the war is probably affecting them in indirect ways (price of petrol, bread, etc). Anyway, I made some considerations in my reply to Yellowface, but, as in here, I am not very confident in what I wrote.

    , @Yellowface Anon
    @utu

    Do you actually have counter-proofs for fertility after vaxx? The only way we can surely find out is to look at national-level fertility data in 2022 and 2023, not "studies" done to small groups of mothers.

  232. @Ron Unz
    @Barbarossa


    As others have said as well, I wouldn’t count on Russia having lots of those laying about. It seems more plausible to me that they have a few operational and can project some force with them, but would be completely unable to use them to any devastating advantage...If it came to a hot war with Russia, I would tend to believe that they would be playing hardball since Russian regime change would be such a Pentagon/ Neo-con wet dream.
     
    Well, at least we (apparently) know that some of the hypersonics exist and they work. My impression is that just a few of them would be enough to sink an American carrier, which would have gigantic international geostrategic impact.

    And couldn't a relatively small number of those missiles destroy our NATO military airbases? I also have the strong impression that Russian air defense systems are much better than American ones, which is why countries prefer to buy them. And don't the Russian land forces vastly outnumber NATO's greatly diminished numbers?

    I think there's a 0% chance that Putin wants a war with NATO in Europe, but if he did, I'd guess he'd have the clear initial advantage.

    Again, I claim ZERO expertise in these military issues, but this is the impression I've been getting from reading the views of those who apparently do.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Barbarossa, @Wokechoke, @prime noticer, @SimplePseudonymicHandle

    I’m no military expert either, so I’m in no position to make any authoritative pronouncements on the matter.

    However, NATO still has more active duty troops than Russia and a far far higher total military budget.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/584286/number-of-military-personnel-in-nato-countries/

    The money advantage would probably be most visible in logistics and resupply. Given the large amount of military it supports on a relatively small budget it seems unlikely that Russia could sustain a broad based European land war. If the action was taking place on Russian soil that would help alleviate the logistics issue as it has in past wars.

    sink an American carrier, which would have gigantic international geostrategic impact.

    If I had to bet, I would say that while this may be the case, I would doubt that (is such a thing stayed non-nuclear) Russia would have the operational depth to survive and make such an event one of lasting advantage.

    Hopefully we never find out though. I understand the idea that the West’s military might is a paper tiger and I can agree that it is overrated. However, the military performance in some hobbled regime change/ policing operation should also probably not be confused for it’s potential performance in a real gloves off war.

    • Agree: V. K. Ovelund
    • Replies: @Ron Unz
    @Barbarossa


    However, NATO still has more active duty troops than Russia and a far far higher total military budget....The money advantage would probably be most visible in logistics and resupply.
     
    Sure, as I'd emphasized in my own recent article, Russia would be totally outmatched industrially in a war against America+NATO+Japan. However, I'm not sure that would be the case for Russia+China+Iran.

    And in the shorter term situation, Scott Ritter seems quite knowledgeable and he's been arguing that America's total military focus on low-intensity combat over the last 20 years has severely damaged our ability to take on a peer or near-peer military such as Russia. Here's one of his discussions from a year ago:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Okhgsdezpk0

    It's a lot like those recent stories of mercenaries with lots of experience fighting guerrillas in Iraq or Afghanistan going over to Ukraine and getting wiped out.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Triteleia Laxa

  233. @prime noticer
    we could probably divide UKR forces into 3 groups. the patriotic UKR regular troops, who are defending their nation against invaders, even if most of them know the government is a bunch of US puppets who plunder the economy and don't offer much 'democracy' or 'freedom' to them or the average citizen. i feel really bad for these guys.

    second are the irregular militia guys who are a big part of the problem and one of the main reasons RUS went in. those guys are all gonna get killed, if they don't desert first, and i don't feel bad about that. their tactics, while understandable to this point, are not really getting the results they want of dragging NATO into the conflict, so at some point, hiding out in hospitals and nuclear reactors and daring RUS forces to return fire, is pure scum stuff. it's not surprising that when surrounded, they start firing on civilians as one of their last actions.

    third are the regime loyalists, a smaller group than the first two who are ultra nationalists like the Klitschko brothers. i always enjoyed watching their boxing matches, but i never liked their politics. i still don't want to see Vitali and Wlad get killed, even though i think there's a 40% chance of them getting killed in action. however, there's no way this group of people wasn't aware that the US was arming and training the irregular militia guys for years, deliberately because they wanted them to go kill russians. so how blameless can the regime loyalists be. it gets harder to feel bad about them getting KIA if they do.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    There’s three.

    Highly trained guys who work with NATO.

    National Guard, police, auxillary and Azov, Donbas etc. Politically shady.

    Navy. The naval infantry keep showing up. Not sure but they seem like they are found toward the coast. Could be called marines I guess.

  234. Who wrote Zelenksy’s speech to the Bundestag, in which he said Germans were responsible for another Holocaust in Ukraine by buying Russian oil? And who wrote the one to Knesset, where he also evoked the Holocaust?

    Was it a Jew writing the first, and a German writing the second? LOL.
    _________

    Someone should make abstracts of all his foreign speeches, as I feel that each would be revealing about national-political narratives and values.

    • Agree: German_reader, Pharmakon
  235. @Ron Unz
    @Dmitry


    Maybe this was the limit for amateur citizens to view distant wars in the 1980s. But, with the internet, the amateur netizens have every day received additionally a flow of hundreds of videos,* hundreds of photos, of the military fighting.
     
    I guess I don't see what useful information can be obtained by watching low-level combat footage on the Internet.

    Many hundreds of thousands of troops are fighting in Ukraine, so obviously both sides will suffer at least some losses. Obviously, the losses of the enemy will be posted on the Internet. What does that prove? Surely, the Allies could have posted videos of destroyed German units during France 1940.

    Admittedly, if the Russians claimed that the Ukrainians had all surrendered without any fighting, the images would prove otherwise. But I think that's about it.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Wokechoke, @songbird

    The Germans did lose every tank v tank battle during the Blitzkrieg in France. Arras, Gembloux and Stonne.

  236. @German_reader
    @Ron Unz


    And don’t the Russian land forces vastly outnumber NATO’s greatly diminished numbers?
     
    Most European militaries are pretty pathetic nowadays, but Russia's armed forces aren't the 1980s Red army either. The general belief seems to be that Russia would quickly start losing a conventional war against the combined might of NATO, and then probably resort to nuclear means for "de-escalation". In a way it's the reverse of the Cold War situation.

    Replies: @Commentator Mike, @Ron Unz

    It’s even debatable if NATO would be united against Russia. Would all those NATO countries really send troops against Russia? Greeks? Hungarians? Italians? Bulgarians? Maybe it’s worth finding out. And then Russia could hit the least enthusiastic to send them scurrying. And destroying a few US bases in Italy and Greece would have them pull out, no doubt about it.

  237. @Ron Unz
    @Barbarossa


    As others have said as well, I wouldn’t count on Russia having lots of those laying about. It seems more plausible to me that they have a few operational and can project some force with them, but would be completely unable to use them to any devastating advantage...If it came to a hot war with Russia, I would tend to believe that they would be playing hardball since Russian regime change would be such a Pentagon/ Neo-con wet dream.
     
    Well, at least we (apparently) know that some of the hypersonics exist and they work. My impression is that just a few of them would be enough to sink an American carrier, which would have gigantic international geostrategic impact.

    And couldn't a relatively small number of those missiles destroy our NATO military airbases? I also have the strong impression that Russian air defense systems are much better than American ones, which is why countries prefer to buy them. And don't the Russian land forces vastly outnumber NATO's greatly diminished numbers?

    I think there's a 0% chance that Putin wants a war with NATO in Europe, but if he did, I'd guess he'd have the clear initial advantage.

    Again, I claim ZERO expertise in these military issues, but this is the impression I've been getting from reading the views of those who apparently do.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Barbarossa, @Wokechoke, @prime noticer, @SimplePseudonymicHandle

    Russia could hand over a battery of them Daggers to China in exchange for limitless credit.

    Time is approaching quickly. I would not want to be a deck hand on those carriers.

    On a lighter note, my rule with the BBC is that they get you accurate information, but only two weeks after it’s useful information.

    Mariupol for example has fallen. We are just starting to hear about it now.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Wokechoke

    Pushilin says that it will take at least a week more to take Mariupol. Strelkov on VK expects even longer.

    Mariupol is an Alamo. Large resources are being devoted to it which gives time for Ukraine to arm, train and move the reserves (trained former soldiers) into place. They are already called up and outnumber the Russian forces. Those Polish planes might turn up then too.

    And Strelkov is laying into the Chechens. He says they went to Mariupol for a photo shoot. I agree. Their real job is to shoot potential mutineers.

    Replies: @Greasy William, @Yevardian

  238. @German_reader
    @Ron Unz


    And don’t the Russian land forces vastly outnumber NATO’s greatly diminished numbers?
     
    Most European militaries are pretty pathetic nowadays, but Russia's armed forces aren't the 1980s Red army either. The general belief seems to be that Russia would quickly start losing a conventional war against the combined might of NATO, and then probably resort to nuclear means for "de-escalation". In a way it's the reverse of the Cold War situation.

    Replies: @Commentator Mike, @Ron Unz

    The general belief seems to be that Russia would quickly start losing a conventional war against the combined might of NATO, and then probably resort to nuclear means for “de-escalation”.

    Maybe. I’ve never looked into the issue.

    But a huge factor to consider is the total dominance of Western media and propaganda, so that all supposedly “objective” information has to be recalibrated based upon this extremely tilted informational playing-field.

    For example, in late 2019 America was ranked #1 in the world at being able to handle a sudden disease epidemic and Britain #2, with China totally mediocre, but the reality was extremely different.

    https://www.unz.com/runz/ukraine-and-biowarfare-conspiracy-theories/#comment-5226668

    Similarly, the total collapse of our client regime in Afghanistan within just a few days was entirely contrary to all predictions.

    Back a few months ago, I checked with a couple of mainstream policy-analysts I know, and they’d been entirely unaware of Russia’s huge advantage in hypersonics, which the MoA blogger has persuasively argued may give Russia outright military superiority.

    So maybe Russia would lose in a conventional war with NATO, but I suspect otherwise.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Ron Unz


    with China totally mediocre, but the reality was extremely different.
     
    Aren't the Chinese still doing huge lockdowns in some bizarre zero Covid attempt? Not sure imo if that really indicates their system is that efficient and rational.
    Russia seems to have done pretty badly with Corona btw (something admitted even by the former host of thi blog iirc).

    Replies: @Ron Unz

    , @prime noticer
    @Ron Unz

    US force ability is definitely declining relatively every couple years as the US military becomes more woke. but there's still enough trigger pullers and enough hardware build out to take out RUS in conventional conflict. defense budget is 700 billion a year and US can still count on maybe 1 million flyover state white guys to throw their lives away on the hostile empire that hates them.

    less sure combined EU NATO forces prior to 2022 could do that. possible, with all of them fighting together. they've declined in ability to fight wars greatly, and are soft, under trained, and under staffed. UK and France ran out of bombs and missiles in 2 weeks against Libya. after RUS invaded UKR, they seem more interested in that 2% of GDP defense spending.

    real question is whether US could deter CHI beyond 2030, and i'm thinking, that's increasingly less likely. US Navy will be matched by then, CHI may have better missiles and certainly more missiles. combined RUS and CHI conventional forces probably superior to US forces by 2030s.

    checking out West Point as a recruit but deciding not to become a US Army cadet was the single best decision i ever made in my life. ha. and i thought i had missed all the interesting stuff since i showed up in a West Point barracks a couple years after the Cold War ended. for reference, there were already neocon professors at West Point like Fred Kagan talking nonsense to the cadets when i was there in the early 90s.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  239. @Ron Unz
    @Barbarossa


    As others have said as well, I wouldn’t count on Russia having lots of those laying about. It seems more plausible to me that they have a few operational and can project some force with them, but would be completely unable to use them to any devastating advantage...If it came to a hot war with Russia, I would tend to believe that they would be playing hardball since Russian regime change would be such a Pentagon/ Neo-con wet dream.
     
    Well, at least we (apparently) know that some of the hypersonics exist and they work. My impression is that just a few of them would be enough to sink an American carrier, which would have gigantic international geostrategic impact.

    And couldn't a relatively small number of those missiles destroy our NATO military airbases? I also have the strong impression that Russian air defense systems are much better than American ones, which is why countries prefer to buy them. And don't the Russian land forces vastly outnumber NATO's greatly diminished numbers?

    I think there's a 0% chance that Putin wants a war with NATO in Europe, but if he did, I'd guess he'd have the clear initial advantage.

    Again, I claim ZERO expertise in these military issues, but this is the impression I've been getting from reading the views of those who apparently do.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Barbarossa, @Wokechoke, @prime noticer, @SimplePseudonymicHandle

    my take is that the RUS military is set up as a deterrent force to discourage US aggression. this isn’t the Soviet Union days and RUS is aware of that. they have a lower budget and a smaller force, so they’ve arranged their units accordingly. they can’t compete in all areas, so they maximized funding, engineering, and defense buildout for the things that are best for stand off capability.

    in short, that’s mainly missile technology, where RUS stuff is definitely better than the US inventory in certain areas. they have some improvements over US tech in other areas, but missiles is where they put most of their effort. RUS and CHI have deliberately put tons of effort into hypersonic missiles as a deterrent tech, while the Pentagon has back burnered that stuff, as it’s less important for their ‘conquering third world countries’ military agenda, where having carriers matters more. RUS also has better AA missiles than the US, but then again, they’ve had better AA missiles than the US since the S-75 in 1957. so this is not new.

    RUS is behind the US in plenty of other techs and build outs, but that’s ok, because this is not about invading a dozen countries and maintaining 100 bases around the world. they don’t need a 300 ship surface fleet. having 60 nuclear submarines and those ballistic missile subs is a lot more important. having thousands of ICBM with MIRVs as a deterrent is much more important than having the same amount of armor as NATO. RUS has allowed their army units to lag behind their air force, submarine, and missile units, because the army is the least important branch here for deterrent.

    RUS definitely DOES NOT have the overall conventional advantage over NATO. no way. they do have better missiles though, which is the way they hope to stave off aggression. RUS and CHI both aim to have missiles that can hit US carriers without being stopped. also by the way, without the complete random blind luck of Elon Musk and SpaceX, RUS would have much better space rockets than the US, and be able to get people into space while the US would be stuck on the ground. they now control the ISS, and the non-SpaceX US contractors are dependent on RUS rockets.

    that’s against the combined forces of NATO though (mainly the US really). the last month, some people are starting to get the idea that RUS could not even take on Poland and other crazy ideas like this, when in reality, RUS would roll over France or Germany or the UK separately no problem. they’d sink their navy in a week, high altitude bomb and missile their cities into rubble, unleash their drones which they mostly aren’t using against UKR, deploy satellite war against western spy sats, and artillery and tank them into submission.

    • Agree: Barbarossa
  240. @Mr. Hack
    @Dmitry


    The most important thing in the war, is the equipment used.
     
    What war have you been watching? If there's one theme running throughout this war, acknowledged internationally, is that the Ukrainian side has up until now been winning the war on the heart and heroism of the Ukrainian side. The better weaponry of the Russian side has not been able to bring this war to a conclusion in any of the shorter predicted timeframes of this war. Very often this superior Russian weaponry has been captured by the Ukrainian side, repaired, and put back onto the battlefield used against the former owners of this equipment.

    Replies: @Beckow

    too bad that Ukraine wasn’t able to push trough NATO membership much sooner

    Too bad, we could have had the war sooner. There is real cognitive dissonance among Ukie positions: on the one hand they scream that Ukraine in NATO was ‘Russian propaganda’, an excuse and a lie. On the other hand they say what you say: sooner the better, haha… How do you expect people to take you seriously? Most serious, intelligent people understand that Kiev in NATO was a declaration of war on Russia. Most of the world outside of the West is saying it – you can even find articles in NY Times talking about it. Yoi guys need to get your story straight.

    Watch the Sunday CNN International show w Zelensky and some guy named Fareed. By the way, Zelensky also said that he asked for what you are saying: an immediate NATO membership. He is all over the map, a clown really, not a serious person. I would give him an Oscar for the best supporting role, not a Nobel pin. But he may get both.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow


    Yoi guys need to get your story straight.
     
    You need to get your story straight. You mentioned that Zelensky was informed earlier that Ukraine would never become a member state within NATO. Still waiting to read about that one - in other words where's a citation to this?...

    Replies: @Beckow

  241. @Barbarossa
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms


    There are a lot of anti-PRC media obviously, Epoch Times (Falun Gong) is basically the mirror-image of Xinhua.
     
    Epoch Times kind of cracks me up. They are marketed toward salt of the Earth conservative US folks fed up with shit-lib media, and they do put out some decent mass market material in that regard. Someone signed me up for a free trial subscription and it started coming in the mail. I was very puzzled by their hatred with the burning passion of 10,000 suns for the CCP, way more than is normal in the American press. I also picked up these constant references to the Falun Gong and Shen Yun. Very strange, I thought, as who cares about such things much in the US?

    It all made sense as I looked up who was putting it out.

    My parents subscribe to it, and I advise them to treat it as the propaganda organ it is, when it comes to their China stance. NYT or Epoch Times can be all fine and dandy if one is filtering it critically.

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Yes, Epoch Times in US is largely in line with Fox. But in Germany is in line with AfD, which is not very anti-CCP,

    In September 2017, the German edition, The Epoch Times Deutschland, which became Web-only in 2012, was described by online magazine The China File as aligned with the German far-right, and attractive to supporters of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and the anti-immigrant group Pegida.[4]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times#Editorial_stance

    There’s also segment of lefty whites/Jews who are into Falun Gong, AaronB might want to look into it.

    The founder Li Hongzhi is a master PUA really, he told followers that they will save money by not needing to go to the doctor, thereby taking advantage of Chinese inclination for acquisitiveness.

  242. @utu
    @Brás Cubas

    Not surprising at all. The belief formation created by covid disinformation operation for and by covid deniers and anti-vaxxers appealed toand enhanced non-conformism, opposition to government and complete distrust of MSM narratives. If you end up believing that TPTB represented by the MSM and the government want to take your rights and want you to be infertile, to have brain nano implants delivered or to be dead by vaccination certainly you are not going to believe anything else flowing from the MSM. So when Russia and Putin are bad in the MSM then the deplorable rabble will believe the opposite and will support Putin seeing him as one of them who also fights TPTB who stand behind it all. Not much prodding is needed to get on the pro Kremlin path.

    The covid disinformation operation was run from the very beginning from Lubyanka. Look at operatives like Mike Whitney or Israel Shamir who were producing themselves at TUR. Interestingly Ron Unz did not recognize the utility of that disinformation until much later though he admired effectiveness of Andrew Anglin disinformation efforts and persisted within the orthodox interpretation of the pandemic while developing his own disinformation theory of covid origin that predictably blamed the US and exonerated China which however hinged on the assumption that the virus was real and the mortality was high justifying the countermeasures which put him at odds with Kremlin based covid disinformation represented by Mike Whitney who among others was targeting the libertarian nut jobs.

    Ron Unz wanted to help China very much but did not realize that Lubyanka people subcontracted by Beijing knew much better how to go about it. They drove the argument about covid to the ad absurdum point while Ron Unz approach was the old fashion rational cause-and-effect narrative. They succeeded while his theory did not get traction. But he did not make the same mistake when it came to Ukraine. He was 100% with Kremlin from the day one. Mike Whitney was recalled from Lubyanka's covid war and thrown on the Ukrainian front.

    The question is how early Lubyanka people recognized that the army of deplorable rabble with their anti-vaxxer media resources could be utilized as channels for propaganda for Putin war with Ukraine. Certainly they used the anti-vaxxers channels to their advantage when the Freedom Convoy was launched in mid January 2022 to paralyze Ottawa's government by which they gained support among the rightoids all over the world. Subsequent Kremlin claims of American biolabs in Ukraine nicely clinched anti-vaxxers with Putin cause of subjugating Ukraine as Kremlin propaganda about the neo-Nazis in Ukraine was ineffective among the rightoids who often entertain sympathies for the real Nazis. "Nazi' is not a derogatory power word for them but 'fauci' and 'biolab' are.

    Replies: @Ron Unz, @Brás Cubas, @Yellowface Anon

    The covid disinformation operation was run from the very beginning from Lubyanka. Look at operatives like Mike Whitney or Israel Shamir who were producing themselves at TUR.

    Actually, you’re forgetting to mention that #1 top Flu Hoaxer in America, namely President Donald Trump. I guess that just proves that Russiagate was correct after all, and Trump was being run from Lubyanka all along…

    • LOL: songbird
    • Replies: @A123
    @Ron Unz

    The real policy debate is between:

        • Vaxx-Realists -- those who follow the science and believe in personal choice.
        • Manda-Vaxxers -- authoritarians who deny science and demand everybody receive multiple vaccinations. Even children with essentially no risk must receive the jab.

    President Trump falls in the Vaxx-Realist category. He is old enough to be in the high risk category and has made a personal choice to receive the experimental vaccine. At the same time he is not in favour of broad reaching federal mandates that will force children to be dosed.

     
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E_53czvVgAIQ9yd.jpg
     

    While conceivably "flu-hoaxers" exist, I have never seen one. At this point, everyone should accept that WUHAN-19 exists.

    Shills for BigPharma love misleading terms like "flu-hoaxer" and "anti-vaxx". It is all about intentionally obscuring the science so they can sell more doses. How many mandatory jabs are needed to feed their quarterly profit statements?

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @LondonBob

  243. @Ron Unz
    @German_reader


    The general belief seems to be that Russia would quickly start losing a conventional war against the combined might of NATO, and then probably resort to nuclear means for “de-escalation”.
     
    Maybe. I've never looked into the issue.

    But a huge factor to consider is the total dominance of Western media and propaganda, so that all supposedly "objective" information has to be recalibrated based upon this extremely tilted informational playing-field.

    For example, in late 2019 America was ranked #1 in the world at being able to handle a sudden disease epidemic and Britain #2, with China totally mediocre, but the reality was extremely different.

    https://www.unz.com/runz/ukraine-and-biowarfare-conspiracy-theories/#comment-5226668

    Similarly, the total collapse of our client regime in Afghanistan within just a few days was entirely contrary to all predictions.

    Back a few months ago, I checked with a couple of mainstream policy-analysts I know, and they'd been entirely unaware of Russia's huge advantage in hypersonics, which the MoA blogger has persuasively argued may give Russia outright military superiority.

    So maybe Russia would lose in a conventional war with NATO, but I suspect otherwise.

    Replies: @German_reader, @prime noticer

    with China totally mediocre, but the reality was extremely different.

    Aren’t the Chinese still doing huge lockdowns in some bizarre zero Covid attempt? Not sure imo if that really indicates their system is that efficient and rational.
    Russia seems to have done pretty badly with Corona btw (something admitted even by the former host of thi blog iirc).

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
    @German_reader


    Aren’t the Chinese still doing huge lockdowns in some bizarre zero Covid attempt? Not sure imo if that really indicates their system is that efficient and rational.
     
    I guess you must be some sort of crazy Flu Hoaxer, hardly uncommon on this website. China's response to the Covid outbreak was absolutely outstanding, certainly the best in the world. Despite zero advance warning, they implemented an exceptionally strict lockdown probably a thousand times larger than anything the world had ever seen. As a result, they ended up with just a few thousand deaths and after a couple of months, life was back to normal for almost everyone in the country.

    Meanwhile, America and the rest of the West had lots of advance warning, but implemented very haphazard lockdowns that didn't work, leading to more than a million American deaths plus total disruption of normal life for most of two years.

    Replies: @German_reader

  244. @sudden death
    After watching quite lot of documentaded war carnage from all sides lately, been listening some fitting musics for this unfolding orgy of destruction, maybe anybody here can recommend something similar in mood, no matter the genre or instruments?


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1o7db95gwY

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bbs7e0kDOg

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Dmitry

    For much of the fighting we’ve seen this month, I would assume some kind of comic or clown music would be your choice.

    VDV “invasion” of Kharkov in February 27, many people were watching live. People were saying that it must just be some lost soldiers, driving the city in Tigr and Kamaz. Walking into the city behind Tigrs. And then all Tigrs abandoned some minutes later.

    It’s not matching my Prokofiev romantic music for war.

    I guess Gostomel airport attack in the first day, would have Wagner, “Ride of the Valkyries”

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @Dmitry


    For much of the fighting we’ve seen this month, I would assume some kind of comic or clown music would be your choice.
     
    Killer klownery, just from earthly silovik community instead of distant space:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMP42SoWajQ

  245. @Yellowface Anon
    @Brás Cubas

    My explanation for this is being pro-vaxx tends to see things thru a moralistic lens so that Ukraine's "democracy/little men" must be defended against Russia/Putin at all costs, even if that means WWIII and down the road; being anti-vaxx tends to be cynical, and they either detest whatever the neocon establishment does to increase strife (anti-establishment/realist), think US/Canada should be isolationist (libertarian/conservative), or downright support Russia.

    Replies: @Brás Cubas

    I think your explanation is not completely wrong, but I can’t say it is right because I myself don’t know what goes on here. A superficial analysis would imply that people fighting for their rights against an oppressive State (even if they are partially or completely misguided) would understand the Ukrainians fighting for their country against an oppressive invader.
    As reality belies this hypothesis, another is necessary. Maybe they are just extreme individualists. They can get together in a freedom convoy, but fighting a war would be too much of a collective endeavor for them. (That is closer to your view, I think.)
    Or maybe they are very well informed and know there is no possible victory for Ukraine. (I wouldn’t bet on this one, though.)

  246. sher singh [AKA "Jatt Aryaa"] says:
    @Barbarossa
    @sher singh

    No, didn't mean it in that sense. One sometimes forms a picture in ones head of commenters and I had gotten a garbled idea that Sher Singh was in Europe. I though he had mentioned some electric bike mods he had had done in Stockholm.


    the brain views foreign men as akin to dangerous animals you either stand out or sit out of society

     

    It's hard to argue with that. It's an interesting point of consideration how natural male instincts are sublimated in the modern West. One hardly even sees a man carry himself with pride.

    You would say that whites are inherently wary of "brown masculinity" yet they certainly don't act like it on the policy level. Even normal "good liberals" will often praise diversity for it's own sake, but perhaps this is partly compartmentalization as they will probably actively suppress any "untoward" feelings toward foreigners. There is also the assumption that given exposure to consumerism all non-Westerners will immediately become good libs. They have a hard time understanding the basic mindset of people who have real cultural/ religious devotion.

    Replies: @sher singh

    Sher Singh is my pc account this is my phone.
    I mean look at their actions like forcing sex Ed on brown youth.

    They support brown liberal masculinity & white liberal masculinity. Whereby, they bet that the patronage & sinecures make up for the sublimated male instincts.

    We wouldn’t be the first to find our elite effeminate nor the last I assume. Not the Khalsa obviously.

    I did have an ebike before, but not in Stockholm lol. I think everyone understands power, and religions are institutions. Libs stopped critiquing Islam after Charlie Hebdo for example.

    Ultimately read point 9 please search personal conviction https://www.sikhphilosophy.net/threads/the-sant-sipahi-tradition-flows-from-guru-nanak-himself.36543/

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @sher singh

    I thought that it was probably the same person but wasn't completely sure. Strangely enough, Unz knows it's me across my work PC and my laptop at home.

    In terms of sex-ed, they try to force that stuff down everybody's throats. You are no special case in that regard. Trust me, that's one of the many reasons that we home school our kids. Growing up with farm animals they definitely all know how it works, and sexual matters can all be contextualized by us within a proper family dynamic.

    I agree that effeminate elites are nothing new. Soft living breeds soft people. The difference now is how so many have been rendered effeminate. Unfortunately, the West has few traditions or reasons now to stave off such degenerate impulses. We have as a culture embraced ease as an absolute good. I personally have no issue with suffering or pain for a worthy objective. That makes someone like myself very strange today, while 100 years ago I would have been pretty normal.

    All of those points you linked to are honorable and deserving of respect. I take no issue with them at all, and am glad that there are people in the world who would think of such things seriously. It's a rarity in the world today, but that doesn't make it less worthwhile.

    Replies: @sher singh

  247. @sher singh
    @Barbarossa

    https://twitter.com/nimatavrood/status/1501992460809089033?s=21

    Replies: @Dacian Julien Soros

    Depressing. I thought the Swedes know that some men have vaginas rather than penises.

    • LOL: sher singh, Barbarossa, Pharmakon
  248. @Dmitry
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    I was wondering if Xinhua or People's daily will give a good perspective, of what the party wants officially the population to receive?

    "Xinhua is the largest and most influential media organization in China, as well as the largest news agency as measured by the number of worldwide correspondents.Xinhua is a ministry-level institution subordinate to the State Council and is the highest ranking state media organ in the country alongside the People's Daily." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinhua_News_Agency

    From what I saw, they aren't that interested very in the war in Ukraine, but they are preparing anti-American government positions for it.

    Can you paraphrase on these stories which are the main Xinhua page.
    http://www.news.cn/politics/zywj/2022-03/21/c_1128490381.htm
    http://www.news.cn/politics/fjxzcjgxsd/index.htm
    http://www.news.cn/world/2022-03/21/c_1128489711.htm

    People's Daily website looks very internal focused as I see pictures of tunnels and Chinese sports athletes is their main pictures on the page.
    http://www.people.com.cn/

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Xinhua is bland CCP propaganda and not taken seriously, just like I no longer took you seriously after you said “In Russian culture, there is no dislike of African Americans.”

    You want the takes on AI and cryptography its on Zhihu and Wechat

    乌克兰为何能以小博大,已激战20天:俄乌战争成为人类首次AI战争

    How can Ukraine take on an opponent of a much larger size, fierce fighting already for 20 days: the Russian-Ukrainian war has become the first AI war of mankind

    https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/481468525

    Would I ask you to translate from Russian when there are perfectly good software available? Show some etiquette.

    Go ahead, gossip some more about how Karlin is “not white enough”. Operation Bagration was named after the hero of Battle of Borodino who was a Caucasian.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms


    Xinhua is bland CCP

     

    China is ruled by the CCP. So, only what the CCP thinks, is relevant for international relations.

    I'm sure you can find less bland resources from non-official sources, based on people using VPNs, but the official media for international relations, for the ordinary herd in China, are what I was asking about.

    Russian culture, there is no dislike of African Americans.”
     
    That's just how it is. It's more in the opposite of dislike, African American culture is a fashionable one. It's not the same as saying that African culture is fashionable. Third world culture is not fashionable.

    We're talking about African American, Tupac, Jazz, Will Smith, etc. Not, Africa - Somalia, Senegal, Ethiopia, etc.


    you to translate from Russian when there are perfectly good software available? Show some etiquette
     
    Yes I can paraphrase Russian resources if you asked politely.

    Translation software often reverses the meaning in sentences, so I would avoid it, unless you would just want to understand the general theme or topic.


    , gossip some more about how Karlin is “not white enough”.
     
    I'm sure that there is nothing especially better or worse, to be white, or brown, or yellow, or black.

    I don't dislike that a person is "not white enough". My views are anti-racist. Hopefully nothing is misunderstood. I'm not criticizing Karlin for his ethnicity. I am personally anti-racist and against narrow categorization of people on superficial aspects of their life.

    The funny thing about Karlin's ethnicity/Middle Eastern appearance, is only when he says he is a Russian nationalist, apparently as a Dada performance art. It is the "Black klansman" joke of David Chapelle. The primary focus of Russian nationalists is hatred of people of his racial appearance, with desire to beat them (or even kill them, as seen in many videos of the 2000s, which have traumatized a generation). It's similar to the local version of "white nationalism" movements in the USA, but a lot more violent and quite dispersed over the country for a time.


    Operation Bagration was named after the hero of Battle of Borodino who was a Caucasian.
     
    Yes of course Georgian elite, is contributing many princes and elites in joining to the Russian Empire. Although, there is always tension with the Georgian nobility in the 19th century. In the long term, one of the regions where you can see a car crash of imperialism (and not only of Russian imperialism).

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

  249. @utu
    @Brás Cubas

    Not surprising at all. The belief formation created by covid disinformation operation for and by covid deniers and anti-vaxxers appealed toand enhanced non-conformism, opposition to government and complete distrust of MSM narratives. If you end up believing that TPTB represented by the MSM and the government want to take your rights and want you to be infertile, to have brain nano implants delivered or to be dead by vaccination certainly you are not going to believe anything else flowing from the MSM. So when Russia and Putin are bad in the MSM then the deplorable rabble will believe the opposite and will support Putin seeing him as one of them who also fights TPTB who stand behind it all. Not much prodding is needed to get on the pro Kremlin path.

    The covid disinformation operation was run from the very beginning from Lubyanka. Look at operatives like Mike Whitney or Israel Shamir who were producing themselves at TUR. Interestingly Ron Unz did not recognize the utility of that disinformation until much later though he admired effectiveness of Andrew Anglin disinformation efforts and persisted within the orthodox interpretation of the pandemic while developing his own disinformation theory of covid origin that predictably blamed the US and exonerated China which however hinged on the assumption that the virus was real and the mortality was high justifying the countermeasures which put him at odds with Kremlin based covid disinformation represented by Mike Whitney who among others was targeting the libertarian nut jobs.

    Ron Unz wanted to help China very much but did not realize that Lubyanka people subcontracted by Beijing knew much better how to go about it. They drove the argument about covid to the ad absurdum point while Ron Unz approach was the old fashion rational cause-and-effect narrative. They succeeded while his theory did not get traction. But he did not make the same mistake when it came to Ukraine. He was 100% with Kremlin from the day one. Mike Whitney was recalled from Lubyanka's covid war and thrown on the Ukrainian front.

    The question is how early Lubyanka people recognized that the army of deplorable rabble with their anti-vaxxer media resources could be utilized as channels for propaganda for Putin war with Ukraine. Certainly they used the anti-vaxxers channels to their advantage when the Freedom Convoy was launched in mid January 2022 to paralyze Ottawa's government by which they gained support among the rightoids all over the world. Subsequent Kremlin claims of American biolabs in Ukraine nicely clinched anti-vaxxers with Putin cause of subjugating Ukraine as Kremlin propaganda about the neo-Nazis in Ukraine was ineffective among the rightoids who often entertain sympathies for the real Nazis. "Nazi' is not a derogatory power word for them but 'fauci' and 'biolab' are.

    Replies: @Ron Unz, @Brás Cubas, @Yellowface Anon

    I don’t find your explanation persuasive, but as I told Yellowface I don’t have a strong opinion on this because I don’t understand the phenomenon.
    I find it more persuasive in the specific case of Covid/Vax/etc (though even there I give it less weight than you do). In the case of Covid/Vax ordinary people in North America actively search for information because it’s an issue that has a direct impact on their lives. Thus the odds they will find disinformation from Russia is high.
    I expect it is less so in the case of a distant war which will not affect their lives in the same manner.
    I may be wrong here; after all the war is probably affecting them in indirect ways (price of petrol, bread, etc). Anyway, I made some considerations in my reply to Yellowface, but, as in here, I am not very confident in what I wrote.

  250. @sher singh
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    You follow faggots and expect us to take you seriously?


    I would follow this Chinese vlogger who provides translatable-captions. He lives in Germany and has a German husband. He’s pro-PRC and critical of US and German MSM. And has been fairly neutral on Ukraine conflic
     
    Considering being pro Ukraine then.
    Thulean Friend lives in Sweden btw Barbarossa. The nice POC meme is there to signal to other white people.

    Our children/servants are well behaved. In reality because the brain views foreign men as akin to dangerous animals you either stand out or sit out of society. The difference between lumpenprole and middle class is assertiveness.

    https://razib.substack.com/p/getting-a-sense-of-the-russian-soul?s=r

    Good article where Razib says Ukraine is a 'Russia' wholly in Europe with a soul not split between 2 continents. It's similar to other inter war ethnic nation states while the RF is of an imperial nature.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/090204121504.htm#:~:text=Summary%3A,members%20of%20the%20out%2Dgroup.

    See reference

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Yes I follow a faggot. He has zero content shilling for LGBT so why should I care. That recommendation was for soyboy Dmitry anyways.

    Here’s episode with a MMA fighter about picking up girls in Germany. His wife is AfD voter, family former DDR and probably SS

    • LOL: sher singh
  251. @Ron Unz
    @Dmitry


    Maybe this was the limit for amateur citizens to view distant wars in the 1980s. But, with the internet, the amateur netizens have every day received additionally a flow of hundreds of videos,* hundreds of photos, of the military fighting.
     
    I guess I don't see what useful information can be obtained by watching low-level combat footage on the Internet.

    Many hundreds of thousands of troops are fighting in Ukraine, so obviously both sides will suffer at least some losses. Obviously, the losses of the enemy will be posted on the Internet. What does that prove? Surely, the Allies could have posted videos of destroyed German units during France 1940.

    Admittedly, if the Russians claimed that the Ukrainians had all surrendered without any fighting, the images would prove otherwise. But I think that's about it.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Wokechoke, @songbird

    There’s probably a major imbalance, as Russian soldiers are banned from carrying their cellphones in the field of operations.

  252. @German_reader
    @LondonBob


    I mean in the sense he has had a complete personality change, like after when people have had a stroke.
     
    tbh I stopped taking him seriously during the pandemic (iirc he considered it a deliberate Chinese Communist plot and fantasized about retaliation).

    Replies: @Yevardian

    tbh I stopped taking him seriously during the pandemic

    Yes, along with at least >60% of Unz’s columnists, although we can’t blame Our Benevolent Overlord for that, we saw it across all alternative media. I really opened my eyes to how suggestible practically anyone can be.

    LOL. Some Nazis holed up in a few isolated apartment blocks means that Mariuopol hasn’t fallen.

    I’m getting really tired of this constant Nazi/Ukronazi absolute nonsense, even if you don’t particularly care for the Ukrainian government, this bandying around of ‘Nazi’ everywhere is just totally meaningless. How can one talk of a ‘banderist state’ that simultaneously sponsors sodomite parades, pursues neoliberal economic policies (as far as any economic plan was pursued at all), hosts large numbers of pajeet and African students, and has a Western cargo-cult? Godwin’s law isn’t any less stupid when rightoids use it.

    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
    @Yevardian

    Sure, the Nazis are not fully in charge. That's why it is officially a police operation as the Zelensky regime is doing nothing to eradicate the Nazis but is in fact promoting them and incorporating them into military and government institutions and enforcing their anti-Russian chauvinistic policies.

    , @James Forrestal
    @Yevardian


    I’m getting really tired of this constant Nazi/Ukronazi absolute nonsense, even if you don’t particularly care for the Ukrainian government, this bandying around of ‘Nazi’ everywhere is just totally meaningless. How can one talk of a ‘banderist state’ that simultaneously sponsors sodomite parades, pursues neoliberal economic policies (as far as any economic plan was pursued at all), hosts large numbers of pajeet and African students, and has a Western cargo-cult? Godwin’s law isn’t any less stupid when rightoids use it.
     
    This whole focus on superficial use displays of symbology and professed (or assumed) ideology over actual systems analysis is a distraction. A dead end. Just look at antifa -- antifags prominently display anarchocommunist symbols, and often parrot talking points consonant with that symbology... but their role within the system is clearly to act as the plausibly-deniable, irregular secret police of the neoliberal establishment, attacking and suppressing dissidents/ heretics. Which aspect is more important in describing them? Even if many of the rank and file members of these groups are "sincere" neo-Bolsheviks... from the 40,000 foot view, it doesn't matter. They're tools. Many "moderate democratic rebels" are probably sincere Salafists, too. But in the big picture, they're still fighting for Israel/ ZOG.

    And Azov? Sure, they often utilize national socialist-related symbology -- but they're literally the private army of a semitic plutocrat [Kolomoisky], fighting (as you pointed out) for globohomo.

    You can tell the ukronazi/ Banderite stuff is a rhetorical trap by its total ineffectiveness. Refer to the Ukrainian side as "dem ebil not-sees," and the neocons/ mainstream narrative promoters just shrug it off. They don't care. Call it the "Kolomoisky/ Zelensky regime," and it's "Oy vey! You can't say that!"

    Muh "Ukrainian naught-sees" is basically DR3 (Dems R da Real "Racists"] for Russians. Reinforce the other side's narrative frame, while attempting to oppose their specific argument. Never works. One of the reasons that it's ineffective is the differences between the histories and current year myths of "Good War"/ Holocaustianity vs. "Great Patriotic War" -- which is the same reason that the Russians will stick with it.

    A little background: it's important to remember that all of the current major powers* derive the moral legitimacy of their rule from WW2 narrative -- muh "Good War"/ Holocaustianity in US/ Europe, muh "Great Patriotic War" in Russia (and the USSR before that). Even China -- the "Rape of Nanking" serves as their version of Auschwitz, with Chinese playing the role of Jews, and Japanese standing in for Germans. The governments of ALL of these countries base a large part of their current "founding myths" on the hegemonic narrative of WW2. ["Myth" in this context refers entirely to the social role/ instrumental purpose of that narrative; its historicity/ empirical basis is is almost entirely irrelevant from this standpoint] When they want to say "Ultimate evil bad guy," they pretty much have to say "not-see" -- it's baked into the cake. But the connotations/ implications of that trope are not exactly the same everywhere in the world.

    How this rhetoric works is perhaps best illustrated by the notorious T-shirt slogan once publicly displayed by Kolomoisky [Zelensky's Israeli/ Cypriot/ Ukrainian oligarch boss] back in 2014, shortly after the coup -- it's pretty obvious that he's deliberately inviting this kind of "Look -- Banderite Hitlerites!" response from the Russians:

    https://i.postimg.cc/VLz24cvW/Zhidobanderas-Kolomoiski-t-Shirt.jpg

    This seems like a reasonable analysis**, though from an obviously pro-Maidan perspective [See also Is this Man the Most Powerful Jew in the World? in Haaretz.]:

    ...the image on the T-shirt represents a fusion of the Ukrainian national symbol, the trident, and a menorah.

    If you read it in Russian, it’s zhidobandera-or “kike-Bandera.” If you read it in Ukrainian, it’s zhydobandera-or “Jew-Bandera.”

    Kolomoisky is claiming that ethnic Ukrainians and Jewish Ukrainians have a common cause in today’s Ukraine and that that cause... is deserving of Jewish support. [i.e. he's lending some "semitic supreme victimhood" to anti-Russian Ukrainians]

    Kolomoisky is implicitly accusing Putin of being both "anti-Semitic" and "anti-Ukrainian." The term zhidobandera reverberates with the interwar "anti-Semitic" notion of zhidokomuna [Russian equivalent of judeobolshevism -- i.e. implies that "Banderite" is an anti-Ukrainianitic canard]

    Third, in the manner of gays and African-Americans, who have appropriated such terms as “fag,” “queer,” and “nigger,” in order to drain them of their offensive content and turn them against "homophobes" and "racists," so, too, Kolomoisky is appropriating the "offensive" Russian zhid and the "pejorative" term, Bandera, [Meh. It's more of an attempt at self-victimization than appropriation. Along the same lines, he also chose to name his short-lived "Ukrainian nationalist" party "UKROP" -- a derogatory Russian term for Ukrainians.]

    Also note this: ...the OUN closely resembled the Algerian National Liberation Front, the Palestine Liberation Organization, and the Jewish Irgun or “Stern Gang,” while Bandera was the Ukrainian version of Ahmed Ben Bella, Yasir Arafat, Menachem Begin, or Avraham Stern

    So he's targeting jewish and Ukrainian audiences in trying to associate Ukrainian nationalism with jewish victimhood [and Revisionist Zionist terrorism]. What's the message to Russians?

    Whatever you think of the reasons for the German invasion of the USSR -- or the German/ Soviet invasion of Poland -- it's indisputable that many millions of Russians/ Soviets died in the war. Hard to convince a Russian that the "Great Patriotic War" was entirely about semitic victimhood. So to Russians [and perhaps Poles?], "Banderite" is basically a synonym for ebil not-see/ Hitlerite/ fascist and "anti-semite."

    But in America? Everyone knows muh SIX MILLION, but few know how many Americans died in WW2. And "Banderite?" Yeah that's a big "Huh?" Totally meaningless. And calling the Kolomoisky/ Zelensky regime "ebil not-sees?" Since the earlier "We had to crush the evil Japs after their sneak attack" and "stop the evil Hitler from taking over the world" narratives of the "Good War" have been completely displaced by one entirely focused on semitic victimhood, this comes across to most Americans as nonsensical: "Wut? You know their president is a jew, right?" And it's more than a little reminiscent of the idiotic GOP line that Soros is somehow really a secret agent still diligently working for Hitler 77 years after the end of WW2 -- which makes it an "antisemitic conspiracy theory," perhaps even a "canard."

    MOTs in Palestine have noted that the Kolomoisky/ Zelensky regime might be pushing the "Ukrainians are the REAL jews!" and "Russians are the REAL not-sees!" lines just a little bit too hard for their taste:

    Rather than stir Israel’s leaders and legislators to action and solidarity, the heavy Holocaust comparisons – from saying Moscow is planning a “final solution for the Ukrainian question” to saying that Israel should save Ukrainians like Ukrainian Righteous Among the Nations saved Jews – drew more focus from its audience, which criticized its inappropriateness, than Zelensky’s appeal for weapons.

    It's not surprising that there's some pushback -- what's more notable is the complete lack of kvetching by ZOG neocons about this egregious "Holocaust victimhood appropriation" on behalf of known "Not-see collaborator goyim." Since WW2, toxic semitism has always incorporated major elements of Ukrainophobia. But anti-Cossackism even deeper roots in the semitic community. What do Cossacks have to do with Ukraine? Just look at the name of the company someone mentioned farther up the thread -- "Motor Sich." What's a "sich again? Ah -- as in Zaporozhian Sich. See also Cossack Hetmanate -- and note that the short-lived post-Brest-Livosk Ukrainian state was often called the "Second Hetmanate." This chapter from a book published in 2018 is a pretty good example of typical jewish attitudes toward Cossacks and Ukrainians: set in the 1917-21 period in the Ukraine, it's wall-to-wall atrocity propaganda, with Cossacks and Ukrainians more or less interchangeable as the primary villains. In other words, in response to this rabbi's recent question "Is Ukraine Amalek?" -- many MOTs would answer "Yes."

    But how about Zelensky in particular? His oft-repeated professions of "love" for the Ukrainian goyim must be totally sincere, right? How does Zelensky personally feel about the Cossack goyim? Let's look at a famous dance routine of his, entitled Козаки [Cossacks]. I see. It's not "love" for Ukrainians -- it's hatred of Russians.

    A related point -- Putin claimed that ranting about "greater Russian nationalism/ chauvinism" was a common trope in early Bolshevism, particularly in the works of Lenin and Trotsky, and that they supported Ukrainian nationalism as a way to attack the majority population. If you do a quick search on marxists.org, it looks like that checks out. The obvious implication is that ZOG is utilizing a similar strategy. If you think about it, It's also analogous to the way that slurs like so-called "White goy privilege" are weaponized in the US in the current year. Variations on a theme.

    *Though I suppose if you consider India a major power then there's Bose -- that's Subhas Chandra Bose of the Indian National Army, not the (far better known in the US) Amar Bose of MIT/ sound system fame. Kind of analogous to Bandera and Ukraine if you really think about it...

    **Russian/ Ukrainian speakers please critique

    Replies: @Yevardian

  253. @Dmitry
    @sudden death

    For much of the fighting we've seen this month, I would assume some kind of comic or clown music would be your choice.

    VDV "invasion" of Kharkov in February 27, many people were watching live. People were saying that it must just be some lost soldiers, driving the city in Tigr and Kamaz. Walking into the city behind Tigrs. And then all Tigrs abandoned some minutes later.

    It's not matching my Prokofiev romantic music for war.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5QzroijYfY

    I guess Gostomel airport attack in the first day, would have Wagner, "Ride of the Valkyries"

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1505539875105345537

    Replies: @sudden death

    For much of the fighting we’ve seen this month, I would assume some kind of comic or clown music would be your choice.

    Killer klownery, just from earthly silovik community instead of distant space:

  254. Can a hypersonic sink an aircraft carrier or not.
    Is gay the future or not.
    Seems to be the main question.
    How glorious it would be to find the gay fleet on the bottom of the sea.

  255. @Ron Unz
    @German_reader


    The general belief seems to be that Russia would quickly start losing a conventional war against the combined might of NATO, and then probably resort to nuclear means for “de-escalation”.
     
    Maybe. I've never looked into the issue.

    But a huge factor to consider is the total dominance of Western media and propaganda, so that all supposedly "objective" information has to be recalibrated based upon this extremely tilted informational playing-field.

    For example, in late 2019 America was ranked #1 in the world at being able to handle a sudden disease epidemic and Britain #2, with China totally mediocre, but the reality was extremely different.

    https://www.unz.com/runz/ukraine-and-biowarfare-conspiracy-theories/#comment-5226668

    Similarly, the total collapse of our client regime in Afghanistan within just a few days was entirely contrary to all predictions.

    Back a few months ago, I checked with a couple of mainstream policy-analysts I know, and they'd been entirely unaware of Russia's huge advantage in hypersonics, which the MoA blogger has persuasively argued may give Russia outright military superiority.

    So maybe Russia would lose in a conventional war with NATO, but I suspect otherwise.

    Replies: @German_reader, @prime noticer

    US force ability is definitely declining relatively every couple years as the US military becomes more woke. but there’s still enough trigger pullers and enough hardware build out to take out RUS in conventional conflict. defense budget is 700 billion a year and US can still count on maybe 1 million flyover state white guys to throw their lives away on the hostile empire that hates them.

    less sure combined EU NATO forces prior to 2022 could do that. possible, with all of them fighting together. they’ve declined in ability to fight wars greatly, and are soft, under trained, and under staffed. UK and France ran out of bombs and missiles in 2 weeks against Libya. after RUS invaded UKR, they seem more interested in that 2% of GDP defense spending.

    real question is whether US could deter CHI beyond 2030, and i’m thinking, that’s increasingly less likely. US Navy will be matched by then, CHI may have better missiles and certainly more missiles. combined RUS and CHI conventional forces probably superior to US forces by 2030s.

    checking out West Point as a recruit but deciding not to become a US Army cadet was the single best decision i ever made in my life. ha. and i thought i had missed all the interesting stuff since i showed up in a West Point barracks a couple years after the Cold War ended. for reference, there were already neocon professors at West Point like Fred Kagan talking nonsense to the cadets when i was there in the early 90s.

    • Agree: sher singh
    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @prime noticer

    I'm sorry you failed entry to West Point.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

  256. @Wokechoke
    @Ron Unz

    Russia could hand over a battery of them Daggers to China in exchange for limitless credit.


    Time is approaching quickly. I would not want to be a deck hand on those carriers.


    On a lighter note, my rule with the BBC is that they get you accurate information, but only two weeks after it’s useful information.

    Mariupol for example has fallen. We are just starting to hear about it now.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Pushilin says that it will take at least a week more to take Mariupol. Strelkov on VK expects even longer.

    Mariupol is an Alamo. Large resources are being devoted to it which gives time for Ukraine to arm, train and move the reserves (trained former soldiers) into place. They are already called up and outnumber the Russian forces. Those Polish planes might turn up then too.

    And Strelkov is laying into the Chechens. He says they went to Mariupol for a photo shoot. I agree. Their real job is to shoot potential mutineers.

    • Replies: @Greasy William
    @Philip Owen


    Large resources are being devoted to it which gives time for Ukraine to arm, train and move the reserves (trained former soldiers) into place
     
    But the Ukrainian forces have already demonstrated that they have 0 tactical mobility. They can cram more troops into the cities but they have no way to retake any ground.

    Those Polish planes might turn up then too
     
    UkAF has mostly just been target practice for Russian air defense so far. I don't think more aircraft will do Ukraine much good.

    Pushilin says that it will take at least a week more to take Mariupol. Strelkov on VK expects even longer.
     
    The Ukrainian resistance really has been heroic. I am confident that Ukraine will maintain Kiev and it's independence and while that is a great achievement, it's not really a victory anymore than the Winter War was a victory for Finland. I think Russia will keep 90%+ of the territory it has captured so far, plus additional territory that I believe it will capture over the next couple of months. Meanwhile, Ukraine will have to give unofficial commitments to not join the EU and to what kind of armaments they can have. And whereas Russia may be able to force the West to drop the sanctions, I expect the West to contribute next to nothing to rebuilding Ukraine.

    US can still count on maybe 1 million flyover state white guys to throw their lives away on the hostile empire that hates them
     
    No way. The current political divisions in the US would ensure that the US military would immediately disintegrate in the face of substantial casualties. I would even question how politically reliable the special forces units are these days.
    , @Yevardian
    @Philip Owen


    And Strelkov is laying into the Chechens. He says they went to Mariupol for a photo shoot. I agree. Their real job is to shoot potential mutineers.
     
    Yes, the Chechen units (like the ВДВ, the Paratroopers) aren't used for combat operations, their role is as glorified riot police, intimidation, and the like. Ostensibly, they're a part of the main Russian army, but if you read about the subject, you can see how local Chechen police, bureaucracy, military etc, pledge loyalty directly to Kadyrov first, who then in turn pledges his oath of service to Putin personally.
    I don't think I've seen it discussed here in depth, but Chechyna essential function as an autonomous 'vassal kingdom' of Russia has all sorts of uses. Local dissent (Chechyna still has among, if not the, lowest GDP in all Russia) is crushed under 'local' ethnic leadership, using methods (an x-ray photo was 'leaked' a while ago of a local Chechen activist 'sitting' on a glass bottle) that elsewhere, even in Russia, couldn't be used without serious outcry or trigger overwhelming disgust.

    And of course, Chechens and other 'чурка' peoples are widely seen as scary, thuggish, clannish and primitive, such characteristics, though not useful for organised warfare, can be quite effective psychologically, as irregulars.
    Speaking of Chechen, even their language sounds quite impressively brutal [as opposed to mere ear-rape, like Indic languages], it truly sounds like Tolkien's 'Black Speech', full of percussive ejectives, hissing affricates and deep glottalised consonants). I was studying a grammar of Chechen a while ago, just from curiosity, its fun to hear such sounds come from yourself.

    But yes, in general, funny to see ethno-nationalist takes on the Ukraine invasion when hugely disprortiononate number of Rusisan troops are coming from the Caucaus Republics and various other poor minorities.
    Also ironic, that due to chance events of history, Ukraine only declared independence from a future Russian federation, due to total confusion of Kryuchkov's half-arsed August 1991 Coup, with Communist apparatchiks who had suppressed Ukrainian dialects for decades, suddenly being inspired by mostly local Galician 'nationalism', and embracing the same activists they had persecuted for decades. It was so sudden that even US Leadership was stunned, and George Baker (iirc) had to be heavily pushed to recognise Ukrainian independence, despite deep personal misgivings regarding Ukraine's existing borders being potential future conflicts (touche).

    Meanwhile peoples with deeply alien cultures like Chechens or Ingush were ruthlessly crushed, whilst completely fake states like Belarus, with significant industry, were nonchalantly let go, because of a differing legal fiction.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  257. Don’t believe the hype around Russia’s hypersonic Kinzhal missile

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @utu

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-confirms-russia-used-hypersonic-missile-in-ukraine-its-almost-impossible-to-stop-it/ar-AAVlfbn

    Well if the Russians didn't use a hypersonic the U.S. wants us to think they did. I suppose it could be rationalized that it increases domestic fear and loathing of Russia if a calculate lie to go along with the Russian line. Or it is just confirmation that the Russians are telling the truth.

    Replies: @utu

  258. @prime noticer
    @Ron Unz

    US force ability is definitely declining relatively every couple years as the US military becomes more woke. but there's still enough trigger pullers and enough hardware build out to take out RUS in conventional conflict. defense budget is 700 billion a year and US can still count on maybe 1 million flyover state white guys to throw their lives away on the hostile empire that hates them.

    less sure combined EU NATO forces prior to 2022 could do that. possible, with all of them fighting together. they've declined in ability to fight wars greatly, and are soft, under trained, and under staffed. UK and France ran out of bombs and missiles in 2 weeks against Libya. after RUS invaded UKR, they seem more interested in that 2% of GDP defense spending.

    real question is whether US could deter CHI beyond 2030, and i'm thinking, that's increasingly less likely. US Navy will be matched by then, CHI may have better missiles and certainly more missiles. combined RUS and CHI conventional forces probably superior to US forces by 2030s.

    checking out West Point as a recruit but deciding not to become a US Army cadet was the single best decision i ever made in my life. ha. and i thought i had missed all the interesting stuff since i showed up in a West Point barracks a couple years after the Cold War ended. for reference, there were already neocon professors at West Point like Fred Kagan talking nonsense to the cadets when i was there in the early 90s.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    I’m sorry you failed entry to West Point.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Why so rudely trolling these days? I used to regard your commentary as respectably interesting, but you've seemingly become a mirror image of AK. Too bad for the both of you.

  259. Is it true, what Trump says, that Putin is constantly using the N-word?

  260. @Triteleia Laxa
    @prime noticer

    I'm sorry you failed entry to West Point.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    Why so rudely trolling these days? I used to regard your commentary as respectably interesting, but you’ve seemingly become a mirror image of AK. Too bad for the both of you.

  261. @Philip Owen
    @Wokechoke

    Pushilin says that it will take at least a week more to take Mariupol. Strelkov on VK expects even longer.

    Mariupol is an Alamo. Large resources are being devoted to it which gives time for Ukraine to arm, train and move the reserves (trained former soldiers) into place. They are already called up and outnumber the Russian forces. Those Polish planes might turn up then too.

    And Strelkov is laying into the Chechens. He says they went to Mariupol for a photo shoot. I agree. Their real job is to shoot potential mutineers.

    Replies: @Greasy William, @Yevardian

    Large resources are being devoted to it which gives time for Ukraine to arm, train and move the reserves (trained former soldiers) into place

    But the Ukrainian forces have already demonstrated that they have 0 tactical mobility. They can cram more troops into the cities but they have no way to retake any ground.

    Those Polish planes might turn up then too

    UkAF has mostly just been target practice for Russian air defense so far. I don’t think more aircraft will do Ukraine much good.

    Pushilin says that it will take at least a week more to take Mariupol. Strelkov on VK expects even longer.

    The Ukrainian resistance really has been heroic. I am confident that Ukraine will maintain Kiev and it’s independence and while that is a great achievement, it’s not really a victory anymore than the Winter War was a victory for Finland. I think Russia will keep 90%+ of the territory it has captured so far, plus additional territory that I believe it will capture over the next couple of months. Meanwhile, Ukraine will have to give unofficial commitments to not join the EU and to what kind of armaments they can have. And whereas Russia may be able to force the West to drop the sanctions, I expect the West to contribute next to nothing to rebuilding Ukraine.

    US can still count on maybe 1 million flyover state white guys to throw their lives away on the hostile empire that hates them

    No way. The current political divisions in the US would ensure that the US military would immediately disintegrate in the face of substantial casualties. I would even question how politically reliable the special forces units are these days.

    • Disagree: sher singh
  262. @Philip Owen
    @Wokechoke

    Pushilin says that it will take at least a week more to take Mariupol. Strelkov on VK expects even longer.

    Mariupol is an Alamo. Large resources are being devoted to it which gives time for Ukraine to arm, train and move the reserves (trained former soldiers) into place. They are already called up and outnumber the Russian forces. Those Polish planes might turn up then too.

    And Strelkov is laying into the Chechens. He says they went to Mariupol for a photo shoot. I agree. Their real job is to shoot potential mutineers.

    Replies: @Greasy William, @Yevardian

    And Strelkov is laying into the Chechens. He says they went to Mariupol for a photo shoot. I agree. Their real job is to shoot potential mutineers.

    Yes, the Chechen units (like the ВДВ, the Paratroopers) aren’t used for combat operations, their role is as glorified riot police, intimidation, and the like. Ostensibly, they’re a part of the main Russian army, but if you read about the subject, you can see how local Chechen police, bureaucracy, military etc, pledge loyalty directly to Kadyrov first, who then in turn pledges his oath of service to Putin personally.
    I don’t think I’ve seen it discussed here in depth, but Chechyna essential function as an autonomous ‘vassal kingdom’ of Russia has all sorts of uses. Local dissent (Chechyna still has among, if not the, lowest GDP in all Russia) is crushed under ‘local’ ethnic leadership, using methods (an x-ray photo was ‘leaked’ a while ago of a local Chechen activist ‘sitting’ on a glass bottle) that elsewhere, even in Russia, couldn’t be used without serious outcry or trigger overwhelming disgust.

    And of course, Chechens and other ‘чурка’ peoples are widely seen as scary, thuggish, clannish and primitive, such characteristics, though not useful for organised warfare, can be quite effective psychologically, as irregulars.
    Speaking of Chechen, even their language sounds quite impressively brutal [as opposed to mere ear-rape, like Indic languages], it truly sounds like Tolkien’s ‘Black Speech’, full of percussive ejectives, hissing affricates and deep glottalised consonants). I was studying a grammar of Chechen a while ago, just from curiosity, its fun to hear such sounds come from yourself.

    But yes, in general, funny to see ethno-nationalist takes on the Ukraine invasion when hugely disprortiononate number of Rusisan troops are coming from the Caucaus Republics and various other poor minorities.
    Also ironic, that due to chance events of history, Ukraine only declared independence from a future Russian federation, due to total confusion of Kryuchkov’s half-arsed August 1991 Coup, with Communist apparatchiks who had suppressed Ukrainian dialects for decades, suddenly being inspired by mostly local Galician ‘nationalism’, and embracing the same activists they had persecuted for decades. It was so sudden that even US Leadership was stunned, and George Baker (iirc) had to be heavily pushed to recognise Ukrainian independence, despite deep personal misgivings regarding Ukraine’s existing borders being potential future conflicts (touche).

    Meanwhile peoples with deeply alien cultures like Chechens or Ingush were ruthlessly crushed, whilst completely fake states like Belarus, with significant industry, were nonchalantly let go, because of a differing legal fiction.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Yevardian


    Ukraine invasion when hugely disprortiononate number of Rusisan troops are coming from the Caucaus Republics and various other poor minorities.

     

    If you remember Anon4/Bashibuzuk, who was complaining in the forum about wealthy "unpatriotic Armenian businessmen" that had annoying him in Moscow.

    But of course, there are plenty working class Armenians in other places.

    When you search the social networks, I found there e.g. 18 year old Armenian from a poor region, who have ended signing contracts, died in Ukraine.
    https://vk.com/wall-194857754_193916


    (like the ВДВ, the

     

    They were used for combat, which was part of the problem of the operation planning.

    They are driving in urban areas in BMD-2, BMD-3, BMD-4.

    Disproportionately many have died in the early weeks, which you can see in obituaries, or also the general videos in the internet.

    This is what driving in BMD ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMD-2 ) in an urban area will result with. It is just a metal coffin for urban warfare.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/t6csjo/morning_in_hostomel_nsfw/


    Chechen units aren’t used for combat operations,
     
    Steve Sailer even posted about it. He surprisingly knows a lot about the postsoviet space, not only golf lawns in California.

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/ramzan-kadyrov-as-the-jerry-bruckheimer-of-the-caucasus/
  263. All other things being equal, I wonder if it would, in theory, be easier to de-extinct a monotreme or marsupial than to do the same with a placental mammal. Or, perhaps, a bird would be easier still?

  264. @utu
    Don't believe the hype around Russia's hypersonic Kinzhal missile

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSPoF7IIefU

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-confirms-russia-used-hypersonic-missile-in-ukraine-its-almost-impossible-to-stop-it/ar-AAVlfbn

    Well if the Russians didn’t use a hypersonic the U.S. wants us to think they did. I suppose it could be rationalized that it increases domestic fear and loathing of Russia if a calculate lie to go along with the Russian line. Or it is just confirmation that the Russians are telling the truth.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Barbarossa

    This Kinzhal makes everybody happy. Kremlin is happy because Russians are happy thinking that they got a wunderwaffe and Pentagon is happy because Americans are thinking that Russia has a wunderwaffe and thus it will be happy to give more money for Pentagon ('hypersonic gap') while Pentagon is even more happy knowing it is not a wunderwaffe but a hype.

    Martyanov who was great at hyping Russian military capability was godsend for Pentagon.

    Russians are not telling the truth because Kinzhal is just a modified Iskander missile dropped from a plane and it is hypersonic in the same way as every ballistic missile is hypersonic. It is harder to detect than ground launched missile because it is not launched from the ground. But its velocity is the same as Iskander's plus the velocity of the plane that dropped it. Real hypersonic missiles are something entirely different.

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @A123

  265. @German_reader
    @Ron Unz


    with China totally mediocre, but the reality was extremely different.
     
    Aren't the Chinese still doing huge lockdowns in some bizarre zero Covid attempt? Not sure imo if that really indicates their system is that efficient and rational.
    Russia seems to have done pretty badly with Corona btw (something admitted even by the former host of thi blog iirc).

    Replies: @Ron Unz

    Aren’t the Chinese still doing huge lockdowns in some bizarre zero Covid attempt? Not sure imo if that really indicates their system is that efficient and rational.

    I guess you must be some sort of crazy Flu Hoaxer, hardly uncommon on this website. China’s response to the Covid outbreak was absolutely outstanding, certainly the best in the world. Despite zero advance warning, they implemented an exceptionally strict lockdown probably a thousand times larger than anything the world had ever seen. As a result, they ended up with just a few thousand deaths and after a couple of months, life was back to normal for almost everyone in the country.

    Meanwhile, America and the rest of the West had lots of advance warning, but implemented very haphazard lockdowns that didn’t work, leading to more than a million American deaths plus total disruption of normal life for most of two years.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Ron Unz


    I guess you must be some sort of crazy Flu Hoaxer, hardly uncommon on this website.
     
    Actually no, I'm even triple-vaccinated. But if I understand correctly, China is still doing huge lockdowns TODAY when it's totally clear that there is no prospect at all of eradicating the virus, and imo that's just crazy. I mean, what's the end game in China's strategy here? It can't be anything like buying time until vaccines become widely available, Covid is better understood and treatments have been developed etc. after all (which imo was a rationale for lockdowns that made sense, and I was in favour of lockdowns in 2020...but today?).

    Replies: @Greasy William, @Ron Unz, @Yevardian

  266. German_reader says:
    @Ron Unz
    @German_reader


    Aren’t the Chinese still doing huge lockdowns in some bizarre zero Covid attempt? Not sure imo if that really indicates their system is that efficient and rational.
     
    I guess you must be some sort of crazy Flu Hoaxer, hardly uncommon on this website. China's response to the Covid outbreak was absolutely outstanding, certainly the best in the world. Despite zero advance warning, they implemented an exceptionally strict lockdown probably a thousand times larger than anything the world had ever seen. As a result, they ended up with just a few thousand deaths and after a couple of months, life was back to normal for almost everyone in the country.

    Meanwhile, America and the rest of the West had lots of advance warning, but implemented very haphazard lockdowns that didn't work, leading to more than a million American deaths plus total disruption of normal life for most of two years.

    Replies: @German_reader

    I guess you must be some sort of crazy Flu Hoaxer, hardly uncommon on this website.

    Actually no, I’m even triple-vaccinated. But if I understand correctly, China is still doing huge lockdowns TODAY when it’s totally clear that there is no prospect at all of eradicating the virus, and imo that’s just crazy. I mean, what’s the end game in China’s strategy here? It can’t be anything like buying time until vaccines become widely available, Covid is better understood and treatments have been developed etc. after all (which imo was a rationale for lockdowns that made sense, and I was in favour of lockdowns in 2020…but today?).

    • Replies: @Greasy William
    @German_reader


    (which imo was a rationale for lockdowns that made sense, and I was in favour of lockdowns in 2020…but today?).
     
    I'm not nearly the psycho I used to be, I'm pretty much ashamed of 95% of the stuff I've ever said on here, but I still can't get over the lockdowns. No matter how hard I try, I just have this insatiable desire to get revenge on the left for the lockdowns, the mandates and (especially) the masks.

    Fuck lockdowns.

    Replies: @German_reader

    , @Ron Unz
    @German_reader


    Actually no, I’m even triple-vaccinated. But if I understand correctly, China is still doing huge lockdowns TODAY when it’s totally clear that there is no prospect at all of eradicating the virus, and imo that’s just crazy.
     
    My apologies, there are just so many Flu Hoaxers around here.

    Sure, given that Omicron is so extremely contagious as well as much less dangerous than the other variants, the current lockdowns in China probably aren't cost-effective, and from I've read the government is curtailing them.

    Still, when you compare China's performance with that of any Western government over the last two years it's A or A- versus D- so I'd cut them some slack on the current lockdown issue.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    , @Yevardian
    @German_reader

    Just to put in my local experience, here in Oceania (seemingly spoiling for war with EastAsia and Eurasia), the 'zero-deaths' policy of harsh, decisive lockdowns was proven to have been quite effective, when compared with the nonchalance in Brazil or the US, Europe's vacilitating (combining worst of both worlds).
    Outside of Melbourne (which I think, held the record for world's longest lockdown), life in Australia proceeded almost totally as normal, bars and restaurants remained with near-normal hours, and masks were barely worn at all in many states (Australia is Federal) until quite recently. I actually have to admit I was wrong on this particular issue, as early during the pandemic, I was quite persuaded by what later proved to be libertardian arguments, and was strongly against what I saw as 'totalitarian measures' in suspending ordinary freedoms.

  267. @Barbarossa
    @utu

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-confirms-russia-used-hypersonic-missile-in-ukraine-its-almost-impossible-to-stop-it/ar-AAVlfbn

    Well if the Russians didn't use a hypersonic the U.S. wants us to think they did. I suppose it could be rationalized that it increases domestic fear and loathing of Russia if a calculate lie to go along with the Russian line. Or it is just confirmation that the Russians are telling the truth.

    Replies: @utu

    This Kinzhal makes everybody happy. Kremlin is happy because Russians are happy thinking that they got a wunderwaffe and Pentagon is happy because Americans are thinking that Russia has a wunderwaffe and thus it will be happy to give more money for Pentagon (‘hypersonic gap’) while Pentagon is even more happy knowing it is not a wunderwaffe but a hype.

    Martyanov who was great at hyping Russian military capability was godsend for Pentagon.

    Russians are not telling the truth because Kinzhal is just a modified Iskander missile dropped from a plane and it is hypersonic in the same way as every ballistic missile is hypersonic. It is harder to detect than ground launched missile because it is not launched from the ground. But its velocity is the same as Iskander’s plus the velocity of the plane that dropped it. Real hypersonic missiles are something entirely different.

    • Agree: AP, Philip Owen
    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @utu

    I can see the plausibility of the points there. It's very hard to separate the truth from BS in all this, so I don't get to committed to any one viewpoint.

    I thought it was curious that Biden confirmed the Russian hypersonic strike thereby going further than the Pentagon, but also pooh pooh it as a trivial advance in strike capability. This makes me lean slightly toward the Russian position being truthy since it would seem that Biden should play up the fear factor to justify closing the "hypersonic gap" if that was his objective.

    I guess we will see more as time goes on.

    , @A123
    @utu

    The whole "hypersonic" concept has been oversold. Anything going faster than the speed of sound can be tracked by the hole it leaves in the air.

    There is an incremental gain for "hypersonic" over ballistic. The supercarrier task force will have to operate further from the cost to obtain the time necessary to intercept one. However, the idea that such weapons make carriers easy to kill is simply bogus.

    If supercarriers are obsolete, why is China developing its own Type-004 nuclear powered flat top? The U.S. will have "hypersonic" weapons long before the Type-004 goes to sea.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @songbird, @Emil Nikola Richard

  268. @German_reader
    @Ron Unz


    I guess you must be some sort of crazy Flu Hoaxer, hardly uncommon on this website.
     
    Actually no, I'm even triple-vaccinated. But if I understand correctly, China is still doing huge lockdowns TODAY when it's totally clear that there is no prospect at all of eradicating the virus, and imo that's just crazy. I mean, what's the end game in China's strategy here? It can't be anything like buying time until vaccines become widely available, Covid is better understood and treatments have been developed etc. after all (which imo was a rationale for lockdowns that made sense, and I was in favour of lockdowns in 2020...but today?).

    Replies: @Greasy William, @Ron Unz, @Yevardian

    (which imo was a rationale for lockdowns that made sense, and I was in favour of lockdowns in 2020…but today?).

    I’m not nearly the psycho I used to be, I’m pretty much ashamed of 95% of the stuff I’ve ever said on here, but I still can’t get over the lockdowns. No matter how hard I try, I just have this insatiable desire to get revenge on the left for the lockdowns, the mandates and (especially) the masks.

    Fuck lockdowns.

    • Agree: sher singh, LondonBob
    • LOL: utu
    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Greasy William


    I’m pretty much ashamed of 95% of the stuff I’ve ever said on here
     
    I always appreciated your would/wouldn't bang comments. And good to see you're still alive, when you stopped commenting a few years ago there was concern that you had been arrested for tax fraud or something of the sort and locked away in some dungeon.

    Replies: @Greasy William

  269. @German_reader
    @Ron Unz


    I guess you must be some sort of crazy Flu Hoaxer, hardly uncommon on this website.
     
    Actually no, I'm even triple-vaccinated. But if I understand correctly, China is still doing huge lockdowns TODAY when it's totally clear that there is no prospect at all of eradicating the virus, and imo that's just crazy. I mean, what's the end game in China's strategy here? It can't be anything like buying time until vaccines become widely available, Covid is better understood and treatments have been developed etc. after all (which imo was a rationale for lockdowns that made sense, and I was in favour of lockdowns in 2020...but today?).

    Replies: @Greasy William, @Ron Unz, @Yevardian

    Actually no, I’m even triple-vaccinated. But if I understand correctly, China is still doing huge lockdowns TODAY when it’s totally clear that there is no prospect at all of eradicating the virus, and imo that’s just crazy.

    My apologies, there are just so many Flu Hoaxers around here.

    Sure, given that Omicron is so extremely contagious as well as much less dangerous than the other variants, the current lockdowns in China probably aren’t cost-effective, and from I’ve read the government is curtailing them.

    Still, when you compare China’s performance with that of any Western government over the last two years it’s A or A- versus D- so I’d cut them some slack on the current lockdown issue.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Ron Unz

    The strange thing is that death rate in Hong Kong during Omicron has equaled the worst of the US by capita. This points to natural immunity, of which HK has none, as being an essential component in ameliorating Covid severity in the long term. Put another way it would seem that Omicron is not empirically less severe than other strains, but only relatively so in populations that have a residual existing base of immunity.

    I'm not against the Covid vaccines per se, but they seem pretty "Meh" overall so far, especially in light of all the previous hype.

    Replies: @Ron Unz, @iffen

  270. @German_reader
    @Ron Unz


    I guess you must be some sort of crazy Flu Hoaxer, hardly uncommon on this website.
     
    Actually no, I'm even triple-vaccinated. But if I understand correctly, China is still doing huge lockdowns TODAY when it's totally clear that there is no prospect at all of eradicating the virus, and imo that's just crazy. I mean, what's the end game in China's strategy here? It can't be anything like buying time until vaccines become widely available, Covid is better understood and treatments have been developed etc. after all (which imo was a rationale for lockdowns that made sense, and I was in favour of lockdowns in 2020...but today?).

    Replies: @Greasy William, @Ron Unz, @Yevardian

    Just to put in my local experience, here in Oceania (seemingly spoiling for war with EastAsia and Eurasia), the ‘zero-deaths’ policy of harsh, decisive lockdowns was proven to have been quite effective, when compared with the nonchalance in Brazil or the US, Europe’s vacilitating (combining worst of both worlds).
    Outside of Melbourne (which I think, held the record for world’s longest lockdown), life in Australia proceeded almost totally as normal, bars and restaurants remained with near-normal hours, and masks were barely worn at all in many states (Australia is Federal) until quite recently. I actually have to admit I was wrong on this particular issue, as early during the pandemic, I was quite persuaded by what later proved to be libertardian arguments, and was strongly against what I saw as ‘totalitarian measures’ in suspending ordinary freedoms.

    • LOL: sher singh
  271. @sher singh
    @Barbarossa

    Sher Singh is my pc account this is my phone.
    I mean look at their actions like forcing sex Ed on brown youth.

    They support brown liberal masculinity & white liberal masculinity. Whereby, they bet that the patronage & sinecures make up for the sublimated male instincts.

    We wouldn't be the first to find our elite effeminate nor the last I assume. Not the Khalsa obviously.

    I did have an ebike before, but not in Stockholm lol. I think everyone understands power, and religions are institutions. Libs stopped critiquing Islam after Charlie Hebdo for example.

    Ultimately read point 9 please search personal